/in-vitational 12: Mafia in #YOLOville - All wrapped up!

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: N

He's a slippery one...!

[penguin_alien]

Sorry, haven't had a decent block of time in the past 48 hours to get a grip on anything that's not really straightforward around here.

I feel like DeasVail's contradictory posts about CrashTextDummie's massclaim idea as a reaction test would have been more useful if he'd committed more, as doing such an abrupt 180 makes me wonder how much relevant information he mined from it. Compare to Konowa who got a bunch of people to jump on my wagon based on an RVS post. I'll still buy that DeasVail was reaction-fishing, so not currently a viable suspect to me.

Cogito Ergo Sum manages to hop on and coast for a while as far as I can tell, with his posts growing less and less related to the game at hand. Shows no interest in scum hunting beyond my wagon; why is that? I find Johhog's stance more pro-town, as it seems perfectly reasonable to want to see something change in the information you're getting from your lynch target before moving on.

Not loving the white-knight reaction to Konowa from Llamarble. And then Llamarble is jumping around with reasons to vote for people that seem rather thin and refuses to elaborate when called on that, namely that someone beefs up their post with a superfluous link implicates them as scum. Reads as a self-conscious attempt to get wagons going that he's not interested in standing behind.

UNVOTE: N
VOTE: Llamarble

[penguin_alien]

Penguin, what was your reaction when you saw my first post?

I thought you stating that we should lynch CTD as more emphatic than just voting him seemed like an extreme reaction. It felt fake, but I wasn't sure where you were going with it. Basically, saying we should lynch someone, saying that they're acting scummy, and voting them is just overkill as a reaction early on. It makes a lot more sense that you were using it more as a reaction test than a sentiment you were committed to.

Can you please elaborate on this (specifically the bolded)? Why do you think an 'abrupt 180' would limit the amount of information that was gained?

Stemming from the DeasVail provocation, my way of thinking is that if you're going to put yourself out on a limb like that, why not commit fully until you get something that gives you a solid read or two? Assuming it doesn't cause you to get wagoned on up; obviously then the need to abort takes priority. Instead he retracts his statement within 50 posts, and I don't see that any of his reads really follow from the reactions. I don't know if it would have been more effective to take it further, but I don't think he's demonstrated that it was useful as executed.

Penguin, did you realize I was Norlkaz (due to my mispost in this game) before you voted for me?

Yes, since you cut and pasted your account-slipped post. What does that have to do with anything? We played together in one game for one day where I spent most of my time trying to refute the assumption that the slot I'd replaced for rule-breaking had had irreconcilable differences with a scum teammate to bring about the force-replace, so while you played a good town game there, it wasn't anything I got much a chance to interact with. (If by 'led the town to victory' in 1412 you mean you didn't lynch a confirmed town vig over scum at LyLo, then yes, I concur) (And as smarmy as Kirk is, I prefer that avatar to the scary blue face, so.)

The thing about the question you say you've addressed sufficiently (why including a link in an RVS post was so very scummy) was that you did nothing to put any weight behind that opinion, yet it was enough to make a serious vote. You deflect when first questioned: #126 and so saying:

Also I have elaborated on my reasons for voting people rather more than is typical for me early on, including at least one explanation of exactly the question you asked.

doesn't work for me. And your elaboration for jumping around on your scum reads without commenting on their intervening posts was:

There is only so much time in a day.

which doesn't address anything. So I'm fine with my vote for now.

As far as addressing people voting for me, given that at least two seem to be gut reads with one stemming from a wagon Konowa started to see what would happen as near as I can tell, there's not much to say. Since I know I'm town, Johhog's persistence didn't set off alarm bells, and I don't think Shadoweh's opening post was overly sketchy, even with the 'town voting bloc' idea; about on the same level as DeasVail's overly-energetic jump on CTD.

After Llamarble, my clearest read echos most everyone else's in that Benmage seems town. I don't know what to make of N, but since the only game I've played with him was with him as scum pulling the wool over my eyes with a fake claim, I don't have a personal point of reference for changes in his style since then. Unless he wants to claim cop with an innocent on me, in which case I do promise I won't make the same mistake twice! More seriously, when I played with him as scum, he really worked to keep himself clean in contrast to his play here where he's not working to establish himself as pro-town.

Tammy, is it only Johhog's passivity that's making you think he's scum, or is there something more specific in his posting?

[penguin_alien]

@penguin: In #155, you pointed out how you didn't like CES's "coasting/non-game related posts" -- what do you think of Vi? If town, can you make any meaningful distinction between Vi's play and CES's play that would justify the different treatment?

