Open 421-Pamplona II: Electric Bullgaloo! Game over

[McStab]

vote:JohnnyFarrar

I can't trust that avatar

[McStab]

Unvote, Vote:Bitmap

You concede that there was one scummy post in the first place?

[McStab]

Vote: andrew94

ISO, 10 pages in, virtually no content, no logic, and nothing to go off of.


Andrew, I really want to know what you think about Greywing, BitMap and BK201.

[McStab]

Oops, my bad. I'll give UberNinja the benefit of the doubt for his catchup posts, but I would like to see a little more content.

Until then, I can get on board with some pressure for Hyperion.

Vote:Hyperion

Hyperion, what do you think of DMS, Inte and RachMarie.

[McStab]

Point taken, drmy. I promise a big content, logic, and stuff to offy- filled post tomorrow.

What I said about the andrew/UberNinja slot still holds true though, regardless of my hypocrisy.

[McStab]

Here's where I stand with my reads:


andrew94/UberNinja - Null. Nothing of substance said yet minus andrew's weird bandwagon on bitmap. UberNinja just replaced in but really looking for some more posts before I can make a judgement.
Bitmap - Townish. Every vote after the one on me (DLG, drmyshotgun, Hyperion and BK201) are OMGUS. The whole "inte arguing with BK201 is funny" was unproductive, as are many of his other statements. The hyper-defensiveness had me thinking he's scum. But, in spite of all this, asking why he was unvoted once he was put on L-1, rather than targeting the person who put him at L-1, which is a very townish reaction. Post #271 screams of rolefishing though. @Bitmap - Why would you post this? What is the purpose of posting that?
BK201 - Townish. His pressure on inte is at the point of tunnelling, but I've got a good gut read on him being town and his correct assessment of Bitmap as town feels like a good catch, and something indicative of a nitpicky town player.
DLG - Townish. Solid logic, solid scumhunting, ability to change opinions without really coming across as a fencesitter. More of a gutread than my other townreads, but still leaning town in my mind.
DoubleJD - Null. Brevity and a lack of taking a strong stance on things has left me without a clear read on him, but I don't think that this is intentional. Time will tell.

Drmyshotgun - Scum. Something is off here, I know a fair amount about Drmy's meta, and there is definitely something amiss. Perhaps it's a little more defensive, or a little more aggressive, but I also think he's sending people into his town read section very quickly. Attacking people who haven't posted much is fine policy, but it's also easy to do, and strikes me as a non-controversial and easily performed attack by scum trying to appear to scumhunt. On a note about his reads, they are also completely illogical. See post #259 - Johnny is definitely town because he posted that he'd kill someone? At best this is a slight town-tell. While I agree Bitmap is town, his post telling people to screw themselves isn't a good post for helping the town. This reads to me as scum trying to buddy to a townie without having found the real signs that point to Bitmap being town, or at least a very very flawed reason to suspect someone is town. Same for his read on Inte. Then Near must be town because he has two similar reads and then declares DMS as not scum? OMGUR? (Oh My God U Rock .Also the hostility towards Bitmap only one post later strikes me as super-defensive scum.

Greywing - Null. Tunnelling Bitmap a fair bit, but many of his points make sense. @Greywing - What do you make of him asking why you unvoted him? Do you think this is a plausible scum reaction, or more likely town? Obviously your reasons for thinking that would be great to go with it.
Hyperion - Scummy. Making tons of accusations but offering very little to back them up. For example, while the post about RachMarie makes sense, how does Greywing get put under suspicion? He posted first. Also, BK had the most logic and reasoning behind his vote. The arguments Hyperion makes make sense, but his conclusions from them don't.
inte - Town. While his playstyle and tone is without a doubt offensive to some, I think it's so brash and aggressive that it's hard to envision inte being scum. Also his complex position on bitmap just doesn't make sense as scum. If he was scum, and Bitmap is scum, he wouldn't post things like "you make it hard not to lynch you". If Bitmap was town, he would help jump on the wagon and declare him as scum because "it's hard not to lynch him".
JohnnyFarrar - Null. Fine logic, decent reads, but I get the sense he's trying to fly under the radar.
Near - Null leaning scum. I'd prefer it if Near makes a nice big post about Bitmap being scum, Greywing being scum, and if it's possible both are scum. I get a big fencesitting/opportunist feel from his posts so far, but then again, he hasn't made any that are long than a sentence yet.
RachMarie - Scummy. Super sheeping Greywing this whole game. @Rach - I would like to see a detailed post explaining who you think is scummy and why.


