Open 392 - Friends & Enemies & Enemies -Corporate Espionage

[Psyche]

If you say so.

13 pages of seet analysis fodder. I hope I'm up to the job...

[Psyche]

Psyche whose your Mafia partner whose been doing the killing while DK was afk

Ohai, you. I hope you aren't asking that question seriously given that I'm not scum.

[Psyche]

Woah. 2 v 2 v 1.


If we lynch a werewolf, that means we lose.
If we lynch a goon, we have 2 v 1 v 1 and only a double NK against scum will save us.

This simply sucks.

[Psyche]

Oh, this is easy. Me an BB are town. So the scum are

-Trevor
-havingfitz
-Whiskers
-drmyshotgun

And...It seems I counted badly. Wonderful. 3 v 2 v 1.

We lynch wolf, it's 2 v 2 by tomorrow and we lose.
We lynch goon, and it's 3 v 1 v 1, and proceeds to either a win or a 2 v 1 LYLO.

With Molla confirmed, it's now just a matter of finding the last town and then the scum with connections. Great.

[Psyche]

(Or 1 v 1 v 1, a draw(?))

[Psyche]

lolk.

Ok guys, I've cracked the case.

Trevor is the werewolf.
Shotgun and Whiskers are the goons.
Fitz is town.

I've put a lot of work into this and will be so proud if it turns out right. But I think the evidence very, very clearly supports this conclusion. I don't even care if we ultimately win or not. But whatever. Next post is where I organize my notes into a tripartite case.

You guys have me lined up to lynch for the sake of probability, but I personally don't think this is necessary. But I'll produce my case and then leave you to decide how much confidence to put into it. Okay?

[Psyche]

It's clear by the NK patterns that 

Shotgun seems too proactive a player to be alive now and not scum. He would be left alive by his opposing faction...if he's completely off-track on who he thinks that faction is. Moreover, his scumhunting's been vacuous. Nevermind. He didn't take the proactive role I thought he would (Whiskers did). 
—74 makes me wonder if he's buds with Trevor. His 154 makes me doubt that.
His 129 sucks and is an obvious mislynch push. Whiskers' approval of it is disconcerting. His 149 is the lazy way of thinking. 179, too. 
His 230 is too cooperative. He lines up too many lynches.


Trevor's early D1 play seems disingenuous. 54 is bettter. 68, bad. 109 is bad. Ignore's Whisker's case -> Kcdaspot bud?
His 156 works as confirmation. He blatantly identifies both raspberry and kcdaspot as trolls while simultaneously reading this in diametrically opposing ways (troll kcdas is town, troll rasp is scum). 
His 275 is crazily weak.

Chrimi's 73 is why she got NKed. 

Whiskers's 82 makes me want to think "Too townie." She "picks at trivial things", she says. Definitely NOT aligned with Kcdaspot. 193 seems out of character. A maneuver to justify hammering. Her 205 reads as scum covering bases. 

Fitz 176 and prior are all dirt.

Kcdaspot's 186 looks like distancing from Trevor. Or baiting a future connection? I doubt it. 256 is more distancing. Or more baiting. His 186 connection tell was obviously planned.

It makes sense with the NKs to suppose that Whiskers is a Goon. The flavor suggests that the Werewolves — "Saboteurs" — are the ones framing people. They found the mason on D1 and began a project of NKing power roles and therefore didn't have reason to NK Whiskers. The Goons, however, seem to be leading a scumhunting project that specifically excludes probable town lynches. 

I want to remind you of something about BBmolla:

If he does amazingly well and everyone thinks he's town at one point in the game- He's scum.

Believe me, when he's town his a fairly well player- as scum nobody even sees it coming O.o

Just thought I would point that out.

I'd love for this to be corroborated. Oh, well.

My notes, by the way. In case you're anxious.

[Psyche]

Yea...why don't you just shut up and wait until I post my case? Thanks. Scum.

[Psyche]

lol sorry, I never had a chance to say that before. This is the hardest I've ever worked on a case before. Hope it isn't all dirt.

Kcdaspot + Trevor come first, on a whim. Pretty soon. Halfway done.

[Psyche]

Done.

First, Trevor's scumminess and Trevor's connection with Kcdaspot. These are two separate points that I am making, but they are not mutually exclusive.

[spoiler="Trevor" is a Werewolf Name, P1]Trevor is probably the last werewolf. 

Before his relatively weak towntell in post 54, his early posts consist of not only fluff, but of fluff that reads as disingenuous and manufactured. He asks a set of questions that definitely

matter

and make him look good, but don't count as content. His posts remind me of Staeg, my scumbuddy in Open 396. They are pretty effective as a scumstyle, but are ultimately vacuous and scummy.

After 54, however, he progressively changes a null read into a kcdaspot's-scumbud read.
68, 109 and 112, again, are helpful but not townful. One important highlight of these posts his his bandwagon on the raspberry wagon for weak reasons.

Actually, cancel DK Town read. He's bored. So he might be anxiously expecting some Night partying.

I am being misread. :[

Anyway, Whiskers is my only townread. 

And Lucky, you're vote is still on me, it's way after what you guys call 'RVS'. So I'm definitely going to vote you.

Vote Luckyjt

DK, is that your only basis for a read on Lucky?

I feel like Darkling explained himself adequately.

Vote: rasberrylicious

until he does something, because right now, his posts are scum.

He presumably wagons because "his posts are scum" and there's a need for him to do something. Pathetic, and just like scum to justify taking a cookie from the jar with a short-but-definitely-

present

explanatory blurb.

