Newbie 1388 Nexlexia Game Over

[yessiree]

Hi everyone, I'm one of the newbie players, you can call me Y since no one else starts with that letter.

VOTE: Yessiree because you wanted to mod this game

I'm actually developing a game engine that automates the processes of mafia, so you can say I know exactly this game progresses


According to my calculations, there is about a 1 in 5 chance that our IC is scum
VOTE: Bcade

[yessiree]

According to my calculations, there is about a 1 in 5 chance that our IC is scum
VOTE: Bcade

There's actually a 2/9 chance--which is slightly better than 1 in 5!

Behold the power of mathematics!!

5 newbs, 3 SEs, and 1 IC; 7 towns, and 2 mafias.

Based on theory of probability distribution, the 2 mafia members could have a distribution as follows:

• 2 in newb
  
• 2 in SE
  
• 1 in newb, 1 in SE
  
• 1 in newb, 1 in IC
  
• 1 in SE, 1 in IC

If we were to calculate the probability of each instance, it will look like this

Code: Select all

2 in newb                 27.78%
2 in SE                   8.33%
1 in newb, 1 in SE        41.67%
1 in newb, 1 in IC        13.89%
1 in SE, 1 in IC          8.33%

Sample calculation

1 in newb, 1 in SE

Code: Select all

P = (1 C 5) * (1 C 3) / (2 C 9) = 15 / 36 = 41.67%

However, this tells us information about 2 people. Since we can only vote on one person at a time, we need to narrow it down. We do this by combining the results of our previous calculations, and calculating the probability of at least 1 person from the user groups is the mafia.

• 
  At least 1 person from the newbs is mafia
  combining the results, this is a 83.34% chance
  
  
• 
  At least 1 person from the SE is mafia
  58.33% chance
  
  
• 
  IC is the mafia
  22.22% chance

If you're thinking random voting one of the newbs is the most logical choice, you'd be wrong. Here is why:

There are 5 newbs, by randomly choosing one, your chance of being correct is 83.34% / 5 = 16.67%.
Similarly, there are 3 SEs, by randomly choosing one, there is a 19.44% of being correct.
However, since there is only 1 IC, your chance of being correct stands at 22.22%.

[yessiree]

So, gene, why did you refuse to CONFESS?

I'm a pretty serious person. I rarely ever joke around. very logical. a part of that makes me a really bad liar. but also just a really unfunny person. So my point is, I tend to ignore unseriousness like unserious questions.

This game is filled with lies, you are going to have a bad time

[yessiree]

some maths what i snipped

The percentages may work out that you're more likely to vote scum if you randomvote the IC but what are the chances that an IC will be flustered or give a noticeable reaction to a random vote, knowing to expect them, rather than a newer player who could be caught flat-footed and panic when they get a vote (assuming that the vote is given at least a vague illusion of seriousness)?

You are right about them being battle-hardened, but filtering out the possibility that they are scum, as early as possible, would benefit the town.

On the other hand, IF they were scum, then making it more apparent as early as possible, would also benefit the town.

[yessiree]

Are you mafia gene?

That was actually what I wanted to ask too, but then I thought I'd want to hear from more people.

[yessiree]

Yessiree, what do you think of Bacde's vote?

I was just something I came up with in the shower, I didn't expect that to do anything, just a opener.

[yessiree]

@Bcade

THe reason I'm not voting for gene is because I want to hear from more people first.

What I think for your vote:
If you are town, then it's good pressure.
If you are scum, then it's a good way to show everyone you are scum-hunting.
Either way I can't jump to conclusions right now.

As for the last question, it was just some random stuff I came up with in the shower.

[yessiree]

So, gene, why did you refuse to CONFESS?

I'm a pretty serious person. I rarely ever joke around. very logical. a part of that makes me a really bad liar. but also just a really unfunny person. So my point is, I tend to ignore unseriousness like unserious questions.

are you talking about the "are you mafia" thing. yeah, that doesn't count, that wasn't serious.

Hmmm............

[yessiree]

VOTE: gene

If you are not mafia, then you don't have to make yourself not seem like mafia at all

[yessiree]

Hi all, looks like I'm late to the party!
VOTE: yessirree
Bring up the maths and statistics a bunch which implies that behaviouraly analysis is secondary.
Puts gene at L-1 without even mentioning it, clearly just jumping on the bandwagon.
I agree that gene's squirmishness is pretty scummy, but yessirree's vote makes me think gene's just lynchbait.

On a scale of 1 to 10, what's your mafia read on gene and me? (10 being mafia for sure)

[yessiree]

@gene

No you are not on a hammer, doctorpepper switched his vote on me. here is a summary of votes so far

Code: Select all

gene1991 		- channeldelibird
yessiree 		- doctorpepper
gene1991 		- bcade
bcade 			- yessiree
gene1991 		- doctorpepper
gene1991 		- yessiree
channel 		 - BB
yessiree 		- doctorpepper
yessiree 		- jkmatthews


gene1991 		- channel, bcade, yessiree
yessiree 		- jkmatthews, doctorpepper
channel        - BB

abstaining	  - gene1991, rikablue, nobodyspecial

[yessiree]

@nobody special

I take it you are leaning towards a scum read on me because I'm using stats to avoid scum-hunting?

Have you actually read all of my posts before jumping to that conclusion? Seems a pretty cheap read to me.

@JkMathews,

I see you are planning out the lynching ahead of time already, eh? Easy-peasy, lynch and kill for the win right?

[yessiree]

@Bob

why are you staying on voting on channel?

