TM2012: White Flag Mafia (Game Over)

[Regfan]

I actually agree with Amrun; I think everyone stating why they took the game will provide at least some beneficial information. I took the white flag slot because my team consider me the stronger scumhunter inside us and because I really prefer games with minimal power roles involved in them.

I have relatively strong town reads on Zach and Singer at the moment and a weaker ones on Bub and Captain. I don't find Matias plan as scummy, I think he'd do it regardless of his alignment. I do find his 'the question of the day is if you made it up or not, if you did you're scum' rant as scummy though, especially with it followed by 'leaving it for now'. Slaxx has told me he can read Matias like a book though so I'll wait for his thoughts.

Johhog

, I remember Isa making a comment somewhere that he wanted to be in white flag and his team mates didn't, so may I ask why you're here?

Llarmable

, I disagree with almost all of your reasoning behind 'townpoints' handed out. Not completely thinking through a post before posting it is more likely to be player-related than alignment related and inclusion of words like 'heck' aren't town-tells in the slightest. I don't remember you ever handing out townpoints for things so meaningless, do you by any chance have a link to a game where you've done-so as town?

Vote: Johhog

[Regfan]

I think relaying information from the QT is fine in doses. The only real thought on the playerlist that Slaxx/my team-mates stated pre-game was that he thought you'd be more likely to rejoin this setup as scum rather than town considering how last year went down. Also that Zach would take a town slot and we agreed that most of the playerlist would have joined this setup regardless of alignment.

Singer, I really don't think that the RVS 'I had a plan' thing from Matias is alignment related, you're wasting time going over and over it again.

[Regfan]

Amrun, can you explain the Captain scum read for me please because I'm not getting it.

That's weird, because when we voted internally White Flag was on the bottom of both his and mine lists. To avoid flipping a coin though I volunteered, I decided that MetaMafia was too hard for me as I'm recently back to this site.

I vividly remember him stating that he liked the setup inside the live draft chat room (He was user 100). I tried going back to check but the spreadsheet is closed.

[Regfan]

Johhog

, if you thought that Backroom was too hard for you why was it your first choice? Also do you have any strong reads for this game yet?

Ben

, can you explain the Amrun, Johhog, CES and Socio town reads for me?

Kuribo says, "The votes are all over the place."

That's it so far, team-wise.

By the way. Regfan is town.

My team and I agree.

Amrun, can you explain to me what I'm missing here? Also I sort of see what you're saying in regards to Captain. I just don't agree with it.

[Regfan]

Slaxx has a strong town read on DH. He's pretty positive that Scum-DH wouldn't post #114 and I agree with him there. I also found DHs comments about his team QT discussion to be a minor town-tell. The only thing we disagree with at the moment is our read on Amrun.

Benmage

- CES didn't say he thought Johhog was town so I don't see how you get any of those 2 reads.

[Regfan]

Benmage,

no he didn't. CES's comment was solely that he was probably telling the truth about why he joined this game. Not about if he's scum/town.

[Regfan]

I don't think they were meaningless.
Scumposts tend to be crafted carefully and less likely to require additional info than thoughtdumpy town posts.

I strongly disagree. I comb over and recheck my posts 2-3 times as town and as scum. I know a few other people that do the same. I also know a lot of people that just post whatever they're thinking regardless of their alignment without rechecking it.

While we're talking though I wanted to know two things;

1) Who exactly on your team has CES as town and what was their reasoning behind it?
2) Why did you bring up Amrun buddying you when Benmage is doing it to a greater extent?

Right now my reads are essentially;

[Town]

- Matias -- Zach -- Benmage - Singer ---- Bub ----- Captain [TSQ, Socio, CES] Llarmable - Amrun ----- Johhog ---------

[Scum]

[Regfan]

Isa claims that he complained multiple times about the White Flag setup in the chat. Why would you lie Regfan?

My memory of it was that White Flag was given to your team when you didn't vote on having it, Isa said that he liked White Flag but that his team-mates hated it.

I was hoping that leaving this thread breathe for a good 24 hours or so would mean that I could come back and read through a good 5-6 pages of content to scumhunt based of but this thread seems dead at the moment and there's no reason for it to be. We all got PMs telling us that the day started and considering TSQ is posting elsewhere on the site I can only assume that he's recieved the PM and knows the games started so his abscene and lack of posts is intentional or strategic and I think it's slightly more likely to come from scum though I'm willing to wait to hear his reasoning for avoiding the thread upon entrance.

Also it's time this thread actually started having some legitimate reasoning behind reads because "I think X is town", "Y thinks Z is scum" means nothing alone. In this setup we essentially have 5 lynches to lynch 2 scum inside of. That means that we lynch 5/13 of the playerlist. If we can agree on 8 players that are town and that we won't lynch at any point then we win even if one of them is wrong so people stating and explaining town reads for others to point out flaws on or agree with is key. And sure, this is likely to let mafia know who are vital night kills but the truth of the matter is that if scum can read and I'm assuming at least 1 out of the 12 people that are scum can then players that we all agree upon being town are likely to bite the bullet anyway.

Matias - Strongtown

Slaxx and I both strongly agree that Matias is town and Nicos is coming around to that thought-process at the moment too. His reaction to the votes on him alongside his 'explanations' of his actions both read as strong town-tells and aren't things that I particularly see him doing as scum. I also found his 'singer isn't picking scum' comment to be townie, it'd essentially limit his mslynch pool as scum which isn't something he'd be aiming to do that early in the game. Furthermore we really liked his little mentions of his team qt discussion, specifically their thoughts on Bub.

Singer - Strongtown

Slaxx and I also both agree on Singer being town, no comment on her from anyone else in our team though. We find her push towards Matias at the start to feel very genuine although wrong. I'm very interested in her relaying Hitos thoughts of his this game into the thread though.

Benmage - Strongtown

I've been fooled by him before but I find his discussion about why he'd pick a town role to be genuine. I also find the fact that his town/scum lists has a sheer amount of town reads to be a town-tell, again don't see scum putting themselves in a corner or having to put themselves in a position where they're forced to change their reads so early on. The only slight issue we have with him is that he dropped his scum read/FoS on Matias the second he found out he was DH.

Bub - Mediumtown

We really like his early attempt to jump right into scumhunting and his actions have read as quite genuine. We also like the small snippets we see from their QT relayed into the thread. Slaxx says that Bub is able to have a decently strong early game as scum but that he crumbles and is very easy to strengthen/confirm a read on in the middle to late game so we're happy enough to stick him in town and reasses him later.

Zachrules - Nulltown

I had a strongish town read on Zach earlier however Slaxx actually disagrees with it and finds a few of his posts to be 'forced', specifically his comment about paranoia and re-looking through his ISO he hasn't done as much scumhunting as I earlier thought. The only thing that's preventing me from moving him to the scum area is that I was pretty confident coming into the game that Zach would be taking a town slot.

All the rest of my reads and thoughts will have to come later when I have more time and can get on MSN with Slaxx again.

PEdit: TSQ, why not post earlier to state that you're likely to be busy for a day or two?

