TM2012: White Flag Mafia (Game Over)

[Captain Falcon]

Hello, my friends and enemies

I have just a few things to say
I am a Captain, here to stay
With moves like fire
a killer desire
No wonder the scum won't come out and play
Afraid of my prowess, they hide and quiver
My sheer presence makes them

SHIVER

[Captain Falcon]

BTW I picked this game because I had a great experience last year and I like the setup.

That's not what

I

think.

[Captain Falcon]

Actually, my reasoning could fall under his umbrella term "I like the setup", but I will oblige you Zach.

LLamarble is an intelligent player. He is also a good player, touting an impressive win to loss ratio, and even going as far as listing himself an 8 or a 9 in terms of player skill. Although I can't find the thread, I remember his explanation of the reason vividly. Essentially, LLmarble's definition of a good player is the rate of turnaround when replacing into a slot. Turning a bad slot into a protown slot that lives to endgame is one of his primary criteria for viewing another player as "good".

Llmarble's cockiness is just the type of thing that would lead me to believe he chose scum again (given the option). However, that rests on the question - did he have the option? Given his play, I think so.

[Captain Falcon]

I haven't really had the time to devote a read through of this game and there is sparse QT talk of this game in my Team QT so I'll need a little more time.

I do have some opinions.

Socio, why did you refuse to answer Amrun's post about chosing this game? The answer to this question last year, and I'll quote it is much more comforting about your alignment than the one you gave this year.

The mountainous setup is one that is pretty generally stated as being unbalanced for town.
I feel this is bullshit and people keep relying on power roles and using them as a crutch.
There is nothing more pure than actually having to use your words and rely on that instead of waiting around for silly night actions.
Or hiding behind soft claims, or bread crumbs, or cryptography, or other silly nonsense.
Even though this game waters it down a bit with its non-needing of killing the last scum.
So I picked this game for a sense of proof, to show what can be done.
Considering I've won mountainous games in the past, and that was to the last scum dead.
So playing as scum in this game would be counter-productive the point, and would only re-enforce the negative lighting.

In fact your whole play last year seems to be a lot more powerful, energetic, and eager. Your play here is almost the complete opposite of the vigor you had. It is sending off warning bells because you haven't expressed hard feelings of realistically wanting to get anyone lynched and your current vote on Johhog, what are you even trying to accomplish? The comments you made when placing the vote indicate it is mainly for pressure, is my impression correct? Are you intentions still for pressure?

Vote Count 1.26

Amrun (3) - Johhog, Captain Falcon, Regfan
Cogito Ergo Sum (3) - Benmage, Thestatusquo, Llamarble

Johhog (3) - SocioPath, Matias, Amrun

Thestatusquo (3) - singersigner, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez

Zachrulez (1) - Bub Bidderskins

Not Voting (0)

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, May 21, 2012, at 12:00 AM EDT (UTC-4).[/area]

The two wagons I have demarcated are probably the worst ones I have ever seen considering who they are on.

Johhog

and

Zachrulez

. Seriously? Considering who is on each of the wagons I am decidedly even more displeased. However, I do have some opinions.

All people on the Johhog wagon need to choose a new wagon. There is zero chance that Johhog will flip scum in my mind. The makeup of his team would not allow for the setup the requires the best scumhunting/manipulative prowess to rest on Johhog. I am sorry if this comes off as rude, Johhog, but you have just come back from a retirement and I think it would be incredibly dangerous for your team to choose you as a scum member in White Flag if your team was given the option.

That brings me to my next point.

All members of Team Mafia, across all games, please state the strength of your team's desire to win on a scale from 1 - 10. Please forward this to your teammates and the other players in the games that I am not able to comment on and then please relay them back to me. This does have a purpose. If you could all do this at earliest convenience, I would appreciate it.

Zach's wagon is equally as bad, if not worse. The people advocating a lynch or a flash lynch should end this needless pressure on Zach. Like Johhog, there is zero chance that Zach is scum given the makeup of his team and the fact that Zach plays a visibly worse scumgame and has expressed dislike of scum publicly.

Bub's vote on Zach is very bad and in fact, Bub is my main suspect from the sparse things that I have read. I'll explain further in another post, but the insistence on Zach scum is stupid along with his interactions with the most common lynch suspects are my main reasons why I suspect Bub.

Other suspects include CES, Socio, and LLmarble.

I don't know how I feel about Amrun, but Haddock seemed pretty certain on her being scum in the team QT.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bub Bidderskins

Color tag fixed. (Equinox)

[Captain Falcon]

Equinox, could you fix my color tag fail in my quote of your votecount?

[Captain Falcon]

I'm going to be unavailable tonight to make the post.

Johhog, I won't reveal who I am just yet in order to make sure people don't have prejudice or be swayed, but I will reveal before deadline.

Bub, it is a wagon. A fail wagon that has no wheels yet, and it better stay that way, but people are making attempts to start the wagon and I am not going to let that happen.

