Mini 1217 - Campaign Mafia (Game Over!)

[Duplicity]

Hey everyone, this is a hydra of Regfan + Shift. We've both read through majority of this game prior to receiving our role and will have a discussion about it sometime in the morning. For the love of god though can we please not rush elect again today, the sole fact that Timeater was elected without making a single post makes my blood boil. With that said I'm leaning very heavily towards Johhog being town, I had a decently strong scum read on Pom earlier and Johhogs self nomination reads as town trying to take a stand after yesterdays occurrence.

I also strongly disagree with Shadow, although only two people can be voted today there's no need to limit discussion to them and them only. Doing so lets mafia know the very specific action they have to fake and leads towards a lot less information to use when deciding who should be nominated or voted for election in future days. We should most certainty be nominating town-reads though because doing so gives us a good idea of who we'll likely elect whereas electing a scum-read will not help at all if mafia nominate another scummy player to up against them.

[Duplicity]

Twistedspoon, I'm not stalking you, I can assure you of that much. I think this setup is actually heavily town sided, if we can all agree upon three town reads it's automatic win. Essentially the setup encourages people to discuss their town-reads a lot more and our ultimate goal is to come to a consensus or agreement on them which is highly intriguing.

Still waiting for Shift to get online but I'm almost certainty voting Johhog at this point and I want either Shadow or Hip nominated tomorrow, I think both are town. I'm leaning towards Lurc and Quilford being scum as well though last I spoke with Shift about the game he had a strong scum read on Quilford and a mild town-read on Lurc so we'll need to discuss that today.

[Duplicity]

I've been thinking about this, and I think it favors scum to volunteer first, so that scum have control over the scum nomination as well as the townie going against the scum nomination. Thoughts? Also, so much Wifom.

If you're town you would and should be certain that Johhog is scum and nominated first therefore you'd be certain that mafia believed it was in there best interest to self nominate. The fact that you're posing this as a question rather than a statement reads as you attempting to subtly hint towards your direct counter claim being mafia rather than outright saying it.

[Duplicity]

@ Packbat -

You're going to need to explain that because I'm struggling to follow your logic there. From what I gather you're saying X and Y voted to elect mafia therefore I don't trust X and Y and wish to vote the opposite of them. This fails because of two things:

A) Mafia know they need secure three elections therefore they aren't likely to pile on their teammate as it would lead towards them not being able to win elections past the first one so the logic of X and Y were on the mafia election thus likely mafia falls on it's head.

B) If mafia did all pile on their partner on the first election they would know their image is bad therefore they are likely to consider voting the town player almost instantly on future days to deter other people voting them and therefore increase the likelihood their partner gets elected with no blood on their hands.

@ Pomegrante -

It was posed as a question thus the question mark at the end of thoughts. You wanted to see other peoples opinions on the subject to see if they either agreed or not. If you truly believed that self-nominating was scum motivated you'd have stated that action by him would be a reason to why he's mafia but you didn't. The fact you're attempting to speculate over if his nomination is 'scummy' or not is what makes you mafia. You should be certain that he's mafia therefore you should be able to read through his actions throughout the game (Excluding the nomination because majority of that was due to pressure) and point out scum motivation on them or scumtells that he has dropped, you're not doing that at all.

To put it simply, what have you done in this game that should make me believe you're town and change my mind and what has Johhog does that I should be highly suspicious of and focus reading into?

[Duplicity]

@ Johhog -

You state that you have a scum-read on Quilford, if so then why is his 'odds' of being mafia 8%? I would actually love it if you could elaborate into your Lurc scum-read because it's one that I'm sharing but being unable to determine where my suspicion of him stems from.

@ Twistedspoon -

I was thinking a similar thing. Packbats logic reads strongly as scum attempting to find an (illogical) excuse to vote their partner though I'm interested in hearing his response to how his logic is incredibly flawed.

@ Pomegrante -

Discussion about whether mafia are likely to self-nominate or not is meaningless. If it's determined that they are likely to then it's less likely they will do so tomorrow and so the useless wifom game begins. Further Johhogs self-nomination was caused by Twistedspoons questioning whether people were highly suspicious of Johhog yesterday or not. The low amount of suspicion cast towards him made him an ideal nomination regardless of his alignment therefor ehim being nominated isn't a scum-tell at all. The fact that you're attempting to subtly throw suspicion towards me instead of actually convincing me that you're town is laughable at best.

