Mini 1468: Legends of the Hidden Temple- Game Over!

[qwints]

/confirm

Reading. Now on p.6

[qwints]

VOTE: Amrun

Here's how I'm feeling right now:

Town reads: Elyse; Majiffy; Mollie; AP
Scum reads: Amrun; Grim

That leaves: wisdom, enomis and venmar.

Elyse was an early townread (given hindsight) due to the jokey "obv-town" comment on NS. There was no reason for her to draw attention like she did if she were scum. She's also a critical part of the NS switch. She's town.

Majiffy's early drunken challenge seems overconfident town majiffy to me, and he's town for being first on the final version of the NS wagon

Mollie's town because Majiffy says so.

Amrun's early game theorizing came off as scummy. He hammered SC early on, and then avoided the NS wagon while voicing very limited support

I think we should lynch ns if he doesn't provide content today.

I don't actually want to lynch him over AP. I want to use the threat of lynching him to force him to produce content. But if I'm not willing to put my money where my mouth is, it's an empty threat. And the thing is, if he's not going to provide content at all, it's better to lynch him now than later even if he IS Town.

The sad thing is is that he probably is town because usually as scum he puts in some token effort.

I love NS but in a 4 scum night less game we can't afford dead weight.

In fact, Safety dance has produced SOMETHING, and what he has produced I lean scum on.

But ns hasn't posted anything at all but prod dodges.

and then claims credit with:

challenge the monkeys

Well, that's why we lynch ns. He is too hard to read to keep around very long.

[qwints]

For Amrun, he should be she. Sorry.

Her play on D2 is classic distancing without being willing to actually bus. And I don't buy Wisdom's claim that Amrun distancing from Grimm now means that they can't be scum buddies.

@Wisdom, I'm conflicted on two and null on the thrird. I've got a legal pad filled with red and black for you and venmar, and somehow read the game without making any notes on enomis.

@AP, NOT

JUST

TO SURVIVE. HAPPY?

[qwints]

Here is my entire notes on why I think mollie is town. "Majiffy ---[black line]--> Mollie" So no, not from my initial read through.

The AP town-read is entirely based on the reaction to the fake hammer.

For Grim, I have Grim -->SC & Wisdom post 770 (720?). I'll review that.

[qwints]

SafetyDance is obvtown.

It was. My bad. So forget that point.

@Wisdom, I've got a legal pad that I made two pages of notes on. I use red for scummy things and black for townie things.

[qwints]

[red]Venmar - slip after Amrun's townslip. x2. Venmar idiocy.[/red]
[black]Venmar challenged scum. Venmar's goading of Wisdom[/black]

[black] Wisdom ---> Grimm. Wisdom's early town clearing[/black]
[red]Grim--->SC Wisdom/Grimm 770]; SC's 410 ------> inconsistency Wisdom b/w majiffy and mollie[/red]

[qwints]

on you two, yes.

[qwints]

Raw transcription of notes:

[red] Amrun's 166 gets scum count wrong[/red]

[black]Elyse 228 - obvtown read on NS/joke[/black]

[black]Amrun early town on Widsom[/black]

[red] Amrun's "townslip "run up" "planning"[/red]

[black] Wisdom ---> Grimm[/black]

[red] Venmar "slip x 2[/red]
[black] Venmar Challenged scum[/black]

[black] Majiffy---> Mollie[/black]

[black SC's 410][red Wisdom Majiffy/Mollie]

[red Grim ---> SC, Wisdom 720]

[black] Majiffy's Early challenge]

[qwints]

And qwints you're seriously telling us you didn't find anything else about me or Venmar in 65 pages to form a read from?

In my initial read through, taking less than two hours while I was doing other work, no I did not. It's not purely a mechanical result, but I am conflicted on both of you as of right now.

[qwints]

Venmar Challenged scum

?
Venmar challenged me, are you calling me scum?

Venmar's challenge ended in a scum lynch.

[qwints]

SC'410 pointed out the scummy inconsistency of Wisdom towards Majiffy and Mollie.

[qwints]

StrangerCoug's flip does complicate things tremendously.
I look like a bit of an idiot now, don't I?

Still, pretty certain of this one:

VOTE: Wisdom

I had this as red for you, but I'm pretty sure I meant it as red for Grimm.

[qwints]

You can't be serious now. You agree that Venmar deserves towncredit for the NS lynch in any way?

Venmar deserves some town cred for making a challenge that ends in a scum lynch. Yes.

[qwints]

To further explain, anytime one scum challenges the team of another scum is suboptimal. There's an incentive for scum to avoid it.

[qwints]

Wisdom, will you at least agree that scum has an incentive not to challenge another team that has scum on it? That's why it's a small point in Venmar's favor.

[qwints]

Bullshit. His sole motivation was to lynch me. He never wanted to lynch NS.

