Open 459: There is a New Scum in Town. Game Over Town Wins!

[buldermar]

Hello everyone, will be catching up later.

[buldermar]

Hi pm, you seem to be in all my games =)

[buldermar]

A game within a game within a game...

[buldermar]

VOTE: NS

[buldermar]

I dislike the jump from Fe to Nacho, then back to Fe, and I didn't find an explanation in your ISO, NS.

[buldermar]

Also not convinced with NS. If he was trying to defend his buddy, I really don't think he'd try to lynch me, of all people. No one (except for bork, but bork is crazy) was talking about the scumread on me, so it wasn't exactly opportunistic. And he didn't vote Fizz, which would have been a hell of a lot more telling to me. So yeah, calling him town.

I guess that makes sense.
UNVOTE:

Also, did Majiffy receive a warning from the mod yet or can I expect to be constantly insulted in this game as well?

[buldermar]

@ buldemar - rachemarie has given a general warning to all of the players to try to keep it friendly but majiffy is majiffy can we plz get not into that.

I too hope that we wont have to.

[buldermar]

VOTE: Nachomamma8

[buldermar]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: kmd

[buldermar]

UNVOTE:
Voting is a silly way to prod dodge anyway.

[buldermar]

VOTE: kmd

[buldermar]

UNVOTE:
Voting is a silly way to prod dodge anyway.

I have a few numbers to VA hospitals who have excellent therapists on hand. Just saying.

The nature of my study suggests that I will be okay.

[buldermar]

Thanks though...

[buldermar]

KMD being on L-1 and you're voting him. Then you write this:

KMD why are you vehemently defending me? Explain your town read on me thoroughly, please.

Perfectly fine...

And then you just vote Maenara instead?

VOTE: Maenara

Pourquoi???

[buldermar]

Just because I'm voting someone else doesn't mean I don't want an answer. I don't see what dots you're failing to connect here.

You were voting one person, then asking that person for an answer to a question, then voting a different person, in consecutive posts. Je ne comprends pas.

[buldermar]

Maenara, from your perspective, for what reasons are you being voted and which of these are lies?

[buldermar]

I'm still happy with where my vote is fwiw.

[buldermar]

Buldermar's KMD vote looks suspicious since he never mentioned KMD at all before that vote and he doesn't provide any reasoning for it. He said he's happy with his vote but still doesn't say why. I'll have to read everyone else before I decide if he's scum or not.

I think Majiffy is town - mostly based on day 1. I looked into his vote and reasoning and agreed with most of it, so I'm essentially sheeping his reasons. And I like where my vote is because I do not think anything has changed significantly.

[buldermar]

If it comes down to LS or Majiffy, I will be voting LS.

[buldermar]

Well. Good.

VOTE: Lastsurvivor

Did you have anything specific in mind with your "Well. Good." comment?

[buldermar]

Or is voting your definition of trying harder?

[buldermar]

buldermar do you plan on doing something interesting soon?

Like claiming scum?

In all seriousness, I don't really know what to do with this game. Do you have some specific questions to ask me? Something you would like my opinion of? In other games I've had an easy time replacing in, but I find myself a bit left behind in this one for some reason.

[buldermar]

Nachooooo y u no answer me?

[buldermar]

The latter of the two.

[buldermar]

As the dawn breaks and everyone stumbles into the conference room, they scan around to see who went missing in the night.....


It took quite some time and nose counting to finally realize that no one was missing.


No one died N2

You're welcome, mollie.

[buldermar]

buldey and borky feel like town.

I was wondering if you could elaborate on this, mollie?

[buldermar]

Explain yourself.

At least three people in here gets it.

[buldermar]

And they'll either laugh or hate me.

[buldermar]

NS, you're from the US right? I'm trying to refute my hypothesis.

[buldermar]

hhhhmmm....

shut up buldey

This is one of the 3 people. She's not amused. That means--> hate me for it instead, hence the "shut up". 2 to go.

[buldermar]

mollie, why does your signature not say anything?

[buldermar]

mollie, why does your signature not say anything?

pm it to me

am i allowed to?

Do not PM each other with anything game related. Rach

[buldermar]

mollie, why does your signature not say anything?

pm it to me

am i allowed to?

Do not PM each other with anything game related. Rach

Ok. It's not game related.

[buldermar]

I am in the US. Why? Do you think the lack of kill was due to Christmas, etc?

No, I think it was probably due to a protective role. I was joking about the "you're welcome, mollie" message as if I was a protective role having protected her and taking credit for it.

[buldermar]

in other words he was trying to gauge your SOH.

I am back on my pet theory unless we want lynch maenara. but even then I am waffling.

I see no sig .. I thought we had a little something going on here, sweetheart.

[buldermar]

so what do you think of my pet theory buldey?

I don't think I ever really got it.

[buldermar]

What is going on in this game right now?

buldey is being a dummy.

let's move along ----->

[buldermar]

did you not read my posts

eta: that is to the post prior

I've read every post in this game but not taken my time to understand it all in details. I'll try to if you tell me which post to read more carefully.

[buldermar]

He is acting like a crazy person.

Nah I'm all normal n stuff.

[buldermar]

He barely posted D2 and now on D3 he is acting all crazy. Something has changed.

Yes, my alignment suddently changed over night.

[buldermar]

He barely posted D2 and now on D3 he is acting all crazy. Something has changed.

Yes, my alignment suddently changed over night.

What did it change to?

I'm now a Jester.

[buldermar]

Cool. So who do you think is scum?

Same person as last day.

[buldermar]

so vote him. he fits in with my pet theory.

Why not

VOTE: kmd

[buldermar]

I think there is a scum among the group of people advocating strongly for the one-on-wagon-one-off-wagon-hypothesis.

[buldermar]

-lynch NS today
---if he flips scum, I'll eat rope without a fight
---if he flips town, theory is dead and I don't have to hear about it anymore

Sounds like a priori knowledge to me. I'm happy with where my vote is.

[buldermar]

because kmd is stupidly town and i don't want to lynch him because that would be stupid.

You'll have to show this for me to change my vote.

[buldermar]

That has no bearing here unless she was actively lurking in that game too. More votes on penguin, please.

This makes no sense. It has more bearing here if she was actively lurking there as well and less if she wasn't just because that's what she has been doing here? No, no, no, that's not logical. Either it has bearing or it doesn't,

then

you show what kind of bearing it has, not the other way around.

[buldermar]

did you just use a gambler's fallacy here? LOLOLOLOL

No he didn't, that would be an interpretation. He made no such interpretation, he merely stated stats which, for all we know, could be accurate.

[buldermar]

I most humbly present to y'all the following quote:

Not voting Maenara today. He reminds me of me when I'm town.

...so, I don't remind you of you in this game?

VOTE: UCT

Unless he bases his votes on quotes of people supposedly not voting others that reminds them of themselves when they're town when he's town himself. In that case, you will remind him of himself in this game.

[buldermar]

Can the above be simplified? I need a road map about halfway through the first sentence.

I don't think it can, but I can try to explain it.


uct says: I'm not voting Maenara because she reminds me of myself when I'm town.
Maenara says: This is a stupid reason not to vote me, therefore I'm voting you.
I say: Maenara, voting someone over a stupid reason for not voting someone is in itself a stupid reason. If he does what you are doing right now when he is town (this is where my difficult sentence explains what it is Maenara is doing) then you will still remind him of himself in this game.

[buldermar]

Bork why am I included in your list in #1073?

It's a gut thing mostly based on your brief interaction with me around ~440. Not much has changed about my opinion of you since then. I've been going back and forth on whether or not asking about this is a towntell or not and I think that self aware scum might do it too so I'm calling it null.

Mollie that gambler's fallacy stuff from Nacho is tongue-in-cheek (and is an appropriate response as any to the original silly question from NS anyway). I find it odd you're calling attention to it.

I find it odd that you find it odd.

it should be obvious that I was reading nacho's posts in iso and I cam across it. I conceded the point to buldey that nacho was not using it as an argument however I am not ruling out the implication piece that would certainly go along with it wit the original intent of the post. ----> looking at body of work and still haven't entirely solidified my opinion.

I find it odd that you find it odd that he finds it odd.

I don't think it was obvious at all that you were reading Nacho's posts in ISO. In fact, when I pointed out that he wasn't actively applied the fallacy, I thought it was suspicious that you brought it up because

that

appeared obvious to me.

[buldermar]

Can the above be simplified? I need a road map about halfway through the first sentence.

I actually could follow all of that. in other words projection isn't a scumtell.

This is both a correct and accurate interpretation of what I said. I guess it can be simplified then - thanks!

[buldermar]

Why do you automatically buy into the theory that it's 1 off 1 on a wagon on town?

