Open 480 - C9++ Game Over!

[Apozzle]

Boop.

Vote: Cheery Dog

I'm not much of a dog person.

[Apozzle]

Eh. Implosion's case does seem to be based on a gut feeling, though. His 'explanation' is that he has a seemingly arbitrary feeling that (on this particular occasion) Cub's behaviour is scummy (although it isn't something that he generally considers scummy). So, yea, that is pretty much entirely gut.

Not keen on Cheery supporting the relatively flimsy case against Cub so fervently, so I'll leave my vote where it is and declare it no longer random.

[Apozzle]

Oh there we go. I was wondering how long it would take before people raised questions about my activity. I've been hyperlurking because I've been writing back to back midterms this week and couldn't take the time out to put together a long post like I wanted to. That is forthcoming sometime in the next 48ish hours. In the meantime I will try to make some shorter posts.

What I want to say right now is that, given that I posted almost immediately at the start of the game and have only made one post since, I feel as if people should have started questioning my status sooner. I would have thought my lurkerness would make me a pretty questionable character (at least to some of you). It looks to me like there is some frownable tunneling going on here.

Furthermore, my "real" vote for Cheery had a very weak basis at the time that I made it, so I'm removing it for now. It was, in reality, mostly just a vote for vote's sake. A spur of the moment thing. I'll replace it later after I've written up my analysis and reevaluted its validity.

Unvote.

[Apozzle]

Apozzle:
Expecting to be found scummy and pointing that out? Sounds kind of scummy.

I'm honestly curious about it. I was AWOL for three days before somebody noted it (and even then, the posts were mild). I don't consider ignoring such an extended absence to be in the best interests of town, and when there are facts I prefer to make statements about them.

[Apozzle]

I'm starting to think Implosion was right. You do overreact.

[Apozzle]

...And I watched him scoot around on the site elsewhere at will for those 6 hours as well.

Also, just want to point out that that comes off as

kind of creepy.

[Apozzle]

@Apozzle Just wondering, now that you're here and active are you planning on contributing any thought or read?

"Nothing I've said has not been relevant." & "Read what I said when I broke my inactivity streak."

@Apozzle: When there's someone who's not even posted once, a mere lurker can indeed slide under the radar.

That might be what happened, but it isn't what should have happened. An unconfirmed player is irritating, but nothing can be done about it in the context of the game - all that can be done is request a prod. A player who is confirmed but lurking is different: there are an array of valid actions in reponse.

[The point I was originally making was not about my absence - that was catalytic, but not the focus - but rather about seeming tunneling. Apparent sacrifice of breadth of analysis in favour of depth. A concern of mine about the state of the game at the time. The misinterpretation seems to be that it was some sort of self-deprecating attempt to make it seem like I cared about the fact that I was lurking? Frankly, I don't and I didn't. If I could go back I would do the exact same thing, because I had valid reason to do so. But, fine. People will also interpret what I just said as a similar technique. They will also interpret that previous sentence the same way (and so on). But that is beside the point, and there's not much of use in my continuing attempts to convince people (I suppose the issue is one of self-reference in my original point - intellectually interesting, but not really all that useful in advancing the game)]

Is being creepy a town or scum action? (or null?)

In this case? I'd lean towards that apparent stalkerness being town indicative. That kind of player pursuit feels too extreme for scum action.


The NS affair is a mess. Belisarius, I agree that lynching him now because of his meta will advance the game the least, but if he does have an unpleasant meta, then having him alive as the game draws to a close will not benefit town - it will make analysis more difficult. Later, it might become a good idea to remove him preemptively. I'm not sure what to think of your "other reason".

GM's reasons for voting NS seem relative - I can see why you would have those reasons, but I don't really feel them myself. Except for the active lurking. That is blatant. And my vote isn't doing anything else right now, so maybe it can give NS some attention.

