Gay Mafia II: RIDE THE LIGHTNING (Game Over)

[zoraster]

oh good. the game hasn't even been open 24 hours yet has 18 pages worth of catchup to do, which will take a while, and I'm being set up for a shot because I'm "lurking."

I have read very little of this game (page 1 and pages 18-20), but vig directing after not even a full day smacks of trying way too hard.

[zoraster]

Ouch.

Except apparently unlike yourself I can actually manage to read a 23 page game without getting lost in my ADHD, and I have more content to my name so far than you'll ever have this game?


Pedit: hah. You go form reads from players that have posted <5 times, why don't you. Stop wasting my time, punk.

Taking at face value your claim for having "content," is someone who posted more content in the first 24 hours more likely to be town?

[zoraster]

VOTE: Wyrd

[zoraster]

Does your avatar have scoliosis, OD?

[zoraster]

Now, if we want to start a P-hydra wagon - I'm in. It's true that I do have a town-lean read on him, but this entire thread would be so much more bearable were he not in it - and in a game this large I'd be willing to sacrifice a town-lean for a much better rest of the game.

VOTE: Thunderhog

Getting tired of this line of reasoning. Waaah the thread is too long. Yeah. It is. And it kind of sucks. but you don't win games by simply lynching annoying people. He set up the whole "I hate hydras" thing in his first fluffy post, then said he'd "support" a wagon he does not support as scum. DGB also is guilty of this, but I get town from her.

[zoraster]

come on, kuribo. That was kind of awesome.

[zoraster]

i laughed.

[zoraster]

Going to go have posture problems somewhere else?

[zoraster]

er. I thought I was on the latest page and thought I was responding to OD:

[zoraster]

v/la until tuesday.

[zoraster]

unvote Thunderhog

I'm back. Fortunately it doesn't seem like things have gotten too out of control over the weekend.

[zoraster]

I was voting TH before it's likely I may again after I review things. It wasn't a judgment on him being not-scummy or anything

[zoraster]

VOTE: Thunderhog

Finally got around to catching up. TH is as good a lynch now as he was before. I find it particularly telling that, at least from what I can glean, the timeline worked kinda like this:

TH posted pretty actively with big ol' quote posts.
Momentum on TH starts. He keeps posting.
Momentum stalls somewhat but isn't GONE. I unvote him.
TH goes radio silent (has not posted since Monday)

My point being this: he feels like his posting got him in some trouble because he's been pretty scummy. So first he goes for the direct try. His towniness-through-honesty for example:

Damned right I'm trying to word my posts carefully! I got damned-near shanked a couple pages back for wording my posts 'incorrectly'. You bet your ass I'm being careful now.

When I first read this I actually thought it sounded somewhat town. But the more I thought about it, it seems like he's almost mad that technicalities are catching him.

But when that didn't "free" him from attention, his response was to disappear and lurk now that momentum had stalled. He saw that at least some people were getting off his wagon (e.g. me), and thought just slipping out would work.

[zoraster]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p4555995 overjustification of a vote. will get empire to meta check zoraster on this. feels weird based on zor!town I've known who seems a bit lazier than his scum self

Zor was pretty obviously responding to my question about TH.

It actually wasn't a response this time. At least not a direct one. I just laid out what I saw. Obviously my "overexplaining" was a good idea because at least one person voted based on the reasoning.

[zoraster]

sort of just bad timing with christmas, nighttime, etc. really.

VOTE: jacob

didn't particularly like his TH vote at the end. Don't like how he explains his town reads far more than his scum ones, and the scum reads seem to be a struggle for him to come up with. also, his reads appear to just be a mirror of whatever the other person is saying.

[zoraster]

it would be pretty effing weird if everyone had different reasoning for voting the same person.

[zoraster]

tough.

[zoraster]

people don't change alignments between post 1 and post 300, so if post 1 is scummy, there's no reason i should focus on something less enlightening. not all posts are of the same importance, and I will address those that I find relevant. that pretty much goes as a response to all your whining that i'm not getting involved in the eye-glazing monotony of your 172 posts.

[zoraster]

you first.

[zoraster]

Why did you hop on the Wyrd wagon? Do you still think DGB is town? These are the kind of things I want answered from you.

It seemed like a fair wagon at the time, and I wanted to see what they'd do. Yes I do think she is town.

[zoraster]

I did what thing again?

[zoraster]

fate: is JS town? has DGB done this before where she has a "faketownsplosion" and is scum?

[zoraster]

is there a reason you're not flavor claiming as well as power?

[zoraster]

i am not phoning it in: scum or town.

[zoraster]

correlation =/= scummation.

[zoraster]

Tentative +7 on Zoraster in the event that Ythan is scum. The reason for this that Zoraster has avoided actually stating a position one way or the other on the claim, and has instead just questioned the manner in which it was made

yes. because all positions must be arrived at immediately and stated loudly, especially and even if it comes from someone who I would suspect of shenanigans even as town. Lining up lynches for this lame reason? scummy.

anyway, my vote will be on ythan once he decides to post.

