Open 421-Pamplona II: Electric Bullgaloo! Game over

[Near]

Vote DrMyShotGun

Vote JohnnyFarrar

Vote RachMacharie

DIE DIE DIE

[Near]

I have been prodded. Catching up..

[Near]

Unvote

What the hell was that, BK?

Wait, why did you unvote?

This is SO scummy. So nonchalant. So non-townie.

[Near]

BK is NOT scum.
Inte prob NOT scum
DMS is NOT scum

[Near]

Vote Greywing

[Near]

Actually I am torn between Greywing and Bitmap. Bitmap wagon seems better, but maybe they are scums together anyway.

[Near]

Vote Bitmap

[Near]

There seems to be a bunch of meta arguments as opposed to focusing on actual scumminess within this game. Personally, I think meta is abusable and of little use as a scum-hunting tool, but whatever.

I feel like I've missed something and plan to re-read the game to see what.

I want answers from Near because I think the espoused reason for voting Bitmap doesn't make sense. It feels like a scummy attempt to provide "original reasoning" and not be accused of sheeping.

VOTE: Near

I don't mind sheeping but I forget why I was voting for Bitmap LOL. BRB

[Near]

What?? DLG, I didn't provide ANY reason why I was voting for bitmap. I just said Bitmap or Greywing..........

Discuss what you are talking about.

[Near]

I don't mind sheeping but I forget why I was voting for Bitmap LOL. BRB

/headdesk

Seriously? You couldn't even come up with a half-assed lie?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Near

My mom told me that I don't have to lie because I am town!!!

[Near]

Sorry guys, I will participate more! Reading!

[Near]

Dashie's idea of claiming is interesting. Can we plan for mass claiming exactly at the same time. At least, within a couple of minutes so that scums do not have the chance to add up claims to figure out optimal claim.

For example, Dashie, in your above example, if the second player to claim JailKeeper is actually scum, he could simply claim Hider to protect his buddy. You do make a point to say that scummy players should claim first, but scummy often doesn't equal scums.

So how about it. We set a time that we (at least most of us) are available, calibrate our clocks, and check in by posting our check in posts (like 5 minutes before claim time), and we submit our roles at once.

[Near]

And even if many of us are from different time zone, this shouldn't take more than 5 minutes of our time, so there shouldn't be too many excuses. And as long as we could get like 8 or so people to agree, this should be worth it. And people who cannot not make it to THE CLAIM TIME have to claim first - VT, T1 or T2 but not full claim unless you are T2.

[Near]

RBD is probably town? Because he proposed mass claim, and I don't think scums are likely to propose mass claim. Although now thinking about it, mass claim may not be a good idea, even if we all claim at once.

Most important advantage of mass claiming for town is being able to reduce the number of players in the pool to choose the scum from. Mass claiming in this set up does not do a good job in this respect. Suppose N number of players claim power. Not only we don't know how many scums exist in this game (can range from 2-4 including SK), but even if we knew, we won't know how many from scum claimed VT and how many claimed power. One simple scum strategy of 3 people scum team could be that 1 scum claims tracker and other 2 claim VT. We still don't know how many scums belong to the VT pool vs. PR pool.

This are various easy strategies for scum because claiming tracker, doctor, gunsmith or even vigilante (even if we request vig to target a certain player who claimed vanilla, with possible presence of JOAT and bus driver, we would not know vigilante failing to make the vig kill is scum or town being blocked or bus-driven) makes it very unlikely for them to be caught. Given the following assignment rules:

Investigation Roles
I = Tracker
II = Tracker, 1-Shot Tracker
III = Tracker, Tracker
IIII = Tracker, Tracker, 1-Shot Tracker
IIIII = Tracker, Tracker, Tracker, 1-Shot Tracker

Scum claiming tracker would give information to town only if number of

I

's drawn happened to be 5 or greater. And even if 5 or more I's were drawn, we still have to choose one scum out of 4 total trackers who claimed.

If you look at the power assignments for doctor, vigilante, and gunsmith, it should be clear that scum can safely choose from any one of these roles also.

The second advantage of mass claiming should be allowing the town to generate a list of confirmed townies. Mass claiming in this set up does slightly a better job at this, because assuming scums would safely choose tracker, doctor, vigilante, and gunsmith, we can

probably

assume that anyone claiming jailkeeper, hider, rolecop, or vengeful are confirmed town. Still, this allows us to have maximum of 4 confirmed townies, but probably fewer in reality because we may not have any power roles in one or more categories. And even if we do have a power role in each category, if we have total of one role in each of killing and protection category, our power roles may happen to be doctor or vigilante - which would not allow us to confirm them as townies.

Fixed tag. ~~NS

[Near]

yeeaaahhh

VOTE: Uber

Uhh why?

The town thing to do would be replacing out. The scum thing to do is claim you're reading for four days. My vote moves when I see something useful out of that slot.

I never actually liked voting someone for the sole reason that they are lurking and Uber could just be refusing to replace because he hasn't really done anything yet. I'd admit he did try to give us some reads a bit earlier and I'm waiting to hear the rest of his reads. We have time, no need to rush this.

Doesn't this sound scummy? Tries to fit-in as town as if he was contributing something useful though not contributing anything of value.

His mentioning of his grades in English classes as an excuse. He is overly focused in defending himself, and he calls it "self-assessing myself as a player"...

Being unsure about claiming though sounds town. Or maybe he's inexperienced scum unable to hold his fear of having to claim.

[Near]

I just noticed that my suspicion regarding "Uhh why?" has been brought up by JD already, in similar words.

Either way, it is more suspicious because after JF voted for UBER, people were talking about wanting UBER replaced. Then Bitmap ignores this discussion and has to show off how townie oriented he is.

[Near]

RBD is probably town?

Doesn't this sound scummy?

Are you asking questions? These aren't very strong stances.

IT IS VERY SCUMMY. LYNCH BITMAP!!!

[Near]

@Near - You are missing something. May as well say it because its what screwed over town last time.

Pay attention to the scum roles and if there is a SK. This tells us what setup we are in, and therefore how many PRs we have.

If the number does not add up with the amount claimed, we have known scum (and even how many possibly) in the PRs and same goes for the VT group.

Massclaim is brutal in this game for scum to deal with because they need a little bit of luck and they need to know exactly how to deal with a massclaim.

Do you mean, if we somehow lynch SK, we know there are 7, 5, 3 or 1 T's? Likewise, if we somehow lynch JOAT, this means we have 4, 3, 2, 1, or 0 T. But individual flips doesn't tell us how many power roles exist in this game - only some possibilities. Suppose we get SK somehow, which probably will not happen until later in the game (which means scums know exact alignments of all the players, of course), and total of 6 people claimed power roles. And suppose the SK we lynched came from the VT pool. It does tell us that one out of 6 people who claimed power must be mafia (ignoring the much less likely scenario where 3-team scum team all claiming power role).

So if we do get SK sometime later in the game, we can maybe figure out the setup. So we should be able to narrow down how many scums exist in power roles, but our exact names of the roles does not really contribute toward finding scum (explained in previous post).

Also, if we get JOAT, and if there are total of 5 people who claimed power role, we still don't know if there are 1, 2, or even 3 (unlikely) scums among power roles. So, this won't as useful as somehow lynching SK. Same for mafia goon and 1-shot bus driver.

But what if there is no SK? If we are going to mass claim, we should at least wait until SK gets flipped.


Reference:

Scum Roles
TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)
TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT
T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT[/spoiler]

[Near]

And even if SK flips, 2 or 0 scums can fake claim PR, which means we still won't be able to tell how many scums are hiding in the power role pool.

Example. SK who claims VT gets lynched. Total of 6 people claim power role. Since we know existence of SK means 7, 5, 3, or 1 T's, which means there must be 13, 11, 9 or 7 vanilla townies = translating to 0, 2, 4, or 6 power roles. We won't know if there are actually 6 townie power roles or if there are 2 scums among them.

