Newbie 1391 - Game Over - FINALLY!!!

[champinoman]

VOTE: Miss Stranger

I was always told not to trust strangers.

[champinoman]

Lots of activity to wake up to was very nice.

Why bother with day 1. Lets just lynch Miss Stranger now and go from there? We are already onto our first scum.

I thoroughly enjoyed this post because it clearly articulated what I was thinking when I read the exchange between Feel It and Fegelein and was laced with the amount of sarcasm it deserved. And it lead into some interesting responses from Feel It:

Lynching anybody this early would be silly, we need to poke and prod and talk and get reactions, see who seems scummiest before making a decision. Not sure if I should give you benefit of the doubt due to your newness or change my vote now tbh.

VOTE: UNVOTE
I suppose you're right. While your behavior and reaction was odd, it's not as alarming as Gene_Wolf suggesting to lynch you already.

Opportunistic much?

But what gets me is that even though Miss Stranger was apparently less alarming than Gene_Wolf, you still awarded Miss Stranger with a vote yet Gene_Wolf was not worthy of a vote until 4 hours later.

I also liked how you offered the excuse that possibly you should give him the benefit of the doubt due to his newness even though he is a SE and you are a Newbie.

Moving on,

Allowing wagons to form in RVS is a good method to get the game running. We can gauge reactions from James May.

What's your current read on James May then now that the wagon has dissipated?

Best I don't RVS vote anyone because I saw quite a few votes on specific people and my vote could push them too close up the hammer. For the sake of a joke vote just not worth it.

So you wanted to put a

random

vote

specifically

on someone who already had votes on them? Riiiight.

The next exchange can easily be described as Nachomamma firing wild bullets in the direction of Generic hoping one hits. Looks like they all missed to me.

UNVOTE: Antagon.

Vote is on hold until we get some input from other players. My current analysis:
Fegelein: leaning town
Feel It: null
Gen_Wolf: scummy
Antagon: null

Please explain. What made Fegelein look town?
What did Gen_Wolf do that made him scummy?

Why are these reads important enough for your follow up question considering you have ignored the following read on yourself made a lot earlier?

She's fine at L-2.

Antagon is probably Town.

[champinoman]

...
I am also finding it amusing that the way people like to draw attention to things they find off in another player is to sarcastically go 'riiiight' or 'okaaaay' or an equivalent of instead of getting into the meat of it. Why hand wave it away when the more posts you get from someone the more they are likely to scumslip?
...

Even though that paragraph wasn't directed at me I'm assuming that it was referencing me and this comment:

So you wanted to put a

random

vote

specifically

on someone who already had votes on them? Riiiight.

To answer more bluntly this time:

@champinoman, you guys had been on while I was asleep (I'm English) tossed around a lot of votes and unvoted and had I just gone with a funny one on say ten wolf for having half my name I realised I risked putting so done at L-2 in RVS. And if I'm going to spend time seeing who had the most votes before I joke vote someone else to avoid this, what's the point? I may as well forgo it altogether and get on with it.

Upon 1 read through you would have noticed 2 players who had attracted a few votes each and a few names that hadn't been mentioned at all. Why not pick one of the later? So your reasoning for not participating in the RVS is more likely that you do not want to create any links between yourself and anyone else through your vote. Scummy in my opinion.

And a side note: Considering the game started at aprox 1pm (England time) and your first post was at 8.30pm why did you use being asleep as justification for not reading the first phase of voting?

[champinoman]

On the flip side not participating and making a point of saying I won't makes me stand out more. And now you are telling me I have to choose someone in the RVS just to show participation, that's you setting rules to lynch people by, not me. I chose to ignore a phase that was already done and paranoia phase was starting, why turn up late to a party that's already starting to descend into a fight and shout "WHO WANTS TO DANCE!?"

Where I see links generally are when a couple if people think they have something they can exploit to try and push through a mislynch. Two of you really have got issues with my opening post, yet one of you has held off voting me instantly. Would that make it too obvious I wonder.

I have opening suspects, feel free to assume OMGUS btw, but I want to see what you have for your next trick.

I never told you you had to vote for somebody. All I have done is question your motive behind not voting for somebody. Your current explanation just isn't very good.

Can you please clarify which 2 people you are referring to?

And you never did explain your erratic sleeping patterns.

[champinoman]

Before I isolate Generic's comments on me I wanted to point out that Miss Stranger didn't actually edit a post. You can't edit a post on this site. So no need to wonder what she actually edited. She actually says this in post #12.

...
Champinoman – Nice opening RVS vote. backs gen wolfs post #20 even though all explanation to it was shocking. Attempts to put the focus on feel it,

but the stick he uses to beat him with is that he voted for miss stranger over the scummier gen wolf... the same gen wolf he liked the post of at the start of this analysis opener

. From there the analysis gets stronger, and i like both his pressure on me and his equal pressure on nachomamma. Thats not picking a side, thats analysing both our starts to get to a conclusion of who is up to what. Next post is a total focus on me because he clearly isn’t happy with what i have said OR has seen an opportunity to push on something specific, either way he has reverted from a measured view of the back and forth to picking a side quite easily. Interesting buddying process going on there.
Had a strong town lean followed by a scummy focusing post. Need a bit more from him to know whether he leans town or mafia, but based on a strong analytical post there is promise there so leaning town.
...

The underlined section has been misinterpreted by you. My interpretation of Gen_Wolf's post #20 is irrelevant in this instant. I was referring to the way Feel It had interpreted it.

It's apparent you clearly don't like me asking you to justify your words though.

You have also said I have picked a side. And that there is buddying going on. Can you please show me where I have done this?

(Unrelated: Impressive post from a phone Generic!)

[champinoman]

Evening all. Tight pressed for time today but I'll see where I can catch up to.

Spoiler: champinoman

Why bother with day 1. Lets just lynch Miss Stranger now and go from there? We are already onto our first scum.

I thoroughly enjoyed this post because it clearly articulated what I was thinking when I read the exchange between Feel It and Fegelein and was laced with the amount of sarcasm it deserved. And it lead into some interesting responses from Feel It:

Lynching anybody this early would be silly, we need to poke and prod and talk and get reactions, see who seems scummiest before making a decision. Not sure if I should give you benefit of the doubt due to your newness or change my vote now tbh.

VOTE: UNVOTE
I suppose you're right. While your behavior and reaction was odd, it's not as alarming as Gene_Wolf suggesting to lynch you already.

Opportunistic much?

Defending someone who already looks scummy by attacking the attacker. Highlighted as extremely scum in the wiki theory, but I'm totally unsure if I'm supposed to follow that theory word for word. Dully noted. It's also worth to note however that I also find

Feel It

oportunistic, but so was

Gen_Wolf

's suggestion on me. Hence why I think one of them is evil.

Moving on,

Allowing wagons to form in RVS is a good method to get the game running. We can gauge reactions from James May.

What's your current read on James May then now that the wagon has dissipated?

Not sure if sarcastic or merely pointing out what I pointed long time ago.

James

is simply not participating, so the wagon is useless. Given there were people with RVS votes on them, most notably me, who also showed early activity, a wagon on one of us would have been better - unless

Antagon

was attempting to provoke him into play. I'm probably overanalysing it. That said, I'm also not happy with

James

's absence because I can't tell for sure if there's two mafia amongst the 7 active or just one (if

James

is mafia).

Best I don't RVS vote anyone because I saw quite a few votes on specific people and my vote could push them too close up the hammer. For the sake of a joke vote just not worth it.

So you wanted to put a

random

vote

specifically

on someone who already had votes on them? Riiiight.

The next exchange can easily be described as Nachomamma firing wild bullets in the direction of Generic hoping one hits. Looks like they all missed to me.

It is uncomfortable however that

Nachomamma8

simply tossed a brief comment on my defence and then focused on exclusively on

Generic

.

Why are these reads important enough for your follow up question considering you have ignored the following read on yourself made a lot earlier?

Antagon

is not the only one here with selective reading.

So many questions here that weren't directed at you but you felt you needed to answer. The most interesting one for me is the first exchange. Why is it that when I question the reasons behind what

Feel It

has asked that you need to bring your thoughts on

Gen_Wolf

into it? I don't need you coming in and trying to make the waters murky.

And I feel that you were worried about that being it's own post so you added in the next 3 replies which don't really bring any content to the discussion in the hope it wasn't so obvious.

Just read a little further down the page and you do the same thing in post #70.

Feg, I'm trying to be a bit more cautious this time because the last game i played I jumped the gun on a lynch

that costed me the game

>_> (was town that game btw) and I don't have solid reads on anyone but the questions was merely out of curiosity to see their reasoning. Better to survey the area from afar (well for me at least since I am trying to stop jumping the bullet for long phases like this :/ Use to playing 48-96 hour day phases and it requires a bit of on your feet kind of thing...)

*IF* you are town and you manage to either get yourself lynched or nightkilled wouldn't you prefer that you helped out before dying?

And the bolded part is interesting. You know that you, as a dead townie (in that game), still win if town wins right? This is a team game not a solo quest.

And what erratic sleep pattern?

One of your first posts, and my question:

...

@champinoman, you guys had been on while I was asleep (I'm English) ...
...

...

And a side note: Considering the game started at aprox 1pm (England time) and your first post was at 8.30pm why did you use being asleep as justification for not reading the first phase of voting?

I'm waiting to hear your explanation because currently it seems like a pretty poorly constructed excuse.

Spoiler: Nachomamma post #85

But what gets me is that even though Miss Stranger was apparently less alarming than Gene_Wolf, you still awarded Miss Stranger with a vote yet Gene_Wolf was not worthy of a vote until 4 hours later.

I agree with this. Especially since this:

Yeah, I changed my vote later because I didn't realize at the time he is an SE.

Doesn't really explain it that well.

If you are not satisfied with the explanation then that means if I hadn't done that RVS would have been longer, would you have liked RVS to be longer? Plus you have given quite a nice reaction to a reaction test.

What was his reaction and what did you get from it?

Yes I am very serious. Just because you have more posts does not make you more involved. It could just mean your posting more fluff.

That's true, but it's a useless statement unless he IS posting more fluff, which you're sort of indirectly hinting at but not actually saying.

I liked Generic's #61. I feel those sorts of things are overkill on page 3, but my perception of him as passive, coasting scum is clearly wrong.

It's also worth to note however that I also find Feel It oportunistic, but so was Gen_Wolf's suggestion on me. Hence why I think one of them is evil.

Why just one?

He's sort of sitting back and just asking questions instead of providing real counter arguments against people.

Explain.

You know what, screw bolding, can't be bothered anymore.

(thank god)

Nice long post. Pity there is no content in it. I could summarise this entire post as 'Reiterate a few things already said, point out some really obvious stuff and deflect any possibility of offering my own opinion by asking a return question. Your next few posts over the next hour are very similar too.

Because lists like this should be posted with at least

some

reasoning behind it.
I ignored the read on Feel It and myself because everyone starts out being read as null. As the game goes on, it becomes easier to get reads on players.

That's not what I asked. I asked why you felt you needed to clarify post #29 by Miss Stranger but you didn't feel the need to clarify post #17 by Fegelein. Here is the post bolded for convenience:

She's fine at L-2.