But more importantly, in all this, he blatantly

ignores Whisker's case on Kcdaspot

and instead chooses to vote raspberry. Let's analyze this closer.

Finally, which of you, (4) Raspberrylicious - BBMolla, Trevor, drmyshotgun, Kassadin, actually thinks raspberrylicious is actually scum?

And why?

Cause he's scum and won't put effort into posting unless we run him up.

Whiskers is probably scum too.  Maybe.  Still deciding, give me a bit.

Don't tell anybody, but Whiskers and I are scum partners.

Besides the scumclaim, he hasn't done shit and everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

I don't like the bandwagon on Kcda that much. He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player more than a scum-motivated player.

Whiskers and Darkling are townreads for their Whiskers' analysis and Darkling's read list.

Sorry, I've been extremely busy. Just my thoughts after catching up.

This

, however, is the clincher. Look closely. 
Why is he voting for raspberry?

everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

Why does he think kcdaspot is town?

He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player

Think about this. Let X = a single, constant justification for a belief.
Trevor thinks raspberry is SCUM because of X.
Trevor thinks kcdaspot is TOWN because of X.

Does this make sense? No. Because Trevor scumslipped and failed to manufacture this post properly. He is scumbuds with kcdaspot and wanted raspberry lynched because he was NOT kcdaspot.[/spoiler]

Next, I will consider Kcdaspot's activities regarding Trevor. Alone, neither of these are enough to connect Trevor to Kcdaspot, but together we have a strong case that 1) Kcdaspot has been waging a WIFOM campaign regarding Trevor from his first post with the sole intent of distancing from him and 2) that Trevor, instead, has been actively ignoring him and

indirectly (and thus furtively)

working to keep him from being lynched.

Spoiler: Pt2: Trevor is a name for a Werewolf's Best Friend

Trevor is most probably the last werewolf. 

I believe that kcdaspot initiated a strategic WIFOM campaign on Trevor starting on 186 and 188 and culminating on 256-257. Kcdaspot obviously has the gambitting spirit and it makes the most sense for it to be that way. His goal was to activate within us the Ambiguity Effect — our unwillingness to consider options involving pronounced uncertainty. We cannot allow this tactic to be successful — Trevor is clearly the werewolf.

First, I will catalog kcdaspot's WIFOM campaign.

VOTE: trevor

Who the fuck are you and why do you have a normal name?

Fos: Kass

Trevor vote.

I think trevor may be scummy after reading his iso.

He's STILL voting darkling after voting hime for quote "two odd foses"

And now he says darkling is town. And he doesn't unvote. HMMMM

This is so botched up as to be an obviously strategic move to leave connections with Trevor. He is definitely NOT distancing from Trevor here; he is, in fact, "laying a tell". 

Alone, we would only get WIFOMy about this. 
There are two reasons I don't think we have to — 1. Kcdaspot revealed his plans so obviously in his self-hammer post, and 2. Trevor himself is scummy, and

along with that

his own behavior shows obvious connections to Kcdaspot.

At the

very least

I'm thinking the following quote is a way of kcdaspot backtracking on his Trevor connections by WIFOMing them to oblivion. 

VOTE: kcdaspot

PAHAHAHAHAHA

I GO DOWN OUTTING THE MASON GROUP FUCKERS.

HEY OTHER SCUM FUCKS: PROPOSITION.

MY PARTNER GOES AFTER WHISKERSCONFMASON AND YOU GUISE TAKE CARE OF EITHER TREVOR OR MOLLA.

IF YOU HAVE A BETTER READ ON THE MASONY THAN ME GO AHEAD AND KILL WHO EVER IS LAST MASON GUY THEN. DON'T NEED A NAMED TOWNIE DON'T WE?

LATER CLOWNS

Kcdaspot chose BBMolla because he seemed like a plausible townlynch upon whom a reasonable amount of doubt could be placed on. Trevor, however, was the plan from the beginning. Why Trevor? Because Trevor is Kcdaspot's scumbuddy and Kcdaspot knows that townies naturally avoid considerations of WIFOM. I know from my studies of psychology where this natural avoidance comes from — but it's a common aspect of site meta by itself.


I don't expect this case on kcdaspot alone to get you to agree with me about Trevor. It, combined with my case on Trevor, should be the clincher.

Thank you. It's wordy, but every word counts. I'm no mastin.

[Psyche]

Exhausting. Give me some feedback and I'll take a breather before moving on to the guys we actually need to lynch today.

Tell me...Did I do good? :3

[Psyche]

...And?

[Psyche]

Ya'ok. You know we're in two games together, right?

Now for the other gais.

[Psyche]

Yes yes, I apologize.
But its just that I'm more interested in getting Mafia today.

Yeah, I suppose that's rather hard to do as scum.

[Psyche]

Okay, three things.

First off, your reasoning is hilariously limited in its effectiveness, here. To say I am confirmed mafia now because of your WIFOMy speculation is incorrect, at best.

Second, DK was consistently Town this game. He had no reason to get nervous. If you think the goons' kills were motivated by which players gave them the most trouble, then it'd be a more sound hypothesis to think a more controversial goon would perform a kill aimed to protect himself.

Third, lynch is not a-go. My case posting is not finished, no one has intelligently considered what is already here, and you are only making yourself more obviously nervous scum.

[Psyche]

We should lynch Fitz.

I really don't think so. About every other player but you and me is scummier than Fitz.

[Psyche]

Are you an idiot?

