Open 421-Pamplona II: Electric Bullgaloo! Game over

[kondi2424]

I haven't done reading that wasn't skimming near the end of days or ISOs.

I'd like to know who was responsible for the TERRIBLE inte lynch, especially since he claimed before he was lynched.

I have a beginning scumread on RD, but that's the only read I have right now.

[kondi2424]

So I doubt I won't be voting RD today. RD doesn't lynch one of the many claimed PRs on Day 1.

[kondi2424]

@Rach: My intentions in that post should be really obvious, and I explained why I couldn't post more in the post before.

Two scum caught.

[kondi2424]

Alright, I have a good suspect for the third scum. Going to make sure they didn't townslip or anything before I call them out, though.

I will say that RD/Rach are pretty close to being obvious scum to me.

[kondi2424]

Yes.

[kondi2424]

I feel really bad mentally right now. I'm thinking differently. This may have an affect on my reads here, so if I sound different, that's why. That's the best way I know how to explain this.

[kondi2424]

Alright, I'm going to try to eliminate possible scum by eliminating unlikely teams.

I'm starting with DLG. DLG/Bitmap has already been eliminated as of Post 81.

[kondi2424]

Overall on the DLG/Psyche slot, I feel like it could only be scum with RD, Near, or Rach. Which is actually pretty bad for it considering my reads. However, I have a slight town lean on the slot.

[kondi2424]

Also just realized something and feel dumb about it. It's really freaking obvious that there's scum in the docs. Three docs, and none of them protected JF. That didn't happen. Near is the most competent of the three, and therefore the scummiest for the incident.

[kondi2424]

Also just realized something and feel dumb about it. It's really freaking obvious that there's scum in the docs. Three docs, and none of them protected JF. That didn't happen. Near is the most competent of the three, and therefore the scummiest for the incident.

When you see trash on the street, do you jump to pick it up? No, surely someone else will pick it up.

Doesn't matter. One of them would have thought, "Hey, maybe I should protect the confirmed town."

@shotgun: Can you show me the post/string of posts where that was established?

[kondi2424]

Okay yeah, Bitmap claiming to protect Near was

really

bad.

Bitmap, did you just "happen" to forget how shotgun agreed he was protecting Near?

[kondi2424]

Okay, this is what I suspect this game is.

RD/Bitmap are mafia. Rach is scum of some sort, likely mafia, possibly SK. Either Psyche or BK is the fourth scum.

Night 1, one of the kills went to McStab and the other went to JF, who was doubly protected. Due to JF not dying and mafia having a Strongman kill, I suspect that the mafia shot McStab and the SK missed on JF. Both kills landing on McStab is also possible.

Night 2, there are multiple likely scenarios. Most likely, both kills landed on JF.

An SK is still very possible when you consider that it means we still had two Doctors and a Jailkeeper, along with kills that could easily be doubled on.

VOTE: Bitmap

[kondi2424]

I really don't want to. I feel right.

I'm sure there is exactly one scum in the Doctors. Zero scum makes no sense from probability/night actions, and I doubt two scum decided they would both claim Doctor on Day 1.

This means there is an SK, so we're looking for four scum instead of three.

Bitmap is really obviously the scum between the Doctors.

[kondi2424]

I've convinced myself that Bitmap/RD is definitely a team. I want this looked into.

Rach I'm not completely sure of, but she's probably the third mafia.

[kondi2424]

BK, I don't really like your case. I'm sorry.

[kondi2424]

So right now RM is at L-3 with BK and Bitmap voting her?

Not likely anyone will hammer.

@shotgun: Not yet. Bitmap is more obvious.

@Psyche: Who do you suspect?

[kondi2424]

Both shotgun and Near are obvious town as well.

[kondi2424]

Sassy.

It should be obvious that I'm talking about actual reads on them instead of just PoE.

[kondi2424]

Pretty sure I know who scum is between BK and Psyche as well, but I'm not saying yet.

[kondi2424]

RD, we're basically having the same PoE but switched. We agree that there is an SK, and one scum in the Doctors. However, the two main differences are that I think Bitmap is scum while you think shotgun is scum, and we're switching each other out. We're both undecided about BK-Psyche.

Let's pretend we're both town. This means we're dealing with Rach, BK and Psyche all being some sort of scum, and one scum in the Doctors. Let's also assume we're both right, and Near is town.