[yessiree]

yessirree, yes I have read your posts. If you promise to refrain from ever mentioning math or stats again, I promise to try and imagine you as town.

I can't promise you anything, and you don't have to promise me anything too. seriously, that's what girls do in grade school

Also, you can treat me as whatever you want, but it better be based off sound evidence.

[yessiree]

@nobody special:

haha, nice try, but I know the handyman is a member of the mafia! my sarcasm meter can stay broken until he is lynched.

[yessiree]

@Rikablu

I hammered gene because of an inconsistency in his words. And you can see, doctor immediately lifted that hammer.

and for your information, a hammer on someone means putting him 1 vote away from being lynched. basically L-1 = hammer

[yessiree]

Can we please lynch yessiree?

curious as to why

your claims are literally one matchstick away from crumbling down

[yessiree]

Please scratch #post 79, I was being stupid.

"A hammer is a vote on someone which results in the majority needed to lynch them. Once the hammer vote is placed, the game moves into Twilight until the mod posts the death scene. The player who has been hammered is considered beyond salvation as of the moment the hammering vote has been placed; barring the influence of a role like a Governor nothing will stop them from getting lynched. Many mods allow hammered players to post in Twilight but some do not." - Wiki

[yessiree]

Can I get a quick answer to Post 75, yess?

@Rikablu

I hammered gene because of an inconsistency in his words. And you can see, doctor immediately lifted that hammer.

[yessiree]

@Rikablu

It will be faster for us to reply if you would quote the previous posts, so we don't have to go back to re-read.

I assume you are referring to post #45, I read it, and it didn't change my mind.

[yessiree]

@JKM

at post #41 I was one nail away from voting on him, and #43 was the last nail. so I suspect him on both reasons

[yessiree]

Hi all, looks like I'm late to the party!
VOTE: yessirree
Bring up the maths and statistics a bunch which implies that behaviouraly analysis is secondary.
Puts gene at L-1 without even mentioning it, clearly just jumping on the bandwagon.
I agree that gene's squirmishness is pretty scummy, but yessirree's vote makes me think gene's just lynchbait.

I still believe this is jumping to conclusions, maybe you should get your sarcasm meter checked too.

[yessiree]

Look how much you're focussing on my vote on you, there's absolutely no pressure on you...

I'm don't think your vote is valid because your reasoning behind it is flawed. I don't focus on votes, I try to make sense of the logic.

[yessiree]

my vote on gene does look immensely opportunistic, but I would've voted on him regardless of how many votes he had on him at the time.

And I think "logical" would be a better choice of word instead of "unbiased"; no one can stay unbiased, but we can attempt to stay logical.

[yessiree]

So... you agree that your vote looks opporunistic, but it's illogical for me to vote you for an ooportunistic-looking vote? Forgive my confusion...

The way you arrived at your conclusion from your reason showed a lack of consideration.

Hi all, looks like I'm late to the party!
VOTE: yessirree
Bring up the maths and statistics a bunch which implies that behaviouraly analysis is secondary.
Puts gene at L-1 without even mentioning it, clearly just jumping on the bandwagon.
I agree that gene's squirmishness is pretty scummy, but yessirree's vote makes me think gene's just lynchbait.

You jumped to conclusion that I implied that behavioral analysis is secondary.
You jumped to conclusion that I voted gene without mentioning it, jumping on the bandwagon, when I had good reason to do so.

Hence why I don't think your vote is valid.

[yessiree]

VOTE: Unvote

I'm gonna ease off the pressure on gene, I don't want an insta

[yessiree]

I feel sorry for whoever has to catch up with what is essentially our dialogue, but

So... you agree that your vote looks opporunistic, but it's illogical for me to vote you for an ooportunistic-looking vote? Forgive my confusion...

The way you arrived at your conclusion from your reason showed a lack of consideration.

I see you making a vote that I think is opportunistic and just trying to get on a bandwagon, and I'm meant to think "oh well it may be innocent, so I'm not going to worry about it"? That's just not how this game is played...

[

Hi all, looks like I'm late to the party!
VOTE: yessirree
Bring up the maths and statistics a bunch which implies that behaviouraly analysis is secondary.
Puts gene at L-1 without even mentioning it, clearly just jumping on the bandwagon.
I agree that gene's squirmishness is pretty scummy, but yessirree's vote makes me think gene's just lynchbait.

You jumped to conclusion that I implied that behavioral analysis is secondary.
You jumped to conclusion that I voted gene without mentioning it, jumping on the bandwagon, when I had good reason to do so.

Hence why I don't think your vote is valid.

I jumped to the conclusion that you implied something...? That's not how implication works. The words you said have an implication. By the definition of imply.
I witnessed the fact that you voted gene at the time you did, and the reasons you gave. Those things are fact. The only conclusion I reached is that there could easily be scummy motivation behind the vote, and so I voted you. I really don't understand how you can call that illogical.

It's perfectly fine to vote on me if you think I'm being an opportunistic voter. Hence why I'm not nitpicking on doctorpepper.

However, although you had a logical motive,

Bring up the maths and statistics a bunch which implies that behaviouraly analysis is secondary.
Puts gene at L-1 without even mentioning it, clearly just jumping on the bandwagon.

the way in which you worded your motive wasn't as logical. "Bring up the maths and statistics a bunch which implies that behaviouraly analysis is secondary." I really hope you were being sarcastic with this statement, as behavioral analysis is KEY to progress through a game, it's what we play for; I don't know why people would play this game otherwise. "Puts gene at L-1 without even mentioning it...", was there a need to state? I trust you can read as well as doctorpepper?

