NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[penguin_alien]

Replacing in and confirming role receipt.

First order of business,

UNVOTE: Nachomamma8

Pending me at least getting a sense of what's gone down thus far. I'll aim to be on top of things in 12 hours with a full read-through before deadline. In the meantime if there's anything anyone wants addressed based on previous posts from this slot, let me know.

[penguin_alien]

Not caught up yet (shocking, I know, with 90+ pages) but based on more recent posts I'm not seeing Desperado as likely scum, nor does the case on Nachomamma8 track very well to me. Oversoul's 'gambit' strikes me most as a good way for scum to smoke out vigs not necessarily by claims but by reactions. As such, I think it's lousy. It also seems like a calculate risk, in that since it happened so early, any blowback was likely to have passed before a lynch materialized. His posts since then are dodgy, and he isn't coming at this with a consistent mindset:

We can just lynch Desperado.

I haven't looked at him.
What are his sins?

I checked--we're the third-longest D1 ever on site, and counting. Yay, us?

Oh my god, it's still day one.

Ok if deadline is in 6 days, that might be a bit tight. I see that Desperado, penguin_alien and nachomamma are the three leading votees. Can someone/s be kind enough to explain the cases on each of them?

No wonder I want to kill myself in this game.

VOTE: Oversoul

Slaandar, do you really think Thor665 being nitpicky is indicative of him being scum? From what I've seen of him, he's a serial tunneler who pushes for reactions. It's not very alignment-indicative.

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Oversoul

I'm good waiting to see how his play develops.

Bacde and Red Ryu, what does each of you think is the single top piece of evidence that Nachomamma8 is scum?

Amethyst Kitty, do you think Desperado is scum after the last couple pages?

[penguin_alien]

Did anyone get a message from Syryana confirming his alignment? If not then I'm guessing that Seanald-scum or someone in his mafia did.

My understanding of friendly neighbor is that Syryana would have sent out a message confirming self as town. So presumably that message would only go out to a town read of Syryana's. Why would scum want to keep quiet about effectively being a town read of Syryana's?

Cephir's pointing out the fuzzy-Haylen links with Red Ryu tracks to me. I'm good with pressure there.

VOTE: Haylen

CTD, given your presumed interactions with Slandaar, what's your take on his current back-and-forth with Thor665?

[penguin_alien]

@Thor665, you asked about my take on the BatB-ffullisade slot a while ago. I'm pretty certain I haven't played a game where Majiffy or pirate mollie was scum, and from a meta POV they seem(ed) similar to their respective town play. In terms of the actual arguments, notably where you interact with the hydra, there seem to be some legit views there getting lost amid a burning desire to be right on all sides. Kind of what I'm getting out of a lot of you and Slandaar going back and forth, actually. Lots of focus on whose narrative to believe and less focus on whether the differences of interpretation or remembering facts is scummy or not. That's my overall impression, although I freely admit that I stopped reading the BatB hydra near the end of the day last day phase when things got hostile.

More specifically, looking back at fullisade's ISO, the sketchiest thing is fery coming in and talking about having read Red Ryu as scum off the first few pages of the game. The flip happened, it's not exactly going out on a limb to note a scum read there. The other player she mentions having a read on is Nachomamma8. If the evolution of events was that she read the beginning of the game over night phase and saw Red Ryu and Nacho as scummy, then saw one of them flip scum where (as far as I can tell) her reads on them aren't related, I'd expect to see a decent amount of confidence in the Nacho read. Instead there's not a lot of pushing there, with more recent posts looking to relate to Nachomamma8 as town if I'm reading right. That could be the pirate mollie head though.

Otherwise I don't have any reason to think ffullisade is scum right now.

WRT Bacde's case for thazmon221 being scum:

What kind of posts are you reading? I never implied you're scum. I think you're delusional and useless town.

YES!

Town, I saved you. Thank me later. LOL! this is great

He just literally lied because he can't keep track of his opinions that are displayed in his posts. Lets look at this gem right here:

In post 3044, thezmon221 wrote:1) You know who doesn't have reads that change after flips (especially two flips)? Scum. Scum doesn't need to change their reads. Your case on Nacho is exactly the same as it was D1: Crap.


This is Thezmon's argument:

1) Bacde does A
2) Scum do A

3 (assumption) Town is much less likely to do A

4) (inference/implication) Bacde is scum

Yet he denies it.

Sheep Bacde. Scumhunting made easy.

No, not really. I think you're town, though dumb and useless. I always have, and quite possibly will for a while. The fact that I presented an action to you and clearly stated that scum did it was to garner interest from you, as well as to see where your motivations lie since you're stubborn. You see, it's been debated, even here in this thread, that dumb/useless town can be synonymous with scum. It's a gray area, so I'm trying to discern between the two and make sure I am on the correct side of the spectrum.

Irrespective of thazmon221's claim, which I don't entirely swallow, Bacde, you're completely ruling out any type of reaction test being used there? Because it seems to me that if you want to get someone's attention, you're more likely to succeed if you suggest you think they're outright scum rather than anti-town.

thazmon221, on the other hand, why didn't you use your vote to pressure Bacde in that situation, since it seems like he was doing something you found scummy?

There are ways to paint me as scum, but this isn't one of them. The point absolutely remains, the point being that if thez was actually a Universal Backup, one way or another, he should have been notified that he is now backing something up, which doesn't seem to have occurred. If you think I legitimately believe thez to be scum, what does it matter how I push him unless you want to argue that it's not genuine? (Which you're not)

Cephrir, why do you say that thazmon221 isn't activated as a back-up to a dead non-VT, specifically the first one killed?

[penguin_alien]

Spoiler: my post @ 3279 spoilered to save space

@Thor665, you asked about my take on the BatB-ffullisade slot a while ago. I'm pretty certain I haven't played a game where Majiffy or pirate mollie was scum, and from a meta POV they seem(ed) similar to their respective town play. In terms of the actual arguments, notably where you interact with the hydra, there seem to be some legit views there getting lost amid a burning desire to be right on all sides. Kind of what I'm getting out of a lot of you and Slandaar going back and forth, actually. Lots of focus on whose narrative to believe and less focus on whether the differences of interpretation or remembering facts is scummy or not. That's my overall impression, although I freely admit that I stopped reading the BatB hydra near the end of the day last day phase when things got hostile.

More specifically, looking back at fullisade's ISO, the sketchiest thing is fery coming in and talking about having read Red Ryu as scum off the first few pages of the game. The flip happened, it's not exactly going out on a limb to note a scum read there. The other player she mentions having a read on is Nachomamma8. If the evolution of events was that she read the beginning of the game over night phase and saw Red Ryu and Nacho as scummy, then saw one of them flip scum where (as far as I can tell) her reads on them aren't related, I'd expect to see a decent amount of confidence in the Nacho read. Instead there's not a lot of pushing there, with more recent posts looking to relate to Nachomamma8 as town if I'm reading right. That could be the pirate mollie head though.

Otherwise I don't have any reason to think ffullisade is scum right now.

WRT Bacde's case for thazmon221 being scum:

What kind of posts are you reading? I never implied you're scum. I think you're delusional and useless town.

YES!

Town, I saved you. Thank me later. LOL! this is great

He just literally lied because he can't keep track of his opinions that are displayed in his posts. Lets look at this gem right here:

In post 3044, thezmon221 wrote:1) You know who doesn't have reads that change after flips (especially two flips)? Scum. Scum doesn't need to change their reads. Your case on Nacho is exactly the same as it was D1: Crap.


This is Thezmon's argument:

1) Bacde does A
2) Scum do A

3 (assumption) Town is much less likely to do A

4) (inference/implication) Bacde is scum

Yet he denies it.

Sheep Bacde. Scumhunting made easy.

No, not really. I think you're town, though dumb and useless. I always have, and quite possibly will for a while. The fact that I presented an action to you and clearly stated that scum did it was to garner interest from you, as well as to see where your motivations lie since you're stubborn. You see, it's been debated, even here in this thread, that dumb/useless town can be synonymous with scum. It's a gray area, so I'm trying to discern between the two and make sure I am on the correct side of the spectrum.

Irrespective of thazmon221's claim, which I don't entirely swallow, Bacde, you're completely ruling out any type of reaction test being used there? Because it seems to me that if you want to get someone's attention, you're more likely to succeed if you suggest you think they're outright scum rather than anti-town.

thazmon221, on the other hand, why didn't you use your vote to pressure Bacde in that situation, since it seems like he was doing something you found scummy?

There are ways to paint me as scum, but this isn't one of them. The point absolutely remains, the point being that if thez was actually a Universal Backup, one way or another, he should have been notified that he is now backing something up, which doesn't seem to have occurred. If you think I legitimately believe thez to be scum, what does it matter how I push him unless you want to argue that it's not genuine? (Which you're not)

Cephrir, why do you say that thazmon221 isn't activated as a back-up to a dead non-VT, specifically the first one killed?

^scum

scum scum scum scum

penguin person you made a post like this similar to the one you made in rach's game. I overlooked it cos frankly I was simply grateful that I was not the only girl in the game. I am not overlooking it this time.

I'm town here, so I have no idea what you're talking about. And I seem to recall Maenara was in that game anyways most of the way regarding the gender balance; by the time she was out, it was pretty much all over.

Looking back at the Street Racers large theme, it's worth noting that thazmon221 was on a team with someone who used Universal Back-Up as a fake claim and got away with it for quite some time. The QT doesn't indicate that it was his idea per se, but he was involved in the fake claim discussion.

I was leery that he could be trying to outright avoid claiming his inherited 2-shot BP, since it's far less useful when known, but at this close to being lynched, it doesn't seem like he'd have anything to lose. And his not doing so when he got to L-1 means he really can't be given any credence.

thazmon221, on the other hand, why didn't you use your vote to pressure Bacde in that situation, since it seems like he was doing something you found scummy?

Because this method worked. No need to put my vote in a spot for pressure when pressure is already applied.

And I'm not seeing the pressure involved.

[penguin_alien]

also these people:

nero
perv

^ these 2 were in posh where the traitor IaI heavily breadcrumbed starting in his very first post. they look a lot like rena's I mean I would be worried that scum would up on it and nk me for sure.

talking things out with fery

I had a front row seat in Posh Mafia for that cop fake claim too and bought it hook, line, and sinker. Which makes me leery less of the role claim and more of the aggressive crumbing. On the other hand, we've had several PR flips, two of which involve players visiting (role cop, friendly neighbor) so faking results would get pretty dicey if there are proportionally more PRs likely active. Especially on Bacde. Not loving the preemptive defense, but I think we can let Rena alone for at least this day phase.

I don't want to lynch in the neighbors, but I don't get why PV and ThAd can't give us the gist of why they are so sure they're in a town-town neighborhood.

I have to batten down the hatches for a storm here, but I'll try to get online later tonight if possible to get a better handle on the rest of the game.

[penguin_alien]

@penguin

I am sorry I forgot you were in that game too. that was one of points was the aggressive roleclaiming. a watcher claim can be pulled off we saw it gears when messiah claimed on d1. he claimed a one shot though. I agree we probably shouldn't lynch her today but I just want to go on record that I think she is scum. she is exhibiting classic scum behaviour and if I had the confidence I would push for her lynch but I don't, mostly cos I don't know her.

Eh, not a game I'd want to be remembered for. I mean, kudos to IaI and the scum team, but being duped by a fake cop twice and mislynched at Lylo, hardly a shining moment.

Meta knowledge aside, it seems possible that Rena (hope your brother's OK) showing classic scum behavior might be more a side effect of having a PR and the overlap that can happen there. And I can't find where Messiah claims he's only one-shot. That is a game where the opposing scum faction had a Ninja, like Red Ryu, so another point where Rena could be claiming with a scum PR.

Human Destroyer, why the vote with no comment on the role claim? Your ISO has you saying that fuzzy was useless and shouldn't make it to endgame, but you don't say anything about why Rena was a good lynch, particularly in light of being an un-CC'd PR.

I'm not getting the Nachomamma8 case, even with reading my predecessor's ISO. It seems to be based on the idea that Bacde and Nachomamma8 are bussing each other, but since there's no proof that either is scum, it reads like a circular argument.

[penguin_alien]

PA- defended thez after his claim; end of 3279 sounds potentially like someone who helped thez craft his claim (doesn't see the glaring issues with it, possibly wasn't paying attention when thez botched it). Likely partner, because if you're PA, who is widely suspected and grade A useless, if you're scum with only thez, your only play is to try to save him.

I saw the issues, if by that you mean that he claimed it hadn't kicked in yet despite us being down a couple PRs. I was initially accounting for the possibility that he'd gotten the BP after Oversoul's lynch and was trying to eat a bullet at night. His continued insistence that he didn't have anything when he had nothing to lose at L-1 changed my mind in combination with him having been on a scum team that used Universal Back-Up as a fake claim in a game I played with him before.

Cephrir, how likely is it that Rena is blue scum who claimed Watcher while on a team with Red Ryu? It seems massively improbable to me, especially given that no one's CC'd her.

I'm also not seeing what Om would have to gain by arguing for thez's survival for another night if he knew the claim was false unless scum has a protective role. The only part of this:

Lynching Thez right now isn't a good idea whether he's scum or not. Someone vig him tonight. If he's lying scum, then he dies. If he's town then it means we're not wasting a lynch on a townie. If he got the BP role unknowingly, then he survives. If he actually did get the Friendly Neighbour role then we'll have someone able to confirm him as town tomorrow.

that doesn't track is the Friendly Neighbour part, since presumably thez would be dead and so confirmed anyways.

It's a bit scummy, but it doesn't seem like a great payoff unless blue scum has a protective role. In which case I'd have thought they'd have used it on their Ninja and prevented his death.

As far as ThAd and Slandaar go, Slandaar seems to be trying to make a case for ThAd being red scum on a day where it sounds like consensus is that we want to lynch the potentially last blue scum. Given that you're showing where ThAd could be blue, I don't know why bluescum-Slandaar wouldn't go with that slant on the analysis.

Which leaves me thinking ThAd is a pretty good candidate for getting rid of all the blue scum, and even if it's not that optimal case, he stands a better-than-random chance of being red scum. So either we take a stab at eliminating a scum faction or get a red flip to get a toehold on that team. I didn't want to lynch into the neighbors at this juncture, but he and PV's weird purported interactions in their QT

I don't know about Bacde still, but I do know that his play was scummy enough as town in just-completed Mini 1439 to eat a vig bullet Night One. Although it overlapped with scum killing him too, it leaves me disinclined to lynch him here. The thing about Nacho is that if he was scum here, given the pressure he was putting on Baby Spice and that as scum he's successfully pushed town-me's lynch, I wouldn't think he'd have me in his town pile now. At best I'd expect scum-Nachomamma8 to keep me as a less forceful read he could try to run up later.

VOTE: ThAdmiral

[penguin_alien]

Eh, I don't think I buy the vig claim, but I agree with those who say that if it's not dead or proven overnight we know where to lynch.

UNVOTE: ThAdmiral

ffullisade, do your points about the AK hydra members still apply when they're working together? Because while I have yet to play in a hydra, one of the advantages seems to be the ability to rein in each other's bad habits. You said mara was that way in a hydra, but mala wasn't in that hydra, right?

[penguin_alien]

Not seeing scum-Mala replacing out under pressure based on my experience playing with her before. Which kills the burgeoning scum read I had there. And I hate the Nachomamma8 wagon, not least because of ThAdmiral's vote that he follows by saying there's nothing pointing to bluescum Nacho or showing anything scummy there at all.

I just don't buy that he's a vig.

VOTE: ThAdmiral

(Having made some egregious brain slips of my own in past games as town, I don't know how much stock I put in the KK error.)

[penguin_alien]

In post 3962, penguin_alien wrote:I just don't buy that he's a vig.


Do you think that he's a serial killer? Otherwise, there's no reason you should vote him today.

Could be. Given that the Night Two flavor included someone being smurfed rather than shot where we had two instances of 'shot' Night One, it could have been a vig + scum Night One and SK + vig/scum Night Two. The multiple blue scum flips would make it more likely that there's another full scum team in the default red color, but that doesn't preclude scum + scum N1 and scum + SK N2, with something interfering with the missing shots. And if ThAdmiral is an SK, he certainly has little to lose in claiming vig. More likely he's gambiting Mafia though, as I'd think in a closed set-up an SK would avoid the fake-vig claim.

His attitude just doesn't suggest someone who knows he'll be vindicated next day phase and so is trying to be useful in the meantime. He seems to think he won't get a shot off, which since town would be waiting for him to prove himself reads as though he thinks scum will be gunning for him. If it is the more likely multiball, I'd think scum would want him upping the overall kill count, since any existing scum faction would be a significant minority. So why wouldn't he expect to get a shot off?

Then looking back at his ISO, though, he expresses skepticism about other vig claims and says that he doesn't think a vig hit Syryana even though he thinks one is present.

I'd feel better unvoting if ThAdmiral wasn't defaulting to the assumption that he won't make it through the next day phase so why bother doing anything, but since you're right that he's not a likely SK,

UNVOTE: ThAdmiral

I'm up for following Slandaar's case on the PV slot. It's pretty suspect to me that in his four posts since his neighbor claimed vig he's not at all interested in addressing the claim.

VOTE: PeregrineV

[penguin_alien]

ArcAngel9, which poor reasonings?

[penguin_alien]

I suppose of the options to lynch among the neighbors, I'd rather lynch one whose own co-neighbor finds him scummy, although the PeregrineV-ThAdmiral mutual admiration society still makes me leery.

And I don't see how Seanald voting someone for something he finds annoying rather than scummy is town-motivated.

UNVOTE: PeregrineV
VOTE: Seanald

[penguin_alien]

I suppose of the options to lynch among the neighbors, I'd rather lynch one whose own co-neighbor finds him scummy, although the PeregrineV-ThAdmiral mutual admiration society still makes me leery.

And I don't see how Seanald voting someone for something he finds annoying rather than scummy is town-motivated.

UNVOTE: PeregrineV
VOTE: Seanald

Why is it scum-motivated though?

