/in-vitational 12: Mafia in #YOLOville - All wrapped up!

[Wickedestjr]

Vote: penguin

[Wickedestjr]

Unvote. Vote: Shadoweh

-Scum vibes from her first post, in particular the town voting block idea and the comment(s) that accompanied her penguin vote
-Post 50 seems unhelpful/pointless
(I can go into more detail later)

Benmage, why is CES scum?


Today and the next two days are all pretty busy for me, but I'll try to post as much as I can.

[Wickedestjr]

*avoids prod*

I'm still incredibly busy- this week has been terrible. However, I'm only a page or two behind and I should have plenty of time on my hands tomorrow night. Expect a post then.

[Wickedestjr]

I think we should lynch CTD. Him asking for a massclaim is pretty scummy, especially considering how I've seen him play before.

What meta information are you basing this on? And why do you find suggesting masclaim to be scummy?

At the time of this post, did you find it suspicious that DeasVail voted for you?

@Empire- you said that you found DeasVail's vote for CTD to be suspicious because it seemed lazy and opportunistic. If DeasVail was scum trying to be lazy and opportunistic, then why did you think he would vote for CTD rather than penguin? I'm especially curious considering penguin had received several votes and none of the votes for penguin in RVS were justified.

Benmage, why is CES scum?

He's probably not.

Okay, well why did you say he was, then?

Unvote. Vote: Shadoweh

-Scum vibes from her first post, in particular the town voting block idea and the comment(s) that accompanied her penguin vote
-Post 50 seems unhelpful/pointless

(I can go into more detail later)

Please do.

-The comment(s) that accompanied her penguin vote struck me as unusually confident (even if it was not serious). I'm not entirely sure why the town voting block idea felt scummy to me. Perhaps it relates to the fact that the suggestion makes the assumption that the other players mentioned are all town or at least demonstrates a lack of interest in determining their allignments (even if it was not serious).
-a.) She calls you obvtown but in the same post she gives herself room to change her mind. Note also that she wasn't even asked to give her read of you- I have no clue why she talked about you in post 50.
b.) IIRC, she asks CTD to reconsider his suspicion of her because Empire, the player CTD had voted, had nullread her. I don't see why that's a reason for CTD to reconsider. I also got the impression that Shadoweh is trying to make her meta defense look like an effort to discern CTD's allignment- that looked suspicious.

I'm actually having second thoughts about this read though...

I feel like DeasVail's contradictory posts about CrashTextDummie's massclaim idea as a reaction test would have been more useful if he'd committed more, as

doing such an abrupt 180 makes me wonder how much relevant information he mined from it

.

Can you please elaborate on this (specifically the bolded)? Why do you think an 'abrupt 180' would limit the amount of information that was gained?

@Tierce- why is N probably scum?

Worth mentioning Wjester logged in while I was at L-1, I got an unvote, and Wjester didn't end up posting.

... your point?

Her being "eh, don't really know what's going on" and not being at all concerned about the votes on her is A+ good and not what I expected if she was scum.

What would you expect if she was scum?


More in a few...

[Wickedestjr]

Current reads-
Probably town; Llamarble, Johhog, Konowa, Tammy
Neutral; everyone else
Weird vibe/gutfeeling; Empire, Benmage, penguin, N
Might be scum; Shadoweh, CTD, CES

I'll admit, I'm struggling to develop many strong reads. And I dislike checking other games (for meta purposes) to develop/strengthen reads in this one, but I might have to do this soon anyway seeing as I'm only somewhat familiar with two or three players here. I'm kinda frustrated/stressed/tired right now so I plan to look a little deeper tomorrow. And I'm hoping to establish more stronger reads asap.

[Wickedestjr]

EBWOP: I'll explain those scumreads tomorrow as well. However, I would like a response to one particular question before I do so.

[Wickedestjr]

1: The comment(s) that appeared too confident quote unquote is referring to everything I said about my dream team? I would have called the emotion unbridled optimism.

2: I'm quite sure all three of them are town. Just by posing the question I expect reactions that help determine that alignment.

3: Re: Tierce: Why would you need a reason to talk about Tierce? I vaguely recall someone mentioned her and reading her around that time though.

4: I'm not sure what you mean about the CTD thing. I didn't say he should reconsider. I asked why he hadn't mentioned the connecting opinions there. My meta defense is 100% sarcastic derision of someone voting me for Being Shadoweh. Kind of like being suspicious of me for wanting to make a voting block which I clearly haven't been voting with.