[yessiree]

Anyone else noticed Nobody Special has not posted a serious comment, other than the one where he randomly pointed finger to someone without even giving out the reasons?

[yessiree]

Wow ok, so after thinking gene was just lynchbait, I'm pretty happy to call gene scum now.
Post 106 is bizarre. Your labels for people don't match your reads, and you start it by saying "I'm ignoring you so that I look town". That just hurts.

It's perfectly fine to vote on me if you think I'm being an opportunistic voter. Hence why I'm not nitpicking on doctorpepper.

"Bring up the maths and statistics a bunch which implies that behaviouraly analysis is secondary." I really hope you were being sarcastic with this statement, as behavioral analysis is KEY to progress through a game, it's what we play for; I don't know why people would play this game otherwise. "Puts gene at L-1 without even mentioning it...", was there a need to state? I trust you can read as well as doctorpepper?

I'm confused... are you arguing for me now?

Don't be confused, I will keep attacking these statements from you until you admit they are just bad statements.

"Bring up the maths and statistics a bunch which implies that behaviouraly analysis is secondary.
Puts gene at L-1 without even mentioning it, clearly just jumping on the bandwagon."

[yessiree]

Welcome Bob, what do you think of the gene wagon.

The prospect of Gene being quiet is great,

but I don't think he's a member of the Mafia.

My vote on Channel is serious.

Why not?

... I agree yessirree is suspicious and I'm totally down for brutally murdering him ...

Did you just declare your night kill target?

[yessiree]

VOTE: Nobody Special

This is a serious vote, explain yourself now.

[yessiree]

@Nobody Special,

Could you explain, as someone who's very experienced in this game, why you haven't been actively scum-hunting and giving your inputs?

Your reasoning behind the FoS on Rikablu?

[yessiree]

@Nobody Special

So do you believe voting on Rika is a better choice than voting on gene then? Do you expect you can get a slip out of Rika just by your vote on him?

[yessiree]

Bcade is too early to tell for me. I'm more suspicious of nobody special for his intention to equivocate.

[yessiree]

Forgot to add. Yessirree, why do you question JK's vote on you but not mine when we had similar reasons.

Gene your posts made me facepalm. One, crimes? Rape? What place do they have in this game. Two, mafia do worry about getting caught, thats why they make their posts cautiously, because you look for a mafioso through 2 things. a) his posts motivation and b) his scumminess. Words are the only tool you have in this game, which is why maf should be cautious.

And slips exist! Slips are something the mafia accidentally says and they get caught by town for it, like if I was mafia, then I'd say something stupid that makes it obvious I was mafia.

Bacde, look at yessiree now. Or rather look at gene's list and his interactions with yes.

Maybe you didn't read everything, but as I've said before, I DID NOT focus on the votes, JKM's jumping to conclusions just seemed rather ridiculous for me to accept. If you go back to re-read everything you will see this, I don't have explain myself twice.

On the other hand, after I put gene at L-1, you immediately unvoted. The interesting part is, after that, you vanished out in the background after. There is a possibility that, if gene is scum, you are his partner. You went into lurking to see how things unfold.

Next point, gene's list of reads does make it seem that he and I are scum partners. However, how much do you give credit to that? You are an SE, and it seems you are willing to lynch someone based on a scrambled list of reads from a flattered newb. The fact that you repeatedly state that you are comfortable with lynching either him or me, is a perfect distraction to get the center of attention from you, isn't it?

In addition, with only half of the players actively posting, trying to push a lynch without considering as many opinions as possible, makes me more suspicious of you. Bcade is not affected by this logic because he is the first to vote on gene, and he has a much more sound reason to keep it that way.

I will be watching you.

[yessiree]

^Why though? You have to give your reasons to support your claims.

[yessiree]

^Why though? You have to give your reasons to support your claims.

[yessiree]

So many "maybe"s and question marks in your last post. Starting to feel uncertain, are you? Trying to word everything carefully in a question format so you are held less accountable for what you've said. I suspect anyone and everyone equally, and the more information I have, the better I can sort through the logic. If you actually READ all of my last post, you will note that I didn't actually label you as scum, I simply put the possibility out there. However, from the way you responded to my post, I'm starting to grow more suspicious of you. It looks like you are the one who jumped out of his chair and went "holy shit, how did this guy know?" And then you proceeded to write me 2 garbage paragraphs that didn't make a single logical statement.

And for your information, I read all of your arguments, but it is YOU who didn't read all of my posts.

Your vote switch on me, on the surface, looks like a good move in general.

Almost too good.

I voted him because I sensed gene's scum slip, whether that was indeed a scum slip or just inexperienced play, I was determined to put my vote on him to find out. It doesn't hurt the town to lynch someone like that.

So of course I'm not gonna sit idly and let you and JKM plot my lynch on day 2. That models the standard scum play; by making someone else the "common enemy". In this case that "common enemy" is me.

But this is a survival game.

And I am town.

So I will not be lynched today, I will not be lynched tomorrow, and I will not be lynched on any day thereafter. You can waste your vote on a townie if you like, or you can get off your lazy ass do some actual scum-hunting.

[yessiree]

"Lol, you actually thought those weren't rhetorical questions? (In case you didnt know, this was also a rhetorical question, L2R). You think I was asking you if I was online 24/7? Wow. Misrep."

