Newbie 1289 - Game Over!


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Post Post #244 (isolation #0) » Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:35 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

Given what it appears the circumstances of this going on hold and getting replacements, I don't think I'll attempt to read this game, well not the later part where they came into it anyway.

First lets get rid of this vote that is in the wrong place.
unvote
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Post Post #278 (isolation #1) » Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:50 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Deltabacon wrote:My strong townreads so far include Tierce, Jason and buldermar,

So if JasonWazza is a strong town read of yours now, why were you pushing Tierce to explain why they had an obvtown read on that slot for most of the game?
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Post Post #283 (isolation #2) » Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:54 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

I would say the best course of action is to continue with that plan of lynching one of me or leonshade, however since there would be some chance that's one of us isn't scum, we would have to think about it tomorrow some more if delta were to flip town.

I am confused about his ploy, since I don't see both scum avoiding the wagon of the scummiest town player during day 1, possibly one of them would, but I don't see his ploy working to get both scum disinterested for a day.
Up until the request for more activity and let disappearing, I probably wouldn't even have thought of deltabacon as scummy had I been playing this game from the start.
- but then I haven't read everyone else, just delta's ISO to try and work out why he was the choice for the lynch today.

I am happy to go along with Tierce's plan.
VOTE: deltabacon

and now I see that I was ninja'd, my post still stands except for this extra line here saying that I aware that Tierce has almost said the same thing as me before I could say it.
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Post Post #294 (isolation #3) » Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:31 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

Sorry but how do you have a good case on your biggest scumreads?

Deltabacon wrote:
I believe that the lack of desire to lynch yet, shown by both Leonshade and Cheery Dog are the largest indicators of scum I have seen thus far in the game, and I am inclined to pursue a lynch on one of them today. A lynch on me will flip Vanilla Townie, so no great loss, however I think it would be a travesty to not get scum at this stage of the game, in such certain circumstances.


Do tell me when you find someone who has just replaced into a game without reading it beforehand wanting a lynch straight away.
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Post Post #295 (isolation #4) » Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:33 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

You've practically just claimed your reads to be the game as Tierce minus yourself.
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Post Post #299 (isolation #5) » Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:55 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

When I offered I had seen what had been happening, and I was expecting a restart of the game so I never bothered reading it, also in case I was too slow to offer.

Cautiousness is a playstyle choice and is not a true indicator of one's alignment, unless they're meta is always cautious as scum and crazy as town.

I unvoted when the game was reopened, because I do not want to be on a possible mislynch wagon when I don't know the reasons that the vote was originally placed there.
I know I had a predecessor that may have had good reason to place votes where they want to, however I can't read their mind and therefore I need to work out for myself who I would like to see lynched.
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Post Post #309 (isolation #6) » Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:20 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

Deltabacon wrote:So you didn't bother reading the game at all, you all just replaced in anyway?

There is always a chance that when you offer to replace someone else gets the slot first. and when I'm already in 10+ games, I'm not going to bother reading a game that I might not actually replace into.
I'll generally read the last page or so before offering to replace in, but the start of the game may not always happen.
I don't bother reading a game thread I'm replacing into until after I know myself to be alive, I'm not going to go through the trouble I went with replacing into a 50 page mini normal to be killed before I could post again.
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Post Post #324 (isolation #7) » Sun Oct 21, 2012 12:41 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Since Delta flipped town, I will now be assuming that it is a buldermar/leonshade scum team.
This could explain the the jumps onto bulder's slot from both leon's and my slots.
In that they were wanting a quick town win.
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Post Post #353 (isolation #8) » Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:06 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

I just had a quick look at the cheaters posts, and it appears they have a large ego they wanted to fill, they kept just saying they (as their other slot) had good points.

So yes I'm fine calling them an egotistical idiot, and will be looking at possible lynches from the other 4 slots. I'll actually have a look over them now.

I can't really be bothered with reading all of buldermar's walls, so I'll stick with that town read other people have given him. I don't see any scum writing out that much to make their points.

Airick10 wrote:I know this looks like a scummy move, especially to Delta's eyes as I'm backing off the buldermar lynch and not voting on Delta. Frankly, I do not have a solid scum read at this point and as I said, I don't want to vote on somebody who I do not think is scum.