Easy reason to help push a wagon while being able to backtrack later under the guise of having wanted to pressure AK into changing their posting behavior rather than lynching. Which is pretty much what happened.

[penguin_alien]

ArcAngel9, what's your reason for having Seanald as your top scum read?

Desperado, given that Seanald hasn't responded to any of the people who think he's scum since he appealed to you, what's your take on him independent of his wagon composition?

[penguin_alien]

ArcAngel9, what changed from here:

Vote: Amethyst Kitty

AK is not dying today.. Seanald is today's lynch!!!
Stop pushing counter wagons!!!!!!!!

to here:

I strongly recommend peop0le to lynch in the below order....

Cephrir
Desperado
Seanald
Bulb

I bet this will work!!!!

[penguin_alien]

Fun fact: The last time there was a crash that resulted in data loss, I was also modding a game. Is this a sign from above, that I should never mod again? Heck no! It's merely a sign of how awesome my games are; they're so volatile, the site crashes trying to handle them!

I love you sometimes.

<<< Only

some

times? >>>

Not sure I'm particularly interested in the Seanald wagon, but I'll freely admit I haven't read due to lack of time.

Someone want to explain/quote a post explaining?

Thoughts on Seanald over ThAdmiral if you've seen more about that argument?

[penguin_alien]

Is Seanald ever going to get back in here and respond to anything?

The Nero case reads all right to me, and he isn't playing as freely as he was in my most recent games with him where he was town. Nero, you say Bulbazak defended something from AK that he found scummy on you. Given that you are obviously different players, and we have 4000+ posts to work with, why would you expect him to respond to both of you in the exact same way?

Peng:

Are you town?

Yes, although the people-pleasing part of me wants to go form a purple mafia so Cephrir and PeregrineV can both be right.

Who would you be voting if you weren't locked in battle with KK?

Bacde, which demonstrably crappy wagons do you see Nachomamma8 as having led?

[penguin_alien]

@Peng:

y u so lurky?

If I had to pick it's between ThAd, you and Seanald. Your current lurking is bothering me so much it's not even remotely funny.

ThAd is because of a relative tell and the fact he's wanting to shoot CTD who's a decent town read for half the game.

Seanald because he's lurking like hell and there was something in Day 1 I read as a slip by him, but I sent it pass Mara and she told me it looks like paranoid town so I dropped it.

What's your current read on CTD, but also Slandaar?

As much as I like the atmosphere of large games, I find it hard to jump in with anything relevant to say. That plus my generally lousy gut reads don't often leave me holding opinions I want to go after full swing. Nothing better to say in defense of my lurkiness.

CTD is presenting rational arguments with good scum-hunting intent, and his freakout about his neighborhood seemed genuine. He feels different from scum-CTD in the /in-vitational game we played and closer to the town-CTD from Mini 1413. I might not sheep his reads, but he is engaged in a way that is town. WRT Slandaar, I have a weaker town read on him. He didn't try to capitalize on CTD's freakout, and he's looking at the big picture in his scumhunting in a way that jives with the town-Slandaar I've played with. They're the neighborhood I'd least want to lynch into.

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, CTD in combination with Nacho is pretty persuasive. And active scum is more dangerous to us than scum that's been MIA for a week+ if they're both scum.

UNVOTE: Seanald
VOTE: Nero Cain

[penguin_alien]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

ffery, I read this game and I don't think Seanald is scum here.
Do you agree or am I reading too much into his approach?

A quick scan through his ISO there shows a lot of feigned confusion, which lines up with his reaction here to his neighbor buddy pushing on him. What are you seeing as different here?

Nero (and AK, once I steeled myself to read that wall) have some decent points, although I'm not sure how much Nero using humor is a bonafide town tell. With Seanald popping in and out, let's see if he's motivated to address the case on him with more votes.

VOTE: Seanald

[penguin_alien]

This gameday needs to end

VOTE: Sean

Slandaar, did your opinion of Seanald change between this and your most recent town-to-scum list?

[penguin_alien]

Blech, I'd rather lynch ThAdmiral than Bulbazak, although Seanald is preferable to both. Bulbazak's implying that there couldn't be more than one red scum among the neighborhoods is unsettling, though. Bulbazak, why is it not feasible to have two scum-town neighborhoods and one scum-scum neighborhood, for example? Or even two scum-scum neighborhoods? Given that we don't know the complete set-up, why are you so certain that is unbalanced?

[penguin_alien]

...so we have two claimed town PRs saying they were blocked/impeded last night. I doubt the anti-town factions have two blocking abilities, so either one of them is lying or one of their targets interfered with the actions.

ThAd, why did you opt to shoot Bulbazak?

WRT Rena's claim, neither of the kills from last night strike me as likely Watcher targets--why block Rena? Since a ninja has flipped, I'd assume Rena's lack of result could only come from being blocked.

CTD, in light of Slandaar flipping town, a) why shouldn't we have you at the top of the scum list, and b) what's your take on the other neighbors?

[penguin_alien]

Why didn't you join any of the wagons yesterday penguin, your entire play yesterday boiled down to just posturing.

You were my top lynch choice. Still wouldn't mind seeing you swing. And last I saw the thread, Slandaar certainly wasn't on the chopping block. I didn't love the Bulbazak wagon, although if both ThAd and Rena are on the up-and-up, he's less bonafide now. Why should I join a wagon I don't like under a plurality lynch system?

[penguin_alien]

I've been pondering whether EddieFenix breadcrumbed his N1 rolecop results on day 2.

I kinda think he did. And I kinda don't think they were incriminating.

Townzorz are Nero, CTD, Bacde, AK, Ceph

Scumzorz are Bulbazak, ThAd, Rena

The rest of you wish you were cool, but really aren't so much.

I agree with some of this.

- f

What parts do you currently agree with?

Desperado, why do you want AK lynched?

CTD, it seems unlikely to me that a JK would protect the counter-wagon target after a town flip. Is Kublai Khan the type of player who would do that in your experience?

[penguin_alien]

Actually I think it's more likely that if ThAd is a vig the kill on you didn't go through due to him being blocked by an anti-town faction. And since as I've said before, if that's the case I don't see how Rena was also blocked. CTD seems to think another town PR interfered with you getting shot; I disagree barring CTD having insight into Kublai Khan that says he would have done that. Since with a town JK, I'd be surprised if there was a town doctor or RB in play. And in particular a town RB shouldn't have been interfering with ThAd.

[penguin_alien]

who are you scumreading right now penguin

Rena, oddly enough. I see no reason for her to have been blocked by a pro-town role; even if a JK was trying to prevent a NK, getting info from a PR should trump the risk of losing them IMO. So that leaves scum to have blocked her. But neither NK (ArcAngel9, Kublai Khan) fit the profile of her past claimed target of Bacde after he claimed vig. So why block her? Maybe to prevent her seeing anyone visiting ThAd, but since none of the scum apparently tried to kill him, the only role that we have reason to suspect visited him would be...a roleblocker? Which means it's exceedingly unlikely that another scum roleblock was around to block Rena in the first place.

I don't know if a game with a Ninja usually has both a Watcher and a Tracker; if not, it isn't inconceivable that Rena opted to gamble that one wouldn't be around and fake-claimed.

VOTE: Rena

Rena, how do you explain not getting a result?

CTD's response to my question seemed all right. AK having been so gung-ho on wanting Kublai Khan lynched, then seeming to be at loose ends after his flip, makes me wary. I still have a residual town read there from the Malakittens head's reactions yesterday, but the whole 'wants to sheep' thing puts me off at this point. Seanald's still scummy. I'm inclined to wait another night to see if ThAd can prove himself via performing a NK or being NK'd himself as a dangerous claimed PR. PV saying Slandaar should have been explaining his town read on CTD while blowing off all the people wanting him to explain how he and ThAd were so sure they were both town is scummy.

[penguin_alien]

thoughts on Bulb, please dear.

Eh, not a strong town read, but he seems to have decent intentions even if he's a bit paranoid.

Rena, do you agree that both you and ThAd are claiming to have unsuccessful night actions? Do you think you were both blocked? If you're town, wouldn't you be massively suspicious of ThAd and/or Bulbazak?

[penguin_alien]

I suppose Kublai Khan could have protected a VT claim, which would let Rena have been blocked. I don't love it, but I suppose it works.

PV, do you still trust ThAd? Do you think he trusts you?

[penguin_alien]

Forgot, UNVOTE: Rena

[penguin_alien]

I suppose Kublai Khan could have protected a VT claim, which would let Rena have been blocked. I don't love it, but I suppose it works.

PV, do you still trust ThAd? Do you think he trusts you?

Forgot, UNVOTE: Rena

??

??

?? I forgot that I meant to unvote Rena in that post when I came around to being willing to consider that KK used his JK on a claimed VT. I got distracted by trying to sort out how PV came to be regarded as so shady. Are you asking why? See below.

Rena, do you agree that both you and ThAd are claiming to have unsuccessful night actions? Do you think you were both blocked? If you're town, wouldn't you be massively suspicious of ThAd and/or Bulbazak?

1. Clearly, we are.
2. Asking me if I think we have both been blocked is presuming I believe ThAd's claim. I sort of believe it, I'm not 100% certain. Why would I be suspicious of Bulba? I actually presumed KK had JK'd ThAd because that's the only way (given the claims) that both myself and he could have unsuccessful night actions. What wouldn't surprise me is if mafia threw out a PR claim knowing I would target that as looking at my previous watcher strategy for the game, it's clear I was targetting claimed town PR's. Blocking me at the same time would ensure I did not get a result if I did something unpredictable. Why do you think I should be suspicious of ThAd?

I don't know if a game with a Ninja usually has both a Watcher and a Tracker; if not, it isn't inconceivable that Rena opted to gamble that one wouldn't be around and fake-claimed.

This sort of thing doesn't occur to me. I never think of role combinations, instead I opt for letting everyone else think of them for me. That's why my fakeclaims are usually duds. It's definitely inconceivable, I don't think enough for that.

Why did you unvote me?

2) The whole thing at the end of the the last day phase was that ThAd was sketchy and he was being given the night phase to prove his vig claim by dropping a body. As a town PR, KK shouldn't have been trying to screw over a claimed fellow town PR. If he believed ThAd, blocking him from proving himself could have set him up for a lynch today; if he didn't believe him, did he think scum would have such a high profile target do the kill for them? In the meantime, you're saying you think it's possible 'mafia threw out a PR claim knowing I would target that' but you don't know why you should then be suspicious of ThAd after no extra NK happening?

My line of thought: if you were blocked, ThAd shouldn't have been. Which means his purported kill failed for another reason. Possible reasons: 1) ...he isn't a vig 2) his target was protected by another PR 3) his target has some type of innate protection. 1) is on hold apparently. 2) is actually decently likely if KK thought he was protecting a town read. Reading over his last few posts, they do seem to indicate he hated both major wagons, and he was engaging with Bulbazak like a fellow townie. 3) we've already had a town 2-shot BP flip. There are some roles that redirect actions, but then we likely would have seen another body drop.

So basically, I now think it's more likely that Bulbazak could have been protected by the JK, which makes it possible and even likely that you were blocked. So no more vote.

Rena
bulb
ctd
Cephir
nacho
bacde
^
the last 4 scum be in there

What about Seanald? I know he's voting your preferred lynch, Nero Cain, but how is he not on this list where Bacde, for example, is? And I keep reading the back-and-forth between you and Bulbazak, and it's so focused on you disagreeing about the hypothetical composition of the neighborhoods and how you both have voted/been suspicious of others as a result. You say he's buddying CTD; is there anything independent of neighborhood issues that you find scummy in his play?

[penguin_alien]

yea, she's clearly not reading.

Everything in your ISO from today that's interaction with Bulbazak talks about the implications of Slandaar's flip, who was voting based on what neighborhood theories, etc. Maybe I'm missing some key point; that's why I'm asking. But I'm reading. All 600+ posts that you and Bulbazak have made combined.

[penguin_alien]

Human Destroyer, how are you going to feel about ThAd if an extra kill shows up?

[penguin_alien]

Prefer Rena lynch to Bulbazak right now, although I would go with Seanald over both. Actually,

VOTE: Seanald

If anyone has a town read on him and wants to dissuade me, have at it.

[penguin_alien]

Prefer Rena lynch to Bulbazak right now, although I would go with Seanald over both. Actually,

VOTE: Seanald

If anyone has a town read on him and wants to dissuade me, have at it.

This is a really strange post in context. The only wagon with more than 1 vote other than Bulba's is Rena, who you would prefer. But you put another singleton vote on Seanald.

W have 8 days, and a recurring theme here seems to be people saying they'd vote for person X, but only if someone else does. I'm voting where I think scum is. If push comes to shove, I'd vote Rena over Bulbazak, but I'd prefer to let another round of night actions shed more light on the vig-watcher claims. I doubt we have another protective role, which means scum either has to let at least one of their actions through or kill one of them. Although under the 'KK JK'd Bulbazak' theory, I guess scum wouldn't have been interfering with the vig shot.

Plus I thunk it's weird that there's all this interest in stringing up Rena now while when I was questioning the events, most of what I heard was reasons why Rena could be telling the truth. What makes Rena a better wagon than Seanald?

[penguin_alien]

Rena's appeal to some supposed town PR that could have blocked her reeks. Plus this:

This actually makes me think Nero is bussing Bulba. I think if Bulba flips scum, we definitely need to look at Nero. I find Nero's play change particularly concerning considering it changed when he was about to be lynched. However, why would scum want to put themselves out in the open like that? Unless he's scum with a powerless role or he was connected to Town on Day One.

I do agree with the rest of your points about him. I think even if Bulba flips town, we would learn a lot for tomorrow. Vote Bulba

So if Bulbazak is lynched and flips scum, Nero is under suspicion for you, but we learn a lot if Bulbazak flips town? Do you think a Bulbazak town flip absolves Nero? If not, you're basically saying Nero should be lynched after Bulbazak regardless, as I can't imagine you think we'd learn more about someone else than Nero from a Bulbazak town flip.

[penguin_alien]

What about Seanald? I know he's voting your preferred lynch, Nero Cain, but how is he not on this list where Bacde, for example, is? And I keep reading the back-and-forth between you and Bulbazak, and it's so focused on you disagreeing about the hypothetical composition of the neighborhoods and how you both have voted/been suspicious of others as a result.

Why did you feel the need to specifically use Bacde's name? Sean is lurking horribly so yeah, I have my doubts but idk...it doesn't seem as scummy as the other slots. Though I do vaguely remember him being lurky as scum.

I don't think that me and Bulb were arguing over his theory, I actually like his theory and think its plausible. What we were arguing over is him "dropping" it and "not willing to pick it back up" despite having Sean as a scum read. And he later some what contradicts himself when he claims that the reason he's "not willing to dive back into his theory" is 'cause he wants to lynch based on actual tells and not his theory but he was scum reading Sean for scumtelling.

I mentioned Bacde because he'd been a solid town read for me and your serious scum read on him surprised me. He was pretty involved in the thez lynch, more than I'd expect from counterpart-hunting red scum. And if he's blue scum, it strikes me as an odd tactic to push a buddy on the heels of losing a PR so early in such a big game.

So you think scum-Bulbazak decided to pop open the can of worms that is the neighborhood and then got cold feet...why? If he's scum with a teammate in the neighborhoods, he'd've known that before pushing Slandaar's lynch; if he's scum without a teammate in the neighborhoods, what's the motive for backing off? Sure, maybe he was putting up a front, but why keep it when you 're encouraging him to go for his scum reads?

[penguin_alien]

Bulbie really shouldn't be getting lynched

I know you want Rena lynched over Bulbazak, but where does your presumed town read on him come from? Since (almost) no one wants to join me on Seanald, and I don't know that things are clearcut enough on Rena, Bulbazak's the only other major wagon, and I don't see what your arguments are for town-Bulbazak.

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE

VOTE: Seanald

mollie is going to yell at you all for letting Rena get by another day.

Given the uncertainty about how KK might have influenced the night action results, do either of you really think lynching Seanald and giving it another night to figure out Rena's deal is worse than letting the incredibly scummy Seanald hang around and risk lynching a PR? I realize this flies in the face of my pushing Rena earlier this day phase, but without a tracker claim or a watcher CC'ing, she seems more likely to be a PR in unfortunate circumstances.

P-edit: with the above, it's pretty much addressed only to mollie...

[penguin_alien]

talk about scum buddies don wanna buss. Ceph would be my first choice in that, penguin would be next, I think he can do a decent job of sounding town and all but he's in a background position and postures his way around nicely, scummy in my eyes.

I have town reads on Fullis, desperado,

nacho keeps me on my toes but I town read him for the most part.

and fuck it I'll just claim this bitch up.

Im a doctor I can protect a person once a night.

...so we have a doctor + a JK in the game? Mm-hm. Not buying it. Especially with the lack of declared targets. Desperado, any indication in your neighborhood exchanges that this is possibly true?

[penguin_alien]

*sigh*

I wanted to push Seanald cause I swore he was scum and got fought a lot. Damn it to hell. There was something in Day 1 which reeked as a scum slip. Fml.

Explain the votes guys.

Also Peng is scum guys!

VOTE: peng

...so you

really, really

wanted to vote Seanald but couldn't be swayed from Rena yesterday. Mm-hm. But you think I'm scum for...pushing the person you thought should be lynched. Does not compute.

Here's your push on Seanald the day Slandaar was lynched:

Amethyst Kitty: Seanald->Kublai Khan->Desperado->Kublai Khan->Slandaar

You didn't vote for him at all yesterday. I see no way to credit you with a genuine desire to see Seanald swing, as you claim here:

Mollie

can you tell these guys to screw off? I'm town. I wanted Seanald dead and then the CW of Slandaar appeared.

I'm also thinking PereV as scum over CTD.

You think he's red scum Bulb? Because I'm pretty sure I was wrong about one of CTD/ffullisade and that they are red scum

I think he's the last blue scum hiding in the neighborhoods.