With that, I'm going to go ahead and put my vote on

Vote:drmyshotgun

[McStab]

@DMS - What makes you think Near is town?

[McStab]

Not getting a good vibe from DJD, but getting an even worse vibe from RachMarie. Do her ISO and look at the fencesitting, sheeping, and actively lurking behaviour she's exhibiting.

Vote:RachMarie

Rach, what do you think of DJD, Drmyshotty, Bitmap and Greywing?

[McStab]

I still haven't heard anything from RachMarie that is convincing me to change my vote; I'd like some added pressure on her, myself.

Rainbow, I'm also unfamiliar with the advantages of massclaiming in this setup? One could force scum to claim, I suppose, but they'll figure out our town PRs far quicker than we'll figure out scum. Leaving the RachMarie issue behind for now, I'd say given the amount of lurking, there's a good argument to be made for lynching a lurking player more than the active ones. Every lurker is at least anti-town, if not actual scum.

Cops, watchers, trackers etc. should also investigate some of the lurkers tonight IMO, I think there's a good chance that's where the scum will be. Or at least it would give us some confirmed innocents out of people who would normally read null. Presumably we have at least some PRs capable of investigations.

[McStab]

Is there a better way to use the hider Role than announcing who you will hide behind? The way I see it (assuming you're telling the truth), is that if

A. RachMarie is scum, you die and then we lynch her. A fair trade.

B. RachMarie is town, the scum kill her and then two pro-town players die in one night.


If there's a protective role, I suppose RachMarie could be protected which makes it a more useful investigation, but if we don't have a doc, then I'd recommend you be a little more subtle as to who your target to hide behind is in the future (but still breadcrumb it).

Just to be clear, are we going ahead with a massclaim?

[McStab]

I'm going to hide behind DMS.

[McStab]

As for my views on Near, I'd say somewhere in between null and scum. I wouldn't mind a Near lynch but I'd prefer some pressure first on RachMarie, given her sudden lack of posting compared to earlier in the game.

So just to clarify with the massclaim, the higher tier (as in the roles only possible with multiple letters) claim first, and then the lower tier claim second?

[McStab]

No problem, I hope things turn out well.

[McStab]

Would a massclaim Day One have an advantage in that scum would be forced to claim before THEY know more information? e.g. the way people flip overnight and during the Day would mean that we can essentially confirm (or even disprove) some roles existence, meaning that scum would have less to go off of on what is a safer claim or an impossible claim? Sorry but I'm super unfamiliar in this territory, but I could see some advantages to a Day One massclaim.

[McStab]

I think today provides us a bigger advantage. As BK says, the longer they have to think and talk about it the better they'll be prepared to react. My gut says a massclaim today will trip up the scum.

Rainbow, just so no one can misunderstand, what specific roles, if they exist, should claim in each tier? Or should we simply ask each person to claim one at a time, as opposed to tiered? Let's start with Rach and Bitmap claiming first if we don't go in tiers; they seem to be the biggest wagons today. Either way, I don't really know the best way to do it, but a massclaim today strikes me as the best option.

[McStab]

Blatant prod dodge until I get popcorned

[McStab]

T1.

Popcorn to whoever's left; I think JD is the last one

[McStab]

Can someone compile the list of VT claims? And I don't think we had a single T2 claim, correct?

[McStab]

I am not a jailkeeper or doctor; that leaves inte and DJD to claim.

[McStab]

Well I may as well come out and say it, I'm a Role Cop. I need doc protection tonight.

I breadcrumbed it in two posts, I'll find them in a moment

[McStab]

I

still haven't heard anything from RachMarie that is convincing me to change my vote; I'd like some added pressure on her, myself.

R

ainbow, I'm also unfamiliar with the advantages of massclaiming in this setup?

O

ne could force scum to claim, I suppose, but they'll figure out our town PRs far quicker than we'll figure out scum.

L

eaving the RachMarie issue behind for now, I'd say given the amount of lurking, there's a good argument to be made for lynching a lurking player more than the active ones.

E

very lurker is at least anti-town, if not actual scum.

C

ops, watchers, trackers etc. should also investigate some of the lurkers tonight IMO, I think there's a good chance that's where the scum will be.

O

r at least it would give us some confirmed innocents out of people who would normally read null.

P

resumably we have at least some PRs capable of investigations.

I

think today provides us a bigger advantage.

