Newbie 1289 - Game Over!

[RedRabbit]

Checking in. Man it's been a long wait for this. RR will do btw if you're referencing me.

You can change your vote anytime you want PS. Just unvote [Players name] and then vote [Players name]. In bold of course. Like this:

unvote PaperSpirit

vote Airick 10.

'Cause even if Airick 10 has the right idea, he didn't vote.

[RedRabbit]

Sorry for my low levels of participation up until now, but as luck would have it as soon as the game started my free time dried up. I have been reading but unable to post due to the fact I was mostly at work. Anyway, I'm a lot freer now and will start to make up for it. To start of let me

unvote Airick10

My scumdar is leaning towards a few players. They would be, in no particular order of scumminess, Tierce, Vendetta21 and Buldemar.

Tierce:

Thinks that PaperSpirit is obvtown based on four posts. The only thing that is revealed in these posts, besides that PaperSpirit is obv

new

, is that PaperSpirit thinks that a no lynch is preferable to town on D1, something that Tierce herself doesn't agree with. Bases her vote on Sylvant/Ovyo because of his vote for this "obvtown" while conviently ignoring Vendetta21's vote. The more obvious target on this basis should have been Vendetta21 afaics. Refusal/reluctance to remove the vote after Sylvant had been replaced is suspect as Ovyo can't know why Sylvant placed the vote. The only reason I can think of that this would be reasonable is because

if

Sylvant was scum, he gave it away by voting second on a newbie and tried to pass it off as random. That's a loose read imo. Unless she knows he was scum!

Vendetta21:

It's already been mentioned, but the the unvote on PaperSpirit was suspect given the addition of the "for now"(#25). In a further explanation he admits that it's very likely that PaperSpirit is a newbie but is suspect that he is acting in a way that does not convince him that PaperSpirit is confirmed town. Hardly surprising since he's 1. A newbie, and 2. Not posted since. Weak scum feeling.

Buldemar:

Took the thread off on a tangent re game theory by 'correcting' Tierce that lynching a confirmed town is not preferable to town on D1. Tierce, as far as I can tell, never made this claim. He seems to operate, both here and in his previous game , on a 'logic trumps all' platform, but this 'error' seems deliberate. I feel he is pushing a lynch based on unsound reasoning. One to watch for me.

In reference to that tangent, I also think Buldemar is wrong. A lynch is

always

preferable on day 1 even if the hammer vote comes from a confirmed town (i.e. self-voting).

My towndar is leaning towards Airick10, PaperSpirit and BT. The rest are in the nullzone.

[RedRabbit]

I haven't voted deliberately. I'll wait for further responses.

[RedRabbit]

Tierce:

Thinks that PaperSpirit is obvtown based on four posts.

Is this something you find odd? I don't think it's difficult to see how she got to that conclusion.

I don't find it excessively odd, no. I can see how she might have come to that conclusion. That he's

obvious

town is a bit of a stretch I feel, but what perplexes me more is that she voted Sylvant and not Vendetta based on her assesment of PaperSpirit's townieness. I would think that Vendettas scumminess was more revealing based on some of his subsequent posts, the fact he voted second and that Sylvant's seemed random/jokey when Vendetta's was not at all random. Why not vote for Vendetta if the reason for voting Sylvant was because he voted PaperSpirit who is 'obviously town'? Is what I'm getting at here.

Buldemar:

Took the thread off on a tangent re game theory by 'correcting' Tierce that lynching a confirmed town is not preferable to town on D1. Tierce, as far as I can tell, never made this claim. He seems to operate, both here and in his previous game , on a 'logic trumps all' platform, but this 'error' seems deliberate. I feel he is pushing a lynch based on unsound reasoning. One to watch for me.

In reference to that tangent, I also think Buldemar is wrong. A lynch is

always

preferable on day 1 even if the hammer vote comes from a confirmed town (i.e. self-voting).

My towndar is leaning towards Airick10, PaperSpirit and BT. The rest are in the nullzone.

Lynching a townie on D1 is better for the town than no lynching, because if nothing else, it already reduces the pool of scum suspects by one and we have better odds tomorrow. Make sense?