If that is a rhetorical question, then you just said I thought those were rhetorical questions. Then the part in brackets was totally unnecessary; it also contradicts your first rhetorical question, btw. If the next sentence is a rhetorical question, then you said you weren't asking me if you were online 24/7. Of course I don't expect anyone to stay online 24/7. But how is that a misrep? Getting too defensive there, are you?

"Ironic "get of your ass and learn to scumhunt" statement. Ironic because it came from the person who decided that statistics are a way to determine if people were scum. Misrep."

You need to learn to read, quote me where I said that because I didn't. Now, if you can actually comprehend anything, then it's not hard to realize that I've only have 2 posts about stats. One of which was my opening post, and stats was just a way for me to start the RVS when there is absolutely no information whatsoever. The second one was the long post about some math that I've prepared beforehand; it was never intended to determine any role. Compare that to how many posts I have in this thread.

""didnt label you as scum" while saying that if gene was scum, then I was scum. That is a label. Then later on you say that me and JKM are planning to lynch the common enemy, which is a scum strategy, so you lied you are actually calling me scum. Just out it and say it. "

You are wrong again. I did not label you as scum. The "if (condition), then (result)" state is a way to state a possibility, not a fact. Google it, learn it, and use it. That is NOT a label, that is stating a possibility. So I did NOT lie about you being scum, again, I simply stated the possibility.

"Maybe you should get off your ass and scumhunt."

I have been scum-hunting from the start, certainly I've been doing it more so than what you have done, but it doesn't help when there's not much content.

[yessiree]

It is a survival game for both parties, in my opinion. I want to survive and win.

[yessiree]

@Bob,

Bob, you need to do your homework before spouting nonsense.

Go back and re-read every post from nobody, from #98, his FoS is Rikablu, not gene, not me. And he did not give reasons why Rikablu is his FoS.

Therefore I am correct, and you are wrong.

[yessiree]

If people can do that, then that's cool.

Still, I feel like dying to prove one's innocence should be the last resort. Should always fight with logic first.

[yessiree]

If me dying will help town catch scum faster, then that's fine by me.

I just want to be alive when town wins, because there will be a greater sense of accomplishment that way.

[yessiree]

^So you are saying I'm wrongfully accusing someone for posting 1 serious comment, then proceed to not participating as much as possible in scum-hunting?

PS: that post looks semi-serious at best.

PSS: I did say NS hadn't explained why he pointed fingers to Rikablu, #114, "he randomly pointed finger to someone without even giving out the reasons?"

[yessiree]

That's what I've been trying to do all this time. But not much is happening right now. People aren't posting as much as I'd like them to. So I'm doing my best to try and pry from those lurkers.

On that thought, ***@gene***, I want you to make a vote decision on your next post.

[yessiree]

I'm so confused as to why everyone is attracted to my stats posts like flies. Look at how many posts I have in this thread. Then count how many posts I have about stats. Then note when and where said posts are. I think using that to label me as anti-town is ridiculous, and it shows the lack of motivation to find better reasons.

And to answer your confusion Rika, I am an aggressive poster. When I see something that clearly goes against logic, I will get to the bottom of it. I don't think the game has progressed to the point where you can safely trust anyone YET. The approach I took then is to question everyone, especially their motivations to vote someone.

There are too many lurkers, it's slowing down the pace of this game. I think that's what hinders scum-hunt the most. Usually the scums would benefit from this since they have the advantage in information, and they are perfectly fine with keeping that gap.

Nonetheless, we still have more than a week to sort this out, so I'm fine with waiting for some of these lurkers to post for now.

[yessiree]

@gene, "If you need to get the mod's attention, either PM me, or bold the text you wish to draw to my attention."

[yessiree]

^EBWOP "If you need to get the mod's attention, either PM (mod), or bold the text you wish to draw to (mod's) attention."

[yessiree]

I've read some of NS's recent game posts histories. Most of his posts are under two sentences long.

VOTE: UNVOTE

Un-voting him for now.

However, NS, if you're town, you don't necessarily seem too eager doing your share of scum-hunting.

[yessiree]

Bob, would you like to get lynched?

[yessiree]

Bacde, the difference between Bob and I is that: I want to be alive knowing that I would still win if I die, where Bob states he doesn't know the

exact

win condition. Whether that was a scumslip or not, I'm not sure. But let's see how he defends himself.

[yessiree]

@Mod, in case you missed it, gene needs a replacement

I request replacement.

[yessiree]

Yes. You do realize that being alive as town means that scum think youre an asset to them or lynch bait.

Only realized that after Bacde told me about it.

Anyway, I'd like to see if Bob can squirm out of this, but I dont see it happening. You cant just say "I didnt read my role PM properly" to explain how you didnt know the town win condition.

I do wish CDB would come back as he promised. NS, do you still think Rika is scum after that?

On that note, JKM has disappeared for more than 2 days now...

[yessiree]

@Bob, do you still think I'm scum?

[yessiree]

The first one was just trying to get a reaction out of doctorpepper so I can make a judgement on him.

As for the second one, what if I also didn't know that in order to win as town, I needed to be alive? Your defending yourself is also based on fact that you want to win by staying alive. But after what Bacde said, if you're a too good of a scum-hunter, your death isn't necessarily a bad thing, because your posts will be considered coming from a town's perspective. After that, I wouldn't mind dying anymore, but what about

you

? Do you think your death would be of any worth to the town?

[yessiree]

[quote="In post 171So of course I'm not gonna sit idly and let you and JKM plot my lynch on day 2. That models the standard scum play; by making someone else the "common enemy". In this case that "common enemy" is me.

Do you suspect JKM/pepper as scum team. If so, why didn't you vote any of them?