A

s BK says, the longer they have to think and talk about it the better they'll be prepared to react.

M

y gut says a massclaim today will trip up the scum.

R

ainbow, just so no one can misunderstand, what specific roles, if they exist, should claim in each tier?

O

r should we simply ask each person to claim one at a time, as opposed to tiered?

L

et's start with Rach and Bitmap claiming first if we don't go in tiers; they seem to be the biggest wagons today.

E

ither way, I don't really know the best way to do it, but a massclaim today strikes me as the best option.

[McStab]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... _Cop_Roles

Did you read the setup?

[McStab]

Kk, now that we have that over with, where is Johnny and DJD's claims? We have doc protection, and it does no good to hide information.

From here on in, anyone hiding or lying about their role will be pursued by me to be lynched at the quickest possible point.


Get your claim out there. With three doc claims and no jailkeeper we've certainly caught two scum, so we really ought to quickly establish that there is no jailkeeper.

[McStab]

I don't see why a Jailkeeper is confirmed. Doc is an easy claim for scum, gives them an excuse to target town players. Seven people by my count have claimed PR:

inte
DJD
MS
JF
BitMap
Near
DMS


Odds of seven PRs existing is less than 1 percent. All of the players claimed T1. Odds of seven PRs existing and all of them are T1? Virtually impossible.

Then consider that odds of six PRs existing is barely 5 percent. All of the players being T1 reduces those odds once again by a decent amount. Quite implausible.

If I had to guess there's two scum in the PR list, one in the VT list. If no JK pops up then two scum are claiming doc, I doubt all three would though.

[McStab]

Let's not go lynching anyone till the claims are over and we get to discuss this real well. Johnny, you're up.

[McStab]

Yes, I did. I also know that although the mind is sometimes forgetful and may not remember something like that, logic dictates that we can solve this game based on Johnny's claim.

[McStab]

Well, the math still holds that there are scum amongst the PRs, at least one, with more than 95% chance of being two.

[McStab]

I think tonight the best strategy is not announcing anything strict. Hider announces he's checking out a townie, but no one in particular. If he dies, we can largely assume a townie is really a scum.

Tracker and I don't announce who we track. Jailkeeper targets one of the townies; if they really are town, it doesn't hurt them, and if they are scum, they can't work.

I think our move is pretty clear, in that we lynch the scummiest of the doc claims. Every doc should protect me or the tracker. Don't say who you will protect, but I would very much like it if you could all roll a dice or something random to pick (and don't let us know who).

We aren't lynching a townie today though in my opinion. We know with 100% certainty that a scum is amongst the seven claiming PRs. JF is almost conf. clear, and I know I'm town. Three docs and a JK is statistically the most improbable, so I say we lynch out of the pool of three docs.

I suggest we all ISO Bitmap, Near and DMS.

[McStab]

Near, I was about to say that you came across as much townier than Bit and DMS, but that last post REALLY made me doubt you.

To begin with, if only two of the doctors are town, JF is 100% conf. town. It's largely a moot point, but just pointing out that that's the threshold by where we can confirm JF's claim. That's why DMS claiming as a doc in third position isn't anymore risky than the second doc claim - the second claim is the riskiest. Also, both mine and DMS' breadcrumbing may strengthen our claims, but it hardly confirms us. Smart scum and experienced scum can fake breadcrumb, and DMS is no newbie.

You being the second claim does help put you near the top of the list, I'll give you that.

Rolecop in most formats isn't easily confirmable, but in JK9++ it's certainly more confirmable. Either when the JOAT or an SK strongman kills me tonight and I flip Role Cop, or when I get an investigation result that doesn't matchup with the claim and we lynch scum, I'd say at that point I'm fairly confirmable.

Hider may not be easily confirm-able at this stage, but as scum PRs get outed I'm sure it'll be easier to confirm.

As for your list, DMS and inte are by NO means almost confirmed town. JF is for obvious reasons. DMS is leaning town but fake breadcrumbing and following along on a claim that the third player on a wagon would know is true (let's say you and Bit are town; he knows you aren't lying as town, and knows a JK must exist, therefore it's highly probable he'll claim doc as a safe fakeclaim). And inte claiming tracker is confirmable, but at this stage in the game he is by no means confirmed.

Finally, it really isn't possible that all of the PRs are town. If the mod came in and told us that 199 out of 200 possible times there would be a scum among the PR claims, we would ALWAYS lynch among the PR claims. There HAS to be scum in the PR pool.