Vote: NS

[Apozzle]

Tch. NS is an easy vote? Not really. The meta argument makes it significantly harder to lynch him. Also, if you carefully take a few minutes to read those two lines I wrote about GM's reasoning, you might be able to understand what I actually said, instead of making things up or employing esoteric methods of extracting ethereal meaning from the interstices dividing my words. I'm not sure what kind of arcane ritual you gentlemen employed to read that message from what I said, but I can assure you that anything you heard was almost certainly just the wind.

[Apozzle]

ac skipped a bit with that paraphrasing, but from what I understand from complicated words such as "unpleasant meta" and "remove him preemptively" you are proposing a Day 1 policy lynch on NS? (this is where the easy lynch comes from) I feel where this is drawing criticism is that your language use seems to draw some sort of conflicted position, but you vote him anyway (this is where the distancing part comes in). Does that sound reasonable?

There's two different parts to the NS case.

The first is the meta case, which seems to be the thing discussed most. I specifically said that lynching him over that now wouldn't achieve anything, but that later it might be necessary. I was not proposing a policy lynch at this time.

The second is the active lurking, which is why I voted for him. I stated that, of the reasons GM posted for voting him, only the lurking was absolute. The others seemed to be based on personal experience and feelings, and were not something I could use myself. The active lurking however is enough. Using my vote to attempt to push him into acting more is acceptable use in my opinion.

[Apozzle]

My interpretation from what people were saying was that his meta was being hard to read and unhelpful. While lurking might be included in that, it isn't the entire thing.

[Apozzle]

Yeah, okay, I read back over everything. What was being said was mostly that he was hard/impossible to read. That is what I was referring to when discussing his meta. My posts probably look a lot less consistent if you do in fact just consider his meta to be active lurking.

[Apozzle]

Someone's likely to hit scum in RVS. Why not me?

Why not you indeed. Whether or not NS is scum is irrelevant here - my point isn't solely that you're voting the same person that you voted in RVS. It's that your reasons, rather than feeling like genuine attempts to scumhunt, feel like extensions of your RVS vote - that is,

excuses

to keep your vote on NS without having to look elsewhere.

Are you satisfied with NS's responses?

Not really, but two things. First of all, I've found NS historically difficult to read. Second of all, I found a better reason to vote for someone (namely, you).

Seems to me we left RVS around post 20 or so.
I'd say we left RVS at 47

No. "Leaving RVS" is not a concrete post. It's a fluid transition, and trying to find a single post that ends RVS is absolutely useless with respect to... y'know, finding scum?

Nope. I have only weak townreads (on you and implosion, for trying to end RVS) at this stage.

This is a really bad reason to townread me (and people in general, but

especially

me). I actually used to (I don't anymore) make a point as scum to look helpful in getting out of RVS. Wanting to get out of RVS isn't exclusive to town.

It seemed productive to me, or at least potentially so, so it didn't ping my scumdar. In any case, you've clearly been posting content since. You're making a huge stretch implying that my response to NS is fake because I didn't respond to you the same way.

Fair enough.

I'm going to withhold an actual read on NS in light of me misreading him in the past. He has a meta which certain people are very, very good at cracking. I am not one of those people (although I've only played with him once or twice).

I've never been able to read NS.

Someone's likely to hit scum in RVS. Why not me?

Why you? What makes you so special?

Nope. I have only weak townreads (on you and implosion, for trying to end RVS) at this stage.

I find it highly ridiculous that one would have any read whatsoever on anyone at page 2 of a game.

Are you satisfied with NS's responses?

Not really, but two things. First of all, I've found NS historically difficult to read. Second of all, I found a better reason to vote for someone (namely, you).

If NS plays anything like he used to, then well, I don't think anyone can read him.

My point is that

in this specific situation

, I believe that your prodding at NS is a product of you not wanting to do genuine scumhunting on other people, so that you can keep your vote passively on him.

I came to this conclusion by looking at your prodding and deciding that it didn't look genuine, or that it looked like excuses to not move your vote rather than questions that you sincerely want to know the answers to.

It's as simple as that.

I think this is grasping at straws.

I just read your iso and failed to come up with any kind of reason to vote me.

Would you [like] to provide some reasoning now?

