Newbie 1388 Nexlexia Game Over

[ChannelDelibird]

Hello! I'm ChannelDelibird - call me CDB, (almost) everyone else does. I'm one of the SE players in this game so I'm mainly just going to do what I would normally do as a representative sample of a random mafiascum player. I'll be happy to answer any questions, however, if Bacde, your resident IC, is afk or asleep or eaten by a bear.

Now then! VOTE: gene1991 CONFESS.

[ChannelDelibird]

Well, no, I can't decide to be typical. But I can be normal for me!

It's perfectly fine not to random vote, as long as you're making an effort to help us get the game going in another way. After all, that's why we "random" vote, as we've found over the years that that's been the most effective way of kicking things off - although, to be clear, nothing past your first vote should be random. I'm not a huge fan of calling it a "stage", personally, but that's not really very important.

So, gene, why did you refuse to CONFESS?

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm actually developing a game engine that automates the processes of mafia, so you can say I know exactly this game progresses

Excellent. Who do we end up lynching today and what will their role be revealed as?

[ChannelDelibird]

some maths what i snipped

The percentages may work out that you're more likely to vote scum if you randomvote the IC but what are the chances that an IC will be flustered or give a noticeable reaction to a random vote, knowing to expect them, rather than a newer player who could be caught flat-footed and panic when they get a vote (assuming that the vote is given at least a vague illusion of seriousness)?

[ChannelDelibird]

gene1991: There's been a few attempts to use a 'random question stage' instead but, in my experience, it usually leads to less discussion that's actually specific to the game in question. I've never tried it in a newbie game, though, so it might go better, but either way we're past the need for randomness by now. What do you think of Bacde's vote?

Yessiree, what do you think of Bacde's vote?

[ChannelDelibird]

I also now have a scumread on gene. He seems happiest engaging in theory discussion rather than repeated requests to engage with specific events in this game.

[ChannelDelibird]

I haven't seen you answer this despite more than one of us ask you about it.

So to start, I'm going to

VOTE: gene

despite him being an early townread of mine. What do you guys think of me voting for someone who I think is town?

gene1991: There's been a few attempts to use a 'random question stage' instead but, in my experience, it usually leads to less discussion that's actually specific to the game in question. I've never tried it in a newbie game, though, so it might go better, but either way we're past the need for randomness by now. What do you think of Bacde's vote?

[ChannelDelibird]

You're right, gene, I did miss your response in 27! I apologise. However, I'm going to keep my vote on you for the time being because you strike me as slightly panicking scum.

If you're town, though, the way to make us think you're not mafia is to do precisely the thing that you think you can't do in order to focus on looking town - specifically, help us find who the scum are if it's not you!

[ChannelDelibird]

Whoa! That exploded. I may or may not have wasted my day off playing Civ 5 but I'm going to read the last few pages in between games of Skype mafia.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hello. This is an example of how not to participate in Day 1 of a Newbie Game.

Don't be like me.

So yeah it turns out that Civilisation V is a time-sucker. However, I'm going to catch up on this game right now despite my 25%-awake state. Then I'll be ready to roar properly tomorrow! Again; don't be like me.

[ChannelDelibird]

The timing just worked out well on that. Nexus and I are on the same timezone, which probably helps. I'm mid-read, putting together a post of my thought processes as I get through the pages. Will be ready shortly.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'll highlight a few posts I found that stood out to me as I read through but I'll try to keep things concise. I hate reading walls and I hate making other people read walls from me - I'd rather not encourage you guys to write overly long catchup posts (SE tip: Don't put yourself in a position where you need to catch up!)

yessiree's post 67 gives me "you caught me for the wrong reason" scumvibes; it's been used to catch me out before. There's a confidence of "ha, they'll never get me like that" that suggests scum.

For the opposite reason, yessiree's post 102 implies otherwise. Given that gene had been at lynch-1 for a page or more at this point, was a quicklynch so likely? And why be scared of it? If anyone rushed to quicklynch gene from that point, we would have learned a lot about their alignment. This post makes me think that yessirree is more concerned with looking responsible and town than he is about finding scum.

gene's 106 feels like a good reason to UNVOTE: gene. I may not agree with his reads here (and by 'may' I mean 'do') but it seems like he's put some effort into scumhunting, as asked, and they don't look like they're reads that he's made up to appease us. He can be town for now.

Or can he? I'm now up to Bacde's 143, which makes me wonder if I've had that reaction to gene's list of reads because I'm coming into it fresh after a few days, with gene's scumminess not really in my mind very much anymore. I'm considering revoting gene but we'll see at the end of this post.

OK, by the next page gene is posting stuff like this 155, trying to appease Doctorpepper by complimenting how he's come up with his reasons for wanting to lynch gene while also appealing to emotion as his way of convincing him not to follow through.

It's getting later and this post is getting longer so I'm going to start being a little more streamlined and skimmy with the promise of going back over things tomorrow. So: Doctorpepper is town, Bob is town. Gene's self-vote is annoying and Bacde's right that nobody should do it, but it does make me reconsider

again

what I think of gene. I really don't know at this point but I think I'd rather lynch yessiree, maybe?

Hmm. Last couple of pages are interesting. In the end I think I'm left with a slight townread on gene's slot for replacing out (particularly as things just started to seem to be perhaps moving away from his lynch).