[Near]

Every time we say something about the mass claim, theres a smaller chance scum will fuck it up. Plz, stop. Also i cant believe this is still being argued. We're doing it, if you hate it because of maths or something tell us tomorrow.

@bit: ya i wont be lynching him today either. i feel like the entire town has been on his wagon at some point, so i doubt hes scum.

Near pops in, talks about massclaiming and nothing about other players. Rach too. Good :/

Mass claim will be mass fail. It would be funny and comical in the most epic sense, as one by one people start realizing how we provided the scums with literally every single piece of information we collectively have in return for very, very little.

Let's do it. I think it will definitely be memorable.

[Near]

Do I want to win or do I want to witness the dawning realization of epic failure...... LOL I am OK either way.

I can sign on anytime from USA Central time 9 AM to 12 AM.

[Near]

I wonder if the following exercise can change people's mind. Suppose the list of following mass claim:

Players 1, 2, 3, ... 7 claim VT

Player 9 claims Tracker
Player 10 claims Tracker
Player 11 claims Vengeful
Player 12 claims Vigilante
Player 13 claims Doctor

How much information do we get?

[Near]

EDBWOP: Players 1-8 claim VT

[Near]

Now we're just helping scum through the mass claim by showing how we would catch them.

Except scums are not stupid. I expect them to be able to think this through.

[Near]

Now we're just helping scum through the mass claim by showing how we would catch them.

Except scums are not stupid. I expect them to be able to think this through.

In the same way I expect you to be able to think this through?
If it's all the same I'd rather not give them pointers.

Then do you agree that mass claiming at this point in time is a bad idea?

[Near]

What?? DLG, I didn't provide ANY reason why I was voting for bitmap. I just said Bitmap or Greywing..........

Discuss what you are talking about.

That was in response to your post here:

Spoiler:

I want answers from Near because I think the espoused reason for voting Bitmap doesn't make sense. It feels like a scummy attempt to provide "original reasoning" and not be accused of sheeping.

Basically, I was asking: What do you mean by original reasoning, when I didn't provide any reasoning for my suspicions for Bitmap and Greywing being scums. Although, reading the rest of the post I guess you were referring to my "non-chalant" post.

This is SO scummy. So nonchalant. So non-townie.

That was your supposed reason for voting Bitmap. I'll ask again.

What was scummy about Bitmap's question of Greywing for unvoting him?
Is nonchalant scummy? How?
Why'd you rate the Bitmap wagon as better?

Townies tend to be uninhibited in expressing their emotions. Scums tend to control their emotions.

At the time, Bitmap was being pressured by many players, including Gerywing. So when Greywing unvoted for him, Bitmap's question asking why Greywing unvoted seemed liked Bitmap was controlling his emotions. Both scums and townies obviously would be relieved to see people unvoting them, but scums would be inhibited to express their relief. Instead, they are likely to use the "unvoting" event to further establish their "pro-townness" by flaunting their fake suspicions of exact players who unvoted them.

But most of it was whatever. Significant motivation behind my troll voting was to incite some responses from players. As for choosing Bitmap over Greywing, probably because Bitmap had more votes = easier to pressure? I don't even remember why I said Greywing's scummy LOL

[Near]

How is arguing the theory of whether, or not, to mass-claim helping catch scum? I mean, I understand how scum love the camouflage of Townieness that arguing theory provides.

If I'm wrong, set me straight.

I don't even know how to process Bitmap. The accumulation of scummy looking mistakes, topped off by the mislynch potential slip is overwhelming.

I believe Near is scum, but scum!Bitmap virtually confirms Near as Town. Scum!Near doesn't say much with respect to Bitmap. Near's conclusion of "mebbe Greywing and Bitmap are buddies" looks very weird. If Near is scum, Greywing or Bitmap come under scrutiny from a connection standpoint.

This mass claiming would be scum's gateway to victory. As I expressed earlier, while I am genuinely interested in witnessing the panic, finger-pointing, and the disaster that is going to be mass claiming in this set-up, I also want to win. And mass claiming ain't going to help me win. But whatever. LOL. Let's see what happens.

[Near]

I did not think that I needed to literally say, "this is a bad idea. I am strongly against it" in order to communicate how I feel toward mass claiming, at least from the perspective of trying to win the game. I outlined why we shouldn't mass claim, at least not until we have more scum flips. I expected that people who read and understood my post to discern how I feel about mass claiming.

After reading my posts regarding mass claiming, if you are still OK with it, I must think that you disagree or not understand some of the points. I could have written it more clearly, I guess. Either way, RBD says I am wrong. I am willing to be proven wrong.

[Near]

I wonder if the following exercise can change people's mind. Suppose the list of following mass claim:

Players 1, 2, 3, ... 7 claim VT

Player 9 claims Tracker
Player 10 claims Tracker
Player 11 claims Vengeful
Player 12 claims Vigilante
Player 13 claims Doctor

How much information do we get?

If the vig is proven to exist vengeful is cleared
If venge isnt venge vig is confirmed scum
Claimed roll is: IIIKKPT
This means expected is goon, JOAT, Driver, SK
If a SK is proven to not exist one role is lying
If a SK does exist all claims are true or two are lying (or just one tracker, both trackers arent scum)

Thats a good amount of info to me.

But the problem is that we may not know whether vig exists until later in the game. And we can't exactly lynch vig just to confirm vengeful. We could try to ask vig to target a specific person, but that will allow scums to determine best course of action - whether to roleblock vig or not. Or we can ask vig to target anyone he thinks is scummy, but with vig's identity known, scums can easily roleblock him, which again foils our attempt to confirm vig.

Similar argument applies to most items on above list.

IF

vig is confirmed scum, then so is vengeful. Not only is it unlikely for both scums to claim vig and vengeful, even if they did we won't know this until we actually lynch the vig. And while claimed roll can be projected based on power claims or VT claims, the actual roll can't be determined until more information is gathered. Therefore, expected scum roles will not help us - we simply do not know how many scums claimed power.

If a SK is proven to not exist one role is lying
If a SK does exist all claims are true or two are lying (or just one tracker, both trackers arent scum)

Exactly! Except, if SK is proven to exist, technically three scums could be lying but this is very unlikely. Still, unless we know SK exists or not...

[Near]

In the light of something I missed earlier, which I won't bring it up, mass claiming doesn't seem to be as horrible an idea as I previously thought. Still, if we have to mass claim, I would support waiting until Day 2 as well.

[Near]

I just realized why we no matter what do this TODAY rather than Day 2!

If we wait till Day 2 then we give scum Night 1 to PLAN what to claim.

However, if we do it today we probably catch them off-guard!

Good point. But this only applies if we mass claim at the same time.

[Near]

w said with the tier-system + popcorn right?

Yea, it's true they don't get to talk about it, but they get to see what their scum teammates claimed. So they can adjust accordingly.

Wherever this takes us... let's go.

[Near]

PR results, gone.

Smaller player pool, gone

Advantage of flips, gone

Chance of fuck up, now minimal.

This is dumb

While I agree with you that we should wait until later to claim, technically we will still have smaller player pool to choose scums from and flips also help scums to come up with safer claims. Chance of fuck ups, assuming reasonably intelligent scums, doesn't really all that much I think. If they are intelligent enough to read and understand what we are talking about, they are probably intelligent enough to come up with a safe claim or at least claim VT in fear.

Either way, I am willing to follow the majority. Let RBD guide us.

EDBWOP: My vote would be tomorrow as well, so at least something flips and possibly allow investigations as well.

[Near]

Safest claim belongs to T1 though. Are we taking turns claiming VT/T1/T2 now? Who's next?

[Near]

Popcorns it off means we all claim VT/T1/T2 in whatever order?

[Near]

OK, bit pick next.

[Near]

T1

Next: Hyperion

[Near]

T1

Next: Hyperion

You mean me right? Want to be sure.

LOL I should have known hyperion was replaced. I was wondering why I didn't remember his posts.

