Newbie 1345: Mafia in a Bind (Game Over)

[NicCage]

Glad to meet you all
I am slowly catching up
Nice fake hammer Xeg

[NicCage]

Okay, first thing's first, this trolling needs to stop. It isn't necessarily scummy in this situation, but it is most definitely anti-town.

Mutley I find null. I thought he was town after his conversation with Xeg, but then continues to be disruptive and antagonizing towards Xiao. Definitely not a pro-town behavior, but I'll chalk it up as playstyle until I see something else.

Xiao is being equally antagonistic, in fact I'm pretty sure that he started part 2 of their argument by calling mutley a cunt. So why continue being disruptive?

Pretty sure that if Mutley is mafia, Xiao is as well.
1) wanting him to be replaced instead of lynched (maybe a new scummate would be less likely to get lynched because less abrasive playstyle)
2) calling out the fake hammer before Mutley could react to it
3) talking to him now, actively trying to make him act less scummy

Sounds like he's trying to do everything in his power to make sure Mutley doesn't get lynched


if Mutley isn't mafia though I don't know what to think

It might be because of this post. It looks to me like Xiao might have been reacting to being called out on buddying by distancing himself further from Mutley.

However, if Mutley isn't scum, then I'd say that originally Xiao was trying to avoid responsibility for such an early mislynch, but after that ordeal was over continued fighting so that he could claim that he was voting Mutley for being annoyed with him, which Xiao states a couple times.
Spadille's case was awful, but I'm going to stick with his vote for right now.

I'm also leery of the slimer, mainly because I can't see the motivation for either side. I see some fluff posts and some IC posts, but the scumhunting is tough to pull out of them. I see some things that could be scumhunting, but I don't see any strong opinion's behind them. Yeah I read the wall post, but there isn't a ton of push and shove in it. So theslimer, who exactly are your scumreads?

P-edit, tired of making posts need to do homework. I see you posted slimer, so I apologize if you already answered my question.

[NicCage]

Wow, that was longer than I thought.

@NicCage: do you think Xiao's forcefulness is his playstyle or do you think of it as more of a scumtell?

I think it's more of a scumtell considering how long it has been going on. He understands that this behavior is anti-town since he called Mutley out on it, but continued to do it.

Xiao is being equally antagonistic, in fact I'm pretty sure that he started part 2 of their argument by calling mutley a cunt. So why continue being disruptive?
It might be because of this post. It looks to me like Xiao might have been reacting to being called out on buddying by distancing himself further from Mutley.

That's a pretty big leap, and considering how others besides Mutley had fallen into the spotlight, wouldn't it make more sense for scum-me to go with the group?

However, if Mutley isn't scum, then I'd say that originally Xiao was trying to avoid responsibility for such an early mislynch

Because we were less than ten pages in, why would we hammer someone that early? (though, looking back, I wish we had)

You're right, it is a big leap, because it requires both you and Mutley to be scum, which seems unlikely. Can you explain that point more? I don't really remember what I read that well yet.

I understand that, my point wasn't that it was scummy for you not to want Mutley lynched at that point. My point is that you are creating this big non-productive argument with Mutley and to me that argument seems to be the main basis for your vote on him.

[NicCage]

Yeah that doesn't make much sense.
MP5, if slimer is scum, who do you think his partner is?

[NicCage]

I was confused about who was in the spot light and what.scum you would be going with.

Yeah I might be wrong, I could see it being playstyle, but with the exception of mutley sheeping your points against him are the same as they were before the fake hammer. It just looks suspicious to me.

[NicCage]

Man it's like starting a new game

[NicCage]

I'm inclined to think that I had xiao and mutley turned around. I think that aggression was just playstyle and annoyance, and I think he was on to something VOTE: mutley.

[NicCage]

Who else do you have scumreads on Didi?

[NicCage]

Yeah I might be wrong, I could see it being playstyle, but with the exception of mutley sheeping your points against him are the same as they were before the fake hammer. It just looks suspicious to me.

I'm actually curious why this is suspicious. If my reason for voting him hasn't changed, isn't that less scummy since I've been consistent with my reasons? Idk, maybe others see it as scummy.

My thought was that it was scummy that you weren't confident enough to want Mutley lynched that early in the day, but did want him lynched later without picking up much extra information on why he was scum. I doubted that you had a satisfying amount of information on other players to have been alright with that decision as town. It's not about consistency, just lack of overall information.
It's not insanely scummy though, I can understand it from a town perspective too.

NicCage, if you indeed read Mutley and Xiao the wrong way around, why do you think this happened in the first place?

