The Wire, Season 1 - Final Credits!

[Zdenek]

Hi, I'll get to it tonight.

[Zdenek]

Nost, what do you think of Shadoweh's 100?

[Zdenek]

The worst of the first eight pages is probably this, and if I was voting based on that, I'd be voting Absta.

Not liking this.
Are you voting him because of the RC or because "he's bubbles"?
Also, how do you know Bubbles is a role in this game?
Why would SAD-bubbles use an avatar of bubbles if he was with scum?

Doesn't like stuff, just asks questions, but there's no judgement.

[Zdenek]

Nost, what do you think of Shadoweh's 100?

I've answered that in #149.

has your opinion of Shadoweh changed since then?

[Zdenek]

Through 16 pages:

I'm starting to pick up some town reads, mostly based on gut/sense that their play similar to play when I've seen them as town before on Cerulean, Benmage, Deasvail, Vifam, Shadoweh (although I have more reservations about this one because of ADWD).

I'll need to look into Camn's case on Plessiezarus, but I didn't find it convincing as I was reading through.

I still don't like Absta, and the attention that Safetydance is getting is deserved.

[Zdenek]

sottyrulez - could you outline your case on TGAH? It seems to me that you're pushing it far harder than you should be considering what you've had to say so far.

[Zdenek]

Plessiezarus - you can answer that too.

[Zdenek]

camn, why are you voting me and why did you think that Plessiezarus was bussing?

[Zdenek]

Oh please. Town acts not bothered by things all the time, and assuming that isolated votes on people you find scummy are people bussing is insane.

[Zdenek]

Assuming you're town, here's an example:

/yawn at Absta.

[Zdenek]

Unvote

I get the case that some people are pushing on SafetyDance, but there's enough in his ISO that reads as genuine that I wouldn't bet on him being scum.

[Zdenek]

basically because I don't understand why McStab found Nostredeus' vote of Shadoweh suspicious, since he had been voting Shadoweh himself.

Which post are you referring to here?

[Zdenek]

and Pless, why do you have a town read on SottyRulez?

[Zdenek]

Vote: Camn

Votes me for null reasons and doesn't comment when I point that out.

[Zdenek]

So, let's see:

Petapan/ActionDan is probably scum because of Petapan. His attempt to write off his comment about not knowing what he was doing as joke while still saying that he lacked confidence in his reads doesn't seem like a legitimate point. I also find his attack on SafetyDance to be convenient and thoughtless. That said, I still have my own concerns about SafetyDance.

Camn is probably scum for push garbage. She did it earlier with Plessiezarus and now with my slot.

Jason could easily be scum here. I don't read his way to blow my gambit post as genuine, his attack on SAD for overcompensating sucks, and I his unvote of SAD while still calling him scum makes no sense.

I had concerns about Absta earlier, but I like his current push on Camn.

Sotttyrulez case on TGAH is pretty weak considering how hard they are pushing it, but if they're that convinced by their meta-read of rofl, that could be meaningless. One concerning things is that outside of 452 they haven't mentioned too many people.

TGAH - So, yeah their rationale for their town read on SAD sucked, but I think that their suspicions are reasonable.

SAD - someone made a pretty good point about him usually saying that every post that someone makes goes into determining if they are scummy or not, and that in this game he criticized someone for doing that to him, so that's a concern. I also don't grasp the reasoning for their Plessiezarus vote. On the other hand I've mostly liked the things that he's choosing to be concerned with.

[Zdenek]

1) Your pointing that out wasn't particularly convincing. (hint: there's a difference between acting nonchalant about a vote yet explaining why the person is wrong and just acting nonchalant about the vote) 2) even if you're right, why does this make camn scum?

She's voting McStab for doing something that she's done twice. The other one is her Ooooh, Big Man post, where she doesn't explain anything. It's scummy, first of all, because using bs cases to try push a lynch is scummy, and secondly, because of the cognitive dissonance involved in voting someone for something that you do yourself. Now, okay, people have different takes on things, and that's fine, but she doesn't even comment when I point out that she's done exactly the thing that she's voting me for, which is something that I don't see coming from town who's trying to get me lynched.

[Zdenek]

I feel I haven't really been very involved or proactive in getting my reads sorted this game and I apologise for that. Over the next few days, I'll put more effort into reading people, but my reads as they stand are pretty likely close to what they'll actually end up being.

If you haven't been proactive in getting your reads sorted, why do you think that they probably won't change when you do try to sort them?

[Zdenek]

So why do you think that McStab is scum?

[Zdenek]

Um. Why did you ask this question? (I mean, DV has talked about his scum-read on McStab more than he has talked about most of his reads.)

Well, he just said that his scum read on McStab solidified, and I like him to explain that. I also don't think that his reasons so far for voting McStab are alignment relevant, so more explanation is needed.