Sure, next: RBD

[Near]

UN needs to go back to lurking or something. At this point I almost want him dead because worst case he is town and wrong enough to almost lose the game flat out.

Im almost thinking he is scum though for his reaction to noting im potential cleared. Its amazingly dangerous for scum for me to get clear in this setup because im VT and shouldnt have to be a priority kill. His "lol" brushoff of it just strikes me as a way to try and preemptively shut down that chance.

If UN is scum at least one of the players who didnt realize I am Hyperion is scum as well.

Would love to see a case though since I have zero clue why he is voting BK and his case on me is apparently that I didnt realize I wasnt voting Bit despite being the entire push behind that wagon. Love to see how his case changes when im now explicitly saying that the entire wagon was me snice that goes against what his case appears to be.

I may be willing to get behind the Rach wagon after the way this page shook down. Massclaim needs to finish first though.

First, there is no day talk among scums. I don't know if you are faking this or not, as in C9++ set up which you have been comparing this game's set-up to there also is no day talk.

Second, even if there is day talk, UN scum

actually

not knowing hyperion got replaced likely means that rest of the scums also didn't realize you replaced hyperion.

Third, scum UN could have faked not knowing hyperion replacing out.

Overall, you are trying to implicate me being scum if UN is scum. I don't like that. Thus, I hope you understand UN flipping scum would make me suspicious of you.

[Near]

There has been ample discussion behind claiming on D1 rather than later to prevent scums from discussing what roles to claim. I think even if you initially thought that there is day talk, last couple of pages should have informed you otherwise. Thus, I think you are faking not knowing there is no day talk. Thus, I think you are scum.

Vote Rainbowdash

[Near]

And thus, I also think Uberninja is scum.

FOS Uberninja

Now, don't blame me for chiming in with my discussion before the completion of role claims. I am not the one who started it.

[Near]

Okay, I misunderstood the reasoning behind your claiming that scum UN not knowing hyperion replaced out meant that he likely assumed this information from his scum partner via QT.

Unvote

But then, you are saying that he paid attention to my popcorn indicating that hyperion was still in this game, yet he failed to pay attention to my other post where I addressed my mistake of not knowing you replaced hyperion? I even had to popcorn twice, in the middle of people pointing out my mistake. There were literally ample posts.

Then, overall, I think Uberninja is faking not knowing hyperion replaced out. Thus I think he is scum. What do you think?

[Near]

Actually, upon re-reading, I think Uberninja just referred you as hyperion for some reason. I am not sure if he actually didn't know hyperion is no more.

[Near]

Once inte claims a tier I will break it all down and kick it all off again.

I think there are few enough who claimed power roles (5 I think?) that there should be a time for all of us to be on this site at the same time. I am literally available any time. It should only take like 5 minutes, and there shouldn't be any excuse. If we can synchronize our clocks, we should be able to literally send in the claims within 1 sec of each other's claim. I think this could make it impossible for scums to adjust their power roles based on previous claims.

[Near]

@Uber - Just letting you know, if you ever claim anything but VT then, outside if it being a situation where you are confirmed town through the setup you are getting lynched. Thats the way this works, if its not a situation where you are confirmed town somehow this is a perfect "lynch all liars" setup since lying as town does critical damage since it greatly misleads correct play.

Same goes for inte who was trying to enact a "lynch all liars" thing earlier and is now not claiming.

Nears thing probably doesnt work. Once inte claims (if its not T2) Bit just fullclaims and we popcorn through the T1s.

Why doesn't it work??

Ugh. Fine. I claim Doctor as well. LOL

[Near]

I am SURE Bit is scum.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

Since we don't have a T2.

[Near]

*cough* Popcorn *cough*

RBD already suggested the order of T1 claims.

Vote Bitmap

[Near]

Even though the idea from Near is a good one, I think its not practical because having five be on at the exact same time its a bit of a stretch to also have them all post without being able to see eachothers claims first.

I think Bit claims and we popcorn through the T1s since its going to be unlikely to overlap either way.

T1 claims were:

Bitmap, Near, DMS, JF and MS

This

[Near]

Fuck see this is retarded. We should have all claimed at the same time. Bullshit.

[Near]

Yeah I would vote Bitmap too.

No, this means that either Bitmap, MS, and you are all scums. Or none of you is scum.

Damn. I guess none of us is scum.

[Near]

Actually, bitmap could be scum by himself.

[Near]

inte, fuck you scum. what's your claim?

[Near]

@Near: If there is no Jailkeeper claim, 2 to 3 of the doctor claims are BS.

Exactly. But even if there is a jailkeeper, you can still be a scum by yourself.

[Near]

Oh well. I think Bitmap is town. Fuck.

I also buy DMS's claim.

Which means MS or inte must be town jailkeeper.

Fuck inte.

[Near]

If inte claims detective or something, he's fucking bs. At this point scum inte knows MS is jailkeeper, so scum inte can claim basically any other T1 role safely. Fuck that. Inte better claim jail keeper, or else...

[Near]

No dlg, near's only acting like that. Doing what hes doing is seemingly helpful, but ultimately isnt. For instance: Timing the claim is no different than not timing. Shifting from absolutely hating the massclaim to being super 'helpful' about it isnt exactly comforting either.

This is so incorrect. Why do you think so?? Timed claiming makes it impossible for scums to claim safe roles based on what was previously claimed.

[Near]

@Near: If there is no Jailkeeper claim, 2 to 3 of the doctor claims are BS.

Exactly. But even if there is a jailkeeper, you can still be a scum by yourself.

Or you can be scum. Or be scum with DMS. Or DMS can be scum. Or we can all be innocent.

There is NO WAY I would claim doctor after you claimed doctor.

DMS is also probably a doctor, although scum DMS could have easily predicted existence of jail keeper. But I think he claimed so fast, and I don't think DMS can think that fast. He also left bread crumbs.

Basically, me and DMS are confirmed townies.

[Near]

So basically, following people need to claim:

McStab, DJD, and inte.

[Near]

I think I am getting reminded why I thought this claiming this was going to fail.

[Near]

wow

So if its all true we drew PPPPTIH

It means scum DO have a JOAT and more likely than not have a driver. If DJD wants to hide I would heavily suggest they simply hide behind a random VT since even if most of the scum are PRs, that pool will be drawing all of the kills.

What we know:

JF is confirmed town

There is a JOAT
If a SK flips there are one or three scum in PRs
Above applies if two kills happen in one night
If it becomes likely there is no SK, there is zero or two fakeclaims

I would assume claims (removing JF) of being most likely town to scum would be
MS (role cop)
inte (tracker)
DJD (hider)
Near (doc)
other docs (doc)

JF most likely town but not 100%. Of course, if all of the doctors are town, then JF is 100% town. But it's possible that two of the doctors are scum with JF. I guess this is so unlikely. I am rather sure that DMS is town because he claimed after two doctors. Even if he thought that his scum partner could save him by claiming JK, it would be risky because there could be another JK. This would only work if DMS knew that JF was going to claim very last.

I should be on the top of the town list because I claimed after Bit who claimed doctor. If I am scum with Bit, Bit claiming doctor should have made me claim something like tracker. If Bit is town and I am scum, again, I would have claimed tracker or some sort. And for some reason I thought JK was T2, but I guess I *could* have faked that.

I don't know why you put the role cop on the top of the town list. Rolecop is not easily confirm-able. Obviously, he must target one of the VT, and most likely he would claim he got a negative result. While rolecop is not a safe role to claim from scum, at the time when MS claimed, there were only three players left to claim, and scum MS would have known that at least one of the towns would be JK. So with basically two players left to counter claim, fake claiming rolecop was not that of a risky move if scum. Still, he left bread crumbs, so I guess I believe him for now.

Tracker is easily the safest role to claim, but the fact that he

late

claimed T1 makes me think that he is town. Why else would scum change from VT to T1? (This thought is tentative and open for discussion).