Why is not voting on delta a scummy move to delta's eyes?

I don't see Tierce as scum working that hard on getting delta lynched and then backing off Leon/me after delta flipped town. If scum, she would have known delta was town and would therefore have continued with the plans of lynching leon/me.

I'm also unsure of Vendetta, but since they've been replaced I can't ask anything about what they've said, though nothing stands out as making them obvscum, so they're only my second guess via PoE.
I'm yet to get any read on Xalxe's play.
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Post Post #354 (isolation #9) » Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:08 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

in case that wasn't clear, Airick is now my main suspect, with that post I just quoted as my current reasoning.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #10) » Tue Oct 23, 2012 2:19 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

Besides their second post and a pressure vote regarding a vote Tierce placed, I can't see Tierce as one of redrabbit's scumreads, am I missing something?
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Post Post #379 (isolation #11) » Tue Oct 23, 2012 4:34 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Xalxe wrote:It's funny because you ignored me.

I believe that just shows he is true to his word... but it's not something that needs to be happening, although he has said he is doing this, it's still extremely anti-town to be ignoring people.
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Post Post #386 (isolation #12) » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:02 am

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Airick10 wrote:Refer to post #255. Delta says he is playing scummy to lure scum to defend him. His theory was that since buldermar had the other votes, scum most likely lies between them all (vendetta, myself, CD, and Leonshade).

My vote was on buldermar due to his request to Tierce to replace out of the game which I thought was quite a scummy move. I explained in my post #271 that I accepted his response and did not continue with the request on Tierce. So I unvoted.

I unvoted buldermar (off Delta's suspecion list in his eyes) and always believed Delta to be town (defending him). Thus, I would imagine in Delta's eyes my unvote was a scummy move.

I had forgotten what delta's apparent play was (mainly because I doubt it would have worked like he wanted - but I guess we'll find that out at at this games completion).
So I guess I never applied the question to context, though I do still find it interesting that you applied someone elses views to your own movements - but I guess people do that, and I would say it is alignment neutral.
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Post Post #396 (isolation #13) » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:23 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

why did I just attempt to read this game again, now I'm even more confused.

I'm just going to go with my assumption at the start of this day, unless something else presents itself.

VOTE: leonshade
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Post Post #399 (isolation #14) » Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:56 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

We still shouldn't have this much inactivity for one week into day two even if we had three weeks for it.
requesting prods on all players except tierce
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Post Post #406 (isolation #15) » Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:05 pm

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Tierce wrote:Cheery Dog: Stop carrying the banner for a dead case. It's no longer valid and you are better than that. Who is scum?

Everyone is :shifty:

If I believe in it possibily being true then I'm happy with it, when people post more I may be able to get more out of them, but currently that's my largeest lead.

Otherwise airick because announcing you are doing something that is scummy looking to someone else still just looks weird.
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Post Post #408 (isolation #16) » Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:29 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Yes but I'm not currently happy joining the wagon you are leading after yesterday's delta flip.
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Post Post #411 (isolation #17) » Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:05 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Airick10: Last visited:Sun Oct 28, 2012 5:31 pm
that's 17 hours ago.

(if it helps I feel that I should check facts you are giving me)

I'm not going after Leonshade because delta flipped town and had him as a read, I'm going after him because I have that slot as possible scum. If any of the slots the idiot occupied are scum I would believe it is the last one they joined.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #18) » Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:36 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

I know my slot is town, and lthough I know the cheater is an idiot, I'm just assuming that they weren't stupid enough to have an a scum slot and then bring another account into a known town slot - and given that paperspirit obvtowned Jason's slot (the only way I see it possible that it may not actually be town is if you (Tierce) are his partner and you told him in pregame chat to vote no lynch - but it doesn't feel like he copied something you said in pregame chat).
Then with the switch off delta and onto buldermar with two of the slots is telling me he must have found out the scumteam.

I played with Natural_river (thankfully without any other accounts) in a think twice game, he was a goon and voted his godfather. I'm therefore assuming he is likely to vote off a new found scum partner.
If Leonshade is scum the partner is buldermar.

