Micro 199 Nonsensical Narnia Day 4

[borkjerfkin]

I confirmed by PM but:

/confirm

[borkjerfkin]

VOTE: AA9

I like counterwagons

[borkjerfkin]

VOTE: goodmorning

What is "interesting" about the post you quoted?

[borkjerfkin]

That for some reason they felt it relevant to place a fake joke vote on ffery, then go back to voting their original RVS vote. That doesn't strike you as a bit out of the ordinary (and particularly because AA9 hasn't posted yet)?

Not really, but I'm interested in hearing why you think so.

I guess my question is: what is the inherent motivation for switching back vs not switching back, and if you really think it matters, what does that say about the relationship between Snowflake and one of AA9/fferyllt?

[borkjerfkin]

AA9 wagon might end up funny and all but her reaction will be over the top and will leave us with so much uncertainity.

That said, I'm not good at reading her.

I really don't see a huge problem with that; something else of interest is bound to spin off from whatever transpires when she does finally show up.

That said, this is the first game I've been in where there has been so much (read: any) thought into motivation behind which player people vote in RVS and it's getting too meta/speculative to the point where it's simply not helping me figure anyone out.

I personally didn't take it seriously.

I'd rather talk about this.

Why wouldn't you take it seriously?

[borkjerfkin]

Also, for the record I'm at L-1 now as I'm a Hated Townie.

...
MC claiming this after the "L-1" vote does give me a town vibe, as scum would have to know that a hated townie has to be lynched at some point. But, if the claim is true, MC has to die at some point before lylo. Two negative utility roles in a game this size is plausible, but hated townie is a VERY negative utility role. This basically means that if it's true, then lylo could be D2 (if we mislynch today).

We either lynch MC today or tomorrow, or we hope a vig kills him tonight. I'm going to unvote to avoid any "accidents", but everyone needs to weigh in on MC's claim.

UNVOTE:

I think it's legit; I think your response to it is also pro-town.

[borkjerfkin]

If the rest of the game is non-VT (it is), I would pretty much say it's even likely.

[borkjerfkin]

read the setup

[borkjerfkin]

Ok.

MC Ride gets lynched the day before LyLO and not before.

I find AS town for their claim.

I find Kdub town for his last post.

[borkjerfkin]

My original plan was to play good enough to get nightkilled, which obviously failed. Claiming outright is cheap and not optimal.

I feel like bork is throwing around too many town reads with not enough scumreads (ie. none)

VOTE: bork

That is sometimes the way things go down. If you disagree with the reasoning I gave, I want to hear about it.

I apologize profusely if I'm doing something incredibly stupid, but I am a Town Ascetic, which the wiki has said to be a burden for town.
So a Miller, Hated Townie, and Town Ascetic?

This changes things, and I think the hated is the definite legit one out of the three.

[borkjerfkin]

I don't understand the distinction right now considering we have an odd number alive, but sure.

[borkjerfkin]

How I see it, it's the time he claimed the role.

It is not at all about the timing of it to me and very much about the role itself; I don't see scum fakeclaiming hated period (since they're now a policy lynch), nor do I see them claiming it at all if they're a hated goon (which is kind of a big 'fuck you' to a small scum team in and of itself).

It's not possible WIFOM because there is no route where we say "probably from town therefore leave him alive". Instead we say "probably from town therefore policy lynch him instead of lynching him for other reasons"

and, if anything, Borkie can be town for not leading the PL against the miller, but then again he knows that we are harder to fight over TMT (I believe) so PL'ing him over us would be alot easier so there's that...

This makes absolutely no sense to me. If I thought you were lying from the outset, I'd have wanted to lynch you, regardless of the fact that I'm town.

Even if I could spot your scumgame, which I don't know whether I can, I'm really shit at convincing others to vote with me. The playerlist as a whole would not be likely to lynch you if you were Scum, IMO.

This looks like a way to shirk responsibility for pushing a potential scumread or what are you trying to get at here?

[borkjerfkin]

And I'm asking you why you're asking VCA questions like you actually think the answer will be convincing or meaningful at a time like this ffffffff

You are correct but you are also massively overreacting considering I think fferyllt is just trying to get reasoning for BRO's vote. Seems like it'd be natural to direct this ire at him.

Ugh...

unsure how to take my other heads vote as I'm kinda town-reading Bro a bit...

I don't particularly find anything wrong with voting someone because they are third on a wagon, even if the person who is being wagoned is another scum read.

Ffery being laid back like this is seriously bothering me though

You don't? Without a flip? What if GM is scum?

