Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Mafia Game Over

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #335 (isolation #0) » Thu Jun 06, 2013 5:48 am

Hello there! I'm a bit tired and maybejetlagged from Baltomeet but I will be reading nowtodayish anyway because POST-MEET MAFIA ITCH. Yay!

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #340 (isolation #1) » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:54 am

Quick-read the game.

UNVOTE: Saint

Definitely not voting for:

fuzzy

Probably not voting for:

Saint (but please feel free to vig for misogyny), TMTLJWUMBUIGNISUFG, Jake, BROseidon

Must post more:

ArcAngel (in particular, has been prod-dodging since page 5), penguin_alien, Amrun

Considering voting for:

DeasVail, RachMarie, Lord Mhork, Ghostlin

I was fine with DV thanks to posts like #15, which said what I was thinking as I read, until I got to #246. I've got a pretty strong townread on Jake - he's done nothing forced - and I don't buy that DV believes in this vote more than he does in a vote for Ghostlin. It also rings alarm bells about scum trying to avoid following through on the Lord Mhork wagon. Why did you abandon your Mhork vote, DV? You've barely mentioned him since #175, when you thought he was scum, and you've called him an "easier target" as recently as #32. What's changed?

I got mild scumvibes off Mac for #31 and RachMarie's opportunistic interest in the pedantic nature of Jake's case on Fuzzy is far scummier than anything that either Jake or Fuzzy have done all game.

I found Ghostlin's #225 suggestive of scum. For one thing, it looks like Ghostlin has just tried to think of a catch-all reason why Saint is town rather than actually grasp with anything he's said. Meanwhile, the complaint about getting complaints when others are posting less is phrased in a way that makes it look like Ghostlin is thinking about making himself look OK than really trying to hunt malicious intent in any scumhunting attempts. The emphasis feels wrong.

Lord Mhork's where I want to put my vote, though. As I read through, I originally wanted to vote because I had a mild scumread for #9, where he either ignores or is not looking for actual clues from the early posts - Saint's #8 was the towniest thing to that point and already a reason why a 'random' vote on him would be less helpful than on more or less any player. If the point of random voting is to get early reactions from scum, why vote someone who's already trying to unsettle suspects with interesting questions? Then there was #41, where it looks like he's looking for other people to validate his read for legitimacy. I've done that as scum and it's good because it helps you avoid responsibility for things ("hey! this townie was OK with it!"). Town have no need for that kind of backup before committing to a suspicion.

Then there's also the slow reduction in votes on him for generally pretty bad alternatives. It feels like a wagon on scum where the buddies are trying to drive in another direction; that's why DeasVail is now bugging me. We should go back to this. VOTE: Lord Mhork

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #342 (isolation #2) » Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:58 am

I got huge townvibes from Fuzzy in the opening pages. He's totally carefree (a general towntell) and consistent with the last time that I saw him as town.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #350 (isolation #3) » Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:15 am

In post 346, Amrun wrote:Read CDB's post -- question, why is looking for a catch all reason to call Saint town scummy, unless Ghostlin is scum with Saint? (And do you think the latter is the case?)

What I'm trying to get at is that it seems an unnatural read, like Ghostlin is scum who knows that Saint is town and is just making up some cheap, rough psychologicagubbins rather than actually reading him in-depth in order to be able to draw the conclusion that he's town. Does that make sense? And no, I clearly don't think Saint is scum.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #352 (isolation #4) » Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:33 am

Mhork, I've already mentioned part of why I think Saint is town in the post you quoted - his first post started off on a town foot. Ever since that, I've been unsettled by the votes that have gone his way - as well as yours, penguin_alien's #13 was not a good vote. Ghostlin's #59 wasn't great, either, and makes him look slow on the uptake when you compare it to the post I pointed out before where he unilaterally declares Saint town. I definitely didn't buy that you could have been ready to lynch Saint in #69, as well. He may know it a bit too much but Saint seems fairly clear town to me and there are so many other better avenues to explore that it feels absurd.