[Duplicity]

@Johhog -

I don't understand the scum-read or considered scum-read on SD. The motivation behind his suggestions reads as geninue town but I see where you're coming from in regards to Lucr now and it's highly similar to my thoughts on him.

@Shadow Dancer -

Mafia have more information than town players just from the get go therefore information being shared and revealed is nearly always more beneficial for the town than the mafia. Don't get me wrong, I understand you're saying about giving them limited information to base their decisions of but consider it this way. It's guarenteed that a town player will die and no longer be able to post at the end of the day therefore the only opportunity they have to provide their reads and thoughts is now. This means that mafia already have information to base their decision of and it also means that there's minimal reasoning behind other people refraining from stating their reads. Further tomorrow discussion will have to occur about who will self-nominate and this information will also give them something to base their choices of. Overall there's no reason to refrain from outing information when mafia are likely to already have or hold it.

Just spoke with Shift and he has no qualms or disagreements with my suspicion of Pomp and also considers Johhog to be obvious town so I have no reason to refrain from voting though I will ask that no one hammers until all thoughts and information that need to be discussed today are done.

Vote: Johhog

[Duplicity]

Hello everyone, Shift here, this will be my first post as the rest are from Regfan. I'll be signing my posts, not sure what Reg will be doing.

First: I'm finding this entire game incredibly frustrating, primarily because there is essentially no town for any townie to count on - half the players in the game are scum, so it's a bear trying to get a sense of what the real townies are thinking.

Second: I think Shadow Dancer has the right of it. If the Mafia have no reads on the townies to go by, then the Mafia can't nominate scummy townspeople or towny scum.

Shadow and Pack, here's what you're not getting. It is much, much harder to fake multiple reads as scum than just choosing 1 campaigner to call scum and another to call town. Giving reads as you get them locks scum in. What you're suggesting is that we let them change their stance whenever they feel like it because town never forced them to take one. It is much easier to distance and get free townie points this way, and much easier to get a miselect this way. Linking through interactions will be nearly impossible

And Packbat, how do you expect to get strong town reads if we let scum just pick and choose when and where to take their stance? Demanding stances early before elections corners them. They cannot call someone scum and then change their opinion when their scumread is getting elected. They cannot call someone town and then vote for the other person. The sooner we corner scum the better, and we do this by forcing them to take stances.

Argument that "Everyone will be null at campaign time, reducing scum advantage" is also ridiculous. You are proposing that we have a better chance to win as town if we take a 50/50 with almost no info on either of the campaigners than when we get townreads and scumreads. The only info we get in Shadow's plan is their stance on previous elects, which it's easy for scum to distance well but it's just as likely that a townie guessed right. They are your town reads and scum reads

for a reason.

If you can't put any trust in your reads mafia is not the game for you. You're (Packbat) complaining that you're not able to get a strong town read at the same time as advocating an idea that ensures you will not be able to get a reliable read for the rest of the game. I want an explanation.

-Shift

[Duplicity]

Lurconis, that was a freakin stupid move. Quil and Pack are town. I'm having trouble getting a read on Duplicity.

Why the fuck did you attempt to theorize over whether Johhog self nominated as scum instead of actually convincing me you were town. Jesus fucking christ.

Relatively sure TS is town, don't think he'd have suggested to have his scum partner be nominated. Quilford is scum who voted Pom to get town-cred, unsure on Packbat now though. Lurcs hammer on Pom is opportunistic scum without a doubt though.

[Duplicity]

I was just so sure Johog was town and pom scum...

As was I, before replacing in I was following this and was near positive of Pomscum and Johhog town and Poms reaction towards being nominated near solidified that but her post-hammer comment is making me feel really nervous.

[Duplicity]

@ Twisted -

I don't believe you've played with Shift, he's relatively new. I agree with your town-read on Hip although I'm not sure I buy Lurc-town, I can see his hammer being scum going for town-cred on an inevitable scum lynch. I still have a decent town-read on SD his content seem to come from a town mindset (Albeit a very wrong one) meaning PoE actually makes Lurc likely mafia. At this point the only real people I'm comfortable having nominated and elected is you and Hip.

@ Shadow -

Tell Random.org it's going to have to wait. I don't want to be nominated and elected just yet, I fear doing so will be us leaving this game and watching town crumble to pieces. I don't want to get into a massive theoretical discussion and argument with you but the voting stage is

not

the only phase where we can influence things. If we can guarantee that the person nominated is someone we all believe is town we can almost assure another town election.

