Newbie 1365 - Vantasmagoria of Flower View (Game Over)


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Post Post #784 (isolation #0) » Wed May 08, 2013 4:21 am

Post by Regfan »

Hey everyone. Got my role PM and super pumped to finally play a newbie game again (Remember them being very enjoyable last time I IC'ed one). I'm going to boil a pot of tea and then do a read through of the thread, if there's anything you want me to look more into specifically let me know soon.
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Post Post #785 (isolation #1) » Wed May 08, 2013 4:47 am

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Also while it's superlame can someone please unvote while I go through the thread - I don't want the risk of someone quick-hammering.
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Post Post #786 (isolation #2) » Wed May 08, 2013 6:16 am

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I'm up to page 26, I've got a few strongish-reads but a few of my reads have changed about 20-30 times already reading through the thread. I'm going to take a little break and get back to finishing reading through the thread in about an hour (PS: That Shawn lynch was awful; He was bleedingly obvious town).
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Post Post #787 (isolation #3) » Wed May 08, 2013 7:06 am

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Alright, got to page 29 and I'm going to stop here because it's now 4am and I need to try and get some sleep. In the meantime I'm serious about someone unvoting; Really don't want to wake up to see a blitzhammer have occurred, me dying and having read the game for nothing.
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Post Post #795 (isolation #4) » Wed May 08, 2013 4:55 pm

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Ms Marangal, can you explain to me how you didn't notice that I'd replaced into Commanders slot and how you didn't notice that I'd requested that no hammer be placed on Irish
twice
yet you were still content to state intention to lynch him and question getting a claim out of him.

I was going to compile this into one massive list but right now there's a few of my reads that I'm iffy about and want to do a re-read through of some people (Irish / Nekoko / Mrs Margaral) again in about an hour - just want to get my head clear first and then I want to do some cross-ISOs to finish it of so you'll get this in pieces.

So three reads that I'm superconfident in at the moment are:

Town:


Thor:
While I completely detest Thors push on Shawn and cannot fathom how he didn’t stop, reassess and realize that Shawn was oozing genuineness his push comes across as if he legitimately believes his case and reasons hold a lot of merit. What I find to be his strongest town-tell by
a lot
though is and – it’s posts I don’t see Thor!Scum making, especially in a Newbie game. It’s him being somewhat worried that he’d die at night and leaving behind reads and thoughts – his ‘Irish/Commando’ would be town based on a Scum!Shawn lynch is something I can understand and his “Look at MM” feels like genuine belief that she might be mafia. Thor!Scum from what I recall (I'm not 100% on this meta and I haven't played with him for a little while though so take it with a grain of salt) is less aggressive in pushing a lynch and doesn't like going 1 v 1 as much as Thor!Town does (An example of Thor going 1 v 1 against someone when he's town similar to how he did in this game with Shawn is in ADwD where did it against Zdenek). So very confident he's town here.

Monty:
I actually had a scum-read on him based on his initial few posts (And what I was using as process of elimination (PoE) at the time) but his posts as the game progressed improved immensely. His attempt to get content and a 'feel' for where Shawns head at is very understandable and the sheer number of times he attempts to do so comes across as if his intentions aren't just to manipulate the answer into a reason to vote Shawn but really a way to get a solid read on him - examples are in , and . I really like his "Lets play a game and assume he's mod confirmed town - what's reads then" in as it's an attempt to get legitimate stances and opinions from people. One of the biggest things I like about Monty though is comes across as very genuine and very town, specifically the statement that he wouldn't have FoS'ed him if he didn't suspect him - the phrasing of the entire line doesn't feel at all contrived. His of "I thought I had this one as well" again feels genuine and is a fairly strong town-tell. I also think his post-hammer paranoia of Sahura combined with the fact that she died makes him far more likely town (Scum generally don't kill players they set up the ability to push towards) and paranoia after getting a lynch wrong post-hammer, one that you're confident in is super natural. Also while I disagree with parts of his Irish case I think the way he's put it together feels like he believes it's strong and correct.

MathDino (Syc):
I actually had a relatively strong town-read on Syc but her tattering down of activity weakened that quite a bit. I think her ‘Shawn jumped on a weak Sakura’ and ‘You might be right but his vote was opportunistic, it’s early we’ll see’ together in and show genuine scumhunting and reads as a decent town-tell. I like her – it’s very relaxed and doesn’t feel like she has any alternate agenda in it other than to calm the game down (And scum like paranoia, chaos and emotional reactions to occur from players) – for similar reasons I think is a town-tell. Her pushing to get a response from Isish in and again comes across as genuine scumhunting. Maths replacing in strengthens my town-read quite a lot; I like his reasoning behind his reads in and think his suggestion of hypo’ing in is
massively
town-mindset motivated, it’s not a post I think scum would post here at all. His reasoning behind reading town on Monty in is super understandable (I find one of the biggest town-tells to be someone going through the exact same thought-process – so him town-reading Monty for that is very legitimate).
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Post Post #796 (isolation #5) » Wed May 08, 2013 5:19 pm

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Scum:


Nekoko:
This is by far my strongest scum-read (I’m unsure why she wasn't lynched yesterday and why she’s not really being pushed on by anyone bar Irish today). Her which is her initial post has a scum-slip level contradiction in it. In that post she states that Irish’s posts are suspicious, specifically due to think thinking that Shawn seems so town that he’s mafia and she states that he’s mimmic’ed Sycorax but at the end of her post she states “Also I find Shawn suspicious although he looks like an aggressive reckless newb town” which is literally the thing that she’s saying Irish is mafia for stating. There's no way whatsoever she'd think he was mafia for it if she herself believed and agreed with the same thing, it's rather instead her just making up justification to back up a bullshit vote. Nekkoks scum-read on MM in feels off…the fact that he questions there being a slip based on the use of ‘her’ doesn't feel legitimate at all – there’s little way that’d ever be a slip – but something to note; watch this scum-read of hers on MM disappear as the game progresses. Her where she jumps on the Shawn wagon repeats the reasoning that Hana used in but is stated in a way that makes it come across as if she's trying to claim it's her own 'unique reasoning' (That's something scum do a lot - they don't like being associated with bandwagoning with no reason so they copy someone elses reason and make it look like it's their own one). Her MM scum-read as I thought vanishes and instead she calls MM town based on "Not finding her vote suspicious" that's the entire reasoning behind it (When she flips scum the chances that MM is scum via interactions are incredibly high) - the only other town-read she's stated is on Thor while stating no real comment on Monty or Syc other than they're in her PoE pool to lynch which is scum leaving options open down the line.

Just need to give Irish and Ms a few more reads through. (Irish - If you could link me to a town and a scum completed game of yours off-site that'd be helpful).
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Post Post #798 (isolation #6) » Wed May 08, 2013 5:30 pm

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Yeah, that'll suffice - I'm taking an hour break (Going for a run), I'll read them when I get back as well as finishing the ISO's here.

While I'm gone though I'd like to know whether you agree or disagree behind any of my reasoning behind my reads so far (And if so what/why).
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Post Post #802 (isolation #7) » Wed May 08, 2013 6:30 pm

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Irish, I'd rather not vote until I've got through everything (Odds are this'll be the only day-phase I see; so need to make the most of it).

Ms Marangal, sure Tierces little lines are hard to spot but shouldn't using PoE tell you that I was replacing into Commanders slot? And there's a lot below that I want you to explain to me (Specifically your turn-around-read on Commander and your read on Nekoko).