BRO - 'k.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #395 (isolation #5) » Fri Jun 07, 2013 8:54 am

Mod:

Could we get a Vote Count, please?

I'd move to Ghostlin or RachMarie although I think Lord Mhork is probably still the better information lynch. Probably not DeasVail yet.

In post 392, DeasVail wrote:I still have Mhork as a scumread and would be willing to vote for him if there was more support there, but Jake is stronger for me right now.

Why did you refer to Mhork as an "easier target"?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #430 (isolation #6) » Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:57 pm

In post 407, Amrun wrote:CDB, I asked you a question and you didn't answer it. IS THE SHEET STILL ON YOUR HEAD?!

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p5010614

Ghostlin town

Why?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #431 (isolation #7) » Fri Jun 07, 2013 7:00 pm

In post 420, Lord Mhork wrote:
In post 352, ChannelDelibird wrote:Mhork, I've already mentioned part of why I think Saint is town in the post you quoted - his first post started off on a town foot. Ever since that, I've been unsettled by the votes that have gone his way - as well as yours, penguin_alien's #13 was not a good vote. Ghostlin's #59 wasn't great, either, and makes him look slow on the uptake when you compare it to the post I pointed out before where he unilaterally declares Saint town. I definitely didn't buy that you could have been ready to lynch Saint in #69, as well. He may know it a bit too much but Saint seems fairly clear town to me and there are so many other better avenues to explore that it feels absurd.

BRO - 'k.
This isn't a case for towniness though. I say he needs pressure, especially after the way he reacted earlier. He flipped a shit about three votes. Why was my vote bad? Penguin might have been sketch, but still...

It is a case for towniness. He looked town early on, scummy people are attacking him. I've already explained why your vote is bad but I may go back and find it for you a bit later when it's not 7am.

In post 420, Lord Mhork wrote:And who says that I was ready to lynch Saint?

In post 69, Lord Mhork wrote:PEdit:
So... Uh... I'd be cool lynching this thing...

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #432 (isolation #8) » Fri Jun 07, 2013 7:02 pm

#429 looks pretty town.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #437 (isolation #9) » Sat Jun 08, 2013 1:07 am

Pretty sure DeasVail did answer me.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #442 (isolation #10) » Sat Jun 08, 2013 3:16 am

In post 439, Amrun wrote:CDB, I didn't know that was an answer because it lacked a comma. I thought you were saying you needed to see
More of me before commenting on my alignment.

Either way, that's a pitiful answer to that question. You said Ghost looking for a universal reason to call Saint town was scummy. I asked you why. You can't possibly need more time to evaluate that; you've already said it is scummy.

I actually don't know what you're trying to say here. I did put you in the 'needs to post more before I can judge alignment' category but what does that have to do with my answer to you (I'm not asking as an accusation, I'm just confused)? What have I said about needing more time to evaluate my point about Ghostlin? I've explained my thought process as best I can. If Ghostlin is scum, he doesn't need to put in the effort to read Saint thoroughly in order to know that he is town. I think his cheap catch-all reason for Saint being scum is the sort of thing that people who've only glanced at Saint rather than actually tried to read him properly would say.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #469 (isolation #11) » Sun Jun 09, 2013 12:16 am

Jake's not happening, DV.

In post 460, Saint wrote:i dont lynch for information, or i'd be voting mhork, or ghostlin. pretty much everyone has taken a stance there. i lynch scum.

Luckily with Mhork we lynch scum

and

get information. I'm hardly saying "Mhork's town but let's vote him anyway".

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #481 (isolation #12) » Sun Jun 09, 2013 12:21 pm

UNVOTE: Lord Mhork, VOTE: Ghostlin

That was handled pretty badly; it's not like we wouldn't have waited for Mhork to claim and now both masons are outed rather than one. Alas.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #484 (isolation #13) » Sun Jun 09, 2013 12:28 pm

I understand the desperation of "oh shit, my mason buddy's getting strung up!" but we wouldn't have needed you to clear him anyway (today, at least). "I am a Mason with buddies who can confirm me later" is enough to disband a Day 1 wagon.