That's certainly what he tried to do. [I don't remember if he ended up on the NS wagon or not, but he certainly came after you to start]. But a lynch pool with TWO scum is less good for scum than a lynch pool with ONE scum. Venmar-scum could easily have created a lynch-pool with ONE scum by challenging a two-townie team or a team with only one person on it.

[qwints]

The point is that Venmar does not gain any town points for that challenge, since he never contributed in a NS lynch.

That's not the point. ONE SCUM IN A LYNCH POOL IS MORE DESIRABLE THAN TWO SCUM IN A LYNCH POOL IF SCUM ARE PICKING. Since venmar picked a lynch pool with another person who was scum, he'd have had to take a suboptimal situation if he were scum. Could he have done that? OF COURSE. SCUM MAKE SUBOPTIMAL PLAYS ALL THE TIME FOR LOTS OF SCUM MOTIVATED REASONS. But, it's still a small point in his favor. If he'd gone hardcore after NS from the beginning, he'd be a town read for me, not a conflicted one.

[qwints]

Except that would make absolutely no sense given everything he had said and done until that point. The whole game he was tunneling on me and calling me scum. It would be hypocrisy if he challenged anyone else.

But he also didn't have to challenge in the first place.

[qwints]

Venmar said he would challenge in 749 and challenged in 760. He didn't have to commit himself to a challenge.

[qwints]

I didn't avoid the NS wagon. I actually started it, though eventually unvoted in order to vote for AP.

This is a lie. Amrun never voted for NS.

[qwints]

Also qwints could you summarize the Elyse/you QT for us when you have a chance?

Elyse summarized it correctly. I've added one additional post asking if there's anything I should focus on and acknowledging the current game state.

[qwints]

An explanation of my read of Grimm as scum:

He's extremely inconsistent in his reading of Majiffy:

From:

Could people explain their townread on Majiffy please? The growning consensus in this regard seems to indicate I'm missing something very obvious.

To:

I'll probably just sheep Majiffy when push comes to shove. I really want you to be scum as well though.

I don't see how good faith town gets to 776 given his previous iso. It makes sense for scum looking for an excuse to end on the AP wagon.

His vote on wisdom while suggesting he might get on an AP wagon is also wildly inconsistent given that he thought SC-Scum --> Wisdom-Scum.

StrangerCoug's flip does complicate things tremendously.
I look like a bit of an idiot now, don't I?

Still, pretty certain of this one:

VOTE: Wisdom

So right now I think that Wisdom is most likely town if Grim is scum and that Grim is scum.

Now to analyze whether Grim scum is consistent with Amrun being scum as some or saying or if I need to re-evalute my vote.

[qwints]

Amrun's flip will absolve me.

So, here's the point I'm focused on to suggest Grim-Amrun makes sense. Has either really done more than the mutual distancing that lead to the above thought?

[qwints]

Wisdom, I think you're right even if it's not quite as simple as the single interaction you point out.

First let's look at Grim's interactions with NS:

VOTE: Nobody Special

Even if only to spur him towards more content. He can't stay in hiding forever.

Don't have an especially strong townread on any of the four anymore. AngryPidgeon is my preference, but not enough to put him at L-1 already. Elyse and amrun on his wagon aren't exactly reassuring either.

Looking at Grim's and NS's iso makes this clear - NS generated no content before Grim moved his vote away to wisdom. A vote that came as the AP wagon came apart and the NS wagon was starting to pick up momentum as Majiffy and my slot joined it. It looks very much to me like someone who was distancing and then hesitated before bussing. Read Grimm's iso yesterday, he's for pressuring NS, throws the first vote down, believes in the wagon, but suddenly jumps off before he gets back on at the end.

Now looks at his the difference in his play with Amrun:

Early defense of Amrun: post 288 and post 291 - deflecting some attacks from AP and SC.

Dumb attacks on Amrun - Scum more likely to get number of scum wrong/ you didn't specifically deny something, so you agree with it. post 293 and 300 ending in some very weak pressure in 312 that's turns into non-pressuring bickering in 372. On the other hand, this is a lot of interaction for two scum early on.

After shifting his focus, he attacks the wk'ing amrun with 478 then shifts back to defending her. 540. Then a long gap before the next passing mention of Amrun in 967. Then he puts Amrun, out of nowhere, at the end of a suspect list in 1146

So far, aside from the heavy early interactions, some attacking, some defending and a lot just neutral.

Then he starts heavily attacking Amrun as a suspect.

1205 - calls her obv-scum, 1239She's the next one to lynch[/url] and tunneling on her all day today after Amrun challenged at wisdom's suggestion.

I agree that this strongly suggests that if Grimm is scum, then Amrun isn't. [Grim would have taken the chance to jump ship if they were both scum] And therefore if Amrun is scum, then Grim isn't. And the heavy early interactions lend support to that notion, even if some of the content doesn't.

But here's the thing - Amrun has still been independently scummy as I've already mentioned. We should still lynch her for that independent scumminess (hammered SC, avoided NS despite later claiming she'd voted him).

