PYP 5: Democracy Ho! (Game)

[Hoopla]

Hoops, is massclaim or some number bet thing claimy thingy feasible here?
/you probably have some strategy first post planned already but etc.

To my knowledge, there shouldn't be a numbers plan, unless we wanted to massclaim and smalltown it, but I don't think that is a good idea, really. I designed this setup with SpyreX. We changed the draft to eliminate most of the number theory/neighbourhood analysis, so it's more based on scumhunting.

So, who are we wagoning at the moment? Lets see...

VOTE: Nocmen

[Hoopla]

How exactly will this prove someone to be scum? The only way you can prove this is if scum lie about their bids. Even then, if they wanted to lie, they could just bid under a known number that exists of their partner's, or a number in the thread that is already claimed.

I think massclaim is more dangerous given that most players will have only one or two powers. Power spread across more people means we'll be playing in a mostly mountainous setup from Day 3 onward. But on N1 and N2, you can't exactly make solid plans as there are too many variables to control. It seems suboptimal to massclaim D1.

[Hoopla]

You are looking for what you *think* scum would have taken and that is weak scum hunting at its best.

This looks like you're implying Zdenek is town.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Juls

If Juls flips scum we're massclaiming.

[Hoopla]

No, I am not implying Zdenek is town. See vote at the bottom of my post. Weak scum hunting is a synonym for fake scum hunting.

I don't classify that as weak scumhunting. He got it wrong in terms of it being beneficial to town, but it is indicative of town mindset. He is thinking outside of the box. Scum don't do this early in the game - if anything,

your

mindset is indicative of scum. You've pounced on something that appeared to be a negatively received idea, while ignoring the motivation behind the idea. This is lazy/negligent at best and opportunistic at worst.

I'm going to requote this line though;

You are looking for what you *think* scum would have taken and that is weak scum hunting at its best.

Unless I've gone crazy, this looks like you're addressing Zdenek. Whilst doing so, you're applying town motivations to him -

"You are looking for what you think scum would have taken..."

- which could be subconscious knowledge of you

knowing

Zdenek is town slipping into your post.

[Hoopla]

If the plan was such a pro-scum idea, do you really think scum would suggest it straight up?

[Hoopla]

The line you keep beating your drum about "You are looking for what you think scum would have taken..." is exactly what I mean.

Also, I'm not talking about what the sentence means with this quote, I'm talking about the wording. It looks like you

know

Zdenek is town based on how you address him and summarise his position.

[Hoopla]

Alright someone has some serious explaining to do.

Fate's blowing his "GAMBITZ LOLOL" wad early this game. Ignore him. He'll play normally if you don't give him the attention.

[Hoopla]

And I don't believe the mason shit either.

What do you mean exactly..?

[Hoopla]

Hey Fate.

Is Juls scum or town? I want a real answer.

[Hoopla]

*shrug*

VOTE: Maruchan

[Hoopla]

I'm simultaneously amazed and disgusted with how much influence Fate has in this game.

[Hoopla]

Now what would be REALLY amazing if I was scum and had whole TOWNS bending to my whim like this!

That's actually exactly what I'm thinking. It would be amazing if you could muster up such a following as scum. A much simpler explanation is that you're town and lazy scum are sheeping you just because they can get away with it. This also in turn makes it likelier that Maruchan is town.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: gandalf

His two posts in the game so far have sucked. Awkward and empty. He's one of the scum on the Maruchan wagon.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, is Nocmen wagon on town? Are lazy scum sheeping there too?

Nocmen was the random wagon at the beginning of the game. It carries less weight. Most of the people on it haven't posted since like page 2.

[Hoopla]

Look at the people on the wagon.

Scum aren't powerbussing Maruchan. The pieces don't fit.

[Hoopla]

So there is no scum on random wagon's Hoopla? I was under the impression the wagon on Nocmen was actually

not random

There might be, there might not be. I'm not going to guess for the sake of guessing. We have plenty of other better information to work with, ie; Maruchan's wagon.

[Hoopla]

Your read on Seraphim is _______ (fill in the blank)

Slightly scummy.

~~

Also, instead of lynching on D1, we should get the Day-vig to shoot them, so we get a double day for Day 1.

This has the benefit of it being an extra town-driven kill, regardless of which alignment has it. If it's scum, we either force them to use it on who we want, or they can't claim it and risk being caught by Role-Cops and we now know the Day-vig is scum, which is handy information we essentially get for free by playing it this way.

[Hoopla]

[Hoopla]

Before we decide to vig, three things should happen;

1) Actually decide on a player. Maru doesn't have a majority.
2) Get a role-claim from the player to be vigged.
3) Reevaluate.