Out of your seven posts, one has content. It consisted of an OMGUS vote that you described as RVS well past RVS (IMO). You've done literally nothing else. I see no reason to move my vote.

hahahahaahahahahaha people still say omgus. ~nothing ever changes, not even this forum~

It's as simple as that.

Okay, I understand your case now. I would simplify it further as "gut". Fair?

Insofar as every case ever made by anyone in the history of the game of mafia can be simplified to "gut," fair.

This; although we can use logical arguments and some info from power roles, ultimately all cases are based on some level of "gut."

my CD vote

I don't think that abbreviation is going to work in this game...

Oh, merde

Monsieur!

Am I the only one now picturing implosion with a top hat and monocle?

Not any more

You "trolled". NS did nothing. How are you drawing an equivalency here?

Because trolling and doing nothing are functionally equivalent? Also, NS ALWAYS does nothing. He's almost as completely useless as I am (almost.)

Ai, sorry for being tardy to the party, full time jobs and time zones will do that sort of thing.

You! I remember you. You play good.

Hang on, why FOS instead of putting you're vote there? In fact, why would you not, unless you're actually worried about a wagon forming and not wanting to vote your scum buddy

VOTE: : pieceofpecanpie

calm your horses bro

Here he is voting me for "busing" NS:

bussing

I would write my post now, but my computer won't charge, so I'm saving the battery for more important things... no offense to you guys.
In other words, I'm stuck to phone posting.

Posting from phones is, while not simple, possible, and if one is town one should be willing to deal with the frustration (I have)

Okay implosion, explain how it makes sense. Since I've overreacted to SafetyDance then you must be with him all the way on his logic

Absolutely not. You can overreact to a completely terrible case. Me saying you overreacted has absolutely no bearing on my opinion of the case in question. I

haven't actually read safetydance

and i'm busy at the moment but i'll read him later.

(emphasis mine)
what

Everyone if safety flips scum I'd look to implosion as a partner.

what

I think (which is why I mentioned it) that FOS are weak excuses from players who don't wish to vote but want to appear like they are scum-hunting to throw fake reads out there. As town, you're only ability in this game is to vote, so no, I don't see any town-motivation to not vote someone. Especially this early in the game.

Dumb. Voting is the only power the town has - but with great power comes great responsibility. And sometimes the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. And I think this is the start of a beautiful friendship.
(Seriously though conservative voting is a completely legitimate playstyle which I myself use; I prefer to

ask questions

let the smart people ask questions first; shoot later.)

This may be premature, but it seems to me that Cub and Zaicon are the same alignment. I'm much less willing to lump SafetyDance into that grouping, but it's possible.

premature and foolish

This may be premature, but it seems to me that Cub and Zaicon are the same alignment. I'm much less willing to lump SafetyDance into that grouping, but it's possible.

And what makes you say that?

And like that...

[imgIMAGEREMOVEDBECAUSEREASONS/img]

..he's gone

You gave him six hours bro.

ac, anything you wanna say? I don't see you reading the thread right now...

Maybe you should give me a couple of gosh darn minutes to go through the 7 pages??

Anyway yeah skimmed and these are just my initial reactions. Gonna try to fix my email settings now.

Okay, then maybe we can clear things up:

I don't support lynching him today

just

because he is difficult to read.
I also don't support

refusing

to lynch him because he is difficult to read.

I consider voting him because of his lurking acceptable, because it is generally scummy behaviour. He should not get a free pass because "he always does it". If that is the policy when you play with him, then you give him an advantage whenever he is scum.

[Apozzle]

EBWOP: Oh bugger. I did not mean to post all those quotes.

[Apozzle]

Welcome HD. You already have a higher post count than your predecessor. Good job. I can tell we are going to be friends.

[Apozzle]

Welcome HD. You already have a higher post count than your predecessor. Good job. I can tell we are going to be friends.

Wow, good job ignoring questions asked directly of you

Apozzle, do you have any thoughts yet on ac983fan, Belisarius, or Zaicon?

Ooh a good vote

VOTE: Apozzle

Actually, it is not. My post was obviously token activity to avoid a prod.