We get the first red flip of the game and you opt to dive back into the neighborhoods despite your overwhelming hesitation yesterday? Ignoring any red scum hunting to go for blue? I agree with those saying there's almost certainly a blue scum lurking in the neighborhoods, but whether we had a scum-scum team with Seanald-Desperado, a scum-PV matched with the (very likely) vig-ThAd, or scum-CTD doing a fake panic reaction with Slandaar Day Two, I'm not certain. There are points in favor of all of these. If we can't come up with anything better to lynch, that's all well and good, but given your extreme hesitation to vote anyone but Nero Cain yesterday, I'm skeptical. At this point we don't know for absolute certain that there is blue scum in the neighborhoods (hard to imagine there's not) but unless red scum had two neighborhooded members, it's certainly to their advantage to eliminate as many neighbors as possible at this point.

mollie and I are still discussing what yesterday's wagons tells us along with the NKs.

But this we feel sure of Bulba is town. We know that Rena was not a scum PR so there was NO FUCKING REASON for SCUM-BULBA to stay off her wagon yesterday. No biulba wagon today.

If Bulbazak is scum I can't imagine why he'd want to be off that wagon. Can't be the speculation about Rena being a scum Watcher that would have been reinforced if he'd flipped scum but avoided voting her. /snark

Not sure I want to lynch there, but Seanald flipping scum doctor makes me question Bulbazak's survival. I know yesterday we concluded that it was possible KK JK'd Bulbazak to protect a town read from a vig shot, and if ThAd isn't playing us it sounds like his claimed failures came from two different causes, money going on protection then blocking. I didn't like the Rena-ThAd double missing actions yesterday because I really hated the idea that KK would protect a major game target when there was a claimed vig who we needed to see if he could be proven. It makes a whole lot more sense that ThAd didn't hit because the red scum doc protected Bulbazak. Which makes Bulbazak...?

Although Cephrir points out good reasons why Bulbazak and Seanald didn't post about each other like scum buddies would be expected to. But Seanald makes a point of responding to Bulbazak's question in #3167 Then his voting for him is always for weak reasons, like misrepping his vote on AA9 in #4542 Looking at Bulbazak on Seanald, sure, he takes potshots at him. But it wouldn't be hard to pick on a lurking scum buddy for ultimate town cred. And this:

Serious question: How isn't Bulba hammered already?

scum buddies don wanna bus dude.

came at a time when Seanald had one vote on him and Bulbazak was at L-1. It was hard to imagine that Bulbazak wouldn't be the lynch, so doesn't Seanald come out smelling like roses if Bulbazak is his buddy and he's on the wagon and Bulbazak flips scum? Given the vote count at that point:

One-Hundred-Thirty-Fourth Votecount: (Sixteenth Votecount of Day Four, AKA, the "Bacde, NOOOOOOOO, sadface." votecount.)

Bulbazak - 7 (Nero Cain, ThAdmiral, Seanald, CrashTextDummie, Desperado, Human Destroyer, Rena)
Rena - 3 (Cephrir, Nachomamma8, ffullisade)
ThAdmiral - 1 (Baezu)
Nero Cain - 1 (Bulbazak)
Cephrir - 1 (PeregrineV)
Seanald - 1 (penguin_alien)

Not Voting - 1 (Amethyst Kitty)

With 15 alive, it's 8 to lynch.

it makes me look at CTD and HD if Bulbazak was scumbuddies with Seanald, since Seanald's statement could be construed as smug scum who's bussing.

tl;dr: Amethyst Kitty is majorly inflating their investment in the Seanald lynch; Bulbazak's really excited to dive into the neighborhoods now that a red scum has flipped from them, Bulbazak isn't clear of being scum of any stripe, particularly red scum after Seanald's flipo, and while there's very likely blue scum in the neighborhoods and unlikely to be more red scum, I don't want to let anyone off the hook for now. I'd like to hear more from the living neighbors about their updated reads given Seanald's flip, since PV and ThAd in particular have their ongoing conversations to consider (that can be mutually confirmed, unlike CTD and Desperado).

From the neighborhoods, I'm not interested in lynching Desperado or ThAd. ThAd retains the potential to prove himself, and given that not giving Rena time to prove herself through results or death would have been a mistake, I'm leaning that way on ThAd. If Desperado is the blue scum, I'd think Seanald would have shared suspicions with his red scum buddies and they'd be pushing him. PV makes me nervous for the way he and ThAd/their predecessors were so certain of each others' towniness. CTD gets town points for his freak out Day Two, but if ThAd demonstrates that the 'killer in each neighborhood' theory is possible, CTD isn't off the hook.

Actually, Desperado, did anything you and Seanald discussed give you any idea of who red scum might be? You said he put on a good show in the QT night before last.

[penguin_alien]

AK brought up something that I forgot about.

PV you wanna vote Rena?

If Rena flips town like she claimed, I'm putting my vote here tomorrow.

You know what? I've reread the last few pages and I do think rena is leaning more town for me.

I think scum is hiding in the current wagons.

Really thinking Seanald and Nacho are scum.

Baezu, if you are so sure that Nacho is scum, why aren't you voting him? And if you are no longer sure that Nacho is scum, what changed you mind? Also, explain the Amethyst Kitty vote.

This isn't adequately addressed anywhere in:

@ thad

come here honey you are starting to worry me a bit.

also why did baezu sub in if all he is going to do is immediately go on v/la and try to lurk out the rest of the game?

no

HELL NO

y'all don't make me use the shouty font

VOTE: baezu

How am I lurking? I've posted at least daily since getting back from V/la. Also, this is Bacde's slot. If you didn't have him as scum it means I'm not scum.

sorry AM. just trying to apply pressure. You're town - you're not getting lynched

Peregrine jumping on the wagon without explanation though is superscummy.

VOTE: Peregrine

Why were you trying to apply pressure to someone you think is town? That's your explanation for the AK vote?

What doesn't make sense here is that Bacde was pretty enthusiastically hunting down the blue scum. If Baezu is scum, unless Bacde is an awesome early game busser, she has to be red. So with Seanald-Nacho, either Baezu named two scum partners as her scum choices or she picked scum-Seanald + not-red-Nacho as her scum choices and then didn't try to get a supposed second scum pick lynched at all? Neither of these plays makes sense, but then neither does pressure-voting someone you think is town.

...and then again, when she made the post fingering Seanald and Nacho, that vote on Seanald was only the second vote on the wagon, and she later went to the dying Rena train. I want Baezu's take on Nachomamma8 and a more thorough explanation of her thought processes in voting AK.

Paraphrasing:

Says I'm a town read and he wants to work with me. Thinks Cephrir is scum and that he "hastily" came to Bulb's rescue, which reads like partners to him. He also says Slandaar's townflip didn't change his town read on CTD so he won't be voting him.

Then he says HD has been invisible all game.

He can't read AK. Had a "strong" townread on them D1 and D2, but couldn't understand what they were doing and the hydra is making it difficult to get a base on them. But he still leans town even though they "AtEd the shit" out of him

Then he posted the Slandaar wagon and noted that Ceph and AK were both in the middle, and that he has Nero as town

Then he said that penguin alien is a "cheeky fucker" who didn't join a major wagon D3 and was just posturing. Penguin is "super scummy"

Erm, 'cheeky fucker' makes me sound like I'm way more fun than I am. And I'm giving Seanald a British accent in my head. /levity

Seriously, had he mentioned HD at any point before this? Because him calling out the HD/Om the Destroyer when that slot has twice the posts his slot did is just bizarre. And what's with the contradiction between being unable to read AK and having a strong townread on them at one point and leaning town on them. Then he implicates Cephrir a couple of times, once for something AK also did (voting in the middle of the Slandaar wagon). Which reads like he knows AK is scummy and wants to link Cephrir with scummy actions.

I had a town read on AK for the whole 'wanting to quit the game rather than ruin a friendship' thing. Seanald's flip and resultant info coming to light is really making me second-guess that.

Yeah there pretty much has to be one scum out of ctd/pere.

and his name is pere!

also why did baezu sub in if all he is going to do is immediately go on v/la and try to lurk out the rest of the game?

no

bacde wasn't scum, trust me

also if bluescum dies that isn't a roleblocker, ThAd dies immediately.

Which of these reads takes priority for you, Nacho? Or are they not mutually exclusive?

[penguin_alien]

OK, Amethyst Kitty, let's chat. The Seanald wagon basically sprung up at a time when you weren't posting. I still disagree that you were vehemently pushing for his lynch in recent days, but I'll work from giving you the benefit of the doubt that you would have preferred that wagon to Rena.

Having said that, what's your take on the Seanald wagon?

That is, in fact, the hammer. Hold, please. Got some bookkeeping to do.

One-Hundred-Forty-Second Votecount

:

(Twenty-Fourth and Final Votecount of Day Four,

AKA, the "But now he is!" votecount.

)

Seanald - 8 (penguin_alien, Nachomamma8, Cephrir, ffullisade, Bulbazak, Desperado, Rena, CrashTextDummie)

Bulbazak - 4 (Nero Cain, ThAdmiral, Seanald, Human Destroyer)

Rena - 2 (Amethyst Kitty, Baezu)
Amethyst Kitty - 1 (PeregrineV)

Which of these votes do you find scummy, specifically on the wagon? Since of those off it who are living and assuming you're town, we have:

ThAd, HD, Baezu, and PV. That's a small group to hold minimum two red scum, possibly three depending on team size. Plus I tend to think ThAd is a vig, albeit one whose shots haven't gone off. Which reduces the pool to HD, Baezu, and PV. It makes me think there's a red scum on the wagon.

WRT ThAd being a vig, yes, it could be a scum gambit, but in that case I'd expect him to kiss up to his neighbor instead of being paranoid of PV being scum. Ignoring him in the night phase doesn't seem like scum playing a role. He'd want to work on convincing PV he was a vig rather than alienating him.

[penguin_alien]

The 'not letting anyone off the hook' was meant to refer to the possibilities of scum left in the neighborhoods, although I don't see a situation where I'd support a Desperado lynch. Not a general, 'anyone could be scum!!!' statement. I'm town reading ffullisade, Cephrir, probably Nacho, ThAd, and Desperado.

[penguin_alien]

"ThAd is town because there is a scum roleblocker" isn't an argument.

Especially when someone else has claimed roleblocked on the same night as them.

I'm not up for the quote wall, but didn't ThAd say his lack of kill didn't count against his shots this time? Implying the failed kills had different causes? And that he had limited shots in the first place?

<<< That should fix the tags. >>>

[penguin_alien]

Mod, could you please fix the quote tags in my previous post when you get a chance? Sorry, I don't know what happened...

<<< What happened was a space after the quotation mark, which breaks bbcode, just as, say, [/b ] won't work. >>>

AK-Mala, in the first Seanald wagon you link from Day Three, PV is the first person on there. Say he's scum, and IIRC ThAd or his predecessor had told PV ThAd was a town PR. To what extent is it likely that he'd want to open the can of worms in lynching within the neighborhoods? If he thought ThAd could prove himself via shots, he'd have to consider himself the more vulnerable to being lynched in his pairing.

You say Bulbazak is town. What's the most important element of that read as of today, given that Seanald flipped scum doctor and ThAd's shot at Bulbazak was likely absorbed by a protection, if ThAd is being truthful. Actually, you were in a lot of dialogue with KK. How likely do you think it is that KK JK'd Bulbazak that night?

[penguin_alien]

I can't believe I'm agreeing with Bulbazak, but I don't think hammering PV is a great idea. Aside from ThAd being paranoid about his neighbor, I don't see what's driving everyone else. And that Baezu is spearheading it, with his inciting the town after his weird jump on AK...really not loving the wagon.

There's almost certainly scum left somewhere in the neighborhoods. Red scum has to be counting on finding blue scum in there. Fanciful speculation aside, I doubt there's any more red scum in the neighborhoods. Which means that one more scum flip from the neighborhoods would leave any survivors as really hard to lynch. For us town players, that means we want to make a surgical strike. Red scum, they just want to cut that pool down. Blue scum, it depends whether Nacho's right about four scum per team. With three, if PV is the missing blue scum, he should be fighting tooth and nail to stick around. I'm just not feeling that last scum standing vibe. And I've seen PV as last scum standing for his team. Maybe he's part of a four-man blue team, but then why isn't he throwing other neighbors in the chopper ahead of himself? Since if he knew he'd flip blue, it would leave three people as those very hard to lynch surviving neighbors for his then last blue standing partner to deal with? Instead he's pursuing a scum read in Amethyst Kitty.

I have town reads on the PV wagon. Nachomamma8 and ffullisade in particular. What's your argument for PV being the scum that this lynch will remove from the neighborhood pool?

Human Destroyer wanting to jump on ThAd when Rena's flip implies he's not a good lynch for today makes me really uneasy.

VOTE: Human Destroyer

[penguin_alien]

The case is, basically, that it makes sense for there to be more scum among the neighborhoods.

OK, but see, Desperado thought his neighbor was scum for specific things, the case in #4038 for one, the change between his scumhunting in the QT N3 and his D4 activity for another. ThAd, as of #4503, PV was a town read for you. He moved into possible scum after your first claimed failed vig shot, but you said you stopped talking about targets with him during that night. At the time, you said your failure to hit meant you were likely blocked and you figured scum blocked you to keep you from hitting CTD. Since if you're telling us the truth in hindsight it's more likely that your target was protected, I can see where you no longer have CTD above PV as scum per se. But nothing you're saying explains why you want PV lynched over CTD or Desperado.

P-edit: ...or, what Bulbazak said.

[penguin_alien]

The case is, basically, that it makes sense for there to be more scum among the neighborhoods.

This makes the most sense to me as well.

Pere and CTD could both be scum. Unlikely, but possible.

Unlikely, yes. So why PV over CTD? You started the wagon on him for his jumping on the AK train...which you had done in the post right after his with a even worse jump. Which, by the way, you haven't explained why you wanted to pressure someone you claim is/was a town read.

[penguin_alien]

If you guys actually want that case you aren't asking the right people.

If you're just trying to figure out if Baezu is scum, well, she probably is.

You're welcome.

That's why I was asking my town reads Nacho and ffullisade. Although, I'll expand that to asking why you're ready to hammer.

[penguin_alien]

Human Destroyer wanting to jump on ThAd when Rena's flip implies he's not a good lynch for today makes me really uneasy.

1. Are we ignoring the fact that I've wanted the ThAd slot dead since Day 1 now?

2. Weird...I find the Rena flip implicates him as scum, not town. Why do you think otherwise?

1. OK...doesn't mean it's town-tunneling.

2. Rena's flip tells us that scum does have the ability to roleblock, as I seriously doubt KK JK'd Rena, nor has anyone suggested such a thing. Town (almost) never lies about being blocked. (yes, I've seen it happen to my extreme annoyance, not relevant here) That night, scum shot KK and AA9. AA9 wasn't active enough to be a serious threat; KK was in a death spiral grip with AK. Maybe scum were PR hunting. But there was a claimed PR right there. Why block and not kill? Hoping town would take her out.

Time out. You're right, this doesn't make sense. Three scenarios: A: ThAd is town, B: ThAd is scum on a team with a roleblocker, C: ThAd is scum on a team without a roleblocker.

A: Scum leaves ThAd free to shoot his target, as neither team apparently cares that he declared he was aiming for CTD. Never mind that this leaves him having confirmed himself. Still, not sure why scum wouldn't kill him before he could go for any of their own people if they were letting him shoot with the hopes that he'd eliminate CTD for them. B: ThAd knows that his team will block Rena. He hopes to 1v1 her on the blocking issue. C: ThAd expects one of the claimed PRs to be dead by Day Four and be able to claim that he was the target of a block if he survives.

What does make me uneasy is that I was questioning all this Day Four, albeit thinking that Rena was opportunistic scum. Yet no one jumped on it, even though last night's kill demonstrates that at least one scum team wanted her dead in the end. It seems like scum could be trying to get us to lynch ThAd for them, like they seem to have tried with Rena.

"ThAd is town because there is a scum roleblocker" isn't an argument.

Especially when someone else has claimed roleblocked on the same night as them.

I'm not up for the quote wall, but didn't ThAd say his lack of kill didn't count against his shots this time? Implying the failed kills had different causes? And that he had limited shots in the first place?

<<< That should fix the tags. >>>

you really think mod would telegraph different causes for a kill not going through?

I sure as hell don't. OTOH, with no other claimed X-Shot PRs, the fact that there might be a difference ia fairly easy to fake.

I had an X-Shot role cop PR as scum once. I made sure to clarify whether it counted against my shots if I was blocked. It didn't. I assume that if I'd ever been blocked, I would have been informed that I didn't use up a shot. I've also seen set-ups where only one town PR was X-shot and others were perpetual. So I do think the mod would have to inform the player in this situation how many shots he has left, but you're also right that it's easy to fake.

assuming 3-3

I think nacho is red scum that went for the easy seanald bus, thad is his buddy

nacho was so quick to back the fuck off the moment thad claimed, started claiming that thad was a more likely scum roleblock target than rena but when rena flips town he doesn't seem to consider thad? unless I really missed something there

thad is on like super-survival mode, that x-shot distinction thing is sketchy as fuck, om was fairly sure dan was scum D1, he lacks towniness to a scary degree...omg just kill it already

Bulb is last blue scum, though if thad is somehow town, I guess he could be a BP SK? He's scum though, I'm pretty certain. he has evaded the lynch like twice somehow, even after being called on blatant lying. he also feels so damn mechanical this game, and he was so obv-town in other games I've played with him, I just don't see him being town in any reality.

PV I am not confident in my ability to read, I always seem to get it wrong, and I'm lazy, so I'm not even trying there

baezu slot troubles me but maybe it's 4-4 or maybe an SK? if it's 4-4 I'm fucking stumped as to who the last scum is, I'd probably entertain PV at that point tho

I think I'm comfortable with at the very least ctd, ffullisade, and desp, ceph I'm a little less sure of now

ps phoneposting sucks

UNVOTE: Human Destroyer

HD is approaching this way better than the people piling on PV for the reason of, 'must be scum somewhere in the neighborhoods.' I don't know that I agree that we should lynch ThAd today, but I get the case now, which is more than I can say for the PV lynch. CTD makes some good points, but it seems like most of the other people still on the wagon don't have much more than a plan to fish with dynamite. Which is what scum would want right now. So I'm not so excited about it.

