TM2012: White Flag Mafia (Game Over)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: Llamarble

First game to start, last game to end. (probably)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Both of those are pro-town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Trying to remain in a state of zero information is pro-town?

No, which is why my vote for 'marble is pro-town as is not giving scum something easy to grapple with.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Who are your scumreads so far then? singer doesn't count; that logic is null at this point.

Hint: only correct answer is Llamarble.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

VOTE: Captain Haddock

Nope.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

FoS: Matias

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

and followed up with "you are wrong so I get to vote you"

Pretty sure that's an artifact of spatial proximity instead of something Captain Haddock actually did.

P.S. My FoS in #56 is more general than implied.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES is being cagey and it makes me uncomfortable. Not sure why he's so avidly attacking early reads. What is so bad about Llamarble's Haddock read?

Besides being based on silliness in part, he was trying to do this one-liner vote post with "hey, hey, that post is scummy, bam vote" subtext and I just felt it fell flat. That wasn't the kind of post that would induce such an immediate response.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think it's more of a staple as LLamarble as a player, rather than Llamarble as scum. (Probably closer to the opposite, actually.)

Which is why he would do it badly?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Consider this me asking everyone why they chose this game.

Best set-up with the best player list.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Consider this me asking everyone why they chose this game.

Best set-up with the best player list.

You didn't know the player list when you picked the game, though - so why add that?

I may not have known but I still expected it would have the best player list (a quick looksee confirms it does). It certainly did last year.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

MetaMafia

Probably telling the truth.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

My placing is based purely on the "scum would blend in" argument that doesn't actually apply to me, right, DH?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Your vote on Llamarble was terrible in general. Why do you think it wouldn't apply to you?

It doesn't apply to me because I always place my vote on the biggest bandwagon at the beginning of a game. Purest meta null tell you're likely to find.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'd look myself but I usually don't go much further than the wiki, and you have no games posted. The Llamarble RVS wagon is useless if you have meta of this.

I had all my games posted but then the rollback took it all anyway.

I'm lazy so I'll just post some IM logs talking about an offsite game:
CogitoErgoMafia (5:25:23): anyway
CogitoErgoMafia (5:25:32): you could've caught me after 2 posts
EvilMina121 (5:25:36): I think you also seemed kind of disconnected from the action during the lynch.
EvilMina121 (5:25:49): Why, out of curiosity?
EvilMina121 (5:25:51): Did you make a meta slip?
CogitoErgoMafia (5:25:58): my first vote wasn't maximally bandwagonny
EvilMina121 (5:26:28): Your Siuan vote was, though...except you changed it right away.
EvilMina121 (5:26:59): I didn't know that particular meta tell of yours. In fact, I always suspect you more when you put a bandwagon vote on someone I trust.
CogitoErgoMafia (5:27:06): I always place my random vote
CogitoErgoMafia (5:27:12): on the leading votegetter

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

So no reasoning for any of those, 'marble? And why did you put me in scumland?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Unvote, vote: shea

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Shea-benmage-Llamarble is the scum team.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Johhog's townieness shines through in his Team Mafia-related dealings. He's not scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

191 is BS because Johhog's team mafia related dealings are one of the sketchiest things about him because he spends a lot of time talking about it and scum LOVE talking about things they can be honest about.

We're not really talking about the same thing. And I don't think think he's being honest about the specific dealings I'm talking about if he's scum. And your scum read on me is shallow, 'marble.

Your Amrunscumread sucks, Regfan.

SHEA-BENMAGE-LLAMARBLE 2012

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES

worst list ever?

I suspect I'd need to mention more than 3 names to be able to compete for that title.

-question. In 143 you call the bandwagon vote a meta null tell. In 147 it indicates its a town tell. Which is it?

Null tell. I had no reason to match my town meta in the offsite game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Who else is scum with you?

Shea and 'marble (hint: both of those are easier to get lynched, so focus on them?)

Re: #234, yes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Eh. It's an inherent part of the Team Mafia set-up, nothing iffy about it. If Zor had wanted to avoid the issue, he could've just gone with not telling the teams what role they get.

(You didn't answer why I was scum btw)

Correct. Very observant of you.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

*shrug* I know he considered it for this year, so obviously the otter has reasons for wanting to keep it this way.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I really can't read Amrun, so I'm asking my QT for help.

Why would you ask those suckers for help?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What does DDD think of Amrun, Zach?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Winvitational, in which I definitely tried hard and don't remember him thinking I was scum

He thought you were town that game. (Which is why I asked.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think you need to understand someone as a person to be able to read them in this game, if you needed to be able to understand a person to read them then reading a new-ish player or someone you haven't played with before would be near impossible but that's not true. I still think your TSQ thoughts make no sense and you're making less and less sense about it in our back and forths so contuining arguing about it won't get us anywhere.