I am halfway through rereading everyone right now - I just wanted to point out an instance of how ac rolls.

[Apozzle]

Soo. To start I guess:

Unvote.

It took me far too long to get through all this material - I started working through everything on Friday and people just keep posting, and I kept having to go back and reevalute things (jerks). I would apologize for the following medium sized post, but I really do not care.

Cub

So far, most of Cub's behaviour consistently makes a lot of sense to me - I can't really find much issue with the logic behind his movements. The only weird thing is that none of his responses to what I've done have indicated even the least bit of suspicion, regardless of how confusing it was for others. Maybe we have been following similar thought processes in this game or something like that (maybe it is that we have played together and he sees consistency with that instance). He has said he has a reason, so okay. Other than that, I can see nothing from him that I feel stands up as being scummy under scrutiny. I can honestly say that I believe Cub to be town right now.

goodmorning

Maybe he does, I can't speak for him.

And yet... you seem to be trying to.

I really do not get the strong townread on Safety, and it seems so strange how defensive of him she appears. I am pretty sure that I do not like the "avoiding presenting evidence because scum might use it later" argument. Quite a few of her posts seem to include weird passages - appeals to... I do not know what, but something. Things like this:

You should obviously sheep me, I keep forgetting this game exists.

HEY WHOA

THAT TUNNEL WAS COMPLETELY JUSTIFIED

CASES ARE SO GODDAMNED BORING AND I CAN'T DO ANY MORE RIGHT NOW

Feel like they are designed as some kind of disarming tactic. I have scumfeels about GM.

implosion

Posts 0-122

His case on Cub was weak, and his reactions to POP during this time strike me as being somewhat empty of content. But, it was early in the game, so I can benefit of doubt that for now.

Posts 317-

The feeling of his posts changes after he returns from his extended absence (which, as an aside, was hilariously punctuated with three days of apology posts). His case against PPP actually feels strong. But I have concerns about the Safety opinion: how does your absolute stance against day one partner hunting gel with a town read on Safety given his accusations of people being scum buddies with NS?

I am feeling some towniness from implosion right now. Hopefully he will answer that above question, and unless his answer is ridiculous I have no further beef with him today.

pieceofpecanpie

I am somewhat on the fence about PPP (actually, what is your preferred abbreviation? I've seen a few different ones being used here). I see two major patterns here: (1) Some/many of his reactions are over the top... (yes, he overreacts a lot of the time). Originally, I read this entirely as he was not responding carefully (not scummy in my opinion). But from another perspective, it could also look more like he is trying to come off as confident - a strategy of (in one case literally) shouting down his opponents. (2) He is careful with his vote. Only voted twice, and there is no inherent weakness in the cases of the people he votes for.

Basically, PPP comes off as belligerent, but cautious in voting. And I really do not know what to say about that behaviour in terms of scum/town. I feel like it can go either way, and I cannot make an early call because I have not played with him before and it is really a personality thing.

Cheery Dog

I did not agree with the early game vote on Cub, but the rest of his votes and posts seem town-oriented. Really, I do not see any way I can form a scum argument without going WIFOM at this point. So I think I must tentatively declare a town read on Cheery.

SafetyDance

Posts 1-132

Safety was an easy lynch. He looked all over the place vis-a-vis the NS' scumbuddy crap, which should have made it easy to push a lynch on him.

Posts 215-

So why does the wagon end up breaking? Why did he not get pushed to L-1? His behaviour feels different immediately after the absence. Everything suddenly seems well-reasoned and logical, and yeah... that is enough to break a wagon really. Cub is still fighting him because of that thing, but Safety seems to be backing off of it a little.

Safety will/should not get lynched today. Partly because of the dusk-VLA (which is really frustrating, by the way) makes it too risky to push a wagon on him, partly because there are other valid targets. However, he is the person I would be most interested in seeing flip, because I think it would give us a lot of information to work with. I will not give a town/scum read either way on him at this point.

Belisarius

Your opinion of Safety does not appear to have changed given current events. You said earlier that you would have me if you could not have Safety, and as I just said: really not looking like you will get Safety today. Although, I have to say I cannot actually see you making any case for me being scum anywhere. You just threw me out as your second choice.