Conflicted:

Ms Marangal:
I think my read changed on her more times than it did on anyone in the read-through and this isn’t a read that I’m super confident in alone at all but I’ll try and explain exactly where my heads at here (Sorry if it gets a bit longwinded). I like her statement of a vague town-read on Hana in – her reasoning behind it in is decent too. One of the bigger issues I had with her early game though is that of “I wasn’t defending X, if anything I was defending Y” feels like “Scum caught for the wrong reasons” – it’s rather overdefensive, I also don’t like the fencesit on Irish in that post, does both of those things again. Again, really find to be really awkward: Might be worth going to do some meta reading on her*. I do like the worry shown in the day ending too early in though and that does read townish (
Stares at Tierce! I’m allowed to use it sometimes!
) though I don’t like how she attempts to shift attention towards Monty and Irish instead and rather avoids Nekoko (If Nekoko flips scum this is another thing that makes MM very likely mafia). I find to be very similar (I like the ‘This is TvT stop it) but don’t like the fact that her scum-read on Monty is purely PoE which would mean she’d have to have a town-read on Nekoko for that to be valid but she never stated one. Okay, now to my absolute biggest issue with Ms – her reasoning and strength of her town-read in Shawn in in comparison to what it ends up with in is incredibly different and while I can understand that a re-read changes things a lot of the reasoning she originally used would and should have still been valid; there was only town motivation behind his posting and reads (Something she noted) so the change in stance there really feels wrong. First time that Nekoko is noted as a read is in stating “Likely town” without an explanation (That’s something I want by the way – when you read this I want an explanation on your read on Nekoko right now, but also what your reasoning was behind your read on her D1). Also explain to me the “My reads haven’t really changed” in and when your read on Commando was flipping in . Also explain to me how you state a town-read again and town-reasoning on Commando in , , to the turn-around vote on him in .
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Post Post #803 (isolation #8) » Wed May 08, 2013 6:36 pm

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Irish, is there any way to ISO at the site you linked me to? ie. See all your posts in the game on one page.
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Post Post #804 (isolation #9) » Wed May 08, 2013 7:57 pm

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Conflicted (Apologies for the length of this but there's a lot I need to get answered / down):

IrishPope:
This sadly is another read that my mind changed several times reading through the thread – I need to get a grip on his meta; so hopefully when I find out if ISOing in his off-site game is possible then I’ll be able to do so because a lot of his play that I’m having issues with I think may just be playerstyle based and not alignment based (Specifically the constant repetition of “I’m town, and ‘we’re in a way that it seems like he’s trying to force himself to fit in, also his worrying over his image rather than not caring about it at all which is what town should be doing).

I don’t like the reasoning used in (It’s illogical) but I’m not so sure it’s a scum-tell. I do like the “I’m not throwing my vote down until everyone talks ie. We have more information” – I can understand where Thors coming from stating that voting is needed due to it creating pressure but I personally prefer not to throw votes around like willy nilly and will only vote if I’m 1) Done reading everything 2) Am confident in a read and 3) Want to reaction-test or pressure someone and think it’ll lead to alignment-related reactions rather than just a nervous flail regardless of alignment.

I rather like – I think the “I’ll get killed for asking too much” is a town-tell. The change in attitude in is awkward though (And this is an example of what I mean re; Need to know his meta). I think him sticking to his guns and insisting on everyone from everyone rather than caving and appeasing people by throwing down a vote in is slightly town. I don’t like his read on Shawn in the overdefensive of “Same number of votes as me” is bad (But again, need meta on that) , the rest of the reads are decent though. is something someone is going to have to remind me to come back to very soon, there's certainly something important there*. I really liked both and , they come across as if he's 'sticking it to people' for telling him to vote earlier and stating that withholding his vote did 'the town good' and he seems to really believe it there, not so sure he'd do that as mafia. What I don't like though is - if he confidently believed both were mafia then there'd be no reason to unvote and the "If Shawn flips town I didn't want him, I wanted the other guy" reads as an attempt to distance himself from an upcoming town flip though his reasoning behind the unvote in is decent.

Okay, something I'm going to HAVE to have explained to me is and the "X thinks Y is town now" - scum must have daytalk! I'm assuming it's a joke but if it wasn't what made you think Sakura was mafia at that point other than the read-change and you repeat that you're not sure Shawn IS mafia but rather he LOOKS like one; If you believe that's the case then you'd believe that town can often look like mafia; do you think that's the case with you this game? I also want a few reads from explained in more depth; specifically Monty, Thor and Nekoko, you state that Nekoko is town there (I know your thoughts are different
now
but I need to know how you thought
then
) for being aggressive but you're also stating that Thors aggressive push made him scum so what's the difference between their aggressive pushes on the person that ended up flipping town. Also your scum-read on Monty is based on him lurking and being less contributive, how is this different from Nekoko who lurked through majority of D1 and didn't have much content?

Irishs vote-flip onto Nekoko in the manner he did it in is a decentish town-tell - he could have easily continued to push upon Ms and Monty without having to attack a new person and changing his read there when he wouldn't have needed to would attract more negative attention; something he'd have wanted to avoid. and is troubling though but will come back to that.
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Post Post #805 (isolation #10) » Wed May 08, 2013 7:59 pm

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So all up gun-to-head I'd probably call a Nekoko + Ms Margaral scum-team at the moment (Their interactions and reads on each other fit so perfectly as a scum-team; ignoring each other for the most part, a little bit of distancing at the start, Ms being over-defensive when stated that she was defending Nekoko and calling her town now for what really is no reason at all) but I really need a lot of answers from Irish and Ms on the questions I've asked in the above paragraphs.

Thor, going to need you to step up your game too and help me here; if you think I'm missing something about Nekoko-Ms you need to let me know soon.
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Post Post #806 (isolation #11) » Wed May 08, 2013 8:05 pm

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Oh, one last thing; Ms Margaral, could you link me to what you consider to be your best town and scum game please.
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Post Post #808 (isolation #12) » Wed May 08, 2013 8:37 pm

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Even if it isn't your best performance here the games will give me an indication of what your play is like as both alignments so thanks for the links (I'll carve time out and read them tonight). Process of elimination
only
works if your reads elsewhere are strong, if you're unsure of the reads you're ruling out then PoE will never help so scum-reads based on PoE based on weak town-reads doesn't make much sense.

Try and explain the meta and town-mindset that makes you think Nekoko is town because the "It's weak, I can't explain it" really really looks like you've town-read your partner so you wouldn't have to push on them and are unable to justify the read whatsoever when pressured about it.

I don't believe that your Shawn/Commmando reads weren't 'strong' and that you were intentionally hyping up the strength of them - that makes no sense to do whatsoever; the fact that you could throw out a bunch of reasoning that was very valid on the both of them shows that you know it's not just a "Gut" read too so the fact that you've moved back to voting Commando (Someone you've repeatedly said is town with reasoning attached) over Nekoko who you've avoided and can't explain the read on (Plus you've avoided my scum-read and explanation on her and my reads on everyone else, and everything I've done; I see no way whatsoever that you think this slot is scum right now, none yet you're maintaining a vote on it).
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Post Post #809 (isolation #13) » Wed May 08, 2013 8:39 pm

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Yeah, growing more and more confident I'm right on Nekoko-Ms.

I'll do the meta-reading later tonight then I think I'll be ready to vote. (Again: Thor / Irish / Math / Monty - if you think I'm misreading something here between the two of them (Nekoko/Ms) you're going to need to speak up because staying quiet doesn't help at all and right now I'm pretty sure their interactions work INCREDIBLY well as scum. Haven't been this confident in a scum-team in a while too).
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Post Post #811 (isolation #14) » Wed May 08, 2013 9:13 pm

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Commando was blatantly obvious town (How that's really in question is bewildering - he actually thought there had to be an IC as scum). Plus as I've said; you've ignored
everything and all my reads
that I've stated. Haven't commented on the multitude of reasons why I've said Nekoko is scum, rather avoided it.
In post 810, Ms Marangal wrote:as for Neko, I had two games with her, one as a scum-buddy (linked game) and the other I was scum and she was town, She lurked the fuck outta the game I was with her in and she was fairly active and contributing reads and suspicions in the game she was town in. this is reminiscent of her town game
Wait. Let me get this right? You think she's being active and contributing to reads and suspicions in this game and think she's town because of that? Are we reading a different game or something because I'm reading her as very clearly coasting through the game, only having to post when she has to and making very easy stances (Shaun!Scum, Irish!Scum - Thor!Town and no read on anyone else in the game really).
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Post Post #812 (isolation #15) » Wed May 08, 2013 9:19 pm

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I mean this below was essentially a scum-claim (How he wasn't hung over Shaun is unbelievable):
In post 156, Nekoko wrote:
In post 52, sycorax wrote:Caught up.

VOTE: Shawn

atm shawn looks like scum trying to look super townie. Calling scum because a new player says they are new etc.?
In post 85, TheIrishPope wrote:I have my Hand of Suspicion aimed at Shawn. He seems so innocent. Real scumtell.
Finding TheIrishPope's post suspicious. His reason for suspecting Shawn looks the same as sycorax's reason

for voting him but the difference is that TIP didn't vote Shawn and his reason is weaker.
In post 156, Nekoko wrote:
Also I find Shawn suspicious although he looks like an aggressive reckless newb town
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Post Post #813 (isolation #16) » Wed May 08, 2013 9:25 pm

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And the below again; If changing a read and voting someone you previously thought was town was a town-tell since mafia wouldn't want to appear suspicious via doing it to her then she'd have thought Shaun was town (Shaun did that on multiple occasions) and she'd have thought that Irish doing it now would be a town-tell. But she's not. She's selectively attributing tells to match her bullshited reads.
In post 736, Nekoko wrote:I actually like her vote on Shawn. It doesn't look suspicious to me. I don't agree with TIP's claim that MM joined the wagon to blend in or something. Voting for the player she previously thought was town would actually make her suspicious to other players so she's town.
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Post Post #815 (isolation #17) » Wed May 08, 2013 9:52 pm

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Hmm. Will need to mull on the claim a lot tonight (Does explain the bullshit town-read on Ms though) and the wording difference makes sense.