So far DV's attack on my slot seems to be based on McStab talking about who might be scum if Nost flips scum, which while maybe premature, is something that anyone can do, and it's really reaching to say that he was doing that to try to make his read seem more genuine. DV also attacks McStab for thinking that Nost is scum despite the fact that others have a town-read on him, this sort of stubbornness is at worst null, then he attacks Nost for being stubborn with his scum read but being willing to move his vote, which is another thing that's not scummy, and there's town motivation to cooperate with others despite having different reads on certain players, in order to get something positive done, even though it might not be ones first choice.

[Zdenek]

sorry he then attacks McStab for being stubborn with his scum read on Nost

[Zdenek]

Jason could easily be scum here. I don't read his way to blow my gambit post as genuine, his attack on SAD for overcompensating sucks, and I his unvote of SAD while still calling him scum makes no sense.

What part of my unvote while still saying he is scum makes no sense, I believe him as scum, but it was a wagon that was not going to take off, at least not today and therefore was a wasted vote.

Also, blow your gambit post? what one are you talking about, I don't rememeber you pulling a gambit.

So you didn't want to vote someone who you thought was scum because that wagon wasn't going to take-off, but thought that your vote would be more useful elsewhere?

It was your post where you said something like "way to blow my gambit."

[Zdenek]

sorry, thought your vote would be more useful on no one.

[Zdenek]

if you had bothered to read anything I have said, you would have seen I had said I am slightly behind on reading and not fully caught up.. whats the point in putting down a vote when not fully caught up to all the facts?

You said that you unvoted because you couldn't push the lynch through.

Personally I just think you are trying to deflect attention back to me over the gambit etc so as to take away from people looking at you.

By suggesting that you could be scum in a post where I talk about a bunch of people and while I'm not even voting you - that suggestion is LOLZY.

This reaction to me when you've said before that you think that my slot is 100% going to flip town is ridiculous.

Unvote
Vote: Jason

[Zdenek]

You said that you unvoted because you couldn't push the lynch through.

yes exactly, that IS why I unvoted... you are now talking about why I don't have a vote down, I had not caught up (still not fully) to put down a vote.... what you quoted was WHY I HAD NOT GOT A VOTE NOW... NOT WHY I UNVOTED. See the difference?

I see the difference, and I still don't understand why would would have unvoted in the first place. That bothers me, but you're scum for this reaction to those comments. Specifically for this attack on me, who you thought was 100% town, over expressing suspicion of you and that I would have only mentioned you because it would be an easy wagon (which is false, by the way, since you've got Sottyrulez defending you).

[Zdenek]

He's welcome to voice suspicion of me, but what he's doing is attributing scum motives to me being suspicious of him, which is something that is not inherently scummy, so the only reason he would do it is if he thought I was scum in the first place.

[Zdenek]

That defense is so over the top, it's unbelievable. You're going to pick me saying 100% rather than nearly 100% as something to push as scummy? What to do think of Plesszarus completely misrepresenting McStab in their case on him?

[Zdenek]

Thaat was to sottyrulez.

[Zdenek]

To me, the difference is ACTING nonchalant, when in reality you are worried, because scum are generally more hypersensitive to heat.. and BEING nonchalant, because there is no actual heat.

Why do you think that McStab was under actual heat at the time?

[Zdenek]

We didn't do this. Zar misreading one post is obviously not the bulk of our "case" against McStab.

I did not say that the whole case was a misrep, but if Sottyrulez thinks that it's scummy for me to say 100% rather than nearly 100%, but doesn't care about that, then something is wrong.

On a side note, the reason why I checked that point was that it was one of the few things in your case that I thought was objectively scummy.

Where's the misrep?

basically because I don't understand why McStab found Nostredeus' vote of Shadoweh suspicious, since he had been voting Shadoweh himself.

Hmm. Looks like Zar is misreading things a bit here. McStab votes Shadoweh in 93, and later, in 164 attacks Nost for being talked out of his idea by Shadoweh, his scum-read. But McStab doesn't actually say the Shadoweh vote is suspicious in itself - looks like Zar missed the point a bit

[Zdenek]

#688 is a really awful post. Most of it just regurgitating what other people have already said and the rest is just hedging nonsense.

What part is nonsense?

[Zdenek]

What part is nonsense?

For example, the petapan/SafetyDance stuff. Nowhere in your ISO do you go into what your concerns with SD are, so that whole "petapan is scummy for [insert Benmage's reasons here] but so is SD for [undisclosed reasons]" just reads like you're using it as an excuse to push one wagon but shift to the other if the opportunity arises.