[zoraster]

I hope you're satisfied with my offering, om nom.

[zoraster]

om nom suspected me and of my pushers (?) I thought he was most town, so i selected him. I waited until day 2 because I had no reads and my role PM didn't actually say that I would be confirmed to my target, just that SOMEONE would be. And I only had the one shot power, so as long as I lived to N2 it'd work.

Anyway, I almost hate to start the long night again, but I'm going to hammer unless there are objections?

[zoraster]

k

[zoraster]

Claimed result or just super sleuthing skill?

[zoraster]

I can confirm that DeltaWave is what he says he is (assuming no CC), though I have no information as to his alignment.

VOTE: SPB

[zoraster]

Role information that confirms the existence of God. I'm Lucifer, and I'm a hated townie. I have the power of forbidden knowledge (i.e. i can target one other player who will learn the alignment of one other player). That's the power I used on Om Nom. I didn't realize it would confirm

me

as town, which is why I immediately said something on the start of the Day so Om Nom would know that I was the one that sent it to him.

[zoraster]

It doesn't specifically say THERE IS ONLY ONE GOD, but it only refers to one God.

P-edit: Delta, it specifically refers to God in the flavor. It says God owes me, but unfortunately God ruined my reputation.

[zoraster]

by the way, i only know we have a God, not who the God is.

[zoraster]

For's DeltaWave's sake.

[zoraster]

Also, I believe DW over SPB because my role explicitly references God as a role in the game, which DW claimed, but SPB had some other role name. That doesn't necessarily mean that DW is town.

[zoraster]

Dear Diary,

Wyrd as scum was probably the most predictable result I have seen. I wonder if we can figure out who his teammates are.

Love,
Zoraster

[zoraster]

Dear Diary,

I think the mods are making up shit as they go. Is this something I should be concerned about?

Love,
Zor

[zoraster]

your whole avatar is fabulous enough.

[zoraster]

is there a reason we're not lynching SPB?

VOTE: SPB

[zoraster]

are you always this scummy late in the game?

[zoraster]

PS. 15 left, not exactly end game here.

[zoraster]

om is young, not dumb. nice try.

[zoraster]

what do you mean with that last part? DGB for zor's sake, etc.

[zoraster]

Mod is there a game reason why the OP isn't updated with the dead as dead?

[zoraster]

Zoraster are you denying that you used your Forbidden Knowledge on DGB?

Yes.

[zoraster]

My power was one shot. Om Nom was the only person to receive it.

[zoraster]

I'm fabulous just by being, bitch.

[zoraster]

gah. need to get on this. been putting it off because I know it's going to involve actual work. Easy mode is now off, sadly. Do we have any outstanding night action activity that we know about (other than obviously the kills) or have they all been resolved by the death of members?

[zoraster]

@ zoraster

You claimed

Hated Townie

, correct?

I read this in the Wiki:

It is debatable whether it is better to not claim Hated Townie. By not claiming you are opening yourself up to getting run up to L-1 and thus unexpectedly lynched; by claiming you are making yourself a policy lynch on the Day before LyLo.

Do you have an opinion?

Sorry, I really have meant to get to this.

An opinion? considered it and rejected.

[zoraster]

massclaiming is a good idea at this point i think.

[zoraster]

gee. you really helped your cause there, magua.

[zoraster]

i'm not whining. I'm telling you that if you want me to vote vollkan, that was a pretty stupid way to go about doing it.

As for me getting "compromise lynched" you'd only do that if you were either (a) not town or (b) really dumb.

[zoraster]

Any incapacity you have for ignoring a confirmed town with a town result on me, having correctly identified and pushed for the SPB lynch, taking DW's side (confirming he was who he said he was) is far more damning, Magua. I may have been inactive, but that doesn't make me suddenly scum, and acting like it does is a pretty clear indication you do not have a town win in mind, hoping to push through some sort of easy lynch that no one can blame pretty Magua for because omg they made you make the error!

[zoraster]

What do you mean? I did not particularly relish coming out as a hated townie, and thought it'd come across as a pretty lame attempt to stop my lynch. Additionally, highlighting that I was a power role (since it seems unlikely that reck would give JUST a hated townie) was not a great idea given that my death would have shut down God (though I admit part of me thought there was a chance I was an enabler for a scum Dreaming God).

[zoraster]

can i just look at the answer in the back of the book?

[zoraster]

do you think today is mylo, magua?

[zoraster]

sorry, that was actually a dumb question. what i mean is what do you think is the player count for the teams? Because it's pretty relevant in whether or not offing me right now makes any sense at all.

[zoraster]

Assume it is 6:1:1.

Lynch town, two town are killed: 3:1:1.