If there's a cop CC or a jailkeeper they need to claim ASAP. It'd give us a confirmed mafia.


I thought TIP's "Protect" was to do with Sycs saying that 'every town has a pope' in the post beforehand.
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Post Post #823 (isolation #18) » Thu May 09, 2013 4:55 pm

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In post 818, MontyWhittaker wrote:Regfan, your reads are interesting in light of your replacement. I had previously been fairly confident with a Commandodude town, and your replacement only serves to affirm that belief. Since you are calling for a claim of the power roles, I can only assume that you are not one. Assuming a Ms. Marangal/Nekoko scumteam, that means that IrishPope, Thor, or Mathdino would comprise the other roles. So you are advocating a claim right now, correct?
It's technically possible for there not to be another PR inside the setup - ie. Doctor + Additional VT setup (That said I don't think that's the case). But yes, if there's another PR claim from anyone they should claim right now because it'd instantly let us know there's one mafia inside of Nekoko + Whoever claims PR. That said I begrudgingly have to admit that the game looks very natural (The breadcrumb and reasoning behind claiming makes sense; I don't think she'd have gone "I messed up my cop game" as scum but rather been more defensive and perhaps held of claiming longer. There's one thing I do want to check though and that's the amount of planning she puts into her play as scum (Ie. What her play is like inside her scum QT's because if there's no history of her planning fake-claims days before and setting up breadcrumbs then she's without a doubt legitimate - I'll look into that tonight).

Since Irish has posted though and hasn't claimed PR I can go into what I had before that I was hesitant in stating - His Post 237 of "Too scared to lynch a PR" pretty much assured he wasn't a PR in that if he was there wouldn't be much reason for him to be scared of lynching a PR (1/3 chance of there not being another PR and only a 1/8 chance of the person being run up being the other PR if there was two). That however contradicted with his reaction to Ms in and where he soft-claims a PR the "Doctor is gone from a theoretical standpoint is that good or point" isn't something that's natural to consider as a VT at all; Why would scum ever consider shooting a VT claim that's considered scummy; so him asking that there makes no sense whatsoever where it does make sense with him thinking he's being lynched as scum and soft-claiming a PR (I think Ms saw this too which is why she moved from "I might hammer" to voting elsewhere).
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Post Post #825 (isolation #19) » Thu May 09, 2013 5:27 pm

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In post 824, Thor665 wrote:I think your request for a JKer CC is pretty terrible at this juncture.
Frankly, I'm against the cop one too - but at least that one makes 'any sense at all'.
I can't tell if you're trolling or actually serious with this? If there's a JK then Nekoko would be confirmed mafia to them (Can't be 3 PR's in the setup) meaning they'd have to claim here; if they don't we'd essentially be clearing not just one but two scum (Since I'm pretty sure if Nekoko is scum it's with Ms).
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Post Post #833 (isolation #20) » Fri May 10, 2013 7:07 pm

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Awestfie replacing in is going to make this game interesting (I know her from EM + Have hydra'ed with her so I can read her very very well).
In post 829, Thor665 wrote:@Reg - so...about that Irish Pope lynch.
Ugh. I was going to say "Yeah that sounds like a good idea since Nekokos claim is likely legitimate" but guess what I found: In this scum QT she states "
I think the two of us should start breadcrumbing or something, don't you think? For example, I'll breadcrumb as if I'm a cop and you will breadcrumb as if you're the seer."
There's no Mafia QT posted for Newbie 1315 where she was also mafia (I'd like to have it if it could be posted though) but the fact that she does consider breadcrumbing as scum means that her claim isn't anywhere near as genuine. If there's a counter-claim (A Cop or JK I really really want them to claim today; If we mslynch today we end up in LYLO and deciphering who is the legitimate PR inside LYLO isn't fun whereas if we have a mslynch when doing it at worst case we guarantee one scum lynch. I have a question for you though; If Nekkok is legitimate and Ms is town via it then who are the two scum? I'd assume Irish is one but which town-read do I have wrong for the second?
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Post Post #834 (isolation #21) » Fri May 10, 2013 7:11 pm

Post by Regfan »

Irish, counter-claiming is stating that someone has claimed your role - In this situation it also works for JK though since someone claiming cop is claiming a JKs role.

Ms, I don't see the posts where Thor considered he'd die as faked (And personally I don't think he's the sort of player to make those as scum in a newbie game - I could be wrong but it's not fitting what I know of him as a playstyle). Also "Not auto-town-reading him" isn't really a scum-tell for Thor (There's a lot of things he does that are non-alignment related in every game; I've only noticed little things that are town-tells or scum-tells for him). I'd agree the post-hammer paranoia from Monty is something I should re-read because it's something I might have misread the first time around though.
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Post Post #838 (isolation #22) » Fri May 10, 2013 7:30 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 835, Thor665 wrote:@Reg - I usually prefer to just find 'a' scum, and then worry about partners. The easy logical answer is 'maybe one of you other scumspects' the sadly common truth is 'someone we currently think is town'. I will personally admit, for me - it would be you as the most likely current partner, albeit just from the play today, I'd need to go back to see if it makes sense yesterday.
I don't normally live deep enough into the game (Probably 3-4 games out of 40) where it's a 3 way or something where you're able to hunt using a lot of interactions of a flipped player. I have to make do trying to work out and nail the scum-team before I die and right now I'm not sure at all. If Nekoko is mafia a lot makes sense but if she's town then it would make Nekoko/Ms!Town and I have a strong town-read on Math, you and to a slightly lesser extent Monty meaning I'd have to be misreading someone - That's what I need to work out.

I'll probably give a few people one more read-over but eagerly awaiting on Awestfies thoughts on everything (Especially the claim).
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Post Post #840 (isolation #23) » Fri May 10, 2013 7:34 pm

Post by Regfan »

Irish, mind explaining and to me because they make little to no sense if you're a VT.
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Post Post #842 (isolation #24) » Fri May 10, 2013 7:45 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 841, awestfie wrote:I'll read this game later today, is there anything in particular I should know? By that I mean, has anyone claimed? I think it'd be more useful for me to have that information prior to re-reading instead of finding it out during my re-read.
Why would you just say you can't post right now? Seems like filler to me.
Nekoko claimed cop today with an innocent on Ms. If you're JK/Cop you need to CC.
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Post Post #844 (isolation #25) » Fri May 10, 2013 7:50 pm

Post by Regfan »

If you were a JK or Cop I can understand having to ask if it's smart for you to claim since doc is dead; As a VT I can't. That's my issue with it; As a VT you'd know that there's no chance that mafia would shoot you therefore making the fact that the doctor is dead irrelevant. It looks very much like setting up a fake-claim.

And Nekoko explained why she claimed: The was 4-5 days until deadline and she thought there was a chance either Ms or herself would be run up (Which there was since I thought and kind of still think that there is scum inside them) - So she claimed to avoid deadline panic.
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Post Post #846 (isolation #26) » Fri May 10, 2013 8:00 pm

Post by Regfan »

You're not really answering my question; If you're a VT why would you care that the doctor is dead when asked to claim? (And don't say "I wasn't sure - I wanted to ask someone else because that doesn't help at all - I want to know why YOU thought there was a chance the doctor death could be relevant to your claim).

And from here I need to do some re-reads, I want to hear Awetfies thoughts on everything and see if she CC's. Leaning towards lynching you though (Still have Thor/Math(Awestfie) as strong-town, think Monty is town (But he's one of the people I need to do a re-read of) and we're not lynching the innocent so Ms is of the table completely and while I think the fact that Nekoko suggested breadcrumbing cop as scum in a prior game of hers I'm not sure if lynching her today is optimal; It might be best to give her a night, if she's legitimate it'll force scum into making a decision whether to shoot her or let her live and get another report giving us a great deal of information to work with tomorrow leaving only you - And I really think your 789 and 791 was setting up a PR claim).
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Post Post #848 (isolation #27) » Fri May 10, 2013 8:33 pm

Post by Regfan »

Yes, if you're a cop/jailkeeper you should have claimed when we asked for a counter-claim pages ago.
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Post Post #850 (isolation #28) » Sat May 11, 2013 2:31 am

Post by Regfan »

Thanks for the link.