[qwints]

IF Amrun scum:

Amrun, Wisdom, Enomis(poe)

If Amrun town:

Grim, Venmar, Enomis.

You make a good point.

UNVOTE: Amrun
VOTE: Enomis

[qwints]

VOTE: Nobody Special

Even if only to spur him towards more content. He can't stay in hiding forever.

Don't have an especially strong townread on any of the four anymore. AngryPidgeon is my preference, but not enough to put him at L-1 already. Elyse and amrun on his wagon aren't exactly reassuring either.

Based on lurking + null reads + his summary of a QT? That doesn't make any sense.

[qwints]

Also why do you see Venmar as scum if Amrun is town but not if she's scum?

I don't think this is bussing:

I think there was at least 1 scum on the NS wagon, and 1 scum off the NS wagon. The 4th is wherever, idk.

I looked back at Amrun's unvote after I supposedly "hammered", and upon second thought it looks really forced if you ask me, like her reaction my vote looks really fake. Amrun was also eager to restart the AP wagon by saying AP's reaction was scum ( which it really wasn't ), and then didn't partake in the NS wagon... why?

Vote: Amrun

I'll be absent for the whole day today, but Amrun needs rope and rope needs more votes, so please lynch her.

[qwints]

No. I was responding to 1803 and accidentally put in the last thing I'd quoted instead.

[qwints]

Wisdom, I was unsure of how I felt about you, Venmar and enomis after my initial read through over the two hours after I replaced in. I can't go further than that. As I've said, my reads are starting to become dependent on Amrun's alignment, but I'm also pretty sure that enomis is scum based purely on POE. (The only scenario I see where enomis isn't scum involves a Majiffy-Mollie scum team which I still is unlikely.

Going back and reading enomis, all I see is a complete lack of clear stands and hedging. Combined with the fact that his posting correlates really well with the beginning of pressure on him, I think he needs lynching at some point.

[qwints]

That hes scum?

Let me try saying it outloud. He reads you as null....so you should assume hes scum. No, not seeing why you are all up in arms about his nullread on you. And IIRC you were more concerned about his nullread on Venny.

No, I mean. He says he doesn't have a read on me. So I assume, from his read, he got "

these

things show town-Wisdom, but hmm.. there are

these

things that could show scum-Wisdom. Therefore I don't have a read on him"
And that's what I asked him to do.
But he didn't have anything.

That is a correct representation of my thinking. I'm sorry my notes proved insufficient for you.

[qwints]

Wait, mollie you don't think grim has been scummy?

[qwints]

HEY ENOMIS,

Care to explain why you have 1 (ONE) vote this game?

Please rank the other 3 people that can be lynched today besides yourself.

[qwints]

Why would "doesn't have a read" necessarily mean "I feel both ways about you" as opposed to "I really don't feel either way about you?"

Because I do not see how someone cannot feel either way after reading ~600 posts of me.

It's hard to parse 62 pages of posts that quickly. I got relational tells, and predictions for how you'd behave with each alignment, but not a definitive read. (Y'all are talking about me, right?)

[qwints]

IF Amrun scum:

Amrun, Wisdom, Enomis(poe)

Forgot about something that rules this out: Wisdom telling amrun to challenge green. That's not a possible combination. And if neither Venmar nor Grim can be paired with Amrun, then I have to rethink either my town reads or my Amrun scum read. I do see what people are saying about Amrun as an informational lynch.

Wisdom, why did you tell Amrun to do that?

[qwints]

Yeah, that's my point. That's why I thought that you would have some towntells and some scumtells for those you didn't have a read on as opposed to nothing like AP says.

I felt like I had conflicting evidence on you and Venmar, and had nothing on Enomis. I considered the notes you found so lacking to support that conclusion.

[qwints]

Wisdom, why did you tell Amrun to do that?

Because we agreed on that the previous day. See 1200.

I'm not seeing where Amrun agreed to that, but I think it's safe to conclusively rule out Amrun-enomis-wisdom as a possibility.

[qwints]

So basically you skimmed the thread (which is acceptable, not accusing you for that or anything) and found only 1 point for town/scum for each of us. You didn't actually read the whole thread and only had 1 point on each of us. Is that right? Because I assumed the latter and I couldn't understand how you only had these small things over tons of things that have been happening.

Basically.

[qwints]

Wisdom, please remind me what your current read on Elyse is again.

[qwints]

HEY ENOMIS,

Care to explain why you have 1 (ONE) vote this game?

Please rank the other 3 people that can be lynched today besides yourself.

Hmmm... Dunnoe.

Why is someone who posts like this not lynched yet?

[qwints]

Grim, stop taking crazy pills and get on enomis. Elyse is town.

[qwints]

Grim, why not drop the "too scummy to be scum" nonsense and vote enomis?