[Captain Falcon]

I'm putting this at the top of my post because I think it is the most important, across all games of Team Mafia. Please, all of you, tell your teammates, so that everyone involved in Team Mafia will respond.

I want on a scale of 1 - 10 the degree of intensity that you all wish to win. This will help all towns in all of the games determine how likely a team is going to give a member a scum role. I know this is playing into the "meta" of people choosing town versus people choosing scum, but it is a simple request and will help every town navigate the complexities of the role distribution and the team's choices on who will represent them in what game.

Please do this at the earliest convenience!

Spoiler: Wall of Death, sorry!

vote: CES

1. Bandwagon inflation
2. Not doing anything to try and get of RVS

Discuss.

How is 1 not accomplishing 2? This is an illogical argument. Bub's probably town for it, though.

Hell, you could go back at anytime and review the game itself. That scumteam was nominated for a scummy. There's plenty of reason to believe that Llamarble was going to be wagoned.

I really agree with Matias on this one. Anyone that played in last year's White Flag (me, Matias, singer very briefly), have an absolutely bone to pick with Llamarble.

I played in White Flag because I have been trying to erase that game from existence all year and I really need to replace it with better memories. So if we lose, I hate everyone who is town. Basically.

CES is being cagey and it makes me uncomfortable. Not sure why he's so avidly attacking early reads. What is so bad about Llamarble's Haddock read?

I like it, actually.

VOTE: Captain Haddock

p-edit: I wonder if this will be repeat of last year and I'll catch scum for how they attack Matias/DH.

I generally disagree with almost everything in this post. So much that I just want to take my F-zero skills and drive the fuck away.

First she gives Bub some town points for stating very bad reasoning as his suspicion of CES. I'm sorry?

Like I said previously, about Bub and CES, they both are applying soft pressure to each other without ever really sticking to an opinion. Amrun also fits this bill, especially with this post.

Amrun states that anyone who was in WF last year has a reason to be suspicious of Llmarble. Why? Because he chose scum and the scumteam
cleverly deceived the rest of the town. I can only assume that Amrun would continue to have suspicion of Llmarble given his play last year after that comment, yet she likes his read on my predecessor.

Her reasoning for choosing this game is also peculiar as she specifically picked this game to erase bad memories from last year. Wouldn't you rather choose a game so far from this one so you wouldn't have to relive the same experiences? I don't understand the logic behind this and it just seems like filler to a question *Llmarble* asked.

Her comment on CES is just like the suspicion that Bub is trying to apply to CES. Noncommittal and more generally soft accusations, not to mention her smarmy pedit in response to Singer voting Matias. I have a question Amrun, did you include CES's FoS on Matias into your "I'm gonna catch scum suspecting Matias" statement?

I feel like everyone should have volunteered this information, yes, but since it was never made a point of, I don't feel like the people who did not are scummy, especially considering they're mostly newbies to team mafia.

Consider this me asking everyone why they chose this game.

So you think scum Matias would purposely draw attention to himself? Why?

And can you show me where you think he's tooting his own horn? I don't see that.

Yes, just like Llmarble started the game last year. Asking everyone why they chose this game and who their partners were.

I thought you had a bone to pick and bad memories to replace?

I like very vanilla setups. Themes and roles and crap bust my balls.

Is that why the only Open game on your wiki was one you replaced into? And even then it was hardly vanilla like this game? You chose this game ... an open game... over Closed Normal and Almost Normal, but you barely ever play in Opens?

You're also telling me that, given your proclaimed Town loss stagnation, that your team felt confident enough to give you a town game, reliant on the sole aspect of scumhunting, ignoring your above average winrate as scum?

I have relatively strong town reads on Zach and Singer at the moment and a weaker ones on Bub and Captain. I don't find Matias plan as scummy, I think he'd do it regardless of his alignment. I do find his 'the question of the day is if you made it up or not, if you did you're scum' rant as scummy though, especially with it followed by 'leaving it for now'. Slaxx has told me he can read Matias like a book though so I'll wait for his thoughts.

I agree for the most part with this paragraph, except I have reservations on that last line. I've seen another one of your teammates use very similar wording. I can't go any further, but your teammate should definitely not be having trouble with the person that can be "read as a book". I'm trying to gauge whether or not you should either...

I think relaying information from the QT is fine in doses. The only real thought on the playerlist that Slaxx/my team-mates stated pre-game was that he thought you'd be more likely to rejoin this setup as scum rather than town considering how last year went down.

Ladies and gentlemen, Regfan and Slaxx win the prize of 5 minutes in my F-zero racer.

That's weird, because when we voted internally White Flag was on the bottom of both his and mine lists. To avoid flipping a coin though I volunteered, I decided that MetaMafia was too hard for me as I'm recently back to this site.

This is why no sane team would ever give a totally skill reliant setup to a recently returned player.

@RegFan: Can you find that comment from Isa anywhere?

This is Amrun trying to push an early Johhog wagon. Fortunately it fell flat on its face at that time.

