New York 138: OxyMoron Mafia :: Game Over!

[mastin2]

/Confirm. The mod knows my style.

[mastin2]

Mod:

Secret Project's name is not underlined--fix?

[mastin2]

I'm going to try something:

1: Why do you play Mafia?

2: How old are you?

3: How would you describe your general thought process?

4: What is your time-zone?

5: How do you approach unique problems in need of solution?

6: What is your favorite precious metal, and why?

7: How would you approach this game as town?
8: How would you approach this game as scum?

9: What is your gender?

10: Are you nervous?

11: What is your experience level?

12: What are your strongest emotions?

13: What's your general activity level?

14: What is your plan in this game?

15: Which do you prefer: RVS, RQS, or other? (If Other, please explain.)

16: Do you have a reputation? What for?

17: Do you prefer playing as town, scum, or other? (If Other, please explain.)

18: What are your favorite three roles?
19: What order are those favorite roles in?

20: What is your stance on lurkers?

21: How do you plan on catching scum?

22: What do these questions mean to you?

23: What is the airspeed velocity of a coconut-laden swallow?

24: You see someone waving their arms and directing you to go right. How do you respond?

[mastin2]

We can do both. They are not mutually exclusive.

[mastin2]

And some player-specific ones:

Empking, kcdaspot, Haylen, and JordanA24:

Why did you pre-in for this game?

Vifam:

Why did you join a new (Large) game despite asking to replace out of a (Mini) game?

MintKitten:

Will you flake from this game?

Johhog:

Are you familiar with either Haylen or myself?

Both Heads Of Secret Project:

How well do you think you'll work together?
Do you think you'll have better reads than in 1180?

[mastin2]

An additional question I want to ask everyone:

25A: Do you play more for fun, or more for the thrill of victory?
25B: Your stance aside, do you think others should play with a similar outlook? Explain why or why not.

[mastin2]

Oversoul and Kcdaspot:

Please link me to one recently finished game as both alignments if possible.

[mastin2]

Vifam:

Why did you join a new (Large) game despite asking to replace out of a (Mini) game?

I hate rereading and those games were booooooooooooooooooooring.

1: And what makes you think that this game will be more fun?

2: Please answer my twenty-five general questions.

[mastin2]

Oversoul+Vifam: Please answer Questions 25A and 25B.

Estyn, please answer my 25 questions as well.

They're all important.

[mastin2]

Oh, nevermind. Missed you answering. Sorry.

[mastin2]

Johhog:

Are you familiar with either Haylen or myself?

Why do you think that? Nah, I've read a couple of your games (I enjoy reading completed games) and Haylen greeted me when I was a newbie. That's all I think.

Have you read any games from 2009?

[mastin2]

TOWN: Empking
Johog
Vifam
Xeras
Kcdaspot

SCUM: David
Fool Hardy
Secret Project
Oversoul

NULL: Estyn

These reads are a little out-of-date, but I'll update them later. Have to run; be back in a couple of hours.

[mastin2]

Vifam:

7: How would you approach this game as town?

Make some use with completed games and just overall meta for the first time. Maybe.

8: How would you approach this game as scum?

POE scumhunting

Are these backwards? (Reading 3-5 now.)

[mastin2]

Mastin; Why didn't you notice that I didn't answer one of your questions?

I thought about it when I was away. I didn't notice it at the time because it slipped through the cracks, but later thought, "wait a sec. I think Empking's missing one of them..."

Updated reads as of page 2:

TOWN: Empking
Johog
Vifam
Xeras
Kcdaspot
redFF

SCUM: David
Fool Hardy
Secret Project
Oversoul
Estyn
(Note to self--check how many players are actually in the game. Five scum tends to require at least 20 players.)

Estyn and Oversoul have strengthened my scum-reads.

Since they take me a while to read, I'll get back to you on Secret+Kcdaspot's posts. However--
I noticed that Secret only answered up to 22. There are 24.

Secret: Why did you cut the last two out?

Additionally.

Secret:

What makes my questions to you subjective?

I'll get back to Foolish Fool. But,

Foolish Fool:

Did you notice my 25A/25B?

Fool Hardy:

Same to you.

Honestly, my vision is impaired right now. Seeing lots of black dots which make it hard to read. Will get back with updated reads. This is through four, skipping where I mention I've skipped.

[mastin2]

Oh, hey.
We have

exactly

20 players.

Means five scum comes out to a nice, even, 25% and is therefore a perfect number. Looks like I got things right!

[mastin2]

And no, I'm not answering your damn questions.

Yes.
You will.

EVERYONE will.

Oh, and btw. Chronos added to town list.

[mastin2]

Can I know why I'm scum?

If everyone answers my questions, then yes.

Otherwise, no.

[mastin2]

TBH i'm not liking oversoul


at all

You are not alone.

[mastin2]

Oh, I have no problem with you. I actually like you, as a person.

Just not you, as your role this game. I don't like that part of you.

[mastin2]

*sigh*

I'm skimming a lot. Need to read people's answers to my questions, but there's a lot of talk which should die. The game hasn't even started yet, and we've gotten above ten pages! Most of it seems to be Vifam (last-known read, town), Johhog (definitely town), with a little from Foolish Fool (read pending, but prob-town), Secret Project (updated read pending, but almost certainly scum), and Fool Hardy (see also--Secret Project).

Am I wrong?

[mastin2]

And for the record, that means that there's only two posters' posts that I'm really interested in reading. Johhog and Vifam, quite frankly, don't need my attention since they're town, and prob-town. (Respectively.) If you want to talk Secret Project or Fool Hardy, I'm all ears. If you want to waste time debating Vifam and Johhog, you've lost my interest.

(Oh, and one name I really need an update on is David--he really, REALLY needs to answer my questions.)

Ninja: Empking, you're the closest thing we've got to confirmed town. Honestly, I don't mind you chiming in, because you don't get trapped in an endless, pointless argument. Your insight actually seems, well, good. (Not necessarily correct, but still good.)

[mastin2]

*sigh*

Foolish

Fool

indeed. Johhog is town. Vifam is prob-town. You're likely-town. Stop going at each others' throats.

And David. I DO have a very dang good reason for asking the questions. Failure to answer them will be considered a scumclaim.

Like Secret is for one half cutting out two of the most important questions in there when answering. And for his other half failing to answer them at all.

If you don't have the time right now, that's okay--Chaos didn't at first, but came back and did.
If you flat-out refuse, that's not.

[mastin2]

My palm.
Is firmly planted on my face.

Three new pages?

Really?

I fail to see why Town should bow to your demands. You appear to be trying to establish yourself as a leader, attempting to threaten others to get your way. I say again.

Name one pro-town to deny me answers.

I can name multiple anti-town reasons not to answer. Shuts down discussion, denies me accurate reads, denies the rest of the town accurate reads...things like that.

Hence. Scumclaim.

Encourages sheeping and discourages critical thought.

Quite the opposite. Answering encourages freedom and choice. Like I already can tell who is a sheep and who is a leader by the answers to my questions. As I said. Every single one of them has a purpose. Even if you cannot tell.

Since the game has officially begun:

I'll be voting whoever among the six names I've mentioned, has the most votes. I'm taking a wild guess at that being Oversoul.


Finished skimming.

VOTE: Oversoul.

I'll get fully caught up later. I have a lot of reading to do.

[mastin2]

Trust me. Oversouls's one of my top two scum-reads, from what I've read.
He's not a mislynch.

Not this game.

[mastin2]

BTW,

/confirm

You're the only one aside from David who hasn't answered my questions.

Mint, Teaz, and Donk will need to answer when they come, or their replacements will. Lewarcher's replacement needs to answer as well.

And once more, David needs to answer as well.

(Still need to fully re-read, from pretty much page three.)

[mastin2]

am i still town?

Last I checked. Still need to read your answers to my questions to make sure. (I've only read Empking's, Estyn's [which I should re-read], Vifam's [also need a re-read], Oversoul's, Johhog's, and redFF's.)

[mastin2]

I am keeping tally of them. (6/20 players haven't answered. 7/22, if you count the hydras. And of them, one is refusing, one/two hasn't answered them, one is being replaced, and three have yet to post.) And I my explanation for why I asked them typed up. And extensive notes on everyone's answers that I've so-far read. I just haven't put the time in to read the rest. It takes me a minimum of half an hour per player. Considering we've got two hydras, that adds another two. (Or, would, if Secret was cooporating. Their failure to do so, makes them my other top scumread with Oversoul.)

[mastin2]

(So, do the math. If everyone answers, that's 21 players to analyze. Which is at least 630 minutes of work at a minimum. In other words, I have to do AT LEAST ten and a half hours of solid analysis on people's answers. There's a REASON I want everyone to answer--because they're thorough!)

[mastin2]

And like I said, they're useless questions to me, even though I knew you would think otherwise.

Yup. You're totally scum this game. Foolish Fool is the town-hydra (Secret Project of this game), you're the scum hydra (WormyKrew of this game). No doubt about it to me, anymore.

[mastin2]

Hey, evil.

Remember how in Outdoorsmen Mafia 2, you got nailed in your opening post as scum?

Well...

...Yeah......

[mastin2]

Indeed it was, Secret. But I have this magical ability to read people's confirmation posts and tell if they're town or scum. It doesn't always work--I get a lot of nulls, and a few false-positive-towns--but for the most part, I tend to be eerily good at it.

(But, no, seriously, you're living breathing scum.)

[mastin2]

And posts like the above, Secret, are why you continue to be scum.

[mastin2]

why can't we be Soben?

'Cause you asked.

That's why.

[mastin2]

Nah. They wish. I wish. But nope!

[mastin2]

Finally, a prod. I've been waiting for one for days.

("...What." I lost my interest in the game, quite frankly, when I kept on reading endless pages of what I saw to be a mostly pointless argument, repeating many of the same useless points, about many players which looked townVtown. I explained this earlier, and it was mostly ignored. Game activity seems to have fortunately slowed, but I still am quite behind. Hence, why I was waiting for a prod--to kick-start my motivation.)

That said, you'll unfortunately have to wait for a little while. I'm tired from having done an intense workout (500 yard swim, pushups, situps, pullups, and then a 1.5 mile run), and am running another event tomorrow morning, which means going to bed fairly early tonight so that, well, I don't die from exhaustion. Between my other obligations and that (not to mention how I'll have one day [not sure which, yet] in my weekend covered by a visiting relative which eats up my free-time), I might not get to you today. But, hey. *cracks wrists* I'm Mastin. When I get interested in a game,

scum run in terror

. (It'll be well worth the wait.)

[mastin2]

Whoah.

[mastin2]

Right. So you guys have the honor of being one of my last games before I semi-retire. (Including Hydras, I'm down to being alive in only four games. [Both my solo games are the New Yorks.] My scumplay in Flash Mafia 3 made me realize that I'm becoming too similar to the VI I used to be, so I'm going on a soul-search after this, only
1: Playing by request,
2: and/or playing on a hydra, and
3: Modding.

That'll be it, until I feel like I've fixed the problem.)


I'll be honest, I obviously am not very into this game...yet. And I'm busy at the moment (technically, I shoulda gone to bed two hours ago ) and will be somewhat-busy tomorrow. But I still have my notes. Looking at them has the habit of reinvigorating me. I might not remember MUCH of the game right now, but when I look at them, things will become as clear as day.

Mod:

If it's not too much trouble, For the next 96-120 hours, could you send me a reminder that I'm in this game every 24 hours? (Not a prod, given the length. Just something to remind me, so that I don't forget. If apathy claims me, I have a hard time fighting back, and having a mod help me does wonders.)

[mastin2]

And, yeah. I do want to get into this game. This game very well has the potential to be the Grand Finale of Mastin-play for the next few months. (I'll never leave the site again, I just don't think I should join any new games with my current mind-set.) I want it to be the best one, yet.

[mastin2]

This game really needs my love. I was wise to note I was busy, but it was more-so than I had anticipated. Not that it apparently matters, since nobody has PM'd me about my absence. (It's kinda sad. Having that feeling. That you could not post for a week. That you could fade off the site. And that nobody would notice or care. That's what this game makes me feel like.)

But, hey. After I get some sleep (5:20 AM, and I've been up for 20 hours now), I don't think I'll have anything tomorrow.

[mastin2]

Could've sworn I posted this last night. Guess I was just too tired to tell the difference.

Spoiler: RQS Responders

1. Empking <--Answered in 23, all 25.
2. Hoppster Kcdaspot <--Hoppster answered the first 24 in 854. Can't find 25. Kcdaspot answered first 24 in #64.
3. Estyn <--Answered all my questions in 32.
4. Xeras <--Answered first 24 in 188.
5. Foolish Fool (Haylen + JordanA24) <--Jordan answered in 85 (first 24+custom) and 124 (25). If Haylen answered, I can't find it in their ISOs.
6. mastin2 <--I should go as close to last as possible.
7. Vifam <--First 24 in #37, finished in 92.
8. Lady Lambadelta BomberMan <--LLD hasn't posted. Bomberman answered first 24 in 361.
9. projectmatt Fool_Hardy <--Fool did First 24 in #87. Can't find 25. Matt answered first 24 in 872.
10. David Xanatos <--Refused to answer.
11. Oversoul <--Answered first 24 in #26, fininshed in #48.
12. Ironhead MintKitten <--Mint never posted. Ironhead answered first 24 in 890. Didn't answer 25, though.
13. bvoigt whiTE_Teaz <--White never posted. BV hasn't answered.
14. LordChronos <--Answers first 24 in 227. Didn't answer 25.
15. Johhog <--First 24 in #30, 25 in 125.
16. LTP Mafia <--Only has a confirm post.
17. Secret Project (evilpacman18 + MrBump) <--Pac Answered first 22 (!) in 57. And continued in 60/62 to answer my questions. The other head answers in 474.
18. donkwich <--No posts.
19. lewarcher82 <--Also no posts.
20. redFF <--Answered first 24 in 26, finished in 27.

Hoppster, Xeras, Matt, Ironhead, and Chronos:

Please answer questions 25A+25B. I realize they're a little easier to miss, but just as important.

Haylen half of Foolish Fool, LLD/Bomberman's slot,

(technically)

David Xanatos, BV/WT's slot, LTP Mafia's slot, Donkwich's slot, and Lewarcher's slot:

You'll need to answer all of the questions.

They can be found here (first 24) and are finished here.

Yes, these questions are important. Once I've gotten fully into the game, they're potentially groundbreaking.


I realize it isn't much to you, of course. When you see this list compiled and posted, your first cry would most likely be "Fluff!" It's not. It not only is a way to scumhunt, but is ALSO a convenient reference, doubling as a way to get me back into the game. It'll be very time-consuming to do, but hey. I'm Mastin. Obsessively giving games far more than a normal person is just what I *do*. (And, y'know, the whole "last game before semi-retirement" thing--wanting to end on a high note, rather than an all-time-low.)

[mastin2]

Kinda sorta here. I've been working on compiling the answers to my questions. It takes...a lot of time. (Not so much the compiling. That takes ten seconds each, a simple copy-paste. What I DO with it*, on the other hand...)

*It requires a lot of cross-referencing, among other things. When I get around to posting the results, you'll see what I mean.


Yes, I'll be scumhunting through traditional methods once I finish, since this is a highly experimental technique which I've never tried before this game, and while I do think it's reliable, I am of course far from positive. (Note to self, make sure to keep my read objective. Make sure that my reads match up with the process, rather than my reads being formed because of my conclusion from the process. ) Only way to know for sure is to finish the process, then read the game and compare.

[mastin2]

Here, kinda.

Still haven't finished my work, since...well, it's a lot of info, and I screwed up somewhere. Been trying to figure out where I went wrong and what's missing/got deleted/got accidentally edited/got mutated/whatever. I know there's SOMETHING, but I'm having trouble pinning it down.

BTW, just for the record. I really should read the game, but my notes still say Oversoul is scum, Secret Project is scum, and Fool_Hardy/Projectmatt is scum as well, but I need another name or two. (I've forgotten how many players are in the game, which makes the difference between it being four or five. I just remember three was too few.) Johhog was one of my strongest town-reads by my notes. Empking was the other one, with Xeras and Vifam as weaker town-reads. I remember more--Foolish Fool (dunno why), David Xanatos for his stubborness, Kcdaspot for an Oversoul/KCD interaction (see also: Oversoul scumread), and I THINK Bomberman was one as well. There might've been Lord Chronos and LTP Mafia town-reads, but I'm less certain on them.

Estyn was firmly null, though; I remember that much. Along with redFF. Don't remember who else I had as null.


I know, I know. I suck, I'm in the dark as to the game state, what claims there are, I've done zero visible scumhunting, but I AM trying. It sucks. If I read the thread, my reads will bias my analysis. If I take too long to do my analysis, then I won't be able to read the thread and determine how accurate it is. Hence, I need to figure things out, quickly.

[mastin2]

Dang, it's twenty. Which means 5 = 25%. Which means five is almost a complete guarantee. Which means two more names I need, and that's assuming I'm right on all three of my scumreads, which I probably am not.

[mastin2]

Oh, forgot to do this.

Vote: Secret Project

.