Nacho did say that if we don't get evidence of a scum roleblocker, ThAd should be lynched. Yet Rena's claim of being blocked would seem to indicate one exists. Not sure how to reconcile that.

VOTE: Baezu

For starting the PV wagon with a hypocritical reason and not seeming to care about figuring out where scum is if it's still among the neighborhoods.

[penguin_alien]

Time out. You're right, this doesn't make sense. Three scenarios: A: ThAd is town, B: ThAd is scum on a team with a roleblocker, C: ThAd is scum on a team without a roleblocker.

A: Scum leaves ThAd free to shoot his target, as neither team apparently cares that he declared he was aiming for CTD. Never mind that this leaves him having confirmed himself. Still, not sure why scum wouldn't kill him before he could go for any of their own people if they were letting him shoot with the hopes that he'd eliminate CTD for them. B: ThAd knows that his team will block Rena. He hopes to 1v1 her on the blocking issue. C: ThAd expects one of the claimed PRs to be dead by Day Four and be able to claim that he was the target of a block if he survives.

What does make me uneasy is that I was questioning all this Day Four, albeit thinking that Rena was opportunistic scum. Yet no one jumped on it, even though last night's kill demonstrates that at least one scum team wanted her dead in the end. It seems like scum could be trying to get us to lynch ThAd for them, like they seem to have tried with Rena.

This, coupled with the fact that ThaD just voted for PV, simply because I asked him to:

This convinced you? Of what? It didn't convince me of anything except that the situation is murky. And nicely dodges the question of why you voted for PV in the first place.

I don't care how towny Bacde looked for being suspicious of blue scum. Baezu is worth voting.

[penguin_alien]

I've been reading PV as null-scum most of the game and CTD as town the entire game, is why. Though the latter read is admittedly falling off for me.

ffull, I know about the Bacde thing, I was with you all the way. I've been calling him obvtown the whole game. But there's always room to be wrong about town reads in this game and Baezu scumming the everloving hell out of that slot needs to be taken into consideration. Bacde is the only reason I'm not voting her right now and/or sobbing about the town not being able to see blatant scum right in front of their faces, 'cause honestly I'm not sure she could possibly sound scummier.

There are not two more scum neighbors and anyone suggesting this should be shot.

Baezu's completed MS games:

vanilla town - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=29631
vanilla town - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=29901
scum - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=28555

I'm curious what you think about the differences in those games and how you think her play in this game look by comparsion.

Really, I think Baezu's posting has been closest to the scum game. A disregard for logic, trying to steamroll in opinions, not at all conservative in her votes. They're all newbie games, so it's definitely a different beast, but those games don't make me think this is town-Baezu. I'm probably being overly flippant in my description, but there's a real 'anyone but me' vibe in the scum game and here.

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Baezu

Still not seeing town there, but there will likely be time to sort it out later.

Lynching within the neighborhoods is at least a group where we're super-likely to find a blue scum, possibly the last one. The earlier PV wagon didn't seem focused on actually finding scum so much as trying to push the first easy neighborhood lynch. I don't see Desperado pushing his neighbor like he did as scum, as it leaves him more exposed. To a lesser extent I see this with CTD having outed the neighborhoods in the first place, especially if he was blue; his first move after having a teammate NK'd wouldn't have been to set something in motion to lower his own game life expectancy.

That leaves PV-ThAd. I'm not seeing PV as blue scum here for reasons I outlined in an earlier post. ThAd would thus be my hands down choice aside from his vig claim. Bulbazak, why does your PoE get you CTD instead of ThAd?

[penguin_alien]

Desperado, what's your take on lynching in or out of the neighborhoods?

[penguin_alien]

I'd vote either you (ThAd) or CTD. Some things about you look scummier (cutting ties with your neighbor without anything more specific to go on, claiming a role that we have yet to see proof of) whereas I think CTD's reactions to neighborhood things have been pretty genuine, but then if you are a town PR, I hate to play into scum's hands by lynching you. I have no interest in lynching PV unless PoE, by which I mean other neighborhood members flipping, leaves him as the only possibility. I just don't see scum-PV in his reactions today.

Then too, I'm not following what Nachomamma8 is saying here:

Why are scum given the benefit of a townie to talk to when figuring out their night actions? I'm not sure how strong a point that is and how that would really effect the balance in the long run. And if we are shorter on PRs than is usual, wouldn't it be better balance-wise to pair a townie with the vig?

neighbors sorting each other out is an interaction that is older than time itself.
townie chilling with a vig is new and strange and throws things off balance a bit, especially considering i don't see CTD close to anything like scum. but now we have that nice sexy pretty much confirmation on ThAd, so I'm guessing you're right on this front too.

and I want Desperado's current take, since I'm sure enough he's town that I can't imagine lynching him.

[penguin_alien]

PV, why do you think scum would NK someone who keeps getting wagoned up?

[penguin_alien]

Happy scum day, P_A!

Thanks, and

thanks to you too, mastin2!

OK, so today things have gone from plurality wanting to lynch a specific neighbor to a plurality wanting to lynch a specific non-neighbor. As much as that speed wagon worked yesterday, it was a near thing.

So, here's what I see as some pretty likely premises to work from:

A) There is likely a blue scum in the neighborhoods.
B) It remains possible that a third blue scum is the final blue scum, and eliminating that faction takes away a NK, giving us breathing room.
C) If we lynch the right neighbor, we likely have three nearly-confirmed townies.
D) From C), it follows that if we lynch the wrong neighbor we're doing scum's work for them.
E) There are multiple scum outside the neighborhoods; lynching somewhere there remains viable.
F) The majority of those voting are voting outside the neighborhoods, as is the most likely to be town neighbor Desperado.

Having said that, can people weigh in on whether they think we're better off lynching from the neighborhoods or not and whether I'm missing any glaring points in my premises?

My take, and my thinking has shifted over the course of the day, is that the reward of lynching in the neighborhoods outweighs the risks. I can still see either ThAd or CTD as the neighborhood scum.

[penguin_alien]

I'm willing to follow Desperado and Nachomamma8 on this, and I guess I'd rather not lynch claimed PR ThAd given the Rena result.

Intent to hammer if Nacho is counting right. Claim, please.

[penguin_alien]

EBWOP: Nacho's count is right. So, claim.

[penguin_alien]

If CTD flips town than ThAd is going next.

Vote: CrashTextDummie

Some reason why this couldnt have waited a few more hours?

Eh, given the town PRs that have flipped, it's hard to see CTD claiming something more useful and/or provable than vig. And I'd've hammered a VT claim. Add in CTD wandering off for most of the day phase, and I've seen worse hammers.

If you're town, CTD, some final reads would be nice.

[penguin_alien]

I really don't see PV as scum for everything that went down yesterday. HD was reading townish yesterday, but his stance on PV could have been blue scum not wanting to touch the neighborhoods. Looking at his vote history since the neighborhoods came out, the only neighbor he's voted is ThAd, who claimed a town PR.

Bulbazak was townish yesterday, but with ThAd confirmed, I keep going back to the failed shot on him with a red scum doc. If HD is the last blue (and so the only likely source of a roleblock) he could have blocked ThAd's shot on him, hence the two different failure types ThAd claimed.

Going at it another way, Desperado and PV are town. Examining everyone else:

Cephrir seemed happy to bus Seanald at multiple points. It wouldn't be surprising if he was at least soft-bussing another scum budd, and AK looks good for that, considering Cephrir's voting history. So here's the list:

Players

4. Nachomamma8

5. PeregrineV

9. Bulbazak

3. Desperado
14. penguin_alien

21. Amethyst Kitty

22. ffullisade

3. Human Destroyer

If I'm wrong about something, I'd expect to have misread Nacho over the various mollie hydras, but I also know I'm bad at reading mollie-scum. Which makes that kind of a wash.

Mollie/ffullisade, you thought I was steering you? The only thing I remember interacting with you at length about is the Rena Watcher claim being like the fake cop claim in NY 161; what else did we chat about?

Bulbazak, if you really thought I was blue scum, why wouldn't you want me dead today? And as far as thezmon, go back and read what I was actually saying there. At the time, the only logical role to have been gifted via back up was 2-shot BP. I figured thez was keeping it under wraps and so didn't like Cephrir and others pushing it. (And now we know Cephrir was scum with a vested interest in taking out potential PRs) I didn't think thez would fake claim universal back-up in a game right after being on a scum team that faked said claim in a game where myself, Slandaar, PV, and probably others I'm forgetting were present. I realized I might be wrong about that when he got to L-1 and was still keeping mum, hence mentioning a possible inspiration for it being a fakeable claim.

I'd like to hear about the PV case and to hear from universal town read Desperado, as the wagon as it stands right now with Bulbazak voting there despite claiming he sees me as blue scum makes me uneasy.

[penguin_alien]

Mod, can scum perform a kill and use a power in the same night?

<<< Answered in post 5858. >>>

Mala, who I assume is AK right now, 1) I didn't say you might be soft-bussing, I said Cephrir might be; 2) no, I'm not voting HD yet. I have doubts about the wagon, and the start of day vibe of 'let's lynch HD, and then we can quicklynch PV tomorrow!!1!' was awful.

Bottom line, we're best off lynching blue scum today. I think. That makes it MyLo the next day, as opposed to likely 3:1:1 or 2:2:1 town:red:blue. The last one especially is bad as we can lynch scum there and still lose overnight.

What's your take on Bulbazak? Because he's the main vote making me hesitate on HD. Although having been in what red scum's position likely is (Street Racers), I can say that red scum should be going for their actual blue scum reads, even if blue scum hasn't crosskilled.

P-edit: PV said ThAd was the one who shot Cephrir.

[penguin_alien]

Take a look at Cephrir's player vote histories over the last four days. He's on and off Seanald, so he's not averse to bussing his partners there.

Aside from KK, which NKs do you think are framing you? We've had:

Syryana, Red Ryu
EddieFenix, Thor665
Kublai Khan, AA9
Nero Cain, Rena
Cephrir, Baezu, ThAd

[penguin_alien]

I really don't see PV as scum for everything that went down yesterday. HD was reading townish yesterday, but his stance on PV could have been blue scum not wanting to touch the neighborhoods. Looking at his vote history since the neighborhoods came out, the only neighbor he's voted is ThAd, who claimed a town PR.

Y'know, you never answered why you found my stance on PV townish in the first place. It'd be cool if you did.
Also I outright declared a townread on CTD (a neighbor) and a scumread on ThAd (a neighbor) so...what was I avoiding?

Bulbazak was townish yesterday, but with ThAd confirmed, I keep going back to the failed shot on him with a red scum doc. If HD is the last blue (and so the only likely source of a roleblock) he could have blocked ThAd's shot on him, hence the two different failure types ThAd claimed.

And then proceed to ask a question involving said roleblock that confirms the mislynch I want to push as town?
Sounds like a great idea.

Sorry, limited time ATM, but I think I did address the first part of this yesterday: PV was very much not a scum read for me. The prevailing theory was that the likely neighborhood scum was blue and could be the last scum from his team left. While it was beneficial for scum to lynch anyone they could in the neighborhoods, since if another scum flipped anyone left would be very likely town and almost impossible to lynch, town should have been more discriminating, as mislynching from the neighborhoods means eliminating a potential conf-town to have down the line. It would have been easy for you to pile on a likely PV mislynch, but you didn't.

But last night's kills indicated that there's still blue scum in play, and so the above argument weakens a bit when you consider that if you're blue scum and so had partner-CTD left alive, you might have still been reluctant to lynch in the neighborhoods at all.

I'm not tracking the second half of that quote. Which mislynch would you have wanted to push as town?

I need to read the last couple pages; I'll catch up tonight.

[penguin_alien]

Which mislynch would you have wanted to push as town?

I meant "confirms the person I am supposedly trying to mislynch to be town".

(i.e. ThAd)

My theory is that you're blue scum and the source of ThAd not being able to kill Night Four. You came into Day Five, and your first content post was this:

VOTE: ThAd

oh please

you're telling me he's gone 4 nights without a single successful kill?

I call bullshit

Which is you using the fact that he claimed his kill didn't go through as a reason to think he was lying scum and push for his lynch.

Can you quote exactly what question you're talking about here, because I'm not following:

And then proceed to ask a question involving said roleblock that confirms the mislynch I want to push as town?

PV, did ThAd leave any insights in the QT about why he thought Cephrir was worth vigging?

"Irrespective of Thezmon's claim"? That's essentially "I must acknowledge the claim and how bad it is, but let's ignore it." True that you said you didn't buy the claim, but you essentially completely ignored it and then attacked Thez's attacker. Your reasonings, which were given in another post were essentially you trying to salvage the situation. And I can kinda feel you chiding Thez at the end of that quote. It's like you're not even trying to figure out if Thez is scum, rather you are trying to coach him. I just didn't like your approach to the entire wagon.

First, I must note that if I was on a scum team with Thez, no way would I be trying to coach him. And yes, I kept some of my thoughts to myself at first, which can be construed as anti-town. But I'd already managed to spark a wagon on 2-shot BP-Oversoul the day before; if there was a chance the power had legit been handed off, I wasn't going to add fuel to the fire to get the role killed off again. As far as questioning Bacde goes, we'd had two kills the night before, where one was the non-standard color Blue Mafia; there was a pretty darn good chance we were in multiball. In that situation, even if Bacde was scumhunting that didn't absolve him of being scum himself, nor did it mean he wasn't bussing irrespective of multiball issues.

Did Baby Spice even have a case on Nacho? Because from the last couple posts of hers I read, it seemed like she was just rage-tunneling.

AK, can you chat with me about this:

Take a look at Cephrir's player vote histories over the last four days. He's on and off Seanald, so he's not averse to bussing his partners there.

Aside from KK, which NKs do you think are framing you? We've had:

Syryana, Red Ryu
EddieFenix, Thor665
Kublai Khan, AA9
Nero Cain, Rena
Cephrir, Baezu, ThAd

Because the paranoia involved does make me lean townish on you again, but it got dropped by the wayside.

[penguin_alien]

There was some talk at the time about mollie/ffullisade wanting to discuss some things before ending the day. I suppose I could have put him at L-1, but given his quick-self-hammer I can't really regret not giving him the opportunity to cut off the day's discussion sooner.

[penguin_alien]

I'm not seeing where HD didn't work really hard to discredit ThAd and push his lynch in a way that lines up with scum playing on town paranoia. And him saying his reaction was towny, well. The posts I've seen just don't support that. He also avoided the neighborhoods aside from ThAd, like he didn't want to start whittling away at them outside of the claimed PR who wasn't on his team. With two decent town reads also reading him as scum, I'm willing to bet on HD being scum, very likely blue.

VOTE: Human Destroyer

[penguin_alien]

At the risk of being obvious, either scum doubled up on shooting Desperado or blue scum roleblocked the red scum shooter. ffullisade, did you block AK?

[penguin_alien]

Wait, so we went into last night with four town, two red, and one blue. If blue scum targeted Desperado (and I think we can all take it as a given that Desperado was town-town-town even before his flip), red obviously not killing red would have resulted in two red scum being left in a pool of five or six depending on if they also targeted Desperado. Based on the only recent NK of scum coming from ThAd's vig shot, I think we can assume blue scum is doing a lousy job of hunting the other team. Which makes me skeptical that he managed to block the red scum who was doing the kill if there are two left, as I'd assume red scum would have had the less scummy person kill, and if blue scum is hunting red, I doubt he can shoot his way out of a paper bag. And if it's a straight-up roleblocker, why wouldn't he also kill said scum suspect?

Here's a really dumb question: Night Three, ThAd claimed intent to shoot CTD. We now know CTD was blue scum and that there were two blue scum left (if we had five member teams and I'm now talking to two blue scum and three red scum, I'll be...distressed, shall we say) We also know that Rena was blocked and ThAd's shot was not blocked but rather absorbed by protection. If blue thought the vig was going to leave their team at a singleton against a full strength red scum team, why wouldn't they have blocked the vig shot? Four possibilities: 1) they decided to take their chances, 2) they had inside information via PV that ThAd wasn't going to shoot CTD (except Thad says here that he claimed to be shooting CTD all night), 3) blue doesn't have a roleblocker, 4) blue has a roleblocker who they thought had a better option for a night action.

Which means blue's just idiotic enough to not shoot for red scum. Or blue has some other PR and red has the roleblock? Does ninja/? balance tracker/doctor/roleblocker? Or could we have a town roleblocker? I could see a town roleblocker blocking Rena under the assumption that scum-Rena could do the NK, have an excuse for visiting the target, and then pin the kill on anyone she wanted, but why block a vig trying to prove himself?

ffullisade, I am generally awful at crumb-spotting, but in looking over AK's early ISO, there was a lot of distaste for the massclaim suggestion, and it was quite vociferous for something that wasn't realistically going to happen Day One. Is this what you were thinking of?

I don't like the idea of mass claiming. I rather not at least not on Day1.

Why not?

HD, Mollie is town, so you'll have to put up with Majiffy.

I, personally, feel that a massclaim D1 is in more favor of the scum. We don't know what PRs the town has.. Maybe the PRs are better left hidden rather then straight up claiming.

I also feel that random NKs give off more information to use as a tool against scum then NKs that are brought on thanks to a massclaim.

Could have been setting up for a softclaim. I'm a bit uncertain about the part where AK seemed to think they were being set up by a lot of the NKs, and I'd like to actually engage with AK about that.

[penguin_alien]

Sounds right to me. I think scum hunting in general is going to be our best play, as if we run up blue scum they'll claim as such and we can sort things out then.

There's some weird stuff going on in this game, as I outlined a bit before, and right now I'm mostly sure you (PV) are town. I'm also pretty sure Bulbazak is scum due to the failed vig shot. It just doesn't add up that KK would protect him when he was a clear vig target as the alternate wagon to a town lynch. Sure, people have argued that he'd claimed VT and so KK would have figured he wasn't blocking a PR, but we had a claimed vig. Preserving a claimed VT who'd been scummy enough to be wagoned at the expense of denying a vig town cred doesn't add up. Even if he was working from the assumption Bulbazak was town, he certainly couldn't then have thought either scum team would shoot a potential mislynch at that time.