Amrun is making plenty of sense, so try again?

P.S. good town tells aren't easy to fake.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Amrun is making plenty of sense, so try again?

I don't agree at all.

That is not an option. Unless you think I'm just inventing stuff, I wouldn't be able to find the meaning in Amrun's posts if there wasn't any.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Votes sitting on a player who hasn't posted yet just DON'T DO ANYTHING, and I would not expect a player who loves bandwagons and believes in the power of votes to make useful things happen the way CES does to just let his vote sit around on a lurker.

And your explanation is what?

Bud's case is silly.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The only discussion that the TSQ wagon has produced is that I've called it a frustrating waste of vote-time, and that could've been accomplished equally well by you and the other players on it not voting at all. I think TSQ lurking and posting in other threads is scummy, but he can be voted later once he shows up and is available to actually interact with his accusers / provide something for people to actually talk about. And I would expect you of all people to feel the same way.

That's not an explanation of my actions.

This post is also CES' third "I'm going to dismiss this out of hand with no particular explanation."
I don't like all the defanging of stuff without offering a useful alternative. It makes the game more passive.
CES is all oneliners and no push this game.

I think the lesson there is people should stop putting forward ideas that are dumb and boring.

Quote tag fixed. (Equinox)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That points out an interesting trend of CES not making real arguments, but I digress. CES responded to Llamarble's vote on you by saying "nope". Llamarble pointed out his reasons for voting me and then you stepped in and defended CES' position for him.

Haddock was arguing against the notion that he was scum. My position (which is that Llamarble is scums) has literally nothing to do with what Haddock was arguing.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

My explanation of your actions is that you're not trying to find scum but are instead doing things you think will look reasonable like voting a lurker and shooting stuff down.

That doesn't sound like me. Are you sure you're not confusing with me with someone who's not good at playing scum? FEZ, maybe?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Scum: Thestatusquo, benmage, Llamarble
Back-up scum: Bud Bibberskins, Captain Haddock, Amrun

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Except Captain Haddock.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Wait, are people voting TSQ? That's stupid considering all the scum in this game that are actually posting.

Are you saying you're expecting scum to be among the most active players? If so, why is that?

No, I'm saying there are scum among the players that are actually posting, so its stupid to attack people who won't respond to you when there are scummier people who will.

We're lynching sheascum Today, so that seems very productive to me.

SHEA-BENMAGE-LLAMARBLE 2012

Me and DGB were basically the only ones to think Benmage was scum in Winvitational. (He was; he won.)

(Wrong.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I intend for my reads to be static throughout the game.

Why is your scumhunting so shallow, 'marble?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok too.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, you obviously didn't get the implication I was going for. And I do believe consistency is normally a scum tell, yes. So what do you conclude from that?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why aren't you answering my questions, 'marble?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I assume you meant 3 days isn't long enough for consistency to be scummy.
But you had a lot of posts in that time and it still doesn't feel right.

Not in the least bit what I meant. That doesn't fit with my "I intend for my reads to be static throughout the game." either.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I've posted multiple twoliners. And no, that wasn't sarcasm. Think intentionally exaggerated optimism.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Pfft. Getting him lynched won't be too easy; if he's town, he'll have plenty of time to catch up and show that he is. But I have no intention of giving him a chance to ease back into the game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think you realize the fact that TSQ has pretty much been replacement dodging and not posting anything of value is a significant problem. You can call the lynch stupid all you want, but it actually does have more than a reasonable chance of hitting scum, and I'll be damned if I'm going to let him get deep into the game playing like this.

There are 13 players in this game, of which three are scum. The chance of TSQ being scum is completely random, since we have 0 reads on him at all. Do you consider a 23% chance to be reasonable?

My current distribution is something like 0.8 scum in {Johhog, Matias, Regfan, singersigner, SocioPath, Zachrulez}, 0.8 scum in {Captain Haddock, Bud Bibberskins, Amrun}, 1.4 scum in {Thestatusquo, benmage, Llamarble}. 46.67% is pretty decent odds.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think you realize the fact that TSQ has pretty much been replacement dodging and not posting anything of value is a significant problem. You can call the lynch stupid all you want, but it actually does have more than a reasonable chance of hitting scum, and I'll be damned if I'm going to let him get deep into the game playing like this.

There are 13 players in this game, of which three are scum. The chance of TSQ being scum is completely random, since we have 0 reads on him at all. Do you consider a 23% chance to be reasonable?

My current distribution is something like 0.8 scum in {Johhog, Matias, Regfan, singersigner, SocioPath, Zachrulez}, 0.8 scum in {Captain Haddock, Bud Bibberskins, Amrun}, 1.4 scum in {Thestatusquo, benmage, Llamarble}. 46.67% is pretty decent odds.