[Regfan]

Got enough time to finish these up. Right now overall I'd be happy lynching either Johhog/Amrun though I want to get a solid read on CES/Socio/Shea soon.

Captain - Mediumtown

I can see why people FoS him - his post seem like somewhat of a pre-emptive attack at the people who suspect him however I get the feeling that he generally believes he's caught scum in Matias and have seen a lot of people play in a similar fashion to him in the past as town. It'd probably be worthwhile to do a meta-check up on him and I'll likely do it in the next few days or so but I'd like it if someone else did it as well.

CES - Null

Blind spot. Reading through his ISO I really don't lean either way and we haven't mentioned him once in our QT or discussions at all. I can see what Llarmable is saying about him but really don't find it to be a scum-tell or a strong one.

Llarmable - Nullscum

Slaxx thinks/or at least thought earlier that he was scum, his reasoning for giving out 'townpoints' was something that we both really didn't like about Llarmable and felt as forced (On a side note Slaxx thinks that if Llarmable is scum that he gave town points to one of his partners in that for sure, I don't really agree but he wants it known). We also dislike the fashion in which he's stated things from his QT, they don't read as genuine recounts of it and the 'I'll go into it if I'm run up" rather than just outright stating it is something I don't understand. Though I do like how he dropped his Captain scum read and his push on CES is a lot better than nearly any of the other pushes at the moment.

Amrun - Mediumscum

This is probably the most difficult read for me in the whole room, I have trouble reading her in general. I either read her as obvtown or scum, there's no real middle ground. I can follow a lot of the logic she uses in her posts this game however it reads as if she's attempting to fence-sit or leave herself an opening whenever possible. For instance her argument of TSQ wouldn't put himself in this position as scum is something that

should

lead towards her believing he's town if she believes the theory but she instead states him as a null-read. I also didn't like her 'rage' section in #160, it reads as somewhat forced.

Johhog - Mediumscum

I think he's scum and am pretty certain that I'm remembering how the chat in the draft went down and Isa saying he liked White Flag. His posts aside from team based stuff have also been very lacking, specifically his questions have seemed very pointless and read more as an attempt to seem contributing and active and his list of reads having both Matias/Haddock in the scum section reads as leaving an opening to jump on either of them (Both of them were leading suspects then.)

[Regfan]

Did anyone notice the size of my wagon? It makes me more sure I've caught scum.

I've seen this argument used a dozen times before and it's nearly never right. I'd like your reads and thoughts on other players than Matias though because right now you're tunneling on him and I'm pretty positive he's town.

Okay, so you think I'm faking rage about a game that happened a year ago and that it makes me scum? I know you're bad at reading me, Regfan, but come the fuck on. lol. And I never said that TSQ was town for his lurking - I said that I think it is a null tell. How a null tell should lead me to think he is town I do not know. My team and I agree on this. I'm not going to restate our exact reasoning, but it's close to what I stated here.

Also, is your problem with Johhoq that he suspected two people going at each other and is therefore playing both sides of the field, or something else?

I really don't think what you're doing right now is pro-town, but you're town, so I'll just let you do whatever you want to do.

I don't think the rage makes you scum alone no, but I don't find it genuine at all. Also you stated that you don't think that TSQ would do X as scum. TSQ was doing X, therefore you should think that he's not scum by that logic and therefore town however you stated a null-read on him, that doesn't mesh.

And yes, I think Johhog is/was leaving himself open to options and playing the field.

Also, how do you think that this is anti-town? Sharing of all information including reasoning behind reads is what's going to win this game.

[Regfan]

I know you're bad at reading me

, Regfan, but come the fuck on. lol

I just realized all the issues that I've had reading you ever has been based around games where I wasn't actually

in

the game but rather following on alongside (Winvitation + at least 10 or so others) but in the select 4-5 games I've played with you I don't think I've read you wrong, so where did you get the bolded from?

No, I said he wouldn't use it as a scum tactic. (I don't remember my exact wording, but that is what I meant.) I very specifically said several times that it isn't relevant to his alignment in my opinion.

Do you really think early day 1 townreads have to make sense together as a scumteam?

If he wouldn't use it as a scum tactic yet we know that he hasn't posted wouldn't that make him town? I really am not following your line of logic ending with it being a null-tell. Also can you rephrase your last line above because I don't understand it.

If you have time for that can you read my iso besides Matias' and comment? I even asked him his reason for voting CES and he didn't explain.

I'll re-look at it tomorrow when I wake up but be warned, even if you're right I don't think it'll change my mind. We have a strong meta town read on him.

[Regfan]

He explained nothing. If you have the time try and read our ISO's quickly side by side.

Okay. Read through them. He did explain his reasoning for voting CES, that being that he thought CES's vote on Llarmable was an attempt to 'fit in' by scum. His reasoning for voting you is touched on in #58 where he states that he doesn't believe that you can have your stance if you've read all of his posts. To explain in more detail his #28 wasn't about getting reads from someone else on you so he could jump on but rather he noted a contradiction in Zachs logic and was questioning him about it; the contradiction being that Zach stated that he found 'avoiding bandwagons' which is what you do scummy but didn't have a scum read on you.

Long story short the entire reasoning you have behind suspecting Matias is based of a mis-understanding of his posts.

I am specifically remembering the blowup from That One Game. You don't understand me as a person and my motivations when I post, so you clearly can't read me well. You can't have one without the other. You're not the only one. Just like you still do not understand what I'm saying about TSQ. I'm saying specifically that I think he would do this as either alignment as a tactic, and that it's just a thing that happened and not a strategic move. That has nothing to do with him being town or scum.

I don't think you need to understand someone as a person to be able to read them in this game, if you needed to be able to understand a person to read them then reading a new-ish player or someone you haven't played with before would be near impossible but that's not true. I still think your TSQ thoughts make no sense and you're making less and less sense about it in our back and forths so contuining arguing about it won't get us anywhere.

What I was trying to say in that last sentence you asked me about was this: Do you think scumreads in early game have to make sense as a scumteam*

No, I don't think scum reads early game have to make sense as a scum-team. Though I am noting partnerships that are unlikely in the QT for later. This doesn't answer my earlier question though; How does everyone stating and fully explaining their reads hurt the town?

[Regfan]

Oh and Socio, we want all your teams reads on this game please and thank you.

[Regfan]

I asked about the scumteam thing because it seemed to me that you were criticizing Johhoq for suspecting both Matias and Haddock and I couldn't tell why that was an issue for you.

And my issue with explaining town reads in such detail - EXCEPT when it is vital in order to prevent that town member from being lynched - is long standing. A) It gives a map to scum for the NK. You addressed this earlier so I thought this was self-evident. Apologies. But there is a B) it allows scum to modify their behavior to engender town reads from the players they think that it is most strategically useful to engender town reads in. For example, if I said Player X is scummy because he's too passive, and Player Y is townish because she is so aggressive, Player X can try to act more aggressive to fit into my town reads.