Awestfie: When you read this, can you make a special attempt to read through the thread + post your thoughts in the next 12ish or so hours because deadlines in about two days and I'd like someone to bounce thoughts of with (And it seems Thors busy / not inspired to do so).
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Post Post #853 (isolation #29) » Sat May 11, 2013 5:06 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 852, Thor665 wrote:Hit me up - because now it's the weekend and I do have time.
I also, literally, just laid out a rather serious thought about you being the scumbuddy and you totally ignored it, so...?
Simply put your paranoia or suspicion or whatever you want to call it will fade as soon as you do a re-read of the slot so it's not worth spending a lot of time discussing (Commando was obvobvobvTown and you know my Town vs Scum meta enough to know that I'm town here without a doubt; I might have one of the weakest scum games on the entire site - difference in posting is something like 100 posts as town vs 20 as scum).

What I do want to know your thoughts on is this: I highly doubt a Nekoko + Irish scum-team, in fact I might even call it impossible (Nekoko can't win as a cop claim if she thought her partner had a serious chance of being lynched after her claim since she'd have to dodge 3 lynches and make up reports the whole way through which will lead her to being confirmed scum via process of elimination). That means that someone that isn't Nekoko or Irish is scum; Who? (I've gone into this earlier but assuming Nekoko!Town, that means Ms!Town and lets say it's Irish!Scum, that means there's a scum inside of you, awestfie and Monty and I have town-reads on all three of you (Not saying it's impossible that I have a wrong read, it's possibly the case) but I want to know
which
read you think I have wrong ie. Who am I misreading as town? Because if you think all of the reads are spot on and the reasoning legit here then we're looking at a fake-PR claim.

So help me work out what I've got wrong.
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Post Post #855 (isolation #30) » Sat May 11, 2013 5:29 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 854, Thor665 wrote:I know your town v. scum meta? News to me.
Yes, you do? It was one of the larger talking points in Black Flag Nightless and came up on multiple occasions in ADwD.

One of the strongest town-tells by
far
is genuine scumhunting; Scum know everyones alignments and therefore don't have to decipher anything, their scumhunting is often contrived and with specific motivations behind it (Make X look scummier, buddy Y, seem contributive ect.) whereas town (Especially newer town players) are more open with their thoughts and attempts to gain reads. Both Syc and Dinos scumhunting reads very genuine and I don't think that's a 'whoop-de-doo' thing at all (If you need a specific example look at from Dino). And I highly highly highly doubt one of the first thing scum do when replacing in is decide "Let me attempt to rolefish" - so Dinos is him legitimately believing there's an advantage towards it. Add to that he thought we were playing Matrix6 the new Newbie Setup; that means he didn't know there was a mafia rolecop in the setup (If he was mafia that's something he'd absolutely have known). (And while I know it wasn't your intention; thanks you've actually just made me 10000% certain this town-read is right).

I will admit that the Monty town-read on the other hand is something I need spend time looking at again; Watching a cricket game at the moment and will sleep after but when I get time tomorrow I'll look through his meta.
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Post Post #857 (isolation #31) » Sat May 11, 2013 5:39 am

Post by Regfan »

I believe you did state awareness of the meta in Black Flag Nightless? It's something that Empire/Tammy repeated over-and-over-again. And having a conversation of why Irish/I aren't a scum-team
is
a waste of time - You
should
be aware enough of my meta to know that I'm town here confidently (Or if you really really have forgotten how easy a read I am you can wait until Awestie reads-through and she'll be able to confirm to you that I'm town here) and again as I said Commando was incredibly obvious town (Don't see how you haven't' spent the 10 seconds to ISO him realize that and stop wasting time on that angle).
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Post Post #861 (isolation #32) » Sat May 11, 2013 8:42 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 858, Thor665 wrote:And your counter example is that I'm supposed to believe scum has fakeclaimed cop, called their partner a confirmed innocent, and that's their plan?
I don't think scum inno'ing their partner or setting up to inno their partner is that far-fetched at all (Especially considering that Ms wasn't getting much flak from anyone and neither was Nekoko before I replaced in so I think it's very possible they'd have decided to set it up to 'clear' the both of them even more in a later game stage situation or at worst case scenario bait out a PR claim).

That said Irish's and read as setting up a PR claim, his posts after Nekokos claim are him claiming VT and then when it looks like he's going to be lynched again in he sets up a PR claim again so I think he's the best lynch but I want Awestfies thoughts on everything.
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Post Post #863 (isolation #33) » Sat May 11, 2013 8:59 pm

Post by Regfan »

Carve out an hour or two now and read through the thread
please
, deadlines roughly a day away.
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Post Post #865 (isolation #34) » Sun May 12, 2013 4:03 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 864, Thor665 wrote:I'm not available to hammer at deadline, if that's the game we're playing.
I will be so though so there's no risk of a no-lynch at all. Awestfie needs to hurry up and get to reading the game in the meantime.
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Post Post #886 (isolation #35) » Sun May 12, 2013 11:33 pm

Post by Regfan »

I just got home from an awful day at university. I'm going to try and relax for a few hours then I'll get to this game.

In the meantime AWESTFIE, get to reading the thread.
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Post Post #888 (isolation #36) » Mon May 13, 2013 2:22 am

Post by Regfan »

Sigh Awestfie, you really did replace in to troll didn't you. I can give you another 2 hours and I'll hammer when I go to bed if you're not here by then.
In post 866, TheIrishPope wrote:So you're seriously talking about policy lynching because I'm a VT?
That's not even close to it. There's a whole of of reasons why you're likely to get lynched today and none of them are policy. Your claim + your "Is claiming with doc dead" in 789 and 791 don't mesh at all is one (You've yet to explain a reason why you thought doc being dead would influence the benefits/loss of a VT claiming) and the other larger reason is process of elimination - If Nekokos claim is legitimate I see no way whatsoever that you can be town (I'm very strong on Awestfie/Thor!Town which would only leave 1 scum in the setup if that was all the case) so from where I'm standing either 1) You're scum or 2) Nekokos claim is fake and if it's 2) I'm hoping the night-kill tonight will point heavily towards it (And this is fairly important; if I die tonight and Irish flips town today it's Nekoko+Ms).
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Post Post #889 (isolation #37) » Mon May 13, 2013 4:14 am

Post by Regfan »

Can't wait any longer, I'm going to bed. Really really hope this is right and that my paranoia over Nekokos claim being fake is wrong.

Vote: Irish
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Post Post #892 (isolation #38) » Thu May 16, 2013 6:31 am

Post by Regfan »

Uh, what? The only thing I can think of is that scum were AFK during the night.

Nekoko, your report? (Also right now Ms is 100% clear).
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Post Post #894 (isolation #39) » Thu May 16, 2013 6:36 am

Post by Regfan »

Uh? Thor and Monty have been online and posted elswhere during the night-phase (Just checked) meaning how would they forgot to send in a kill? This is really weird.
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Post Post #895 (isolation #40) » Thu May 16, 2013 6:39 am

Post by Regfan »

I think we have to NL here? I want everyone to post first though.
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Post Post #897 (isolation #41) » Thu May 16, 2013 7:15 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 896, Ms Marangal wrote:Why would we NL here?
It gives us near automatic win in the occasion that Nekoko is scum (She'd be forced to clear someone else).
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Post Post #899 (isolation #42) » Thu May 16, 2013 7:28 am

Post by Regfan »

Lack of night-kill is likely due to scum forgetting the game (I can't think of anything else making sense here; it's really weird). "WIFOM" is an excuse for no night-kill, in fact it's an absolutely stupid thing to suggest because it'd be guaranteeing a cop investigation (ie. If it was a guilty it'd be putting scum in autoloss and if it was an innocent it'd be one of the scummier players being cleared).

And do I have to explain this to you in kindergarten logic? We don't attain an extra lynch if we lynch today, there is no extra mslynch from it. There is no gain in lynching today whatsoever. There however is gaining in NLing - it means that if Nekoko is town that scum will be forced to shoot her and thus we don't have to worry about fake-claiming mafia at all and if she's mafia it forces her to clear another person giving us a pretty much assured win.
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Post Post #902 (isolation #43) » Thu May 16, 2013 9:55 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 900, awestfie wrote:although that read isn't all that solid; you know that I've trouble reading you.
This shouldn't be true (At least not in forum mafia) you know the massive differences between my town / scum play (We've hydra'ed as scum together and you've seen a few of my town games; plus I think we've even had a conversation about the sheer difference) + you should read Commando (He's the very definition of obvtown). Right now though given the no-kill with a cop claim alive you should know that I'm town without a shadow of a doubt.

