Open 459: There is a New Scum in Town. Game Over Town Wins!

[penguin_alien]

/confirm

[penguin_alien]

Fizz, why didn't you actually say "no" anywhere in your reply to Nobody Special's question? Instead you questioned the question without answering it.

VOTE: Fizz

[penguin_alien]

I'm reluctant to move my vote off Fizz when he still hasn't actually answered the question of whether he's scum. Although it seems more like he's ignoring the question altogether after giving an unsatisfactory response the first time. Scum afraid to draw attention back to it, or town uncertain about how to dig out?

Nobody Special, what was the interesting thing you did that you think didn't impress anyone? Reaction test on Fizz? Or fake day-vig?

[penguin_alien]

Last survivor, upon rereading Fizz's iso, not only is he not actually answering the initial 'are you scum?' question, but he also isn't both scum hunting and defending himself. His posts are all concerned with replying to the accusations from others, to the point where he has yet to place a vote of any kind. I find that anti-town enough to be good with my vote where it is for now.

My read on the Majiffy-Aether situation would be that it wasn't a policy lynch situation until Aether's site record came fully to light. If Majiffy were scum trying to get Aether taken down as an easy target either for his bizarre actions or his track record, his recusing himself from the situation doesn't follow. I read Majiffy as leaning town based on that.

[penguin_alien]

I don't buy uctriton00's idea that lynching Kmd4390 is some great path to getting information about Majiffy and Fizz. Majiffy engaging Kmd4390 about the latter's top scumread isn't exactly an overwhelming defense, which makes calling his alignment off a Kmd4390 flip rather dicey, and while if Kmd4390 were to flip scum it would be unlikely that Fizz was a buddy, if Kmd4390 were to flip town I don't think that it would give us much additional information on Fizz aside from the idea that Kmd4390's case would have been sincere. Which leaves voting for Kmd4390 due to thinking he's scum, except his arguments in #246, 255, 256, and 259 all boil down to uctriton00 having a town read on Fizz.

Elsewhere I'll buy that Fizz's last couple of posts are moving toward scum hunting despite the prevalence of not knowing what to think about people in his conclusions. Since that is more relevant to me than him answering the (presumably) reaction-test question of whether he's scum, I'll UNVOTE: Fizz for now.

Nobody Special, I don't understand why would pretending to be a dayvig gets you information. Yes, pirate mollie flipped out for a couple posts there, but such a reaction would surely be the exception rather than the rule, as the whole point of open games to my understanding is that one knows the set-up in advance. And if you're convinced Fizz is scum as of #220, why are you looking to see where the Kmd4390 bandwagon goes to the extent that you're supporting it? That feels rather opportunistic to me and even more poorly justified than uctriton00's voting Kmd4390.

VOTE: Nobody Special

[penguin_alien]

Nobody Special, what was the big thing you thought would happen when you jumped your vote from Fizz to Kmd4390? At the time you were convinced Fizz was scum, so unless you thought that Kmd4390 was hard-bussing a partner by pushing for Fizz's lynch, you were purportedly lending support to a vote train that made no sense from your stated perspective. Your explanation is a regurgitation of your initial justification of, 'why not move my vote from a good target to somewhere else to stay with the recent and/or popular train of thought?'

[penguin_alien]

the director, why are you saying (I assume) that Fe's wanting to replace out is scummy, asking others to lynch, but not putting your vote there?

[penguin_alien]

RachMarie, so sorry to hear about your loss.

the director, I apologize--I didn't see your vote and was going off the most recent vote count.

Fe's wall of thoughts does read as mostly IIoA, but the lack of conclusions makes it really hard to read it as valuable. Just about everyone is labeled scum somewhere therein with the exception of Majiffy, who is declared town for pushing Aether and defending Fizz, never mind that Fe finds Fizz scummy right around that time, and Malakittens, who's a pretty safe town read to make, given that no one's read her as anything but town. Oh, and the director is apparently town too, because only townies would dare to be insulting to their cohorts, never mind that said cohorts can lynch them and compromise said townie's win condition.

I'd chalk it up to a raw set of notes being used mostly for scumhunting except that a) nothing's really connected throughout--no posts call back to earlier posts in the notes to build a case, and b) there are some weird non sequiturs therein, such as being glad about not having a fitz and fizz to keep track of and finding Majiffy's lyric quoting relevant (sorry Majiffy, I can only assume that was for your own entertainment) and something that provides a town read on someone else? Plus justifying his own lack of content when talking about borkjerkin's activity--rather pandering to the crowd in that turn of phrase more than making personal notes as he claims.

Plus how is monitoring by e-mail different than any othe kind of monitoring? Nitpicking much?

Bottom line, I can wait for the actual conclusions from Fe, but what's been presented so far is not persuasive in any manner.