That's not the chance of him being scum. You also need to factor in the very real chance that your whole distribution is complete bollocks.

Nah. I spent some time calibrating that and I'm pretty sure it's an accurate representation of my beliefs.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

(This is boring.)

Hmmm.
-MetaMafia seemed like it would require too much devotion. I'm already strapped...plus now I have to help my teammates .
-Scummies popularity contest.
I chose 1-3 as possible choices I'd wanna play in. Just got WF.

Benmage, if you were so ambivalent about which one you'd get, why did your team pick WF in the first round? My team is the only other one that picked WF in the first round and I sure as hell wasn't ambivalent.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

(This is boring.)

Hmmm.
-MetaMafia seemed like it would require too much devotion. I'm already strapped...plus now I have to help my teammates .
-Scummies popularity contest.
I chose 1-3 as possible choices I'd wanna play in. Just got WF.

Benmage, if you were so ambivalent about which one you'd get, why did your team pick WF in the first round? My team is the only other one that picked WF in the first round and I sure as hell wasn't ambivalent.

I dont know how the round picking works... I thought you just picked the 4 you wanted.. Didn't know they were ranked.

Prolly WF was 1st, simply because it was #1 (no?)... And Both MoS and I said 1-3 for us.

And that leads to a list of WF-Back Room-Scummies-Almost/Closed Normal how?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Whats the point of this question?

Are you really asking me why I'm quizzing about seemingly contradictory information? Especially when the original post wherein you explained why you picked White Flag was rambling and contradictory?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

There are 13 players in this game, of which three are scum. The chance of TSQ being scum is completely random, since we have 0 reads on him at all. Do you consider a 23% chance to be reasonable?

This IS a good point.

No. It's a sucky point even if the basic notion (that we have no info on TSQ) were true.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why do you think that TSQ is scum?

Shea lurks as scum + I think him picking White Flag is suspect + he's pretty much responding to the continued pressure as I'd expect lurkerscum to respond.

Pet theory: he's less motivated because benmage pushed for benmage-Llamarble crossdefending pre-game clearly implying (or quite possibly outright stating) that shea was the weak link in the scum team.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

P.S. shea-benmage-llamarble 2012

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Confess and/or sheep me?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm interested in a lot of this. Can you provide meta of shea lurking as scum (and any countermeta), for reference? Why do you think him picking White Flag is suspect?

See this post + Glrok told me he does. Him picking White Flag is suspect because I wouldn't really expect him to play in this one (also not to the extent that they'd pick it #2 at the draft) whereas it does seem to fit Ellibereth and Porochaz to a lesser extent. Ellibereth definitely prefers town, Poro I think does too and shea, if he doesn't prefer scum, at least is better at scum, so it would make sense for shea to grab this game if it had a scum PM.

And as for your pet theory, why do you think benmage and llamarble's behavior backs that up? Can you show me?

They have each other in their probtown lists, mostly.

CES' pet theory is pretty wat.
I know TSQ in real life, so I doubt he'd lurk this much if we were scumbuddies.

Then you'd also know he can be kind of an ass.

P.S. if this lurking is by choice, he's scum anyway, so I don't know why you're making that type of argument.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

ScumCES fears nothing*.

*except chamber

Where does it list the order in which our requests were submitted?

This is where I'm getting my info from.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Oh bleh, that's true; a bunch of teams ended up not submitting lists.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Shea, I'm going to trust my team mates when they tell me stuff like that + it kind of feels like in character for you. Also: Weather Mafia II.

Benmage is admittedly partially 'gut' based alongside with me liking his comment about why he'd take town.

I still kind of think he picked White Flag ahead of time (like he said "No power roles. Skill>=win.") and he made that comment to look town.

Regfan, wanna wagon 'marble?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yes? I'm disputing that?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

EBWOP: not disputing

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Like, I am directly challenging something you have said is the reason you think I was scum, you can't say "welp, I believe it, even though I have no proof it is true."

One out of three reasons. You haven't exactly given me any good reasons to disbelieve it either.

Do you not see how that's a nonsensical position, especially considering I haven't been the only inactive player, and my lurking is the type that is much more likely to come from a player who is simply not getting the time to devote to the game, regardless of alignment? Like, do you seriously think that scum would think it beneficial to not post at all? Drawing all attention to themselves? No. Is there town motivation for doing so? No. It's a completely null tell. Let me post content and THEN tell me you think I'm scum. That doesn't sound like an unreasonable request.

Is there scum motivation to wait until you can get back into the game into a somewhat natural manner? Pretty sure there is. I mean, of course a good part of the lurking you've done is going to attributable to real life, but as a whole your lurking looks like a scum tell to me.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yeah, Johhog is still town.