Now assume that we lynch scum, and then the remaining scum shoots: 2:1. Except that the scum can then immediately vote zoraster to lynch him (and some mods may allow the scum to pre-send this in, "Vote zoraster at the start of the Day" or whatnot, depending). If not, then the only way for town to win now is for the town to post to show zoraster he's not voting, vote the other guy, and for zoraster to hammer before the scum gets online. Not the best.

This actually makes a great deal of sense. I just thought about it and even if we lynch scum today, that doesn't net us anything except a 3:1 lylo instead of a 2:1 lylo. assuming 6:1:1, of course.

[zoraster]

sorry i should say that if we lynch scum today then mislynch a not-zoraster tomorrow, then it leads to 3:1 rather than 2:1.

[zoraster]

so this is a question: why even bother try for vollkan today, Magua? As best I can tell you don't have a 100% scum read on him (just heavily suspect him), and even if he's scum you'll need to lynch me next (or else have a sure read on someone else). is it just that you think you're dying tonight?

[zoraster]

oh, i understand you now. I'm just trying to think about whether i want vollkan lynched. I'm okay being lynched today.

[zoraster]

mod moved the deadline, magua.

[zoraster]

Well, sure. DGB is a huge noise to signal ratio person, vollkan stands completely counter to that. Both are kind of scummy for it, but ultimately I find DGB town. Less decided on vollkan and need to think on that. I am frankly confused as to your certainty of vollkan being scum, but it's not because I find him town.

From being in that ill-fated Flay game together, I know that you don't try to moderate or change your play for mechanical advantage thing as scum, so I give you no points for the analysis you have provided, helpful though it has been.

I think dramonic is likely SK, though to be fair that's something I think you're fairly likely to be as well.

Trollie, Iec and Zoid I read as town.

[zoraster]

Why in the world would I full claim first if I have stuff OTHER than that, dram? No. You'll claim before me.

[zoraster]

as do I.

[zoraster]

Unlike you, however, I am basically confirmed town.

[zoraster]

Gee. I wonder who is more clear here? Zoraster, who was confirmed town by Om, who has flipped town, or dramonic who is probably waiting to bullshit based on our claims. Use your head, DGB, and stop reacting to things only with your gut. Are you a conspiracy theorist in real life? Do you believe the frankly unbelievable more readily than the simple and up front?

[zoraster]

If you don't claim now, I'll vote you, and you'll be hammered.

You have exactly NO CHOICE.

Nope. You're scum. The whole aggressive wild person thing worked for a while, but has shown itself. An actual town person wouldn't try this.

[zoraster]

Zoidburg

: Is your voteless thing just a today thing or is it for the rest of the game?

[zoraster]

Nope. You're scum. The whole aggressive wild person thing worked for a while, but has shown itself. An actual town person wouldn't try this.

READ.

MY.

SIG.

I'm sorry. Does it say, "I'm allowed to act nuts to the detriment of town and yet still escape lynch" in invisible text?

[zoraster]

DGB, even if you're going to believe in your sig like it's some sort of gospel that no one can deny, wouldn't the amount of time that's gone since I've stated that I'm claiming last (which I am absolutely going to do) and now be enough for me to craft my fake claim? In any case, I am going to work. Have fun with trying to fight the game.

[zoraster]

Where have I lied? On my phone in the car si quick typing at a stop light: is towns only chance a no lunch crosskill at this point? I think it may be (see maguas numbers)

[zoraster]

Ps Magua autocorrected to mafia. Kinda cool.

[zoraster]

After working it out, I actually believe the only way for town to win, assuming we are in a 3:1:1 situation, is to have both scum kill each other simultaneously. Our odds for this are BEST if we lynch a non-zoraster TOWN today, slightly worse if we lynch a zoraster town today, and worse still if we no lynch.

Scum lynch is an auto-loss unless scum decide to actually kill me.

[zoraster]

anyway, probably want iec or someone to check my math on that, but as utterly crazy as that sounds, I think that's actually the best path forward.

[zoraster]

I think it assumes I am hated townie (not just regular townie) and all of you are not town killing roles, yes. I am anxiously waiting for your vigilante claim, though.

[zoraster]

Hey why don't you CLAIM since you have time to waste plotting of hypothetical scum X-kills?

did you think my not claiming had anything to do with time? Anyway, given that the best course of action today may well be to lynch me (since assuring we lynch a town member today that's not me may not be worth the risk), you have just about zero power to compel me to claim anything but last.

[zoraster]

and they are hypothetical crosskills, but my point is that although the chance for said cross kill varies between 11% and 25% (if I'm lynched today and if i'm not lynched today, respectively), that's our only chance of a win assuming we're not actually looking at 4:1 with a vigilante here.

[zoraster]

EBWOP:

and they are hypothetical crosskills, but my point is that although the chance for said cross kill varies between 11% and 25% (if I'm lynched today and if i'm not lynched

but another town is

today, respectively), that's our only chance of a win assuming we're not actually looking at 4:1 with a vigilante here.

EDIT: Change in blue.

