A Gentleman's Game of Guile, Subterfuge, and Intrigue (Fin)

[imaginality]

Felicitations, my fine fellows! Though these circumstances we find ourselves in are most regrettable, I consider it indubitable that we shall locate the villainry amongst us and ensure our host's death does not go unavenged.

One of the treacherous cads already reveals himself to us. His uncouth scowls expose his inner rage.

Vote: StrangerCoug

for he contains anger within him.

[imaginality]

My dear Caboose, you seem befuddled. What gives you the idea we are living in the past? Is it not the year 2011? It seems you assume gentlemanly manners and social graces are anachronisms consigned to exist only in bygone eras. Not so! I can assure you that there are at least some men of good breeding and exemplary etiquette even in this modern age.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you did not mean to suggest that your current mode of interaction is merely an unnatural act, a pretense at being a gentleman? For I can see only one conclusion to draw from that.

[imaginality]

TheLonging, I am unfamiliar with the fellow you propose to policy lynch. I would be gratified if you could explain why you consider him unsuitable company for this occasion. Does he hog the buffet? Belch in front of the womenfolk? Utter naught but inanities?

[imaginality]

The reading material you gentleman have seen fit to share with us certainly elucidates the potential agonies we may all suffer if we allow vezokpiraka to remain part of our gathering.

Unvote; vote: vezokpiraka

Is Twistedspoon villainous in your eyes, Hoppster, for his preference for discussing celestial matters and other such frippery rather than actively scumhunting? If so, I would caution that the hour is still early and others amongst us (e.g. StrangerCoug) have been no more committed to genuinely scumhunting as yet. Or is there another reason for suspicion to be cast on Twistedspoon in particular?

[imaginality]

Thus I believed the reasoning to be random

Even despite this?

This vote is not one that I have cast in a random manner.

[imaginality]

EBWOP: Hoppster's post was #41

[imaginality]

If I may interject for a moment here, gentlemen: while vezok has, in the past, shown himself to lack the uprightness and character of a gentleman, is it not premature to

discuss ejecting him

before he has even said anything substantial?

Should we not allow him an opportunity to prove himself?

In my experience, a true gentleman does not allow himself to be so firmly committed to such a policy except in the most extreme of cases.

The two bolded clauses are not mutually exclusive. It does vezokpiraka no harm to re-enter the room and join the discussion to find several of us practising tying the hangman's knot while gazing askance at him. He will still have an opportunity to prove himself.

The prospect of being hanged focuses the mind wonderfully.

And if, perchance, a majority of our company proclaim judgment on vezokpiraka even before he has confirmed our judgment of him, I would regard such widely- and strongly-held opinion to be sufficient evidence that the lynch is a wise one.

On another note, I could not help but note imaginality's noncommittal attempts to sway suspicion from Twisted. While I normally applaud gentlemen being true to their fellows, in this case it caused me to raise my eyebrows in a distinct manner.

To point out that other players had made posts of similar lightness to Twistedspoon's is not to sway suspicion from him but rather to ensure that that particular point is not given undue weight. I was wary of Hoppster's reasons for focusing on one such person if several others could be accused of the same sin.

Now, what is a far better point against the gentleman in question (Twistedspoon) is that he has tangled himself up in his words while attempting to justify his lack of curiosity about Hoppster's explicitly non-random vote. The feebleness and contradictory nature of his explanation is of genuine import, and I await his answer to my question above (in post 59) with great interest.

[imaginality]

My dear Apokalyptika, I trust I have satisfactorily addressed your question, inter alia, in my preceding post?

[imaginality]

First, two unsettled matters:

Twistedspoon has singularly failed to address my question in post 59.

Spoiler: post 59

Thus I believed the reasoning to be random

Even despite this?

This vote is not one that I have cast in a random manner.

As for Apokalyptika's question: I thank you for clarifying your point further, in post 68. I now understand your reason for questioning my earlier post and regard the principle of your suspicion as reasonable, but its practical application in this instance to be excessive. To whit:

Spoiler: post 68

The reading material you gentleman have seen fit to share with us certainly elucidates the potential agonies we may all suffer if we allow vezokpiraka to remain part of our gathering.

Unvote; vote: vezokpiraka

Is Twistedspoon villainous in your eyes, Hoppster, for his preference for discussing celestial matters and other such frippery rather than actively scumhunting?

If so, I would caution that the hour is still early and others amongst us (e.g. StrangerCoug) have been no more committed to genuinely scumhunting as yet.

Or is there another reason for suspicion to be cast on Twistedspoon in particular?

The sentence I have here emphasized is the main focus of my suspicion. Not only do you make rash assumptions regarding the intentions of Sir Hoppster (there is a saying regarding the forming of assumptions, but it is far too crass to mention here) but you also specifically invoke the name of another, namely StrangerCoug. This strikes me as being a tad too emphatic for refuting the basis of a case that, at that time, had not been fully explained by Sir Hoppster.

I agree that putting words into another's mouth is generally a faux pas on occasions such as this. However the 'If' with which I began said paragraph should make it clear I was not assuming, but rather enquiring. I did not see myself as refuting Sir Hoppster's case, but rather seeking to confirm its nature, and check that it was sufficiently weighty to further discuss. And the 'e.g.' in the bolded sentence should make it clear that StrangerCoug's name was not 'specifically invoked' but 'invoked by way of example'.

