Newbie 1356 (OVER)

[Zoggoth]

VOTE: Aphelion

for being the only other complete newbie.

[Zoggoth]

@mist I meant people who have no games recorded on the site, because I stalk people pre-game.

Also to actually get some questions and answers down, if forced to make a choice between lynching two equally scummy players, would it be better to lynch the more experienced one? In other words, is it worth risking the loss of an experienced townie to avoid the risk of leaving an experienced scum alive?

I would argue that experienced scum have a far easier job in convincing newbies to play badly than the experienced town have in convincing them to play well, so I would be slightly inclined to lynch the more experienced player. Of course, this doesn't take precedence over actual reads, and it certainly wouldn't be enough to justify a quick-lynch.

I would be particularly interested to see what our SE's and IC think about lynching experienced players, as they might end up at the receiving end of this.

[Zoggoth]

Zoggoth

: Are you for or against lynching an experienced player Day 1?

To be honest, I would be surprised if a newbie scum hadn't given off any scum-reads by the end of day 1, which makes the experienced players more likely to be scum by PoE. However with the 'lynch the experienced' mentality found in many newbie games, it could also be said that experienced scum were more likely to reveal themselves because of dealing with this and the pressure from having to play both as scum and SE/IC, as these roles can sometimes be in conflict.

To give you a simple answer to the question, I would have to say I was for lynching an experienced player,but only if they seem scummy (aside from the obvious 'IC is always scum'). The advantage of having an experienced player to analyze another player's flip is far less than the advantage of flipping a scummy player, as scummy players' interactions (particularly with other suspected scum) can tell us a lot, regardless of whether they actually flip scum or not.

Besides, we will still have at least one SE/IC at the start of D2 anyway, so its not like we're giving up our only experienced player.

@mist and mutley, I really hope this is a really good scum play, rather than just a joke.

[Zoggoth]

@DDD While I'm sure that

you

are entirely aware of your alignment, I find your assumption that everyone else will believe you troubling. Isn't it usually assumed that everyone claims to be town? (other than mutley of course) Are you sure that you're not a scum who's panicking at being in a game with such obviously skilled scumhunters?

speaking of mutley's scumclaim (an rather unorthodox tactic), I recommend a mass OMGUS, because that can't possibly go wrong. VOTE: mutleyddmc

[Zoggoth]

Sorry, been a bit busy, I will read through the whole thing and come back with some reads.

[Zoggoth]

just realized mutley is at [L-1] so

unvote:

until I've read through the whole thread thoroughly.

I'm not really comfortable leaving it open to a hammer by a noob or a scum claiming a policy lynch. particularly as it doesn't look like he's gonna respond to pressure in a helpful way. (everything he does looks like possible scumslip anyway)

[Zoggoth]

Varsoon:

Seems to be acting very sensibly by stopping a possible bad lynch. I find it slightly odd at how little it took for arguments to start between you and DDDP and PP, so this makes me slightly suspicious, as it looks more like bussing than mafia arguing with town, but I wont take this as a scum read until I have better reads of the two people you're arguing with. So he's a town read atm.

Dexter:

I think that he was slightly heavy towards IC/SE lynch early on, but it looks honest to me (if he is scum, then I would guess that the other scum would be newbie as well, it just doesn't look like a bus to me). I definitely don't agree with his [L-1] vote on mutley, it seems a little too dangerous to me, and I think only one of mutley's wagon is scum (it would be too risky to have both scum on there, as mutley flipping town would incriminate both of them), and it looks far too easy for a scum-hammer to be justified by policy lynch. However I have a null read on him, as the vote could still be town motivated (mutley isn't being particularly helpful).

RadientCowbells:

His ISO is very telling, almost no actual content, and a huge amount of complaining about inactivity. Also seems to be very cautious about being involved in the mutley wagon, so I've got a slight scum read on him. (I admit that his ISO is very similar to mine, but at least I've answered questions with some significant content).

Mutleyddmc:

Lots of scum tells (Posting a lot with very little content other than trying to defend himself, trying to look like he is making a contribution, without helping town at all, faking(?) not caring about being lynched, muddying the water with all his joke scum claims) but somehow I'm having trouble imagining a scummutley. I'm going to have to say that unless he starts posting some actual useful content then I will put his vote on him again, deliberately not helping town is a scum tell in my opinion, and I don't want to have him sticking around the whole game making it difficult for the rest of us.