I find his suspicion of both of them an issue because he states no reasoning behind either read whatsoever and keeps his vote on a target that wasn't getting any heat from anyone else at all. It reads as attempting to set himself up to jump on either of them later on during the day.

Also sure, scum can find out what you treat as a town-tell but most players should already know what is and isn't treated as a town-tell before it's blatantly stated so. The hard part isn't working out what the town-tell is, the hard part is faking it genuinely and that's something that explaining reads won't stop.

Amrun is making plenty of sense, so try again?

I don't agree at all.

[Regfan]

Okay Bub, I've broke your entire thing down into sections to make it a lot easier to read and also because the massive amounts of quotes you had were hard to read. Before this turns into a you vs captain quote wall back and forth and kills the thread as well as wastes a lot of time I'd rather go through it and try and explain to you why I'm pretty sure you're wrong on him. A summarization of the reasoning is that Captain initially misunderstood one of Matias's posts or intentions and I believe earlier you stated that you thought that was possible too. Almost every single of his posts are based of or around this misunderstand and I find his actions or at least his case and belief of Matias being scum as genuine. I haven't looked into the CES/Captain linkages but I will later.

1. (About Post 43): Haddock seems to jump at a shadow really. Matias wasn't even making a point about Haddock so much as zach. This looks like scum jumpiness, but it could be a misunderstanding as town. It's still scummy, though. One other note, this is the first vote on Matias. Haddock isn't going with the flow, he's essentially starting the wagon on Matias.

2. (About Post 167): Here, Haddock misunderstands Matias' point again. Zach said that early bandwagoning is townie. Matias asked zach what zach's thoughts were on Haddock, because Haddock was bandwagoning, too. Zach said it was too early, Matias didn't think so. There is no indication there that Matias was targeting Haddock, but Haddock still interpreted it as a threat. He also points to other people bandwagoning early.

3. (About Post 167): Anyway, this post again completely misunderstands both Matias and Amrun's points. Again, he thinks that Matias' posting was a veiled threat, while it clearly wasn't. He then light OMGUS' Amrun by saying that her post is bad. He also said that Matias hopped on to him, and that was part of Matias' initial "threat", which is silly.

4. He says that the "veiled threat" is scummy, and then gives as evidence the fact that Matias voted for him later. Clearly Matias' vote was in response to my (really Amrun's) point that Haddock was perceiving evils that weren't there. Its circular logic and hard to explain, so let me put it in easy to read format:

Zachrules: I think early bandwagoning is townie.
Matias: What do you think of Haddock; he bandwagoned early.
Zachrules: Meh, too early to be anything.
Matias: He was the third vote, that doesn't seem too early.
Haddock: OMG! He's trying to attack me, [votes Matias]
Amrun: Wow, that was scummy Haddock.
Me: Amrun's right.
Matias: Yeah
Haddock: See, Matias wants me dead!

1. I see how this one can be read as a scum-tell however I'm of the believe that he completely misunderstood Matias's post and I think the genuiness behind how he believes in this in his other posts also points towards it just being a misunderstanding. Also "not going with the flow" or starting another wagon isn't a scum-tell.

2. This is explained in the others.

3. I find this section to be a town-tell, his calling of Amruns post as 'terrible' or 'bad' was merely a defense mechanism that comes from town when they're wagoned often. As for the rest of this, I see it this way; He found Matias's questioning of Zach about him as an attempt to subtly FoS him (It's not the case but it's what I garner he thought), he then saw a wagon form on him with Matias following up and voting him. This strengthens his belief that Matias was setting him up.

4. Okay, you have this whole thing wrong. Zach said avoiding a wagon is scummy, Matias asks Zach what he thought of Captain for avoiding the wagon. Zach says too early. Matias says he doesn't think it's too early. Haddock thinks that Matias was subtly FoSing him. Amrun finds his post to be a pre-emptive attack on his supects, votes him, you and Matias follow. Haddock believes that he's right about Matias due to it.

1. (About Post 219): Dismisses a case on Johhog. Individually, I do have a scumread on Johhog, so this could show more buddying, but IMHO the CES/Haddock link is much stronger. Also, note how self centered he is, asking other players for reads on himself. Scum want to know where they stand with the town.

2. (About Post 219): Again, pushes the idea that Matias sowed some sort of seeds of suspicion on Haddock, when that clearly wasn't the case.

3. (About Post 219): "I'm right because you haven't said I'm wrong yet". Also in this post: a complete misunderstanding what what OMGUS is.

4. (About Post 219): This is terrible logic. If the size of a bandwagon indicated towniness, then the town could never lynch anybody. Its just terrible and reeks of a scum defense.

5. (About Post 229): He makes another weak point against Matias here. It seems like this is Haddock singular focus. Later in this post he makes some other reads but they're pretty much pushed to the side and not elaborated on at all.

6: (About Post 229): Not expounded upon much at all, and we wouldn't have even gotten them if Regfan didn't ask. Notice how his main scum reads are on people who made cases against him (me and Amrun). Also note his town read on CES, which is questionable considering the very nature of CES' play. It seems weird that you could get a solid read like that on CES. Also a questionable town read on Johhog. Again, possibly evidence for a CES/Johhog/Haddock scumteam, but the link between Johhog and Haddock is much weaker.

1. Don't disagree that he's self-centered, don't think it's a strong scum-tell though and can see why he'd ask it; Person voting you but not mentioning you is odd.

2. This is explained earlier.

3. Eh. I find this probably your best point out of all of them and even then I don't think it's a big scum-tell. Just an oddly phrased comment.

4. You have no idea how many times I've seen this logic presented by townies, even experienced players. It's the thought process of "I'm town, I'm getting run up so the people voting me are probably mafia, mafia are trying to vote me because I'm a threat so I must be right about my scum reads", the thought process is wrong. But it doesn't change the fact that it's a very common one from a town player.

5. He states a large amount of confidence on Matias being scum, thus his focus on him. You similarly have focused on Haddock as much. Tunneling or singular focus like that isn't a scum-tell.

6. This relates to 4. he believes that he's being pushed on by scum.

[Regfan]

Oh and Slaxx and I just agreed that Bub is pretty much definite town.

[Regfan]

1.

That didn't clear up my confusion of the reason he gave for voting CES.

2.

His post about explaining things was in the context of my reasons for voting him, not his reason for voting me and nothing he's posted has contradicted what I've said.

3.

This has been discussed so I will just say this, has his analysis this game came up with any reason for voting anyone? His case on CES was made by Bub.

GOD. You really aren't reading. I'll go over this one more time and slowly, if you don't understanding it still get your team-mates to explain it to you.

1. His reasoning for voting CES was that he voted Llarmable thinking that scum would bandwagon on Lllarmable given what happened last year. CES placed the 3rd 'bandwagon'v ote on Llarmable therefore he thought CES was mafia.

2. His 'question' to Zach had NOTHING to do with a read on you from himself but rather a read on Zach. Zach stated that avoiding a bandwagon = a scum-tell. Your RVS vote on me and not joining the Llarmable lynch = avoiding a bandwagon, yes? Zach said that he didn't have a scum-read on you. Notice the contradiction there from Zach? That's what Matias meant when he said 'it's not too early'. His entire scum read on you stems from the fact that he thinks you're not reading his posts correctly and are jumping at things, which is correct but I don't think is a scum-tell in this case.

