TM2012: Scummies 2011.5 - Let the credits roll!

[Slandaar]

As of now!

I have read the game as it went along etc, I know whats what pretty much. Posting some stuff in a bit

[Slandaar]

Staying on the groups real quick...if my townreads are right (about Zar and MoI) that clears 2A in my eyes of scum.

If we run under the assumption that there was only 1 scum in each group,

that clears Reck, making Deas scum, and then his partner being BB or Theam. Either partnership I could see. I need to look back as to how Ajax would fit into an Ajax/Deas/BB or Theam group.

This post was from yesterday (day 4)

Lets use that assumption. Well, guess what?

BB cannot be scum with DV using this logic because they/we were in the same judging group It shows how much thought he has put into his 'scumhunting'

The assumption makes no sense, but we can think Tbone thinks its legit...

Group 1A –

Reck

,

Quilford, T-Bone

,

Captain Ajax

,

MoI

Group 1B –

Hito, Magua,

Zar

,

Theam, Fonz

Group 1C –

KK

,

BBMolla, DeaVail

Group 2A -

MoI, Quilford, T-Bone

,

Zar

Group 2B -

TheAm, hito,

BBmolla

,

Magua

Group 2C –

KK

,

Reck, Deas

Colours himself green; fine whatever...

That's where we're at. 1A Ajax was scum,

so each of 1B and 1C could contain scum.

On Day 2 however, 1 group had to be all town, so that's a little more difficult to discern. The only people to move around between Day 1 and 2 are Reck, Zar, and BB. Reck moved down to C, BB up to B, and Zar to A. I think it's likely that only one scum moved around, meaning the other stayed put.

The only one who didn't move around who's still alive is Deas.

OK, so that means Zar is scum then. If we are still using this ridiculous assumption Zar should be near confscum to Tbone. Why is Tbone still calling DV (insinuating) scum?

Tbone didnt move too - note how he forgets this

It shows how absolutely ridiculous his assumptions are. Absolutely baseless but he waffles on using them to ALWAYS come to the conclusion DV is scum even when he shouldn't.

Why is he saying 1 scum moved 1 stayed? it makes no sense...

I think Deas is a high likely candidate to be scum. On Day 2 Reck and KK essentially gave him deciding power over the group, and Deas claims to have not voted. They claim KK voted me and Reck claims to have voted BB, and BB got the scummy. Now if Deas didn't vote, KK could have lied and voted for BB too, or Deas really did vote for BB and lied about it. One obvious reason to lie about it would be because he and BB are scum. That's one angle. Another angle is that Deas never was in a group with Zar, so they could also be a scum pair. I find Reck/Deas to be the least likeliest pairing, because there is no reason for Deas to lie about voting or intentionally not vote if he and Reck are buddies.

OK, so whats the scum motivation behind not voting?

Exactly there is none here, it was randomed between two people. Lets say DV was scum why would he not vote who he wanted the scummy to go to he would be better off knowing surely? Flip side of the coin, why would he vote and lie? its hardly incriminating to say 'I voted Molla' like it makes no sense to lie as scum there. There are no benefits to it.

Its a null point.

I make the above statement assuming the Mods didn't flip a coin between me and BB, because than it makes that discussion moot.

He even admits his assumptions are ridiculous, so at this point we have had a huge wall of waffleyness and then he adds a little escape clause.

All bets of course are off of course if multiple scum were in a single group, but we have no evidence to suggest it one way or another, so I'm going to run under the assumption that scum were split up. If Theam was lynched Day 1 instead of Ajax, I wonder if Reck, Zar, and BB would still be the ones to exchange groups or if something else would have happened.

Again with the clauses

he clearly knows his assumptions are bad/wrong

He continually uses them to call DV scum though, his plan was to get DV lynched today. He started from yesterday and moved into today with that goal. If he were town, he should have analysed the judging groups fairly and under his assumptions come to the conclusion Zar is the most likely scum. But he didn't he just stuck to the plan and made and even worse assumption as a base to call DV scum

For the record, since it's LyLo, we in Group 2A agreed to give Reck our scummy. We also discussed giving it to Hito but he didn't flip with the one we gave out so I assume Reck did indeed get it. It wasn't the double-vote one either.

Reck what is this btw?

[Slandaar]

OK Town

From here on I am assuming Tbone is scum as it doesn't matter if hes not at this point. Now...