Slaxx has a strong town read on DH. He's pretty positive that Scum-DH wouldn't post #114 and I agree with him there. I also found DHs comments about his team QT discussion to be a minor town-tell. The only thing we disagree with at the moment is our read on Amrun.

Yup. This part of your team is town.

Your vote on Llamarble was terrible in general. Why do you think it wouldn't apply to you?

It doesn't apply to me because I always place my vote on the biggest bandwagon at the beginning of a game. Purest meta null tell you're likely to find.

Uhh... I'm not following. You've only proven that you do it as both alignments and if he thinks it is scummy that should be fine.

Speaking of which, after Matias explained his logic to me, his early game actions make a lot more sense. Yeah, he was grasping at straws if he hoped to get any scum suspects, but it was the RVS, and those straws were scum. For that I think he's likely town.

Also, Amrun brought up an intersting thing about Haddock:

Why the fuck is their play so damn similar (between Amrun and Bub)? Bub's over justification of Matias as town is suspicious as normally I feel scum are likely to over justify their votes.

Oh, right, forgot. my bad.

You certainly aren't trying to forget memories in this year's game are you?

I got some 'GO LYNCH ZACH' from my QT.
QT also thinks CES town, Singer town, Bub probtown, Johhog scum.

Your QT is retarded. :troll:

How is 1 not accomplishing 2? This is an illogical argument. Bub's probably town for it, though.

Hrm, I think this comes from scum SLIGHTLY more often than it comes from town.
And I do feel a little buddied by Amrun.
I wish Flash IV hadn't been eaten by the tigers.

I believe she is.

Bub has a history of making illogical arguments as town.

So now the truth comes out, why don't you present this information upfront when you first apply the read?

Bub has a history of making illogical arguments as town.

That's more true than I'd like .

Llamarble, why does your QT think Zach is scum? I've got a pretty strong town read on him.

Oh, and CooLDoG wants everybody to stop using bullshit meta on last years game .

I repeat my previous statement - why you, if you're town, to represent your team?

FoS: Johhog

Fishing around for views on self instead of scum. This most is mainly just a defense asking for reasons why people think he's scum. Also, Johhog's vote has been parked on Benmage long passed its welcome. He's given no follow up pressure or reasoning behind his vote that I can see. His posts have mainly been weak questions without follow up or anything.

As a player who is seen as scummy regardless of alignment, people just handing out suspicions on you is quite annoying, not to mention, scum will often try to save you for a mislynch. Getting suspicions in "print" form is vital to later game analysis once scum have to actually *make* an assertion and stick to their opinion. Right now scum are most likely trying to keep their options open for potential mislynches (i.e. Johhog).

Shea-benmage-Llamarble is the scum team.

You don't have the right to say things like this without backing up your assertions. I know this will be hard, but why?

Johhog's townieness shines through in his Team Mafia-related dealings. He's not scum.

The first one to announce this, why are you so certain?

Also not feeling Johhoq-scum, just Johhoq-useless.

Not voting TSQ just for not posting.

Scum already building their town reads on people most likely to be lynched. Classic.

The depressing thing though, is that we LOST last years White Flag mafia as well.
So may that as it may, I am not going to make the same mistakes twice.

After reading this post in context and his answer to my original question I feel like Socio is likely town.

I really don't think what you're doing right now is pro-town, but you're town, so I'll just let you do whatever you want to do.

In my opinion this is not like Amrun town. I've seen her be much more aggressive to townreads she views as dumb/seeing her as scum and this whole post looks like it is capitulating to Regfan in order to not step on his toes and indirectly buddy him. :\

Your Amrunscumread sucks, Regfan.

Honestly, when I get these ideas of teammates and then things like this start happening I get scarred that I am very horribly wrong and seeing only what I want to see. >_> I know there is a wagon on CES + Amrun right now, but why aren't people seeing the same scumminess that I see in Bub? :\

Here's where I'm at:

Conftown via truth tells
Benmage
Zachrulez
singersigner

Most town looking
Regfan
Matias
Llamarble
Johhog

Other reasoning
SocioPath
Captain Haddock

Remainder:
Thestatusquo
Amrun
Bub Bidderskins
Cogito Ergo Sum

I want to have little Captain Falcon babies with you.

Show me your moves!

Socio, what are your thoughts on Haddock

Looking at him isn't as important as looking at his wagon.
He is much finer than those that vote him.

and Jahudo?

Johhog

, the way he responds to poking is going to be the determining factor here.

I just realized that

And who on his wagon looks interesting to you? Come on Socio, get in the game here.

I really can't read Amrun, so I'm asking my QT for help. I relay that info back, but either way I think Haddock and Amrun are not scum together. Amrun started the whole wagon on Haddock. I don't see scum doing that on a buddy.