Beli's comments mostly seem reasonable in a town frame (couple of weird exceptions like that comment about having other-game reason to believe NS was town). He did the same thing that I did in terms of pointing out that he was doing something scummy, and I cannot really comment on that since I did it too. I am feeling some gut though and I cannot find what is triggering it in his posts. So I think I will hold off for now on trying to give a read one way or the other.

Nobody Special

It's been a long, busy weekend. This is a prod-dodge promising real content tomorrow.

A whole lotta banging on the keyboard and almost no substance. Amazing, really.

NS is just so pro at fulfilling those content promises. Whatever. He is still active lurking. He is still getting a pass on it. Fine. Whatever. For the sake of completion I will just quote what I said earlier, which still stands.

I don't support lynching him today just because he is difficult to read.
I also don't support refusing to lynch him because he is difficult to read.
I consider voting him because of his lurking acceptable, because it is generally scummy behaviour. He should not get a free pass because "he always does it". If that is the policy when you play with him, then you give him an advantage whenever he is scum.

He is not going to get lynched today because of the ridiculous meta argument which has been discussed to death (courtesy of me hating it). If he does not pick it up on Day 2, then you better bloody well murder him.

ac1983 fan

ac has some of the longest posts... which are almost entirely quotes. So many of the things he posted turned out to not be actual content. For some reason I thought that he looked town before I actually ISO'd his posts. After his initial posts (and even those barely qualify) I cannot find any real reads on people who he is not voting for at the time (other than Safety - he makes a noncommital comment about him looking scummy at one point). He is either tunneling, or doing... something else? I have some light scumfeels... scumtickles... scum-inklings.

Edosurist

It is Wednesday and he has not added anything yet. But I seem him there in the user list! UPDATE: He posted! Hurrah!

He voted and unvoted Safety at acceptable times, and that is really all. His other comments read as fairly passive town. Actually, he seems all around to be a passive player (at least in comparison to some of the other people here) and note I did not say reactive, I said passive: he is not aggressive about anything, he is not really ruffling feathers. Have to say null for now.

Zaicon

When Zaicon posts, it is solid. That is all I can say right now. Tough to read the lower activities, but what he has posted is good. He can go in the tentative town pile for now.

Messiah/Human Destroyer

Messiah. Damn it. He managed to make one post the entire time, and it was a vote on Safety. He gave no information about that spot. All of my frustration is directed at him (except for the 100% of my frustration which is directed at NS).

HD replaced in. His first content post was jumping on the me-wagon. All subsequent posts seem to have revolved around me. He seems to be riding what looks like an easy wagon for the last hours of day. Totally scumfeels.

---

And there we go. That is all I have. A

CURRENT

summary of my

TENTATIVE

feelings:

Towny Pile: Cub, implosion, Cheery, Zaicon.
Null Pile: PPP, Safety, Belisarius, Edosurist.
Scummy Pile: GM, ac1983 fan, HD.
Screw-This Pile: NS.

And I will add my vote to the GM pile:

Vote: goodmorning.

[Apozzle]

Flattery will get you everywhere, Susan. I am glad one whole person acknowledged my post. The rest of you are jerks.

Attrition: that is the game at this point.

Typically I am reluctant to lynch without a claim, other people probably have the same feeling, and we need time to declare intent, get a claim, and evaluate it. But if this keeps going, we will not have that luxury. So, as I see it, the best scum tactic right now is to do as little as possible in these final hours. Town will panic, and if we do not lynch badly then we will likely fail to lynch altogether. However the die falls, scum can apologize later for not being around to push things in the right direction and it will look totally reasonable.

I see delaying tactics from GM.
I see classic NS posting fuck all.
Beli's choice now is just to deadline lynch, apparently.
And ac has practically excused himself for the rest of the day.

I am hoping Safety returns. I am hoping implosion finds the time to weigh in.