Should always get a vote out.

[mastin2]

*insert halfhearted posting here*

Screw my analysis. It being slightly biased by my reads is worth the tradeoff of having read the game, knowing what's going on, and having the motivation to actually DO the analysis.

[mastin2]

Slight V/LA until Sunday, via me being bogged down with things on all three days. This was another one of the busy weeks, sorry.

[mastin2]

Vote: Project Matt

. Might as well get a vote out.

Still reading. (Back from my V/LA.) Don't worry, I don't think I have too much stuff to do, just a few side-projects, really.

[mastin2]

/Prodded. Sorry. Between sickness, real life, and mod review, I don't have as much time as I normally would. Hence the delay. But I've got nothing to do for an hour and a half, am logged in, and in the thread. That'll get me working.

[mastin2]

Got through eight pages (taking notes slows me down, but they make for a good reference. My quicktopic might not be the largest I've ever made, but it's certainly among my more active ones), but I've run out of time for tonight. (Sorry.) You deserve at least this much:

redFF is looking worse by my notes. Red's only eclipsed by Fool_Hardy, who looks even WORSE. And to some extent, Xeras is looking suspicious as well.

I've concluded once and for all that David's without a doubt town.


Regrettably, that is all I can say solidly on the living players. I could tell you a lot about a few dead players (things which made Johhog town, things which made Kcdaspot town, a few hints at Estyn being town, etc.), and there are a few things I have seen which I am looking in to, but because they're not conclusive (that's what reading the later pages is for--to see these things and if any of them pan out), I don't have a conclusion on 'em, yet.

[mastin2]

You're not going to believe this.

I did a side-project for this game, figuring, "sure, why the heck not?" just for fun. It was meant to be an extremely subjective division of the players and randomly assigning the groupings I created a chance of scum. Pretty worthless, right? Then I cross-referenced the listings and came up with a few conclusions which most certainly were NOT.

-{Vifam, Matt} contains one scum. And probably only one scum. But no LESS than one. (No prizes for guessing which one I find is more likely...)
-{Foolish Fool, Empking, Xeras} has a decent chance of one scum, but pretty much zero chance of two scum.
-Thor's slot is confirmed town.
-As is TOGTFO's slot, for that matter.
-{Ironhead, Fat, redFF} contains one scum minimum. Potentially two, if {Foolish, Empking, Xeras} is all town. But no less than one.

Tl;dr, suspects are, roughly in order:

Matt
redFF
Xeras
Fat
Ironhead
Vifam
Foolish
Empking

(It's kinda hard to tell the order after Xeras, though. This is just a rough estimate of the order after that; it's kinda hard to be more exact than that.)

[mastin2]

Whoops. Completely forgot about this game for a while. My bad. Will get content after I've eaten something. (Just got up, and had the "Oh, crud!" moment when I realized it'd probably been days since my last post and that I didn't post last night.)

[mastin2]

I've changed my mind on something.

redFF's still scum, but Xeras is town. In Xeras's place is Foolish Fool. (Sowwy, Hayl.)

[mastin2]

For the curious--my last post was made when I was reading somewhere between 20 and 26. Probably could track down the exact page, since I was keeping notes. However, it is strengthened when you throw in the third scum name I have, projectmatt, who did this:

Page nine. I

retract

my town read on Johnhog for an overly defensive and just completely terrible attempt at a case on Vifam.

I have a fairly strong town read on Foolish Fool for seeming genuinely interested in catching the scum, but I guess it's more of a gut read. He just has this feeling about him that makes me believe he is town.

I am trying to post roughly every ten pages just so I can stay consistent with my thought process.

Ergo, reads as of the start of page nine:

Town: Empking, Foolish Fool,

Scum: Oversoul, Johnhog

[mastin2]

You'll be hearing more from me on Matt in my notes. But for now.

Page 19:

Argument between Johnhog and Vifam is one of the most pointless things I have ever had the displeasure of reading in my experience of playing mafia. I think Vifam is town after it, though. I think Johnhog sounded way too desperate to prove that he was in fact not looking at the thread, and he over reacted so badly it makes me want to quicklynch him. Oh, and accusing Vifam of a scumslip based off of nothing is even worse. +scum points to him. Also, please do not insult EM players. It is my home.

Vifam, are you scum?

What the

fuck was the point of asking this?

This was after the big argument. He doesn't focus on any other player aside from Vifam, he doesn't give reads, he doesn't show interest in scumhunting. He just wants to stir up trouble. Biggest scum read so far. I don't buy the reaction test.

Johnhog: Stop being a pretentious douchebag. Quoting the dictionary to prove a point? Really?

Mastin: Why did you have a town read on Johhog on page 13?

Town: Empking, David, Bomberman, Vifam, KDCA(?)*

Scum: John, Mastin, Oversoul(?)*

*reads that I am only somewhat sure on

He addresses Johhog as if he knows he will flip town, despite having Johhog as a strong scumread. "Stop being a jerk." doesn't translate to "I think you're scum." You NEVER think a scum player is a jerk, you think they're scum pushing an agenda. "Stop being a jerk" translates to you think they're TOWN, who you think is being, well, a jerk. There's also his part about singling out a single one of my reads. Why just Johhog? Why not any of my other reads? Why specifically page thirteen, when I had a Johhog townread from pretty much Johhog's first post?


Yeah. My vote's still on Matt, right?

[mastin2]

I listed my replacement as a scum read to see who would notice it and in what way they would react to it.

Ehh kinda. Bad excuse is BAD.

Are you going to keep calling me un-intelligent because I figured you out?

Oh great Matt, I'm scum and I don't know what to do now that you without any reasoning pinned me as scum. You have to be the god of Mafia!

No.

You think I am making excuses for myself and that I actually thought the person I replaced into was scum even though I made no mention of him in my re-read? At all? Are you fucking serious?

Shut up. This is why I want you lynched. You can't respond to my retorts, and you make condescending egotistical responses that insult whoever tries to even lightly attack you. You actually CAN'T RESPOND to them, and you won't admit it so you make sarcastic posts that still declare you as the winner. Get owned.

And stuff like this reinforces the point--he didn't want Johhog dead because he thought Johhog was scum (it was painfully obvious he was town, and I regret not being around to push my opinion on this harder to stop his obvious mislynch), he wanted Johhog dead on policy.

Kinda like he didn't like Bomberman, who he mysteriously read as town, despite the fact that the two situations were similar.

He lead a lynch on Johhog, on policy. Because he knew Johhog would flip town.

There's a reason I'm going to be building a case on him once I've caught up. There's a reason he's been my vote.

[mastin2]

I've changed my mind, again, based off of this.

John. Do my explanations make sense to you now?

Red, WHAT? If you can't even tell us why, why did you bother posting that? Why can't you tell us? Come on. Work with me here.

redFF's out. Ironhead's in. For those keeping track, it's now Matt, Ironhead, and Foolish Fool.

[mastin2]

BTW, fatlikepig is confirmed town. Look at the exchange between fat and Otolia on page 49--does that read as bussing to you?

Nope, didn't think so.

redFF is also prob-town for that same page, where he was discussed and Otolia said this:

But only town would be open about it.

I don't agree. If you wish you could explain your reasoning to me.

Additionally, his post below that makes Empking and Secret Project town as well.

Ironhead, on the other hand......

[mastin2]

Additional evidence for fatlikepig being town:

Fat was hesitant to vote for lewarcher, since he knew there was a possibility of lewarcher being a PR--for instance, an odd-night vig would have been a very plausible claim.

Scum would already know that lewarcher was scum, was going to die that day, and would prefer to get on the lynch wagon--ESPECIALLY when the alternative (Otolia) was ALSO scum.



In other words, fatlikepig is double-confirmed town.

lewarcher, Otolia, fatlikepig -- there are multiple scum in this group.

This is a classic bus. Ironhead is a smart guy. He can logically deduce that lewarcher is dead meat. He can also conclude that Otolia is a very, VERY likely future lynch. He is well-aware that two of his buddies are going to die, and logically, there is little point in trying to stop it (that draws attention to himself, setting himself up for a lynch), whereas if he pushes them, he looks town for the double-bus.

In other words, Ironhead logically concluded (correctly) that he needed to double-bus for town credit and push for a fatlikepig mislynch.


(PS: Still reading, but I do hope there has been no Godfather talk. Anyone who knows anything about Gunsmiths should know why.)

[mastin2]

Do I really need to read the next seven pages?

I sincerely doubt my reads will change. All I'll be doing are pointing out how Ironhead's prized logic looks like it comes from a scum-motivated mindset, fatlikepig is bleeding towntells, matt is as close as I can get to confirmed scum, etc.

I'm up to our current day, at the very least.

[mastin2]

Oversoul's 1365 makes a lot of what I've been saying redundant, since it kinda confirms exactly what I have been saying:

Foolish Fool, Ironhead, and Projectmatt are scum.


I'll do cross-referencing with my earlier notes to see if there's anything in there which makes this seem unlikely...but I honestly don't think there will be anything, since this seems so...so...right.

Mastin, VCA on Johhog, please?

I concluded that there were two scum on Johhog when he was at L-2. After Otolia hammered, I concluded that number was 3, out of five total. I'll give you a hint.

projectmatt

, Empking, Vifam, redFF, Xeras, David Xantos,

Oversoul, Hoppster

,

Ironhead

[mastin2]

PROJECTMATT MASTIN SCUMTEAM CALLED IT

...Then can you help me lynch my buddy?

So, SCUM PLAN: -Mislynch Fatlikepig. Pray that their members do not get caught. (3/12 tomorrow.)
-Mislynch Xeras. Pray that Ironhead is not lynched instead. (3/10 day after, if Ironhead is not lynched.)
-Mislynch me. (3/8 after this, if all goes well.)
-Mislynch ? for the win.

With the question mark being Vifam/Empking, since LLD's slot is no longer touchable. Though at the time of Page 57 (where I am reading), it was.

I can deduce this because both Ironhead and Matt have expressed interest in each other, while pushing Fat, Xeras, and myself as possible mislynches. I can quote examples of this if you want, but you can read those pages yourself and see that they're pretty desperate right now.

[mastin2]

I wanna lynch Matt.

But if it's between Ironhead and Fat...

Unvote, Vote: Ironhead

.
I suppose that now I'm through 59, I should work on a case to convince you all of the town/scum-reads I've just given, eh? Easy enough, now that I've gotten into rhythm.

[mastin2]

Let's review.

1. Empking <--Prob-town. His overall feeling is town. Hard to explain. Coupled with his interactions with scum looking favorable, I sincrely doubt he is scum.
2. Xeras <--Prob-town. Blocks mean he couldn't submit the kill. Interactions in various places with scum strongly suggest he is town.
3. Foolish Fool (Haylen + JordanA24) <--Probably not town. At first, it was process of elimination, but Jordan's posts came across as trying to coach, to be the middle ground in multiple townVtown fights, while letting them rip themselves to shreds. Kinda hard to explain, so I'll probably have to go into detail about this.
5. Nobody Special Vifam <--Prob-town. Vifam's Johhog interactions read as townVtown. Additionally, Vifam's interactions with scum players look favorable.
6. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan <--Confirmed town, as far as I'm concerned.
7. projectmatt Fool_Hardy <--Scum. Fool_Hardy tripped my scumdar from his first post. Project Matt continued the trend. I've touched the surface of why he's scum with my in-thread posting, but it's just the tip of the iceberg on this guy.
8. David Xanatos <--Prob-town. David's interactions here are a dead-ringer for Neruzian Era Big. I'm sure there are other games as well. Additionally, he kinda comes across as potential mislynch material for the scum.
9. Oversoul <--Confirmed town.
10. Ironhead MintKitten <--Prob-scum. His logic seems extremely motivated by a scum perspective on the game, as well as his suspicious interactions thusfar in the game.
11. TOGTFO LordChronos <--Pretty much confirmed town, as far as I'm concerned.
12. fatlikepig LTP Mafia <--Prob-town. His interactions with scum paint a STRONG picture of him being town.
13. evilpacman18 <--Confirmed town.
14. redFF <--Confirmed town.


Tl;dr: Ironhead, Project Matt, or Foolish Fool should be lynched today.

[mastin2]

Well, you're not.

[mastin2]

Searching for replacements for Foolish Fool and projectmatt.

Mod, is this true?

(Foolish Fool and Projectmatt both seemed to express interest in staying last I checked, even though they posted a little over three days ago.)

Assuming I'm correct, I'd rather not go up against two new scum players simultaneously. More than that, if I won, I'm sure both of them would not be very happy that they replaced into a guaranteed loss.

[mastin2]

Sure. Except for the whole "doubt myself and stay up until 5 am and hammer the last scum on the day of deadline in lylo" part.

It'd help if you voted Ironhead--he's only at 3 votes, versus Fat's 5. More we get on Ironhead, more likely we can leverage votes to him.

[mastin2]

Hurry!

Quicklynch Ironhead so we go into night with two inactive scum slots! Nobody will be around to send in a night-kill!

[mastin2]

I kinda already know what he'll be saying, though.

[mastin2]

Ah, so you ARE going for the "mislynch Mastin" path. In-thread, I knew you'd have one of two reactions.

1: Say there is very little to defend against from me. (Kinda sorta true, considering I haven't built the case, yet. ) But that I am now acting as typical town Mastin, annoying as that may be. This is the path you would take if you had given up on trying to mislynch me, and accepted that it was no longer possible to achieve. Logically, this was a viable option, since you have seen my play before, and are aware that I am more likely to think you are town if you essentially shrug off my attack. Additionally, having seen my play before, going down this path could potentially have turned me into an ally. (I might be forgetting a few of the details which made this a more logical choice, but you get the idea.)

2: Point out exactly what's wrong and try to point out exactly how full of holes my logic is. The obvious reason for choosing this path is, of course, to try and make me look less credible. If done well, at worst, it gives you extra time to live. At best, it makes me a suspect in the eyes of others. Logically, I can see why you thought it was a good idea to go down this path: you historically know my logic to be poor, and have access to me saying things which can grant you an advantage. For instance, you could try and make me look less credible at the cost of me never moving off of you. (Which it kinda looks like you're attempting to do.) In a battle of pure logic, you know yourself to be superior to me. Additionally, it makes logical sense to keep me as a suspect--if you accepted that I was town, that is one more mislynch you must shut down. Perhaps not permanently due to your "everyone's a suspect" meta (annoyingly null), but at least for a day or two, in which time I can devastate your scumteam, potentially, something you wish to avoid. (Like with the first, I'm probably forgetting a few details which make this position stronger logically than it seems right now, but you can still get the idea.)

Unfortunately for you, you chose the wrong path. Since you're forgetting one vital detail: I'm Mastin.



Out-of-thread, I'm going to assume since the neighborhood apparently has daytalk, the scum do as well.

And that your in-thread post has an equivalent QT post. Now, I'm not sure which of these you posted, but I'm betting you said something along the lines of one of these three:

1: "How. HOW DOES HE DO IT?!? When he has not a single scrap of credible evidence, when he has no conclusive logical proof, how does he manage to somehow figure it out?!?"

2: "HOW CAN HE READ THROUGH MY DISGUISE?!? I've spent endless hours perfecting my mask, putting up the most logical viewpoint I could muster, yet he manages to see through me and my true intentions. HOW?!?"

3: "How is it that one of our planned mislynches just managed to nail us?"

They all have the same answer: because I think differently than you.

Because I think differently, because I use things which aren't concrete, because I use things which are invisible on the surface, I can form conclusions which can devastate a scumteam. For instance, WormyKrew and Alduskkel fell to my wrath, despite my extremely poor logic. (I've additionally toppled Vollkan, and would've toppled Maxous as well had David listened to my scumlist rather than his own reads. )

Because I don't think logically, your mask of logic is absolutely seethrough to me. It helps that I was in a similar situation to you--this is your first scumgame, no? Breaking a solid streak of town, correct? Replacing into a situation which has become helpless? Yeah, I just had that in Flash Mafia 3, breaking my solid streak of town (in particular, VT) PMs. Because I've been through it, I know how people in said situation feel.

Additionally, you answered my questions. In much the way I was anticipating. What you couldn't have known (nor could I have known, either, until recently) is that by answering the questions about how you'd play as scum/town and what your plan was, you gave me your thought process and a view into your intentions. So, I can read your mind.

As for the third, that's because I've discovered now that I play better as a replacement than I do as an original player. "...But you're an original player in this game..." Technically, yes. I have been a player since the beginning. In practice, no. I was last on something like page five, active lurking just enough to avoid being replaced in this game. I was a dead slot, someone giving absolutely nothing. Like a newbie about to be replaced by a vet.

Effectively, I replaced myself. Reading 60 pages from scratch, with only glimpses into the future game. It effectively made me a replacement in this game. And as everyone knows, replacements tend to play better than who they replace, since they have a new, fresh, interesting perspective on the game and can work with material already established and come in with no personal biases already formed.

Because I looked at things in a way you couldn't have anticipated, I managed to see what you hadn't thought of, and from this all, I have nailed you, Ironhead.