A little bit of Monica all night long
A little bit of Amrun to sing this song

A little bit of posturing here and there
Bub is scum caught in his underwear

Out of all the things that have happened, Benmage listing him as scum, Regfan's lists, and so forth. There was a lot of new information to be discussed, but Bub conveniently ignores it.

vote: haddock

Bub makes this very big post saying that he still does not agree with other people saying Haddock is town, and votes him to prove his still confident in this slot being scum. However, when I was skimming through the thread, he eventually just drops this line of suspicion onto someone else? I don't believe it and I'll make another comment once I read through more of the thread, but that is one thing that definitely stuck out in my mind.

How do you reconcile that that scumteam doesn't make sense from play?

Say what? You just supported Bub stating that CES + Haddock are possibly a team. Are you dimissing this based on the fact that you were included by Marble? I think you are and that is scummy as fuck.

Walls happen.

Meanwhile Benmage continues to set off alarm bells in my head and TSQ continues to provide nothing of value.

I find Benmage to be a difficult person to read (and I'm mostly blinded by my infatuation with our similar reads sans TSQ), why is he sending off alarm bells?

Scum: Thestatusquo, benmage, Llamarble
Back-up scum: Bud Bibberskins, Captain Haddock, Amrun

Again I repeat myself, Amrun just said marble's case was bad listing you, her, and my slot. You said the case that Bub made was silly yet you list Haddock as backup scum.

You also list a lurker, who has *no* game posts as scum, and the two people who have named you as scum with basically all the people you've listed as scum.

What the fuck is that CES.

I'm not going to quote the interaction between Singer and Amrun on page 14 because I feel it can go without saying. Singer brought up some legitimate points about the TSQ argument and Amrun responded super defensively. she hides behind the fact that her team is discussing something which may or may not break rules and then goes on to apologize to Singer again, in what looks like a capitulating move to a commonly held townread.

I intend for my reads to be static throughout the game.

Why is your scumhunting so shallow, 'marble?

Do you really think you are that good that you don't have to change your reads and that you are right the first time? What will happen if none of those people you've listed as scum ever flip as scum?

I will be fucking pissed off if we lynch a lurker on D-1. Here's what we do, we lynch scum today, then TSQ gets the night to read back up on this game. If he doesn't post anything worthwhile, then we can start lynching him. But as for right now, a lynch on TSQ is stupid and easy and anti-town.

This reads as completely fucking ungenuine in my opinion.

Matias's fail with regards to Amrun "lying" is disconcerting and has made me suspicious of that slot as well as overall weakening my read on Amrun since that resposne seemed very town + it supports her further meta opinions.

:\

That said, Regfan's analysis of Amrun stating she has many scumreads rings true and I feel that Regfan is very likely town.

Right now, I'm really not feeling the Amrun wagon. It seems mainly based on an off-hand comment she made that doesn't really mean anything. I'd much prefer a Haddock or Johhog lynch.

Just like you don't prefer the lynch on TSQ as well but advocate if he is still lurking to get him tomorrow. Bub still at this point has suspicions of this slot and wants a lynch on it.

I didn't comment on a lot of stuff in between now as I feel like I would just be rehashing the same point over and over again. People already hate it when I do this and if my wall doesn't give you an indication of who I am to those of you who have played with me, shame on you.

In other news: my team and I are pretty on board with similar town reads, and that's awesome.

Kublai Kahn thinks Sociopath's noncontribution is bullshit and he deserves to be lynched for it, or voted until he stops.

Good thing we will never know what those reads since you don't like them/won't post them. Does Kublai also think that TSQ's lurking is bullshit?

Because your suspicion of TSQ and your statement that you all have similar town reads would say your team thinks TSQ is scum.

How can you possibly narrow down to just 5 possible subjects in 20 pages? You either are the most fantastic scum hunter that ever lived, or you are willfully blinding yourself to other possibilities.

>_>

<_<

... >_>

Reg, I don't buy that Johhog is town this game. If the ONLY reason why Johhog is town is because of his preference for non-scum, that isn't enough.

I generally agree with that it isn't enough, but I stand behind my assertion that it is very unlikely Johhog is scum as I have said earlier.

But he is posting content, and the fact that you are suspicious of him

now

that he has posted content more than before when he wasn't is either stupid or scummy or both. To say that TSQ isn't posting content now is disingenuous and reeks of scum trying to preserve what once was an easy wagon.

unvote; vote: Johhog

Funny how he went from dead certain that Haddock was scum to wanting a lynch on Haddock and Johhog to voting Johhog. I do not think Bub is town in the slightest. I think he is trying to setup for the best availability of a mislynch and Matias's suspicions + rebuttal against Regfan was the motivation and the spark that Bub needed to jump onto Johhog.

No mention of my slot at all when he made this post.

Try reading things, Bud.

Man, you're right .

Johhog spent so much time making up bullshit arguments for his null-scum read that I didn't even realize that his actual scumread was Amrun, who he was busy putting exactly zero pressure on. My bad!

Yup. You aren't going to get out of this one trying to play that opportunism away.

I want Bub blood only because I feel he is the most likely to flip scum out of Amrun + CES + Bub. However, I can't really say I'm not happy with the the wagons on CES and Amrun either.