(I'm focusing on positives here.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Try reading things, Bud.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I want Johhog hung.

You should sheep The Fonz.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Basically it boils down to this. Since I am no longer lurking, in order to use it for a reason to vote me, you have to show why you think it is more likely to come from scum shea than town shea. If you plan on doing this, I would like you to provide ONE example of me lurking day one as scum strategically. One. Hell, if you can do that, then maybe I'd be willing to do more than dismiss the continued votes on me as opportunism. Because I'm sure it doesn't exist. Furthermore, you would have to tell me why you think doing what I did as scum puts me at an advantageous position, because frankly, what I'm doing right now, is having a hell of a lot of pressure and having to do a hell of a lot of arguing to convince people that something is a null tell. If you can argue with a straight face that this is the type of position that a scum player attempts to put themselves in, then I don't even know what to tell you.

X

Disingenuous bullshit. Like I said earlier, there's obviously a real-life component to the lurking so those downsides you describe were going to be there regardless. I still maintained that you would've lurked less as town and that the timing of your return was suspect (you pretty much immediately had something to attack someone over).

P.S. this seems to contradict your earlier "can't stand that strategy" comment.

What was the implication you were going for?

That I won't have to change my mind on anyone because I'm already right about everything.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Shea, opinion on 'marble? Specifically the shallowness of his scumhunting?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm not going to spit through your games looking for a game wherein you were scum, lurked D1 and acknowledged that it was strategic. That's a waste of my time.

As to your second point, firstly, I did not. Secondly, your overwhelming desire to comment on every litte thing clearly hasn't manifested itself here. Thirdly, there's a pretty big difference between "can't stand that strategy" and "that strategy doesn't suit me/I don't find it enjoyable"; the first expresses a fairly common sentiment that you explicitly go against in that post I linked.

P-edit: just iso him?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because it suggests he was waiting for that type of opportunity where he can just come in and respond to something. Like a pouncing tiger.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

And llama and I are town, fyi.

Feel free to explain this.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Could you move your vote someplace useful, Socio?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You've refound your confidence then, Regfan?

SHEA-LLAMARBLE-BENMAGE 2012

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also I can see both Llarmable and Shea as scum but I think you're wrong about Benmage. I really think he'd play a completely different game than this as scum.

Hmmm. You might have a point there.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

There are scenarios where team mates flipping scum or town would be meaningful, but I really don't see how Captain Ajax's alignment is supposed to be linked to Captain Falcon's. It's null.

MoI supports a Zach flashwagon.

And this:

Thestatusquo (4) - singersigner, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez, Llamarble

Make me think that a Llamarble/Zach scum team is impossible.

Really? Impossible? Because MoImarble throws some suspicion his way and they happen to have been on the same wagon at some point?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

P.S. people should start compromising onto the sheawagon soonish.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Amrun is not getting lynched. Switch to shea, Johhog.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You really think a strong player like Amrun would get deadline-lynched over lurker Shea with the votes 4-2 in her favour at the start? And sure, I guess that team would work.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Such naïveté.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I find 1) more likely than 2), actually. I haven't seen any sign that TSQ's team cares about what happens in this game and frankly, his team mates don't strike me as the type that would.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Amrun, Bub, and CES are the scumteam.

Their interactions with each other are all passive attempts at applying suspicion and they each in turn seem to defend each other in a cycle

So what you're saying is that that Amrun-Bub-CES is definitely not the scum team?

I was going to respond to points in Falcon's wall but bleh, too much inanity to deal with.

More votes for shea.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

TSQ wagon is bad. His response to being run up is town and the lurking his wagon was based on seems unlikely to be strategic.

It's unlikely to be entirely strategic, but that's not particularly relevant.

He's been unapologetic/righteously-annoyed at his wagon in a town way since getting back.

He's pretending the problem doesn't exist in a competent scum way.

He called Amrun town, and scum don't often call likely alternatives to themselves town.

Shouldn't, maybe (since you can just self preservation your way onto the wagon). Don't, no.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Erm, no. You each in turn are applying minor pressure as well as defending each other, but never the same person at the same time. I have seen scum do this as a way to distance.

It works just fine as a sign that X and Y are buddies if X and Y are not too competent. But having an entire team act that way amongst each other seems pretty unlikely to me especially if it's a team that's supposed to have Amrun and me on it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Amrun and shea are the only 2 acceptable votes right now.

More votes for shea, please.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Zach is town tho'.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I had thought you might have been LlamaFluff.

I'm going to guess you haven't played much with LlamaFluff then?

Matias, let me repeat my suggestion that you sheep The Fonz. Being dead I'm sure he has the time to look over this game for you.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

AMRUN

Get your ass in here and help me get shea lynched.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He's explained himself, scumhunted (though at a lesser degree) and just tried to get into the swing of things

Are you reading the same game as me? Because pretty much all I've seen from him is "your vote is illegitimate" type bullshit.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Called Regfan dying.

