Mini 1451: A Memory of Light (Game Over)

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #10 (isolation #0) » Sat May 11, 2013 5:50 pm

Good Cop Bad Cop confirming in

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #37 (isolation #1) » Sun May 12, 2013 1:01 pm

VOTE: Nero

Because you're like Nero Chaos and goddammit you keep giving me bad ends.

[Sarcasm]
Such a great vote for Selkies. Best plan ever.
[/Sarcasm]

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #131 (isolation #2) » Mon May 13, 2013 7:01 pm

Inital Thoughts:

Not liking Nero's 83 framing post without the gusto to make the vote himself until he gets the backing from MattP. Also see a scum-mentality from 87.

Matt's posts feel town, especially 86 calling out Nero.

But, for the real meat... a Quick Wagon! Lets take a quick look at the highlights, in chronological order.

MattP - Milkshake is Scum. Done.
Nero Cain - Vote. Ok.
Ghostlin - Counters Milk's Logic, Soft-Push without a Vote.
Demon - Talks about Selkies inconsistency, Votes Milkshake.
Selkies - "This, however, is a scum vote."
Sword_of_Omens - Most detailed reason. Most regurgitated reason. L-1 Vote.

The vote sticking out to me by far is Sword_of_Omens. I would love to hear why

both

Miss Destroyer and Milkshake feel that Ghostlin's vote is most scummy out of the six. Sword's detailed reasoning was very borrowed with things others had previously mentioned.

Analysis:

In post 103, sword_of_omens wrote:
Milkshakes’ #75 is pretty bad…
(SEE MATTP #86)
his reasoning for trying to start a Matt wagon seems
pretty opportunistic
…also noted is that he
refrained from voting
MattP.
(SEE GHOSTLIN #88)
Even after he tries to start fueling a wagon by
pushing Nero to vote Matt

(SEE NERO #83)
based on his “worst case we lynch a VT”. He then states that he was just trying to get Nero’s opinion and that he still sees merit in moving towards a MattP lynch… yet still no vote for him? Milkshake, why are you so affraid to back your reasoning with a vote?

Not that agreeing with others' opinions or ideas is scummy, but if that is what you are doing, why not just say so instead of write a paragraph explaining your vote?

Theory:

Sword's vote makes sense as scum, regardless of Milkshake's alignment. As Milk-scum, its a convenient bus-vote placement so early on in the day. As Milk-Town, its an important vote to solidify Milk's position for lynch-candidacy, and if he (SwordofOmens) were lucky a quick-lynch.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Sword_Of_Omens

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #158 (isolation #3) » Tue May 14, 2013 5:15 pm

In post 87, Nero Cain wrote:I'll never "trust" you but I also don't really think you scum so I doesn't see why my agreeing with you is a bad thing.

This premise behind this post lies in the theoretical discussion of scum being always anti-town. Taken into account the context of the post (which I already outlined) the scum-mindset that I see from the post is that Nero comes up with an excuse to why he is sheeping based on a false-premise.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #279 (isolation #4) » Sat May 18, 2013 2:10 am

Prod Dodge.

Probably should have went V/LA, but figured my other head could take over. Pretty sad with two heads, I know. Still need to catch up, substantial post will be up today for sure.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #299 (isolation #5) » Sun May 19, 2013 7:08 am

Still like my SoO vote, waiting on more substance.

In post 181, Amrun wrote:
In post 118, Ghostlin wrote:
In post 105, Nero Cain wrote:This Milkshake wagon is going a bit fast and its making me worry...
The odds of one scum being on that wagon are good. Probably Milk's buddies if she's scum are treating her like a toxic asset hoping for a later deflection off the wagon, and if she does unlikely flip town...well, then at least one or two scum are making that push. SOO's vote seems to be a follow the leader vote--I've got my eyes on him and Nic next for scum.
If milk is town, then Ghostlin is a good bet for scum. Notice the casual cognitive dissonance in this post. Milk is "unlikely" to flip town, but SOO's "follow the leader" vote is suspect? Treating her as town while calling her scum.

This is a complete mis-representation of the quoted post. I don't see any cognitive dissonance. He didn't say anywhere that Milk is unlikely to flip town, he said in the unlikely event that Milk were to flip town, which actually means the opposite of what you are trying to present here Amrun. Care to comment with that in mind?

Also the fact that Ghostlin explained himself and you

still

refused to listen, but instead tried to make Ghost look like the fool, makes me think you mis-repped that post on purpose.

Aside from the poor posts already hit on regarding Milkshake, what I can't shake are her odd logical reasonings. Below are two.

In post 136, milkshake wrote: Again I feel like
the decision to make this post came before the post itself.
In other words, Ghostlin decided he should present some analysis, but only for the sake of presenting analysis, not for the sake of finding scum. If you look at the post, it doesn't help find scum.

How exactly do you determine that a post was decided to be made before the post itself?

In post 196, milkshake wrote:We know you aren't stupid enough to say something about knowing I'm town. Who is that stupid? But the fact that YOU think WE think you are that stupid might indicate that there was actually a possibility of you being that stupid, because the knowledge is actually there in your mind. You're just smart enough to ignore it.

What is this round about theory about Ghostlin being stupid? This post makes no sense to me, not to mention you called him stupid and smart all in one paragraph...

In an attempt to figure out what was going on, I went here to a game of Milk's as town and couldn't find any of these odd posts. Milk, could you link me to one of your recent scum games?

@Demon

What do you think about SOO's lack of commenting on my vote on him?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #312 (isolation #6) » Sun May 19, 2013 6:04 pm

Other head checking in. I'm a total moron that thought he had posted the post he had written, didn't bother to check it did post, and went la-de-da on a weekend of booze and moving houses.

I have one main thing to add here. Why the fuck has nobody noticed this yet?

In post 181, Amrun wrote:Posts that jumped out at me and why.

In post 30, Selkies wrote:VOTE: MattP

Nope not doing theory discussion today

In post 31, Demon wrote:
In post 15, Selkies wrote:I already have my lynchlist. You guys are so transparent.

-o
Selkies elaborate. Also I really want to keep my vote on Matt right now but youir 30 is making it hard for me.

In post 32, Selkies wrote:VOTE: Demon

Better?
This exchange makes me suspicious of Selkies. Selkies is trying to shut down discussion for no valid reason. Plus, like Demon, I am immediately suspicious of them promising a "lynch list" and then not delivering or mentioning it again.

Later on, in reading, Selkies does elaborate a bit on why they didn't like the theory post, but it doesn't put me off from my original gut reaction. His stance, while more clearly stated, still makes little sense.

Post 15 was prior to game's start. Amrun, why are you (and Demon same question, really) using pre-game jokes as a way to try and build a serious case on Selkies?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #422 (isolation #7) » Tue May 21, 2013 6:47 pm

Demon, I will let the other head address your question.

Amrun! I looked over it again, and I was in fact... sniffing glue. Still think your case is/was silly on Ghost for the record. What I really didn't understand was how you got to the conclusion that he was treating Milk as town while saying he wasn't town... until you explained it. You really haven't seen scum sheep?

In post 196, milkshake wrote:that there was actually a possibility of you being that stupid

But that is neither here nor there.

Can anyone else confirm if Amrun normally is in rage-mode all the time as town? If no one answers/knows I will go meta myself, just don't have time at the moment.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #448 (isolation #8) » Wed May 22, 2013 2:43 pm

Other head here again. One of my games ended finally, so I’ll be much more active.

In post 342, Demon wrote:
In post 312, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:Post 15 was prior to game's start. Amrun, why are you (and Demon same question, really) using pre-game jokes as a way to try and build a serious case on Selkies?
Can you point out one instance where I've used the "pre-game joke" as a driving point in Selkies-scum?

Demon, I’m a dumbass who should no longer post while hungover. To clarify, I meant to ask you why you brought that post up, not why you were using it to push a case. I did you wrong there and I apologize for that. Your reply seems town-ish, so that’s a win after all from my stupid question.

I’m currently using my newfound time to do some meta reads of Beli and Milk, if nothing else, I read fast, so Expect some findings/results/etc soon.
Also for the record, milk, second request for you to link us some of your past games as scum/town. If you refuse, I’ll have to go through your entire posting history, and that doesn’t really help anyone, now does it?
Beli I don’t have a solid read on yet, other head might, will confer, but I’d like to meta-read him as well.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #466 (isolation #9) » Thu May 23, 2013 5:30 pm

@MOD V/LA until Monday; both heads are moving houses, what are the odds, heh

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #514 (isolation #10) » Mon May 27, 2013 3:25 pm

Yo. House move over, time to share some work of mine.