Antagon is probably Town

.

Considering the above was a read on yourself I find it hard to accept you missed it.

Don't clear anybody and guaranteed town, the ones slipping up on their words occasionally are more likely town than the completely clean players. Townies don't vet their posts, scum do more often than not. So a town player won't realise or care to notice if a comment seems scummy, a mafia player will ensure every comment has purpose.

Did your scum buddy make a silly error that you are hoping to sweep under the mat with this? Seems like an odd addition to your post.

ok, that's up to post #99. I need to sleep now though.

[champinoman]

Then I have an incorrect impression champino. I have looked at the DATE, it was Sunday... I'm a father if three... It was Father's Day on Sunday, so forgive my lack if interest in logging into this over enjoying family time.

I generally assume when I come in late to a lot of posts it's cos the majority of you are Americans. And I do work shifts, so expect very random posting times, but that wasnt the reason this time.

Cheers. You did just make me google search when Father's day is here in case I missed it though!

And what erratic sleep pattern?

One of your first posts, and my question:

...

@champinoman, you guys had been on while I was asleep (I'm English) ...
...

...

And a side note: Considering the game started at aprox 1pm (England time) and your first post was at 8.30pm why did you use being asleep as justification for not reading the first phase of voting?

I'm waiting to hear your explanation because currently it seems like a pretty poorly constructed excuse.

Why do you demand explanations about people's erratic sleep patterns? That's a ridiculous thing to hang on to. He joined the game later and briefly mentioned why. You are overweighting innocent actions.

Firstly, I wasn't demanding an answer. I only repeated the question once as it appears it was glossed over.

Secondly, if you caught someone out who you were pretty sure wasn't telling the truth would you call them on it? I would, and I did.

And here is my logic: When he stated that he had been asleep he explicitly mentioned he was English so that we could associate where he was and why he was asleep. However, my girlfriend is currently backpacking in England so I didn't even have to think to realise that the time he was referring to was in the middle of the day. And that fact he mentioned that he was English and didn't mention anything about working nightshift (or etc.) is the reason I knew he had normal sleeping habits that day.

As it turns out my suspicions that what he had written was inaccurate were true. However I'm not sure what I hoped to achieve in resolving that.

I am enjoying champinos über paranoia at anything said. You are one of the more experienced players aren't you?

Not really experienced but have read a few games. I participated in a game about a year ago, but the site died mid game and I struggled to get back into it after a month long break.

And yes I'm paranoid, and will continue to be!

Btw, something of note.

Champino has so far chose to dissect my posts to death, down to my comments on time and story time about my motives... Can't seem to find a single comment on gen wolf beyond him getting quite reactive when I pointed out his positive comment towards him.

In fact I find it hard to find a strong focus from him on anyone outside of me and feel it who both have put pressure on gen wolf. Only when directly referenced by miss stranger is she brought into the mix.

Potential links already.

I will agree that I have questioned you more than any other in the game so far. However I would not say that this is because I think you are scummy. Quite the opposite in fact.

In regards to me not mentioning much about Gen_Wolf; So far I have only seen one thing that has concerned me from his play and believe it or not it isn't his apparent scumtell trying to get Miss Stranger lynched. It is that he called his sarcasm a deliberate reaction test and I'm not sure whether or not I believe that. However, everyone else jumped all over this so I didn't jump on that bandwagon and decided to concentrate on things that nobody else had mentioned. This doesn't mean I didn't follow what happened though. He just hasn't done anything else since then really and I'm finding it hard to believe that he is the one everyone is going after based on this one comment. It deserves to be looked at but I feel we are flogging a dead horse.

Editing... oh, you too? -_- Aaaanyway. I'm actually not pushing for a wagon on Gen_Wolf, but acknowledging that one has formed (FI, Nacho and Generic). The reason I'm holding my vote back is because I

don't

want to vote Gen_Wolf just yet. He's now away which gives a good opportunity for Fegelein, Antagon and you to finally arrive on stage, and I also want to hear Champ's response.

Following on from my previous point; excluding what happened in the first 2 pages what reasons do you have for voting Gen_Wolf? I can't see any excluding those 2 pages which makes me wonder why you need to hear what others think about the issue before placing your vote. To me it looks like you are scared to look accountable if he flips town.

I can chalk up a James May and Nacho scum team here, James for saying "I'm changing my playstyle because I screwed up last time" screams scum, and Nacho's play correlates with his scum meta.

Why bother with day 1 and 2. Lets just lynch James May and Nacho now and tomorrow and win? We are already onto both scum.

I think many of you are missing that it was an early town-read on Antagon, subject to change. TBH, Antagon doesn't come across as scum, despite his active lurking.

So posting minimal amounts that don't contribute anything to scum hunting is enough to declare that he doesn't come across as scum? I'm glad you dropped in to share this gem.

I can chalk up a James May and Nacho scum team here,

James for saying "I'm changing my playstyle because I screwed up last time" screams scum

, and Nacho's play correlates with his scum meta.

Uhhh...ok? Is it a crime to change playstyle because of bad town play previous game? I don't think so. And if that's really the only basis that you have then I'm sorry your read on me is invalid. Please try again Fegelein.

Hook. Line. and Sinker. And really fast too considering you have been nowhere to be found lately.

[champinoman]

Champinoman

- For the most part he (used to) look fine. I don't like his obsession with slips. I await an explanation why they are so important to him. I also don't like his "you're scummy for attacking him/me" attitude. In general I get the impression he finds everybody scummy, which isn't quite useful, so I request a T/S list.

I do find everybody scummy and I think it would be unwise to think otherwise.

Here is what I am currently thinking even though this day is still very young:

Antagon

and

Nachomamma8

are supposed to be our SE and IC however between them they have posted the least in terms of scum hunting. Both seem content in sitting back and not actively contributing. Considering this game is 3 days old I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt at the moment that they have been busy. However if this continues then it moves from unlucky timing to deliberate avoidance.

Fegelein

is more active than the 2 above but only just. I want to hear more from him because I like what I have seen so far. however, he has posted so little it's impossible to justify a read either way.

Gen_Wolf

hasn't really posted too much other than defending himself over 'the incident' on page 1. As I mentioned in my previous post, I wasn't overly impressed by his claim it was a deliberate reaction test, however this isn't enough for me to be convinced that he is scum.

Generic

is the one person I consider to be leaning town at the moment. I have been happy with the way he has answered anything put at him and also in the way that he has queried others.

Feel It

came out of the blocks hard and fast and was riding the Gen_Wolf bandwagon hard. However, since momentum on that seems to have slowed a little he has vanished. I'm finding it hard to get a read on him with so little to go on.

James May

is another that is hard to get a read on due to complete lack of activity. His recent post was the first time that he has shared an opinion on someone and I liked what I read. However, it is very minimal. If you are used to playing faster paced games then surely this slow style of play is not your norm? And your fast reactions to different people mentioning your name in the last few hours seems to heavily suggest lurking. Dive in and scum hunt!

Miss Stranger

... hmmmm... what to think? I have changed my mind so many times in these last 3 days trying to decide if you are scummy, overeager or even just new to this. Currently I would have to say that I think you are leaning scum. The big thing annoying me right now is that you have lined up a bunch of 'if this happens then' scenarios. These will be very interesting to look back at in day 2. I can't help but feel that you are trying to create scenarios that set people up (myself included) so that you are not an obvious lynch candidate.

[champinoman]

Hook. Line. and Sinker. And really fast too considering you have been nowhere to be found lately.

Nope. If you're basing on that then I'm sorry you don't have a case against me other than what Feg mentioned. But seriously, try to have some logic in it

James May, I never said I thought you were scum. I merely said you feel for his bait which was almost completely unsubstantiated. But your lurking ways popped out again when I mentioned your name

Except I never voted Gen_Wolf if we exclude the joke RVS vote, so your question is first of all worded incorrectly.

No, it isn't. I was referring to the vote you intended to place if more people supported your cause. I clearly stated in the following sentence that your vote hadn't been placed yet.

What I believe is scummy about him was first his odd behaviour during RVS, then his nervousness and poor explanations, and in general the clingy survival attitude he exhibits, which can have three possible explanations:
1) he believes he's too valuable an asset to the town
2) he's scum
3) he's genuinely interested in the game and doesn't want to get out so early
I'm only considering the third one because I try to keep a broad horizon. Clearly Gen_Wolf is very uncomfortable, but I believe he tries to genuinely scumhunt despite his nervousness, as shown in his latest posts (sorry, bit short on time so I can't look up the number right now). He isn't attacking his attackers, he isn't trying to derail the wagon onto someone else, he's probing the soil and looking for suspects as best as he can. I have mixed feelings about him, I definitely don't trust him, but overall now I think it's worth to hear what he has to say if we lessen the pressure.
And to answer your suspicions, no, I'm not afraid to look accountable for lynching an innocent. I'm afraid of mislynching out of stupidity and narrow horizon before all other options and opinions are considered.

4) he's town and wants town to win. <--- 7 of us are playing this way but clearly not you.

I'm also not too impressed with another round of PR fishing.

And I don't see any negatives in your description of how he is reacting to all of this pressure. In fact, the way you have written it actually makes me consider that he might be a bigger town read than I gave him credit for earlier.

[champinoman]

Champinoman- Hasn't been very involved in the game. A lot of people have town reads on him but I'm not convinced. He does ask some good questions and make good observations though. I don't like his subtle buddying with Gen_Wolf. The only thing you found suspicious was him saying it was a reaction test? I'm not convinced he's scum but he dropped more scumtells than that. He's also trying to discredit Miss Stranger's view on Gen_Wolf as well.

...

Gen_Wolf- He made the comment we all heard of but his reaction to the pressure he got from it was even worse. He got very aggressive and jumpy and started an OMGUS on me, a really weak and illogical one as well which he couldn't back up. Since then he's changed his opinion and been saying I'm town? He's been acting more helpful and town now though thankfully.

I haven't been very involved with the game? Did you have a glance at the post count and assume that because I have a low post count (due to putting everything into one post every night) that I haven't been involved?

The case I have apparently been trying to derail against Miss Stranger is the exact same case I am pressing to you. Other than Gen_Wolf's first page blunder, what has he done? All I can see if someone defending them self. I know people will say I'm defending him but nobody has actually answered this question. And considering people keep mentioning this 'scum slip' I am forced to continue asking this same question.

[champinoman]

To respond to matters directly put at me first;

@Champinoman:

You are trying to imply somehow that I know I'm an obvious lynch candidate but try not to be.

I suggested nothing of the sort. You don't need to be the obvious lynch candidate to be setting these scenarios up.

Excessive survivalist attitude during Day 1 is not attributed to "I'm town and I want to win".

Pure math suggests that if he is town and he gets lynched then we are in a worse position to win than if we had lynched one of the scum. So I dare say that a townie wanting to stay alive is to our benefit. And as Antagon posted more recently, he never said not to lynch him:

People jumped on Gen_Wolf for his "fatalistic attitude," but this portion is not alignment-indicative at all. It's not "Please don't lynch me," but "Please don't

quicklynch

me." It's highly detrimental for town to lynch someone when there is still time for discussion, but his comment is null because both town and scum can easily post something like this.[/spoiler]

UNVOTE: Miss Stranger

Once again I have had a change of heart on my read of Miss Stranger. I can't help but think that the things that have made her seem scummy can also be explained by considering the fact she is just excited to be playing a new game.