Hider is also not easily confirm-able, thus I wouldn't put hider on top of the town list. And at this point, with one person left to claim (not counting obvious JK claim that was sure to come from scum's perspective), he could have claimed pretty much anything.

To me, the most likely (almost confirmed) towns are:
DMS, JF, and inte.

And then, in the increasing order or most likely scum, I would say:
MS
DJD
Bit

It is entirely possible that all of us are town, however.

[Near]

McStab: Scum claiming third doctor is definitely risky, though not as risky as claiming second doctor. Even though scum DMS would have known that Jail Keeper exists because of town Bit and town Near doctor claim, it only takes another town doctor to easily put him at risky position. There could be max 3 doctors and with 4 people left to claim (technically 3, since 1 is JK), it is still risky. Much safer claim would have been a tracker, where even if another town tracker exists, he wouldn't be in trouble.

[Near]

I just don't see how scum would take back his VT claim to claim PR. I mean, for scum to do this, he must have had a plan to explain this. And his plan was to simply resort to "I was in too many games so I missed it"? There is no methodicalness characteristic of scum. And it couldn't have been because he wanted to save his scum partner from drowning with the doctor claim. So I believe inte.

Also, lynching one of the doctors actually does make sense in order for us to later determine the game-set up. If all 3 doctors are intact, this could potentially mean that we drew 4 or

more

P's. Hopefully Bit is scum, so we know there are 3 Ps (I don't think DMS is scum).

[Near]

Although, doctors should be sooner than later start being targeted by scums, so their alignments should be known relatively soon. Still, I think I support Bit lynch.

[Near]

...

Finally, it really isn't possible that all of the PRs are town. If the mod came in and told us that 199 out of 200 possible times there would be a scum among the PR claims, we would ALWAYS lynch among the PR claims. There HAS to be scum in the PR pool.

That is sort of an exaggeration. You mean, 127 out of 128 times . And of course, it is very likely that at least one scum exists in the pool. Assuming 3 or 4 scums, which I think is reasonable based on so many PR claims, if there is 1 scum in PR pool then we should lynch one of the VTs actually. Probability of getting scum from VT pool = 2/6 or 3/6. Probability of getting scum from PR pool is 1/7.

If you think there are 2 scums, I think we should still go after VT pool. As probability of getting scum from VT pool = 1/6 or 2/6 compared to 2/7. And mislynching a PR is definitely worse than mislynching a VT.

There could be 3 or more scums in PR, though I sort of doubt that. I think typically scums would like to claim VT.

I guess this contradicts my pushing for Bit lynch. Time to rethink.

[Near]

Now I feel like a newb for not breadcrumbing anything.

The docs and VTs are our best bets right now. Any scum after the first doc claim could have dropped that in there. This naturally leads me to believe that the first doc was town (too lazy to read back and see who it was :/)

Near all of a sudden getting wordy when trying to say I'm not obvtown strikes me as odd. Scummy even. I've never seen him speak so clearly.

You are obvious town. Just not 100% town. If Bitmap or DMS filps town, I would say you are 100% town.

[Near]

EDBWOP:

If you think there are 2 scums, I think we should still go after VT pool. As probability of getting scum from VT pool = 1/6 or 2/6 compared to 2/7. And mislynching a PR is definitely worse than mislynching a VT.

If there are 2 scums in PR pool, most likely there are 3 scums without SK unless one of the scums is a doctor, in which case we would be certain that there is no SK. This is because if all the doctors are town, we could have drawn 5 P's, for example.

[Near]

Actually, I don't understand how anyone could think I am not confirmed town..... Like SERIOUSLY.

[Near]

Uh.... I am not saying inte can't be scum, but I am not comfortable with inte lynch. I would much better prefer bitmap lynch.

[Near]

Though... tracker is basically the safest claim possible.

[Near]

Hahaha. Mass Fail.

What happens if you bus-drive? I don't remember playing with a hider set-up. I feel like it shouldn't have any affect, because hiding seems like a passive action.

So, we assume DoubleJD used his "hide" action. So whoever he hid behind is a scum.

So we think there probably is no SK. In which case, there are 0 or 2 scums in the power role. If there are 2 scums, then JF the JailKeeper is definitely a scum. Along with, probably Bitmap.

But I didn't think JF is scum, which means there is 0 scum among power role. I forget if JF left breadcrumbs. Checking...

[Near]

EDBWOP: What happens if you bus-drive a hider?

[Near]

EDBWOP: Never mind. JK cannot be scum if there are two scums among power roles anyway. It must be Bitmap and DMS. Or 0 scums.

Bitmap and DMS, who did you protect last night?

[Near]

LOL... me too.

Also there is a high possibility that scums used 1-shot bus drive on the rolecop. I would assume that scums must have worried that their KP on the rolecop could go to waste with 3 doctors around (at least 1).

So I am pretty pretty sure that there is a bus driver. Which means we drew two or fewer T's. Which is not that surprising, but still.

[Near]

EDBWOP: Me too as in I also targeted JF.

I see, there is also a chance of strong man kill. Or bus drive. Either one could have worked.

Yes, DJD could have hidden behind McStab.

What do you mean, you have to be honest? why wouldn't you want to admit that you targeted McStab?

[Near]

Because you think people will accuse you of protecting McStab despite McStab dying? No way, when there is busddriver and strongman kill. On the other hand, this would be exactly what scums would say.

I still think Bit is scum. And the only scum among power role. Which means there is SK. He could have been jailed (DLG) or simply avoided using his kill.

Anyway,, we basically lynched 3 power roles in one day/night. LOL. LOL.

[Near]

BTW, DoubleJD said he would hide behind a random VT. He may or may not have followed through though.

[Near]

And? You think Inte meant that he should hide behind the power role, since he will get doctor's protection?

Is this what you guys discussed in the QT?

[Near]

Mathematically, I HAVE to assume that there is at least one scum in the PR. If I am wrong, too bad. Less than 0.8% of the time, we will have 7 power roles in this set up. If by some chance we drew exactly 7 P's, too bad. 99.2% of the time, there should be at least one scum among PR (though this number technically changed since 3 PRs flipped town). I would be ecstatic to take this chance.

Vote Bitmap

[Near]

"I am going to be honest" sounds like pre-planned shit.

If I protected McStab and saw him dead anyway, I would have been like "They must have used the strongman kill" immediately instead of "I have to be honest" bull shit. You scum. K?

[Near]

I don't care. If there is one scum among power role, I am 95% sure it's you.

At the time, you HAD to claim PR anyway, otherwise you would have been lynched.

DMS being scum = like 5% ish.

There is also like very small chance that Bit, DMS, AND JF are scums together. That would be so so epic. But I digress. Lynch bit now.

[Near]

Before this turns into another Bitwagon, let's all calmly figure this out.

P I jailed DLG (confirmed)
P Gunny doc'd me
P Near doc'd me
P Bit doc'd McStab
I Inte Died, so no track (confirmed)
R McStab died, so no investigation (confirmed)
H DJD died so he hid somewhere (confirmed)
T RBD
T Grey
T DLG
T Uber
T BK
T Rach

If everyone were telling the truth, there would only be a goon and a 1-shot busdriver. That shouldn't be the case, because Bit said he protected McStab and he died anyway. So either Bit is lying or there is an SK/JOAT, which would mean that someone else is lying. And it has to be one or two of the docs.

Unless I am missing something, I think this is not true. We didn't draw those T's. If you read the set-up, we draw 7 letters which would translate to power roles. So, in this game of 13 people, there always would be 6 townies. We may get additional townies, though, based on what letters we draw. For example, if we drew 2 T's out of 7, then we would get 5 power roles and 2 additional townies, making the total number of townies to 8.

Thus, if everyone is telling the truth, there would be JOAT.

FOS

RBD for not pointing this out. Same goes for BK, who seems to have a good idea on the set-up.

[Near]

So the case on me is "PR who said they would do X lied" to try and clear a player they thought is strong? What about DJD trying the other thing and eliminating a mislynch in Rach/BK? What about them just taking a middle of the road shot to clear and trusting im town?