No worries, though. More Ghostlin votes!

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #519 (isolation #14) » Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:53 am

In post 510, ArcAngel9 wrote:VOTE: LMhork

You clearly haven't read the thread before voting. If you're town, then voting instead of a "I still haven't caught up yet!" post is unhelpful and potentially dangerous. I can see no pro-town reason to do that. If you're scum, voting instead of a "I still haven't caught up yet!" post is, on the off-chance that there haven't been any mason claims since you last posted (and, hey, what are the chances of that?), a way to look as if you are paying attention and have an opinion rather than just lurking and hoping a mislynch happens before anyone picks up on it. There is obviously a pro-scum reason to do that.

UNVOTE: Ghostlin, VOTE: ArcAngel9

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #534 (isolation #15) » Mon Jun 10, 2013 9:51 am

ARCANGEL: How was voting without having read the game supposed to help the town? Who is your character and why are they a supersaint?

EVERYONE ELSE: Ghostlin hammers ArcAngel = profit either way, yes?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #545 (isolation #16) » Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:20 am

Oh, for the love of all that is good and right.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #547 (isolation #17) » Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:24 am

WE ARE NOT HAVING A CLAIMED MASON HAMMER A CLAIMED SUPERSAINT ON DAY 1. END OF DISCUSSION.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #551 (isolation #18) » Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:38 am

Or we can keep both claimed masons around and, if they're town, scum will be forced to nightkill them at some point thereby confirming them and keeping any other potential power roles away from the nightkill. There is no reason to voluntarily kill one of our two claimed masons on Day 1 just to satisfy your own paranoia - it doesn't mean we're writing them off as confirmed town now, it just means that it's better to look elsewhere at this point. We will come back to them if they don't start dying but we should be trying to kill scum instead.

Ghostlin is going to hammer you whether or not you are telling the truth (which I doubt - you still haven't answered me when I asked how your behaviour as been intended to help the town) and, for my sanity's sake, can we hurry up about that?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #624 (isolation #19) » Fri Jun 14, 2013 8:31 am

Hello. Civ 5 stole my last day or so. Will check in tomorrow with a proper post.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #665 (isolation #20) » Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:12 am

Hello. Civilisation V is a time-sucker and I'm bad at making myself stop playing it to do stuff. I'm catching up on another game tonight before bed but will get to this as soon as I'm up in the morning (which may not be *early* but it'll be the morning). If I don't, you should probably lynch me.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #671 (isolation #21) » Mon Jun 17, 2013 2:18 am

OK, I'm going back through Day 2 now - still technically on shift at work so it might be a bit slow but I'm on it now.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #672 (isolation #22) » Mon Jun 17, 2013 2:54 am

Well, that was shorter than I was expecting.

I'll start with Ghostlin. The way he went about the hammer looks town (probably enough to ignore him today) but I still have reservations. While Fuzzy's logic is all wrong (you can't explain why town might do something and then insist that scum wouldn't try to do that, because the whole point of scum is that they want to look like town) I think it's fairly obvious that he believes what he's saying, so I find posts like this hard to understand.

On this:

In post 643, BROseidon wrote:VOTE: TMTOL

Anyone else see it?

...my answer has to be 'no, not something specific in that last post'

but

, assuming for now that the masons are telling the truth, I find it difficult to imagine a scumgroup not containing TMOAFGKAMLDXP at this point. I'm happy enough to call Fuzzy, DV and Saint town for the time being and that does narrow things down a fair bit.