At the time, I don't think there was a whole lot to distinguish them; I noticed CES more because he'd jumped on my wagon and then taken zero interest in doing anything with it. Since then, both have posted more content, so I don't think my initial characterization is particularly relevant. Having said that, as far as Vi is concerned right now, I'd put her as leaning town for the way she's posting: not very defensive, willing to vote ahead of the trend WRT N.

I don't see what those on CTD and Johhog are seeing; I'm assuming that Wickedestjr will explain further as promised as far as CTD is concerned.

If N is normally snarky and willing to provoke people when town, changing that up here while saying so in such a blatant way is making me leery, given my experience with him being oh-so-reasonable as scum before.

Ok, so why Penguin is but I don't really know, but I guess could be scum! (I think this might work better for everyone)

His reaction to my vote as I was rereading was too well thought out for someone who had never seen CTD play before. Scum reading through would obviously know I was town (and I think would pretty much have the reaction Penguin had) and adding on to this the fact that I'm pretty sure it was clearly a bad idea to continue considering the reactions to it, and it makes Penguin's post feel like saying stuff just to look town.

DeasVail, you asked for my reaction. Why wouldn't you want me to answer your question in a way that indicated I'd thought about it? Claiming that I'm saying stuff to look town when I'm answering your question is weak. And why assume that I've never seen CTD play? You're right, as it happens, but given that there are plenty of games from him to read up on should I choose makes this a huge assumption. (I generally don't read up on people's games; the only one I've read but not played with is Shadoweh in the process of getting inspiration for a Donner Party game.)

Overall, N's posts don't show much scum-hunting and a propensity for side-tracking to my mind. I'm not seeing anything from Llamarble that makes me think town, but N reads rather scummy at present.

UNVOTE: Llamarble
VOTE: N

Out of those on my wagon, I think CTD's jump on was the worst, followed by Empire's. I don't know whether I just don't understand how my own meta is seen or whether Teirce and Empire are cherry-picking parts of it that suit their case.

On the other hand, Teirce's build up to voting for me is to be expected, but she does actually understand her own meta so that doesn't mean anything. I actually doubt that she'll be moving her vote again today. (I mean that the way she built up to her vote is usual for her, not that she voted for me; that's debatable.)

Are any of these scum reads (or town reads in Tierce's case) that you're interested in championing?

[penguin_alien]

Shadoweh, I was mostly looking for tips on being an SK in that set-up given the quirky role reveal mechanic. Nothing's pinging with your play as congruent with your posts there,so nothing really to say.

And yes, my initial take on N was based on my past play with him. His current play looks scummy to me independent of meta considerations.

[penguin_alien]

N, that was the closest I found to scum reads from you aside from your stance on Nachomamma8. If you have others, do share.

[penguin_alien]

DeasVail, I commented on your gambit as a whole since it was played out by the time I had a chance to post. You then asked me to elaborate on my initial reaction to your first post, then said I thought it out too much. Rather frustrating.

N, why CTD? Why not present your case on Empire?

[penguin_alien]

I voted CTD for the following reasons-
-His questions for DV (which I asked him about) were kind of unhelpful/uninteresting. He admitted that he didnt find DV's post suspicious. It looks like it can only be an attempt to look like hes scumhunting.
-Most of his posting revolves around going after easy/popular targets or responding to comments that regard him or his suspects.

His question was pretty early on, and his choice to engage seems less scummy than the alternatives. And given that there seems to be an underlying sentiment that some targets aren't going to be lynched until later in the game, I don't think he's alone in focusing on some people while disregarding others. In reading through his ISO, he actually seems more willing to address a decent swath of people in his queries and calls out some targets that aren't high on anyone's list (Johhog springs to mind).

I don't see scum there. N's dodging (answering Vi's question with a reference to Konowa? in going through his ISO the only time he mentioned Konowa was on page one where he apparently interpreted Konowa's vote on me as buddying N) is not remotely town.

[penguin_alien]

Tammy, I didn't follow up on your answer to my question about Johhog because you didn't say anything new or different from your first point, which wasn't enough for me to want to pursue it. All this talk of 'are people playing in ways that lines up with past meta' gets rather tedious when one hasn't played with most of the playerlist.

penguinblorgon basically admitted Vi was bussing N.

Come again?

[penguin_alien]

A check of some of N's past games says that his play here most resembles his town meta. He's been useless, which is annoying, but that's not enough reason for a lynch- especially on day 1 (not saying why).

