Mini 164: Rock Paper Scissors Mafia - Game Over

[DarkLight140]

/confirm

[DarkLight140]

I'd almost go with the "No Lynch" strategy, at least for now... but, it occurs to be that if a few people see fit to share their investigative results (as is implied to be happening now) then each team will start to struggle for a lynch on the other teams. And, as people are going to start claiming investigative results eventually in order to try and push lynches on the other mafias through, so we may as well start now.

Of course, following a lynch after a claimed (or implied) investigation is like a half-claim yourself, but that's the price to be paid. I'd like another opinion or three on this before starting to jump on anyone claimed to be in an opposed mafia, though- it seems like that could devolve into chaos very quickly.

[DarkLight140]

The thing about those options is that if, say, we choose #1, and then I decide to say "Hey, I investigated (insert player name) last night, and he's the (insert continent) rep from the (insert mafia) mafia", everyone not in their mafia may very well vote them. After all, agreed-upon mechanics or no, killing the other mafia is the true objective.

Another option- we could have everyone claim who they targeted last night, every day. If they want to share the results of their targeting or not, that's up to them, but things will probably end up a bit more tactical if we choose that.

[DarkLight140]

Why would members of the mafia other than the one you revealed a member of target you? After all, you could be one of theirs. I suppose they might, with intent to protect, but...

[DarkLight140]

Day is going to be the least luck-based part of the game, really. After all, in day, you can actually affect other people's actions with opinions, logic, and, well, talking. At night, you just have to target based on information gained in day and during past nights, and hope for the best.

[DarkLight140]

All right... it looks like we'll be following the "claim you know who someone is to kill the enemy" plan, after all.

Vote: thrawn1020

.

[DarkLight140]

All right. In the interests of revealing as much as possible to the lazy peoples of the world:

Yesterday's Final Vote Count:
thrawn1020 - 7 (Locus Cosecant, Mr. Flay, DarkLight140, Save The Dragons, Narninian, StrykkerVerde, Dmi)
Locus Cosecant - 3 (vikingfan, pwnz, thrawn1020)
Dmi - 1 (Mgm)
Not Voting: Coron

Today's Current Vote Count, According to Me:
StrykkerVerde - 1 (Mr. Flay)
Dmi - 3 (Mgm, Narninian, Coron)
Mgm - 2 (Dmi, Locus Cosecant)
Not Voting: vikingfan, pwnz, StrykkerVerde, DarkLight140, Save The Dragons

If we assume that no member of a mafia knowingly votes a member of their mafia, assume StrykkerVerde is telling the truth about being in Mr. Flay's mafia, and assume that the known results are Dmi- Scissors, thrawn1020 - Paper, Mgm - Rock...

Coron is non-scissor
DarkLight140 is non-paper
Dmi is scissor (both by voting patterns and known)
Locus Cosecant is scissor (by voting pattern; the randomness on Day II may indicate simple non-paper, though)
Mgm is rock (taken as known; voting pattern only proves non-scissor)
Mr. Flay is non-paper
Narninian is rock
pwnz is unknown
Save The Dragons is non-paper
StrykkerVerde is non-paper
vikingfan is unknown

Now, cross-referencing gives us that. With a bit more thinking...

8 non-papers are accounted for. Therefore, paper mafia consists of... vikingfan, pwnz, and Coron.
Rock mafia consists of Narninian, Mgm, and either (myself and Save the Dragons) or (StrykkerVerde and Mr. Flay).
Scissors mafia consists of Dmi, Locus Cosecant, and either (myself and Save the Dragons) or (StrykkerVerde and Mr. Flay).

As myself, Save the Dragons, StrykkerVerde, and Mr. Flay now all have full information... well, we'll see. Locus being all random could, in fact, screw up the last two mafia entirely, but I think not. If nothing else, I've got a 50% chance of being right regardless.

In any case, I say we kill off the paper mafia before bickering between rock and scissors, yes?

Vote Coron

.

(If anyone thinks my logic or assumptions are flawed, please tell me, because I think people just might use this until it's proven wrong.)

[DarkLight140]

Darn it, StrykkerVerde, don't post while I'm furiously logic-ing, will you? It messes things up! I guess we have to discount the final rock/scissors teamings, then.