Judging QTs

Group 1A – Reck,

Quilford

, T-Bone,

Captain Ajax

,

MoI

: Gave out Best Newbie (N1 only Cop) to Fonz
Group 1B –

Hito

,

Magua

, Zar,

Theam,

Fonz

: Gave out DOUBLE VOTE Scummie (can’t find proper name ATM) to Reck
Group 1C –

KK

, BBMolla, DeaVail: Gave out Best Replacement (Bodyguard) to Hito

Group 2A -

MoI

,

Quilford

, T-Bone and Zar.
Group 2B -

TheAm

,

hito

, BBmolla, and

Magua

: Gave out Best IC (Jailkeeper) to Quilford
Group 2C –

KK

, Reck, Deas : Gave out Professor Mafia (searcher for ‘Fake Scummies, unknown at time of release) to BBMolla

Scum killed Fonz n1; they knew he had the Best Newbie Award; There is no way that Captain Ajax alone in group 1A had the power to get that scummy to fonz. Therefore at least one of Tbone and Reck is scum from this alone.

Why Fonz? Because it was pretty clear the scums best plan was to get Magua/KK lynched. They couldn't give it to Magna/Quil, Hito? Maybe, but he was very useful to them as he was in the get magua/kk camp. Leaving theam? seems bad hes mislynch fodder. DV? seems bad he was mislynch fodder (proof to come) BB? Well hes scum so that would be quite bad. Reck? Yes maybe that would be good, but if Reck is after Zar, then np right? Zar? Mislynch fodder see:Reck which leaves Tbone who is scum.

The votes were given in advance of any lynching etc, Fonz was only being named as scum after the judging had been done; this is important because he was not in the get magua/kk camp and was at that point looking unlynchable. Once Fonz has got the scummy; They killed him as it was not worth the risk leaving him alive.

Now we know why Fonz died N1 onto N2.

The scum knew Quil had the Best IC award; How?
Well they did a magic trick where they can choose who gets the scummy? Nope; BB was just like 'well you guys we should probably kill Quilford he got a good scummy'

From there; whats the best scummy left? YEP ITS THE BODYGUARD kill him. Finally get Moi as hes obvtown and never being lynched.

Now we have figured out why scum killed who they did and who the scum are.

Also; Reck is town because of Tbones jump onto me he saw the finish line and went for it too soon, Tbone isnt voting DV/Me there without an incling town are voting and if Reck is scum there would be no inclination town are voting DV/Reck

Now, If Tbone is town, which isn't impossible the Reck stuff is wrong of course, but that doesn't actually matter at this point.

You could argue that they lucked the Quilford kill he was obvtown afterall; BUT, their tactics are pretty clear, to kill people with scummies, this is a sensible assumption to make, BB is scum near enough confirmed.

It all makes sense, the most stretchy/debateable is the Fonz kill but even then; we can see they knew he had the scummy and that they had to have done something to give it to him.

Note Tbone;

Guys in 1A, I apologize. When I had that issue last week, I missed the opportunity to vote and did not submit one in time. I did submit a late vote on Zar though. I'll PM the Mod and see if they were lenient enough to count it or not.

He gave it to Zar... Really? He thought Zar was the best bet for town outside the judging group?

No one in my QT kept up with this game in my absence, so I'm flying blind. Here we go anyway.

Also this is a TM scumtell.

Notes
There is no way scum have enough power for Ajax alone to get the scummy to fonz because the town hasn't had a lot of power and then for them to basically dictate where one goes for them to nk? nope too powerful. Tbone is scum due to this. One of Reck/Tbone has to be scum. This should also conftown my slot based on recent postings.
I POE'd BB scum here, it just fits with the Quilford kill too perfectly; I did think Reck was scum previously, but he can't be with Tbone based on how Tbones jumped on the scent since Reck made his case, so its Tbone/BB or Tbone/Zar
Its Tbone/BB because BB makes a ton of sense (see above) and it explains why Tbone wouldnt use his analysis to say Zar is scum (He did not want to annoy Zar and let Zar see his analysis was bad - see previous post)

[Slandaar]

I was going to respond to this wifom junk then I put my thinking cap on...

In what universe as scum do I kill off the recipient of 1A's scummie, then turn around and systematically kill off the other members of that group until WELP POE SAYS RECK?