[Psyche]

You have 14 pages of bona fide content and that is all you can do?! Point to some vague mirage of an association tell? Where were you when Trevor and Kcdaspot were failing at distancing?

[Psyche]

We should lynch Fitz.

I really don't think so. About every other player but you and me is scummier than Fitz.

...I disagree

Okay. I'm getting to that. But why do you think so? And what do you think about my Trevor case?

[Psyche]

Oh, and why do you think Whiskers is still alive D3?

[Psyche]

Ooh. He pre-empts me.

It's certainly framed = werewolf. Kcdaspot's role is Saboteur.

[Psyche]

:/

Could I be wrong about shotgun? Eh. I'll present a case all the same.

[Psyche]

There is no question. It is Trevor.

[Psyche]

Besides you.

Fitz or shotgun, probably fitz.

No day ending before I elaborate. (I'm a bit exhausted tonight)

[Psyche]

Follow on from my post 289 thoughts.

Unless people think Kcda was throwing his partner under the bus with his pre-lynch comments I can not see Trevor or Whiskers being a wolf. Kcda also called out BBMolla and he appears to be a confirmed Mason.

So IMO Whiskers and Trevor are only candidates for Mafia. I do not think DK/Psyche is the remaining wolf because of their ~absence during last night's activities. So to recap...(and once again I include myself for completeness)

Likely pool of mafia: Trevor, Whiskers, DK/Psyche, Shotgun, Me

Likely pool of wolves: Shotgun, Me.

Confirmed town: BBMolla. (BTW BB...wth with the lynch Fitz post? Where is that coming from?)

FMPOV that points to Shotgun as the last wolf. Shotgun...are you the last wolf?

As we should not be targetting the wolf today we should be avoiding Shotgun (and me...primarily because I am town but unbiasedly becuase I'm still a wolf option).

So IMO the only options for a lynch today are Trevor, Whiskers, and Psyche. I was leaning town on Trevor and Whiskers before the last three flips occurred so my preference today would be Psyche...but her posting is much better than DK's (aside from the fact her read on me is correct) so I need to look all three of them over again. I meant to have looked Trevor and Whisker's over again by now but RL and gameload has interrupted. I'll try to get the three of them sorted out in my mind in the next day or so.

tl:dr:

Shotgun is likely the wolf and we should be targetting one of these three players as mafia: Trevor, Whiskers, Psyche

Did you read my reasoning? I made the strong argument that Trevor is, in fact, the wolf and kcdaspot did not throw anyone under the bus but mined them with WIFOM just for this post. And it was a bit more detailed and corroborated that your ideas on who the wolf is. :/

[Psyche]

Fitz seeemed town by default — because everyone else was scummy. Let me read more critically.

[Psyche]

I have some basic disagreements with shotgun's case, despite its conclusion, it seems.

I want to say that his attack clears him from having any relationship with whiskers, but it could be orchestrated, pre-emption of my attack for the sake of distancing.

[Psyche]

:/

Or Whiskers was left alive just for this development.

Stop fiddling with WIFOM and bring out Occam's Razor.
Obvious facts are obvious. Who is the sole person who thought Kassadin was scummy? Whiskers.
We know that Mafia got him Night 2, so its obvious that Whiskers is working for Mafia team and tried he did to get rid of the Wolf.

Whiskers is Mafia.
Fitz agrees with this. Whiskers can't be Werewolf you say, why yes.
I don't know what he exactly sees in Trevor to not think him as Werewolf, but he is certainly not going to die today.
Whiskers is the choice.

That's too circumstantial to be useful. You thought Kassadin was a good kill, too, if you don't remember. And fitz thought kassadin was a viable scumtarget. Besides, the thread is public knowledge, and just like scum might use my trevor case in their NK considerations, they can use Whiskers'.

I think Whiskers is scum, but this is poor reasoning. And I think you are scum.

[Psyche]

Done.

First, Trevor's scumminess and Trevor's connection with Kcdaspot. These are two separate points that I am making, but they are not mutually exclusive.

[spoiler="Trevor" is a Werewolf Name, P1]Trevor is probably the last werewolf. 

Before his relatively weak towntell in post 54, his early posts consist of not only fluff, but of fluff that reads as disingenuous and manufactured. He asks a set of questions that definitely

matter

and make him look good, but don't count as content. His posts remind me of Staeg, my scumbuddy in Open 396. They are pretty effective as a scumstyle, but are ultimately vacuous and scummy.

After 54, however, he progressively changes a null read into a kcdaspot's-scumbud read.
68, 109 and 112, again, are helpful but not townful. One important highlight of these posts his his bandwagon on the raspberry wagon for weak reasons.

Actually, cancel DK Town read. He's bored. So he might be anxiously expecting some Night partying.

I am being misread. :[

Anyway, Whiskers is my only townread. 

And Lucky, you're vote is still on me, it's way after what you guys call 'RVS'. So I'm definitely going to vote you.

Vote Luckyjt

DK, is that your only basis for a read on Lucky?

I feel like Darkling explained himself adequately.

Vote: rasberrylicious

until he does something, because right now, his posts are scum.

He presumably wagons because "his posts are scum" and there's a need for him to do something. Pathetic, and just like scum to justify taking a cookie from the jar with a short-but-definitely-

present

explanatory blurb.

But more importantly, in all this, he blatantly

ignores Whisker's case on Kcdaspot

and instead chooses to vote raspberry. Let's analyze this closer.

Finally, which of you, (4) Raspberrylicious - BBMolla, Trevor, drmyshotgun, Kassadin, actually thinks raspberrylicious is actually scum?

And why?