Also, if you guys are annoyed that I posted this huge ass wall well I condensed it to a reread wall + scumreads wall to save time and effort on my part and the fact that reading three probably shorter walls is a lot worse than just one big one. I'm sorry in advance.

I don't agree, but okay.

Shea/TSQ, please don't give into Amrun's appeal/defense of you. I'm putting this down as buddying.

She was scummy before the comment and one person was voting for her. She was scummy after the comment, and four people are voting for her for stuff she did before the comment. Do you see the problem I have with this wagon? All those reasons could have been used earlier but they weren't, because Amrun wasn't a convenient wagon then.

Okay, this is idiotic. No one and I mean no one who voted Amrun voted her even partially because of 'any specific comment' yet you INSIST that it's the case. Sure, some of the reasons for voting her could have been used to vote her earlier but that doesn't negate the strength or validity of them been put forward later, nor does it make the votes that followed it suspicious in any way.

Fine, just explain to me how Amrun got three more votes within 24 hours.

Defending TSQ like no other to defending Amrun while forgoing trying to get his scumread lynched. In my opinion, if Bub was town he would try to push his own scumread as a counter to Amrun's WHILE he was defending Amrun/trying to shut down her wagon.

CES' reasons for voting TSQ are lol fail.

@Reg: give me one non-meta reason why Johhog is not scum. Just one.

Add another one to the Bub - CES - Amrun connection Triangle.

unvote

I did a re-read of Johhog's iso, and for some fucking reason he looks town to me now. The main reason I thought he was scummy was because he didn't pressure any of his scum suspects. But looking back at his votes, none of them looked like scum votes. Scum either A) want to start a mislynch wagon or B) try to hop on an easy wagon unnoticed. Johhog's two votes were a random vote on Benmage that he later stuck with and a vote on Amrun when nobody was voting for Amrun. He didn't add much pressure to his vote, but he didn't use his vote in a scum-motivated way.

I feel like he actually thought that Benmage and Amurn were scum at the time. And then there's the meta stuff that Reg brought up. I think he may just be town...

Oh my fucking god. This post sends shivers down my spine. I cannot even begin to describe the feeling of how artificial and forced the "feelings" conveyed in this post look. Bub hopped onto Johhog's wagon once others signaled intent to vote him, was pointed out that the reasoning he used to vote Johhog was not entirely correct, and it took him until now to unvote. Not to mention, he again overjustifies, this time moving off Johhog's wagon once it becomes clear the Johhog's wagon is going to go nowhere. The last line is killer and the "I think he may just be town..." is definitely a posturing move in order to buy some more time until other desirable lynches (i.e. not on CES + Amrun, his buddies) present themselves.

unvote; vote: Zach

Why are you voting for somebody that you aren't sure is scum four days until deadline. I really don't like how your vote has been parked on the easiest wagon to get on.

Shit tastic vote and just a way for Bub to buy more time before he has to make an actual committment on which teammate he should be voting for between CES and Amrun.

Zach is town. Without a doubt. Bub is applying fake pressure to look active, hoping that an alternative will pop up.

This is when I replace in.

tl;dr

Amrun, Bub, and CES are the scumteam.

Their interactions with each other are all passive attempts at applying suspicion and they each in turn seem to defend each other in a cycle

Ideally I would get my Bub lynch but I will be voting for Amrun at deadline

[Captain Falcon]

Singer, get off your plz.

Show me your moves!

Amrun, Bub, and CES are the scumteam.

Their interactions with each other are all passive attempts at applying suspicion and they each in turn seem to defend each other in a cycle

So what you're saying is that that Amrun-Bub-CES is definitely not the scum team?

I was going to respond to points in Falcon's wall but bleh, too much inanity to deal with.

More votes for shea.

Erm, no. You each in turn are applying minor pressure as well as defending each other, but never the same person at the same time. I have seen scum do this as a way to distance.

Maybe I won't reveal who I a really am...

Llmarble, why is Bub town?

I am going to keep repeating myself until you bastards tell me how much each team wants to win.

[Captain Falcon]

Would take a Benmage or Llamarble lynch failing that. Any other wagon is a meh/avoid no lynch wagon.

This makes me think Amrun is scum with zach.

Will you answer Regfan's questions please?

Reg, that was what I was thinking with Socio too. Regardless of his alignment, he would have chosen this game. I can see two possibilities with Socio's play.

He drew scum in this game and is deciding to play like a wounded allstar from last year's game
or
He drew town and is playing close to the vest so he isn't offed the first night

From rereading what he is posting, and his statement for choosing this game last year, I think he is town.

I can also not comment on anything with regards to your book comment without potentially getting a point infraction. I'm sorry I even brought it up.

My stance on Llmarble is still a minor scumread although I haven't exactly expressed as much. I don't see Llmarble as one to just give into another wagon when he has been saying scum CES for a very long time, but he hasn't exactly been trying to push for that wagon.