Voting for someone that's hiding in the shadows.

Unvote; Vote ChannelDelibird

[/quote]

No, I don't suspect JKM/pepper team. Not before JKM posts anything new.

[yessiree]

EBWOP: ^err, Pebro forgot to close the opening quote tag properly

my last post includes this and this only "No, I don't suspect JKM/pepper team. Not before JKM posts anything new."

UNVOTE: for good measure

[yessiree]

@Mod, I think doctorpepper has his last vote on Bob

[yessiree]

posted just 10 minutes after bring prodded eh?

so, what's sup channeldelibird

[yessiree]

@ChannelDelibird, are you that confident you can figure out Bob's alignment form his next post?

Perhaps you knew from the start?

[yessiree]

Bacde, you're a good scum teller, your thoughts on the bob lynch?

[yessiree]

There is no need to exaggerate anything. If you've got something to say, say it as it is, because I don't think your version of that's what DoctorPepper said is accurate.

[yessiree]

Yo I just realized something

Nobody Special is TOO DANGEROUS TO BE KEPT ALIVE, he needs to die.

6-1 as scum, 5-10 as town, yeah we're lynching nobody special

VOTE: Nobody Special

btw Bob is town

unvote

Vote: Bi-Bob

Yep, that's a scumsllip.

Pebro: CDB usually is much more active. I've seen experienced players (not necessarily CDB), when they have newbie scumpartners, who tend to lurk and not call too much attention to themselves.

You know, I seriously hate doing this, and I really try hard NOT to do this, but I'm calling the scum team as Bob and CDB right now.

Convince me otherwise, guys.

[yessiree]

if NS is scum, we are all fucked

if NS is town, he will be useless anyway

plus
NS jumping on Bob's wagon while saying "Yep, that's a scumslip", too opportunistic, too little consideration

either way it won't be a bad lynch

also @ Bacde, I NEVER jumped on Bob

[yessiree]

Pebro, you have a brain, and working fingers, use them.

use the site wiki, use the internet, use google, but don't use PEOPLE.

MAKE SOME FREAKING DECISIONS. DON'T JUST SIT ON THE FENCE. DON'T EXPECT OTHER PEOPLE TO DO THE WORK FOR YOU EITHER.

[yessiree]

Dude no,

IF A PLAYER IS BAD, THEN YOU LYNCH HIM. SIMPLE?

NS is a bad town player, you lynch him. simple.

[yessiree]

Ok Bacde, who is scum?

If you've got a better target, I'll reconsider.

[yessiree]

your wiki was TL;DR

BUT THAT DOESN'T MATTER,

TOWN, IF YOU WANT TO WIN YOU BETTER LYNCH THIS NS.

[yessiree]

Why, exactly?

if NS is scum, we are all fucked

if NS is town, he will be useless anyway

plus
NS jumping on Bob's wagon while saying "Yep, that's a scumslip", too opportunistic, too little consideration

either way it won't be a bad lynch

also @ Bacde, I NEVER jumped on Bob

[yessiree]

WTF? WTF? UNFOUNDED? HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT?

Welcome Bob, what do you think of the gene wagon.

Sidenote, gene please get an avatar. It helps us distinguish you from everyone else. Like we'll know its you with out looking at your name

Kay. do you like it?

Yes. Nice ass.

Welcome Bob, what do you think of the gene wagon.

The prospect of Gene being quiet is great,

but I don't think he's a member of the Mafia.

My vote on Channel is serious.

Why not?



Currently I'm comfortable with lynching either yessirree or gene. Not voting till I see a VC, though.

Going with the flow, trying to fit it.

Just to be pedantic, his vote is valid. Whether or not you think it's a

good

vote is, perhaps, what I think is at question.

FoS: Rikablu

It would be a vote, but I'm too lazy to count, and I don't want to hammer.

Too lazy to count votes, when Rika has ZERO vote on him. Trying to gain town credits.

I honestly can't recall why I suspected Rika. It's probably something I thought I saw in post 96. But let's do this and see if he slips again:

Vote: Rika

gene, I was basically telling you that scumslips do indeed exist, and if you believe they don't, you're as deluded as if you also believed in magical fictional characters.


Also, yessiree, I've been scumhunting. At least I don't quote statistics.

LOL votes on Rika for some reason, but doesn't tell exactly what.

On a separate note: NS, is it your nature as a player to post compressed and short texts? I am under the impression that you might be the type to keep your thoughts mostly to yourself until it's necessary to push players towards your line of thinking. I don't see anything wrong with that, but it's difficult to get a read on you without knowing for sure. Assuming that this belief is correct, I think you're town on the basis that each time you posted, it's presented some form of constructive argument. I even consider the vote on me to be constructive, because frankly speaking no one else has voiced an opinion on my actions, and that's either weak, lazy, or overpowering fixation on gene at the time. On the other hand, if your concise nature isn't part of your standard play, my followup question would be 'why is this different', and what's otherwise a town read becomes a lot weaker.

This is me. I have a sort of reputation for being hard to read, but this is how I naturally play. And to answer the next question, yes, I tend to play this way regardless of alignment. I've somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 games onsite, feel free to read some.


On another note, I heartily agree with Bacde. CDB is not being his usual self, to memory.

VOTE: OMG CDB

LOL jumps on the CDB inactivity wagon.

unvote

Vote: Bi-Bob

Yep, that's a scumsllip.

Pebro: CDB usually is much more active. I've seen experienced players (not necessarily CDB), when they have newbie scumpartners, who tend to lurk and not call too much attention to themselves.