---

I should address Susan's "intent to L-1/request to claim" thing. And this is how I will address it:

I agree with it. Less than 36 hours to go now. If you put me in the same position, I would claim. Having evaluated the possible outcomes from my own perspective, I have concluded that the best move from a town player would be to acquiesce to such a demand to prevent the game becoming gridlocked at the end of the day and to potentially break a bad wagon. Furthermore, it might end up being the only chance I would get. I do not believe GM's refusal to be in the best interests of town.

[Apozzle]

I agree.

[Apozzle]

We have a claim. Mission accomplished.

You are still two votes away, so by all means go ahead.

[Apozzle]

That was L-1, yes?

This is exactly what I expected. Disgustingly predictable.

[Apozzle]

I was hoping that we would lynch GM before it happened. I expected a push on my wagon closer to the end. No appeal, just pissed.

Wondering whether I should claim now or wait until someone declares intent to whatever?

[Apozzle]

I am in class for the next 3.5 hours but I will try to check back in ~2.

[Apozzle]

Mason.

[Apozzle]

Wondering whether I should claim now or wait until someone declares intent to whatever?

I think you should only claim now if we can't gauge enough willingness to lynch GM by deadline.

I am in class for the next 3.5 hours but I will try to check back in ~2.

Apozzle, I recommend you don't claim unless forced.

Apozzle, please let these fine people know why they need to unvote you.

This is a conversation between the two of us, in thread, which starts with me literally asking for Cub to consent to my claiming, and ends with him literally giving me the word to claim. If you did not realize that we were partnered, I feel sorry for you.

If you ISO us, you might also notice that each of us pretty much refuses to entertain the idea of the other being scum.

If you are

insane

, you might have noticed Cub's mason references. Seriously, those are awesome. Who would ever get those references? Give the man a bloody medal for that.

[Apozzle]

Been dealing with other games, and have a lot to do these next couple of days. I will get back here with what Cub and I discussed last night soon.

Just wanted to say there is no way I am reading your walls, HD. Policy refusal.

[Apozzle]

Stuff is going to be in shorter bursts because I forgot this week existed.

I'll explain why I claimed explicitly. Just not today. I thought about it carefully.

So, I guess since some bastard murdered Cub the first thing I can do is fulfil this promise from him. Not allowed to quote from the QT but it basically boils down to: 1) obvious, 2) creating inefficient but necessary kills for the scum, 3) narrowing down the PR target list.

---

Why am I supposed to be making a case against you, Beli? This seems like an interesting path for the game to take, but I had you as null yesterday. Do you think my opinion of you has changed since then for some reason?

Oh, you want to see if I

can

. Why would that be? Because you need the confirmed town to fail to do so in order to lend you credibility? I think you should try to appear town on the basis of your actions instead. But maybe that is pretty hard for you in this game... for some reason?

[Apozzle]

The way I see it, I only need the one reason that I already provided.

The way I see it, I am not the one on trial here. In fact, I am the one that is the least on trial here! So, I will do the question asking. You can do the question answering.

Vote: Belisarius

Man up or get lynched. You can start by providing your mystery reasons.

[Apozzle]

Beli, eventually you have to stop with the cagey bullshit. I do not know what game you are trying to play, and I do not care. You need to put an end to it.

---

So. I pretty much agree with a lot of what Safety is saying. Much of what he has said either agrees with what I have been reading. Safety is inching ever further into townier territory.

I was suspicious of HD during day one, and between his "Super Awesome Day One Reread Funtime", his misdirection, his self-WIFOMing, and his self-meta arguments, my suspicion has only grown. Basically, he was scummy when he was doing nothing, and he is scummier now that he has opened his mouth.

Vote: HD

[Apozzle]

EBWOP: Wow, did I gramatically butcher that middle bit or what? I think I tried to write the same thing twice in there.

[Apozzle]

Okay, NS. Is this really what you are doing now? I feel like you are not even trying to do

anything

anymore. You promised more today, but you were honestly providing more content during day one. I do not understand how you have grown worse.

[Apozzle]

So, the story is that I had an extraordinary amount of work this last week-and-a-half, and the posts that I made were the best I could do in the free time I had. Sorry everyone.