1: I was referring to this:

People are already started with the penguin who made a post that screams VOTES HERE PLEASE.

Why the "unbridled optimism" ?

2: You were 'quite sure' they were all town after just page 1? Your comment is irrelevant if that's not the case. Also, it looks like you only got one response. Why did you expect more?

3: Oh okay... looks like your Tierce comment was a response to Tierce's suspicion of Konowa. Am I right?

4: You asked CTD if Empire's read on you affected CTD's scumread on you. Why would it? And why should CTD have mentioned it? Note that Empire gave you a nullread... If I were CTD I also would've completely ignored Empire's post.

Neutral; everyone else

1: Please explain why you don't have a read on me. There is a pretty much universal Townread going about--what are your feelings on it?


2: Your reads feel fairly safe. Please come back with more.

1: ...it's just not obvious to me right now. I don't have a read on you for the same reason that I don't have a read on DV or penguin. I've never played with you before, so maybe that's also why. I'm not one to blindly follow the townreads of others. Those townreading you for meta I'm slightly inclined to believe, but I'm not going to read you based on meta tells when

I

haven't even looked at your other games. Those townreading you for other reasons are not really influencing my read on you.

2: Promised I would. What's safe about my reads?

Also, why is N probably scum?

[Wickedestjr]

Unvote. Vote: CTD

Can you please answer my question at the top of 248?

I'm a little behind, but I can't see this vote changing based on what I have yet to read. I'll explain the vote later (most likely after CTD answers my question). This explanation will probably be accompanied by reads on everyone and hopefully my page 18-20 guess regarding who the scum team is.

[Wickedestjr]

Penguin may be scum anyway though; she still pattern-matches as dicey.

Llamarble, what did you mean by this?

[Wickedestjr]

Phone post

I voted CTD for the following reasons-
-His questions for DV (which I asked him about) were kind of unhelpful/uninteresting. He admitted that he didnt find DV's post suspicious. It looks like it can only be an attempt to look like hes scumhunting.
-Most of his posting revolves around going after easy/popular targets or responding to comments that regard him or his suspects.

Side note: CTD vs Shadoweh feels like bussing
-it is weird that ctd singled her out on page 2 for the reasoning he used
-shadoweh's response strikes me as significantly different from her response to my suspicion of her
-they both seem strangely confident in their suspicions of eachother
-shadoweh said she would vig him without a claim!
-kinda odd how ctd isnt voting her

---------------------------------------------------

I almost switched my vote to penguin. The vote for N is opportunism at its finest. Note that it took 20 pages and a few votes for N before penguin realized that N's lack of contribution was suspicious and voteworthy. IIRC the vote for Llamarble was opportunistic too.

[Wickedestjr]

Phone post

I think the scum are amongst: bm, ces, ctd, dv, nacho, pa, shadoweh, vi

Ill try to narrow it down later.

I don't like the N bw- i think hes town and even if i suspected him he'd be a bad lynch for today

BM what's the scum motive for saying im struggling?
CES gives a pretty strong scum vibe, but idk why and i always think he's Mafia so I'm hesitant and he's on my untouchable list

What do you guys think about Nacho and DV?

[Wickedestjr]

I think Johhog is town because he doesn't seem to care about how he is perceived. The ignorance of valid questions is annoying but doesn't seem like a scumtell for him in this case- I think he would answer the questions as scum. I also think his response to Tierce when she unvoted DV looked genuine. Llamarble looks like town because of his reads and justification for those reads. He pointed out things which I had also used to read some other players. I didn't necessarily agree with everything he's said, but I don't get the impression that he's 'faking' anything. E.g. his early scumread on CTD- the point regarding the link didn't make sense to me, but I have a hard time imagining him coming up with it as mafia.

Benmage- I can think of some reasons... nothing strong though. It seems like a very weak/easy thing to attack me for. Answer my question please.

Shadoweh- switch back to CTD?
Everyone- vote CTD?

I'll try to contribute some more tomorrow when I'm at a computer. I don't like phone posting. Takes me forever to make posts like this.

[Wickedestjr]

Llamarble looks like town because of his reads and justification for those reads. He pointed out things which I had also used to read some other players. I didn't necessarily agree with everything he's said, but I don't get the impression that he's 'faking' anything. E.g. his early scumread on CTD- the point regarding the link didn't make sense to me, but I have a hard time imagining him coming up with it as mafia.

Do you have any reasoning that isn't gut?

...yeah, most of the stuff I already said.