[zoraster]

are you a big believer in conspiracy theories, DGB? Just because you can imagine something doesn't make it the most likely explanation. When we are done with this game, if you are not scum and I am not scum, I think you need to reevaluate the way you think about the game. The goal isn't to once in a while be right on some crazy theory. It's to be right more often than not.

[zoraster]

well in this case it's kind of relevant. Someone who believes in conspiracies is the kind of person who can convince themselves of extremely unlikely things just because they contemplated it in the first place in sort of a self-reinforcing feedback loop.

Another comparison might be to pundits who make bold predictions because people tend to remember big correct predictions but forget incorrect ones. (http://www.pundittracker.com/pages/about). In this case, maybe DGB doesn't even believe that it's likely I'm scum, but damn wouldn't it feel good if she fought all logic and was actually correct about this! If she's not, who cares? no one will remember. But being right on something like this is what scummies are built off of!

[zoraster]

here's another question: I've already claimed a fairly significant chunk of my role throughout the course of the game. What do you think DGB thinks I'm REALLY trying to accomplish by claiming last? What about you, dram? What would be the benefit to me if I were scum in this situation to not just claiming I am what I've already stated? If I'm the last scum, I would want to lynch the opposing scum or vigilante, of course, but I wouldn't REALLY care because it's so unlikely that the other scum is going to shoot me given my claimed hated townie status.

It just makes no sense. I'm not even sure why I'm entertaining this other than I want you to claim, dram. Or at least after Iec does.

[zoraster]

how did my confirmation come from the JOAT that i recruited?

Dram didn't catch me in a lie.

And as I said, there is zero chance I am claiming before dram. And that's because lynching me may be the best thing for the town, so there is zero leverage for you. The only way I don't want to be lynched is if we can with reasonable possibility identify a town member.

Let me say that again to you: There is zero chance I will claim before dram because

you have no power to make me do so

.

[zoraster]

No, I got a result PM stating that zor is town. I don't have a cop role.

Is what confirms me. Om nom is not a JOAT, he was a vengeful lover. Unless you think that this game is bastard, Om nom is town and would have no reason to lie about me being town. In fact, he believed to his core that I was scum until the new day, pushing really really hard for my lynch.

[zoraster]

wait. you think that the JOAT had the power to confirm me to om nom even though I'm scum? I don't even understand how you think that'd make sense. It'd still require bastard moderation, right? As in, the mod is going to basically mod confirm that a scum member is town to a town member?

Om nom got a RESULT PM, he didn't get a "message PM" or whatever it was the JOAT sent. I assume there is a pretty big difference and that Om knows the difference.

You claimed to have gotten a joat message before, right? What did it look like?

[zoraster]

Dram didn't catch me in a lie.

I believe that he did.

He didn't claim, but he said he caught you in a lie.

You on the other hand, are pretending that there is a reason why you should go last. If you are a weak Hated Mafiate, and you pretended to have a power that belonged to your dead JOAT scumbuddy, I believe you have no other power.

You are merely scheming for dram to show his had before you show yours.

To what cause? What would I possibly gain from that?

[zoraster]

oh no! You vote for me! I get lynched! Like I've partially advocated already! You've really foiled my plans there, DGB.

Entertain for a moment that I'm town, as is by all logical reasoning the most likely scenario. Do you at least see why I'm saying we would need to lynch town from my perspective?

[zoraster]

Tell you what, I'll make a deal that we can all follow. I claim last (After dram in particular), and I will vote myself to be lynched. you can hammer me. in fact, i'll vote myself in the SAME POST where I full claim.

For our chances of winning, it is less great than lynching a different town member, but it still gives us a chance to win and doesn't run the risk of accidentally lynching a scum person.

pEDIT: Responding to your post in a different post, iec.

[zoraster]

Iec

The difference is that no scum, unless they've convinced themselves I am the other scum, will shoot me. So from each scum's perspective, if I'm alive there's a 50% of killing the other scum (since they know I am not scum and will not shoot me) instead of a 33% chance if we lynch town instead.

[zoraster]

yeah, that's fair. if you claim and it changes it, I'll change my tune on some of this stuff.

[zoraster]

Iec

The difference is that no scum, unless they've convinced themselves I am the other scum, will shoot me. So from each scum's perspective, if I'm alive there's a 50% of killing the other scum (since they know I am not scum and will not shoot me) instead of a 33% chance if we lynch

me instead (since the scum won't know that any of the townies are town or not)

.

fixed in blue.

[zoraster]

I can't decide if I love a game where town has to be smart enough to lynch a townie in late game or hate it.

[zoraster]

yup. don't really know what you're trying to accomplish here, DGB. i have my reasons.

[zoraster]

really? no reason? like maybe claiming last limits your ability to bullshit? if you do and i can call you on it, then it makes it more likely that the other scum will target you, meaning that your shot (assuming you're an SK or mafia member) will be the only one we're depending on for the win.