Xeg's interaction with Mutley made him seem town to me, plus Xeg's reasoning seemed convincing at the time. I though maybe Mutley just didn't know any better and that Xiao might have been provoking the fight. However, if Xiao could have been using the argument to unproductively divert attention then Mutley could have been doing the same; the quickhammer hidden in a joke seems to point that Mutley's trolling is intended to explain away any scummy actions.

[NicCage]

Oh, sorry MP5, I missed your question, but I think I answered it anyway.
@Mac, what was Didi's townslip?

The point about frog not unvoting or voting Mutley seems null to me.

Aside from Mutley, Didi is my highest suspect.

[NicCage]

Lol nice page grab. Now I finally understand Mac's "huh" from earlier.

[NicCage]

Actually I didn't

NicCage, what do you mean by "I had xiao and mutley turned around"? How do you know read Xiao in light of Muttley, and will this change whether Muttley flips town/scum?

I meant that I thought one of Xiao and Mutley was antagonistic by playstyle and the other by purpose. If Mutley flip's scum I would think that Xiao is town. If Mutley flips town then I would go back to my original point, though it wouldn't confirm Xiao as scum in my eyes.

[NicCage]

I've seen scum self lynch a couple times, though one was a ragequit. It's useful for scum not to make their partner hammer or not give up information, something like that. But yeah, what Mutley did was totally useless to us.

So yeah, it's lylo, sounds like you all realize it already, so just be careful with your vote.

I'm still leaning toward Didi being scum, and I'd still like mac to tell me what he thought Didi's towntell was.

[NicCage]

I don't think #419 is a strong towntell. Didi flips around a bunch on reads early D1 without really trying to follow through on any of them. He's sure Mutley is scum, then back off once Xeg and MP5 read him as town. MP5 makes a case on Didi, and Didi's defense is that he doesn't really know what he's doing. Ok, I can live with that.
But later in the day Didi sheeps MP5 and frog on slimer without any hesitation or scumhunting, he see's it as an easy lynch.
Onto D2, he stops Mac wanting a quicklynch, which is a town thing to do, but when he says he wants more information he doesn't go out and make any. All he does is pose a far fetched scenario. I think this is an attempt to pick up towncred while waiting out the inevitable Mutley lynch.

That said, Mac has been asserting some really weird stuff lately. The point about frog's voting was never valid, and he carried it far too long.
Also, how is Xiao telling you to vote him any different from what you just did? You're saying if he thinks you're mafia he should vote you, and that's exactly the argument he's making.

I didn't think Didi and Mac could be scum together though so I'll have to reassess my scumteam reads

[NicCage]

VOTE: Mac I think Xiao is right

[NicCage]

Because I've decided which way I want to go. I think Didi and Mac are the scumteam. It would have been stupid for town to immediately lynch Mutley on D2, so why would Mac even think that?
I think Mac and Didi planned that conversation so that Didi could pick up towncred and MP5 wouldn't push his lynch. Now MP5 is dead and Mac clears Didi as a townread, while pushing a shitty case against you.

[NicCage]

#419 is Didi's townslip.

I guess he didn't explicitly say Didi is town, but I think it was implied

[NicCage]

Sorry, real life calls sometimes.
Xiao I think you're town based on how you responded to my initial points against you and how you've generally tried to see both sides of an argument post-mutley. That reads to me like town who made a mistake and is learning from it.
I think frog is town based on PoE, you seem town and I have much stronger scumreads on Didi and Mac

[NicCage]

It's valid in that I think Mac is scum and I want him lynched. I'm not caught in anything, I made my own decision with my own reasons.

[NicCage]

That said, Mac has been asserting some really weird stuff lately. The point about frog's voting was never valid, and he carried it far too long.
Also, how is Xiao telling you to vote him any different from what you just did? You're saying if he thinks you're mafia he should vote you, and that's exactly the argument he's making.

I didn't think Didi and Mac could be scum together though so I'll have to reassess my scumteam reads

Because I've decided which way I want to go. I think Didi and Mac are the scumteam. It would have been stupid for town to immediately lynch Mutley on D2, so why would Mac even think that?
I think Mac and Didi planned that conversation so that Didi could pick up towncred and MP5 wouldn't push his lynch. Now MP5 is dead and Mac clears Didi as a townread, while pushing a shitty case against you.

No these are. These and the fact that you were confident that scum wouldn't quicklynch you

[NicCage]

Scum won't hammer me because you are scum.

Xiao didn't make a case in his vote post, he just said that you were right in that he should vote you if he's suspicious. I agreed with that, I thought you were scum and it was time for me to vote you.