On Bob's 'slip': I think it's prrrrrobably worth lynching but, after his whole "I'll probably not be alive next time I'm online!" I want to call his bluff. We shouldn't lynch him until he comes back to defend himself. If he's town, this is obviously a good thing. If he's scum, we either force him to say things before he dies (which we can analyse after he flips to search for buddies) or he tries to wait it out and we are reassured that we've caught him and can lynch even more happily than we would now.

So what's it to be, Bob? I want you to take that shot at defending yourself. Have a go.

[ChannelDelibird]

On the subject of my own inactivity (for which I profusely apologise), I could talk at length about how my play has changed over the years but it would be self-serving and, in truth, there aren't a lot of helpful conclusions from it. What I will say is that I think that NS's memory of my "usual self" is historically pretty inaccurate.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh, Rikablu's town as well. I snipped a paragraph about that out of the post for length's sake and meant to include it in the skimmy bit further down but forgot.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm saying that I'm confident that I've already figured out his alignment from the post in which he appears to have slipped (I'm trying to imagine it as something other than a scumslip and struggling to do so plausibly) but he says he can defend himself and I'd like to see if he can because I'm willing to be proved wrong. I'd probably have just hammered* if this weren't a newbie game, though.

*Bob and the vote count disagree on how many votes he has so, if I voted now, it'd feel like I were hammering as presumably whoever failed to get their vote counted would go ahead and hammer

[ChannelDelibird]

You know, I seriously hate doing this, and I really try hard NOT to do this, but I'm calling the scum team as Bob and CDB right now.

Convince me otherwise, guys.

OK: You're wrong.

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: Yessiree

Bob has earned another day and Yessiree is scum.

Something slightly more in-depth later this afternoon.

[ChannelDelibird]

Bacde, are you a female IRL? Because your posts sound very feminine.

#thingsthatdontmatter

I owe this game more attention than I am currently paying to it. Going through now and I'll post where I am on as many people as possible.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB's vote is weird, JKM asks why isnt everyone voting for yessirree, then one post later he votes for yessirree, and after yes's self vote. Does the self vote make him scum? But anyway, do you think Bob is town now?

Do I think Bob is town? I haven't decided yet. Prior to the "slip", I had no read on him. His explanation in 254 made sense to me for why he would need clarification on the town wincon so I don't think it was a scumslip anymore, hence my read reverting to "TBC". I'm not ruling out Bob as scum yet, just ruling out a lynch for the slip.

Meanwhile, I still had a scumread on yessiree - reasons detailed here - then I came in on page 13 after a bit of inactivity and saw yessiree's self-vote. It's not that the self-vote itself is scummy - compare to gene - but the way in which he did it, being loud and grandstanding and almost doing it as a dare. There's a disingenuousness about his behaviour that I think is more likely to come from someone enjoying being scum than it is to come from town.

[ChannelDelibird]

And then I go back to thoroughly reading the last few pages and I see things like this that just make me think that yessiree really isn't all that concerned with lynching scum and I just get happier with my vote.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, I haven't really missed too much other than yessiree being scum and NS being town. Bob

could

be scum but I'm much, much more confident in yessiree. DoctorPepper is supertown, Bacde remains town, pebro's probably town - I like how he's trying to be proactive, while noting that yessiree keeps trying to shut that down.

[ChannelDelibird]

Would scum be playing like this? I'm not sure I've ever seen the scum be the loudest and the weirdest player in the room.

Without being able to summon a particular example from memory, I'm pretty sure I have seen similar before but, even if not, yessiree is a newbie and we don't have any historical evidence either way on whether or not

he

would do it.

[ChannelDelibird]

As Rika said in post #324, it doesn't make sense as any alignment. Why would scum do it more likely then town?

I think it's more likely to come from who find being loud easier than trying to fake scumhunting. The intended benefit is presumably people saying "well, he's making too much of a scene and drawing too much attention to himself to be scum" or even just trying to influence people to follow him if he's loud and browbeating enough about it.

Called out on not really doing very much to help the town, gene responded by getting off his arse and putting some effort in. In the same situation, yessiree just doubled down as if considering it a challenge and being unwilling or scared of bending.

If you don't think it makes sense from either alignment, though, I can understand that. You've made me think about it myself, although I still think it makes more sense for scum than town. I've talked about more than just this, however, in this post - I think post 67 is quite telling, particularly. What do you think?

[ChannelDelibird]

How does you crowing about how "safe" you are help the town?

[ChannelDelibird]

I agree, it's a terrible line of reasoning. Trust me, having played enough Day 1s as mafia, I fucking

love

free lynches on distracting players because it's super-hard for anyone to complain about your part in the lynch later on.

That said, I can possibly believe that you believed in this idea. So what I want you to do now, yessiree, is to prove it by bucking up and help us find the scum. You don't think it's those four? Fine. That means it's two out of the other four. Who are they? I'm not going to unvote you unless you start scumhunting.

[ChannelDelibird]

Actually that's a good point, Pebro. yessiree, when did you decide to start this gambit?

[ChannelDelibird]

p-edit: when I start being a retard LOL

No, specifically. Point to a post.