Amrun, you haven't actually spoken about TSAPTERASA today despite the early vote - could you summarise why you're voting him please? BRO, could you explain the quoted post?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #673 (isolation #23) » Mon Jun 17, 2013 2:57 am

No worries, I've

just

gone back to the last page to look for more and caught Amrun addressing TPAMPFFOAOGJAD (it helps when you're not just ISOing). I'm pretty much on board with the case.

VOTE: TMTOLBTWNTOF

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #675 (isolation #24) » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:24 am

That's an excellent point.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #694 (isolation #25) » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:01 pm

Amrun, you haven't mentioned penguin_alien for a long time. I don't necessarily disagree with the vote but why not expand on it?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #695 (isolation #26) » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:38 pm

I'm not normally one to do this but I had the urge (and the time) just now and I think it could help. I went back and had a look through the vote counts to see if there was anything to be learned.

I put confirmed dead town in green and myself in blue and that didn't illuminate an awful lot but, when I put the masons in purple (as I don't think they're lying), it looks more interesting.

Spoiler: Vote Counts

The main things I took from this were two:

Amrun and Ghostlin vote together a lot.
If scum were on the ArcAngel lynch, they came to it late. I will have a look back at that lynch as a matter of priority - Ghostlin's hammer, which I thought was town at the time but stands against a few scumdar pings, needs reevaluation.

I'll go and do that now but I think I know where I'm going to be voting at the end of it.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #696 (isolation #27) » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:53 pm

Ghostlin's 531 (pre-supersaint claim) has a weird language dissonance. He says "Let me give it to you slowly: We. Are. Not. Lynching. Claimed. Masons. Today." which sounds like the sort of thing you'd say as a last chance, get-your-shit-together-or-I-vote-you thing, but then he just votes her anyway. Seems like a best-of-both-worlds scum post.

Yeah, I feel there's enough there that Ghostlinscum would have believed that Arc was faking for some reason and be confident enough to hammer. I mean, we all knew Arc was faking, it was obvious bullshit, that's why she was lynched.

Also worth noting: Jake wanted Ghostlin dead pretty badly and he died N1.

Meanwhile, BRO's 523 looks like scum keeping hands clean in expectation of Arctown while encouraging pressure.

VOTE: Ghostlin

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #700 (isolation #28) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:26 am

I'm going to ignore your first point because I've already made my point about the language and we can only have a yes/no argument about it. Others can decide for themselves.

In post 698, Ghostlin wrote:2) Reading this sentence it essentially reads, "Ghostlin was secure that Archangel was scum and willing to hammer because Archangel's claim was bad." This ignores two facts: Town or scum, I wouldn't have necessarily known AA was bluffing. I would have a lot more to lose as scum being correct than Town.

I'm not saying you wouldn't have a lot to lose as scum if she was telling the truth. I'm saying it was obvious enough that she wasn't telling the truth that that drawback was greatly reduced to the point where you'd probably take the risk for the chance of the townpoints+mislynch.

Fact two: this reason is a bunch of cognitive dissonance masquerading as a valid reason to vote. I could of been equally secure of AA's claim being fake as Town but wanted to test it.

Exactly. The act itself is

equal

, meaning that it does not give you the townpoints to outweigh the

other

things that I find scummy about you, that I have discussed in previous posts. I'm not voting you

for

the hammer. I'm voting you for other things because the hammer is null.

I could of been holding out on my own flip.

This is a hint at a power role and I don't believe it at all. Everything about your behaviour around the hammer was trying to project the impression that you were OK with dying for the greater cause. Now you want me to consider that you might have been trying to protect a power role? Bullshit, you're saying this in case it helps get votes off you.

3) This is WIFOM and you know it.