Now, on to other concerns:

1. kr0b's mere echoing of Apokalyptika's point, in post 69, and his fluff post 71, have alarmed me to a stern degree. He is high on my list of rogues and rapscallions at this point.

2. Feysal's entrance pleases me, as does DemonHybrid. My belly rumbles in warning at inHimshallibe's first posts, but I am unsure why.

3. While vezokpiraka's manner of talking is crude, TheLonging is stretching a point when he says:

Vezok is posting fluff in every single post he's making now.

His iso#2 and iso#6 contain useful material. While still of a low proportion, I am inclined to

Unvote

and

Vote: kr0b

4.

If it really is the year 2011, how did the Duke of Spoon not recognize Sir vezokpiraka's use of the vernacular at the beginning of the game?

[/quote]

The Duke of Spoon had already been at the brandy, I suspect.

[imaginality]

This is most interesting. I am the subject of a vote, it appears, but for what reason that is not to be seen on others? That I cannot tell. I echoed a point?

Perhaps

I simply agreed. And if one is t regard Post #71 as a fluff post, then one must also consider both of kpaca's posts' "fluff posts". Perhaps a special exception is made for myself, or perhaps Imaginality is simply brushing over and not considering the legitimacy of kpaca's posts because the young gentleman has only just arrived to the proceedings. Either way, I find it most peculiar to see Imaginality picking and choosing which posts he perceives as "fluff". Maybe the good sir needs to lay off of his whiskey.

Non-commital language of this type is a scumtell. An honorable gentleman would be able to state with certainty that he simply agreed. A scoundrel who echoed the other fellow's point to save him from the need to think independently and shield him from standing out from the crowd would also like to say with certainty that he simply agreed, but the remaining shreds of his conscience halt his tongue and all he can utter is a stammering, "Per-per-haps, I agreed, maybe; that could be true, right?"

kpaca's next posts will certainly be of interest to me, but in terms of my attitude towards fluff posts, there is no difference between the leniency I have shown towards his opening posts, and my same allowance for your contentless posts iso#0 to iso#2. Your cry of hypocrisy is unfounded.

And you have still yet to make any contribution of note. Suggesting kpaca contributes more, less than a day after he has arrived at our gathering, is hardly the type of incisive scum-hunting that will help us unmask and vanquish the rogues amongst us.

[imaginality]

Whilst this post is, for the most part, of sound reasoning, I find the fact you would seriously try to point out my

sarcastic

use of the word 'perhaps' to be somewhat a decent reason to point your gnarled finger at me to be a farce. Absolute balderdash! Merely trying to solidify your reasons for voting for me.

[bNon-committal[/b] though? Let's look at everyone, shall we good sir? And shall we ponder the committed nature of everybody else's posts throughout this game in accordance to the pre-determined theme?

Were you being sarcastic or well-manneredly non-commital in your use of 'perhaps', sir?

imaginality for the insistence that my use of the word PERHAPS is the most villainous action of the day

Come now, man! Surely you do not mean this in all seriousness? It is a manifest misrespresentation, when I wrote your name on my ballot before you uttered the word.

[imaginality]

My point in post 127, lost somewhat in the broken tag, was that the knave kr0b defended his "Perhaps" both as being sarcastic

and

for being non-commital. For the record, I read it as non-commital rather than sarcastic, and non-commital in a way which is not necessarily down to the theme of our gathering (though I do accept that as a possibility). But I find his defending it on both grounds rather than as one or the other to be questionable. That said, neither this point about his defense of 'perhaps', nor the original use of 'perhaps', are my main concerns about kr0b. Despite his attempt to paint them as such.

At this juncture I would also like to draw my learned companions' attentions to the nature of kr0b's recent posts. In the last few posts he appears to limiting his exertions to attacking his attackers rather than actively hunting for scoundrels. Given the relatively early stage of the pressure on him, this is the mark of a scallywag and rapscallion, concerned to save his own hide, rather than an upstanding citizen who remains calm in the knowledge that he has nothing to hide.

Other notes: I agree with Sirs DemonHybrid and Caboose about Mr Piraka. I feel his intent to hunt villains is genuine.

On a more villainous note, in post 150 kpaca shows an unnatural fondness for sitting on fences, and I feel he would make a fine choice for whom to expel from our gathering.

[imaginality]

This discussion has been at something of a low ebb lately. I admit I myself have been partly to blame, due to spending an excessive amount of time cleaning and refilling my pipe. However, I hope we can all agree to move our efforts forward apace.

I find TwistedSpoon's position an interesting one. While he is certainly displaying an ungentlemanly surliness when pressed to defend himself, if one takes the policy-lynch comments to be a difference of understanding about what is meant by that term, there is little left to the case against him aside from the tone in which he has responded to Hoppster's pressure. And his paranoia regarding Hoppster seems,

prima facie

, more likely to come from a pro-town player than a scoundrel (who might think that, but would hold his tongue rather than admit to such thoughts). However, at heart this appears to be a meta case more so than a scummy-acts-in-this-game case. As such, before proclaiming judgment, I feel it necessary to investigate his writings in other games to see if the claims made by Apokalyptika that his tone in this game is a scumtell are accurate. I shall do so within 24 hours.

I am wary of the StrangerCoug for similar reasons; while not certain, I have the sense he is more active than this as town. Another player to meta. Again, I shall do this before the morrow.