(Though I must thank you. The realization that I play better as a replacement is new to me, as of this moment. That means I'll probably be playing more as a replacement in the future, to test this "mastin can nail the scum instantly upon replacing" theory I have.)



I'll point out how wrong Ironhead's defense is when I get around to making the case against all three. Though I really shouldn't need to; Ironhead's obvious scum at this point.

[mastin2]

Heh. Nice try, Matt, but you can't have the best of both worlds.

After I posted what Ironhead could do as scum, you tried to divide yourself 50/50--defending against me, while going out of your way to say that I'm town.

Which, of course, just makes things worse.


It's funny. The more Matt and Ironhead post, the more they continue to be scum. You'll see what I mean when I get around to making a case. (I'm a bit busy tonight, so probably not now. We'll see if I can get started tomorrow.)

[mastin2]

Indeed I was, Evil.

You yourself noted how Iron was playing differently in this game.

"I was the cop in that game." was all it took you to be convinced?

[mastin2]

Compare and contrast, me.

I was the doctor in that game.

Yet I'm not playing any differently. (Well, now that I've gotten my head in the game, anyway.)

It doesn't work as an excuse.

[mastin2]

WHO DO YOU THINK I HAVE A RESULT ON

/peeved

and the reason that I know everyone is confirmed town in the qt is that when Lew's slot was absent

immediately on day 1 when I was getting pressured I claimed gunsmith in the qt so they would get off my back.

I didn't die that night.

yesterday, hiplop claimed everyone in the qt. Why would he have to do that as scum if there was scum already in the qt? USE FUCKING LOGIC

Oversoul claimed on day one. If the neighborhood did not possess daytalk, Oversoul would've been modkilled. Oversoul hasn't been modkilled, therefore, neighbors have daytalk. Simple enough logic. And since they apparently have daytalk, it's logical to conclude scum do as well. Pretty simple stuff.

(As for the rest, I'll be addressing it. In the case. Which I am too busy tonight to start.)

[mastin2]

TOGTFO, have you read the thread title?
Deadline's tomorrow.

'Sides. Foolish Fool can't hammer, Fat probably won't, Ironhead despises self-hammering, and matt would probably prefer not to bus. Xeras might, though he's getting prodded. Then there's you. That's 13/14 accounted for.

If anything, I'd be worried about not having enough to hammer before deadline, not being worried about a premature hammer.

[mastin2]

Actually, they're not the basis of my scumhunting. They were meant as an augmentation, like all my other tools, ESPECIALLY since it was highly experimental.
I'll explain after I do the analysis of the questions--I haven't due to me needing to read the thread and now start building cases, but once I finish with the case, I'll begin. (Though by then, it'll probably be night; I don't think I can finish a case before deadline. Didn't realize it was so close.)

And I suppose the better word to use would be you wouldn't want to bus in a situation LIKE THIS, where you're pretty much screwed with a single scum lynch. Thanks for claiming scum, by the way. How do I know?

Funnily enough you're actually wrong on the point of me not liking to bus. If you want to meta my scum play read C9++, I bussed my scum partner hard on d1 in order to try to get a win for the rest of the game.

Matt knows Ironhead will flip scum. By bringing up his meta as scum-who-busses, by being off of the wagon, he can hopefully get a little suspicion off of himself. He's basically admitted that, yes, Ironhead is scum, and that yes, he is as well.

[mastin2]

Seems believable enough. Oversoul, you'll live to see tomorrow.

Foolish Fool visiting you is interesting. It can't be a scum kill, yet they already knew your role, so not something like rolecop. I *think* this makes them town, but I can't make sense of it.

Hopefully, Ironhead is scum. If he's not, you've got a limited pool to work from: Vifam (no, as Vifam's probably town)
6. Lady Lambadelta (no, as I consider Thor confirmed town)
7. projectmatt (Yes)
12. fatlikepig (possible)

So, if Ironhead is town, you have a 3/4 chance of hitting scum. If Ironhead's scum, you have a 2/4 chance of hitting scum, with the additional condition that fatlikepig is extremely unlikely to the point where he might be able to be eliminated from the list and make it 2/3.

(See also--Foolish Fool probably not scum.)

[mastin2]

Wait, forgot Xeras. Him not being blocked last night means he's in the potential suspects, and with Foolish Fool apparently being town, that's more likely than it was before.


...But still. Worst case scenario, 3/5. Best case scenario, 2/5 or 2/4.

I'd say investigation order priority would be {Matt, Xeras, Vifam, Thor} (most to least) if Ironhead's scum, {Matt, Fat, Xeras, Vifam, Thor} if he's not. Mainly because a lot of my scum/town reads do admittedly hinge on Matt being scum--if I'm wrong about that, I'd rather find out about it sooner rather than later. (That said, I don't think I am. Between Ironhead and Matt, I'm 95% sure there's at least one scum, and ~85% sure they're both scum.)

[mastin2]

He's still town, though.

What, you don't need roles to form these conclusions. He was town before the apparent innocent.

[mastin2]

Dang it, Oversoul, you weren't actually supposed to SAY Foolish Fool was a roleblocker today; I was smart enough to figure that out already. (It's in my Quicktopic, because I didn't want to say it publicly.)

And I can't think of anyone other than TOG who fished you--but I'll double-check. I also disagree with the buddying with Otolia and Foolish Fool. Foolish was the one doing most of the buddying, and the only person I can think of who did it mutually was me. Additionally, Otolia was so obv-scum, a scumbuddy trying to protect him would be down-right suicidal.

Ironhead, though, I do agree with.

[mastin2]

Got anything for us Oversoul?

If Oversoul didn't get a positive result -- or even if he did -- let's not lynch anyone until everyone has actively re-joined the game. Yesterday, we let three players get by without posting at all: Foolish Fool, Vifam, and Lady Lambadelta. This, in combination with the unreliability of the GM's deadlines, is crushing this game. This is one of the slowest and most boring games I've seen on this site.

@GM: Have Foolish Fool and Vifam responded to their prods? Do we have a replacement for LLD yet?

And possibly

honestly mastin2 has done absolutely nothing this game, promised huge amounts of analysis and not delivered. People seem to be totally ignoring his lurking/non contribution and I don't understand.

so
VOTE: mastin2

We're waiting for Oversoul to tell us who the scum are.

Are pre-reveal fishes. They all have a different tone, so it's kinda hard to read them.

Fat Just kinda accepts it.

I also disagree stridently with many of Oversoul's reads. I think Xeras, mastin2, TOGTFO, and David Xanatos are high probability to be scum (vis-a-vis the rest of the town). I'm also unconvinced that evilpacman18 is town simply by virtue of being in the neighborhood. Meanwhile, I'm not so sold on Foolish Fool, projectmatt, or fatlikepig being scum.

My reads:

TOWN
Oversoul (isn't yet 100% confirmed, but close -- I doubt a scum would bus two of his partners)
redFF (don't much like his play, but Oversoul vouches for him and I don't think he is a SK)

Relevent pieces quoted. Foolish and Matt are both on his "not likely to be scum" list. Additionally, look at the wording on redFF. "but Oversoul vouches for him" doesn't sound like "but Oversoul has him as confirmed town". It sounds like "but Oversoul is calling him confirmed town even though he has no way of knowing." Yeah, Ironhead's a scum lynch.

[mastin2]

Doesn't address the result.

Speaking of the result.

oversoul why did you check me.

This is not scum who knows the result cannot be true. This is not scum who is trying to take advantage of being confirmed town. This is town who wants to know exactly why Oversoul would waste an investigation on them.

Ohh, is it because of this?

redFF (don't much like his play, but Oversoul vouches for him and I don't think he is a SK)

This is what I mean by skepticism. I am reading redFF as town because he is cleared by Oversoul's result (which can only be wrong if Oversoul is lying or redFF is SK). I addressed the issue of Oversoul lying in the line above this one, where I indicated that I doubt Oversoul is scum; and the last part of this line addressed the issue of redFF being SK. By addressing both, I eliminate the remaining doubt, satisfying skepticism.

And to clarify, I actually don't have any reason to think redFF is acting

too townie

to be SK; it's just that there clearly isn't an SK (unless maybe it is one of the inactives). If we

were

seeing multiple kills each night, I would be far more suspicious of redFF being SK.

The SK talk feels like it's there to hide the fact that Ironhead is showing more skepticism towards the claimed result than he really ought to have.

[mastin2]

Come to think of it,

I think Oversoul is town. Not just because he lynched the mafia but just because of his explanations as to why he investigated so and so.

I think that Ironhead's latest posts sound very forced in tone, specifically this quote. I'm not dedicated to a vote on him quite yet, though.

Before I clicked "submit" on that last post, it occurred to me that it may be interpreted it as a scummy approach to faux scumhunting. I submitted it anyway, because at this point any activity is pro-town and any inactivity is inherently anti-town.

Mastin bothers me, if he doesn't give the analysis he promises I want him lynched, but I honestly like to hold people on their promises, so I'm waiting for some kind of content.

Empking and Oversoul are town. Not because they lynched mafia but because Oversoul's explanation of why he did made me lean so.

David also towntold earlier as well.

Xeras is probably scum just because of gut. I need to read more of this thread because I'm disconnected.

This BLEEDS of inside information.

[mastin2]

And...

I think that Ironhead's latest posts sound very forced in tone, specifically this quote. I'm not dedicated to a vote on him quite yet, though.

Before I clicked "submit" on that last post, it occurred to me that it may be interpreted it as a scummy approach to faux scumhunting. I submitted it anyway, because at this point any activity is pro-town and any inactivity is inherently anti-town.

Goes to...

Vote: fatlikepig

Town vibes from Iron's latest post. This is good.

With Iron's only post?

Basically admitting he is scum, trying to appear productive when he was aware he was not.

[mastin2]

I don't get why everyone hates your play. We've owned scum twice now.

You have your ups (this game), you have your downs. (...Other...games. ) One minute, I can cream the entire scumteam, the next, I am instrumental in their eventual victory. Really fluctuates between games, but like I said, I think I tend to be better as a replacement. The later I replace, the better. (Come to think of it, I won Sexy Sedilla by basically clearing myself of my biases and reading the game from the start, with a little VCA thrown in. By basically being a replacement.)

[mastin2]

1. Empking <--Prob-town.
2. Xeras <--Lots of little things suggest he is town.
3. Foolish Fool (Haylen + JordanA24) <--Confirmed Mafia Roleblocker, auto-lynch tomorrow.
5. Nobody Special Vifam <--Prob-town.
6. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan <--Practically confirmed town.
7. projectmatt Fool_Hardy <--Pretty much guaranteed scum.
8. David Xanatos <--I'm going to eliminate David from my future scum lists.
10. Ironhead MintKitten <--Lynched. Practically confirmed scum.
12. fatlikepig LTP Mafia <--Pretty much guaranteed town if Ironhead flips scum.
14. redFF <--He's not as town as he was (kinda hard to be more town than "confirmed town" ), but he's still effectively confirmed town as far as I'm concerned.

Yeah, this game's way too easy.

[mastin2]

Well, I better post before I get prodded.

Why do you guys think that OS hasn't been killed yet, despite being an investigative role?

Why do you guys think that OS hasn't been killed yet, despite being an investigative role?

Because either (a) he's been protected, repeatedly, by a doc or similar role (and we have a third party to account for the killing each night); or (b) he's scum who bused two of his partners; or (c) scum are playing WIFOM games with us to try to discredit him.

I think (a) and (b) are extremely low probability, and think it is likely (c).

Why do you think he's still alive?

This is noteworthy. Still think Xeras is town (see also: how hard Ironhead pushed his lynch), still think Ironhead is scum. (See also: ...Pretty much anything he's said since he locked onto Johhog. )

[mastin2]

I shouldn't forget this as well.

BTW, fatlikepig is confirmed town. Look at the exchange between fat and Otolia on page 49--does that read as bussing to you?

Nope, didn't think so.

redFF is also prob-town for that same page, where he was discussed and Otolia said this:

But only town would be open about it.

I don't agree. If you wish you could explain your reasoning to me.

Additionally, his post below that makes Empking and Secret Project town as well.

Ironhead, on the other hand......

[mastin2]

Whoever killed Pine is like confirmed town

Hence, why they shouldn't claim, though I have a decent idea for who they are.

Anyway. VOTE: Project Matt. Pretty sure this'll end the game in a town win.

[mastin2]

Oversoul, you've made my job significantly easier.

See, I had concluded last night that the last scum was 41% redFF, 39% Empking, 19% on NS/Vifam, and 1% on someone else.

Empking is now clear.

So, now that I have 40% extra...

60% redFF, 30% NS/Vifam, and 10% on someone else. (In order from most to least, {David, Xeras, Thor, Fat}.)


So.

VOTE: redFF.

[mastin2]

Oh, wait.

Unvote

.

It's not a "last scum".

It's worse.

It's a Serial Killer.


Different kill method+four dead scum+crossreferencing Neruzian which only had one extra player = SK.

In that case...

VOTE: Secret Project/Evilpacman.

Oversoul, you're obviously not a SK-Gunsmith, or a SK-faking-Gunsmith. But think about it. Hoppster was in your neighborhood and was a PR. You were a PR. Lew/Hiphop was a Mafia Goon. So...what is Secret/Evil? "Just a neighbor"? No, think about it. He's far more likely to be a serial killer than pretty much any other player.

It also makes sense. Think about it. Scum had daytalk in Neruzian to compensate for their small size. If this game is the same way, then scum with daytalk makes sense. (The only thing against this is hiplop posting in-thread the teams, but still, the theory makes overall more sense to me.)

Heck, Scum-With-Daytalk is the latest fad among Large Normals. (The fad before that being "two scumgroups".) You have daytalk, scum having it to counter you makes logical sense.

So, no more mafia; they died with Pine. Think about it, Oversoul--why have you continued to live? When TOGTFO only had a single doc protect, which was presumably used up the night Pine died? Instead of you? It not only means the Serial Killer is not threatened by you, but that you are more of an asset to them than TOGTFO, or (if I were somehow wrong) Secret Project/Evil. You've probably cleared the thought of Evil out of your mind as a suspect, haven't you? Why kill a great ally?

And, hey. The temptation to have a neighborhood with an SK and mafia in it is generally way too high for most mods to resist.



Tl;dr,

Secret Project/evilpacman is the most likely Serial Killer, and therefore, the ideal lynch today.

[mastin2]

To make sure it's not missed.

VOTE: evilpacman18.

[mastin2]

Fucking SKs

Yeah, I really can't hunt them, either.

You said you claimed you knew where the shot on Pine came from yesterday, is it redFF?

My first guess was Evil. My second guess was TOGTFO lying about an ability and possessing a vig. My third guess was one of {redFF, Empking, Xeras, NS}. I don't think I thought of Thor or David.

Why wouldn't SK kill the JK and just run it off as oh the scum in the neighborhood must have leaked?

Hide their presence. Not let anyone know there was a serial killer. Or, it's possible that the serial killer targeted the jailkeep target.

Though...come to think of it...


...Wasn't Xeras blocked night one and two?

Unvote, VOTE: Xeras.

[mastin2]

Wait, nevermind.

Night 1:
Jailed DavidX
Investigated Lew - Positive

Night 2:
Jailed Empking
Investigated Otolia - Positive

One of these is the jailed SK, the other is a failed SK hit. My money's with you, Oversoul. So, UNVOTE: , to what I should've done.

VOTE: David Xanatos.

[mastin2]

Nobody visited Xeras D1.
Nobody visited Hoppster D2.

These results are likely valid. Though it's not that helpful; he was a scum watcher, rather than tracker. But still, these results have importance.

[mastin2]

ORDER OF SK LIKELIHOOD:

6. David Xanatos
1. Empking
2. Xeras
5. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan
4. Nobody Special Vifam
10. redFF
8. fatlikepig LTP Mafia
9. evilpacman18 (BUT THIS IS ON YOUR WORD OVERSOUL; HE WOULD BE NUMBER THREE IF NOT FOR YOU.)

[mastin2]

So, the way I see it.

The scum kill Estyn, for whatever reason.
The serial killer is either blocked or target-stopped.
Nobody targeted Xeras.

Bv successfully protects one of the neighbors, probably Hoppster, since Oversoul was likely going to be protected.

According to Otolia, nobody visited Hoppster. The scum tried to kill Oversoul, but were intercepted by BV.
The serial killer is either blocked or target stopped.

Hoppster protects Oversoul.
The scum kill Hoppster, obviously.
Yet the serial killer's kill...is gone. Either the player in question no-actioned, or they tried to take out Oversoul.

Pine tries to kill Oversoul (?), but is stopped by TOGTFO. He blocks someone else. (?) (This is where things begin to make less sense.)
The serial killer takes out Pine.

No other actions interfer with the Serial Killer taking out TOGTFO.


Can't fully make sense of this data, yet. But yeah, does look like David/Empking are prime serial killer material.

[mastin2]

Oh, forgot to factor in the mafia's roleblocks N1 and N2. They had no clue there was a serial killer until after they had all been wiped out, so we won't find clues in their ISOs. I doubt we'll figure out who they blocked, either, but their blocks add an unknown factor in. We know who they targeted N3, of course.

But, yeah.