Unvote.

SafetyDance

Safety's reaction to my claim (and his behaviour leading up to it) was probably one of the few reactions that did not feel weird, because it was consistent with his suspicion of Cub - it utterly made sense for him to behave in that way. I do not really see anything from him today that I find scummy, and a lot of what he has been saying is stuff that makes sense to me. He seems to be hunting. Cub was at least starting to lean town on him last night too.

Cheery Dog

Only thing Cheery has really done is make a typo? Not really feeling that as an argument to lynch. He might be a bit jumpy in terms of votes. The content of his posts does not look scummy as far as I can tell.

Nobody Special

Either he is scum, or he is town not playing to win. His posts today have had a distinct taste of not trying, and it sucks (especially given his promises that he would produce more content today). If you are town, you should have replaced out rather than act this way.

Predit: Oh and now you claim a fucking PR? THAT IS GREAT!

implosion

Not really seeing anything that makes implosion look particularly scummy today. Leaning more towards town now.

pieceofpecanpie

I find it odd that he managed to both be one of the major supporters of a GM lynch and never voted for GM at the same time. Having a hard time seeing town or scum through how vitriolic his posts can be. Basically, my read on him has not really changed since I last gave a read on him.

ac1983 fan

What was up with suggesting other lynches with less than an hour to go day one? That seems completely forced to me, particularly considering how often we were discussing how little time there was left. He also started in with this "worst at mafia" bit today.

Scum need to be cold and calculating; but Beli is not being cold and calculating.

No, that is plain wrong. For one thing, the behaviour a person presents in the game is not necessarily their actual behaviour (ie. the fact that Beli's behaviour does not look calculated does not mean it is not calculated). For another, scum do not need to be anything. Also, considering you are neither of those things, this somewhat looks like a roundabout way of saying you are town.

Still getting scummy feelings from ac.

Belisarius

The more I read from Beli, the more I feel like he is trying to hide. He avoided presenting reasons to vote me, he avoided presenting reasons to not vote GM, and he keeps going in with this stupid gambitty bullshit. Cub did not like his expression of doubt about the claim or his annoyance at Cub claiming. His vote on Cheery is terrible - his sole reason appears to be a typo and he does not seem to make any effort to provide a more comprehensive case.

Beli is moving from null to scum.

Human Destroyer

I already said all I really need to say about HD. His reread walls were obvious in my opinion - intended to give the appearance of providing content without providing content, but nobody really bought it so he dropped it quickly. And now he does not want to provide a summary of reads, even though it is highly beneficial to do so. His argument with Safety is really quite awful for reasons I previously brought up.

Zaicon

He remains consistent with what I said about him in 390: posts are solid, when he makes them. So I guess I still feel that he is pretty town.

Edosurist

Not really seeing much case to call him scum personally. GM's #1 scumread but I do not understand why. Cub did not like how he showed up to act remorseful after the hammer dropped on GM, but up until then had found him relatively towny. And there is nothing new that I can see that screams scum. So, is there something I am missing here? I guess that maybe all the promises of getting around to the game might seem scummy in a "if you cannot really commit to the game then replace out" kind of way?

---

Towny Pile: implosion, Cheery, Zaicon, Safety.
Null Pile: PPP, Edosurist.
Scummy Pile: ac1983 fan, HD, Belisarius
For-Fucks-Sake Pile: NS.

Not really a whole lot of change from last time. Safety moved up, Beli moved down. NS is still pissing me off.

---

NS's claim cannot be confirmed easily. If there is even one more PR, then scum have a roleblocker. The only thing that would even give us an idea of whether NS is telling the truth is if we kill that particular scum, or if he roleblocks his way into giving us scum to lynch.

If we lynch him and he flips scum, it might give us some information (focused mainly around people who were defending him because of meta during day one). If we lynch him and he flips town, we just killed a PR and it tells us relatively little because he interacted very little (and the meta argument becomes null at that point). The only thing we will have is wagon analysis.

While I can see how this could be a scum gambit, I feel more as if I would rather give him the benefit of the doubt for another day.