Benmage- I can think of some reasons... nothing strong though. It seems like a very weak/easy thing to attack me for. Answer my question please.

List what you've come up with, (I'm trying to gauge your thought process) and I will be more then happy to oblige.

Possible reasons you might find my post suspicious-
-You believe I'm trying to avoid taking stances.
-You believe I'm trying to give myself room to backpedal later. (e.g. "That read was never strong anyway, so I'm changing it")
-You believe revealing my lack of confidence benefits the mafia.
-You believe I'm possible trying to AtE. (e.g. "WAAAH I can't get reads!")
That's all I can think of. All of these reasons seem weak/flawed, however. And for the record, I can assure you that I'm pretty confident in the stances I have taken in my recent posts. Your turn.


@Tammy- you say that Johhog is suspicious because his play here doesn't feel like his ordinary town play. Have you checked some of his games as scum? How do they compare to this?

Working on another post now...

[Wickedestjr]

What's the likelihood of Vi getting lynched today?

[Wickedestjr]

That's a pretty solid list. So I don't know why you had an issue with my statements when you can conclude the reasoning yourself. I don't think its necessarily weak or flawed (Flawed, how so? Subjective because in your case you find it flawed, or flawed in general?)

For some players, I would agree that this is a valid reason for suspicion. For any experienced/good player, I would say that this is not a good reason for suspicion. Wifom, but I do well enough as scum to not have to try something like that + it would be easier for me to have just expressed strong suspicions like (almost) everyone else. I am aware of the fact that expressing strong suspicions is more helpful/protown than struggling. How was it not plausible for me, as town, to struggle early on? Especially considering I've played two games in the last year neither of which contained any players in this game and there are only two/three players I have played a few times with (none of those two/three players I have a good read on yet).

Wicked - Initially, I said if penguin then Wicked (I still think this read 480) , and later revised to he can go regardless. 484 made me throw up in mouth a little.

1:

Maybe I'm expecting too much, but listing right people and saying scum is in there?

2:

Saying that CES is in that group but that he always finds him Mafia so he's untouchable, I don't understand the need as Town today that.

3:

Then the softball request for views on DV and Nacho with lack of follow through. Seems like a complete swing and a miss of a post.

1: What do you find suspicious about that?
2: I thought it was important to establish my leaning-scum read on him. Why wouldn't it be? Not sure what your issue with the untouchable comment is either. Note that you have a town read on another player who made a similar comment.
3: I'm neutral on both of those players. Not leaning either way at all. I can't think of a potential follow-up. I thought about asking specific players for their opinions, but I decided that wasn't necessary at this point. Tomorrow I'll make more of an effort to develop reads on them.


More in a few...

[Wickedestjr]

It doesn't look like there are nine people interested in a CTD lynch today. So I'm going to

Unvote

even though he is still my top suspect.

Vote: penguin

A check of some of N's past games says that his play here most resembles his town meta. He's been useless, which is annoying, but that's not enough reason for a lynch- especially on day 1 (not saying why). I would much prefer a penguin lynch. Every serious vote she has cast was opportunistic. I don't think that can be said of anyone else. Note, as I said before, it took 20 pages and a few votes for N before penguin realized that N's lack of contribution was suspicious and voteworthy. I don't buy it.

I would like to see-
-more votes for penguin or N (doesn't seem as if there is enough interest in any other option right now)
-a claim once someone gets more votes (asap- i would hate to have a last minute pr claim)

[Wickedestjr]

A check of some of N's past games says that his play here most resembles his town meta.

Which games did you check?

Micros 76,110,112
NY 160
Open 469

[Wickedestjr]

And of course you could be persuaded to vote penguin-alien at deadline. Ignoring a wagon all day long and then going "oh well, deadline-lynch" is shady as fuck.

How is that "shady as fuck"?

A check of some of N's past games says that his play here most resembles his town meta. He's been useless, which is annoying, but that's not enough reason for a lynch- especially on day 1 (not saying why).

...N explicitly says he's attempting to play differently than his past style, and your conclusion is that he's playing like he did in the past?

No, my conclusion is that his play here is more similar to his town meta than his scum meta.

And the "not saying why" is really shady.

The "not saying why" was only in regard to the "especially on day 1" comment. How was that comment "really shady"?

Yes, I thought Llamarble was the scummiest for a while. At that time too, I was considering N's play in contrast to my previous game with him. After he kept being disengaged and deliberately side-stepping the issues of the game, I decided that overrode previous meta in my judgment.