[qwints]

Grim's waffling towards the end of yesterday was terribad. As was enomis escaping by lurking and AP letting him. I think Grim should challenge enomis. I wouldn't mind putting AP in the lynch pool after that hammer.

[qwints]

I'd agree to challenge enomis or grim if people are opposed to a 1 v 1. I'd prefer Red-Silver, Orange-Red or Orange-Silver (in that order), but enomis and grim are my two top scum reads so I'd much prefer to lynch one of them first rather than try and pick between Venmar and AP.

[qwints]

Enomis, you completely refused to take a stand on the amrun lynch yesterday and basically let it happen. Trying to avoid the scrutiny that either hammering or pushing a case on me or Elyse would have brought you fits in with the rest of your previous lurker-scum play. Your play today is a pretty dramatic flipping of the switch presumably because you were bound to draw more attention today after amrun flipped town.

Grim, your unvoting and re-voting of amrun didn't make sense. If you were really unsure, you could have just unvoted and waited. There wasn't a deadline or another lynch that would have gone through. It looked like you were trying to distance yourself from the amrun lynch before it happened. Because you knew amrun flipped town, and today you could harvest town cred by pointing to the waffling. But the indecision doesn't seem genuine because you didn't wait for anything to happen before revoting.

[qwints]

Spoiler: Background Info

StrangerCoug

(7) - enomis, Venmar, Majiffy, pirate mollie, Grimgroove,

Nobody Special

,

Amrun

,
Grimgroove (3) - AngryPidgeon, Wisdom, Elyse
Majiffy (2) -

SafetyDance

qwints,

StrangerCoug

pirate mollie (0) -

StrangerCoug of the Silver Snakes

,

brave explorer

, has been lynched!

Nobody Special (6) - Majiffy,qwints

SafetyDance

, Wisdom, Elyse, Grimgroove, AngryPidgeon
Wisdom (1) - Venmar
AngryPidgeon (0) -
Venmar (0) -

Not Voting (5) - enomis, pirate mollie,

Nobody Special

,

Amrun

Nobody Special of the Purple Parrots

,

Temple Guard

, has been lynched!

Amrun(6) - Venmar, pirate mollie, Majiffy, Wisdom, Grimgroove, AngryPidgeon
enomis(2) - qwintz, Elyse
qwints (1) -

Amrun

Elyse (0) -

Not Voting (1) - enomis,

Amrun of the Red Jaguars

,

brave explorer

, has been lynched!

Day 1: Majiffy challenged Silver (Blue and Silver)
Day 2: Venmar Challenged Purple (Orange and Purple)
Day 3: Amrun challenged Green (Red and Green)

So all the teams have been challenged once. Mollie was voted on day 1. Venmar was basically never voted day 2. Elyse was basically never voted day 3.

A priori odds of scum distribution:

2 teams with 2 scum: 315/10,395 (3%) [Number of ways to pair up two 2 scum teams * number of ways to pair up four 2 town teams]
1 teams with 1 scum; 2 team with 1 scum: 5,355/10,395 (51%) [Number of ways to pair up one 2 scum team * number of ways to pair up the remaining 10 players - above]
3 teams with 1 scum: 4,725/10,395 (46%) [Number of ways to pair up 12 players - 2 above cases]

Not a lot of help. It's pretty intuitive that the odds of two double scum teams was quite low. It's worth noting that it's slightly more likely that there's one team with 2 scum than no teams with 2 scum, but that's not much of an edge.

[qwints]

Was that it, I thought there was more opposition to my enomis-grim proposal than that.

[qwints]

Oh no, Wisdom just opposed it because he townreads grim for some strange reason.

[qwints]

You L-1'd NS and your mind was on lynching Amrun.
That's scum behavior and instantly proves Amrun is not your buddy.
That's what.

VOTE: Grimgroove

What was your hurry?

[qwints]

Sorry, those were separate points. My point was to bring up what wisdom had already said about grim, and then grim challenged.

Grim, why challenge now? Why were you lining up the amrun lynch on D2?

[qwints]

Ap, you've had enomis as scum for a long time, but you jumped off him yesterday to hammer amrun

[qwints]

Why are you worried about being tied to a player that isn't even up to lynch?

Why the fuck is qwints saying that my hammer was bad. He was VOTING Amrun and now my hammer is super suspicious...for protecting Enomis. I don't see how he can possibly buy that.

The problem with your play isn't suspecting Amrun, it's the fact that you were on enomis, were getting support for that wagon and decided to jump off and hammer it. Then there's the fact that you CALLED ENOMIS SCUM WHEN YOU HAMMERED SOMEONE ELSE:

I tell myself I'll get motivated to do this on the weekends all week and then I just wanna not think hard about anything on the weekends >.>

Intent to hammer Amrun.

This game isn't going forward any other way.

Enomis doesn't want to hammer Amrun because hes nervous scum (regardless of Amruns flip).