If that's not enough to get Llamarble lynched (and preferably Shea right after), then I'm switching towns.

Vote: Llamarble

@Falcon, in cases like Llamarble's where he was pretty much guaranteed to pick White Flag, analysis is pointless; his alignment here is inherently independent of the other games.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Matias, has The Fonz commented at all on this game?

Singer, shea is Tomorrow's wagon. Llamarble is Today's scum flip.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, more Team Meta, but knowing TSQ's history I know I personally would not give him a scumrole. It is just asking for unnecessary attention.

If shea wanted a scum role (plausible), do you really think Porochaz-Ellibereth-Kison would deny him? Not a chance.

CES, you mentioned that Regfan dying is a sign pointing to Llmarble, why is that?

Regfan had the same Shea-'marble suspicions as I did. He was without a doubt the right kill to make for Llamarblescum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're saying that someone decided to pick a scum role when they could have given it to someone else, lurk for days, give bullshit excuses about their family and make a thinly veiled attempt to scumhunt in TEAM MAFIA. And you really truly believe that?

Unless 3-4 members of his team drew scum, I HIGHLY DOUBT that Shea would throw himself onto the scum role in such conditions. Do you really believe what you are saying, singer?

Obvious explanation is that real life really came up after team mafia and that that explains a great deal of his lurking.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Nacho, you get one chance to look townie and it involves bussing 'marble. Take it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He was 3 votes from being lynched yesterday and I think the frustration spilled over to today.

And that makes singer town. Frustration makes absolutely zero sense for singerscum given that D1 ended with an Amrunlynch.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You'd think that scum singer would be happy with the way the Amrun wagon took off on it's own, basically.

Yes, you would. And thus there'd be no frustration to spill over to Today.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

People are irrational. Emotion like this is pro-town if anything.

Meaning that she was frustrated yesterday when the TSQ lynch didn't automatically happen, happy when Amrun took off (and kind of coached it along by arguing with Amrun a bit) and THEN was equally frustrated when someone (me) fought against the TSQ lynch today.

Why would it carry over then? It wouldn't.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, I think it would. I think it's just an easy argument to make and a vote to fall back on, so we can agree to disagree there.

Sure? But you don't fall back on frustration?

You honestly think the contradiction is pro-town irrationality, though?

Yes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES. Rectify this statement in terms of what your teammates have stated within the last 4 hours with relation to this specific tell.

I think it's mostly null with a team like Captain's. Like I said, you need to have beliefs about how the team assigns its role PMs before you can really draw meaningful conclusions from it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES. Rectify this statement in terms of what your teammates have stated within the last 4 hours with relation to this specific tell.

I think it's mostly null with a team like Captain's. Like I said, you need to have beliefs about how the team assigns its role PMs before you can really draw meaningful conclusions from it.

And where did you say this exactly?

I was referring to the comment you quoted. ("There are scenarios where team mates flipping scum or town would be meaningful, but I really don't see how Captain Ajax's alignment is supposed to be linked to Captain Falcon's. It's null.")

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you think I'm faking that stance, then what's the flaw in my logic, Oversoul? It's sound reasoning.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

So let's focus on what we can talk about; "You need to have beliefs about how the team assigns its role PMs before you can really draw meaningful conclusions from it." is pretty much provably right, so your case is without merit.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

There are 2 possibilities:
1) You are missing something.
2) I'm making up my opinions to suit my scum agenda.

If it's 2), then you should be able to point to where my logic fails (if as you say you don't think Ajax flipping is null in relation to you, then explain why).

I noticed you did this with Llmarble too as if you are undermining any out of game towniness so you wouldn't have to deal with "confirmed" people in a set up that normally wouldn't give "confirms".

What are you talking about?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Pedit: I think CES is tryin to get me to say something that will get me in trouble

Like I care if your team gets a point deduction.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

As far as who is scummy, I think that Socio guy is scummy as hell.
He has lurked all game, and hasn't provided much content. (if ANY real content)
Hasn't been helpful at all, hasn't been cooperative with the town and clear townies out there.
Still alive D2 despite being on the returning champion's team with all the insight and knowledge that goes with that.
Has said ONE WORD today so far, which only looks to have been said to dodge prods.

Add "goes after easy targets" to that list. Matias is probtown.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Are you really going to argue technicalities?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Would that be scummy?

It can be. Not meaningfully so here.

Point is, sometimes Occam's razor applies.

Bayes' Theorem applies all the time though.

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Nacho, do you really think they'd kill Regfan if both Llamarble and you were town?