People have been over and over the issues with SafetyDance, and I didn't see the need to repeat them. I thought they were pretty clear - him spending so much time justifying his vote on a null read rather than voting someone who he thinks is scummy spring to mind immediately - I can go back to find other things too. I think that these are legit reasons to be suspicious of SD. On the other hand, my general feeling about SafetyDance is that he's probably not scum, this is mostly gut, posts like the one where he was frustrated with Absta read as genuine, so I think there's a good chance that he's town.

So I have mixed feelings about how to view the people pushing his wagon. On the one hand, I don't think that they are just inventing reasons to be suspicious of him, but I also don't think they're attacking someone who's scum, and on top of that, I am sure that SafetyDance, if town, would be an easy place for scum to place a vote.

[Zdenek]

People have been over and over the issues with SafetyDance, and I didn't see the need to repeat them

but yet you were happy to re-bring up issues about me we had been over and over and happy to repeat them.

Yep. I think it's more important to justify why I think that someone is scum, than why I think that someone who I think is probably town could be scum.

[Zdenek]

Cerulean, what do you think of Jason who says that he has a town read on my slot accusing me of try to deflect attention back on to him by mentioning him in the middle of a post where I talk about a bunch of people?

[Zdenek]

Why?

[Zdenek]

Do you want me to claim?

[Zdenek]

Which people did you not like my reactions to?

[Zdenek]

I'm not sure what you're asking and I don't think that my use of caps has changed.

[Zdenek]

The deadline is coming and it's better if we don't have a rush lynch.

I'm a town friendly neighbor. My character is Sterling. McStab soft claimed it in 53 - Sterling got shot protecting the location of the stash house.

[Zdenek]

Well the location of the stash in the house, I guess.

[Zdenek]

Yes, the character.

[Zdenek]

I'm a friendly neighbor: at night I visit people and tell them who I am. It's a confirmable town role.

[Zdenek]

I tell them I am Sterling and aligned with the Barksdale Organization.

[Zdenek]

You're wrong.

I won't vote for TGAH. I'm willing to vote for ActionDan.

[Zdenek]

The flavour is that I got shot in the leg and I survived. People can tell that I am Sterling because I got shot and have a limp now.

[Zdenek]

Dan, I don't get QT with my targets.

[Zdenek]

Question about your role. Can you only confirm yourself once? Because Jason is right that you could easily have a scum buddy confirm you. You could also just as easily go damn I sent my confirmation to the guy who just died. I'd like some flavor please. I'm also a bit eh about how you claimed. In GvE when you were gaining votes, you didn't ask if people wanted you to claim, you rather spontaneously claimed. That natural reaction to seeing the wagon on you was one if the things that helped me realize I was wrong about you. I'm not feeling that natural reaction here.

Flavor is above.

I can target someone each night.

[Zdenek]

I'm not sure how likely it is that both roles exist in the game though...

Scum posting - trying to cast doubt on the possibility without taking a stance.

If you think it's unlikely, say why.

[Zdenek]

I'm not sure how likely it is that both roles exist in the game though...

Scum posting - trying to cast doubt on the possibility without taking a stance.

If you think it's unlikely, say why.

So ummm, do you believe Dan's claim?

I believe that he's a neighborizer, but I don't think that it's relevant to his alignment.

Now, do you think that it's unlikely that both roles are in the game?

[Zdenek]

Neighborizer and Friendly Neighbour are completely different.

[Zdenek]

Why?

[Zdenek]

Why?

If I had a particularly compelling reason that didn't require having more information, I'd be on one of your wagons today.

It's just a feeling, that I'm doubting I can substantiate with any fact.

I can't tell what this is supposed to mean. If you had a compelling reason, you'd be on one of our wagons today. Okay, but isn't that always true of basically any player?

Then there's the fact that you said before that you're more inclined to believe ActionDan. How you can think that it makes any sense to lynch someone with a confirmable town role on day one is completely beyond me.

[Zdenek]

SottyRulez' use of circular reasoning to attempt to justify there suggestion that they don't think that there's both a neighborizer and Friendly neighbor as town in this game is surprising.

ActionDan, I could go either way on, but I want to see the name of his QT first.

If you had almost the same role as someone who claimed, wouldn't you be going for 'swift blood' instead of considering it carefully? That's a really bad reason to make him sound suspicious.

but the roles are different.

I don't know about the TGAH wagon or the case on them, but roflcopter's posted onsite since they've been at L-1, and their failure to claim here is a problem for me.

[Zdenek]

I'll talk about that after Absta gets to a computer.

[Zdenek]

I targeted Benmage.

[Zdenek]

2-shot Modified Rolecop and traitor to the PO-lice

Open question, which is needed for association tells-
Does this mean TGAH was, role-wise, a 'TRAITOR", as in he was unknown to the rest of the police? Or did they all know he was with them?

Theme wise I think the former.... but I am not a good one for setups.

I've seen both sorts of traitors. Flavor says that Bubbles is more likely to be unaware of the others than not, but that sort of argument has pretty limited use.