[mastin2]

People who still need to be replaced:
Lady Lambadelta

If it's not David.
If it's not Empking.

Pretty much has to be the slot which originally was calling itself Indy-aligned town, since that was the only slot inactive during the night in question.

If that was a sarcastic confession and/or a scumslip, I'd laugh so hard.

[mastin2]

NEW ORDER OF SK LIKELIHOOD:

6. David Xanatos
1. Empking
5. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan
2. Xeras
4. Nobody Special Vifam
10. redFF
8. fatlikepig LTP Mafia

(Since Thor's slot was inactive through N1-3, it is possible that would explain the lack of SK kills. Add in Bomberman's Indy-aligned town [and, hey, if he's as similar to me as he seems, he probably considers SKs to be pro-town ] comment, and he's more likely to be the SK than Xeras.)

[mastin2]

gives it to me gives it to me!!

But it's his! It's his own. It's his precious...

[mastin2]

Estyn, Vanilla Townie, paradoxed to death Night 1
bvoigt whiTE_Teaz, Bodyguard, paradoxed to death Night 2
Hoppster Kcdaspot, Jailkeeper, paradoxed to death Night 3

Pine Foolish Fool (Haylen + JordanA24), Mafia Roleblocker, chiasmused to death Night 4.
TOGTFO LordChronos, Jack of All Trades, chiasmused to death Night 5.

Note the change in kill techniques. Unless the scum have individual methods of killing and somehow managed to kill themselves, Pine aint a scum kill.

Another mafia faction is impossible; they'd need three to four members, and this game is too small to have seven to eight scum.

Furthermore, game balance dictates it. Look at Neruzian Era Big. The power roles within are about equal to what we've had, and the scumteam was also about equal to what we've had, and they also had daytalk there to make up for their small size.

(They had vig, we had a half-vig. They had a bodyguard, we had a bodyguard. They had a tracker/watcher combo, we have a gunsmith. They had a day-powered role, we have neighbors with day talk. We also had a jailkeeper and a JOAT. They had a mafia jailkeeper, we had a mafia roleblocker. Their serial killer was immune to the investigation roles of Tracker/Watcher, our serial killer is immune to gunsmith investigations. Seems roughly equal balance-wise, no?)

And it had a Serial Killer.

Tl;dr, it's a Serial Killer.


Since it's a Serial Killer (which sucks, since they're far harder to catch), there's no last scum member.

It can't be Oversoul; his gunsmith results were too dang accurate to be faked, and a TRIPLE-role SK is pretty much unheard of. (How triple? SK-Gunsmith-Neighbor. Neighbor counts as a role.)

Oversoul says it's not Evil, and I'm willing to trust him on that.

Evidence strongly implies that either the Serial Killer had their kill prevented for three nights (making Empking/David targets/the targeter), or that the SK simply wasn't around and isn't compulsive.

(Since when did people start wimping out about their Serial Killers? >_< Back in my day, the standard was compulsive for SKs, not compulsive for vigilantes; now it seems that people cry out in shock and horror to learn they must kill every night. :/)

Tl;dr, lynch David.

[mastin2]

@Mastin - 6 scum (5 maf, 1 SK) vs. 14 town with 5+ PRs while Mafia get a Watcher, a RBer, and also have the SK as a threat? Sounds like we should take very little pride in stomping that weak arse mafia team into the ground, yeah?

You got a better idea?

'Cause I really can't see anything else.

Wait, six scum? We've only have four scum flip. My my, do I detect a slip?

But yeah. Mafia RB and Mafia Watcher with daytalk is reasonably balanced, against relatively weak town PRs. Gunsmith can get false positives and misses the SK. Vig was even-night only. Bodyguards die when they do their job. Our strongest roles have been the JOAT (Investigate, Watch, and Doc) and the Jailkeeper. Scum neighbor+scum daytalk (if existing like I think it does) kinda counters the neighborhood's value. (Or, well, would've, had the scum member not been the first one outed. )

With one full-protective role, one half-protect, have-preventative role, a scum watcher to catch actions, a one-shot doc and a one-shot watch to catch actions, plus a scum preventative role...

...Those are ALL things which work to balance out the SK, making their chances of getting a kill in unlikely. Let's not forget to factor in the possibility of double night-kills, though last I checked, NAR requires both kills to show up in the flavor. (It was brought up in Demon Hybrid's game, so unless the rule has changed, no double-kills have occured yet, though they could and game balance is built on "could".)

Balance isn't my strongsuit (as a few certain people can attest to >_<), but in my head, it seems to make relatively enough sense.

[mastin2]

My first thought was a Wild Mass Guess that Thor+Empking were somehow scum together and that Empking's block of you was blocked by Hoppster's.

When I realized just how absurd that theory was, I dropped the idea, since it'd require 1: a six-man scumteam AND a serial killer, plus 2: a second scum roleblocker.


So, yeah. I have no clue.

[mastin2]

My thoughts are that Thor's claim is probably true, since he is claiming things which'd be suicidal if he didn't already know--for him to know about Oversoul, and for him to know about an unclaimed role. If either of those were wrong, he'd be dead.

Theoretically, I suppose it'd be possible for him to be SK-Voyear, but, well...seems a bit doubtful. And he can't be scum. Why?

Mafia Watcher, that's why. The mafia wouldn't have a Watcher AND a Voyear; they're effectively the same role.

And...well, I suppose it'd kinda make sense. Mafia Watcher, town Voyear. Mafia roleblocker, town jailkeeper. Kinda creates some symmetry.


As for Empking--I'm really not sure. I thought of something which made me think town, there's other things which suggest scum.

Regardless. I believe the correct move right now would be for the tracker to claim (even though I have a good idea who they are), since there's really no reason not to.

ORDER OF SK LIKELIHOOD:

6. David Xanatos
1. Empking
2. Xeras
4. Nobody Special Vifam
10. redFF
5. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan
8. fatlikepig LTP Mafia

Something like that. Exact order may vary, with Xeras through redFF.


If you want it in terms of Mafia, then it goes something like this:

10. redFF
4. Nobody Special Vifam
2. Xeras

6. David Xanatos

Don't think I'm forgetting any players. Oversoul and EPM can't be mafia, I'm not mafia, Empking's clear of being mafia, Thor's claim makes him not mafia, fatlikepig's Otolia/Ironhead interaction makes him not mafia. David's doubtful, Xeras doesn't look that bad, NS looks semi-bad, and redFF is my main suspect through reading scum ISOs.

[mastin2]

I had forgotten about that.

Neighborhood wouldn't have two scum unless it was SK-scum. Not mafia, though.

And Empking is still cleared, no? Last I checked.

Point about Ironhead's valid, too.

In short, One of NS/David is mafia. And--heck--they both have a good chance of being an SK, too, so both are viable lynches.


Tl;dr, lynch David.

[mastin2]

1. Empking <--Gunsmith result.
2. Xeras <--Probably not scum since Iron was pushing his lynch pretty hard.\4. Nobody Special Vifam
5. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan <--Voyear.
6. David Xanatos
7. Oversoul <--Gunsmith-Neighbor.
8. fatlikepig LTP Mafia <--Otolia interaction.
9. evilpacman18 <--Neighbor.
10. redFF <--Interactions.

See?

[mastin2]

1. Empking <--Chances of being SK virtually zero. He wouldn't NK someone like that when he knew he'd be the center of attention.
3. Nobody Special Vifam <--Chances of being scum...pretty dang high.
4. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan <--Chances of being scum...debating.
6. fatlikepig LTP Mafia <--Not mafia. Could be SK, with the NK.
7. evilpacman18 <--Not mafia; we already had one mafia in the neighborhood.
8. redFF <-- Not Mafia, based on interactions.

So, SCUM SUSPECTS:
NS or Thor.

SK SUSPECTS:
NS
redFF
Thor
fat
Evil
Empking.

Roughly in that order.

VOTE: Nobody Special. No offense, man, but you're expendable.

[mastin2]

(Yeah, bad username pun, but he's at the top of both lists since he has the least in his favor. But there's more.

I'm almost ready to call Empking town. Almost.
And Thor's argument for EPM [that he would know who to avoid trying to NK] is a pretty good one.
That leaves four suspects for SK. Two of them are cleared from being mafia.
We've had no tracker claim, despite Thor claiming there to be one. Therefore, the tracker must be mafia.

There are only two suspects for mafia. If NS flips "Mafia Tracker", Thor's confirmed-Voyear. If NS flips anything else, then we'll know Thor's claim was BS and that HE is likely a Mafia Tracker.

Tl;dr, an NS lynch generates the most information right now.)

[mastin2]

Would make sense against the strong town power, would it not?

You said it yourself. The town's a bit overpowered.

[mastin2]

I can't read minds.

You could always compare my play here to Pally, since I was in control after Pine flaked (which is somewhere around D3 onward). You tell me.

[mastin2]

I change my mind.

Fat's the SK.

Unvote, Vote: fatlikepig

.

[mastin2]

You fit Thor's "Bottom of the suspect list" mold, for starters. And not thinking there's any mafia left.

[mastin2]

BTW, Xeras suspected EPM and Oversoul, with some redFF thrown in as well. Worth lookin' into, though I still think it's fat right now.

[mastin2]

It's actually multiple things in here.

Have we considered that the SK could potentially be X-shot? May explain the lack of two NKs early on in the game.

I'm slightly unconvinced of there being five mafia, four plus SK already seems pretty weighted against the town. I realise that we had awesome PRs, but even so I have trouble believing that there needs to be so much counterbalance.

If two teams still exist, though, scum may not be killing to avoid NK WIFOM or to slip under the radar while we go SK hunting. Or tet could be hitting protective roles, which is still possible.

[mastin2]

Is there any reason why you think Fat is the SK other than today's posts?

Haven't looked at his previous day posts, yet, so no. (Then again, since the SK, I haven't looked at anyone's previous day posts other than an ISO or two to check facts.)

But, yeah.

You pretty much nailed my thought on the Xeras kill, Mastin (the wifom).

I don't like

Empking

, redFF, and Fat in that order.

1. Empking <--Chances of being SK virtually zero. He wouldn't NK someone like that when he knew he'd be the center of attention.
3. Nobody Special Vifam <--Chances of being scum...pretty dang high.
4. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan <--Chances of being scum...debating.
6. fatlikepig LTP Mafia <--Not mafia. Could be SK, with the NK.
7. evilpacman18 <--Not mafia; we already had one mafia in the neighborhood.
8. redFF <-- Not Mafia, based on interactions.

I'm almost ready to call Empking town. Almost.
And Thor's argument for EPM [that he would know who to avoid trying to NK] is a pretty good one.
That leaves four suspects for SK. Two of them are cleared from being mafia.

You fit Thor's "Bottom of the suspect list" mold, for starters. And not thinking there's any mafia left.

BTW, Xeras suspected EPM and Oversoul, with some redFF thrown in as well. Worth lookin' into, though I still think it's fat right now.

Tell me, which of these did you agree with?

How come Empking's at the top of your list despite almost everything I say putting him near the bottom?

[mastin2]

Empking's almost certainly town. He might not give off the impression of being good on the surface, but he's a really good player, with the experience to know what to do, so it's not him.

I'm getting close to eliminating Evil from the list as well. Both because of neighborhood interaction and level of competency.
You're a gunsmith, and wouldn't be a triple-role (Neighbor-Gunsmith-SK, possibly Neighbor-Gunsmith-SK-with-some-immunity), so it's not you.

NS is an experienced player, sure, but he has a bit of a reputation for...umm...shall we say...not being a strong player?
Fat does have some experience, but not much compared to everyone else. (Might be worth looking in to.)
Thor has a lot for and against him.
redFF isn't exactly a newb, either. He's the

newest player here if I'm not mistaken

(actually, technically, you are Oversoul, though I know you have played in a lot more games than most people), but his join date is still relatively old, giving him six months of on-site experience.

...I'm far too tired right now (overworked, underslept, you know, that kind of thing) to make any sense of that.

[mastin2]

Admittedly?

If I didn't have NK immunity, I'd kill Pine before he'd kill

me

. He ALWAYS kills me as scum.
But, yeah. If I had NK immunity, Pine'd be the last person I'd kill. He was--after all--my intended lynch the next day.

And Xeras kill would make no sense. Xeras was pushing for an Oversoul/EPM lynch (with some redFF thrown in as well). As the SK, I'd want to try and lynch Xeras for doing something so stupid. And even if I failed to lynch Xeras, then he might help mislynch EPM with me taking far less blame than if, say, I spearheaded it. Plus, it'd be one more player for me to defend Oversoul against, and that'd make Oversoul think I was more town.

Oversoul & Mastin: Can you ask any Tracker to come out, please.

We did. Earlier. We got nothing.

He's making experience cases to clear people but lists me as a suspect still because...Thor isn't experienced? The hell?

Read again and tell me where I say you're inexperienced.

It's not there. As I said in that post, I wasn't very coherent at the time. (Still aren't, just am...a little more awake than I was. ) But you'll note you're not the only one I make no mention of experience on: Oversoul was there as well. It was technically there with EPM, but more as a side-remark than a significant point. And it contributed to Empking as well, but was once more not the focus point, not by a longshot.

I was trying to compile reasons for-and-against people being the SK. I had intended to focus primarily on experience when starting the post, but later decided to include more general stuff as well. And as I said, there's a lot for and against you being the SK.

[mastin2]

Let me paraphrase fat for you.

"There's strong evidence that Thor is scum, but I'm just going to ignore it all for the easier lynch of NS!"



Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah......

(My vote's still on him, right?)

[mastin2]

6. fatlikepig LTP Mafia
4. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan
8. redFF
3. Nobody Special Vifam
7. evilpacman18
1. Empking

Rough suspect order right now. {Empking, Evil} are practically interchangeable for towniness, and {redFF, NS} are almost interchangeable with nullness.

[mastin2]

mastin: Tell me briefly why I should trust you?

You asked this back when we were hunting mafia. To which you can tell by my ISO alone the answer. (I knew Pine/Foolish Fool was scum before it was obvious, and I pushed the Ironhead lynch hard.)

Now that it's a SK...

...Well, quite frankly, you can't. I suck at SK hunting; all my normal scumtells (except possibly Tone) simply don't work.



I just had a random thought.

We KNOW that Neighbors don't flip as neighbors, right?
And we KNOW the Neighbors have daytalk, correct?

Well. Look at the Night One kill. Estyn, a null-to-scum-read for most people, and not a threat at all.
Why was Estyn killed?

Is it possible we have a second neighborhood? One which had Estyn, a scum member, and the Serial Killer in it?


Also. I'm beginning to think the title of the game might have a vague meaning. "Mirror Mafia" had a meaning--mirrored scumteams, and pretty much mirrored roles. "Tricycle Mafia" was named after the "third wheel mason". Mafia On Werewolf Island is...kinda self-explanatory.

What if the name "OxyMoron" has to do with the setup? Something which makes no sense and seemingly contradicts itself?

[mastin2]

Let's see.
Four neighbors.
Two PRs, one scum, one ?

Two blocking roles. (Roleblocker+Jailkeeper.)
Two (plus one partial) protection roles. (Jailkeeper+Bodyguard, plus partially via Watcher.)
Oddball-EvenNightVig.
Oddball-JOAT, with Watch/Cop/Doc, which is (respectively) a weak investigation/protection, strong investigation, and strong protection.
One proven investigation role, with a partial-investigation role. (Gunsmith+Watcher.)
It would've made sense for there to have been an Odd-night serial killer, but consecutive kills threw that out. (Given the number of claimed track/watch roles, maybe Odd-night Ninja?)
It also makes sense to have one additional investigation role, because that'd create a partial symmetry.

We have two claimed, from the same person. Voyear--weak(er) investigation--and tracker: weak investigation.
That'd create three investigation roles, with a fourth partial.


...Actually...


Four neighbors, with two power roles. Four and Two. With one scum in them. (And both power roles in there are the strongest town PRs in the game.)
Two protection roles. Two. With a partial third who was scum.
Two blocking roles. Two. With one scum.
Four claimed investigation roles, with three of them being weak to varying degrees. With one scum in them.
Plus two town oddballs, one adding an additional investigation, protection, and protestigation (protect-investigation).


...I don't get it. Each category seems to have one scum in it. Meaning, the tracker

should

be town, yet...we've got no tracker claim.



Hold on for a sec. I need to look at something. I've got a theory in my head. If I'm right, all of {Evil, Oversoul, Nobody Special, Thor} would be town. And if that were to be the case, then the scum would have to be Empking/redFF. Be back soon.

[mastin2]

Forgot fat as well. Fat's a suspect, too.


I'm going to be taking another look at things, but I think I've got an idea of what's going on.

[mastin2]

Claim: Voyeur

Night 1 - watched DX - he was jailkept
Night 2 - watched Oversoul - he was protected and roleblocked
Night 3 - watched redFF - he was tracked
Night 4 - watched Foolish Fool - he was nightkilled
Night 5 - watched Oversoul - no actions targeted him.