This. I find that weird because I've seen this premise not hold true several times already within a limited span of games.

[buldermar]

Bulder - Ok. I'm not really sure going down this avenue is helping much though. All I can think when I'm reading this whole exchange is "so what?"

What would be the motive for Maenara deliberately voting uct for not voting her because her play reminds him of himself when he's town given the premise that Maenara did so without finding that scummy? The motive would be scummy. The question that begs to be answered, then, is if Maenara did so without finding it scummy, or actually found it scummy that uct didn't vote her because she reminded him of himself when he's town. I'm considering voting Maenara over this because I really struggle understanding why this would appear scummy to her. On the contrary, I can see how she looked at this and decided that it could be used as a convenient way of jumping on the wagon. But I've had a wrong read on Maenara before so I'm hesitating.

[buldermar]

Also I don't think you understand why Maenara placed his vote.

This is entirely correct - I don't.

[buldermar]

Buldermar.

I remind him of himself when he's town.

I'm not like him in this game.

He's basically claiming scum.

How are you not like him in this game?

[buldermar]

How are you not like him in this game?

That's an ass-backwards question.

How

am

I playing like him?

The whole wording is just completely counter-intuitive for a townplayer.

You're seing something that I don't see. Assuming reasonable play from you, there are two possibilities: 1) you're scum and making it up, 2) you're town and I fail to understand your perspective. Help me rule out the former of the two possibilities, please.

[buldermar]

And we're not lynching KMD, we're lynching Uct. Now hop on the wagon.

I'm lynching kmd.

[buldermar]

in combination with him defending viable counterwagons (Maenara) and pushing counterwagons that really aren't viable (bork)

Which posts do you have in mind?

[buldermar]

VOTE: kmd

Now

that's

a good vote! I knew I could count on you, girl!

[buldermar]

I think the kmd lynch would be a good idea. I think that uct is probably town cos of how petulant he sounded cos kmd is addressing me and ignoring him. I think penguin is town.

majiffy is a hardcore busser. I think he attempted to bus kmd from the get go in order to gain town cred on finding scum amongst a really good player. how do I know this? cos he has said this and he bussed me and got caught out in the recent tr game which only implicated himself. he switched to fe when kmd showed resistance and he is not giving a read on kmd now he is merely wanting to vote him based off of that 1 post. majiffy screams about cases but wants kmd lynched with not remembering why he had him as scum in the first place.

I think a scumkmd will directly point to majiffy.

That game is still ongoing, so you probably should not talk about it. I agree with you, though.

[buldermar]

I think the kmd lynch would be a good idea. I think that uct is probably town cos of how petulant he sounded cos kmd is addressing me and ignoring him. I think penguin is town.

majiffy is a hardcore busser. I think he attempted to bus kmd from the get go in order to gain town cred on finding scum amongst a really good player. how do I know this? cos he has said this and he bussed me and got caught out in the recent tr game which only implicated himself. he switched to fe when kmd showed resistance and he is not giving a read on kmd now he is merely wanting to vote him based off of that 1 post. majiffy screams about cases but wants kmd lynched with not remembering why he had him as scum in the first place.

I think a scumkmd will directly point to majiffy.

That game is still ongoing, so you probably should not talk about it.

I agree with you, though.

no, it had just ended when I posted this. our last scum begged the gm to kill her off. raven has been wanting to catch me out as scum forever and she never could until now. grrrrr......

I apologize. Yeah, raven was a God in that game.

[buldermar]

in combination with him defending viable counterwagons (Maenara) and pushing counterwagons that really aren't viable (bork)

Which posts do you have in mind?

Two of them should be obvious.

Alright. I wasn't trying to be obnoxious, I just don't have much time available and the way you phrased it sounded like you had specific posts in mind.

[buldermar]

2) That's great, you're also wrong a lot.

So are you.

[buldermar]

2) That's great, you're also wrong a lot.

So are you.

Yeah, but when I'm right, I'm

really

right.

You're truely adorable when you're in your obtuse corner.

[buldermar]

Majiffy, why is my alignment related to that of uct?

[buldermar]

I should say

supposedly

related, given the mood you're in.

[buldermar]

Oh now I recall... it's the split-scum hypothesis, right?

[buldermar]

Did you improve on it or is it still completely speculative and does not resemble history what-so-ever?

[buldermar]

buldey what is your read on me

I think you're a girl.

[buldermar]

There was that one thing with Nacho's supposedly use of gamblers fallacy that struct me as odd but other than that I think you've been pretty transparent.

[buldermar]

That's an astute observation you got there, Buldermar.

Thank you. We'll find out for she if she flips!

[buldermar]

Don't let anything steal your attention on your way.

[buldermar]

Will do.

[buldermar]

I wish I could talk about it but I'm afraid of getting modkilled in this game.

[buldermar]

What's that?

[buldermar]

I really wish I was in that game. It looks awesome.

[buldermar]

That's hilarious

[buldermar]

I don't think I'll have much time tomorrow unfortunately, otherwise I would. If it's around this time of the day I might be able to, though.

[buldermar]

Hey boys could we focus in this thread on THIS game? If you wanna talk Marathon games take it to PM thanks. Rach

Alright.

And it's 11:16 AM my time, I'm from Denmark remember?

[buldermar]

Oh shit I feel like I'll be murdered for posting in this thread without a list ready

[buldermar]

So I was re-reading a bit to try and put together the two top 3's. I think I now have a pretty strong scum read on Nacho's slot - I'll try to explain.

Fe
uctriton00
borkjerfkin
Fizz

Why did you confirm out of thread?

I've played with BF before and he was trying to do this kind of active and forced questioning in a different game where he was scum (can provide link if required). I say forced because the question is utterly unrelated to alignment and gives me the impression of someone who is trying to be an active pro-town player.

VOTE: Aether
Still dodging the question. Why are you reading the role PMs in the first place?

This post also seems weird. Lastsurvivor, who we now know to be town, pointed it out:

Breakfast, explain the significance of your questions in #16 and #203.

16 - Was wondering if they were feeling too self-aware of their behavior to confirm publicly - i.e. Will it look suspicious if I confirm too early/too late/immediately before/after my scum buddy

Instead of explaining post 16 with "was trying to trigger a reaction" or something, BF is trying to rationalize how when you're confirming is related to alignment (which I call complete bullshit and I simply do not trust that BF actually believes to be true).

I think this alone is actually enough for me to consider Nacho's slot the most scummiest, but I also read Nacho's ISO and a few things stood out to me.

man these fingers are so impatient
and they appreciate the deadline extension and don't want to waste a good gift, but MY GOD will I hammer you so fast if you ignore me

This post was really weird to me because he had been lurking a lot beforehand. "Hey look at me I'm looking forward to being an active pro-town player".

Lol @ Fe taking me from top of the town list to the bottom of the possibly scum list without a single reason.

Also, hi Nacho. I didn't know you were in this game. You should probably change that.

yeah, my bad, been lurking pretty hard

Fe is town, don't lynch him, the lynch is terrible.
Majiffy is probably town, Fizz is a ? but I will vote him to save Fe
but it shouldn't come to that since we have 5 days
Fe, who should I vote?

Excuses the lurking

and

asks Fe who should be voted in the very same post. We obviously know now that Fe is scum and I see no reason why Nacho wouldn't do this to make Fe "make a case" and kind of force the attention on someone by sheeping him.

I don't think that town-Nacho would make the argument that he's making about Fe being town.

I think this is really spot on. (PS this sentence is unrelated. I want to test who is actually reading all of this so please start the second sentence of your next post with the word "so" or "and" or "then" or "this")

I don't think that town-Nacho would make the argument that he's making about Fe being town.

I no longer view Fe as town.
Hence why I'm promising to vote him when Maenara makes his catchup post.

This is really irrelevant because at this point Fe was one vote short of being lynched and with no obvious candidate.

Don't really like Lastsurvivor right now, and might sheep Majiffy onto kmd. Might.

"Hey I'm going to buss my partner kmd a bit and then later jump on Lastsurvivor if my partner kmd gets close to lynched".

The Majiffy wagon is really, really stupid.

You know, I feel like I say this every time people vote for me. Probably because it's true.

i hate sheeping you

Vote: kmd

argtgjifrgireurgfiuehtgfiug it feels so bad

This is really lazy in a way I don't find characteristic for town-Nacho. He doesn't say "I like x and y and z about your reasoning for voting kmd, so I'll sheep", he just makes a fake emotional response about how bad it feels to be sheeping Majiffy without mentioning the reasoning at all.

The Majiffy wagon is really, really stupid.
Also not convinced with NS. If he was trying to defend his buddy, I really don't think he'd try to lynch me, of all people. No one (except for bork, but bork is crazy) was talking about the scumread on me, so it wasn't exactly opportunistic. And he didn't vote Fizz, which would have been a hell of a lot more telling to me. So yeah, calling him town.