No wonder Milk answered our request while omitting his more modern scum game. It's incriminating as shit.

Mini 881, milk as scum, we see a whole bunch of theory discussion day one. Same thing going all the way back to his first newbie game as scum, newbie 215.

I also did a read-through of Milk as town in several of his other games, and the level of theory discussion is NOWHERE near this game/Mini 881/Newbie 215

See ISO #12 and #13 (from mini 881) for a good set of examples:
#12:

"
I thought DGB's reads on MordyS, Psychologic, etc. were alot stronger than her Vaya read. Not that I have anything against it, a read is pretty much just a read. But my opinion is: I've never thought that posting frequency could be used as a viable arguement on this site, since it depends entirely on non-mafia-related mood and MeatWorld (tm) happenings. (Maybe that's narrow minded but I'm sticking to it.)

MordyS's last couple posts seemed like she was just trying to find something to argue about (I don't know if that's scummy or not), and (here I go turning on a dime) Psychologic still hasn't posted again.
"

#13

Regarding the buddying topic: I actually disagree with the implication of the section of the wiki that MordyS quoted,

Buddying up is a tactic, usually used by members of the Mafia, to try to make yourself look less threatening. Typically the Mafia member will try to be friendly in some way, either outright or, more often, subtly. If the Mafia member is ever lynched at some point, and other players have noticed the buddying, it tends to throw suspicion on the person the Mafia was being friendly towards, thereby causing confusion even after the Mafioso's death.

Being "friendly" with your vote and siding uneccessarily in important arguements, yes, I suppose can see mafia doing. But just being friendly, which I believe is what people were doing (heaven forbid ... with some possible debatability regarding votes in the RVS), well, if that's a scum tell here I'm quitting!

This is partially also based on the assumption that hopping on early bandwagons just for the heck of it if they agree with the reason, however small, is a perfectly pro-town thing to do, though... I know MordyS doesn't like the way people followed DGB onto the Vaya wagon, but at this stage of the wagon, this early in the game, I think it's totally fine.

So uh. Hi scum.

VOTE: Milk

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #533 (isolation #11) » Tue May 28, 2013 1:57 pm

I still would like to see a SoO lynch, other-head wants a milk-lynch, I see scum in both: happy with either.

In post 525, milkshake wrote:Gah, I was wrong about Belisarius. I'm pretty sure I was. Look at him, he's town. I don't know how I thought he was scum.

This is an unsubstantiated claim and could be seen as distancing. Look at what? His... appearance? Posts? Which part of his posts? How

did

you think he was scum?

Your Voting Reason Recap:

Crusing
Taking Pot Shots from Sideline
Unjustified Ghostlin Vote

Which one of these reasons did Beli prove incorrect, or which one did you realize was incorrect and when?

It couldn't have just been coincidence that your flip on Beli came one post after this...

In post 524, Selkies wrote:
In post 523, Belisarius wrote:
In post 520, ThAdmiral wrote:@ beli: it's pretty much you versus milk for top lynch spot now. You might as well jump on milk now, for self preservation reasons if nothing else.
I'm not voting Milk because I do not want him (her? I don't know what pronoun to use) dead at this time. My vote goes on my top scumread, and self-preservation be hanged.
I like this reply a lot.

UNVOTE: beli

In post 498, milkshake wrote:I still don't think flip-flopping, being wishy washy, or inconsistent or whatever you call it makes you scum.

I mean, that's why people usually vote for me... for example, this game. And I'm not scum.

A Milkshake Kinda Question:

If you have this theory that something isn't scummy that others often consider scummy, and you turn out to be scum, would you then do that thing you don't consider scummy and then post that you don't think its scummy because you are doing said scummy thing as someone who isn't scum?

In post 525, milkshake wrote:GoodCop_BadCop and ThAdmiral are trying desperately to push my wagon. A town wagon. But do they know it is a town wagon? That is the question.

Far from desperate...

Show me in this town game of yours where is all this theory/odd talk that you say happens all of the time. I couldn't find it.

Also...

If this is true:

In post 456, milkshake wrote:Slighty more sure about Belis but you,
GoodCop_BadCop, and Belis are my scum reads right now.
We're not talking 100% certainty of course but when are we ever.

In post 525, milkshake wrote:Gah, I was wrong about Belisarius. I'm pretty sure I was. Look at him, he's town. I don't know how I thought he was scum.

UNVOTE: Belisarius

GoodCop_BadCop and ThAdmiral are trying desperately to push my wagon. A town wagon. But do they know it is a town wagon? That is the question.

Why just an unvote and not a vote on your other scum-read? I don't think you are being completely true MilkShake.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #576 (isolation #12) » Thu May 30, 2013 9:10 am

"Other Head" is usually me (Cabd)

We can start signing our posts if it helps.

I'm pretty sure hawk and I are in complete harmony here that Milk or SOO needs to go, we just disagree on which. I like Milk for the meta case I brought against him and his weak response to it, Hawkie finds SOO scum more likely. I'll let him cover his reasoning, but I see merit in it as well.

~C

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #586 (isolation #13) » Thu May 30, 2013 3:40 pm

Its time to turn the tide.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Sword_Of_Omens

In post 582, Amrun wrote:Game-wise, I don't see anything I am particularly compelled to write about, except that sword of omens is painfully town. He's towwwwwwwwwwwn. TOWN.

Humm... you

almost

convinced me.

How does one go from

In post 429, Amrun wrote: I have a town read on milkshake. Not TOWNTOWNTOWN, but town.
Sword I am much closer to null
, but if forced at gunpoint to pick, I'd say leaning town.

To

In post 582, Amrun wrote:
sword of omens is painfully town.
He's towwwwwwwwwwwn. TOWN.

Do share your font of wisdom, as I see none of what you see.

Selkies, my posts should be obvious, as I am the more OCD head and you will notice nice formatting quirks in my posts that lack in the other head's posts. I will sign mine as

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #589 (isolation #14) » Thu May 30, 2013 4:26 pm

Why are you pushing a counter wagon to take momentum from your primary scum read? Has your read on sword changed since your big reads post?

~C

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #591 (isolation #15) » Thu May 30, 2013 4:34 pm

Can you explain your Nero case? What has changed since your early read?

Your reads list said:

In post 566, Selkies wrote:Nero Cain (he recovered a little from our early scum read, but has mostly faded into the woodwork lately)

What exactly did you mean by fading into the woodwork?

~C

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #612 (isolation #16) » Fri May 31, 2013 5:43 am

In post 599, Ms Marangal wrote:Now I'm def's not going to vote Thad, I mean who the hell puts down a vote on someone who soft's a PR?

So at first I thought this was sarcasm...

In post 602, Ms Marangal wrote:And now we have this guy Fishing FFS -_-

He can defs soft claim and, if it's true he will likely be killed tonight anyway.

VOTE: Milk

there is no way you can be town

Then I get this!

Am I the only one that sees this as an opportunistic push?

Extremely poor logic

: Someone who truthfully soft-claims PR gets night-killed. Fact is soft-claiming is scummy. Where is the town-motivation in soft-claiming? There isn't. It doesn't save you, and only really serves as a dare.

In post 597, ThAdmiral wrote:Well I could defend myself, or I could just tell you that I'm a power role.

Yes, that is a soft claim, and no I won't be revealing any more than I have.

This post is just lazy. Read: Thad doesn't care about being lynched.

Why aren't we lynching SoO?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #613 (isolation #17) » Fri May 31, 2013 5:44 am

^ ~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #678 (isolation #18) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 6:47 pm

Mara

- If I have something to ask... I will ask. 612 was an observation of your opportunistic vote for Milk. Although if you must... this question never got answered by anyone, so you can start there. I am fearless.

In post 612, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:Where is the town-motivation in soft-claiming?

My suspicion of SoO started with his first post, not necessarily the post itself, but his vote that was placed and I could never really shake it, which is why I have been coming back to him.

If he isn't worried about putting a vote down to get Milk to L-1 at the beginning of the game, why does he unvote in a post and then leave it hanging for another 102 posts before being called out on this very thing before getting on to finish and

then

vote? I guess I just can't understand writing a post and then posting it in the thread without having finished it and then waiting until his next big post to explain why he flaked which could have happened in #383, or #459.

In a nut-shell, he has been in and out. Seems like he comes in to stir the pot, and then chills out to see the effect of his waves. If you look at all of his large posts they are spread out over a lengthy period.

Stirs in #380, Next Big Post #482. Disappears again until #547. And again to #614.

Top that all off with me being curious as to whether my theory is spot on or way off... which honestly could wait till end-game, but I guess my pride just blinds me a bit.