VOTE: Nachomamma8

Although you have pointed out some similarities in our playstyles (which upon reflection I won't disagree with) I don't feel that you are actively trying to scum hunt. Consider this my version of trying to kick you into gear.

[champinoman]

And while I'm at it:

I can chalk up a James May and Nacho scum team here, James for saying "I'm changing my playstyle because I screwed up last time" screams scum, and Nacho's play correlates with his scum meta.

I scoffed at this statement when you posted it, and I still don't think your reasoning is great. However, looking at both players play so far and especially at James' comments towards Nacho I wouldn't be surprised if you are onto something.

[champinoman]

Did we lose anything?

And I apologise for the site breaking. This is my 2nd game on this site and the first game was early last year when the site broke for 3 weeks. I think it's me...

[champinoman]

Screw it, I'm not happy with the hand waving away if the claim at L-2, but I am feeling like its time to trust the gut.

vote nachomamma

Can you outline your reasons for choosing Nachomamma over Antagon?

I currently think they are as useless as each other and am having trouble deciding which one deserves it more. I'm not even worried if they aren't scum because they are useless townies anyway. So much for having IC and SE players to teach us all how to play and guide us.

Oh btw could the mods give Gen_wolf and James May a prod?

James May hasn't logged in since the crash so maybe just hasn't realised we are back.

On the other hand, Nachomamma has posted numerous times on other threads and is just ignoring this one. Prod the hell outa him.

[champinoman]

Not happy with antagons antics there. Depending on the nachomamma response I'm tempted to switch over.

That was opportunistic.

What would you have preferred he do though? Whether he is town or not he is going to try and survive. At least he didn't lie about his reasoning.

I'm keeping my vote where it is though.

[champinoman]

I feel Antagon is town, I do not see the case on him being valid. Thus if I had to hammer it would not be him. I also see Nacho is at L-1 and I would hammer him over Anta, I do however think fegelin is scum, I don't like his play and considering we have 5 days left there is no need to rush.

Unvote

Vote: Fegelin

So Nacho is more scummier than Antagon? Let's refer back to your most recent post where you mentioned Nacho OR Antagon:

Reads:
Town

Generic
Miss Stranger

Null

Anta (leaning scum)
Champ
Feel it (Leaning town)
Nacho

Scum

Fegelin
James May

Seems to me the only difference between now and then is that Antagon is at L-1.

Implications everywhere. I'm not voting for him because I have a slight preference for the Antagon lynch, it's not an issue of getting my hands dirty.

If this is the case then why were you happy to switch your vote when Nacho was at L-1? The only difference between now and then is the potential to flush out a PR and that is certainly anti-town.

[champinoman]

I gave intent (which is a lot different than actually hammering him) because I'm also willing to lynch Nacho. Like I said I'd prefer Antagon but Nacho hasn't been very town either. As to flushing out a PR I'm not an expert as to how that would work out but it would clear them from a lynch, right? Which would make the other one a lot likelier to be scum (unless we've been completely wrong and they are both town.) If not I apologize on making a noob mistake.

On that exact same logic can you see why it would be the perfect play for scum? The only difference would be that instead of getting lynched they would get killed at night. Claiming should only be done if lynching is 100% certain.

[champinoman]

Quick update: I was 80% through writing a reply when my Internet died. Luckily I've managed to save the post but I won't be able to post it until I get to work tomorrow in roughly 9 hours from now. I'll try and get in early to cover anything that happens overnight too. Apologies but there's not much I can do other than curse my ISP.

[champinoman]

Quick update: I was 80% through writing a reply when my Internet died. Luckily I've managed to save the post but I won't be able to post it until I get to work tomorrow in roughly 9 hours from now. I'll try and get in early to cover anything that happens overnight too. Apologies but there's not much I can do other than curse my ISP.

ok, here is what I had prepared last night. Haven't had a chance to read through anything since this post though.

-----------------------

Lots of new stuff today I'll start working my way through it and hopefully have enough time to make it all the way.

Seems to me the only difference between now and then is that Antagon is at L-1.

Antagon's also posted quite a few times in between Gen_Wolf's two catchup posts. Don't you think that has anything to do with it?

If so, then why hasn't he posted anything about it? If you are going to change your vote then I expect to at least have a little bit of reasoning in there somewhere.

The following 2 posts I found really insightful as they shared a perspective that I hadn't really thought of when I asked "what else could Antagon do" in regards to his change in vote to put Nacho at L-1:

Would you prefer that I didn't even bother to try and self-voted? I'm not going to take a defeatist attitude just because I have a wagon on me. I will never fully accept my lynch and would vote Nacho even if I didn't think he was scum.

Again, false dichotomy. There are three days left, and you haven't done your promised ISOs on most of the game. James May is being replaced, so that probably explains why people weren't interested in lynching him. You could also talk about other suspects and try to reiterate why you feel James May is scum, you could try to compromise with a Fegelein vote... it's not a matter of you or me; you're only treating it that way so you have an excuse to hop on my wagon.

Spoiler:

Just adding stuff through reading.

Antagon

^
gets called out for lurking, and when actually posting, adds nothing besides explaining backseat hunting.
First actual input at post 174. Congratulations.
That vote on Nacho was really bad.

Okay, then. Let's take a look at my logic:
>Put at L-1 during the crash
>James May wagon not going anywhere
>Obviously not going to support a lynch on myself, who is confirmed town to myself
>Vote Nacho
Would you prefer that I didn't even bother to try and self-voted? I'm not going to take a defeatist attitude just because I have a wagon on me. I will never fully accept my lynch and would vote Nacho even if I didn't think he was scum.
Why should it matter that the vote was seen as

opportunistic

? Would it have made a difference if I had voted Nacho earlier?
Should I have continued to park my vote on James May instead?

You shouldn't be worried of getting lynched if you're pro-town.
Voting for someone you don't think is scum to save yourself is the worst possible course of action. It will make you look bad and result in the rest of town being confused at your behaviour.

Not only will your first target likely be a mislynch. You will likely be lynched on day 2 anyway.

[/quote]
The last bolded line is really important here. I would like to see what Antagon has to say about this because in hindsight it really isn't helpful to us.

If antagon is mafia, I'm pitching either fegelein or feel it for teammate, both if its a three man team (forgot what the split was).
Feel it refused to move his vote to nacho yet was happy to post intent to hammer on him. It simply doesn't add up.

To me he wants to sit on the antagon wagon in case that ends in a lynch so he can appear a part if it, but was ready to wait for nacho to respond and then hammer him claiming the posts weren't good enough.

Two-man.
What makes Fegelein my partner?

This post concerns me because he has more interest on the links that people are seeing between himself and others instead of actually trying to convince us that he is town.

I thoroughly enjoyed this post because it clearly articulated what I was thinking when I read the exchange between Feel It and Fegelein and was laced with the amount of sarcasm it deserved. And it lead into some interesting responses from Feel It:

This is interesting because it takes a completely different path from what most people's interpretations of Gen Wolf were at the time, which is something that I normally like a lot. However, I notice that champino completely avoided actually defending Gen (or commenting on the positions people were taking on him) and instead ended up subtly defending and chainsawing Gen a bit, which I don't like because it's a roundabout way of defending a townread and normally town prefers doing things like this out in the open.

Why would I defend Gen_Wolf? As it stands I am not going to say that he is a townie, and I was even less sure about it back on page 2. I pointed out that I thought other people were reading into something a little too much and that that action on its own was not enough to lynch someone on.

Everyone in his list with the exception of Generic is null or sort of scummy. Every. Single. Person. Now, I understand a certain degree of paranoia because it's natural, but only being able to nail down a single town read doesn't feel genuine at all.

It was day 3.

You said something like this while ignoring someone like Fegelein? Really?

The post I was referring to was a conversation about Generic changing his vote from Antagon to You. I agree that the statement would apply to others as well however they were not involved in this particular exchange so I didn't include them.


Now, my primary reason for having my vote on Nacho was because I didn't think that he was actually participating in this game in a way that was helping us. After his recent contributions I believe that this issue has been put to rest and will remove my vote for the time being.

UNVOTE: Nachomamma8

[champinoman]

Hmmm, not sure what happened with the font. I guess that was in the copy/paste process.

I just read about the chainsaw defending and will concede that I did indirectly defend Gen_Wolf without really intending to. On Gen_Wolf, where is he? This is not the time of day to vanish.

@Feel It:

If Nacho had not turned up and posted what he did, would you have hammered by now? (roughly 3 days later)

[champinoman]

EBWOP:

Feel It:

If Nacho had not turned up and posted what he did and was still at L-1, would you have hammered by now? (roughly 3 days later)

[champinoman]

Fair enough. What are your reads now?

Nachomamma:

My vote on you was pretty simple in the fact that you weren't posting anything and I expected more from our IC in this game. Adding to this was other comments that referred to previous games you had been more involved in during the early stages and this started to put doubt in my mind to whether or not you were busy or completely ignoring the game and letting us squabble amongst ourselves. Your posts over the last 48 hours have provided the analytical view that I had expected from you much earlier and have put the doubts I had about your play to rest for the time being. If you continue to post in a similar fashion as recently then I think I will start to lean town on you because everything you have said has appeared to be genuine. However, I am being cautious at the moment and waiting to see if this trend continues. This position does mean that I am not looking at putting my vote on you for the day 1 lynch though.

StubbsKVM:

It's great to see the improvement of play after watching James May lurk and vanish. It's hard to get a read in such a few posts because the first few really only comprised of recapping what others had said. His last few posts have been good and in the right direction in terms of scum hunting. I'm looking forward to trying to get a more accurate read on you over the early stages of day 2 (considering day 1 is very short for you).

I'm a little unsure about how much of James May's posts to read into when looking at my read on StubbsKVM. Maybe someone would like to share their opinion on that if they have any good tips?

Generic:

Not much really needs to be said here. I think that he has played a pretty consistent role so far and have been actively trying to scum hunt for the entire day. I maintain my from my first reads that he is the strongest town read here.

Miss Stranger:

I shared my view on Miss Stranger recently (although not in a reads list) and haven't changed my mind since then. I think that the reasons that she seemed scummy in the early stages were actually attributed to her over eagerness to be involved in everything happening and saying everything that popped into her head. Unfortunately for the rest of us, our suspicions about her actions seemed to have caused her to stop posting as much and I think this might be a disservice to us in the long run. I would put Miss Stranger up into 2nd in my town reads so far, just below Generic.

Gen_Wolf

and

Fegelein:

How are we expected to get decent reads on people when they don't post anything in the last week. There have been 3 meaningful posts between them. I'll have another look at them both tomorrow and look back at their play over the first week. No time to do it right now.