Cause he's scum and won't put effort into posting unless we run him up.

Whiskers is probably scum too.  Maybe.  Still deciding, give me a bit.

Don't tell anybody, but Whiskers and I are scum partners.

Besides the scumclaim, he hasn't done shit and everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

I don't like the bandwagon on Kcda that much. He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player more than a scum-motivated player.

Whiskers and Darkling are townreads for their Whiskers' analysis and Darkling's read list.

Sorry, I've been extremely busy. Just my thoughts after catching up.

This

, however, is the clincher. Look closely. 
Why is he voting for raspberry?

everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

Why does he think kcdaspot is town?

He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player

Think about this. Let X = a single, constant justification for a belief.
Trevor thinks raspberry is SCUM because of X.
Trevor thinks kcdaspot is TOWN because of X.

Does this make sense? No. Because Trevor scumslipped and failed to manufacture this post properly. He is scumbuds with kcdaspot and wanted raspberry lynched because he was NOT kcdaspot.[/spoiler]

Next, I will consider Kcdaspot's activities regarding Trevor. Alone, neither of these are enough to connect Trevor to Kcdaspot, but together we have a strong case that 1) Kcdaspot has been waging a WIFOM campaign regarding Trevor from his first post with the sole intent of distancing from him and 2) that Trevor, instead, has been actively ignoring him and

indirectly (and thus furtively)

working to keep him from being lynched.

Spoiler: Pt2: Trevor is a name for a Werewolf's Best Friend

Trevor is most probably the last werewolf. 

I believe that kcdaspot initiated a strategic WIFOM campaign on Trevor starting on 186 and 188 and culminating on 256-257. Kcdaspot obviously has the gambitting spirit and it makes the most sense for it to be that way. His goal was to activate within us the Ambiguity Effect — our unwillingness to consider options involving pronounced uncertainty. We cannot allow this tactic to be successful — Trevor is clearly the werewolf.

First, I will catalog kcdaspot's WIFOM campaign.

VOTE: trevor

Who the fuck are you and why do you have a normal name?

Fos: Kass

Trevor vote.

I think trevor may be scummy after reading his iso.

He's STILL voting darkling after voting hime for quote "two odd foses"

And now he says darkling is town. And he doesn't unvote. HMMMM

This is so botched up as to be an obviously strategic move to leave connections with Trevor. He is definitely NOT distancing from Trevor here; he is, in fact, "laying a tell". 

Alone, we would only get WIFOMy about this. 
There are two reasons I don't think we have to — 1. Kcdaspot revealed his plans so obviously in his self-hammer post, and 2. Trevor himself is scummy, and

along with that

his own behavior shows obvious connections to Kcdaspot.

At the

very least

I'm thinking the following quote is a way of kcdaspot backtracking on his Trevor connections by WIFOMing them to oblivion. 

VOTE: kcdaspot

PAHAHAHAHAHA

I GO DOWN OUTTING THE MASON GROUP FUCKERS.

HEY OTHER SCUM FUCKS: PROPOSITION.

MY PARTNER GOES AFTER WHISKERSCONFMASON AND YOU GUISE TAKE CARE OF EITHER TREVOR OR MOLLA.

IF YOU HAVE A BETTER READ ON THE MASONY THAN ME GO AHEAD AND KILL WHO EVER IS LAST MASON GUY THEN. DON'T NEED A NAMED TOWNIE DON'T WE?

LATER CLOWNS

Kcdaspot chose BBMolla because he seemed like a plausible townlynch upon whom a reasonable amount of doubt could be placed on. Trevor, however, was the plan from the beginning. Why Trevor? Because Trevor is Kcdaspot's scumbuddy and Kcdaspot knows that townies naturally avoid considerations of WIFOM. I know from my studies of psychology where this natural avoidance comes from — but it's a common aspect of site meta by itself.


I don't expect this case on kcdaspot alone to get you to agree with me about Trevor. It, combined with my case on Trevor, should be the clincher.

Thank you. It's wordy, but every word counts. I'm no mastin.

Here's what I read.

Part 1: Trevor is fluffing and his play reminds me of some other guy in some other game who was scum. He goes for raspberry instead of kdaspot even though raspberry claimed scum. He doesn't mention Kdaspot who happened to be scum.

Part 2: Trevor and Kdaspot were attacking eachother and kdaspot used some wifom. Kdaspot gets bussed and TELLS THE OTHER GROUP TO SHOOT HIS PARTNER OR BBMOLLA. Clearly, after heavily distancing d1, they decide to bus each other. Want to see Trevor's other content or reasoning on why no one else could possibly be a werewolf? Neither did I.

Psyche and Fitz are partners. Whiskers is the werewolf.

This is a hilarious misrep of my posts where you deliberately ignore the most major and significant points the case. Thanks for confirming my read, scum.

Next time, consider directly confronting attacks against you — that might've had a better chance of fooling people.

[Psyche]

I really do need to get to that. Give me a about half an hour to finish up.

[Psyche]

Whiskers, the 'obvtown' of the game who successfully crusaded for a scum's lynch is still standing. Isn't it a wonder? Even Whiskers ought to be flabbergasted, given this post: 

Well duh. We know Kcda is scum. 
I'll die tonight-- that's pretty much given afaict. I'm either strong town or strong scum everypony thinks is town, so there's no reason NOT to kill me. 
Do be sure to ride Kcda's ass until he hangs, won't you? 

Also, 

But what if he's a mason.