[Hoopla]

STOP FUCKING WITH ME

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, you WILL lynch Maru if this shit is real, right?

Don't worry. I will avenge you.

I have a sneaking suspicion he's lying. Either way, I want him dead now.

[Hoopla]

Oh right.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Maruchan

[Hoopla]

Real day-vig can go ahead when they're ready.

[Hoopla]

Thanks gandalf.

[Hoopla]

Bluh. I was actually enjoying playing with Fate for once too.

I actually agree with chamber and Nocmen somewhat. It's hard seeing this as scum motivated. It's hard seeing it as town motivated too, though. I believe Maru's insistence that he just wanted to join the game so he could shoot someone - him selecting dayvig and shooting someone is null - but it's likelier he'd be talked out of it by his buddies if he was scum. I suppose if Maru was adamant he was going for vig, his scumteam would pick someone like Fate who could be the other vig/PGO/whatever else they deemed dangerous, to at least get something out of it before he suicides.

Here's the dilemma. Maru is a troll who probably won't try, or even if he does, he won't be useful. We have no way to vig him, and scum sure as hell isn't going to kill him, and we certainly can't leave him alive until endgame. We either need to have the Cop investigate him or we lynch him today while the lynch is less important. I'd rather not waste a cop result on someone useless (especially if he ends up being town - an innocent is more useful on someone else).

He's probably town, but I think the right play is to lynch him today on the chance he is scum.

VOTE: Maruchan

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, you are better than that.

You'd seriously be cool with Maruchan living deep into the game?

[Hoopla]

I lynch people I think are scum not people I don't want to play with.

I could see him being scum.

I don't know what the exact odds are, but they're probably not that much lower than my other scumreads. On day 1, when things are more random, I'd rather lynch based on secondary factors (or at least weigh them in more) like potential helpfulness to the town, potential scumhunting ability and potential night power. We sacrifice in all three areas if we lynch someone other than Maruchan (this assumes both Maru and the alternative is a mislynch).

I think retaining higher amounts of those other qualities is more likely to benefit the town in the long run, as I feel those differences outweigh the difference between Maru odds or being scum and someone else. Does this make any sense?

[Hoopla]

WHEE so maruchan ruined my enjoyment of the game in record time.

^Scum

VOTE: Katsuki

[Hoopla]

K.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Nocmen

[Hoopla]

'cause you're probably town. I'm happy to help.

Do you think you'll get my back later when I want help with say a Katsuki or implosion wagon?

[Hoopla]

Chamber, CES...

Explain what is happening with this Nocmen wagon to me.

[Hoopla]

Does Reck even remember that he signed up for this game? Can you prod him, Spy?

[Hoopla]

My reason was totally serious fyi.

Your reason to vote Nocmen?

[Hoopla]

WHAT IN THE FUCK. THANKS FOR THE HEADS UP THIS GAME HAD STARTED, DICK.
OH AND THANKS FOR THE ROLE PM,

DICK

OH WAIT

LITERALLY ZERO

OF THOSE THINGS HAPPENED.

not reading 12 pages, someone gimme the tldr

Reck, did you get to spend points?

[Hoopla]

Okay, Reck is town.

If he was scum, he would be talking with his team pregame about selections and have no excuse to forget about this game.

[Hoopla]

chamber, how confident are you that CES AND Nocmen are scum? What would it say about CES if Nocmen flipped town?

[Hoopla]

DX: Claiming strongman nullfies the role, scum or not. Scum motivation there?

Come on...

You can get it...

[Hoopla]

Chamber, can you confirm you actually used self-protect last night?

[Hoopla]

It's a reason, just because you think its a bad one doesn't change that. I'm just going to get shot again tonight and I already used my self protect, so I don't need excuses anyway.

Looks like a bluff to trick scum into thinking he's a safe kill, then he busts out a self-protect. I want confirmation.

[Hoopla]

Chamber, can you confirm you actually used self-protect last night?

I really WILL die tonight if I do that.

We have plenty of Watchers and Doctors on stand by.

[Hoopla]

Nice try. Had me fooled for a bit.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: David Xanatos

[Hoopla]

Guys, save your energy for tomorrow. You especially Sera, there's no town points to be won here.

[Hoopla]

meh ok

Vote: DX

if he's town Sera dies tomorrow

No, if David flips scum, Sera dies tomorrow.

Seraphim's play is textbook scum trying to capitalise on a dying partner. When you're scum going down, you try and squeeze as much out of it as you can - whether that is outing other PR's, tying yourself to townies or your partners trying to net some town points for pushing the wagon. This is what Seraphim is doing - he's trying too hard to be the enforcer, catching scum in his lies. Chamber's 322 was enough - Sera is trying to wring the last drops of town points from it.