[Regfan]

The whole Bub/Haddock thing is really hurting my head. I feel like they're both severely misguided town for pushing people who are also town. Another self-reminder to look at Haddock's wagon since I haven't done that yet.

Agree completely. As for why I wanted Hitos reads; simply because I value his opinion more than most other players in this competition.

I have something else I want to say about it that makes me possibly doubt my own conclusion, but my team and I are checking if I'm allowed to say it.

I know exactly what you're talking about.

[Regfan]

Also let me know what you think of Benmage, he's not being mentioned much, but he's bothering me a lot.

I dislike his drop in activity but that seems to be something that's happening around the board for him so is null, I also still want him to explain his 180 flip on Matias when he found out he was DH though I'm assuming it's some sort of meta-realization. Other than that I think he's town and have a reasonably strong read on him though truth be told a lot of it drops down to 'gut' which I normally try to avoid but can't in this case. Also I find his talk about taking a town role to be genuine.

2. He said avoiding a bandwagon was likely to extend rvs, not that it was a scumtell, so that's not a contradiction. The rest is only true if he's town and there's scum motivation for saying it. Has his "analysis" this game came up with any reason for voting anyone?

Okay while it might not be a blatant contradiction it's still very easy to follow the thought process behind why Matias asked Zach that question and 'the rest is true if he's town only' means that it's entirely plausible that his actions can come from a town point of view meaning that your 'strong scum read' on him is unjustified and probably wrong. As for his analysis coming up with reasoning time will tell.

I really don't like the TSQ wagon. It's just soooooo easy to get on it. All you have to do is say "lol, shea hasn't posted anything yet, must be scumz". I especially don't like zach and CES making their votes useless by putting them on somebody who hasn't posted yet. Does that make TSQ town? No. But let me put it this way:

TSQ IS NOT GETTING LYNCHED TODAY

I will be fucking pissed off if we lynch a lurker on D-1. Here's what we do, we lynch scum today, then TSQ gets the night to read back up on this game. If he doesn't post anything worthwhile, then we can start lynching him. But as for right now, a lynch on TSQ is stupid and easy and anti-town.

If TSQ was super-busy and hadn't posted anywhere on the site at all then his absence would be acceptable and null however the fact that he's posted elsewhere on the site and apparently has spent some time in Scumchat shows that while he may be busy he still has time for the game but hasn't actually spent any on it, that's not null, it's scummy.

[Regfan]

Llarmanle, Amrun isn't making up that thing about TSQ. I noticed something the same thing she did too.

I can't work out your Johhog-thing but I did go and do a meta-check through all a bunch of his games. Didn't read them in detail and only came across one scum game of his but his play here and the 'changing votes without explanation' is something he seems to tend to do as town which is mostly what I wanted to look to see if it was the case or not. I did come across this and this post of his here he states he much strongly prefers town roles, though he was scum in that game. Looked a little further and found him saying essentially the same thing in this game so I'm nowhere near as comfortable lynching him anymore.

Amrun, why have you barely talked about me since your 19th post out of 63? And why haven't you called anyone scum since then? VOTE: Amrun

This was something I noticed and have been waiting for a response from my team-mates for a while but they all seem to have gone AWOL.

Unvote, Vote: Amrun

[Regfan]

ALSO, if you had not noticed, I have called TSQ scummy. I have lots of townreads, and several other reads that are leaning scummy in a more slight way, but no one jumps out at me as much as Haddock. I have been observing Haddock and seen nothing to dissuade me; the topic of his conversation has NEVER ONCE CHANGED, until about a post ago. He is STILL talking about Matias and the thing that happened way back then that I am still voting him for. And note - who does he vote for, but someone else that he perceives to be threatening him. Yeah, my vote is in the right place.

Lets say Captain is attacking someone that is 'threatening him' again. His reasoning this time unlike against Matias is completely sound. I don't find anything in your ISO that shows any hint of suspicion towards anyone other than TSQ and Captain, the TSQ suspicion is universal right now is based around some outside factors so I wouldn't consider that a read brought about by scumhunting. That means that the only thing your ISO shows in terms of 'scum' 'hunting' is your FoS on Captain which you haven't expanded on any further until now. That's a very little amount of scum reads for the amount of posts that you have and I find that scum find it a lot more difficult to fake reasoning behind scum-reads thus the absence of them is incredibly scummy.

[Regfan]

Matias, what's the last 'reads' that your team left behind in your QT?

[Regfan]

That wasn't meant as an insult, Johhoq. I was in the exact same position last year, and still somewhat this year. You and Haddock are just less experienced than the rest of this playerlist. Weakestt becomes quite relative when the overall level is high.

Also Amrun; Here you admit that Haddock is a 'weaker' player than a lot of the other playerlist, so why is you parking your vote on a weak player and doing little else in terms of pushing or stating scum reads something that shouldn't be considered a scum-tell?

[Regfan]

It's like they ignore context all by themselves. I've been sharing most of what my team thinks, and I clearly have good reasons for not sharing it all,

namely not being modkilled

. What's your excuse?

This really isn't true. You can state a lot more about what's going on in your QT as long as you paraphrase it.

[Regfan]

I don't really care if anything I do may or may not be perceived as a scumtell by some. I'm working in my own way and I'm fine with that. This game isn't a normal game and I'm not playing it like one. I'm using my QT and I may or may not share all information out of it as I see pertinent. I don't really care how that looks because - shocker - I'm not scum. I've done several things already that would be very questionable for scum to do, but I'm not going to bother pointing them out as I think they should speak for themselves.

Not caring if some of your actions can be perceived as a scum-tell is one thing but saying that you're more certain that your scum read on Captain is correct because of his push is another thing. It's very clear that his reasoning has a lot of ground, so why is him pushing on you for something that is genuinely scummy a scum-tell on his behalf? I really don't follow that line of logic at all and just reads as an attempt to justify maintaining your vote on him doing little else.

Also if there's some actions of yours that are 'very questionable for scum to do' I'd rather you point them out for me because I don't see them.

[Regfan]

Right now, I'm really not feeling the Amrun wagon. It seems mainly based on an off-hand comment she made that doesn't really mean anything. I'd much prefer a Haddock or Johhog lynch.

I don't even know where you're getting that it's from 'an off-hand comment', it has nothing to do with any specific comment but rather a lack of stated scum reads given the amount of posts she has. Also meta-states that Johhog wouldn't take a scum role and I still think you're wrong about Haddock.

[Regfan]

There are 13 players in this game, of which three are scum. The chance of TSQ being scum is completely random, since we have 0 reads on him at all. Do you consider a 23% chance to be reasonable?

This IS a good point.

I don't agree, the fact that he's active elsewhere but is lurking here increases the chances he's mafia and doesn't mean we have 0 reads on him.