...and you made that decision right around the time N had four votes. Coincidence? I think not. Note, also, that in the post prior to your vote post you seemed to be leaning town on his play- you pointed out how his play here was different from his typical scum play.

[Wickedestjr]

So what did you mean by 'not saying why'? Because I interpreted that as having some reason specifically to keep him alive beyond being a town read that you don't want to share. Which leans scum to me.

I added the 'not saying why' comment to show that I had a reason for believing this kind of lynch was bad on day 1 especially (but I didn't feel the need to explain). And it

is

a reason beyond my town read on him. Why do you find that suspicious? What motivation would I have to say that as mafia?

[Wickedestjr]

N is at L-2. I agree that he should claim now.

[Wickedestjr]

Nothing seems worth commenting on and/or replying to now aside from this:

Wickedestjr--His early play this day phase felt town, but he's been slipping over to a scum read as things progress.

1:

I think him not wanting N lynched with the little hook of 'not saying why' and not being willing to follow up on that, yet

2:

telling people to vote for me or N reads like an unwillingness to take a stance.

3:

How does he define the distinction between being opportunistic and persuaded to change one's mind anyways? His early interest in Shadoweh as linked with CTD showed more of a willingness to stick his neck out that petered out. Leaning scum

1:

I explained the 'not saying why' comment. I asked you what my motivation as scum would be to say that and you didn't answer. Hint: There is no scum benefit behind saying 'not saying why'. If I was mafia who had a scum-motive for keeping N alive but was keeping said reason to myself, then why would I even bother to say 'not saying why', thus drawing attention to it? Hint: I wouldn't.

2:

UNWILLINGNESS TO TAKE A STANCE?!?! Are you effing kidding me? I'm voting you and have clearly stated that I suspect you, but don't suspect N. How the hell am I unwilling to take a stance? Read the thread please. I told people to vote you or N because those were the two bandwagons which had potential imo- and I don't want a no-lynch to occur.

3:

It's fine to be persuaded to change your mind occasionally, but I have issue with your play because:

• If not opportunistic, then both of your serious votes were result of persuasion by other players.
  
• Both of your votes followed a few other votes for the same player.
  
• The case on N (for the most part) was not only obvious (meaning not much persuasion necessary), but present for most of the game.

[Wickedestjr]

Somebody please hammer penguin.

[Wickedestjr]

*Prod dodge*

This has been a busy week, but I'll be sure to make a post tonight.

[Wickedestjr]

"his reads and justification to those reads" - 1. Which reads, what justification?
"Pointed out things which I used to read other players" - 2. What does this have to do with anything?
"I don't get the impression he's 'faking' anything" - 3. Why does something that doesn't make sense to you make it hard to fake?

1. In particular, his reads/comments on Johhog, Konowa, CTD, and BM in post 96 seemed more likely to be coming from town.
2. I think it means Llamarble is more likely to be town. Is there something wrong with my logic here? How is this not relevant?
3. It doesn't seem genuine because it doesn't make sense. My stance: it doesn't make sense to me, HOWEVER, it seems genuine.

Oh sorry. In Post 103 he makes sure to follow up with Ben why he called CES scum. Benmage had previously called both Empire and CES scum in Post 42 without any reasoning for either, so why is CES the only one that wicked mentions? (He also does a similar thing with wondering why Tierce thinks N is scum in Post 248)

Benmage singled out two players as scum very early on (page 2ish). His scumread on CES came after just one post from him;

We won't.

Vote: penguin

That's a pretty significant page 2 stance for Benmage based on hardly anything. There's nothing unusual about my question.

Wicked- The main thing that sticks out to me is 739. If you think someone is scum and that they're about to be lynched, then would you really be bothered as town to defend against their accusations?

Yes, I would. Ftr, it wasn't 100% obvious to me that penguin was going to get lynched. I was hoping my post would sway any undecided players. You could also say that I was angered by penguin's points and wanted to show that they were invalid as a result.

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked's play so far has been a big bag of "eh". There's a lot of promises, "sorry I'm not playing good enough", "I'm so busy" that I would expect from scum returning to a playerlist like this.