You were on enomis all day, but as soon as he became a viable target as opposed to me or amrun, you decided to hammer. That's why I think you and enomis makes sense.

[qwints]

Moving to today's lynch, why the hell haven't you voted for Grim yet AP? You've had him on your scum team forever.

[qwints]

Here's the main reason right now:

I'm at work posting from my phone but I'm fucking pissed off at AP.

The fact you had to bring your real life into this is fucking messed up. I found out my grandmother died last night. Did I mention that? No. Why? Because I'm not a whiny baby and I can play this game by setting aside my personal life.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Nobody Special

enomis and Safety are basically conf scum to me. NS/Grim doesn't make sense together but Im pretty sure one is scum.

Elyse swung the momentum from an AP lynch to the NS lynch. It doesn't make sense as bussing, especially because if she were scum she'd be clearing Grim by saying he couldn't be on a team with NS.

That wagon is also where's Grim's scumminess is revealed because he tries so hard to stay off the lynch despite advocating for it early on. Read the iso and you'll see the distancing.

[qwints]

Enomis, take a stand and vote somebody. Your recent activity doesn't mean anything for your alignment if you're not actively trying to help find scum instead of sitting back and asking questions.

Grim, what was your read on Elyse when you challenged?

Where'd mollie go? Didn't she promise a re-read yesterday?

[qwints]

I think Elyse and molly are town.

[qwints]

1. Elyse isn't scum.
2. Enomis's refusal to take any stand means he is scum.
3. There's at least one scum one the Elyse wagon.

[qwints]

2 is still true.
3 becomes that no one on Elyse's wagon is scum except possibly pirate mollie.

[qwints]

Grim, what was your read on Elyse when you challenged?

Scum.
But now I kind of changed my mind about that.

Why did you ask me this question?

I was trying to figure out when you changed your mind.

[qwints]

Majiff's making more sense than wisdom right now, but I keep going back to the voting patterns. Elyse would have to be scum doing whatever she could to appear townie no matter how inconvenient that was for scum - including being a big part of the NS lynch and fighting the Amrun lynch for a wagon on a target I still think is scum - enomis. I just don't buy that from scum, especially in a nightless where all we need to do is have scum+1 obv-townies alive to win.

[qwints]

Majiffy, both grim and I don't like the case on Elyse. Doesn't that suggest you should reevaluate?

[qwints]

The way he phrased it makes it very clear that the combination of him AND me is somehow particular.

It's important because we're the two alternatives to Elyse. Both of us have a basic survival incentive to believe a case against her because, right now, we have to choose between her, each other and ourselves. We both had the opportunity to hammer. That means that, from my perspective, I thought the odds of grim getting lynched + grim being scum were higher than the odds of elyse being scum*. Same thing for grim if grim were town. That means majiffy should be confident that at least one townie isn't buying his case despite having a strong incentive to believe it.

*I obviously would have hammered elyse if I was indifferent between elyse and grimm, but it goes further than that. Because there is some risk of me being lynched today, I have a lower burden to lynch someone else because I know that I'm town and I'm an alternative. If there was no chance of lynching grimm, I would vote elyse instantly since, for me, the odds of her being scum are automatically higher than the odds of me being scum. Because I think 1) Elyse is most likely town; 2) grim is most likely scum; and 3) I can persuade town to lynch grimm correctly, I'm willing to risk my mislynch.

[qwints]

Qwints: How likely do you think Grim is to flip scum?

I think it's really likely at this point. I'd be surprised if he didn't.

@Qwints: Ok, so if Elyse is town and Grim is scum why did Grim not hammer? You monologued a bit about why _you_ didn't and of course it involves you being town.

Remember that grim wasn't vigorously opposing a hammer, but taking a wishy-washy stance against Elyse as scum. My guess is he thought he could scare me into hammering out of self-preservation. It's also worth pointing out that the pressure was on Elyse and me, not him, while he had the opportunity to hammer.

These are his posts on elyse while the voting is qwints and wisdom on grim, grim on qwints and majiffy on elyse.

Read Elyse's posts. There's an all-knowing aura around her posts, she KNOWS how people will flip, you can sense it from everything she says. She's now trying to cash in on this "all)knowingness" in two ways: towncred + getting me lynched by calling me obvscum.

Elyse: This one is really difficult. Probably the most difficult of all of them. I can copy/paste what I said before about this all-knowngness she seems to portray. It just doesn't feel like she's scumhunting. It feels like she already knows how everyone is aligned, and uses this knowledge to her strategical advantage by townreading those in distress and scumreading those who are scumhunting but on the wrong track. Nobody Special was the ideal scum-sacrifice to this end, and Amrun, a close to universal scumread, the perfect buddy. But there is the chance Elyse is simply a far better townplayer than I am and just expects the same qualities from other town, resulting in a genuine scumread on me for failing to live up to these standards. I really don't know. No clue. But I'll lynch her over myself, obviously, so I won't have any qualms to vote her if a majority on qwints is out of the question.