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TownmisguidedRegfan can be very useful to have around for the scums, so why wouldn't they take advantage of that?

And I forgot to add "P.S. Zach is town." to my previous post.

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Regfan having 6 strong correct town reads and his 3 top scum reads all being wrong would be one heck of a coincidence.

And if I weren't pushing it, there'd be no extra suspicion thrown on 'marble and you (and people are ignoring me when it comes to that too). Let's not pretend otherwise.

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Cogito Ergo Sum (1) - Captain Falcon
Matias (1) - SocioPath
Nachomamma8 (1) - singersigner
singersigner (1) - Matias
Zachrulez (1) - Nachomamma8

Not Voting (3) - Benmage, Johhog, Llamarble

Do something useful with your vote.

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Children of Húrin and AFFC.

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Tammy says I am wrong about you because you two have offsite experience.

That makes sense. This game certainly feels similar from my perspective.

Do you have any opinion on Nachos bad vote on Zach?

Yes. It is bad and furthers my belief that Nacho and 'marble are both scum.

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I was referring to the second game? I thought she followed that one at least. I don't really get how she'd come to the conclusion that I'm town based on that game.

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You asked how Ben found CES and TSQ scum together.
Ben said he didn't have an opinion on TSQ yet.
You quoted a reads list where he put CES, TSQ, Amrun, and Bub under "remainders" in red lettering.
He noted the "remainders".
But you couldn't take that because he colored them red. Not because he had townreads on everyone else and because there were not many of them there, but because they were in red.

How does Zach's alignment come into this, exactly?

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How in the world is going after Matias an "easy target"? You admit he's one of the towniest players, by far...would that not mean it would be even harder to convince people to lynch him?

He's very easy to attack though. I do think he's pretty townie but that's despite a bunch of things he did; I could fabricate a case on him, no problem.

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Nacho's activity level looks high compared to Nacho scum.

Do you think Nachoscum could afford not to be this active? The silly anti-Zach stuff is very much consistent with scum trying to force it a little.

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He was making up bullshit reasoning in order to make Ben look like a liar after he said he didn't call TSQ scum. I find that scummy.

You pretty much acknowledged that there were problems with what benmage was saying and stated that your problem was with what he chose to focus on (i.e. red text) which doesn't strike me as the sort of thing that'd be dependent on alignment.

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Anyway, all aboard the Llamarblewagon.

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Anyway, all aboard the Llamarblewagon.

But I'm already voting scum.

And voting town isn't counterproductive to my wc.

Your entire play here is counterproductive to a town win condition, so I'm sure you can spare us a vote.

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My #3 and #4 reads are also inactive fucks, 'marble, so what do you expect from me?

@CES...what do you think of Nacho's play today? You dropped Shea's push yesterday for Llamarble today...what's different now?

My read on that slot has only strengthened. But I've always had both of them as scum; I just went after Shea Yesterday because Llamarble didn't seem feasible.

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Town don't cop out to who is feasible instead of trying really hard to find the one person who :will: flip scum and lynching them though.

Weren't you complaining about me not being practical enough like 5 seconds ago? And I've learned my lesson with regards to what you're saying long ago; don't give me that idealist nonsense.

You are doing your CES be terse and snarky thing but there isn't townmind behind your path

Why is me being terse and snarky relevant? And do you see a scum mind behind my path?

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The path I don't like is instead of trying really hard to find the scummiest scumbag and lynch them and then compromising as lynchtime approached, you voted for the easier lynch on a lurker for a long time which had no votee to respond and made the day more boring. So you were practical about lynchchoice prematurely and impractical about helping smash things up / making the day useful.

I think keeping the pressure up on shea was plenty useful - certainly more useful than a lone vote on you or benmage (second vote on benmage, I think, but no meaningful associated pressure). It's not like I had shea that much lower on the totemscum pole either + pretty sure I got pretty close to grinding out a Shealynch.

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I'm assuming this means you find him equally, if not more, scummy...though maybe I shouldn't assume because clearly that upsets people >_>). Do you not feel a Nacho lynch is equally feasible today? What about his play do you find scummy?

Yeah, I find Llamarble slightly scummier (that's who you mean by "him", right?). Nacholynch is probably still feasible at deadline but otherwise I suspect a Nachowagon would be perceived as not going anywhere due to stuff. His attack on Zach seems very weak to me, especially the bit about the red text and how easily he dismissed the Zachtownteammafiameta argument.

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Why is me being terse and snarky relevant? And do you see a scum mind behind my path?

Do answer these too, 'marble.

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You're going through the same motions you usually go through as town, but instead of smashing things up you've been sitting your vote in places that weren't biting back because it's easier.

I would just ask you a similar question here. The first part here is unconnected to the second part; you're not drawing any conclusions from it but it's in there in some vague accusatory manner regardless.