Hoppster has asked a good question of vezokpiraka, and I felt Hoppster was genuine in his focus on TwistedSpoon. However the self-vote alarms me, and seems over-self-conscious, unhelpful and evasive.

I am curious to hear who else you suspect, Hoppster, lest you become tunnelled on one case at the expense of others. Surely you do not feel TwistedSpoon is the sole villain amongst us?

Apokalyptika pleases me with her post 171 and (pending my meta read of TwistedSpoon) her post 223 seems adequate justification for her joining the wagon.

kpaca has done much to redeem himself in my eyes, but kr0b still strikes me as a villain amongst us. To answer Feysal's question:

I admit that some of the points raised against kr0b later on have merit, but I am still confused as to the cause of imaginality's original vote on him. Voting first and providing reasons later does not sound like a good way of seeking villains in our midst, particularly when the best of those reasons only occurred after the original vote.

My original reason was given here:

1. kr0b's mere echoing of Apokalyptika's point, in post 69, and his fluff post 71, have alarmed me to a stern degree. He is high on my list of rogues and rapscallions at this point.

I felt that in 69 kr0b was merely piggybacking Apokalyptika's (reasonable) questions to me, and 71 was pure fluff. At that stage, I felt it reasonable to cast a ballot for those reasons. His subsequent actions strengthened my reasons to suspect him. And I must take issue with you over the appropriateness of that. It's not uncommon for cases, particularly early in the game, to develop further in response to how the accused person responds to the pressure on them. Indeed, I'd venture that it's the rule rather than the exception.

I agree however with your defense of vezokpiraka. I too see him as a good fellow.

Caboose's posts so far fill me with confidence, while inHimshallibe does quite the opposite. I am not quite sure why, but I think my sense is that he is a better calibre of player than his play this game has displayed, so I am concerned by his relative lack of contribution. A third player to meta.

[imaginality]

On my meta reads: I don't meta often (meta me if you want to check that ) but from what I saw, Twistedspoon's posting this game seems more like his town games here and here than this scum game where he comes across as trying harder to play in a pro-town, well-reasoned, more-long-posts (relative to his usual length) way. That leaves me feeling he's likely town here. And wondering what Apokalyptika thinks, following her meta reason for voting him, if she's now had time to check his meta beyond the one game she mentioned.

inHimshallibe also seems more similar to his town play here and here than his scum play here.

Had trouble finding much difference between StrangerCoug's meta as town and scum.

[imaginality]

imaginality: Why use meta this game if you do not do it on a normal basis?

I found myself both richer in time and poorer in in-game reads than is usually the case, and the specific mention Apokalyptika had made of seeing a difference in meta intrigued me sufficiently to divert myself to the pastime.


If I may speak plainly, I feel the set-to between you and Mr Twistedspoon, Esq. is beginning to weary the gathering. I would invite you both to consider again the fact that the other, in all probability, represents no more than one third part of the total substance of villainry amongst us, and to provide an indication of who else you suspect at this point, and for what reason. Please do not delay your response for fear of Twistedspoon copying your reads, for I am confident the rest of us will notice if that eventuates.


To be fair, I shall list my own suspicions: Messrs. kr0b, kpaca, TheLonging and DemonHybrid all raise my hackles at present and I am happy to explain why in due course. Caboose's most recent few posts contrast favourably with his earlier ones (mostly questions, few reads), saving him from inclusion in this shortlist of scummery. The slow pace of the discussion of late hinders strong conclusions being drawn at this point, but I would wager there are at least two of the villains in the above quartet.

[imaginality]

I shall refrain from commenting on Apokalyptika's above point for now, since it was addressed to others, and I am equally interested to hear their thoughts.

[imaginality]

May I present to you, Feysal, and anyone else in search of a wagon, the following person as an alternative for whom we expel today:

kr0b: for merely sheeping Apokalyptika (in 69), trying to deflect onto kpaca (113, also containing the 'perhaps' which, perhaps, became over-analysed), weaselly words (121 - the "mostly of sound reasoning") and poor defense (same post), misrepresentation of my case (125) with an OMGUSsy vote, weirdly stepping in to defend kpaca out of the blue (197).

Mark my words, he is a scoundrel, and we would do well to be rid of him.

[imaginality]

I'd not be sorry if Sir Longing were the one to end up excluded from our gathering. The reread explanation does contrast with the fluff argument to an extent that he looks like a villain inventing explanations for his posts rather than a nobleman giving explanation. I prefer kr0b but will happily support a wagon on Sir Longing if one arises.

Sir Hoppster is pushing the 'town read' point too hard methinks, firstly as Duke Spoon used it to refer to himself and another player rather than himself alone, secondly because scum would have no more reason to call themselves a 'town read' than town would, since scum would hardly read themselves as town.

[imaginality]

Overzealous.

[imaginality]

This discussion wearies me now, and I consider it better that we progress our efforts to rid us of villains than that we lose our enthusiasm for the hunt and allow lacklustreness to give the scoundrels the chance to run amok amongst us.

Therefore, I shall

Unvote; vote: Twistedspoon

to bring this day's debating to a close.

Let us hope that determining the Duke's intentions assists us to draw connections and better read the intent behind today's stances.