Shaboostein:

a little bit inactive so far, currently a null tell, I would be interested to see what they post now that they're back.

poke

Mist7676:

Lots of interesting discussion early on, about the IC lynch. I'm not sure whether I agree with her mutley vote at the moment, I feel a bit more justification is needed, but really that would need some actual content on mutleys part. currently a bit of a null tell.

Paid Pyro:

Has done very little so far other than have a go at Varsoon and RC, with not a lot of content himself. Still has his vote from RVS down, without a lot of justification, would you mind explaining? So far slight scum read, but their response to this question could very easily change this.

DDDP:

I'm not going to wade into the rights and wrongs of his argument with Varsoon, but to be honest it looks like town vs. town to me, from his other posts I am getting a weak town read, but I can't help feeling that this is just because he keeps mentioning that he is town.

Overall, if I had to lynch someone right now then I would choose mutley, he may not be playing for scum, but he is certainly not playing for town, and he could easily become just as dangerous as another scum later on if he continues to play like this. However, I'm not going to place my vote on him quite yet, as I want to give another chance to make an argument other than 'I'm town and anyone who says otherwise is automatically scum', also, I would like to hear his justification for keeping his vote on shaboostein from tail-end of RVS.

Other scum tells for me are PP and RC, but I really need more posts from them before I will be comfortable voting for them, so I will be keeping my vote for now.

Oh, almost forgot:

Zoggoth:

Obviously the towniest of the town tells, and completely wonderful and helpful in every way. Doesn't even need any justification.

[Zoggoth]

I would probably lynch PP over Mist at the moment. His posts seem to be a bit lacking in content so far, and his recent posts seem unhelpful at best, deliberately counterproductive at worst. Mist seems to have done more for the game, and her posts, while not a sure town, seem to be a bit less scummy than the feeling I'm getting from PP. However, I would really prefer for PP to come and defend himself before I consider lynching him.

[Zoggoth]

I'm back, sorry for the lack of posts recently. Reading through and should have a decent post ready within a few hours.

[Zoggoth]

Sorry for the delay, IRL work.

I'll do the same thing as last time (in multiple posts, so I don't get caught halfway through this again) concentrating on posts since my last mass read.

DDDP:

In 212 he seems suspiciously evasive in revealing his reasons for his opinions and still seems to expect people to agree with him even though 'Unhelpful answers are no more useful than not answering questions'. This kind of thing has been going on for most of the game:

@DDDP the fact that you're IC doesn't mean we should listen to you without reasoning.

I don't know how serious he was early on, but if he doesn't give some reasoning, I will just ignore his conclusions.

More recently he seems to be working relatively sensibly trying to get varsoon to give out enough information to get him off [L-1], but to be honest this looks incredibly suspicious. The sudden change of topic onto mist, who isn't here to defend herself a lot, looks like it could be scumteam trying to communicate. This sheds new light on '@Anyone/Everyone, if you had to lynch one of the SEs which one would you lynch and why?'.

Based on this, I would put forward the idea of DDDP/Varsoon scumteam. Their argument early on could easily be read as bussing, which we would expect from an experienced scum. However, as the day has gone on, varsoon has become more focused by others and began panicking. DDDP attempted a hint in 140 and 270 on how to proceed, but as the situation went from bad to worse, he has been forced to go all out and suggest an alternative lynch directly to varsoon. However Varsoon has continued to bus DDDP, forcing DDDP to back off and demand proof from him.

Although this argument makes sense to me, I would like someone elses take on it as well, as I'm obviously a bit biased towards myself.

More ideas soon, along with overall townlist and scumlist at the end.

[Zoggoth]

I was going to leave him until later, but since these posts are taking me so long

Varsoon:

Since my last post, he has put the over-zealous mutley wagon firmly to rest (slight town), accused a legitimate iso from PP and case of being OMGUS (he has a point, but still slight scum), put up a legitimate defense against his wagon instead of deflecting (like RC) or ignoring (mutley) and has done some actual analysis of who is and isn't on his wagon. All of this seems to be an effort to get the game moving again towards getting some real information, and

overall I think Varsoon is town.