And am I reading this correctly in that Fe, you're arguing that you've posted something that should satisfy those who wanted you to post, but what you posted wasn't intended to be helpful to the group at large? So as per #368 we're not allowed to make any judgments based on #361?

[penguin_alien]

Argh, just typed up a post and navigated off the reply page and lost it all. Short version (if anyone wants more specifics on post numbers/gap times I can pull them out again), Fe's in that prioritizing defense over scum hunting mode that is very anti-town. Then in looking at the timeline in his ISO's, around #300 he says he's halfway through reading the thread, but his last post reacting to the content of others was #175, implying that it wasn't a matter of catching up. Then it's the last paragraph of his wall:

Town adjusts themselves and I get suspiouns, I would like to know why of all the lurkers N6 thinks I am scum but other than that bork seams to be sheeping n6. Penguin comes and shows not much really. #236 last survivor shows up and starts actively scum hunting, but then holds out his reads, very weird. Then Majifiy starts quoting lyrics, exciting stuff. Uct / KMD possible early bussing attempt? (#246) N6 gets town points for decoding Majiffies post.

that represents what's happened since his last remotely content-containing post (i.e. one that wasn't an activity dodge). It doesn't track that he took all that time to catch up on so little, reading speed aside. Then spending a bunch of posts since the wall arguing minor points and not addressing the overall concern, namely that he's not drawing conclusions. Or posting thoughts on the rest of the game that he purportedly hasn't read yet. It's not the actions of someone wanting to be a helpful townie.

As such, while I still find Nobody Special's shady vote on Kmd4390 in need of further explanation, I'm good to VOTE: Fe

Side note: Fe, if you think Number Six decoding Majiffy's song thing is a town tell, why haven't you moved your vote off him? Not a point in favor of you putting much stock in your own musings there.

[penguin_alien]

I don't feel inclined to move my vote from Fe yet, as I think he still is giving off way more scum vibes than pro-town signals, but pirate mollie's support of Kmd4390's take on Fizz makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately I don't have time to reread this thread at the moment, but I plan to check tomorrow how many of Fizz's reads, particularly those he was willing to call town, were parroting popular earlier opinions, in particular his town reads on Malakittens and pirate mollie. Since other than them, everyone except Last Survivor came up as scummy or unclear to him. Yes, it is early days, but it's also a question of if he's scum, he's hedging his bets/not leaving much to incriminate him.

Not sure if it's relevant, but Number Six and Breakfast have been MIA for upward of a week. Number Six came in volunteering a couple of reads but has disappeared since people lost interest in voting his slot (formerly Aether's), no V/LA that I can see. Breakfast also seems to have lost interest since everyone's focus moved away from the Aether-spot lynch, i.e. one that while may have had somewhat of a point also had a decent amount of 'lynch the VI.' My initial thoughts on their behavior are kind of mutually exclusive, as it seems like Number Six was mostly posting when it was in his interest to avoid being strung up, and Breakfast was mostly interested in pushing the lynch on the Number Six-Aether slot, with a side order of interest in Nobody Special.

[penguin_alien]

I hate to ask, but could we please get prods on Number Six and Breakfast? It's at the point where I wonder if they remember there's a game going on. And since everyone else aside from Fe and Fizz is voting for Fizz or Fe with four days to go, two inactive spots could be an issue.

[penguin_alien]

Dah dah dah dee dum.

[penguin_alien]

While we're waiting for Fe to finish giving us his reads, I'd like to ask why Fizz has completely disappeared? He said he would be V/LA through Monday at the latest, which is closing in on 72 hours by the most generous standards and time zone assumptions. His last content was #319, in which he said he thought Fe was fishy, yet declined to put down a vote.

His initial willingness to interact with the game seems to have faded, and many of his reads boiled down to, 'not sure what to think.' I still want Fe lynched today, but I get the sense that Fizz threw us a bone of appeasement, and we went haring off after it. Pardon me if I'm breaking some understanding of V/LAs, but given how vague his was, I think it's worth another look.

And I also realize that Nobody Special had a lot on his plate, but I'm still not happy with his explanation of his wagon-hopping in this day phase, namely from Fizz to Kmd4390. Nobody Special, why the vote change from someone you said you thought was scum to their prime accuser with no indication that you agreed with any arguments against Kmd4390? And please give me something more than idle curiosity about the result of doing so.

[penguin_alien]

For what it's worth, I consider the director to be a strong town read. He jumped around with his vote a bit at the start of last day phase, but he was the first to call out Fe and didn't relent anywhere for the rest of the phase. That would be a pretty hard bus to swallow. Which is making me look rather askance at Nobody Special.

His whole Day One attitude of 'let's see what happens' that he still hasn't explained to anywhere near my satisfaction (the whole, 'I think Fizz is scum, but why not vote his main detractor instead?' dealio) was making me leery, but his response to opening events of this phase is even worse. His response for being called on his late move to the Fe lynch is to say:

And you find that scummy?

