Newbie 1390 -- Game Over


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Post Post #55 (isolation #0) » Thu Jun 13, 2013 10:06 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 51, Cabd wrote:I suppose you'll have to wait until they show up, now won't you?

All in good time, I assure you.
/Confirm

Hello all, getting an avatar and reading the thread. First time on this site, but played a few games before.

Cabd, sure would like to hear your semi-serious reason.
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Post Post #57 (isolation #1) » Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:05 pm

Post by Derivan »

Ok, finished reading here goes.

Fegelein (not Cabd, sorry...really need to read before I jump in) thanks for posting your semi-serious reasoning. I understand the pressure idea since I hadn't posted.

Anyone else have thoughts on JasonWazza and Fegelein's recent bandwagon jump?

My thoughts are that at least one of them is targeting Cabd and Goodmorning since they appear to be strong players and have posted the most.

I'm not big on activity tells, but do expect analysis on voting. That being said would be great to hear from Darq and bestwillcui. I am currently abroad so will be on at odd hours if you guys are stateside.

That being said.

VOTE: JasonWazza
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Post Post #64 (isolation #2) » Fri Jun 14, 2013 12:31 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 58, JasonWazza wrote:So wait your reason for voting me is because........ i voted someone who you have a problem with as well?

What is your reason?
Because as I stated in my post, you have voted for the two players (with an early bandwagon switch) who have posted the most and appear to be strong players.

In other discussion I agree it is a scummy that Cabd claimed that the MOD sent him info mistakenly.
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Post Post #78 (isolation #3) » Fri Jun 14, 2013 12:52 pm

Post by Derivan »

Spoiler: Responses to posts
In post 69, goodmorning wrote:I took that as a joke and if it becomes the key point in anyone's case on him I shall laugh.
I agreed that it was a scummy move, yet not enough to place a vote. Rather see some actual analysis, of which there has been little. I'll continue to foster discussion and try to get people to explain their vote jumping/logic.
In post 69, goodmorning wrote: I feel obligated to point out here that effort and ability are not in any way correlated with alignment.
I agree, it was the BW jump that caught my attention. And to answer your question I didn't think it was enough of a scummy move (you pointed out the likelihood of it being a joke) to vote for him and read no other tells or had a basis for a vote.
In post 68, TheGarantula wrote: I think he was referring to your vote on Cabd, since JasonWazza voted GM during RVS and then Cabd more recently. His argument is that one or both of you are scummy for voting the more experienced players first on shaky grounds.

You think:
1. Cabd is scummy
2. Wazza and Fegelein are scummy for voting Cabd
You explained my logic perfectly and then drew incorrect conclusions. Also I have one scum read (either JasonWazza or Fegelein) at this point, which is hardly "teh most 3vr", try again. I appreciate your analysis and contribution though, not much to go on with so few people making contributions. (1 post each by, Darq and bestwillcui)


TL;DR
I think:
1. Wazza and Fegelein are scummy for voting the more experienced players first on shaky grounds. (as Garantula stated)
2. Cabd made a scummy
move
by claiming the MOD gave him information. Either that or it was a joke as Goodmorning pointed out.

Need more contributions at this point. @Darq, bestwillcui... Bueller, Bueller? @Guyett, why no vote? @The Garantula, do you not agree with my logic regarding Wazza, Fegelein?



Fixed quote tags. Preview is your friend. ;) ~~NS
Last edited by Nobody Special on Fri Jun 14, 2013 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #82 (isolation #4) » Fri Jun 14, 2013 3:53 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 80, JasonWazza wrote:SO HOW THE FUCK AM I SCUM AGAIN?
Getting defensive and not actively scumhunting, check. Why so mad? My logic on voting for you is based on your shaky grounds BW vote swap, not based on a joke you made. I already explained that I thought the joke was a scummy move, but not enough so to warrant a vote. You still haven't explained why you think Cabd was not making a joke, tell us more.
In post 79, Guyett wrote:I have a few ideas at who I want to vote for and currently as I have already stated Cabd is the most suspicious to me but I expect that might change over the next while.
Guyett, what are your ideas and reasons? And same question to you that I posed to Jason above. Why do you think it was not a joke?
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Post Post #83 (isolation #5) » Fri Jun 14, 2013 4:08 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 81, TheGarantula wrote:Explain what differentiates their accusations from yours.
I have explained the logic (Multiple RVS votes, even if it may be flawed) for my vote, still waiting on some semi-serious explanations for multiple votes other than RVS.
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Post Post #117 (isolation #6) » Sun Jun 16, 2013 4:39 am

Post by Derivan »

Spoiler: Bunch of Responses
In post 98, goodmorning wrote: How do you account for the levity factor of RVS? Multivoting in RVS is hardly a scumtell.
@goodmorning
I applied logic to the posts that were made during RVS in order to come up with my vote rather than throw out a random RVS vote myself. Your initial post was full of votes, which I did find somewhat suspicious. However, you also have asked a lot of questions and did not change your final vote from your first post during the RVS stage.

I haven't played on this site before and I understand I may be applying to much weight to RVS vote swapping. I appreciate those who have respectfully disagreed with my conclusions instead of calling my application of logic "stupid".
In post 90, JasonWazza wrote:Check my meta i tend to get pissed at people who make shit up
@JW
I did check your meta and you tend to be more of a douche when you are town and are generally play more reserved when you are mafia. Based on this I am leaning more town on you. What is keeping you pretty low on that list is the fact that you haven't been scum hunting. Before I called you out on it you had asked questions of two people. Me and GM.

@Fegelein
Looks like you made an OMGUS vote there. Have any other explanation?
In post 86, Fegelein wrote:Derivan's cases against me and Jason make absolutely no sense, and his posting style is now coming across as manufactured.

UNVOTE: Cabd
VOTE: Derivan
I had already explained my logic when you posted:
In post 70, Fegelein wrote:Derivan is stumbling over his words a bit, but he's not overly scummy.

In post 88, Fegelein wrote:Cabd strikes me as somebody who'd bus their partners early, so a Cabd/Dev team could be possible.

Either way, they're my top 2 early scum reads.

Leaning Town on Jason, but may need to re-evaluate.
I'd like to hear your re-evaluation of JW and how Cabd strikes you as somebody who'd bus their partners, is this a meta read?
In post 99, Cabd wrote:So I live in fresno, and it was 108 F outside today and I had zero air conditioning since it broke. Finally cool enough to stand turning on electronics, so catching up, sorry all.
@Cabd
Power go out? Like to hear your thoughts.
In post 112, Guyett wrote:Lol I just read up on WIFOM. I dont know if that would be a good strategy for a mafia person or not though.
@Guyett
Please tell me that was a joke and you didn't just double WIFOM after reading about WIFOM? Trying to give you the benefit of the doubt and chalking it up to you not realizing that this kind of circular logic is not going to get us anywhere.
In post 93, TheGarantula wrote:Most of you seen to be voting Cabd over his "reaction test" even though Fegelein also claims to have placed a semi-serous vote for the same reason and isn't taking any heat. Why the discrepancy?
@Gar
Why do you think my application of logic is more scummy than the reaction tests from Cabd and Fegelein? Also like to hear your reads on everyone else.

