Open 480 - C9++ Game Over!

[Thurhame]

Hello! I'll start catching up in between classes tomorrow. This is my first non-Newbie game; I'm looking forward to it!

[Thurhame]

...Not looking forward to 33 pages of catchup, though. Only the second day and there's already more posts than the entirety of the longest game I've played

[Thurhame]

...Not looking forward to 33 pages of catchup, though. Only the second day and there's already more posts than the entirety of the longest game I've played

Coming in sprouting lies? I see two games you played (excluding one you replaced out of) that are longer that this (which also happen to be first two games if you're interested in where I looked), one of which you stayed the whole way in from start to finish.

I don't know how you benefit from that, but I'm watching you.

I'm sure my first game was only seven hundred and some posts

...oh wait, that was just day one. Sorry; my bad.

[Thurhame]

Ok, here's my analysis of the first few pages.

Spoiler: Page 1

• Nobody Special's reply to Cub in 9 strikes me as a little over-the-top for mere modesty. I don't want to say it's alignment-indicative, though, since I know nothing about his style. It could be sarcasm, or a dig at Cub's own over-the-topness.
  
• Implosion's 12 strikes me as Town. It's something I could easily see him looking at as an information-deprived scumhunter, but not something I could see scum latching onto.
  
• 15: Beli's only contribution on this page is some joke image? How am I going to take him seriously now?
  
• Cheery Dog spends this page critiquing others rather than putting forth his own contributions. Could be an honest attempt to participate in discussion; could be lazy scum. Null for now, but keep it in mind later.
  
• @Nobody Special: 23 is irrelevant and useless. Don't do this.

Spoiler: Page 2

• implosion's belligerent style seems like just his style; not going to pull alignment from it.
  
• Cheery Dog still does nothing but critique others; doesn't look like he's trying to use it to scumhunt or anything. Seems a lot like what I did in my scum game.
  
• 36 Belisarius starts the first 3+ wagon; let's see how people respond.
  
• 37,42 NS doesn't seem to care about doing anything.
  
• 44 SafetyDance's intro feels Town.
  
• 47 implosion's first reasoned vote. Unfortunately switching kills the NS wagon; I wanted to see where that would go.

Spoiler: Page 3

• 54 SafetyDance's reasoning for his vote here is pathetic. I think scum would be more careful than this.
  
• 59 Completely agree with the last point here. I do the same thing regardless of alignment.
  
• Belisarius continues to be short and to-the-point. Could be cautiousness scumtell, more likely just personal style.
  
• 65 Defensive much, NS?
  
• 70 Cheery Dog's first non-rvs vote. Too bad it's based on a miscommunication (minor newbtown or null in my book).
  
• 73 Very true. All good cases come from intuition (i.e. gut).

Spoiler: Page 4

• 76 ...and what do you think of Cheery's thought processes, Beli?
  
• 80 Apozzle returns! I believe he's the only one here I've played with before.
  
• 89 This post pretty much solidifies implosion as Town in my book.
  
• 98 SafetyDance restarts the NS wagon. Let's see if it gets him to stop active lurking.

Spoiler: Page 5

• 100,101 Two of our latecomers show up; nothing special in their intro posts.
  
• 106 ...and there goes the NS wagon. Is it too much to ask to be able to maintain some pressure here?
  
• 107 Overreaction much, PPP?
  
• 110 Apparently PPP thinks there's no such thing as overreacting.
  
• 112 Strong opening post from Messiah, though I don't agree with his reasoning.
  
• 117 Beli's second non-rvs vote; again jumping on someone else's wagon.

Spoiler: Page 6

• Safety-PPP continues to look like a childish town-v-town.
  
• 140 NS's first post of analysis.
  
• 148 Not sure what Beli means here. Is he scum trying to suppress whatever NS saw?

tl;dr
Townreads on Safety and implosion; potential Scum in Belisarius and/or Cheery.

More pages to come. I'll probably focus on individual pages/posts less and trends from skimming more.

[Thurhame]

I was going to spend today reading/skimming and vote early tomorrow, but this situation needs to be addressed now. The only wagon is Human Destroyer, at L-1, who I don't want to lynch. I believe his claim, and even if I didn't, he's a claimed power role - if he's scum we can catch him later from the setup.

I don't like Belisarius's response to the claim, or the way Cheery Dog jumped on the wagon. Given that these are my suspects from what I've read so far, I'd lay good odds at least one of them is Scum.