...which i think is what borkjerfkin just said. He isn't voting you because he thinks the actions he pointed out were pro-town, that's for sure. And then you say:

But I don't generally bus.

which is just a complete non-starter. So you don't generally bus. That doesn't mean you never bus or that, from such a self-aware vantage point, you wouldn't mix up your meta. Overall that constitutes a lousy argument and looks like you're stalling to buy time to shift attention, or come up with reasons, or hope your detractors tie their own nooses.

Speaking of reasons, looking back at the Day One votes Nobody Special placed, they were for (in order) Fizz, Aether, Kmd4390, Fe, Nachomamma8, and Fe. None of these came with a real case. Fizz was a reaction test, Aether was "kill it with fire", Kmd4390 I've covered already, Fe was 'walking too fine a tightrope', Nachomamma8 boiled down to 'why not' and Fe was, 'Okay.' Talk about blending in and not leaving a trail when at all possible.

I'm good with VOTE: Nobody Special given all that.

[penguin_alien]

pirate mollie:

unvote

Vote: Aether

Kill it with fire.

Majiffy said it later in #432 WRT Fe.

[penguin_alien]

I'll grant that Nobody Special flipping to voting Nachomamma8 briefly before going back to Fe isn't the scummiest thing, but his opaque posting just doesn't read like town to me. When he did vote for Nachomamma8, he later explained it by saying he had lots of reasons but most weren't to be made public that phase. It would have been more accurate to say that he wouldn't make any of them public at all. It seems like he keeps doing things to see if he can get anyone to follow along. Maybe it's part of some grand plan that's going to become clear when he starts posting, but right now I don't see where he's being pro-town.

I'm not following the case on Kmd4390. Right now the two main points are the much-discussed read list Fe gave with Kmd4390 being a high 'town' read and (I think?) that Kmd4390 was pushing a lynch on the Fizz-Buldemar slot, which, for the record, hasn't flipped either way (duh, I know) and declined to put down a vote for most of Day One, despite saying that Fe was fishy (#319). buldemar hasn't been crazy-scummy or anything, but he's not doing anything to give me much of a read on him either so far; voting and unvoting Nobody Special over the one particular instance of vote-hopping isn't enough for me to make up my mind.

WRT the Majiffy thing, with all the ridiculous things Fe posted as he dug himself into that hole, I don't really see the absurdness with Majiffy as overly telling. It comes off to me like he figured he couldn't really nail Majiffy with anything and so coudn't decide whether to kiss up to him or use him to invalidate the lynch. So he did both, neither very effectively.

I'm not inclined to move my vote from Nobody Special based on his overall posting, and I want to hear Kmd4390's response to the pressure on him.

[penguin_alien]

And the townish thing to do would be to share those reasons with us.

Oh god I hope I can appear townish.

Vote: the director

That's just stupid.

The reasons in question being why he was voting for borkjerfkin. Or it might have stemmed from the 'not replying to anyone not voting for borkjerfkin' in an earlier post not quoted here; it wasn't clear what Nobody Special thought was stupid to my reading. The whole thing's at the bottom of page 24. It may have actually been the latter, as the director later said:

Bork was on the fence about Fe for most of yesterday, and never ended up on his wagon. I wanted to mess with him for a bit.

so that's been explained, FWIW.

[penguin_alien]

I'll grant that given the time that passed between when Maenara first posted and when the hammer vote was placed last phase, her not being the one to do so is reasonable. I can't imagine that if she'd placed the hammer in any of the posts she made within 45 minutes of starting to post it wouldn't have clouded the issue today, particularly given that she was replacing into a spot that had been either incredibly disruptive or utterly useless the whole phase.

However, given that all we'd seen from the slot was the aforementioned activity, I think some pressure is reasonable. I'd be surprised if anyone's expecting Maenara to explain Aether's postings given how inexplicable he was in all the games cited in the thread before he was force-replaced, but so far what's come out of that spot was Aether-nonsense, Number Six's biggest activity was liking his predecessor's vote on Fizz and thinking Fe's forgetting about town PRs was lazy. It was like everyone was so grateful to have someone not-Aether in the spot that we didn't mind the null activity there.

Maenara isn't doing anything that makes me think 'town' and I particularly don't like this:

By my count, you're at L-1.

A reaction would be nice.

What reaction, exactly? Kmd4390's continued to scumhunt while under pressure and responded to the suspicion on him. More importantly, Maenara's post looks like claim-fishing to me, which makes no sense for someone already on the wagon without any hammer intent declared by my understanding. If Maenara believes Kmd4390 is scum, she should be trying to convince others, not wheedle info out of him.