I'm not sure what to make of N2 for Oversoul. Jailkept shows up as being Jailkept, so it wasn't that he was JK'd N2. The protection therefore has to be BV, but no nightkill shows up, leaving to the possibility that the scum killed BV for whatever reason. (Note: investigate the possibility of a BV-Estyn-Scum-SK neighborhood which we didn't know about since they both got NK'd before the neighborhood we know of was outed.
If said scum were Foolish Fool, it is possible the SK killed them to prevent them from outing the neighborhood. And this would create a further layer of symmetry. One VT in each, one protective role in each, one blocking role in each, and one mafia in each. The only thing missing would be the investigation role...)

I don't remember what was said by Oversoul for the Roleblock, but from skimming Thor's ISO, it seems Oversoul confirmed his result.

redFF was tracked N3.

This was the day Otolia was lynched. NS was still Vifam, Thor was still LLD.
Hmm...

-- Thor: who is your biggest town read thus far?
-- Xeras: What are your thoughts about potentially being lynched for your inactivity?
-- Xeras: Why did you switch votes from Bomberman to a different player just because Bomberman was no longer in the game?
--Oversoul: Why are you being so stingy with your vote?
--Foolish Fool: If you had to lynch one player RIGHT NOW, who would it be?

I am confused. Why are both Oversoul AND mastin not on mastin's SK list?

In other words, why should I trust the two of you?

While Xanatos is the current big wagon, I really think Empking looks worse. And my interactions with Empking over time have been less than pleasant. I don't think he's very pro-town this game.

I pretty much believe Thor's claim.

I'm curious why you asked this of those two players, specifically.

Nobody Special, you're the tracker, aren't you? You don't trust me and Oversoul, we were the main two asking for the Tracker to claim, the tracker result Thor has matches with Vifam's suspects...

[mastin2]

Four neighbors.
Two PRs, one scum, one ?
Two blocking roles. ([Mafia] Roleblocker+Jailkeeper.)
Two (plus one partial) protection roles. (Jailkeeper+Bodyguard, plus partially via [Mafia] Watcher.)
Oddball-EvenNightVig.
Oddball-JOAT, with Watch/Cop/Doc, which is (respectively) a weak investigation/protection, strong investigation, and strong protection.
One proven investigation role, with a partial-investigation role. (Gunsmith+[Mafia] Watcher.)
It makes sense to have one additional investigation role, because that'd create a partial symmetry.

We have two claimed, from the same person. Voyear--weak(er) investigation--and tracker: weak investigation.
That'd create three investigation roles, with a fourth partial.

Four neighbors, two power roles. Four and Two. With one scum in them. (And both power roles in there are the strongest town PRs in the game.)
Two protection roles. Two. With a partial third who was scum.
Two blocking roles. Two. With one scum.
Four claimed investigation roles, with three of them being weak to varying degrees. With one scum in them.
Plus two town oddballs, one adding an additional investigation, protection, and protestigation (protect-investigation).

What I'm gathering from all of this.

1. Empking <--Not Mafia. Possible SK.
3. Nobody Special Vifam <--Tracker?
4. Thor665 Lady Lambadelta BomberMan <--Voyear; not mafia. SK looking less likely.
6. fatlikepig LTP Mafia <--Suspect number one.
8. redFF <--Suspect number two.



Yeah, NS. You might as well claim. If you don't trust me or Oversoul, then look at pretty much anyone else you would trust and if they want you to claim. It's becoming quite obvious.
Sorry for the PR-outing, but if I'm right, I think I just broke the game.

[mastin2]

Yeah. Considering my experience with the close cousin of communters, Hiders (the last legitimate hider I saw was in Mirror Mafia, if memory serves--every. single. claim. since. then. faked!), I want to lynch Fat on principle just alone.
And that he claimed even-night when we already had an even-night flip with no odd-night to counter it.
And that his role further imbalances the setup in favor of the town.
And that his role makes much more sense as a scumclaim.
And I think there's another point or two which I had in mind that I can't remember right now. Regardless,

Confirm VOTE: fatlikepig.

[mastin2]

Heh. I

knew

Evil was a PR of some kind. (The only question I have for the mod is "Why wasn't Otolia's watcher slot in the neighborhood instead of a lew/hip's goon?" )

Anyway, obviously you don't have any useful results (else you would have said so long ago), but can you give us what you've gotten so far, Evil? (And this removes any doubt Thor is mafia. SK-Voyear, theoretically possible, but doesn't seem that likely.)

Additionally. I believe we have three lynches left. Conveniently, that's three players left unclear: fatlikepig, redFF, and Empking. Pretty much a guaranteed win, is it not?

[mastin2]

Oh, right. He was off mainly because of the thought of him being a tracker.

Dang. (Why is it that EVERY time I create a gamebreaking strategy, there's a flaw contained within? >_<)

Hold on. Lemme think about it for a sec.

[mastin2]

Know hopw some people do drunk posting:

Well, I;m tired, overworked, and very heavuly distracted, which means I might as well be. LP

I figure this is the oerfect time to do a readthrough of the game, since it;ll certainly be more interesting than when I'm fully awake.


And by readthrough, I mean looking at the Isos of certain people.

For startsr, I want to confimr that Oversoul and RedFF ar both town like I suspect they are. (Thor;s already a given; I need not doubt he is town. As is Eivl.) mEaning I also need to look at fat, NS, and Empking. Roughly ordered most to least for me right now suspect-wise.

Wish me luck!

[mastin2]

Stopped at redFF's ISO 87. Got too tired to continue. Deosn't matter, since I've concluded there's a 90% chance that he';s town.

I've gone throughj Oversoul as well, and trust him too. That, plus Thor and Evil being town, limits it dowmn to Fat, NS, and Empking. Let's see what my tired midn comes up with., ;_

[mastin2]

Not even five posts into fat's iso and it already makes me want to keep my vote on him. IO'll read the entire thing, bu t still...

Getting to 56 or so, I can't keep on going. Either I really an comfirmation biasing badly and acn onlky see "Serial Killer', or jhe really is that bad. Maybe have to biuld a cause against him when more coherent.

Bujt for the sake of competion, I still need to do Vifam/NS plus Empking as well. Maybe draw into meta as well; surely, there are similar games for NS?Emping? 'COurse, that's a little extra work, but a;ll in the name of lynching the SK... ;(

[mastin2]

Oh, small warning,m I'm feeling a little lag over hgere right now; connection's that slow, for some reason. Also, if my ramblings are TOO inchoerent, just has me for a translatoin after I get a klt of sleep.

(That is, assuming *U*( can translate what I'm saying right now... )

[mastin2]

By ISO 10, Empking l;ooks preetty cown. Actually, quite before that; all his early posts look good. I'll have to keep going for as longas I can, since I distinctly remember it not being as good later on. We'll see.

I'd say by 100, there's probably a good 75%ncuance he';s town.

meH, 135 IS CLOSE enough. He;s i85%, just like I said.

Also, not as positive, but I'd say that NS is probably 75-80% town, right behind Emoking. This is wsihtout NS?VIfam reseach, but I'm pretty cnfidnet ab out it right now.

Yay, for process of elimination!

[mastin2]

I'm not bad, you're just drunk.

I am NOT drunk. Even though I may appear that way. I don't drikn. I just get really tired, which I suppose in a way is a type of intoxication on itself, but it's not technically drinking even if the end results are just as bad as if I was. Normally, I don't work tfo too mogn in this state, because it gets worse the longer I am at it, but I have noticed that my reads while in this stird set of mind are actually sujrpsingly good if you give them the channce.

Hence, whyn I am trusting myself in my fat vote.

[mastin2]

Huh. Coulda sworn I was the last post on the page. Wasn;'t I a 49?

I coulda sworn i saw a 49 in there. :/

Giess not.

[quote="Evil"]Anyway. What's the case on NS? Besides lolurking.
[/wiute] Pretty much nothing, as far as I can tell. Hence, one of the manyh reasons he is town on my list. And whyu I will not be lynhcing him.

[quiote="THor"]I refuse to read any of Mastin's fake bad write cause lol-tired posts. I've been legitimately crazy tired - I can still type with a minimum of errors. He's playing it up for...reasons. I hate it, he is still in lynch list for that alone.[/wuote] You think I'm faking beung tired? No. My eyes are barelky awake. You think I am p;urposefully sabotaing the way I SEPAK for the sake of a troll? SUre, grammatical errors I can see you think I cwan kake. But my thought process being different is the entire oiunt of me posting tired. I don't think this way same. Restructuring the typos so that they're,..not typos, you still will find that my speech apterns aren;t normal. THAT:S NOT SOMETHING I EVEN *CAN* FAKE IF I WANTED TO! If I could, then I'd be a good player. But nope, I use Mastin logic normally, and when I'm tired, I use tired-Mastin logic neither of which is even reomtely similar to the other and neither of which is even close to what yiu define as being normal logic.

And I fully assure you, the typing's not my fault either. Sure, your'e correct, if it were just tiredness alone, I probably wouidlnt' make all of these typos. But you have to factor in the distractions as well, which interfer with my cooridination (more so than normal() while also distracting my mind from the screen so I don't even notice when I'm making a typo.

It;s a very iunteresting state of mind. DOn't you remember it in Mirror Mafia? (Or was that my Calcifer game before Mirror Mafia? Well, either way, Evil's seen it, as he was in the Calcifer game before that as well. There will be bloodshed, it was. I know I had this problem ionce or twoice around that time as well. Nacho presumably would not have had that problem at any time. )

[quiote="Oversoul"]Ya, I usually doubt people who try to muck it up like that...[/quote[ There is no try. Only do or do not. Trust me, I know what I'm doing with this. It;s a wonderful insight into mh mind at it's absolutely mist mabis way. SHows you have I think without actuall thinking. And the reads it creates are something I think will be awesome.


Now, back to work.

[mastin2]

Reading VIfam's ISO, he starts out null--no t scummy, but not town, either. But the further I go into it, the more it begins to look like he's town. "Cpurse, I'm still reading as I'm going along, but I don't think that this will be changing that much.

I must admit, sometimes, I am a little more lucid, but it's only for brief moments. Seems ostly to be tied to laughter. THe more I smile, the more I can focus. Unfortunately, the more I think when in that state, the less I can remember when I'm in the normal tired state. And it is the normal; I can assure you that there's no faking involved at all.

Snyway, I should get back to Nobodyu Special. Vifam's given me enough from my quick clance at him. (And it's all day one, after all.)

[mastin2]

I idd a look through the first half of NS's ISO, and it was pretty much oure town. Covers all of my bases, I'd say.

[mastin2]

Anyuway, probably going to go to bed, now. I';m rather tired, and I got what I needed. Too tired ot do any other work, after all, and got nothing but tiem tomorroew to work.

[mastin2]

Great, Empking. Now that you know it's down to three, you know you have a guaranteed win, right?

Well, then, vote for fat. Vifam was town, and NS is town; their ISOs proved it to me last night. Not only do they not act as scum would, not only do they act as a pro-town player (exactly as should be expected), but they also don't act like a Serial Killer. (Don't make me meta NS to prove it's his town play.)

redFF is the same, only more so. His attitude for the entire game doesn't match with that of scum, nor does it match for that of a Serial Killer. It fits perfectly for someone who is town, though.

Fatlikepig, on the other hand...

[mastin2]

Indeed it is.

And I do believe that's game. Fat's the one who makes the most sense.

[mastin2]

An excellent game, indeed. I'm sorry I wasn't around as much as I could have been -- I really should've known better than to try replacing in so late into such a huge game. I'm terrible at catching up in a hurry. (I really only replaced in because I felt sorry for the game -- it seemed to have died so many times. But I

really did

have the best of intentions in re: keeping up.)

If it isn't Fat this makes me feel very townie about NS.

Indeed. This is not something you fake.

NS is town, end of discussion. He's just as town as Thor and Evil, as far as I'm concerned.

[mastin2]

*shakes fist at Mastin*

I'll flip town, by the way. Good luck.

Actually, I don't think you will. You wouldn't be shaking your fist at me.

You would've been scumhunting if you were.

You're wishing us good luck, though.


What am I saying?


Well, I think fat might actually be mafia, who just lost for his entire team by getting lynched all of a sudden.

If so, I'm totally nominating him for Best Performance In A Losing Cause. His Otolia and Ironhead interactions would be just brilliant if he were scum.

[mastin2]

Actually, that makes a lot of sense. His reaction seems a lot like "Yes. I'm scum. BUT NOT THE SCUM YOU WERE LOOKING FOR! D:"

(I'd know that feeling all too well... )

It'd explain his commuter claim, which could potentially get the SK off of him.
It actually makes a lot of sense, now that I think about it.

Fat, if you really don't want the SK to win, you can help us by giving your team's info on night actions.

[mastin2]

Don't worry 'bout it. He's got a neighborhood to post the results in. Scum can't NK both of 'em in the same night.

[mastin2]

Anyway, short of fatlikepig playing safe (that is, assume you weren't hammered even if you're 99% sure you were. I do it all the time ), apparently, the game isn't over.

Meaning we will be going into night.

It's pretty sad that I can predict exactly what will happen tonight. I know exactly who's going to bite the bullet. And I have a fairly good idea of the lynch tomorrow. Which I only give a 60% chance of being on scum. And if it's not, then I know the NK for the night after. And exactly who will be alive in 4P mylo. And how we'd no-lynch. And who would be the NK THEN, and exactly who would live to 3P lylo. (I'll type it out in my QT to prove I'm not BS'ing this. )

[mastin2]

Hey, Thor.
Oversoul.

How much do you trust me?

I have to leave for a couple hours, but I need an answer to this question before the day ends. It's quite important.

[mastin2]

Why, what's your magical obvious certainty today?

The thing is.

I'm pretty sure I know who the serial killer is.

Yet...how can I express my feelings on it? It's...complicated. redFF is a wild-card. He's causing me to doubt the SK-read I have. So, uh. Put bluntly. I kinda want to lynch him, even though I'm not sure he's scum. Because if he flips town, all my doubt would be removed.

And if we lynch redFF and I'm right that he's town...well, you'll bite the bullet. And I want to know: do you trust me to win a lylo? 'Cause that's what tomorrow will be. Okay, no, so it'll actually be 4P mylo, but we'd no-lynch then, and *spoilers* would die, leaving us in 3P lylo. With me, *spoilers*, and *spoilers*. And this is my only chance to ask you, if you think I can do it. And also, that you don't think it is me. I need to know that you trust me enough to win.

As for

I still value you as a very town player, but there is just something in the back of my mind, like a constant, dull tapping noise.

That's as much as I need to hear from you. Thanks.


Now as NS unvoted, I don't think there's any harm in this.

Vote: redFF

. Sorry, man.

[mastin2]

Like I said. It's...
I have...no words to describe it.
It's like I know who the serial killer is...and have that image in my mind, but...
...That I can't accept it.

As if it's something which logically makes sense, but which I can't wrap my head around. Like something which I should be following, but...don't want to. That I know who it is, yet...have a doubt about it.

I wish I could describe it. But I...really can't. It's like I said. If redFF is lynched and flips town, I'm quite sure my doubt will be removed. It's just that...well...I can't really voice it.

Call it logic versus gut if you must. Logically, I have a clear picture, and have predicted exactly how things will play out. But...this...
...whatever it is...
...Makes me not want to follow it.

I know it doesn't make sense. But...it's the way things are. Sorry that I can't explain it better. It's...a concept I'm not sure how to communicate.

[mastin2]

I just have to say, I've never seen mastin at a loss for words.

Well, as you can clearly tell, words still come to me. It's just that they're not the ones I NEED.

@Mastin - no, I don't trust you.

Don't trust that I can win in lylo, or don't trust that I'm town? (I'm assuming the two are mutually exclusive. )

I need to know.

what in the actual fuck

Might as well ask it towards you as well, red.
Do you trust me?

In the same way I need to know from Thor,
Do you trust me to win in lylo?
Do you trust that I'm town?

[mastin2]

Are you saying that logically redFF is the SK? Or that someone else is the SK?

Logically, redFF does not fit as well. The problem is...I keep on looking at him. And seeing how it looks like...well, that he COULD be the SK. How I could be wrong. How I want to be wrong and how it's him. It's exactly as I said. How logically, it seems like it's not him. But how...I can't accept who it'd be if it isn't him.

Arg. This makes less and less sense the more I try to explain it.

Mastin, at this point, any information is vital as the SK is just going to kill people with more and more information in order to hinder us.

Way I see it? We lynch redFF; he's town. The SK kills me out of fear that I might actually know who he is. (Adding yet another game to the list of me-NK'd pile. ) Leaving confirmed town Thor alive in 4P mylo, so no need to no-lynch. And Thor--being the smart guy he is--can try to deduce logically who the serial killer is. Both from my posts, and from looking at certain things. And from those things, he'll probably reach the same conclusion I did, only without the doubt that I'm feeling.

We lynch redFF; he's town. The SK kills Thor, leaving me alive in 4P mylo. It's theoretically possible that in doing a no-lynch, I would be NK'd, but not only do I find that doubtful (especially given the amount of suspicion I am under--just like Sexy Sedilla), I could theoretically place 'crumbs in a worst-case scenario which'd allow the two town players to know who I thought the SK is.