[Zdenek]

Vote: CDB

I don't have anything to add to what's been said.

I could also go with Kuribo/ActionDan today - the whining and replacing out gives him a decent chance of being scum.

[Zdenek]

Still here. Will post.

[Zdenek]

I'm leaning towards thinking that the Police were aware who the traitor was rather than the other way around because Absta had almost nothing to say about TGAH, and kind of think that if he didn't know that he was a (potential) buddy that he'd have been more inclined to attack him.

[Zdenek]

Hi. Don't prod me.

I've been rereading, trying to find something reasonable to talk about. I still think that CDB is probably scum, and I don't really understand why sottyrulez is trying to clear themselves based on the words of a traitor. Will try ti have something better soon.

[Zdenek]

Pless - how many of these people do you think are town?

kuribo
Kise
JasonT1981
ChannelDelibird

[Zdenek]

There's a post where Absta said that he had a town read on Petapan. I know that it's wifomy, but I think he's probably gunning for town-cred on peta's, now Kuribo's, flip rather than trying to protect a buddy there.

[Zdenek]

SAD if you could flip four people right now, who would they be?

[Zdenek]

Well, we're both confident on Jason being town at this point.

Is this only because of interactions with TGAH?

[Zdenek]

There's a post where Absta said that he had a town read on Petapan. I know that it's wifomy, but I think he's probably gunning for town-cred on peta's, now Kuribo's, flip rather than trying to protect a buddy there.

Absta's interactions:

Peta's slot is slowly leaning scum b/c 288.

[snip]

Absta apparently changed his stance about peta in 432 to "town" from previously "prob scum" in 288, with no coherent transition.

He then changed his stance AGAIN on peta in 437, with no coherent flow of logic

Yeah, okay, but this still looks more to me in retrospect like he's opportunistically changing reads. I think that if he was going to either bus or defend a buddy he'd be more deliberate than that.

[Zdenek]

SAD, why do you want to flip Camn?

[Zdenek]

If you think TGAH didn't know who the Police were, what do you read into his push on Jason?

Well, if that's the case, then nothing.

I really hate the traitor role because it's non-standard, so it's difficult to draw any conclusions about what's going on from how they're playing. However, I've decided that it's probably the case that traitor knew his team-mates and not the other way around.

[Zdenek]

What would you like to talk about?

[Zdenek]

still somewhat on sotty

Why did you think that Sotty was scum here?

[Zdenek]

from the post you quoted:

sotty, even though I may have derped on one of my reasons earlier, I still get an uneasy feeling about him. Either sotty or jason feels like likely scum to me.

Yeah, I read that. Why the uneasy feeling?

[Zdenek]

Yeah, I read that. Why the uneasy feeling?

My suspicion on CDB is mostly gut and the fact that over the last five years, I've played a couple games with him. This just feels wrong. Add to that, his earlier questioning of "Those that say I just seem off are gonna have to do better," and now his admission that he's not really scumhunting? Kinda shows cognitive dissonance. But mainly, I want to know why he's been constantly nudging jason toward a lynch. And if he's explained already, I apologize, but I don't recall.

CDB: Congratulations, you're a 3-shot Dayvig. You may only use those shots in your next post. Who would you shoot dead, right now, and why?

I was asking about Sottyrulez.

[Zdenek]

I'm pretty sure that this scum-ganging-up-together-to get-someone-lynched connection that CDB is pushing between Absta and BT is BS. I mean of course I've seen scum do it, just as I've seen scum stay off the same wagons, and I don't think there's anything all that telling about it. The point about BT not mentioning Camn after yesterday is better.

[Zdenek]

Well, that said CDB looks like he really believes this argument, and by 1535 I can follow his reasoning pretty well, even if I don't agree with all of it.

Unvote

[Zdenek]

Jason, do you only think that Ben is scum because you think his fight with Kuribo is scum v. scum? What makes you think this?

[Zdenek]

Is this just because the word "with" is ambiguous or do you have some other point?

[Zdenek]

Kuribo, same question to you: is this just about the ambiguity of the word "with" or is there something else going on?

[Zdenek]

Vote:: SAD

[Zdenek]

This your almost confirmed townie popping in to say that he is absolutely opposed to lynching an un-cc'd doc today.

I would happy to vote Sottyrulez though because their reactions to my claim and Kise claim have been poor, but probably we should wait on that to see what actually comes of Kise's claim.

I wish I had some other wicked suspect to give you, but alas.

[Zdenek]

I kind of think that the Kise lynch should be on after those posts, since they make it seem like he's full of shit.

Also why the hell is he an expensive doctor, if the mod's going to make up a role for him, why not just call him a lawyer or an expensive lawyer. Admittedly that sort of reasoning doesn't usually help.