@bestwillcui
Still waiting for something, anything.

@Darq
Do you need a replacement?


TL;DR
Based on JW's meta, UNVOTE: JasonWazza until I hear from Cabd, bestwillcui, and Darq.


Fixed quote tags. Preview is your friend. ;) ~~NS
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Post Post #147 (isolation #7) » Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:34 pm

Post by Derivan »

Spoiler: bestwillcui, part 1
In post 126, bestwillcui wrote:
In post 122, JasonWazza wrote:
UNVOTE: Cabd
VOTE: bestwillcui
FoS: Cabd


the "it was a reaction test" line is old.
OK, so now you vote me for reaction testing.

Anyway, here's my read on the players:

Darq - Hardly active, 2 posts don't tell much. Possibly lurking, a scum trait.

Derivan - Not very active either, possibly lurking a little bit, but not sure. Leaning scum[/qoute]

@best
Your last post (11 lines of original text) is the most you have contributed so far (average is two lines per post) and still did not contain reads on everyone. There is a difference between actively posting filler and content. You haven't done either.

Spoiler: bestwillcui, part 2
[quote="In post 126

Cabd - Not sure, some scummy behavior and some town-like behavior

Guyett - An interesting character. Seems like a newb but doesn't play so newb-ishly at sometimes[/quote]

@best
What is your read on Guyett, besides him being "interesting"?

Spoiler: bestwillcui, part 3
[quote="In post 126]
JasonWuzza - An interesting playing style, gets mad a lot. I don't know why you are voting me for saying that I was reaction testing, possibly a bandwagon, but I'm not sure. Leaning scum.

These are just my opinions as of now. I will re-read the thread and re-evaluate.[/quote]
@best
What are your reasons for leaning scum on JW? Why do you lean town of Fegelein and scum on JW? Appears to be OMGUS since you haven't applied any logic and you didn't even mention Guyett's vote...interesting. Care to explain?

Spoiler: TheGarantula
In post 131 wrote:Fegelein and Cabd both were just trying to apply pressure to otherwise unsubstantial RVS votes on less active players to get the game moving.
In post 134, TheGarantula wrote:Who do you find scummy? You seem to have moved on from Wazza but do you still suspect Fegelein at all?

@Gar
I have gathered that the logic I used early on applied to much weight to early RVS voting. I've started applying more weight to reading ISOs and looking for mentions of other players. My logic here is that any distancing (or unwillingness to produce reads/vague reads) might be a scum tell we can tease out early on and use later. I would appreciate thoughts on this.

Fegelein still seems suspicious to me. Not based on my original logic, but now based on his reactions.

You raise a lot of good points in your post.

Spoiler: Goodmorning
In post 132, goodmorning wrote:I see. I think it may have been surprising to me because I've seen too much steadfastness in voting called a scumtell before. Personally I am of the opinion that it tends more to personal playstyle, but YMMV.

@goodmorning
I am starting to see that there is a higher probability that it is personal playstyle (where meta is helpful) and have adjusted my weighting accordingly. Once your brain solidifies again, would like to hear some more of your thoughts on bestwillcui and Guyett.

Spoiler: Cabd
In post 139, Cabd wrote:I don't recall being on your time table.

That said, Derivan's lack of reaction to his L-2 wagon is somewhat alarming to me.

And don't think your total wall of text makes you town in my eyes. I hate players posting walls for the sake of posting walls.

The use of "you" when talking about other players is very weird. If I had past games of yours to go on, I'd compare your tone, but since this is a newbie game, I'm unable to.

@Cabd
I have attempted to respond to all of the questions posed to me and to explain my reasoning. You've posted mostly filler (average of 2 lines of text per post). Can you please provide reads on everyone? I'd prefer a wall of text from you at this point rather than triple posts. It might contain something above and beyond "this or that is pinging my scumdar".
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Post Post #191 (isolation #8) » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:16 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 178, bestwillcui wrote:I'm lurking?
Yes and until you expand on post #149 or otherwise provide some content.

VOTE: bestwillcui

Current reads from town to scum
townread
TheGarantula
goodmorning
Guyett
nullread
Darq
JasonWazza
Fegelein
scumread
Cabd
bestwillcui
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Post Post #197 (isolation #9) » Tue Jun 18, 2013 2:41 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 196, Guyett wrote:I don't really understand? I just asked if it was time for a hammer soon? How exactly does that make me scum aligned? I'm quite sure Best is scum and I'm quite positive I'm town aligned... however if you need proof by all means lynch me.
I would however refer people to post 183 :)
Continued discussion is pro-town. Asking if it is time to hammer is suspicious especially since we still haven't even heard from Darq (or Darq's replacement) at all. Your last couple of posts definitely have me concerned. You can't bounce back and forth between "I don't know any better" and "Only those who know better will understand my advanced scum hunting moves" and not expect to be called out for it. It looks wishy-washy or poorly played at best.
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Post Post #257 (isolation #10) » Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:38 am

Post by Derivan »

Still waiting to hear from ryhx. Will provide responses to posts and provide an updated read list after.

In the meantime.

@GM
How do you explain suggesting a second day vote deal with the scummiest person on your readlist?
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Post Post #317 (isolation #11) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 7:41 am

Post by Derivan »

And the lights are back on. Reading through the recent posts and catching up.
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Post Post #319 (isolation #12) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 8:40 am

Post by Derivan »

Spoiler: GM
In post 285, goodmorning wrote:Basically he answered capably enough to clear up most of the points of contention I had with him, and a shift in gut had a bit to do with that. He's still in my scumpool though (a fancy way of saying "scummiest ranked (# of mafia in the game +1)" or, for this setup "the bottom 3")
@GM: Feg cleared up most of the points of contention. Which ones did he not clear up enough for you?

Spoiler: best
In post 108, bestwillcui wrote:Personally, I believe that Guyett is playing the newb card, a scum trait.
In post 119, bestwillcui wrote: Anyway, you could just be newb.
@everyone: Best calling other people newbs doesn't lend to the 'just a newb' theory, even though his actions/responses I agree appear newbish. It almost feels to me that he is being coached to appear more newb than he his. Anyone disagree?

Spoiler: Cabd
In post 218, TheGarantula wrote:It isn't like I posted 5 minutes after you wondering where the rest of your case was. It's been 6 hours and you haven't made a wall or a series of posts; you just made one. Why would you start to make a case without finishing? What point does that serve?
In post 307, Cabd wrote:Fair enough. Off to bed. Will attempt serious ISOing tomorrow, hopefully wallpost done by tuesday.
@Cabd: You still haven't responded to post #147, Gars questions, or really provided any content besides general strategy according to Cabd. Been waiting on that wall/reads post since page 5 so I'll believe it when I see it. I feel more comfortable voting for you today.