If you were so sure that you couldn't be quickhammered because you found the scum then why didn't you vote Xiao?

[NicCage]

Wait.. what? Are you saying you didn't want your vote to look like OMGUS? I'm confused

[NicCage]

Oh okay, that post is clearer.
The thing is, that plan doesn't make any sense because it wouldn't prove anything. If you're scum and you vote him he won't be hammered. If he's scum then he still wouldn't be hammered. If you're scum and he votes you you you won't be hammered, if he's scum and he votes you you won't be hammered.
You were trying to frame it up like his vote on you would prove something so you could use that against him rather than just voting according to your suspicions against Xiao.

[NicCage]

Your position doesn't make sense, if either one of you were scum then no one was in danger of being quickhammered because it takes one town to vote a town and then two scum to hammer.

And that doesn't answer the question of why didn't you vote Xiao. If you thought he was scum, why withhold your vote? You weren't so picky with me.

You would encourage the quickhammer of Mutley because you knew you had the justification to do it, everyone wanted him lynched that day. If you were successful in getting him out of the way quickly you probably would have been under even less fire than you are now from putting him at L-1 because instead of ending the discussion without everyone's permission you would have had accomplices that quicklynched with you.

[NicCage]

Stop bringing up non-reasons as proof of your innocence

[NicCage]

The purpose of you wanting to quicklynch Mutley is to limit discussion, the purpose of you effectively hammering Mutley was to end the day early and limit discussion.

I know what your saying is wrong, even if you won't admit it. It's clear that you're going to stick to your guns and we aren't going to accomplish anything further on this point.

So everyone else, does Mac's "Xiao was planning to frame me" argument make sense?

[NicCage]

I'm absolutely baffled that you all think Xiao's vote on Mac could be a trap to PROVE that he is scum. It is mathematically impossible, I'm 100% serious.
In this situation let's pretend Xiao is scum. Xiao votes for Mac. This proves nothing about the alignment of either because Mac can't be quickhammered because there is only one nonvoting scum.
Similarly if Mac is scum and Xiao votes for him he won't be quickhammered. So no matter who is scum in this situation NO ONE WILL BE HAMMERED.
So if no one is hammered in either situation, the fact that no one gets hammered proves nothing, therefore there is no trap.
Does this make sense?

I don't think #419 is a strong towntell. Didi flips around a bunch on reads early D1 without really trying to follow through on any of them. He's sure Mutley is scum, then back off once Xeg and MP5 read him as town. MP5 makes a case on Didi, and Didi's defense is that he doesn't really know what he's doing. Ok, I can live with that.
But later in the day Didi sheeps MP5 and frog on slimer without any hesitation or scumhunting, he see's it as an easy lynch.
Onto D2, he stops Mac wanting a quicklynch, which is a town thing to do, but when he says he wants more information he doesn't go out and make any. All he does is pose a far fetched scenario. I think this is an attempt to pick up towncred while waiting out the inevitable Mutley lynch.

This is why I think you're scum Didi.

[NicCage]

But yeah Xiao, you're right in #531, but that is a possibility from your perspective, not from mine.
And that's an interesting point actually, you could be scum with Mac and your vote on him could be a gambit. But I seriously doubt that is the case.

[NicCage]

Why would a townie be convinced by that if it doesn't have any bearing on whether or not you or Xiao is scum? It still doesn't make sense.

[NicCage]

I'm not playing dumb, I'm saying that you're wrong. A townie wouldn't or shouldn't have been convinced by the argument you said you thought Xiao was going to make. If most people see you as scum then they would be voting you on the other merits of the case against you.

[NicCage]

It is not a possibility from my perspective because I know my own alignment.

I agree with that.

[NicCage]

An ISO of everyone? Okay, but you'll have to wait a little while for that.
Also, I never defended Xeg, I said that his interactions with Mutley made Mutley seem town and that I agreed with his reasons why.

As the only conf-town it's pretty much up to you to decide which one of us is scum, Xiao. If you pick right it'll be obvious from the lack of hammer, and if you pick wrong there will be a hammer.

[NicCage]

If I'm scum with Mac then why am I pushing him so hard?

[NicCage]

Real life is kicking my ass right now. Hopefully ISOs tomorrow, friday evening for sure.