VOTE: Belisarius

P.S. I agree with ac1983fan - if HD is telling the truth, he shouldn't use his vigshot yet. At this stage it could do more harm than good, especially in the hands of a relatively weak player.

[Thurhame]

His claim unless we're facing a two-man team of ns and hd does mean scum have a roleblocker, but that's the only thing that baas changed for me.
it does add slightly to the hd = sk theory that was here last week though.

Going with mr bring right that beli and hd are scum, my reads say the third is somewhere is edo, ns. Thurthame and susan.

Cub being Mason practically confirms there are 3 Mafia, not 2 (99.9%).

[Thurhame]

His claim unless we're facing a two-man team of ns and hd does mean scum have a roleblocker, but that's the only thing that baas changed for me.
it does add slightly to the hd = sk theory that was here last week though.

Going with mr bring right that beli and hd are scum, my reads say the third is somewhere is edo, ns. Thurthame and susan.

Cub being Mason practically confirms there are 3 Mafia, not 2 (99.9%).

Well, no.

But with my and NS's claims added on (assuming they're both true, which mine is), 3 Mafia is confirmed.

Oops, you're right, it's only about 96%.

[Thurhame]

P.S. Who's Susan?

[Thurhame]

Also, who's mr?

[Thurhame]

This is the final day of the deadline, people! We need to get a lynch in! Vote

Belisarius

!

[Thurhame]

I guess that's a lot easier than those multi-P acronyms. Susan it is.

[Thurhame]

Meh on the VT/Vig thing. I suppose we'll find out. Btw HD, GUESS WHICH ALIGNMENT LIKES CLAIMING AS VIG?

So you're saying he's SK? I think goodmorning said something similar in 511. I don't really buy it though; his switch comes across as an honest mistake.

[Thurhame]

We need 4 more votes to lynch. Cheery has confirmed he's willing to lynch Beli, that leaves 3.

@SafetyDance:

No one is voting Edo, would you be willing to vote Beli as your backup instead?

@Apozzle:

Your last read on Beli was leaning Scum. Would you be willing to vote him?

@Nobody Special:

No one is joining you on ac. Would you be willing to compromise with Beli?

@Human Destroyer:

Would you be willing to vote Beli to avoid a no-lynch?

[Thurhame]

Apozzle, I saw you reading this. Even if it's not Belisarius, at least come place a vote. We have 9 hours till deadline.

[Thurhame]

@Mod, can we get a prod on Edos? He's been posting in another game but not here.

definitely yes

[Thurhame]

Well drat.

UNVOTE: Belisarius
VOTE: Cheery Dog

[Thurhame]

Perusing the setup possibilities; if there is another Roleblocker they should counterclaim now.

[Thurhame]

or another Cop, but I figure that one's obvious.

[Thurhame]

or a one-shot Doc
or a Vig
or a third Mason (Apozzle can confirm; no need to out him)

[Thurhame]

Yes.

[Thurhame]

After scanning various ISO's, Edos looks like the best compromise lynch (as in best chance to go through before deadline).

VOTE: Edosurist

just under 7 hours to deadline

[Thurhame]

@Thurhame

Could you explain in a bit more detail why you switched from Cheery to Edo? Both Cheery and Edo were sitting at no votes, so why does Edo have the best chance of going through? You've had a scum read on Cheery, but no such mention of one on Edo.

Basically, there are multiple players who either have Cheery as Town or flat out refuse to lynch him. Same for everyone else I considered except Edos. Edos has only 1 townread on him that I saw, so we should be able to lynch him even if one or two people don't show up between now and deadline.

[Thurhame]

2 votes down, 4 to go. 5 hours before deadline.

[Thurhame]

He's a better lynch than Town, and more likely to get enough votes before deadline than Cheery. With less than 5 hours to go, that's enough for me.

[Thurhame]

3 votes down, 3 to go. Waiting on Apozzle, Nobody Special, Human Destroyer, SafetyDance, and Cheery Dog.

At this point it's either Edosurist or no lynch. Any other target would require getting literally

everyone

in here in the next 4 hours (assuming Edos doesn't come back).

[Thurhame]

That's 4 votes + 1 willing to vote.

We need 1 of Nobody Special, Human Destroyer, or SafetyDance to join.

[Thurhame]

You clearly stated you'd be willing to lynch Edos.