LOL jumping on the Bob's "scumslip" wagon.



YO WTF BOB? What did you say?

[yessiree]

I used stats,

AND

reasons from my last post to push the lynch on NS

BECAUSE

using pure stats only

IS

the dumbest thing you can do

OK?

[yessiree]

What's up guys? Have you made up your mind yet?

[yessiree]

^LOL

so JKM, who has been more useful in this game, NS or yessiree?

The answer is yessiree.

[yessiree]

LOL okay. What's your scum reads then ace detective JKMatthews?

[yessiree]

yo wassup ace detective JKMatthews? I thought you were scum-hunting like no tomorrow?

[yessiree]

Pedro, what are you doing dude?

Look at how many votes are on DoctorPepper.

0

Your vote will make him twitch a muscle?

No.


Get on the glorious NS wagon.

We need to put pressure on him.

We are lynching us a scum today.

[yessiree]

Yo Bacde, if you've been scum-hunting since the start of the game and then some lurker goes like

"You've done absolute nothing of use"

how are you gonna response to that?

I lol'ed so hard I decided I'm not even gonna dignify with an answer.

[yessiree]

^It's post like this with so much attentional and interpretive bias that it's laughable

I'll consider your posts serious when the degree you examine evidence and the significance you assign to evidence aren't affected anymore.

Think about what you're gonna say, and put your money where your mouth is.

[yessiree]

Fuck it, I wanted to avoid a wall, but w/e wall incoming.

Okay JKM, your answer was unexpected. Here, let me do some behavioral analysis so KING JKMatthews can deem my humble existence useful.

Sure, I brought up stats to push NS's case, but let me say it again: Stats is my bitch, it will be useful when I deem it to; and when it doesn't, I kick it to the side.


For the actual case, I suspect NS based on 3 main reasons.

1 - He shows no real effort to scum hunt
I don't care about his playstyle, I don't care how many games he's played, I don't care what kind of a player he is. But, these kind of posts are not helpful for town in any way

Welcome Bob, what do you think of the gene wagon.

Sidenote, gene please get an avatar. It helps us distinguish you from everyone else. Like we'll know its you with out looking at your name

Kay. do you like it?

Yes. Nice ass.

Welcome Bob, what do you think of the gene wagon.

The prospect of Gene being quiet is great,

but I don't think he's a member of the Mafia.

My vote on Channel is serious.

Why not?



Currently I'm comfortable with lynching either yessirree or gene. Not voting till I see a VC, though.

yessirree, yes I have read your posts. If you promise to refrain from ever mentioning math or stats again, I promise to try and imagine you as town.

I don't think there's any such thing as scum slips.

Do you believe in Santa Claus?

The Easter Bunny?

The Tooth Fairy?

You're doing it wrong.

2 - If the first suspicion is true, then my second suspicion holds more value. He will jump on the most popular bandwagon, and he will give 1 or 2 quick explanations to get by.

Take a look at post #274


3 - He makes no efforts whatsoever to defend himself, ever since I attempted to start a wagon on him. He has been posting in other sections of the forum, but he has made 0 posts in this thread.



Now, as for you JKMAtthews,

Regarding the NS case, you seem to have fallen to TWO Confirmation Biases:

1) Attentional Bias - This bias affects the degree to which you remember and examine evidence

2) Interpretive Bias - This bias affects the significance you assign to the evidence you examine


From the way you suspect my case on him

Ok so had a quick read just now... how the hell is yessiree still alive after that NS vote?
yessiree's

entire

play has been
1) Here's some statistics for RVS
2) I agree that it's possible my activities are scummy, but anybody who thinks I'm scum because of it is using bad logic and is therefore scum
3) Vote NS because of statistics, and voting bad players is helpful for town because ???
If that's not scum, I don't know what is...

Your statement right here, screams scum.
If NS flips scum, you are his partner.

[yessiree]

DAMMIT I GOT CAUGHT!

GOOD JOB GUYS!!!!!

VOTE: yessiree

[yessiree]

Crap, I defended Bob

Fuck.

[yessiree]

No problem,

NS will win the game for me.

This should be an easy game ;D

[yessiree]

I'm trying to look townish.

I SWEAR THIS IS A SCUMSLIP! I SWEAR!

[yessiree]

I would imagine NS to be a man with gray hair, sitting in front of the monitor, reading some mafiascum and smoking a pipe. On his table, sits a delicate pottery tea kettle, slowly emitting steam from its spout.

Don't be fooled though, for he is a master ruseman, and he will

pull the strings

.

But, I know he won't vote me; he won't let

the fool

die so easily.

[yessiree]

UNVOTE: yessiree

Okay, CBD/NS scum team. Calling it.

VOTE: Nobody Special

[yessiree]

lol i'm an idiot, a clever idiot~

p-edit: L-2 and L-1 on my wagon

YOLO

[yessiree]

LOL Bacde, how is NS town?

I almost can't count with my fingers how many times he's jumped from wagon to wagon.

I'm willing to step back and re-read other people.

^also, mission accomplished \^o^/

[yessiree]

Bacde, after reading your opinion I decided to re-read everything NS has posted so far, and tried to follow his train of thoughts.

I'm calling the scum team as Bob and CDB right now.

Still ready to hang yessiree.

LOL NOPE CAN'T DO IT.

[yessiree]

I have a town read on Bob.

You have a strong town read on NS.

NS has a scum read on Bob.

NS wants me DEAD.

Let's say I get lynched and flip town, how will that change things?