That leaves two scum, one town from {Nacho, ffullisade, AK} Desperado seemed to think AK and Nacho were possibly scum yesterday. I wish he'd elaborated on why he switched to HD specifically over them. Since Bulbazak is incredibly likely to be red scum, that means the two other scum are on opposite teams. Which is where it gets interesting.

Look at the NK'd players list, leaving out Cephrir since you told us ThAd shot him:

1: Syryana, Red Ryu--we can safely guess red scum killed Red Ryu and so blue scum killed Syryana.
2: EddieFenix, Thor665--no idea here
3: Kublai Khan, ArcAngel9--no idea here
4: Nero Cain, Rena--Rena is the claimed town PR here
5: Baezu, ThAd--ThAd is the claimed town PR here
6: Desperado--unknown whether scum double-targeted or one side was blocked

Nights 4 and 5 in particular--working from the assumption that only Seanald and CTD were scum in the neighborhoods, both sides were staring at minimum four unlynchable players from Night Four on: three of {you, Desperado, ThAd, CTD}, Rena. Blue scum may not have wanted to dive into the neighborhoods at all to maximize the cover for CTD, but both sides should have wanted Rena dead. And red scum should have wanted to start killing off neighbors who were going to be conf-town. So why is only one unlynchable NK'd? Same thing Night Five--I'd have expected both scum teams to shoot in the neighborhoods, never mind the risk of overlapping. But instead shots have been fired at Nero Cain and Baezu? Last night changes things up, but it's been pretty serendipitous for scum before that.

Maybe I'm indulging in extreme paranoia here, but it looks to me like the remaining red and blue scum are able to divvy up the town, so to speak. Like they're predicting where the other team will kill in a way that's pretty hard to do. If we're talking Street Racers, I remember that we worked really hard to avoid kills that might overlap there, and we had almost no obv/conf-town targets during the time I was involved. We avoided Darthe as the town neighbor for ages and let Slandaar go for quite some time. Yet here there are all sorts of juicy targets and no one missteps or even risks the overlapping kill. And you have Nacho and ffullisade super-duper confirming one another as town. It's iffy.

I tend to think that, Desperado's read aside, AK is town. The paranoia from Malakittens, the willingness to quit when there was conflict to preserve a friendship, thinking the hydra was being set up to look bad via the NKs. ffullisade's quick vote makes me wonder though what's going on there though.

Looking at that NK list again, from the early game, it also has a lot of formidable players on there early--Syryana and Red Ryu, EddieFenix, Thor, KK. ArcAngel9 was unlikely to be lynched due to playing to her town meta. People there that would have been problematic for Nacho. And if you look at the wagons on the scum lynches, Nacho was the one who pulled people over to the Seanald wagon--no one was listening to me. Nacho's probably the most assertive player left here, and neither side has wanted to kill him? I get that there's a mindset from some scum that if you leave a skilled player alive long enough town paranoia will off him for you, but the loudest one pushing for Nacho's lynch yesterday IIRC was Desperado--town, not scum.

My take on the game right now is that Bulbazak is red scum. Nacho is looking more and more likely to be scum of some sort. And that leaves AK or ffullisade as the other scum. I think we could sort it out if Bulbazak does flip red scum based on how Nacho-AK-ffullisade processed the info that there'd been a failed kill on Bulbazak and Seanald had flipped red scum doc and ThAd determined that he'd only lost a shot on one night.

I don't know, I want to look at the wagons on the lynches. Some of this might be rampant paranoia, and maybe we're still better off hunting scummy individuals. But like I said above, if the one red-one blue scum are in Nacho, AK, ffullisade, we won't care which color we lynch at that point.

PV, where do you think the scum are? Or if it's more useful for you, where are your town reads right now? Bottom line, I think Bulbazak should be the lynch today. I can't find an explanation for him surviving ThAd's vig shot as town barring KK being asleep at the wheel, and I don't tend to assume incompetence when there's another more likely explanation.

[penguin_alien]

ffullisade: AK, Nacho, and Bulbazak haven't even checked in yet. Which actually makes me suspicious of that whole group, as I'd expect scum to want to see the lay of the land before picking a line of attack.

[penguin_alien]

ffullisade, I know I sound like a broken record, but PLEASE explain to me how, knowing that ThAd's shot on Bulbazak was absorbed by protection, only a completely inept JK would use a night action to hinder a vig proving himself, and red scum likely had the only other protective role, Bulbazak isn't scum. I get that people say KK had a town read on Bulbazak, but keep in mind that was also before Slandaar's flip made Bulbazak the counterwagon to a town lynch. Flips -> information -> changed reads overnight.

[penguin_alien]

What AK is saying is something that was on my mind when I thought HD was going to flip blue scum. If he'd been blue, red scum would have come in at LyLo today. Given that they were an intact team for so much of the game, they had to have been planning who they wanted around. And Nacho set things up yesterday if he's red scum so that even if only he survived and was last scum standing at 3p LyLo, he would have you two (AK and ffullisade) right there. Especially ffullisade--no offense intended, just that he's been assuring you that he sees you as oh-so-town, and it's flattering to be read 'correctly.' It even seemed like he was setting up both me and AK to be mislynches, with the whole reading us as town but having doubt set in without any change in analysis beyond presumed PoE at that hypothetical point.

It's late, I'm not sure I'm making much sense here.

ffullisade, you said you're nervous about PV. Based on stuff from last page, I can see a scenario where he's red scum, but it's weak. I'm also not thinking that the push to lynch him two days ago fits in with that theory very well.

P-edit: Sure, I know it's a smaller group left alive and people's schedules get crazy, stuff happens, especially for the significant part of the site that's going back to school around now. I do believe there is scum in that group though, and said scum probably is avoiding getting involved until we show our cards.

[penguin_alien]

Yeah...still not blue scum.

You think KK protected you (and it would have been protection, not a roleblock, since you'd claimed VT) after seeing that you were the counterwagon to a town lynch? Please elaborate on where you planned to have CTD protected, and what was the deal with the Slandaar wagon at the end of the day that you think is relevant? I've read back about ten pages from the Slandaar lynch, and I"m not seeing what you're talking about.

I'm not thinking PV is scum. I'm asking ffullisade why they have doubts because it takes a lot of mental gymnastics to see how they could be, and the case collapses when considered as a whole. If I'd had a scum read on PV, I'd have helped push his lynch Day Five. Hell, if I was blue scum I sure wouldn't have been defending PV and trying to derail his wagon in favor of the town considering where scum was in the neighborhoods more carefully than any of the presented arguments were doing. Yes, yes, WIFOM and all, but PV was at least at L-2 with people strongly in favor of lynching from the neighborhoods. Pushing that wagon over wouldn't have been hard.

[penguin_alien]

Nacho, why are you being so cavalier?

Bulbazak, so your argument is that you suggested the likely vig target be protected even though the vig needed to prove himself. Which made KK think you were town? And you being the counterwagon to a flipped town wagon did make you a likely lynch the next day. Therefore very unlikely to be NK'd by scum. So how does it work that KK protects you when you're almost inevitably going to flip the next day anyways? He should hope that you do get vigged to save the town a lynch.

And if he thought you were scum under such heavy suspicion, why would he block you? The likelihood your team would send you out to kill when everyone thought there was a good chance of a tracker around (no way to know it was red scum's then) is very low.

[penguin_alien]

I'm pretty convinced Bulbazak is scum. ffullisade, why do you think he's blue? And for that matter, do you think I'm red scum who hard-bussed Seanald?

Bulbazak has now said the vig shot on him must not have gone through because he was JK'd. He doesn't know why this would happen and thinks speculation on the dead guy's motives is pointless. And it would be, if a scum doc hadn't flipped.

Everyone else: think back to the end of day three. Does it make sense to anyone that a town JK would protect Bulbazak after Slandaar flipped town? Does it make sense that a town JK would expect Bulbazak to be doing a team's factional kill there and so want to block him? If people think I'm completely loony, I'll reset, but I don't think I am.

[penguin_alien]

ffullisade. Look at the flips. Look at the PRs that were in play. There's no hidden information going on here--I'm a VT. Bulbazak survived a vig shot that wasn't blocked when the only known town protective PR had no logical reason to target him that night.

[penguin_alien]

This attack is nothing more than PA grasping at straws in Mylo in order to push a mislynch.

So you think I'm blue scum, yet you think I'm deliberately pushing a mislynch? Those two statements don't mesh.

[penguin_alien]

Nacho's red roleblocker theory makes sense, and it could be balanced with two of the red scum in the neighborhoods and thus vulnerable to being outed/caught. It certainly explains why scum didn't block the vig kill when they thought it was going on CTD but did when it was clear that ThAd might shoot elsewhere the next night/shoot without discussing with with his neighbor.

Nacho, do you seriously think I'm scum with Bulbazak? Or scum at all, for that matter?

[penguin_alien]

...yeah, I'd have shot him by now. And if he truly thought I was scum he'd have shot me trying to cross-kill; as it stands he's probably trying to get me mislynched, given what a great late-game target I tend to make.

[penguin_alien]

Bottom line, I'm quite convinced he's red scum. I do not buy that KK jailkept him, especially since the arguments for that have ranged from KK town-reading him to KK scum-reading him. If I were blue scum, I'd want him out of the way over, say, Baezu and ThAd from two nights ago. And if I were red scum, my bussing Seanald was not only utterly out of character but also completely bone-headed, irrelevant as that is to the Bulbazak issue. Actually, if I were one of two blue scum with CTD, why would I want town to start lynching in the neighborhoods at all, opening the door to CTD being lynched? I, quite frankly, suck as a lone scum team survivor. Yes, it's a self-serving argument; doesn't mean it's not true.

I suppose there's a minute chance he's blue scum who thinks he has a fall gal in me. More likely he's red scum, in which case he and his team should have NK'd me if they truly thought I was the last blue scum standing.

[penguin_alien]

Because I now think that you're right about red scum having at least three PRs including a roleblocker; it's the only way all the vigging shenanigans make sense, and it really makes sense that they'd be disadvantaged by putting at least some of their PRs in neighborhoods and/or putting multiple members in neighborhoods. Which makes red scum Bulbazak and PV by my figuring. You, I'm not sure. Thing is, I would think scum-you would have gotten me mislynched quite handily after I replaced in for Baby Spice. Maybe not Day One, but why not divert onto me over thez on Day Two if you were blue scum? And if you were red scum, why rally support for my Seanald suspicions. I suppose you could be blue scum, but I'm hesitant after helping mislynch HD yesterday to think that I have a bead on blue scum.

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: Bulbazak

If you don't think red has the roleblocker, you say blue has the roleblocker. Why wouldn't blue have blocked ThAd when he was saying he would shoot CTD?

Could be three red scum to four blue. Either way I think you're red scum; we can sort out if you had a buddy afterwards.

[penguin_alien]

Looking over VCs, Nacho has to be frustrated Red scum. And right now thinking rolecop, since his CTD read went from town to "stale" to surprise massive scum-case.

Anyone want to tackle an evolving Nacho-CTD tow-to-scumread?

You think town and scum had/have a role cop? Where does a scum roleblocker fit in?

And in response to someone who said I was roleblocker-fishing, ffullisade I think, um, duh? Rena and ThAd reports indicate there's a scum roleblocker. If we know who it is, we know a scum. I was kind of hoping that all the stuff I was spewing about it early in the day might net something. I don't think it did.

[penguin_alien]

Where did penguin go?

IRL responsibilities + no inclination to change my vote = lack of time to delve into anything in this game over the weekend

Looking over VCs, Nacho has to be frustrated Red scum. And right now thinking rolecop, since his CTD read went from town to "stale" to surprise massive scum-case.

Anyone want to tackle an evolving Nacho-CTD tow-to-scumread?

And Mastin has way too much VC info for it not to be used. Looking at some of the early wagons and voting should bring up more info.

Any follow-up on this?

And in response to someone who said I was roleblocker-fishing, ffullisade I think, um, duh? Rena and ThAd reports indicate there's a scum roleblocker. If we know who it is, we know a scum. I was kind of hoping that all the stuff I was spewing about it early in the day might net something. I don't think it did.

Who do you have as town? Who do you have as blue?

You're town. If it's not a four-man red scum team with three PRs (namely with a roleblocker plus flipped PRs) then PV's clear. I'm a bit thrown by the lack of engagement from AK when it was a hydra on the topic of the NK's allegedly framing them, and I think AK-Ms Marangal's my first choice for blue scum, followed by Nacho. Nacho could be red scum, but I'm not seeing how the speculation on red scum team composition benefits him much.

[penguin_alien]

How did you get a 4 man red team with 3 PRs? Heck, how did you get red having a roleblocker in an even scumteam situation?

The claimed events from ThAd and Rena indicate to me that there is a scum roleblocker who cannot be blue, so he must be red. The chain of logic starts from figuring that the roleblocker has to be red, then considering team composition rather than considering team composition and then trying to place the roleblocker, if I'm explaining that coherently.

I'm leaning toward uneven in number teams, but if there are four red scum to match the likely four blue scum, the only way I see to weaken that would be to put another red scum in a neighborhood where he's vulnerable to lynching/being caught out by his neighbor. Unless the last blue scum has a completely kick-ass PR, then there could be four red scum with only Seanald in the neighborhood. But I can't think of a PR that's good enough to join with Ninja to complement Doctor-Tracker-Roleblocker.

So my theories from likeliest to least are three red scum--all PRs--one neighbor, four red scum--three PRs--two neighbors, four red scum--three PRs--one neighbor--blue scum has Ninja + kickass PR.

[penguin_alien]

The claimed events from ThAd and Rena indicate to me that there is a scum roleblocker who cannot be blue, so he must be red.

What are you talking about?

The chain of logic starts from figuring that the roleblocker has to be red, then considering team composition rather than considering team composition and then trying to place the roleblocker, if I'm explaining that coherently.

Except you just leapt to "roleblocker must be red" with no logic whatsoever and then filled everything in with gobbledy gook. You haven't addressed my previous question. Why did you jump straight to red must have 3 PRs?

So my theories from likeliest to least are three red scum--all PRs--one neighbor, four red scum--three PRs--two neighbors, four red scum--three PRs--one neighbor--blue scum has Ninja + kickass PR.

Again, you have red scum as always having 3 PRs when we don't have the data to back that up. How did you reach this conclusion? It seems like quite a reach.

Ffullisade, you are not addressing any of my posts to you. I'd like you to rectify that please.

P-edit: And that tells you what?

This is in my ISO. But again, ThAd-Vig says he's shooting blue CTD. He instead uses a shot that is absorbed by protection on you. That same night, Rena says she is blocked. WHY would blue scum risk losing half their remaining team to ThAd's shot if they could prevent it? Why not block him and NK Rena if they thought she might witness the block?

Then, when ThAd's claimed actions the next day indicate he might shoot unpredictably, then he's blocked. So:

--A blue RB would have blocked him the third (first) night
--A town RB wouldn't have blocked him at all, or blocked Rena
--A red roleblocker...yeah, it fits. Even if we pretend you're not red, it's obvious that the roleblocker was happy to let the vig shoot when they thought he was pledged to hit someone the knew about and wasn't them, not so much when they couldn't predict his shot.

I've laid this out more than once now. Please don't pretend like I'm taking flights of fancy here.

[penguin_alien]

PV, why would town and scum get rolecops?

Sorry, I'll dive into more of this after this:

Mod, I need to go V/LA for 48 hours; time-intensive company is in town. Thanks!

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Bulbazak

For now. I'll be around in the morning, but I'm wavering a bit here. It is true that even if Seanald wouldn't have been that day's lynch without Nacho turning the wagon, but as a claimed neighbor his days were likely numbered.

Bulbazak and PV, if Nacho is red scum, what's his motive for floating a theory and apparently standing behind it that red scum is a three-man team and so is down to one member? He's not using it as an excuse to hunt blue scum instead of red from what I can tell.

[penguin_alien]

I'll sleep on it. And reread the logic in the morning. I'm also not sure why scum-Nacho wouldn't have tried to mislynch me Day One when I replaced in. Granted, that's a personal perspective, but he knows I'm not a hard lynch. Although I may have answered my own question in that thought, as I do make good lynch bait.

Now I'm really going to bed.

[penguin_alien]

Head says Bulbazak, gut says Nacho. My head always leads me astray.

VOTE: Nacho

[penguin_alien]

...if I were blue scum, why would I be desperate not to be lynched? We need to lynch red scum today, full stop.

Is it possible that blue scum Nacho would purposely avoid Cephrir?

UNVOTE: Nacho

I'm not sure ATM.

[penguin_alien]

Because my gut says that the NKing of players likely to challenge you is an indicator you were behind the NKs. But I have a personal aversion to following my gut.

[penguin_alien]

Honestly? Because I was on my way out the door to run errands, and I was concerned I wouldn't have a chance to post before deadline.

[penguin_alien]

I mentioned the NKs earlier; no one's been interested in talking about it. Just like no one's wanted to comment on the vig-doc-RB-watcher interactions or AK-Mala didn't want to follow up on the theory she was being framed via NKs.

[penguin_alien]

That the not-you scum team had other priorities. If you look back at my list of the deaths, there was only one matching the profile each night.

[penguin_alien]

Spoiler: the relevant post

Sounds right to me. I think scum hunting in general is going to be our best play, as if we run up blue scum they'll claim as such and we can sort things out then.

There's some weird stuff going on in this game, as I outlined a bit before, and right now I'm mostly sure you (PV) are town. I'm also pretty sure Bulbazak is scum due to the failed vig shot. It just doesn't add up that KK would protect him when he was a clear vig target as the alternate wagon to a town lynch. Sure, people have argued that he'd claimed VT and so KK would have figured he wasn't blocking a PR, but we had a claimed vig. Preserving a claimed VT who'd been scummy enough to be wagoned at the expense of denying a vig town cred doesn't add up. Even if he was working from the assumption Bulbazak was town, he certainly couldn't then have thought either scum team would shoot a potential mislynch at that time.