[and there's the answer to whether airick is around or not - I don't need any more proof that him posting]
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Post Post #418 (isolation #19) » Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:55 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Tierce wrote:@Cheery Dog: That logic is actually quite interesting--you're saying that our lovely cheater kept replacing into the game until he got a scum slot, to then eliminate the scumteam through his Town ones?

That is my opinion on what has happened yes.
but there is the option the cheater hadn't got a scum slot yet.

I also find oyvo's play in Micro 38 to have been different there than here, and I know they were a VT there.

but then I guess anygame you play that has Thor in it is probably different to any other game you have..

and now I want to UNVOTE: because now I'm second guessing myself and leaving my vote out while doing that has led me to trouble before.
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Post Post #433 (isolation #20) » Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:10 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

Airick10 wrote:You are drawing conclusions off a gut feeling. I am drawing conclusions off information that we already know. What more do I need to push on vendetta/Xalxe on? You've said it yourself, I am voting on Xalxe based on math alone. How is that in anyway a cheap vote? I consider it the most justified vote based upon the facts.

This is a game of mafia not math.

Do you have any other suspicions of the slot other than what delta's theory brought you?
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Post Post #441 (isolation #21) » Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:20 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Your post 372 only has an alignment claim and no the role claim you were just asked for

I do agree that we haven't got enough out of this day, but I'm not sure how that's going to change. I don't have anything to add at the moment, but I'm not going to hammer right now as we may still be able to use these last 3 days to get more information out of other suspects.

I don't believe airick and Xalxe to be a likely team, I can only really see Leonshade as being in a team with buldermar based on what I think may have been happening with the cheater.
Tierce is the main pusher of your lynch, and I can possibly see that team.
Jason is still town.

Given those thoughts, and since I am currently not wanting to hammer.
VOTE: buldermar
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Post Post #447 (isolation #22) » Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:52 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

because I know next to nothing about when bussing should occur.
But I don't feel that this would be the likely time that Xalxe and airick would have decided to bus with other options available.

It's not that high a possibility, but I see it as more possible than Xalxa/Airick.
I still have hope we can use the last few days of this Day for information and I'm not happy to hammer right now.
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Post Post #451 (isolation #23) » Fri Nov 02, 2012 12:35 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

Xalxe wrote:
buldermar, Cheery Dog, Leonshade
: Explain to me why you're not hammering Airick, and who should be lynched instead.

Or vote Airick.

I'm not hammering Airick yet becuase I am hoping we'll be able to get more information and discover a plausible buddy before someone ends up dying tonight. I'm currently thinking buldermar which is why I voted him. (although I probably won't get anything out of him since he's just gone V/LA)
I will hammer it before the deadline, but while we've still got a few days left I'm going to leave it sitting there.
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Post Post #455 (isolation #24) » Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:03 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

I don't know what is left of the day, seeing as I haven't found anything yet (although I've also failed to look)
I'm kinda just hoping there is something. If you feel there will be nothing, feel free to hammer.

@buldermar; nothing specific, I guess I was just seeing how you reacted to me placing my vote on you
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Post Post #460 (isolation #25) » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:43 pm

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Given the change from not wanting to lynch Leon/me yesterday, I assume Tierce investigated him to be innocent.
Given the obvtown from page one on Jason's slot, buldermar/Xalxe team?

Although I'm not entirely sure about how obvtown wanting to start with a no-lynch is, I'm going to have to go through a few more old newbie games since I found one during the night (1273) where one of the scum team agreed with a town member that no-lynch was a good option.
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Post Post #462 (isolation #26) » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:32 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Tierce wrote:I have to review a few things. As of now, I am not interested in lynching Leonshade; I'll have to mull on things a bit to see if I would ever support a Cheery Dog lynch.

This opening of the day post yesterday is why I believe it was Leon that was investigated.