There are elements of WIFOM but nightkill analysis is underrated on this site at the moment because every time anyone tries to bring it up, it's shouted down with "WIFOM" on principle. Scum kills are always done with a reason. Sometimes that reason is "to screw over people who try to analyse the nightkills". Most of the time it's not.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #702 (isolation #29) » Thu Jun 20, 2013 11:29 am

In post 701, Amrun wrote:REASONS

DON'T RAIN ON MY PARADE

EVEN THOUGH YOU ALREADY DID

WHY DID YOU DO THAT CDB

Because it was weird. It's still weird.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #710 (isolation #30) » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:29 am

I'll come to this tonight if I can but my access will be slightly reduced this weekend, particularly on Saturday. Just to let y'all know.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #721 (isolation #31) » Sun Jun 23, 2013 7:26 pm

Getting back to this a little later today, just posting to check in after the tiger attack.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #727 (isolation #32) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 4:46 am

In post 704, Lord Mhork wrote:ChannelDelibird, Ghostlin aside, who's scum?

I think there's a good chance that BROseidon is one, as I mentioned a little earlier Today. I'll want to have another look at a few people for a third - penguin_alien's mostly been a null read on the edge of the game, which is pretty bad now that I actually write it down in front of me. I have to consider everyone again at this point, obviously, although I'm pretty happy to write off you and Rach as town.

While buddies are important considerations, though, we do have to remember that we haven't got a scum flip yet, so really we should be lynching the scummiest player flat-out. I'd rather chase scummy individuals for now than connections between two or three unflipped players.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #728 (isolation #33) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 4:56 am

In post 706, Amrun wrote:Obviously it's weird. You couldn't see what penguin alien did with a weird vote? -.-

I'm going to look back at penguin_alien imminently but I'd like you to expand on this anyway.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #729 (isolation #34) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 5:03 am

In post 709, penguin_alien wrote:Your reservations [about Ghostlin], as far as I can tell, come from his vote on Saint at the beginning of Day One. I know some people think early-game is where they do their best scumhunting, but you're not specifically referring back to that case. If these reasons you discussed earlier are so compelling, why not detail them?

They do mostly come from Day 1 but you've missed this from Day 2 as well as linguistic issues around the hammer (actually hammering was null, a couple of the things he said around it look scummy). Let's not forget that we had Ghostlin hammer ArcAngel for a reason - we were looking like lynching him otherwise and might well have done if ArcAngel hadn't Done Her Thing. If we accept that the ArcAngel hammer wasn't the shining beacon of towniness that we wrote it off for before, then it really isn't that weird that I still have a scumread on him.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #730 (isolation #35) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 5:09 am

Fuzzy, you seem to have fairly strong scumreads on both penguin_alien and BROseidon (and, seemingly, Ghostlin, as you agreed with me earlier). What about penguin makes you vote her over the other two?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #732 (isolation #36) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 5:31 am

Oh, sorry, I misread you. I thought you were implying that penguin had "done" a weird vote and that I hadn't seen the vote in question. Got you now.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #733 (isolation #37) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 5:32 am

As to why I didn't wait; I'm sorry, it didn't occur to me. That

is

part of the risk you take when you do something deliberately weird.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #756 (isolation #38) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 11:44 pm

In post 752, Lord Mhork wrote:What was so obvious about it?

In post 753, Lord Mhork wrote:Also I adore the fact that you're only now saying that you didn't believe the claim and, moreover, that you've found Ghostlin scummy all game but there were also posts of his that you "liked a lot." What's up with that?

Hmm. I went back and looked back at BRO's iso around the AA claim because my response was going to be: Come on, it was obviously fake enough that six people pre-Ghostlin wanted to lynch her. But BRO doesn't actually show any signs of disbelieving the claim itself, only that he's "thirding the idea of using AA as a double lynch".

In post 537, BROseidon wrote:VOTE: AA

That's L-1. I third the idea of using AA as a double lynch.

In the post before, Lord Mhork does a similar thing, but he only a few posts earlier, just before the claim, explains why he thinks AA is scum so he's on record as being unlikely to believe the claim. So his position makes sense from a town POV.

The only thing that BRO had said about AA before that, however, was a "not sure if scum or stupid". It's altogether more indicative of someone who knows AA's alignment and is happy to go ahead and get somebody else to hammer the claimed supersaint. He doesn't even mention Ghostlin specifically at this point, although he was voting him earlier.

