[REVIEW] Open Setup Reviews

Herodotus · Post Post #21 (isolation #0) » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:45 pm

I don't think broken is the right word for "Don't Cut the Red Wire"; it wasn't intended to be run after the first time.

About the comment you left on JK9. A good fakeclaim will help the mafia.

Herodotus · Post Post #36 (isolation #1) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 6:44 pm

Llamarble wrote:I promise full analysis of 2 masons 2 scum 1 VT sometime soon.

It should be simple, right? Either the scum claim masons for a 50%, or VT's for 1 - 2/3 * 1/2 = 67%, unless the townies' reads give them better chances.

Herodotus · Post Post #38 (isolation #2) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 7:52 pm

the probability of town winning without any immediate claims is:
P(lynching scum immediately) * ( P(VT killed) + P(mason killed) * P(town wins in 1/1/1) )
2/5 * (1/3 + 2/3 * 1/2) = 27%, so that's 73% for scum.

Herodotus · Post Post #101 (isolation #3) » Fri Sep 02, 2011 10:43 am

I have an idea for an alteration to My Name is Earl. Instead of calling both of the non-PR-named-roles Earl, they could be named based on the PR that they 'replaced' -- probably Nurse and Deputy. This would add to the Earls' claiming power, and reduce the difference in balance between the different scenarios.

The downsides are that mafia can never fakeclaim without being countered and town PR's are confirmed unless countered, which changes the balance and reduces the amount of thought involved in evaluating claimed PR's.

Herodotus · Post Post #354 (isolation #4) » Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:32 am

Someone attacked Assassins in the Palace!

↑ IceGuy wrote:
*
Assassin in the Palace

Not Mafia (informed majority vs. uninformed minority) and broken beyond repair anyway. Bin.

I disagree on the basis that the assassin is informed. If any one townie had the information that the assassin has, the game would end on Day 1 or 2 and the assassin would have only a small chance of winning.

↑ Magua wrote:I believe the binning is because Assassin in the Palace's optimal strategy is "Bandwagon the very first vote in a Day, absolutely no talking"

↑ izakthegoomba wrote:Yeah, AitP has to go. So long as the town is sensible, you may as well roll dice to see who wins.

You seem to assume that town can't do better than random in looking for the assassin without giving away the king's identity. I disagree. Find scummy-acting players, and lynch them.

@Magna post 352: Simulation is fine to show what you're simulating - that town has a way to make their EV 60% - but doesn't address whether that is the town's best strategy, so you didn't show AitP to be broken.

You did show that the balance needs adjustment. Would it be difficult to run the simulation again with a smaller game (1, 2, or 3 fewer guards)?

Or we could make the game larger, but include two assassins who share only one kill. 10/11+ guards, 2 assassins, 1 king, all the rules the same except that it's only the second assassin to be lynched who uses their 1-shot factional kill. I think that would put a lot more pressure on the town to scumhunt.

But I think it could be labeled experimental, as it is different from most games.

↑ IceGuy wrote:
*
Paris Mafia

If both mimes need to die by lynching, can't town simply win or force a draw every time by no-lynching?

If they want to let the mafia to win they can?

Herodotus · Post Post #356 (isolation #5) » Thu Nov 03, 2011 6:27 am

↑ IceGuy wrote:
↑ Herodotus wrote:I disagree on the basis that the assassin is informed. If any one townie had the information that the assassin has, the game would end on Day 1 or 2 and the assassin would have only a small chance of winning.

I don't get what you're trying to say here.

The assassin is uninformed (doesn't know who the king is), and in the minority.

The town is informed (knows who the king is), and in the majority.

The town is informed regarding who the king is, and the assassin is informed regarding who the assassin is. If any town player had the assassin's information (especially if it was a guard and not the king) the assassin would be in trouble. So the assassin has information they want to hide. Everyone is informed, even if they're not informed of the same information.

↑ IceGuy wrote:

You seem to assume that town can't do better than random in looking for the assassin without giving away the king's identity. I disagree. Find scummy-acting players, and lynch them.

Except that this process will help the assassin WAY more than the town. This is the basic problem in uninformed-minority games: The majority has no desire to gather information, as it will help their adversary more than themselves.

That's just an assertion...? I could as easily say "Except this process will help town way more than the assassin." I think the burden of proving that scumhunting is fruitless falls on the setup's detractors, if the goal is to disallow the setup from the experimental category of the open queue for that reason.

↑ IceGuy wrote:
↑ IceGuy wrote:If they want to let the mafia to win they can?

There's a Vig.

I feel like that's probably not enough to make town likely to win by not lynching. But I don't know.