We lynch redFF; he's NOT town. Then either the game's over, or my whole basis for my SK theory is shot out of the water and I was completely wrong about everything.


It's the last one which is giving me so much trouble. I can't shake it. The "what if I'm wrong?" feeling. What if I made a mistake in my calculation? What if my entire theory is based off of a lie? It's that what if that is giving me so much trouble. What if redFF is the SK? What if redFF isn't the SK, but isn't town, either? (Hidden mafia.) What if...
...And so on. I'm sorry; I really wish I could explain it better. It's like I said before. redFF's a wild-card. If he's town like I think, then all my doubt is removed. I know that nothing other than my theory could be correct. I know for a fact that I'm on to something. I know for a fact what I need to do.

If he's not...then everything I thought I knew was wrong. Everything I thought I needed to do turns out to be exactly what the scum want me to do.


Does that explain it better? The concept I'm trying to convey?


Arg. It shouldn't be this hard for me to explain. :/

[mastin2]

mastin, from what I know about you, you don't have this much trouble pointing fingers.

I know.

But I've explained it as best as I can.

I can't say it.
Normally, I'd have confidence. And logically, I should be following what I know the evidence is telling me. No hesitation.

...But for

this

?
...I can't do that. It's like I said. It's sort-of Sexy Sedilla, only...inverted. Instead of being mortified at being wrong about a scumread (Ludi), I'm horrified at the possibility of being right about this SK-read.

I can't say it any better than that. I really can't; this is a new feeling for me. I've never had it before, and quite frankly, I never want to have it again.

It's almost like you're trying to draw out the SK and make them slip (which, while a valid exercise, just isn't your style).

Close but not quite. Nothing the SK could say would make them any more or less suspect in my mind. It's more like what the SK will DO.

It's...frustrating. To no end. Not being able to express it. To have something which is...not something I am familiar with, not something I am comfortable with, but which I have nonetheless. I've never been here before. And...well, it sucks.

[mastin2]

Okay, was thinking about this overnight, and it just doesn't make ANY SENSE.

I know, right?

mastin, if you're SO SURE you know who the SK is, even if you can't articulate why you know, why are you letting us mislynch redFF?

Because my SK read relies on a particular fact. It relies on redFF being town. If redFF flips town, then my read is confirmed. If redFF doesn't flip town, then everything I know was wrong and I have no clue where to go next.

If I lynched my SK-read first and I'm right, sure, it's game over. If I lynch my SK-read first and I'm wrong, well...I've got nothing. It creates the same scenario either way; if I'm wrong, then I'm lost. (Which when you think about it, would create a TRUE Sexy Sedilla situation. )

[mastin2]

Um. Apparently I made a typo. Oops.


I'm going to kill myself for posting it now, but it's such a lovely case. I can't resist the urge to post it now rather than later. :/





And. here. we...go.

I'm typing this on 11/10/11. I planned on posting it in lylo, and with luck, that's when you'll be seeing it. Otherwise, it means things went bad quickly and I felt like if I didn't post things now the knowledge would die with me.

(And if it's the latter scenario, let's just say...THOR ARE YOU FREAKIN' DENSE?!? >_<)


Anyway. Let's cut to the chase and be as blunt as possible:

It's Oversoul.

Now

do you understand?

...You don't? *sigh*

Well, this'll take explaining.

But...well...it should've been obvious to you all.


I suppose the best place to start is the beginning--where my suspicion formed. I'm unsure

exactly

where the suspicion started, But I have a general idea--I think it was around post 1933, iso 127. I certainly HAD it around then, at the very least. (Going through my QT notes, the first where I show Oversoul suspicion is on 11/4/2011. Not sure when that was in-thread, though.)

Note how I said I wanted to confirm both Oversoul and redFF are town.
Oversoul.
And redFF.
Tied together in that manner.

And in my next post, I said that I had gone through redFF's ISO to a specific point--yet gave none for Oversoul. (I gave specific points for every single player I ISO'd.) Why? Because I didn't. Because I was beginning to have the horrific thought that he was the SK.

(My notes also point out a lack of percentage on him--did I give those for everyone? I dunno; the note I'm pulling up was the

drunk

tired posting night so I might've meant something else when I said percentage.)

Another huge hint was in 1957 (iso 139). Note.
I list NS as being just as town as Evil and Thor.
Not just as town as Oversoul. His absence was quite intentional.


The first post I have in my quicktopic basically outlined how Oversoul *could* be scum, and laid the first draft (so to speak) of my plan to help prove or disprove it. Yes, I cracked up a whole plan, an entire gambit, off of an initial suspicion, even though the suspicion wasn't strong at the time.

The plan? Suck up to Oversoul and see if I made it to lylo. If I did, he was the SK for having spared me and hoping to manipulate me. Of course, things never go quite according to plan; my tactic had to morph a little bit in order to survive.

For starters, when I made the plan, I wasn't thinking it was him; it was made during the closing days of Day 7, after all. Later-on, I became more sure it was him. (But we'll cover that later.) The problem came with my day play:

The more and more into day eight I went, the more I revealed of my mindset--dangerous, as every word I said was a potential clue for the SK to use. Every sentence of clarification was one more sentence giving the SK a greater chance of realizing the truth. Which if I am right, would mean Oversoul figuring out I knew it was him.

So, It became less and less "buddy to Oversoul and see if I survive" and more and more "try to leave enough hints that the town can get it if Oversoul kills me, while simultaneously leaving myself suspicious enough to make sure he doesn't".


And that's how it got started and evolved. After fat revealed he was town and we had mislynched, you will recall I made a post which contained predictions.

You know, at the end of day seven?

It's pretty sad that I can predict exactly what will happen tonight. I know exactly who's going to bite the bullet. And I have a fairly good idea of the lynch tomorrow. Which I only give a 60% chance of being on scum. And if it's not, then I know the NK for the night after. And exactly who will be alive in 4P mylo. And how we'd no-lynch. And who would be the NK THEN, and exactly who would live to 3P lylo. (I'll type it out in my QT to prove I'm not BS'ing this. )

Yeah, this. I actually saved it as a draft, since I was on my desktop rather than my laptop (where my QT was) and didn't copy it until after I had already done most of my calculations and research. (More on that in a moment.) So I'm not going to lie to you:

Originally, it wasn't accurate. I predicted a Thor-NK, because a Ninja-SK can be seen by a Voyeur but not by a Tracker, making Thor more of a risk than Evil. redFF was the lynch, at 60% likelihood of being the SK. Then came the Evil NK, and an obvious No-Lynch. My prediction for the NK was Nobody Special, due to his townslip that day effectively clearing him.

Leaving Empking and myself in lylo against Oversoul.

Of course. Then I realized after doing my work that if Oversoul was the Serial Killer, Thor would NOT be the NK. Evil was beginning to suspect Oversoul, and with Evil dead, Oversoul would have full uncounterclaimed control of claiming what has transpired in the neighborhood QT.

Or put bluntly: my original prediction would be accurate for everyone except for Oversoul, so if Evil died, it would be further evidence against Oversoul.

But otherwise, it remained the same. I did toy with the idea of an Empking-NK instead of an NS-NK, but I decided that Oversoul would believe he'd have a better chance with Empking and myself than NS and myself. This changed day eight, of course, once Oversoul had me and NS as "almost interchangeable". Essentially a DEAD giveaway for his intentions in lylo, "going to kill Empking". So suddenly, the idea I had dismissed became my main theory.

But let's go back to the night of Night Seven. Night Seven is where the bulk of my Oversoul case was formed. And I tell you, it's quite extensive.

The background info is of course that I went into night effectively clueless, other than my pet-Oversoul-SK theory. Fat was my main suspect, Oversoul was my secondary suspect which I had only essentially gut on at the time. So I decided to do a little work. Compile a little from here and there, see what I came up with.

...I didn't like the result.

Step one: tallying all the night actions.

Night 1 - watched DX - he was jailkept
Night 2 - watched Oversoul - he was protected and roleblocked
Night 3 - watched redFF - he was tracked
Night 4 - watched Foolish Fool - he was nightkilled
Night 5 - watched Oversoul - no actions targeted him.

The most important thing to note here is night two. Not the protect, but the roleblock.

Nobody visited Xeras D1.
Nobody visited Hoppster D2.

This created a potential reasoning for Xeras to have been nightkilled, via the SK scum-hunting and thinking Otolia watched his buddy.
I have a different theory, mind you, one which I'll bring up later.

Otherwise, not important.

Night 1: Jailed DavidX

Night 2: Jailed Empking

Night 3: We had problems with activity in the neighborhood. He said he would jail Xeras but I don't know if he was actually there to send in the action.

We know the David JK is a fact, and we know the N3 JK was actually Oversoul. There's nothing suggesting the N2 Empking jail is false, so I've been assuming it's true.

Watched Oversoul last night,

Hopster and FoolishFool visited him.

Note once more that Oversoul is (double) roleblocked.


I unfortunately wasn't initially able to deduce much from these actions. As mentioned, we know David was jailed, and Empking was probably jailed. That's about it, except for one very vital fact:

Oversoul was roleblocked on both N2 and N3.

The only thing missing to paint an OverSK picture is "what would interfere with Night One?"

So, unable to make anything clearer, I made this:

-Evil tracked ?, ?, redFF (?), ?, ?, Oversoul. And if Oversoul is to believed, it's ?, Xeras, redFF, Mastin, Empking, Oversoul, all going nowhere.
-Thor watched David (JK'd), Oversoul (protect+block), redFF (tracked), Foolish (NK'd), Oversoul, and ?.
-Otolia watched Xeras, and Hoppster.
-Hoppster jailed David N1, Empking (?) N2, and Oversoul N3.
-BV protected ? N1, and Oversoul N2.
-TOGTFO investigated BV N1/2 (one of them; not sure which), Watched Oversoul N3, and protected ? (Oversoul?) N4.
-Scum roleblocked ? N1, Oversoul N2, Oversoul N3, and ? N4.
-Scum killed Estyn N1, BV N2, Hoppster N3, and ? N4.
-SK killed ? (David?) N1, ? (Empking?) N2, ? (Oversoul?) N3, Pine N4, TOGTFO N5, and Xeras N6.

Working from this, I made a few conclusions.

We know the scum blocked Oversoul two nights where there are failed kills. We've been told that Empking was blocked N2 as well, and that's the only night he could have been blocked. (Other than N4.)

-For Empking to be the SK, he'd need to have targeted David or nobody N1. He'd need to have targeted Oversoul N3 and been a ninja.

-For Oversoul to be the SK, he'd need to have either been roleblocked N1 (this roleblock is unaccounted for), killed David, or chosen nobody. Additionally, he needs to have not been blocked N4. (This is the other roleblock unaccounted for.)

-For NS/redFF to be the SK, they'd need to have targeted David or nobody N1, Empking or nobody N2, killed nobody or Oversoul N3 and rely on being a ninja, and kill Pine N4, without being roleblocked.

And my finishing thought?

"Why is there a VT-claim in an otherwise-PR neighborhood?" This was an older thought of mine, but it was rekindled by looking at the night actions. And from this, I did further investigation.


I fell to role-balance.

My first attempt made some miscalculation along the line. I'm not sure where it was, but it said, more or less:

Out of twenty players, we have seven PRs.
-Two even-night roles. (Vig/Commuter.)
-Two protection roles. (Bodyguard/Jailkeeper.)
-Two visiting/weak investigation roles. (Voyeur/Tracker.)
-One oddball, the JOAT. Said joat had an extra protect, visit, and investigation.

We also know the scum have two PRs.
-A watcher.
-A roleblocker.

Making 9/20 PRs, plus an apparently uber-SK. Half the game as power roles?!?
...Apparently.

Of twenty players including scum roles,

-Two even-night roles. (Vig/Commuter.)
-Two protection roles. (Bodyguard/Jailkeeper.)
-Two roleblocking roles. (M. Roleblocker/Jailkeeper.)
-Three visiting/weak investigation roles. (M. Watcher/Voyeur/Tracker.)
-One oddball, the JOAT. Said joat had an extra protect, visit, and investigation.

The SK is not immune to the Voyeur, their kills still apparently visible. But the SK is still up against three night actions which can catch them: Watcher, Tracker, and extra-Watcher.

(*BREAK*)

-For a fact, we know that there are seven town PRs.
*Oversoul acts as a weak eighth, via neighborhood.
-There's also two scum PRs, bringing the total up to ten.
*Lew/Hip acted as a weak third, via neighborhood.
-This brings the total up to eleven, plus the SK.
*Assuming the SK is not among the eleven others, that'd leave eight VTs.

...So......

-VT x 8.5
-Neighbor
-Tracker-Neighbor
-Jailkeeper-Neighbor
-EvenNight Vig
-EvenNight Commuter
-Bodyguard
-Voyeur
-JOAT

VS
-M. Neighbor
-M. Roleblocker
-M. Watcher
-M. Goon

VS
-Ninja SK.

I knew something wasn't adding up. I had made a false conclusion somewhere between the first half and the second. There was a miscalculation, which needed to be fixed. I needed to check my math.

A quick mental check left 7.5 VTs if Oversoul were to be town, so I tried to count manually in order to confirm.

Johhog, PR. One.
Hiplop, scum. (Two.)
BV, PR. Three.
Otolia, M PR. (Four.)
Hoppster, D PR. Five.
Ironhead, scum. (Six.)
Pine, M PR. (Seven.)
TOGTFO, PR. Eight.
Fat, PR. Nine.

Evil, D PR. Ten.
Thor, PR. Eleven.

SK, PR. Twelve.
Oversoul, Neighbor. Half-PR.
Twelve and a half.

Leaving not 8.5 VTs, but 7.5. That didn't make much sense.
Unless Oversoul were to be the Serial Killer. Suddenly, Oversoul's the SK and the neighbor, taking the twelfth slot without needing a thirteenth, and leaving us with a nice even eight VTs.

To top it all off, I thought about the neighborhood. Look at it for a moment:
Everyone else is effectively a double-PR. Neighbor-JK. Neighbor-Tracker. Neighbor-Scum. Neighbor...VT?

It didn't fit in. Oversoul was the odd-man out of the neighborhood. And with the math falling into place, suddenly things were beginning to make sense, even if I didn't want them to.


Xeras--suspecting the neighbors--was NK'd.
Evil--no longer confident in Oversoul--was NK'd.

I am alive, despite being such a competent scumhunter, meaning I was wrong before on my suspects. Which were...everyone EXCEPT for Oversoul, essentially.

The Scum-SK-PR-PR neighborhood lingering in my mind.

And then, process of elimination.
Thor was confirmed town and destined to bite the bullet.
NS had townslipped.
That left Oversoul, redFF, and Empking.

I was 85% sure it was Oversoul. With redFF lynched and Thor NK'd and me living to lylo, it'd move up to 95%. And I wanted that extra 10%. I wanted to remove the doubt in my mind about redFF and by proxy, Empking. Because...

The math says it's Oversoul.
Game balance says it's Oversoul.
General mechanics say it's Oversoul.
Night actions say it's Oversoul.
My original notes said it was Oversoul.

The case was formed, and I knew it was solid.


...But...it had a hole in it. That hole essentially boiling down to a tl;dr of "...what if I'm wrong?!?"

If redFF and one of Empking/NS were scum+SK, then it'd bring the total number of VTs down dangerously low, to 6 without Oversoul acting as another, plus with a fifth scum in this scenario, the numbers changed. It didn't make nearly as much sense to have Oversoul scum if one of redFF/Empking/NS were a different-scum. So I needed to make sure it wasn't redFF, I pretty much knew it wasn't NS, and with only Empking left, he'd be pretty much clear.

...If that makes sense.

So, I needed to remove that doubt. The only way I could do that was by lynching redFF.


Yes, bad as it may sound, that's what became my plan. Remove all the variables I possibly could. Do you understand now why redFF was a wild-card? Because my math wasn't perfect, I needed to know it was correct despite being imperfect. redFF was the only lynch I could conceive of which would remove that doubt.

If he flipped town, I would know Oversoul was the Serial Killer by my calculations. If he didn't flip town, either the game would be over or I'd know my calculations were off, and that Oversoul was indeed town as I wanted him to be. (More than that, confirmed-town, making him a risk for the remaining scum!)

Hence, not wanting to lynch Oversoul first. He's been my strongest town-read since Day Two, after all. I couldn't lynch him. Not when he could potentially hurt the scum, and not when he was a strong townread of mine.

And that's why I couldn't lynch my SK-suspect. Do you understand now why I couldn't accept who the Serial Killer was? Why I wanted to ignore the logic? Why in the battle of not-so-ultimate-logic versus ultimate gut, how I didn't want my gut to be wrong? Do you understand now why I wanted redFF to be scum of some kind even though I "knew" he was town?

Well, even if you don't understand, at least you know. Now you know

why

I had the "What if I'm wrong?" reaction to my SK-read. And just how that meant I could no longer have my normal Mastin-level confidence.

Reverse. Confirmation. Bias. At its absolute worst. The inverse to my Confirmation Bias towards Magister Ludi in Sexy Sedilla. I was 95% sure he was scum. I couldn't see him flipping town, I couldn't fathom a scenario where he wasn't scum, to the point where I gambited and told the town to auto-lynch me if he was town.