TL;DR
GM your posts regarding Feg continue to give me pause.
The 'Best = total newb' case has issues, but Cabd's continued stalling has moved him to scummiest on my read list.
VOTE: Cabd
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Post Post #348 (isolation #13) » Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:04 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 345, goodmorning wrote:I keep rereading the last few posts but none of them make sense.
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Post Post #352 (isolation #14) » Tue Jun 25, 2013 12:20 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 351, Fegelein wrote:You guys seriously need to look at how opportunistic Dev is.

Honestly, I have no idea what's going on with Guyett and Cabd. I'd rather Cabd than Guy because Guy townslipped earlier on, and it's based on gut.
Standard no proof accusation filler post, check.

How about you take more than five seconds and explain your 'gut' feeling/provide some real content.
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Post Post #414 (isolation #15) » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:05 pm

Post by Derivan »

Took a fresh look at everything from page 1, here are actual ISOs and reads, not promises. Disclaimer: I have deleted out non-relevant parts of quoted posts to cut down filler.

Spoiler: Guyett ISO
In post 110, Guyett wrote:Yes but why would I bring attention on to myself like I did in the post below if I was Scum?
I can assure you I am not scum... but I am not a very useful townie either :(
In post 112, Guyett wrote:Lol I just read up on WIFOM. I dont know if that would be a good strategy for a mafia person or not though.
This is a classic WIFOM argument that turned into a DOUBLE WIFOM argument and also appears like a vanilla breadcrumb/claim. You later claim the DOUBLE WIFOM was a joke, even though you admit that it looked very scummy.
In post 110, Guyett wrote:
bestwillcui
- Another lurker. I suspect one of the mafia will be one of our lurkers and another will probably be either the most active or the second most active poster who spends their rime dodging suspicion and
my bus
their partner as a technique to hide his/her scummyness.
Just noticed this...missed the 'a' in 'may' which turned "may bus their partner" into "my bus". Most likely a typing error, but turning over all stones here.
In post 110, Guyett wrote: Cabd - Active until people called him up on his 'joke' and then disappeared for a few hours to think things over? Tbh I'm getting a bit of a scum read here. I agree with the bussing comment that someone made.
@Guyett
I never understood this. Why did you agree that Cabd was more likely than any other player to bus his scum partner? You never provided a reason.
In post 110, Guyett wrote: Fegelein - semi experienced player and your later non burnout related posts make sense.
@Guyett
Would like to see an ISO of Fegelein by you that explains how his posts "make sense".
In post 144, Guyett wrote: bestwillcui - so far comes off as the scummyiest one due to the posts over the last 24 hrs or so
Understandable.

Cabd - I am still very suspicipus of Cabd
Agreed.

Derivan - getting a slight scum read here
Reason?

Fegelein - slight town read, on SM's radar which is interesting though
This was after Fegelein's OMGUS vote on me and shaky grounds claim that my posts seemed "manufactured".

TheGarantula - medium town read. more logical posting and I can see why he has targeted me. all the wifom was entirely accidental and could look pretty bad lol
Agreed that it does look pretty bad. Seems like a play to write it off as inexperience, which is strange since a few posts before you made the case that you were only inexperienced on this site.

JasonWazza - town read so far. experienced player who is playing slightly abrasively and calling out people on tells. this activity seems similar to styles in old games of his
You parroting my meta read.

goodmorning - town read for reasons already stated by me and garantula.
At this point I did agree with you. This was before GM started making some extremely questionable moves.
This is interesting. You talk about reading JW's meta in the above post and then:
In post 152, Guyett wrote:@Jason how do I see meta's?
Either you didn't know what meta stood for (even through I mention in my post that I read through his previous games and was making a "meta" read) or this confirms you were parroting my meta read and never read through JW's previous games. Why would you lie about that? Doesn't make much sense and then:
In post 271, Guyett wrote: JasonWazza (SE) - I've been looking at some of your other games and your playing style would tend to indicate town.
You had already said you read through his games days before. WTF.
In post 196, Guyett wrote:I don't really understand? I just asked if it was time for a hammer soon? How exactly does that make me scum aligned? I'm quite sure Best is scum and I'm quite positive I'm town aligned... however if you need proof by all means lynch me.
I would however refer people to post 183 :)
In post #222 you respond to me calling you out for wishy-washy play. Your explanation was satisfactory for me. However I dislike like that you used a "if you need proof by all means lynch me" argument.
In post 271, Guyett wrote: goodmorning (IC) - Right now I would not be surprised if you flipped scum but I have you null at the moment. There have been lots of promises of read lists and whatnot with out any thing coming which is firing up the flashing red lights for me. Null read for now until you post a good readlist :]
Interesting.
In post 338, Guyett wrote:Best can wait, Cabd is annoying me now

UNVOTE:
VOTE: cabd
Did you really use 'annoying' as a reason? You should have just stated that this was a OMGUS vote.
In post 358, Guyett wrote:I'd be willing to bet that only 1 from Cabd and Best is actually scum.... my money is on Cabd at the moment.

from the other 6 players the only one that I'm relatively confident that is town is Gar.
I have a light town read on Jason and an even lighter one on GM
Feg, Deri and Rhyx are all null. However from experience one of those 3 and possibly GM will prob turn out to be scum. We just have to wait until one hopefully gives us a scumtell
Your math here is fucking terrible.


Conclusion: Poorly played, null read.
@Guyett
What are your thoughts on Cabd finally delivering?

Gar ISO read

I have no points of contention with Gar's posts, besides the TRIPLE POST (totally your fault). :)

Conclusion: Active scum hunting, town read.

Spoiler: Cabd ISO
In post 141, Cabd wrote:The in-the-spoiler text is different for goodmorning if you look carefully. He uses "you" "yours" "your" etc in all his spoiler text but "he" in goodmorning's.

Please come back to this post later if one of them flips scum.
In post 195, Cabd wrote:What you just did. Essentially claiming your role is scum-aligned. 'cuz it is.
In post 198, Cabd wrote:Okay, you're totally wavering caught scum now, guylett.


Conclusion: After re-reading Cabd the things that really stick out as scummy to me are his blanket assertions and claims without support. Now that he has posting actual content (with support no less) I am less sure that he is scum. I dislike claims of "Meatworld" issues when you keep promising content. If you know your schedule and don't have time to post ISOs and readlists, DONT SAY YOU ARE GOING TO POST THEM AND THEN NOT DELIVER. That being said I can't see any scum motivation in providing promises and not delivering since this would naturally cast suspicion. The only motivation I can think of would be to somehow cause a non-vote. Since Cabd has now delivered, the latter seems less likely.

@Cabd wagoneers
What are your thoughts on Cabd's recent contributions?

From scum to null read.