I realise I am not clear except to myself, nor are you for that matter.
I will not be voting either of my current suspicions based on what I believe to be a breadcrumb of results until everyone else has checked in. and then we can all work out if I am reading this a breadcrumb correctly or not.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #27) » Thu Nov 08, 2012 1:08 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

JasonWazza wrote:To me (and this is likely just me) it seem like her plan fell through when delta flipped town (the big fight over her massive change in reads) and her plan after that wasn't necessarily to follow her delta scum plan, hence why I'm not thinking Leon is cleared, my thought is she said she was overly surprised of RR's death because he was suspect and she was overly trying to analyze his kill possibly because he was her invest (if that makes any sense whatsoever)

I believe her plan also went through with delta's town flip and I think she decided to investigate one of us to see where it was going.
I didn't realise what had caused the change, but my mind established that with , after I had carried on my theory of a possible buldermar-leonshade team, I suspected it then which caused my unvote (second thoughts) in post 419.

In any case, I will not be supporting a Leonshade lynch today.
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Post Post #469 (isolation #28) » Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:31 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Xalxe wrote:First of all, NOBODY VOTE IT IS LYLO AND WE DON'T WANT A QUICKHAMMER. Now that that's out of the way even though 4/5 of us are experienced...

but I want to vote now..

Not really as I don't want a quickhammer to fall if I'm wrong with my team-guess at the moment and I choose the one that wasn't partners with Jason.
I'm going to go check more completed games to see if that obvtown call on Jason's slot based off his first post is actually true that only town actually does that.

@Leon, since two of us have declared you the most probable as having been investigated, what is your take on who the scumteam is likely to be?
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Post Post #470 (isolation #29) » Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:07 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Looking at the all the games on the first page in the completed newbie games section (only page 1 of each), I found the following games where somebody to vote no-lynch was mafia, so that 'obvtown' tell is now worthless to me.
newbie 1137, newbie 1127 & Newbie 1107

otherwise there was a game where no-lyncher was town
one I don't know the alignment of the no-lyncher because of the march crash
another where town voted no-lynch and mafia followed also voting it. (which is the same as the 1273 game I mentioned earlier)
I'd link these as well but I closed the tabs after I looked through them expecting it to be a possible true 'obvtown' tell. (they were all higher numbers than the three I just linked above)

And since that no-lynch=obvtown theory is disproven, it can explain why someone who had been called obvtown by the IC survived being nightkilled.
Although it doesn't explain why the cheater wanted too town slots - I'm going to assume that fish-riding-a-bike was actually a sibling of natural_river, which would explain the posting differentiations.
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Post Post #473 (isolation #30) » Fri Nov 09, 2012 1:14 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

buldermar wrote:In Newbie 1137, the guy voting no lynch played 1-2 games before.
Newbie 1127 is a good example.
Newbie 1107 is a good example.

I don't follow what you deduce from your assumption of them being siblings.

I never actually looked at what the rest of the posts contained, just the vote no-lynch.

I deduced that that might be why they replaced in as town (my slot), then possible scum (Jason) and then again with another town slot (Leon).
It doesn't actually give me that much faith, but it has told my mind why Jason can still be on the scumteam.
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Post Post #476 (isolation #31) » Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:30 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

If we manage to successfully lynch scum today, there's a chance if a doctor exists that we'll actually be in MYLO if we don't massclaim.
I do agree that a JK claim would be useful though, as we would be able to get a confirmed town if we lynch a scum today.
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Post Post #480 (isolation #32) » Sun Nov 11, 2012 12:13 pm

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Everyone has posted now, seems we don't have a jk
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Post Post #481 (isolation #33) » Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:18 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

I'm going to throw down a vote if we aren't getting more dicussion happening soon.
Otherwise we're going to have a nothing day again.

Though I don't know where I want to place it yet, I guess I'll look through ISOs some more.
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Post Post #485 (isolation #34) » Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:51 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

Well fine steal the first vote of the day.
I will not be joining it yet.
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Post Post #487 (isolation #35) » Tue Nov 13, 2012 12:46 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Also not joining that wagon at this stage.

Btw I don't think I should be clear just because I'm not being the second vote on wagon in LYLO.
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Post Post #490 (isolation #36) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:02 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

*if you need more proof of my towniness/can only be possibly scum with Xalxe*

I'm tempted to put a vote on Bulder to let Leon decide, but then it could be Xalxe/Jason awho may be tying to trick me into doing that.
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Post Post #493 (isolation #37) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:41 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

Leonshade wrote:
@CD:
Do you think bulder is more likely to be scum, or would you just vote for him to make either option possible?