He votes for Amrun using Haddock + your logic as basis for the vote while having her in a "reread" category of his scumlist. His "woe is me" comment about getting a new read on people every time he reads through feels forced too. After he feels better about Amrun he goes back to CES only to once again move back to Amrun basically sheeping you and going off the assumption that CES scum doesn't want Amrunscum to die.

I'm curious what his Bub read is and why he thinks Bub is town.

[Captain Falcon]

By the way, if it isn't obvious, I am Oversoul.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Amrun

I definitely will not be able to make a vote around the time of deadline so this is going to stay.

Amrun is

L-2

.

[Captain Falcon]

Ya, that Llamafluff comparison surprised me. He is a good player so I will take that as a compliment.

[Captain Falcon]

Ok. I was not expecting Regfan to die considering his major push for Amrun with relatively minor suspects in Marble and TSQ... Since this is the super smart analysis club , I am going to ask everyone, what are the chances that every team has only gotten 1 scum role? What are the chances that team has gotten no scum role? What are the chances that a team got 2 scum roles? These questions aren't really pertinent to any game in particular, but I consider you guys to be the best able to answer it and it could be helpful down the road...

Socio, now that you have lived past Day 1, do you have any other input?

VOTE: Llmarble

Marble, can you clarify the comments your teammates made in 580? Specifically Grey's comments about "not liking" people like Singer's 407?

Also, please explain your Bub townread.

[Captain Falcon]

[quote="In post 748, Captain Falcon"][/quote]

I especially want this answered now that LLD has flipped Scum and its implications on Llmarble. Although I am sure I am being naive in believing this type of analysis could lead somewhere.

[Captain Falcon]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: CES

[Captain Falcon]

Given Shea's opinion on Mafia and this site, I'm honestly not at all surprised he is playing the way he is. Also, more Team Meta, but knowing TSQ's history I know I personally would not give him a scumrole. It is just asking for unnecessary attention.

I didn't read Singer's response before voting, but I really don't want to waste another cycle lynching Shea for "lying" and generally lurking. CES, you mentioned that Regfan dying is a sign pointing to Llmarble, why is that?

[Captain Falcon]

But, on that note, my scumread on Haddock is lessening. I like Captain Falcon so far, and even though I know it doesn't matter at all, I can't help but feel less passion for that Ajax flipped scum. I'm trying to reason myself with statistics that I know. I did think Haddock's replace out was a minor town tell, though.

There are scenarios where team mates flipping scum or town would be meaningful, but I really don't see how Captain Ajax's alignment is supposed to be linked to Captain Falcon's. It's null.

CES. Rectify this statement in terms of what your teammates have stated within the last 4 hours with relation to this specific tell.

My vote is now even more justified the fact that you can come to different conclusions regarding the same topic.

[Captain Falcon]

CES. Rectify this statement in terms of what your teammates have stated within the last 4 hours with relation to this specific tell.

I think it's mostly null with a team like Captain's. Like I said, you need to have beliefs about how the team assigns its role PMs before you can really draw meaningful conclusions from it.

And where did you say this exactly?

[Captain Falcon]

CES. Rectify this statement in terms of what your teammates have stated within the last 4 hours with relation to this specific tell.

I think it's mostly null with a team like Captain's. Like I said, you need to have beliefs about how the team assigns its role PMs before you can really draw meaningful conclusions from it.

And where did you say this exactly?

I was referring to the comment you quoted. ("There are scenarios where team mates flipping scum or town would be meaningful, but I really don't see how Captain Ajax's alignment is supposed to be linked to Captain Falcon's. It's null.")

Yup.

You die.

Confirm vote: CES

[Captain Falcon]

I can't explain without point deductions.

Let me just say CES has two different opinions.

[Captain Falcon]

Yes, but you are using that reasoning to say that I am null for an Ajax flip whereas I have evidence that you don't think Ajax's flip is entirely null.

I noticed you did this with Llmarble too as if you are undermining any out of game towniness so you wouldn't have to deal with "confirmed" people in a set up that normally wouldn't give "confirms".

I let that slide but recent revelations indicate to me that you are applying this logic as you want it to suit you.

[Captain Falcon]

I basically have a problem with how you can say Ajax flipping is a null in relation to me (when I don't think so at all) but then say something else that I cannot bring up for fear of rule breaking.

[Captain Falcon]

I don't see how what I said is breaking the rules when others in this very game have said they have evidence that they cannot talk about and used that logic to vote someone.

I am done talking about it and if I do take a point infraction for what I said and for the sake of catching scum I will take the infraction.

[Captain Falcon]

I went about this after talking to Zoraster and based my respOnse on the way others handled a similar situation in the same way. If I am punished for that then I am going to ask for those people to be punished as well.

Pedit: I think CES is tryin to get me to say something that will get me in trouble

[Captain Falcon]

Zach I think you are town. Don't do this. Wait and see how Equinox and Zor handle this (I don't see the big deal since I am dealing with vagueries and in game stuff only)

[Captain Falcon]

But you should. Either in honest gameplay or in winning Team Mafia.