No. He said Edos was one of the players who can be lynched - as opposed to the claimed power roles + Beli's inno. He did NOT say that he

personally

was willing to lynch Edos.

[Thurhame]

I'd like to see a massclaim tomorrow. If we're lucky, it could tell us a little about who's telling the truth and/or lying. Opinions?

If we have a doc, protect Beli. Period.

If we have a one-shot cop, investigate tonight.
Beli should let us know who he's investigating tonight, so that the one-shot cop (if we have one) can investigate someone different.

Nobody Special should block one of the non-claims, but not say which one he's blocking until tomorrow.

[Thurhame]

That's true. Ok, how about he investigates Nobody Special? He's not likely to be godfather.

[Thurhame]

you have got to be kidding me
three last-minute wagons in a row, and ALL of them are PR claims?

[Thurhame]

ok, scratch everything i said in 932.

any one-shot cop should counterclaim tomorrow; it means NS or Beli is lying
any one-shot blocker should counterclaim tomorrow; it means Beli is lying
godfather is guaranteed unless we have two different fakeclaims including Beli

[Thurhame]

That makes Susan confirmed Town (unless NS or Beli is lying).

Confirmation of a Godfather means 0-2 T's; that makes 6 non-T letters a lot more plausible than some people were saying before.

About a mass-claim, it can either confirm HD's innocence (no additional roles); confirm someone is fakeclaiming (two+ additional roles); or tell us nothing (one additional role, the most likely scenario). I don't know whether it's worth it; what does everyone else think?

[Thurhame]

Why did the doctor claim mean that?

Scratch everything I said after the claim; I was assuming that he wouldn't lie after he'd already been lynched.

[Thurhame]

Ac can be town forever for helping me get that wagon started. I see no incentive for him to bus there.

[Thurhame]

VOTE: PeaceOfPecanPie
This might seem out there, but notice how he was one of the few defenders of Edos towards the end of the last day. Additionally, he's been very jumpy the whole game but especially day two...he was on nearly every wagon that led to a claim EXCEPT the Edos wagon, which turned out to be scum.

Doesn't fly anymore, as that would mean he's also partners with one of the other wagons (NS or Beli), which he WAS on.

[Thurhame]

Note i am assuming no serial killer which i think is fair.

Why do you think that?

That makes Susan confirmed Town (unless NS or Beli is lying).

By what logic? There are almost certainly two mafiosos left...PoPC could have been the scum who didn't submit any night actions.

Nope. According to the wiki page linked in one of the mod's opening posts, the Mafia Roleblocker is not allowed to block and kill in the same night.

Though I forgot about the possibility where Susan was the goon and the kill actually came from the SK. I don't think an SK is

likely

at this point, but the possibility is there.

[Thurhame]

-if none claims, then we get, effectively, a counterclaim situation between Nobody Special and Human Destroyer, because there would necessarily be exactly five letters.

Wouldn't a scum HD require 6 letters, if he's an SK fakeclaiming 1-shot vig?

[Thurhame]

Safety, the Scum have a Roleblocker, period. Nobody Special's honesty or lack thereof does not change that.

[Thurhame]

How does it make Susan conf town? What if he's their RB'er and the goon sent in the kill? (inb4 pecan, this don't not include the scenario that ns is scum rb)

If he's their roleblocker, then he couldn't have roleblocked Beli.

[Thurhame]

I'm relatively sure RBs don't work on RBs

I'm relatively sure they do.

@Mod: Can we get a confirmation on this?

Roleblockers can block other roleblockers, NAR is used if that occurs (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... Resolution)

[Thurhame]

There's nothing in the Roleblocker role PM which indicates this.

Natural Action Resolution dictates it I think.

I might be wrong on my interpretation of it though.

Suppose NS (Town Roleblocker) blocked Susan (Mafia Roleblocker), who blocked Beli (Town Cop). By Natural Action Resolution, NS's action is resolved first, because it is the only action unaffected by other actions. So NS blocks Susan, and Beli is free to investigate.

[Thurhame]

I'm going to assume (for now) that Beli and NS are telling the truth. The fact that they both targetted Susan makes me think they're thinking similarly.

VOTE: Cheery Dog

[Thurhame]

I'm a VT

@implosion: You're forgetting MMCCV*T (not likely because it needs serial killer) and MMCCB*T (not likely because HD is town, but would make perfect sense if he was sk faking 1-shot vig).

[Thurhame]

I just found this reading back through my votechart.