I need to carve out some time and do a Irish interaction-read with Monty/Thor but you should let me know what you think of Thors because I read that as town. Also do you think Thors likely to forget to submit a kill over Monty? (I'm in two minds over it at the moment with neither making a full amount of sense). I was kind of hoping that the no-death was caused by you being a JK and having JK'ed Nekoko which is why I wanted everyone to post.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #44) » Thu May 16, 2013 10:09 am

Post by Regfan »

Wow you're dumb.

vote; nekoko


Thought that was the case too.
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Post Post #908 (isolation #45) » Thu May 16, 2013 10:10 am

Post by Regfan »

I even PM'ed Tierce "I'm hoping Awestfie is dumb and is JK who JK'ed Nekoko but didn't claim".
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Post Post #909 (isolation #46) » Thu May 16, 2013 10:10 am

Post by Regfan »

Glad this means all of my town-reads (Math / Thor / Monty) were right too. And that my scum-read on Nekoko wasn't wrong nor was my paranoia of the claim.
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Post Post #913 (isolation #47) » Thu May 16, 2013 10:23 am

Post by Regfan »

Damn. If I don't get to win with you guys does that mean I can joint with scum?

Nekoko, force a NL and I'll selfovte tomorrow!


I don't get how you didn't realize that 1) There can only be 2 PRs in the setup and dead doc + you is 2 so she was auto scum yesterday... and 2) That she claimed a report when you claimed to jailkeep (Which is a roleblock) on her.
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Post Post #914 (isolation #48) » Thu May 16, 2013 10:26 am

Post by Regfan »

Also to be fair Ms's town-read on Nekoko (Which was complete bullshit) made it really hard to read her as town. So give me some leeway!
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Post Post #917 (isolation #49) » Thu May 16, 2013 10:28 am

Post by Regfan »

I apologise. Just please don't ban me, I'll do better next time.
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Post Post #919 (isolation #50) » Thu May 16, 2013 10:37 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 918, awestfie wrote:I think you should definitely give me that "Best Town Performance" scummie. You obviously do not deserve it and I obviously carried you (again) this game. I can't believe you, out of all people, would get a scummie about best town performance when you can't even properly town-read someone.
I think you'd be more deserving of the paragon of mafia hunters one given how much of this games win is due to your incredibly pro skills of cc'ing (late).

Should I log in to my Thor665 account, hammer this win. Log into my Tierce account (Which the password to is 'imobvtown') and confirm this game as a win?
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Post Post #922 (isolation #51) » Thu May 16, 2013 10:45 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 921, awestfie wrote:that was my bloody plan; but YOU ruined it all.
Now you just sound like one of those grumpy old men who yell "You meddling kids, always ruining things for me".
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Post Post #932 (isolation #52) » Fri May 17, 2013 6:48 pm

Post by Regfan »

Vote: No lynch

In post 925, awestfie wrote:Man, I actually think you're town now, dang! I'm not actually JK.
You're a really bad person. And also this means mafia didn't submit a kill (Which makes no fucking sense).
In post 928, MontyWhittaker wrote:Sorry, but can someone explain again the benefits of not lynching?
Right now it's 5-1 (That means we have two lynches to hit scum and win). By NLing it turns into 4-1 (That means we still have the same two lynches to hit scum and win in) however in that situation there's one less person to have to worry about; in situations with clears (Awestfie/Ms) that's not a gain however since we have a cop claim by NLing even if one of Awestfie/Ms die we attain a new clear (ie. Nekokos new report) or Nekoko dies in which case the suspect pool drops by one.
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Post Post #934 (isolation #53) » Fri May 17, 2013 8:08 pm

Post by Regfan »

Unvote


There's something I want explained first, noticed this when I was doing some reading; Monty in which is at the end of D1 you state that Irish has 'won back into your good graces' and that you want to look more closely at Thor and Nekoko yet in which is first post of D2 you come out with a case against Irish in so what initially brought about the change of read towards him moving back into your good graces and what brought about the change back to a FoS on him? And did you ever go to look more closely at Thor/Nekoko (Try and run me through your actions and thought process at the start of D2 please).
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Post Post #936 (isolation #54) » Fri May 17, 2013 8:53 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 935, awestfie wrote:Hey Regfan, if Nekoko is indeed cop, who's mafia and why?
That's something I'm trying to work out (I have town-reads on the both of Thor/Monty and am still finding it hard believing that scum forgot to send in a kill when both of them were posting elsewhere online at the time) but I don't want to waste too much time since if Nekoko is mafia then we'll know it by tomorrow.
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Post Post #949 (isolation #55) » Mon May 20, 2013 7:51 pm

Post by Regfan »

Yeah, unfortunately seems that way.

Vote: No lynch
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Post Post #954 (isolation #56) » Fri May 24, 2013 10:18 am

Post by Regfan »

Bleh, was kind of really hoping Nekoko was actually mafia. Anyway I'll be out for all of today but I'll carve out some time tomorrow to get around to this game.

Awestfie, I'm pretty sure the no-kill on N2 was due to mafia forgetting to send in an action (Even though it makes little sense it makes more sense than mafia choosing to no-kill on purpose since there's no gain in that whatsoever, especially with a 100% clear at the time (Ms) and a cop claim (Nekoko) which weirdly means that one of Thor and Monty forgot to get around to submit a kill whilst still posting elsewhere in their other games). At this point if you realize that I'm blindingly obvious town then there's no way we can lose this since it means we'd be able to lynch Monty/Thor back to back for a guaranteed win but I'd rather this not go to lylo so I'm going to lay out everything that's going through my mind (Which sadly is a lot) and do a big ISO through their interactions with Irish tomorrow.
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Post Post #960 (isolation #57) » Sun May 26, 2013 12:07 am

Post by Regfan »

I've been caught up studying for the upcoming finals but I'm going to go through everything tonight (4-5 hours from now).
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Post Post #969 (isolation #58) » Sun May 26, 2013 7:58 pm

Post by Regfan »

Sorry, fell asleep last night while doing the reading through, saved a lot of what I got through as a draft though and will finish it tonight.
In post 965, MontyWhittaker wrote:Regfan, I really don't like any of your interaction with Irish whatsoever. Yours or the slot you replaced into, for that matter. Between you and Thor, my vote has to be
This makes no sense whatsoever given that you claim to have a strong town-read on Commando and a stronger town-read on me in combined with the fact that Commandodude mentioned nearly no one in the game given he was nearly never here and the fact that Irish actually attempted to mslynch Commando when he did arrive - You're ignoring a whole other street of interactions there.
In post 962, Ms Marangal wrote:I'm shifty about Reg. all this talk about his Meta and how so Obv town he has been this game is giving me chicken skin.
If you read through my meta you'll notice the obvious difference I'm talking about. A few of my town games are Black Flag Nightless (Where I replaced in on the hydra JT), Newbie 1259, Timeshift Mafia (Where I replaced in) and AdWD and here's a bunch of my scum games Fantasy Camp (Where I replaced in), Post Apocolypic Mafia (Which I'd consider my best scum play ever despite actually losing the game still) and DEFCON 3.
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Post Post #970 (isolation #59) » Sun May 26, 2013 8:37 pm

Post by Regfan »

Monty + Irish


Not sure what to make or Irishs drawing attention to Montys lurking by stating "he posted and left" in , states a scum-read on him in and states it would be worthless to vote Monty since no one would join him in which does come across as distancing (FoSing partner but making up reasons why not to vote them). Monty jumps on the Irish wagon in while not commenting on any other player; works if he thinks that Irish is down and dead and needs to attempt to fit in. Irish bold FoS's in but doesn't thrown down a vote. Here's the really interesting part; In Shawn attacks Monty and lays out a case stating that Monty isn't advancing any reads, stating anything on other players and hasn't offered any new insights, Monty then unvotes Irish in where at the time he was the only person voting Irish, the unvote there works very very very well as a partner to Irish that realizes there's no need to buss anymore and Monty proceeds to stating a scum-read on Shawn. Irish then flips his read on Monty to reasonable and null in and Monty flips his to Irish being in his good graces and Thor and Ms being who he wants to look into in . Day 2 stars and watch how all the reads flip; has Irish voting Monty and stating a scum-read on him and has Monty laying down a case on Irish without mentioning Thor / Ms. The change of reads there look very much like they had a discussion at night stating "I'm going down tomorrow you're going to need to buss me" "Okay we'll push on each other".