:/

You were on this lynch, BBMolla. I also have reason to believe you are scum. This question is not useful, and you don't believe it. Why do you bring up the idea, even, that he could be a mason? If you think he could be a mason, why would you vote for him? Because you like lynching masons, that's why. Who else likes to lynch masons?

Mafia.

There's no reason for scum not to lynch Whiskers! It's right there. So what the hell happened?

Let's explore why through that uncertain field of mafiascum science called Night Kill analysis.

...

Here are the Kills of the Game:
raspberrylicious - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) Forced out(lynched) Day One
Kcdaspot - Saboteur(Werewolf) was Forced Out Day 2.

luckyjt - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) was bought off Night 1.
Chrimi - Supervisor(Town Mason) was framed Night 1.
Kassadin - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) was bought off Night 2. 
Darkling_Perhaps - Supervisor(Town Mason) was framed Night 2.

First to point out which scum team "bought off" townies and which scum team "framed" townies. Kcdaspot is our only necessary clue on that matter — his role is the Saboteur implies that he furtively sabotages things. "Framing" works best in this sense.

The framers are the faction that recognized the PR tell inherent in Chrimi's 73:

Buddying does not mean scum in this setup, just pointing that out.

Obviously preferring a PR night kill over a protown night kill, the motivation behind Trevor and Kcdaspot's night kills are obvious. Through some connection tell I haven't specifically looked for, I suppose that they successfully lined up a second PR night kill.


But the N1 and N2 kills are less obvious in their pattern. The players killed were relatively obscure and unproductive and had a moderate (but not a large) amount of suspicion placed on them. It's clear that "Kill the most protown player" was NOT the heuristic used to select night kills. I hypothesize that it was "kill the most likely werewolf, barring ones lined up for future lynches". This would explain kcdaspot's AND BBM's survival during nights and does definitely consist of a viable heuristic.

This hypothesis has a lot of implications, since it characterizes the strategic direction of the mafia's efforts — both during the Night and during the Day.

Next post, I explore what these are.

[Psyche]

Remember, these are our two mafia NKs
luckyjt - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) was bought off Night 1.
Kassadin - Scientist(Vanilla Townie) was bought off Night 2. 

A lot of cognitive biases guide night kills. This is because scum tend to not spend too much analysis on it since the stakes aren't seen to be as high as they are seen by townies trying to lynch scum. There's less metacognition (monitoring of thoughts) and general heuristics are executed through a prism of unregulated bias. 

If shotgun and whiskers are scum, the second night kill makes sense from a cognitive bias perspective.
Shotgun is subject to the attentional bias and especially the Availability Heuristic in his choices — making them by what is more available in memory, which is biased toward vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples. Kassadin is the one shotgun would pick out of a pool of the bland players of the game to kill. This is suggested in posts 6, 8, 37, 74, 88, 129, 247, 248, 250, 251. About 1/8th of all his posts this game. ALL are positive or ambivalent about the idea of kass-scum.

He's about as implicated in the kass kill as Whiskers, who definitely did have kassadin targetted as scum, as shown in consistent attacks throughout both D1 and 2. 

Lucky never got explicit attention from anyone still living. His death seems random and can have numerous explanations. No connections to anyone. 

But there's more! — the mafia clearly specifically aimed away from players they thought would - planned to - get lynched the following Day. In both Days, Whiskers and Shotgun explicitly collaborated in the pre-emptive lining up of the next day's future lynch. The first was Kcdaspot and the second was BBMolla, something disrupted by his claim.

 I have to admit, anyone might attack Kassadin and only either shotgun or whiskers has to be scum for this to be valid (and at least one of them IS scum). All of this NK analysis is circumstantial, but creates a scum-lean.

I have individual scumtell-based cases on them, however.

[Psyche]

Yeah. Whiskers is dying today. I have much to do to ensure I don't do badly in school tomorrow, but I'll try to get a whiskers case complete by tomorrow morning. We have loads of time...

[Psyche]

Woah. Shotgun voted first. That makes him much more likely to be eager scum.

I'm more willing to vote for shotgun. He lined up future lynches that seemed to mesh perfectly with my idea that mafia used "kill the most likely werewolf, barring ones lined up for future lynches" as an NK choice heuristic.

Trevor's vote is even more corroboration of our read on him...


Agh. I'm still uncertain on whiskers. We should let her live today. I still get more townvibes from fitz, but fitz has less content to his name.

[Psyche]

Changed my mind. Problem, Whiskers?

[Psyche]

Well, if we're assuming that Shotgun is scum with that question, we can just lynch him now and deal with me tomorrow.

I'm sure I can handle myself.

Luckyjt never made any truly substantial attack on DK. Besides, I don't think the scum went for "most threatening to our survival". first off, they would choose better players (like you! if you're town!). Second, no one has really been much of a threat to anyone in this game. Wagons haven't been competitive. The idea that anyone living might've felt particularly nervous about the attacks of presently dead townies seems weak.

[Psyche]

I'm confused as to the point of this discussion except that NK analysis fundamentally sucks. :S

[Psyche]

Sigh. I'll get to it.

[Psyche]

Yeah sorry.

Plan on giving this a go tomorrow. I keep putting this off because I dread having to deal with this situation.

Yeah.

[Psyche]

No. I haven't. But I'll get to it.

[Psyche]

Sigh...Okay. Whiskers case within the next hour or so.

I'm more uncertain than ever that shotgun is scum, but I still think so by virtue of the likelihood that fitz is town.

NK analysis is fine for the werewolves because kcdaspot has been quite transparent this game. But for the mafia, I admit that it doesn't work well at all.