VOTE:

edosurist

Nothing I've seen from him today has really changed what I've thought about him.

Vote: ac1983fan

NS votes AC right after AC joins the Edos wagon, with no reasoning given.

[Thurhame]

Cub is weak scum for the tunneling on NS.

Then he proceeds to vote Safety, who had also been focusing on NS (or on connections with NS? I didn't really understand it, and neither did anyone else as far as I could see).

I intentionally skipped NS because I'm only voting for him if we have no other choice.

Here and elsewhere, he milks the meta argument as a reason to avoid lynching NS regardless of his alignment.

Given the evidence, I am willing to vote NS in spite of his claim.
VOTE: Nobody Special

[Thurhame]

VOTE: pieceofpecanpie

This means either:

• Susan and NS are scum, and there is an unknown SK; or
• Susan and Beli are scum, and Beli performed the kill; or
• Safety is scum.

[Thurhame]

HD, recheck your letters.

[Thurhame]

or

• Susan is scum with HD, and Susan performed the kill, and there is an unknown SK who shot Apozzle.

Also, Safety can't be scum with either Susan or Beli. If he's scum with NS or HD, then there is no SK; but if he's scum with someone who claimed VT, then there is an SK.

[Thurhame]

or

• Susan is scum with someone who claimed VT, and Susan performed the kill, and HD is the SK who shot Apozzle.

I really should think this all the way through before I start listing stuff.

[Thurhame]

Oh, and

L-1

.

[Thurhame]

Is it just me, or did we just get an impossible result?

[Thurhame]

@Mod:

I'd like a confirmation that our cop SafetyDance and his guilty claim pieceofpecanpie are both Town.

Yes, they are both town, and there have been no mod errors thus far in this game.

@Safety:

Neveer, ever, EVER as a Cop claim Guilty on someone you don't ACTUALLY have a guilty on.

Assuming the mod didn't make a mistake, I am very mad at Safety right now. It's only good luck that he died so we don't waste a lynch on him.

[Thurhame]

HD, did you use your vig shot?

[Thurhame]

even though safety lied he was still confirmed town - there was no possible setup that had him as scum.

What is this?

Go get your head checked.

[Thurhame]

Safety could have been scum with anyone

except

Beli. So when Susan flipped Town, that made Safety confirmed Scum based on his claim. HD made the right decision.

[Thurhame]

The possible setups at this point are:

• CVMMBTT: 2 Mafia. Beli is lying scum.
• CCCMMBT: 2 Mafia + SK. HD is lying scum (and almost certainly the SK).
• CCCVMMB: 2 Mafia. Both are VT claims.

[Thurhame]

Oh, I forgot about Beli's inno on safety.

[Thurhame]

The original probabilities of the setups are

• CVMMBTT: 2400
• CCCMMBT: 1080
• CCCVMMB: 216

(out of 1280000000).

[Thurhame]

I think the actual probability of HD being scum is much lower, given his reaction to Safety.

[Thurhame]

No Lynch is useless at this point. We know HD is almost certainly non-Mafia; even if he is the SK we can't lynch him. Given that, he's pretty much guaranteed to be tonight's death. So, MyLo or LyLo doesn't matter; we have a lynch pool of 5 either way.

We've gained as much information as we can from claims and setup; it's time to go back to old-fashioned scumhunting.
VOTE: Belisarius

[Thurhame]

The original probabilities of the setups are

• CVMMBTT: 2400
• CCCMMBT: 1080
• CCCVMMB: 216

(out of 1280000000).

I made a mistake here. The actual numbers are

• CVMMBTT: 3,024,000
• CCCMMBT: 453,600
• CCCVMMB: 90,720

(out of 1,280,000,000).

This is still not the primary reason I'm voting Beli.

[Thurhame]

Where is everyone?

Beli needs rope. The feel I get from him is pretty much identical to my attitude in my first Scum game. The lack of scumhunting, the passive voting (including today's No Lynch vote and subsequent unvote when pressured), and 538.

[Thurhame]

No Lynch will not help us in any way. I just want to get this over with. Vote the scum and win.

[Thurhame]

How?

[Thurhame]

To elaborate slightly: in a situation where no one is exempt from suspicion, eliminating any potential suspect is a boon. I can tell from experience that this is probably such a situation.

Hello? Human Destroyer is exempt from suspicion? He is not a potential Mafia suspect? Sure, there's a chance he could be SK, but we can't lynch that anyway.