Despite going V/LA, he has been more active and engaged since he made the post which I am not sure what to make of yet...

What I REALLY don't get are people saying SOO is town without any reasoning. First Amrun, then Belisarius, and now Selkes. If he is really town, I need help seeing it because I am having a hard time here.

Selkes

! Explain. Also Explain why you went through ISO's and left out SOO when you made a post mentioning players you weren't going to ISO but didn't mention him.

In post 676, Nero Cain wrote:I just want Amrum to answer my question.

^This. She is dodging and it's bad.

Willing to Lynch: Mara or Milk as a compromise.

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #680 (isolation #19) » Sat Jun 01, 2013 7:02 pm

Bad cop/C checking in. GC just went offline and asleep; it's 2am his time. Working on some other stuff, will have it shortly.

(aside, selkies, you're in the same time zone as me looks like, GMT -8)

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #719 (isolation #20) » Sun Jun 02, 2013 12:09 pm

Sorry hawkie, but I'm stealing my vote back. In advance, I'm not sure of Milk's gender since it is not listed, I've defaulted to male.

Milk needs to go, and it saddens me some of you cannot see that.

Post 514, I laid out exactly why this is not his town game. His only response to it was "okay" and to call us scummy for pushing the case against him. And then leaving himself a backdoor "out" in case that backfired by adding "Or trying to contribute" Town doesn't leave the back door wide open. Milk-scum does.

Check out post 522 where he again pushes me as scummy and leaves.... yet another back door! Especially after he calls the wagon on him 66% scum! There's a serious level of cognitive dissonance going on here.

Post 525 yet another "GCBC is scum, but maybe they aren't" post, and also sheeps Selkies. At this point it is apparent he has latched onto selkies like a newborn to his mother's bosom.

As hawkie noted in our 533; milkshake was afraid to vote for us even though he had us down as scum. Leaving himself to push us as scum without voting, and then giving him room to hop on later.

Lastly, we see another mindless brown-nose job in post 712.

He's ignoring posts he can't answer, he's trying to wiggle out of his lynch by floating other wagons without pushing them himself, and he's even desperate enough to try and sell no lynch.

VOTE: Milk

That's L-1, where Milk needs to be.

Regarding the marangal case, having played with her before when she was town, she's giving off the same vibes (minus her IC hat) as before. Now, you all have played with her a lot more so you might be able to correct me, but I've read a game or two of hers as scum and they seem... different than her play here. I think that the time she was tied up waiting for HD threw her off a bit, and it made it hard to grab reads initially as a result.

~BC (aka C)

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #721 (isolation #21) » Sun Jun 02, 2013 12:38 pm

In post 720, Selkies wrote:
In post 719, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:I'm stealing my vote back

Now that orcinus is back and I have someone to confab with, I'm taking advantage of it.

And since I see you're here, would you mind explaining your own findings as you said you would?

In post 516, Selkies wrote:@GCBC, I'll have a look at the game you found. Thanks for the heads up.

- fferyllt

Also I'm sticking with signing my posts as GC from now on.
~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #722 (isolation #22) » Sun Jun 02, 2013 1:02 pm

Errr... That was supposed to be "Also, I'm signing my posts as BC from now on"

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #731 (isolation #23) » Sun Jun 02, 2013 7:30 pm

In post 730, milkshake wrote:My bad, I forgot that saying something positive is the biggest scum tell ever in this meta.

I'm Siuan Sanche. I have passive ability pertaining to one power that
affects my other abilities
. But
I don't have any other abilities
.

Ms Marangal is scum, I am not.

Are you trolling me right now?

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #784 (isolation #24) » Mon Jun 03, 2013 7:30 am

Either I missed an unvote or that was hammer.

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #853 (isolation #25) » Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:48 pm

Let’s talk Thad here, folks.

Buddies the hell out ghost day one.

Claims way frigging early, claiming generic power role.

Tries to justify why he wasn’t night killed!

Scumslip! Town never ever ever EVER does this.

The roleclaim is so smelly the local homeowner’s association wants to evict, but the NK justification is worse. Seriously. And Commuter AND self-watcher? What even?

VOTE: Thad

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #904 (isolation #26) » Sat Jun 08, 2013 6:48 pm

Just a few additional comments on top of what the other head covered...

In post 868, sword_of_omens wrote:heheh...ThAd's not scum...

Vote: Amrun

Pretty sure he is scum actually... care to add any backing to your claim?

Before I touch on your "findings"

Iecerint

, I would like to ask you a question... where were you before the Meet that caused your unintentional hammer? I am noticing a 180 degree shift in play-style coming from you.

To quickly address your points:

If you recall SOO during most of the day (and you should) he kinda wasn't around much, so after getting my scum-read and voting for him I had the option of either sitting on my hands waiting for him to show up so I could get a better read on him, or make use of my time and scum-hunt elsewhere. It's not exactly what I would call a disconnect.

I don't really understand the connection you have made between Cain and myself, but if you say its there...

So here is what I don't get...

In post 823, Iecerint wrote:I don't have as much of a read on players I didn't directly interact with much yesterday because
my Balto activity
was pretty limited to ctrl+f iec-ing every other day or so.

In post 832, Iecerint wrote: I don't have a strong memory of the role of every player in every event because I
only had like 10 minutes with the game
every few days, hence the need for a reread.

In post 825, Iecerint wrote: I am much more comfortable with my town reads than any scum reads this game so far. I will need to reread D1 to convert my "X event was weird"
memories into reads post-flip.

You have two stated reasons for doing a re-read. One being that you were occupied with Balto. The second being that you needed to re-evaluate after seeing role-flips. Both of which are confusing to me considering that Balto began around post #582ish and your re-read looks to have started from post #31? If its because you are doing a re-eval post role-flip... why does it look like your wagon-analysis on milk is more of an after-thought than the main point of your re-read?

None of your re-read conclusions seem to have any connection to the post-flips of Matt, Milk, and Ghost. For example, all of your stated reasons that you find me scummy have to do with posts made with people currently living, or actions taken in general. While you did have Nero "the" scum on the initial wagon, he is missing from your second wagon analysis without any mention of the hop-off, how or why it could be scum-motivated. Also your ThAd "maybe" scum read was the only one that could be remotely tied to post-flip information with the Milk-lynch-cheerleading but was rather weak.

IIRC, you had SOO as scum for most of Day 1, and now he is in your town-pile. What made you change your mind?

I should also point out that my read on SOO has shifted to more town due to Selkes' recommendation to look at SOO's town game. Most of what I found to be scummy with his play, I saw in the meta of him there. What I couldn't find was any game that he played in as scum on the site..., but I am now leaning toward more town.

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #936 (isolation #27) » Sun Jun 09, 2013 3:14 pm

In post 905, Iecerint wrote:Nero stuck out from the wagon given the flips so far, and your calling him out at length in the next post and subsequently voting SoO solidified the sketchiness feelings.

What is your read on Nero?

Do you frequently vote your weaker scum-read when you have a better lead?

My Nero read continues to be probable scum. Not really sure where he is going with the SK thing today... I would much rather lynch scum personally if we had a choice.

Currently believe Mara's claim... however I can see where Selkes is coming from with the dissonance regarding the walking stuff.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #937 (isolation #28) » Sun Jun 09, 2013 3:22 pm

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #941 (isolation #29) » Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:12 pm

In post 940, Amrun wrote:No. It's very rare to see a theme game with source material that DOESN'T do this for fakeclaims. On this site,
we don't like clearing or catching people with flavor.
We like it to be play-related.

In post 914, Amrun wrote: ThAd, though,
claim your ability "name,"
because I have one as well.

Umm... are you really saying you don't like to clear people on flavor and then asking ThAd to flavor claim?

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #954 (isolation #30) » Sun Jun 09, 2013 5:30 pm

All quotes here are of Thad's two most recent posts, formatting sucks, I'm sorry.

Matrim Cauthon. My commute power is "foxhead medallion". I was told it grew cold against my chest last night, which is how I know I was targeted by at least one one power ability. I'm sure the person who targeted me knows I am telling the truth.

Uh.... Would any of our other claimed commuters like to attest that they have an item? I know others touched on this, but having a commuter that knows when they WOULD have been hit by a role? That's more broken than Shadow Tag Chandelure in Pokemon Battles. (Which is very broken for the record)

Now you are thinking along the right lines.

Are you claiming village idiot here?

wanna bet $5?
Anyway ghost was obv town, if no one else saw that it ain't my fault.

No, because betting is against the rules. I'll have the satisfaction of your scumflip, thank you very much.
And please go back and quote posts that made ghostlin obvtown.