The more I think about it too, the less I like this whole 'don't want to defend my slot' idea. Yes, replacing into a game is a different situation than playing a spot from the start in my limited experience, but a) you know what you're getting into because your predecessor's posts are right there, and b) I suspect that you have to know that it's not common to be replacing into a super-townie slot, as a lot of replacements come about due to inactivity, which tends to make the slot look scummy. We've had three people in the slot now, and I don't think anyone except for Kmd4390 has called it town recently.

Since Nobody Special isn't going anywhere: VOTE: Maenara

[penguin_alien]

While Kmd4390's posts track on a point-by-point basis, I get the sense there's some confirmation bias going on there. Especially WRT finding things near the end, like pirate mollie's jumping to Fe, that contradict Kmd4390's old reads but are ignored or hand-waved aside.

And someone, uctriton00 I think, talked about ATE going on with Maenara and so we should let her off the hook. I do not see where AtE (this is appeal to emotion, right?) makes someone not scummy. Personally I am not a fan of people disregarding logical facts in this game in favor of relying on emotional appeals, and the last time I ignored this leaning it was to townie-me's peril/endgaming. If Maenara thinks the arguments against her are so weak, point out where the flaws are, or where things aren't supported. And saying she's tired of the whole mess, or whatever she means in #737, when twelve hours prior Kmd4390 was up to L-1, doesn't track; it's not like she'd spent weeks going round on the points.

[penguin_alien]

@Nachomamma8, upon thinking about it, I originally posted just thinking about how Kmd4390's analysis seemed to have confirmation bias in line with his previous posts, which was what reduced its utility to me. In considering it now, if Kmd4390 was scum making these arguments, I'd expect to have fewer targets spit out, given that there are two scum left and he generates four suspects. If he is scum, his leaving pirate mollie as a town read after pointing out why by his own logic she shouldn't be makes me think they could be the rest of the team. I suspect that if Kmd4390 were scum too, he wouldn't go through quite so much PbPA for all of this, preferring more nebulous cases he could back out of or tear down after the fact. So I'm going to have to go with his analysis displaying confirmation bias from a town perspective, and his refusal to backtrack on his read of pirate mollie follows if he's feeling overwhelmed by the number of 'scum targets' he's dug up in those posts and doesn't want to seem uncommitted under pressure. It's also consistent with his pushing his read on Fizz last phase in the face of the Fe wagon, i.e. not inclined to change his mind when he has a read.

Actually upon further reflection, my main problem with his analysis posts would be his take on pirate mollie. There are a lot of scummy ways to interpret that, from buddying to WIFOM if he flips scum to soft-bussing a partner.

[penguin_alien]

Why is pirate mollie town based on Kmd4390's analysis? He points out pirate mollie doing something he's condemned others for but allowed it to pass in that case due to thinking that pirate mollie's other play was good, not in the same vein as the other players in question at all.

[penguin_alien]

Who are you talking about at the end there, WRT not being consistent? The rest makes sense I guess, but I'm not sure why you'd abandon your read on pirate mollie so easily. Maybe it's just me, but I don't really buy this talk that only scum pay attention to the set-up and so town would think there was a dayvig running around more than scum. I'm relatively new here, but I thought the whole point of the Open Games subforum was to play in situations where you know the set-up in advance precisely. And if you think pirate mollie is scum, what are the persuasive arguments made by others that are making you concede your read? Kmd4390's incredibly weak argument at the end of his wall?

[penguin_alien]

It seems like there's something to this case on Lastsurvivor, but I still want to hear more from Maenara before I can be convinced by other's points as to why Maenara isn't scum. What is your basis for disregarding your scum read on pirate mollie, and why are you good with sheeping Kmd4390?

WRT Lastsurvivor, it seems awfully easy for him to claim now that it was only in his postings that he made stronger arguments against Fe, but in his mind Fizz was a better lynch? And even his arguments for having a town read on Fe were really weak, as with saying that Fe supposedly considering replacing out was a strong town tell? That's what I'm getting out of his Day One thought train.

[penguin_alien]

Whaaaaa
Where did I say I had a town read on Fe. I didn't. I never said Fe considering replacing out was a strong town tell. O.o

I was talking about this:

While Fe is pretty scummy, post #317 was not scummy at all. I don't understand the reactions to it. Uct, Fizz, The Director, please explain (also the chances of at least one of you being scum is quite high due to that chain of reactions, and I don't think it's uct).

and in rereading it, I was mistaken in that you didn't say it was a town tell; you just didn't think supported him being scummy. Not sure I see where you were coming from, as it is my understanding that scum sometimes replace out when under pressure, but that's not a very relevant argument post-Fe flip, so. I shouldn't post on my way out the door, apparently; sorry about misreading that.