...N explicitly says he's attempting to play differently than his past style, and your conclusion is that he's playing like he did in the past? And the "not saying why" is really shady.

I would much prefer a penguin lynch. Every serious vote she has cast was opportunistic. I don't think that can be said of anyone else. Note, as I said before, it took 20 pages and a few votes for N before penguin realized that N's lack of contribution was suspicious and voteworthy. I don't buy it.

Yes, I thought Llamarble was the scummiest for a while. At that time too, I was considering N's play in contrast to my previous game with him. After he kept being disengaged and deliberately side-stepping the issues of the game, I decided that overrode previous meta in my judgment.

[penguin_alien]

N's play was different than one scum game I played with him--hardly conclusive, only enough for me to want to see how his play here evolved. During the intervening time, he made nine posts that were even less scum-hunty. I changed my mind based on new evidence.

So what did you mean by 'not saying why'? Because I interpreted that as having some reason specifically to keep him alive beyond being a town read that you don't want to share. Which leans scum to me.

[penguin_alien]

Ninja'd by Tierce and Empire; posting this anyways; will check new posts out after.

Claim and reads follow in the interest of not running into deadline:

Claim: VT

Reads:

Benmage--Town for spontaneity of posts. Pretty certain here; moving on.

Cogito Ergo Sum--Not wild about him basing a lot of his reasoning off the idea that N, Vi, and I are a scum team, as I know that to be inaccurate. If he'd continued to push me, I'd find it more likely that he's a misguided townie; that he moved on to N and Vi and claims that I confirmed Vi was bussing N (really?) makes it feel like he has an excuse to push me and Vi if scumbuddy N gets run up. His avoiding what I consider to be a bad wagon with CrashTextDummie puts him slightly leaning town depending on how firmly he holds to his pet scum team theory.

CrashTextDummie--I'll quote myself from earlier as my read here hasn't changed:

[CrashTextDummie's] question [to DeasVail] was pretty early on, and his choice to engage seems less scummy than the alternatives. And given that there seems to be an underlying sentiment that some targets aren't going to be lynched until later in the game, I don't think he's alone in focusing on some people while disregarding others. In reading through his ISO, he actually seems more willing to address a decent swath of people in his queries and calls out some targets that aren't high on anyone's list (Johhog springs to mind).

Town read

DeasVail--Bugs me that he asked me about my reaction to his page one post, then said I'd thought about it too much. I still think that if he wanted it to be worth the confusion, he should have pursued it further, but then I don't have experience with making such moves myself, so it's more a point of interest by this time. Very slight townread, more for the first half of the day than the second.

Empire--Another player who seems to engage with most of the playing field. Not getting anything scummy from him, including his early lynch pool. Leans town.

Johhog--I have no problem with his pressure vote in the early part of the day; it's how I'd react to someone dropping off the radar. Later on, his push on CrashTextDummie for what boils down to 'not being scummy' in this post starts getting weird to me. His votes feel convenient, in that he jumps on my early wagon for fun, then quickly votes and unvotes DeasVail, having changed his mind based on knowing that DeasVail has been aware of CTD's propensity to ask for mass-claims. Then he sees nowhere to put his vote for a decent span of time until he arrives at CES, but once there fails to attempt to persuade anyone that he's correct. And now he's taking the least committed stance on me vs. N around. Scum read

Konowa--Kicked off a wagon in RVS, great. Jumped off of it really quickly, voted DeasVail with no attempt to persuade others of his scumminess, didn't put his vote anywhere for a while, then jumped back onto me despite having what I'd consider more substantial scum suspects in this post. Seeing as his reasoning for me seems to be that I changed my mind. Which townies never do, don't ya know. Scum read

Llamarble--I hate his reasoning that since he was a good town player in a previous game I should show hesitation at voting for him here. I felt that N's persistence in being opaque and intentionally not contributing trumped Llamarble's light reasoning on CrashTextDummie, but he remains scummy to me. His insistence that much of his reads stem from gut without a whole lot to back it up bothers me. It's one thing to feel something via gut, but something actually present has to trigger said read; it might take time to parse it out, but that doing so is not possible is a cop-out. Scum read

N--I still think he's scum. He's willing to try things, sure, but how is what he's doing here helpful to town? He committed to zero reads in the first part of the day, became defensive when called out on that without attempting to rectify the situation, and wrote it all off as a new play style. I see no town motivation here. Scum read

Nachomamma8--No quibbles with his stances. He's right that I haven't been walling like I normally do. Given that the Open 459 was the only game I've played as Mafia scum start-to-finish (SK game and replace-into-newbie-with-doc-and-JK-claimed were horses of a different color) I can't disagree that my fresh-scum meta involved tunneling. His reads are otherwise what I'd have expected to get from him over the course of the game if he hadn't been V/LA. Town read

Shadoweh--Despite the townie voting bloc suggestion at the start, her arguments generally put her in positions where she's invested in the game and the posting of others in a way that I wouldn't expect from scum. Leaning town

Tammy--Strong town read for spontaneity again.