I don't know why he chose to call me modified commuter and not something else like "self-protecting medallion guy", but that is between you and cephrir.

I know why! It's because you made shit up.

But the biggest issue I have is this. In 866 you say "there's more to the role as well" but then in 906 you say you planned on claiming first thing today. So which is it?

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #997 (isolation #31) » Tue Jun 11, 2013 4:06 pm

In post 980, ThAdmiral wrote:I never said I planned on full-claiming.
I'm not going to respond to the rest of your post btw - most if it was just "you're scum" "no I'm not" stuff anyway, so what's the point of keeping that going.

Deflecting scum confirmed. I specifically asked Thad to quote which posts of ghostlin's made him obvtown, and his response is "what's the point of it" essentially? He's caught scum and flailing around.

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1025 (isolation #32) » Thu Jun 13, 2013 9:12 am

In post 1013, Selkies wrote:BC what are your current thoughts about Iece?

- f

I can start pulling more detailed meta on IECE; but for now, it appears to me that he’s struggling to keep up and his absence during the bulk of day one has left him at an impasse. It does concern me he took this long to vote, but from my skim of his past games that seems to be a fairly common thing for him regardless of alignment. He's picking up steam now, and I'd like to observe a while longer. The other head is a bit more suspicious than I am of him currently.

Regarding Amrun and Nero, gonna sort out this mess. Can anyone point out Nero’s “crumbs” for me, because I don’t really see them?

Thad is still scum though. Nero/Thad might be a thing and I’ll go back and compare some ISOs.

P-edit: Amrun, the second kill smells more like a SK IMO. The unique way of killing feels wrong for another scum group. But I might be buying too much into the flavor.

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Thu Jun 13, 2013 10:08 am

In post 1035, Selkies wrote:
In post 1025, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:
In post 1013, Selkies wrote:BC what are your current thoughts about Iece?

- f
I can start pulling more detailed meta on IECE; but for now, it appears to me that he’s struggling to keep up and his absence during the bulk of day one has left him at an impasse. It does concern me he took this long to vote, but from my skim of his past games that seems to be a fairly common thing for him regardless of alignment. He's picking up steam now, and I'd like to observe a while longer. The other head is a bit more suspicious than I am of him currently.

Regarding Amrun and Nero, gonna sort out this mess. Can anyone point out Nero’s “crumbs” for me, because I don’t really see them?

Thad is still scum though. Nero/Thad might be a thing and I’ll go back and compare some ISOs.

P-edit: Amrun, the second kill smells more like a SK IMO. The unique way of killing feels wrong for another scum group. But I might be buying too much into the flavor.

~BC
Does it concern you that orcinus and I are taking even longer to vote?

No. Should it? You’ve stated a few times that you’re waiting on Orci to get back before voting. Iece had no such reasons as far as I can tell.

Thoughts on the current amrun/nero situation?

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1041 (isolation #34) » Thu Jun 13, 2013 5:48 pm

Why in the world do we have four equal competing wagons? This does not make any sense to me. There is a large amount of indecision and split views that it is making it difficult for me to see trends in voting pattern with regard to who is pushing and who is countering a push.

Before post #1018,

ThAd

and

Mara

were the lead wagons. Iecerint added Amrun to the list with his vote, and Mara added Demon to the list with her vote.

If scum is trying to avoid pushing a mis-lynch at this stage of the game in order to not stick out (assuming at least one of ThAd or Mara is town), Iecerint fits into that category nicely with his vote to add the Amrun wagon to the table. Also contrary to my other head, I DO find Selkes indecision with scum-reads quite scummy who could also be doing the same thing of trying to lay low. While we are on the topic of Iecerint and my other head and voting hesitation, a quick meta-hunt of Iecerint shows me that his hesitance to vote is his scum-game while he is much less so as town-Iecerint.

Recent-Town Game: DarkSouls Mafia
Recent-Scum Game: Gaymafia II

We (the heads) can't come to an agreement on Iecerint.

I currently believe Mara's claim, but fail to understand one thing...

Mara, would a town commuter, dreamwalkers, and a doctor all exist in our mini-game setup and still be balanced?

Selkes, you should lay down your vote so I can get a better read on you.

SOO, if you can't get any steam for a Beli lynch, who is your other scum-read?

Iecerint, you claim that Amrun's comment of "I think I know why he thinks this" factors into your scum-read/vote on him. Why didn't that comment (which comes before your #900 in which you state your top three suspects (Myself, Thad, and Nero)) factor into your scum-read-list at that time, but does now?

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Sat Jun 15, 2013 11:09 am

In post 1045, Selkies wrote:
Yeah these

ThAd - role claim is of the "one of these is not like the others" form. Has been coasting even when under suspicion.
SoO - Day 1 devoted to Ghostlin. Progression on MsM day 1 looks bad, and then it's dropped day 2.
GCBC - Could be hydra-related, but there's contradiction and more importantly there's a lack of depth somehow in the analyses. The SoO focus seemed kind of useless and I am now wondering if there was some scum theater involved in that,

And with that, we are going to VOTE: SoO

Is this a vote to just troll me?

The SoO focus seemed kind of useless, but imm'a VOTE SoO...

Why not vote for ThAd? Someone who you think is scum, and is actually a viable option? Why split the vote more?

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1091 (isolation #36) » Sat Jun 15, 2013 1:04 pm

Oh hi!

In post 1088, Selkies wrote: Orcinus and I not getting as much of a town-vibe as we'd like from your partner, GC, which is why you guys have slid into our scum pile.

Did you mean my partner BC?

If not... this looks like a false read to me considering you can't even tell us apart WITH sigs.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1092 (isolation #37) » Sat Jun 15, 2013 1:04 pm

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1098 (isolation #38) » Sun Jun 16, 2013 5:09 pm

In post 1097, Demon wrote:Need a flip to turn my game on guys.

We already have flips. If you were bothering to follow the thread at all you'd notice that... Why aren't you able to scumhunt with the rest of us?

In post 0, Cephrir wrote:
Embracing the Dark (3/13)

milkshake, Siuan Sanche, Town Channeler, lynched Day 1.

MattP, Birgitte Silverbow, Town Vanilla, has been killed Night 1.

Ghostlin, Aviendha, Town Channeler Dreamwalker, has vanished Night 1.

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1115 (isolation #39) » Tue Jun 18, 2013 7:19 am

So upon an ISO read of him, I’m for sure willing to lynch demon today. At this point, his lurking feels like an attempt to let the thad/mara fight keep him free from more scrutiny.

Looking back at some major plays he made during day one, finding stuff I missed or felt needed to be re-iterated:

His interaction with Selkies in 30/31 feels…. Forced. As does 35. 35 he states that to him, Matt appears to be trying to read ghost, which is a pro-town thing. But then in 53 he states Selkies and Matt are both scumreads. The flip from scummy to town to scummy was never explained, and his posts don’t seem to be in the RVS mindset.

Jumping ahead past lots of one-liners with little content, we get to 531, with the “vig this shit” line. This didn’t get noticed much at all until MsM pointed it out much later, but upon re-reading it feels icky, like a green hiccup taste. Him playing it off as a frustration joke in 741 feels icky too.
669, self-meta is bad, excplaining one’s own scum-meta as a response to why they’re not scum is worse.

989 is a discredit of Thad’s case about wagon analysis instead of actually responding to it
I’ve already covered 1097, but he’s got three flips to go off of, and is making excuses for not actively scumhunting.

~BC

PS: (Selkies you can't get every read right but it’s okay. More than willing to play the sorting game though. What did you have in mind?)

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1119 (isolation #40) » Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:52 am

Amrun, Have you read my recent posts? I’ve been VERY clear that Thad is scum.
By process of Thad being Scum, I find Mara to be town. I know you’re very much thinking she’s scum right now, but I don't think she is. Like I said before, this feels like the town-mara I played with in my newbie game.

Selkies, the other head may feel otherwise, but yes. For both of them to be town with their claimed roles, and with the risk of doing some setup speculation here, scum would have to either have a strongman kill ability, a roleblocker that hits before the ability to commute, or both. I certainly wouldn’t devise a setup like that, though. The sheer amount of claimed commuters personally makes me doubt the odd one out. Hence my current vote.

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1135 (isolation #41) » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:15 pm

We're at a conflict of reads between ThAd and Demon ATM...

In post 1131, ThAdmiral wrote:Would you consider a compromise? I feel that
if demon flips scum mara looks really good
, if
he flips town I would probably be willing to vote mara tomorrow
.

Care to walk me through your logic here ThAd?

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1154 (isolation #42) » Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:58 pm

Time Check

: A little over 24hours.