[Zdenek]

After the Archangel shot, I'm not buying any vig claim. That's the work of an SK trying to setup a vig claim.

[Zdenek]

Where are you reading that?

[Zdenek]

Are you planning to actually contribute today, Zdenek? It would be nice.

I'm planning to, but I'm not going to post for the sake of posting. If I find something solid, I'll post it.

[Zdenek]

OK.. That puts the final scum (unknown number) in the following pool, in my thinking:
[Jason, BT, ChannelDeliBird, Kise]
I think the Vig/SK is probably in that pool as well, but meh. I havnt really thought about that.

The vig is in your scum list?
Do you think the other killer is a vig?

[Zdenek]

VOTE: Baby Spice

pfft please, Sporty Spice was the hottest.

Vote Jason

I think I'm legally obliged to defend the honour of the cutest of the Spice Girls.

This could have been her breadcrumbing her role.

[Zdenek]

@zd- I use the term loosely. At this point there is no way to distinguish a vig from a SK, other than florid speculation.

So the vig who you should probably read as town based on day play is in your scum group?

[Zdenek]

prod dodging.

[Zdenek]

Plessie, how hard does scum-Absta tend to push mislynches?

[Zdenek]

Plessiezarus, I looked through Absta's games, and one thing that gave me pause was that in Newbie 1290 Thor bussed Absta (not like Absta attacked Camn here though) and then went on to win the game. Absta could have been attempting to mimic that in this game, and it would have been a pretty safe move because Camn wasn't all that likely to be lynched.

I agree though that Absta's treatment of Camn is pretty close to his treatment of Starbuck in Open 432, so Camn is probably town.

[Zdenek]

Don't prod me.

I'm actually reading.

[Zdenek]

DV do you remember why you voted CDB way back in the game?

[Zdenek]

I reread the first 20 pages. I'm worried that some of this really just paranoia or craziness, but let's talk about it anyway. Once I get through everything, I'll to sort some stuff out, but I figured that I may as well share as I go.

CDB:

Jason votes SAD for overcompensating, CDB asks him if his vote is serious, CDB later explains that his vote on Absta was serious because he saw Absta's petapan vote as possibly scum motivated.

This interaction makes me a bit worried about CDB, he asks Jason if his vote is serious, Jason's post makes it clear that his vote has reasons behind it, so the only obvious motivation for CDB to ask if the vote is serious, is if he's questioning if that is possible so early in the game, but that doesn't make any sense since his vote on Absta was apparently serious.

In 70 CDB further explains his rationale behind his Absta vote - basically that scum try to find jokey reasons to vote people off the bat. The trouble with his analysis is that I think despite sounding reasonable, in practice it's probably irrelevant to player's alignments. Looking back at KGB mafia (a horribly embarrassing experience) where I played with CDB and was town, he voted me for a pretty similar reason, which kind of makes me feel a bit better about him. At least he's using reasoning that's consistent with an older version of his town self.

TGAH questions DV's vote on CDB? If TGAH know CDB is scum, I think they'd be more inclined to not draw attention to a buddy by getting some to explain their reads.

After DV voted for McStab, CDB said that DV looks like scum, which is something that I don't understand.

CDB says that McStab has deviated from what he expected. He doesn't make an accusation at this point, but he's adding heat to the wagon. There's also no comparison with McStab's play as scum or with another town game, so have a hard time seeing CDB as actually thinking that this point was legit.

Jason:

Thinking about the sottyrulez kill kind of makes me think that Jason is town because they seemed fairly likely to protect him, and I have a hard time seeing scum-Jason wanting to kill that. Looking back, it seems like their town read on hoim was wavering, but if they were suspicious, it wasn't severe.

Camn:

I'd probably be a much happier person if I could shake my Camn suspicion, but it's not going anywhere. Her comment at the top of page 3, saying that she doesn't see how that gambit/black people/white people discussion is useful is a bit odd, since Jason makes it clear on the previous page exactly how it is useful.

Here is an exchange involving Camn that has bothered me for a while. In 62 she mentions the possibility of mass-name-claiming. Vifam and Benmage say that scum probably have fake-claims. Then in 84, camn posts Jason's 51 where he's discussing his gambit, and Vifams 63, where he says that scum probably have fake-claims. Vfam's post was in response to her asking about a mass-claim, so comment of, "exactly", following quoting these two posts, seems really weird.

Camn votes Plessiezarus for being scum hiding in drivel. This reasonable. The QT business is a bit strange but that's probably irrelevant.

Camn in 274, I don't think that Plessiezarus was attacking her.

Cerulean:

Cerulean's attack of Shadow for voing benmage in 99 is a bit off. They describe exactly why one might find benmage scummy, but dislike Shadoweh's vote on him. I suppose their point is that Shadoweh was attacking him for the wrong reasons.