[Captain Falcon]

Where we're you yesterday when I wanted to kill Bub, Socio?

Do you have any opinion on CES because I want Dutch blood today.

I will admit Matias was a source I contention in early QT talk when Haddock was still around.

[Captain Falcon]

Nope.jpg

I can see why you got Smooth Operator, holy shit.

[Captain Falcon]

I hate math.

[Captain Falcon]

Opinion on Socio being less likely scum since Spy flipped scum?

[Captain Falcon]

CES, have you ever been town in a game we played together?

Children of Hurin?

Llmarble, where are you and why is Bub town?

[Captain Falcon]

Tammy says I am wrong about you because you two have offsite experience.

Do you have any opinion on Nachos bad vote on Zach?

[Captain Falcon]

She says you were scum in that game... And she was town.

In what way was it similar?

[Captain Falcon]

Benmage, anything else?

[Captain Falcon]

I was referring to the second game? I thought she followed that one at least. I don't really get how she'd come to the conclusion that I'm town based on that game.

She says you aren't being manipulative like you were in that scum game.

[Captain Falcon]

why do you think zach is town?

I think I've already explained this, but I'll say it again since you just replaced in.

How far along with your read through are you?

Anyway, I think Zach is town because I, Oversoul, just played a game with Zach where we were both scum. He announced in the QuickTopic that he hated playing scum because he was generally worse as scum than town. He lurked as scum and postured when he did rarely post which caused others in the town to suspect him. He stated he finds being scum stressful which is something he didn't like.

Zach isn't lurking in this game and he is taking stances on people. In addition, given the option to play scum, or to not play scum, I highly doubt Zach would take the chance of being scum

Also on the OMGUS issue, I was voting TSQ most of the first day phase, and I haven't backed off on calling the slot scum... so OMGUS... right.

Seriously Bub... if you are town here, this is why you lose games.

welp, Bub's town.

This is faulty logic and continues on the path of no one really explaining why Bub is town.

Are you basing this comment on the fact that you think Zach is scum?

I'm tired of people using ~reasons unknown~ to either vote for someone or call them scummy (Amrun did this yesterday). If that's the only thing you have going for you and you can't even explain it, then how is that ANY better than someone who places an empty vote?

They aren't reasons unknown and I've already eluded to the reasoning, but I was warned which is why I am now being cryptic.

My teammate thinks I am wrong about the CES read anyway and admittedly my vote is primarily based on the "unknown" reason.

Though I do agree with wondering why Llamarble felt the need to specify that he could provide "proof" of his absence...

I third that notion.

VOTE: Llmarble

[Captain Falcon]

I also ask Nacho and Zach to stop cross voting since that accomplishes nothing and is flooding the thread with ego driven walls.

[Captain Falcon]

Zach, do you have recent scum meta of you as a lone wolf?

Please stop intentionally or unintentionally ignoring my questions.

What does this mean? A game where I was the only remaining scum? You'd have to go WAY back if that's what you're asking.

Where you were scum as Zachrulez, and not hydraing with Sotty.

For the record, Paranoia Mafia, Sotty never posted in the Scum QT and Zach said that he would be alone, but left the chance open for Sotty to join if she felt like it.

Sotty at that time had also proclaimed she was not going to join anymore games so that supports my belief.

I don't know if they discussed the game outside of the quicktopic though.

Damn it!

Alt slip and prodded. I could have sworn I posted yesterday.

[Captain Falcon]

I got mislynched in Nomination Mafia and Bedtime stories. I had gotten really used to not ever getting lynched prior to that.

How in any way is that pertinent? That comment about getting mislynched again does not look like it was added spontaneously or posted "off the top of my [your] head".

That looks like an engineered placement of a sentence.

[Captain Falcon]

I move my vote around a lot more than most people because I rethink things pretty often.
If you look at my ISO you'll note that I was wary of both of them for some time before I voted them.
I liked that the Amrun wagon was growing fast and that my vote made 3 in a row because it smashed things up and made the game less boring, which helps town. It was obviously going to get me attention, so I don't think my vote was 'convenient' at all. Same goes for my TSQ vote which came before / after I was attacking his wagon and the people on it.

Go look through my ISO. I have tried to figure out this game and have cared who got lynched.
I have been a starter or primary driver of several wagons because of this.
I've attacked and annoyed a lot of different people including hard to lynch don't-want-them-after-you players like CES.
My reads have gone back and forth on people in a way that has little or no point for scum and is hard to fake.
I think a lot of specific thought processes I've gone through are unlikely from scum and will start running through them if needbe.
These are a lot of the biggest real differences between town and scum these days, and Benmage has done zero of these things.

Llmarble, the fact that you recignite all of that is what make me question your alignment.
I don't like the fact that once pressure you start going into this look at all the things I've done!! mode.