That leaves two scum, one town from {Nacho, ffullisade, AK} Desperado seemed to think AK and Nacho were possibly scum yesterday. I wish he'd elaborated on why he switched to HD specifically over them. Since Bulbazak is incredibly likely to be red scum, that means the two other scum are on opposite teams. Which is where it gets interesting.

Look at the NK'd players list, leaving out Cephrir since you told us ThAd shot him:

1: Syryana, Red Ryu--we can safely guess red scum killed Red Ryu and so blue scum killed Syryana.
2: EddieFenix, Thor665--no idea here
3: Kublai Khan, ArcAngel9--no idea here
4: Nero Cain, Rena--Rena is the claimed town PR here
5: Baezu, ThAd--ThAd is the claimed town PR here
6: Desperado--unknown whether scum double-targeted or one side was blocked

Nights 4 and 5 in particular--working from the assumption that only Seanald and CTD were scum in the neighborhoods, both sides were staring at minimum four unlynchable players from Night Four on: three of {you, Desperado, ThAd, CTD}, Rena. Blue scum may not have wanted to dive into the neighborhoods at all to maximize the cover for CTD, but both sides should have wanted Rena dead. And red scum should have wanted to start killing off neighbors who were going to be conf-town. So why is only one unlynchable NK'd? Same thing Night Five--I'd have expected both scum teams to shoot in the neighborhoods, never mind the risk of overlapping. But instead shots have been fired at Nero Cain and Baezu? Last night changes things up, but it's been pretty serendipitous for scum before that.

Maybe I'm indulging in extreme paranoia here, but it looks to me like the remaining red and blue scum are able to divvy up the town, so to speak. Like they're predicting where the other team will kill in a way that's pretty hard to do. If we're talking Street Racers, I remember that we worked really hard to avoid kills that might overlap there, and we had almost no obv/conf-town targets during the time I was involved. We avoided Darthe as the town neighbor for ages and let Slandaar go for quite some time. Yet here there are all sorts of juicy targets and no one missteps or even risks the overlapping kill. And you have Nacho and ffullisade super-duper confirming one another as town. It's iffy.

I tend to think that, Desperado's read aside, AK is town. The paranoia from Malakittens, the willingness to quit when there was conflict to preserve a friendship, thinking the hydra was being set up to look bad via the NKs. ffullisade's quick vote makes me wonder though what's going on there though.

Looking at that NK list again, from the early game, it also has a lot of formidable players on there early--Syryana and Red Ryu, EddieFenix, Thor, KK. ArcAngel9 was unlikely to be lynched due to playing to her town meta. People there that would have been problematic for Nacho. And if you look at the wagons on the scum lynches, Nacho was the one who pulled people over to the Seanald wagon--no one was listening to me. Nacho's probably the most assertive player left here, and neither side has wanted to kill him? I get that there's a mindset from some scum that if you leave a skilled player alive long enough town paranoia will off him for you, but the loudest one pushing for Nacho's lynch yesterday IIRC was Desperado--town, not scum.

My take on the game right now is that Bulbazak is red scum. Nacho is looking more and more likely to be scum of some sort. And that leaves AK or ffullisade as the other scum. I think we could sort it out if Bulbazak does flip red scum based on how Nacho-AK-ffullisade processed the info that there'd been a failed kill on Bulbazak and Seanald had flipped red scum doc and ThAd determined that he'd only lost a shot on one night.

I don't know, I want to look at the wagons on the lynches. Some of this might be rampant paranoia, and maybe we're still better off hunting scummy individuals. But like I said above, if the one red-one blue scum are in Nacho, AK, ffullisade, we won't care which color we lynch at that point.

PV, where do you think the scum are? Or if it's more useful for you, where are your town reads right now? Bottom line, I think Bulbazak should be the lynch today. I can't find an explanation for him surviving ThAd's vig shot as town barring KK being asleep at the wheel, and I don't tend to assume incompetence when there's another more likely explanation.

[penguin_alien]

...because ffullisade has been so effective at getting you lynched. And I do think you could be blue.

[penguin_alien]

...or you can ask me?

Although I didn't actually get my vote back on Bulbazak before nightfall, it's true that if I'd favored Nacho's lynch over Bulbazak's, I think my vote there would have made it so.

I felt like Nacho wasn't engaging the same way most of the rest of the town was. His reaction to my vote tipped his hand and made him try to mislynch me earlier than he'd obviously planned. Suddenly with half an hour before deadline he wants to talk about my theories? Sure, when he's afraid I might not help him lynch red scum. Especially his comment here:

or, we can flashwagon penguin.

He had no reason to think for certain we were at one red scum and one blue scum rather than 2:1. (Heck, we're still not guaranteed that such is the case if red scum no-killed to support the uneven scum team numbers theory. But if that's the case we're screwed anyways, so we might as well assume we're down to one blue scum.) Yet he suddenly wants to wagon me? That's a blue scum-last-man-standing attitude who'd rather see anyone but himself swing.

Let's think about what the red team did after CTD's lynch. That was the night where ThAd killed Cephrir, plus Baezu and ThAd died. Bulbazak obviously didn't block ThAd that night. Why not? With the level of town power revealed at that point, red scum had to be pretty confident that all the town PRs were either revealed or dead. Given that their biggest night threat was being killed, either by the vig or a remaining blue scum (and even if there were only the three of them that flipped, they had to assume that blue being Ninja-goon-goon didn't balance against Doc-Tracker-RB), their roleblocker should have been cutting off one of these threats. Even if they couldn't kill and PR while there was more than one alive, the roleblocker was more use than the tracker. Bulbazak had me as his top blue scum suspect at the end of Day Five here:

2 teams of 4:

Blue - CTD and PA. She appeared to soft defend Thez on d2, and that stuck out for me at the time and made me think that she could possibly be blue. The only other thing that sticks out scum-wise for me is BS's crappy Nacho case d1, which seemed awfully stretched to me. PA has given me more of a town vibe recently, though, so I may be way off here. Outside chance that HD might be blue scum for similar, albeit more subtle, reasons.

Why wouldn't he block me that night? Answer: he probably did, and three kills went through, surprise, surprise. He blocked someone else the next night and saw only one kill. But he had to spin me as scum because I wouldn't drop the issue of him being protected from ThAd's vig shot. Seeing as I had been all over Seanald he knew he couldn't paint me red, so he went with blue based on the fact that I didn't think thezmon221 would be foolish enough to use a fake role claim his scum team had been caught using in a recent game with a significant overlap in player base. Which, yeah, I expect a certain level of competency from people around here. Waving a universal back-up claim in front of Slandaar as scum in that situation doesn't match up.

So we have Bulbazak keeping me in his pocket as a mislynch. Funny, Nacho's doing the same thing. I come in Day One into a slot Nacho's reading as scum, and he figures out I'm town pronto. We go all the way to Day Six, and only then does Nacho even start to 'waver' on that read, saying:

i waffle on pa and ak because if they are scum this is the best damn scumplay i've seem from them. i would LOVE to see what happens after we lynch human destroyer because no one is even marginally reading him as town but for some reason they still don't want to lynch them.

This doesn't track. He's setting up for a mislynch because he knows HD isn't going to flip blue. And then by Day Seven he's merrily going along with his scum read Bulbazak's read on me. Can't imagine where the motivation is for that.

Having established that Nacho's raring to mislynch me, having shepherded me along since I replaced in, let's look at why he's blue. (I can explain why I'm not blue, but really, if you consider my play here, unless you really think I'd sit around arguing with a teammate over a poor faked claim, I'd say it's pretty clear)

Here as Desperado pointed out, CTD puts this whole list of people:
-Nachomamma8
-Desperado
-Om the Destroyer
-Thor
-ActionDan
-fuzzy
as almost guaranteed town. Odds that he's try to slip a scum buddy in there? Pretty good.

Actually, just go check out Desperado's post; he runs down lists from Red Ryu, thezmon221, and CTD. All of them put Nacho in places where scum would put a buddy. Red Ryu lists him as a read without actually assigning him an alignment, thez has him as his only legit scum read to start, then moves him up the list as he nears being lynched, CTD distances in his later reads.

Meanwhile, quick-reading Nacho's ISO starting from the beginning of Day One has him in a weird synergy with CTD. CTD's letting himself be persuaded of Nacho's scumminess, and Nacho is just going with the flow, not pushing back like I'd expect. Example:

It surprises me that you take so much issue with me voting Desperado above DLG. I'm sorting Desperado out because I don't think he's DLG's scumbuddy and he is the stronger read. It doesn't mean that I'm unwilling to compromise; that's a misrep. Why do you take so much issue with it?

Then he's mostly not engaged with flipped blue scum. Since two were dead by the end of Day Two, there's not as much anyways, but he really doesn't engage with CTD after the show of the first day. He gets into it a bit WRT Rena, who he strongly pushes. Rena was scummy and suspect, but places like this:

Nacho suggests that ThAd should be lynched if he keeps getting blocked, but his entire point here is that ThAd was blocked and Rena was not, so there should be no reason to assume that he won't be blocked in the future (unless Rena flips roleblocker herself). If we lynch Rena and she flips town, we actually make it easier for scum to block ThAd because they have one PR less to juggle. Nacho also suggests that ThAd should be lynched if Rena flips town, which is convenient as fuck if my suspicions are true that scum blocked Rena last night.

Any power role should be lynched if they "keep getting blocked". You understand the reasoning for that, don't you? I also believe that Rena and ThAd didn't just happen to both get blocked last night because that doesn't make any sense at all; you can say "oh, maybe KK protected Bulbazak or mafia doc protected Bulbazak" but I believe that those situations are unlikely; I don't think that KK would target Rena or Bulbazak or ThAd last night, and I find it unlikely that there is an additional blocking role to one scum roleblocker, and I don't find it likely that scumdoc would be targetting bulbazak over their own buddies (since I find it highly unlikely bulbazak is scum) when there is a vig and an opposing scumteam to worry about.

read as him and CTD establishing themselves on opposite sides of the argument. And this whole time they're arguing over Bulbazak in circles.

When it comes to actually lynching CTD, here's how he started that day:

Yeah there pretty much has to be one scum out of ctd/pere.

and his name is pere!

His vote's then on him for most of the day. When Nacho does actually opt to lynch CTD it's off set-up spec. Set-up spec that gives him room to push ThAd if ThAd survives, since he knows CTD won't flip roleblocker.

This actually makes me think Nacho wouldn't have NK'd ThAd, which segues into the NK analysis:

Full list of kills, colors added when we know who likely shot them. PV, if any of these were unclaimed ThAd vig shots from early in the game that change the results, speak up:

Syryana (Friendly Neighbor)

Red Ryu (Blue Mafia Ninja)

shot Night One.

EddieFenix (Town Rolecop)

Thor665 (Vanilla Townie)

shot Night Two.
Kublai Khan (Town Jailkeeper) ArcAngel9 (Vanilla Townie) shot Night Three.

Nero Cain (Vanilla Townie)

Rena (Haylen) (Town Watcher)

shot Night Four.

Cephrir, Red Mafia Tracker, shot Night Five.

(vig shot)

Baezu (Vanilla Townie)

ThAdmiral (3-shot Vigilante)

shot Night Five.

Desperado (Vanilla Neighbor) shot Night Six.

MS Marangal (Vanilla Townie) shot Night Seven.

Nights 2-5 are murky. But I'd guess Nacho's team shot Thor. Night Three, hard to say; if both teams thought the Watcher was legit, they'd have avoided high profile targets. My money's on Nacho's team shooting AA9, as she was a strong town read, although if they were setting up AK, they could have shot KK here too. I'd guess red actually shot Nero, since if Bulbazak wasn't lynched after the doc protect saved him under such dubious circumstances, they probably thought he was good to go and killing off his detractor was worth the risk. That lines up with Nacho failing to get Rena lynched and resorting to NKing her. ThAd seemed to have a bead on red scum with shooting at Bulbazak, which makes him more likely to be a red kill than blue. That has Nacho getting rid of Bacde, someone he was 'strongly townreading' for quite some time and would have trouble reversing on at XyLo.

I'm pretty sure Nacho is the blue scum. Given that if there was a red scum they were probably better off shooting last night to be at 1:1:1 or 2:1 today, I think it's simple MyLo.

As such, I'm very confident that PV is town; I doubt blue scum got 1-2 PRs and had two members in neighborhoods versus a red team of three PRs and one neighborhood member.

ffullisade, I have a general sense of fferyllt and a better one of pirate mollie; I'd be surprised if you were blue scum. Going through Nacho's game took a while here, and I want to do that for your various hydra incarnations here before I vote (when it's not after 2 AM my time), but I tend to think that Nacho brought me as the mislynch bait and you as the buddy, jettisoning AK/MM and going all-in on me.

[penguin_alien]

^ that got long; sorry. I just hate being mislynched at the end of long games, and I don't want another NY 161 experience.

[penguin_alien]

In that case, apologies for the interruption. I'll hush now.

[penguin_alien]

I felt like Nacho wasn't engaging the same way most of the rest of the town was.

I have 570 posts. Where the hell wasn't I engaging?

I'm not talking about the whole game. Last day phase didn't feel like you were as dedicated to figuring out scum so much as figuring out the distribution. You perked up when you were under fire though.

His reaction to my vote tipped his hand and made him try to mislynch me earlier than he'd obviously planned. Suddenly with half an hour before deadline he wants to talk about my theories? Sure, when he's afraid I might not help him lynch red scum. Especially his comment here:

That describes my mindset pretty solidly, minus the use of "mislynch". If you didn't want to lynch opposing scum, then of course I'm going to see if Bulbazak. Why wouldn't I? Otherwise I'm pretty fucking dead thanks to plurality rules, and that doesn't leave a beautiful MyLo the next day, especially if Bulba blocked scum and killed town.

Yeah, but I'm not scum. So lynching me yesterday would have left you worse off, stuck with Bulbazak apparently blocking you and picking you off at his leisure.

Yet he suddenly wants to wagon me? That's a blue scum-last-man-standing attitude who'd rather see anyone but himself swing.

Why do you say that? Being a survivalist becomes less scummy as the days go on and the room for error dwindles.

Why not actually argue for your chosen lynch then? Vaguely going for a mislynch doesn't help. If you were a townie, being mislynched doesn't utterly destroy your side's hope for victory, but being lynched as last scum standing sure does.

Why wouldn't he block me that night? Answer: he probably did, and three kills went through, surprise, surprise. He blocked someone else the next night and saw only one kill. But he had to spin me as scum because I wouldn't drop the issue of him being protected from ThAd's vig shot. Seeing as I had been all over Seanald he knew he couldn't paint me red, so he went with blue based on the fact that I didn't think thezmon221 would be foolish enough to use a fake role claim his scum team had been caught using in a recent game with a significant overlap in player base. Which, yeah, I expect a certain level of competency from people around here. Waving a universal back-up claim in front of Slandaar as scum in that situation doesn't match up.

I see you trying to clear yourself with a Bulbazak block.
It's an interesting attempt.

So it's N5, there's no more than one blue scum left, red scum doesn't opt to block ThAd as NKs show. Cephrir and Bulbazak were pushing me as blue scum. Why wouldn't they block me? I contend that they would have. Yes, it's night action speculation, but it was bang on with Bulbazak being protected as far as I can tell.

So we have Bulbazak keeping me in his pocket as a mislynch. Funny, Nacho's doing the same thing. I come in Day One into a slot Nacho's reading as scum, and he figures out I'm town pronto. We go all the way to Day Six, and only then does Nacho even start to 'waver' on that read, saying:

I haven't been paying attention to you for the past few days, as you can probably imagine. I also didn't really waver on Bulbazak until that day (if i recall correctly), so I don't understand why this is scum mislynching town as opposed to town pushing who they think is scum and you don't post any reasoning to explain that.

First off, I'm town, so I know my lynch would be a mislynch. You say you haven't been paying attention to me--not sure why when we've been at fewer than ten players the last two days, me not being a high-volume poster aside. You going from town reading me to saying that if AK or I is scum it's better scum play than you've seen from us to flipping a coin to vote me is what lacks reasoning. Your stance on Bulbazak actually makes sense for scum; you also figured he was scum for the N3 shenanigans, but you wanted him around as an easy target to 'see the light' about down the road, hence pretending to town read him against all logic.

(I can explain why I'm not blue, but really, if you consider my play here, unless you really think I'd sit around arguing with a teammate over a poor faked claim, I'd say it's pretty clear)

Why not?

What motivation would I have to see a teammate fake claim, see town pick it apart, and give it any credence? If I were scum with him, knowing his history with having his scum teammate fakeclaim that role in a game with overlapping players, at the least I'd be distancing myself if not bussing outright.

as almost guaranteed town. Odds that he's try to slip a scum buddy in there? Pretty good.

He could have also posted genuine reads.

And he could have thrown darts at a board to pick his reads. Doesn't mean he did; it's more likely he called a buddy town when he could do so conveniently.

Then he's mostly not engaged with flipped blue scum. Since two were dead by the end of Day Two, there's not as much anyways, but he really doesn't engage with CTD after the show of the first day. He gets into it a bit WRT Rena, who he strongly pushes. Rena was scummy and suspect, but places like this:

I've engaged plenty with CTD and CTD's interacted plenty with me.
I'm 100% confident we've interacted more than you two!

Am I missing interactions between you two?

I wasn't shot by red because I had Bulbazak as a strong townread. I wasn't shot by blue because I had penguin/CTD as strong townreads.

I NK people who strong town read me as scum. If I were last blue standing, I'd have NK'd you over ThAd or Baezu on Night Five.

I'm the mislynch! Peregrine is expected to wind up against me and you're the one penguin wants to lynch.
Peregrine couldn't be mislynched because everyone thinks he's town.
You can't be mislynched because everyone thinks your town (although it's not explicit).
Mara couldn't be mislynched after replace out business.
I'm a hard sell, but at least there's a possibility of it.