[Hoopla]

LOL Sera...

[Hoopla]

It means I'm coming for you.

[Hoopla]

It means I'm coming for you.

How? Like, explain the emote to me. Because it's seriously bugging me now.

You'd like that, wouldn't you?

[Hoopla]

[Hoopla]

Lol. Sera is so scum.

Also gandalf, what was the action you were supposed to claim yesterday?

VOTE: Seraphim

[Hoopla]

Sera is still town.

On what grounds? He's done nothing town at all this game. And in a game with loads of obv-townies, that's a crime in itself.

[Hoopla]

CES, do you have any thoughts on the following players: Katsuki, Parama, Ellibereth.

[Hoopla]

Am I townie?

[Hoopla]

If Juls flips scum we're massclaiming.

Explain this to me first. Then I'll answer.

I thought she was scum at the time and she seemed to be unnecessarily in favour of massclaim - meaning she probably didn't want it to happen from a scum perspective.

[Hoopla]

And you were prepared to risk it based on that? I wouldn't be, especially given that scum would have had plenty of time to discuss what to claim. You're also assuming Julsscum would be aware of whether mass claim is a good strategy here.

Risk what? It was a mostly empty page 2 statement.

[Hoopla]

Not going to let you play the RVS card here for various reasons. I don't particularly care if you were prepared to go through with it.

I'm not playing the RVS card, but you're taking my post as gospel like it was some genius plan that was going to break the game for town, when the truth is it was merely a vehicle for promoting more suspicion on Juls. I'm not going to explain it any more than that, because I'd just be making shit up. Take it or leave it.

[Hoopla]

Why aren't the Sera-town supporters promoting another wagon? I, myself, would suggest Katsuki if you're struggling for choices...

[Hoopla]

Speaking of which, I have another tracker result (I won both). Not entirely sure what to make of it, though. thoughts?

Claim who you tracked but not the result. Then we'll decide.

[Hoopla]

gandalf, why did you spend 97 on the Cop?

[Hoopla]

It's also important to note that if scum won a particular role, such as Cop for say, 50 points, they can easily claim they bid any number above that without fear. It could be a good way to disguise their other bids. Gandalf's reasoning does seem pretty town, though.

[Hoopla]

5 - 1-Shot Neighborizer C
5 - 1-Shot Vigilante
85 - 1-Shot Day Vigilante
1 - 1-Shot Fruit Vendor
1 - 1-Shot Weak Doctor
1 - 1-Shot Self-Watcher
1 - 1-Shot Vanilla Vigilante
1 - 1-Shot Self-Doctor

That spread of points seems like a really stupid bid. If that's really what you bid on you should feel silly.

[Hoopla]

6) spend most points as you would normally so you can claim pretty much truthfully, coordinating with the scum team to make sure the bids are spread out. You can probably spare 20 points or so to try to get useful scum-oriented roles and then lie about how you used these..

Is that what your strategy would be? What would you normally do as town?

[Hoopla]

yay

Vote: Hoopla

No. Not yay Hoopla. I'm town and I targeted

you

. I

did not

target chamber.

Juls is either a bold faced LIAR, or I've been redirected. If it's the former it's a pretty stupid trade and I'm completely blown away if scum was prepared to trade 1-for-1 here. The only explanation I have for why Juls would even attempt such a gambit is if scum have the Redirector and claim that JULS was redirected to skew her Watcher result.

We haven't had the Role Cops outed just yet - maybe scum KNEW Juls was the Watcher through a Role-Cop investigation and KNEW she'd use it tonight because she already claimed to use her other actions on N1 and N2? That would be a really clever way to set someone up if scum have a Role-Cop/Redirector combo.

This is a shitty situation, and I don't expect to be believed at all, but something screwy is going on here. I'm town and even though I'm going to be lynched, at least let me post my final reads so you have something to work with when I'm gone. Give me a sec.

[Hoopla]

And which is it exactly? I was redirected or you were. You seem confused.

I have no idea. Of course I'm confused. I've been stitched up either in a calculated move or by chance. I'm still trying to figure it out too.

I bodyguarded Reck.

[Hoopla]

35 - Bodyguard (Success)
46 - PGO (Fail)
19 - Self-Doc (Fail)

[Hoopla]

I wanted options to benefit the town if I'm targeted for the scum kill (Self doc, PGO), or if I'm not playing well enough to warrant the scum kill and there are other obv-townies (Bodyguard). I was realistic in the sense I wouldn't win all of my bids.