(No mafia player should need a tl;dr)

This is contrary to my earlier post putting forward a varsoon/DDDP scumteam, and the points made there still stand. However, I made that post so that people could see my analysis and comment on it, and its completely pointless for me to spend an hour reading and analyzing the last week of gameplay and get nothing but two posts claiming that my argument is invalid because it requires us not to automatically believe everything my scum suspects say.

I acknowledge DDDP point that the argument is circumstantial and overcomplicated, but for goodness sake everyone else! If you agree, say why, if not, tell me why I'm wrong. There is no point asking for people's opinion and then completely ignoring what they say other than to justify your own towniness. I find it difficult to believe that anyone, regardless of alignment, could be in a position where they simply don't care whether Varsoon is scum or not, and who his scum partner could be.

Over the rest of the weekend I will put up as much proper analysis as I can, and I will vote within the next 24 hours. I am planning to do a bit of work on possible scum teams, as well as the detailed mist iso that varsoon requested ages ago. However, FH analysis is a bit more urgent now, as he seems to be very important in the varsoon wagon.

Also, I wasn't voting earlier because all the wagons seemed terrible and I was waiting for more peoples reads (I would have voted PP, but I was worried that I might have been overly harsh on him and was looking for some unbiased opinion). These reads never turned up, and I wanted to post my thoughts on everyone before announcing my vote, but at the moment I am leaning towards FH, and still trying to get some proper reads on mist and dexter. I will be putting my money where my mouth tomorrow.

[Zoggoth]

@freezing-hell I see Varsoon's comments on mutley's post as close to defense (while it could be seen as a straight attack on your motives, the fact that he doesn't initiate it makes it seem less of an OMGUS). But mainly it is his explanation of his actions on the previous two wagons. It is not much, but it is at least an argument.

I think that Varsoon had a point when he said that he couldn't tell where FH's argument was. The amount of activity of makes it relatively difficult to find, particularly given how many people FH commented on. If anyone's still interested I think the question Varsoon missed was either:
1. why he told everyone that anyone pushing the mutley to [L-1] was scum
2. why he thought mist was scum
3. why he changed his mind about RC
4. whether his lack of comment on my read meant he agreed
5. why he voted for PP in 164

I suddenly have a lot of sympathy for Varsoon trying to find these and work out which one FH meant, but when he's at [L-1] I think he should probably be motivated enough to put a bit more effort in.

The reason I'm not convinced that Varsoon is scum by these is that most of them seem to be more about him not justifying or commenting on his actions, rather than him being scummy.

In a game where there are people making no real actions at all (RC and, to a lesser extent, PP and me) and DDDP openly refusing to explain his actions until it fits his schedule, I feel its a bit harsh to be focusing on someone simply because he wasn't able to comment on the sheer volume of posts made about him.

Speaking of this, how come you were focusing varsoon so heavily, even before he didn't comment on your questions. Almost half of your first 25 posts had something to do with Varsoon, and you don't seem to be putting so much attention into anyone else.

Was there something in the way Varsoon was behaving before your replaced in that made him seem scummy, or did you simply post more about him because he has been the most active player, and there was more to ask him about?

[Zoggoth]

Sorry PP, almost forgot, VOTE: Freezing-hell.

I am very uneasy about how little reasoning he gave for his [L-1] vote on Varsoon, besides Varsoon's lack of response to the questions.

I am also suspicious of DDDP for turning it into a viable wagon, before his vote, varsoon's wagon could be argued as a double OMGUS, and now a Varsoon lynch looks like the only likely outcome.

I suppose I will have to wait until the flip before making any conclusions, but if we do lynch Varsoon and he's town, those two will be the first on my list.

[Zoggoth]

VOTE: Varsoon. Better than a no lynch

[Zoggoth]

I feel I need to justify my actions yesterday.

With around 8 hours to go, I realized that a no lynch was a real possibility and decided to move my vote off of FH (I didn't think there was enough people against him for a lynch on him to succeed) onto either Varsoon or Mist (both of whom were at L-2 at the time). As I knew I definitely wouldn't be able to post again between then and the start of D2, I decided to vote Varsoon, as his flip would be more helpful than Mist's would, and I would be able to get a better idea of the motivations of the people who had voted for him at various points, as many of them were scum suspects for me.