We would still have to decide whether shotgun or Bitmap was the last scum.

Therefore, it really makes no difference whether we do the Doctors or the VTs today. It may actually be better, because it's much more likely that a mafioso claimed Doctor.

PEdit: I agree. But read this post as well.

[kondi2424]

RD, I'm really trying not to vote you today. You're really obvious mafia, and I can give evidence with the limited amount of reading I've done. You pushed a lynch on inte, the claimed Tracker, who you had to have known was VI material and had a role that could at least be semi-confirmable. You're one of those players that is consistently either right, NKed, or scum, and while that's WIFOM and can probably be "disproven" by an outlier, you know it has some merit to it. You've consistently found reasons not to lynch the Doctor claims. Your reasoning for this has been flimsy - until now, your reasoning has been that you won't consider it until you have evidence of an SK, but now that it's LyLo, you're considering an SK but now leaning on the fact that there's more probability of lynching scum in a VT claim than a Doctor claim. (On that note, I'd rather lynch someone I'm sure of being scum and is more likely to be Mafia in the 33% scum group [Bitmap] than lynch someone I have a moderate scumread on that has a 75% chance of being scum [Rach] with a likely SK in the mix)

There's likely more, and that's enough for me to want to vote, but I can't out-argue people like you when they're Mafia. A good example of this is a Newbie game, "The Mafia are due on Maple Street," where fitz was scum, I tried to put up a clear case on him, and he slithered his way into someone else's lynch.

So, even though I know you're Mafia, I'm going to play like you're the SK until you're the last one left. I know Rach is scum, but I don't know whether she's Mafia or the SK. The other two are 50-50 town-scum with no certainty that there's a Mafia in it.

Meanwhile, I'm sure Bitmap is Mafia, can't wiggle his way out like you can, and if you want to save him, you have to either buddy to him or push the other lynch - both of which will actually help get you once Bitmap flips.

[kondi2424]

I've kinda already explained everything, and am too lazy to respond to your late OMGUS properly. I will say that you are being a hypocrite, and that you're not actually reading my posts.

[kondi2424]

I used it correctly.

@RD: I explained that I know probability makes a VT lynch better, but I've also explained that reads make a Doctor lynch better.

[kondi2424]

Meh, you're probably right.

Near, who do you suspect in the VTs the most?

[kondi2424]

Did you read my big post? I think you're both scum.

Just wondering, to both of you - why the preference to Psyche over BK?

[kondi2424]

You really think that has any use to me?

[kondi2424]

Gonna be gone about 24 hours.

[kondi2424]

Trevor, you're really lucky you replaced shotgun.

Psyche, who do you feel most comfortable lynching today as of this moment?

[kondi2424]

Just came back from my trip. It was an interesting experience. I almost got arrested for accidentally trespassing in a hotel... with guys from my youth group.

Anyway, I guess I'll do this. There's not enough support for a Bitmap lynch, and you're the only one I'm sure is Mafia.

VOTE: RD

[kondi2424]

And why is that?

[kondi2424]

Haha.

But seriously.

[kondi2424]

-_-

It's upsetting because I can't tell whether this makes you town or scum. It's like a really asshole-ish version of WIFOM.

[kondi2424]

I have mixed feelings about that. I thought my meta was unreadable

[kondi2424]

I'm really not afraid of being hammered. BK might be town, but not Bitmap.

[kondi2424]

If he's coordinating a quickhammer, that means I'm town and you should unvote.

[kondi2424]

@BK: There is no way you can a) prove that, and b) connect those two in any way.

Bitmap vote is terrible.

PEdit: There are Docs... which means his shot was probably protected. This implies Near-town.

[kondi2424]

What's the case on Uber? Or better, WHERE is it?

Its coming. Probably in a few days.

You said Rach isn't scum. Who do you think is scum besides UN(Psyche) and DLG?

Note for later use. Psyche shouldn't be lynched today.

[kondi2424]

Dashie's decently complex. She's good enough that I wouldn't want to lynch her day one, but we'll see. Something isn't right about her play thus far. She seems to be focusing on the whole massclaim thing which won't even happen until tomorrow.

Do you think we should proceed with the mass-claim?

I've been thinking about it and imagine we have around 3-4 PRs for town. We would lose ALL our PRs in the next 2 days.

Ugh, I'm really bad at statistics and there are too many random variables. I'm bad at combinations and stuff like that.