Lynch Progress

: Tied Lead Wagons at L-3.

I am super confused at the apathy in this game. My experience tells me scum should be pushing for a mislynch and town should be pushing for a scum lynch... but I am seeing neither at this point. The only explanation I can come up with is one of ThAd or Mara is definitely scum and scum is avoiding pushing the counter lynch to not get caught up in wagon analysis. My gut further confirms that ThAd is scum with Selkies already voicing the compromise of ThAd. This would tentatively put the ThAd wagon in the lead, and with no one strongly pushing a counter with a vote OR strongly jumping on the lead wagon with a vote, it makes sense that ThAd is scum.

ThAd's disappearance at deadline is disappointing, I really wanted clarification on what he was talking about, but without it I can only come to my own conclusions.

In post 1131, ThAdmiral wrote: Would you consider a compromise? I feel that if demon flips scum mara looks really good, if he flips town I would probably be willing to vote mara tomorrow.

Assuming that Thad and Mara aren't scum-together (which I find unlikely considering the interactions to this point), and assuming Demon is actually town, lynching Demon would setup another mislynch (in likely MYLO I might add) in Mara. I just don't see the connection he is drawing here, which in turn looks like a setup to me.

Thad is scum. In the event that Thad flips town, I am more than willing to lynch Mara as her claim doesn't make sense with the information that we have gotten from Thad.

Nero and Selkies, you both need to make your choice.

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1166 (isolation #43) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:15 am

Selkies, there’s a reason I’ve been on Thad the entire day. My role gives me reason to not believe his claim. I really didn’t want to reveal anything, but that’s how it is. His “and something else” could clarify it, or make it even more damning, I dunno.

You can ask GC about his SOO case, because in case you’ve forgotten, I wasn’t all for it.

I did meta-dive Iece, but his play here has been seen in both his town game and his scum game. Would you like to discuss it?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1168 (isolation #44) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:22 am

In post 1166, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:Selkies, there’s a reason I’ve been on Thad the entire day. My role gives me reason to not believe his claim. I really didn’t want to reveal anything, but that’s how it is. His “and something else” could clarify it, or make it even more damning, I dunno.

You can ask GC about his SOO case, because in case you’ve forgotten, I wasn’t all for it.

I did meta-dive Iece, but his play here has been seen in both his town game and his scum game. Would you like to discuss it?

Derp, forgot to sign.

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1169 (isolation #45) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:26 am

In post 1167, Selkies wrote:hi, this is the 'bad cop' of selkies

I have a way of reading hydras where I only focus on the head that I have meta with/on, and that in this case is you, Cabd.

I don't blame you for tunneling thad today. I personally don't think that tunneling is scummy. But your recalcitrance to proactively interact with other people is.

Talk to me about that.

Hi orci. Let's talk, then. I had to google the word recalcitrant, and I don't think that's what you meant, did you?

Anyways, I'm gonna assume you meant "reluctant" there, and that's just how this hydra has been set up I guess. GC does most of the speaking, while I do the heavy lifting in the backgorund. It's kinda like how ffery likes to sit back and research in some of her hydrae while the other head does all the work and gets supplied her results. Hawkie/GC actually has a lot more experience in the game than I do.

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1171 (isolation #46) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:41 am

In post 1170, Selkies wrote:11:32 ew
11:33 i'm never typing a game post while watching game of thrones ever again

in other news

what if i accuse you of not having the town-minded will to win that you exhibit in most of your other games

(What, finally got to the red wedding or something? If you've read the books, it even gets worse soon enough, heh)

I’d ask you “what other games” because I only recall playing ongoing games with you. I don’t like drawing a PR because then I worry about being NK’d more, and have to play more cautiously. If you’re talking about the game we’ve both flipped in, note I was VT. I don’t recall ever playing a game with you where I wasn’t VT.
We’re skirting the ongoing games rule, though. I really don’t want to get modkilled over this, so yeah.

Any reason we're playing the what if game?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1175 (isolation #47) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:56 am

In post 1172, Selkies wrote:Why are you drawing attention to a small speech habit in the manner in which I ask my questions

Do you have something you would like to say

And what is your second scum read, after thAd

The something I would like to say is “English isn’t your first/primary language is it?” but eh.

Demon. I know you’ve said in the past that demon is reading town to you but I really don’t see it.

In post 1173, Selkies wrote:And fery and I both have more experience with you than the other head and I believe she's played with you substantially

and I'm pretty sure you just dodged that question with a "lol shit man you don't know me/haven't played with me enough" which is scummy as all hell

Fery has played with me the exact same number of games as you have. So I’m not sure where you got that idea.

I'm not seeing how I "dodged" that question but by all means, you can ask for clarity on it. You're wrong, because I still want to win. If the way I've chosen to play this hydra makes me look scummy, so be it. This is my first shot at playing a hydra and I'm really restraining myself because I've seen what a mess a hydra that can't keep its shit togetehr does to threads.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1177 (isolation #48) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:02 am

In post 1174, Selkies wrote:oh yeah and

11:51 "I am playing differently because I am a PR and I worry about being NK'd more"
11:51 "I am now going to softclaim PR while I'm at it for virtually no effect"

Ummm, okay? Are these timestamps your time or something?

Either way, I'd been hoping to avoid having to reveal anything. I don't get this player base's "Oh I'm playing so bad I can't be scum" logic, and to be honest it urts my brain.

I'm going to work now, orci. I'll be back in like... 2 or 3 hours, I hope you'll still be awake by then yeah? If not I guess I can talk to ffery.

P-edit: I PR claimed because my role makes me pretty darn sure Thad is scum, and I don't want a scum lynch to fall apart in the last 24 hours.

What's there to interact with, Demon's idea of a response is to just toss an insult and go back to lurking.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1186 (isolation #49) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:26 am

Back from the “quaint” library I was servicing. You still here to talk, selkies?

In post 1178, Selkies wrote:Also we do not think you are reacting appropriately to the bad situation that town is in right now

While mislynching day one was indeed bad, I fail to see how that makes it a bad situation we’re in. We’re going to lynch scum in Thad today.

In post 1179, Selkies wrote:we might be disagreeing on that issue

Well you’re both welcome to talk to me about it.

In post 1180, Selkies wrote:
In post 1166, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:Selkies, there’s a reason I’ve been on Thad the entire day. My role gives me reason to not believe his claim. I really didn’t want to reveal anything, but that’s how it is. His “and something else” could clarify it, or make it even more damning, I dunno.

You can ask GC about his SOO case, because in case you’ve forgotten, I wasn’t all for it.

I did meta-dive Iece, but his play here has been seen in both his town game and his scum game. Would you like to discuss it?
Yeah, you were the one on milkshake. And not alone in that.

In post 1175, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:I'm not seeing how I "dodged" that question but by all means, you can ask for clarity on it. You're wrong, because I still want to win. If the way I've chosen to play this hydra makes me look scummy, so be it. This is my first shot at playing a hydra and I'm really restraining myself because I've seen what a mess a hydra that can't keep its shit togetehr does to threads.
Let's not talk about Squared. :/

What about milkshake? Milkshake was playing like scum, and it surprised the hell out of me to see her(?) flip town.

Also I thought you might pick up on the squred reference.

In post 1181, Selkies wrote:
In post 1178, Selkies wrote:Also we do not think you are reacting appropriately to the bad situation that town is in right now
^^ that was orcinus. From my perspective, if what you say, that your role makes you sure that ThAd is lyning, then working to get him lynched is the pro-town thing to do. What we're having trouble with is your tone - yours, not so much GC's. And I can see where being unexpectedly called out when the front-guy is not around would be disconcerting. But, it happens and as part of a hydra you have to roll with it.

Yeah, it feels weird. But it’s okay. I can switch it up to chatting with you like this.

In post 1181, Selkies wrote: GC said something about lynching MsM next if ThAd turns out to be town. This worries me given that you're saying you have reason to feel sure ThAd is scum.

Our specific role interacts with the game state such that it’s impossible in our eyes for the setup to make sense with both a pseudo self-watching commuter and a dreamwalking doctor to make sense. Thad’s makes a lot less sense than Mara’s, hence the vote and his insistence, however, in the case of thad flipping town, our role all but 100% confirms mara is scum. I’d rather not fullclaim but I will if I have to. There’s a good reason I’m not suspicious of amrun, too. Her claim makes perfect sense given my rolecard.

Actually when he gets back he’s probably gonna be pissed that I even mentioned our role.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1189 (isolation #50) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 9:26 am

You are much more sanguine about today's lynch than I am.

Well, to be fair, I have a role card that allows me to be pretty damn confident.

But how about your iece meta?