However, I didn't realize that during the time I was choosing my vote, FH had already moved his vote back to Varsoon, making my vote the hammer, as I had hoped that we would be able to use the final hours to get more information out of him, but obviously this wasn't possible

The most worrying thing, given the situation, is that the day after an apparently dodgy lynch, there is no flip or wagon analysis (other than a little by RC, of all people) and people go almost immediately to the same wagons from yesterday.

SCUM-ZOGGOTH COULD HAVE LITERALLY HAMMERED MIST RIGHT NOW!

(this is

not

a vote).

As such, I am planning to do some in-depth analysis of DDDP, as well as the wagons and flips from yesterday, but for goodness sake,

If you don't want to risk instant Lylo, someone get off Mist

.

tl;dr My hammer was accidental (and some reasoning), no-one is analyzing the flips properly, and everyone on Mist is either scum or an idiot.

FOS: DDDP

[Zoggoth]

Given the fact that scum haven't hammered Mist to put town in lylo, I think there are probably two possibilities:

1) Mist is scum, and their scum partner isn't convinced they can win 1v5, even with the extra credibility from hammering their partner.

2) Mist is scum, and the other scum is already on the wagon, and so can't hammer.

3) Mist is town, and both of the scum are already on their wagon. (As much as I love the idea of a mutley/RC scum team, this isn't likely)

Given how long scum has had to hammer, and the advantage that this would give them, I will have to go back slightly on my previous post and say that I would support a Mist lynch today. However, I still stand by the fact that putting Mist on L-1 before clarifying whether I was going to hammer again was highly suspicious, and as such, I think that 2) is most likely.

(For everyone who thinks Zoggoth/Mist is a thing, that would be 1). That team would have lost the moment Mist flipped scum)

Over the next few days: case 2) analysis, wagon and flips from yesterday.

So that you don't have to find it yourselves:
Voted Paid Pyro at some point:Varsoon
Voted Varsoon at some point: PP, RC, DDDP, FH, Dexter, Zoggoth

[Zoggoth]

@DDDP, it also assumes that RC expects me to actually post.

To be honest, I agree with Freezing Hell on RC's vote looking scummy, but I don't agree that it entirely clears Dexter of suspicion. If there was a Dexter/RC scum team, it could be argued that;
1. If Dexter is hammered, RC looks more town, and all he would have to do is work out who trusts them, and kill someone else.
2. FH switches and RC is lynched, Dexter is confirmed town in FH's eyes, making D4 a win for scum.

Some justification from RC for his vote would be really helpful right now.

[Zoggoth]

At this point there are probably few enough people left that we can do analysis of each scumteam individually rather than each person. We've got plenty of interactions over the last couple of days to look at, so it shouldn't be too hard to see who's teaming up

[Zoggoth]

I feel that the possibility of FH being scum has been rather neglected, as DDDP said, by voting a scum partner (or even town) first thing, there is quite a high chance of him being able to use everyone else's actions to make them look scummy and, even if no-one followed him, he could just use the same argument and say it was a test.

As for his possible partner, FH/Dex is possible, a quickhammer could still leave the game winnable, as everyone else on the wagon would look really suspicious (quickhammer is almost never town, and there isn't a cop left to justify it), and all FH would have to do is direct the lynch towards the scummiest player on the wagon, which would be relatively easy.

I still consider FH/RC a possibility as well. Although you could argue that no scum team would make that sort of move, it could be a plan, given that it happened so close to the start, but it also could be RC acting alone, to be honest, I could believe that sort of thing coming from RC.

FH, is your statement that Dexter is scum taking over from RC is conf scum from earlier, or are you saying that RC/Dex is definitely the scum team?

[Zoggoth]

Very well played everyone, but I'm afraid you have been deceived VOTE: RC

[Zoggoth]

To be honest, the main problem I had was finding stuff to post about. I knew I should be posting, just so I didn't look like I was lurking, but I had trouble balancing that with trying to avoid posting just for the sake of it. You guys all seemed seemed to manage it though, any advice?

[Zoggoth]

RC did seem a little strange, he seemed perfectly nice in the games I've read through, but in this game he stopped playing properly really early. It seemed to stop as soon as Mutley was killed, so I'm guessing it had something to do with his actions early on. Although I agree it was annoying, I feel it was a bit of an over-reaction.

Does anyone want to see the mafia QT?

[Zoggoth]

Here you go