Don't really like Lastsurvivor right now, and might sheep Majiffy onto kmd. Might.

I think this is about the nicest way I've heard someone calling me an idiot. I do appreciate that.

What's wrong with LS?

he pushed fizz for the longest fucking time and then majiffy tells him to put Fe at L-1 and he'll look at Fizz tomorrow, and he's like "ok that sounds like a perfectly reasonable plan" and now he's sheeping votes onto majiffy. it's stupid and scummy and scum.

This is the reason for the suspicion on LS.

Unvote, Vote: Lastsurvivor

I want you to sheep me until you catch up. I want you to catch up before the 15th of December. Can you do that?

This was when kmd hit L-1. Absolute lack of explanation for the sudden jump. Majiffy points this out in the very next post:

Nacho, reason for voting LS?

Nobody votes LS, couple of people votes Maenara, Nacho jumps on the Maenara wagon and doesn't really talk about it for a while. Then people start unvoting and some start voting LS again. Then after a ton of low activity posts, out of nowhere, comes This hugeass wall. It's based exclusively on old posts so there is no reason as to why this case wasn't made when the day first started instead of simply sheeping kmd. It seems like Nacho realized that a little effort might actually get LS lynched this time around so Nacho ISO'ed LS and pointed out some reasons to vote LS. Which, as we now know, worked:

I'm 180ing on Nacho -- I think he's town and the case is good.

VOTE: LS

I'm only interested in Majiffy if LS flips scum, I think.

VOTE: LS

Line 'em up, shoot 'em down. Maenara tomorrow I guess.

My top 3 town reads would be:
buldermar
bork
Majiffy

My top 3 scum reads would be:
Nacho
kmd
dunno last one

Also I'm voting kmd because a Nacho lynch probably isn't going to happen, but if it does you know where my vote will be.

PS it's really odd that so many people have a town read on me. I feel like there is a reasonable chance that scums have decided to pick me as a town read for balance purposes. This is pretty speculative, though.

[buldermar]

you know looking at your breakkie posts made me want to declare my undying love for you

Don't worry hun, your undying love for me is declared in your signature of every single post you make across this forum ♥

[buldermar]

I'll have to think some more about who to put in 3rd slot... but will it really be required?

[buldermar]

Vote Uct, building a case based on associative tells from two unflipped players is retarded.

This is not what I did.

[buldermar]

Also Nacho is likely to tear that case to shreds.

Obviously. He's an experienced player so he's almost never going to give away his alignment in individual posts. That doesn't mean a more holistic approach is pointless, though. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts, ya know.

[buldermar]

Also fuck you too.

[buldermar]

I think this alone is actually enough for me to consider Nacho's slot the most scummiest

No, you're wrong. Majority of my reason for considering Nacho's slot the scummiest is related to Breakfast.

[buldermar]

Right well we saw how well that worked in relation to LS/Aether.

You should all be ashamed of voting him.

[buldermar]

but first...!

Excuses the lurking

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----------------------
SARCASM ALERT
----------------------

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Good one, I'll give you that! I had long forgotten about the infamous sarcasm alert - I shall make sure to once again have it in my repetoir of responses.

[buldermar]

The second part is exactly what I was doing. I buddied up to Fe, and pretty much offered to sheep him because I wanted to see how he would react. He was sort of crumbling under pressure, and I have a tendency to protect the fuck out of weaker players who are under a shit ton of pressure because I don't agree with the cases against them and end up getting townreads on them even if they are obviously scum, and it's an Achilles heel I've been working on.

My point is that you were trying to force the attention on someone other than Fe by having him make a case on someone else, that is, directing attention away from him.

[buldermar]

Oh accidently clicked submit instead of copy so now I'll respond individually.

I replaced in November 29th, 6:30 PM. That post was made November 29th, 7:24 PM. Majiffy also thought that I was lurking beforehand, but no. I just replaced in. The "hey I'm looking forward to being an active pro-town player" bit is also something that's a bit alignment null. It's essentially equivalent to saying "hey, I'm looking forward to being town for once!" or "hey, I'm looking forward to smashing the scum this game!".

Alright, that's a fair point but the post still stands out to me as if you're wanting to give the impression of looking forward to being active without actually looking forward to being active. That is, it didn't seem sincere to me. Maybe I'm just not used to you showing that level of excitement, but to me it seemed forced.

[buldermar]

It's irrelevant, but it doesn't really point to my alignment either way.

I think it does because vote analysis would point to you being on the wagon when you were not in support of his lynch before the very last minut where it become obvious that he was getting lynched.

[buldermar]

The "I hate sheeping Majiffy" was more of a joke than anything else. The vote in and of itself wasn't really lazy, either; kmd was sitting pretty solidly in null where he normally doesn't at all. I wanted to see him do more, and so I voted him. If I liked specific points of the case and considered pushing it myself, then I would have, but I wanted the wagon to grow for reasons other than "kmd is scum, lynch him", and so you didn't get more reasoning from me.

I don't buy this explanation. Obviously I can't prove that it's not true, but hey, this isn't a court and I simply don't buy it.

[buldermar]

Lack of explanation, yes. Lack of reasoning, no. KMD's #713 was honest and wasn't really what I expected at all to see from kmd-scum. I've seen him in shitty places before, but he's not the type to quit because people absolutely have him pegged. Him throwing his arms up and sort of accepting the lynch while giving a realistic answer to my request and not a promise that would buy him potential time which could direct the lynch somewhere else gave me a strong townread. You also note that Majiffy asks me the reason for my sudden jump, but you don't note Majiffy's own sudden jump, which came right before mine. Why?

Prove that this explanation isn't fabricated. That is, show where you've pointed this out before now. Otherwise, I can safely disregard it.

I suppose I didn't note Majiffy's own sudden jump because I was interested in interpreting your posts in the game at the time and so that was where my attention was at.

[buldermar]

...except I wasn't necessarily that sure about the case when the day first started, and it's not really a good idea to start pushing the case before your read is strong. Putting out big cases on people will always help to confirm your bias in 90% of cases, so when you do that, you're essentially saying that you're ready for that player to be lynched. And I wasn't ready to make a call for someone to be lynched just then.

That depends on how you construct your cases. While I do get your point, and although your point may be valid in many circumstances, I do not trust it to be the reason right here. Again: I can't prove that any one post definitively comes from scum, nor can I prove the opposite; you're too experienced for me to do that. What I can do, though, is take a holistic look and estimate how likely you are to take this exact line of posting as town compared to scum. I think you're most likely to take it as scum, which, in turn, skews your alignment towards scum.

[buldermar]

Anyway, our conversation is not leading anywhere because a) there is little you can do now to convince me to interpret the past posts in a different way, b) there is close to no interest in lynching you and, as such, c) I'm not going to vote you when you're not going to get lynched anyway.

[buldermar]

I didn't expect Fe to make an amazing case; I expected him to make a genuine case. If I was trying to direct attention away from him, I think it would be a far better move to do something like writing the case on Fizz myself and adding to the counterwagon instead of putting all the pressure on Fe to direct the lynch away from himself.

I disagree. If you did so you could end up directing attention towards yourself. Note that you were not "putting all the pressure on Fe" as you claim - you were merely hinting to him that now is the time for him to present a case on someone so that you can agree with it and direct attention that way.

[buldermar]

Vote analysis that says someone is town because they were on one scum wagon is terrible vote analysis. Vote analysis that says someone is scum because they are off one scum wagon is terrible vote analysis. I would not be afraid of a vote analysis that bad as scum.

Vote analysis

is

bad. That doesn't mean it doesn't happen, nor does it mean that it is not commonly utilized as town to justify wrongfully voting someone believed to be scum. Hence, the safe thing to do is to be on that final wagon as scum. This is why I think you'll do this more often as scum than as town, but still often as town as well.

[buldermar]

You can't prove it, but you can explain why you think town-Nacho wouldn't follow my explanation while scum-Nacho would be more inclined to follow your explanation.

Scum-Nacho can only resort to fabricating a plausible explanation. I can't falsify the hypothesis that your explanation is fabricated because it's fabricated in a way that doesn't allow me to. Some percentage of the time when you're town, you'll have done something that can show that your explanation holds true. You can never do this as scum because the sole reason for fabricating a plausible explanation is because the alternative explanation is scum-driven. Because you didn't show me something that you previously posted which negates my point, you're effectively a few percent more likely to be scum.

I'll examplify: you did negate my point about you lurking by pointing to the specific post times. As such, I effectively had to retract that point in my evaluation of you. If you instead had said "no I wasn't lurking, we lost electricity for a day" (assuming that you didn't post for an entire day), I'd not be able to falsify my hypothesis that you were lurking and, as such, I'd think that it skews your alignment towards scum even though you could easily be speaking the truth.