Instead of focusing on the outrage of Majiffy having a scum read on both you and someone else, I'd rather hear more about why he's wrong to have a scum read on you at all. Your circling around the theory of scum reads is making you look scummier to me than anything Majiffy and others have actually pointed out.

[penguin_alien]

Lastsurvivor, I'm rereading your ISO and I still don't understand why you think Majiffy is scum. As far as I can tell, you're both voting each other because of your reactions to the other's accusations. What am I missing in your case against Majiffy?

[penguin_alien]

Wow, way to quickhammer with five days left and no call for a claim. Unless I'm missing something, Lastsurvivor didn't claim, nor was he asked to. I haven't seen any reason to skip that step in this set-up, and if this doesn't put us at two for two on nailing scum, I'm going to be looking for a really good explanation from thedirector for the hammer and Nobody Special for saying to hammer at will.

[penguin_alien]

My apologies; I'm going to be V/LA through the Christmas holiday:

Mod: I will be V/LA for ~60 hours; thanks.

Noted. Rach

[penguin_alien]

Maenara talking about wanting to sheep isn't very pro-town either, but I'm more interested in how we ended up lynching Lastsurvivor yesterday based off a bunch of mud-slinging.

And why did Nobody Special put down the L-1 vote and then tell us to hammer at will? And the director went with it? Without asking for a claim? That's not how I've seen things proceed when town are hunting scum.

the director has generally at least been active and scum-hunting during the game (although if he'd like to explain what he thinks I've done that's suspicious that'd be cool) and I suppose warned that he'd be hammering when someone put Lastsurvivor at L-1 a la #960. As such, at the risk of being a broken record, I think Nobody Special has been very scummy for multiple day phases and keeps getting a pass from any real pressure.

VOTE: Nobody Special

[penguin_alien]

It's certainly true that I don't have a high volume posting record, here or in any of the games I've played from the start or subbed into. I'm not on the computer for much of the day, so I tend to have a chance to catch up on any given game in chunks. When I do post I generally attempt to address as much as possible.

WRT calling out the scummy last couple of votes on the Lastsurvivor wagon, look at my first newbie games (1279 and 1292 [caveat: 1292 is ongoing])where I was in from the start: both times I was NK'd early on and didn't have much of a chance to get my opinion out there. (In the interest of completeness my other [completed] games are the one uctriton00 cited in the newbie forum where I flipped scum after replacing in and a micro Chosen game where I replaced in as town, along with a newbie-replacement game 1278 that may give you some info, although I'll warn you that I ended up as conf-town pretty quickly after replacing in due to the way things shifted out) Based on what happened in those games, it seems to me that my low-volume posting makes me an easy NK choice for leaving the town with relatively little information in the morning. Which had me in the mindset of wanting to voice my opinion when I had the chance.

Regarding what borkjerfkin said about my stance on the Lastsurvivor lynch itself, sure, it was probably our best lead of the day. Doesn't mean I don't think we should get maximum information out of said lynch. Lastsurvivor had been pretty responsive in engaging with those attacking him; no reason to quickhammer. I would have liked to hear his last thoughts whether he flipped scum or town. With having Fe's final thoughts, combined with Lastsurvivor's, if that had made two scum lynched we'd have had a lot more to go on. Obvious issues are obvious if he'd claimed a PR: if he had been telling the truth he'd have been at increased danger at night, but we would have had a shot at lynching someone else for that day phase. The only downside to giving him a chance to talk would be if he'd decided to fake-claim a PR, which is still information somewhere down the line. I don't think Lastsurvivor defended himself overly well, but I'm still not getting why the director felt the need to hammer so quickly, even with having quasi-warned of your intentions. We had five days to go, IIRC. Basically, my intention was not to distance myself from the wagon but rather to question why some people felt the need to finish it off so quickly.

As far as #803, I found it peculiar that Kmd4390 had been using such clearcut logic through the rest of his analysis and then gave pirate mollie a pass. It's something I thought should be pointed out, given that the rest of his post was being lauded. I don't think it's very informative unless one of them flips scum, and Kmd4390 didn't avoid addressing the issue, so it's a dead end for me right now.

[penguin_alien]

So reading through Kmd4390's ISO, it seems like he's putting forth a situation where if Nobody Special is lynched and flips scum, Kmd4390 offers himself up for lynch, and if Nobody Special is lynched and flips town. Which is only helpful if Nobody Special and Kmd4390 are the remaining two scum. Not so great if Kmd4390 is scum with someone not Nobody Special and is thereby using him as a shield to throw us off. So the whole self-sacrifice angle makes Kmd4390 seem less town to me, what with the idea that town has no motivation to make us contemplate wasting a lynch, as would be the case if Kmd4390 were town and as such had himself down as certain town.

Someone was putting Majiffy and Kmd4390 forward as a scum team option, which based on how much they've interacted over the course of all three days seems unlikely to me.