Fucking hell

So I was wrong about Bitmap.

Really not sure what the scumteam could be now. I have solid townreads on every Doctor. Still pretty sure RD is scum.

[kondi2424]

@Bit: Null. It's obviously how it happens that determines its intent.

[kondi2424]

I haven't read into the massclaim strategy at all. My scumread on RD has nothing to do with the massclaim.

Although, considering the amount of PRs we had, scum would probably encourage a massclaim in order to know what they were up against.

[kondi2424]

I'm saying they may have looked at their lineup and encouraged a massclaim in order to know what kinds of PRs they were up against/who to kill first.

[kondi2424]

Well then, this just got simple. I'm going to look into the possibility of a RD-BK-Rach team.

[kondi2424]

Never mind, BK/Rach aren't scum together.

PEdit: No, seven letters get pulled and the leftover spots are filled with VTs.

[kondi2424]

So, I think I finally have it figured out.

RD is still the best lynch, but I would accept a lynch on Rach.

[kondi2424]

Three.

[kondi2424]

1) The vote on Bit. This makes 0 sense from a town perspective - the doctor claims should be entirely off limits unless there is physical proof of a SK, which makes me think kondi is scum who knows a SK exists. This meshes with the fact that UN constantly seemed to assume there was a SK.

Already explained that the extent of my scumread on Bitmap made it not matter that he was a Doctor. When someone is scum, and you feel sure of it, you lynch them. Besides, if we never lynch Docs, there will most likely never be proof of an SK. They are Docs, you know. You're also ignoring the fact that you're assuming there's an SK for no apparent reason as well, other then the fact that you have a scumread on shotgun's slot. From an outsider's view, not as scummy as wanting a lynch on a Doc because of it, but still assuming there's an SK.

2) Even in his last post, he continues to try and look like he is scumhunting, but never actually changes his original arguement of me being scum but goes elsewhere. This is giving the illusion of scumhunting while actually just sitting on me without giving a single reason as to his vote.

BS. Allow me to direct you to my reasoning, which you haven't defended against:

RD, I'm really trying not to vote you today. You're really obvious mafia, and I can give evidence with the limited amount of reading I've done. You pushed a lynch on inte, the claimed Tracker, who you had to have known was VI material and had a role that could at least be semi-confirmable. You're one of those players that is consistently either right, NKed, or scum, and while that's WIFOM and can probably be "disproven" by an outlier, you know it has some merit to it. You've consistently found reasons not to lynch the Doctor claims. Your reasoning for this has been flimsy - until now, your reasoning has been that you won't consider it until you have evidence of an SK, but now that it's LyLo, you're considering an SK but now leaning on the fact that there's more probability of lynching scum in a VT claim than a Doctor claim. (On that note, I'd rather lynch someone I'm sure of being scum and is more likely to be Mafia in the 33% scum group [Bitmap] than lynch someone I have a moderate scumread on that has a 75% chance of being scum [Rach] with a likely SK in the mix)

There's likely more, and that's enough for me to want to vote, but I can't out-argue people like you when they're Mafia. A good example of this is a Newbie game, "The Mafia are due on Maple Street," where fitz was scum, I tried to put up a clear case on him, and he slithered his way into someone else's lynch.

I think this is enough. The first point has more merit than the others.

3) He was afraid of voting me. I think this actually is a tell since he knows im good at being able to argue as town and get who I want lynched. It wasnt until I started making it clear I still thought he was scum and I was considering votin Bit to be a scumtell that he abandoned that wagon. Even with that he would not actually vote me until he thought that there was support to my wagon. This is not town mentallity.

More BS. You're good at arguing, and that's a true statement regardless of alignment. There's also no point in voting someone that won't be lynched, and I felt sure that both of you were scum at the time.

[kondi2424]

Already explained that the extent of my scumread on Bitmap made it not matter that he was a Doctor. When someone is scum, and you feel sure of it, you lynch them. Besides, if we never lynch Docs, there will most likely never be proof of an SK. They are Docs, you know. You're also ignoring the fact that you're assuming there's an SK for no apparent reason as well, other then the fact that you have a scumread on shotgun's slot. From an outsider's view, not as scummy as wanting a lynch on a Doc because of it, but still assuming there's an SK.