[ChannelDelibird]

I think I'd be OK with a hammer on yessiree now.

Also, just to let you all know, my access is going to be reduced this weekend, particularly on Saturday.

[ChannelDelibird]

Just posting to check in after the tigers attacked the site - more later today.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi guys.

I really regret my approach to the end of that day. Having had my head caught up in a couple of other games, I started to think that yessiree was probably actually town after all but I was rather just hoping that we'd hurry up and lynch him so we could get a couple of flips to better inform my reads and come back refreshed on Day 2. The lack of kill doesn't actually do an awful lot of good for me but at least we've ended that really quite long Day 1. Sorry, yessiree, if you're reading - I should have tried harder to get a different result.

I've reread the end of Day 1 but I think I will soon go back and reread the start, because that may prove more useful in the long run. Here's where I am at the moment, though:

I think DoctorPepper is scummier than Titus and think he's the best vote for now. I definitely didn't agree that Titus "slipped" and I got the feeling, reading back, that DocPep was trying to bully through a lynch on flimsy reasoning. I didn't really believe that he believed what he was saying.

Bob's vote on DoctorPepper looks unlikely to be that of a scumbuddy - but if DocPep ends up town, I might come back to it.

I think Bacde is very very likely town and Pebro is probably town. I will reevaluate my previous NS townread as I reread the start of Day 1.

For now, VOTE: DoctorPepper.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'll elaborate on my Bacde townread as DocPep is pointing at him being scum (despite already claiming to "know" who the two scum are): As well as general townvibes from earlier in Day 1, I felt that Bacde's behaviour around yessiree in the latter stages of Yesterday accurately reflected how I felt and should have posted had my head been more in the game. It seemed natural and to come at the right time; i.e. not forced.

[ChannelDelibird]

Titus, while I agree that it's good to take time enough to develop reads properly, there is such a thing as the too-long day. I wouldn't call yesterday too long for the game at large but for me, given that I was struggling to get my teeth into it, I'd probably have got more out of it ending more quickly in the yessiree lynch that looked likely several pages before it actually happened and then going from there.

Again; I wouldn't call yesterday "too long" but, from anecdotal evidence of scanning The Road to Rome now and then, I do think that 24 pages is "really quite long" for Day 1 in a Newbie game, comparatively.

[ChannelDelibird]

DocPep, I will look again at Titus as you ask after food.

However, I do want to say that I don't think we should be openly speculating as to why an IC didn't die. I'm all for analysing why players who die at night were killed but there are so many possibilities about last night that it won't get us far, especially as we don't even have a particular player dead to consider. 'Why did the scum target this player?' is more instructive than 'Take this player and consider why they may or may not have been targeted by the mafia kill or by town power roles'. I think we are more likely to risk giving scum information about what powers we have than we are to learn anything that will help us significantly at this stage in the game.

[ChannelDelibird]

too long

I think you're conflating things that Titus and I are saying into one confused sentence. I don't see either of us saying both of these things.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm more confused about where I stand between DocPep and Titus now than I was at the start of the day. Will look back again this evening; clearly got some thinking to do.

[ChannelDelibird]

BAD CDB. BAD, BAD CDB. BAD.

Working at the moment but quiet enough that I should be able to read. I really can't apologise enough about this, I have no idea why this game keeps slipping my mind.

[ChannelDelibird]

What I'll do first, quickly, is to offer a meek and sheepish self-defence with regards to my failure to deliver promised content in a timely fashion. While I have got a little bit better of late, this is a habit that I have had for most of my years of playing mafia. If you really, really want I can go back and dig up a whole bunch of links where I fall behind and consistently fail to catch up (both as town and scum) but, as NS's note that he didn't necessarily expect me to be prompt in returning I think implied, regulars like him around here are well aware of my somewhat patchy activity record.

I'm not saying this is a towntell or anything; just that you bear this in mind when you try to decide whether or not I am more likely to be town or scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

So the last time I was on I promised to go and reread the Titus/Dr Pepper debate because I was starting to doubt my DocPepScum/TitusTown read. And I think probably a part of why I haven't rushed back to do that is because

oh my god the walls, the walls of text

.

So I'm going to try to look at it in a slightly skimmy way, trying to pick out particularly relevant posts like when people vote for them and such, to try and get a condensed read. It'll do for the short term and, hey, if we end up moving onto something else rather than this wallfest I probably won't complain.

[ChannelDelibird]

I still really, really suck at this. Can't post right now as :marathonday: but this is priority No.1 tomorrow/late tonight

[ChannelDelibird]

I am working this afternoon. Hopefully, it should be a quiet shift. If it is, I will be posting in this game then. If not, I can't guarantee that marathon weekend won't continue to distract me but I will try.

[ChannelDelibird]

Not flaking out not flaking out not flaking out

Fuck the reread. I'm just going to play from now and fill in when I can. The scum must be being scummy now. I'm on it.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB what is your read on Pebro

When last I checked he was town. I'm on shift at the moment so will read over the last handful of pages when I'm done to reacquaint myself and check if I've missed anything.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm sorry I missed the end of the day but I wouldn't have expected that flip at all given Rikablu's Day 1. Now that we've got a flip, though, I'm going to look back at Rikablu and Titus and see if I can deduce the partner. And I'm doing that right now. This second. Now. Hurrah! Yay!