Given that there have been serious wagons on Kmd4390 for two days, I feel like there should be a clearer case to go on. Kmd4390 was pushing the minority wagon of Fizz on the day Fe got lynched, but we don't know much about that slot at this point. Then the self-voting today just doesn't seem to have a good motivation from a scum standpoint. Not that it does from a town standpoint either, but my understanding is that the only reason to self-vote in this type of set-up would be as scum cutting off conversation. Which leaves lousy reasons, which tend to be town-sourced. It does fit in a bit too nicely with Majiffy's mention of AtE, but aside from pique, there's no real explanation, particularly since he's been bandying about the 'lynch Nobody Special to get information on me' plan.

Overall it feels like really small sets of circumstances that come together to make a case on Kmd4390. I would consider voting him if we don't have any other consensus on the table come deadline, but I'd feel a lot better about it if anyone can articulate the case against him more clearly than I've been able to construct.

The 'playing like I play town' uctriton00 quote is a non-starter as far as I can see. After his plan to lynch Kmd4390 early on (Day One, IIRC) for information rather than scumminess per se, his posts haven't rung any bells with me. So I'm not following where others are seeing a vote-worthy case. Although if uctriton00 is going to judge my play based on the game we just finished playing together where I flipped scum, I do hope he's looked at the multiple games where I wasn't scum.

Right now I am disinclined to buy that Nobody Special isn't scum. Looking over his ISO again, he manages to be on just about every major wagon with almost no explanation. Very much a 'lynch anyone but me' attitude as far as I can tell from his posts, which I consider to be pretty darned scummy. So my vote's staying where it is.

[penguin_alien]

Nachomamma8, I'm not seeing where my vote on Fe came at a time when a Fe lynch was inevitable. Looking over the thread, between when I voted and when the hammer was placed, ten days passed. Even at the hammer vote, there were still votes on Fizz, which meant some people thought he was more likely to be scum than Fe. Just because Fe ended up as my top scum read doesn't mean I can't find anyone else scummy. And what if we'd been wrong, and Fe had been town playing badly? Why not attempt to elicit information? In the meantime, there was Fizz, whose posts improved just enough for people to stop voting him, and then he vanishes? Go look at his ISO, and then read the reactions to his last content-containing post, and tell me this is an inaccurate characterization of the situation. At the time there was no way to know he'd (as far as I can tell as of now) gone away completely.

In #407, there wasn't much of anything to comment on WRT Fe since my vote post in #389, as activity had died off in the three days that passed between those two points. I had no further arguments against Fe at the time that were new from what I'd made or what other people had said. And in #467, do you really think I was trying to derail the Fe wagon when he was at L-1 and had claimed, and someone was ready to hammer at the time and was only waiting to see if Fe posted final reads?

Kmd4390, my post was my attempt to sort out what reasons people have for voting you. Same goes for my take on uctriton00. I see some scummy activity from your slot, but there's nothing that gels together to make me want to lynch you more than Nobody Special. WRT that, if someone wants to tell me what their counter-argument is to my scum read on Nobody Special is, I'm all ears.

the director, yes, I posted a few hours after you hammered Lastsurvivor. So? That's when I happened to be on the computer and able to catch up on this game--I'd been planning on checking if/what Lastsurvivor's response to my previous post was, and I'll admit to being irritated to find it rendered moot in a way that gave the town minimal information. And I am not seeing at all where I 'appeared out of thin air' after you mentioned me this day phase. If you're talking about me posting my V/LA, for what very little it's worth, I finished my holiday preparations, signed on, and posted my V/LA message for the holiday in all my active games (see completed game Newbie 1304 for a reference point I'm allowed to cite under the site rules; sorry about mentioning Newbie 1292 earlier; I thought it was OK to point there for my personal meta since I'd died, but mea culpa; will not make that mistake in the future). I will cop to clicking 'First unread post' in this game, since I hadn't been on since the day phase opened and would have felt pretty dumb telling people I was V/LA when I was actually dead.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry for the abbreviation confusion, and happy new year to all (who have hopefully sobered up, y/n?)

pirate mollie, my three top scum reads are Nobody Special, Maenara, and Kmd4390 right now, in about that order. Top three town reads are the director, Majiffy, and pirate mollie.

uctriton00, in the only other game I recall playing with you, I flipped scum, and you're saying I'm playing differently here, so I'm scummy? That doesn't track. And I guess some of my posts here are longer than some of my posts in Micro 52, although a quick check puts most of my longest ones around 500 words, which doesn't feel like a wall to me. If you're going to assert that I must be scum for making longish posts, go check out Newbie 1279 and Newbie 1278, both completed, and pull up my ISO.