I've leaning towards Xalxe scum and was actually going to be my vote had buldermar not voted first, but I haven't figured out who the partner is yet. Although if it is true that Xalxe is scum, then his partner has decided to bus him.
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Post Post #495 (isolation #38) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:45 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

Wait that never answered the question, derp. (well I guess it answers no if you look into it)

Going off earlier opinions, it's Xalxe/Buldermar, though I still can't discount Jason.

I'll have to go look at the interactions some more, but I think it's still more likely to be buldermar being the partner than Jason.
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Post Post #496 (isolation #39) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:50 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

dammit the post I remembered from yesterday as possibly indicating a partnership with Xalxe turned out to be airicks. I should remember who actually posted stuff like that.

I'll have to look harder.
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Post Post #498 (isolation #40) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 2:43 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

One where Jason is town.
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Post Post #519 (isolation #41) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 2:25 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

This argument is boring and is making me think you to are still partners.

@bulder, Xalxe is only confirmed scum to you (and probably Jason), the rest of us don't actually know your alignment.
buldermar wrote:
Cheery Dog wrote:I'm tempted to put a vote on Bulder to let Leon decide, but then it could be Xalxe/Jason awho may be tying to trick me into doing that.
This is bad even if you're 95% sure that Leonshade is town, because you know your own true alignment 100% of the time.

Yes I know I'm town, I also believe Tierce breadcrumbed a clear on Leon, which means he is also town. While if I did do it, it would be a gambit since I have no idea of Jason's alignment.

@Leon, also note they both voted each other, and looking at bulermar's vote, he put vendetta onto L-1 for a silly reason

Also I as a townie announced that I would be putting a vote down soon, which buldermar responded with by a vote down on Xalxe. Now the question I'm mostly asking myself is if scum would be benefit by voting a partner when he knows a town member has just offered to place down a vote in lylo (although not knowing who I was going to vote for), or putting it on a town to try and convince me that was the place I wanted to be voting. If buldermar is town, does he benefit by stealing the first vote in LYLO from what he posted earlier as the third most likely scum and risk making the town lose by a carelessly placed vote?

Also from what I know of Jason's scum game having played with him before, if he has a partner, they're part of his called team but he doesn't vote for them. I don't think he is that likely to have changed from that strategy since this would be his second scum game and he won by following it last time.

Therefore I've now decided that a Jason/Xalxe team is unlikely and I will
VOTE: buldermar

Though I do think it is most likely Xalxe/bulermar currently, out of the two and based on research I have just done, buldermar is the more likely scum out of the two.
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Post Post #522 (isolation #42) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 8:46 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

If you are scum, then you have just done what I said you do as scum
If you're not scum, fine & dandy, we've got both scum on L-1 in LYLO.
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Post Post #525 (isolation #43) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:37 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

buldermar wrote:
Cheery Dog wrote:@bulder, Xalxe is only confirmed scum to you (and probably Jason), the rest of us don't actually know your alignment.
Obviously - what's your point? I still have to analyse the game from what I know.

I stating why you having a confirmed scum doesn't mean it's not confirmed scum to everyone else.

buldermar wrote:The order of the votes is irrelevant. I fail to understand the point you're trying to make. Could you explain why the order would not be irrelevant?

If you are scum, you would know that I am town. You would not know who I was going to vote (could have been any of Jason/you/Xalxe at that time), if I picked the one that was town, you would be able to quickhammer with the other.

buldermar wrote:
Cheery Dog wrote:Though I do think it is most likely Xalxe/bulermar currently, out of the two and based on research I have just done, buldermar is the more likely scum out of the two.
What research led to this conclusion?

Researching my memory of Jason's play in 1276.
If he is not scum with Xalxe by why of Jason's meta (which he has also just proved by not hammering you), therefore since that both scum are within you/Xalxe/Jason, you're now confirmed scum to me. (for those not me, there's a still a small possibly I'm scum with Xalxe)
Leon is now doubly confirmed town for not hammering either of the wagons as well as the cop breadcrumb already pointed out.
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Post Post #527 (isolation #44) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:07 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

buldermar wrote:
Yes - why would you state this? I never claimed it would.