[yessiree]

This is the Bob "slip" you guys have been tunnelling on

I didn't know the exact winning condition of a townie until you stated it

Note the use of the word "exact", as in, he though there was something extra that was not included in the initial role PM. This "extra' piece of information was brought to light by my previous statements where I insisted on wanting to be alive.

When I made those statements, I KNEW I didn't need to be alive in order for the town to win, but I wanted to be alive nonetheless. In my statements, I did not acknowledge this, which made Bob think that a townie would only win when he is still alive at endgame.

Looking at the role PM for a VT. It states that it's town win when all threats to the town have been eliminated. It doesn't state anything about staying alive to GET THE WIN as an individual player. This, along with the fact that he was under the misconception that a townie would only get the win by staying alive, made Bob say that he did not know the exact winning condition of a townie.

Again, not the use of the word "exact"; he knew the winning condition, but he gained a better understanding upon knowing a townie would still win after dying.

[yessiree]

EBWOP: last line "Again, (note) the use"

[yessiree]

It'll make the town a lot more quiet. And we'll have less stretched arguments on lynching someone.

what is this

i dont even

[yessiree]

^yfw NS flips scum

priceless

[yessiree]

I'll commit seppuku

[yessiree]

Bacde, are you a female IRL? Because your posts sound very feminine.

[yessiree]

LOL you can't see things like how a master sees, stand aside. Bacde's gender is VITAL to determining who are the scums.

[yessiree]

It's cool that CDB wants to lynch me. I'm going to wait for another vote on me before I make a serious comment.

[yessiree]

LOL this is PRO scum strat

look at how scared some of you are at putting down the L-1 vote

I'm like, so safe right now

[yessiree]

Okay, bad diction there, maybe not scared, let's try hesitant

look at how hesitant some of you are at putting down the L-1 vote

[yessiree]

^LOL you already voted, I'm still at L-2

[yessiree]

@CDB: I know whatever I'm doing is sketchy as fuck, but trust me I know this will benefit town in the end

[yessiree]

Okay, so far four people have voted on me

JKMatthews, CDB, NS, Pebro

These people are confirmed town on my list

Why?

Because if you still don't want me dead after my sketchy as fuck random shit, you don't want to win as town. If you see scrubby shit like yessiree, as a town player, you fucking jump on his wagon and tell him to GTFO.

Only scums imo would be willing to let this wacky shit continue, because they think I'll make an easy wagon on any day. So they are saving this easy wagon for later.

[yessiree]

w/e I'm just sharing my reads

NO NEED TO BE SO HOSTILE

Bacde you're on my watch list now btw

[yessiree]

p-edit: when I start being a retard LOL

Sometimes you just gotta YOLO

and think of the consequences afterwards

At least I've got the town's blood pumpin' (especially NS, huehue) THAT'S BETTER THAN NOTHING RIGHT?

shit, I'm no sherlock

[yessiree]

257

[yessiree]

easy lynches are too mainstream

style points: -9

[yessiree]

claim: VT

[yessiree]

You're not nearly as clever as you think you are.

[yessiree]

for fucks sake, go ahead, push this mislynch

Bob is town and he will get fucking mislynched D2

LOL I DON'T CARE ANYMORE ALL OF YOU TOWNS CAN GO DIE IN A HOLE

[yessiree]

HE'S TOO DUMB TO BE SCUM

[yessiree]

convince me Bob is scum then, because I'm not buying this "scumslip"

goddamiticantyellatbacde

[yessiree]

Oh really?

This is the Bob "slip" you guys have been tunnelling on

I didn't know the exact winning condition of a townie until you stated it

Note the use of the word "exact", as in, he though there was something extra that was not included in the initial role PM. This "extra' piece of information was brought to light by my previous statements where I insisted on wanting to be alive.

When I made those statements, I KNEW I didn't need to be alive in order for the town to win, but I wanted to be alive nonetheless. In my statements, I did not acknowledge this, which made Bob think that a townie would only win when he is still alive at endgame.

Looking at the role PM for a VT. It states that it's town win when all threats to the town have been eliminated. It doesn't state anything about staying alive to GET THE WIN as an individual player. This, along with the fact that he was under the misconception that a townie would only get the win by staying alive, made Bob say that he did not know the exact winning condition of a townie.

Again, not the use of the word "exact"; he knew the winning condition, but he gained a better understanding upon knowing a townie would still win after dying.

[yessiree]

Also you never suspected Bob or had voted him on account of his "slip"

dont fucken try to take towncred for something you didn't do

[yessiree]

K, I went back to ISO Bob AGAIN to triple check.

Other than being bad, and being too overly conscious of his little slip, he's been trying to analyze people in an effort to hunt scum. He's definitely above average in the amount of efforts put in to scum-hunt.

Yeah, lynching yessirree isn't the solution, finding him a psychiatrist is.

Also the fuck? fucken cheeky little bastard

[yessiree]

DoctorPepper, aside from Bob's "slip", why are you so sure he is scum?

[yessiree]

If you use chrome, I have cached copies from page 18

[yessiree]

view in new tab

[yessiree]

try this

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/8154/c2q.png

[yessiree]

Also, it is POSSIBLE that Yessiree and NS are both town. The inability of both of them to work with the group at large.

LOL this made me laugh, I was planning on a avatar bet with NS so he can have himself a manly man avatar.

But I know NS will chicken out anyways so...