[Psyche]

Okay, screw this. I'm lazy and I have an exam tomorrow and the only person with objection to a Whiskers lynch is Whiskers.

Without much analysis of Whiskers' posts, I lay out this argument for her lynch:

BBMolla and I are confirmed town in my eyes.
Trevor is confirmed werewolf.
Fitz's posts today are superb and provide more reason to keep him alive to endgame than to lynch him.

That leaves two people — shotgun and Whiskers.

Unless someone can convincingly explain either why Trevor is probably town or mafia, or why Fitz is probably

not

town, I have no reason already to not believe, by virtue of the other players in this game, that Whiskers and Shotgun are scum.

[Psyche]

Okay, screw this. I'm lazy and I have an exam tomorrow and the only person with objection to a Whiskers lynch is Whiskers.

Without much analysis of Whiskers' posts, I lay out this argument for her lynch:

BBMolla and I are confirmed town in my eyes.
Trevor is confirmed werewolf.
Fitz's posts today are superb and provide more reason to keep him alive to endgame than to lynch him.

That leaves two people — shotgun and Whiskers.

Unless someone can convincingly explain either why Trevor is probably town or mafia, or why Fitz is probably

not

town, I have no reason already to not believe, by virtue of the other players in this game, that Whiskers and Shotgun are scum.

Since I believe Whiskers is the werewolf, I object to the Whiskers lynch.

Trevor. For you to win, we have to lynch mafia either way.

[Psyche]

Done.

First, Trevor's scumminess and Trevor's connection with Kcdaspot. These are two separate points that I am making, but they are not mutually exclusive.

[spoiler="Trevor" is a Werewolf Name, P1]Trevor is probably the last werewolf. 

Before his relatively weak towntell in post 54, his early posts consist of not only fluff, but of fluff that reads as disingenuous and manufactured. He asks a set of questions that definitely

matter

and make him look good, but don't count as content. His posts remind me of Staeg, my scumbuddy in Open 396. They are pretty effective as a scumstyle, but are ultimately vacuous and scummy.

After 54, however, he progressively changes a null read into a kcdaspot's-scumbud read.
68, 109 and 112, again, are helpful but not townful. One important highlight of these posts his his bandwagon on the raspberry wagon for weak reasons.

Actually, cancel DK Town read. He's bored. So he might be anxiously expecting some Night partying.

I am being misread. :[

Anyway, Whiskers is my only townread. 

And Lucky, you're vote is still on me, it's way after what you guys call 'RVS'. So I'm definitely going to vote you.

Vote Luckyjt

DK, is that your only basis for a read on Lucky?

I feel like Darkling explained himself adequately.

Vote: rasberrylicious

until he does something, because right now, his posts are scum.

He presumably wagons because "his posts are scum" and there's a need for him to do something. Pathetic, and just like scum to justify taking a cookie from the jar with a short-but-definitely-

present

explanatory blurb.

But more importantly, in all this, he blatantly

ignores Whisker's case on Kcdaspot

and instead chooses to vote raspberry. Let's analyze this closer.

Finally, which of you, (4) Raspberrylicious - BBMolla, Trevor, drmyshotgun, Kassadin, actually thinks raspberrylicious is actually scum?

And why?

Cause he's scum and won't put effort into posting unless we run him up.

Whiskers is probably scum too.  Maybe.  Still deciding, give me a bit.

Don't tell anybody, but Whiskers and I are scum partners.

Besides the scumclaim, he hasn't done shit and everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

I don't like the bandwagon on Kcda that much. He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player more than a scum-motivated player.

Whiskers and Darkling are townreads for their Whiskers' analysis and Darkling's read list.

Sorry, I've been extremely busy. Just my thoughts after catching up.

This

, however, is the clincher. Look closely. 
Why is he voting for raspberry?

everything he says sounds like subtle trolling.

Why does he think kcdaspot is town?

He sounds more like a trolling/dgaf player

Think about this. Let X = a single, constant justification for a belief.
Trevor thinks raspberry is SCUM because of X.
Trevor thinks kcdaspot is TOWN because of X.

Does this make sense? No. Because Trevor scumslipped and failed to manufacture this post properly. He is scumbuds with kcdaspot and wanted raspberry lynched because he was NOT kcdaspot.[/spoiler]

Next, I will consider Kcdaspot's activities regarding Trevor. Alone, neither of these are enough to connect Trevor to Kcdaspot, but together we have a strong case that 1) Kcdaspot has been waging a WIFOM campaign regarding Trevor from his first post with the sole intent of distancing from him and 2) that Trevor, instead, has been actively ignoring him and

indirectly (and thus furtively)

working to keep him from being lynched.

Spoiler: Pt2: Trevor is a name for a Werewolf's Best Friend

Trevor is most probably the last werewolf. 

I believe that kcdaspot initiated a strategic WIFOM campaign on Trevor starting on 186 and 188 and culminating on 256-257. Kcdaspot obviously has the gambitting spirit and it makes the most sense for it to be that way. His goal was to activate within us the Ambiguity Effect — our unwillingness to consider options involving pronounced uncertainty. We cannot allow this tactic to be successful — Trevor is clearly the werewolf.

First, I will catalog kcdaspot's WIFOM campaign.

VOTE: trevor

Who the fuck are you and why do you have a normal name?

Fos: Kass

Trevor vote.

I think trevor may be scummy after reading his iso.

He's STILL voting darkling after voting hime for quote "two odd foses"

And now he says darkling is town. And he doesn't unvote. HMMMM

This is so botched up as to be an obviously strategic move to leave connections with Trevor. He is definitely NOT distancing from Trevor here; he is, in fact, "laying a tell". 