[zoraster]

here's the question: from my perspective, what benefit do I gain from letting you claim last, after me? None. None benefit.

[zoraster]

Because you've already implied that you've got a claim.

If you're scum and thinking straight, you'll realize that you still have to come off as not-scum in order to try to avoid your real opponent's bullet (the real opponent being the other scum). If you're town, you don't really lose anything by claiming first, do you?

[zoraster]

why do you say likely exactly, Iec? I think that definitely changes the game, but that hedge word worries me.

[zoraster]

also, ignoring dram now.

My full claim:

I am Lucifer. I am

God's enabler

(god needs me, though when I PMed the mods to ask whether God knows this about me, they said fuck no). I have forbidden knowledge, which means that I can target a player, and he will learn the alignment of another player in the game. Finally, I don't care that I have a bad reputation, which means I'm a hated townie.

Really, I was mostly just bullshitting to put dram in an awkward position, but being God's enabler is the reason I knew DW was the real dreaming god and not SPB. It's also the reason I wasn't super excited about claiming my stuff.

[zoraster]

playing along, why did you target OD for 3 nights?

[zoraster]

i don't know if it's chance or if the mods designed it that way, but I wasn't told that he'd get information on me. I guess I just assumed that they set it up so that he'd get alignment information on me from the start, but i suppose they could have done it randomly or something.

[zoraster]

in a mafia game? never!

[zoraster]

i think she claimed VT?

[zoraster]

So... DGB you planning to claim something more direct than posting youtube videos?
Zoid, confirm that ALL you do is fruit vendoring.
zor, anything besides being hated?
iece, claim.

OH I thought we hadn't decided yet. I'm Nick Cage and I think I've dropped some hints that I'm a powerless vanilla townie.

[zoraster]

I believe Iec. Therefore, two out of three are scum: DGB, dram, Zoid.

While there exists some possibility that the unlikely chain of events makes dram town, it is not really worth worrying about.

The concern is DGB vs. Zoid.

[zoraster]

there is no compromise. either we get this right: 2 for 2 AND iec gets jailkeeper (or RB or vigilante) tonight or we lose.

[zoraster]

right. 2 for 2.

[zoraster]

one of the JoAT's powers? a second mafia kill? it's an interesting question.

[zoraster]

wait how?

[zoraster]

no no i mean where's the first extra kill?

[zoraster]

...complete with vigilante kill, investigations, etc. not the same as an extra kill.

[zoraster]

which still isn't the same, though the fact there were only two deaths N1 and 2 suggests that quilford didn't shoot or was blocked in some manner.

[zoraster]

I am pretty awesome, and you're cornered scum. Logic here should tell you that a townie confirming me as town from the mod assures that I am town. The alternative is a hugely twisted attempt to find ways that it wouldn't happen. I appreciate the attempt given process of elimination leads to you, but it's pretty eye rollingly contrived.

I think it's time to decide whether to lynch dram or dgb, JK the other. Iec has the power here, so I think Iec chooses who goes first.

By the way,

Iec

if for some reason we lynch town (i.e. if zoid is scum instead of whoever we lynch), don't JK at all. From scum's perspective, if they assume you're town, that'll assure that scum are basically forced to crosskill or else they face a losing game.

[zoraster]

Could also be a dreaming god ability for all we know.

Zoidberg cant be mafia

If iece isn't town we're entirely fucked.

DGB could be either really.

If DGB flips sk, one of me or zoraster is mafia. Mod has confirmed block cant be redirected, so I say I should be jked. That way, if you think I'm scum I can't shoot someone and quicklynch zor, and if its zor the quicklynch thing won't happen.

If dgb flips mafia redirector, that will prove I didn't lie about my action to iece and it puts the sk between zoid and zor. Block zoid for same reason you'd block me.

If dgb flips mafia anything else, I'm super confused.

if dgb flips town, iece should probably not act and hope scumkills.


Thoughts

sorry, missed it with all of the noise from DGB.

From my perspective, this only worries me because of the off chance you might be strongman or something.

That said, the chance of seeing if DGB is mafia redirector is interesting as this would in some way validate you, though obviously not totally.

[zoraster]

Really, I was mostly just bullshitting to put dram in an awkward position,

yeah, and that and the claim stalling.

you'll have to tell me after the game whether you're actually incapable of telling the difference between solid evidence and slight scum-read type "evidence" or if you're just playing this up.

[zoraster]

i mean, that seems a pretty coherent scum strategy?

[zoraster]

sometimes scum say one thing and believe another. not really a surprise there. especially if scum think it'll set up this type of argument.

[zoraster]

can we review why zoidberg "can't" be the scum?

[zoraster]

so couldn't he have redirected and killed last night? i guess it'd be pretty weird to have a mafia fruit vendor, but not unheard of.

[zoraster]

did i miss who got your fruit last night?

[zoraster]

could, but as he's pretty much provided us our only proactive way of winning (as opposed to praying for cross kills), we're kind of left with no choice.