[NicCage]

Okay so Xeg/Mac ISO
I've said most of my points against Mac already, but Xeg has some interesting points against him too
Early early game is normal stuff, null. He has a little fight with Didi over nothing, which isn't odd
for early game, but since I think the scumteam is Mac/Didi this reads to me like some early bussing/looking
like activity. Check out post #73 (someone teach me how to link please :3). The argument on Xeg's side starts
to get fairly heated.Though he doesn't have a strong point, Xeg puts a lot of pressure on Didi.
He drops that almost immediately to go after Mutley though, as does Didi. Xeg drops his case on Mutley though,
and says that he likes Mutley. To me this looks like an attempt to pick a town sheep, and it would have worked too had Xeg not been replaced.

Mac's D1 is a little sparse, jumps in with some reads, post #371, mostly stuff against Xiao and Mutley, but he votes slimer?
And he votes slimer based on post #63 with a really crummy reason. I encourage you to read it, because I see Mac jumping on to the largest bandwagon at the time for no good reason.
D2 wants to quicklynch Mutley to limit discussion, then pushes a non-reason against frog for awhile. Finally he revotes Mutley, knowing that Mutley would lynch himself.
I think he did this on purpose to limit discussion.
He then comes up D3 claiming town and appealing to fear of losing the game, which is a useless and unprovable argument. He then proceeds to push a crap case against Xiao, certain that Xiao is scum.
But if he's sure Xiao is scum, why not vote him? His reason that voting Xiao would have been a trap makes absolutely no sense, it couldn't have been a trap.
He claim Xiao is trying to frame him as a point against Xiao, and he says "scum won't hammer me because you are scum", which is a deliberate attempt to frame Xiao for his correct vote.
Notice he doesn't have any reservations against voting me, though he doesn't indicate any difference in certainty between Xiao being scum and me being scum. Why?
Because he knew my bad timing and Xiao's unvote would make me look scummy to town, and he finally had a better reason to push that he knew town might follow. No one was going to go for his case on Xiao.

This man is definitely scum.

[NicCage]

That took forever. I think I'll do Didi later tonight or tomorrow. And I guess I'll do Xiao after since you want to know why I think you're town and then frog. Those will be tomorrow.

I'm really interested in what you think Didi

[NicCage]

It's important to note that you pushed frog with a non-reason. Your case linking frog to Mutley didn't make sense whether Mutley was town or not. The reason you did it is because you wanted to waste time during the day accomplishing nothing, so you made up a reason to push frog with.

[NicCage]

That doesn't really make sense since it wouldn't have mattered whether or not frog voted Mutley, and he said he would have if slimer hadn't been hammered.
You weren't generating real discussion, even if Mutley had been scum your reason against frog didn't make sense and you still ended the day without investigating any other player. Didi put out the opinion that Mutley shouldn't be quicklynched, you disagreed, and Didi's position got more support. So instead you pretended to scumhunt for awhile and then ended the day once you felt that enough time had passed.

I was going to do a Didi ISO but my post #481 already says it all anyway.
I'd like to point out though that Mac and Didi both keep each other in mind as scum, but Mac after saying that Didi might be scum goes after frog instead.

So Xiao ISO:
Like most, fairly normal early game, he comes under pressure for pretty much no reason and doesn't react badly.
Gets into a mainly theory based argument with Xeg, which could be a way for one or both of them to not actually scumhunt.
Then Mutley pops up and turds around for awhile. In the begining Xiao brings up the idea of replacing Mutley and his first few posts are responding to Mutley's points rather than the anti-town arguments which come later.
This leads me to believe that on Xiao's end this argument was just a mistake made out of frustration.
Xiao's responses to my case against him seemed reasonable, seemed more like trying to understand rather than being overly defensive. His posts on Mac's point against frog read the same way, once Xiao got to the bottom of the point (post #454) he didn't continue to push it.
The level of activity that Xiao has had throughout the game points to town, and unvoting Mac (even though it left me hanging out to dry) is not a scum move.
It's possible that both Mac and Xiao are scum, but I don't really see the purpose of Xiao's initial vote on Mac or his not pressing the advantage he has on me.
I would say that Xiao is conf-town from all of this.

[NicCage]

Okay, Kingpin/frog ISO:
Kingpin is hard to read really. He defends Xiao against MP5, though we all know MP5 was just making a bs case.
He comments on Mutley, doesn't want to lynch him though, which is understandable from any alignment. He argues against Xeg's point about Mutley being town, saying that it's possible that he's just scums screwing around.
And that's about it. Seems like nooby sort of play with the way he reacted to MP5's case against Xiao, but I don't really have a read on him beyond that.

frog's play has been stronger, he jumps in with his big list of reads, which at that point seemed fair and for the most part accurate.
His major play D1 was to build a case on slimer, though his reasons were fairly strong, slimer's alignment was not clear at the time. He doesn't try to vote Mutley, though he says he would if the opportunity arises to do so, so I don't think that matters
He asks a few good questions (posts 351 and 416) and reminds everyone that Mutley shouldn't be left at L-1. Then he has to spend a bunch of time arguing with Mac over why he didn't vote Mutley.
He thinks Mac and I are scum, originally me by PoE and Mac by the case that everyone has stated against Mac.
He argues with Mac over some points, says I'm scummy for sheeping, and he's been the first person up with his ISO's
I've never seen any huge town moves from frog, but he's never really had the opportunity for them with the short days and all. I'd say his level of activity doesn't make him suspect, he leans town to me.