The inte lynch was a good one because he was legitimately scummy. If it was all just "oooh he might screw us over" I couldnt have gotten him lynched even if I was scum. That was the counterarguemnt to "he can confirm himself" because lets pretend that Bit and DMS are town, and we lynched Bit D1 instead. D2 inte just opens with "DMS targeted X" where X is dead townie. Or DJD targeted Y. Something like that. We mislynch a player of inte's choosing and then he gets lynched. I thought he was scum, and fully realized that if he was scum he gets a mislynch of his choice at whatever point he wanted.

You do realize massclaim still worked pretty much right? A large amount of living doctors just circle protect.

Yes, doctors can circle protect. This is the main good point that came out of massclaim. But you do realize that we didn't know there would be 3 claimed doctors and the JK? In which case we got lucky. There are two caveats still though.

1. Scums still may have Bus Driver or JOAT ability left.
2. More importantly, one of the doctors could be scum. Or maybe even two. Or possibly three. So once we start lynching doctors, we would destroy the ring of protection.
3. There may be SK. While it may not be SK's primary objective to go after doctor (I assume he would want to get some scums), later on this can be problematic. And SK not being able to communicate with scums may not help the matter too much, as SK may potentially target a doctor who SK incorrectly thinks is scum at the same time scum targets the same doctor.

Either way...... like I said. I think we should start by lynching Bitmap.

[Near]

Also, at this point, JF is not a scum. At best, he is SK. He CANNOT be the scum, unless he epic-faked his previous post regarding the absence of JOAT in this game.

[Near]

No, JF cannot be the SK either, because he claimed last. SK JF would have never allowed possible scums (bit, me and DMS) to get away with safe claims. JF therefore is town. And this means (assuming I am a doctor), there must be

at most

one scum. Exactly 0 or 1 scum among power role.

I say we kill Bit. Whether or not he's scum, his alignment would tell us the exact set-up. DMS and I can start protecting each other and well... JF will probably die, but I don't see a way to protect JF.

An alternative option would be allow Bit to protect DMS, DMS to protect me, and me to protect JF and JF to jail one of the VT's. And see what happens.

[Near]

@Near - I actually pointed that out yesterday after the massclaim. The question was do scum have a driver or not, which at this point looks likely.

I actually am thinking there is no SK because all the doctor claims and JF survived the night, which means either two of the doctor claims are scum or none are. That means today we are lynching from the VT pool. Only way I see a SK in this setup is if its DGL or if they are massively disconnected from this setup.

If you are going to call Bit scum, you need there to be an SK or for a second PR to be scum. Im almost thinking this is an "all scum in VT" situtaion. Im going to reread UN and BK tonight or tomorrow.

I realize and previously expressed this dilemma. If DoubleD actually used his hiding power, this must mean that DoubleJD hid behind a scum. In this scenario, there is probably no SK. But it is also possible that DLG is SK or SK simply

did not send out a kill to confuse us

. This would especially make sense if one of the SK initially claimed PR, but I can also see SK who claimed VT to intentionally give up his KP on night 1.

It is also possible that scums did not use JOAT or bus drive, but both SK and scums targeted MS at the same time, regardless of Bit's protection being legit or not.

I am OK lynching from the VT pool, as long as Bit protects DMS, DMS protects me, and I protect JF.

[Near]

EDBWOP: NM, DMS isn't technically not 100% confirmed. So there could be 2 scums.

Whatever. Lynch from the VT pool, see what flips.

Question about bus driving: If scum X bus drives doctor A and VT B, scum Y NK's B, doctor C protects doctor A... what happens? Does Doctor A die?

[Near]

And if two people ever die on

any

night, we autolynch BIT.

Bit, I don't particularly think DLG is SK. But he might be. I was just trying to reconcile the night 1 results and the fact that I think there is one scum among PR pool

[Near]

Why. Do you think DLG or Greywing is scum? Tell me why. NOW!!!

[Near]

[quote="In

A large amount of money says that at least one of those doctors is lying.

Have I mentioned Bitmap is town?

Cuz he's town.

Only one of these can be true.

Someone answer my bus driving question, please!

[Near]

Simple logic dictates that I

proooobably

think it's one of the other ones.

There may not be scum among PR pool but if there is a scum doctor, it must be Bit. I bet this game on it.

[Near]

Uber, do you actually have a case against BK? I must have missed it. Why is BK scum. Only suspicious thing he did was to not point out JF's mistake in deducing that there is no JOAT.

[Near]

Bit, don't be sad. If you are scum, you will live another day.

Unvote

[Near]

Someone summarize to me why BK is a good lynch?

[Near]

Bit, don't be sad. If you are scum, you will live another day.

Unvote

I'm sad I'm going to lose since we lost 3 PRs.

This post is so scummy. STop it. We not lynching you anyway.

[Near]

Someone summarize to me why BK is a good lynch?

Okay. Uber is Town. He is one of the best scumhunters around. BK is not strong Town read.

Well, I am almost certain that he is wrong about one of the fake doctors not being bitmap. So he is wrong there, for almost sure.

[Near]

Bitmap, is bread crumbing definitive proof? I could have bread crumbed 5 different roles including VT breadcrumb that no one could decipher and later choose which one I want to reveal. No one can decipher these things if you make it inconspicuous enough. I am not arguing with you that DMS is scum. I am pretty sure he is town. I am just saying breadcrumb is not a definitive proof.

Also, I claimed second. After you claimed doctor. I claimed doctor. Why the hell would I claim doctor? In case no one else is JK, this guarantees lynching you (and me, if you flip town). And if I am scum, I would know you are town hence even more of a reason why I wouldn't second claim doctor. Agreed?

[Near]

No. You could still be scum.

[Near]

Ya but you bombed the USMLE.

Seriously, I don't have an opinion on Bk lynch. RBD has failed us, which does not mean he's scum, but he promised us something that he had no basis for. I don't think this is scummy, still. Just stubborn.

[Near]

tl;dr: If there is an SK, Bitmap is lying and should be lynched. If there is not an SK, Bitmap is probably telling the truth and should be left alone is what Greywing is trying to say. There is still a possibility that both the mafia and theoretical SK targeted McStab causing the Strongman Kill not be used.

Do you think this is likely? I think I mentioned this before, but the likelihood of this happening is so theoretical that we can ignore this. I mean, do you assume scums to almost waste their kill by targeting the person who is most likely to be protected by claimed 3 doctors? Are you like scum who knows that one or more doctors are scums??

[Near]

If there is no SK, why would I be in that list?

VOTE: Greywing

Because Greywing doens't get this.

Neither does Uber.

[Near]

I am not proposing to lynch you today. I just find it amusing that you think scum targeted MS without using their stronghold kill or busdrive.

I still need someone to answer my bus-drive question. Anyone? Mod?

[Near]

I express my support for Rach lynch. Thanks

[Near]

I am not proposing to lynch you today. I just find it amusing that you think scum targeted MS without using their stronghold kill or busdrive.

I think it was RBD who mentioned it but she said how there was a possibility that both SK and mafia could of targeted MS.

I am not saying there is 0 probability. I also mentioned the possibility of it, way earlier but it's just not probable unless you think scums are retarded. Do you agree this can be effectively ignored?

You also know that it's possible that you are SK or scum, thus no one actually protected MS.

[Near]

I express my support for Rach lynch. Thanks

Then let's do it.

VOTE: RachMarie

Let me read some more first.

Bit what do you think about Rach? I have no idea what I think about her honestly, she just feels scummy. So does Greywing though, kinda.

[Near]

I am struck by realization that my previous post may incriminate me if Rach turns scum.

[Near]

Thanks Nobody

for answering my question.