[buldermar]

I haven't pointed it out before now. Even if it had, it wouldn't make it proven to be genuine and not a fabrication. The same challenge to this response as the last one.

I'd doesn't prove it to be genuine it just makes it far more likely to be so than fabrication. The same answer to this challenge as the last one.

[buldermar]

Why then do you think that I hesitated in providing my case?

You cannot be said to be hesitating in providing your case, nor can you be said not to be, because you never had a case in the first place. This is my claim and you have an opportunity to disprove it simply by showing indications of you having a case before "The Wall". This is the only way to refute the idea that your claim of having had a case is fabricated.

[buldermar]

Anyway, our conversation is not leading anywhere because a) there is little you can do now to convince me to interpret the past posts in a different way, b) there is close to no interest in lynching you and, as such, c) I'm not going to vote you when you're not going to get lynched anyway.

This doesn't mean the conversation is useless.

I should have specified: it's not leading anywhere with respect to todays lynch and, in effect, is probably counter-productive to towns win condition. I think it would be a better discussion to take when others are actually attentive to what we're saying, but that's obviously an opinion and I'll respect yours as well.

It may be useful in other regards.

[buldermar]

What, LS? Just because he didn't flip mafia doesn't mean he wasn't scum.

Could you elaborate on this?

[buldermar]

What, LS? Just because he didn't flip mafia doesn't mean he wasn't scum.

Could you elaborate on this?

I mean the fucker was scummy as shit.

I didn't notice that.

[buldermar]

Well sorry you're blind.

I didn't see it because it wasn't there. You're delusional and my vision is perfect.

[buldermar]

More people need to vote for kmd.

[buldermar]

FUCK YES SONS OF ANARCHY SEASON 5 JUST FINISHED TORRENTING.

GOODBYE, CRUEL WORLD.

What's that? Does it entail horror, cruelty, death and blood?

[buldermar]

I scored everything such that top priority gets 3 points, second gets 2 and third gets 1. The scores are as following:

Scumscores:

Majiffy 14
Penguin 10
kmd 8
uct 7
ns 5
maenara 5
nacho 4
borky 2
buldy 0
mollie 0
director 0

Town scores:

mollie 8
buldey 7
penguin 6
borky 6
maenara 6
director 5
majiffy 4
kmd 3
nacho 2
ns 0
uct 0

Corrected scores (town scores minus scum scores):

Majiffy: -10
uct: -7
kmd: -5
ns: -5
penguin: -4
nacho: -2
maenara: 1
borky: 4
director: 5
buldey: 7
mollie: 8

Care scores (town scores plus scum scores - calculated to test who people read the most and the least):

Majiffy: 18
penguin: 16
kmd: 11
maenara: 11
mollie: 8
borky: 8
buldey: 7
ut: 7
nacho: 6
ns: 5
director: 5

Conclusion:

We're lynching Majiffy or Penguin if we go by this system.

[buldermar]

Well nobody has scum reads on me, mollie and director, and nobody has townreads on ns and uct.

[buldermar]

Also note that I had a town read on Majiffy, so it's not like I'm tweaking stuff to get my own personal agenda along.

[buldermar]

That's fine. Why is Majiffy town though? I really don't like the way he was pushing for KMD's lynch => saying he'll lynch either KMD or UCT => calling people's votes on KMD bad and that UCT is the only choice.

I've seen him do this as town before. That's not to say it makes him town, but I think it's null. I currently don't recall why I read him as town.

[buldermar]

Buldermar's KMD vote looks suspicious since he never mentioned KMD at all before that vote and he doesn't provide any reasoning for it. He said he's happy with his vote but still doesn't say why. I'll have to read everyone else before I decide if he's scum or not.

I think Majiffy is town - mostly based on day 1. I looked into his vote and reasoning and agreed with most of it, so I'm essentially sheeping his reasons. And I like where my vote is because I do not think anything has changed significantly.

[buldermar]

Probably should find a new system then.

Why do you bother saying stupid irrelevant bullshit like this? It's as if you never get tired of it.

[buldermar]

Because for some reason I can smack bitches in the face with a brick and they're still wondering why their faces hurt. And the only thing I can do is keep smacking away.

What mature analogy.

[buldermar]

You know that, and you're intentionally ignoring it because you enjoy being obtuse and obnoxious too much.

[buldermar]

I'm sure every person in this game is shocked to hear that you oppose a system suggesting that you are todays lynch.

[buldermar]

You know that, and you're intentionally ignoring it because you enjoy being obtuse and obnoxious too much.

I haven't got much of a choice.

Well you could simply not comment on it and do pro-town stuff like what you just did.

[buldermar]

Buldermar there are two things I'm certain are bad ideas going into d2 and both of them are being put on the table as viable options that, for some god-awful reason I can't comprehend, is being considered by a bunch of fucktards that can't read between the lines.

Apologies if I'm getting a little pissed off that the hardest softclaiming I could possibly do is doing fuck all for anyone to pick up on.

I'm the doctor. I was on Penguin last night. There was no kill. I don't have a goddamn reason to think Penguin is town, but he sure as fuck is not today's lynch. And neither am I.

This seems a little premature. Why are you doing this now as opposed to when/if one of you actually is being put on L-1?

[buldermar]

WE HAVE TEN IRL DAYS LEFT. I HAVE BEEN FIGHTING THE PENGUIN LYNCH SINCE DAY START. OBVIOUSLY I HAVE NO OTHER FUCKING OPTIONS.

You could wait it out 'till we are closer to deadline? Maybe someone would have done something that attracted attention and would have allowed you not to out yourself. Bleh, whatever, there is no point in arguing about it now.

[buldermar]

You're taking this rather seriously.

So are you it seems.

[buldermar]

I'm sorry that me doing those vote counts led to this, I still think it's the correct and optimal thing to do, though, it just happened not to work out this time.

[buldermar]

I'm being constantly cursed at for no reason by someone I like =\

People get emotionally involved from time to time and some more so than others - if you think logically about it you may be able to reach the conclusion that he's probably frustrated about this game and you just so happen to fall victim to that frustration. I could be wrong, but I really don't think it is related to an opinion about your persona.

[buldermar]

WE HAVE TEN IRL DAYS LEFT. I HAVE BEEN FIGHTING THE PENGUIN LYNCH SINCE DAY START. OBVIOUSLY I HAVE NO OTHER FUCKING OPTIONS.

You could wait it out 'till we are closer to deadline? Maybe someone would have done something that attracted attention and would have allowed you not to out yourself. Bleh, whatever, there is no point in arguing about it now.

Or the alternative, a wagon building up on one of us until there's no time left to make a rational collective town decision when I out later. I've seen how that story goes, it rarely ends in a scum lynch.

Alright. What do you suggest we do now, then? From my perspective not much has changed because I was already reading you as town and I was already wanting someone else lynched.

[buldermar]

If UCT flips town can we lynch Nacho or kmd next?

[buldermar]

KMD no. I'll look over Nacho if and only if uct flips town. If I'm even alive.

No deal then.

[buldermar]

what I learned from everyone's lists; a little bit. noticed who would not offer one up: majiffy. scum hate lists cos it pins them down and it can leave a trail directly to their teammates. on d3 majiffy should have at least something to offer up, me as town at the very least he can almost always read me but he isn't doing anything he didn't even try. town majiffy would have cooperated just to shut me up, lol. I think that is probably who we need to lynch today.

I'm afraid that you have some reading ahead of you. He's an unchallenged doctor claim, so we're not lynching him.

[buldermar]

So I've read up on this and if uct flips scum, buld is his buddy. I'll explain why after uct's flip.

Assuming your logic is sound, uct will flip town. I suppose that's nice to know since I already have a town read on him.

[buldermar]

NS, I'm going to be a bit blunt here. You're pretty stupid for considering lynching Majiffy in a game where a) he has claimed doctor and b) we know that it is very likely that there is a doctor due to lack of night kill and c) he is unchallenged. If he's scum, the only really logical explanation would be that they decided not to night kill and he just blindly hopes that there isn't a doctor to counter claim, and that's pretty thin and ballsy.

[buldermar]

KMD no. I'll look over Nacho if and only if uct flips town. If I'm even alive.

No deal then.

So your intention was entirely to lynch KMD and you had no interest in Nacho.

I have no interest in your "I'll have a look at Nacho after" bullshit. Either we agree that I help lynching uct and if he flips town you help me lynch one of kmd and Nacho no matter what, or we don't agree.

[buldermar]

and he just blindly hopes that there isn't a doctor to counter claim, and that's pretty thin and ballsy.