[ChannelDelibird]

I think I'm caught up to speed now on the posts. From my understanding, the wagon on Gene has more or less started due to a sarcastic retort to a reaction-fishing question, leading to Gene's repeated defensive responses to scumhunting, rather than trying to efficiently retort and scumhunt in turn.

I'm not entirely sure how I should feel about self-admission to playing defensively (post 43). On one hand, being a new player and getting a hefty wagon on you barely three pages in is concerning. On the other hand Gene, you repeated the admission once again, specifically after being told that town shouldn't try to prove innocence. My gut reaction to that would be a vote on you, and I feel like I should follow through, because either you're being sincere about your lack of focus or you have motive to let this bandwagon build.

Unvote; Vote Gene[/card]

On the other hand, I'd like to ask yessiree a question: I see Post 46 being made immediately after Post 45 (as in, in the same minute). Why did you push your vote through without utilizing the additional post that Gene made to present a stronger case?

This makes me think even more than before that pebro isn't the remaining mafia. Here, Rikablu sits on the fence of an issue and decides to vote gene. If gene had been his partner, I think he would have used the apparent 50-50 nature of his dilemma to avoid voting for his buddy. Could be wrong, but that's the impression I get from Rikablu's approach to the game.

[ChannelDelibird]

I don't think yessirree is playing differently on purpose. This is both his and my first game on this forum and

I didn't know the exact winning condition of a townie until you stated it,

so that's a null tell or whatever you kids call it these days.

Also, saying that you don't find yessirree suspicious is one thing, but saying you don't understand why others find him suspicious is quite another. We're talking about the guy who said, "I am town. So I will not be lynched today, I will not be lynched tomorrow, and I will not be lynched on any day thereafter."

If you can explain why a townie would say that, I'll happily switch my vote back to CDB.

Wait what.

Vote Bicephalous Bob

Here, Rikablu is the first person to go after Bob for the supposed scumslip. Again, I don't think that Rikablu would do this to his buddy immediately - he'd rather let it slide and hope that nobody else noticed then jump on afterwards, I suspect.

[ChannelDelibird]

I also think Bacde's probably town, simply because I've read him as town throughout (well, in the parts of the game that I've actually read). I need to read the circumstances of yesterday's lynch next but DoctorPepper's reasoning about bussing is probably accurate, as well.

That leaves me with DoctorPepper and JKMatthews as remaining non-town reads. Time to investigate.

[ChannelDelibird]

Well, it almost certainly isn't DoctorPepper after ... y'know, the entirety of Day 2.

VOTE: JKMatthews

[ChannelDelibird]

Pebro, what do you make of my 1006?

[ChannelDelibird]

Am I discouting DoctorPepper permanently? No. Am I discounting him when there are more likely candidates alive and we're not in a Lynch-or-Lose situation? Sure.

[ChannelDelibird]

That's horrible, JKM. My condolences.

[ChannelDelibird]

Globalpost: Between tomorrow (19th) and probably the 23rd (TBC) I *may* have limited access. Should be stable internet where I'm going but won't know how good it is until I get there.

Saki, within the last couple of pages I've talked about how I'm happy to eliminate every other suspect than you today. Who am I wrong about?

[ChannelDelibird]

That was implicit. I have to be wrong about somebody else as well. Who else?

[ChannelDelibird]

Fair enough - what I'm saying is that, if you're complaining about this thread not being active enough over the last couple of days, for my part it's because I've made my thinking clear and need people to respond to it.

[ChannelDelibird]

DoctorPepper, I don't think this gambit is being very useful. I would rather that Saki actually be made to try to scumhunt outside of "this person is faking a guilty on me so I have to attack them" mode.

PEDIT: Oh, good timing. I don't agree that it was a particularly town reaction, though.

[ChannelDelibird]

There is no need to massclaim today. We are not in a Lynch-or-Lose situation and I think there's enough to go on without claims.

[ChannelDelibird]

I still think it's Saki. As I say, I don't think the reaction to your gambit is telling either way.

[ChannelDelibird]

And we don't "need" clears.

[ChannelDelibird]

Er, exactly, so no need to give out more information to them than is necessary.

[ChannelDelibird]

And I think tomorrow would be better.

[ChannelDelibird]

There will only be hysterics if we get hysterical about it. It really wouldn't be a big deal.

[ChannelDelibird]

Were I alive, I'd cross that bridge when I came to it. Massclaim at that point might help but I'd still trust my ability to read the thread to help me most of all.

Let's say we massclaim today and lynch you and you flip town (which I don't think you would) - the scum nightkill is going to be much better informed. It could be decisive. I don't see any reason to give scum that advantage. Frankly I think your increasingly desperate attempts to do so ("but what if me + someone else flips town, what will you do?" isn't actually relevant to massclaim at all) are indicative of scum in a bad position trying to manufacture a claim-based diversion from your lynch.

[ChannelDelibird]

If I had no answer to that question, as town, that would be when I decided to go and get an answer.

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: Keybladewielder
I'm keeping my vote here until I get a satisfactory explanation of why you aren't scum.

This'll do

Pretty sure Saki is the last scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

Two replacements ago = still the same slot.

Keyblade's vote is fine.