[penguin_alien]

borkjerfkin, why do you assume that Majiffy must be scum because he's still alive after two nights have passed, one of which didn't have a kill? What rules out him being town who drew both the NK and protection Night Two? Or fill in your choice of night actions that resulted in no kill? Sounds like a set-up to me.

[penguin_alien]

serious question: why are we giving ns as big of a pass as we are?

Search me.

Barring Majiffy being CC'd by the director, Nachomamma8, or Maenara (the only others who haven't posted since he claimed) I don't see a problem there. If I was indeed the target last night (and the lack of kill wasn't a matter of a well-targeted JK on either side of that coin) then it makes me all the more confident in my Nobody Special vote.

borkjerfkin, I apologize for my atrocious 'remembering who actually said what' abilities; apparently my brain got its wires crossed when you quoted the director saying what I misattributed to you. Although with that in mind, I'm not so confident in my town read on the director any more.

[penguin_alien]

@ the director: Given that I've found Nobody Special scummy most of the game, and I now know that the lack of kill last night had a non-zero chance of being a result of my being targeted (obv. barring a CC of Majiffy), the chance that I was targeted because I was vocal about Nobody Special goes up, especially since I indicated I took issue with his unilateral call for a hammer when he was already on the wagon. There is of course WIFOM at play, where I could have been targeted in the hopes that my death would put a bigger target on Nobody Special, but given my not-high profile, that seems less useful to a scum team when there are more high-activity/profile players around.

[penguin_alien]

They're long, so linking as requested:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p4517442
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4523827

And the twilight post from the end of the phase: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p4556325

If you want to see what my stance on him has been throughout the game, you can pull up my ISO and search for Nobody Special--I always use people's full user names, which makes searching easy.

[penguin_alien]

@ the director: what do you actually think about what I've said about Nobody Special? Given that you don't have him down as a scum read (although I get the (very faintest) impression you'll hammer pretty much anyone if given the opportunity /sarcasm) I can't imagine you really think it's 50/50.

I like borkjerfkin's plan; do we implement when someone gets to L-1, given the excess of people lining up to hammer anyone they can reach, or some time before then?

Maenara, are Kmd4390 and uctriton00 still your scum suspects (assuming Majiffy's doc claim puts him off the table)?

[penguin_alien]

P-edit: since it looks like we're putting in our JK nominees now, if we don't lynch Nobody Special he's my first choice, with Maenara as my choice if Nobody Special does get lynched.

[penguin_alien]

No one's suggesting we nail down the doctor and the JK if we end the day with multiple scum at large. The alternate target suggestion is only to be implemented if we hit scum with today's lynch. And I don't think anyone's suggesting we nail down the doctor at all.

[penguin_alien]

We don't want to suggest that the JK only target Majiffy if today's lynch flips town, since that gives scum a free shot at anyone else. (by alternate target selection, I meant whoever is agreed upon as the JK target in the event of a scum lynch, not alternating between Majiffy-someone else) The doc target choice should be used in any event; he's not guaranteed to be roleblocked in any situation.

Exact percentages aren't particularly relevant unless they're 100%/0%, as anything else leaves sufficient uncertainty.

[penguin_alien]

pirate mollie, Nachomamma8 was kind of wishy-washy on both scum lynches--not a very decisive attitude from a bussing scumbuddy, and the apologizing to uctriton00 seems anvilicious from a scumbuddy as well. I'm not seeing Nachomamma8 as a strong candidate there.

Nachomamma8, I assume you're talking about Kmd4390's assertion that if uctriton00 flipped scum, buldermar was the buddy? I'd like to hear that case.

[penguin_alien]

I'd get grumpy over people planning my lynch for Day 7 but one does hope we'll have found better leads than my possibly being both protected (twice) and roleblocked in the same night before then; with three days' worth of votes and discussion.

borkjerfkin, why is buldermar such a strong read for you? I think you said something about that, but I don't see a case as strong as those on Majiffy (yeah...conftown there at this point) or even Maenara.

[penguin_alien]

Heh, I've heard of popcorn claiming, but not popcorn lynching.

[penguin_alien]

borkjerfkin, do you mean Fizz?

[penguin_alien]

...so three people think Nachomamma8 is scummy enough to vote, and even though he's been saying I'm cleared due to role interactions and should be last on a lynching list, suddenly I'm a scum pick with no reason given. And rather than attempt to put together an argument, he decides to put forward a popcorn lynching idea (which I can only assume Majiffy went with for the laughs) and self-hammer as town before everyone had checked in for the day. And this is the guy whose plan you want to follow. Brilliant. About the only positive I see is that it was put forward by now-confirmed town, so as misguided as it may be, it's not coming from scum. I'd have objected more strenuously last day phase if I'd realized Nachomamma8 had self-hammered, but it would have been all over but the twilight anyways, so here we are.