That's not ballsy that's just stupid. It's an open setup with a doctor and we haven't had a doctor flip.

p-edit: I'm not lining up lynches, Bulder.

Alright, then I'm not voting one whom I consider town.

[buldermar]

If you list the posts that I need to carefully read I'll do so and try to be really openminded about it now that I know that you're pretty much a confirmed town.

[buldermar]

Alright, I've read all of the linked posts in that post. I feel a bit bad for not reading it more carefully the first time around. I agree with most of it and suppose I can settle for lynching uct. I still think we need to look really carefully at Nacho and kmd if he flips town, though.

VOTE: uct

[buldermar]

You didn't get lynched.

[buldermar]

That, or you were already lynched before mollie unvoted you.

[buldermar]

if buldermar is scum, he's impressed the fuck out of me and i'll write him a poem on how excellently he's playing

Fuck, now I wish I was scum

[buldermar]

Alright intend to hammer so time to claim, NS.

[buldermar]

What the fuck are you guys talking about?

[buldermar]

Waiting on what?

Waiting for your contribution... I know, that's sort of like waiting for Paris Hilton to say something clever.

[buldermar]

I don't actually mean that I just thought it was funny.

[buldermar]

Why, do you think she got clever in the meantime?

[buldermar]

Sure she can...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Picture_book

[buldermar]

I should have hammered when I had the chance

[buldermar]

I guess.

Isn't Uct wagon a bit dated, though?

VOTE: uct

[buldermar]

Do you think his role PM has changed in the meantime?

You never know, he might have picked up a new role by a mod somewhere.

Lol who am I kidding this isn't a bastard game.

[buldermar]

Nacho is posting, so I'm going to assume he is avoiding this thread.

I think this is a pretty retarded assumption.

[buldermar]

UNVOTE:

First one to put ns or uct on L-1 gets a cookie.

[buldermar]

Aaaand he logged out of the site. Super surprising.

Considering the time was 1:47 AM it's hardly surprising that I logged out when I realized nobody was getting hammered.

Also go fuck yourself.

[buldermar]

Rule of thumb - the most town looking person is probably scum. Who is that?

This is the dumbest shit I've read in a long time.

[buldermar]

Wait, I can actually hammer someone?

[buldermar]

Uct is not at L-1, he's at L-2.

[buldermar]

Well better safe than sorry.

VOTE: uct

[buldermar]

UNVOTE:

[buldermar]

If we hit scum today, there is 1 left. If we plan for the JK to target X person if and only if we lynch scum, a kill overnight would subsequently clear that person.

This is a good idea and you're right that we should have done it already.

Who do you suggest that the JK'er targets tonight?

[buldermar]

Also if the JK'er is asked to self-target, he/she should obviously just target someone else and keep the info obtained until a win is guaranteed by claiming and telling who got cleared from the presence of a nightkill.

[buldermar]

If Uct flips town JK should jail me so we go into tomorrow with a conf. town.

If he flips scum then I guess I done dedd.

You're already confirmed. However, are you safe from nightkills if you're jailed? In that case I suggest that we all agree on someone who isn't Majiffy for the JK to jail and the JK then decides between jailing Majiffy and that other person we agreed on. That way scum is taking a 50/50 by targetting Majiffy, compared to 100 if they target neither of Majiffy and the person we agree on, which could keep Majiffy alive.

[buldermar]

I agree with buldermar except for this part, actually, here's what we actually should do:

Agree on a scummy person to jail in the event we lynch scum, if we lynch scum, we jail that person.

If we lynch town:
50% jail Majiffy
50% JK does his or her own thing (instead of doing what buldermar suggested and using an agreed upon person). The reason for this is to give us a non-zero chance of catching scum making a kill. otherwise scum just sends the other guy to make the kill.

Why do you want an agreed upon person as opposed to what you suggest for the town-lynch scenario for the scum-lynch scenario? Otherwise, I think you're right that we should do as you describe to avoid a non-zero chance of catching scum making a kill.

[buldermar]

Oh, if UCT flips town, JK needs to make it slightly higher than a 50% chance they jail Majiffy. like 60/40.

Actually I think the best option is that the JK will

possibly

jail Majiffy, but the exact probability is not revealed, but I'm tired atm so I may change my mind in the morning.

[buldermar]

Oh, if UCT flips town, JK needs to make it slightly higher than a 50% chance they jail Majiffy. like 60/40.

Actually I think the best option is that the JK will

possibly

jail Majiffy, but the exact probability is not revealed, but I'm tired atm so I may change my mind in the morning.

Actually there is an equilibrium that can be calculated, and it's well below 50% because well below 50% still does not make targetting Majiffy versus targetting any one target that has like 10% worthwhile. I'll attempt to calculate exactly what the probability should be tomorrow when I have time and am fresh.

[buldermar]

Agreed upon person in the 1 scum left scenario = either a kill happens and that person gets cleared and it's a scummy person so we take them out of the lynch pool and things are good or no kill happens and things are good (yeah there's WIFOM potential here but scum have to no kill to do it)

The WIFOM potential here is pretty detrimental though: essentially scum can trade a nightkill for a daylynch by merely not nightkilling. I'm pretty sure that we have to have a degree of uncertainty even if there is only one scum left.

[buldermar]

I'm not sure I agree with you but you're thinking on the right lines.

It's somewhat difficult to calculate because it's a recursive function, i.e., the probability of Majiffy succesfully protecting someone later in the game depends on the probability that he gets killed over night. But the point is that it's an equilibrium which means there is an exact optimal distribution of probabilities for possible JK targets.

[buldermar]

That doesn't mean we automatically go and lynch the person that we jailkept -- we need to treat that scenario for the WIFOM potential it has.

But the possibility of clearing Maenara with a nightkill is huge.

I guess what I'm saying is that we essentially get zero information in case that no kill happen because it is a WIFOM scenario. But since no kill means that we can at worst lynch a random person which would eventually lead to our victory because we have confirmed towns, no kill is not an option as long as we don't lynch the jailed person just because no kill happened. In other words, scum is forced to kill even if it clears the jailed person as long as we simply completely disregard no-kill scenarios. Makes sense?

[buldermar]

You really need to take into account the fact that he's confirmed town too.

That's true. A confirmed town is worth 16.67% in 3p LyLo.

Anyway I'm going to sleep, I'm too tired to look into this atm.

[buldermar]

Last night I realized that calculating the ideal probability of protecting Majiffy is simply too much work. It would take taking into account all of the possible future day and night permutations. I think a rough estimate could be 3p LyLo value plus the probability of him succesfully protecting town if he isn't killed plus 1/N where N is the amount of players plus something for his value on possible future days which combined would always be less than 16.67%, so let's say that's 15%... so that would be something like 16.67%+20%+15%=51.67%.

[buldermar]

I don't know if it makes sense at all but intuitively it seems right to me.

[buldermar]

Yeah, I just wanted to make sure that it wasn't entirely wrong but between 50% and 60% seems pretty balanced.

[buldermar]

I'll hammer uct the next time I see him on L-1.

[buldermar]

VOTE: penguin

[buldermar]

Well I'm also cool with sheeping Maenara.

[buldermar]

Right

penguin, who's after you?

[buldermar]

At the risk of encouraging this descent into roulette, one scum left, pirate mollie.

Maenara, by my reckoning I'd count you as the closest thing we have to guaranteed town. That's one. Then there's the idea that uctriton00 was not likely pushing his buddy's lynch as emphatically as he did Nobody Special's, making Nobody Special the next best thing to likely town. After that, I don't think there's anyone who has a good case for being lynchproof. In order for popcorn lynching to be a viable plan for the rest of the game, we need four lynchproof people, one for each remaining night kill and two to form a majority at LyLo. I can't see where you (Maenara) come up with three other people you're willing to bet the game on being town right now. Others might have it easier, as they are at least pretending to work from the self-confirmed town POV, but that still leaves everyone needing one absolutely immutable town read aside from themselves, Maenara, and Nobody Special, and based on Kmd4390's vote, at least one other person doesn't believe that Nobody Special is cleared by uctriton00's flip.

buldermar, since you're apparently in favor of this popcorn lynching plan to string up someone who was under protection on a no-kill night, who are your three other unlynchables besides yourself (yes, this means you can't put yourself down as one of your town reads like you did in replying to pirate mollie's survey) to make this plan work? I'm assuming borkjerfkin's haven't changed from buldermar, Nobody Special, and Maenara, although I don't concur that buldermar getting involved in the JK planning discussion was overly town. Given that I suspect scum had a bead on the director for his pushing me out of nowhere following a no-kill night, the whole thing was probably moot.