On the other hand, players like HD and Beli have had relatively more interaction with everyone. I believe that their flips will tell us a lot more.

[Apozzle]

His claim basically means that scum have a RB too. Straight up WIFOM. If he is a town PR then wtf play this way? Or better yet, why not use your power? GM dead, two masons, plus yourself, that's in 1/9 chance of hitting killing scum, a lot better than 1/11 if it was just a lynch and no other claims.

Still, if you think having him around another day would help, back to HD

Vote: HumanDestroyer

If he was scum, why not use his power because, by the same reasoning, he might hit a town PR? He could make a defensible argument for using it on most people.

If he was scum why play this way? It has not just been active lurking today. It is straight up anti-playing.

The WIFOMness is kind of my point: no way right now to judge the veracity of the claim, and my personal opinion is that the risk may outweigh the benefits at this time. I choose the tactical lynch - the lynch that I believe benefits town the most - and I do not feel NS is the tactical lynch. That is my opinion. If people do not agree with it I would rather they do not change your vote - the fact that I am confirmed town does not make me right.

[Apozzle]

I am not saying no to lynching NS today because of only information. I am weighing the various factors to determine whether I believe he is the best lynch. Information is one of those factors.

Furthermore, you are not showing that it should be discounted as a factor in decision making. You are displaying a singular case in which using it as a factor lead to the wrong conclusion. If you show me 100 cases in which using information gain as a factor lead to defeat or serious damage to town, then I will consider the evidence significantly overwhelming to discount it and support an NS lynch today.

[Apozzle]

Okay. I am struggling to accept the possibility that HD would

forget his role

and accidentally claim VT. Seriously, who does that?

[Apozzle]

I really dislike the conclusion that HD is playing in so many games that he cannot keep the most basic elements of those games straight. And there are a lot of ways that he could be screwing with us, but they do not seem to fit with his personality.

I have no problem with lynching Beli. I had no preference between him and HD. Although I stated that the two of them were better lynches, the wagon on HD was the choice of everyone else.

Vote: Belisarius

[Apozzle]

I would be uncomfortable with a lynch on Thurhame today since he just replaced in.

I do not think we will get a claim from Edo before the deadline.

I was really feeling HD/Beli as possible scum... not really sure where to go now.

[Apozzle]

All of the claims have been "a lynch is inevitable so I will just claim now instead of waiting" claims. It is very likely that one of them is fake. It is most likely that NS is a fake claim. The current context makes NS more likely to be scum.

I will vote Edo if necessary.

[Apozzle]

Going to just leave my vote on Edo since I am not seeing anything else happening today.

Vote: Edosurist

[Apozzle]

Oh fuck this.

Doctor and did not protect Cub when he had claimed mason and was one of the most productive players in the game? You better be lying.

[Apozzle]

I saw your comparison between how Beli was playing and how you played in N1318, Thurhame. Unfortunately I died shortly after you joined so I never really got my say in on you. You clearly were not playing how I had seen you play as scum. However, I might have been a little suspicious of you because it looked like you might have been being going for the exact polar opposite playstyle - you were coming on so strongly that it looked a little like you might be trying to hide something.

Still, accepting Beli as town required a lot of benefit of the doubt given that his claim put town at 7 PRs (noting that all the other roles were basically confirmed). I know back on day two I was talking about giving the PRs the benefit of the doubt and letting them live for another night, but if you are scum and about to get lynched then you can only benefit from fake claiming, so they become less and less valid as time goes on. And HD not being killed might have also been something to take note of - while dead I figured out that if Beli was scum then they would know that HD could not be an SK and thus would not be a guaranteed kill as was being discussed at the time. If I had still been alive I would have come down hard on Beli, so I suppose it was a good thing for scum that I was not alive.

Well anyway, despite the hiccups, it was a good game. And well modded too - thanks Gamma.

[Apozzle]

I do not believe that Safety was playing contrary to his win condition. I think he tried to perform a truly awful gambit and failed in a spectacular fashion. I have no intention of holding that against him.