If y'all are gung-ho on following this asinine plan, fine, but I hope you can get back to actual scum-hunting at some point. Because I've certainly seen my share of games where most of the scum team gets strung up early and the last scum standing weasels his way to a victory because everyone thinks they have plenty of time to lynch haphazardly.

I don't have a lot of faith in my scum detection skills this game, as my two top suspects became obvtown with uctriton00's scum flip and the director's presumed action two nights ago, plus there's at least one person who hasn't posted since uctriton00's flip. Even so, if you really want to go with this, I'd appreciate 24 hours to let me reassess my reads. I'd like to leave the town with some thoughts to move forward with.

[penguin_alien]

At the risk of encouraging this descent into roulette, one scum left, pirate mollie.

Maenara, by my reckoning I'd count you as the closest thing we have to guaranteed town. That's one. Then there's the idea that uctriton00 was not likely pushing his buddy's lynch as emphatically as he did Nobody Special's, making Nobody Special the next best thing to likely town. After that, I don't think there's anyone who has a good case for being lynchproof. In order for popcorn lynching to be a viable plan for the rest of the game, we need four lynchproof people, one for each remaining night kill and two to form a majority at LyLo. I can't see where you (Maenara) come up with three other people you're willing to bet the game on being town right now. Others might have it easier, as they are at least pretending to work from the self-confirmed town POV, but that still leaves everyone needing one absolutely immutable town read aside from themselves, Maenara, and Nobody Special, and based on Kmd4390's vote, at least one other person doesn't believe that Nobody Special is cleared by uctriton00's flip.

buldermar, since you're apparently in favor of this popcorn lynching plan to string up someone who was under protection on a no-kill night, who are your three other unlynchables besides yourself (yes, this means you can't put yourself down as one of your town reads like you did in replying to pirate mollie's survey) to make this plan work? I'm assuming borkjerfkin's haven't changed from buldermar, Nobody Special, and Maenara, although I don't concur that buldermar getting involved in the JK planning discussion was overly town. Given that I suspect scum had a bead on the director for his pushing me out of nowhere following a no-kill night, the whole thing was probably moot.

Nothing's happened since Day 3 to change my town read on pirate mollie. It seems rather convoluted for borkjerfkin to get the ball rolling on the JK target planning if he was just going to kill the most likely JK directly, moving him down my list. I'm reserving my thoughts on Kmd4390 until I hear why he thinks Nobody Special is scum post-uctriton00 flip. He was initially going to give us a case on buldermar if uctriton00 flipped scum, which happened, so I would like to know why that's changed.

buldermar on the other hand spends a lot of time encouraging the JK target speculation, messes around with the uctriton00 wagon a lot via jumping on and off, to the point of trying to derail it in the same post where he votes for him:

Isn't Uct wagon a bit dated, though?

VOTE: uct

and waltzes in today with the easy UTR vote. He avoids putting forward information where possible, as in his three town/scum reads where he basically lists two for each, and tries to smoke out PRs with things like his posting at the start of Day 3 about implying that he saved pirate mollie, when we know based on flips that such was not the case.

VOTE: Buldermar

[penguin_alien]

Nothing I haven't already voiced. And if you're really going to stick with this plan, then yes, I want buldermar for the next lynch. As was the obvious answer to your question after my post, buldermar. Why would I have fed a game plan I think is ill-advised by only saying what you wanted me to say? And as back-up, in case I'm wrong and scum is someone else who NKs buldermar, I'd put Kmd4390 as my next best scum read for reasons I've discussed in the past.

And Maenara, your idea that us stringing up those people post-flip confirmed townies tell us to isn't so sensible--you yourself are the next best thing to confirmed town, but you said that your reads shouldn't be sheeped. Why are Nachomamma8's any better?

[penguin_alien]

Nice play town; fellow scum, sorry I couldn't pull that out, but it was fun working with you while it lasted.

I would love to know what made Nachomamma8 so confident that I was the last scum (although I'll point out that the people who were likely to be alive the next day, since Majiffy was the necessary NK choice, didn't agree to the popcorn lynch plan) if he doesn't mind sharing.

I was really surprised that the director didn't JK me again Night 3; I really lucked out with the Majiffy protection. I probably should have let myself get lynched that day to give uctriton00 a better chance of making it, but live and learn.

Thanks to RachMarie for modding, and thanks to everyone in the Graveyard for providing such entertaining commentary!

[penguin_alien]

Ech, bunch of armchair quarterbacks! Nah, you made the right decision in the end, and close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, not Mafia.

[penguin_alien]

Thanks for the feedback, Nachomamma8! I see where I got too excited over netting the doctor protection (I figured I was up a tree WRT the director, since I'd suspected even near the end of Night Two that he was a PR) and lost the town mindset. Oh, I remember what I wanted to ask: has popcorn lynching been done to good effect in other games?