[zoraster]

well yes. because if he's scum, then we need to lynch town in order to win.

[zoraster]

if that's your call, can we lynch zoidberg then, iec? i'd rather do it that way since he's the one I'm more in doubt of than DGB. i know it's been mentioned, but we 100% have mod confirmation that JK on Redirector will result in redirector being blocked?

[zoraster]

Actually, using our assumptions, it might make more sense to lynch who we think is more likely town, but I wouldn't put it up to that, honestly.

This is the way it goes. For this reason: unless scum think I am lying, we win ASSUMING Iec is town AND gets JK (which is not 100%) AND I'm the hated townie, we have an expected win rate of 66.7%. Here's why:

Scum is 2 out of 3: GDB, Dram, DGB, zoid

Chance of lynching scum now: 66.7%

IF Correct, chance of JKing scum: 50%

EV if correct: 33.3%

If INCORRECT, chance of crosskill:

100%

Total EV: 66.7%

---

Now obviously this is where theory does not meet reality. I prefer to keep the game in town's hands rather than scum. Although theoretically, both scum HAVE to kill the other scum or they lose, therefore they will shoot the most likely scum, that is not actually 100% because people do dumb things. Plus, they may think it's worth risking shooting either you or me on the off chance we're bullshitting (in this case, the scum who shoots the other scum would win while the one who went for the off chance will lose). It's all one big mutually assured destruction scenario.

So because of the unpredictability of scum action, I don't advocate going for the townier one. I'd rather take the 50/50 shot tonight than the theoretical 100% one. But I think we actually sit fairly pretty IF our assumptions are correct.

[zoraster]

oh right. then we're back to square one. in which case, lynching dgb actually does seem the sensible policy, right? because if dgb is town, then there isn't a redirector, in which case dram and zoid will be free to shoot each other.

I wonder....

Mod: In the hypothetical case of only an SK and a mafia member alive, would it be a draw or who would win? Also, can we get a vote count just 'cuz?

[zoraster]

The whole point is that scum have scum narrowed down for them, so they shoot each other. lynching me, even if you assume iec is town, means there is only a 44% chance of double cross-kills tonight among the three suspected people. If dram is not scum and there is a redirector, that chance is drastically reduced.

[zoraster]

the question isn't whether you were on everyone's shit list. it's whether you were on a tracker/reporter's shit list.

[zoraster]

because that's clearly what I "want" and said:

So because of the unpredictability of scum action, I don't advocate going for the townier one. I'd rather take the 50/50 shot tonight than the theoretical 100% one. But I think we actually sit fairly pretty IF our assumptions are correct.

The SK being potentially being BP is actually a fairly good point, though. Still, in the event we lynch town, it is the only hope.

[zoraster]

Well, either such a message would say something like: "You got a message last night that said...." or it'd be bastard. There is no third option here.

Do you think that Om, who was screaming for my lynch the day before, would be likely to misread a PM and just assume I was town? I suspect he would take any PM that sounded like it came from a player with deep skepticism. But that didn't happen.

by the way, waiting on a response from the mod for something else right now.

[zoraster]

i know all this number stuff goes over your head or you just don't care, DGB, but that question had a purpose for town. But no, this question is highly relevant to town. or at least it may be depending on the answer.

[zoraster]

And Om is 14, not stupid.

[zoraster]

because you've gotten so much traction from everyone else. I'm not getting lynched today because I am town-confirmed town. It's as simple as that. Your efforts to try and get rid of that certainty do nothing at best and actively hurt our ability to analyze the situation at worst.

Regardless, I'm still waiting for answers to both my public question and my private one.

MOD: Who wins in the case of SK vs. Mafia as the only ones left alive? NAR would have me believe that both would kill each other at the same time thus ending in a draw/everyone loses situation, but I'd like to confirm that.

[zoraster]

MOD: Who wins in the case of SK vs. Mafia as the only ones left alive?

Zoraster pretends not to know this depends on what powers each have left...

i am not asking based on the potential power roles that scum may have. Anyway, the roles that seem most likely are mafia redirector and SK Bulletproof. In the redirector case it makes no difference unless they allow a redirector to redirect someone back at them, which doesn't seem likely. In the case of the SK BP, then the SK presumably wins outright, though that's not necessarily definite (I think there was an MD thread fairly recently that discussed endgame with SK BP and there was some disagreement on how to handle that. I'll see if either of our mods commented), but that doesn't change the desire for an answer to the question. Why does having this question answered bother you?

And yes. There is the private question. Tough shit.

[zoraster]

meh. i think the thread I was thinking of didn't really dive into that that much: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=23668 (although magua does say "I sidestep these problems entirely by having my serial killers win if everyone dies, and win if they get into a 1v1." I don't really think magua is the standard though).

[zoraster]

why in the world would they do that?