Points 2 and 3 are not mutually exclusive. I found something scummy, so I vote to apply pressure there.

Shouldn't the actual issue be that point 2 is objectively wrong since that, ostensibly, wasn't the only reason you were voting Kdub? Why is that an afterthought here?

[borkjerfkin]

UNVOTE:

[borkjerfkin]

The answer is yes.

That post was reasoning that would justify a yes answer but not a no answer. You seem to be being intentionally obtuse.

No, it really looks like you're dodging the question there until the clarification.

But, since you qualified: I want to know how you got all the way from your initial reason for KDub over GM which was the [third-vote thing that you mentioned] to the point where you're retroactively explaining it with an assertion that a breadth first approach to pressure is better than a depth first one?

[borkjerfkin]

I can't follow this conversation.

AS, that was a weird segue into a Kdub vote - explain?

[borkjerfkin]

So now I'm really curious why no one seemed to notice that I was pretty laid back about the claims, or cares what I actually think about them.

I don't think lack of mention is at all equivalent to nobody caring what you think, and I think that's especially evidenced by the entire game being unanimous in not having brought up the (very specific) issue of your reaction in particular yet. Where are you trying to take this observation?

Since you brought it up: what

do

you think of the 1) viability of 3 anti-town roles at all and 2) the likelihood of truthiness to the individual claims?

[borkjerfkin]

I'll say it again: we are no longer in the "early" part of the day. Your backpedaling on your reasoning for your vote is quickly becoming secondary to the fact that you aren't forming any stronger reads.

Similar to kdub, PoE and gut. I'm starting to think that there is scum in one of GM/ffery/kdub because of the interactions after my kdub vote, with GM+either of them not being the case, although ffery/kdub would still be a possibility.

This is has become stronger.

I also think that if one of the neg-utility claims is a fakeclaim, that it's AS. Letter's claim is almost certainly legit, although I guess he could be ascetic scum. The hated claim is probably true because it would be pretty dumb to fake claim a role that gets you policy lynched as scum. Bork's relatively low activity has me a bit concerned, but I don't have meta experience on him at all so I don't know if that's normal. AA9's lurking doesn't really have me thinking she's scum because she did the same in HP mafia and ended up being town. MC I'm having a hard time calibrating a read on.

VOTE: BRO

This is giving me a sense that he's not set against lynching anybody today, and that he's throwing in basically every hypothetical scenario for just about anybody being scum without really attempting to sift through and figure out which of these is actually likely.

[borkjerfkin]

3 comes close to stretching my credulity to the breaking point.

I'm finding reasons to take all three individually at face value, so I'm a little worried that I'm missing something, but for now credulity is intact. I'm having the most difficulty articulating those reasons wrt TMT, but I can't get past having a town-sense about his posts so far.

I honestly hadn't considered an ascetic goon, but I'm still very much leaning against that, as I think it's more likely that an ascetic goon would not have advertised his role like TMT did.

[borkjerfkin]

fferyllt I am finding I know very little about your reads sans the three claimed roles for the amount you've posted.

[borkjerfkin]

Sure.

[borkjerfkin]

hey busy weekend catching up now.

[borkjerfkin]

I am town Fferlyn, don't struggle.. I need to check if you're town or not.

I am not having good feeling about bork, he is always scum when i am town. Bork, lets talk!!!

Hi AA. What do you want to talk about? We can talk about the fact that I am town if you want.

[borkjerfkin]

I'd rather lynch BRO over either leading wagon right now.

[borkjerfkin]

AS is making me feel fine right now, even barring the miller claim. #267 is substantive and well reasoned, but they left out talking about BRO and, although I understand why, we need to resolve that damn quick. I don't think I'm going to get them to support a BRO wagon today, and I don't particularly want to lynch Kdub.

I would think that Town!AA would read the game and read my slot instead of latching onto this gambler's fallacy thing. It's fine as a running joke in RVS but this is page 12 and she all but admitted she's suspicious of me for "I've been good as scum before" which she should not be allowed to use as a crutch to avoid actually reading me (or apparently anyone else).

P-edit: BRO's V/LA could throw a wrench into things.

[borkjerfkin]

are you trying to frame me bork?
I am busy till Tuesday, if you were reading you would know this.

Then maybe you should've just said that instead of throwing around suspicion at me based on NOTHING RELATED TO THIS GAME.

[borkjerfkin]

Rach hasn't posted here in like over a week.