I'll go into Thor+Irish interactions later on.
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Post Post #972 (isolation #60) » Sun May 26, 2013 8:47 pm

Post by Regfan »

Tonight after I finish some study + cook dinner (Probably 4 hours?).
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Post Post #974 (isolation #61) » Sun May 26, 2013 10:26 pm

Post by Regfan »

Thor + Irish


Thors push on Irish in , , and points against them being partners, especially given that Irish was the rolecop. Irish's response in of "Do you know something I don't" is weird though and I'm not quite sure he'd say that to a partner, Thors insisting that Irish should be speed lynched points against them being partners too. Irish's read on Thor in is essentially non-existent and does the same thing, he focuses solely on Thors Shawn vote while ignoring Thors suspicion of him. I still find Thors really town (Awestfie I really did want your opinion on this, I don't think you've given it yet). His vote on Irish in is something I think he'd have drawn more attention towards if it was him bussing at scum. Irish's D2 read on Thor in is weird again though but I think him voting his partner as an attempt to distance there makes more sense than just stating they're null-scum.

So interaction-wise I think Monty makes a great deal more sense as Irish's partner than Thor does. I want to go through their individual ISO's once more though.
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Post Post #975 (isolation #62) » Sun May 26, 2013 10:39 pm

Post by Regfan »

I read into Montys meta what feels like a few weeks ago and I was hoping he'd have more completed games by now but he doesn't. I did notice a few things though going back over his meta; he only has two completed games, Robos PYP (Where he was replaced by DV) but he only had 6 posts inside that game and Newbie 1264 where he was mafia and lynched D2 and here's the Mafia QT where he only posted one time during N1 so him being forgetful to send in a night-kill is more likely than Thor forgetting. His Post 180 in that game looks very similar to his in this game too.

So yeah, leaning towards Monty!Scum but still want one more re-read.
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Post Post #977 (isolation #63) » Sun May 26, 2013 11:44 pm

Post by Regfan »

See with Thor I don't have any history of him being inactive or less involved in submitting kills but there is with you; that's why it's much more likely for you to be the one to not submit a kill than him even though the history is based on year-old games. Also you didn't reply to my .
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Post Post #980 (isolation #64) » Sun May 26, 2013 11:59 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 978, MontyWhittaker wrote:And I actually attempted to lynch Irish toward the start of Day 2. I also notice how you are the ever-so-reluctant hammer there. You see, the problem with your claim of Irish and me collaborating for me to bus him is that there were several times in the day that the tide of public opinion were shifting. It would have been easy, what with you making it possible and all, to shift to a Nekoko wagon. Staying on Irish was not an "easy" choice for town.
I was reluctant because I didn't see Nekoko / Irish working as a scum-team and I had a scum-read on Nekoko and was paranoid of her claim; that said I wasn't likely to actually throw down a vote on Nekoko and there was near no chance that she would have ended up getting lynched ie. Irish was always going to get lynched - the delay was mostly so I could have a conversation and get reads from Awestfie which she afk'ed out of giving, so no you wouldn't have been able to 'shift votes' at all and atht doesn't change the fact that your case on him and his vote on you looks like an attempt to distance knowing he'd get lynched.
In post 978, MontyWhittaker wrote:I can't see a Thor/Irish scumteam, but I can sure as hell see a Reg/Irish. Look at just this recent post..."Irish attempted to mslynch Commando". Since your first post, you have been trying to nullify the possibility that you are scum with the wording you've chosen, it seems that you've found a way to include yourself with the Town group in each and every post. My vote is staying where it is.
You've ignored a lot of interactions and are attempting to pretend they're not there; you've ignored anything from Irish towards Commando and here you're attempting to de-credit the point by saying "You're bringing it up to prove you're not scum!" which of course I'm doing, given Commandos posts, Irishs push on Commando as well as my own play and meta it should be blindingly obvious that I'm town (I think Awetsfie knows it too and the sad thing is I think she's attempting to troll the game by not saying it out loud), that combined with something else is really really irritating me right now.
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Post Post #981 (isolation #65) » Mon May 27, 2013 12:01 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 979, MontyWhittaker wrote:Looking at the No Kill by the scum, it's interesting to note that while, yes, both Irish and I were posting in the interim of that night, you were not. You have zero posts in any games, any content whatsoever on the site until the No Kill is revealed the next day.
This is the only game I'm in and I generally don't post anywhere on the site other than in games. I only play 1-2 games at a time so I can give the games 100% of my effort which involves checking on the game every few hours (Even during the night-phase; I constantly check to see when the nights ending and I check up on a few other games I'm following alongside it). Heck, the fact that I was the one to hammer ie. Last online before night-started and first to post when day started, heck the fact that I posted 6 minutes after day started should be enough proof that I was constantly checking on the thread and am town.
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Post Post #984 (isolation #66) » Mon May 27, 2013 12:12 am

Post by Regfan »

That vote on Nekoko wasn't on D2, that was on D3 when Awestfie claimed JK which made Nekoko confirmed mafia.

And let me get this right; You're stating that I check the thread every few hours as scum but
not send in a night-kill.
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Post Post #986 (isolation #67) » Mon May 27, 2013 12:15 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 985, MontyWhittaker wrote:No, as I stated, I am saying that you had gotten on to send the kill, but realized that the mod had already posted a No-Kill.
So you're saying I randomly got online 6 minutes after the day started while never checking the thread at night to find out when day starts or checking it casually?
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Post Post #987 (isolation #68) » Mon May 27, 2013 12:17 am

Post by Regfan »

To add to that you're saying I randomly checked the thread at 3;30am (That's the time day started for me).
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Post Post #990 (isolation #69) » Mon May 27, 2013 12:23 am

Post by Regfan »

So lets get this completely 100% right because I'm struggling to see how you can believe what you're saying here for half a second; you're stating that I'm scum that forgot the game but decided to randomly check it at 3;30am my time rather than the case that I'm town, was checking the thread constantly every few hours and thus came online exactly when day started.
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Post Post #992 (isolation #70) » Mon May 27, 2013 12:44 am

Post by Regfan »

See, explain your Thor-Irish "Not a team" other than Thors vote on Irish. Also explain Irish's interaction with Commando being scum.

And No-killing purposefully is idiotic, 1/4 chance the cop gets a guilty that creates a 100% town win and a 3/4 chance of getting an innocent; an innocent changes the odds of a town win from being 3/4 x 2/3 = 50% to 2/3 x 1/2 = 66.7% not to mention Awestfies predecessor made a 100% town-slip making any innocent that's not on Awestfie an autoloss for mafia meaning they'd be looking at a 3/4 chance of 100% losing and a 1/4 chance of having a 33.3% chance of winning.

So you're literally accusing me of forgetting to submit a kill in my only game (Where I limit myself to a single game solely to give it 100% effort); the game where I hammered and was thus last online before the scene was up and was online and posted 6 minutes after the next day started at 3;30am my time.
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Post Post #996 (isolation #71) » Mon May 27, 2013 12:51 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 995, awestfie wrote:Wait, do you both town-read Thor?
Yeah, I lean towards Monty making much more sense as scum than Thor + I think Montys push on me here is incredibly contrived.

I'm going to do the dishes (I'll be back in 30-40 minutes) if you want to talk. In the meantime read post 452 I think (?) from Thor and let me know what you think.
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #72) » Mon May 27, 2013 1:34 am

Post by Regfan »

Awestfie, I read Thors as a strong town-tell because it's the sort of post I make pretty much only as town, I get worried about an impending night-kill and want to leave behind reads and thoughts in case I do die whereas as scum I don't do it at all - I also think the 'interaction hunting' ie. Shaun not being partners with Irish/Commandodude is something that town do considerably more than scum. Oh and the fact that scum forgot to submit a kill shouldn't be the
only
reason you think I'm town, you know my meta better than most people though probably not as well as (Empire / Tierce / Tammy ect know it).
In post 997, MontyWhittaker wrote:Reg, all I saw with commandodude was what appeared to be a deliberate choice to not mention Irish whatsoever.
I'm asking you to look at the reverse ie. Irishs's interactions with Commandodude.
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #73) » Mon May 27, 2013 1:48 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 1002, awestfie wrote:Oh, and I still don't understand why you think is townie, cause I honestly don't see it, it may apply to your meta, but why does it apply to Thor? You say it's something
you
would be less inclined to do as scum, so how does that magically apply to Thor?
It's something I've found to relate to a lot of other people - it's not just a 'personal tell' but rather one that's quite strong generally.
In post 1003, awestfie wrote:And why should I town-read you, Regfan?
Apparently you weren't happy with what you thought was my town-read on you, so please; tell me why you're town.
You are trolling me now, aren't you?
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Post Post #1006 (isolation #74) » Mon May 27, 2013 1:49 am

Post by Regfan »

I think you're just trying to piss me of and I think that was your intention the second you replaced in.
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Post Post #1010 (isolation #75) » Mon May 27, 2013 1:58 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 1007, awestfie wrote:Things just didn't go my way; anyways, you're sure on
Thor
Monty being scum, yeah?
No, I'm not sure - if I was I'd have voted but I do lean that way; I think interaction-wise he fits better, I think in likelihood of forgetting to submit a kill he fits better and I think his push on me here is contrived as fuck - the fact that he's literally stating he believes I'd have to randomly check the thread at 3;30am my time is such a stretch that I think Town!Monty would have stepped back and realized he was wrong there.
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Post Post #1015 (isolation #76) » Mon May 27, 2013 2:11 am

Post by Regfan »

Awestfie, try and explain your Monty town-read for me (In as much detail as possible please) - The "OMGUS doesn't read as a scum-tell" doesn't do much for me.