UNVOTE: Cabd

Spoiler: Rhyx ISO
In post 266, ryhx wrote:Finally caught up. My wall of text, as promised.

cabd
:
I didn't have a problem with his fake out at the start, but his jumping on other people for fairly small things while not following through (he never did tell us what he was going for with the activity tell exactly) with anything (except guyett) along with the way he picks at one player at a time gives me bad vibes. Also I dislike anyone who calls upon their meta as proof. Potential scum.
@Rhyx
Could it also be laziness? After reading my conclusion above what are your thoughts?
In post 266, ryhx wrote:
fegelein
:
this may be dragging up dead horses to flog, but i though his gambit in rvs seemed scummier then cabd's. Firstly, the way he piggy-backed on cabd's gambit, secondly (as pointed out by goodmorning), the really poor execution of it. How was he expecting for an L-2 with just 'semi-serious'? How was that supposed to trigger a reaction from Derivan? And giving up?
It was a poor gambit and it seems more like scum trying to stir shit rather then scumhunting from town. Though he has excused it away as burnout, I will have to go back and check whether he's executed better gambits in other games before I take his word on it. I'll leave his as potential-scum until I do.

goodmorning
: Maybe its the nature of an IC, has a feel of more commentor then participant. I don't have a good read on her, but please answer this: up to you've mostly been on Feg's case, but then you suddenly throw out a vote for cabd with no explanation and cabd hadn't posted anything since your previous post. Why and what happened? You continuing implying cabd's scummy in your subsequent posts but you never give any reason for it.
Agree with these reads.
In post 266, ryhx wrote:
guyett
: the newbie who's not really a newbie. That he feels the need to keep mentioning that he's town is pinging me. He is also constantly badgering people to post entire read lists, which is a little annoying, and maybe he's scum trying to feel up other people's positions. Because he's mostly been non-committal about his reads, see where he basically ended with 'but it could be anyone'.
In post 365, ryhx wrote: Decided
VOTE: GUYETT

The OTT reaction to being ISO'd (halfway even, without much new information) screams panicked scum. Puts up an ISO that mostly restates what happens and has some specious reasoning to it thats really reaching.
@Rhyx
Couldn't this also be indicative of poor play? I think your initial read was spot on.

Troubling to me is that GM admits to you that she is a 'defense expert' and then you shift your vote. What made you reconsider?
In post 266, ryhx wrote:
jasonwazza
: I don't think his aggressive play is indicative of anything other then style. Don't have much to say other than as a whole his posting feels pro-town and that's where I'm putting him.

thegarantula
:
He's really combing posts to find scum, I'm in agreement that this guy is town.
Agree, agree.
In post 385, ryhx wrote:And with Derivan popping in out of the blue..everyone looks scummy :facepalm: I need to get off work and read again.
Cabd has been at the top of my scum reads and with best appearing more and more like a six year old trying to play "My First Little Game Of Mafia" I shifted my vote to the next scummiest on my list.

See:
In post 191, Derivan wrote:
Current reads from town to scum
townread
TheGarantula
goodmorning
Guyett
nullread
Darq
JasonWazza
Fegelein
scumread
Cabd
bestwillcui


Conclusion: Active scum hunting, good use of logic, leaning town on Rhyx

Will complete the rest soon.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #16) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:46 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 422, ryhx wrote:Quick notes on derivan:

His jump on cabd seemed sudden and quick and it felt like hes jumping in, in protection of guyett. Now that he's caught flack he's reversed his reads.

Also its rather funny that he should jump in and declare cabd's stalling and is scum when we've also been waiting for derivan's promised reads since several days ago.
I called him out for wishy-washy play and how asking about hammering looked bad. I think he has made some very poor plays, but could not find a scum motivation in his moves after re-reading him. I still don't think he is scum at the moment, but with his poor play/confusing moves I moved him down to a null read in Post 414.

Was it not logical for me to move my vote to the next scummiest person on my read list? You shifted your vote from GM to Guyett in a very similar manner after putting them both on your list of potential scum in Post 266 (where you also called Cabd scummy) after stating that GM cleared up your questions about her. Pot, kettle.

Cabd had been stalling for over a week and there have been multiple people calling him out on in. Post 257 I made just before you replaced in, then the site went down. As soon as I saw the site was back up I made Post 319. I did reverse my read of Cabd and have moved him to a null read due to the content of his last posts.

@Rhyx
When have I ever put anything but a slight town read on Guyett? Where did I promise reads where I did not follow through on? What reason do you have to misrep?

I will finish up with the rest of my ISOs and reads tonight.
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Post Post #425 (isolation #17) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:32 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 418, Guyett wrote:Ok Cabd I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt for the time being. There's a lot of good logical points raised
UNVOTE: cabd

I'll need to think on stuff but I'd be leaning towards Best or Deri for now.
Interesting. At the very beginning of the game you gave me a slight scum read for the RVS logic, the in post 271 you moved me to null. In post 358 you again gave me a null read. Now you have reversed your read and have me down as scum. To quote you:
In post 325, Guyett wrote:So I went from null to scummiest.... :facepalm:
@Guyett
Would love to hear some actual evidence and support for your latest reads. Why do you think Cabd is no longer scummy? Why do you still find best scummy?
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Post Post #434 (isolation #18) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:05 am

Post by Derivan »

Spoiler: Feg ISO
Early posts - Mentions having burnout and brings it up more than once.
Post 56 - Poor explanation of "Semi-serious" vote for me. Changes vote to Cabd.
Post 67 - Changes opinion on Cabd, but does not switch vote.
Post 70 - Repeat of his poor explanation without any further support.
Post 86 - Makes up new reason for shifting his vote back to me. States it is because of "Manufactured" style posts.
Post 88 - Points suspicion back at Cabd and makes a claim that he is likely to bus his partner early, without support. Appears to be distancing from JW.
Post 96 - Asks his first question of the game.
Post 104 - Reacts calmly to GM vote, states town read on Guyett.
Post 114 - Unless this post was a joke, I don't understand it.
Post 158 - Restates shaky reasoning for his vote on me, does not provide support. Asks GM again about her vote.
Post 161 - Respond to GM with short non-supported answers. Claim you made a bad move because you are lazy.
Post 182 - Again you continue to point to your burnout posts earlier and claim lazyness.
Post 221 - Restate that you think I am scum, yet provide no further reasoning. Also claim that you think either Cabd or GM are scum. You say you think it is Cabd based on his weak case against Guyett. Interesting since your case is also weak. Pot, kettle.
In post 241, Fegelein wrote: Again, Derivan is scummy for jumping on the wagon without adding anything. Can we have more pressure on this guy?
Then:
In post 256, Fegelein wrote:Also, don't reveal votes as pressure, or they lose their purpose.
Seriously? Pot, kettle. Again.
Post 263 - Defend best, and state that JW looks opportunist for shifting his vote. State that I am scummy again without providing any additional reasoning. States he thinks Cabd is scummy without providing a reason.
Post 351 - Defends Guyett and states I am opportunistic without providing an example. Bases a wagon on Cabd based on Guyett's perceived townslip.
And then nothing for two days.