[Duplicity]

@ Twistedspoon -

If you're looking for previous experience he has had he's actually been playing at Epic Mafia for quite some time anyway here is his profile.

[Duplicity]

Epic mafia........

I'll stop asking questions now. I lost my appetite

...

brb, killing Regfan

I'm down for a hiplop nomination when we're ready

I don't think there's anyone with a serious scumread on him anyways...

Agreed. If/when we're right Twisted should be nom'd next for the winning point by the way.

-Shift

[Duplicity]

What the fuck. This is bad and I'm way too tired to try and work this out now. I'm heading to bed and will do a full re-read of this thread tomorrow sometime, unfortunately this also means one of our scum-reads are probably wrong. Starting to regret replacing in, I was hoping this would be a breeze nominate three town-reads elect them in and end it.

@ Mod -

Can you PM the remaining players letting them know the day started, I only just noticed when I saw Lurc post.

[Duplicity]

I hate this, every time I come to read this I feel unmotivated and continue putting it off. I'll get Shift to hound me and we'll go through this again sometime soon, promise.

[Duplicity]

We're both at a stand still right now. I'm leaning heavily towards TS being town, I don't think he would have bussed that strongly but Shift is insisting that there's no scum motivation for hiphop to put himself up against TS when he was planned and likely to be nominated and elected the next day.

Shift is a noob just like gorilla so I'll probably just ignore his decision.

Although I understand that the one week deadline means we can't draw/drag things out I really want another day or two to discuss this with Shift, no one vote before then please.

[Duplicity]

On the contrary - you thought "who's the towniest townie that I can still beat?"

Yeah, this is exactly what Shift was trying to convince me of yesterday. On a related note Shift is seemingly *gone*, he's not responding to the nudges I'm sending him right now so I'll probably try contacting him again to discuss this tonight.

[Duplicity]

@Packbat -

That's going to be a problem, you won't be back before deadline if you get internet difficulties then.

Shift just signed online, we'll be going through this properly now.

[Duplicity]

Shift and I are finally making some lee-way into this game. I'll let him post our thoughts when he wakes up (He's been complaining about not getting to do anything in the thread and having to follow my reads

like the bitch he is

). On a side I'll be away for most of the next two days (Friends 21st/Family Events) but I'll try and make sure I devote whatever time I have left to discussing this with Shift before the deadline.

[Duplicity]

Twistedspoon, why did you say hiplop was towny before he was selected to run against you today?

by PofE. because I was convinced I knew the scumteam and that hiplop had to be town for this to fit in

-------------

looking back at his iso it's just fluff to me. no analysis or anything

hipop lurked and posted fluff.

-------------

Let's take a quick peek at what you've said about hip before now because I'm pretty certain you've stated multiple reasons for why hip's town besides PoE. As a matter of fact several times PoE would have pointed towards him being scum but you still kept up your strong town read. And even then

you do not ask your town read from PoE alone to self nominate.

Furthermore you said earlier that his vote and actions made him unlikely to be scum with Pom, Pom has since flipped scum but you haven't mentioned anything about this and have attacked him for something you defended him doing earlier. Here's your exact quotes about him, where you contradict yourself multiple times:

Hiplop hasn't done much, but I have a small feeling that this is his town self. He seems much more outspoken as town imho. Having played many games with him, meta tells me his 3 posts are town ones. Weak town read on hiplop. With the high percentage of scum in this game, he could be scum though. pom can be reviewed tommorow. The voteparking and tunneling will look more suspect in the event of a manchu townflip. Probably not scum with hiplop either

hiplop and johog are my top townreads

hiplop is probtown since I don't remember his playstyle being a bussing one

I think hiplop or tova would be good candidates. I have townreads on them despite their infrequent posting

I think hiplop's maru vote seemed a town one. Even I at first voted maru for the same reason he did. It was the 'now to check my alignment' that was the killer though

my reads
{TS} me
{Quilford, Johog} very strong town
{Hiplop} strong town
{luc} most likely town
{SD} wildcard. His justification of the manchu lynch is... interesting

Duplicity, myself, and Luc make up the town with one more player who I'm unsure of. Probably Hiplop
SD, Quilford and Packbat are the mafiosi then.

ok, I'm confident the other 3 townies are hiplop, duplicity and Luc

I'm down for a hiplop nomination when we're ready. I don't think there's anyone with a serious scumread on him anyways...