[Hoopla]

Tell me about your conversations with elli? Do you think she is town?

Elli was out town a lot, so we didn't get to talk much - we didn't even ever get around to claiming to each other. We shared mutual reads and discussed who we wanted to Neighbourise on N2 - we picked you obviously because we wanted to pick a mutual town read who wasn't too town they'd be killed, but would still be helpful to have a neighbourhood with. The value was kind of lost when Elli went away for a while.

I'm writing up my reads now, but I think Elli is in the neutralish section, which is by default scummy since we have so many obv-townies.

[Hoopla]

I have trouble figuring out why you thought I was town but went after me day one pretty hard. I never saw any indication that your read on me changed.

You explained yourself adequately after my early scumslip suspicion, but since then was very insightful - your call on Seraphim at the start of Day 3 was very good, and you offered a lot of well reasoned thoughts. Your role selections look pretty town too.

[Hoopla]

Okay, I've got some of my analysis out of the way. Will try and do more soon;

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised with the speed of the game given the playerlist - until this point I've just been rolling with it, trying to adapt as best as I can, rather than trying to fight it, but in all actuality, today is probably going to be another speedlynch. Once I'm gone, I'd at least like a few townies to step up and slow the game down and try to analyse the game in a deeper way. This game is rich with frantic, rushed lynches which is just dripping with information. Try and use it please.

We're getting to the point where we're developing a solid core of obvious and probable townies, so I think we can start doing PoE vote count analysis earlier than usual. For the sake of completeness, I'll give explanations for each of the players I've "cleared";

Reckoner

- Almost certainly town. His late entry into the game would have had to be a strange and creative scum gambit for it to be disbelieved. He's now been cleared by gandalf too, which even if gandalf is scum, it'd probably be wiser to claim an innocent on a townie than your buddy, as it's a greater risk of back-to-back lynches if one were to flip scum. I don't think scum would link themselves like this.

implosion

- Caught David, which although isn't conclusive evidence, you'd have to think he is highly likely town. The fact he picked two Trackers which is a largely useless scum role seems like a waste of points from that perspective.

gandalf

- Not town to the same degree as the other two, but the reasoning behind his role selection was pretty convincing. I also don't think scum would burn effectively half their points on Cop/Gunsmith when there is a whole slew of roles that can catch them.

Juls/Magister Ludi - probably town, but not to the same level as the other three, and for the sake of my vote count analysis, I won't green their name as there is still some slight doubt from my perspective. Still paranoid about a Juls-scum gambit.

~~

1) This was the Vote Count at the time when Maru used his Day-kill:

Official Vote Count

Maruchan

- 7 -

Maruchan

,

Fate

,

gandalf5166

,

Seraphim

, Parama, Cogito Ergo Sum,

David Xanatos

- (L-3)

Nocmen

- 3 -

chamber

, Katsuki, Zdenek - (L-7)

Katsuki

- 1 -

implosion

- (L-9)

Parama

- 1 - Nocmen - (L-9)

Seraphim

- 1 - Magister Ludi - (L-9)

Zdenek

- 1 - Juls - (L-9)

gandalf

- 1 - Hoopla

Players not voting: Ellibereth, Vifam,

xRECKONERx

For the sake of completeness, I was on this wagon up until about 15 posts before this event happened. Knowing I am town though, it's striking to me that this entire wagon could only have one scum on it - I don't think that's a likely outcome. Maruchan served himself up on a silver platter, with what was effectively a "LYNCH ME" post. Although town was well within their rights, scum would have been licking their lips at such a cheap and easy vote.

We did have a lot of lurkers around at this point, which scum could easily fall within, but Parama and CES look very bad from this snapshot.

2) Final Vote Count of Day 1:

Official Vote Count

Maruchan

- 9 -

Seraphim

, Parama, Cogito Ergo Sum,

gandalf5166

,

implosion

,

David Xanatos

, Vifam, Hoopla, Zdenek - (L-0)

Seraphim

- 2 -

chamber

, Magister Ludi - (L-7)

Parama

- 1 - Nocmen - (L-8)

Players not voting: Ellibereth, Juls, Katsuki,

Maruchan

,

xRECKONERx

The vote count refreshed after Maruchan took his shot, and without individually analysing each vote in isolation, it's easy to lose context of what happened here. It would have been very easy to find reason to lynch Maruchan, and I think the majority of the people on his wagon are those who were just online, as opposed to a real representation of who wanted the lynch to happen. I wouldn't have been surprised if any of the other non-voters wanted to lynch Maruchan if they had been around. What's more interesting here is the small group of people who actively chose to defect. Knowing a town flip was on it's way, it would have been very tempting as scum to sit this one out knowing the lynch would go through anyhow.