Conclusion: Either Feg is burned out or he is using that as an excuse to provide a small amount of content. He has contributed very little to the game in the form of reads or substantive analysis. He has stuck to his case on me with very thin (early on suspicious) reasoning. Reading Feg in ISO he does not appear that scummy. However, his interaction with GM appears like it could be a distancing play. I would like to see more content and read lists by him. Without a lot of content to go on at this point I am leaning slightly scum on him.

Spoiler: JW ISO
Early posts - RVS banter
Post 34- Strange semi-serious reasoning that isn't explained.
Post 53- Shift vote to Cabd, make case.
Post 60 to 84 - Responded to vote. Claims a misrep and that he was actively scumhunting which is a stretch.
Post 87 - State would switch vote to me, but think Cabd is more scummy.
Post 90- Call out Guyett for his read on me. Call out Gar for parroting.
Post 101- Comments on game theory. States difference between what Cabd and Feg moves.
Post 103 to 115 - Calls out Guyett for WIFOM. Calls out Cabd for not posting.
Post 121- Explains reasoning on why Cabd and Feg's moves were different and how one was scummy and one was not.
Post 122- Switches vote to best
Post 127- Calls out best for misrep and downplaying
Post 129- States best is downplaying his vote because scum would want it to mean as little as possible. Also called him out for not asking 'why'.
Post 135- Thinks Guyett didn't breadcrumb, just made a general statement. States best and Cabd are scummy, best scummier.
Post 138- Calls Cabd out for non-supported scum claim.
Post 145- Calls out best for non-supported read list.
Post 146- Calls out best for parroting Gar.
Post 151- Calls out best for stating that he bandwagon jumped.
Post 172- Calls out Guyett for townread of GM.
Post 174- States GM might be earning cheap town points for questioning the town read on herself.
Post 176- Calls out best for lurking and not providing content.
Post 238- Calls GM out for not posting read list. Calls out Cabd for not being able to name tells.
Post 252- Calls out Cabd for posting fluff.
Post 260- Requests hammer on best.
Post 261- Makes case for best hammer.
Post 308- States Cabd pointing out a town slip is scummy. States to best, no reason to crumb.
Post 353- Shifts vote to Cabd. States he is trying to make Guyett look scummy when he is not.
Post 378- Defends vote shift.
Post 380- Calls out Gar for defending Cabd
Post 387- Asks what scum motivation there is for playing the newb. Makes up statistic to support.
Post 390 to 415 - Calls out Cabd for not posting.
Post 428- Reluctantly shifts vote back to best.


Conclusion: JW builds a strong case against best and then switches to Cabd. He is then reluctant to shifts back to best or he wants to appear to be reluctant to shift back. This seems odd given his previously strong built case, but could be benign given the wishy-washy play of best. Otherwise his actions seem generally pro-town. He doesn't ask too many questions, but rather calls people on their moves or challenges them on their reads. I have him down as a null read.

These are taking awhile, going to post this for now and continue working on best and GM, should be done soon, will also post a summary at the end.
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Post Post #439 (isolation #19) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:10 pm

Post by Derivan »

Spoiler: best ISO
Post 108- Calls out Guyett for "playing the newb" which he claims is a scum trait. Downplays his own suspicion.
Post 118- Calls out Guyett for WIFOM, then unvotes him.
Post 126- Posts read list. Calls out Darq for lurking. Calls me out for lurking. Gives GM a town read. Gives Cabd a null read. Gives Guyett an "interesting" read. Gives JW a scum read. Gives Gar a town read. Gives Feg a town read. Scant reasoning for all reads.
Post 149- Calls out JW for jumping BW. States Guyett is less scummy for posting.
Post 175- Asks why he is being called scum.
Post 178- Asks why people think he is lurking.
Post 219- Asks if he should role-claim.
Post 223- Responds to Guyett, states that he knows what a hammer is.
Post 226- Requests people not to hammer, until giving an intent to hammer.
Post 229- Promises read list, states he can't right now due to being on his phone at camp. :facepalm:
Post 254- Follows through with read list. Gives a null read on JW (kinda). Null read on Rhyx. Gives town to null at worst read for GM. Gives town to null at worst read for Feg (I guess?). Questions Fegs case against me, yet gives me a slight scum read and states I'm lurking. Gives Guyett a null read (I guess?). Say the wagon on Cabd seems over. Gives a scum read on him. States Gar's reasoning is flawed, provides no support or reason. Gives slight town read. Does not vote, says nobody is THAT scummy.
Post 254- States if someone hammers that they will be bussed next day. Requests people wait until he roleclaims to hammer.
Post 289- Asks if he is allowed to breadcrumb.
Post 310- Asks JW why there is no reason to breadcrumb.
Post 321- Votes for Guyett without providing a reason beyond his scummiest read.
Post 343- States his vote for Guyett is because I was lurking and then started posting. No other reason given.
Post 375- States his scumread on me was for lurking (I think?). States he knew there was going to be a big wagon on Cabd and didn't want to start it. States his votes on JW were OMGUS. States Guyett appears to be more scummy.
Post 392- Votes for me, states it is due to lurking. Puts a FoS on Guyett.
Post 396- States that his vote for me was a pressure vote. Wants to wait for Cabd's post.
Post 398- Suggests that we lynch Cabd if he doesn't deliver. If not someone else, most likely this means me since he is currently voting for me.
Post 420- States he no longer thinks Guyett is suspicious because he could have made lots of "site newb" mistakes.

In post 433, TheGarantula wrote:I don't really think that was a PR slip, it seemed more like a newbie who's close to being lynched flailing about.
Conclusion: best has provided little content and given scant reasoning for his moves. Since this is a newb game that could point in either direction. He could be a fool or 'playing the fool'. I am willing to take the risk at this point vs. having a no-lynch. best is not my scummiest read, but is certainly the worst player.

VOTE: bestwillcui

Will finish with GM tomorrow, hopefully before the deadline. Got to sleep.
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Post Post #453 (isolation #20) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:32 pm

Post by Derivan »

Bulletproof.
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Post Post #538 (isolation #21) » Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:22 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 489, Cabd wrote:If best flips town, deri is pretty much confoscum, IMO.
@Cabd
Explain yourself.

Also, I checked Jason's Meta earlier in the game and already posted what read I had based on that.

@Guyett
:facepalm:
In post 524, ryhx wrote:Feg: null read, needs investigating.
Agreed.


GM: convenient timing coming in after the hammer. Content has been rather lackluster as we neared deadline and never did posts those reads.
Agreed. GM is currently my scummiest read for reasons I will explain in my ISO. I will post that tomorrow since it is not possible for me to be NK'd tonight.


Cabd: crazy spam posting. really jumped into town mode.
Or wants to look town. Interesting time to start contributing.


Jason: Depends on bests flip. If best is scum, I don't think so because that would have been one heck of a bus. If best is town, definitely on the scum side. he's been on bests case forever.
Agreed.