Please please please please don't connect my inactivity to a scum motive. I am genuinely super busy- I wouldn't lurk excessively as scum. If I had been given a scum role pm, I wouldn't deliberately resort to lurking/not playing, even with a playerlist like this, for the following reasons;
-I am almost never scum. I wouldn't just ruin a rare opportunity by... not playing.
-This is a great playerlist. It would have been a great way to test my play as scum.
-I do just fine as scum. If you look at all of my games as mafia, you'll see that I either survived to the very end or was lynched because I was confirmed scum. And not being familiar with the playerlist works both ways- most of the playerlist is unfamiliar with me, which would be beneficial to me as mafia.
TL;DR - I wouldn't be afraid as mafia.

I mean, every post he makes comes with the caveat of "I don't know enough people here, I'm behind" and it wears me down.

I mentioned that I don't know many people here in ONE post. And I haven't said anything along the lines of "I'm behind" in half of my posts. Nice misrep.

...and sorry for wearing you down?

Post #484 doesn't make sense for Wicked if he was lost,

This is a terrible terrible point. Are you serious here? Firstly, I NEVER said I was lost. I said I was struggling in post 254, yet still managed to take several stances. Secondly, the contradiction you imply here is absolute bs, considering post 484 came after twice as many posts as post 254. Struggling on page 11 means I should also be struggling on page 20? No way. Come on now.

letting a lot of those reads drop to the wayside doesn't make sense

I have no idea what this means. What are you trying to say here?

his reasoning for the townreads he has are shit.

No. It's not. This is the kind of reasoning I always use and I have had a tendency to be pretty successful with my reads as town.

Not arguing with Vi-scum cases and instead pulling the whole "oh, what's the chance Vi gets lynched today?" card is bad,

Firstly, what Vi-scum case? Secondly, at the time I asked this question, unless there were PRs among PA/N/CTD, I very strongly believed a Vi lynch was not going to happen. There's nothing bad about that.

the "I'm unvoting but he's STILL MY TOP SUSPECT" is framed like a defense as opposed to "I'm unvoting because NO ONE WILL LYNCH HIM (shadoweh)",

No it's not. There's nothing I would really be defending against in this case. I was simply establishing that my stance hadn't changed.

the "every vote is opportunistic" attack on penguin is stupid considering she's made 2 votes so far,

Sure, penguin had only made two votes, but some other players had made more. And IIRC, every player that had cast only one/two votes had at least cast one non-opportunistic vote. e.g. N.

wanting his townread N to claim as opposed to the person he's trying to lynch penguin to claim is similarly bad.

Um... again, are you serious? Doesn't matter where I stand, especially in this situation ON DAY 1. If somebody's at L-2 and the time's almost up, then that somebody needs to claim. N could've been my strongest town read in my entire experience of playing mafia and I would've asked him to claim in that scenario. I could've even been in N's position and I would've claimed. It's the correct play. Worth noting that Llamarble did the exact same thing, and IIRC you completely ignored him.

So there's a whole lot of and not a lot of .

I'll agree with the latter point, but not the former.

[Wickedestjr]

I've only played with a mafia traitor once and even that game was years ago. A brief check of that game showed that the mafia traitor in that game knew who the mafia were but the mafia didn't know who he was. I'm going to assume that's the case here, because I believe that is the typical setup. A skim of that mafia traitor's iso shows that they expressed suspicion of all three mafia in one single post very early on- in general they made it very obvious to the mafia that they were the traitor. If CTD was a mafia traitor, then the last thing he would want to do is attract the mafia kill, obviously. After thinking it over, the only possibilities I see are;
a.) He expressed suspicion of all the mafia. - Probably not the case, considering I town read most of the players he attacked.
b.) He mentioned/referred to all of the mafia in one of his posts (on at least one occasion). - He probably would have done this in his first serious post, indicating that the mafia are Shadoweh/DV/Empire. I'm not sure that he would have done this, however, if two of these three players were to flip mafia, then I'd happily lynch the third.
c.) He avoided suspecting any of his scum partners. - Seems plausible considering I town read most of the players he attacked and he was fairly tunnel visioned.
d.) He didn't use any particular strategy. - Possible. There's a risk of the mafia killing him, however, he avoids being easily connected to the mafia.

Tbph, I could see CTD try any of the last three strategies (b-d). I need to think about this. (I mostly posted this just as a reference for later).

I like the CES bandwagon, but I prefer to

Vote: DeasVail

. This weekend I intend to give the game a closer look, to take a confident stance on CTD's mafia traitor flip, and to post a detailed scum list.

[Wickedestjr]

*Prod dodge*

Yesterday was particularly busy. I may be able to make another post tonight, but, regardless, the things that I promised earlier won't happen until tomorrow or Sunday (probably tomorrow).