[REVIEW] Open Setup Reviews

[Llamarble]

See if you guarantee that a scum run up will claim mason, you should never lynch a claimed VT.
I think a lot of the EV page things (named role and mason sections) are broken because of that.
That stuff is where game theory happens.
Both sides have "I will do this X fraction of the time" variables they need to set and then we do some math and find the nash equilibrium (point where neither side wants to change their strategy).
And then we need to think about "what if we randomly select somebody and let them choose who to run up" and stuff like that which generate extra information while making scum/masons less likely to get run up and making the problem more complicated.
I really like thinking about small-number-of-people-remaining situations.
I still need to put up that lylo article and work more on my scumhunting software tools / stats research.
I need to play less games so I can do more science it's fun but I feel guilty spending scumhunting time on it...

I promise full analysis of 2 masons 2 scum 1 VT sometime soon.

[Llamarble]

I'm pretty sure you're assuming massclaim immediately, which town doesn't want on account of the whole 67% option for scum thing.
Basically not massclaiming creates the possibility of scumlynch-> scum shoot VT -> town autowin.

BTW by "strategy" I mean choices for variables like percent chance you lynch a claimed VT instead of running up somebody else, etc.

[Llamarble]

If you run up a mason, they and their buddy claim. Shenanigans ensue.
I assure you you are oversimplifying.
Be patient and I shall create pretties.
Possibly very patient unfortunately.

Okay, I set up 1VT 2SCUM 2MASONS assuming random run-ups as opposed to we-pick-somebody-to-choose-who-to-run-up or voting or whatnot.
I am hoping (and somewhat expecting) some stuff to simplify out when I start solving, but right now I have something like 15 terms with a total of 10 variables, 4 of which scum set and 6 of which town set.

I know the answer is between 60% (scum always claim VT) and 66% (town can't do worse than starting with massclaiming) for scum though. Ha.
The reason it's all so complex is that scum have claim / counterclaim options, and if you don't lynch the first person run up you create a lot of branches, etc.

[Llamarble]

Also the Earl doesn't claim D1 unless he's run up, which makes D2 a 50/50 a of good chunk of the time and bumps town's odds of winning a good bit over 50%

Precisely, town winning percentage is:
1/4 d1scumlynch (1/5 immediate, 1/5 * 1/4 after first running up Earl)
1/5 * 3/4 * 1/3 // Run up Earl, then lynch town, then lynch scum.
3/5 * 1/3 * 1/3 // lynch VT, scum NKs Earl, lynch scum
3/5 * 2/3 * 1/2 // lynch VT, scum NKs VT, lynch scum

Total is 56.7% for town, and that's lynching randomly, which I think we expect towns to improve upon.

[Llamarble]

Ah, I thought Mith came up with it
Here
Is what he mentioned as his reason for wanting to play the whiteflag game during team mafia.