Gar: town. so town.
Concur.


Deri: I think what i posted (from him) was a town slip and i'll wait and see what comes from his role claim.

Guyett: Scummy, scummy if best is town. His drunk posting is coherent and seems to understand whats going on but i will let him defend himself when he's less drunk.
Agreed.
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Post Post #566 (isolation #22) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:34 am

Post by Derivan »

Alright here is the last of the promised ISOs

Spoiler: GM ISO
- RVS post, ends up voting for Feg
- Comment towards
Cabd

- Responds to Feg's and JW semi-serious votes with "Kay"
- Downplays activity tells
- Quick comment on player names
- Again downplays activity tells
- Tells
Cabd
it looks like he is using an activity tell
- Respond to my RVS logic post, state that
Cabd
's MOD info post appeared to be a joke to you, ask Feg a question about his semi-serious reason, state you have light town read on Gar.
- Reply to JW's questioning your town read reasons
- V/LA
- Question Guyett's town read on you, question my RVS logic, state you are getting 'scumfeels' from me, then reply to JW stating that my use of logic is a 'sensible proposition'.
- Give Guyett a slight town read, again defend my use of logic
- State you are not treating Guyett like a newb, state lurking is partly a scum tell, state you think steadfast voting can be scumtell.
- State my posts make you uncomfortable, restate light townread on Guyett, state
Cabd
's voting reasons are weird and that you are flipfloping on whether he is scum or not, states
best
is being scummy in derpnewbtown ways, explains reason for Feg vote, give read list as follows:
TOWN
Garantula
Guy
Jason
NULL
Darq
best

Deri
NULL
Cabd

Feg
SCUM
- Explain how you use NULL as bounds, explain reason for null read of best
- Repost of reasons for voting Feg
- State what was missing from your readlist (I made correction above)
- Respond to Feg
- Respond to
Cabd
, state you disagree with changing pronouns slip, but like the argument.
- Respond to Feg, provide examples of why you have him as scum, then ref. Gar's post and switch your vote to
Cabd
.
- Promise a read list
- State if
Cabd
doesn't flip scum you would be very suprised
- Continue case against
Cabd

- Continue case against
Cabd

- State
Cabd
is an experienced player and using a Meta argument against him would be stupid
- Continue case against
Cabd

- Promise read list again
- Give excuse on why you haven't posted read list. State it is pretty much the same as your last one.
- Explain why you haven't jumped on
best
BW, make trade deal with Feg where
Cabd
gets hung then me
- Tell
Cabd
to post if he doesn't want to get lynched
- State
best
looks newbtown, call out Feg, state reasons (ends justify means, that you now think Cabd is scummy, state I am playing scummy yet provide no how, state that voting through
Cabd
, Feg, and me would provide a good chance of town win) for your trade deal, again promise readlist
- Comments on
best
's wishy-washy play
- Give Gar a 'town read coming on', comment that Gar is right about not wanting to leave people at L-1
- State defense is your specialty, state Feg went up the ladder and
Cabd
went down, continue case against
Cabd
, promise readlist yet again
and - N/A
- Question Guyett's slight town read on you
- Respond to Gar, Guyett
- State that Feg now cleared up all but one of your concerns, promise readlist yet again
- State general game theory
- Question that breadcrumbing only helps scum, provide yet another excuse (I lost it) not to post a readlist
- Talk about breadcrumbing
- Still breadcrumbing
- Another breadcrumbing post
- Make case for
best
being newbtown
- State which thing Feg did not clear up, make case that scum/town could both request to extend the day
- Reply to
Cabd

- Reply to
Cabd

- Comment about posts not making sense
- State you will be switching your vote to me soon, provide no reason
- State it's not L-1
- Switch your vote to me, state it is "not a reprieve for
Cabd
", "just a temporary move of vote"
- Again explain we how not at L-1
- Make case against me, refer to your post about my RVS voting, "the way he seems to be hanging out outside game continuity with his posts", and "lacking follow-up"
- Continue case against me stating my posts feel "like an observer just commenting on" the game.
- State IRL issues are legit reasons for not posting
- Ask Gar what his compromise vote is
- State we now will have to "wait and see" on me, state you don't like how quickly the
Cabd
wagon grew and how you want to look at JW in the morning, disagree with
best
proposal to wait for
Cabd
's ISO
- Again state reservations on lynching
best
, and that sole reservation on me is that I am "game more closely than anyone else", state you want
Cabd
lynched, but don't see it happening.
- State that you think I made a scumslip, state you agree with "If best flips scum, we look at jason/feg. If best is town, we look at deri/guy/feg."
- State that you now think
Cabd
is town
- State that you think Feg is suspicious and JW
503-516 - N/A
- State you think associative tells are good
- Make big deal about how you told everyone
best
had PR-slipped, make excuses for not posting after Guyett's drunk hammer
- State you think I am pretty much confirmed town, and again state how you told everyone
best
PR-slipped about crumbing


Conclusion: GM is scum based on the following: The vote swap deal she makes with Feg (one of the scummiest people on the only readlist she provided even after making promise after promise and excuse after excuse not to post another one), her very weak case against me: 1. She states it is based on my RVS voting logic, which she attacks and at the same time defends in post
2. That at first it is only "just a temporary move of vote" but, then suddenly it is "the way he seems to be hanging out outside game continuity with his posts", and "lacking follow-up"
, and her case against
Cabd
. I also think that it is possible that since she knew
best
was going to flip town and she recognized that he likely would be wagoned she made a case for him being town so she would earn town-points. This would explain why why she is blatantly pointed that out in her first two day 2 posts instead of scumhunting. Also I think it is possible that her initial vote and case against Feg was a way to distance her from her scum partner.

That being said.

VOTE: goodmorning
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Post Post #567 (isolation #23) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:40 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 564, TheGarantula wrote:
In post 561, ryhx wrote:Guyett's matyr 'deserved to be lynched, please lynch me' shtick is kind of bugging me.
What I find strange is that he says to policy lynch him multiple times but then switches to "jk plz don't" once people express suspicion of him.
His story is plausible though, here is my read list.