BUT

You claimed doc in the riskiest position - 2nd. Assuming you and Bitmap are town, DMS had the easiest fakeclaim, since he knew a JK already existed and could only be counterclaimed by a fourth doc, in which case he still isn't in too much trouble. Bitmap also had a easy claim that can't very much be counterclaimed.

It's possible you took a gamble, but my prediction is that Bitmap is the scum out of the three docs, and if not him, DMS.

Vote:Bitmap

@NS, could we get a votecount when you have a chance? Thanks.

[McStab]

I was inspired by your breadcrumbing I observed in another one of your games, DMS.

[McStab]

@RBD - Inte may be scum, but you know the math as well, and the probabilities of six PRs is barely any better; still less than 5% chance. I'm not lynching myself, Near seems town, Bitmap is more compelling to lynch than DMS when comparing the two, and JF is cleared. This leaves DJD or one of the docs, and as you say, a Hider is more of a town claim than a safe fakeclaim by Bitmap. Aside from that, we have ways of verifying inte; we can test his results. Because of the strongman kill and bus driving abilities, plus the high probability that the docs will all claim they guarded me or inte, the doc claim is largely untestable. Worst case scenario is we lynch a real Doc, hopefully get some sort of info from Night Actions on the remaining docs, and we can narrow down a fakeclaiming doc tomorrow. If the docs come up clean, DJD and inte then become prime suspects.

[McStab]

McStab: Scum claiming third doctor is definitely risky, though not as risky as claiming second doctor. Even though scum DMS would have known that Jail Keeper exists because of town Bit and town Near doctor claim, it only takes another town doctor to easily put him at risky position. There could be max 3 doctors and with 4 people left to claim (technically 3, since 1 is JK), it is still risky. Much safer claim would have been a tracker, where even if another town tracker exists, he wouldn't be in trouble.

That's a good point, but a counterclaim just puts him in a precarious position, not a auto-lynch position like the second claim. I still standby the idea that Bitmap has acted most suspiciously of the three and had the safest claim position though.

[McStab]

It would actually be pretty hilarious, if we got extraordinarily lucky and just drew 7 PRs, and we killed all of them while scum lurked in the VT pool.

[McStab]

@Near: In regards to lynching in the VT pool as opposed to the PR pool, you do have two good points in that a) there are more scum probably in the VT pool than the PR pool and b) mislynching a PR is far worse than mislynching a townie.

However, our chances of mislynching a VT are higher because we don't have any conf. townies or even suspected townies. When it comes to the PRs, we have more information to work off. For example, saying our odds are 1/7 is incorrect when we are 100% sure Johnny is town (for practical purposes), and that DMS + You are less likely to flip scum. Also, just to be clear, odds are pretty high (over 95%) that there are two scums in the PR pool.

So 2/6 chance with clear leanings towards Bitmap and inte strikes me as very juicy odds as opposed to a shot in the dark on 2/6 townie odds.

[McStab]

@DJD, Near: The argument of lynching out of the VT pool being better odds than lynching out of the PR pool is a myth. There is 2/6 (JF is cleared, and 95% chance of two scum) chance in the PR pool, and that means either 1 or 2/6 odds in the VT pool.

@UN - I'm not doubting your scum catching abilities, but I am questioning your logic abilities. I would rather take hard math over "gut" anyday. If you think you're dying tonight, I'd imagine you're wrong. I'm probably going to be strongarmed tonight unless we catch the JOAT, and I wouldn't be surprised if the/one of the real doc(s) gets killed as well.

Bitmap is the proper lynch today. If inte decides to lead us towards a mislynch he's dead the day after, and I'm perfectly content with going one-one on a scum-lynch. Near is probably the real doc, and DMS is more likely than Bit to turn the real doc.

[McStab]

If it's BK or inte, I'll go inte.

Vote:inte

But Bitmap is still a better candidate for lynching today.

[McStab]

To be honest, I wasn't in the game long, but I felt my number one mistake was claiming Role Cop. Obviously fakeclaiming as town isn't a smart play generally, but do you think in this specific condition it would've been smart?

[McStab]

To be honest, I wasn't in the game long, but I felt my number one mistake was claiming Role Cop. Obviously fakeclaiming as town isn't a smart play generally, but do you think in this specific condition it would've been smart?

[McStab]

http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/KAp2SCaymuT

[McStab]

I really don't know why you guys didn't lynch RBD, this was a WIN-WIN situation

[McStab]

He could be an innocent child and i would lynch him