I don't want to lynch ffullisade...?


Given that I don't see PV as possible scum, and ffullisade reads as sincerely trying to figure out where scum is today:

VOTE: Nacho

[penguin_alien]

How do you figure blue scum couldn't afford a mislynch at N5/D6?

My take in your classification of us yesterday is 'PV town for neighborhood, ffullisade likely to agree with me since I've been calling them town and linking that town read to my supposed towniness, Bulbazak opposite scum, AK/MM and PA my final mislynch bait choices'

Why wouldn't CTD call a buddy town in the middle of that kind of strongly worded case? Otherwise he's just eliminated a swath of town/not blue scum as lynchable.

[penguin_alien]

At this point, I can't think of any role for blue scum that would balance red having three decent PRs with a fourth member. Maybe a JOAT with major powers, but it doesn't seem likely. If you think that's possible, we need to no-lynch. Otherwise I think it was a single kill. The Desperado shot on the other hand could be overlapping kills, as both teams would have motive to eliminate him, I suppose.

[penguin_alien]

At this point, I can't think of any role for blue scum that would balance red having three decent PRs with a fourth member. Maybe a JOAT with major powers, but it doesn't seem likely. If you think that's possible, we need to no-lynch. Otherwise I think it was a single kill. The Desperado shot on the other hand could be overlapping kills, as both teams would have motive to eliminate him, I suppose.

Or Bulba blocked the Blue kill. Given the resurgence of your interest in the roleblocker theory, I've kinda thought that's what happened.

That's quite a hole in your speculation.

I've considered whether Bulbazak blocked the blue scum quite a bit in this thread and concluded that if he blocked me it would have been Night Five with no missing kills, not Night Six. I'm not ignoring the possibility of the blue scum kill being blocked on Night Six; I was addressing PV's speculation that the scum may have overlapped on kills at some point.

I'd been talking about the vig/watcher/scum doc/failed Bulba kill kerfuffle ad nauseum. No one was paying it any attention before yesterday.

[penguin_alien]

PV, I know you were talking about last night; that's the first part of the paragraph. I'd also be surprised if you or ffullisade was red scum who felt most threatened by Ms Marangal. MM stopped engaging with ffullisade more or less after the replace-out. And I'd expect you to have killed me for floating the 'two red neighbors' theory.

What PR could pair with Ninja to balance that much red scum power?

UNVOTE: Nacho while we make sure a no-lynch isn't necessary.

[penguin_alien]

Red scum has flexible BP-ness in the doc and can find town PRs/blue scum via tracker. JOAT is possible, and I agree that it might provide flexibility, but the neighborhoods mechanic seemed elegant, and if a JOAT was used to provide balance, that seems less so.

P-edit: that too. But I don't remember who was on that wagon.

[penguin_alien]

So that eliminates PV-Bulbazak as partners, yes? It also makes me think his musings about a fourth red scum are sincere rather than disingenuous.

[penguin_alien]

How does it eliminate PV-Bulbazak as partners?

I don't think they are, but I don't see how this eliminates the possibility.

I still think that Mara not getting hammered day 7 was indicative of singleton scum from both teams.

They could have hammered; risky, yes; deadly, no.

[penguin_alien]

^ Because Nacho has been calling you town? Look, my play makes zero sense as blue scum. Why would I want to encourage the town to continue lynching in the neighborhoods with Seanald if I had my only surviving scum partner in there? Why would I hesitate to lynch PV when his wagon was near a lynch when the only lynchable neighbors were PV and CTD? Why would I night kill ThAd or Baezu? (ThAd never indicated he'd shoot me, and if I were a lone scum I'd want the vig to thin out the numbers, and I was thinking Baezu was scummy, but why would I NK someone whose lynch I could push the next day? Frankly, if CTD and I were scum buddies alone on Days Four and Five, I'd expect him to blacklist me based on how my play would have screwed our team over.

ffullisade, what part of my case on Nacho do you disagree with? Why do you think I'm scum? Because I don't remember either of your heads really delving into this yesterday, which, Bulbazak was more important to help figure out if we had two or one red scum left, so I get that, but this is a new day.

This whole thing makes me feel like I'm back in NY 161, which I think everyone left but fferyllt was in: I get carried along to the end and used as the last mislynch bait, and it was the second most frustrating game I've played here. If Nacho's snowed you, fine, well-played to him, I'll continue to work on not being such good XyLo mislynch bait. But when we're talking about a 250+ page game that most everyone's been playing for five months now, I hate to see us lose it without the most rigorous effort possible.

PV, I'm in the 1 blue scum left camp, not the 2:1:1, for balance reasons and if there was a red scum left it would have been in his best interest to make an NK, and the odds of him picking the same NK are about 3/16, not factoring in that I'd expect such scum to overlap on you or ffullisade before overlapping on MM. Where are you currently on that? Who do you think is scum?

[penguin_alien]

Ditto.

[penguin_alien]

This is my first mastin2-modded game, so I can't comment on the likelihood he'd go for asymmetry based on past experience.

The only mastin2-modded game I can find in his topics is Mini 1304 with the following set-up:

Mafia Cop
Mafia Goon x 2

Doctor
Roleblocker
Miller
VT x 7

the hook there being that scum had the info roles, useless though they were, and town had the night power. His notes indicate he was going to have a vig to look like an SK at work, but he jettisoned that.

The idea of red no-killing to play into the prevailing theory that we were at 4:3 blue:red to start does make sense from a certain point of view.

If PV's right then no-lynching is our best move. If he's wrong, it doesn't really hurt anything to make it MyLo vs. LyLo.

[penguin_alien]

...I also think Nacho is blue scum for reasons detailed earlier rather than pure PoE. But since actively lynching wrong in either of the above cases guarantees a town loss at 3:1 and increases the odds of a town loss at 2:1:1, I don't see any reason not to hear PV out after the game has already gone on for months.

/poke response

[penguin_alien]

Because if two of the three of you are scum, lynching has a 2/3s chance of hitting scum and handing the game to the other scum faction. At least no-lynching gives us some chance that scum will cross-shoot. And trying to lynch town doesn't help us, as presumably we'd be stringing up someone who neither scum would shoot anyways.

YMMV. Personally I don't think we have two scum left, rendering the discussion academic.

[penguin_alien]

So what's the disadvantage of no-lynching?

[penguin_alien]

Works for me.

VOTE: No Lynch

[penguin_alien]

Well, according to you, Penguin (the last scum) is going to kill off both you and Ffullisade (because you both suspect him).

penguin is going to kill ffullisade.

...way to set it up for you to NK ffullisade and turn it into proof that I must be scum. I'm pretty sure this is classic WIFOM fodder.

[penguin_alien]

Confirmation bias FTW!

[penguin_alien]

PV, ffullisade, any questions you want to discuss? I still see no advantage to lynching today over tomorrow if PV's not sure about scum distribution.

[penguin_alien]

Being mislynch bait
Truly is irritating
Nothing left to say

[penguin_alien]

I liked ffery's poems better.

Ach, everyone's a critic.

[penguin_alien]

I see zero way PV is scum. Not likely red, and no way he's blue. As such,

VOTE: Nacho

If you don't surprise me and quickhammer, PV, here are my thoughts on Nacho; I'll answer questions if you have any.

<<< Why do you torment me so, PA? >>>

Although props to Nacho for setting up the WIFOM with a ffullisade NK.

[penguin_alien]

Vote: penguin alien

Your thoughts on Nacho send a link to the Les Miserables endgame, which I don't think is what you intended to link.

Thanks. Try here

[penguin_alien]

I think we all know ffullisade was ready to help you mislynch me. Neither of you could explain how any of my play tracked to my being scum. The NKs don't benefit me, my play doesn't make sense as scum, nothing.

[penguin_alien]

Gee, why would you NK ffullisade when you spent the whole of yesterday proclaiming that if she died it was clearly an indicator of me being scum? Riddle me that...

If I were obvtown you wouldn't have brought me here as mislynch bait. My point in previous posts is that my play has actively worked against any remotely reasonable scum agendas for either team.

[penguin_alien]

Because... I wasn't engaging as much as the rest of town has? (I have 597 posts in this game).
Because... I was trying to flashwagon you when it looked like Bulbazak wagon wasn't going through? (I thought I could convince Bulba-scum to lynch you)
Because I had no reason to think 1 blue scum and 1 red scum? (Oh wait, I have. I've talked about it quite a bit in these 597 posts!)
Because I mislynched HD?
Because I don't have *enough* interactions with blue scum? Penguin, do you realize that I pushed to get CTD lynched pretty hard in the end, had Red Ryu tunneling the fuck out of me, AND I pushed for thez to get lynched? Meanwhile, your slot has voted exactly *one* blue scum, and that was in the RVS stage.

You have many posts. Congrats.

Wagoning a townie when you weren't sure you could get red scum lynched doesn't speak to your towniness.

Not following what you're saying about one blue and one red scum. At what point in the game are you talking about, and how is it relevant?

I was mistaken about HD. So...?

I seem to recall you pushing for a PV lynch before a CTD lynch that day. In fact I seem to recall this:

Nachomamma8: PeregrineV->Human Destroyer->CrashTextDummie

being your vote history that day, whereas I was discouraging a PV lynch. Why wouldn't you try to get town cred bussing your partner when there wasn't any other choice left? You went for PV first.
I don't know Red Ryu, but it seems quite feasible that he would fake-tunnel you, setting you up to take him down later. As far as thezmon221 goes, I think I've explained quite sufficiently why I found it hard to swallow that he would fake a Universal Back-Up claim as scum given the events of Street Racers in the at-the-time recent past. If I knew he was fake-claiming from the start, why engage with it? I think it was pretty clear that he was going down. Your vote for him:

I didn't realize that you were talking about my case on nacho, which is understandable that you don't want to follow it

Vote: thezmon

Which was clearly appeasing Bacde. No comment on thezmon221 until quite a few posts later, at which point you repeat others' arguments. No town credit; more like you warding off Bacde.

OH, and the NKs only make sense for me as scum?
I apparently killed Syryana who was townreading me the whole time.
Thor, oh of course only nacho would kill him!
Killing the claimed watcher? Nope, only Nacho would kill a PR as strong as the watcher with their ninja dead!
Of course, I'd kill Baezu AFTER Bacde, who was tunneling the living fuck out of me, was replaced out and not while he was actually in the game.

I never said any of these were definite blue kills aside from Syryana (which is probably the last relevant one, given that blue scum had four members left at that point) Interesting that those are the ones you chose to address. But no comment on Ms Marangal/AK-slot?

And of course I would leave ffullisade, the holy matrimony of "people who can actually read me on this site" alive until DAY FUCKING 9. fferyllt and pirate_mollie are actually the two people on this site who I am MOST AFRAID OF AS SCUM, mastin2 in chosen mafia and in xenogears called fferyllt dying N1 for me a SCUMTELL

Granted, SoS was a near-universal townread, so that's an equally-probable cause for nightkill. But still, ffery dieing N1 always makes me paranoid of Nacho.

By the way--I find it no coincidence that the hydra with ffery in it died. Of all the players in this game, I think Nacho fears her the most as scum. Yes, you can write this off as coincidence. But I don't think so. Since I brought up his similarities in this game to his play in Buzzword Bingo mafia, let's actually quote FROM that game.

And he's saying these things as a human being who is moderating this game where SOMEHOW nacho as scum isn't killing fferyllt until NIGHT 8. Do you think mastin would get so suspicious of me when ffery dies N1 if I have demonstrated that I can play around her to such an extent to where I can bring her to LyLo and have her eating out of my hand as scum? Fuck no.

Quite frankly I don't buy that mastin2 would let inside knowledge of an ongoing game he's modding influence anything else. And whatever else their experience may be, they were misreading you here, and given your statements yesterday it makes complete sense that you'd want them dead today before they could rethink things.

This reeks of coaching. "Thez, claim you inherited the two-shot bulletproof so you stop scumslipping!!"

Yeah, I'm going to coach someone more experienced than me when I'm a lousy scum player when they're fake-claiming. Scum-me would put her head down and hope to ignore the whole thing.

As far as Baby Spice goes, here's what you said after I replaced in:

spice girl's frustration looks like town frustration. not interested in her lynch

It threw me for a loop, but I'm definitely going to wait for penguin to check in. I like her style because she's all logical and I won't have to see through any irrational bullshit with her.

No, penguin is probably town.

Note that this is after the thezmon221 lynch.

Later on,

My personal 4 strong townreads are any 4 from ffullisade, Bulbazak, Desperado, and penguin_alien. AK and Baezu probably aren't scum either but there's some backlash against them, meaning that they don't make sense as the CORE TOWN.

So all that time and you maintained the position that Baby Spice's posting wasn't ultimately scummy, my interaction with thezmon221 wasn't scummy, but now it's what you go to? Not likely.

As far as CTD goes, you think on a day where sorting out the neighborhoods was the only sensible play I avoided lynching PV and then wussed out of the CTD wagon? After pushing town to move into the neighborhoods again with the Seanald lynch? If I wanted cred for the lynch, I'd have voted it.

[penguin_alien]

Laptop stolen, access will be limited for a while.

That's totally rotten--I'm sorry to hear that.

PV, I don't think there's any red scum left--there's no way two scum in a 2:1:1 overlapped on NKing a very town player.

OH, and the NKs only make sense for me as scum?
I apparently killed Syryana who was townreading me the whole time.
Thor, oh of course only nacho would kill him!
Killing the claimed watcher? Nope, only Nacho would kill a PR as strong as the watcher with their ninja dead!
Of course, I'd kill Baezu AFTER Bacde, who was tunneling the living fuck out of me, was replaced out and not while he was actually in the game.

Syryana was the N1 kill--NKing him didn't have to be for your benefit as opposed to your teammates'. But that's the only one we can be sure of on this list. The Night 2-3 kills are pretty indeterminate between red and blue targets; I took my best guess but I'm not sure. No, you're not the only one who might want Thor dead, but I definitely find it odd that he died way back on Night Two and you're still kicking on Day Nine. But heck, maybe you NK'd EddieFenix for some reason instead. You're welcome to clarify.

Baezu makes very little sense from any scum perspective, actually.

Syryana (Friendly Neighbor) Red Ryu (Blue Mafia Ninja) shot Night One.
EddieFenix (Town Rolecop) Thor665 (Vanilla Townie) shot Night Two.
Kublai Khan (Town Jailkeeper) ArcAngel9 (Vanilla Townie) shot Night Three.
Nero Cain (Vanilla Townie) Rena (Haylen) (Town Watcher) shot Night Four.
Cephrir, Red Mafia Tracker, shot Night Five. (vig shot)
Baezu (Vanilla Townie) ThAdmiral (3-shot Vigilante) shot Night Five.
Desperado (Vanilla Neighbor) shot Night Six.
MS Marangal (Vanilla Townie) shot Night Seven.

Wagoning a townie when you weren't sure you could get red scum lynched doesn't speak to your towniness.

I didn't offer to flashwagon Peregrine, I didn't offer to flashwagon Marangal, I didn't offer to flashwagon Ffullisade... you know, all of those people who were actually confirmed town. You were pretty much confirmed blue yesterday, hence why I offered to flashwagon you over Bulbazak yesterday. What would you have done in my position as town? Accepted the mislynch?

So you had to try to spend your XyLo mislynch bait early. It wouldn't matter as long as you could get Bulbazak lynched the next day. As long as he could block you, he was unlikely to NK you, and he was more clearly scum than you.

Not following what you're saying about one blue and one red scum. At what point in the game are you talking about, and how is it relevant?

You accused me of knowing there was one blue and one red scum in that wonderful case on me before everyone else did. That's mostly where the relevancy lies.

Flashwagoning town on Day Seven, if you were wrong about 1:1 red:blue left, meant that a 2:2:1 town:red:blue going into the night would have had a huge chance of giving red the win, seeing as roleblocker-Bulbazak likely had a bead on you at that point. So the only reason to accept a mislynch on a townie at that point would be if you thought it was 3:1:1 at night in that set-up and could resume your Bulbazak case the next day. Risky, yes, but better than getting lynched. And I'd expect a townie under pressure not to accept the mislynch but to be as persuasive as possible on who he saw as surefire scum, not cast about for another townie to throw into the noose.

Following from that, and since we agree that there are no red scum left, it makes sense that blue scum was in a position to suspect that the last blue scum's power wasn't strong enough to allow for another red scum, even a goon, in play. The rest of us couldn't know that.

I seem to recall you pushing for a PV lynch before a CTD lynch that day. In fact I seem to recall this:

So? How is this relevant to my interactions with CTD at all painting me as blue scum? I pushed him. He got lynched. He flipped scum. You didn't end up doing the same thing.

I tend to miss out on a lot of hammers as town for whatever odd twist of fate. See Micro 248 for examples. And yes, it is relevant that you tried to get PV mislynched and then, having pushed for a neighborhood lynch, had to default to CTD for town cred.

I don't know Red Ryu, but it seems quite feasible that he would fake-tunnel you, setting you up to take him down later. As far as thezmon221 goes, I think I've explained quite sufficiently why I found it hard to swallow that he would fake a Universal Back-Up claim as scum given the events of Street Racers in the at-the-time recent past. If I knew he was fake-claiming from the start, why engage with it? I think it was pretty clear that he was going down. Your vote for him:

Fake-tunneling when I'm one of the stronger scum partners seems less feasible than RVS distancing, don't you think? It was HARD TO SWALLOW that thez would fakeclaim universal backup after seeing Mini Librarian coast with a Universal Backup? You didn't find it strange that he was wagonned and claimed Universal Backup right after Street Racers? Sure, you could have bussed him because you thought it was clear he was going down, but you thought that if he claimed it properly and if you pushed the whole "oh he wouldn't fakeclaim this right after Street Racers" shit that maybe you could save him.

Fake-tunneling puts either of you in a better position if the other flips. And RVS distancing...in a 250+ page game, I can't see that as a useful tactic.

TML also got completely busted with the Universal Backup claim. And did I think it was clear he was going down or was I trying to fix his claim?