Cerulean's suspicion of Camn makes me feel a bit better about them. Other things on page 5 make me think that Cerulean is legitimately scum-hunting.

Cerulean thinks that Benmage is town, which makes sense at this moment considering Benmage's attempt to read Vifam.

Cerulean's about why anyone town reads McStab was oddly timed. It was just after a post by McStab, and they could have commented on that, but didn't, and there weren't many people stating town reads on McStab at the time.

Benmage's 415 and his unwillingness to lynch Absta irks me. The Benmage that I am used to would have been totally down with lynching Absta, possibly even if he had a town read on him, but here make excuses for him.

Baby Spice/Kise:

Baby Spice's take on Vifam seems legit considering the events around Jason's Gambit.

Baby Spice's lack of activity at this point worries me.

I'm not sure where Baby Spice is getting her meta on Vifam from, but this comment about him not spamming as town doesn't make any sense.

Plessiezarus:

I took Plessiezarus a very long time to get into the game. Post 254 is the first thing that starts to make me feel okay about Plessiezarus. From here they look increasingly town.

Vifam/BT:

Vifam votes Nost for wagonning. Actually coming from Vifam this seems a little weird, but then again, I feel the same way about Nost's vote.

TGAH votes Nost for not-Vifaming. I would be rather surprised if they said this about Vifam if they were buddies. It's seems more like the type of thing they would say to buddy with town. I'm really unsure of how good of a not-buddy tell this is.

Benmage:

TGAH attacks benmage and SafetyDance for suspecting SAD. This makes me feel a bit better about benmage.

But then Benmage votes for Plessiezarus while pointing out how Absta is scummy. This could easily point to Benmage and Absta being buddies.

Then on page 7, Benmage is reading Cerulean as town, which I understand.

Benmage appears to be actually trying to read vifam by asking him for meta and looking through it.

Page 12, I like how Benmage is reading Baby Spice.

Page 13, Benmage seems to notice that Absta is full of shit, and sort of calls him out on it, but doesn't really follow through.

Page 14, Benmage make a reads list and has petapan as scum for his comment about not knowing what he was doing. His null read on Baby Spice makes me wonder if he forgot he was feeling better about her. He also seemed to have a town read on Vifam after Vifam provided him with some meta, but Vifam is listed as null. On the one hand, I think these reads make sense, but on the other, I'm not sure that they are supported by Benmage's ISO.

On page 15, I'm having a hard time understanding Benmage vote on Jason, but then Benmage goes back to Peta after Jason points out that Peta voted Jason. On the one hand, this seems quite natural but why Benmage voted Jason in the first place is beyond me.

DeasVail:

DV votes McStab and explains himself. Despite the fact that he is wrong, it's a proactive move.

DV admitting that he's forcing his scum read seems townish, but at the same time the fact that he says that he's forcing stuff seems like a bit of a cop out.


DV's 320 bothers me. He avoids commenting on Absta who has posted just above him by saying that he's only up to the previous page. His comment about thinking that camn seems more relaxed than he'd expect if she was scum, because she hasn't played in a long time doesn't read as genuine.

The Mini-Librarian

197 - third party hunting, casting suspicion in a bunch of places.

I think that it's worth remember tht=at Mini-Lib pushed for an Absta lynch over a safetydance lynch.

Petapan

He explains very little early on, whoch makes him hard to get a read on. On page 9 Petapan defends vifam, and I think that he's probably right.

Peta pushes for safetydance lynch over an Absta lynch.

[Zdenek]

2- Actiondan/kuribo is town

This seems like an odd assumption considering that you had a scum read on him before.

[Zdenek]

So, I've made it to page 54 in my read through. I hope to finish mid-next-week but who knows.

I don't have as much stuff to talk about this time, but there are few points. I'm sure that some of them have been raised before.

First of all, there is mounting evidence that Plessiezarus is not Absta aligned. There's Absta's 514 for instance and there are some other posts that SAD pointed out.

Secondly, Shadoweh had Absta as town until death, which mean that if Jason is scum twice his group killed off someone fairly likely to protect him (although, ok, SottyRulez read was wavering, but they weren't reading Jason as scum, and if they were, they would have made it clear).

BT's 559 - I'm not sure that scum-BT calls a vote on a buddy wasted. He'd be more likely to think that the vote was legit.

There are a couple of points about ActionDan that are worth revisiting. The post where he comments that he freaked out when he saw his name in red, when he'd been following the game seems contrived. I also think that scum are more likely to get frustrated and replace out than town. On the other hand, the way that ActionDan counter-claimed me seems quite townie.

DV's defense of CDB reads as quite townie.