I am voting for you.

[ChannelDelibird]

If you're town, you should never ever ever ever ever vote for yourself. There is no gain and it arguably bends the rule about playing to your win condition.

You can be frustrated, sure, but what you should be doing is looking back at the game and, if you really think Keyblade is the remaining scum, examining how he and Titus played to see if there is a connection between them that would make sense as them being on the same scumteam.

You've got quite a lot of posts on mafiascum, Saki, so I would expect better from you at this point. This is a newbie game; set a better example.

[ChannelDelibird]

I have a problem with you self-voting because it's against the spirit of the game (and I'm speaking with my SE hat on here). Apologies for misappraising your level of experience, though.

I don't expect you to glorify your own lynch. I expect you, if you were town, to do your utmost to show that someone else is more likely to be the remaining scum than you. I've given my reasons why I think everyone else is town but I have an open mind - if you can show me where I'm wrong, I'm willing to see it. It's just that I haven't seen any reason to change my mind yet. Excluding your own vote, there are two votes on you, not four - this is not a hopeless situation for you.

[ChannelDelibird]

Does it suck replacing into a slot that people think is likely to be scum? Yes. Does that make it unfair for people to continue to think you are scum? No.

Tunnelling would be if I focused on you without paying any attention to oter players. I've considered every other player (before I considered you, in fact - read my posts starting here and see how my vote comes

because

of how I've thought about everyone rather than focus blindly on one person). Just because I think there are reasons for them to be town doesn't mean that I'm refusing to consider them.

You've told me that Keyblade is scum - I rebutted that by pointing you to why I think he's town. Your only answer to that is that it was "two replacements ago" - you see how I can't take that as a reason to overturn my townread, right? You've not explained to me why what I saw is more likely to come from Keyblade being scum than it is from Keyblade being town. That's the key question.

I repeat: Your situation is not hopeless.

I'm here

. I am asking you to work with me.

PEDIT: NO. If you flip town, that

doesn't

prove that Keyblade is scum. You haven't given me any convincing reason why he would be more likely to be scum than any of the other players. If you die, I'm left with a bunch of townreads and I have to figure out which is wrong. Nothing you've done so far has helped me figure that out.

I'm "hesitant" because this is a newbie game and I really, really want to discourage self-voting as an acceptable practice. If you're town, getting yourself lynched as things stand will not help your win condition, if I haven't been clear enough already. If you were hammered right now and flipped town, I would learn nothing. Therefore you're not playing to your win condition. I want to stress that I'm not OK with that and the mafiascum community at large, when you play other games around here, will not be either.

[ChannelDelibird]

Meanwhile, here's something I want to ask you.

You think Keyblade is somehow provably scum if you flip. Yet you're questioning my sincerity and commitment to this lynch here and there - and in the next post you'll address me as if I'm town. Your feelings on me are unclear and it looks like you're taking a different tone with me from post to post. It feels disingenuous. What is your read on me exactly?

[ChannelDelibird]

You aren't even asking Keyblade a single question as to why he jumped onto my wagon with a naked vote and refuses to supply me with a vote.

I found his vote fairly logical, given my conclusions about everyone else. I'd ask him about it tomorrow if I were wrong today but I don't find it particularly indicative of scum.

You're not town in my opinion and neither is keyblade.

At least one of us has to be town. Which is it?

Explain keyblade being town once I flip.

I've told you why I think he's town. If you flipped town, that wouldn't change my reasons - it would make me reevaluate my reasons for everyone being town, not just him, but a townflip from you specifically would have no direct effect on my Keyblade read right now.

[ChannelDelibird]

add to the reasons for CDB scum that he didn't try to read my self-vote and instead told me not to do it

That is absolutely the only way I would respond to a self-vote in a newbie game. It's a uniformly terrible thing and, as an SE player in this game, I'm obliged to explain how bad it is. See our IC, Bacde's, first post as evidence that we see it as quite an important thing to discourage (which you'd know if you'd read the game - how long have you been in the game now without reading up properly? I've seen no sign that you have actually caught up in full yet).

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: CDB

It's all because of Day 2 where he was voting DP (who was leading the charge on Titus) which itself isn't scummy but in 606 he says he "will look at titus". Here are his contributions for the rest of day 2, not a selection of posts but every post following 606:

613 - he will look into things later
733 - should be able to get reads. the game just keeps slipping his mind...
734 - makes excuses for his "failure to deliver promised content"
735 - can't look into titus/DP because of the walls of text. He'll just skim and won't complain if we move on to something other than titus/DP
808 - can't post right now but it will be his top priority tomorrow!
851 - more excuses for not contributing
916 - "fuck the reread." he's just going to pick up things from here
921 - he'll reread the last couple pages when he gets a chance

So over a 2-week period he never delivers on his promise to look into a player that eventually flipped scum. So CDB starts day 3 by promising to look back and find titus's partner 1004. And lo and behold within 10 minutes he has done a reread and found scum 1008!

I can understand why you would be suspicious of my period of lack of activity. I have two things to say to this, one of which I feel is fair and the other I don't really like to bring up in a newbie game but there you go.