[imaginality]

With regard to your point 1, lord_hur, do you consider Sir Hoppster's commenting on the deaths to be as suspicious, when following inHimishallbe's comment, as it might be in isolation? I feel if there is a point to be made here, it is more fairly made against inHimshallibe.

[imaginality]

Something else that caught my eye while I was reading:

Feysal: He brings up a lot of good points, its that simple. Its unfortunate his stance on TS was ignored.

I'm somewhat surprised by this read of myself for good points, considering my vote at the end of yesterday was on kr0b, who ToastyToast replaced.

Of note is that he ranks me equally highly in his esteem, and I was also voting his predecessor. Is this an attempt to ingratiate his way into good standing amongst us and disarm us with charm and flattery?

[imaginality]

These past couple of pages have been stodgily unappetising and difficult to digest. I feel the best way to increase the illumination is to build on the pressure being applied, and to that end,

Vote: lord hur

to add weight to this wagon.

[imaginality]

Is lord hur really one vote from excommunication?

Unvote

since a lynch this soon would be counterproductive to our efforts.

[imaginality]

V/LA 'til Monday, sorry.

[imaginality]

Vote: Reya Cookiebringer

Sorry for absence. I'll use the night to catch up with this game and contribute fully tomorrow.

[imaginality]

May I enquire of my learned friends here as to how site meta is currently running in regards to the presence of a miller indicating the presence of a cop?

My inclination is to believe lord_hur. I believe Reya Cookiebringer is a preferable lynch. And, in light of the impending deadline, I believe he should claim forthwith.

[imaginality]

TastyToast, do you believe lord_hur's claim, or do you still suspect him to be scum but are unvoting as a precaution in case you are wrong?

[imaginality]

lord_hur's alignment being confirmed, we now have strong reason to believe Mr. Vezok Piraka is also no villain. 'tis possible, I admit, that he may be a godfather, or that the noble lord was not of sane mind, but I regard that as a small chance and prefer to reason on the basis that Mr Piraka is indeed town.

We ought to consider with care the fact that, with eight of us remaining, if we have three villains amongst us, a mislynch here would likely see them victorious. I caution against hasty votes.

On the other hand, we have cause to hope. Perhaps, aside from our ability to locate the villains through reason, we may improve our odds through elimination. I am thinking of how, given the second death during the first night, but not last night, we appear more likely to have a vigilante amongst us than a serial killer. So perhaps we should consider whether he or she should claim to narrow our suspects from eight to six. Indeed, might a mass claim be advisable?

If I were casting a vote at present, it would be on inHimshallibe or ToastyToast.

Preview edit: vezokpiraka, you expressed no suspicion of me previously that I can see. Why such a sudden change of tune? Also, this is probably mylo - why so hasty with your vote?

If anyone else suspects me enough to see me lynched, please announce it without voting, so that I may have the opportunity to claim rather than allow the villains to quick-hammer me.

Preview preview edit: Oh, geez. One of you two, unvote NOW.

[imaginality]

Hmm. Well, I was going to have to claim anyhow by the looks of it, but I'd have preferred you'd waited slightly longer, as we could potentially have gotten more information from noticing who came on my wagon when.

Yes, I am a Friendly Member of High Society Possessing an Indubitable Reputation. Basically I had a one-shot chance to confirm my alignment to my chosen target. I targeted jilynne1991 to confirm my alignment to last night, because (a) it looked likely we might be in mislych-and-lose territory today so I wanted to get the information out there, and (b) I thought she was someone who'd be unlikely to be nightkilled.

So, unless you believe jilynne1991 and I to be scumbuddies doing this as a gambit, I'm cleared, vezokpiraka is (tentatively) cleared, and we may be able to narrow our suspects down further if we have other confirmable claims.

Also, although I didn't do specific scummy things just to avoid being nightkilled, I did slack off more than I would have if I were a VT, and hope to make up for that today.

[imaginality]

Cleared by innocent investigation from a confirmed cop.

[imaginality]

I'm saying vezok is cleared (bar godfather or sanity issues) by lord_hur's innocent result on him.

As for my result, yes, jilynne1991 could be town or scum and me sending her my alignment has no bearing on that. My information doesn't clear vezok, that's separate.

I feel like the way jilynne1991 revealed the result fits with newbie-town more than newbie-scum, who might have leaned towards not telling town the extra information.

[imaginality]

Quick change of opinion from 796, ToastyToast?

[imaginality]

With Messrs. Vezok and Imaginality as confirmed genteel, the rogues have got night kills lined up for the next few nights anyway. I remain stalwart in my favour of the "Gentleman Possessing an Antique but Useable Firearm" claiming for such reasons.

Mere life expectancy alone is not the sole consideration. If the firearm owner possesses ammunition for another shot, then the possibility that the rogues have amongst their number someone capable of distracting him from so doing (a 'role blocker' if you will) is further reason for the firearm owner to remain anonymous longer, if possible.

[imaginality]

Indeed. I agree with that proposal.

[imaginality]

vezok's saying that if you denied receiving the confirmation, it would prove that at least one of you or me is scum. So one or the other of us would be lynched. So it would only make sense for you to do that if you were confident I'd be the one lynched, and that the game would end tonight. (Otherwise, when I flip town, you'd be proven scum and lynched tomorrow.)

[imaginality]

Currently I feel most convinced about the inHimshallibe - ToastyToast scumpairing, and I'm flipping between Hoppster, Feysal and (less often) jilynne as the third person.