Nocmen and Magister Ludi are both the standouts here, obviously with a preference for Nocmen. I'll try and talk more about the Maruchan wagon fallout later if I'm granted enough time.

3) Nocmen wagon early on Day 2:

Official Vote Count

Seraphim

- 1 - Magister Ludi (L-8)
Nocmen - 7 - Cogito Ergo Sum,

chamber

, Hoopla, Zdenek, Juls, Parama,

gandalf5166

(L-2)
Cogito Ergo Sum - 1 - Vifam (L-8)

Players not voting:

David Xanatos

, Ellibereth,

implosion

, Katsuki, Nocmen,

Seraphim

,

xRECKONERx

This is an important wagon to look at, mostly because David was

opposed

to this one. Given the speed at which this wagon took off, it seems unrealistic that any other scum would defect from the Nocmen wagon. Note: Seraphim AND Katsuki were threatening hammers here. The key players here who skipped the reasonless Nocmen wagon were Magister Ludi and Vifam. Both of these players appear to fare quite well from this picture, however;

If Nocmen is town, there is at least two scum on the wagon, with a good chance of three since Elli was the only unconfirmed player not voting or threatening to vote Nocmen. So, for Nocmen to be town, three scum are here: CES, Zdenek, Juls, Parama, Katsuki, Ellibereth. For the sake of this exercise I'm not including me, but feel free to filter me in as a possibility for your own equation.

Now, if Nocmen is scum, we need two scum from same group of people; CES, Zdenek, Juls, Parama, Katsuki, Ellibereth.

This would be an important equation to consider - I have solid town reads on Zdenek and Juls, though I'm not ruling out the possibility of this being a Juls-scum gambit. It seems like we're cutting out a lot of possibilities if Nocmen is town. There aren't many possible 3-player scumteams from those set of players as far as I'm concerned. Nocmen being scum solves a lot of problems here.

There is a chance I'm wrong on Magister Ludi or Vifam, as both votes were earliest in the day when there wasn't the binary choice of choosing Nocmen/not choosing Nocmen, but I think Nocmen being scum is a likelier explanation than this one.

4) Seraphim wagon on Day 3.

Official Vote Count

Katsuki

- 2 - implosion, Seraphim - (L-6)

Nocmen

- 1 - Cogito Ergo Sum - (L-7)

Seraphim

- 8 - Hoopla, Juls, xRECKONERx, Zdenek, gandalf5166, Katsuki, Magister Ludi, Parama - (L-0)

Zdenek

- 1 - Vifam - (L-7)

Players not voting: chamber, Ellibereth, Nocmen

The Sera wagon was powered through and I wouldn't be surprised if scum was off this wagon - there is no way all three would be on this wagon to its completion. CES, Vifam, Elli, Nocmen are these possible players, and I'm sure at least one is scum here, again with a preference for Nocmen. His connection with the other wagons just makes too much sense and connects too many pieces of the puzzle.

~~

Here are my reads in a sliding scale sort of order;

Town:

Reck
implosion
gandalf

Zdenek

(I agree with Seraphim here, that Zdenek/David interaction early looks too natural for it to be a scum/scum conversation. Scum would have to have been very canny to plan such a maneuver.

Magister Ludi

(Neighbouriser/White Mage pick looks like a pretty solid combination. If Juls is scum, then Ludi isn't, but if Juls is town then their partnership together is probably town/town)

Neutral:

Juls

(Thought she was pretty town, but I can't shake the possibility this is some epic scum gambit that's playing out that I can figure out)

Parama

(Strongman pick is kinda town the way he claimed it, but I'm not 100% sold)

Elli

(I want to believe he is town since he picked 3 neighbourisers, but he's done this before as scum, and I'm still paranoid about him. At times he gives me good vibes though)

Vifam

(hasn't done much, but is scummier than everyone above him and by PoE slightly scummy - it's what happens when everyone else is town)

CES

(same as above, though slightly scummier since chamber died with suspicion on CES)

Scummy:

Katsuki

(Done nothing, scummy opening post Day 2, PoE)

Nocmen

(explained mostly in my wagon analysis post. It makes too much sense)

[Hoopla]

Ludi is town, independently verified by implosion's track.

Well, if that's the only thing in my post to argue on, I expect my other reads to be enforced and acted on when I'm gone.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Nocmen

[Hoopla]

I hate being average or below average. I should be better at this. I have played it enough to be. I just don't get it. Argh! I want to be better!

Don't be silly. You were onto me if that's any consolation!



But really, you don't deserve to be lumped into the "average" category. Do you know what the average mafia player is like?