I never said any of these were definite blue kills aside from Syryana (which is probably the last relevant one, given that blue scum had four members left at that point) Interesting that those are the ones you chose to address. But no comment on Ms Marangal/AK-slot?

but you implied they were likely blue kills and tried to push me for it
I find it interesting how you don't address any of those reasonings! Maybe if you refute those, I might answer your Marangal question.

See above. And the NK scenario I laid out before makes the most sense to me, but I could be wrong, since most of the nights are unclear.

Quite frankly I don't buy that mastin2 would let inside knowledge of an ongoing game he's modding influence anything else. And whatever else their experience may be, they were misreading you here, and given your statements yesterday it makes complete sense that you'd want them dead today before they could rethink things.

No? You don't think this game exists in mastin's mind? You think he just separated it from himself entirely because it's ongoing? Nope. We don't talk about ongoings, but they clearly factor into how we think about games.
You also don't explain why I would posture for a ffullisade kill and try to WIFOM peregrine as opposed to posture for a Peregrine kill and try to WIFOM ffullisade.
You still haven't addressed how it makes sense that I wouldn't view them as a threat for 8 straight game days and then suddenly kill them because I'm afraid they will see right through me in LyLo.

Personally I don't say anything that I can't back up without using a game I'm currently modding.

...ffullisade was town-reading you. Of course they weren't a threat. But they made a good tool to make me look bad.

Yeah, I'm going to coach someone more experienced than me when I'm a lousy scum player when they're fake-claiming. Scum-me would put her head down and hope to ignore the whole thing.

It was an obvious mistake on his part; there was no reason for you to not to correct it.

Don't rescue partner. Especially if you think partner is able to play the hand better.

So all that time and you maintained the position that Baby Spice's posting wasn't ultimately scummy, my interaction with thezmon221 wasn't scummy, but now it's what you go to? Not likely.

I called you town.
And then, with more information, I called you scum?


Sorry, you can't handwave everything away because I called you town once upon a time.

What more information? You called me town after all of Baby Spice's posting and after thezmon221 was lynched, and that's the basis of a lot of your argument. Looks more like PoE without any other options left to me, as you doubled down on me post-NKing Ms Marangal.

[penguin_alien]

Nacho, knowing that you're blue scum I can guess which NKs came from your team, and they do make sense to me. I just don't know 100%, so there's a limit to what I can deduce, especially since I'm not privy to how you regard many of the players in question.

PV, I think I've discussed the CTD wagon and lynch, but for the sake of clarity/accessibility, what it boils down to is that the day before we'd found red scum in Seanald in one of the neighborhoods. It was very likely there was a blue scum in the remaining neighbors, and Desperado and ThAd weren't in the running, so to speak. At that point, with the possibility of a blue scum death eliminating an entire team, there was good reason to want to lynch from the neighbors (you or CTD) and to lynch correctly to keep red scum from leading us down the garden path of clearing out potential conf-townies for them. Nacho came in pushing for your lynch, as I believe he's savvy enough to know that the above was the case. He helped run you up, and when that didn't work, he moved to get town cred for CTD's lynch. He's right that I didn't vote CTD that day; when your wagon ran rampant I figured there were scum on it and wanted to delve into that a bit before figuring out whether it was CTD or if ThAd was playing us. Keep in mind that he had zero confirmed shots at this time; it was an unlikely scum gambit, but I've seen weirder plays. And if ThAd hadn't gotten off a shot/been NK'd, frankly I'd be far less comfortable with him at endgame than you.

Bottom line, I'd played enough games with scum-you to have seen how you played as last scum standing for your team. This wasn't it, and I was suspicious of people who were pushing you, which included Nacho. Unfortunately at the time I thought other people on the wagon were more suspect.

Actually, thinking back on that day, I wonder if the Baezu kill came from Bulbazak/red scum trying to frame me, which makes the shot on ThAd from blue scum and so less telling.

[penguin_alien]

Explain the differences to me. I apparently don't have the PV meta experience that you have.

You also handwaved most of that my last post away; care to revisit it?

Look, I don't go with my gut very often, but when I do it's not bad. See: HP: CoS where I was trying to scum-hunt by looking for what I expected scum to do, but when fferyllt pushed me to reconsider, I did call out the scum team on relatively weaker evidence. A couple other small games recently have had more accurate reads from me when I stopped trying to justify all facets of my reads to myself. I've seen PV as last scum standing for his team in Street Racers where I was rival scum and Open 505 where I was town. I can't explain it very precisely, and I'm not necessarily good at reading PV throughout most of a game, but both times when he was the last member of his team, his posts started to feel more apathetic, less careful. He was different here.

As far as anything you think I didn't address in your last post, you're determined to assign scum motive to my play. I get that; I'm the only viable mislynch target you have left. But at a certain point, things like us going back and forth on whether I was defending/coaching thezmon221 or confused about his claim is no longer productive. You agreeing with me that your scum read on me is PoE and what you saw as town play from me has been retconned into scum play isn't anything that my responding to is going to change.

I know your team was responsible for some of the NKs. Without knowing which ones and without knowing who on your team was pushing the hardest, I can't speculate further. Yes, I think the NKs do point to you, but I have the benefit of knowing that you're scum.

You can put forth whatever justification in-thread you like for the PV lynch versus the switch to CTD. I don't believe it.

@Penguin- It sounds like you are saying that it was pretty much a neighbor lynch that day, and if not me than it would have been CTD? That's what I'm getting from 6505.

Yes, there were other wagons that rose and fell that day. And I think it was probably a good thing to discuss other options, put pressure on people, even at times put our votes elsewhere to demonstrate that we were serious about finding other people scummy. That gave us info going forward.

But at that point the only red scum flip we had was the neighbor-doctor. We didn't know that it was a likely 4-3 scum split; there was a decent chance that lynching a blue scum from the neighborhoods would eliminate a NK. Desperado was obv-town. ThAd wasn't getting lynched, although I was paranoid about him IIRC.

It was down to you or CTD if ThAd wasn't being ridiculous scum. Blind 50% odds of hitting blue scum to possibly eliminate a NK and buy town time to nail red wasn't a deal town could pass up. So yeah, I think that push comes to shove, we were lynching a neighbor that day barring a town PR claiming clear-cut results on scum elsewhere. We had twelve people alive, two unlynchable (Desperado and ThAd), so ten left. That meant that randomly lynching from the pool of players with a 4-4 scum team distro also gave us a 50% shot at hitting scum blindly, but it didn't come with the corresponding 50% chance to eliminate a scum team, nor would it leave someone who was near-conf-town if we chose correctly and give ThAd a clear vig target if we didn't. As it happens our random odds would have been 40% in reality, but there's no way they were better than the 50% odds with the side benefits of said scenario.

My hesitancy was because blue scum had incentive to prolong his survival and work for a mislynch, even if he was last man standing, and red scum had incentive to drag out the 'let the town lynch the potential obv-town neighbors' phase of things to give them more flexibility. I didn't like the way your wagon went, and playing into scums' hands there was worse than encouraging scum-hunting elsewhere.

[penguin_alien]

Yes, well, I know what I know and I know what I don't know, and while what I don't know in games on this site tends to outnumber what I do know, so to speak, that doesn't invalidate what I do know.

[penguin_alien]

PV, questions?

[penguin_alien]

Bulbazak was trying to get me mislynched by calling me blue scum well before Day 7. He would have blocked me on Night 5, not Night 6, if he wanted to test his theory, since post-CTD lynch red scum would have assumed a max of one blue scum remaining. Nacho has tried to claim that Bulbazak wouldn't have expressed his true suspicions in-thread, but there's no reason to think Bulbazak wasn't legitimately hunting blue scum given the nature of multiball. My personal theory is that when a block on me had no effect on the Night Five kills, he couldn't tip his hand and explain why his read on me would change. Better to keep me as a consistent mislynch option.

Night Six, I'm not sure if he blocked Nacho or if scum doubled up on Desperado. Both sides might have been keen to eliminate someone who would have been utterly unlynchable at an endgame, or if Bulbazak could action and kill, as mastin2 I think said at one point, he might have tried blocking Nacho and interfered with the blue kill.

[penguin_alien]

^ I can't tell if you want my input on why I unvoted Nacho or not; if so let me know, otherwise I'll leave you to it. I think I've covered it in this thread earlier, but it might be buried in a wall, not sure.

[penguin_alien]

^ I can't tell if you want my input on why I unvoted Nacho or not; if so let me know, otherwise I'll leave you to it. I think I've covered it in this thread earlier, but it might be buried in a wall, not sure.

I would enjoy you saying it again.

And so if I were in the business of pleasing scum, I would.

[penguin_alien]

Depends what aspects you're not sure of. I would be surprised if Nacho's BP, given that Oversoul was, and none of the town-red-blue PRs have been repeats in the flips.

[penguin_alien]

In those posts he was attacking me because I thought that ThAd's vig shot on him failed due to Seanald protecting him (which at this point I assume was correct; the whole JK theory is bunk), which made him red scum. He couldn't paint me as red after the Seanald lynch, so he tried to say I was blue. He kept it up, even though if we're assuming it was anything more than a read of convenience, and even if not, I'm guessing he blocked me N5. Since it had no effect, but he couldn't explain that, he kept up the bogus suspicion of me because I wouldn't dismiss the 'Seanald protected you' theory.

[penguin_alien]

Either the scum doubled up on targets and he decided to take advantage of it or he blocked blue scum Nacho after blocking me N5 did nothing and figured he'd eke a mislynch out of it. Or he deliberately no-killed to decide who to run up depending on what the day brought, as he could imply that he'd roleblocked anyone.

Bottom line, if he legit thought I was blue scum he would have blocked me N5. There's no way a red scum team of Doctor-RB-Tracker thought they were up against Goon-Goon-Ninja, so even if we town couldn't be sure if CTD's lynch ended the blue team, red scum would have suspected that wasn't the case. Yes, it might have appeared that blue scum was totally eliminated that way, but he's still better off verifying blue scum's identity sooner rather than later.

There's no motive for him to reverse his 'read' when his own roleblock proved him wrong, especially since when Day Six opens with three kills the night before, everyone would assume there's likely one blue scum left; fake blue scum-hunting to eliminate that NK is a perfectly reasonable pastime for red scum who wants to avoid scrutiny.

On the other hand, he had zero motive to find blue scum

accurately

, since eliminating blue scum meant the heat would turn up on red scum.

[penguin_alien]

Look back further; he was calling me scum on Day Five. It got more intense when I concluded that ThAd's vig shot was stopped by a protect one night and a roleblock the next, implying that he'd been protected before Seanald's flip.

If he ever actually thought I was scum, he would have blocked me N5. Red scum had to have figured there was only one blue scum left after CTD died. That meant the last man standing had to do the kill. Blocking him blocked the kill. A successful block paralyses the blue scum killing power. Cephrir and Bulba sure didn't use it on the vig. (Sorry if that's overly 'Dick and Jane' but it's been a rough Monday)

(I'm assuming from this point on that it was a three-man red team; anything else would make you red, and I just can't swallow that)

Once Cephrir died N5, Bulba was solo, but he could hope that town didn't know that. As such, he could paint blue scum hunting as more important to eliminate the NK from that team. But once he accurately helped the town lynch blue scum, they'd turn on him. So, throw other people on the gallows. When we lynched PV he probably didn't know who blue was, since roleblocking me had no effect on the NKs. Whether he figured it out N6 or not, continuing to push me, the professed bleu scum read, gave him more breathing room.

PV, if I were blue scum blocked N6, why would I waver in the slightest from his wagon? My own logic had the roleblocker as red scum, and I was pushing him as red scum from D5 on. Mislynching there would have screwed me completely.

Short on time and not on my PC ATM; if you can't find what I'm referencing here directly or in my discussions with Nacho today I'll pull quotes late tonight.

[penguin_alien]

Reading back through Bulba's ISO shows that his arguments for HD being scum are pretty weak, and he mostly suggests that HD is red scum, best summarized here:

@Bulba-

Run me down a scenario of blue and red remaining, IYO, if there are 2 teams of 3.

Then repeat for 2 teams of 4.

2 teams of 3:

Blue - CTD
Red - One of HD and Baezu. I originally thought that they were scumpartners, but HD's recent attacks on Baezu has started to make me doubt that. If you put a gun to my head, I might pick AK.

2 teams of 4:

Blue - CTD and PA. She appeared to soft defend Thez on d2, and that stuck out for me at the time and made me think that she could possibly be blue. The only other thing that sticks out scum-wise for me is BS's crappy Nacho case d1, which seemed awfully stretched to me. PA has given me more of a town vibe recently, though, so I may be way off here. Outside chance that HD might be blue scum for similar, albeit more subtle, reasons.

Red - One of HD/Baezu, as explained above. After that, I don't know. Maybe AK. Maybe Ffullisade. Maybe Cephrir. We're really getting into the realm of my townreads here, so I can't really give a solid answer. Really, I'd probably see what one of HD/Baezu flipped and reevaluate from there. To be honest, before I'd give another red scum read, I'd need to go through ISOs side by side with Seanald's. There's also still the chance that both HD and Baezu are red scum, which means that I'm not wrong about my townreads, but I doubt it.

To be honest, I'd rather lynch CTD-scum, get the information from the flip and the NK, and then go from there.

Is there a point to these questions? Because they seem strange, and they're making me very uncomfortable.

Yet the next day he's hopping on board the HD wagon even though everyone's trying to lynch blue scum. Given the events of D5, if we can assume anything he said was remotely reflecting his opinions, post-CTD lynch he'd have expected me to be blue scum and blocked me, full stop. So D6 he should know that I'm not blue scum. His own logic had his case on HD as more strongly red scum. But we get:

Vote Human Destroyer

I think PA is likely to be blue scum due to her soft defending Thez d2 and for BS's horribly stretched case on d1. I still don't know what to make of AK. Can somebody explain why PV might be scum?

And after I call him out on it, he does switch his vote. But it's obvious he would have preferred to hold onto my mislynch, since he could ride Nacho's mislynch push on HD otherwise for the day and hold onto me for the next day, as he attempted to do.

With 20/20 hindsight, we know that HD was a scummy mislynch. Bulbazak wouldn't have blocked him, as he knew he wasn't red, and most of his case on him was based on him being red. That leaves him blocking me N5, still to no effect.

Depending on how the NKs went down on N5, he either blocked Nacho N6 or counted on Nacho NKing Desperado and just no-killed to let things look like a kill was blocked and gambled on being able to push a mislynch (likely on me) off of it. Problem for him was that after his D5 talk, it made no sense for him to have blocked me N6 and not N5.

We're at 25 hours to deadline, and I'll be around intermittently if you want to hash this out more. But it's pretty clear to me, just based on Bulbazak flipping Roleblocker, I'm not blue scum or red scum, despite my less-than-stellar town play this game.

[penguin_alien]

I know I'm not scum, therefore the missing kill wasn't a result of Bulbazak blocking me. PV asked why the night results wouldn't indicate that Bulbazak blocked me and in doing so prevented a kill. Given his suspicions, if he blocked me it would have been N5 in all likelihood. It's possible he never blocked me too; I have no way of knowing. My previous post was addressing that question of PV's.

The simple answer is that he blocked you N6, but we don't know; you two could have overlapped on the NK or he could have no-killed.

[penguin_alien]

Look at #5839 quoted above, then go to his ISO and read what follows. And it wasn't a matter of getting rid of people, it was a question of keeping mislynches around.

[penguin_alien]

Blue scum QT: here

(Having just discovered a couple days ago that one could reorder the QT posts to go first to last instead of last to first, I'd already put a post in near the end linking to mastin's flavor and where CTD's lynch meant that the QT changed from a dialogue to me rambling on to myself...)

Thanks for modding, mastin, and AP, and Nexus! I had a lot of fun plotting with fellow blue scum for whatever time we had.

[penguin_alien]

Red scum having day talk = blown mind. Well, I basically got day talk with myself for almost half the game, so I can't complain overmuch.

I'd love to know why PV claimed ThAd shot Cephrir instead of Baezu, if he's inclined to share his thought process.

The dead QTs are great! AngryPidgeon keeps cracking me up, as does Cephrir's characterization of the red scum QT (I've now read most of it, and it looks like y'all got more out of it than what he said, but still) and the selected quotes from the scum QTs for the enjoyment of the dead.

I'm not sure what better night play was to be expected of us early on. Once we hit parity in numbers (or were at a disadvantage as we sometimes thought) after N1, we were better off going for personal threats or PR reads, since pissing off red scum would make it more likely for them to go for us.

I personally don't interpret Bulbazak's statement about taking me down with him as him planning to out me in twilight. Seems more like him pointing out that his flip would put the pressure on me quite heavily, although I don't think we would have been able to work together all the way through to a joint win. I was way too paranoid and would have been trying to NK him the whole time. I interpreted the 'or' in the win con as a provision to make it unnecessary to play out a night where we went in with two VTs and a scum, for example; not that all we had to do was hit 50%.

...definitely would have been a bad idea for mastin to say anything encouraging to me beyond flavor, as it might have given me impressions about the game state. Having said that, reading the support in the dead QT after the fact was heartening.

As far as NKing Ms Marangal, I pretty much watched that whole day not really following the fighting beyond thinking, 'well, that's going to make both of them hard to lynch.' And then when Mala left, I figured the slot was basically unlynchable. I did comb through the ISO of Ms Marangal and AK, but MM didn't say much about how she was reading me, and I felt the unknown was more dangerous than the blatant scum reads I could prepare for. Plus I was trying to stoke the Nacho paranoia and I had no idea MM was wavering as much as she was. I also don't think MM would have rushed to vote anywhere with ffullisade's death.

The plurality rules were good at the start, not so great at the end. I'd suggest cutting them off at a certain players left alive number, as LyLo cutoffs could provide too much mod info. I guess it doesn't matter except at 3p LyLo, but it's really not necessary in the latter half of the game.

Red scum power-wise, the traitor would have been interesting. If people really wanted to up red scum's power with it though, I'd give the traitor one of the PRs and make him non-recruitable. YMMV.