Pseudovote: inHimshallibe

[imaginality]

jilynne, why is vezopiraka in your null category?

[imaginality]

What do you think about lord_hur's investigation of him (where he 'found nothing incriminating')? lord_hur has flipped town so he wasn't lying about that...

[imaginality]

With two actual votes on inHimshallibe, and four pseduo-votes, inHimshallibe ought to claim now.

[imaginality]

ToastyToast and/or vezokpiraka, kindly remove your ballots from inHimshallibe as a matter of urgency.

with inHimshallibe's revelations, I now

pseudovote: ToastyToast

and unless we hear of counter-claims to inHimshallibe's claimed role, my pseudovote will become a full vote on the rogue forthwith.

[imaginality]

I am still suspicious of vezokpiraka who was only 'cleared' by a flavour cop rather than a normal cop (who explicitly determines alignment rather than flavour that may suggest one alignment).

If ToastyToast is lynched and flips godfather, I'd regard vezokpiraka as absolutely confirmed.

I agree with the call for a mass claim.

[imaginality]

I'd suggest popcorn-style (each person who claims decides who should claim next), starting with ToastyToast (since he's under most suspicion).

[imaginality]

While we await jilynne1991's return, here is a summary of the claims and flips so far, with roles listed in the vernacular:

StrangerCoug - Bodyguard (confirmed by flip)
lord_hur - Flavor Cop (confirmed by flip)
Twistedspoon - Miller (confirmed by flip)

inHimshallibe - Vigilante
imaginality - Friendly Neighbour (confirmed by jilynne1991)

TheLonging - VT (confirmed by flip)
Reya Cookiebringer - VT (confirmed by flip)

AurorusVox - VT
Sir Hoppster - VT
ToastyToast - VT
Feysal - VT
jilynne1991 - ?
vezokpiraka - ? (lord_hur 'found nothing incriminating')

[imaginality]

Beware that beverage, Sir Vox! If ToastyToast is as it appears, the ringleader of the villains, who knows what manner of poison he may have surreptitiously laced your drink with?

[imaginality]

If you're still there, jilynne, all you have to do is tell us your role...

[imaginality]

jilynne1991, just to clarify, did your role PM say you are a Vanilla Townie? (don't paste it here, just yes or no will do)

[imaginality]

Okay.

Well, I agree that ToastyToast is the lynch for today.

Vote: ToastyToast

[imaginality]

The only way that scum might not have quick-hammered is if Hoppster-Feysal-AV is the scumteam and the former two are absent. But both have posted elsewhere on site since the L-1 vote (post 931). AV and vezok are right, if ToastyToast is town, scum have a roleblocker, so they have no reason not to quick-hammer Toasty.

So I think the lack of quickhammer is more compelling than ToastyToast's reaction to vezok's gambit.

And taking jilynne's non-genuine-sounding 944 into account, I think Toasty-jilynne-someone-else is a good call for the scum team.


Devil's advocate: It's worth considering the alternative to the ToastyToast lynch for a moment.

If ToastyToast isn't scum, then scum are among {AV,Hoppster,Feysal,jilynne,me} and I'm only scum if jlynne is scum. So we could lynch jilynne as AV mooted above.

The advantage would be this: if we're wrong, then there's a chance inHim gets a vig shot (if ToastyToast is godfather), whereas if we're wrong about ToastyToast being godfather, then we lose.

If jlynne did flip town, I'd be proven town. So AV would then probably get to vig one of {AV,Hoppster,Feysal} with 2/3 chance of hitting scum, if ToastyToast is godfather.

Let's say it's 50-50 between there being a roleblocker or a godfather. That means:

Lynch ToastyToast = X% chance of losing (if TT is town).
Lynch jilynne = Y% * (2/3) chance of losing (if jilynne is town and there's a roleblocker or inHim vigs wrongly).

So a lynch on jlynne wth 70% confidence she's scum would have the same chance of winning as a lynch on ToastyToast with 80% confidence he's scum.


However, right now, the lack of quick-hammer really does count against ToastyToast.

[imaginality]

Not possible, since inHim hasn't been counterclaimed, and I could only be scum if jilynne is also scum.

[imaginality]

Time for AV or jilynne to hammer, I think. We're not going to get anything more out of today.

[imaginality]

jilynne, you might want to bold your vote to make sure it's counted.

[imaginality]

Jilynne's two-scum remark, as AurorusVox has remarked, now looks like a blatant slip on the part of a villain. I can confirm I will in all likelihood be casting my ballot for jilynne. I see no reason to refrain from dispatching her today when the evidence is rather clear, so I also vote Nay to AurorusVox's vox pop.

However, before I cast my ballot, I want to conduct and provide a bit of D1/D2 analysis based on the assumption jilynne flips scum. This is so that if the villains kill me tonight, I can already have made some contribution to tomorrow's discussion. I expect to conclude this business within the next day, and will then cast my vote, unless the situation changes dramatically from how it is at present.

@jilynne1991, you say you are in many games with two scum. Can you provide links to some completed games of that nature?

[imaginality]

vezok I'm 100% behind this jilynne lynch. I don't know where you got the impression I'm not?