Did you want to talk about that now? Orci didn’t seem to care.

Squared was the most obvious, but not the only possible reference. :/

:~) Squared isn’t alone in that achievement by any means though.

Ok. This makes a little more sense of that insistence that if one isn't scum the other must be. But, can you see why it looked like setting up lynches in the same post where setting up lynches was described as scummy?

Yeah, if I step back not knowing what I know, I can see how you’d see it that way.

I need to look back through your convo with orcinus. I don't remember who your next pick for scum was. How many are in your scumpile right now?

Two. Thad and Demon. Pretty sure games of 13 players are either 10/3 or 10/2/1 so I guess the night will sort that all out. I'm not sure who the third one might be yet, still thinking it out. I don't see it being you or Amrun, that's for sure.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1191 (isolation #51) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 9:39 am

We can run them one by one if you're cool with that. Which game would you like to start at? The one you mentioned prior?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1193 (isolation #52) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 9:46 am

881, iece was town, let's compare then.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1196 (isolation #53) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 9:58 am

First up, average post length. Town-iece had mostly shorter posts that game. The average length was a paragraph or two.

The striking thing from his ISO was how hesitant to vote he was. Five votes the entire game by my count. That's pretty damn consistant with his play here.

Do you see what I mean there?

Because honestly this game is kinda making his townmeta apparent, and I'd like to work on his scum games instead.

P-edit: We're thinking alike, but I do note a lot of his longer posts here are flavor speculation, I seem to recall him orifessing to be a huge fan of the flavor in quesiton here.

GoodCop_BadCop · Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:05 am

Okay now this is interesting. Go check out Mainstream Mafia.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=25981

Now, without spoilering yourself, take a guess when he went from town aligned to cult, given his ISO.

GoodCop_BadCop · Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:08 am

Okay. We can read each other's and compare notes.

GoodCop_BadCop · Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:15 am

My initial ISO skim of gay mafia shows that scum-iece was a bit more vote-happy. Seconed thing I notice is quite a few of his votes were just the vote and nothing else in the post. Almost as if afraid to give reasoning alongside it. Reading for full length of some of the days now, but it's a long game.

GoodCop_BadCop · Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:26 am

Mainstream Mafia:

930 was his first post as cult instead of town. Total 180 in posting style from day 1 and 2 to day 3 and on.

GoodCop_BadCop · Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:53 am

In post 1208, Selkies wrote:
In post 1205, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:Mainstream Mafia:

930 was his first post as cult instead of town. Total 180 in posting style from day 1 and 2 to day 3 and on.
I see that.

So what are your thoughts about this game in comparison to the others?

It matches town-iece a bit more than cult/scum-iece, but the "catchup" posts he made after balto meet are throwing off my comparisons. I'd like to metadive another one or two games and get back to you. I'll make it quick-ish. Your thoguhts?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1219 (isolation #59) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 1:51 pm

Selkies, just checking in to say that my other meta dives support my conclusions from above. I'm off to dinner and will try to sneak in a phone post or two, but nothing for sure. Fancy dinner with my father's die of the family.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1228 (isolation #60) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:03 pm

FFS we have less than an hour. Somebody at least declare intent.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1244 (isolation #61) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:09 pm

Selkies, you dreamwalked last night, right? This is of HUGE importance. If you did we've got confoscum, I'm pretty damn sure.

~BC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1246 (isolation #62) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:20 pm

In post 1243, Selkies wrote:During the night phase, Orcinus and I read GCBC's scum game, WWE Believe in the Shield. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=28017

The difference in play between that game and this one is pretty significant. I'm comfortable calling GCBC town, but check the iso for yourselves and see what you think.

Uh...

That's the player with the almost identical name we ended up with as. That's not us. At all.

GCBC is Cabd and Prohawk. This is the first game we've done on this account. Ever.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1247 (isolation #63) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:21 pm

Note the "_" in our hydra account name, then compare to the lack thereof in that linked game.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1249 (isolation #64) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:28 pm

Makes less certain but still good odds of scum, if you didn't walk. Let me get a few things nailed down and then I'll reveal what's going on.

Mara, name your targeted player last night please.

GoodCop_BadCop · Tue Jun 25, 2013 12:01 pm

In post 1256, Selkies wrote:
In post 1249, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:Makes less certain but still good odds of scum, if you didn't walk. Let me get a few things nailed down and then I'll reveal what's going on.
How is this going?

After clarifying some things with the mod, I've got quite the issue.

We need to massclaim, Demon first is fine.

My role results cannot be correct unless at least one of the claimed PRs is telling a lie, so a massclaim sorts out which one.

~BC

PS: Yo swords I read that game you linked. While it does match up with what I'm seeing here, it's not super conclusive enough.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1276 (isolation #66) » Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:45 pm

You know what? Fuck waiting for demon.

I'm Perrin Aybara. My golden eyes (that's the ability name) allows me to have wolves follow a player and tell me who if anyone at all, visited them. The issue I am having is this:

I targeted Selkies last night. I got back a note from the mod saying my wolves were unable to locate selkies. I cleared it up with the mod, and had I been re-directed, I would have been told that my wolves could not find "new target name here" or "my wolves say X Y Z visit new target name here"

The only reason I could have seen for that was that Selkies dream walked last night. But Selkies just said they did not. Therefore, selkies is a liar.
VOTE: SELKIES

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1278 (isolation #67) » Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:56 pm

Amrun night one, nobody visited Amrun on night one.

The results were worded entirely differently than the results night two, hence why I'm so sure it wasn't simply a case of nobody visiting selkies.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1308 (isolation #68) » Wed Jun 26, 2013 8:45 am

Soo... everyone has posted.

No one has provided evidence that would explain why we couldn't watch Selkies last night. Selkies admits to being able to Dreamwalk, yet denies having done so and also isn't claiming who he/she redirected to until everyone else has claimed. Dreamwalking is literally the only explanation as to why we couldn't watch Selkies.

Orc's spasmatic voting looks like a combination of distraction and flailing.

I was planning on voting Mara at the beginning of the day because she is likely scum, especially seeing ThAd's role-flip, then came the reveal of Selkies which directly countered the information we were given from our role. With the consideration that it is likely MYLO, its much safer to lynch lying scum over someone who is likely scum.

In post 1300, Selkies wrote: GCBC were you the third dreamwalker in that QT on night 1?

Is this a loaded question? N1 we watched Amrun with no one targeting her. N2 we watched you and got a failed result.

In post 1302, Nero Cain wrote:GCBC-Why did you claim that Thad has a role like yours?

In post 813, ThAdmiral wrote: I know that someone tried to target me last night and failed.

Here he claims he watched himself. I have the watcher role and initially thought there was no way there are two watchers but decided to hold off on the counter-claim.

We should be lynching Selkies today.

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1313 (isolation #69) » Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:14 am

Hey demon, how about this? I'll go first, selkies can go second, and you go third. Sound good?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1314 (isolation #70) » Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:17 am

I mean, that seems like a valid compromise to me.

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jun 26, 2013 10:16 am

Does anyone here have mod-meta on ceph? I'm starting to wonder if fakeclaims here are VI-type as in "ask the mod when you're ready for one, and then you get it in a few hours" as that would certainly explain what is going on with the repeated refusals to claim from demon.

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:54 pm

Here's the thing, Demon. Maybe I am mental, because I just can't see town motivation to actively refuse to mass claim at this point.

A mass claim helps us sort this out, and with quite a few players already claimed, you're just holding us up from making any sort of progress at solving the puzzle.

Demon has made it clear he's not claiming outside of L-1. However, if he's town, he's inviting a quick hammer by acting as such. Which would be against a town wincon.

I'm not seeing town in Demon. Like at all.

Selkies, I will still re-vote you in a heartbeat if the massclaim does not provide a valid reason as to why my role would have failed on you, but...

VOTE: Demon

Also, Selkies, you claimed most recently, you can popcorn to the next person while we wait on Demon to get back here.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1338 (isolation #73) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:51 pm

Okay selkies. Let's play "What is still worrying me about you, and what is making me feel better" the game. I'm your host, BC.

Issue the first:

Why, upon a re-read, do we have you claiming to have re-directed Demon last night paired with this post from nero cain?

In post 1280, Nero Cain wrote:And why do you want to hear from me?

This looks to me like Nero was re-directed last night. Tell me the odds of two re-directs in a single night. Because this doesn't add up. At all.

Issue the second:

I'll admit I've never played watcher before, but my PM did specify that my wolves could not find you, not that they were unable to leave, unable to go hunting, etc. Specifically "can't find her"

Here's what is making me feel better:

Orci FFS stop ruining perfectly good "watch and wait" movements. Demon's role kinda of clears up a huge chunk of this puzzle. I'm well aware it's possible that I was role blocked but now you're gone and given a good claim to demon on a silver platter.