[DarkLight140]

All right, any Paper seems like a good lynch to me as well- and I do have faith in my assumptions. This isn't a normal game of mafia, where being seen as going against your mafia makes you look good; it just means there are 11 people who might kill you regardless, rather than 8 people who would, given the chance.

Unvote, Vote: vikingfan

[DarkLight140]

It won't be even if we lynch Dmi- the rock mafia will have an advantage. On the other hand, if we kill a paper...

Okay, this needs some organization. How about the Scissors and Rocks from two geographical areas target the remaining papers, and the other two in each mafia target the other rocks/scissors, trying for investigations or protects from the papers. In the morning, we'll have the paper mafia entirely eliminated, and the rocks and scissors can play the night game from there on out.

[DarkLight140]

If you can logically reason your way into providing a more correct list, please do so. Otherwise, we could, I suppose, just throw out all the names we've got, get a complete list of all player's alleigences, and then figure out what we're doing from there, but as it is now, I don't see anyone really getting someplace not mostly random while playing this guessing game.

[DarkLight140]

Locus Cosecant, making plans for night choices is just as important as lynching correctly (that is, someone of the other teams). This is true for everyone, no matter their team... so you might want to consider your actions more carefully. You're mostly useless alone until after half your team is dead, you know, so working with others can help.

In keeping with Mr. Flay's proposal, I'd say the Rocks should target Coron, if the scissors are targeting Narninian. I'd hardly consider this a perfect plan... but I'll o along with it.

[DarkLight140]

Coron... I think not. I'd really, really suggest having some sort of coordinated plan before we move forward. Voting before we've worked out plans can do nasty things to us- it's mostly luck that no one died last night Although, I would guess that each of the scissors and rock mafia, realizing that they would be in trouble if they lost a man and the other didn't, decided that they would be better off protecting their own.

[DarkLight140]

Right. So, if we can stop being quite so bloodthirsty, maybe we can actually get something done aside from rushing headlong to our doom.

[DarkLight140]

Well, for one thing, I'm kind of hoping a member of my team will propose an alliance with the papers, lynch a member of the opposite team with their help, and then go on to nightkill the remaining opposition. I'm seeing that as the best move, since the papers have more than a little nightkill power, and my team can protect 3/5 of the non-enemies (the odds of an accidental kill are minor, though non-neligible), giving good odds of weathering retaliatory strikes as the papers eliminate the foes. Then, at least theoretically, neither side will be able to acheive the needed lynching majority, and the papers can fight it out with my team, but at least come in second- much better than they're doing now. See, I call it mutually beneficial... for my team and the papers.

However, I'm reluctant to do so myself, as I'm pretty sure whoever does is asking to be killed. However... papers, are you feeling like allying?

[DarkLight140]

I would almost say that that's been an accurate description ofthe game all along. However, no one is irrelevant as long as they're alive, since they retain significant ability to harm theother mafias.

[DarkLight140]

Heh, I should've proposed a bargain while pointing out that it was probably everyone's best move to try for one, instead of just saying that one should be made and leaving it at that... foolish of me, when the other player that's been trying to be strategic all game is on an unknown team. *shakes head*

I'd like to strike a deal with Papers, as well. As I seem to lack brilliant analytical skill, though, all I can up with for general terms are "you help me lynch someone on our mutually opposing team (to be announced if you agree), then nightkill the other two, and we'll make sure at least one of you is protected during the night". After that, well, we'd probably be reduced to even terms anyway as the third team takes vengeance, so you'd have at least a shot at first.

[DarkLight140]

True, but then, it depends as much on us trusting you during the night as you trusting us. Any deal is going to be essentially based upon trust, anyway.

[DarkLight140]

Both of our alignments are publicly unknown at this point. Therefore, I'm covering my bases. As it happens, though, since the teams are effectively mirrors of one another, any deal either of us proposes can be used by the other for equal effetiveness, so it's probably useless anyway.

My offered deal is on the table, and I'm fairly sure that if my entire team reveals their alignments when it's agreed, we'll be able to get paper either first or second. As it would be to my team's clear advantage to agree, I trust that no matter which side I'm on, they'd be glad to have the deal and will go along. I'd rather not reveal until then. However, I will say that I know the alignment of one 'hidden' player on the other team.