UNVOTE: Ghostlin, VOTE: BROseidon

Hopefully Ghostlin can show up soon. I'd really like to see which way he went when BRO and penguin_alien are the top two alternatives to his own wagon.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #763 (isolation #39) » Tue Jun 25, 2013 8:19 pm

I'd rather we figure out whether or not Ghostlin has flaked before anyone hammers. I want to see what he says about BRO and penguin_alien.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #769 (isolation #40) » Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:43 am

Saint, you have heard of safeclaims, right?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #772 (isolation #41) » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:36 am

Sigh. Replacement.

Anyway, Saint, to expand: Nexus is a competent mod, so I'd assume that the scum have at least one important character as a safeclaim. Hermione could be a VT in this game, sure, but if anything having a dead Harry Potter actually makes her

more

likely to be a safeclaim that without a dead Harry, if you get me. Basically the claim is super null.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #786 (isolation #42) » Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:58 pm

DV's flip is part of why I feel so confident about the masons. He wouldn't turn down the opportunity to clear/catch two people in one night, surely...

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #797 (isolation #43) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:30 am

I think it's best if I neither confirm nor deny that interpretation.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #798 (isolation #44) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:32 am

Unless that was a slip of the

tongue

typing finger and you meant DV, in which case I think that's a stretch, especially when it makes so much more sense for him to have investigated the masons.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #799 (isolation #45) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:34 am

Ghostlin - why wouldn't you just read the thread to catch up rather than starting with an iso and a summary?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #806 (isolation #46) » Fri Jun 28, 2013 4:37 am

I think BRO should be lynched today but I also want Ghostlin to catch up and talk about both BRO and penguin_alien before we do that. As you were, basically.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #812 (isolation #47) » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:16 am

I really want Ghostlin to take stances on BRO and penguin before either of them flip. It is annoying that he's making us wait but, the longer he waits, the more I want to be sure that it happens.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #817 (isolation #48) » Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:12 am

He's been prodded again so we'll see. My patience isn't going to last forever, either, but I'm going to be so annoyed if he gets away without putting himself out there today.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #818 (isolation #49) » Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:13 am

Or we can just lynch Ghostlin instead.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #820 (isolation #50) » Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:25 am

I don't think the disappearance is particularly scummy (god forbid I have a go at somebody for either not being around or for having their head in certain threads more than others) but it's not like I didn't want to lynch him already.

Either, frankly, is fine.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #850 (isolation #51) » Sun Jun 30, 2013 12:27 pm

BRO, exactly how am I trying to step away from a mislynch? I have been repeatedly making it clear that I want you to be lynched. I've just wanted Ghostlin to take stances today before we do so but feel free to tell me how that doesn't help anyone because you claim to think that he is scum too so why wouldn't you want to see how he reacted to your position just before we hammered?

My patience with Ghostlin is wearing pretty damn thin by now, though. Hammer if you want. I think they're both scum.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #864 (isolation #52) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 6:37 am

NOW can we lynch Ghostlin? (After claims obv but he should go first in all senses of the word)

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #867 (isolation #53) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 6:49 am

When have I ever implied that activity is why I want you dead?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #868 (isolation #54) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 7:00 am

Updated Vote Counts

Spoiler: Vote Counts

Gonna start looking for conclusions next.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #869 (isolation #55) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 7:02 am

First thing to do is make absolutely sure that Mhork and Rach are telling the truth. I'm pretty sure they are but it's LyLo, so no harm in double-checking. Going to reread them now and check if their behaviour stacks up.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #870 (isolation #56) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 7:09 am

OK, Mhork and Rach are town. If they're scum, then they've concocted an incredibly ballsy gambit from the start and played it absolutely perfectly. I'm not lynching them, ever. Which means it's three from four. This should be easy (in theory).