Then, after Wisdom switches from voting grim to me in 2173 (not counting the early switch he immediately retracted), Elyse becomes a town read:

Not lynching Elyse though, while ISO'ing her in this process I stumbled upon 1993 again and I have to say, they don't make posts townier than that. I made a similar statement about that before, and reading it again now it's amazing how this post influences my read on her.
She's just town on the wrong track.

A switch that doesn't stop him giving other reasons for Elyse to be scum as the Elyse wagon forms.

So grim would have been happy with an Elyse lynch since he could get his town cred from an Elyse flip while staying alive. He wouldn't that towncred by hammering her, and since I had more pressure than he did, he was probably hoping I would hammer someone he knew was a townie, which he could use to line up my mislynch next.

[qwints]

Some quick responses to grim's walling
1) The notes were a one time thing taken during my re-read. I definitely overstated the extent of my notes in my first reference, which I made clear in response to Wisdom's probing on the subject. I have not been taking notes since that initial re-read.
2) Self-meta is always bullshit. The games I've played are on my wiki, and I've played with several of the people in here before. I'll be glad to point out games that fit a certain criteria if anyone wants to look, but I don't see a point in my describing my own play.
3) Elyse and I's QT has been quiet. Since elyse's description, elyse commented that she thought amrun was town and grim was scum and that enomis was the best lynch from that lynchpool. I've said that AP's hammer seemed scummy and asked her what she thought of enomis's sudden activity before the challenge today. She re-affirmed her scum-read of enomis and has complained about how the game is going.

Meanwhile, let me restate the main reason I think grim is scum right now (which, despite the fact that grim replied to it, hasn't gotten enough scrutiny)

Grim was voting NS. He repeatedly said that NS was a good vote. But he got off the wagon as soon as it picked up steam, and then got back on once it appeared inevitable. Look at these posts, four hours apart:

I believe sticking with NS for now is better.

Do you think AP made up his RL story?

You sound frustrated you're being bereft of an almost certain mislynch because of reasons you don't like.

But just because you don't like the reasons, doesn't mean they're not valid.

And they are. Not only Majiffy's logic convinced me (I was thinknig along the same lines anyway when it comes to that), but also A's description of what was going on sounds too genuine to be fake. There's no way you can't see that.

I'm going to move my vote back on to you, because of this obvious disappointment you're enduring. If you're town, you should be happy there were arguments brought forward that make AP very very town.

VOTE: Wisdom

He then unvotes Wisdom in 1146, and says that we need more from NS, BUT DOESN'T REVOTE NS. Why? BECAUSE THERE'S NOW A CHANCE NS MIGHT ACTUALLY BE THE LYNCH. Even though, his original reasoning for voting NS was to get more from NS. See 886 and 895.

He only goes back to voting NS to place the L-1 vote with his tough sounding post that lined up the Amrun mislynch:

Fine, I'll take you AtE.
I obviously did not read your game again, I might as well start reading the Bible, but pff, I thought about it.
I'd feel bad about letting you slide once again in case you do end up being scum, but I'd feel worse if you're actual town having put a lot of effort in this game and letting Nobody Special being lurksack lazy scum with 11 posts live on. Somehow doesn't seem fair.
So yeah, congrats, your AtE worked.
But I still think your play vis-à-vis Amrun has been very dubious. I hope you agree she is the next one to lynch and won't be throwing around any wild scenraios again just to make her seem town somehow. She is obvscum.

VOTE: Nobody Special

This is

L-1

.

I do think last words from Nobody Special are in order.

What's different now that makes him vote (read: bus) NS? There are no other viable options, with only one (1) vote anywhere else.

[qwints]

Grim, you keep purposefully misinterpreting me. The "quick reply" was the numbered list above the case, not the case itself. A case you still haven't been able to rebut, despite the reference to 2381 which says nothing about you hopping on then off then on NS. You haven't explained why you suddenly thought the pressure on NS was a bad idea, despite saying he needed pressure to respond.

Seriously, 4 hours passed between

I believe sticking with NS for now is better.

and

VOTE: Wisdom

.

Then, twenty minutes after that grim unvotes wisdom in 1146 BUT DOESN'T REVOTE NS. Instead, he later decides it's time to say

[quote="In post 1157, Grimgroove"

Let's wait for Nobody Special a bit.[/quote]

Only once it's clear the NS lynch is inevitable does grim get on that wagon. There's a reason I keep hammering this, it's a move that only makes from a scum who's distancing, then tries to buy time then is forced into bussing. Otherwise, why didn't grim revote NS after he switched away from wisdom. Grim has also tried to fencesit without fencesitting with his repeated switches on reads that just don't make sense.

[qwints]

Here's the thing about Grim's "I kept a diary therefore I'm town" argument - the only downside to him doing that as scum is more work. There's no mechanism for verifying his QT, and no downside to him redacting or editing later to avoid any scumslips he might have made contemporaneously.