So, even if scums did use strongman kill on MS, they probably still have the bus-drive. Or they could have bus-driven MS with player X, then just NK'ed X. So we need to realize that our chain of doctor protection is fallible even assuming the following two statements are true:

1. There is no SK
2. Bit is town

I need to read Uber's post, but his emphasis on doctors publicly announcing their target needs to be commented on. I will do this soon.

[Near]

Bitmap is so scummy. For being so insistent on Greywing. Without much reason. Instinct is it?

[Near]

Vendetta or not, give him time to respond fool.

[Near]

Although, I don't remember ever hammering anyone in my games except for the very first game i played on here like 4 years ago. Tempted

[Near]

We have results from one single night. It is still difficult to say whether there is SK or not. I agree that, I would lean toward no SK based on the kill action alone.

But based on scuminess alone, I think Bit is scum and no one else in the PR is. So this would translate to existence of SK.

So two different sets of evidence leading to different conclusions regarding existence of SK. I admit, neither set of evidence is full proof. I also admit that night result evidence pointing to absence of SK may be more reliable than me finding Bit scuminess. It has been outlined a few times regarding possibility of night result from a set-up that includes SK. One rather acceptable possibility is that SK simply did not submit his kill.

Also, starting today, the SK who claimed PR would almost never contribute to an additional night kill. As long as the town mindset is: lynch VT until we see 2 people die, SK among PR pool would just sit quietly at night. This is because SK advertising his kill power means that the townies would lynch from the PR pool until at least one scum flips. Also, SK means that there has to be 1 or 3 scums in the PR. And SK among PR means, there must be 0 or 2 additional mafia scums among PR with him. There really can't be 2 more mafia scums in addition to SK in the PR unless we assume something miraculous like SK bit and DMS/JF scum. Thus, in the reasonable mind of SK, revealing the second SK is basically committing suicide.

In addition, sitting quietly at night would be a very good strategy for the "doctor" SK. While it is obviously beneficial in a normal set up for SK to actively look for and target scums, unless scums have great SK reads, they would not target one of the doctors except with their special power kill (stronghold or bus-drive). First, there is nothing really for SK to stop the scums from their power kill even if SK actively tried to look for scums. Second, as long as SK isn't targeted by scums, he can guarantee avoid getting targeted pretty much rest of the game because scums probably don't want to waste their NK power in the doctors protecting each other. On the other hand, SK can potentially resurface after we lynch the last mafia scum after LYLO to win the game.

One last point. So basically two night kills means that SK is among VT and one of the doctors is mafia scum.

And keep in mind that above analysis only applies if there is SK. There may or may not be. I am just saying, if there is one, it would be difficult to know especially if SK is among PR.

[Near]

100%?

[Near]

Bit protects JF
JF jails one of VT
Near protects DMS
DMS protects Near

Agreed?

[Near]

I am willing to cast my vote on

BK

. Willing to hammer.

Let's flip.

[Near]

LOL. I forgot there is roleblock. This is a disaster then. Even if they used stronghold last night, roleblock and bus-drive still remaining probably. There is no such thing as a ring of protection among doctors.

Why wasn't this brought up earlier?

Almost want to kill DMS for this.

[Near]

EDBWOP: I almost want to kill RBD for this, not DMS

[Near]

Actually, fuck it. I want to kill Uber

Vote Uber

[Near]

Lol. Too easy.

Unvote

Vote Greywing

Uber and BK are confirmed town, if Greywing flips scum, which I expect.

[Near]

UNVOTE: RachMarie
VOTE: BK201

@RBD, Near: Follow the wagon. I think we can agree that Uber and BK aren't both scum. If this ends up being a mislynch, we autolynch Uber tomorrow as it would basically confirm him as scum. One of the two is definitely scum. Why not go for it?

This post says it all. Greywing tries to set-up a mislynch on Uber once BK flips town. Thus Greywing scum means Uber and BK town. Kill this with fire.

[Near]

Bit protects JF
JF jails one of VT
Near protects DMS
DMS protects Near

Agreed?

You are retarded.

By telling the docs who to protect, we tell the scum exactly who to fucking kill.

Do you realize that the only way the previously discussed circle of protection would work is if doctors protect each other in a circle. This was what RBD and others have been talking about as the main advantage of mass claiming. And this could have potentially worked without roleblock, which I missed somehow.

But I do realize that this plan would no longer work with roleblock, because we are guaranteed to lose exactly two doctors this way as opposed to one.

[Near]

LOL. I forgot there is roleblock. This is a disaster then. Even if they used stronghold last night, roleblock and bus-drive still remaining probably. There is no such thing as a ring of protection among doctors.

WELL NO SHIT

Why wasn't this brought up earlier?

You mean the possibility that SOME OF THE DOCTORS MIGHT BE SCUM!?!?!?!

Are you fucking serious right now, Near?

I don't want to have to respond unless it contributes to our scum hunting, but I don't understand what you mean here. When I asked why this wasn't brought up, I meant why were people still talking about circle of protection if they knew that mafia get roleblocck/stronghold/bus-drive. Granted, they must have used up stronghold or bus-drive, DMS or BK or RBD who seemed to understand the set-up quite well did not point out how the planned circle of protection cannot possibly work. IT has nothing to do with possibility that some of the doctors may be scum. What i meant was, even if all 3 claimed doctors are real, we can no longer form a protection circle because scums have two remaining abilities to take us down.

And if there is a scum among doctors, it is Bit. I almost guarantee u that.

[Near]

Again, we know if there is one scum among doctors/JK, there has to be SK.

If there is no SK, then Bit is prob town. If there is no SK, bit scum also means DMS scum.

Anyway, important thing is that we lynch obvious scum in Greywing. Flip this scum.

[Near]

Bit, is BK still scum?

[Near]

Damn. Protect me still someone

[Near]

targeted DMS

[Near]

I don't know. I was reading earlier posts.

Plan: Sleep now and wait for scums to kill.

I protect DMS. DMS protects me. Bitmap you can die hopefully.

Assuming there is no SK, we can allow scums to target first.

Yes?

[Near]

Bitmap, am I town or scum?

[Near]

I don't know. You scum means DMS is prob scum. WHich doesn't make any sense though DMS claimed doctor after his scum partner claimed doctor? If you are scum and DMS is town, then there is SK among VT. SK among VT would have shot someone, if anything, to lynch you.

Thus I think you are town. Unfortunately. You are scummy in my eyes, but there is no other way to explain this.

[Near]

Do you think scums used bus-drive or strongman kill last night on JF?

[Near]

The only other explanation is that it is SK not scum team that shot JF. Scum team that includes you knows that there is SK among VT because you are the only scum among PR. Thus, by not shooting, you are misleading town to think there is no SK, thus ensuring your survival.

[Near]

But then, JF should not have been SK's primary target since he was pretty much confirmed townie. This weakens above possibility.

[Near]

Thus, I don't think there is no SK.

We drew 0 T's, which happens less than 1% of the time.

There are 3 scums among VTs. Who to kill, Bit?

[Near]

EDBWOP: THus I dont think there is SK

[Near]

I understood what you meant regarding RBD.

If UN is scum, you think BK is scum also. Who would be the third?

Why would UN defend you so hard, but suspect the other two doctors?

[Near]

Did UN ever state why he thought you were town? i.e. reference Open 408?

[Near]

OMG It's Psyche!!

Vote Psyche

JK dude lol. Don't run away from me.

Unvote

[Near]

Why did you choose to protect me, though. Did you not think DMS is confirmed doctor? And you had possible scum read on me.

[Near]

JK I guess is much more powerful role than the doctors in the absence of any town investigative roles. JK can not only protect, but also role block.

If there was a detective or a role cop, doctors could be arguably more powerful than JK. But at this point, any role block would favor town, never scum, so I think JF was targeted. Also JF was much more of a confirmed townie than Bitmap.

Sorry i answered instead of Bitmap, but I do not think it makes sense to go after Bitmap at this point. If anything, if there is SK, it's probably Bitmap... in which case, we still shouldn't lynch Bitmap just yet.

[Near]

DMS, don't abandon us.