Scum want to be on losing wagons that they can look like they legitimately believe in, and voting lurkers who are likely to show up and push the lynch away are good options for that.

I posit to you that the shealynch would've gone through if Amrun hadn't been V/LA at the end there, so I very much question the relevance of this.

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Are you just basing your meta calls off of games we've played together, 'marble?

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Did you read Marius and Sulla?

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How many of my scum games would you say you've read?

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I was expecting him to vote for Amrun if he had the chance though.

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I'd say it was 2 or 3 scumgames and 3 or 4 towngames, looking mainly at your ISOs except when figuring out what something was about.

You'd think Marius and Sulla would stand out then as the only recent scum game you would actually find. One after that is close to a year old; that's ages ago.

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So when you called them "recent scumgames" earlier, that was a symptom of you not really having put any effort into looking at my scum meta, right?

Also, regardless of which games you looked at exactly, I'm pretty sure my play this game would compare positively to scum games of mine from a year back.

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^ Semantic Bull Crap.
Recent as in I go search your topics and go through your games until I find a few where you were scum and a few where you were town. I remembered having to search for awhile after you reminded me.

"After" being the important word there; I would expect the inadequacy of the scum meta you found to be something you'd be aware of as town and maybe not so much as scum.

If anything this whole line of inquiry is a symptom of me not immediately going back and looking at the games again, which pretty much confirms me as town simply because I don't play off the top of my head as scum when I don't recall something clearly. When I'm scum, I am very good at reconstructing a clear thought process behind everything.
Townies who are voting me really need to vote actual scum.

I see no evidence that you didn't go back and look nor do I see why you'd expect trouble; you did do the meta research after all, no?

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Ugh, I am actually in danger of getting mislynched again.

You can still do the "post up a storm" thing if you're town, right? And why the "again" here?

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It wasn't inadequate, it just took a bit more time than usual to find, which wasn't something that stuck as an important part of the metaing experience. I was extremely unspecific about the metaing I did. Do you really believe I'd go back and look things up again and then give as minimal specifics as I did about it?

If you believe I'm scum here, then it's fairly obvious it's inadequate since my play here is distinctly different + year old meta is just not that reliable in general? And yes, I do believe that; it looks townier to look like you didn't look it up.

@Llamarble...what makes CES's vote/push on Shea any different than mine? I never once moved my vote after that and pushed rather consistently/hard, yet that doesn't seem to be a problem for you.

This argument was entirely retarded and I have explained why it was so. If you are unsatisfied then explain why and I shall go into greater detail.

? You answered this in #1002 and your answer was certainly meaningful enough to justify the question.

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Is quoting acting up for you?

Shallow scumhunting is the big one for me. Your reasoning has consistently been too simplistic. With respect to me specifically, but it already started with your first post. You have also felt off at times, pushed wrong wagons and I have barely see you try to engage me despite being your stated #1 suspect for significant parts of the game.

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I don't think your play here is as different as you seem to. Older meta isn't nonuseful.
You think that I went back and looked things up but did not notice that they happened a long time ago?? what?

I think the difference between my scum play then and now is bigger than the difference between my scum and town meta, so yeah. And I didn't say the latter.

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I've been on a lot of different wagons, now including both of your favorite ones other than me?

It's going to take more than a little distancing to get on my good side.

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A bit silly if you did both as part of plan, but doing the one first and then the other seems perfectly viable.

I am not seeking to get on your good side.
I am pointing out that you saying my wagon choices have been bad doesn't make a lot of sense.
What beyond OMGUS did you mean when you said that?

I do very much count the Amrunwagon against you. From my perspective you most definitely have been an anti-town force this game.

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Dr Who isn't insanely long ago and you have several behaviors that felt like here.
Snarky terse posting, 'nope' type posts, a scumteam call, and some vote yup let's lynch x stuff.
I didn't get any "Oh I'm wrong about this he doesn't do his townie things here as scum" from your meta so much as 'ok this pretty much fits with what he can fake', which is most of what I use meta for.

That scum team call was totally not meant to be serious. I guess it'd be adequate if you were just looking to see if I could fake my tone but shouldn't that knowledge have osmosised its way into your brain before? It's kinda obvious given how long I've played at 'scum too.

Zach's mafia world looks different than that. You are thinking about things instead of distilling down to the most basic things that you do. Certainly more different from your play this game than Dr Who.

You should be the most well-placed to notice that I very much have been thinking about things. But this "distilling down to the most basic things that

do" is something I did back then as scum, much more than now.

Also, regardless of which games you looked at exactly, I'm pretty sure my play this game would compare positively to scum games of mine from a year back.

Wait, why?

I had a more unrefined bandwagonny "I don't care, people can't read me anyway" scum style back then.

