Newbie 1391 - Game Over - FINALLY!!!

[Karnage]

Hey guys, I will get caught up and post my thoughts in a couple of hours.

[Karnage]

So I've read the thread and my top scum choice is Mr Flay with Nacho 2nd. Champ is confirmed town and I feel pretty good about generic and stubbs as town.

If nacho isn't scum then there is a RB which negates champ's JK. Which means either scum targeted the BP or no killed. Neither seems to make much sense since I would think scum would just kill the JK to remove a confirmed townie or they could have easily killed a VT without bothering with the BP. Besides WIFOM, is there anything to gain by not killing last night?

If nacho is scum it means there is no RB so champ can continue to safely JK him until lylo.

I'm leaning toward a Mr Flay lynch but we have a lot of time left in the day to work this through.

[Karnage]

Nacho, a couple of quick questions if you don't mind:

1 - as BP, were any of your early posts designed to draw a NK? if so, which ones?
2 - I think your current read on generic is that he could be scum, is that accurate?
3 - Under what conditions is it appropriate for a massclaim?

[Karnage]

I'm going to re-read stubbs...

Nacho isn't helping his case by being inactive. However I still think we save him for tomorrow.

[Karnage]

1 - as BP, were any of your early posts designed to draw a NK? if so, which ones?

No. I draw NKs easily enough already.

2 - I think your current read on generic is that he could be scum, is that accurate?

Yes.

If generic is scum, why would he have hammered antagon so quick at the end of day 1? A move you called incredibly town in 38.

3 - Under what conditions is it appropriate for a massclaim?

What do you mean?

In Newbie 1388 you said "i think we should have a massclaim because it's optimal with one scum down." but in 474 you seemed to be against a massclaim even though we were one scum down. Why a massclaim in one but not the other?

[Karnage]

Maybe we could Lynch Nacho today. Allow me to explain:

We Lynch Nacho today. Here's how we proceed if he flips town:
Champ jailkeeps me(considering everyone has doubts about me)

If there is no nightkill, we have 5 people left tomorrow and you all Lynch me.
Champ will likely die next and Flay/Karnage/Generic play lylo

If there is a nightkill, I will be confirmed town and we'll lynch out of Generic/Flay/Karnage tomorrow.


This will get rid of Nacho/me at lylo. So in case on of you is lying, the odds are better.


Did I Miss something or does this make sense?

Yeah you missed something. If we lynch nacho and he isn't scum it means mafia is a Roleblocker and could block champ so he couldn't JK you. So you can't be cleared tomorrow.

I think I'm coming around to lynching Stubbs today and nacho tomorrow if necessary.

[Karnage]

VOTE: generic

We lynch nacho tomorrow.

[Karnage]

Not even considering that Generic might be scum, Karnage? Why is that?

It was more to prevent a no lynch than anything else. I would have preferred a Stubbs lynch or even yours.

You aren't considering it flay, why is it so odd karnage thinks I'm town.

Should I claim now?

I'm the town bulletproof

I'm confused now. You already claimed VT. If you are the BP why didn't you CC nacho?

[Karnage]

If we lynch somebody other than Nacho we have 3 townies and 1 scum. If scum kills (prob champ) they confirm nacho as town and we go into tomorrow with 2 townies (1 confirmed) and 1 scum. 50/50 chance of lynching scum and winning.

If scum no kills we have 3 townies (1 confirmed) and 1 scum. We are at 33% chance of lynching scum and winning. If nacho isn't scum we are at mylo. So we no lynch? if scum kills we are at 50/50 like before. If they no kill we either lynch nacho or we no lynch/no kill until happily ever after?
If nacho is scum and we mislynch. we go into the next day at mylo and we have to lynch nacho?

If we lynch nacho today (and he is town), champ is killed tonight and it's lylo between me, stubbs, and flay.

i'm not sure the best course of action. i'm leaning toward lynching nacho today.

[Karnage]

But I don't think it's THAT much better, and it makes NO sense in the larger context of the game.

Who are you lynching in Stubbs-You-Karnage lylo after I flip town?
This question goes out to all three of you.

If you were to flip town I would most likely vote for flay as throughout the game he has been a scummier read for me than stubbs.

Karnage, what do you think of the plan?

It's reasonable but I can really see you being scum and worry that we are over complicating things.

BTW, is there a reason you never addressed this:

3 - Under what conditions is it appropriate for a massclaim?

What do you mean?

In Newbie 1388 you said "i think we should have a massclaim because it's optimal with one scum down." but in 474 you seemed to be against a massclaim even though we were one scum down. Why a massclaim in one but not the other?

[Karnage]

If we aren't going to lynch nacho today then VOTE: Mr Flay

[Karnage]

Nacho: Why have you not placed a vote on who you find scummier out of Stubbs and Karnage? (you said you consider Flay the least likely)

I wanted to talk to stubbs a little bit first.

Vote: Karnage

What do you think of my Flay town case?

When I read the game after I replaced in the two players that were scummiest to me were you and flay. I could go back and quote posts but I'm not. I don't have the time right now.

I'd say there is a 66% chance you are scum, 33% that flay is, and 1% that its stubbs.

I'm for either shitting or getting off the pot here.

We lynch flay today and if he is town we lynch nacho tomorrow (or vice versa.) either way its a town win.

[Karnage]

Wait, you're against the three lynch model?

You know what? I think I am.

[Karnage]

I've always considered Stubbs scummier than Karnage so; Nacho, how are you going to convince me to change my mind?

Karnage, why are you against the 3 lynch model? (As it was described above)

I'm 99% sure nacho is scum but if he isn't we lose with his lynch since that would make stubbs a Roleblocker.

I'm 99% sure that stubbs is town but if he isn't then we can still lynch nacho tomorrow for the win.

My gut is telling me to just lynch nacho and be done with it but my brain is saying that lynching stubbs (even if he is most likely town) is the better play.

[Karnage]

Nacho, how are you going to convince me to change my mind?

i thought stubbs's play yesterday was town as hell, for one. karnage not voting me now shows that probably has no idea what the hell is going on and was fine with that for the past three days (or however long he's been the replacement, I forget).

I know whats going on... you are scum and champ has JK'd you the past 5 nights or whatever. Though I'm pretty sure you are scum, the safe play is to lynch stubbs.
VOTE: stubbs

[Karnage]

why do you think I am scum?

The biggest reason is that you have been jailed for however many nights and there hasn't been a kill...

[Karnage]

did you have any other reasoning?

A lot of it is gut feel from reading through the thread but here is some stuff from day 1:

240 - "Overall, Antagon is scummy as fuck and makes for a wonderful lynch. I think it's about getting to be claim time on that one." So why not state any intent to hammer??? Why did you never actually vote for antagon?

244 & 249 - coach much??? I also think that was the last time you directly commented on somebody that "makes for a wonderful lynch".

259 - Antagon was at L-2 here. Why not vote him? I don't think you posted anything about changing your mind on him? instead you make a pointless vote on champ.

261 - trying to redirect feel it (who was voting antagon at the time) to your "case" on champ.

[Karnage]

Lynch nacho tomorrow...