Could you elaborate on your "logic trumps all" interpretation and what this entails?

That you prefer using reason and logic above 'gut feeling'. Logically.

This is just the way I'm reading you as a player.

The quotes above show that Tierce never mentioned lynching a confirmed townie would benefit town, but that is what you later accused her of.

This is where your discussion starts:

This is incorrect. Lynching a person at random on D1 is better for the town than no lynching, but lynching a

confirmed

town is worse than no lynching. If this was correct, there would also be a time for self-voting - namely a scenario where you're on L1 with limited time left of the day.

She made no reference to this, but you pulled her on it anyway.

Then you said this:

I am talking about the case you used as an example (that a confirmed town lynch is superior to no lynch).

It was never quite obvious for me why you would make such (in my opinion outrageous) claim, which is part of the reason I corrected it. You were talking about the misconception that lynching a confirmed town is superior to lynching no town, and insofar you define this as a corner case you were by definition talking about such.

Could you quote me where she says this before you pulled her on it, because I can't find it? She clarified her position in post #40 but you still thought it was worth voting for her after that.

I've read your last game, and from what I'm reading in this one, you do seem to like taking a logical and deliberate approach to playing the game. The best way I can put it is that, to me, you seem to have a very methodical outlook. That you missed where she didn't use the word "confirmed" when saying it's better to lynch D1 is a little off on my initial reading of you.

[RedRabbit]

<snipped>
Lynching a townie relies on the premise that someone is confirmed townie, else you'd be lynching a player whose alignment is unknown, which is a entirely different matter. Furthermore, if this

is

a misunderstanding on my behalf, I'm left wondering why she never simply pointed this out.

If anything she confirms it in post 40, claiming that self-hammering minutes before deadline may be acceptable.

I'm voting her for different reasons that I have already pointed out.

Well that's the way I read it. That a

confirmed

townie can only exist when that townie flips town. Trying to lynch day one is preferable to hit scum, but if you hit town that is also preferable to not lynching at all. The difference between a townie and a confirmed townie can't exist before the lynch, in my view, except if it is yourself that is self-lynching and even that is preferable to a no lynch. My read on you would have lead me to believe you'd spot that. That you didn't seem to have as much to do with my read of you as it has to do with your actions.

As I've pointed out earlier and as Deltabacon has, sort of, alluded to in the post above this, I'd like a bit more info re the Sylvant vote by Tierce. So to add pressure:

vote Tierce.

[RedRabbit]

No one is going to hammer.

I can only imagine how you could possibly make such conclusion.

Maybe he thinks that no town would hammer so early in the day because that would make them look really scummy and get themselves top of the lynch list tomorrow or/and he thinks that the 2 scum are already on the wagon so they can't.

[RedRabbit]

No one is going to hammer.

I can only imagine how you could possibly make such conclusion.

Maybe he thinks that no town would hammer so early in the day because that would make them look really scummy and get themselves top of the lynch list tomorrow or/and he thinks that the 2 scum are already on the wagon so they can't.

I'm going with option C.

I thought you might be.

I have to say I don't see it. I know this possibly nudges me in his direction for you but I doubt scum would make such an *obvious* mistake.

[RedRabbit]

A few IC notes that I'd like to make at this point:

So to add pressure:

vote Tierce.

Pressure votes rarely work, and moreso when you deliberately call them pressure.

I beg to differ:

vendetta at least seemed to want to pressure PaperSpirit. A second vote on a townread doesn't mean that the player is scum, and I think Sylvant's seemingly random vote was worse because he ignored PaperSpirit's opinion on no-lynching and yet voted him anyway. In addition, your view on removing a vote because a slot has been replaced makes little sense. Your slot does not change alignment if you replace out, and while ovyo cannot explain Sylvant's actions, what makes me suspicious of ovyo continues being valid.

I got what I wanted.

UNVOTE: Tierce

[RedRabbit]

I'm off for five days. Yay!

I'll post tonight but I have to re-read the thread to get myself back in the game.

[RedRabbit]

Ok. Well it looks like I didn't miss as much as I thought.