I honestly can't see you hardbussing demon to this extent. If you're town, Demon as a Scum Roleblocker does make sense. Actually, no matter what you are, Demon as roleblocker makes sense. Of course, you won't out who you re-directed him towards so there's that. I really wish you would, or at least "it was you vs. it wasn't you".

So let's talk about these things, please?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1340 (isolation #74) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:02 pm

In post 1339, Selkies wrote:Do you think it is a good idea for me to say whether we redirected Demon toward you?

I honestly don't see how it could help scum, but lay it out for me if you think it could.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1344 (isolation #75) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:10 pm

In post 1341, Selkies wrote:The only thing I can see as an issue is that it reduces or increases the moving parts that Demon's claim needs to account for.

From my perspective, he's not gonna claim till L-1. He's been at L-2 for over a day I think, and I don't see the town motive in waiting. So at this point, he's probably gonna stall until you out that info or deadline hits anyways.

I think that if you re-directed him onto me, then it would explain my lack of results possibly. SO if you did, that makes you a town read, because as scum you WOULD have taken the easy out on dreamwalking.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1349 (isolation #76) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:24 pm

Okay then.

Welp....

You're giving so many wrong answers, any of which the opposite would essentially clear you in my mind. Hawk is gonna disagree, but I don't see you passing every single free clear. If this is the 2 trick again i'm gonna be upset but it doesn't feel the same. That said, if there's a roleblocker out there, they need to claim it.

I'm down on Nero being town. But just to be safe I'd like him to clarify that he was in fact talking about the invention thing and not the re-direct thing.

Meta-diving Demon for levels of activity as scum in mylo/lylo/etc positions.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1353 (isolation #77) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:34 pm

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=575
Start at post 493. Note demon's level of activity and posting style.

Mara you were in this one with MYLO with demon, right?

What's your take?

GoodCop_BadCop · Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:11 pm

People quoting my 1338. Learn to context. That was assuming the "Demon is a role blocker" theory selkies proposed to me. Go read the selkies posts before it.

In post 1325, Selkies wrote:
thirdly,
why the bloody fuck is he not even considering the possibility of a RB

I mean, hello

In post 1323, Selkies wrote: if GCBC were actually town he would be considering "HMMM SCUM HAVE PRs"

In post 1338, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:
Orci FFS stop ruining perfectly good "watch and wait" movements. Demon's role kinda of clears up a huge chunk of this puzzle. I'm well aware it's possible that I was role blocked but now you're gone and given a good claim to demon on a silver platter.

GoodCop_BadCop · Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:35 pm

http://wot.wikia.com/wiki/Rand_al%27Thor
http://wot.wikia.com/wiki/Domination_Band

This said, it was not a problem for Semirhage to completely control Rand al'Thor's body and connection to saidin, despite a second female channeler wearing the bracelet.

I'm so confused right now.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1380 (isolation #80) » Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:16 pm

I'm still here but I know ziltch on flavor.

How about we just look at both scenarios and what they mean?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1385 (isolation #81) » Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:26 pm

What is the commonly accepted standard for role blockers being able to role block themselves?
It's very possible that flavor tiebreaker was never needed if role blocking yourself isn't allowed anyways.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1387 (isolation #82) » Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:45 pm

So now I feel the need to ask Demon why he insisted on not claiming in line, and why his reveal came peacemeal as other information surfaced?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1399 (isolation #83) » Fri Jun 28, 2013 7:24 pm

Yes.

Demon also needs to claim his N1 action, I almost forgot that.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1400 (isolation #84) » Fri Jun 28, 2013 7:24 pm

Wait. No. I thought you said is demon scum. Derp.

My vote is my answer though.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1440 (isolation #85) » Mon Jul 01, 2013 6:52 pm

So uh. Waiting for
~Demon to explain his choices about not talking about dreamwalking
~Swords to be caught up and post

That said, Demon is still scum that needs to eat rope today.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1453 (isolation #86) » Tue Jul 02, 2013 9:33 am

ThAdmiral, Mat Cauthon, Town 1-shot Modified Reflexive Commuter 1-shot Nexus, lynched Day 2.

I assume the "nexus" part would have re-directed you, if I'm reading the wiki entry on it correctly. But it should have pushed you onto another player at random, unless the mechanic here is different than a standard nexus.

GoodCop_BadCop · Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:46 am

In post 1448, sword_of_omens wrote:putting this here for easy(ish) reference:

Selkies
- Egwene Al'Vere – Dreamer (Ability Finder)
Night 1 – Dreamed about ThAd (missed) / rec'd A'dam from SoO

MsMarangal
- Nynaeve Al'Mere - Doctor
Night 1 – Dreamwalked (with Ghostlin and Demon)

Demon
– Rand Al’Thor – Roleblocker, 1 shot Dreamwalk, 1 shot Lightning Rod
Night 1 – Dreamwalked (with Mara and Ghost, but kept silent)

Three players were dreamwalking therefore the nexus may have sent you to one of them.

GoodCop_BadCop · Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:57 am

A Nexus is a player that passively redirects players who target it to a random other player.

Key word there I think is passively.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1472 (isolation #89) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 7:55 am

Woah woah woah wait a second. Something here isn’t adding up at all.

Okay, so if we take you at face value, nero:
You’re a body guard with a delayed death should your protect be successful. Essentially, a bodyguard but with a bit of extra power. Is this correct?

But you didn’t claim day one when mara claimed doc. Nor did you claim D2 when she lived through the night. But day three, during massclaim, you claim bodyguard but not your exact role until you get pushed on. First you’re a bodyguard, then a doc (bodyguard that won’t die is a doc folks) then modified bodyguard. This worries me greatly.

Nero, can you clarify with more detail exactly why you chose to wait until D3 to claim?

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:33 am

In post 1476, Selkies wrote:If both bodyguard and doctor are in the game then there has to be something in your role mechanics that prevent you from forming a cross-protected cell of night time invulnerability.

Mara?
Nero?

This kinda got skipped.

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1512 (isolation #91) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 6:21 am

I'm not sure why we aren't lynching Demon/Empking.

There is a shroud of conflicting reveals/actions/targets that we really should be lynching from Selkies/Empking/GCBC. Although a lot of what has been going on has been speculated to be because of "flavor", I think that if all parties were claiming truth, it would be a whole lot easier to sort out then it has been. After reading, and re-reading it

still

doesn't make sense.

I don't like how Selkies uses mod convo as a crutch to try and side-step inconsistencies as well as how his target claim

after

Demon said he RB'ed me would still discredit my results:

In post 1378, Selkies wrote:One more thing.
I knew I needed to check another PM.

When I received the a'Dan I was told that it works on One Powers only.

Would the roleblock be a One Power?

In post 1391, Selkies wrote:
There is nothing in my PM Q&A about the a'Dan that mentions a gender restriction.
Going back through the PM convos
I did find that the redirect would fail if a player is not allowed to target themselves as well as it only working on One Powers.

"OP" = One Power?

What is missing from demon's flavor claim?

In post 1452, Selkies wrote:
I went back to check the PM from the mod about our night one action.
We were told that we tried to dream about ThAd but couldn't. We assumed the fail was due to his commuting, but hell if I understand the flavor reasons why dreaming about him would or woudln't fail.

I also don't see town-motivation from Demon's late timing and his reveal.

We claim our role.
Demon makes a post refusing to claim first.

If he were town, and willing to mass claim, why wait and let the Selkies vs GCBC arguement keep going when he "knew" that he role-blocked me and that it would confirm/validify my role and my results?

If he were scum, him waiting to claim would allow me to continue to tunnel Selkies and let me continue to think he was lying. It would also allow Selkies to maintain a pessimistic view and read like what happened here.

In post 1469, Nero Cain wrote: I wanted to try and fool scum some kinda way and then when SOO asked me I figured well, I figured if I did block a kill and then didn't die it might be too suspicious for town. Thought I DO eventully die, at the end of the next dayphase but I don't die immediately.

How exactly does you leaving out the modified part of your role fool scum? What were you hoping to accomplish?

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1513 (isolation #92) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 6:24 am

Emp, how much of the game have you actually read?

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1516 (isolation #93) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:45 am

Toss up between Mara/Nero.

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1518 (isolation #94) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 9:04 am

No, you asked who else I think it scum. I think its highly likely you and Demon are scum together with your claims working together while the third being between Nero/Mara. BC/Cabd is out of town, so I can't collaborate nor speak with him, but that is the impression I am getting post re-read.