The thing I'm a little bit sheepish about is that I do have an unfortunate habit of struggling for activity sometimes over my years of mafia. If you like, I can find some examples of past games where I have been unable to deliver on promised content (as both alignments, so you know it's not a tell for me). If I were in your position, I'd find that unsatisfying, but I'm afraid it is a fact of my play.

However, what I think you should consider more is that it's much easier to read a game when you have a dead scum. Before Titus was dead, the task of getting caught up with the whole game was a much denser task, requiring full reads of the whole thread and thorough examination of everything. After Titus flipped, I had a lot more information to work with when I found time to catch up - now I knew half the scumteam and could look specifically through what that slot did to see how they interacted with people. Searching for buddies is a lot easier to do. Do you have a problem with the conclusions that I made?

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm not asking you to answer directly for JKMatthews but you can certainly comment on other players and, from that, give us more information. For that, you should have read the whole thread because it seems like you're working off maybe the last 10 pages.

Of course, the problem with replacements is that they cannot slip into the skin of their predecessor. That being a fact of mafia, you can't discount things that their predecessors did. It isn't logical for town to do that.

I understood your question. Primarily my natural response was not to read it, it was to scream NO DON'T DO THAT DON'T DO THAT because it's bad regardless of alignment. Looking at it now, I could see it either way. It's clearly a product of frustration but I've seen that kind of frustration at the claimed inevitability of being lynched from both town and scum, so for that reason it doesn't override my other feelngs.

[ChannelDelibird]

Since when are "there are worse things" and "it's really bad" mutually exclusive?

You don't share his thoughts but you do share his motivations. Your motivation is to fulfil your win condition.

I have presented a case - a case for everyone else having a good reason to be town and you not having such a reason is a perfectly reasonable case. You still haven't presented a reply further than "but some of those people were replaced".

[ChannelDelibird]

I think I missed it. Your case. 'cause you never actually made one.

If you had read the thread properly, like I keep saying, you would know that I made a case for everyone else being less likely to be partners with Titus, starting here.

You think Keyblade is town for his shitty reasons for jumping on my wagon?

I think his jump onto your wagon was null. I think his slot is town.

By the way you're just sitting there deathtunneling me not even bothering to comment on Keyblade being blatantly scummy with his vote there.

I have commmented.

When you tunnel someone hard enough you can start twisting their words to make it a slip. Why would you do that?

How am I twisting your words?

[ChannelDelibird]

Seriously, where am I twisting your words? I more or less understand the impasse everywhere else but I really don't understand where you're coming from on that one.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB explain why the hell you decided to come back and pressure the replacement in hopes of getting a lynch off.

Why do you keep bringing up the replacement thing? It makes absolutely zero difference to your alignment and it only makes you look like you're trying to gain sympathy by playing the "oh, I was so kind to replace in and now look what you're doing to me" card.

As for the "why I came back" part, that's because I always intended to get back into this game and give it my full effort. Do you think it would have been more pro-town for me to have lurked through today as well? Do you disagree that it is easier to get a foothold into a game when you know whose scumbuddy you are looking for?

It's quite obvious you haven't read the thread closely, either.

I've read every page of the thread in full at least once. Until perhaps this page, there was no indication that you had done that much. Lecturing Keybladewielder just now on that very subject is astonishingly hypocritical.

And after all that you think DoctorPepper is scum? You think that kind of powerbussing throughout the entirety of Day 2 is something that scum would be able to keep up the ammunition for? I find that exceptionally unlikely. I have no idea why it's overridden your apparently dearly held Keyblade scumread or why it's superceded your vote on me. I can at least understand Karnage's reasons on me, for example (and I will get to that, Karnage - I just came in and spotted this from Saki right now and had to respond).

[ChannelDelibird]

To be clear, DoctorPepper is literally the last person I would lynch today, apart from myself.

[ChannelDelibird]

If you seriously believed that massclaiming now was a good idea for your faction you'd just do it without me and force me to go along with it. I'm not a complete imbecile, I'll claim if everyone else does. I just think we don't need it.

Anyway, hello Nacho, welcome to the game. This would be a

really good

time for you to not randomly scumread me like you usually do.

[ChannelDelibird]

Very well, then.

I'm a Vanilla Townie.

popcorn Karnage.

[ChannelDelibird]

Saki's 1183 is exaggeratory in the extreme.

[ChannelDelibird]

People who are more likely to be scum should be made to claim earlier, so that they do it with as little information as possible. I think DP is the least likely of all of you to be Titus's buddy. As for why I chose Karnage ahead of Keyblade/Nacho, I'd like to answer that after Karnage has claimed, please.

[ChannelDelibird]

As for why I chose Karnage ahead of Keyblade/Nacho, I'd like to answer that after Karnage has claimed, please.

now?

Only slightly relevant but I decided that Keyblade's slot was overall, marginally, the towniest from before and Karnage, being three years less experienced than Nacho, was marginally more likely to claim something suboptimal as scum than Nacho. Also I hoped being cryptic in my last post might have contributed to that possibility. Not much but there you go.

Also, I'm reasonably sure that, by "the Brit", Nacho means me. Because Nacho is silly.

[ChannelDelibird]

Only slightly relevant but I decided that Keyblade's slot was overall, marginally, the towniest from before and Karnage, being three years less experienced than Nacho, was marginally more likely to claim something suboptimal as scum than Nacho. Also I hoped being cryptic in my last post might have contributed to that possibility. Not much but there you go.