[Near]

LOL, did I just read RBD say she caught two scums. I am so eager to hear her case.

[Near]

who?

[Near]

I believe DMS to be town. I am repeating here, but he left doctor breadcrumb and he claimed doctor after two players already claimed doctor. It would have been a risky move because any additional doctor claim would mean one of the doctors is for sure scum. Also, having the first people claim doctor is rather unlikely and scum would have been hesitant to participate in seemingly very unlikely claim.

In addition, just look at his reaction to RBD. He wants to crush his balls. LOL. I laughed so hard at his posts. DMS is town.

Also, if there is SK among VT do you think that the SK was intentionally not shooting? SK in PR may withhold his shot, but SK in VT would not. Also, if SK shot, JF would not be SK's primary target... He would have tried to target one of the scums from the VT pool.

But if there some how is SK, Bit is either scum or SK.

I think we should lynch Rach. She is just lurking way too much.

[Near]

Eh. Remembering the inte lynch... there were others who voted for inte, but it was lead by RBD.

Pretty much everything else RBD said also failed, including mass claim.

May be willing to vote RBD. At least I don't think I want to cast my vote on Kondi, who RBD is voting.

I will do some reading soon... hopefully there can be some figuring out that can be done.

[Near]

Fuck it

I'm going to vote Rach. Any objections?

[Near]

Wait, wait. Trevor, please unvote.

[Near]

If there are 3 scums, wouldn't the game have been over? With only 6 players left total?

[Near]

I thought 50% is majority.

So this means there is SK?

[Near]

Otherwise, nothing could prevent the scums reaching the 50%+ majority

[Near]

How come there has been a single kill every single day?

Bit what you doing!!

[Near]

So Trevor is scum.

[Near]

Wait never mind. Trevor is not scum.

[Near]

Bit or Trevor is SK. Other one is town.

[Near]

Hahaha Hi Bit

[Near]

I told you mass claiming was bad idea. There was no underlying logic behind it. RBD's proposal for mass claim lacked any elementary logic, I don't know why people bought it. I wanted to see it fail in epic proportion, and it did

[Near]

Bit, I think scums used up all of their powers. Do you really have night protection?

[Near]

Who did scum target night 1?

[Near]

How do you know they have roleblock?

[Near]

IF a player gets roleblocked, does he get notified "you were roleblocked last night"?

[Near]

They are lying. Psyche would never actually say that if they had RB

[Near]

And RBD's confirmation "hey you shouldn't have told him that" makes it obvious that they don't have it.

[Near]

What ability did you pick?

[Near]

Pscyhe, then tell me what powers you have used and when?

[Near]

No I skimmed.

[Near]

And you used that last night?

[Near]

Psyche, who did you target last night?

[Near]

OK. I need trevor to get here.

[Near]

Trevor where are you? I need you now.

[Near]

OK Bit, the problem of me publicly deciding to protect you is that, scums (even if they don't have powers) will target Trevor.
So town will lose in this case.

The only way we can circumvent this is have me or Trevor, randomly protect you. Of course the one who isn't protecting Bitmap, would protect the other doctor. For me to coordinate this with Trevor, I need to communicate with him

[Near]

It will be public, but the understanding of the message can be private. I know one easy way to ensure that.

[Near]

Trevor you are here!

[Near]

Let me know when you have caught up with the posts.

[Near]

Scum claims to have role block, but they may not.

Do you mind if I ask you some personal questions? Do you like football? Tampa bay bucs?

[Near]

You know all the players in Panthers football team? Or most?

[Near]

Something similar. But scums can also do the research. I am about to ask you a very time sensitive question.

[Near]

In about 2 minutes. You do know most player's name in Panther's football?

[Near]

OK, can you keep refreshing as soon as possible. And I am going to ask you a question.

[Near]

Are you raedy, Trevor?

[Near]

It is VERY time sensitive

[Near]

Which of the following Panthers player has the #69 jersey. You only get ONE chance! Click on the URL next to the correct answer.

A. Campbell http://www.buccaneers.com/team-and-stats/roster.html
B. Bryant https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewforum.php?f=56
C. Kalili https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewforum.php?f=23
D. Hardy http://www.uroulette.com/
E. Fua http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M1g3a78 ... =g-all-pls
F. Newton http://news.yahoo.com/rare-discovery-ho ... 26504.html
G. Gross http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/cgi-bin/timer.pl
H. Nelson http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M1g3a78 ... =g-all-pls

[Near]

Let me know if you finished answer the question.

[Near]

Please remember the seconds in the website you clicked.

[Near]

If the number of seconds is between 0-30 then you protect me, and I protect Bit.
If the number of seconds is between 31-59 then I protect you, and you protect Bit.

[Near]

Not sure either, but I am not complaining. Mod's discretion I guess.

RBD, don't be a cry baby plz. I have never said something like this in this forum: but you seem like a sad, sad person.

BK won. Congrats!!

[Near]

I still don't know why Near got force-replaced.

He broke the rules by using code.

@RBD: I agree on all your points. Your scum team sucked really badly, except you. And I thought you said you knew I was the SK since Day 1? Anyways, I found it funny that your JOAT was more inactive than the mod.

What is the definition of code? Providing external links constitute as code?

[Near]

But all the information was publicly available to every single player in this game.

Again, I am not complaining at all. I can understand mod replacing a player who did something weird. But I do want to know the rules. Curiosity and I don't want to make the same mistake.

[Near]

DMS, basically what I did was post a bunch of random links. One of the link was to the online clock.

The seconds on the online clock was basically going to determine who protects who.

You can only get to the link if you answered my question. And the question was about a football player I thought Trevor was familiar with. So he could instantly click on the clock.

I would also click on the clock link after I submitted the question, so I knew what seconds he would see on his end.

[Near]

Of course a scum could also instantly click on all of the links, but unless scums figured out my intention, I thought it would have been unlikely for them to do so. Especially since I made up: "you only get one chance to answer the question"

[Near]

Bitmap, you did claim Strongman kill... did you not?

WHy did town go along with your plan...

Also, I protected BK on the night before scums claimed... If you didn't claim Strongman, I would have known it anyway.

[Near]

And to be honest, I intentionally picked the time so that Trevor would protect me and I "supposedly" would protect Bit.

Of course, my plan was to protect Trevor. So, basically we would protect each other.

I thought scums would target one of the doctors for sure, counting on the fact that we can't communicate and that the accepted plan was Trevor -> Near -> BK protection.

[Near]

Funny how the retired Docs are talking in celebratory tone.

It's because we did our job well protecting this one human being, even if he turned out to be a Bit scum.

[Near]

BTW, the most epic post I have ever seen.... DMS, your proposal to lynch your balls!!

[Near]

This 3:2:1 ending was pretty interesting, I should go analyze it fully at some point. (I thought something was off with the ending negotiations while I was reading the ending there; nice to know that Bitmap was screwing up his setup theory intentionally in order to manipulate the scum, it was a nice twist.)

@NS: The rule that Near would have violated in most rulesets is the "no provable randomness" rule, but it seems not to actually be in your ruleset. I recommend adding it (especially as it's required for Newbie games, after various ingenious sorts of abuse). That sort of townie-townie communication works by establishing a random number that both players know, so it's a provable randomness violation. (Oh, and Near, your scheme doesn't actually work; anyone can look at the timestamp on your post and compare that to all the links you gave, to figure out what the time was when they're followed. For it to work, you'd need an online clock that changed the rate at which it ticked randomly over time. But don't do that, because it violates most mod's rulesets.)

But our time stamps on mafiascum display minutes but not seconds. So, a player reading the time stamp of 9:45 could infer that I made my post from 9:50:00 to 9:50:59.

I posted my question when the online clock displayed the seconds reading of "00". So Trevor had up to 30 seconds to read and answer my question. Anyone who took more than 30 seconds to answer would have mis-aligned the random number from me.

Of course, if scums immediately discovered what I was trying to do, they could have simply recorded their time on their local clock and then figure out what the random number was.