Feel It:

Your insistence that Gen_Wolf was trying to get a quick lynch on the first page irked me a little. But since then I hadn't had anything to really concern me about you until the recent events that Generic has been following up. Your (fake) intent to hammer has alarm bells going off everywhere. I said at the time that it appeared like you were trying to fish for a PR and I'm not unconvinced of that at the moment with your explanation (being that it would save him from a lynch [even though it would result in a NK of a PR]). A PR should only be revealed if it is confirmed that the person is 100% going to be lynched and you have admitted that this was never going to be the case. You weren't even willing to move your vote across to get him back to L-1 when Generic moved his vote. I really don't like your answer in 268 either. Generic is giving an example of a possibility and you accuse him of inaccurately forcing a META analysis on you. I currently believe that you are leaning scum.

Antagon:

The opportunistic jump across onto Nacho at the time looked to me like nothing more than the standard play. However, through discussions we have heard how this isn't actually a good town play as it may result in 2 mislynches instead of just the 1. You were around to read these posts and have even conceded that Nacho isn't really one of your top scum targets, yet your vote remains on Nacho. You're continuing to just lurk and only answer questions when they are asked directly of you and not getting yourself involved at a deeper level than self preservation. Leaning scum as well and probably #1 lynch candidate for me at this time, however I will hold my vote for 12 hours in the hope you get online and convince me otherwise. (can't hold any longer as I want to allow over 24 hours for a claim IF it comes to that)

-----------------

@Antagon:

Can you please provide your comments on every player please before the deadline. If you end up getting lynched then we want to have an up to date list of your thoughts to reflect on.

@Gen_Wolf:

I feel Antagon is town, I do not see the case on him being valid. Thus if I had to hammer it would not be him. I also see Nacho is at L-1 and I would hammer him over Anta, I do however think fegelin is scum, I don't like his play and considering we have 5 days left there is no need to rush.

Unvote

Vote: Fegelin

Can you please share your current thoughts on this. Why do you think Fegelein is scum? Do you still consider Nacho a better lynch than Antagon? Do you still feel Antagon is town?

[champinoman]

I have a question, in regards to Antagon:

The opportunistic jump across onto Nacho at the time looked to me like nothing more than the standard play.

Standard play for what?

Someone queried Antagon's vote on Nachomamma and I asked what they expected Antagon to do because in my head I thought that if I was looking likely to be lynched I probably would have done the same thing in order to prevent a town lynch. However, Stubbs explained that all this would do is cause 2 town lynches if Nachomamma flips town because I would likely be the lynch the following day due to this play. It was something that I hadn't considered and in hindsight realise how foolish that type of play is.

The thing that makes Antagon look scummy is the fact that even after all this has been said he leaves his vote parked on Nachomamma even after conceding that he wasn't the player he considered most scummy. And now his reluctance to give reads on different players is another problem. I don't care how bad his reads post might be but not posting anything is as scummy as it gets. If he is a townie he needs his opinions written down so that when he flips we can reread and know what a confirmed townie was thinking.

@Generic:

I certainly understand your point of view when it comes to lynching Feel It. However I simply believe that Antagon is the scummiest player at the moment as stated above and that's why my vote is heading his direction.

VOTE: Antagon

This puts him at

L-1

.

[champinoman]

Even with the claim the fact that you haven't included any sort of indication who you think scum is is just another nail in the coffin. You are either scum or a useless townie.

I just wasn't sure, forgot about the table thanks. I'm not moving my vote and I think overall the best choice would be to hammer him. Bulletproof is an easy scum claim and it smells like a last ditch effort to save himself. If we let him go now and he's lying (which is likely), we've let a scum go, but even if he's telling the truth all it will do is let the scum know not to target him because he's bulletproof and not a helpful townplayer, which will make it easier for them to pick the rest of us off.

I agree with this. And in addition I think we need to look at the value of his PR in the event he is telling the truth. I think it is very unlikely that he would get NK'd anyway considering it would be a foolish scum to kill someone who is providing zero to the conversation. So I still fully support the lynch.

[champinoman]

Nice result overnight! and crazy shenanigans this morning already. This is just me checking in and I'll be back after work tonight to post my thoughts. Can't really post substantially at work.

But while I'm here;

Chkflip

, can you please give your thoughts on all players after your read through.

Off topic: Chkflip, good to see you again. You were in the other game I played here.

[champinoman]

Unfortunately for the rest of us, our suspicions about her actions seemed to have caused her to stop posting as much and I think this might be a disservice to us in the long run.

I can't say I understand the point you're trying to make about her here. Do you think that we should fake suspect her so she posts more or that it's suspicious that she posts less when we're not suspecting her or...?

Miss Stranger explained this but I wanted to post on it myself as well. I was concerned that she had stopped posting because people kept complaining about her walls of text. Turns out she was just busy.

I am still waiting to hear the thoughts from chkflip because currently I believe he needs to provide us a reason not to vote for him. He needs to reply to Miss Stranger's post #311 and explain to us why Fegelein wasn't the next lynch.

[champinoman]

I want to vote chkflip just giving them the courtesy to post. Also want to see what he has to say before i do.

Pretty much exactly what I'm waiting for. I am pretty certain that our lynch is decided so am not really rushing. But if chkflip doesn't return soon we might have to speed up the process.

[champinoman]

What the $^#& just happened?

lold I've been a very successful IC, actually. I'm just not interested in fighting against the entire player list.

You realise that you were actually only being asked to respond to 1 post? Post #311. The player list slowly voted you because you refuse to respond to that post and continually promised content and never provided it.

If you are town then your play is pathetic and there is nothing you can say to deny that. You have stalled this game and prevented it from moving on. Your initial refusal to provide your opinions on others after your self hammer is another example of poor play. Your attack on Miss Stranger confirms that you were too lazy to read anything but the last page or 2 of day 1. You should reconsider accepting a replacement role in the future if this is how you are going to play it.

[champinoman]

Revive: chkflip
Vote: chkflip

Because town play THAT bad deserves 2 lynches.

[champinoman]

Revive: chkflip
Vote: chkflip

Because town play THAT bad deserves 2 lynches.

This is all you have to say?

I was in bed at the time so I just wanted to vent before sleeping.

The town flip didn't really come as a surprise in the end. Once he had hammered himself there was no reason for him to lie about being town. So we knew it was coming.

But onto day 3. I'll be the first to admit I was a little lazy through day 2. I was waiting for the answers to come from chkflip and didn't pursue anything else at the same time. I got sucked into believing the case on chkflip's slot was a solid one.

I sort of expected that, strange as it is. Welcome back.

Can you explain why you had expected this after night 1? Not following.

Gen_Wolf's play is starting to raise suspicion to me. Nacho has pointed out that he just slid his vote onto chkflip without much fuss and explanation. I know that he had his suspicions about fegelein in day 1 but there was an element of opportunity in there. You said you would give him the opportunity to explain himself before voting and then voted for him less than 6 hours later. And his level of involvement in the game is below what I would expect from a player trying to actively contribute to the scum hunt. Nearly all of his posts over the last 3 weeks (9 posts) have had some element of excuse for his absence in them. And when he has posted they have been minor posts to avoid getting prodded.

just to confirm chkflip replaced feg hey? We have a lynch or two to mess around with so I am happy with a Feg (now chck?) or feel it? The self vote does give town vibes but could just be a double bluff

This post shows a complete carelessness for the game. Ever heard of looking at post 1 or scrolling back a page or 2 to read whats been happening? Lurking to the max.

Scum are obvz no lynching at night so lets no lynch during the day until they make a NK so we can get some info?

This is the 2nd time you have suggested this. I can think of 5 different ways in which there would be no kill at night, and even more combinations across 2 nights. Why are you so eager for us to think that scum are no NK'ing? And considering you're a SE then you should know that there are other ways for this to happen.

Feel It: Upon reflection, how do you think your self vote looks now? You were adamant that chkflip was going to flip scum and even said so numerous times. And if you are town you were effectively lining us up for 2 mis-lynches in a row.

ok, running out of time. My current reads;

VOTE: Gen_Wolf

I just had a look at your iso and discovered that you have not once provided anything that could be considered scumhunting. You have never questioned anyone about anything. Your entire iso can be described as defending yourself or "been busy, post later".

Miss Stranger and Generic: You are the two that I think are town.

Feel It, Stubbs and Nacho: You guys are still in the middle for me. I don't like Feel It's self vote and the possibility for a bluff is still quite open. Nacho's meta has been constantly commented on and I am starting to take it more seriously. Your posting patterns and quantities on this thread don't match others and you are starting to make me wonder why. Stubbs, minimal content (however, it was a quiet day 2) and also not paying much attention to the thread (also asking if chkflip was fegelein's replacement). I'm not so critical though as these things don't trace back into day 1 like they do for Gen_Wolf, for obvious reasons.

[champinoman]

And after all of that I forgot to mention the fact that Gen_Wolf is actively seeking to forfeit towns only way of winning the game (lynching). We have been fortunate to avoid 2 NK's to put us in a better position than normal after a mis-lynch and you want us to effectively let scum catch up.

[champinoman]

Was an idea.

Two reasons there are no nk's

A PR has blocked it twice

Or

You oaks are so far off

who scum actually are they just not killing because your doing the work for them.

Or 1 NK and a PR block.
Or 2 seperate PR's getting lucky.

So even after prompting you're still getting this wrong.

And can you please explain the underlined section. I know it's a typo but it sounds like you are talking to town from the view of an outsider. And don't forget you had a vote on chkflip too so don't sit here blaming others.

[champinoman]

Was an idea.

Two reasons there are no nk's

A PR has blocked it twice

Or

You oaks are so far off

who scum actually are they just not killing because your doing the work for them.

Or 1 NK and a PR block.
Or 2 seperate PR's getting lucky.

So even after prompting you're still getting this wrong.

And can you please explain the underlined section. I know it's a typo but it sounds like you are talking to town from the view of an outsider. And don't forget you had a vote on chkflip too so don't sit here blaming others.

I was giving scenario's for my idea, thus I was speaking from a third person perspective. Alright well my idea isnt going to happen so lets just keep lynchimg then.

Any thoughts on who that should be?

[champinoman]

Wow, things escalated quickly. I'm just glad nobody did anything stupid and shortened the day. Plenty of time yet.

I feel scum is somewhere in nacho champs or stubbs

Finally, an opinion.
Now can you please explain why the 3 of us are scummy in your opinion? And whilst you're at it maybe explain why the other 3 aren't.


Feel It: What are your thoughts on Gen_Wolf now following his claim? And if you think it is valid who do you think is next most likely to be scum?


Nacho: Other than saying you are interested in me you haven't shared your opinion on who you think is most likely to be scum since day 1. Care to share your thoughts?


Miss Stranger:

Here is who I think is probably not mafia:
- Feel It was the second person to vote Antagon and he remained solid on his wagon.
- Nachomamma was hopped onto by Antagon in hopes of mislynch.
- Stubbs is generally feeling town, also third person to vote Antagon and gain momentum on his wagon.
- Generic's hammer was very town.

This leaves Gen_Wolf and champinoman, and I don't think champinoman was bussing Antagon, so I'd personally pick Gen_Wolf.
VOTE: Gen_Wolf.