PEdit: Monty explain to me why you didn't look at Irish's interactions with Commando earlier ie. When you did Irish-Thor? Because looking at Commandodude and saying "He didn't interact with Irish much" and using that as your reasoning behind placing a vote on me earlier is massively opportunistic and partial-information push that ignores the fact that Commando only interacted with maybe 2 players in the whole room.
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Post Post #1016 (isolation #77) » Mon May 27, 2013 2:17 am

Post by Regfan »

Also Monty I know you attempted to explain it yesterday in but I need some more depth in it - When D2 started what was your thought process order - I'm assuming given that you stated a scum-read or a "Need to look at read" on Ms and Thor you focused on reading into them initially, why did you not comment at the time that you gained X and Y from those reads or didn't gain anything at all. And I assume you
then
moved on to reading Irish; what made you decide to make a case by quote->quote because I don't see that anywhere else from you (Albeit the sample size is small) - the case just seems like a buss attempting reading back at it and that's what I need explained to me.
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #78) » Mon May 27, 2013 2:34 am

Post by Regfan »

Well I'm going to go for a run; I tend to think best when running. I'll be back in about an hour or two.
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Post Post #1025 (isolation #79) » Mon May 27, 2013 4:52 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 1020, awestfie wrote:Are you happy, Regfan? You actually made me re-read. I'm not sure between Monty/Thor now, but I think you're town. ...I'm wrong, aren't I?
You should have re-read ages ago, when you replaced in
only petapan gets away with not having to read the thread and that's because using random.org gives him a better chance of lynching scum than him actually scumhunting.
And no you're not wrong. What bugs me about Montys voting pattern on D1 is that the vote is when there's a wagon on Irish and the unvotes when the wagons disintegrated - it's a way that scum treat a partner a lot. That said thought about it a lot on my run and I think I kind of see what you mean about Montys play today being better than prior days; while a lot of his play is illogical and tunnel-fuelled I can follow part of the thought process in it. I really want to see what Thor has to say other than "He forgot who was confirmed town via reports therefore he's mafia".
In post 1022, awestfie wrote:Although, I do find it curious that for the most part, TheIrishPope didn't have a read on Commandodude, yet still voted him.

Also, I don't understand why you guys didn't lynch TheIrishPope day 1, but; that's another story.
He attempted to pin a Shaun-Commando mslynch and used Commmando being new and not caring about his appearance (Via his "I usually don't take time to go through all the posts" in ) as ammunition to push an easy mslynch. See: for more of Irish pushing the mslynch quickly. And I also don't understand the Shaun lynch, actually frustrated the hell out of me reading through this and seeing him get lynched when he was very genuine and town-told a lot but I don't know if I'd have lynched Irish D1, I'd probably have pushed on Nekoko (I stand by that she contradicted herself by pushing on Shaun with something she did herself in the same very post of hers that she voted him).

Anyway heading to bed, hopefully there's more tomorrow.
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Post Post #1030 (isolation #80) » Tue May 28, 2013 10:39 pm

Post by Regfan »

Sorry, been caught up studying for uni finals. Seem to be waiting on Ms Margaral to catch up with everything at the moment anyway.

Thor; What changed from you stating you think I'm most likely Irish partner in , and to now where you say Monty fits and I don't?
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Post Post #1031 (isolation #81) » Tue May 28, 2013 10:40 pm

Post by Regfan »

Also Monty; Is there a reason your votes still on me given you've stated you have a town-read on me now?
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Post Post #1037 (isolation #82) » Wed May 29, 2013 5:49 pm

Post by Regfan »

Ms, thanks for actually reading the meta (Most people are generally too lazy to do reading
stares at Awestfie
). Monty seems to be on V/LA though he's posted a bit elsewhere, hoping he gets around to this game soon because I want an explanation of why his change-in-reads never led towards an unvote or change in vote.
In post 1033, Thor665 wrote:It's a value call - he feels more likely scum in general.

Why are you voting him over me, since you're the one I was agreeing on about how Monty/Irish didn't work so well? I'd actually forgotten about that till you linked it.
Try and explain the "He feels more scum in general" for me (It has to be based around certain actions) and I want to understand if they're along the same wavelength I'm thinking. Also I never thought Monty and Irish didn't work interactions wise, I thought Nekoko and Irish didn't work. My issue with Monty ect. was that I had a town-read on you and Monty which meant that either Irish wasn't scum or that one of my town-reads were wrong and given that Irish has flipped scum it means one of my town-reads are indeed wrong - If you're asking why I think he's scum over you though I've gone over it a great deal many times throughout the last few pages (Timing of his vote on Irish / unvote fits as partner bussing and then getting of when no longer needed to buss, next day start with them pushing on each other looking like a 'well I'm screwed lets distance' discussion occurred during the night and the fact that he didn't lead out with any read on you and Ms despite saying he wanted to look into you the prior day further points to the 'lets distance' conversation happening and I think he'd be more likely to miss a night kill then you).
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Post Post #1042 (isolation #83) » Thu May 30, 2013 9:53 pm

Post by Regfan »

I'll be out for most of tonight / tomorrow but when I get back hopefully Monty has posted.

Mod, can we have a votecount please? I can't find one on the page...Smooth operator, more like inactive mod.
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Post Post #1051 (isolation #84) » Fri May 31, 2013 6:16 pm

Post by Regfan »

I'll give Monty about another day to return, if he hasn't by then I'll hammer; it's not worth having Tierce find a replacement.
In post 1044, Thor665 wrote:I would say his posting regularity and content is the prime vibe. Town is in a *very* strong position right now, and he's acting like this game is pointless. So...either he's town who literally doesn't give a fig if he wins...or, y'know, scum feeling defeated. Derp. Guess which I think?

So, what are the vibes you're getting?
I wouldn't say he's acting like this game is "pointless" at all - well, not when you had made your vote on him, his inactivity is a very recent thing and that's associated with him being V/LA so I don't really see your reasoning at all. I've gone into the vibes I got from him a lot (Probably 4-5 times?), you should have read it somewhere by now; interaction-wise fitting, push on me today looking like a desperate attempt to get a mslynch while ignoring a lot that happened, the turn-around looking like an appeasement to Awestfie when he saw she wouldn't lynch me, push on Irish at the start of the new day looking like a buss while ignoring his prior day reads ect.
In post 1044, Thor665 wrote:Why? I have a history of botched night actions last I checked.
..I don't remember you botching up night actions at all. Got a link for me?
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Post Post #1054 (isolation #85) » Fri May 31, 2013 6:51 pm

Post by Regfan »

I'll give you #1. Though with #2 I think his push on me and vote in was him attempting to use partial interactions (One way interactions of Commando->Irish and not Irish->Commando) because he thought that reasoning would best get him a mslynch; with you he didn't have one-way interactions he could manipulate into attempting to read like a scum-tell) and I think he clung onto this as long as possible despite me constantly telling him to go and read the interactions the other way. I also think his "Turn-around" of opinions when he saw Awestfie wasn't going to lynch me to saying you're scum but keeping a vote on me is massively ungenuine.

And with #3, I want to see the context of you 'botching up night-actions' and see if they're at all similar to this game.
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Post Post #1058 (isolation #86) » Fri May 31, 2013 7:06 pm

Post by Regfan »

I'm not following nearly anything of what you said in that post... There are plenty of different 'situations' of botched night actions, mainly the things I want to look at is if you were online and posting elsewhere when you botched actions in the past and if it was in situations where you were solo-scum or was it due to expecting a partner to submit them ect.
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Post Post #1061 (isolation #87) » Fri May 31, 2013 7:15 pm

Post by Regfan »

There's no way to research every single one of your games to find where you botched night actions and honestly with a final coming up in two days I don't have time to devote 5-6 hours of hunting when simply asking for a link is much simpler. And sure, you could provide links to create a certain outlook but literally
any
information that you give me would be more than I currently have about the history of you forgetting actions since I don't remember you doing it at all.
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Post Post #1063 (isolation #88) » Fri May 31, 2013 7:21 pm

Post by Regfan »

No? While it's not going to give me 100% information it still gives me more than I currently have and I can assess it's complete relevance when I actually get the links.