Any Paper results being revealed (even their existence, as Mr. Flay said) could very well help. One member of a team claiming to be from the other could mess everything up, and it would certainly be an attractive option for a member whose team will otherwise fall.

[DarkLight140]

*sigh* I probably should have made working out the logistics a higher priority...

I'm a Scissor, of course. I hereby propose the exact same thing Mr. Flay did, with the following exceptions:

-Replace all instances of "rock" with "scissor", and all instances of "scissor" with "rock".
-Replace all instances of "Mr. Flay" with "DarkLight140", and all instances of "DarkLight140" (or that distastefully shortened and incorrectly capitalized version, "Darklight") with "Mr. Flay".
-Replace all instances of "Coron" with "Locus Cosecant", and all instances of "Locus Cosecant" with "Coron".
-Ignore anything that no longer applies or makes sense, which should be parts of the second paragraph, the third to last, and the last.

So... yeah. As should be fairly clear, my proposal is just as good as Mr. Flay's. You should, therefore, go along with mine. Because...

-I didn't target a Paper last night (as it happens, I protected Locus Cosecant instead. Given how anti-Paper he's been, that probably doesn't give me points with you guys, though.)
-I was the first one to strongly suggest that we abandon the "continually lynch Paper" plan and start allying, and even if I didn't post a valid, workable plan, I did post all the general ideas expressed in Mr. Flay's plan except specific targeting.
-I have not voted at all after that first lynch of Thrawn. Mr. Flay has- against Paper.

That's all I've got going for me, aside from one minor ace (a rather useful investigation) up my sleeve. So... ally with Scissor. Please?

If the Papers refuse, third scissor, please claim rock to mess with their heads. Mr. Flay is European, so you've got a 50% shot at getting the unknown nationality even if you guess. Luck.

[DarkLight140]

I was working with you on that, you know. I even would have been happy to pull it off... but when the Papers plan specifically to reduce the size of my group in-thread, I've got priorities. No team can take 1-for-1 trades and survive long. Quite smooth on their part.

As for them being symmetrical, that may not be true. Based on the investigation results of Coron, Locus Cosecant, and the two hidden players, one team could easily turn out to have a distinct advantage. Aside from that, Locus Cosecant has two votes, and one of them's his. I doubt that one will stay for long.

[DarkLight140]

Well, vikingfan, we seem to be able to offer you a team that doesn't have two claimed Asians, though we're short by a member. Go whichever one of you is really a scissor!

Even if we lose, this game will go down on the record as having had some funny moments, for me at least. Everything comes together... by falling apart.

Narninian, I agree that the current plan is flawed, but I don't see anything better- it will always be to the advantage of the side with protects to protect their own. On Even worse for you, as you're the team with the swing votes, it's up to you to fulfill the first half of any bargain and then hope the other team values keeping their word over winning. So...

[DarkLight140]

Well, unless Narninian changes the collective mind of Paper, I guess it's time for the public Scissors to start making plots against the lot of you. I'll start plotting and get back to you all at a later time.

[DarkLight140]

Not strictly true. They could not win if, say, you allied with us instead. Or if we hatch a plot so overwhelmingly successful we somehow triumph against the combined might of the five of you.

...which I'm still trying to come up with. Was that a "Sure, vikingfan, let's ally Rock" on your part? Just making sure.

[DarkLight140]

Argh! We were doing so well, too. Sorry, STD... you tried.

Scissors, well, the only shot we've got is if Paper decides to double-cross Rock. Therefore, let's plan our kills in-thread here to try and make it profitable for them to do so, yeah? I'm thinking, of the pair of us that live, one targets Mr. Flay, and one hits Coron. Then, the Papers can target StrykkerVerde and one of us. If the Rocks double-crossed them and only protected each other, then no Rocks will die, and it will be 3 with kills tomorrow facing them down. If, on the other hand, the Rocks protected a Paper, then a Rock or two will die, a Scissor will also die, and Paper will be in a good position- probably the strongest, but at worst 2v2v1, which is still better than they've got now.

Locus Cosecant or STD, if you've got anything better, please share. It's a poor plan, but it's all I've got on short notice.