Yes, and most of them are about that comment she made. Here's the problem I have with the Amrun wagon. Amrun has been fairly scummy all game long. Not nearly as scummy as Johhog or Haddock IMO, but still on the scum side of the spectrum. She was like the third or fourth suspect for a lot of people, but she sort of flew under the radar a little bit. Then, all of a sudden, she makes what I find to be a legitimate comment about not wanting to reveal some info from her QT. There are several legit reasons to do this, but all of a sudden, people are jumping on that as if its scummy in some way.

It's not that Amrun is scummy, its just that the wagon is even scummier. Within a day Amrun went from one vote to four. And yes, some of that is based off "a lack of stated scum reads", but she had "a lac of stated scum reads" before that. I really don't like how this wagon ballooned out of nowhere.

No, they're not about the comment she made at all. The only person that used that comment as part of their reasoning was Socio and he didn't even vote her for it. The whole bandwagon or votes on her are for her not-scumhunting given the massive amount of posts she has alongside with her not mentioning her primary or well only suspect at all since her vote on him at day start. That's the reasoning that Haddock presented.

[Regfan]

What is there to answer? Those are stupid side snipes that mean nothing.

The 'snipes' don't mean nothing and had he not asked you 'who' you were referring to when you said 5 or so other players have done the same thing as you regarding being very active but not stating scum reads I would have asked it. I do want it answered.

I do think that ces making a comment like "shea lurks as scum." is something to look at because frankly, I think it's incredibly untrue, so I don't understand what basis he would have for such a claim unless he was inventing a case out of whole cloth to push on me.

Okay, I get it he stated that you lurk as scum and you don't think you do. That means very little to me, you don't have to post an entire reads list from town-> scum (Though I do think everyone doing so is actually optimal play but that's something for MD not here) but I do want to see a fuckload more content and reads from you.

Also I've narrowed down the pool of people I think are possibly scum to [Amrun, TSQ, Zach, Socio, Llarmable].

[Regfan]

I didn't really consider "very active" as part of the bargain. But still, then, we'll throw out TSQ, and even Sociopath, who is not "very" active. Johhoq came to mind - one scum read, Ben, no reasoning at all that I remember, which shows how good it was. singer - only TSQ, and literally only for lurking, while she has not been so active herself. Matias keeps withdrawing his scumreads and I've no real notion of who he actually thinks is scum right now. Captain Haddock himself as literally the exact same amount of stated suspicions as I do - and until he "suspected" me, he had one less.

Johhogs not active, nor is Benmage. While Haddock only stated suspicion of Matias before you being 'one' person, he constantly re-stated and explained his read which isn't something you did. Matias I don't remember exactly about but he's also been lesser active, as has Singer.

How can you possibly narrow down to just 5 possible subjects in 20 pages? You either are the most fantastic scum hunter that ever lived, or you are willfully blinding yourself to other possibilities. I understand the sentiment of, say "I am willing to lynch any of these X people today because I find them the most suspicious." but that's not the way you parsed it, and furthermore, your "list of people who could possibly be scum." seems to oddly parallel those that have been found suspicious of others. Tell me this, if you have concluded that the people who are possibly scum are in that list of 5 people, then what caused you to discount the other 7 people? Why can't they be scum?

Sure;

1) Johhog is town via the meta-information that I found; that he strongly strongly prefers town and finds that he is a weak scum player. It might be nullified and 'wifom' brought into it had he mentioned the point himself however he never stated anything of the sort. Also I worked out what the whole Isa/white flag ect. thing has to do with and with that line of reasoning I no longer find his 'why lie for' statement as scummy and in fact find his 'finding me scummy for outside of game shit and i'll rage at you post game' as a town-tell. His change of vote and lesser activity seems to match his town player in the games I looked through and as scum he seems to attempt to post more.

2) Matias is town via a strong meta read that my team, specifically Slaxx has on him (Slaxx thinks he can read DH like a book) and Matias entire reaction towards the Haddock angle and his questioning of Zach/throwing himself into the limelight early game resembles his town play and reads as a strong town tell. Furthermore I really like the snippets of his teams QT that's been shared and overall I'd be shocked if he were scum.

3) Bubs case on Haddock reads like he genuinely believes it and his 'happiness' with himself after thinking he nailed a CES-Haddock connection in his massive quote wall cases read as a town-tell. Also similarly to Matias the comments that he's echoed from his teams QT read as a town-tells.

4) Haddock is a different sort of read. While I can see how his initial attack on Matias may be perceived as scummy I personally don't find it to be a scum-tell, I've seen newer/less experienced players react towards something like Matias did in that fashion as town before. I also think the way he threw himself into the midst of everything was town. Also liked him pointing out the Amrun doing little regarding scum-reads as it was something I was going to point out myself. Also when it comes to unlikely partnerships I have him ruled out with the most people in my QT. Don't see him as scum with Matias, Amrun, Johhog, Bub and Llarmable.

5) I like singers reaction towards the whole Matias initial incident. I also don't think she'd take a scum role after what happened last year, especially a scum role in White Flag. Also while her activity dropped I've liked a lot of what s he's saying.

6 and 7) CES and Benmage are shakier town-reads and I'll admit that I might be wrong about one of them but at this point I'm comfortable keeping them outside of the scum-pool. Although the whole 'consistency is a scum-tell and CES has been consistent' I really liked his list of reads that he did in brackets and also find a lot of his reads agree and line up with mine. Benmage is admittedly partially 'gut' based alongside with me liking his comment about why he'd take town.

[Regfan]

I've shown you mine, now show me yours

Okay. So can you explain your 'obvtown' read on Amrun for me as well as stating any other reads that you'd consider 'strong'.

[Regfan]

That's extremely fucking narrow. I'm p sure I have most, or at least close to the most, posts in the game, and you are trying to only classify "active" as "someone with as many posts as me." That's ridiculous. None of those players have received prods; all of them have posted content. That's an insanely impossible standard.

Captain Haddock re-stated his read because it's so wrong that people keep poking holes in his logic; some simply chose the longer route of doing so. I said, very simply and concisely, why his logic was wrong and scummy. He spent another ten years talking about; nothing changed. I had nothing more to say on the subject. I was paying attention to how he treated people, but sometimes, it's time to get in there, and sometimes, inserting yourself will change the outcome.

No one hounded me about my read on Captain Haddock because it wasn't fucking stupid, so I didn't have to explain it 10,000 times.

1) That's the thing though; you have the most posts but looking through your posts I don't see a massive amount of scumhunting and the ratio of scumhunting to defensiveness/relatively useless posts make me lean towards you being scum quite heavily. Perhaps it's an impossible standard I'm holding you to, but I've yet to see anything from you that's made me second guess my read strongly.

2) Sure, he restated his read because people were pointing out flaws in his argument however it was easy to see where his mind-set was in terms of who he FoS'ed which is what I consider to be town. The easier it is to follow someone elses thoughts and position the easier it is to read them.

Regfan, wanna wagon 'marble?

I'm happy with my vote on Amrun right now though I plan on talking with Slaxx about this game tomorrow so I'll see what he says.