[Thurhame]

...except that if he's SK, it proves Beli's innocence. *bangs head on wall* I am an idiot.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Thurhame]

I believe that's hammer.

[Thurhame]

I agree with you about Cheery.

Beli is still scum who needs rope.

[Thurhame]

Um, no? It screams, "Avoid no-lynch!"

[Thurhame]

If I was Scum and wanted towncred, I would have kept pushing Cheery, knowing the lynch was less likely to go through on time.

[Thurhame]

seriously? that's worse than beli's attack on cheery's 536.

could you elaborate?

[Thurhame]

Scum team is Thurhame and *insert someone that isn't me or Beli here*

Why not Beli?

[Thurhame]

No, "This is a better lynch than Town" only implies that Edo isn't one of the people I have down as "Town" (implosion, Safety, and Susan).

And yes, I'm pretty certain of scum Cheery at this point.

[Thurhame]

Well, it's not me or ac. That leaves Beli and Cheery. So yeah, pretty much confirmed scum from my point of view.

[Thurhame]

let's talk about how you never had ac1983 in your townpile before this post and how contrived it is

Ac can be town forever for helping me get that wagon started. I see no incentive for him to bus there.

Q.E.D.

[Thurhame]

He's not scum with me. He's scum with Beli.

What makes you so sure scum is me and not Beli?

[Thurhame]

I didn't pick that, you did.

[Thurhame]

@ac1983fan: Would you agree with HD that Beli and I are unlikely to be scum together?

[Thurhame]

If I was Scum and wanted towncred,

I would have kept pushing Cheery

, knowing the lynch was less likely to go through on time.

This implies if you were scum, Cheery would be your buddy and not Beli.
Why pick Cheery?

I repeat: I didn't pick that, you did. That hypothetical was a response to your accusation that I was scum with Cheery.

[Thurhame]

@HD: you still haven't answered my question. What made you so sure scum is me rather than Beli?

[Thurhame]

Cheery has pretty much slipped under the radar every day.

Scum love to do this.

[Thurhame]

So hm. It's either BMMVCTT or BMMVCCC and it's very difficult to tell which is which.

Without any information, odds would be >97% BMMVCTT to <3% BMMVCCC. So unless you have some pretty overwhelming evidence in favor of Town-Beli, I'd say BMMVCTT is a pretty safe bet.

[Thurhame]

But I'm not sure why you're assuming it can't be BMM

T

CCC.

[Thurhame]

b) You were pushing an actual lynch in MYLO, whereas he wasn't; that's indicative of scum trying to rush endgame.

Or, it's indicative of the overwhelming evidence in favor of scum-Beli.

Also, I retracted my vote once I realized No Lynch potentially wasn't completely useless.

p-edit @Beli: What in the world are you talking about? It was never 2/6. HD is confirmed non-Mafia. The only reason we're in a better position now than yesterday is because the scum were complete idiots.

[Thurhame]

Now that everyone's popped in,

Accusation count

• (3)
  Cheery Dog:
  Belisarius, Human Destroyer, Thurhame
  (2)
  Belisarius:
  Thurhame, Cheery Dog
  (2)
  Thurhame:
  Belisarius, Human Destroyer
  (0)
  ac1983fan:
  
  

unsure of one target: Cheery Dog
unsure of both targets: ac1983fan

[Thurhame]

AC, you're the tiebreaker. Me or Beli. Go read us carefully and make your decision. I want this game to be over.

[Thurhame]

How are you applying Shaheed's Law here?

[Thurhame]

Not sure how that applies since the tiebreaker is today.

[Thurhame]

What's going to happen is ac1983fan is going to choose which lynch to support, which will win or lose the game for us.

[Thurhame]

And it just goes to show, no matter how good your scumhunting is, it's meaningless if you can't convince others.

But seriously, HOW could you guys see that as a scumslip?

[Thurhame]

Hm, ok, I'll have to watch that. *makes note "don't come off as bossy"*

I'd like that explanation from Safety now.

[Thurhame]

I probably wouldn't have been nearly as suspicious of Beli if I hadn't just come out of my own first real (as in not replaced-in-near-end-of-game) game as scum, where my attitude was very similar to what I saw in Beli this game.

Of course, PoE makes that moot. Townhunting beats Scumhunting any day.

[Thurhame]

^this

Everyone makes mistakes. As long as he learns from it, it's fine.