...Yet he

was

town. And I was devastated. I thought I had cost the town the game. I thought that I was going to be lynched, and that it was my fault for having gotten such a strong read which was so wrong.

The same only in reverse happened here. Facing instead of a scumread proven wrong, a townread which should be wrong. I didn't want him to be scum. I didn't want to get rid of my reverse-confirmation-bias. The person I think is the SK is the one person I shouldn't think is the SK, the one person who if I'm wrong about being the SK would completely and totally screw the town over.

More than that, if I were wrong, I'd have lynched the guy who was most-town of us all. And caused--be it SK or hidden-fifth-scum--a scum victory out of what should've been a town-win.

And if I let them KNOW this, then any hope I have of removing the doubt is obliterated. If I were wrong, then they could intentionally keep Oversoul alive for a mislynch instead of nightkilling him.

And there was the risk that by revealing this case on Day Eight, Oversoul would be lynched THEN, because I made a dang-good case against him in the QT. And me being wrong would be entirely on me.

That is why it was so hard to speak on the subject. I wouldn't have kept it a secret unless it was just that vital to me. I'm not even sure Oversoul didn't figure it out, but obviously, if you see this, then it doesn't matter if he did or not.


Yes. The gambit is in the open, now. I was pleased Oversoul suspected me (that was the entire purpose of asking if he trusted me--I needed to gauge roughly how likely it was that I'd bite the bullet), because that'd mean I wouldn't get NK'd by him. I was letting myself (somewhat-intentionally) garner up some suspicion, specifically so that I would live 'til lylo. But simultaneously, I was trying to avoid tipping Oversoul off. And at the same time, leaving enough hints to be useful. While also making sure I wasn't being manipulated into thinking Oversoul was scum if he wasn't.

I wanted Thor's trust for the gambit, since he not only was going to be the NK, but generally also does not approve of Mastin-gambits. I wanted his seal of approval, his confidence that I could pull this one off.

I wanted redFF's trust since not only was he going to be lynched because of the gambit (with me wanting him to have confidence in his primary lyncher being able to pull through with a town win), but also because he cast Oversoul suspicion and I wanted his trust that I would follow through.

Honestly, this all should've been incredibly obvious. I started 'crumbing with my constant references to Sexy Sedilla. If that weren't bad enough, I had given perhaps the largest hint of all in the post where I said redFF flipping not-town and my suspect flipping town would have the same outcome. (Me being lost.)

Logically and for most players, this would mean going through and attacking said suspect. Think about it--why would I hesitate to attack Empking? Who I had cast minor suspicion towards? How about NS? Who was also on my suspect list?

No, the person I wouldn't go after was Oversoul, and only him. Meaning the only person who I wouldn't attack would be him. It was a dead giveaway.


Now you know why I responded the way I did to Oversoul's inquiry about the SK in 2010 (iso 148). Now you know why I didn't really fear the SK-NK. Now you know why I was capable of placing 'crumbs.

Now you know why nothing the SK could say would influence me, but what the SK would DO would. Now you know exactly why I was having trouble communicating this concept without revealing my read.


Now you understand why I did what I did.

And now it's all in the open. Let's finish this.

I. Will. Not. Cause. Two. Serial Killer. Wins. In. A. Row!

Unvote, VOTE: Oversoul.

[mastin2]

Yeah, you don't get to call me dense

Apologies. I wrote that under the assumption there were only two ways I was going to post my case.
1: If we were in lylo.
2: If I were run-up to L-1. In which case, you would almost certainly be a member of the wagon, given your comments in the last few days.


I didn't think I was ever going to post it before then.

[mastin2]

Also,

Mod: two things:

-I will be V/LA from tomorrow 'til Monday, most likely. Dental work tomorrow means I might not be able to play 'til I recover.
-Could you delete the top post? It's an exact duplicate of the one below it, but with a coding error. It unnecessarily doubles the length of the page, making my case look a lot longer than it is.

[mastin2]

How long have you been thinking about this? I need actual game days or real life days in order to fully consider your accusation.

Since near the end of Day Seven. Around the tired-posting; I give you the timeframe. Which is...oh, roughly one week ago real-life time.

you derps have run me up to L-1 and I don't want a quick hammer before I can respond in full to Mastin.

Who's your third voter? L-1 is three votes, not two.

The neighborhood was decided randomly.

I have a very hard time believing that the strongest two Power Roles in the game were randomly assigned to the neighborhood, along with one scum randomly popping in. It requires a severe stretch of my suspencion of disbelief, so to speak. Why not two VTs? Why not a weaker PR, like Thor or BV? Tracker is the strongest investigation role we have. Jailkeeper is the strongest protection role we have and could potentially have been a super-strong investigation role as well.

Like I said. It just doesn't make sense for that to be random. It looks deliberate, orchestrated and manufactured.

You still haven't explained how when I would fall victim to a blocked kill on Night 1 other than Mafia RB which is something we can't rely on.

I can say the same for pretty much every single player, on different days. For Empking, he'd have to target David N1 or nobody, plus the N3 (see next sentence). For NS/redFF, same thing, but they'd ALSO have to have targeted Empking/nobody N2, AND targeted you/nobody N3 while relying on being a ninja to not show up.

For you? You have a single unexplained night. Everyone else has at least two. You were roleblocked at least two nights. Empking was only roleblocked once. redFF/NS haven't been.
Sure, there are two scum RBs which are unaccounted for. But without knowing who they're on, I can only work from what data I DO have. And the data I DO have says that you are the most likely.

Like I said. I didn't want it to be true, either.

Mastin, you are using complete setup speculation and the like to confirm that I am an SK.

Not entirely!

There's also Night-Kill Analysis!

(Which doesn't really help, but yeah, basically. Multiple pieces of the setup point to it being Oversoul.)

mastin, when I flip town if you do actually get this derp town to follow your speculative case, what will you do then?

Coin toss between redFF and Empking. Probably Empking-lynch, now that I think about it; redFF's attitude doesn't seem to match that of a SK. (Of course, this is assuming that they cross-vote and leave me with the hammer. If they 1V1 me, then the choice becomes obvious. ) But I'd use my full deadline time to make sure. As I said before. I do not want to cause a second serial killer win in a row. I'll review everything. Go over the entire game. Look at their play carefully. Observe the night actions a final time to make sure of it all. Heck, if I have the time, break into meta as well.

Get rid of all my biases and start from scratch, analyzing things as objectively as possible. (But once more, as I said. Empking's probably who I'd end up voting.)


I am sorry, Oversoul, but you're wrong about you being Ludi. You're the anti-Ludi. Every fiber in me wants to believe you're town. Every single bit of me wants me to have been wrong in the case. Every part of me WANTS you to be town.

It's just that...that's not what the evidence says.

[mastin2]

I've...never...
...I've never seen Oversoul act this way before.

It's scary.

But needless to say.

Unvote

.

Empking's vote looks a lot like panic, and...well...
...Oversoul's post just seemed...so...town. It's...hard to describe. But I don't see scum panic. I don't see Oversoul flipping out. I don't see "YOU CAUGHT ME FOR ALL THE WRONG REASONS!" (A very common scum reaction to me suspecting them. ) I see...assertion. Authority. I see steadfast commitment. And...well...I'm not sure what exactly makes it so town. But...I don't see anything scum in it.

It's like...well, a perfect counter-case. Which not only defends against a lot of points, but presents counter-points and goes on the offensive. It's...well...it's...
...Something which doesn't seem like a Serial Killer could even make.

VOTE: Empking.

[mastin2]

I want everyone as of this moment to name their number 1 and number 2 choice.

Subjectively? As in, with me knowing my role PM?
Empking number one, redFF number two. NS number three, you number four, Thor at five and me at the bottom as six.

Objectively? As in, what I think others will see?
Mastin as number one, and Empking as number two. Same order otherwise.

Your countercase is...well...the simplest word I can think of is "so beautiful". It's strong, it's convincing. It felt so right. And it has some pretty dang good evidence in it.

[mastin2]

Mastin: OS' reaction to you was to react as if there was new info he had to consider.

There was.

He was voting redFF.

redFF did something which he needed to consider (voting him), and there was a massive case from me against him.
This changed his reads on both of us, making redFF look more town and me considerably less.


You voiced as far as I can tell absolutely no Oversoul suspicion prior to 2057. By which point, he was launching a counter-wagon on you. You seem to display the very same panic you accuse Oversoul of, in fact.

(Also, random note. Empking's the third person today to have gotten to L-1, after redFF and then Oversoul. Third time's the charm? )

[mastin2]

Thor: There's a reason Empking's been saying, "I don't believe in townslips."

It's because Nobody Special gave one here.

So unless you think that looks faked (It doesn't), NS is town.

[mastin2]

You think I panicced because a single player voted that's absurd.

And yet, that single player has managed to run you up to L-1. This is something you very easily could have foreseen.

Oversoul made a strong case, which largely condemned you. He pushed for a sudden wagon on you, seemingly out of the blue. Suspicion on you where there was little before. Pressure placed onto you, and attention on you, with a very real risk of people listening to the should-be-confirmed-town Oversoul.

As town? Yeah, nothing to fear. As scum? (SK, more specifically.) Now you're gettin' a lil' worried.

And you know you only think it looks like panic because I mentioned "panic" in my post.

Nah. You of all people should know that I look into the tone of people's posts, and can often-times sense people's emotions through it. (Sure, I sometimes misread, but I'm accurate more often than not.) And I saw panic. Which is ironic, considering that's what you accused Oversoul of having.

I could also counter-argue that the reason you mentioned panic in your post is because you were panicked and the word popped into your mind due to that.

also oversoul you can't use the fact that you found scum as reason for you to be town when we're hunting for sks.

So, red.
Why are you casting more doubt on Oversoul, when you're sheeping his read?

[mastin2]

(At Empking)
2056?
No.

Not by itself, anyway.

2054? When combined with 2056?

Oh, heck yes.

It was stunning. It was unexpected. Nobody saw it coming.
Yeah, I can see why it would cause panic.

The funny thing is, you're not even denying it is panic.

[mastin2]

I'm not sheeping his read...
I'm casting doubt because im trying to find the sk..

You're voting his suspect. We both sheeped him.
Nothing wrong with that, if we both are suspicious of Empking.

Yet you're casting doubt on him, while simultaneously supporting him.

See the problem I have with this picture?

[mastin2]

Pretty sure that's game.

Empking's acting like caught-scum.

Paraphrased, it's like he's literally saying, "Dang. I thought I had a chance. So, what was it that gave me away? *after reasons are given* I can't believe I was hammered over such poor reasoning!"

[mastin2]

Alright. I'll humor you and for a moment, assume that you're not the SK.

That we are going into night.

And you-know-who dies tonight.


In 4P mylo, I'd advise against the usual auto-hammer-no-lynch. I'll explain if we get there. (And that's a huge "if".)

[mastin2]

If you were expecting some master plan from me, I'm afraid you were sadly mistaken.
I suppose it's a postin' time.


Right. So at the end of yesterday, I said we shouldn't (immediately) No Lynch. This probably surprised people, especially when they know I have reasons to strongly suggest it's a good idea. (Neruzian.)

"Everyone could die, right?"

Theoretically, yes.

That, itself, is a change from my previous stance that "everyone except for mastin could die, since mastin has a free pass to lylo as our primary suspect."

Then I realized...I really don't. I honestly, truly...could die.

That itself wasn't enough, though.

What tipped me over the edge?

Realizing that it WASN'T anyone who would die. That the SMARTEST Serial Killer kill would actually be me.

"...what."

Yeah, well, think ahead to lylo.

There are three scenarios.
1: The Serial Killer 1V1s me. This is a fight they very well may lose. Sure, it's possible to enter this scenario and win (after all, before my current meta of getting NK'd every single game, I had the opposite type of meta ), but it's a huge risk.
2: The VT votes me, SK hammers. This situation would be ideal, but also incredibly unlikely. No player here would be that trigger-happy to attack me.

Or

3: Either the SK crossvotes with the VT, or nobody votes 'til a couple days before deadline. Either way, it's a Sexy Sedilla Situation.

Nothing wrong with that for a SK, right? I mean, I had to use every single last minute of my time in Sexy Sedilla before casting the hammer vote. No problem, right?

Wrong. 'Cause guess what: I eventually

won

Sexy Sedilla, even if it took me forever. Any SK familiar with that situation would realize that bringing me to lylo when I'm willing to pull multiple all-nighters to find the scum is quite frankly foolish. That's not all.


Because there's another reason beyond being nearly impossible to lynch which makes me a very bad choice for lylo: the exact same thing which is the main reason people think I'm the SK--forethought. I have the ability to see into the future and predict things.

...Including, say, who the SK would be if *player1* died. And how that is different from who the SK would be if *player2* died. Because I'm capable of doing good nightkill analysis, well, it is a slight double-sword, in that it proves that I could be the SK setting up the situations I describe...

...But it ALSO means I'm an incredible THREAT to the Serial Killer, since getting inside of scum's heads is something of a specialty of mine. And because I'm good at it, that makes me incredibly dangerous to the SK.

Sure, I *could* be wrong about my NK analysis (I did it on Day Eight), but the Serial Killer is taking a HUGE risk with this. They don't know if I'm right or wrong. (And I quite frankly don't intend to tell them, for obvious reasons.) If I'm right, then I basically have them nailed, and they're screwed.



So, both because I'm incredibly hard to lynch, and incredibly likely to nail the scum, I'm basically the person the SK LEAST wants in Lylo.


Does that mean we'll be lynching today?





Oh, heck no. I fully support a No Lynch.

Just not immediately.

What *I* want, is to *USE* today. Use every single minute of Day Nine to analyze, interrogate, etc. Try to figure out who the SK is today. Get all the work done now, rather than later or never. And after all of that, then the day can end. (Basically, we don't end the day before we're ready. And if we're not ready before deadline, well, then we'll have used the whole time since at deadline the default is a no-lynch.)


That way, I can die having scumhunted, instead of having died giving the town nothing to work with.


So, uh, yeah. Not some master strategy, a grand master plan to win the game.

Me wanting to die scumhunting.

[mastin2]

Now with that in mind, I created questions for you to answer overnight.

OVERSOUL: Right now, who is your top townread?
Top SK-read?

NOBODY SPECIAL: How much time have you put into this game?
How much of it have you read?
You've stated previously that you trust neither Oversoul nor myself. Has that changed?
If so, to what?
If not, then who between us do you think is more likely to be scum?
What's your read on redFF?

REDFF: Are you still suspicious of Oversoul being the SK?
If not, who is your new top suspect?



Yeah, yeah, I know. Not the best questions in the world. Basically, they're filler while I undertake my work.

[mastin2]

Oh, and a small warning.
Bad weather coming to my area--possible power outage in the next couple of days (during which I have no internet) and then there's Thanksgiving after that, so I'm *potentially* V/LA for roughly a week, though I don't think I will be.

to answer your question mastin, im suspicious of everyone and i have no idea who the sk is, hence the reread.

Alright. Let's try some different questions, then.

How did it feel to no longer become undefeated, red?
If we had won Underground and you were still undefeated, do you think you would be playing this game any differently?

What changed your view here that one of {Me, Empking} was scum?
Do you remember your thoughts here?
You mention Oversoul suspicion, and you've shown mastin suspicion.
But no NS suspicion, yet you claim to be suspicious of everyone.

What happened to NS?


(Dang it. I really suck at these.)

[mastin2]

I just realized that I didn't ask any questions for myself.

I'll leave any others you want to you, but I should give you this much:

As of right now, most likely to least likely is roughly Oversoul-redFF-Nobody Special. It's mostly based off of gut. NS has a lot pointing to him being town, from a lot of his overall play, to his townslip, and then to his post above. (Though admittedly, that might just be due to how much he is reminding me of...well, me. ) There *are* a few things *against* him, but they are few and far between, requiring a stretch of logic.

It's pretty similar for redFF, though it's more even. A lot says he could be the SK, but there's at least an equal amount saying he isn't, and my gut wants to say he isn't.

...Which by process of elimination has Oversoul at the top again, much to my horror. My gut? Dead silence from it. It refuses to speak on the matter of Oversoul right now. "I don't want to talk about it." My head's going through a similar pattern. "NO! Not him!"






So, my solution:

I'm going to try and forget everything here. I'll try to review the facts.
Review my info.
Review it all.

Read all 85 pages.

Look for the clues.

See if I can find

anything

, but do it from a clear mind.
Keep track of votes if I can.

Whatever is necessary. But I need to enter it with a clear mind. I can't go in with the above biases, or the above biases are what I will finish with.

Honestly, this is incredibly hard. Oversoul's more or less right about how things have played out: all the extremely pro-town players are dead. All the extremely anti-town players were lynched. Now, we're left with four people, who all have things pointing to them being town, who in any other circumstance would probably be taken for granted as being town...

...Yet we know for a fact that one ISN'T, and looking at everyone without taking for granted they're town, there's a lot of evidence suggesting they COULD be scum.

The middle of the road, so to speak. Grah.