I'd have preferred a hiplop nom....

I'm glad hiplop is against me because at any other nomination I'd have said he was the townie.

yeah, I'll admit hiplop being nominated was a bit of odd play since against anyone else I'd have made sure he was seen as the townie

until today I didn't consider hiplop to be scum. but now he's confirmed scum to me. with that in mind I will be reading his iso with hiplopscum in mind were i to read it now, rather than hiploptown as I previously did to fit my idea of the setup

Also, the notion that your activity level makes you obviously town is nothing short of ridiculous.

VOTE: hiplop

-Shift

[Duplicity]

You're kidding me. Shift PM'ed me saying he thought he came across something proving him right and I told him not to vote until I actually had time to read what he sent me. Still don't have the time or mental focus right now but I'm going to take a nap and I'll read through it when I wake up. I don't want any lolblitzhammers occuring before then so I'd appreciate if you unvoted as well Shadow.

Unvote

[Duplicity]

@ Shadow and Lurc -

Can you elaborate on your town-read on TS and scum-read on Hip because right now I'm heavily undecided. I have Shfit in my ear telling me he's right for once but this isn't reading as TS-scum at all.

@ Quilford -

You're just standing back and lurking, mind elaborating on your ever-changing thoughts and reads?

@ Twisted -

Can you explain in some more detail why you believed Pom/Hip was unlikely please.

Now it's nap time.

[Duplicity]

Vote: Lurconis

Hammer stolen. Lurconis or ShadowDancer should be online in an hour or two to state if the games over or not but I'm expecting that it is. I'd also love to see what mafias thoughts were when putting hip up against TS.

[Duplicity]

Bold your friggin' vote, Dup.

You better have a good reason for pointing this out because I'm livid right now, I PM the mod to find out if it's allowed to reaction-test via faking a non-vote vote, get a go ahead and try it to have it ruined by you. Waste of fucking time.

Shifts still online, going to have a discussion with him, we're potentially making a real vote in an hour or two, if we don't I'd appreciate no one hammers until we get a chance to state our thoughts.

[Duplicity]

I was really hoping that their reactions to my unbolded vote would clinch and seal the game but with that ruined neither of us are content having this day end earlier anymore. There's something that we came across which makes us a lot less comfortable about Lurc-town and I want to hear both SD and Lurc talk more before I point it out and this day and hopefully game concludes.

[Duplicity]

You better hope the mod does not count that unbolded vote because esle I predict that you just lost town the gmae, you goddamn stupid moron.

Yeah, yeah. I PM'ed the mod beforehand asking if doing so would lead towards a modkill or punishment and will it be counted as a vote and got a no on both accounts so don't go insulting me over nothing. I want to see that ISOing that you promised though.

[Duplicity]

I much rather this doesn't come to another day, I'm highly limited in time and having to deal with a three way lylo would be frustrating painful especially with the game on the line. We're not rushing today, end of. I'll explain my hesitation in voting Lurc and doubts that I have later (Brothers 18th birthday + Fathers day are today and tomorrow) but hopefully I come back to seeing a lot more content here.

[Duplicity]

All of my commitments end this afternoon/evening so I should be able to elaborate on my thoughts then.

[Duplicity]

What I came across upon my re-reading that made me strongly doubt Lurc-town was Post #377. It reads as scum feeling like they're caught due to the wrong reasons and attempting to over-explain how all of those don't make them mafia when the truth of the matter is peoples suspicion of him would be meaningless at the time considering he wasn't up for election or nomination. He went out of his way to attempt to defend himself to the degree where it strongly overpowered and previous attempts at scumhunting. (Shifts been telling me that over-defensiveness isn't a scum-tell but rather moreso a newb-playstyle indicator but I disagree.)

Anyway then Dup says he doesn't feel comfortable with me yet doesn't say why nor does he place his vote on SD. Why is this? Why would town not want to point out what he finds scummy about me, at this point in the game it is in towns best interest to reveal any hangups they have about either candidate so it can be examined by everyone it makes no sense to hold back info. He ends up saying he has RL stuff going on which is fine and understandable but you are a hydra dup neither head would of been able to post anything? I am going to look into the meta of your heads to see if you were active elsewhere during that time. Will post the results in a few hours.