See Tbone is alive still, POE says its you or him, he coloured himself green.

Want to lynch him now?

[Slandaar]

Also why I thought Reck is scum;
Reck says 'Zar scummiest guy in game'

Day 2
VCA
'Well its magua + KK!'

Its so scumtastic, really, it absolutely looks like VCA ruling your vote to get some easy mislynches in to return to a Zar lynch later. You then came full circle to 'well guess theam is scum' the assumption he was a counterwagon was bad in the first place. (I am pretty sure DV said this, our qt was talking about it)

The scummyness was actually unreal, there are clearly huge benefits as scum to doing this. No idea how Reck was under like no pressure the whole game.

But, there you go.

Obvtowned myself.

It seems that the reasoning is wrong because TownReck just used a bad assumption that theam is a counterwagon.

[Slandaar]

In what universe as scum do I kill off the recipient of 1A's scummie, then turn around and systematically kill off the other members of that group until WELP POE SAYS RECK?

OK Reck

So what were you saying here?

[Slandaar]

Summarize, why are the others so town that I'm scum because of PoE. I'm not reading all that garbage.

That wasn't how I got there.

You are the only living person to have given out the JK scummy to Quil.
Quil dies the night he receives it.
POE says you are scum.

[Slandaar]

He's trying to appease the 3 of you (BB, Reck, Zar) in order to get the one vote he needs (plus his buddy). He isn't trying to convince you that I'm scum. He's trying to convince you that my case on him is catching him for the wrong reasons, and thus I haven't caught him. Or something like that.

ARGH the problem here is that DV/Slandaar have created so much WIFOM that I have no idea who his partner is. The course is clear, Slandaar is the lynch. The problem is when Slandaar flips scum, most likely I have to be killed, leaving BB/Zar/Reck in 3P LyLo.

So I am the one appeasing while you sit there saying 'I dont know I dont know but Slands scum!'

Also; my case showed how you had targetted DV/Me for the lynch today, your analysis today was completely biased to voting DV, where it should if you were using the assumptions you had been using have been voting Zar.

You were not actually scumhunting. It is pretty clear.

[Slandaar]

@Slan:

I see how that's confusing.

In 1114, I was looking at it from how the rest of the game would view the PoE.

Personally, I don't view the PoE that way. So when you tried to use my 1114 to convince me T-Bone was scum, I wasn't hearing it, because I don't buy that.

If you thought that, then why not just say that is why you can't be scum? No faith in the town?

[Slandaar]

It's only PoE when it's convenient to call other players scum. However when BB said he received a fake scummy after receiving the professor mafia scummy that DV's group gave him, and that DV had the ultimate power in that group, it's not convenient to to use PoE there.

lol what?

Nor is it convenient that DV was also in the group that gave the scummy to Hito, and then he died.

Hito died a night AFTER he received the scummy. Big difference. IIRC it was mentioned in thread Hito received it

Nor is it convenient that Reck received the other two scummies and is still alive, DV was not in either group that gave those to Reck.

He had the weaker ones. Which you obviously knew as you gave out the second one which is pretty pointless. And as mentioned, Tunnel on Zar = leave alive. Zar is town.

Slandaar cannot use PoE to incriminate BB, because it incriminates him in pretty much the same manner.

Nope, as explained above.

And you analysis is biased towards me. But since it's you doing it that's okay too? Just like using PoE to incriminate BB is okay because you're the one doing it right?

Thanks for playing.

Biased? Well I know you are scum.

My analysis shows you are scum though. Where is your case on me? Well if I assume this and this then well yes!

Oh right

[Slandaar]

I explained everything in my lovely wall posts

Please read them BB

[Slandaar]

Slandaar am I out right lying about the fake scummie? If so why did I make it up?

apart from this
You were given a fake scummie

You told everyone the truth that you received a fake scummie

How does this make you town?

Why cant you be scum who told the truth?

[Slandaar]

Hrmmmm

I see your point. I thought it was the scummie 2C gave out. But its not, its some random scum one.

There is no way scum knew who received Prof Mafia though.

This actually doesn't make sense.

Its pretty clear scum wouldn't give someone a scummy by being deciding vote then give fake scummy though

Makes them look terrible so scum just would never do it.

Yeah WIFOM etc, but its true. As you know Tbone.

This is why I took a normal game role pm. I am not into all these fancy mechanics. This will actually give me headaches.