A point about TML. At the start of Day 2 he voted SAD. It was essentially out of the blue, and I suppose was shipping Plessiezarus' reasoning. When Kuribo replaced in he gave a reason to think that SAD was town - that SAD calling the setup was too bold to come from him as scum - and TML unvoted promptly. Coupling this with a couple of other things from TML - the Petapan scum hunting, the desire to lynch Absta and at the moment, I'm not really sold on this lynch. I'll have to see what I think by the time I get to the end of the thread though, and see what Equinox does.

Finally, there's Cerulean. Their behavior at the start of Day 2 bothers me. At the end of Day 1, they said that they found Action Dan townie for how he claimed. At the start of Day 2, they were calling Action Dan one of their top suspects. They were also arguing that Action Dan should have been open about who he neihborized because he was saved from a lynch by his claim. Now, Action Dan was under some pressure at the time, but he wasn't at L-1 when he claimed, and it was far from clear that he would have been run up to claim otherwise because there were a lot of people who were suspicious of TGAH. So this line of questioning of Action Dan by Cerulean reads as disingenuous.

.S.: You guys really need to consider Jason as well, especially given the sottyrulez kill).

Why do you think this?

Can you also explain your scum read on Nost, and why you had Benmage on the list of people you've narrowed it down to when he's been a town read of yours all game?

[Zdenek]

Are you really asking why we're reassessing our reads?

Not why, but how.

[Zdenek]

Are you really asking why we're reassessing our reads?

Not why, but how.

I don't think I understand the question if you're still asking how as I think I answered the how in my last post.

I'm not still asking. You just seemed so incredulous that I'd even have asked you about this.

[Zdenek]

Don't see this as any kind of town tell. Why wouldn't scum-BT want to discredit votes on his partners wagon? Especially a tracker?

It seems like a high risk, low reward move for scum at that moment. TML wasn't voting for absta then, and wasn't being pushed.

What do you think of Benmage's unwillingness to vote for Absta?

[Zdenek]

Well the specific post is this one 415, but in general, he says very little about Absta, and doesn't vote him. In my past experience with Benmage he'd probably be willing to vote for someone like Absta, even if he was reading him as town, so the fact that never happened bothers me.

[Zdenek]

Holy shit Pless is conf town.

Shouldn't that be Kuribo?

Not that I really think this is going to be a fruitful line of inquiry, but that seems like the correct inference to draw.

Don't see this as any kind of town tell. Why wouldn't scum-BT want to discredit votes on his partners wagon? Especially a tracker?

It seems like a high risk, low reward move for scum at that moment. TML wasn't voting for absta then, and wasn't being pushed.

What do you think of Benmage's unwillingness to vote for Absta?

Where was I unwilling to vote abstas? I don't even recall an abstas wagon happening...

I'm thinking of your post 415, but also the fact that you never voted him, and the fact that he's the sort of player who I think you would have been fine with lynching even if you had a town read on him.

I've been pretty sure that Camn is full of shit all game, so I can't help but be sympathetic to CDB at the moment.

[Zdenek]

Camn, what is your current read on Kuribo?

[Zdenek]

Town.

And WAY more pro-town town today.

Why the change?

[Zdenek]

BT when you're scum are you the sort of player who pays attention to what his buddies are doing?

[Zdenek]

Because I was shitty yesterday.
Trying to rectify that by doing more than essentially turning Plessiezarus into a double voter.

[Zdenek]

Bt is looking townier lately, but after he kept talking about how suspicious Sotty was, I'm a bit surprised he didn't mention it at all.

You expected an "oops, I was wrong" comment?
Those are pretty irrelevant.

If anything it looks kind of consistent with him not saying anything about his Camn read at the start of Day 2.

[Zdenek]

The only two he completely ignored were CDB and Kise. Willing to drop both of them as candidates for Police for now.

I disagree with this decision. You've just finished saying that you think Absta was genuinely having a hard time with the game, and both of these were slots that were somewhat inactive at times (Baby Spice more so), so it's quite possible that he simply didn't interact with them because they weren't posting.

[Zdenek]

There's another issue with Benmage that's probably worth pointing out. Earlier, he's voting Kuribo and thinks that he's scum, Kuribo self-votes and Benmage immediately unvotes saying that he's never seen scum do that. This reads more like a textbook response to an event than to something that he actually thought about as town. Benmage has played with Kuribo before, and I think that he'd have realized that Kuribo would self-vote as scum (personally, I think that there is little that I would put beyond Kuribo-scum). Moreover, Benmage has been in a game where he's seen scum day-vig another scum, so his lack of suspicion here is disconcerting.

[Zdenek]

I've narrowed down the list of people who aren't currently town reads to Benmage, camn, Cerulean, DeasVail, and Nostredeus.

How did you come up with this list? What had you read?

[Zdenek]

I've narrowed down the list of people who aren't currently town reads to Benmage, camn, Cerulean, DeasVail, and Nostredeus.