I think there is a SK due to how so many are very intent on there being a SK and actually have laid down doctor votes which I dont really see if there is no SK. Either way while I do agree with there being a SK, im not about to essentially risk the entire game on there being one AND being correct over who it is.

Also in the end did you just say "I am scummy but you are sort of scummy for doing something similar"?

No, I'm saying that you're saying my assuming there's an SK is scummy while yours is not. Either they both are or both aren't.

BS. Allow me to direct you to my reasoning, which you haven't defended against:

You mean that case thats basically 'isnt obv town' and 'pushed inte lynch'? Yeah thats basically a case full of logical fallacies and burden of proficency. Im not the best town player in existance and have complete ability to be wrong about some things.

You pushing the inte lynch is the main reason you are scummy to me. All you're doing is calling out the bad parts in the case without addressing the damning part.

Also are you using "did not want to lynch doctor claims" as a scumtell now when in response to part one you used thinking there is a SK as a scumtell? You cant have it both ways you know.

You've constantly been against lynching the Doctors despite the fact that it was safe until today. You were also against there being an SK until today, when thinking there was an SK previously meant a Doctor lynch was okay.

The base of the scumminess is in the first sentence, and is why I bothered to point it out. The second sentence may be a coincidence even if you are scum, but there's the possibility that you wanted to show belief in an SK all along but couldn't because it would make a Doctor lynch okay.

More BS. You're good at arguing, and that's a true statement regardless of alignment. There's also no point in voting someone that won't be lynched, and I felt sure that both of you were scum at the time.

So as town you were afraid to vote somepony who you thought was scum and had a case to back it up?

Yes. I was afraid because you are good at making a convincing argument, which means that you could end up slithering out of my case. As I said earlier, this happened with havingfitz in this Newbie game. I had a good case, but it got torn up by scum-fitz.

The bolded parts are expamples of where you twisted my words in that post.

[kondi2424]

Psyche, I should be obvious town to you by now.

[kondi2424]

No, I'm saying that you're saying my assuming there's an SK is scummy while yours is not. Either they both are or both aren't.

Thats not what im saying exactly.

There is nothing wrong with at this point in the game assuming there is an SK though. By voting a doctor though, if there is no SK, it would cost us the game if we mislynch there. Despite it being probable to the extent that im going to scumhunt like there is a SK, we do NOT lynch as if there is one, because a doctor mislynch with none is an auto-loss. That is why its scummy, as town I think you would notice the fact that if you were wrong you lose. As scum I think you just notice that there are lynchable doctors and go for it.

A Doctor mislynch is not an autoloss. One of the other Doctors can get a protection, and if there's a liar in the Docs, the SK can still kill a Mafioso.

You pushing the inte lynch is the main reason you are scummy to me. All you're doing is calling out the bad parts in the case without addressing the damning part.

I would lynch inte again in a heartbeat. He was legitiamtely scummy and botched his claim badly. Feel like I should refrence Spy here. He was scummy, he claimed like he was scum, I lynched him beause I thought he was scum. End of story.

But he had a useful and provable role. And you were okay with lynching the Tracker claim, but the Doctor claims were a no-no. By your own logic, inte shouldn't have even been considered unless there was a proven SK.

You've constantly been against lynching the Doctors despite the fact that it was safe until today. You were also against there being an SK until today, when thinking there was an SK previously meant a Doctor lynch was okay.

The base of the scumminess is in the first sentence, and is why I bothered to point it out. The second sentence may be a coincidence even if you are scum, but there's the possibility that you wanted to show belief in an SK all along but couldn't because it would make a Doctor lynch okay.

Ive proven already why a doctor lynch is never okay out of there essentially being a confirmed SK. Are you trying to aruge here that I am scum because I tried to prevent a doctor lynch over the last couple days?

See above.

[kondi2424]

Come on, Psyche. She's napping.

[kondi2424]

A Doctor mislynch is not an autoloss. One of the other Doctors can get a protection, and if there's a liar in the Docs, the SK can still kill a Mafioso.

Way to mislead. Any mislynch today is basically an auto-loss.

There are Doctors. Doctors can save people. There may be an SK. SKs can kill scum. You call this misleading?

This was also based on RD saying that a Doctor lynch was an autoloss while a VT lynch wasn't. Is she not misleading for saying a VT lynch isn't an autoloss?

[kondi2424]

Alright. RD is pretty much basing his scumread on "voted a scumread that was in a riskier group," which is exactly what he did with inte. BK is just saying "scum scum scum." The Psyche vote makes absolutely no sense.