Tierce--Mostly organic reasoning. The only parts of her ISO I don't like is where she talks about how hard the game is to follow, particularly since the rest of her postings belie this sentiment. Leaning town.

Vi--Can't read; further confused by the talk of him having a meta that indicates fluffiness is to be expected early on. Mostly like what serious thoughts are present. Leaning town

Wickedestjr--His early play this day phase felt town, but he's been slipping over to a scum read as things progress. I think him not wanting N lynched with the little hook of 'not saying why' and not being willing to follow up on that, yet telling people to vote for me

or N

reads like an unwillingness to take a stance. How does he define the distinction between being opportunistic and persuaded to change one's mind anyways? His early interest in Shadoweh as linked with CTD showed more of a willingness to stick his neck out that petered out. Leaning scum

Summary:

Town on Benmage, CTD, CES, DeasVail, Empire, Nachomamma8, Shadoweh, Tammy, Tierce, Vi

Scum on Johhog, Konowa, Llamarble, N, Wickedestjr

Obviously I have more scum reads than we are likely to have scum in the game. I'd rank them from strongest to weakest as Johhog > Konowa > N = Wickedestjr > Llamarble right now FWIW.

Happy to answer questions about any of this in the time remaining; I'll be in and out today.

[penguin_alien]

Gah. I need an hydra buddy or something. I feel like so much of this game is going WOOOOOSH over my head and that I don't know how to play alone anymore. I want to gripe about situations and get someone who reads the parts I skim and the possibility of bouncing ideas back and forth and I just can't.

Mostly this, plus a couple mentions of people you don't think you can read/can't read this early in the game. It's the only thing that stuck out in your ISO for me because the rest of it didn't match the quoted sentiment.

[penguin_alien]

...so you know it's a mislynch but want to use it against Vi. When some of my wagon is there in part due to believing that I'm scum on a team with Vi. Good luck with that.

Nachomamma8, the only thing that tips CES in my mind is his not buying into the CTD wagon where he could have, but a lot of my take on him would depend on how he reacts to having a flip from the list of his scum team. If he was pushing on me and then planned to use my town flip to write off N and Vi, I'd find that suspicious. Since I think N is scum, I don't think it makes much sense for him to bus his teammate for the sake of supporting a lynch on me, since I don't know that he'd have much success with using that tactic on Vi any time soon given how people are wanting him to stay alive for a while before committing to reads there. As such, a 1:1 trade isn't super-useful for him. It's not a strong town read, but based on what's there it's where I am on him.

WRT DeasVail, I'm probably not very objective on him, since he's been pushing his scum read on me quite a bit off some flimsy evidence. Despite that, his early game play showed a willingness to take a risk, even if it wasn't optimal, and he had a number of posts from the start of the day not dealing with that move that were actively questioning people on what he saw as non-optimal behavior.

On my way out the door; I'll elaborate on Benmage, Empire, Tammy, Tierce, and Vi later if there's time before hammer, although it boils down to their posts being reactive without being self-conscious.

[penguin_alien]

Shocking, people I suspect as scum finding that part of my posts to be the only relevant part, calling for a hammer, and placing the hammer. I am a VT, but since I'd say that as scum I would consider it to be of limited utility.

Wickedestjr: #1: WIFOM much? #2: I maintain that your willingness to see N lynched instead of me, rather than persuading people to lynch me throughout, reads as non-committal. YMMV. #3: I don't generally change my mind on a dime; I tend to pursue my scum reads until I have a concrete reason to shift--see Micro 99. So lynch me...oh, wait. Right.

Off for a late lunch; if there's time before the flip I may get back to fleshing out those town reads, otherwise when I flip town at least you'll know they were sincere.

[penguin_alien]

Many thanks to Faraday for modding (and the last flavor part was gold!)

This was a great game to follow, and I'd echo what people have been saying about both sides playing quite well.

Hope to play with y'all again in the future!