Alone, we would only get WIFOMy about this. 
There are two reasons I don't think we have to — 1. Kcdaspot revealed his plans so obviously in his self-hammer post, and 2. Trevor himself is scummy, and

along with that

his own behavior shows obvious connections to Kcdaspot.

At the

very least

I'm thinking the following quote is a way of kcdaspot backtracking on his Trevor connections by WIFOMing them to oblivion. 

VOTE: kcdaspot

PAHAHAHAHAHA

I GO DOWN OUTTING THE MASON GROUP FUCKERS.

HEY OTHER SCUM FUCKS: PROPOSITION.

MY PARTNER GOES AFTER WHISKERSCONFMASON AND YOU GUISE TAKE CARE OF EITHER TREVOR OR MOLLA.

IF YOU HAVE A BETTER READ ON THE MASONY THAN ME GO AHEAD AND KILL WHO EVER IS LAST MASON GUY THEN. DON'T NEED A NAMED TOWNIE DON'T WE?

LATER CLOWNS

Kcdaspot chose BBMolla because he seemed like a plausible townlynch upon whom a reasonable amount of doubt could be placed on. Trevor, however, was the plan from the beginning. Why Trevor? Because Trevor is Kcdaspot's scumbuddy and Kcdaspot knows that townies naturally avoid considerations of WIFOM. I know from my studies of psychology where this natural avoidance comes from — but it's a common aspect of site meta by itself.


I don't expect this case on kcdaspot alone to get you to agree with me about Trevor. It, combined with my case on Trevor, should be the clincher.

Thank you. It's wordy, but every word counts. I'm no mastin.

[Psyche]

I suppose I might be wrong. But I only have to be half-right today.

[Psyche]

Say Whiskers, could you tell us how you would fill that doc?

[Psyche]

Ah. That's certainly something to digest.

[Psyche]

Okay, PoE is not enough to lynch Whiskers. We have to find something definitively scummy to do this with...confidence.

[Psyche]

Ooh. An ultimatum.

Okay, shotty is now essentially confirmed scum.
I'm starting to think Fitz is his bud. Bussing doesn't make sense here.

[Psyche]

Yeah. But I'm willing to trust you.

vote Shotgun

[Psyche]

Whiskers is town. My PoE was skewed because I was trying to fit the data to my conclusions. Fitz is scum trying to protect shotgun by calling him a werewolf. Whiskers wouldn't have withheld a chance to wield her influence on the lynch as scum.

Shotty, on the other hand, is quick to lynch, has been lining up future lynches, and has been parroting others for a lot of the game. I want him dead. We need to compromise in that direction.

[Psyche]

Yeah. But I'm willing to trust you.

vote Shotgun

And

why

? Weren't you trying to lynch me just a minute ago? Trying to find some reason? Or, you know, not, just waiting it out until somepony else finds a reason for you.
And I don't know that he isn't a werewolf.
And I don't know that you're not Mafia.
I don't trust you.
If you're mafia, you'll want to lynch town or werewolf-- that is, whoever isn't your scumpartner. Who is your scumpartner? Trevor? You were trying to put him off limits earlier, by making a case for his werewolf.

I wouldn't have made my case on Trevor if I didn't think it was so obvious that he's kcdaspot's buddy. I suppose you disagree with my conclusions?

If I was mafia, would I single out the werewolf? I wouldn't; instead, I would push for his lynch. So the question, "Does not my case make sense?" has a lot of bearing here.

[Psyche]

Okay, Psyche and Whiskers are CONFIRMED MAIFA PARTNERS.
Look at their opportunistic cornering of me.
Well you won't get an easy lynch out of me. Its just two of you right now, Molla hasn't given us his reads, Trevor has me as Town, Fitz has me as Werewolf.
If one of you guys are Town, then, Town doesn't deserve a win.

Psyche has replaced DeityKabuto who hasn't said much useful things for Town.
Psyche on the other hand has different approach when it comes to Lynch Mafia or Lose situation.
He is active making himself seem like the controller of the game.

Lol, its not just one of them who is scum on my wagon right now, but both.

You're flailing.

It's not opportunistic to change my mind to a more inconvenient target. Trying to make my voice heard in a game is not scummy.

[Psyche]

Okay, Psyche and Whiskers are CONFIRMED MAIFA PARTNERS.
Look at their opportunistic cornering of me.
Well you won't get an easy lynch out of me. Its just two of you right now, Molla hasn't given us his reads, Trevor has me as Town, Fitz has me as Werewolf.
If one of you guys are Town, then, Town doesn't deserve a win.

Look at the rhetoric!

Me and Whiskers are opportunistic scum trying to use get shotty lynched in a situation where it's going to to be obviously hard to get shotty lynched. Okay.

But it's true that town does not have a majority.

[Psyche]

I'm more focused than ever.

Yeah sure your voice being heard is not scummy, but making it to be heard more than any other people in a dire situation for Town is scummy.

Scummy? How?

[Psyche]

You guys were opportunistic in a sense that you were both here when I quipped something about Whiskers being the majority's Mafia, and both rushed to it suddenly producing Bandwagon.
Sure you both were on us pretty much the entire day, but I finally gave you some meat to sink your teeth into.

Yeah. You finally scumslipped and we're scummy for acting on it.
I have to admit, I am looking for opportunities to lynch players who are scum.