Also, the original statement that brought about the question you answered with nomination mafia and the other one is the one I think is engineered. The "oh I am going to get mislynched again" statement. Scum say that a lot. Hell in my last scum game I was on the verge of being lynched and I said "if I am going to get mislynched by deadline so be it".

It is exactly the type of statement that a scumbag would say to get people to see the "motivation" behind the posts.

[Captain Falcon]

Once I am threatened with being lynched, I ask people to actually read my stuff I've done and stop being stupid?
What an incredibly scummy thing to do!
Surely I haven't done that practically every time I've ever been run up as town.

The fact that you realize this means you can manipulate it. Haven't you heard of that opinion about meta? Once it's realized it no longer becomes relevant due to the fact that it can be manipulated, or do you not agree with the premise?

[Captain Falcon]

Uh, you said that I was scummy because I asked people to reread my stuff, which is just wrong. I do think self meta can be relevant when it is pervasive and hard to fake though.

Hmm?

You asked people to reread your stuff because you felt it was obviously town minded, that is where I drew my opinion towards "if you realize it, you can fake it".

What does LLD think about Benmage?

[Captain Falcon]

LLD is focusing on other things than mafia right now. My QT has quieted down a bit and we're mostly playing our own games while doing our best to sanity check each others' lynches.

That's unfortunate. I consider she to be the easier one to read of your group.

[Captain Falcon]

What are the main points against Nacho? I personally find Matias more likely to be scum than Nacho.

VOTE: Matias

[Captain Falcon]

I personally think it has to do with his voting.

More in a little bit.

[Captain Falcon]

Zach, CES was fairly obvtown after the Llmarble flipped.

[Captain Falcon]

Sorry, hit submit because I just woke up. fweh.

So if anyone, probably him, but my reads have been kind of shit this game.

Yup.

You're scum.

He makes this comment about Socio's "easy" vote on Bub when Matias had an "easy" vote on SingerSinger.

What did Matias do after easy voting Singer?

He unvoted and then never placed a vote again, after 6 vote counts.

Until Llmarble died.

[Captain Falcon]

CES is a strange kill.

My list of suspects is extremely low. Just Benmage, and that's not even too strong after that flip (purely doubt of my own reads).

I'll wait for everyone to check in I suppose with their reads. I'm lost.

CES was not a strange kill. In fact I would have expected Zach, CES, or Ben to die given the fact that they were all likely to be confirmed town and just another obstacle for scum to overcome/manipulate.

Your statement of waiting for everyone to check in with their reads says to me "Well, I don't really have any good suspects anymore, might as well wait for the next opportunity lynch to present itself"

You're already laying the groundwork for a mislynch on Sociopath as seen in this post below.

Oh and Matias, now that you're here, who's scum?

I said I wasn't too sure. My read on Benmage weakened after that flip because my read on Llamarble was so cloudy, and people saw something that I didn't.

I honestly think Socio has been putting down easy stance votes. I don't like how he expected his vote on me/Bub to go -anywhere-.

[Captain Falcon]

Here we go with the undermining.

Point 1 - really?

Everyone

, how many of you think Ben is town?
Point 2 - it is obviously not "matter of fact I know they are town". It is exaggeration, but I feel confident with labeling them as confirmed town.
Point 3 - Because of his play. He is playing a minimalistic approach that I think is paranoid townie

To your next paragraph, I never explicitly mentioned what I thought was you laying the ground work, it is ironic that you automatically attribute it to something entirely different.

The quoted part

"easy stance votes, how did he expect his vote to go anywhere?" is what I was specifically referring to. You point to something that is slightly scummy as the bait to see if anyone takes it, hence setting up a mislynch.

pedit:

all of those except for Amrun's read have been very bad imo

Also, is it worse to have bad town reads or bad scum reads?

[Captain Falcon]

Why was Amrun's so bad in particular?

He connected you two as teammates and given his self stated meta on Day 1, obviously he was not going to go out of his way to attack you both seeing as it would make him a potential target which to my knowledge is the entire reason he is playing the way he is.

[Captain Falcon]

Why was Amrun's so bad in particular?

He connected you two as teammates and given his self stated meta on Day 1, obviously he was not going to go out of his way to attack you both seeing as it would make him a potential target which to my knowledge is the entire reason he is playing the way he is.

Which is fine if you buy the explanation at face value and don't think he's actually playing that way to be able to explain his survival in the game because he's actually scum.

And further, he has no reason now to continue to play to that strategy as town, because all the town needs to do is lynch one more scum to win, and there's no threat of a nightkill following that which would lead to last year's result.

I was actually waiting for someone to bring that up.

More town points for you.

I'll wait until Socio makes another comment before I make my comment on this.

[Captain Falcon]

Matias, read on Bub?

[Captain Falcon]

You still see Johhog and I as possible scum?

;_;

[Captain Falcon]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Nacho

Fine

[Captain Falcon]

Also, looking over everything, I think I'm ready to do this:

Vote: Socio

This is entirely not surprising.