[zoraster]

I have an answer to my private question (mostly, need a slight clarification that isn't that important overall). The response was that the one mod would need to consult the other (UT needs to consult Reck) before answering the SK vs. Mafia question. Once I have that answer, I can determine how to proceed.

[zoraster]

Scum can't leave Iecerint alive if he's not scum so the correct play is for

both scums

to shoot Iecerint down. No-lynching today would pretty much mean that we'd be {two townies, two scums} tomorrow, without Iecerint (assuming Iecerint-town). If zoraster isn't lying about Hated status, town loses regardless of zoraster's alignment.

I think the correct play here is to lynch zoraster.

Chances are 100% that he's lying, 95% that he's scum, and in the off-chance that he's not scum, we still need to lynch him.

With this play, best case scenario, we should have a 3-player end game with one scum, or 4-player end game with one scum if Iecerint jailkeeps properly (in which case the town wins). Worst case scenario, we have a 3-player end game with two scums, or a 4-player end game with two scums but AT LEAST we're not end gaming with a HATED player. This last situation is inevitable if we no-lynch. Lynching zoraster considerably brightens our prospects.

Zoraster-town ought to agree with that, but he won't because he's scum.

@ dramonic - can you check my calculations for accuracy?

you are out of your fucking mind, and you cannot possibly believe the things you are saying. If you want someone who is showing clear desperation, then boom. this is it.

Scum can 100% leave iec alive because they HAVE TO. Unless you believe that we have two mafia left (this after all your screaming that the scum is too overpowered without a hated mafioso), they have to shoot for each other, hoping the other doesn't shoot for them. Shooting the JK

does nothing for them

. Walk out the possibilities: either the JK blocks them OR he doesn't. In the first case, the shot won't go through ANYWAY, whether they shoot for the JK or not. In the second case, it does no good to shoot the JK because he's NOT BLOCKING THEM. This should be simple.

Lynching me does no good because all it does it widen the possibilities of no cross kills (since scum have 2 possibilities to shoot now instead of just one) and it DOESN'T give us an opportunity to use the JK power in a winning situation.

I don't really know what DGB's game is here. It's possible she's just stupid. But it's also possible she doesn't believe a word she's saying, but she's hoping to convince the other scum to shoot me instead of her. She cannot possibly believe that, hated townie or not, people are going to lynch me.

The problem for her is that she needs one more person to lynch me. By voting me, they basically claim also-scum (since town's best bet for winning is lynching scum today, JK tonight). Which should basically assure that DGB and whoever votes me cross kill.

[zoraster]

SK with BP power, dram?

[zoraster]

DGB (or, hell, even on the off chance, dram), if you are actually town, i don't know what to say to you.

By the way, if for some reason there are two mafia members left rather than SK and Mafia, I think I won't be lynched. I got a PM a couple of days ago saying that because they didn't anticipate the hated townie being alive at lylo, they didn't mention it, but I won't be lynched in that case. presumably 3v2 is lylo.

My private question was what scenarios equal lylo, particularly 1v1v1 and 2v1v1. UT said 1v1v1 is lylo, 2v1v1 is not.

My public question was important because in 1v1v1, if both lose in that case, then town has a shot of winning. Given the particulars, if I knew that for a fact, I would claim the new information because no lynching made the most sense in that case (since the options for a no lynch were to end up either in 2v1 or 1v1v1 or in an unlikely circumstance 2v1v1 [where both scum shoot the same person] OR we'd win outright). So 1v1v1 leading to a possible town win makes that an okay thing to do. Otherwise, the initial plan was a better option. Given that the mods wouldn't answer straight, I decided to hold the cards to my chest.

[zoraster]

by the way, iec. Your dithering is partially at fault here too. The danger of the two scum getting together to lynch me was always a real possibility, but one I didn't bring up because I didn't want to put the idea in their head. Instead for some reason you held off in your position.

[zoraster]

All right. Let's think, assuming I'm about to get lynched. Tonight is 2v1v1. we have a JK. Mafia do not have a redirector. SK might have BP.

Should the JK use their power?

[zoraster]

gee. DGB once so loud is now quiet. What a surprise.

[zoraster]

Iec, I think you're best served by watching or double actioning someone (perhaps give two bullets to DGB that she can use both on dram, who may be BP scum but only blocks the first bullet? I dunno).

[zoraster]

i am claiming exactly what happened.

[zoraster]

1. dram sits in the corner. cannot tell you how changry this made me when i found out he wasn't scum.

2. If you cannot manage to post on the right account, you should not be in a hydra. i'm not sure what i would have done as the mod, but force replacement for fatewen would not have been amiss.

3. Good game DGB. Did you actually believe I was scum or were you playing the "DGB is always super nuts" card?

[zoraster]

i don't really get the hydra QT thing, by the way. Why should there be an advantage to being in a hydra beyond what is already given? a weird concept. not like game breaking but still really weird.

[zoraster]

btw. love the role PMs. highly entertaining.