[NicCage]

And now we wait

[NicCage]

It isn't reasonable though. Why wouldn't you push for it? Your scumpartner is still out there, and I suspect that your and Didi's disagreement was meant to gain Didi towncred. I mean look at Didi's first posts D3, being suspicious of you as the rest of the town was, yet keeping his options wide open to vote for anybody (466). He even agreed with you over Xiao and directly backed up the same thing that you are using for your defense right now (471).

[NicCage]

My counterargument has already been stated more than once, I think it's clear that it I think that you are wrong and that it does make sense for you to have wanted to quicklynch Mutley.

I see my reads changing naturally through a series of posts. I guess voting without spelling out my reasons wasn't smart, but I did have reasons, I stated a couple of them in 481 and I've only expanded on them after Xiao's unvote.

[NicCage]

. You would encourage the quickhammer of Mutley because you knew you had the justification to do it, everyone wanted him lynched that day. If you were successful in getting him out of the way quickly you probably would have been under even less fire than you are now from putting him at L-1 because instead of ending the discussion without everyone's permission you would have had accomplices that quicklynched with you.

It's important to note that you pushed frog with a non-reason. Your case linking frog to Mutley didn't make sense whether Mutley was town or not. The reason you did it is because you wanted to waste time during the day accomplishing nothing, so you made up a reason to push frog with.

I said your behavior was weird and that you both needed reexamining, and I did that, yes in twenty minutes, and decided that you actually were the scummiest candidate and that Didi was most likely your partner. Weird assertions are not that far away from bullshit assertions.

[NicCage]

It only takes one reread.

[NicCage]

How does one naturally change their opinion? Is it not by reading and thinking about the game?

Yeah, ultimately you're going to have to choose between us, and if you choose right you'll have another conundrum tomorrow. Though I would like to hear from Didi before you choose, unless you're choosing me.

[NicCage]

I posted indicating that I thought it was weird that both you and Didi were the people I found to be independently the most scummy and that I would have to look more into it, which I did.

[NicCage]

Yes

Because I've decided which way I want to go. I think Didi and Mac are the scumteam. It would have been stupid for town to immediately lynch Mutley on D2, so why would Mac even think that?
I think Mac and Didi planned that conversation so that Didi could pick up towncred and MP5 wouldn't push his lynch. Now MP5 is dead and Mac clears Didi as a townread, while pushing a shitty case against you.

It had seemed strange to me before that both you and Didi could be the scumteam because of the way you interacted at the beginning of D2, but then I reread those events and ^this is what I saw. It doesn't take that long to read it.

[NicCage]

No, then I would have to have made it up in 8 minutes. I looked at your and Didi's ISO in between my post talking about you and Didi and my vote.

[NicCage]

I didn't think it was going to be this much of a problem

[NicCage]

you mean the case that was already against me?

[NicCage]

lol in what way, how do you expect me to say my reads changed? No matter how you try to represent it, my vote isn't going to look any scummier than it already did.

[NicCage]

Blehh, well I think I've stated about everything I think on Didi at this point. Haven't heard much

from

Didi though

[NicCage]

Eh yeah, that sort of makes sense, but really all it's doing is taking some of pressure off of you Xiao and frog. It won't change the situation a lot, considering as soon as Mac or I get to L-1 the other will hammer.
UNVOTE: Why are you fence-sitting and asking others? Afraid your vote alone won't be enough to lynch me?

[NicCage]

If you had the opportunity to hammer me you wouldn't take it? I don't understand the case your making.

[NicCage]

I'm still around.

[NicCage]

I was just trying to move the game forward Didi, though it seems like it was unnecessary. I like how you want to use that against me. VOTE: Mac

[NicCage]

Good game, I had fun. Xiao, you're a tricky bastard, you know that? I should have known better than to vote, I saw you and frog online and I thought I had a chance. Should have just called you out for voting.

Sorry frog! You were a good partner, I think we would have won if not for me.

So what did we learn here? Trolling only hurts town, never do it ever.