Nothing's happened since Day 3 to change my town read on pirate mollie. It seems rather convoluted for borkjerfkin to get the ball rolling on the JK target planning if he was just going to kill the most likely JK directly, moving him down my list. I'm reserving my thoughts on Kmd4390 until I hear why he thinks Nobody Special is scum post-uctriton00 flip. He was initially going to give us a case on buldermar if uctriton00 flipped scum, which happened, so I would like to know why that's changed.

buldermar on the other hand spends a lot of time encouraging the JK target speculation, messes around with the uctriton00 wagon a lot via jumping on and off, to the point of trying to derail it in the same post where he votes for him:

Isn't Uct wagon a bit dated, though?

VOTE: uct

and waltzes in today with the easy UTR vote. He avoids putting forward information where possible, as in his three town/scum reads where he basically lists two for each, and tries to smoke out PRs with things like his posting at the start of Day 3 about implying that he saved pirate mollie, when we know based on flips that such was not the case.

VOTE: Buldermar

I can see from your OMGUS that my vote is well-placed. I'll look into your argument now, I guess.

I'm not in favor of this popcorn lynching plan, it was instigated without my presence and I merely went along with it without any objections. Do you see the difference?

I do not have three other unlynchables besides myself, and the premise that I ought to have three other unlynchables besides myself for the popcorn lynching plan to be efficient is false. To my understanding, the most important advantage from the strategy is the fact that scum cannot manipulate town into certain lynches, and the next lynch will always be dictated by a confirmed town.

There is no plan that guarantees us a win

, so you can't say that because this plan doesn't, it doesn't work. That's just silly and stupid and you should be ashamed.

You claim that I spend a lot of time encouraging the JK target speculation. This is very true, as I sincerely believe that doing so at the time was optimal for town. We needed to figure out what to do, from a global perspective, so that we all could agree that this would without a doubt be the best strategy. And we did.

You also claim that I messed around with the uctriton00 wagon a lot via jumping on and off to the point of trying to derail it in the same post where I voted for him. Let me make some things clear for you:
1) I was very explicit about my intend all of the time, namely that I read Majiffy's case on uct, agreed with it and, as such, wanted uct lynched. I intended to hammer him whenever I would get the chance and made this explicit. I unvoted him in order to get the option of hammering him, which I also made explicit.
2) What you refer to as me trying to "derail it" was sarcasm and a direct reference to something Majiffy said in a prior post:

I guess.

Isn't Paris Hilton a bit dated to be making jokes about, though?

The fact that you could possibly miss this is evidence that you either a) do not pay attention to the game or b) are trying to get me mislynched. Either of these correlates with scum-alignment.

The claim that I avoid putting forward information where possible is outright false. In fact I attempted to be extremely specific and sincere in my reads by not "making up" a 3rd scum read when I only had 2.

The claim that I tried to smoke out PRs with things like my posting at the start of Day 3 implying that I saved private mollie is also false. Multiple people in this game know that this is a reference to a prior game that I played in which I jokingly claimed to have saved someone and wrongfully got lynched for it because several people did not trust that it was sarcasm.


I want to make some

addition points for others to read:

You make several points that could have been made at any point prior to this. That is, this case was "pre-made" and you have just been waiting for an opportunity to post it. If you thought that all of these matters were true, you would have pointed them out already, but you didn't. This is because you're a scum who is now seing a good opportunity to attempt to get me mislynched.

All of the claims that you make are either simply wrong (e.g. the claim of me trying to derail the uct wagon based on my reference to Majiffy's post), or, alternatively, right but not indicative of alignment the way you think they are (e.g. the claim about spending time encouraging JK target speculation).

I want to make it perfectly clear that

I am now voting penguin because I consider penguin scum based on the above analysis.

[buldermar]

I forgot to make one additional point.

As town, you would at very least have posted who you'd want lynched because you may be lynched at any time and may not get a chance to post this at a later time. You never bothered doing so. Why does it not matter to you? Because you're scum. This is further underlined by the fact that as scum, you can only afford to not like this popcorn style.

[buldermar]

Right

penguin, who's after you?

I even specifically asked you. You're scum.

[buldermar]

Oh right. That's a plan that I'm fine with as I'm fairly certain that penguin is scum.

[buldermar]

I'm sure penguin can agree with it too, right? I don't see a town reason not to, so let's go ahead and lynch penguin and lynch me next if penguin flips town. Thanks.

[buldermar]

penguin's not fighting her lynch, she's not fighting the system we're using, she's just making sure her scumreads get lynched next. This doesn't look like last scum mentality.

Wait, what? We must not be reading the same game.

[buldermar]

Just fucking vote penguin and lynch me next if I'm wrong, which I wont be.

[buldermar]

what does that have to do with the current gamestate?

it is a meta thing borky. you best believe that I was paying attention to buldey's scum game (it is completed) and I am having to reevaluate my estimation of him here cos he is really fucking good.

if penguin flips town, buldey tomorrow. if buldey flips scum then look at ns. ns just hammered and has looked super scummy all game.

if buldey flips town after penguin flips town then I dunno. someone who has more experience with the popcorn method will have to work it out. I see what nacho was doing with it though.

eta: xpost with rach marie

okay so ns did not hammer. sheeping kmd

VOTE: buldey

mollie...

Thank you for your kind words! ♥

You're making a mistake here on theoretical grounds alone: If I'm scum, you win the game regardless if we lynch penguin before me. However, if penguin is scum, you may not be alive tomorrow and penguin may get away with this. I want to make this perfectly clear so that you don't have to be afraid of me getting away with something sneaky: if penguin flips town, I'm fine with us lynching me tomorrow and I'll even promise to self-vote. If I do not self-vote myself tomorrow, should penguin flip town, you're free to put whatever you wish in my signature (you know that I don't lose signature bets and this isn't an exception). You're making a mistake because if you lynch me before penguin, there may not be enough people to support a penguin lynch and equally importantly, there may be noone left to look through what penguin is doing.

I really hope you'll put aside your current bias (namely that you think that how you saw me play in that other game makes me more likely to be scum in this), and look at how flawed the logic in penguins case on me is and why this makes him scum, by reading his case and my respond to his case. I do think you're currently allowing yourself to react emotionally instead of rationally, and I know for a fact that you'll be blaming yourself postgame when I flip town and you fail to get penguin lynched the following day due to lack of support.

And a signature bet offer, because I feel really certain in this:

I am willing to bet you that penguin is scum (which we will figure out one way or the other eventually). If penguin is indeed scum, you have to open the next three games we play together with a post of my choice. If penguin is town, you can put whatever you wish in my signature or, alternatively, I will open the next three games we player together with a post of your choice. Dare to make this bet?

[buldermar]

mollie, you changed your signature?

[buldermar]

2) sig bets are against site rules

If anyone in this game has a problem with it I'll certainly respect that.

[buldermar]

More specifically, sig bets used as leverage on a game are against site rules, which is what you are doing.

Could you specify what exactly it is with my proposed signature bet that you find problematic? Then I can avoid doing specifically that again.

[buldermar]

penguin's not fighting her lynch, she's not fighting the system we're using, she's just making sure her scumreads get lynched next. This doesn't look like last scum mentality.

Wait, what? We must not be reading the same game.

Explain

Penguin is fighting exactly the system we're using and attacking the players in support of it.

Penguin is also not making sure her scumreads get lynched next. For instance, when I asked penguing who he/she wanted lynched next, he/she simply ignored my question despite being on L-1.

This look exactly like scum mentality.

You're 0/3.

Also, I can provide evidence for above statements if I have to.

[buldermar]

I have an issue with it -- I have to now gauge

1) your previous willingness to do such a thing.
2) your relationship with Mollie in particular. Mollie making you change your sig has a significantly different connotation than me making you change your sig, for example.
3) how much you value your personal space/integrity/whatever.

I mean the damage has been done -- I now want to lynch you less than I did. Everything you do in game should be with your win condition in mind. This violates that principle.

You have to evaluate everything I do in the game - I don't understand why signature bets speficially is an issue.

For instance, if the bet is a poem that the loser has to write to the winner, you'd have to go over the exact same steps.

It's not even limited to bets. If I merely write a poem to mollie in the middle of this game you'd have to go over the steps you mention.

[buldermar]

Penguin is fighting exactly the system we're using and attacking the players in support of it.

Penguin is also not making sure her scumreads get lynched next. For instance, when I asked penguing who he/she wanted lynched next, he/she simply ignored my question despite being on L-1.

No, she's basically said she's resigned to it as long as you or kmd get lynched next (#1906). KMD in particular is fighting the plan and she's attacking him for it, so what are you talking about.

This was after I explicitly pointed out what she was doing and therefore could easily be in response to me pointing out how she wasn't doing this before.

I'll show you if you promise to read carefully.