-Being the 2nd onto Antagon and remaining on the wagon could just show that he knew Antagon was a dead man walking.
-I don't think that you can assume that Nacho is town because Antagon jumped on his wagon. Have you got any other reasons why you think that Nacho is town?
-Why is Stubbs feeling town?

And I understand the case presented for Gen_Wolf but I would like to hear your thoughts on myself as I seem to be being considered.

My reread nacho had to be delayed. But firstly

unvote

for now.

In my mind from what I have seen over three days nacho and stranger are town. Chalk them off and we are left with

Stubbs, feel it, champino and gen wolf...

One to find, if mafia finally get successful we have three lynches left to find one scum (7 to5, 5 to 3, then the final decision if it gets that far)

We may be facing a mass claim requirement on day 4 if we aren't right today. In fact I would want one today, because I think it would narrow things down further for reasons I will hold back right now.

There is a margin for error in this win now, and if for example we have the setup with a doc or the one with a jail keeper we have answers to be had.

Cop would have at the very least cleared a couple of people as town by now. Jail keeper would have by Occam's razor protected someone who must be town OR roleblocked the last mafia.

Who thinks a mass claim will be good for today?

Can you please elaborate on why you feel that Nacho is town?

I don't think a mass claim is a good idea yet. I just feel like there is still the potential for too many variables. However, If a PR disagrees then go for it. Just have a long think about it first.

[champinoman]

My problem is that I haven’t played enough games to know what the best approach is in this situation. Maybe some guidance from Nacho (IC) is required on this when he gets back.

Looking at the 3 scenarios you have listed above I see the following possible problems:

The key thing is a cop would have two reads by now.

What if they targeted chkflip/fegelein on N1?
What if they were roleblocked on one of the nights?
Or worst case; what if they targeted chkflip/fegelein on N1 and were roleblocked on N2?

A jail keeper if they targeted the same person twice would have the scum

If a jaileeper targeted the same person:
What about if there was a no-kill on one of the nights and the other night the jailkeeper picked the target of the nightkill?
If there is a jailkeeper then there is a 50% chance of a bulletproof as well, so we have other possibilities similar to the above scenario.

or if they protected two people if we knew them we might have an idea who was town targetedby mafia and who was scum.

If a jaileeper targeted different people then I’m not sure if there is anyway to draw any conclusions with the multiple scenarios including: jailer jailing the target, jailer jailing the scum, bulletproof and scum no-killing.

This is why in my previous post I said there are so many variables that I’m not sure whether or not it’s a good idea to mass claim.

That being said though, there are scenarios where claiming is a good idea so those people should certainly consider it.

[champinoman]

If right now the scum is someone like Nacho or god forbid Generic, he must be laughing himself apart at this moment. ;_;

I agree with the Generic comment, but am not sure why everyone has Nacho listed as town. I have asked people to elaborate on this numerous times but nobody has answered it. He is getting a free ride at the moment and I want to know why.

[champinoman]

Then again, he sings up for like half the ongoing games, so no wonder. Also he's V/LA until 18th and prompted us not to do anything stupid. I'd say we can re-evaluate former reads, but there really isn't much new information because of the damn lack of nightkills.

His actions have been the same in both days so far. He lurks and provides very minimal content at first. And then he does 1 big analysis towards the end of the day to show us how keen he is to scum hunt. This is why I was asking for his opinion early in this day. If he is town then I think it is worthwhile getting his opinion out in the open so that we can be more informed. He is the most experienced after all so his lack of involvement is just hurting us.

And to add my voice to your 'meaningless speculation';

Spoiler: Meaningless speculation

Albeit, I don't think Jailkeeper has roleblocked the same person twice, otherwise they'd be adamant in lynching that person right now, no?

Refer to my post 446 regarding thoughts on this matter. I think that if it was me and there was no kill on the first night I would almost certainly pick the same person again. I'm not sure I'd be adamant on getting the person lynched in day 3 though (in result of another no kill at night) because there are still other possibilities such as the scum no-killing, the involvement of a bulletproof or even the mafia just targeting the same person twice. I'd certainly have them on my radar though, re-analysing their play over the last 2 days and trying to get them talking to provide additional information to work on before revealing yourself to everyone.

And after all that is said, there might not even be a jailkeeper in the game. A doc could provide us with the same scenario right now.

[champinoman]

Gen has requested replacement.

Can we get confirmation on who this is; Gen_Wolf or Generic?

Gen_Wolf, edited in original post, sorry.

-Vel

[champinoman]

I think I agree with the lynch. However I want a chance to review everything first.

And aside from that; I want to hear from Nacho before this day ends.

[champinoman]

Sorry everyone, busy weekend got the better of me. Managed to log in a few times but never got the chance to stay long enough to post.

Welcome Mr. Flay

If we do so, it worked well last game I played to resist popcorn and go with a Scummiest-to-Towniest massclaim. Condorcet (preferential) voting works well for this and forces everyone to take a stand on everyone else left alive, something we could also use at this point.

I'm going to be completely honest and say I have no idea what you just said Any chance of another explanation?

[champinoman]

Well this game needs a kick up the ass so maybe a mass claim is a good idea. But if we are going to do it then we need to get a move on.

In order from scummiest to most town:

Mr. Flay (albeit as a result of Gen_Wolf)
Feel It
Nacho
Stubbs
Miss Stranger
Generic

[champinoman]

Deadline is 4 days from now so we have time. That post you are looking at has a dynamic countdown in it that refreshes whenever you reload the page.

I think we should generate the order in the manner that Flay suggested. It's fairer that way. All 3 people who haven't given their order yet are due on within the next 12 hours anyway.

As long as nobody deliberately stalls then we should be fine.

I suggest everyone who needs to should prepare their claim so that time is no excuse. No need to stall this out any longer than needed.

[champinoman]

I've been busy. Does everyone want me to claim?

No, don't claim.

Order everyone in order from scummiest to town. Then after we have compiled a list people will claim in order starting at the person people consider the most scum.

[champinoman]

And it appears this game is the lowest on Nacho's list of priorities. He has been VERY over the last 7 hours but hasn't found the time to post in here.

UNVOTE: Mr. Flay

VOTE: Nachomamma

I've had enough.

[champinoman]

EBWOP: "He has been VERY

active

over the last..."

[champinoman]

Posts by Nachomamma in other threads over the last 9 hours: 56
Posts by Nachomamma in this thread during the same time: 0

And for interest:
Posts by Nachomamma in this thread since the game began: 46

[champinoman]

I *think* I have done this correctly. Basically looking at all the lists and doing 1v1 comparisons and seeing who the majority feel are more likely to be scum.



Now in the event of the 3 way tie I went through and discovered:
3 out of 5 people believed Nacho was more likely scum than Champinoman.
3 out of 5 people believed Champinoman was more likely scum than Stubbs.
3 out of 5 people believed Stubbs was more likely scum than Nacho.

Still a tie.

So I then did the same thing and excluded any votes by Champinoman, Stubbs and Nacho.
3 out of 4 believed Nacho was more likely scum than Champinoman.
3 out of 4 believed Stubbs was more likely scum than Nacho.
Stubbs V Nacho was a tie.

So the best way I see to satisfy all of these findings would be the order of: Stubbs > Nacho > Champinoman.

Resulting in the Claim order of:

Mr. Flay
Feel It
Stubbs
Nacho
Champinoman
Generic
Miss Stranger.

I have tried to explain my logic in this post so that there is no bias. Does everyone agree with what I've written?

(and apologies for writing in third person )

[champinoman]

So I propose a claim order of:

Feel it
Mr flay
Stubbs
Nacho
Champino
Generic
Miss stranger

Just noticed you almost got it perfect.

[champinoman]

C'mon Mr. Flay, you ruined my scheming. I deliberately went through all that effort to get Nacho claiming before me. But considering you forced the point...

----------------

I am the

Jailkeeper

and I have jailed Nachomamma both nights.

I tried to reveal who I had jailed during today's play in case I died tonight:

Then again, he sings up for like half the ongoing games, so no wonder. Also he's V/LA until 18th and prompted us not to do anything stupid. I'd say we can re-evaluate former reads, but there really isn't much new information because of the damn lack of nightkills.

His actions have been the same in both days so far. He lurks and provides very minimal content at first. And then he does 1 big analysis towards the end of the day to show us how keen he is to scum hunt. This is why I was asking for his opinion early in this day. If he is town then I think it is worthwhile getting his opinion out in the open so that we can be more informed. He is the most experienced after all so his lack of involvement is just hurting us.

And to add my voice to your 'meaningless speculation';

Spoiler: Meaningless speculation

Albeit, I don't think Jailkeeper has roleblocked the same person twice, otherwise they'd be adamant in lynching that person right now, no?

Refer to my post 446 regarding thoughts on this matter.

I think that if it was me and there was no kill on the first night I would almost certainly pick the same person again

. I'm not sure I'd be adamant on getting the person lynched in day 3 though (in result of another no kill at night) because there are still other possibilities such as the scum no-killing, the involvement of a bulletproof or even the mafia just targeting the same person twice.

I'd certainly have them on my radar though, re-analysing their play over the last 2 days and trying to get them talking to provide additional information to work on before revealing yourself to everyone

.

And after all that is said, there might not even be a jailkeeper in the game. A doc could provide us with the same scenario right now.

As you can see I clearly stated that I had jailed the same person twice. I then hinted at who I had jailed by including these comments in a post that only talked about 1 other person, Nacho.

So, what does this mean?

For one,

I am confirmed town

. The only way this can be disputed is if somebody counter claims me today, and in that case I'm happy to be the lynch knowing I'll flip town giving us a guaranteed victory lynch in day 4.

I'm just disappointed I was forced to claim before Nacho.

[champinoman]

It is a shame you claimed before me.
One-shot bulletproof here.

Yeah. No surprise.

[champinoman]

I'm annoyed as hell with myself right now. I should have insisted Nacho claimed first considering the voting patterns between us.

Well, I guess we don't have to worry about anyone else claiming now. Unless we have a cc?

I'm leaving my vote where it is though.

[champinoman]

On one hand he could be the bulletproof and was just warning the tracker not to reveal himself, knowing a doc wouldn't claim.

OR

If he is scum: He made a statement that could work with either a jailkeeper or a doctor revealing themselves (He knew there was one). If a doc had claimed he had bought himself time to claim later after claiming VT today. If a jailkeeper claimed then he could reveal himself as a bulletproof and have a statement posted earlier to back himself up.

[champinoman]

Woah! Hold up!

Nacho is certainly not clear. And here is why:

If nacho is a normal scum then he knows there is no bulletproof in the game and has free range to claim it.

[champinoman]

UNVOTE: Nachomamma

Slow down people. We have 3 days.

[champinoman]

Now that I've reread I think the best course of action is a no lynch today.

Worst case scenario is that we end up in exactly the same scenario tomorrow as we are in right now.

VOTE: No Lynch

[champinoman]

Yeah... Nacho’s plan... /facepalm

Anyways,

The best course of action is a No Lynch. But I do have 2 simple requests of scum.

1) If you are scum Nacho, any chance of sparring us this dragged out process?