As an aside: in this specific scenario, it didn't really matter if scums

somehow

figured out what the random number was as long as scums thought that such ploy was a two-way communication in determining who should protect Bit, rather than the reality - one way communication from me to Trevor. Scum would have figured that Trevor would have been unprotected. And I would have simply protected Trevor.

[Near]

EDBWOP: But our time stamps on mafiascum display minutes but not seconds. So, a player reading the time stamp of 9:50 could infer that I made my post from 9:50:00 to 9:50:59.

[Near]

And what is "no provable randomness" rule? I tried Googling it but no luck.

[Near]

We were at 2:1:1. Let's suppose doctors protect each other at all times.

SK targeting mafia, would result in:

1) Town win, if mafia targets a doctor
2) Town win, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Town win, if mafia targets the SK

SK targeting the doctor, would result in

1) 1:1:1, if mafia targets a doctor
2) 1:1:1, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Mafia win, if mafia targets the SK

SK not targeting anyone, would result in:

1) 2:1:1, if mafia targets a doctor
2) 2:1:1, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Town win, if mafia targets the SK

So, for SK to have any chance, SK must not target the mafia - which means, he will target doctor or not target anyone.

To get an insight on SK's and mafia's best course action, we need to analyze what could happen if we ended up at 1:1:1? No lynch could happen during the day.

At night (Keep in mind, doctor cannot save himself and his protection only has relevance if doctor protects the SK):

SK targeting the mafia, would result in:

1) SK win, if mafia targets the doctor
2) SK win, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Town win, if mafia targets the SK and doctor does not protect
4) SK win, if mafia targets SK and doctor protects SK

SK targeting the doctor, would result in:

1) Draw, if mafia targets the doctor
2) Draw, if mafia does not target anyone (same as above)
3) Mafia win, if mafia targets the SK and no protection
4) Draw, if mafia targets the SK and doctor protects SK

SK not targeting anyone, would result in:

1) Draw, if mafia targets the doctor
2) 1:1:1, if mafia does not target anyone
3) Mafia win, if mafia targets the SK and no protection
4) 1:1:1, if mafia targets the SK and doctor protects SK

If we are at 1:1:1, as long as we assume that draw is better outcome than a loss, SK does not have a clear course of action. If mafia and doctor would act in a random manner, SK should probably target the the mafia. This way, SK would win majority of the time (5 out of 6 games).

But from standalone mafia's point of view, if SK and doctor would act in a random manner, mafia targeting the SK would give him the best chance of winning.

But players' actions are not random. Individually, the SK's best course of action seems to be targeting the mafia. Individually, mafia's best course of action seems to be targeting the SK. But in 100% of such situation, neither SK or mafia wins - in fact, town would win instead (as long as doctor does not protect).

Like it has been pointed out, 1:1:1 would be a prisoner's dilemma and it is hard to predict what the outcome of such situation is going to be. There is some chance of each faction coming out ahead as well as ending in a draw.

So going back to 2:1:1 (at the top), SK's goal HAS to be to go in to 1:1:1. All other outcomes end in a loss (or repeat of 2:1:1). The only way for SK to go in to 1:1:1 is by targeting the doctor. But SK can't just announce that he will target the doctor, because mafia will target the SK and win the game.

So, SK must threaten to choose between A) targeting the doctor and B) not targeting anyone. This way, mafia targeting the SK in scenario B) would result in mafia loss (and town win). This would force mafia to choose C) not targeting anyone OR D) targeting the SK.

Combination of
A) and C) results in 1:1:1 (which is what SK wants)
A) and D) results in mafia win
B) and C) repeats 2:1:1
B) and D) ends in town win

So, it seems that the possibilities of the outcome are complex and depends on chance. SK, for sure, though has the shortest end of the straw as he needs to first move the game into 1:1:1 configuration - an attempt that could result in instant town or mafia win.

Point out the mistakes please. This is actually very interesting to me.

[Near]

But RBD, RM's words cannot be used to predict her actions. It entirely possible that all three factions were satisfied with a draw at 2:1:1.

But it's also possible that Bit would try to win the game out right at 1:1:1 (and possibly lose the game trying). This is because at 1:1:1, RM's action is no longer predictable based on her previous threat that she will target the SK.

At 1:1:1, if both SK and mafia followed the best course of action assuming random actions from other factions, then town will win 100%.

Which is exactly the reason why SK and mafia do not have an easy decision to make.

Which is exactly the reason, at 1:1:1 why mafia may think about targeting the doctor or not targeting anyone at all. And we go around in circle.

SK may win, Mafia may win. Town may win. Or it could be a draw.

[Near]

Isn't playing for a draw when you can play to win breaking site rules?

Even if this were true, it's so complex.

At 1:1:1, the only course of action that mafia can perform to win (rather than to draw) is to target the SK.
Similarly, the only course of action that SK can perform to win (rather than to draw) is to target the mafia.

BUT both mafia and SK knows this. Mafia knows that SK has to target the mafia. SK knows that mafia has to target the SK.

And they both knows that such combination of actions result in town win.

WHICH MEANS. they are both playing to lose. And playing to lose would be a violation of the site rules.

So their actions must be randomized, so it gives them some chance at win or draw.

[Near]

Hmm, the very first case is different from my analysis; if the townies

don't

cross-protect, then suddenly the Mafia shooting at a townie gives an SK win if the SK shoots the Mafia. It's thus in town's interest to persuade the SK that they won't cross-protect, but even though it's to their advantage to prove they will, I don't see any way for them to actually do that. So your analysis is correct here, not mine.

The correct play for the SK is to no-kill with a very high probability (say 99%), and kill a townie the rest of the time. (And make this plan known to the other players.) That way, the Mafia can't dare to shoot the SK, because they'd be risking an instant loss if they did. Eventually, they'll hit that 1% chance, and kill a townie, and the Mafia will no-kill or whiff on a doctor in the process; they can't possibly know when the chance is going to be hit. (Use a 10% or even 20% chance if you want to speed the process up, but this raises the risk of the Mafia trying to get lucky, which is bad for you no matter whether they time it right or not.) In other words, the game will go to 1:1:1. (Also of note: you could simply lynch a townie to speed the process up; no player would have any objections to that, as the Mafia and town can't do anything about that, and the SK doesn't want to do anything about it.) So we'll end up in 1:1:1 for sure.

I believe 1:1:1 to be usually a town win but not always; it depends strongly on when the individual players can get online. (I've changed my mind somewhat from my previous writeup of the strategy, due to noticing extra strategies for both town and scum.) I'll go write up my thoughts on it in MD some time.

Excellent point! As long as SK submits "no-kill" almost always (and since mafia knows this), this game should go into 1:1:1.

[Near]

Here's the excel spread sheet with outcomes based on different strategies from each faction. Strategy of each faction is defined by probabilities of different night actions.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... DhqSEFGUEE

[Near]

RBD. You are correct that mafia has no hope of winning unless they target the SK.

But SK also has no hope of winning unless they target the mafia.

In which case, town will win 100%.

And since both mafia and SK know this, they are not playing to win if they target each other all the time.

[Near]

RBD. You are correct that mafia has no hope of winning unless they target the SK.

But SK also has no hope of winning unless they target the mafia.

Thats why its a draw. Neither can kill the other without the town winning while at the same time neither can be lynched.

I spent a good couple hours trying to see if there was a salvageable win and I really dont think there was one that doesnt include "and somepony throws the game by accident" which is what happened, but not in our favor.

We are talking about 1:1:1 here?

So SK knowing that mafia can't always target the SK, allows SK to act. For example, if SK thought that Mafia would not target anyone for sure, SK can simply target the mafia to win. But SK doesn't know this, so it seems complicated.

At 2:1:1, whether the game ends in a draw, I guess, is up to SK. But I don't know if SK should be satisfied with a draw or move the game into 1:1:1. Need some advanced game theory insight into this...