@ Buldemar: Is your vote now on vendetta purely because he challenged you re theory and the tone he used? That's what I'm getting from it. I don't see why you shifted your vote from Tierce. If I challenge you should I expect a vote for my troubles?

I'm also not seeing the Deltabacon votes. Tierce seems to be voting because he posted, in isolation, that people needed to step up their participation. Being one of the worst offenders (the worst?) I agree with him. And Fish is basing his(?) on the very first post of the day.

I'm going to go ovyo. Re-reading the thread has given me a clearer view of her voting patterns early on and the post where she votes for BT #42 and immediately follows it with the thought that two others seem more off to her is about the scummiest read I get in the game so far. So for now:

VOTE: Oyvo.

[RedRabbit]

It's spelled " ovyo" btw.
But I've been getting my doubts about ovyo...
I looked more into ovyo's posts, it seems to me like ovyo really had no clue what was going on.
ovyo jumped in a game that happened to have Tierce and buldermar in it. Both very fierce players, lots of text, lots of BOOM BAM BAM!
Honestly, I think that's why we don't see ovyo in this game anymore.

My bad. I'll ammend the name.

Quite a lot of us hadn't a clue what was going on but two questions to Tierce about why she was voting for her slot, when it was plainly obvious that ovyo had nothing to do with the vote, made me think that she wasn't just in awe of Tierce or intimidated by Buldemar's vocabulary, it made me think she was nervous and couldn't see a way of getting people to unvote her, well, because she is scum.



@Buldemar: I won't quote it all again as I might upset N_R , but thanks for the quote. I still feel it's a bit of a petty vote but I can see how you came to go with it. It looks like a lot of effort just to get there. He called you on your style and voted, you continued to use that style, he called you on it again, you ignored the question and voted him. Amirite?

Anyway,
UNVOTE: unvote
VOTE: Ovyo

[RedRabbit]

I think I'm actually starting to see how Tierce came up with the "obvtown" on Paper/Fish.

The way I'm seeing it is: If Paper was newb and town and didn't really know how to play the game then it is more likely than not that he would have voted no lynch/waited to vote. It's a rookie mistake when playing this format.
If Paper was newb and scum and didn't really know how to play the game he would have voted randomly just to try and get a lynch of a townie or would have been instructed by his scum buddy to do so (i.e. not vote no lynch).

That he wasn't informed by someone else leads me to think that he was on his own, therefore town. Tierce could be scum and the informed minority, but there is another option. Her case for not telling what her read was specifically had little to do with what the read was or how she got it and more to do with the fact that she would not be bullied into giving somebody what they want just because they asked for it imo. I think this is the right move and goes some way to me trusting Tierce. It's actually why I called her on the exact same thing earlier. To see if she'd cave.

[RedRabbit]

You're all not going to get it without voting her or Fish:

I'd rather let scum wonder what is going on without any real certainty.

[RedRabbit]

Ok, I'm buying it. I still have a scum read on ovyo/Mr.JamesWatson/Leonshade, (stronger than before), but I'll join your wagon in order to get the lynch today.


UNVOTE: ovyo
VOTE: DeltaBacon.

Note: DeltaBacon is now L-1.

[RedRabbit]

I'm sorry, are you saying that you made yourself look scummy so that you could evaluate who would jump on your wagon (town) and who would stay clear (scum)?

You do realise that if we follow your premise, then the best policy of seeing if that is true is to lynch you, don't you?

[RedRabbit]

That was a very risky ploy Delta. And I have to say I think it's going to backfire.

I actually

had

a stronger read on Leonshade than I did you, as I mentioned earlier, but this looks like scum trying to weasel their way out of a lynch. As you must have realised would happen when you came up with the ploy.

If you were trying to act so scummy in order to see if scum wouldn't jump on your wagon so that they could keep you around as a diversion, then you forgot to take into account that scum only make up 2 of 9 players. The other 7 are going to want to lynch you for being scummy and scum will realise that in order to look non-scummy they should jump in too.

Even if you flip town now, I'm not sure it makes those on Buldemar's lynch look as scummy as you seem to think.