[imaginality]

Gentleman, in case I do not surviving the approaching night, here is a pamphlet with some thoughts for your perusal:

------

Here's what I noticed from isoing DemonHybrid/jilynne1991 and looking for interactions with other living players:

* DemonHybrid iso4 does the "He's scummy but I'm going to vote someone else instead" thing with vezokpiraka.
*Also in iso4 gives a strong townread on Hoppster.
* jilynne gives town reads on Feysal and Hoppster in iso1.
* jilynne gives ambivalent read on AV in iso3.
* jilynne's ambivalent on vezok in iso16 but pushes for a vezok lynch in 23. ambivalent again in 36.
* she seeks coaching from Feysal in 18. 31 and 38 also suggest she's paying particular attention to Feysal.
* 65 groups AV Feysal and Hoppster as leaning town and vezok as null.
* 78 tries to set Feysal up as scum only if TT flips scum.
* 80 says she suspects Feysal and Hoppster.
* admits to overlooking Hoppster in 91.

Sidenote: jilynne's question in iso4: "If you had to lynch 3 people, who would they be?" and her "If by some miracle we don't have three scum" in 69 pretty much prove her 2-man scumteam comment was indeed a slip rather than her usual assumption.

Here's what I noticed isoing other living players and looking for their interactions with DemonHybrid/jilynne1991:

Feysal makes no comment on DH/jilynne until prompted to by jilynne in iso13. Gives a townread there and again in 20/22. Then turns to suspecting her based on PoE in 26.

Hoppster interacts with DemonHybrid several times but doesn't give a read on him.
Calls out jilynne in 65 for not mentioning AV in her reads.
Gives a townread on jily in 80. Says she's a stronger townread than vezok in 84. Sticks to it in 88 though giving himself room to switch with the 'some recent posts seem similar to her scum-game' comment.

AurorusVox gives a neutral read on DemonHybrid in iso1, then nothing as far as I can see until iso23.
He asks good questions in 31, 32 and 35.
He gives a detailed neutral-slightly-scum read in 49 and points out she's not confirmed town in 52/53.
Keeping attention on her in 66/69.
Pushes a jilynne lynch over a Toasty one in 83 and also says she's sure-scum if Toasty flips town.

vezokpiraka makes no mention of DemonHybrid D1.
First interaction is iso33.
Points out jilynne isn't cleared in iso46.
tries to get jilynne to scumclaim in 60.
is in favour of either jily or feysal lynch today but doesn't think they're scum together (a change from yesterday).

My conclusions

Based on the above comments alone (i.e. leaving out whether the above players look scummy or not on their own merits), if jilynne1991 is scum, I'd regard AurorusVox as cleared town, and vezokpiraka as more clearly town too, considering how they've gone after jilynne. AurorusVox in particular has done this consistently and in my opinion genuinely.

Feysal and Hoppster both fit better as possible buddies, and both have turned to the possibility of a jilynne lynch only reluctantly. Hoppster gets a few extra suspicion points for strongly suggesting jilynne was confirmed town based on how she confirmed me.

Based on jilynne1991's interactions, I'd further clear vezokpiraka (don't think she'd push for a lynch on her only scumbuddy), and I'd most strongly suspect Feysal of being her partner. It reads quite a bit like she's paying greater attention to his comments in particular than to other players. Him being her scumbuddy fits well with that observation.

So in conclusion, if jilynne1991 is scum, interactions to/from her lead me to conclude her buddy is either Feysal or Hoppster, and I'd lean towards lynching Feysal first.

-----

Now I've submitted the above manuscript, there is nothing to delay me any further, and so, forthwith, I issue the following ballot:

Vote: jilynne1991

[imaginality]

Anyways...I think it's either you or Feysal is scum, so I think vezo is defintiely town.

This seems like a scumslip to me. The 'so' in this sentence implies jilynne is only thinking in terms of one other villain. That sounds like she's speaking from a scum perspective, knowing she's scum herself.

[imaginality]

I'm here but don't have more to add at the moment really. I still think jilynne is our best shot of lynching scum. I feel Hoppster scum is unlikely if jilynne's town.

In fact, if jilynne is town then any two-scum pairing of {Hoppster, AurorusVox, Feysal} have had plenty of opportunity to force the lynch through in the last little while. So if jilynne's town, I think vezok must be one of the two scum. Put that way - jilynne or vezok? - I think jilynne is pretty clearly the more likely scum of the two.

[imaginality]

Mr Piraka's speech is uncouth
But what he says, it gleams with truth

I believe we've caught a villain
The sneaky, evil Lady Jilynne

Let us not tarry or delay
Why not vote now to end the day?

[imaginality]

On the one hand, a further death would indeed clarify the situation slightly further.

On the other hand, the villain will likely simply kill that fellow whom the others amongst us most strongly believe to be a gentleman, or the fellow who they feel least certain of swaying to his cause. And then, tomorrow, the rogue will need to persuade only one player to vote wrongly in order to achieve his foul ends. Whereas at present, two gentlemen must be misled in order for the villain to win the day. I think we are all clear-headed fellows and therefore we will be more likely to locate the dastard if we draw on the abilities of all three gentlemen still amongst us.

/oldspeak

I'm going to go look at the first few days, see if I can spot any early-game tells.

[imaginality]

I would've thought most PRs would appear innocent to a flavour cop except BG/vig types with guns. Since vezok refused to claim and he was more cleared than me (given jilynne flipped scum), I'm not too surprised they went for him.