Also, I'm reasonably sure that, by "the Brit", Nacho means me. Because Nacho is silly.

what's up with the sudden softness in tone?

Because your question was reasonable so I didn't get annoyed by it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Because your question was reasonable so I didn't get annoyed by it.

My question "What do you read my self-vote as" is unreasonable?

I don't think I answered that question in an unreasonable way. To be honest, I don't think I've answered anything unreasonably - and I hope you don't feel I've crossed the line in terms of aggression anywhere because that certainly wouldn't have been my intention, though I have been frustrated by your approach to this game. The act of self-voting always annoys me for reasons which I have already explained and I pointed out that I think it is null in and of itself.

[ChannelDelibird]

You voted my predecessor off PoE

Just because you disagree with that doesn't make it unreasonable.

then condemned me as scum based off a reaction test someone else read me town on.

Well, initially I didn't know it was a reaction test. It didn't occur to me - personally, I'm not sure what reaction you could possibly have expected other than "bwuh?" so no obvious gain from it. Also I don't see anyone who's actually said that they think the DP vote was indicative of town. Karnage, for example, said the opposite?

As to whether it actually genuinely was a reaction test, I'll admit I'm more conflicted here. There's certainly little explanation for it as a genuine vote as either alignment, so it's certainly manufactured in that way, but I'm not sure what it was meant to add other than confusion. Your approach is so scattergun that it's very hard to figure out how you think it's helping.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm willing to admit, at this point, that confirmation bias may be affecting me. When massclaim is finished I'll go over everything again and see if my vote is still in the best place.

[ChannelDelibird]

Your definition of legitimate is clearly different to mine. Again, you can disagree with my reasoning, but I did give a considered reason for each (apart from possibly Bacde, although I can't remember if I discussed why I thought he was town earlier in the game).

[ChannelDelibird]

Rikablu IS Titus, though I grant that I could have kept reading beyond that - but when I found the posts in question I decided that they were good enough town indicators that they were worth running with. Your obsession with recency is weird and unfair - posts do not have an expiry date, replacements do not get townier just for having replaced in. It doesn't "prove" Keyblade town, no, but as I said at the time it was good enough to go on for now while we still have a mislynch left.

Yes, there have been times when I've explicitly said "I'm not reading the thread right now". That's when we didn't have a scumflip and I just needed to get into the game

somehow

to make myself useful. Whether or not you think I succeeded at that is up to you. However, after the scumflip, I've made sure that I'm caught up with everything, as is sensible. Just because at one point in this game I needed to not read in order to help add some kind of content doesn't mean I never went back when I was more in tune with things.

yessiree's and NS's flips are fundamentally different to Titus's because I can't search for specific buddy/non-buddy tells from town players. Is it not obvious to you that it's easier to dig into flipped scum to find scum?

[ChannelDelibird]

UNVOTE: Saki

Full response to that post later - I'm about to go and get lunch - but, while I disagree with you almost totally on many, many levels, I may be wrong about you being scum.

In an ideal world, when I've come back from lunch (or just soon), we'll actually have finished this massclaim and be able to really narrow things down.

[ChannelDelibird]

They're kind of one and the same but, rest assured, I will give both.

[ChannelDelibird]

Increasingly I think I'm arguing with Saki simply because we disagree and I haven't been able to let it drop. However, at this point, the effort and conviction that has gone into his replies, that he has continually and unshakeably kept going, is making me think that this is genuine town belief in what he's saying. That so many of his replies are coming straight after mine tells me these things are coming right off the top of his head - these things are not being made up, they really are what's immediately occurring to him. I have to admit that I think scum would have run out of energy a while ago. I still can't emphasise how wrong I think you are about more or less anything, Saki, but I can understand the points you're making.

Things I think are still specifically worth me responding to from that post:

Also you cannot discount the fact that people's reads and behavior will change over nearly 30-40 page gap between Rikablu and us now, and I do not see the point in your reads not changing.

Reads always change; I have no problem with that. I wasn't picking things out about consistency of reads or anything like that, just how I hypothesised that Rikablu/Titus would react to things involving players who may or may not be their scumbuddy. Instant reaction at that time is crucial - their actual read is not as important as how they behave around other players and those snap reactions are always more telling, I find, than long-term "reads" adopted by scum over time, because scum are less in control of instant reactions.

Badce's hesitance to vote Titus is town?
JKMatthew's hardlurking through D2 is town?

These are some things that really stood out to me and yet you failing to notice them while making a case about 'hey everyone is town except you...sooooooo' makes me wonder if your case is valid.

I can't tell whether you're saying that these are things that I should or should not be thinking. I think JKM's lurking through Day 2 was understandable from either alignment, probably - it wasn't why I voted for him. Bacde's probably the person I most pressingly need to reread given that I didn't have a direct single-post connection that made me think not-buddy on him, just falling back on an earlier townread, so I'll get back to you on his Titus position when I've done that.

Also, really, will a townflip provide

that

much less information than a scumflip? From my experience on-site a townflip is still very valuable and I doubt you are a player not skilled enough to deduce scum based on townflips.