Sorry, but my vote stays. I had my doubts but not anymore.

Someone hammer please.

[RedRabbit]

You're right Airick. That does look like a scummy move.

Delta just said he tried to play it scummy. He admitted this. So it comes down to two things: 1. He's lying and actually is scum, or, 2. he's town and has tried to play a very strange fake.

I can't see how you think it's 2 and if it is 2 then he should be lynched for even trying something so audacious.

[RedRabbit]

But jumping off Deltabacon's wagon and trying to push buldermar's wagon makes perfect sense if one is paired with Deltabacon and

the player did not want to bus on D1

.

Noob question Tierce; What does the bolded bit mean?

[RedRabbit]

But jumping off Deltabacon's wagon and trying to push buldermar's wagon makes perfect sense if one is paired with Deltabacon and

the player did not want to bus on D1

.

Noob question Tierce; What does the bolded bit mean?

"Bussing" or "to bus" is how we mangle the concept "throwing under the bus", which in this case refers to participating actively in the lynch of your own scumbuddy to give you a measure of town points. Scum know that if they defend each other throughout the game they will attract too much attention and, should one be lynched, the other is a visible culprit; that's why they will distance (express scumreads about the other one) and bus. Bussing is the extreme version of distancing, in which you actually get your partner(s) lynched to make it look like you are town.

Sometimes it work, sometimes it doesn't. It's a kind of interaction to watch for, though nowadays people are aware that scum can and will bus, so it is always a bit of a wildcard to see how the interactions make sense.

Oh right. Thanks for that.

Those sneaky Hobbitsessss.

[RedRabbit]

Let's say he is town. Since it takes 5 to lynch, the numbers say at least one of those five will be scum. It is reasonable to expect the town to look at those five who voted him as possible scum.

I think this bit is where we're going to disagree.

I agree that if he flips town, then under normal circumstances town would have to look at his wagon for scum, but in this circumstance he has admitted that he is playing scummy deliberately in order to push scum on to another wagon, which means that if his plan has worked none of the players on his wagon are scum. What confuses the issue is that scum would realise this too, (he's told them as much), and would jump on to look town. The problem though is that no one has done that since he revealed his ploy. Buldemar in fact unvoted so that no one could hammer, giving me a strong town read tbh. You had a chance to move but were reluctant because you don't get a scum read from him, (this after he admits trying to give off a scum read, which people have picked up on and mentioned and you say that you seen those scummy signs). That's what looks scummy to me. I don't think you're being naive, I think you're being clever.

If he's town then we can say that his ploy failed in one respect (he died) but might be true in others (that scum didn't jump on his lynch in order not to look scummy). That could be good info for town.

The only way we are going to know for sure is to lynch him.

[RedRabbit]

I'm really confused Delta.

Isn't Leon offering to hammer proof that your ploy has worked? You

announced

that the probable scum are not on your wagon, so what did you expect them to do? They couldn't stay there because according to you that would have pointed the FoS on them tomorrow, them jumping over now seems like a good move to validate your play and get town to trust them. In the end I don't think it's helped town all that much, because after announcing it at least one scum and probably

only one scum

, (if you are town), will gladly jump over to split any alignment reads/scum reads we could have gained from it tomorrow. IF you flip scum on the other hand, well then, that

might

give us something. Which is what I'm betting.

And announcing to self-hammer so that we can get "closer" to a lynch on D2 doesn't make much sense because, as Buldemar pointed out, that's only "closer" IRL, which makes no difference. The fastest way of doing it, which is what you seem to be advocating, would have been just to hammer. Am I getting that wrong? I think you did it in order that people might unvote and give you some breathing room.

I'm ready and don't have much more to offer.

[RedRabbit]

Fair enough. It worked.

At the risk of repeating myself we can only evaluate it when you flip.

Self-hammering shouldn't have come up though if you're town, you should let the scum do it. IF you are town and we need to evaluate wagons tomorrow then having you as one of the 5 doesn't help.

[RedRabbit]

Well played scum.

Now could you please tell me why you'd kill a newbie in their first game on the first night? That was just downright cruel.