Here's some game activity stats I calculated because I thought I might find something from them:

AV as town: 2.4 posts per day
AV as scum: 2.2 posts per day
AV this game: 2.0 posts per day

Feysal as town: 1.2 posts per day
Feysal as scum: 0.7 posts per day
Feysal this game: 0.4 posts per day

Hoppster as town: 1.6 posts per day
Hoppster as scum: 1.6 posts per day
Hoppster this game: 1.3 posts per day

imaginality as town: 1.0 posts per day
imaginality as scum: 0.9 posts per day
imaginality this game: 0.9 posts per day

We're all below our overall average in this game (the wordiness of D1 may well be a factor in that) but Feysal is particularly lower than average, even if we adjust everyone up by say 0.3.

Although Feysal's figures are based on fewer games than the rest of us, the sizable discrepancy between his posts/day in this game and in general arguably shows him playing to his scum meta activitywise.

Unfortunately Hoppster doesn't have any difference between town and scum posting rates so it doesn't help improve our reads on him.

Spoiler: raw numbers

All game figures are: posts-per-day, total-posts, total-days
All game links were taken from players' wikis
A few non-representative games (e.g. text mafia) were ignored; non-Mafiascum games were ignored
Posts = from first post to last during-game post
Days = from first post to last during-game post

AurorusVox

town
2.8 62 22 newbie929
3.5 77 22 newbie940
1.5 30 20 newbie961
3.6 75 21 open231
0.8 47 62 mini1036
4.6 143 31 mini1144

total posts/total days = 2.4

scum
3.0 152 51 newbie982
1.8 83 47 newbie1022
3.0 123 41 mini1146
2.8 36 13 open246
1.2 30 25 open284
4.2 117 28 mini1108
2.0 90 44 mini1116
1.3 113 85 mini1150

total posts/total days = 2.2

this game
2.0 118 60

Feysal

town
1.0 61 59 consulmaker
1.5 41 28 swords

total posts/total days = 1.2

scum
0.8 15 19 liten
0.6 83 136 stars 3
0.8 28 35 court of gods

total posts/total days = 0.7

this game
0.4 30 75

Hoppster

town
1.5 24 16 open 281
2.0 65 32 medical
1.3 77 59 newbie 1030
1.9 47 25 source code

total posts/total days = 1.6

scum
1.8 47 26 newbie 1058
1.4 50 35 newbie 1074
1.4 58 42 wrestlemania
2.0 39 20 newbie 1076
1.7 130 76 candy zoo

total posts/total days = 1.6

this game
1.3 97 76

imaginality[/i]

town
0.5 36 72 time travel
1.1 58 53 reality tv
2.7 138 52 avatar
0.9 48 52 geezer
0.7 82 111 british comedy
0.8 48 58 return to smalltown y
1.1 31 29 mini624

total posts/total days = 1.0

scum
0.9 48 55 mini1159
1.2 12 10 crossfire
1.1 27 24 pledge
0.8 45 55 smalltown y

total posts/total days = 0.9

this game
0.9 69 78

[imaginality]

Didn't find much to add from the early game stage. Feysal's first post was poor, so were kpaca(AV)'s first two, but neither posted for a while after the game started so they missed out on the RVS. Hoppster went in hard from the start but from what I saw he's done that in both town and scum games previously.

[imaginality]

Feysal, in iso16, you said you had a meta town read of AurorusVox - does that still apply?

Hoppster, do you still agree with what you said about the ToastyToast townflip implying AurorusVox is town?

[imaginality]

I can't see the point of defending your partner if there is no viable alternative to her lynch anyway.

There's the WIFOM aspect of whether Hoppster-scum would think town will give him more credit for not taking the easy option of bussing jilynne despite her being the fairly clear lynch - does it look more townie to appear uncertain about her?

[imaginality]

Last post for now: AV and Feysal, any thoughts on whether the way jilynne1991 overlooks Hoppster in 90/91 is a scumslip like the 2 scum comment was? Just wondering if she forgot him because he's her partner...

I think I'm going to go see if she has any completed scum games to see how she played as scum. In this game she's seemed particularly alert to Feysal's posts and seemed to be somewhat following his lead at times. On the other hand, she's hardly mentioned Hoppster at all. I don't know which she's more likely to do as newbscum.

I do think her interactions with AV read fairly genuine scum - town rather than scumbuddies.

[imaginality]

Re: inHim lying. Seems unlikely to me, the vig claim was enough on its own I think. If he was lying, it means we don't have a mafia roleblocker, but the only thing that would change suspects-wise is that vezok could still have been GF, but he's dead now anyhow.

I'm under the weather and not going to make a long post today. As things stand, if we all had to vote right now I'd vote Feysal.

[imaginality]

I figured out the alarm bells I've been feeling around Hoppster are around how his activity dropped off so much after D2 compared to before:

Player: posts per day D1, D2, D3, D4, D5 --- D1-D2, D3-D5
AurorusVox: n/a, 2.3, 2.2, 3.3, 1.2 --- 2.3, 2.2
Feysal: 0.4, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6 --- 0.5, 0.5
Hoppster: 2.7, 1.4, 0.6, 0.9, 0.4 --- 2.1, 0.6
imaginality: 0.9, 0.4, 1.3, 0.8, 1.4 --- 0.7, 1.2

Mine increased because I was deliberately coasting D1-D2 so I wouldn't be nightkilled (so my Friendly Neighbour power could be of value). Not sure why Hoppster's decreased so much though (even ignoring the fact he tunnelled on Twistedspoon D1).