Because the way you said it was referring to him being confirmed scum for everyone. (while I realise there are no newbies here that are likely to be fooled, it's still something I felt needed pointed out)

buldermar wrote:In that case there would be incentive only as scum to wait with the vote, and incentive only as town to place the vote immediately, right? Sorry, but I'm still not following.

That's why I put it forward to myself in question format, I was listing that options of what might have caused you to vote there, and trying to figure out the motivation behind you doing it. I can see what you might gain from both the first two options still, I cannot find any town motivation for doing it (and that's not only because by voting you I have confirmed you to be scum, though that does help eliminate the paranoia that there was something I missed).

buldermar wrote:I don't mean to completely undermine your meta, but comparing to just one game seems unreliable.
When there is only one game (and a recent winning one at that), that's the best I can have on meta, it turned out to be fruitful.
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Post Post #532 (isolation #45) » Fri Nov 16, 2012 6:58 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

It's proved you're not scum with Xalxe.
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Post Post #534 (isolation #46) » Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:40 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

I'm always timid with votes in LYLO (unless PoE has left me with the obvious scum like in futurama mafia)

I would probably have done the same thing and ended up voting Xalxe based on how you did it last time. (though now I see you've got another completed scum game in newbie 1285, which I didn't know when I posted where you did vote your partner, not that you named a team there as far as I'm aware (because team naming on day 1 is weird).
Though I may also have ended up hammering due to the reason I thought buldermar was the scummier option besides my history with Jason was that he had responded to the threat of me placing a vote by placing a vote himself.

I'm also placing my thoughts out in the open.
new question we get to try and answer
Why did scum leave Tierce alive night 1? when she had considered the options of her dying that night would be to continue the plan of lynching me/Leon if delta had flipped scum with the if "I'm alive tomorrow this may change"
Do we have new scum, (which if vendatta, one of the team was inactive) deciding to wifom town into trying to lynch the IC before of a delta town flip, or is a team afraid of possible protection to the IC. (or both)
Possibly also they didn't think we would go through with the plan had the leader of it (being Tierce) died.
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Post Post #536 (isolation #47) » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:00 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

I believe Xalxe to be more likely buldermar's partner, but I'm currently not ruling out the chance that's it is you.

but this discussion probably isn't helping me anyway.
damn LYLO, I'm going to go back through trying to read for the partner.
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Post Post #537 (isolation #48) » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:14 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Ok let's try questions now.
JasonWazza wrote:OK Airicks analysis seems town to me.

Buldermar i think you need to get over the Xalxe stuff for the good of the town.

Not quite sure what i think of everyone else atm, but Tierce still feels slightly scummy to me, and she is the best i have got.


JasonWazza wrote:
Anyway, I am fairly certain that Tierce is town, and her case on Airick seems fairly solid (and Airicks responses aren't the best)


Between this posts we had , What exactly about that post made you completely switch your mind on those two people?
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Post Post #538 (isolation #49) » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:21 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Xalxe wrote:I was thinking about this last night, and about why RedRabbit was killed. There was no reason that I could see for him to be nightkilled, so I figured that it was due to his reads. And lookie at this post:

RedRabbit wrote:Ok, I'm buying it. I still have a scum read on ovyo/Mr.JamesWatson/Leonshade, (stronger than before), but I'll join your wagon in order to get the lynch today.


UNVOTE: ovyo
VOTE: DeltaBacon.

Note: DeltaBacon is now L-1.


Leonshade and Tierce were his scumreads. I'm thinking that this coupled with the lovely wine makes for an interesting case. And by that I mean VOTE: Leonshade


How did this post by redrabbit make Tierce his scumreads?
The last mention of Tierce I found in Redrabbit's ISO was a town read.

Also are you going to give your reasons for why you would have tried to lynch Tierce today?
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Post Post #540 (isolation #50) » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:52 pm

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No I hadn't reread the entire post since I was looking through your ISO and you had only quoted part of it. I had read it when it was posted, but I already had Tierce as a townread before that. (with paranoia trying to get me to think differently)
I was just seeing if you had any specifics which made you change your mind.