Stating the reasoning right away doesn't help stimulate scumhunting at all, it just directs discussion and lets mafia know what angle they have to deal with. Allowing conversation to run smoothly and naturally means that reactions and interactions are much more relevant. You can 'Look up our posting-meta' all you want but it does nothing other than continue to strengthen my suspicion of you. If you're town you know that having yourself elected ENDS the game meaning you wouldn't care what our posting meta is or not but for lolshitsandgiggles read around, I've had limited time for this site in the last week or so and inactivity nearing lylo/in lylo is a common occurrence for me.

I'm still nowhere near ready to vote, there's a lot more I want to read into but this "Storytelling" as Packbat puts it needs to stop, those actions can be manipulated into presented any angle to look likely. Going to have a few more conversations with Shift tomorrow (He's gone to bed I think) and we should start reaching a consensus soon, we need to make sure not to miss this deadline and I'd rather not risk it ending in a no-election.

[Duplicity]

Fuck sakes, I don't understand the need to hammer at that point yesterday. Lurc was getting forced into a corner when it came to having to explain his attempts at 'gaining reads' elsewhere rather than pushing for his election which town would have done if it looked likely that they'd be elected on a town autowin position.

This game really needed to end yesterday, I'm severely lacking the time that a lylo deserves but I'll force Shift into actually spending more time on this game. I have a good idea who the last mafia is at this point but I'll find out for sure soon.

Join Election

[Duplicity]

Ugh. Good thing I didn't get hammer this game, I actually was near certain that Quilford was mafia and that his hammer yesterday was him attempting to save Lurc from scum slipping. I'm going to do some re-reading but I should have a good summary of why I'm town up tomorrow morning at latest.

[Duplicity]

Quilford, I urge you to read through some of my scum games. It'll become incredibly apparent that my scum-play is very weak in comparison to my town play and it should become very evident that I'm town just from reading that. If you want a list or links of games to read into just ask, in fact I've hydraed with Shift as scum before in Invicidus Mafia so read through that. Furthermore reading through interactions this game between Lurc/Pom/Hip and Packbat in comparison to their interaction with us should make it obvious that we're town.

I unvoted Hiphop because unlike Shift I actually have a lot of meta on Twisted and despite his contradictions he wasn't playing anything resembling his scum game at all nor was there major scum motivation for his actions (In particular his push for Johhog to be elected). The unbolded vote on Lurc was aimed to get reactions from Lurc and SD. I don't have the luxury of staying online and waiting for them to pop online to make it more effective given my time constraints at the moment but was hoping that no one would ruin it by pointing it out.

Scums choices for nominations and campaigns so far has very clearly shown that they've been intending to win this without it going to a 3 way lylo, this means they're attempting to avoid a weaker or more suspected player having to deal with an election; This is the definition of Packbat right now. You'll note that throughout the whole of yesterday whenever there was doubt on Lurc being town Packbat attempted to push us both towards voting him without stating any reasoning behind his read other than "Shadows ISO looks bad".

I'm heading to bed now but if you have any questions at all just ask them and I'll get to them in the morning or tomorrow afternoon.

[Duplicity]

My meta is slightly hard to describe. I act very differently when in a hydra in comparison to when alone and also differently depending on who is in the hydra with me. The best way to understand my meta would be reading through a few of my games, I'd suggest Invicidus Mafia, Mini 1156 and Mini 1147 would probably be the most relevant reads.

As town I tend to be very aggressive with my reads early in the game and reaction-test or attempt to use various gambits to obtain reads and then start to doubt myself, overthink and postpone decisions later in the game as evident by multiple of my lylo games. As mafia I'm normally very cool, calm and collected and try to avoid anything that shows any form of emotion because I don't know how to fake emotional tells. My posts are normally longer as scum and involve a large amount of reads lists because people seem to think that reading the game and categorizing players into groups is a town-tell and not something easily faked.

[Duplicity]

Normally I attempt to avoid posting announcing my alignment until the mod has confirmed the games over but that's slightly cruel in this case and I don't see how the game isn't over. I'm scum and I don't think you should beat yourself up for the mishammer, it was a very hard decision and I'd have hated to be in your shoes.

[Duplicity]

Personally I think the setup was very town sided, just from randomly deciding on the election town has a 50% chance at success, if you add scumhunting and other factors to that it should jump significantly but I do think it was an interesting concept to test.

Haha, actually when you said that I thought you were attempting to bait some sort of reaction out of me to confirm your town-read on me.