[imaginality]

Casting my gaze around at the matterless space where our fallen comrades (and the two scoundrels) once stood, I find myself pondering a paradox similar to the 'Barber paradox' of the Ancient Greeks. What is the minimum number of fellows required in order for the event to still be termed a 'gathering'? Four seems a scanty number, but alas, we cannot muster any more, any longer.

Still, gathering or no, permit me to share with you three fellows some recent musings of mine, detailed in my notebook. Forgive the lack of formality in my words:

---
I had a look at Hoppster's other games. He slowed down a bit more in his scum games than his town ones but there's counter-examples in each - steady as scum, slowing as town. So yeah, I can accept it's not a clear tell.

For the record, a lot of this number-crunching and re-reading I've been doing lately hasn't been to actually try to logically rationally analyse everything. I've put the numbers out there in case others find them useful or react to them interestingly, but the main purpose has been to attempt to push all the data of this game into my head and then wait and see what my subconscious flags up. It's warned me in lylo in other games and I've ignored it. Trying not to do that any more, so I wanted to give it plenty of chance to filter through stuff.

It's not warning me against going with my first instincts of lynching Feysal. And there are a few other specific thoughts I've had which fit with Feysal scum better than Hoppster scum:

1. I remembered I had a PR read on Feysal (not publicly stated, of course) until the mass claim. Lurky scum can often give off PR vibes.
2. A two-man scum team have got to be worried about a second scum team or an SK. Going into D1 as hard as Hoppster did is pretty risky; he could easily have been an NK target that night.
3. Indeed, if perchance, StrangerCoug died protecting anyone N1 rather than targeted directly (not unlikely, as he wasn't obvtown in my eyes at least), it was more likely Hoppster than Feysal that he protected based on his reads.

If AurorusVox is scum, I agree with Hoppster, he's simply outplayed us. (And I need a better brain.)
Likewise with Hoppster. If he wins as scum, he's done it boldly.

---


I follow Sir Hoppster in casting my ballot thusly:

Vote: Feysal

[imaginality]

The main reasons for me voting Feysal over Hoppster (or you, before you proved yourself town just now) are:

* Feysal's play this game fits with lurkish scum play and his activity levels are in line with his scum meta
* Hoppster's aggressive and centre-of-attention play D1 seems particularly bold for a two-man scum team
* Jilynne1991 seemed to pick up on what Feysal was saying in particular (compared with other players), in slightly odd ways
* I think scum were most likely to quietly go along with a jilynne1991 lynch yesterday - Hoppster's doubts about it read to me as genuine town jumpy about the thought of mislynching, rather than scum trying to save his buddy
* My PR gut feel about Feysal up until the roleclaims would be nicely explained by him being scum (another role with hidden knowledge and reason for cautious play)

[imaginality]

I too am voicing my presence lest our host presume me to be slumbering. While his refreshments and beverages are exquisite, I am less enamoured of the so-called 'hearty jape' of his whereby he prods idle guests with a poker from the fireside.

No more questions from me, but equally happy to answer any.

[imaginality]

Ehh... Y.

1094 rang more as caught scum than about-to-be-mislynched town.

[imaginality]

I'm town.

Aurorus you better be kidding.

[imaginality]

*flips coin*

I'm still town.

[imaginality]

*flips coin*

I was joking. I'm scum. AV is my scumbuddy. Nice work AV!

[imaginality]

We can troll each other in twilight.

One wonders what a suitably gentlemanly term for this is. Possibly 'headsmanship', for the way in which a well-crafted troll is designed to mess with the target's head.

As in, "Lord Vox, post 1111 was a fine piece of headsmanship. I nearly dropped my pipe."

Or, "Sir Hoppster, your posts this page make me want to believe you are a gentleman, but if they turn out to be headsmanship from a scoundrel, you'll be taking your popped corn in a very different orifice than nature intended."

[imaginality]

If Sir Hoppster is indeed a villain, the boldness of his play D1 earned him his victory.

Sir Hoppster, if villain indeed you are, I request you to remember I voted you nary once all game. I am no threat to you and will gladly be tutored in the arts of villainry. Your comrade jilynne1991 lies dead, after all: it seems to me you would certainly be glad of a new accomplice to drive your getaway stagecoach?

[imaginality]

Nice!

Well played AurorusVox in particular, you being so obvtown helped a lot in lylo. I was second-guessing myself over Hoppster for a while but when I stepped back and thought about it, there was a sort of jumpy uncertainness to his later game which smelled of town.

I'm pretty happy with how I played in this game (from D3 onwards, once I was no longer being deliberately useless).

I think for one of her first games onsite, jilynne1991 played okay as scum. The only obvious slip was the two-scum comment. Feysal didn't do anything much wrong either, there was just slightly more to tie him to jilynne1991 than there was for Hoppster.

@Feysal: did you kill vezokpiraka last night because you weren't sure if he was a PR, or because you thought he'd be harder to mislead/get mislynched?

[imaginality]

Forgot to say: thanks for modding this, Wraith. I really enjoyed the formal flavour. It slowed the game down at first but it was great fun overall, and the mod scenes (and modding in general) were nicely done.