What am I at?

[kondi2424]

Okay, BK is town.

[kondi2424]

This game is screwed. It's RD-Psyche-Rach.

[kondi2424]

But I'm also getting too many town vibes from Psyche... One of them could be a SK while the last scum was somehow a Doctor claim, but that's doubtful.

[kondi2424]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[kondi2424]

Actually, yeah. VOTE: RM

From my POV, if RM isn't scum, RD, Psyche, and BK all have to be scum. Psyche and BK are both townreads. I can be wrong about one being the SK, but not both.

From Psyche-town POV, if RM isn't scum, RD, BK and I all have to be scum. The only logical possibility there is that I'm an SK (I'm not - I would have claimed at L-2)

From BK-town POV, if RM isn't scum, RD, Psyche and I all have to be scum. The only logical possibility there is that RD or I is an SK.

From RD-town POV, if RM isn't scum, BK, Psyche and I all have to be scum. The only logical possibility is that BK or I is an SK.

I suggest, if anyone doesn't want RM lynched, they claim SK now.

[kondi2424]

I really don't care anymore. BK's constantly going to tunnel with no evidence of his own (besides UN's play, which he hasn't provided examples of and which I can't defend against). If he's town, we're already screwed.

[kondi2424]

The first paragraph is you assuming I'm scum and then finding something that fits that.

What's wrong with my analysis in 1902? And 1907 is a true statement.

[kondi2424]

So, yeah.

A RD-RM scumteam should be REALLY FREAKING OBVIOUS at this point.

[kondi2424]

From RD-town POV, if RM isn't scum, BK, Psyche and I all have to be scum. The only logical possibility is that BK or I is an SK.

So she is putting all of her money in Psyche being Mafia with {me, you} and {Trevor, Bitmap, Near}, while the leftover in {me, you} is the SK.

In this case, she should be voting Psyche.

That gives me an idea. Let me figure out who everyone should be voting from a Rach-town PoV.

[kondi2424]

From Psyche-town POV, if RM isn't scum, RD, BK and I all have to be scum. The only logical possibility there is that I'm an SK (I'm not - I would have claimed at L-2)

Psyche would have to be voting either RD or BK.

From BK-town POV, if RM isn't scum, RD, Psyche and I all have to be scum. The only logical possibility there is that RD or I is an SK.

BK would have to be voting Psyche.

From RD-town POV, if RM isn't scum, BK, Psyche and I all have to be scum. The only logical possibility is that BK or I is an SK.

And RD would have to be voting Psyche.

I'm expecting something along the lines of "lol he's flailing trying to stay alive." But look at this information. It's actually true.

[kondi2424]

That actually made me laugh a lot.

[kondi2424]

The logic still works because there is physical proof for you that there is at least one scum in {Psyche, Rach}.

[kondi2424]

Psyche, I'm going to make this easy.

Look at RD's last post.

If you think it's genuine, vote me.

If you don't, vote Rach.

[kondi2424]

So I'm supposed to vote people that won't be lynched?

[kondi2424]

Kay. I've lost interest in saving this.

[kondi2424]

My final guess is that RD-BK-Rach is the scumteam, with Bit being a possible SK.

[kondi2424]

Bah!

Edited. ~~NS

[kondi2424]

So I agree with RD, except I think this should have been sealed by the town before Mafia got the chance. I laid out why Rach HAD to be scum, and in the dead thread, you'll see that I nailed the entire team using simple partner logic. I personally feel the majority of the town played horrible (exceptions being the shotgun slot and myself), Bit got incredibly lucky with non-incredible play, and the Mafia was shit except for RD, who was amazing. Sorry, but it's just how I feel.

[kondi2424]

Wait...

JF and Psyche were busdriven N2, and they killed JF.

Shouldn't Psyche have died?

[kondi2424]

Oh crap, missed that he tried to kill himself instead.

[kondi2424]

Actually, since they were both Doctors, they could have lynched Bit and won.

[kondi2424]

Oh, the Mafia still had it?

[kondi2424]

Nope, you used it N1.

[kondi2424]

This wasn't won due to Bit's play at all. Sorry.

[kondi2424]

...or you could have not claimed (like you should have) and had an entirely different outcome.

...or we could have lynched you the day before that (like we should have) and had an entirely different outcome.