2) If Nacho is town then we have a role blocker which essentially means that we have 1 scum and 6 VT left. So, if we no lynch, can you please kill somebody tonight. You will be in exactly the same situation as if we waited anyway except without the delay in play.


And yes, I am jailing Nacho again tonight.

[champinoman]

VRK's ruleset says that the Jailkeeper takes precedence over the Roleblocker, so he can't kill ANYBODY as long as champinoman stays on target.

That's not correct. Roleblocker takes precendence. However, if Nacho is scum then there is no roleblocker anyway so it's irrelevant.

[champinoman]

I don't like the no lynch idea either, nothing will happen either way. if nacho is guilty nobody will be killed, and if he's innocent scum will almost certainly no kill

This. Nacho's plan allows some progress - No Lynch ends in (at best) stalemate.

Just reread Nacho's post. I had misread it. Let me have a think about it as I'm not sure how I feel about it right now.

That's not correct. Roleblocker takes precendence. However, if Nacho is scum then there is no roleblocker anyway so it's irrelevant.

. Not true, we could be in Column A. But under VRK's ruleset it doesn't matter.

We can't be in column A if Nacho is scum because nobody counter claimed bulletproof. I'm not sure where to find VRK's ruleset but it clearly states in Matrix6 (listed in post #3) that:

Balance Discussion

The Mafia Roleblocker is allowed to both submit the nightkill and perform his Roleblocker action. In addition,

the Roleblocker is stated to resolve before the Jailkeeper.

(This only matters in the case where the Roleblocker and Jailkeeper target one another.)

The Bulletproof Townie's bulletproof cannot be roleblocked, as it is a reflexive action.

Can you please provide a link to VRK's ruleset because I want to understand why a player with your experience has this backwards.

[champinoman]

ok, gotcha now. I just wanted to be sure you weren't 'working an angle' with that. And I'm having a rather slow morning in the brain department as outlined in the previous posts. I think we need clarification in case Nacho turns out to be telling the truth.

Vel-Rahn Koon

: Can you please clarify the conflict of information in regards to Jailkeeper Vs Roleblocker. Cheers.

VOTE: Nachomamma8

Sorry Nacho, but I think I'd prefer to find out today if you're scum over any other player, champinoman jailing you twice with no nightkills speaks pretty loud.

I don't like the no lynch idea either, nothing will happen either way. if nacho is guilty nobody will be killed, and if he's innocent scum will almost certainly no kill, just feels like a waste of time.

You are overly defensive at the moment. If Nacho is scum then we will win regardless, it'll just take a little bit longer. If he is town then we have avoided a mis-lynch. Even if we replace that with another mis-lynch we are still in a better position. Would you not agree?

[champinoman]

Flay, are you familiar with the Amished Tell?

No idea. Wiki is unhelpful, seems he always lost as scum (certainly not my problem).

That's exactly the answer Nacho was looking for.

From Newbie 1198 (care of google):

It's based off of people replacing into a game and getting a scum PM. What's the first thing you do? Reread your predecessor to see how screwed you are. Town, however, has no reason to reread their predeccesor(generally) as they know they were town so who cares.

The amish tell is whenever someone insults their predecessor, they are scum. This only works when:
A. They've never heard of the amish.
B. It's not part of their playstyle.

Something to think about tomorrow.

I'm happy with the plan so I'm following Nacho's lead.

UNVOTE: No Lynch

VOTE: Feel It

And in all honesty your eagerness to rush the lynch on Nacho is a worry. There is no reason it has to happen today.

[champinoman]

That's a really odd tell. Who doesn't read their predecessor? And when somebody is playing THAT BADLY, it is worth commenting on.

I'd never heard of it myself. I guess we will find out in time. It's worth noting though that both chkflip (flipped town) and Stubbs (tbc) didn't criticize their slot when they started.

So who wants to take guesses if I survive the night? I think I'm a goner, however considering I can be roleblocked every night I don't see the necessity for me to be killed. I'm effectively a VT anyway now.

[champinoman]

A quick question to everyone (which bugged me overnight) which I want to pose before night in case I am no longer here. Did anyone else notice the inconsistency in the ruleset with the Jail keeper Vs Roleblocker? I know I didn't notice it and I was one of the roles who probably should have. Should I be reading into the fact that Mr. Flay (who I consider the most scummy person left) is the person who read the mafia PM to notice this? As an experienced player he knows the standard order of play so it seems odd.

[champinoman]

I also helped edit the wiki page for and (vaguely) helped design the Matrix 6 setup, as well as the one before it that had a JK-RB combo in it. So I'm pretty familiar with how I thought it would work, and was surprised to see VRK's ruleset read the other way.

This concerns me more now. If you are familiar with how the role should work (as according to the wiki), then there is no reason to go reading the mafia role PM. You already knew the answer to your question.

Mainly though I noticed because if it worked the way the wiki says, then NachoScum would NOT be stopped from killing at all, and we'd all be barking up the wrong tree. That's why I went reading the sample role PMs, which are in the first posts of every Newbie Game.

But NachoScum can't be a roleblocker. And I'm starting to think you missed this because you didn't have to think about the different combinations possible. Perhaps you already knew the type of scum we had in game?

[champinoman]

I wouldn't put Feel It and chkflip in the same basket. chkflip's play was terrible. Feel It is well aware that he has 5 different people intending to lynch him today so just helped the process along with 24 hours left until lynch.

And Feel It will flip town. There is no reason to lie after hammering himself.

And in case I'm not here; don't rush into the Flay lynch. You have 2 weeks to make sure it's the correct decision. It would be good to hear Nacho's view on all of this as well (remembering he is confirmed town *until day 5).

[champinoman]

@Mod: I request to be replaced.

I'm sorry, guys, there's some personal problems going on and I really can't concentrate on Mafia any more, I'm probably going off-site for a couple weeks or more, because this is just serious and preoccupying my mind.

Good luck and sorry once again!

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully all goes well for you. In case we don't cross paths again, good luck with the remainder of the pregnancy

[champinoman]

That's the second selfhammer in a row. What the hell.

So where were you in the last 48 hours of day 3? Didn't feel like sharing your opinion on anything that happened?

No thoughts on what happened in N3?

And do you have no thoughts on how we should proceed from here?

[champinoman]

Quick poll: Who is keen to lynch Nacho today so we can get on with things?

[champinoman]

Well now that everyone has posted (with the exception of MS) I will share my opinion on the matter.

I think that it is a

TERRIBLE

idea to lynch Nacho today. Why would be be lynching someone who might be confirmed town during N4?

But before that; here's what we know for sure:

- If nacho is scum, this is a town victory. Period.
- If nacho is town then we need to keep him alive for as long as possible. So lynching him last is the best way to do it even if it drags this game out a little. Remember, we don't need to use the full 2 weeks if we don't want to.

So from this point onwards everyone should be posting as if Nacho is confTown. There is no need to confuse the issue by constantly bringing up the chance that Nacho is scum.

My take on last night: It reveals nothing. A stupid scum will have no-killed, a smart scum will have roleblocked me and targeted Nacho in order to eliminate his bulletproof ability. They lose nothing by doing this and probably hope we do something stupid and lynch Nacho.

[champinoman]

Agree with flay, but leaning more towards doing it to free up champ.

Can you please explain what you mean by "free up champ"?

[champinoman]

So I make a comment asking nobody to bother discussing Nacho as scum and both people who post comment on Nacho being scum.

STOP MUDDYING THE WATERS!!!!

If you are jailing nacho and he ISN'T mafia then you get the chance to block the actual mafia.

I thought it was fairly obvious given currently you are holding on nacho while we aren't sure of his township.

It's not obvious because if nacho is town then my ability is pointless because I'll be roleblocked. I'm effectively a VT in that case. So I'm happy to leave it on Nacho.

So are we killing nacho now or giving him a second lynch choice?

Right now I'm concerned we could dnf up losing still after the best possible start.

Look at the pure math. We lose nothing by leaving the lynch until tomorrow. In fact, we gain the opinion of a 2nd confTown.

btw, how long are you away on holidays?

[champinoman]

It's not obvious because if nacho is town then my ability is pointless because I'll be roleblocked.

This STILL isn't true. Jailkeep STILL overrides Roleblocker in this setup, under VRK's ruleset. Try to keep up.

ok, I've reread everything multiple times this morning and this is what I have found:

According to VRK's ruleset we had the following:
A link to matrix6 that clearly states the roleblocker wins any conflict with jailkeeper.

The mafia role PM stated the jailkeeper wins any conflict with roleblocker.

<-- VRK removed this after our discussion.

So, according to the ruleset, roleblocker wins.

However,

When I updated my rules set for the Matrix6 setup, I forgot to take NAR into account (which is where the rule in the wiki for Matrix6 comes from). Now that I'm thinking about it that rule is pointless, because a Roleblocker shouldn't/wouldn't get a result back stating whether his block action was successful.

I'm taking the line out from the Roleblocker sample PM. Thanks for catching it!

...uhhh, okay. Since you're confirming the ruleset, does the RB still lose ties to the JK?

Yes. According to NAR, all blocking actions take precedence over protection actions. Sorry for the confusion

-Vel

You asked if the RoleBlocker loses to the Jailkeeper and VRK said Yes.
But in the same breath said that blocking actions take precedence over protection actions. Doesn't this mean the Roleblocker (blocking) beats Jailkeeper (Protection)??

So you can understand my confusion here.

Vel-Rahn Koon??

[champinoman]

Thanks VRK. That was nice and confusing for a while

Metagame, I feel like Nacho would have conceded last night if he was Mafia. But that is by no means a sure thing.

I'm not so sure. If it were me I'd be targeting the JailKeeper every night that I'm still alive in the hope he tries to be too smart for his own good and jails someone else. Then once the Jailkeeper is dead you have tricked everyone else in to believing you are confTown because he was supposedly jailing you.

TAs for my not being around, I was around. I just didn't think it was up to me to hammer feel it.

Did you not agree with our lynch choice?

So that being said, half my analysis goes out the fucking window. Nacho is either what he says he is (BP), or he's a Goon (not RB), and champino has saved us all (and we win whenever we lynch Nacho). If he's what he says he is, champino is useless. Problem is we won't know until Nacho flips...

So we should treat the game as 2 confTown with no PR Vs 1 scum.

[champinoman]

Lets try that again:

-----------------------

Thanks VRK. That was nice and confusing for a while

Metagame, I feel like Nacho would have conceded last night if he was Mafia. But that is by no means a sure thing. I'd still prefer to lynch somebody else, decided on by champino and Nacho, today.

I'm not so sure. If it were me I'd be targeting the JailKeeper every night that I'm still alive in the hope he tries to be too smart for his own good and jails someone else. Then once the Jailkeeper is dead you have tricked everyone else in to believing you are confTown because he was supposedly jailing you.

TAs for my not being around, I was around. I just didn't think it was up to me to hammer feel it.

Did you not agree with our lynch choice?

So that being said, half my analysis goes out the fucking window. Nacho is either what he says he is (BP), or he's a Goon (not RB), and champino has saved us all (and we win whenever we lynch Nacho). If he's what he says he is, champino is useless. Problem is we won't know until Nacho flips...