[Regfan]

She was scummy before the comment and one person was voting for her. She was scummy after the comment, and four people are voting for her for stuff she did before the comment. Do you see the problem I have with this wagon? All those reasons could have been used earlier but they weren't, because Amrun wasn't a convenient wagon then.

Okay, this is idiotic. No one and I mean no one who voted Amrun voted her even partially because of 'any specific comment' yet you INSIST that it's the case. Sure, some of the reasons for voting her could have been used to vote her earlier but that doesn't negate the strength or validity of them been put forward later, nor does it make the votes that followed it suspicious in any way.

Can someone please explain to me why teammate-meta says Johhog is town?

That's 100% WIFOM and definitely not reason enough to call somebody town. There are many reasons why somebody would end up with scum when they wanted town or vice versa.

It'd be WIFOM had he brought it up himself, he hasn't. He hasn't once attempted to mention that he prefers town. Not just that but I was hoping not to go into it in full detail earlier but I will now. I think the whole Isa/whiteflag debacle was that Isa preferred White Flag but Johhog sucks as scum/Isa is better as scum and had to take a scum role elsewhere leaving Johhog taking a town role in this game. There's also non-meta reasons that I think Johhog is town and I've explained those.

I don't see this 'backtrack' thing that you two say he's doing. He hasn't once stated a weakened read on Amrun and is content with his vote on her; having a secondary FoS if the wagon were to fall apart isn't a scum-tell and his reasoning re; tsq isn't that bad. I've found TSQ"s contribution and posts since actually arriving here to be garbage and trash.

I've made three pretty definitive stances, so far. I think thats pretty good for now 2 days of activity. I'm not saying I've climbed out of the hole yet, but I think saying I'm not contributing and focusing only on myself is more than a little unfair. You missed the post where I declared amrun town, and the post where I attacked ces (in fact, a couple of them)

No, your contribution has been piss-weak since returning and you've spend about 20 times the amount of time insisting that your lurking is a null tell rather than actually jumping into the game and spending that time catching up and scumhunting. Your reasoning behind suspecting and voting CES is weak and only revolves around 1 comment of his and your 'obvtown' read on Amrun is something I've asked for you to explain and you haven't even stated a single word behind the reasoning of it. I cannot find this third definitive stance that you've taken either.

[Regfan]

go ahead and vote me, then, bro. One of the fundamental rules of mafia is that when one is attacked, one defends themselves. If you keep attacking me, I will keep defending myself. I have made several comments which you attempt to paint as "piss poor." or "weak" but they are scum hunting.

My primary focus is staying alive, at this point. As any player, town or scum, would want to do. If I keep getting attacked for lurking, I will keep defending myself on the issue. That's how the game works. Seeing as I am no longer lurking, the attack seems stupid to me, but I've been lynched for dumber things before, so I am paying it due attention. I am happy with my vote, because ces's insistence that I am scum based on shitty reasoning (he lurks as scum!) is bizarre. CES is a much more cerebral player than that. He (and you) can't possibly have enough info on my actions to have a firm read on me one way or the other. Therefore, it is odd and worth noting that he keeps pushing.

Amruns thing is a meta thing. If you'd really like me to divulge it you're going to need a particularly good reason for me to do so (i.e. she's about to get lynched) since I don't give up such information lightly.

1) I'm happy where my vote is right now and I'd rather vote Llarmable than you at the moment.

2) People are attacking you because you've yet to show a decent amount of actual scumhunting. So don't just stand there and repeat 'prove to me i lurk as scum or else your arguments are weak' instead read the entire fucking thread and then state some reads and analysis. That'll get people of your back.

3) I don't understand everyone wanting to hold their 'meta' information close to their chest. The more you share, the better everyone can read her/you from.

[Regfan]

Serious question: why is that okay for Johhog but not for me?

Multitude of reasons; 1) I have a strong town-read on him 2) I don't hold him and you to the same expectations due to experience levels ect. 3) I agree with his vote whereas I don't at all with yours 4) He's stated more scum-reads than just you.

Also Captains replace out for 'lack of help' and 'boring' is something I see more likely to come from town.

[Regfan]

Sorry, been very busy. Will get to this game tonight.

[Regfan]

Actually, my reasoning could fall under his umbrella term "I like the setup", but I will oblige you Zach.

LLamarble is an intelligent player. He is also a good player, touting an impressive win to loss ratio, and even going as far as listing himself an 8 or a 9 in terms of player skill. Although I can't find the thread, I remember his explanation of the reason vividly. Essentially, LLmarble's definition of a good player is the rate of turnaround when replacing into a slot. Turning a bad slot into a protown slot that lives to endgame is one of his primary criteria for viewing another player as "good".

Llmarble's cockiness is just the type of thing that would lead me to believe he chose scum again (given the option). However, that rests on the question - did he have the option? Given his play, I think so.

See, while I can follow your logic here I also think after last year and given his meta or liking pure scumhunting I think he would take white flag REGARDLESS of the role that his team had in it thereby nullifiying this entire line of logic or reasoning. Though I do think his play alone is scummy.

This really annoys me. We've been talking about how I don't think it's a valid attack. TSQ CLEARLY meant, "I'm here, I'm posting, and I'm trying to play this game," but Johhog tries to twist it into a scumtell because TSQ didn't post long analysis yet. I showed before how he was WRONG to say TSQ had posted no content, but even if that HAD been true, it's taking the heart of what TSQ was saying and twisting it in a way that I find really scummy.

He's voting for me, now, and I found zero reasons he thinks I'm scummy in his ISO. Literally zero. He hasn't mentioned Benmage since I ASKED him why Benmage was scummy - and when I mentioned that he had voted Benmage and Benmage was his only real suspect and he had little reasoning for it, he said that wasn't true.

But, yes, it IS true. In essence, Johhog has done exactly what he claimed TSQ did - say he provided content when he didn't. Johhog has now talked more about why TSQ is scum than anyone else in the game, period. And yet, his vote is on me. Why? I don't know. I don't think Johhog knows. It reeks of opportunism, and he's setting himself up to get on the popular votee TSQ's wagon should that become viable in deadline.

VOTE: Johhog

I really don't find Johhogs mentions of TSQ scummy and fail to even comprehend the argument you're using against him here. He disliked TSQs entrance, found it scummy, stated so, that's all there really is to it but people are blowing it up and making it something that it's not. And I've already explained that changing his vote without reasoning seems to be a meta-town-tell for him; it's the whole reason I looked through his games therefore his change of vote to you without saying anything else most certainly isn't a scum-tell. And Johhog being lesser active and providing little content is a scum-tell for him and not for other people or for you providing a lack of suspects earlier? I don't buy it. His vote on you CANNOT be opportunism because he was the FIRST person to vote you so your attempt to portray it as him parking his vote on a wagon with no reasoning is completely incorrect. Also how is 'setting self up for voting TSQ' a scum-tell when everyone in the room agrees that TSQ is a decent lynch if it were to come down to a deadline?