[yessiree]

@Pebro post the html of OLD page 17 here and I will upload an image of the entire page

p-edit:

[yessiree]

NS called the team of CBD and Bob

DoctorPepper called the team of Titus(former Rikablu) and Bob

NS had a FoS on Rikablu at the start

DoctorPepper intended to hammer me but didn't after I claimed VT.


What if Bob flips town? Are we back to square one?

[yessiree]

If Bob flips town, we look to his strongest defenders as likely being scum.

Sorry I can't grasp the concept behind this statement, why would a scum go out of his way to defend a town?

[yessiree]

I actually thought rikablu was town, and I had a pretty good townread there, so I'm surprised by DrP's attack on titus and vice versa.

Hmm

hmmmmmmmm

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

VOTE: Yessiree

Let's see what happens here

WTF this makes no sense whatsoever

[yessiree]

What doesn't make sense about it?

IDK, at first I thought you were like "I'm confused why person A is arguing with person B, so I'll vote for person C instead", but then I had an AHA moment.

[yessiree]

What doesn't make sense about it?

IDK, at first I thought you were like "I'm confused why person A is arguing with person B, so I'll vote for person C instead", but then I had an AHA moment.

What is your aha moment?

Can you post your reads in case Dr. Pepper or someone else hammers to early?

If we are all smart, we can have the equivalent of last wills.

Titus, look at the duration I've been at L-1 before JKM unvoted.

I certainly think DoctorPepper has been over-reacting from the exchanges between him and you. Whether or not that's a scum-tell or over-confidence - I can't come to a conclusion yet because all them fucks sitting on my wagon are lurking.

And DoctorPepper, can you do a wall on your case on Titus/Bob team because the exchanges are scattered all over the place, would be good if you can organize it.

[yessiree]

Basically, here's the deal: NS and CDB won't play until I'm dead.

Like.

They refuse to give inputs.


Also @DoctorPepper, I don't really get your reasoning behind Titus's case.

If I understand correctly, your case on Titus started when she replaced Rikablu's scumread on Bob's slip with a null read. Then you thought she was scum because of the chainsaw. If my understanding is correct, then this is an act of scum-hunting, in the sense that she is voicing her opinion openly, without constraint. However, I will have to ISO Titus to confirm this.

Now, when you pointed out the Titus(Rikablu)/Bob team, I didn't think this was possible because of two reasons.

First, former Titus(Rikablu) was the first to notice Bob's slip and the first to vote on him. If Rikablu and Bob were the scum team, there is no reason to do this at D1. Certainly, if the lynch went through and Bob flipped scum, Rikablu would basically get the go-ahead town clear from every body. But, is Rikablu that confident that he can win against 7 town after that point? I don't think so.

Second, immediately after Titus replaced in. She flipped Rikablu's standpoint upside down, this was obvious to everyone. If Bob's lynch went through and Bob flipped scum, it's basically game-over. There is not a smart scum move. The smart scum move is going with the flow,

looking for a guilty and not defending "her partner"

and getting a lynch through.

Going to ISO Titus to get a feel again before I post anything else.

[yessiree]

HEY YOU FUCKS ON MY WAGON LISTEN UP:

WHOSE LYNCH WILL GIVE YOU MORE INFORMATION?

BOB OR YESSIREE?

BOB MADE A "SLIP"

NS THINKS BOB IS SCUM. DOCTORPEPPER THINKS BOB IS SCUM.
I, YESSIREE, THINK THAT IS NOT A SLIP. TITUS THINKS BOB IS NOT SCUM.
TITUS THINKS NS AND YESSIREE ARE OF OPPOSING FACTIONS.

CDB: "I DONT GIVE A SHIT HERPALURK"

[yessiree]

I'm asking my wagon whose lynch will be more beneficial to town. I think Bob's lynch will reveal the most information, what information will my lynch reveal?

Besides, I honestly don't care if I'm lynched today, in fact that will be quite an achievement, getting lynched D1 in my first game.

But let me remind you that, given the town PRs get unlucky at nights, we only get 2 mislynches. After that it's lylo on day 3 and lylo on day 4.

And @Titus, I don't value meta that much. I think it's better to treat everyone as strangers, but I havn't played enough to have a say anyways.

[yessiree]

Emotional play? NO GTFO.

[yessiree]

k fine. whatever information my lynch will reveal will get FUCKING REVEALED.

also is there a trophy or something if you get lynched on D1 CONSISTENTLY?

[yessiree]

What I meant by #525 is that this is bandit country, so you shoot anythin' that mooooves

[yessiree]

but really, I don't care if you kill me

[yessiree]

you forgot to change the votes on NS

[yessiree]

and DoctorPepper

[yessiree]

I mean the total votes on NS and DoctorPepper

[yessiree]

I made myself a bait

and NS jumped on it

[yessiree]

umm rope NS tomorrow

[yessiree]

Talk to me Titus, or we can chat

[yessiree]

Umm I don't have long, Nexus can be here any second to take my life

no walls, bullet points

[yessiree]

only townreads I have is bacde, JKM, Titus, and doctorpepper

everyone is scummy or herpalurking

[yessiree]

Also I stayed at L-1 for a week

post #384 was fake to test reactions

there is at least 1 scum riding on that wagon, this I'm sure

[yessiree]

yeah I have townreads on you and DoctorPepper. I think you guys are arguing over silly, minute details that isn't really gonna benefit the town in terms of scum-hunting. Try to broaden your view on the entire playing field, I think you both can do much better.

[yessiree]

so Bob is mafia

fuck me

[yessiree]

yeah, he/she owes me some answers

Bacde, are you a female IRL? Because your posts sound very feminine.

lol

not a chance I'm answering this