TOWN
Gar
Rhyx
NULL
JW
Guyett
SCUM
Klick
GM
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Post Post #572 (isolation #24) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 6:35 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 571, JasonWazza wrote: Question, is it not possible she is town make a case as to why best was town?
@JW
Anything is possible. However, I think it is very probable that she is scum. This is based on the case I made above, the timing of her posts and the withholding of read lists. I'd like to hear other thoughts from Gar.
In post 568, goodmorning wrote:And my vote move became un-temporary when I changed my mind on Cabd. I apologise if that didn't become clear to you.
Oh the move was very clear. Clearly scummy when read in conjunction with your shady out of the blue vote deal with your scummiest read.
In post 568, goodmorning wrote:
Of course I recognized best would probably flip town, HE FUCKING PR SLIPPED IN THE MOST BLATANT WAY POSSIBLE
Interesting that you keep reminding us of that. AND IN ALL CAPS NO LESS! :roll:
In post 568, goodmorning wrote: I want Klick to talk, then I shall tell you how I feel about the Feg slot once and for all.
What is the hold up? Or is this along the lines of your broken read list promises.
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Post Post #574 (isolation #25) » Wed Jul 03, 2013 6:44 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 572, Derivan wrote:I'd like to hear other thoughts from Gar.
Also from Rhyx.
JasonWazza wrote:Deri, i haven't posted a single reads list, does that make me scum?
You didn't repeatedly promise one, so to me it doesn't appear that you are stalling. I still have a null read on you though for other reasons.
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Post Post #584 (isolation #26) » Thu Jul 04, 2013 7:03 am

Post by Derivan »

goodmorning wrote:Side note that rankles rather a lot: If you're going to treat readslists as the be-all, end-all of Mafia games, I'd like to put this out there: you're gonna have a bad time.
@GM
Rankles, nice word.

Triple post, poor form.

Early in the game your posts seemed logical and well constructed. You questioned players regularly and appeared to have the best interests of the town. Now your posts have turned unnecessarily "I FUCKING TOLD YOU ALL FUCCCKKKK" and you are obviously in a defensive lockdown. Your moves against me, Cabd, and Feg are suspect. Instead of providing logical reasoning for your moves or helping to provide plausible alternative votes, your defense (which you are a self-proclaimed expert in) is seriously lacking. You don't even provide a quote to support your misrepresentation of my use of you not posting a read list in the case against you. Your lack of posting a readlist (which you repeatedly promised) suggests that you were stalling. Other possibilities are that you had IRL issues and couldn't post because of them. There is no evidence to support the second possibility because you made plenty of posts otherwise. It would have taken you considerably less time to post a simple readlist (oh and you promised one before, during, and after the replacement of Darq) then the rest of your posts in-between promises. Cabd was initially suspicious to me for the same reason, however he claimed IRL issues (which you defended) and eventually delivered on his promises. You still have yet to deliver anything but excuses and a logical conclusion is that you have accepted the fact that you are going to be lynched and that you do not want to give the town information to use against your scum partner.

@JW, Gar
What are your thoughts on Guyett's drunk hammer? His explanation seems plausible, but Rhyx does raise some valid points.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #27) » Mon Jul 08, 2013 1:04 pm

Post by Derivan »

Sorry been on vacation and forgot to VLA will catch up soon
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Post Post #637 (isolation #28) » Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:38 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 631, goodmorning wrote:I must say I somewhat prefer the Klick wagon to the Guyett one, and greatly prefer it to the mysterious wagon on myself.

In fact,

Vote: Klick


L-1.
Bus time eh?
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Post Post #638 (isolation #29) » Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:45 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 634, JasonWazza wrote:Then case on Feg?
@GM
Very interested to hear this case too and the reason you want to hang someone for the reason outlined below.
JasonWazza wrote:This has got to be the worst Counter Wagon i have ever seen.

Reasoning behind the wagon: Someone flaked losing us a fair amount of time, BUT THEY FLAKED REGARDLESS OF ALIGNMENT.

Whereas, Guyett has a real reason to be a wagon.
@JW
Why do you think GM is not a good wagon?
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Post Post #641 (isolation #30) » Sat Jul 13, 2013 8:33 pm

Post by Derivan »

OH MY GOSH I WILL TOTALLY TAKE WHAT YOU POST MORE SERIOUSLY WHEN YOU POST IT IN ALL CAPS GM TOTALLY, KEEP IT UP, IT'S SO WORKING.
goodmorning wrote:
In post 634, JasonWazza wrote:Then case on Feg?
Not tonight, but yes.
Stall. Check.
goodmorning wrote:
In post 637, Derivan wrote:Bus time eh?
Deri, please get the fuck off your high fucking "ooh, I'm an un-cc'd PR" horse and try reading the actual game. I've had a scumread on that slot since Day 1. Not my fault nobody wanted to lynch it til now.
Yet you attempted a vote deal with him day 1.
goodmorning wrote: PEDIT: I WILL REPEAT THAT IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH KLICK FLAKING
AT ALL
FUCKING READ, YOU ARE CONFTOWN
CONFTOWN NOT READING COSTS TOWN THE GAME
In post 431, goodmorning wrote: The sole reservation I would have on Deri is that he seems to be reading the game more closely than anyone else, but that could come from either side.
So which is it?

@GM
How about instead of CAPS RAGING you actually make a case and support it with evidence and explain why you are voting for players who are CURRENTLY BEING REPLACED (see what I did there :D ) before hearing from them.

@MOD any chance on the extension due to the replacement?
JasonWazza wrote:
In post 638, Derivan wrote:
JasonWazza wrote:This has got to be the worst Counter Wagon i have ever seen.

Reasoning behind the wagon: Someone flaked losing us a fair amount of time, BUT THEY FLAKED REGARDLESS OF ALIGNMENT.

Whereas, Guyett has a real reason to be a wagon.
@JW
Why do you think GM is not a good wagon?
LRN2READ CONTEXT

I was saying Klick is not a good wagon.
You first?

Yes I read your post and I am asking why you think GM is NOT a good wagon. You state Guyett has a real reason to be a wagon (I agree) and I think GM also has a real reason to be a wagon. Do you agree, disagree, reasons.
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Post Post #770 (isolation #31) » Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:36 am

Post by Derivan »

Not really sure what is going on.

@MOD
I'm here.
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Post Post #772 (isolation #32) » Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:50 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 768, TheIrishPope wrote: Back to L-1 with you.
VOTE: Guyett
And to L-1 with you, lets hear some cases.

VOTE: TheIrishPope
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Post Post #774 (isolation #33) » Wed Jul 17, 2013 9:10 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 771, TheGarantula wrote: @Derivan: Have your reads changed? What do you think of lynching Guyett? I'm fairly certain there isn't going to be a CC at this point so your input as confirmed town is valuable.
My reads haven't changed. The mafia have done a good job at muddying the waters here and we need to take the remaining time to break down each of the cases and look at the voting records. I ask everyone to take a fresh look at the thread (looking at D1 ISOs helps to save time) and post their final read lists and thoughts.

@TIP
I would like to hear your thoughts on every player and a full readlist from town to scum. A fresh read will provide us with a lot of good information.

Also:
In an early post of your you claimed VT. In that post you state that you hadn't yet read the thread and didn't know if your slot had role claimed yet. Why did you risk claiming something before you had even read the thread to confirm? And why would your predecessor have a need to role claim if they were VT?
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Post Post #780 (isolation #34) » Wed Jul 17, 2013 9:34 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 775, TheIrishPope wrote:I saw my predecessor was in a tough spot, so I claimed in case he had not. In any case, it mattered little.
But if Feg had claimed anything other than VT it certainly would have mattered since one of you would have lied in that case. I really don't like your "It doesn't matter now" argument here.
In post 649, TheIrishPope wrote:hello to the people, skimming today and reading tomorrow
Apparently I'm in a bad position, so if Klick didn't claim, I'm claiming: VT
If you were VT it wouldn't matter if Klick had role claimed or not since a VT role claim does not help the town. My question is: if Klick had claimed something other than VT why would you expose yourself to that risk before reading the thread?