[mastin2]

I do need to see about history with Oversoul/redFF and you; perhaps they don't know how good you really are (although your performance in this very game should be a freaking clue).

At the start of this game, this was apparently one of redFF's first games with me. I can't seem to recall his presence in any game other than Underground Mafia, where I pretty much nailed all four scum upon replacing in and put into a motion a plan which ended up lynching 3/4 of them, despite being NK'd the moment I replaced in. (Not due to my reads, as awesome as that'd be, but because I was triple-confirmed-town, via gunsmith, masonry, and rolecop.)

Oversoul, I've had more experience with. There was Brightest Day, where I accidentally 'crumbed too hard (I didn't know how obvious it was! >_<) an anti-cult role...when Oversoul was in the cult. Whoops, dead

Night One

The Minute Day Two Dawned. (Immediate dayvig day two.) Posthumously, I named 4 scum in a list of 5. One of them (Cult Leader) was cult, the others were mafia. But while alive, my reads were pretty meh, if I remember correctly. Decent, but not great.

There's RPG mafia, where I got...pretty much nothing before being NK'd. (Sensing a disturbing pattern? )

In the dead QT, I didn't figure it out for the longest time, and when I did it was because of some dead giveaway clues in the dead QT, so nothing gained from the thread helped me. (Though I did point out multiple scumslips from Hindu after I knew it was him.) So, uh, not great there, either.

The only other example coming to mind off the top of my head is Sexy Sedilla, and you presumably have figured out how that went. My reads were Meh almost the entire game, with a few highs and a few lows. The ultimate "low" in that game, however, was my Magister Ludi scumread, to the point where I gambited "Lynch him, and if he flips town, lynch me." He flipped town. I caused the treestump to 'stump as well, removing his vote from the game.

And it was lampshaded how if I were scum, I had just basically played a perfect scum game. But, nope, was terrible town. Who somehow was left with the hammer after Oversoul/MrZephr crossvoted. (Why, I still have no clue. I was the main suspect going into lylo, yet I had the hammer.) Working 'til the day of deadline and pulling an all-nighter, I eventually hammered MrZepher, ending the game with a town win, but it was a very,

very

close call. I think the end percentage was something like 53-47.

So, uh, redFF: seen me be awesome.
Oversoul: seen me be better-than-average, but not what I'd call awesome.

Of course, they're free to correct any holes in the above, since I'm basing this entirely off of memory.

[mastin2]

I'll answer in a minute, Oversoul.

But one question to you. Absolutely vital:

How did you know the neighborhood was randomized?
How was the neighborhood randomized? Do you know? Because "Random town plus a maf" and "completely random" are two entirely different things.

Trust me, I just did nearly half an hour's worth of work, so I need an answer.

[mastin2]

Mastin, where did your analysis of the RVS questions go?

Buried in my QT. It has over a hundred posts in it, more than I've given to any other QT except for multigame hydra QTs. (So, it's the most posts I've ever had in a QT for a single game. ) The first twenty-five or so are where the RQS are. Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about them. They are to play a part in my reviewing. I've got the flip info from almost everyone to help the data, though it's going to take me a long time to compile. And I have a few other things higher on my priority list. But they are there, and they are important still.

Why were Secret and I such obvious scum reads of yours in the beginning of the day and why haven't you fleshed out that idea other than the suspicion you threw on me yesterday despite the situation of this game now?

Neighborhood. When I learned you were a neighborhood, with one scum in it, I instantly clicked to the thought "all others are confirmed town". As anyone else would have. When I learned there was a SK, though, one of my early thoughts was SK-in-neighborhood. I thought you were the gunsmith, so if you recall, I attacked Secret/Evil who I thought was the SK. And when that changed to him being the tracker, and you being the VT, suddenly, your positions were switched in my mind. I don't remember when this was, exactly, nor the details around it, but you should get the idea.

Your first 50 posts of this game could be classified as IIoA. Do you agree with that sentiment?

Yes and no.

Were they all IIoA? No, I did some real scumhunting there, though I'm too lazy to do an ISO right now and point out which were scumhunting and which were IIoA.

Were most of them IIoA?

Heck yes they were. Expecting me to deny it? The simple truth is that's what they were.

I think we are all asking the same question (well maybe except for redFF). Why haven't we died?

The kills for the last two nights have an obvious explanation. Evil/Thor were dead men walking. No SK had a chance if either were brought into lylo, and we all know that.

What's vital is tonight's kill, and the kills BEFORE that.
Why wasn't there an SK kill the first three nights?
Why Pine?
(No question about TOGTFO; that was obvious. But...)
Why XERAS?!?
Why *insert who dies tonight*?

THOSE are the important questions. I can answer the last. I can answer for TOGTFO/Secret/Thor. The others, however, need a little more explaining. I'm going to do another review of what I know of night actions.

[mastin2]

So I'm still on my desktop, meaning no access to my notes, meaning this'll be a little more difficult than normal. But I thought I might as well start with the setup, and the combinations possible. There's pretty much only one variable, here: Oversoul.

If Oversoul is the Serial Killer, the setup looks like this:

Town Even-Night Vigilante
Town Even-Night Commuter
Town Bodyguard
Town JOAT
Town Voyear
Town Jailkeeper-Neighbor
Town Tracker-Neighbor
(7 PRs)
VT x 8

VS

Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon-Neighbor
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Roleblocker

VS

Ninja-Neighbor-SK.

OR

There is a chance of it being

Town Even-Night Vigilante
Town Even-Night Commuter
Town Bodyguard
Town JOAT
Town Voyear
Town Jailkeeper
Town Tracker
VT x 8

with two randomized players chosen. (OR: Two randomized PRs chosen.)

VS

Mafia Goon x 2
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Roleblocker

with one player randomly chosen.

VS

Ninja-Neighbor-SK. (Not random.)


OR



Oversoul was truthful; the neighborhood was entirely random, which creates a setup almost identical to the above, with it actually being:

Town Even-Night Vigilante
Town Even-Night Commuter
Town Bodyguard
Town JOAT
Town Voyear
Town Jailkeeper
Town Tracker
VT x 8

VS

Mafia Goon x 2
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Roleblocker

VS

Ninja-SK.

Four randomly selected players (which just so happened to have a SK and mafia member among them).


So of these.
-Neighborhood Fixed; Oversoul was BS'ing.
-Neighborhood has two random town, one random maf, and the SK; it was semi-random.
-Neighborhood has two random PRs, one random maf, and the SK; it was coordinated randomness (if that makes sense).
-Neighborhood was completely random; Oversoul was not lying.

I doubt the first one. I may be underestimating him, but I doubt Oversoul has the skill to lie *that* convincingly.
-I also somewhat doubt the second one. It seems okay, but it requires incredible amount of chance to land both on PRs.
-The fourth creates an incredible stretch on credibility, so it becomes doubtful itself.
-So if Oversoul is the SK, the Neighborhood was Two Random PRs, SK, and One Random Mafia. (That seems balanced enough.)




Now working from Oversoul-is-town, the setup instead looks like this:

Town Even-Night Vigilante
Town Even-Night Commuter
Town Bodyguard
Town JOAT
Town Voyear
Town Jailkeeper
Town Tracker
VT x 8

VS

Mafia Goon x 2
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Roleblocker

VS

Ninja-SK.

Note the lack of the first scenario, since if Oversoul were town, he would not be lying. But still, just because the neighborhood is random, does not mean it was entirely random.

As I see it:
-Neighborhood had two random PRs, one random VT, and one random mafia.
-Neighborhood had three random town, and one random mafia.
-Neighborhood had completely random selection.

Are the only three possibilities. Honestly, I'm not sure which of these would be the most likely. The fourth is the fairest from a moderator's perspective, but the least likely from a player's. (The neighborhood just so happened to coincidentally end up with two PRs, one VT, and one scum?!? It just doesn't seem likely at all.)

The first seems oddly specific from a moderating point of view, but I can see it happening and it does kinda make sense from a player's perspective. But I'm not sure about it.

The middle seems like a happy medium between the two. It's not very specific as a moderator; you just want one scum in the neighborhood, no more and no less. And it doesn't require as much of a stretch as the third. But it still *is* a stretch, in that it still requires that two of the three town players were coincidentally PRs.

So as I see it, overall:

-If Oversoul were the SK, the Neighborhood was Two Random PRs, SK, and One Random Mafia.
-If Oversoul were town, the Neighborhood was three random town, and one random mafia.



Seems pretty likely.














...This...doesn't seem to match what Oversoul just said, though. :/

[mastin2]

Oversoul: Did the mod say it was completely random?

I understand that you obviously can't get too close to the original wording without getting modkilled,
But the specific wording is VERY important.

I need you to tell me as best as you can his phrasing. It makes a HUGE difference.

[mastin2]

Oh, then?

I had a scumread on you and Evil.
I hadn't read the game.
I didn't know there was a Neighborhood, you were a claimed Gunsmith, or any of that. I was still trying to work on my RQS stuff.
But I hadn't gotten a vote out.

Since it's my personal belief that you should always have your vote out barring lylo scenarios (AKA, things like right now), I needed to vote SOMEONE. (I think I cover that in Mastin's Guide To Playing Well, though I might've touched upon it in Mastin's Guide To Scumhunting.)
But all I had was my outdated suspicions on you and Secret.
My Secret suspicion was stronger, so they/he was my vote.

If that makes sense.

[mastin2]

Oversoul: Did the mod say it was completely random?

I understand that you obviously can't get too close to the original wording without getting modkilled,
But the specific wording is VERY important.

I need you to tell me as best as you can his phrasing. It makes a HUGE difference.

Still need this, Oversoul.

[mastin2]

And for that matter, I'd love to hear the early Neighborhood QT talk, paraphrased. It's not too hard to paraphrase QT talk. Things asked to the mod about the QT, things to other players...

Early-talk. As in, first half of day one or so.

[mastin2]

I'll wait.

Oh, and by the way.

Serial Killer:

If you can choose to no-kill, then, well, quite frankly, if you did, I'd take the draw. And nom you for a well-deserved Best Performance Third Party scummy, since...well...
...Let's face it. Regardless of who the SK is, they've played a solid game.

[mastin2]

Can SK's no kill?

Depends on the mod. Seen it both ways. Originally, no. Nowadays, it's probably closer to 50/50.

[mastin2]

So I switched to my desktop for five minutes to ramble in my QT a little.

Then I came up with an idea, which was actually quite brilliant.

Observe my Third Party encounters.

(Something done easier on my desktop, hence switching back.)


This'll take me a while. But I'm going to study the mind of a Third Party Player, something I have such a poor grasp around. Some of these won't take long; I can track down most of my games as Mastin, and where I was third party.

Others, not so much; I still have to track down my games as mastin2. (Not hard, just do a search.) And as my hydras. (Okay, a little more work...) And not forget Marathon games. (...Oh, boy.)


...This increases the workload. First step, track them all down. Second step, actually *read* them all. (That will take a little longer. One of them, for instance, is Phables Death Note, one of the longest Large games of all time. It had MULTIPLE third-parties......)

[mastin2]

Stars Aligned, original. Need to look at those who went Murderer.

The MTG Games had multiple third parties.

The infamous Phables Deathnote had multiple.

Mean Mod (where I started using the term) had one.

Large 92 is the foundation of my Honorary Town stance for Third Parties. Had me (lyncher) auto-target cult recruiter (yes, cult. Yes, this was a Normal), so technically two third parties, though the cult was meant to act as a second mafia.

Beard Mafia.


That's it for Mastin standard, but there's a few Mastin-Marathon.

Here.
And Here.

I'll do a search later.


But still, that leaves a ton of work. Still gotta do essentially all my modern games, AKA, mastin2, plus marathon-mastin2, plus...
...Actually, did I ever see a third party as a hydra?

Oh, yeah. Both Pally games. AS the third party. Track 'em down soon enough.

[mastin2]

I'll be saving Planet of Hats and Apocalypse Mafia for last, since they'll be easier to read on my laptop because it's easier to access quicktopics on there than on my desktop. (Don't ask. )

Anyway, that still leaves all my mastin2 games, so let's see how many there are...

[mastin2]

Though dead before I replaced in, Mafia on Werewolf Island had one.
Oh, and I effectively acted as a Doctor-SK once my teammates were dead, so it's important to note the Mafia QT.

Mirror Mafia had one, in the form of Thor.
Death of Reaper Charlie had one, too.

Then there's the infamous Neruzian Era.

Plus Underground, though again, dead before I replaced in.

That covers the large normals. I don't think I encountered any SKs in Mini Normals. Nor did I play in any open with a SK. Nor the Mini Theme, other than what I just linked. So, that leaves...
...Large Theme, I guess.

Oversoul knows where this is going. Brightest Day Mafia.
If there's a link to the Cult QT, I couldn't find it.
I suppose Blackest Night should also be looked at, though, due to how similar they were.

So that's all I can think about, except for Marathon games.

That's a little more extensive.
Lucid Dreamers 3, Twisted Odd One Out 2, Mean Lucid Dreamers 1, Sudo's Vengeful, UPick, Nomination Mafia 2, Lucid Dreamers 4, Human Body,
Smalltown Greek Mythology (pretty sure that was an SK-win, hence the link),
Join this game for Vigging (actually, pretty sure that one had an SK), Post Restriction Mafia,
Lucid Dreamers 16, 9P Vengeful,


And that's it. I'll go check them later, see if any of the ones not linked have an SK in them.

[mastin2]

Oh, and while we're on the topic of related games.
Always wanted to read Stars Aligned 2.
Not to mention, The longest game by page number on Mafiascum (at least, longest I can find), Stars Aligned 3.

[mastin2]

Which means I've got 23.5 games worth of material to read for Third Parties.

This'll be fun.

(Only Mastin would be crazy enough to try and read two dozen games--some of them over a hundred pages--just to get a better idea of how a Serial Killer thinks*. )

*I think that if I can better understand the mechanics of a Third Party role, I can better understand how they play in THIS game. Sure, I'm confident in my ability to get in their head, but I'm still just giving an educated guess as to their thought process.

Exploring MD might be a good idea as well, if there's a good topic or two devoted to Third Parties.


Oh!
And the scummies!

Heh, that's probably the best place to look. Didn't think of that before, but Third Party Scummy Noms are the *perfect* place to look for ideal SK play and understand what they did which made them spectacular, which'll add, oh, probably another five or so games to the list. (I don't know how many SKs have been nominated.)

Well, I have a few weeks to read it all. I'll be done in one!
(...Don't take that as a promise. But yeah, now's a better time than ever to do lots of reading. This game, I can do any time before deadline. I can devote endless hours to it, countless work. Reading FOR this game, but not IN it? That takes a little more snooping around, a little more willpower, and I need the time the holidays provide me to do so. Meaning this next week is the best opportunity I have. I don't want to waste it.)

[mastin2]

Only three, heh. Well, for second-half. I'd need to track down the Scummy thread for First-half noms to see those.

Still, Got here, here, and here to do at the very least.

[mastin2]

It's no longer as important as it was before, but here's what I was going with when I asked Oversoul about the talk, since I typed this up before asking him:



Way I see it.
Oversoul said "completely random", as in "random.org".

I'm presuming that it was mentioned in the PMs that the neighborhood was random.

And that someone who thought similarly to how I did asked something along the lines of <b>

Mod: Define "random".

</b>

And that the mod answered, "completely random, as in, random.org", or something or another like that. Since having so much detail about it being random in the PMs is basically unnecessary clutter.


Now if this is right, then it'd have to be completely random.
As I demonstrated above, "random.org" could still mean that there's elements to the neighborhood not random. And if the mod didn't explicitly state that it was completely random, this would be possible.

But if the mod specifically said completely random, then it would have to be completely random, since if it were anything else, the moderator would be lying to the players and that would never fly with setup reviewers.




It's no longer important, since, well, I'm done for now pursuing this line of thought. Why?

I have a plan to win this game.

It'll take an eternity to finish. I'll probably have to read hundreds of games in a couple of weeks to make it work, and then read this one with a certain strategy, a specific mindset in use that is a product of the above reading.


But if this plan works.

If I succeed.

It'll all be worth it.

(Scared? You should be. Knowing you, you'll probably think it's an extremely lame plan if you saw the draft I typed up in my QT, but to me? It was an awesome plan. Slightly impractical, but nonetheless possible and awesome.)

[mastin2]

You're weird.

Mastin have you begun your plan yet?

Yeah.

Bit of a slow start, given how I lost power last night.

[mastin2]

we're waiting on mastins amazing analysis.

That doesn't give you an excuse to slack off.

Do work of your own and try to find the SK yourself.
And if you think you've found the SK, explain it, create a case, and argue with them.

During any other time, yeah, bad idea.

During lylo?

Best time you can do it.

[mastin2]

could we have a second scum? can scum shoot each other? this is important.

Could we?

Yeah.

But 1: we're pretty much screwed if there is and have no way of winning without a crosskill,
2: It doesn't make as much sense, and
3: Wouldn't change optimal play today at all; we'd still no-lynch.

[mastin2]

Only if you can explain this:

Pine Foolish Fool (Haylen + JordanA24), Mafia Roleblocker, chiasmused to death Night 4.