Meanwhile, he STILL hasn't explained why he didn't revote NS in 1146. Seriously, look at grim and NS's posts together. NS posts NOTHING after Grim says "I believe sticking with NS for now is better." but Grim seemingly forgets all about pressuring NS/lynching the lurker until his final L-1 vote when NS was the only option.

To further build upon this case, let's look at how Grim has explained this behavior:

NS was indeed a null-read. I really don't see how this comes as a surprise, given he had only posted 11 times.

But I digress.
So NS was null. Yes, I thought I saw some townishness in his last post, where he said he really had no idea who to call scum anymore and how he was at a complete loss. To me this sounded honest. It gave him townpoints. It didn't make him town. One post like that obviously does not make you town.
I also never called him scum. When removing my vote from Wisdom I said this, in 1239:

I'd feel bad about letting you slide once again in case you do end up being scum, but I'd feel worse

if

you're actual town having put a lot of effort in this game and letting Nobody Special being lurksack lazy scum with 11 posts live on. Somehow doesn't seem fair

Notice the word in bold.
This choice for moving my vote was me simply being pragmatic about things.

Both were equally possibly scum in my eyes at that point, but given Wisdom's activity you'd know there will be further chances to read him and catch him.
Like many correctly said, what Nobody Secpail had given us at that point, was probably all that he was going to give us even if we had kept him alive.

But this is inconsistent with

I believe sticking with NS for now is better.

which comes AFTER NS's last post and doesn't match Grim's QT thoughts posted in 2381.

Later he describes NS as:

Nobody Special was a nullread, a complete shot in the dark. His inactivity killed him as far as I'm concerned, but when lynching an inactive I think it's fairly natural to alrzady look ahead towards more rewarding lynches for reasons that are more pinpointable.

Which is fine as far as it goes, but it doesn't match his earlier post saying that some of NS's behavior was townie. And it doesn't explain why he took the pressure off NS without revoting him.

And that is how grim rebunked this case "500 times already". Grim knows he's caught, and he's trying to deflect by saying it's an old case, by complaining about the way I'm making the case, by doing everything but explain why his behavior exactly matches a distancing scum who's afraid to bus until the outcome is inevitable.

Let's not forget that grim and NS pushed the SC wagon over the top when grim was the closest alternative, and that grim insisted on the Amrun lynch, which although a sensible choice, allowed enomis to escape further pressure. (Though remind me not to forget AP's hammers on NS and Amrun, AP's reaction to the reaction test feels less obv-town the more I re-read, and I get the feeling that he's buddying in a way that bothers me given his meta. And considering that Majiffy-molly is a plausible combination, this Elyse wagon really stinks.)

[qwints]

tl;dr

Grim, why didn't you revote NS in 1146?

[qwints]

My response to the points Grim just made against me.

But qwints is clearly not an idiot.

He's scum.

Thank you.

No, I'm town. You're scum.

qwints is even worse [about being opportunistic than Elyse]. Sneaky bastard.

I left the Amrun wagon for the enomis wagon. I've defended Elyse today despite it favoring my self-preservation to suspect the people in my lynch pool. Funny story, I actually had to help my mom find her marriage license once, so I can confirm she was legally married two years before I was born.

qwints is not only scummy for [bringing up the NS wagon case](considering you claim to have a scumread on him you should know that), but yes, that "vase" made him scummy. First of all it's not his case, second it ignores anything that I had to say about it, thirdly he claims it comes up natural and without care in a "quick" reply, while this is obviously something pre-prepared, possibly something he even had in some word-document just to copy and paste at a time that is strategically beneficial to him. As in, now. Does that sound like something town would do?

I'm not the first to make the case, Amrun made it. That doesn't make it invalid. Second, what you've had to say about it is inconsistent (which you've just admitted) and weak. Third, as I said above, the case wasn't the quick reply, the responses to your points were as I said in [url="http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p5158891]2428[/url].

Grim, you're making a lot of smoke and heat, but you're shining very little light on anything right now.

[qwints]

Seraphic, the main thing to do is to read the rules and understand this unusual game set-up, since a lot of players have seemed to have trouble with it.

[qwints]

For what it's worth, SeraphicMirth never asked a similar question in the old games she replaced into, which all are townie for her. As far as I can tell, she never replaced into a scum slot in any of those games.

[qwints]

First, thanks for replacing in. This was a tough game to catch up when I replaced on page 62, and it's only gotten more convoluted. Combine that with the previous player in your slot refusing to take any stands and posting only when heavily pressed, and I imagine the mod had a nigh-impossible task. This game will take more work for less fun than most you could have joined, and you replacing in helps us prevent wasting the ton of time we've all put into this game. We're not up against a deadline, so you've got the time to try and re-read the game. While that has no bearing on alignment, it's worth mentioning.