How did you come up with this list? What had you read?

Nevermind. I see you've answered that.

[Zdenek]

So I've tried to look at who TML's/Equinox's buddy could be if he is scum.

I don't think that Plessiezarus, Nost or BT are bussing.

I don't think that DeasVail would have the nerve to openly say that he doesn't want to derail his buddies wagon.

I don't think that TML was bussing Petapan (he'd have been bussing both Absta and Petapan on day one).
I don't think that TML was bussing CDB on Day 2 after losing a buddy and a traitor.
I doubt TML was bussing Kise today.

Leaving us with:
Benmage
Cerulean
camn
Jason

I don't think that Cerulean is scum.
Camn and Jason are unlikely to be scum because of Absta interactions.

So that leaves Benmage who a lot of people seem fairly confident is town.

[Zdenek]

The thing is that it is such an obviously buddy stance to take that I don't think he draws attention to the fact that he's taking it, when he could have just voted you.

[Zdenek]

I'm pretty sure that Nost is the correct lynch.

[Zdenek]

Yeah, but you never bothered to post anything that gives any hint that you seem to care about actually having an accurate read on camn at all. In a town mindset, it would be worth noting the flip at the very least makes her much less likely scum. (Or maybe you still had some reservations that it was a cross bus.) Something,

anything

that would indicate a genuine thought process.

Yes, it would have been better had I mentioned it, but I forgot, that much is obvious. It doesn't mean the thought process didn't exist. The point I'm making is that, while I have forgotten, it really doesn't point to scum, definitely not as much as you/CDB are saying it is. (in your case, enough to rank me above nost, who you have said plenty about)

Oh, and this just SCREAMS scum caught for the wrong reasons.

[Zdenek]

Vote: BT

Can we auto-lynch Nost tomorrow regardless of BT's flip?

[Zdenek]

So, just a quicky (still working) if BT flips town what does that mean for your super solid 'auto-lynch' read on me?

It's irrelevant.

[Zdenek]

That is what I meant by auto-lynch regardless of BT's flip.

[Zdenek]

You're even scummy at math. Nostresignerrordeus.

[Zdenek]

Kuribo obviously isn't one for order of operations, but no surprises there.

[Zdenek]

After looking at who could be tml's or equinox's buddy I checked some other people. Assuming that scum is unlikely to bus aggressively, which is likely from day two on following the bad day one for them, if Nost isn't scum, then there is very likely scum in most people's *very likely town list*. So Nost is probably scum, and if he flips town, we learn something from his lynch.

[Zdenek]

That's not how minus signs work.

If you two are both town, I'd have to think about it, but I'd put TML on the table for sure.

[Zdenek]

That's good enough for me, scum have lost enough people for town to lose a couple on the way to Equinox/TML dying; I'd rather it wasn't that way and I'll keep opposing it but if it must go down like that then fine. CDB will be alive at that point and he can make sure town actually stay on course this time.

Thanks for letting us know that there's only two scum left.

[Zdenek]

It's more about whether Absta was bussing than whether she was bussing.

[Zdenek]

The thing is that Benmage makes for a way more likely buddy of Equinox than Nost. He says little about him, but does defend him from Nost.

-TML hasn't really had any negative contribution. His posting albeit low, is pretty good (I don't think he's ever very prolific?). Looks like genuine reading/questioning, and he does give reads which is something you need to be more wary of if someone's coasting(That is coasting and not giving reads). Think you're jumping the gun a little early with the lack of questioning on his spot. Tis D1.

If Equinox flipped scum, I'd be hard pressed to lynch anyone else.

[Zdenek]

I'd love to lynch Nostredeus, but the only other person who happens to think the same way about how vaguely skeevy (or skeevily vague, or maybe both) he's been -- you

Really? Sometimes I feel like I've forgotten how to read.

[Zdenek]

AngryPidigeon replace into a scumslot in ADWD

A Dance With Dragons? Do you mean a different game or a different person, because he wasn't in that one (unless there were two adwd games).

So anyways this wasn't some automated response... just how I handle selfvotes.

You realize that the two are indistinguishable right?

The dayvig thing? How is that relevant? Scum do anything to win? Okay sure, doesn't mean we throw OcsRzr out the window and pretend there's a cult in this game too. Anyways, glad you got the mod confirmed role

No Ben, but does it really surprise you that Kuribo would self-vote as scum?

Could easily be the people you don't think are bussing TML too.

Could be, but if there are only two scum left, and we've got an SK, I'm pretty sure most scum would be reluctant to bus.

[Zdenek]

Unvote

Only voting to hammer at the deadline.
I'll be around.
I'd rather force a non-confirmed person to act.

[Zdenek]

Dear SK, if you are still planning on pretending to be a vig, if we get a town flip today, fucking shoot the other leading wagon.