[buldermar]

...so three people think Nachomamma8 is scummy enough to vote, and even though he's been saying I'm cleared due to role interactions and should be last on a lynching list, suddenly I'm a scum pick with no reason given. And rather than attempt to put together an argument, he decides to put forward a popcorn lynching idea (which I can only assume Majiffy went with for the laughs) and self-hammer as town before everyone had checked in for the day. And this is the guy whose plan you want to follow. Brilliant. About the only positive I see is that it was put forward by now-confirmed town, so as misguided as it may be, it's not coming from scum. I'd have objected more strenuously last day phase if I'd realized Nachomamma8 had self-hammered, but it would have been all over but the twilight anyways, so here we are.

If y'all are gung-ho on following this asinine plan, fine, but I hope you can get back to actual scum-hunting at some point. Because I've certainly seen my share of games where most of the scum team gets strung up early and the last scum standing weasels his way to a victory because everyone thinks they have plenty of time to lynch haphazardly.

I don't have a lot of faith in my scum detection skills this game, as my two top suspects became obvtown with uctriton00's scum flip and the director's presumed action two nights ago, plus there's at least one person who hasn't posted since uctriton00's flip. Even so, if you really want to go with this, I'd appreciate 24 hours to let me reassess my reads. I'd like to leave the town with some thoughts to move forward with.

= does not like plan + does not mention next lynch.

Right

penguin, who's after you?

=me asking specifically.

At the risk of encouraging this descent into roulette, one scum left, pirate mollie.

Maenara, by my reckoning I'd count you as the closest thing we have to guaranteed town. That's one. Then there's the idea that uctriton00 was not likely pushing his buddy's lynch as emphatically as he did Nobody Special's, making Nobody Special the next best thing to likely town. After that, I don't think there's anyone who has a good case for being lynchproof. In order for popcorn lynching to be a viable plan for the rest of the game, we need four lynchproof people, one for each remaining night kill and two to form a majority at LyLo. I can't see where you (Maenara) come up with three other people you're willing to bet the game on being town right now. Others might have it easier, as they are at least pretending to work from the self-confirmed town POV, but that still leaves everyone needing one absolutely immutable town read aside from themselves, Maenara, and Nobody Special, and based on Kmd4390's vote, at least one other person doesn't believe that Nobody Special is cleared by uctriton00's flip.

buldermar, since you're apparently in favor of this popcorn lynching plan to string up someone who was under protection on a no-kill night, who are your three other unlynchables besides yourself (yes, this means you can't put yourself down as one of your town reads like you did in replying to pirate mollie's survey) to make this plan work? I'm assuming borkjerfkin's haven't changed from buldermar, Nobody Special, and Maenara, although I don't concur that buldermar getting involved in the JK planning discussion was overly town. Given that I suspect scum had a bead on the director for his pushing me out of nowhere following a no-kill night, the whole thing was probably moot.

Nothing's happened since Day 3 to change my town read on pirate mollie. It seems rather convoluted for borkjerfkin to get the ball rolling on the JK target planning if he was just going to kill the most likely JK directly, moving him down my list. I'm reserving my thoughts on Kmd4390 until I hear why he thinks Nobody Special is scum post-uctriton00 flip. He was initially going to give us a case on buldermar if uctriton00 flipped scum, which happened, so I would like to know why that's changed.

buldermar on the other hand spends a lot of time encouraging the JK target speculation, messes around with the uctriton00 wagon a lot via jumping on and off, to the point of trying to derail it in the same post where he votes for him:

Isn't Uct wagon a bit dated, though?

VOTE: uct

and waltzes in today with the easy UTR vote. He avoids putting forward information where possible, as in his three town/scum reads where he basically lists two for each, and tries to smoke out PRs with things like his posting at the start of Day 3 about implying that he saved pirate mollie, when we know based on flips that such was not the case.

VOTE: Buldermar

=ignoring me asking specifically + making up reasons to vote me instead of following the plan

At the risk of encouraging this descent into roulette, one scum left, pirate mollie.

Maenara, by my reckoning I'd count you as the closest thing we have to guaranteed town. That's one. Then there's the idea that uctriton00 was not likely pushing his buddy's lynch as emphatically as he did Nobody Special's, making Nobody Special the next best thing to likely town. After that, I don't think there's anyone who has a good case for being lynchproof. In order for popcorn lynching to be a viable plan for the rest of the game, we need four lynchproof people, one for each remaining night kill and two to form a majority at LyLo. I can't see where you (Maenara) come up with three other people you're willing to bet the game on being town right now. Others might have it easier, as they are at least pretending to work from the self-confirmed town POV, but that still leaves everyone needing one absolutely immutable town read aside from themselves, Maenara, and Nobody Special, and based on Kmd4390's vote, at least one other person doesn't believe that Nobody Special is cleared by uctriton00's flip.

buldermar, since you're apparently in favor of this popcorn lynching plan to string up someone who was under protection on a no-kill night, who are your three other unlynchables besides yourself (yes, this means you can't put yourself down as one of your town reads like you did in replying to pirate mollie's survey) to make this plan work? I'm assuming borkjerfkin's haven't changed from buldermar, Nobody Special, and Maenara, although I don't concur that buldermar getting involved in the JK planning discussion was overly town. Given that I suspect scum had a bead on the director for his pushing me out of nowhere following a no-kill night, the whole thing was probably moot.

Nothing's happened since Day 3 to change my town read on pirate mollie. It seems rather convoluted for borkjerfkin to get the ball rolling on the JK target planning if he was just going to kill the most likely JK directly, moving him down my list. I'm reserving my thoughts on Kmd4390 until I hear why he thinks Nobody Special is scum post-uctriton00 flip. He was initially going to give us a case on buldermar if uctriton00 flipped scum, which happened, so I would like to know why that's changed.

buldermar on the other hand spends a lot of time encouraging the JK target speculation, messes around with the uctriton00 wagon a lot via jumping on and off, to the point of trying to derail it in the same post where he votes for him:

Isn't Uct wagon a bit dated, though?

VOTE: uct

and waltzes in today with the easy UTR vote. He avoids putting forward information where possible, as in his three town/scum reads where he basically lists two for each, and tries to smoke out PRs with things like his posting at the start of Day 3 about implying that he saved pirate mollie, when we know based on flips that such was not the case.

VOTE: Buldermar

I can see from your OMGUS that my vote is well-placed. I'll look into your argument now, I guess.

I'm not in favor of this popcorn lynching plan, it was instigated without my presence and I merely went along with it without any objections. Do you see the difference?

I do not have three other unlynchables besides myself, and the premise that I ought to have three other unlynchables besides myself for the popcorn lynching plan to be efficient is false. To my understanding, the most important advantage from the strategy is the fact that scum cannot manipulate town into certain lynches, and the next lynch will always be dictated by a confirmed town.

There is no plan that guarantees us a win

, so you can't say that because this plan doesn't, it doesn't work. That's just silly and stupid and you should be ashamed.

You claim that I spend a lot of time encouraging the JK target speculation. This is very true, as I sincerely believe that doing so at the time was optimal for town. We needed to figure out what to do, from a global perspective, so that we all could agree that this would without a doubt be the best strategy. And we did.

You also claim that I messed around with the uctriton00 wagon a lot via jumping on and off to the point of trying to derail it in the same post where I voted for him. Let me make some things clear for you:
1) I was very explicit about my intend all of the time, namely that I read Majiffy's case on uct, agreed with it and, as such, wanted uct lynched. I intended to hammer him whenever I would get the chance and made this explicit. I unvoted him in order to get the option of hammering him, which I also made explicit.
2) What you refer to as me trying to "derail it" was sarcasm and a direct reference to something Majiffy said in a prior post:

I guess.

Isn't Paris Hilton a bit dated to be making jokes about, though?

The fact that you could possibly miss this is evidence that you either a) do not pay attention to the game or b) are trying to get me mislynched. Either of these correlates with scum-alignment.

The claim that I avoid putting forward information where possible is outright false. In fact I attempted to be extremely specific and sincere in my reads by not "making up" a 3rd scum read when I only had 2.

The claim that I tried to smoke out PRs with things like my posting at the start of Day 3 implying that I saved private mollie is also false. Multiple people in this game know that this is a reference to a prior game that I played in which I jokingly claimed to have saved someone and wrongfully got lynched for it because several people did not trust that it was sarcasm.


I want to make some

addition points for others to read:

You make several points that could have been made at any point prior to this. That is, this case was "pre-made" and you have just been waiting for an opportunity to post it. If you thought that all of these matters were true, you would have pointed them out already, but you didn't. This is because you're a scum who is now seing a good opportunity to attempt to get me mislynched.

All of the claims that you make are either simply wrong (e.g. the claim of me trying to derail the uct wagon based on my reference to Majiffy's post), or, alternatively, right but not indicative of alignment the way you think they are (e.g. the claim about spending time encouraging JK target speculation).