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P.S. the notion that MoS being on benmage's team is somehow incongruous with him being useless is nonsensical. And the person I'd most expect to care would be benmage if he were scum.

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Llamarble, question: you've kept your vote on me for significant periods of time - what was it supposed to accomplish?

Maybe I Obama Peaceprized a bit on Benmage, but my point was that I have not just picked my favorite of the day's viable wagons and attempted to make a lynch out of it but rather have come to my own conclusions and tried to force them through. Benmage wagon had one vote when I joined it.

And yet it was the most viable counterwagon to your lynch you could've joined.

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Regfan dying makes sense from almost anybody, which is about the extent of what you've said D2.

Forgot this earlier: yes, any scum could've killed him, but a scum team containing you definitely would've killed him. A simple application of Bayes' Theorem gives us the desired conclusion. You should know this.

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You should start a counterwagon on Nacho, 'marble - his lurking actually is scummy and shea having picked White Flag actually is meaningful.

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It's no fun if you make your partnership that obvious, nacho...

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Wait now u think Im scum CES?

Nachomarble is what I was talking about.

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Benmage's lurklurklurk oh I'm town for lurking because as scum I would care is BS.
HE CLAIMED HE PICKED THIS GAME BECAUSE HE WANTED A SKILL CHALLENGE / pure scumhunting.
I don't see following that up with not even trying to play the game.
Lurking as scum is horrible but lurking as town is fine? No.

Q1: do you think he's strategically lurking?
Q2: do you think he cares more as scum or as town?

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I'm not writing benmage off, Nacho. I prefer the Llamarblewagon and I think the arguments being levelled against benmage right now are silly. (The buddying 'marble charge was somewhat reasonable though.)

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It's not one post, it's all of his recent posts. He's not posting anything at all. He's just throwing down the self-meta card over and over again, and acting like he just can't believe it when we don't buy the bullshit. That's not town posting. At all.

Benmage totally does that regardless of alignment, I'm pretty sure.

CES, who's your third pick right now?

Technically Socio, but benmage in a practical sense.

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If you can give me one reason why Benmage is town that's not "oh, he'd do better as scum", I will switch my vote here and now.

offer still stands, CES.

Llamarble doesn't look like he's bussing, natch.

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Have you considered just blindly sheeping Regfan, Nacho? He's pretty okay at this game.

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I think most people care a lot about team mafia.
I think Benmage cares about this game and chose to coast and cash in on the 'more active as scum' card.
He certainly has showed up when poked, which is exactly what MoI expected himscum to do.
I have played to cash in on differences between my town/scum meta before, and that's what I think he is doing.

That doesn't sound very benmagey.

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The notion that Regfan'd get nightkilled while being wrong about all of you, Llamarble and benmage is silly, Nacho.

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The trouble with fighting for human freedom is that one spends most of one's time defending scoundrels. For it is against scoundrels that oppressive laws are first aimed, and oppression must be stopped at the beginning if it is to be stopped at all.[/relevantH.L.Menckenquote]

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We probably should. It's how the previous White Flag was lost and it seems awfully unfair of us to not let the scum kill indiscriminately. (Hint: town generally doesn't do better than random lynchingwise in mountainous because of the ability on the scum's part to kill the right part.)

I don't know. I can see that the scumkill makes sense from Llama's perspective. But if you're killing Reg for his reads, why kill him if he's right about 1/3?

If Llama is scum and benmage is town, he wouldn't be?

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We have cookies.

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Zach, as it stands, Benmage won't be lynched without Nacho, 'marble and Sociopath uniting. Llamarble doesn't look like he's bussing nor does Nacho, although to a lesser extent. Make the right call.

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Benmage or 'marble, Socio. Pick a side.

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If I were scum with benmage and Nacho and you were both town, I'd probably have pushed for a kill among {Matias, Zachrulez}. If you have a strong player like Regfan who looks like he's going to be pushing mislynches for you, why wouldn't you let him?

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A Matias or Zach lynch is more conceivable than a Regfan lynch, and Regfan is one of the few people with enough clout to get somebody like you lynched.

I think you're ignoring the Regfanparanoia angle.

Also Regfan was wrong about his top scumread yesterday, so it's fairly likely he'd have rethought things.

Being wrong about people is just part of the game. Especially on Day 1.

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Llamarble, question: you've kept your vote on me for significant periods of time - what was it supposed to accomplish?

Could you answer this question now, 'marble?

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I've attacked and annoyed a lot of different people including hard to lynch don't-want-them-after-you players like CES.

P.S. this presumes that I'm town, which is weird if I'm your #1 suspect.

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I was trying to lynch you, obviously.

And yet you've made 2 arguments now in which you implicitly acknowledged that that was never going to happen.

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I hope so too.