[Psyche]

I meant, if you're mafia, and he's mafia, then you'd make a nice case for him being a werewolf. By that time, the town [all players] knew we'd have to lynch Mafia, specifically, so that would be you, scumhunting and catching scum, apparently, and also saving your teammate for a day.

I don't know if that's the case.
The case on Trevor is that he's not very useful? Plus his interaction with Kcdaspot?

Um...no. I certainly did not simply say that Trevor was "not useful".

And it's more like a relationship than an interaction. Interaction implies small isolated, one-sided events.

[Psyche]

And Trevor kind of avoided interactions with Kcdaspot, didn't he?

[Psyche]

You guys were opportunistic in a sense that you were both here when I quipped something about Whiskers being the majority's Mafia, and both rushed to it suddenly producing Bandwagon.
Sure you both were on us pretty much the entire day, but I finally gave you some meat to sink your teeth into.

How about when you voted for me early in the day?

Hahaha. Zinger.

[Psyche]

Ah, I'm not going to chit-chat with scums anymore. They're caught, so be it.

xD

[Psyche]

The Psyche-Whiskers lovefest is hurting my head.

BBMolla....please provide some content. As confirmed town it would be nice to read some thoughts from someone I don't have to second guess or look over my shoulder at.

And Trevor lying low is no surprise. I just wonder if laying low at this stage of the game points to one variiety of alignment vs another.

I'm not going to waste my time writing walls and repeating my reads and reasoning. Today isn't even lylo as long as we avoid the wolf.

"Repeating"

[Psyche]

Sorry thought I posted something. I have Psyche as town and Trevor as scum(don't know of which flavor) so ideally I'd like a Whiskers lynch, but I'm a sucker to AtE unfortunately.

That's where I stand at the moment.

Come on...what about shotgun?

[Psyche]

I thought it was becoming progressively obvious. I suppose I'm tunneling. :/

[Psyche]

Oh, you think Whiskers is scum.

[Psyche]

Oh, you think Whiskers is scum.

He is. And you are too.

OMGUS.

[Psyche]

Yeah. They are.

[Psyche]

I join a mini, the game runs like a snail. I join a large, the thread explodes in activity. Ugh.

[Psyche]

Yeah, I guess you would do that, Trevor.

[Psyche]

I wish we could just lynch Trevor and get on with it...

[Psyche]

No. I just wish things weren't so complicated. This is getting boring.

Trevor, that's not a defense. It's a biased oversimplification.

[Psyche]

That's ridiculous and an unfounded claim. Why would I want to rule you out as a lynch?

[Psyche]

So you want to lynch someone who you think is Werewolf?

Omg. Let me make it clear.

I wish that it was strategically possible to just go ahead and lynch Trevor. Sadly, it is not.

Okayy?

[Psyche]

Finally!

[Psyche]

Yes, you are going down my dear.

I really wonder if you're serious.

[Psyche]

I mean, regardless of the accuracy of my reads, I

am

town.

[Psyche]

Psyche you don't want a Whiskers lynch anymore?

Whiskers seems tentatively full of townie goodness.

[Psyche]

What the fuck. Whiskers is either town or the werewolf.

Huh. Interesting.

Let me soulsearch a bit.

[Psyche]

Pbbbbbt.

[Psyche]

Psyche, you can hammer now, you and Fitz have a 50-50 shot of hammering the wolf right here and winning.

Almost missed that.

Vote

[Psyche]

Psyche, you can hammer now, you and Fitz have a 50-50 shot of hammering the wolf right here and winning.

Almost missed that.

Vote

Explain please

Wit. :/

Okay, it's me and Whiskers left, right? Okay, Trevor, too.

[Psyche]

Not sure what to do.

[Psyche]

??
Whiskers didn't claim Wolf she is Mafia. Psyche is her partner.
Trevor, I'd very much like you to hammer her.

WHY IS THIS GUY ALIVE???

[Psyche]

This is getting annoying and my ability to care is diminishing. Shall I just go ahead and hammer, hoping that either Trevor is mafia or Whiskey's getting bussed?

[Psyche]

Cuz...I'm not a Scum but a valuable asset to Town?
Why is Whiskers alive then?
Why are you alive?

I'm not trying to push a senseless lynch, for starters.

[Psyche]

To me it looks like you are Scum trying not to give up the chance of instant winning today.

I can see how you might think that if you think I and Whiskers are a team. But we both know you don't think that.

That's not going to get me to vote Whiskers.

[Psyche]

OR, alternatively, Psyche isn't scum.
If she were, she'd have hammered.

Sorry, this is wrong, because Psyche did try to hammer me, here:

Psyche, you can hammer now, you and Fitz have a 50-50 shot of hammering the wolf right here and winning.

Almost missed that.

Vote

Am I right?

I was joking lol

[Psyche]

Psyche would gladly hammer Whiskers regardless of her alignment. EXCEPT on an occasion that she is Mafia teammates with Psyche.
Which happened here. That means Whiskers IS Psyche's partner-in-crime and Psyche don't want the lynch to happen.
I think both of them are still looking for the lone Wolf.

Yes, I now see you more as an ally than Obvious Scums like Whiskers and Psyche.

You are an idiot.

[Psyche]

Sigh...

[Psyche]

[Psyche]

Sigh.

[Psyche]

Well, I'm definitely no good at scumhunting. But at least I realized shotgun was scum with his craziness. If I hadn't come in so late, maybe I could've made a difference?

Lurking seems to be an effective scum strategy. Good to know.

Hm...I learned nothing from this.

[Psyche]

Next time, I check the game state before subbing in. ^^
Yes, I learned that.

[Psyche]