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #872 (isolation #57) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 8:02 am

I'm going to start by picking out notes of interest from the vote counts and then going back to reread things focused on the four possibles. So, a few things that jump out at me from the VCs:

At least one scum (penguin_alien, Ghostlin) was on Saint early on. Penguin stayed on it for a long time, Ghostlin dropped off it. This wagon should be looked at closely.
As of votecount 1.4, three possibles were all voting for TMLPASMKFASE. How likely is it that they were
all
on him at the same time? This wagon definitely needs a look, and first thought is that it implicates penguin_alien pretty strongly.
Scum were resistant to the Ghostlin wagon late on Day 1. (Saint's vote stayed on Mhork even by lynch; I need to look again at his activity around then)
Scum were late onto the ArcAngel wagon. Need to reread that (but we already know that Ghostlin looks baaaaad around it).
Amrun and Ghostlin were quick to start the TMQAQWPEQSCAXPZM wagon.
Amrun's Day 3 vote on penguin_alien needs to be looked at for any buddy tells.

Next: Rereading from the start, paying particular attention to these things.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #873 (isolation #58) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 8:45 am

Looks like I'm going to start playing some Skype mafia imminently so I'll just let you know generally how I'm getting on. I've read 8 pages and, so far, I'm almost comically convinced of Ghostlin's scumminess. Penguin_alien looks very, very, very, very likely to be scum as well. And Saint looks significantly townier than DoctorPepper in the early stages, with a couple of things not clicking right for Saint as a buddy to Ghostlin or penguin. I'll get into that properly later and read the rest of the game but that's where my money is at the moment: Ghostlin, penguin, Amrun.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #876 (isolation #59) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:20 am

It makes sense because three of the four of you must be scum (and, I agree, at this point it's hard to imagine anything making sense if penguin isn't one of them) so it'd be more notable if there

weren't

things to link people together.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #885 (isolation #60) » Thu Jul 04, 2013 10:46 pm

I'm Albus Dumbledore. Once per game I can commute to the Ministry of Magic and become untargetable, which I did last night.

Amrun, you're up.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #889 (isolation #61) » Fri Jul 05, 2013 10:49 pm

Should add that Marathon weekend is distracting me so that read and stuff is probably getting finished after it's done.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #908 (isolation #62) » Sun Jul 07, 2013 11:18 pm

Mhork, tell me how this game makes sense if Ghostlin and penguin_alien aren't scum, because I don't see it at the moment.

I'm done with marathon weekend now so I'll go back to my reread shortly.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #909 (isolation #63) » Sun Jul 07, 2013 11:28 pm

In post 897, penguin_alien wrote:CDB, why commute last night? As opposed to on an earlier night? Or seeing if we can lynch scum today and so have the breathing room of MyLo down the road if you used it later?

Earlier on, I thought I was safe to not use it because I thought the masons would start dying a lot earlier. Assuming three scum, I knew we would have to massclaim today so, if I kept the commute until after that and the numbers started to thin, I felt like it would just look like I was gambiting scum if I successfully soaked a kill in the late/endgame. If I'd been another player looking in, that's what I would have suspected.

Anyway, even if I had soaked the kill on a previous night, that would still give us the breathing room of MyLo down the road.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #919 (isolation #64) » Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:31 pm

Mhork, you've briefly voted Amrun and you're 90% sure on Saint. I'll get back to those guys after my morning shift (during which posting now) but that means at least one of Ghostlin and penguin is town. Just ... how? Explain one to me. I don't understand how this game makes sense if they're not scum.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #942 (isolation #65) » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:36 am

Carrying on my read back from where I left off in Day 1. This sticks out as unlikely to mean Saint & PA being scum together.

In post 212, Saint wrote:
In post 192, penguin_alien wrote:Hey, ArcAngel9, why zero comments on anything past RVS? An opinion on Saint vs. Lord Mhork? Or anything else?