Now, you haven't improved the slot at all in the little bit you've done so far. That's also one of the easiest times for scum to screw up, which is why you're getting this pressure. You asked for reads before giving any (scummy), then tried to walk it back (scummy). In addition, rather than asking for particularly important events that require deeper analysis, you asked for the "main people under suspicion." It's certainly possible that this is something a player always does, regardless of alignment, but you never did it in the past as town. I've had a long hiatus as well, and when I came back I relied heavily on my old ways of playing at first. You also think that somebody putting pressure on you comes off scummy. You literally can't be lynched today, which you know, so there's no reason to worry about the relatively light pressure you've had.

[qwints]

POE is process of elimination.

Mod, could we get prods on Mollie and AP?

[qwints]

The challenging thing is interesting...what if we just have all town up there? :-/

How likely do you think that is?

[qwints]

If anyone takes Seraphic off the hook by hammering before she states an opinion, I'm challenging you tomorrow.

[qwints]

Let's do what we should have done yesterday.

VOTE: Grim

[qwints]

I really, really don't like that Grim's V/LA has combined with the patented Majiffy troll challenge to take him out of the spotlight.

He didn't hammer town Elyse because he wasn't under significant pressure at the time, but it was clear that he was trying to make the Elyse case viable.

The bottom line is that we need to be lynching Grim, and that I think we're very likely to find his buddies in the people steering us away from a grim lynch.

[qwints]

What do you mean "he didn't hammer Elyse"? He was voting Elyse already.

Earlier, when he had the opportunity to hammer Elyse, not when he and Elyse both were at L-1.

And how the fuck is the V/LA related to anything? He was already about to be lynched when he declared it.

Exactly, grim disappears during the most intense pressure, and now seems to be avoiding additional scrutiny at today's start.

Qwints, you really think Majiffy put 2/3 scum in a lynch pool just to soft distance from Grim and ML mollie with ??? support for it?

I think town Majiffy put a scummy Mollie and grim in the lynch pool with him. The main reason I though Mollie was town was because Majiffy reads mollie well, and his switch takes that away.

[qwints]

ISO my play since this day has started and

read between the fucking lines

Is there a reason you're not willing to come out and explicitly saying you're implying when we've reached this stage of the game?

[qwints]

I've tried external motivators.

Is that what they're calling it these days?

[qwints]

I don't feel like we're making any progress right now, and Majiffy's posting has really rubbed me the wrong way today:

Intent to hammer Majiffy

[qwints]

Is there a reason you're hesitating to get on the serra wagon?

[qwints]

I don't think I'll get any information out of Majiffy, but we've gotten something from Venmar for sure.

[qwints]

Serra, are you saying you think all 3 people in the pool right now are town?

[qwints]

Majiffy didn't challenge Mollie. He's on her team, so any challenge he made had to involve her.

[qwints]

Looks like at least one of Majiffy/mollie is definitely scum, this doesn't seem like the right time for them to break their mutual town reads if they were both scum.

Majiffy has dominated the game in a way that hasn't helped town. Given his influence in the game, and the skill I normally see from him, I don't think we'd be where we were if he were town motivated.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Majiffy

[qwints]

I'm not seeing the "lie."

[qwints]

That's wrong, not a lie.

[qwints]

Venmar, what are you smoking? Unvote, we're in lylo.

[qwints]

Haschel said there were scum in the lynch pool, but I don't think it's you. If I had to guess, I'd say Venmar.

[qwints]

I like how mollie's gone longer without posting than majiffy.

[qwints]

Well, we have to pick one of this group and since venmar's challenge was horrible,

VOTE: venmar

[qwints]

Completely agree that town lost this game rather than scum winning. How the hell did Majiffy get lynched?

[qwints]

Lol at the townie with the losing vote blaming someone else.

[qwints]

Grim, hope everything's well with you right now. You played fine. One thing that hurt you and a couple of other town players was our ability to force self-preservation votes. Amusingly, enomis seems to have been the only town in a town,town, scum scenario to have avoided being pushed into voting for the other town. You and elyse are where it worked best, when we somehow turned it into Grim v. Elyse.

By the way, I thought I gave the game away with this post:

Looks like at least one of Majiffy/mollie is definitely scum, this doesn't seem like the right time for them to break their mutual town reads if they were both scum.

Majiffy has dominated the game in a way that hasn't helped town. Given his influence in the game, and the skill I normally see from him, I don't think we'd be where we were if he were town motivated.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Majiffy

which Wisdom immediately called out, but also which never led to anything.

[qwints]

Major props to the two replacements who came after me and the mod for finding them.

Few interesting things about the set-up:
1) We never had a day where at least one scum member wasn't vulnerable
2) We lynched exactly one member of each team.
3) 4 of the teams were vulnerable twice, silver was vulnerable 3 times while red was vulnerable once

[qwints]

Social justice was awesome, and I enjoy seeing your crazy blend of onslaught wreak havoc.