Townflips do provide information - that's why we risk mislynches instead of no lynching - but when you only have townflips you're still having to scour the entire thread for the scum influence. When you have a scumflip, you know where the scum influence has been and you can trace its connections more easily in a more focused search. For a player like me who was in need of something to really grab me about this game as an entry point to really get invested, a scumflip is a much easier way to get my teeth into it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Goodness, apologies for the length of that. Generally speaking I hate posting walls of text and I often refuse to read other people's on point of principle.

[ChannelDelibird]

He's on V/LA 'til tomorrow so, basically, yeah

[ChannelDelibird]

Just DP left?

[ChannelDelibird]

Well, that doesn't really clear things up at all for me. =/

The death of the experienced player NS and targetting the IC night 1 pretty much clears CDB for me as well.

Wait, what? How does that clear me at all? I mean, I'm grateful, but... what?

[ChannelDelibird]

Nacho's obviously cleared. I don't 100% agree with your logic on clearing me but it's not really worth complaining over seeing as you're town.

I'm pulling a double shift today but I'll try to reread the other three at some point and reevaluate my vote.

[ChannelDelibird]

my role PM supports my VT claim

This is the most annoying kind of post it's possible to make in a mafia game, IMO.

Nacho, give me insight.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm absolutely wiped out now but I'll be around for more or less the whole day until deadline tomorrow (I'm in the right timezone for it).

[ChannelDelibird]

That's what I'm going to figure out tomorrow (although it should be clear by now that I'm now taking it as read that we're lynching Saki today).

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm looking back at Day 1 to begin - starting with a look at gene and Rikablu in iso as Keybladewielder's last few posts gave me bad vibes. I'll look at everyone, though, and weigh up where I think my vote is best placed.

First thing I notice is that I could definitely be wrong here. I posited before that Rikablu would have found an excuse not to vote gene if they were buddies here but the vote itself is quite apologetic - "I feel like I have to" could almost be him trying to calm his buddy down in case he freaks out at his own buddy voting for him - and his hedging vote here is then followed with what sounds like the beginnings of a case he's more interested in on yessiree. I'll dig deeper into this pair to see if there's more supporting evidence.

[ChannelDelibird]

Gene, do you want to play this game anymore? If you do not, I recommend getting a replacement. You don't do your character slot justice by voting yourself. Extreme circumstances aside, doesn't it go against the philosophy of very nearly every wincon?

I request replacement.

I'll be honest, I've already kind of convinced myself. I need to reread Pebro, however, because I had a townread on him and I need to make sure I could be wrong about his behaviour.

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: Keybladewielder

[ChannelDelibird]

The problem will be that, in the event of Karnage and Nacho not picking up their prods before deadline, we will not be able to secure a lynch without someone voting for themselves. This is one of those occasions where it is, in fact, better for us to ensure that we get

any

lynch at deadline rather than no lynch and town should be prepared to hammer themselves if it comes down to it. This is, obviously, a last resort but compare and contrast to whingeing and self-voting earlier in the day - look how much we got done in the time between Saki would have had himself killed and now. We're in a much better position for it.

[ChannelDelibird]

That will depend from mod to mod, although obviously I'd prefer that it happen if they're not picked up. I'm just saying: be prepared to do it if you have to - all of us.

[ChannelDelibird]

Obviously I think we should lynch Keyblade - and I'm telling Keyblade that, if she gets to Lynch-1 and sees that the deadline is about to hit, she should self-hammer. I'm also pointing out that I would, if nobody else moved to Keyblade, switch back to Saki, Karnage or even myself if needed, depending on who was closest to lynch. So it's directed at everyone who could conceivably be lynched today.

[ChannelDelibird]

Welp if you guys really want to get a lynch off I can always selfvote for my lynch. It's not bad for town to self-hammer to provide information, is it?

Yeah that's my point.

But don't do it yet - we've got a few hours left which should allow 'murica-based scummers like Nacho to wake up and check the thread to vote, making it less likely to be necessary.

[ChannelDelibird]

I've never actually went over a deadline without a lynch. what happens?

It will depend on the particular mod's rules - always be sure to read the rules to know what you're expecting. In this game, there will simply be no lynch if we fail to agree by deadline. This is true in most games on mafiascum (but not quite all).

[ChannelDelibird]

Huh. I read somewhere that a majority lynch happens. (the player with the most votes gets lynched)

I've seen that - and other variations thereof - very, very occasionally. I'd estimate that no-lynch-at-deadline is the standard of approximately 97% of mafiascum games.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'll look back to see if there's any way of telling who DP was more likely to jail (I'm not going to take your word for it, Saki).

[ChannelDelibird]

Confirming myself as town because it won't hurt. Karnage seems like a good shout but I'll give things a look over again to make sure.

[ChannelDelibird]

Confirming myself as town because it won't hurt. Karnage seems like a good shout but I'll give things a look over again to make sure.

Why are you so hesitant?
It's your hammer and we win.

I'm hesitant because I want to be sure that we would win, obviously. If you're town, you know it's the right answer, but I don't and I'd rather take a little more time to be happy with my choice.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yeah, OK, fine.

VOTE: Karnage

[ChannelDelibird]

Hurrah!

I'll add some more thoughts later but I enjoyed this game when I eventually got into it. I have to say, I was largely impressed by all the newbies.