Jake from State Farm, your push on DeasVail doesn't track from an outside perspective. Is there some play history you have with him that makes you think what you're pointing out goes with him being scum? And I'm not sure why you don't see the problem with Saint going 'This quote here from ArcAngel9 [insert quote from DeasVail] is something town would say, so ArcAngel9 must be town.' If it's a mistake, fine, but why not acknowledge it promptly? It's easy to pull the wrong quote when assembling a post, but trying to hold onto a read with a demonstrable lack of basis isn't symptomatic of town trying to establish genuine reads.

Saint, first you find DeasVail's quote (the one attributed to AA9) very towny, you continually list him as a town read, and then off the fact that he asked you to back up the perfunctory moving of your vote from ArcAngel9 to SafetyDance, he becomes your top scum read? Can you break that down further? Because while I get keeping your word re: voting the next person who votes you, useless though such a move may be, your settling there for a time wasn't very pro-town and was worth questioning at the least.
penguin your feeble attempts at appearing intelligent are seriously only coming across as a confusing mess
try to tone it down, please

don't analyze my play. it will be way over your head. thanks.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #943 (isolation #66) » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:43 am

In post 930, Lord Mhork wrote:I still have ghostlin pegged as probably town, though, CDB, but I just don't know.

How? Why? Why?

Why?

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #944 (isolation #67) » Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:11 am

VOTE: penguin_alien

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #949 (isolation #68) » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:26 am

In post 946, Ghostlin wrote:Oh, shut up. You've been glued on my ass since Day 2 and yet haven't even been arsed to make a vote. You're even voting PA right now INSTEAD of me.

Don't be ridiculous. I wanted you dead yesterday and voted to that effect. Fuzzy followed me onto it and agreed with me, so you don't get to pretend that my case didn't make any sense. I'm on record today as saying that I do not understand how this game makes sense without both you and penguin being scum but the rest of the players seem more interested in starting with penguin, so fine, we'll start with penguin. It doesn't matter.

Mhork: HOW DO YOU THINK THIS GUY IS TOWN

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #952 (isolation #69) » Wed Jul 10, 2013 5:53 am

In post 950, Ghostlin wrote:your evidence that people are convinced I'm scum.

I'm not saying "people are convinced you're scum" because if they were we'd be lynching you today (or, ideally, ages ago). I'm saying it's not weird that I think you're scum - other people did to the point where we nearly lynched you on Day 1 and that Fuzzy was happy to agree with me later on - so you acting as if my continued suspicion of you is somehow unreasonable is ridiculous.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #960 (isolation #70) » Sat Jul 13, 2013 4:39 am

Yeah so can we get a hammer please

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #976 (isolation #71) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 9:53 am

Sorry, but hahahahahahaha! I was absolutely bricking it about which mason to kill. Was very worried about our ability to mislynch Amrun for the win.

Hooray! I'm glad we won this game; we put a lot of work into it. If only we'd killed a mason last night, we could have had it perfectly.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #977 (isolation #72) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 9:54 am

Yeah, p_a's rolecopping was

sublime

. We probably would have been screwed on day play if we hadn't picked out the right people.

Nexus, thanks a lot for modding this. I enjoyed it very much.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #979 (isolation #73) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 9:55 am

In post 972, BROseidon wrote:And this is what happens when we don't lynch the obvious scum right away..

And I was trying

so hard

to get you guys to let me bus Ghostlin.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #981 (isolation #74) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:02 am

In post 978, Lord Mhork wrote:

I don't like lovers. Not even a little.

I think, given your roles' true natures, you should have revealed it when we massclaimed and called for a no lynch. You were the obvious kills after a penguin lynch.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #983 (isolation #75) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:11 am

In post 982, BROseidon wrote:pedit: How would a no-lynch have helped at that point? Town would have still lost.

Oh, yeah, good point.

ChannelDelibird · Post Post #993 (isolation #76) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:38 am

Just to make it easier

There's a lot of it to read!