[DarkLight140]

You know you're going to lose this like this, paper! You fulfilled your end of the bargain, and now there's no advantage to him fulfilling his side. Not even your future support in the game, because by backstabbing you the Rocks can win! You've got to kill them to save yourselves (and coincidentally, help out us). Why settle for a sure second when you could have a shot at first?

...Ugh. This game is starting take an ugly turn.

[DarkLight140]

Whoa! I'm alive! Disturbing...

I'd say lynch me, kill each other, and no one wins.

If that prospect doesn't seem attractive to you, I'd be willing to go on someone's side, I guess.

It hits me once again that this game is, in fact, incredibly messed up.

[DarkLight140]

Ahem. My name is

DarkLight140

. Capital L, and 140, not 141. DarkLight141 -DarkLight145 exist soley as extra accounts on things where having multiple accounts is beneficial.

Secondly, I would prefer that I get lynched, and then vikingfan kill Mr. Flay, and Narninian kill StrykkerVerde. The Rocks, naturally, do the opposite. Everyone dies, therefore no one wins and Scissors does just as well as the rest of the teams, since everyone ends with a loss. Claiming that Scissors comes in last is possible, but not really, since frankly dead is dead and the game would end in an orgy of blood in that scenario anyway.

2 Paper vs. 1 Rock vs. 1 Scissor come the night is doable as well, and it eliminates the 'Scissors comes in last because you were lynched rather than killed' thing. So I guess that would be best.

Vote: Mr. Flay

. I kill Narninian, he kills me, vikingfan kills StrykkerVerde, StrykkerVerde kills vikingfan, and we all go to hell in a clear-cut draw. Claiming that Paper won that scenario is, again, quite possible (since they had the most going into the night) but dead, as I said, is dead. Probably better for Paper to be able to claim they came in first, though, rather than only being able to claim Scissors came in last.

[DarkLight140]

Well, frankly, I think I pretty much just eliminated the possibility of someone screwing up, because unless a Paper is lynched, everyone knows who to kill so they don't. Either way, the endgame is about as clear as you're going to get. There's really no possible win for anyone, here.

[DarkLight140]

Well, good game, you all. I have to say, it was, uh... not at all what I expected when I signed up. Don't mess up and give the other team a win, now.

[DarkLight140]

Wait a minute. Why didn't the game end with Narninian and vikingfan dead? No one protected them, obviously, and I thought all choices resolved simultaneously.

[DarkLight140]

I don't know. I would have said that once Paper got down to two people, everyone would be more concerned with getting the kills targeted against the other enemy than getting rid of them- that's actually the first thing that occured to me as Paper started going down in numbers. Since whoever went down first gained rapidly in effective power, "dodging the odds" isn't a phrase I'd use to describe what Paper did at all.

Except for the last night. I was so very sure I'd managed to pull a draw, too... I figured that going 2v1v1 was asking for someone to venefully kill me instead of the 2-team.

[DarkLight140]

Looking at the night choices, two people messed up that night. Scissors, it looks like, pulled off our part flawlessly and threw a protect in as well, but Rock stopped our kill, and only one of you Papers targeted us in any case. If not for StrykkerVerde's mistake, you'd have lost the game- your plan to kill Scissors made no difference at all. After that, though...

[DarkLight140]

The difference between the 3v3v2 and 2v2v1 scenarios is that when oneteam has significantly more kill-power, it's more worth it to have them on your side- getting numers AND kills- rather than just getting numbers in the 2v2v1 thing. If things had worked as I'd planned, it would have been in my interest to get lynched (thereby ensuring a draw) and in your guys' interest to get me on your side (thereby bringing up the possibility of the 1-man teams targeting each other, giving the 2-man team a win). Or so I thought.

[DarkLight140]

I'd have gone with Paper, obviously. My team seemed to have double-crossed Rock (though it turned out, seeing the night results, that this was not the case), and further I'd pointedly worked against him the previous day... but I'd tried to avoid doing anything pointedly against Paper as soon as they started to become the minority. Besides, Mr. Flay was coming up with most of the ideas (though I do credit myself with some, he was very good with the particulars of everything that I found myself unable to work out). That means siding with him would make me more vulerable to being out-clevered.