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 10, 2013 12:40 pm

Watched Nero last night.

Result came back that Iecerint targeted Nero.

VOTE: Iecerint

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1559 (isolation #96) » Thu Jul 11, 2013 4:29 am

In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5115211#p5115211]post 1559[/url], ProHawk wrote:
In post 1539, Empking wrote: My reads are more Mara, Selk and Iece? Am I missing something or why that can't be?

In post 1558, Empking wrote: I didn't do anything last night.
Why?

~GC

And I was doing so good...

GoodCop_BadCop · Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:20 am

In post 1568, sword_of_omens wrote:
In post 1552, GoodCop_BadCop wrote:Watched Nero last night.

Result came back that Iecerint targeted Nero.

VOTE: Iecerint

~GC
What was the prupose of watching Nero last night? He was a scum read of yours yesterday, so why would you want to see who targets scum?

I weighed the odds of TWO scum cliaming a protective role and there being no protective role in this setup. That didn't make any sense. Mara's scumflip made nero pretty much confotown AND a protective PR to boot. He was the most likely NK, and so it made sense.

Selkies, how sure are you that the partner is Demon/Emp?

GoodCop_BadCop · Fri Jul 12, 2013 12:54 pm

In post 1567, Iecerint wrote:Well, I didn't take any action last night, not even an action at Nero, so I don't see any shenanigans that could have led GCBC to get that kind of result on me.

VOTE: GCBC

I literally watched you decapitate and rip Nero to shreds; you are caught red-handed. Die now.

~GC

GoodCop_BadCop · Post Post #1579 (isolation #99) » Tue Jul 16, 2013 7:53 am

Claim night role results in order of scummiest to least please.

Beli went first, Emp goes next.

I or swords last doesn't really matter which order.

GoodCop_BadCop · Tue Jul 16, 2013 11:51 am

In post 1580, Empking wrote:I targeted Selkies with a roleblock.

Did you get anything from swords?

GoodCop_BadCop · Tue Jul 16, 2013 12:29 pm

Very well. I'm pretty sure I know how everything played out last night, then. Will wait on swords to confirm his action, but everything clicks into place.

GoodCop_BadCop · Tue Jul 16, 2013 6:03 pm

Okay.

So I can confirm Swords is telling the truth. Hawk and I debated over who to watch, couldn't decide between selkies (the investigative) or swords (the obvtown) because we knew one of the three of us would be the NK target. I flipped a coin since he and I couldn't agree, and it said to watch Swords. I got a result that I could not find swords. Which makes perfect sense with him dreamwalking.

Therefore, scum is either Emp or Beli. At this point we need to look at both of them. I know selkies was leaning emp before she died, but I need to go back and re-read the D1 interactions between these two and the two flipped scum. Also, things that worry me are Beli's hammer yesterday, and Emp's target he claimed today. The "yes I role blocked selkies" thing feels like a cover in case I targeted selkies last night.

GoodCop_BadCop · Tue Jul 16, 2013 8:03 pm

No lynch is a bad idea since scum will just kill myself or swords. All it does is take it from two people debating which of you is scum to only one of us. We know it's one of you two {emp, beli} at this point. In fact, Emp's post looks like it's made just to attempt to gain towncred, since he says beli is scum but goes for the NL anyways. Swords, thoughts?

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:51 pm

Working up a VCA post.
So.
Many.
Votecounts.

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:51 pm

In post 1600, Empking wrote: Apart from that Iece was scummiest than GB and it was obviously one versus one.

While I work, explain what the hell this means, because it makes so sense.

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:46 pm

Vote Count Analysis Day One

Scum in red, two possible scum candidates in blue, everyone else in green.

Spoiler: Show mid day counts

Vote Count 1.F

milkshake 7[Lynched!] (ThAdmiral, MattP

, Ms Marangal

, Ghostlin, Nero Cain, GoodCop_BadCop,

Iecerint

)

ThAdmiral 4 (

Belisarius

, Amrun, Selkies, milkshake)

Ms Marangal

1

(

Demon

)

Not Voting 1 (sword_of_omens)

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 5:41 pm

Notable day one events from VCA:

Starting with 1-8 and going until 1-14 were see mangal vote park on demon without actively pushing the slot. This seems like an insurance park to later appear like she was pushing him. In 1-14 demon fires back, so it's a cross-vote. In 1-16 however, Demon hops onto the Thad wagon. Mara goes for milkshake. Milkshake from 1-2 to 1-16 is a town driven wagon. Both demon and beli are on THad in 1-16, with mara on milk, and iece on swords. 1-18 sees the rebuilding of a milk wagon, with mara in the famous slot #3.

Mara counterwagon begins to form in 1-19, with demon sitting in the second slot.
1-20 shows the L-1 count for milk, with mara the only scum onboard. It's very obvious scum wanted milk's wagon to be town driven. Demon on the second largest wagon (marangal) and iece sitting around on swords alone. Beli on thad with amrun.

Final vote count shows milk hammered by iece. Two scum on the wagon, 1 scum off. Marangal wagon evaporates.... save for demon again. Noticing a pattern here. Beli is on Thad.

Now, looking at wagons ON the candidates, there's no day one wagon on demon, but take a look at the wagon on beli starting at 1-8. Demon pushes beli first, selkies follows. By 1-11 milk and ghostlin hop onboard. This continues in 1-12 through 13. In 14, the wagon is completely gone? Note that the posts between 13 and 14 contian selkies flipping their read of beli. Now check where demon goes. Yep. Right back to marangal.

Check out who votes demon all day. Hint: ONLY marangal.

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:30 pm

Vote Count Analysis Day Two

Same as before. Scum in red, two possible scum candidates in blue, everyone else in green.

Spoiler: Show mid day counts

Vote Count 2.F

ThAdmiral 6 [Lynched!] (GoodCop_BadCop,

Belisarius

,

Iecerint

, Selkies, Amrun, sword_of_omens)

Ms Marangal

2 (

Demon

, ThAdmiral)

Demon

1 (

Ms Marangal

)

Selkies 1 (Nero Cain)

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:15 pm

Notable day two events from VCA:

Things start getting interesting with 2-3. We see Beli on Thad along with me. Demon, mara, iece not voting yet.

2-5 we start to see the familiar cross-vote pattern emerge with Demon hopping on mara. By 2-6, the other half is complete. Mara is on demon. They park on each other the entire day from then on. Neither is on the final wagon. Thad is lynched with them having their votes on each other. No scum hunting goes on at all between the two.

Beli, on the other hand, pushes hard for Thad the entire day, not moving off the wagon once.

I'm pretty damn convinced it's Demon/Emp at this point. I'll keep going just to be safe, but this is really obvious.

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:16 pm

While I keep working, swords, can you give your results? You said you had some stuff to go back and read?

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:35 pm

Vote Count Analysis Day Three

Same as before. Scum in red, two possible scum candidates in blue, everyone else in green.

Spoiler: Show mid day counts

Vote Count 3.F

Ms Marangal

5 [Lynched!] (Nero Cain,

Empking

, sword_of_omens,

Belisarius

, Selkies)

Empking 2 (GoodCop_BadCop,

Ms Marangal

)

Not Voting 1 (

Iecerint

)

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:38 pm

Notable day three events from VCA:

Well now it HAS to be empking. Let's take a look more carefully at vote count 3.6, shall we?

In post 1534, Cephrir wrote:
Vote Count 3.6
because it seems pertinent

Ms Marangal 4

[L-1]
(Nero Cain, Empking, sword_of_omens, Belisarius)

Empking 4

[L-1]
(Iecerint, Selkies, GoodCop_BadCop, Ms Marangal)

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 3 will be Monday, July 10th, 11:59 PM.

Notice something? Had beli been the last scum, he switches wagons to Empking, hammers him, and we go into night with zero protective roles, with the entire scumteam intact. They get any kill, like anyone claimed who cannot walk, and win in the daystart update. There was literally no reason for Beli to have NOT hammered emp there if beli was scum. So it's empking.

GoodCop_BadCop · Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:39 pm

VOTE: Empking

Swords, you can have the honors.

GoodCop_BadCop · Fri Jul 19, 2013 12:23 pm

Man I was worried as fuck you were scum trolling us or something. (A la muttlydmc)

But then I looked at the post 1610 again and realized you and beli BOTH could have hammered emp for the win. So it has to be emp. So we win. Woohoo.

GoodCop_BadCop · Fri Jul 19, 2013 12:32 pm

I can't beleive we pulled that off going from mylo to town win. Like seriously. I want to draw watcher in all my games now. Coolest PR ever.