You can include the answer to that in a post that exceeds three lines including your read lists and thoughts on each player. Take your time.
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Post Post #829 (isolation #35) » Wed Jul 17, 2013 10:44 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 828, JasonWazza wrote: I would personally, Fake Claim a BP if i was scum for one good reason.
1/2 chance, that there's a tracker.
If i'm wrong in a claim, i pull out any of the following into claiming {Cop, Doctor, Jailkeeper}

THERE IS NO ACTUAL LOSS GIVEN THE SCUMS KNOWLEDGE TO CLAIM A BULLETPROOF.
JW your math here is atrocious. The setup is a 3x3 matrix which gives us 6 possible outcomes. I claimed BP prior to best being revealed as TT. Therefor:

The probability of successfully guessed the setup is less than 17%
The probability of successfully guessing a setup in which best flips TT is a little over 33%

For someone pushing a policy lynch after the "drunk" hammer this is a very interesting conclusion from you.

Now it would be an interesting play for the town doctor to claim BP after the TT or TJ flipped since it would dissuade the mafia from NK'ing.
TheIrishPope wrote:I was hoping you'd bring that up. That raised my suspicion even more. Scum could have even guessed which role was active through rolefishing. 780 confirms this. Derivan might seem confirmed Town to you, but to me, he is nothing.
@TIP
And you are still at L-1 posting three line filler posts. Quit stalling and post content.
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Post Post #890 (isolation #36) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 4:23 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 873, goodmorning wrote:
In post 849, ryhx wrote:But unless someone counter claims, Deri is believable. If someone counter-claims, well at this late stage I'll probably still believe Deri over a counter claimer. It would be some lucky odds for Deri to have guessed right.
If the claim was Doc rather than BP and from a particular player I think I'd believe it over Deri's. Not sharing which as that would be more helpful to Scum that anything.
Interesting how GM quickly jumped from:

1. Buddying (stating I am in all likelyhood CONFTOWN even though "she would really like me not to be")
2. Setting me up for a lynch tomorrow (see above).

@Rhyx, Gar
What are your reservations on lynching GM today?

@TIP
What is the rush? How does hammering right now help us? This is terribly scummy.
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Post Post #892 (isolation #37) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 4:26 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 847, TheIrishPope wrote:Guyett: Scum. This guy started throwing shit at me the second I raised suspicion on his slot.
ryhx: Town. Newbscum would have hammered someone and tried to escape it next day. He is playing logically.
Derivan: Null. HIS CLAIM MEANS NOTHING. Which begs the question: why would a BP claim D1?
TheGarantula: Null. Had a decent case on him when he had to Town it up for himself.
JasonWazza: I don't want to be too quick to call him Town, but he is Null-leaning Town right now.
TheIrishPope: Me!
goodmorning: Wait, who's goodmorning?
It's pretty obvious you haven't even read the thread.
TheIrishPope wrote:What's the difference between hammering now and in 17 hours?
Seriously? :facepalm:
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Post Post #916 (isolation #38) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:28 pm

Post by Derivan »

In post 913, goodmorning wrote:
In post 890, Derivan wrote:Interesting how GM quickly jumped from:

1. Buddying (stating I am in all likelyhood CONFTOWN even though "she would really like me not to be")
2. Setting me up for a lynch tomorrow (see above).
1. You are an un-cc'd pr. That makes you likely confTown. I would really like it if you weren't that PR, because you being Scum would explain why your posts are so scummy.
2. If you think I'm setting you up for a lynch tomorrow you may want to glance over TIP's posts.
3. The only way I'm setting you up for a lynch tomorrow is if we lynch Town today and if you then get cc'd. Are you saying you have knowledge that Guyett is Town?

@Mod: I don't think they were
serious
...
1. There is no likely confTown, there is confTown and not confTown explain how someone can be confirmed, but not confirmed. Completely illogical. What you are saying is that you believe I am scum (on shaky grounds), but the probability of me being town is very high until there is a cc.
2. I know you are setting me up for a lynch. How? Because in your last post you attempted to set me up for a lynch. I've read all of TIPs posts and he is trying to do the same thing (in more of a OMGUS way)...this is not really surprising because since I am BP you cannot NK me and therefor you have to lynch to get rid of me.
3. I appreciate you admitting that you are attempting to set me up for a lynch tomorrow. I stated that you have knowledge of whether or not Guyett is town because you are scum.
TheGarantula wrote:If Guyett is gone, what else is there to discuss?
Would like to hear more from TIP and JW.
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Post Post #956 (isolation #39) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 12:53 pm

Post by Derivan »

Great game Rhyx, really well played.
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Post Post #982 (isolation #40) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 8:46 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 965, Guyett wrote:TBF Deri was acting so scummy Gm had no problem jumping on that wagon, you can see that prediction in the dead quicktopic thread lol
The fuck are you talking about man? Your play was shit the entire game. Drunk hammer? Seriously? And the whole back and forth with TIP which just muddled the water. Explain how my moves were "so scummy" again?
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Post Post #983 (isolation #41) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:02 am

Post by Derivan »

Makes a lot of sense now in hindsight to claim Doctor vs. BP when BP. Obviously would draw the NK, but then again without knowing the set-up could have the possibility of getting caught in a set-up without a Doctor, eh?

@GM
Read to much into the subtle moves you were making. My B.

Had a scum read on JW from day 1, and he remained at the bottom of my list, but with all of the nonsense back and forth between TIP and Guyett was hard to make heads or tails of the actual moves being made. Was easy for Rhyx and JW to sit back and let them continue to muddy the water. Best's play also didn't help much on Day 1.
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Post Post #985 (isolation #42) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:59 am

Post by Derivan »

In post 984, Guyett wrote:Ah its nothing mate.. Just that the town had no problem throwing you under the bus on D3. I think if you were more pro town you could have got Jason lynched instead. It wouldn't have mattered as i think rhyx was too well hidden
I got lynched based on a Counter-claim on day 3, whereas you got lynched based on your play alone.

I made a reserved case for you being town on both Day 1 and 2 Guyett, but couldn't really push it because of how you played. I didn't get a chance to post on Day 3, which points again to overall poor play by the town. I agree that we had a pretty poor chance of getting Rhyx, but JW was a possibility. Overall the mafia played it very well and in the future I think I would consider claiming doctor over BP since claiming BP doesn't really lend to helping to the town (even though the mafia did not get a NK on Night 2, but in this situation it helped them push a lynch on me). However I'm still not really sure that claiming doctor on Day 1 would have helped much either, since JW could have executed the same CC on day 3 after a failed NK on me. Or have executed the same CC on day 2 after a failed NK on me.
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