So we should treat the game as 2 confTown with no PR Vs 1 scum.

[champinoman]

Oh and champ, why would the role blocker block you to kill nacho? If you are.blocked and there is a mafia roleblocker then nacho is bulletproof. So basically nacho is going to survive the night whether you jail him or not.

Besides WIFOM, is there anything to gain by not killing last night?

Well the 1 reason I can think of for mafia not to kill last night would be to eliminate the bulletproof PR from the game. If I was blocked and Nacho was targeted then he is now a VT because he is only a 1 shot bulletproof. It allows for more flexibility later in the game.

[champinoman]

Firstly, Mr. Flay, not one of your links to posts in post 664 work. 2 out of the 3 actually lead to different threads

My thoughts at the moment, from scummiest to town, are: Nacho, Stubbs, Flay, Generic, Karnage (MS).

Stubbs, do you believe Generic should be the next lynch? (#632) Why do you think Generic is a better candidate than Flay?

[champinoman]

By letting Nacho stay alive and picking off different people everyday we leave ourself in a position where scum are forced to either no kill at night or confirm that Nacho is town by killing. This leaves us in a position where we are guaranteed to have a confirmed townie tomorrow if we play our cards right. The only way that we can get to day 5 without a confTown is by lynching Nacho today. So I wanted to see who was keen on the Nacho lynch.

Not keen, but not against. NOT liking his ignoring the thread thus far.

A pretty neutral response really but I'm happy with it.

Agree with flay, but leaning more towards doing it to free up champ.

Generic's reasonings for lynching Nacho seem to be based off the confusion with JK vs RB.

To be honest, I think Flay is looking better after this night.
If he was scum, not making a kill would not make sense.
I think we should kill Nacho today.

As for my not being around, I was around. I just didn't think it was up to me to hammer feel it.

If Nacho somehow flips town, I think I'll need to take another look at Generic/Miss S
You're the only conftown champino, what do you think?

On the other hand, there's 6 of us left. So if we're wrong on Nacho, we'll have 4 people left. Which is not ideal.

- I have no idea why Flay was singled out here to be looking better. Hell, I don't even understand how that makes him look better.
- Pushes hard for the Nacho lynch today.
- Admits to lurking.
- Joins the suspicion on Generic that Nacho has started to form.

[champinoman]

Sorry guys, went away for the weekend. But it appears Nacho is getting scummier by the minute anyway. I don't know why he is prolonging this if he is scum though. He's a dead man walking. Stubbs was my preferred lynch today so I'm happy with how its looking so far. Still want to hear from Nacho though.

[champinoman]

To the death!

I can assure you that Nacho is going to vote for Generic. Not because he believes he is scummier than Stubbs but because he likes being a pain in the ass. And he'll hope we vote against him so that he can play the 'you never gave me my 2nd lynch' card.

Any chance you can just get on with it Nacho? I'm pretty sure that if you laid down a vote today we would have a lynch shortly after. Everyone just wants this game to flow until the point where we get to lynch you.

[champinoman]

Just a random question whilst we are waiting on Sir Nacho,

Does anyone at all think that there is a chance that Karnage (Miss Stranger) is the last scum?

[champinoman]

but we should decide if our backup lynch really is Stubbs, or what.

Also everybody taking stances will help if we go to LyLo.

I agree. Everyone should make their views know prior to this lynch.

Mine is irrelevant but I am happy with the Stubbs lynch. I am less certain of Generic being town though after his reaction throughout this day. Just not sitting well.

[champinoman]

Bydefault that would Karnage down as my second

Wow, typing fail.

"By default, that would make put Karnage down as my second" (after Stubbs and Nacho)

Have a 3rd try? lol.

So you believe Generic is more town than Karnage?


On a side note, over 3 days now since Nacho's last post.

[champinoman]

I'm completely shocked and in disbelief that Nacho voted for Generic. [/sarcasm]

VOTE: Generic

We might as well get a move on. No need to drag this out considering Nacho probably wont post again with only 2.5 days left until deadline based on previous record.

[champinoman]

Did Generic just waste 3 weeks of our lives? Surely not. Gotta be scum...

[champinoman]

Hmmmm.....

[champinoman]

Ok, I want to ask something of everyone before I vote. And I know Generic will give me a serving after this game is complete for saying this but I’m willing to risk that

Timeline if we follow current plan

We win if Nacho is scum
-OR-
TownNacho is lynched and I am subsequently NK’d leaving us with 3 people at LyLo with no confirmed townies.

My current thinking

We don’t lynch Nacho yet *ducks for cover* and we give him another lynch.
Now going with worst case scenario let us assume we lynch another townie. That leaves us with 4 going into the night.
Now from here there are 2 possible night outcomes:

1) Scum kills: I would assume that they will kill a confirmed townie. Therefore we enter into day 6 with 3 alive including a confirmed townie.

Better odds than current plan

2) No NK: We enter day 6 with 4 alive. There are 2 possible reasons for this:
a. Nacho is Scum.
b. Scum no killed.
Now in day 6 with 4 alive we can’t lynch Nacho. Because if we do and we are wrong then we lose. However, if Nacho is scum this doesn’t matter because we can lynch him next. Effectively we treat this day as 2 confirmed townies (Nacho and Myself), leaving 2 possible lynch candidates.

Better odds than current plan

.

I know if Nacho ends up flipping town then we have wasted a lot of time, but I can’t help but think ‘what if...’. The only thing we have to lose is time by doing it this way.

So, thoughts? Abuse is also expected.

Please let me know if anything is unclear.

[champinoman]

I'm not saying we are trying to get to endgame with confirmed townies, however having them increases the chance of hitting scum in the event that it is a coin flip decision.

But if we lynch Nacho today and he flips town, then day 6 (with 3p 2:1) we have a 33% chance of hitting scum.
At 4p 3:1 we have increased the odds to 50% (excluding myself and Nacho from calculations).

[*]If we lynch town, someone dies overnight and it's 1:1. Scum win.[/list]But it's not a 50% chance, because

Nacho can still be scum

. The only way this plan benefits us is... if Nacho is scum!

If the one person left other than Nacho and Myself is the last scum then there is no way we were going to win anyway. But at least this way we have given ourselves the best chance of winning.
If Nacho is scum then he dies in D7.

It's all about minimizing risks. We are gaining extra lynches whilst not losing anything. If scum has been playing us the fool by not killing at night then they have just made the game harder for themselves but giving us more opportunities.

[champinoman]

tl;dr: The point was never to get to endgame with confirmed townies. It was to leverage the CHANCE that Nacho is Town and get the optimal number of lynches out of the game, which we've done.

I still think there is more leverage to be done without losing anything.

[champinoman]

When all else fails, a flow chart is required

So as you can see from the chart. We gain an extra lynch by not lynching Nacho today.
Does this explain it better?

[champinoman]

The 'coinflip' only works if Nacho is Town. But we do not, CAN NOT know he is Town until he's dead, or you are (actually even your death won't assure it, but close enough for government work). Until then all lynches are suspect, just like usual.

I think we should all be considering Nacho town during lynches that aren't involving him. Leave his lynch until the last possible moment. This way if scum are trying to make us lynch him they have to keep wasting their night kill. Force scum to do something.

[champinoman]

I don't understand how you can say the chances don't change.

In both scenarios I won't get lynched, so exclude me.
In both scenarios Nacho gets lynched at some point, so exclude him.

If we lynch Nacho today we get 1 lynch with the remaining 3 townies meaning a 33% chance of hitting scum.
If we don't lynch nacho today we get 2 lynches with the 3 remaining townies meaning a 66% chance of hitting scum.

1 extra lynch effectively doubles our chance of winning if Nacho is town. And if he isn't we still are 100% to win.

[champinoman]

For that reason, I still think Branch 1 is the best option.

Can you please confirm which one 'Branch 1' is? Based on what you said I think you mean the branch that doesn't lynch Nacho, but I'm not sure.

* The 75% becomes 74% because there's a tiny, TINY chance that scum nokills that night to force us to lynch NachoTown. In fact it's pretty much their best bet, so it's probably a greater reduction than 1%, but it's not strict probability so fuckit.

I don't see why they'd bother. A simple night kill would win it for them.

[champinoman]

I think the easiest way to look at this is that if we lynch Nacho today we need 1 mislynch to lose. However if we don't lynch him today we need 2 mislynches to lose.

[champinoman]

Can you please respond directly to this post Flay:

I don't understand how you can say the chances don't change.

In both scenarios I won't get lynched, so exclude me.
In both scenarios Nacho gets lynched at some point, so exclude him.

If we lynch Nacho today we get 1 lynch with the remaining 3 townies meaning a 33% chance of hitting scum.
If we don't lynch nacho today we get 2 lynches with the 3 remaining townies meaning a 66% chance of hitting scum.

1 extra lynch effectively doubles our chance of winning if Nacho is town. And if he isn't we still are 100% to win.

Excluding all of the math and probability you have done in your other posts can you please share an opinion on this post. Tell me which parts are correct and which parts are incorrect.

[champinoman]

You're not counting enough coins. There's six coins in the Left Branch (50% Nacho is Scum, plus 1/3 for the second lynch), which gives a 3/4 chance of hitting scum. There's 24 coins in the Right Branch (8/8, 5/8, and 5/8), which gives a 3/4 chance of hitting scum, BUT you have to ignore the game history to go with that argument.

Excluding Nacho distorts the odds. If you weren't Confirmed Town, I'd be suspicious of your motives here.

If Nacho is scum then this game is a town win. Period.

So my odds are based on the fact that he is town. Therefore you need to exclude him. I'm trying to create the best possible chance to find scum in the event that Nacho isn't scum.

So I repeat, do you see any flaw in my logic in said post?

[champinoman]

There's six coins in the Left Branch (50% Nacho is Scum, plus 1/3 for the second lynch), which gives a 4/6 chance of hitting scum.

Fixed.

Your interpretation of the probability is incorrect.

The chance we hit scum is a pure and simple 50%.

Simple Math: There are 4 unconfirmed townies and we get 2 shots at it.

More complex: First try we have a 25% of being correct with the Nacho lynch. Now, in the 75% chance that Nacho wasn't scum, we get another try with odds at 33.3%. Combining the odds is 25% (first attempt) + 25% (33% x 0.75) = 50%

[champinoman]

I may be wrong in the probabilities, but that doesn't explain why nonScumNacho would continue to No Kill. Their chances were much better with 4p MyLo.

I agree. My first thought was that we are clearly dealing with a newbie scum who didn’t do the math. My 2nd thought was that we are dealing with an experienced scum that wanted to present the newbieScum argument in MyLo. WIFOM all the way.

Or another reason they didn't kill last night was that they took my bait:

Well the 1 reason I can think of for mafia not to kill last night would be to eliminate the bulletproof PR from the game. If I was blocked and Nacho was targeted then he is now a VT because he is only a 1 shot bulletproof. It allows for more flexibility later in the game.

Suddenly your version of events is possible:

To wit:

Why would nonNacho scum continue to No Kill last Night?