(And I still want the links)
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Post Post #1065 (isolation #89) » Fri May 31, 2013 7:24 pm

Post by Regfan »

I'll do one of your little narrations for you:

Reg - Montys more likely to miss a night kill than Thor given that I found a QT of Montys as scum where he was fairly inactive.
Thor - I've botched night actions before.
Reg - Can I see them?
Thor - You're fake scumhunting!!
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Post Post #1066 (isolation #90) » Fri May 31, 2013 7:25 pm

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Yes, Monty has 2 completed games so getting meta and history on him is easy and quick. You have 100's of completed games. Not something I have time to sift through.
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Post Post #1069 (isolation #91) » Fri May 31, 2013 7:35 pm

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Why I think Monty is mafia isn't based solely around him being more likely to forget a kill than you - there's a lot to it. That still doesn't mean that I don't want to see the links to the games where you're 'forgotten night-actions' and asking "Was it as scum with a kill" is literally the same asking for the links (How you're attempting to differentiate them is something I'll never comprehend). And yes; I do think you admitting that you've forgotten things in the past blatantly when had you not said it I'd have never known is townish but looking at the links and the situations in the past will make me feel a lot more at ease.

End of story is I really really don't want this to go to a 3 way lylo (Despite playing 50 or so games at the site I've only been in a 3 way lylo 1 time as town and was mylnched in it and it's really not something I ever want to see repeated) and that means getting absolutely all the information I can today.
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Post Post #1070 (isolation #92) » Fri May 31, 2013 7:38 pm

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And fuck. I don't want someone to have to replace in for 30 minutes of play before we lynch them.
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Post Post #1072 (isolation #93) » Fri May 31, 2013 7:48 pm

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If you need an example that I either prefer to find the information myself or ask for links there's Nekokos cop claim earlier (I found the QT for one game and asked for the other where by your logic I could just ask "Do you breadcrumb or discuss it as mafia") - I find links and actual context from them better than a "Yes" or "No" answer from a player. And I do think the lack of kill is a factor; it's not something I've seen in any of my games.

Anyway sadly your obstinance here reads town and I'm pretty sure he fits perfectly as scum so there's no point having a newer player replace in to get lynched so:

Vote: Monty
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Post Post #1095 (isolation #94) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:07 pm

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I’m going to pre-type this because right now I’m incredibly irritated and want to make sure I have this down before some stuff shit happens at day start (And if I had to take a guess who dies I’d say it’ll be Awestfie given that Ms has a town-read on Thor and paranoia over me for god knows what reasons which in all likelihood given what I’ve seen of her play elsewhere is none). I’ll try and make this as clear and concise as possible but long story short is this should be one of the easiest three ways ever.

1) The no-kill: (Thor attempted to de-emphasise the importance of this at the end of yesterday with “You’re trying to make this a big deal” in when the fact it is it’s a massive part of the game and he knows that it makes me incredibly obvtown so he has to downplay it as much as possible). The fact that I was online 6 minutes after day-start[/Post] which is at 3:30am my time (Don’t believe me, check; I live in Sydney) should prove 100% that I was constantly checking the thread throughout the night and keeping note of when the day would start which should prove that it’d be impossible for me to accidently forget to send in a kill. Then if you’re going to go with the “Oh you no-killed on purpose” dumb as fuck angle I’ll run through the statistics again that I did in where there’s a ¼ chance of a cop getting a guilty creating autowin for town and a ¾ chance of getting an innocent changing the odds of a town win from ½ to 2/3 changing the overall win chance for scum being 50% towards 0.25 x 100 + 0.75 x 0.66 = 75% not to mention in I’d pointed out how Dino/Awestfies slot was 100% town meaning any investigation other than Awestfie would have been a 100% town win. Not to mention that I play only one game at a time generally (Sometimes 2) so that I can give games my full effort ie. I'd never miss a kill as mafia. In fact I've never missed an action in any of my 50 games nor have I ever replaced out of a single game; that should show you how much effort I give to my games.

2) Commandodude: This dude was literally blindingly obvious town, look at the sheer genuineness in and the lack of care of how he's perceived by others in is him legitimately thinking an IC has to be mafia (Which you can kind of see the reasoning behind) and the genuineness in again, he's a incredibly transparent confused noob-townie.

3) Irishs's interactions with Commandodude: Look at how quickly he jumps on the chance of getting a quiet-noob mslynch in , is clearly not him talking about a team-mate and his rush to get a lynch in should make it even more obvious that this slot is town (Irish would know that he can't win the game solo given the amount of suspicion put towards him and wouldn't be hard-bussing a partner D1 - this is actually an incredibly strong point).

4) My play: I'm probably one of the most transparent people on the site in that my scum and town meta are so far apart and that I don't enjoy being scum so I tend to put in less effort than when I'm town (I literally cannot get the game out of my head as town and it's probably unhealthy but I was thinking about this game on runs, in the shower, when I couldn't sleep and yeah typing this out it does sound incredibly sad
Empire is worse than me though!
. And in this game I think it's obvious that I'm town from all that - not to mention things like hunting around for Nekokos scum games QTs to see if she considers breadcrumbing and fake-claiming cop isn't something I'd do as scum, nor is instantly looking to see if Thor or Monty were online overnight or looking through Montys games QTs.

Woke up to post this, going back to bed now but first:

Vote: Thor
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Post Post #1102 (isolation #95) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:39 pm

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In post 1099, awestfie wrote:Regfan, you left me alive to make fun of me if I ended up not hammering you, didn't you?
No, though I think him keeping you alive is a massive mistake (I think he's trying to play the WIFOM game given that he knows I'm incredibly obvious town and needs a hail mary to save him - it's likely why he also said he misses night actions so he can go "Why would I say that as scum!!").
In post 1101, awestfie wrote:I will hammer this right, don't worry town.
You better, this really isn't a difficult one. The fact that I was online 6 minutes after the no-kill at 3;30 my time should prove beyond doubt that I couldn't have missed a night-kill and you know that I wouldn't purposely no-kill as mafia with a cop alive.
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Post Post #1104 (isolation #96) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:41 pm

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Yeah, I just woke up a few minutes ago.
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Post Post #1106 (isolation #97) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:42 pm

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Not if you're going to hammer Thor (Also PS: He just attempted to massively mis-rep my entire reasoning by changing what it is I was saying).
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Post Post #1108 (isolation #98) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:43 pm

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I don't understand how you're acting like this is a difficult decision?
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Post Post #1110 (isolation #99) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:44 pm

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Not at all? This is blindingly obvious (If you haven't read Commandodude before, ISO him now).
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #100) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:45 pm

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Also go re-read a few times.
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Post Post #1114 (isolation #101) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:47 pm

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I'm hoping (And from memory) that is Thors scum (If not, seriously do that reading).
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Post Post #1115 (isolation #102) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:48 pm

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Yes, literally non-stop.
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Post Post #1116 (isolation #103) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:52 pm

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Look; Go read that post and Commandos ISO, then if you have any doubts whatsoever voice them and we'll go over them.
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Post Post #1119 (isolation #104) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:54 pm

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Thank god.
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Post Post #1126 (isolation #105) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 5:21 pm

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Very glad it's over. Was enjoyable to begin with but MM's paranoia over me (Which in the dead QT was for being "too townie") aggravated the hell out of me and made me actually worried that I'd be mslynched despite my predecessor being very blatant town and very blatant non-partners with Irish. Not to mention the no-kill is something I'd never let happen in a million years as scum (Especially with a claimed cop alive....).

Also think Shawn should ignore Thors mafia QT comment that his play would have got him lynched in other situations - it wouldn't and shouldn't have; you played relatively well, the only issue of yours was the "Too scummy to be scum" logical fallacy, other than that you were transparent town and should never have been lynched (People just needed to look at your motivations and intent to realize you were town).
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Post Post #1131 (isolation #106) » Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:42 pm

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Awestfie is still a troll.
In post 1127, Sakura Hana wrote:Well i was spectating here most of the time due to being NK'd N1 :P
I think you'd probably have died even if you didn't doc-tell given that you were incredibly obvtown and active (Which is a good thing).
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