But oh wait, lets look at something;

That wasn't meant as an insult, Johhoq. I was in the exact same position last year, and still somewhat this year. You and Haddock are just less experienced than the rest of this playerlist. Weakestt becomes quite relative when the overall level is high.

So you maintained Haddock as your primary scum-read and kept your vote on him for the first 3 quarters of the day, then moved to Johhog. That means you've attacked BOTH of the people that you claim are weaker players without showing much focus or real suspicion elsewhere at all. Die.

[Regfan]

We're nearing the end of the day, we're going to have to start moving towards a lynch so it's not last minute scramble. Bub, while I think Zach has a decent chance of being scum given that his posts have really gone downhill in this game he's not being lynched today so move to Amrun please.

[Regfan]

@Regfan: Yes, I am - and the fact that I said that myself should tell you I don't give a rip - and has zero scum motivation. I'm going to vote whomever I think has the highest chance of flipping scum. I also have scumreads on TSQ and singer, but I think they have lower chances of flipping scum than Johhog.

There's plenty of scum motivation. Weaker players are generally easy to push because they defend themselves worse and drop things which can be manufactured into scum-tells. As for you making the comment earlier. I don't think it's something that came to your mind when you started your push on Johhog but the fact that you called him an easy lynch to Matias alone makes your push that much more suspect on him. Especially when I think that it's likely an attempt to jump on an alternative created wagon that isn't yourself or TSQ.

But, on that note, my scumread on Haddock is lessening. I like Captain Falcon so far, and even though I know it doesn't matter at all, I can't help but feel less passion for that Ajax flipped scum. I'm trying to reason myself with statistics that I know. I did think Haddock's replace out was a minor town tell, though.

And you should know that half of a meta means nothing. What did you find in his scum meta? Does he switch votes without reason there?

I'm not really caring about him switching votes without reason, though. I'm caring about his hypocrisy and image consciousness.

His scum meta was a lot different, he explained votes and went into things on a deeper level then what I could find from his early day town-games. His hypocrisy is something I still don't understand or agree with; He found TSQs contribution lacking, that's not scummy, that's understandable and acceptable and him having less content himself doesn't change the fact that he can legitimately find it a scum-tell, perhaps not the strongest of ones but still one.

[Regfan]

I want this Amrun lynch through soooooooo bad.

[Regfan]

There IS scum motivation to push weaker players. There ISN'T scum motivation to go, "HEY THESE PLAYERS ARE WEAKER AND HERE'S WHY - OH HEY I'M GOING TO PUSH THEM."

That's not how it went though. It didn't go like that at all and I'm guessing had I not quoted that comment it probably wouldn't have been brought up or mentioned. The manner in which you said that they were weaker players was when you were telling Matias that his push towards them is 'easy' which could completely be to white-knight a townie alongside with show some instance of 'scumhunting' whereas your turnaround makes COMPLETE sense as you jumping on a wagon that is already going with piss-shit reasoning to save yours/tsqs own asses. If you thought TSQ was scum then him stating that he wouldn't mind compromising on TSQ wouldn't be a strong scum-tell a all. You quoted a bunch of posts of Johhogs and are now backtracking on what exactly you found to be scum-tells of his.

It's not that he found TSQ's contribution lacking that I find scummy. It's the way he expressed himself about it. It looked to me like he was trying to find a scumtell, and found something he could construe as a scumtell. And he demands reasons that people are suspecting him, and yet doesn't give any of his own. I also don't like that his strongest reasoning for scum is about TSQ, and yet that's not where his vote is. I have scumreads on them both, so I noticed that immediately. My preferred lynch pool is {Johhog, TSQ, Haddock, singer} in that order, and I would compromise on a couple of others.

His defending himself and wanting to know reasoning behind peoples votes on him alongside with him attempting to diffuse this TSQ thing is not a scum-tell in the slightest. I actually find his 'if you suspect me for non-game related reasons' to be something that is much more likely to be said from town than scum and while scum want to be defensive it's also something that town do too - town players HATE being voted, especially newer/weaker town players. Also #610 from him is a decent explanation to the whole TSQ thing.

[Regfan]

But, yes, it IS true. In essence, Johhog has done exactly what he claimed TSQ did - say he provided content when he didn't. Johhog has now talked more about why TSQ is scum than anyone else in the game, period.

And yet, his vote is on me. Why? I don't know. I don't think Johhog knows. It reeks of opportunism

, and he's setting himself up to get on the popular votee TSQ's wagon should that become viable in deadline.

The bolded bit is the scummiest thing in the entire thread so far. I touched on it earlier but didn't go into it enough; You state that he's being opportunistic, which is one of the most used 'buzz' words that people use to enhance the strength of a case. Had you read his ISO, any vote count or anything at all you'd KNOW for a fact that his vote could not be opportunistic since placing an unexplained vote on someone that has 0 other votes on them is almost the opposite of opportunistic.

[Regfan]

@Regfan...can we pleasepleaseplease lynch Shea first? As shitty as her play's been so far, I'm having a hard time grasping at its scumminess outside of her connection to Shea. Basically Shea is scum regardless of Amrun's alignment, and I'd really like to see him flip first.

While I can see where you're coming from I actually believe the opposite. That being that I can see Amrun as scum regardless of TSQ's alignment. I'm really hoping people look at the fact that her 'scumhunting' or 'cases' have been on weaker players (Which is what scum would do in this exact position since pushing anyone else leads towards them being able to defend themselves well). If her lynch doesn't gain enough momentum before deadline hits I'll move to TSQ though.

Honestly, given the amount of strong town reads I have I think there's a great chance of them both being mafia ignoring any connection between them. With that said my biggest worry is that I get NKed tonight to watch the town eat itself alive. I really cannot stress enough how confident I am in Bub/Matias/Captain and Johhog being town and to a slightly lesser extent to you, CES and Benmage. If I do die I want this reads section requoted over and over again.

Maguas in the process of reading through this game so I'll see what he says about it other than the fact that he hates mountainous and hates all of us.

[Regfan]

Yeah, feeling a LOT more confident now then I was earlier.

Also I can see both Llarmable and Shea as scum but I think you're wrong about Benmage. I really think he'd play a completely different game than this as scum.

[Regfan]

Also if Amrun flips scum I think the chances that Socio is scum is decreased by quite a bit.

[Regfan]

Please explain. I don't see anything that would indicate this.

The biggest reason is #87. Amrun seems to legitimately forget that Socio was in the game/played in the game last year and if they were scum together I think it's something that would have come to their attention pre-game. Also don't think it's something they'd plan to fake as scum.

Plus a smaller reason is that Socios 'case writes themselves' without voting Amrun doesn't seem like something he'd do to a partner. If he wanted to buss or create points against a team-mate he'd vote alongside it to attain some form of credit later + other interactions don't read as partners.

[Regfan]

Magua finally finished the read through. He agrees with me about Matias/Bub/Captain town and is very confident in them. He also agrees that Johhog is probably town from meta and thinks Zach is town strongly (We're going to be discussing this one because I don't see the strength of that). He has a strong scum read on TSQ and Llarmable and has everyone else more around nullish. Discussing Amrun with him too.