Reading the post again I did just discover this juicy bit of information, which would probably be why RedRabbit was killed night 1.
Tierce wrote:On RedRabbit: Why did a newbie die? Was there some kind of power role hint? I don't think so. He was not clearly Town. He went after , and has Post 272 where he shows suspicion of Airick.


Though Tierce was also someone they went after in that post, if it is bulder/xalxe, then 2 having both scums listed as plausible early should be setting of alarm bells. Though both of them were dropped (and buldermar even became a strong townread).

I'm scared of risking the hammer and will wait to see if Xalxe as an answer to the question I just asked him in my previous post.
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Post Post #542 (isolation #51) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 3:33 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

Xalxe wrote:Also, I would've started by voting for Tierce because 1) how is she not dead and 2) mostly gut. I'm not saying I would've been gung-ho EVERYBODY KILL THE FUCK OUT OF TIERCE, but I probably would've opened with a vote on her.

Which then would have caused a everyone gung-ho (well the two scum anyway) to join in killing the fuck out of tierce.

Instead you had to go with "nobody vote we're in LYLO" spill and then say you would have opened with a vote had Tierce not died?

I am also having trouble seeing town actually announce they were going to attack the person that died during the night, especially in LYLO, I can see town thinking it, but not actually saying it.
and that post you've now said also has nothing to do with Tierce being a redrabbit suspicion. (there was some suspicion cast (in the same post where he attacked vendatta and buldermar) and a few later posts, but it was long gone when redrabbit was sheeping Tierce's option of deltabacon. Town don't sheep their most suspected's cases.

and now I'm going to stop pussy putting around with paranoia of Jason and risk the game with a hammer.

UNVOTE: buldermar
VOTE: Xalxe
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Post Post #545 (isolation #52) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 4:35 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

The evidence I was finding pointed that way, dammit :(

I should not trust evidence.
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Post Post #547 (isolation #53) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 4:45 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

I thought he was trying too hard though.

and honesty I think I would have swayed voting Xalxe's way even if we had lynched buldermar today, which is pretty much why I did it.

and some evidence such as finding out that you were in fact not obvtown because of your predecessor's no lynch vote is what I should have followed. It's just the differentiation from the other no lynches that I thought this one was actually honest.

Should have gone my other testing option of voting Jason to see what would happen.
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Post Post #553 (isolation #54) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 11:47 pm

Post by Cheery Dog »

I didn't really have any good reason for buldermar being scum, just somewhere (and reading 1298) made me suspect him.

This game probably would have ended sooner had buldermar not taken the first lylo vote, I was going to vote xalxe after I had slept. (i was waiting until then because I figured since if probably be on if a quick hammer seemed to be happening im ay have been able to unvote.)

and the actual research into the no lynch I was doing should really have tipped me into believing what I wrote.
I'm not sure why o didn't go anything more with out after buldermar commented on it and I later confirmed him scum.

I had to go drink the wine of the first option I posted about housemate probable thought process., but my gut was telling me the xalxe buldermar team after reading that post of red rabbits.
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Post Post #567 (isolation #55) » Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:04 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

It was only a bread crumbed clear (though it was pretty obvious that I picked up on the second one during the game day) though it was also my fault it came out.

I was paranoid myself that xalxe was taking my clear with using the same breadcrumb.
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Post Post #569 (isolation #56) » Mon Nov 19, 2012 12:33 am

Post by Cheery Dog »

That was just a side thought. I don't think you actually did that much to convince me (As I was already suspecting that team), as I said it was looking at that past day and I don't know what.
I think I grew impatient and something made me decide you were town.
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Post Post #572 (isolation #57) » Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:07 am

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buldermar wrote:The only possible teams were Jason/me and Xalxe/me once Jason neglected hammering me. Therefore, I was a confirmed scum. As such, not lynching me today was a fundamental mistake. That's the only definite mistake I can find.

also xalxe/me. Well not to me, but would have been to Leon
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Post Post #576 (isolation #58) » Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:11 am

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I did deduce that as possible, just with Leon as the scum instead of you. (which I then rejected when Tierce crumbed the inno).
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Post Post #579 (isolation #59) » Mon Nov 19, 2012 9:27 am

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Your slot confirmed him scum and then Decided to lose the game by changing my vote ;/

Not all scum players actually realise they can chat during pregame.
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