[zoraster]

DGB had BP anyway, iec. best you could get would be a draw redirecting dgb at herself over and over and over.

[zoraster]

how would that have made it obvious? most obvious solution to his idiocy was that he was BP SK so hammering me made sense.

[zoraster]

3. Good game DGB. Did you actually believe I was scum or were you playing the "DGB is always super nuts" card?

As soon as my name came up as a possible lynch that last day, I lunged for the "easy" target;

the confirmed townie with a perfect scum-voting record

. I thought if I massaged the game enough, the other scum would hammer, or see that I would hammer, and let them put in the first vote.

When Iecerint said that dram had targeted Trollie (THE GUY *I* KILLED), I knew he was scum. When I saw that you were an Informed Townie enabler, I knew dramonic was 100% town and I was hoping that Iece wouldn't pick up on it, and shoot dramonic.

to be fair, I did once vote for JS. But yes, I see what you mean. Get the scum to go after me too. But you had what is easily one of the top 5 stupidest plays in mafia from dramonic.

[zoraster]

the staaaaalls.
reporter sucks

@Zor: you spent the first half of the day trying to lynch yourself, I feel no guilt.


EDIT: there was a good opportunity today, but staaaaaalling

are you kidding me? You should feel all the guilt in the world. THE GAME CHANGED FROM THEN AND WHEN YOU HAMMERED. But that's okay. You were either too apathetic or too dumb to realize it. Lynching me against my will was in all senses of the word the most idiotic thing you could do. This falls on you. This is the type of play that justifies policy lynching stupid people.

[zoraster]

did you end up using RGAM, reck?

[zoraster]

i wanted fate and nuwen modkilld/force replaced for other reasons. is that okay?

Being only SLIGHTLY hyperbolic after a bottle of wine

[zoraster]

i wanted fate and nuwen modkilld/force replaced for other reasons. is that okay?

Being only SLIGHTLY hyperbolic after a bottle of wine

Hey

If you have a problem, I have an inbox.

it's not really a personality problem at all, so I don't think this is a private matter. But the total disregard you two (especially fate i guess) had for the fact you were a HYDRA and not two people really bothered me. Even after you had been warned. And it's not like it was a MISTAKE either, Fate acknowledged he was posting on his personal account and basically said "fuck it." It was just inconvenient for you. Which sucks for the game. If you're going to be a hydra, be a hydra.

Fate had FORTY-ONE posts this game. This is just one of those posts:

I'm not switching back accounts to point out how that post proves everything I've been saying

Yesterday when you wanted me to be your little pawn you SAVED ME FROM TEH MASSES WYRDS SO TOWN I KNEW HE WAS TOWNIE

Now its USUCKFATEUNOTSOTOWNANYMOREEEEEEEEEEE

PRETTY

BLATANT

SCUMFUCKERY

[zoraster]

kuribo, i don't deny this is true, but does it need to be said during the game? does that really help anything?

[zoraster]

yes, it's a problem.

[zoraster]

I just didn't want to get into it, which is why I didn't explain further. But I feel like it's an issue. Part of the way the game works is slots have identities (even when hydras sign posts). Even when you can iso people, having three (in this case really 2, Nuwen only had 8 posts) people for the same slot at the same time is confusing and works contrary to the overall atmosphere of the game. And it's certainly less than ideal for trying to read through a large game with a lot of people because part of the way reading people works (at least for me) is an association between the name/avatar of a player and what they're posting in context (i.e. in the actual game, not in isos). So when you post repeatedly outside of that, it becomes harder to read the game.

I wasn't pissed that you occasionally posted on the wrong account. That's mildly annoying, but many people make that mistake when they play in a hydra. I was pissed that you basically said, "I don't care what the fuck you guys think. I get to do what I want" and then purposefully posted on your account because you couldn't be bothered to log into your hydra account that you had agreed to play on.

I don't think I would modkill/force replace immediately, no. That's why I said I was being hyperbolic. If I warned you as a mod and you continued to do it, then probably. I think when you take on a hydra, you do so in part as an agreement with the other players that you'll try to post as one account (even if you have separate identities). Your making life difficult just because you can seems pretty selfish to me.

The whole reasoning you offer falls flat. Why even bother have hydra accounts at all? Why not just let two or three people "team up" and post as one player slot but on different accounts in the first place? It's because we tend to value having one account to one player slot.

The avatar thing would be pretty annoying, yes. And an asshole move again. But at least when I sat down and read through the game it would be the same.

[zoraster]

the more I think about the ending of this game, the more I realize how much I enjoyed it and how I wish I hadn't given the impression I had anything other than a lot of fun.

[zoraster]

i didn't request that during the game, although I did request he do something about it. I didn't care about you being an asshole. Town or scum I'd expect nothing less from you depending on your objective.

[zoraster]

hahaha i wasn't angry at you at all! I was pretty angry at dramonic for being pretty dumb and/or lazy about thinking but you did wonderfully.