Amrun, if you think that TSQ is scum then how is Johhog stating that he would change to TSQ come deadline a scum-tell? Also about half the room has stated the same thing including me, so why is it not a scum-tell for anyone else? Honestly your whole case on Johhog is extremely bad.

IAll people on the Johhog wagon need to choose a new wagon. There is zero chance that Johhog will flip scum in my mind. The makeup of his team would not allow for the setup the requires the best scumhunting/manipulative prowess to rest on Johhog. I am sorry if this comes off as rude, Johhog, but you have just come back from a retirement and I think it would be incredibly dangerous for your team to choose you as a scum member in White Flag if your team was given the option.

Thank you. EVERYONE voting Johhog needs to get the fuck of.

Zach's wagon is equally as bad, if not worse. The people advocating a lynch or a flash lynch should end this needless pressure on Zach. Like Johhog, there is zero chance that Zach is scum given the makeup of his team and the fact that Zach plays a visibly worse scumgame and has expressed dislike of scum publicly.

This was my initial thought however it's weakened a lot as the day has gone on. I really dislike his place thus far but aren't anywhere near comfortable lynching him.

I think you're wrong about Bub. Read his case on Haddock (Your slot) it comes off as if he genuinely believes everything in it and he thinks he nailed a CES-
Haddock connection from it that I don't think he'd have gone into as scum. Also Haddock was right about Amrun and you're best following his footsteps re; it.

[Regfan]

Amrun is not getting lynched. Switch to shea, Johhog.

Why isn't she getting lynched and does a Amrun-TSQ-Llarmable scum-team work?

[Regfan]

I think the reasoning behind Amrun being scum is a lot stronger than Shea being scum, so yes.

[Regfan]

Which do you think is more likely:

1) TSQ's team would let him get deadline lynched as scum without him posting to defend himself or push the wagon elsewhere.
2) Amruns team getting her to jump on another leading wagon to save herself from getting lynched as scum (Note: Johhog and TSQ votes)

Because I find 2) more likely than 1).

[Regfan]

Q

uestion: Johhog, do you prefer scum or town? Which do you think you're better at? Why?

I did come across this and this post of his here he states he much strongly prefers town roles, though he was scum in that game. Looked a little further and found him saying essentially the same thing in this game

From the first link:

1) What alignment and role do you prefer, and why?

I like pro-town roles more, as I've a hard time lying and love to take out the bad guys.

From the third link:

2) Would you prefer to be Mafia or Town?

I always prefer to be town, I just can't lie.

Would prefer to be town more than ever in this game, can't be easy to be a scum-IC in your first IC game.

It's like you didn't read the post where I explained why I was pretty sure he was town. But wait;

I actually think 669 by Falcon is a good point, and

a quick skim of meta reveals that Regfan's representation of Johhog's meta is pretty accurate.

Also my teammates don't really think Johhog is scum. They don't have a town read on him, really, but not convinced he's scum.

[Regfan]

Now can we lynch her CES?

[Regfan]

I'll be at a drinking-marathon thing for the next 24 hours so I likely won't be able to post at all during it.

No.

Every time you refuse to join me on the Amrun lynch you give Magua reason to mock me more. Nobody wants that.

[Regfan]

Matias, Magua wants to know if you think Shea is town (If so why) or if you just think the wagon on him is opportunistic. I'd like Bub to answer it too.

Bub makes this very big post saying that he still does not agree with other people saying Haddock is town, and votes him to prove his still confident in this slot being scum. However, when I was skimming through the thread, he eventually just drops this line of suspicion onto someone else? I don't believe it and I'll make another comment once I read through more of the thread, but that is one thing that definitely stuck out in my mind.

Funny how he went from dead certain that Haddock was scum to wanting a lynch on Haddock and Johhog to voting Johhog. I do not think Bub is town in the slightest. I think he is trying to setup for the best availability of a mislynch and Matias's suspicions + rebuttal against Regfan was the motivation and the spark that Bub needed to jump onto Johhog. No mention of my slot at all when he made this post.

This is probably the reason I find strongest in your entire wall and reduces the strength of my town read on him quite a bit. His dropping of his Haddock-CES case and theory happens very abruptly without much discussion or explanation behind it. It also leaves him an opening to jump back to this theory later if a mslynch or two were to happen. I want it explained asap. With that said, I think you're exaggerating some of his other actions and tunneling somewhat.

For instance the same point re; lack of opens played could be said for me. I hate most theme games, I hate games that involve a lot of roles. I prefer relatively vanilla setups and find open setups specifically mountainous style setups to be a lot more enjoyable however my 'wiki' or 'game history' contains nearly no games of it. Also I disagree with your point about his "town loss stagnation" making him more likely to have a scum role because as town this sort of system (Team Mafia) is the perfect way to improve your town game. You're able to discuss reads, thoughts, theories and ideas with 3 other people that you know are town.

Some other things about your wall;

- While I see where you're coming from with Socio I don't agree. I think Town-Socio is likely to be trying to be more reserved to avoid a night kill but I also think Scum-Socio will use that same excuse to be lesser active so altogether I find his drop in activity this year in comparison to last years game to be relatively null.

- I'd like your stance on Llarmable explained, because in #632 you stated that you thought given his play he was scum however he's not one of your Amrun-CES-Bub connection. Does this mean you have alternate scum-reads outside of your called scum team?

- I didn't fully grasp or decipher what you were referring to re; "Able to read like a book" comment but hopefully someone on my team can.

[Regfan]

Also 18 hours till the deadline. Can people switch their votes to Amrun now please.

[Regfan]

I can also not comment on anything with regards to your book comment without potentially getting a point infraction. I'm sorry I even brought it up.

I worked it out now that I know your main. Also I feel like an idiot for not working out you were Oversoul earlier. I had thought you might have been LlamaFluff.

[Regfan]

I both think Shea is town at this point AND the wagon on him is opportunistic.

Ok. Why do you think he's town?

Also if you want/don't mind an Amrun lynch and hate a TSQ one then you should be placing your vote down on Amrun now. Waiting for the hammer to vote is dumb.

[Regfan]

Only one or twice.

[Regfan]

I'll bullet the case on Amrun:

- Her scum-reads up until it was pointed out (2ish RL days ago) consisted of Haddock and only Haddock, she hadn't mentioned him since her vote on him. The severe lack of scum-reads given her high activity doesn't bode well whatsoever, especially considering the hardest thing for scum to fake is valid scum-reads.

- Her votes this game have gone from Haddock->Johhog->TSQ. She earlier (Much earlier) stated Haddock and Johhog were weaker players making her votes on them extremely suspect and the vote on TSQ is primarily survivalistic. Furthermore her reasoning behind voting Johhog was atrocious, especially since he admitted she read my meta on him and found it valid afterwards, then progressed to asking him if he prefers town/scum and which he's better at which is exactly what my meta on him was about and included links to him having already answered that question.

There's a lot more but I don't have any more time and won't be on before deadline. Please vote Amrun though.