Killing champino would have netted a 4p MyLo with almostConfTownNacho, like I said earlier. We can either No Lynch, which just puts us in 3p LyLo with no confirmed Town, or take the 33% chance of hitting scum in MyLo.

Why would nonNacho scum not take those odds over a 2/3 or greater chance of autoloss, AND a continued degradation of their ability to control the game?!?

It's hard to get to a 3p LyLo without night killing a bulletproof now isn't it Flay?

[champinoman]

Actually, 3p LyLo is possible without killing the bulletproof however it increases the chance of scum getting lynched in LyLo.

[champinoman]

Ignore #810, I was correct the first time. Flay said "which just puts us in 3p LyLo

with no confirmed Town

", so the bulletproof comment still stands.

[champinoman]

Pre post #817 I was wanting a Stubbs lynch.
Now I want a Flay lynch.

[champinoman]

My lynch preference was always Stubbs, Flay ( a close 2nd), Karnage (a distant 3rd).

Stubbs came in and read what had been posted and agreed that gaining an extra lynch is a good thing. Pretty standard response I would say.

Flay however, this is your day so far:

tl;dr: The point was never to get to endgame with confirmed townies. It was to leverage the CHANCE that Nacho is Town and get the optimal number of lynches out of the game, which we've done.

- Getting to endgame with a confirmed townie increases the odds of lynching scum. So keeping confTown alive is a pretty good aim.
- My proposal continues to leverage Nacho and we are able to consider him an honorary townie for the time being.
- My proposal even allows for an addition lynch. Which in your words above “is a good thing”.

But we do not, CAN NOT know he is Town until he's dead, or you are (actually even your death won't assure it, but close enough for government work).

- Unless you consider me an incompetent fool who can’t jail him every night then he will be a confirmed townie when I die. Stop murkying the waters.

You're not making them 'waste' anything though. The chances don't significantly change down the line... it's about 67% either way.

- You’ve conceded that your probability is out but it still needs to be noted that you tried to argue that it made no difference if we lynched Nacho today or not.

Okay so apparently I'm REALLY rusty at probability. Anyway, Branch NachoScum has a 66.6666% chance of hitting scum. Branch EndlessGame has a 74%* chance of hitting scum overall, but that first lynch has a

much

lesser chance at this point, given the gamestate.

To wit:

Why would nonNacho scum continue to No Kill last Night?

Killing champino would have netted a 4p MyLo with almostConfTownNacho, like I said earlier. We can either No Lynch, which just puts us in 3p LyLo with no confirmed Town, or take the 33% chance of hitting scum in MyLo.

Why would nonNacho scum not take those odds over a 2/3 or greater chance of autoloss, AND a continued degradation of their ability to control the game?!?

For that reason, I still think Branch 1 is the best option. It's the only thing that makes sense; NachoScum's only hope is demoralizing the Town through and endless series of bad lynches. I'll wait for someone to doublecheck my math before revoting.

- You clearly state that not lynching Nacho has a better chance of catching scum (paragraph 1) and then decide that Branch 1 (lynching Nacho) is the better way to proceed.
- Your argument to support this, considering math has been put aside, is gamestate. However, Nacho gets lynched in both scenarios so it is an irrelevant argument to make.
- Not sure how NachoScum can demoralize us considering his lynch is always in the plan no matter which way we go.

I know you think the extra lynch is good, and based on the graph it's slightly better.. But I don't think it's THAT much better, and it makes NO sense in the larger context of the game. Conversely it makes PERFECT sense for NachoScum.

- Are you actually trying to convince us that an extra lynch under the control of town is not beneficial? I’ve even shown the math that in the event of Nacho being town that this extra lynch doubles our chance of winning. DOUBLES. 33% -> 66%.
- Nacho, to repeat again, is a dead scum walking. How does this makes perfect sense?

I don't see why they'd bother. A simple night kill would win it for them.

Can't kill if you block them. Again, it's a tiny chance, but it's nonzero.

- Continuing to add confusion into a simple conversation. If that path is taken it is impossible for me to jail a roleblocker.

Excluding Nacho distorts the odds. If you weren't Confirmed Town, I'd be suspicious of your motives here.

- Trying to cast doubt on what I am saying even though I am confirmed town. Certainly didn’t expect this twist. If I wasn’t confirmed town: name one thing I have said that is scummy? I’m not advocating for Nacho’s survival, I’m just saying it doesn’t have to be his lynch right away.

But I think there's a flaw in the plan.

(and yes, I'm talking about more than my shitty latenight math) According to the graph, Nacho does NOT get lynched in every scenario. Very middle of the chart, there's a Day Six 3p LyLo with Nacho as 'confirmed' Town. But if he lives that long and champino is dead, he's STILL NOT CONFIRMED. Why?

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

NachoScum means we're in Row1, right (otherscum means we're in ColA)? That means that after the N1 missed kill he could have been setting up a ColA claim all along... it's the exact opposite of his position on the chart (C1), and because he was blocked he knows what setup we're in. So worrying about Doctor and Tracker goes out the window... Nacho is sophisticated enough to play the long game on this. I'm not actually saying it's

likely

, but it is why he is Never Confirmed Town Until Dead.

- We’ve covered this before. You are really pushing hard to convince us that if I die that Nacho is still not confirmed town. You know this is not true.

I'd vote Stubbs first, unsurprisingly. There's not enough going against Karnage/Stranger to build a good case, which is the sort of PoE clear that worries me. With Right Branch I don't have to choose though, because everybody gets lynched in the end except one, which I'm obviously hoping is me.

- If you want to be the last alive then you need to present a case that shows both Stubbs and Karnage to be more scummier than yourself. As it stands, I believe you want us to lynch Nacho today because then you only have to convince us that one of Stubbs/Karnage is more scummier than you.

Now, in Left Branch, we learn very quickly what the actual roles are in the game, and go into LyLo with that. Otherwise I solemnly swear that I will be unsurprised when we end up in the middle of the graph...

- Planning to kill tonight to make sure this scenario plays out?
- What’s wrong with a 3p LyLo including a confirmed townie? Seems better than a 3p LyLo with no confirmed townies to me.

3 lynches it is. But for the love of all that is holy, can you two put the pedal down this time? I'm going on vacation for 10 days in less than a week, and would at least like to be done with D5 by then...

Fine then,
VOTE: Mr. Flay

[champinoman]

So your entire argument boils down to an hour or two of bad math. Got it.

Incorrect. My argument boils down to your logic. There is only one reason to want to go down the left path and that is to reduce the chance of lynching scum in the event that Nacho is town.

Also, you are COMPLETELY ignoring my question about why nonNacho Scum would let the game get to its current state. That is the 'gamestate' factor that you are completely ignoring in your quest to make this a probability game. It's not. It's a logic game and the course of action that leads to nonNacho scum makes NO SENSE.

I have not ignored your question. I have agreed that it would have made more sense to make a kill numerous times. Why didn’t they kill? WIFOM.
What is the conclusion you are trying to extract from exploring this WIFOM? It is to lynch Nacho. Does Nacho still get lynched by taking the right hand path? Yes. So what’s your argument again?

So yes, lynch me, lynch somebody, then lynch Nacho. I'm confident I'll be right in the end, and if not, hey, I still have a 74% chance of winning!

If you are willing to stake this game on the fact you think Nacho is scum then sit back, fall on your townie sword and watch as we end up lynching Nacho in the long run anyway. NachoScum dies in every scenario.

- What’s wrong with a 3p LyLo including a confirmed townie? Seems better than a 3p LyLo with no confirmed townies to me.

Why would scum POSSIBLY give you that chance?? All you've done is give them a roadmap for how to win with your graph?

As a confirmed townie I am not letting scum choose which odds they get. I am aiming to get to 3p LyLo with confirmed townie to make the decision easier. The only way we are going to end up at 3p LyLo with no confirmed townie is if scum manage to convince us to lynch Nacho today. So, is there another reason you are pushing so hard for a Nacho lynch today?

[champinoman]

I hope you are right. I still think Nacho is the most likely scum. But I'm in no hurry and don't want to lose this game because we rushed to lynching him.

[champinoman]

I agree. We gave Nacho a chance to defend himself and has dragged this game out like crazy. Stubbs has been quiet. And Karnage hasn't said anything more than needed to avoid a prod.

[champinoman]

Weekend got the better of me again. Bloody bucks weekends...

I see that we are speeding this day up nicely with nobody even placing a vote.

[champinoman]

It's kind of moot with you two driving the bus.

Well everyone has said that they are happy to follow the plan.

Flay: Why are you not voting Stubbs after saying he was your best choice?
Stubbs: Why are you not voting Stubbs after saying he was your best choice?
Nacho: Why have you not placed a vote on who you find scummier out of Stubbs and Karnage? (you said you consider Flay the least likely)
Karnage: Why have you not placed a vote on who you consider the next scummiest after Nacho?

It's irrelevant whether or not these initial votes lead to a majority. We need to see where everyone sits so that it doesn't become a last minute panic to get someone lynched.

[champinoman]

It's irrelevant whether or not these initial votes lead to a majority. We need to see where everyone sits so that it doesn't become a last minute panic to get someone lynched.

We know who my choice would be - I've already said, in 817. Voting does NOTHING until you two make a choice, and it's not like anyone in this game is going to quicklynch with 5 alive. Just look at yesterday... there was a solid building wagon on Nacho for inactivity, and when he came in, everyone fell in line.

So you are not voting to avoid a quicklynch that you said isn't going to happen? I asked for your votes to see who was reluctant to place them.

[champinoman]

Nacho: Am I correct in the assumption that you don't actually find Karnage scummy, however you think both Stubbs and Flay are more likely town than Karnage?

[champinoman]

Nacho: Am I correct in the assumption that you don't actually find Karnage scummy, however you think both Stubbs and Flay are more likely town than Karnage?

No.

Please, don't elaborate or point me in the right direction. That'd actually be helpful.

I can't wait to lynch you.

[champinoman]

Nacho: Am I correct in the assumption that you don't actually find Karnage scummy, however you think both Stubbs and Flay are more likely town than Karnage?

No.

Excluding your vote, the only point over the

last month

that you suggest a Karnage lynch is:

i would love to be useful this day but i literally have no idea what the fuck is going on at this point. i feel great about flay and great about stubbs to the point where i would go with karnage in the end.

So explain to me how my assumption was incorrect?

Just seems like another chance for you to vote against the grain (all other votes were on Flay or Stubbs) to try and drag this saga out. Is that your scum ploy? Drag this game out in the hope we abandon it?

[champinoman]

How's the weather where you are today Nacho?

[champinoman]

I've always considered Stubbs scummier than Karnage so; Nacho, how are you going to convince me to change my mind?

Karnage, why are you against the 3 lynch model? (As it was described above)

[champinoman]

Sorry, at a wedding in the middle of nowhere. No reception so am in the dark ages.

Will be home tomorrow for a catchup.

[champinoman]

ok, back and have had a quick read through. If you think that Karnage is more likely scum than Stubbs then I'll back you up with it. No point dragging this out.

VOTE: Karnage

[champinoman]

VOTE: Nacho

Congrats on the win Stubbs. Hopefully it's a shared victory!

[champinoman]

7 days of fun