Open 386 - Lovers Mafia - Game Over

[saulres]

Hi guys!

When I saw "5 pages" I was intrigued, when I saw "LyLo" I was sold.

I'll be reading the thread shortly (lots of work this morning) but should be able to post my impressions within a couple of hours.

[saulres]

Finished the first read through, took some notes, but my strongest reads right now are:
Town: Kami
Scum: shotgun

Since it's LyLo, unless I find a for-sure scumslip when I read again I won't be rushing to a vote. But I will be putting up a case against shotgun.

I'll also be looking at vote patterns, because the way this game works it would be highly risky for scum to bus.

Plus there are only six possible scumteams so reading such a short game six times shouldn't be a problem. (I'd be reading with "This time, let's say A and B are the scum. Do the post motivations match?" "Okay, this time, A and C are the scum." Wash, rinse, repeat.

Does anyone want me to answer the RQS? I will if you do, but I don't want to waste my time if there's no need.

[saulres]

Heilo puts in a random vote on Kass
Kami puts in a random vote on DK/vincent/me
Kondi wagons Kami, almost saying it's a legit vote.
Kass puts in a random vote on heilo
shotgun wagons kass

Analysis: Possible Kondi-shotgun scumteam putting two people at L-2 to see if a townie jumps on one of the wagons allowing for a hammer

Right after Vincent joins the game, kondi moves his vote to Kass, putting him at L-1 without announcing it. Hoping to lure Vince into hammering?

Kami does not hammer (feels town-motivated, but that's wifom)

helio unvotes kass, then revotes, so still at L-1

No one hammers kass at L-1, despite many clean opportunities to do so. So kass scum or both scum on wagon. Clears kami and vince/me.

kami votes shotgun

kondi moves to kami. Kami has no other votes at this time. Possible scum move realizing his other failed wagon won't work?

kami votes heilo. shotgun put heilo at L-1 (Kassadin, Kamikrazy, drmyshotgun), and doesn't announce it

again

, conveniently remembering it after the mod makes it clear.

kondi gives lip service to not hammering, but eventually does after saying he'd decide to if kami said to. BUT KAMI SAID NOT TO.

Vote analysis shows likely shotgun/kondi team.

The rereads of the six will take some time, work is very busy today. Plus, y'know, I'm not the only person to have opinions on what happened, and I'd love to hear yours.

[saulres]

Of course there's WIFOM. It's a mafia game.

Yes, I said possible scum motivation to some posts. That doesn't mean it's guaranteed, it's just something to look at in the aggregate after I go through all the pairings.

Which will probably take all weekend at this point. Busy day

I do feel shotgun is more likely scum than you, BTW. And since we only have to hit one this game to get both, we only have to find one. That's a good thing.

[saulres]

In my initial readthrough, Kassadin made no impression on me whatsoever. I had to keep checking that he was in the game.

A quick ISO shows no content whatsoever. But a quick meta shows that's the playstyle, and not necessarily indicative of an alignment. I agree with you that he would have been a better D1 lynch, because if he's town, he reminds me of a player in a newbie game I played with (lost to the crash) who posted once a day, very little content, no real questions, and then one day before deadline, made the wrong choice. If that's going to happen again I'd almost rather he placed the wrong vote now and let the scum quickhammer the game so I don't have to go through that again. It was painful.

[saulres]

drmyshotgun, let me tell you something. I knew kuribo. He was a friend of mine. And mister, you are no kuribo.

[saulres]

Sometime over the weekend, or Monday. I only have time tonight for quick hits.

[saulres]

Vote: Kondi

Haven't finished reading -- fucking unvote! We're in LyLo!

[saulres]

Man you nearly gave me a heart attack.

Anyone else read where I said I could only come on for quick votes? And after this I'm going to be offline until tomorrow.

Let me clear some things up.

1) I said I

suspect

a shotgun - Kondi scumteam, not that I'm convinced.
2) I said I need to reread the thread looking for possible connections before I even consider laying down a vote.
3) I said I'd make a case sometime over the weekend or on Monday.

Saul himself couldve just hammered himself

WTF? I'm not a double-voter, I couldn't hammer anyone by myself when there was only 1 vote on 1 person and 1 vote on another.

pedit: Yeah, I saw, I just freaked out when I saw that and used Quick Reply to tell you to undo it.

And oh fuck Kassadin unvote!

[saulres]

Oh look both Kondi and shotgun posted when there's a vote on me. That ends the "kondi-shotgun" team theory right there.

Doesn't mean neither of them is scum. Just means they aren't scum together.

[saulres]

I couldn't sleep (pain meds -- don't ask. I'll be happy when I can be done with them).

First, from where I sit, I see this:

I'm town. There were two votes on me and Kami posted but didn't hammer. So Kami is also town.

That leaves these combinations:
shotgun-kondi
shotgun-kass
kondi-kass

shotgun-kondi could have hammered me at 147-148, and they didn't. Unless they're just playing with us cruely, Kass is definite scum. His partner? Doesn't matter due to the setup.

VOTE: Kassadin

my above post outlined the EXTREME unlikely hood of a Kass/Kondi or Kass/Shotgun team. That means that the only possible scum partner Kass can have is Saul.

This logic I don't understand at all. It's based totally on your theory that shotgun and Kondi wouldn't bus Kass on D1? They could if they didn't think there'd be a hammer so early in the game (a reasonable assumption). I can't spend time now looking at it (have to try to get back to sleep) but Kami, if you do, I strongly suggest you look through the game with Vincent/me town and Kass scum, and see if you can pick out the partner. I also suggest whichever of kondi/shotgun is also town, to look through the game with Kass and the other scum, and see if it makes sense.

Not sure when I'll be back online now that my sleep is so screwed up...

[saulres]

Bleary eyed...

This makes me lean towards Kondi being the other scum. That helps target the reading for Kami (unless shotgun's pulling one again to look town).

A couple of small things on kondi, but one thing which really stood out on my initial readthrough: His hammer. In 109, he said his decision to hammer would be based on if Kami said to hammer or not. Kami said not to, but kondi did anyway. He was probably worried Heilo would get away.

Gonna try to sleep now, again...

[saulres]

You put Kass at L-1 after that?

Vote: Saulres

Dammit, Kami, did you read it? From where I was sitting, he was the

only

was who was guaranteed mafia.

How did you miss that?

[saulres]

shotgun, do you want me to present my case against you so you can learn what made you look scummy to me? I can't do it for a couple of days.

[saulres]

I didn't expect you to follow it blindly. What I expected was for you to question it and stuff. You said the reason you voted for me is because of my action. If you read my argument, there was nothing wrong with the logic of my action. So that in itself is not a lynchable offense. If you waited until I had more time I would have put together a case, and defended myself.

I'd also love to know why I looked so scummy from what I think was three posts.

[saulres]

Thanks for letting me replace in, Jackal. I love coming in at LyLo, I just wish I had had more time to make a proper case, and that the slot I was replacing didn't seem so scummy -- at one point after I realized Kass was scum, I was trying to analyze the bus votes Kami commented on, and for all it looked liked Vincent was the scum there. Kondi, why did you risk someone agreeing with your assessment and hammering?

Also, very smoothly run game from what I saw, Jackal. You were there and on top of it. Good job.