I want to make it perfectly clear that

I am now voting penguin because I consider penguin scum based on the above analysis.

=me pointing this out

Nothing I haven't already voiced. And if you're really going to stick with this plan, then yes, I want buldermar for the next lynch. As was the obvious answer to your question after my post, buldermar. Why would I have fed a game plan I think is ill-advised by only saying what you wanted me to say? And as back-up, in case I'm wrong and scum is someone else who NKs buldermar, I'd put Kmd4390 as my next best scum read for reasons I've discussed in the past.

And Maenara, your idea that us stringing up those people post-flip confirmed townies tell us to isn't so sensible--you yourself are the next best thing to confirmed town, but you said that your reads shouldn't be sheeped. Why are Nachomamma8's any better?

=her adapting to what I pointed out=now willing to follow the plan + mentions who she wants lynched next.


So, she displayed the behavior you consider scummy

before

she displayed the behavior you consider non-scummy. Furthermore, she only displayed the non-scummy behavior

after

I had pointed out how the previously displayed behavior is scummy.

[buldermar]

For instance, if the bet is a poem that the loser has to write to the winner, you'd have to go over the exact same steps.

And I'd be equally as put off by it.

Why are you making me defend my position here? I said I had a problem with it and I said why.

p-edit: by all means.

I'm merely trying to understand. You don't have to defend anything, I just personally dislike the "well it says so in the rules so I don't care what's

actually

right/wrong" mentality that you are displaying by rationalizing that, because you have site rules on your side, I should willingly accept your standpoint. I disagree with it. I'm only going to avoid doing these types of signature bets in the future

because

of the site rules and I certainly reserve my right to disagree with

both

the site rules

and

you.

[buldermar]

I have an issue with it -- I have to now gauge

1) your previous willingness to do such a thing.
2) your relationship with Mollie in particular. Mollie making you change your sig has a significantly different connotation than me making you change your sig, for example.
3) how much you value your personal space/integrity/whatever.

I mean the damage has been done -- I now want to lynch you less than I did. Everything you do in game should be with your win condition in mind. This violates that principle.

wat

this does not even concern you. as a sig bet vet from other sites I can promise you that sig bets are rarely an indication of alignment and are more about just fun. I imagine it has more to do with how mean some people will get with them and there can be ill feelings if the bet is not honoured that carries over to other games is why I think it is probably a site rule on here. but you are right, it is a site rule so okay whatever I just think it is a dumb rule but I am not going to make an issue of it cos I am not on staff here so don't have to deal with the consequences if the rule was removed.

anyways I think you misunderstand the nature of mine and buldey's relationship. I am a spoiled american while he lives in some god forsaken scandinavian country where they don't even have toilets that flush.

Darling, don't let distance become an obstacle in our inspiring relationship!

Only Jerome is a spoiled American and I do not even know of a toilet in my country that doesn't flush! I live in Denmark - we have a sociopolitical system that your president endores, and highly functioning toilets with at least two flush functions: one for pee and one for more than pee.

[buldermar]

let's table this discussion till post game.

Did you read my post 1937?

[buldermar]

penguin are you rescinding your scum read on ns cos of the competing bws form the previous day round and how eager uct was super duper eager to vote him?

borky I made a post asking if there were 2 scum left cos I honestly don't know what ratios are for this site. the site I play on range from 1 scum for every town 1:3 to 1:5 unless there are certain players on the scum team then they will drop a scum player and ammo and make it 1:6.

why is maenara cleared again? her don't sheep me cos my reads have not been very good post seemed genuine but isn't there another reason why she is cleared

Because she was jailed last night in conjunction with a kill happening on that night.

[buldermar]

buldermar before I get into your post does the middle paragraph of 1941 read genuine to you? Her initial thing with there being 2 scum left I initially read as playing dumb. I'm less sure of that now.

In a game I played on a different site, she was the GM. In that game I was scum and made an analysis on how many scums there would usually be in a fair game. My analysis predicts that, given the premise that neither faculty has any power abilities, a fair game would consist of a scum faculty of the size of square root N where N is the total amount of players. We were in a 20 player game, so I predicted 4 to 5 scum players (I could have been biased in my analysis because I was scum and knew the answer, but the fact of the matter is that the math is correct). You also have to take into account abilities, but rarely does GM's give only one faculty strong abilities.

mollie told me in a private message that she thought the ratio would be like 1:3 or 1:4 ish normally (as far as I recall), except if she was scum, then it would be 1:6. I think that's what she is referring to in her post, and I certainly don't think we can rule out the possibility that she considered it a possibility with an additional scum.

[buldermar]

The problem I have with 1906 is that it's just not a very good game plan as scum -- I'd expect scum to continue to fight tooth and nail against this plan because it's the only chance she has. This really looks more like what I think town penguin would do and I can't seem to reconcile that.

You can't hold that a) continuing fighting is the only option she has as scum and b) her not continuing fighting means she's town. That's self-contradictory because then she'd have that option as scum as well. For this reason, I consider it WIFOM and don't think it's indicative of her alignment. However, her previous post that I addressed is in my opinion highly indicative of alignment.

[buldermar]

In a game I played on a different site, she was the GM. In that game I was scum and made an analysis on how many scums there would usually be in a fair game. My analysis predicts that, given the premise that neither faculty has any power abilities, a fair game would consist of a scum faculty of the size of square root N where N is the total amount of players. We were in a 20 player game, so I predicted 4 to 5 scum players (I could have been biased in my analysis because I was scum and knew the answer, but the fact of the matter is that the math is correct). You also have to take into account abilities, but rarely does GM's give only one faculty strong abilities.

mollie told me in a private message that she thought the ratio would be like 1:3 or 1:4 ish normally (as far as I recall), except if she was scum, then it would be 1:6. I think that's what she is referring to in her post, and I certainly don't think we can rule out the possibility that she considered it a possibility with an additional scum.

This isn't really what I mean. I mean, I know exactly how many scum are in this game. I'm sure you do too. Is it feasible at this point in the game that she really doesn't?

There are two possibilities:
Her being scum, in which case she does know and hence will be pretending not to know.
Her being town, in which case she does not know.

I think both of these are feasible. We had nighttime for 3-4 days, then a day that ended within 24 hours, then nighttime for 3-4 days again. That's a long time to remember what went on in the game, how the setup was and so on - perhaps especially if you're the GM of a different game. This goes for both alignments. I really don't know.

[buldermar]

I am going to lobby the Mod for a Modkill. It's bad enough that he broke a site-wide rule

in the first place

but then he spent forty-some fucking posts

arguing about it.

I don't give two shits who you are or where you come from, when you're told that you've broken a site rule, you don't defend yourself and go on and on and on and on about how it should be allowed for you. You aren't a special fucking snowflake.

There is no need. I'll replace out if need be. I wasn't aware of the site rule on this matter and also said that I'd avoid making sig bets in the future - I didn't do this deliberately to piss off anyone or break any rules, and I thought we already reached consensus that it should be talked about post-game instead.

If you still want to modkill me, I wont be holding it against you.

That being said: if you continue to insult me or lecture me on proper moral and ethics in this manner, I'll begin responding accordingly. Me having accidentally broken a site rule does not entitle you to attack my person, which you did both implicitly and explicitly.

[buldermar]

I am going to unlock the thread now so behave all. This was a really hard decision for me to make.

Rach, I just want to say that I fully understand the decision and really enjoyed this game. I hope you don't regret having me in it. Thanks for modding!

[buldermar]

1) first off bulder I'm sorry, I did not mean for that to happen

It's all good, I know you didn't =)

[buldermar]

WOOHOOOOO TOWN WIN
No thanks to me ofc
Buldermar you're still a winner in my heart

♥ I'm glad that you guys managed to win and that I wasn't wrong about my read on penguin based on the post in which he voted me. I don't usually feel very certain about my scum reads but I'm starting to get a better at it!

[buldermar]

Yay.

Aw Buld you did good, but wish you didn't do the sig bet /:

That makes two of us! ;D

[buldermar]

WOOHOOOOO TOWN WIN
No thanks to me ofc

Buldermar you're still a winner in my heart

was just going to say this!

I LOVE BULDEY!

also maenara I fell in mafia love with you in this game even though we will probably always look squinty-eyed at each other.

I knew we had a little something going on here! ;D you're playing that upcomming game on TR, right?

[buldermar]

Rach, out of curiosity: was I modkilled before or after the game was won?

[buldermar]

Believe me Mollie I was in a tough spot here and I went with what kept the balance in the game and kept town from losing when they had won with the hammer.

Buldermar I still ♥ you.

Pedit oops

hang on will get that

It's all good, I just hope you wont hesitate having me in another of your games because of this.