We should not be lynching Kdub today re: his claim. GM why do you not want a BRO lynch? Don't think I've seen you call him town.

[borkjerfkin]

sit tight bork, i ll get you today. if you're scum this time..you can't run from me.

I'm not scum.

Which if you were actually reading you would know.

[borkjerfkin]

What do you mean because of his claim? I'm not in favour of leaving him alive another day just so

when he can't actually prove it we lynch him then

.

Well he claimed something very specific and why are you assuming the underlined is an eventuality?

[borkjerfkin]

In the sense that "I can do a certain thing and you should let me do that thing".

[borkjerfkin]

VOTE: MC Ride

Policy lynch: I'm worried about a no lynch at this point, we've obviously got some positive utility roles; let's let them do what they do.

This is what we are doing.

[borkjerfkin]

^Major problems with this post. You're worried about a no lynch, so you unvote someone you suspect from L-2 to put a different player at L-3? And it's not even someone you think is scum, but just a "policy lynch"?

Um, considering the role claim from him, it's pretty fucking obvious why I did this.

[borkjerfkin]

Because I'm going to get nigh guaranteed support for MC Ride, where fferyllt just said in the post prior she was having second thoughts about BRO.

[borkjerfkin]

Yeah the extension changes the game.

UNVOTE:

re: Goodmorning: The only issue I have with goodmorning is the sudden surety of the Kdub scumread to the point where she won't even entertain the fact that he might be town who might be able to demonstrate <something>. Otherwise I think she's been one of the more movey-shaky players.

[borkjerfkin]

goddammit.

[borkjerfkin]

Yeah.

Explain your #398.

[borkjerfkin]

In regards to his response to AS' vote where they give no reasoning? That wouldn't frustrate you?

[borkjerfkin]

I have to go to St. Louis in like 4 hours; I won't be around for deadline so we really, really need to work this out now.

[borkjerfkin]

I didn't scroll up the page enough. Sec.

[borkjerfkin]

It looks like they're mostly up in arms about the "I have a confirmable ability and you should wait to lynch me" (#381), I think #380 is a pretty useless generalization.

Half of me wants to tell him to full claim now so we can go into this decision with more information and half of me wants to say let's fucking table this lynch until tomorrow.

Otherwise we need to lynch MC Ride.

[borkjerfkin]

AA is a total fucking crapshoot to me.

AA might be scum but I seriously have no idea out of the obvious "why be a huge lurksack if you're town" point, whereas I think MC ride is probably town but we get rid of the loss on D2 problem.

p-edit, then I'll put the question to both you and Mara: do you think Kdub should claim or not?

[borkjerfkin]

I thought this would be significantly more positive utility for you to be so dodgy about claiming what it is.

VOTE: Kdub

[borkjerfkin]

AA we are gonna dance today. No more lurking.

(this seems like GIF not Mara)

[borkjerfkin]

so basically town stalled in this game. Huh!!!!

What does this mean?

[borkjerfkin]

Am I Mara or am I not Mara?
But the important thing is, that you don't deserve to say stuff like #486 when you yourself haven't accomplished anything.

And...? This lacks any real concern about motivation behind it.

what is that you want to know?

I just don't understand at all what the sentence means or how to interpret it.

Anyway AA who is scum?

[borkjerfkin]

That is not what I expected, considering your #493. Explain.

[borkjerfkin]

Wait, my 493 says exactly the same thing. Snowflakes voted me becuz her reason is becuz I said that this town "Stalled" not becuz they have a scummy case on me. what you're expecting me to explain there?

You wrote that they were a townread. Did you mean to say scumread?

[borkjerfkin]

Anyone have a compelling reason not to be lynching MC today?

AA be less overdefensive and start doing something worth a damn.

[borkjerfkin]

You're a hated supersaint?

That actually changes shit a lot I think. I think we need to either

1) Leave you alive today
or
2) Have someone that we agree upon looks scummy hammer you (L-1 you)

2) is high risk high reward but also covers the bases that this is a scum ploy. I don't think it is, but this is pretty much the only way out of a scum fakeclaim of hated.

[borkjerfkin]

That being said, I prefer MC over Saint

I think, we should run MC up and have TMNT hammer

Why not have BRO hammer MC if you think 1 is scum?

[borkjerfkin]

In fact this is making me wary of a AS/BRO team.

[borkjerfkin]

So he's not hated in LyLO? Cause I interpreted "I can't be quicklynched in LyLO" as "if scum tries to quicklynch me it would out the scumteam" which would make everything AS is saying right now correct (and my math wrong as they've pointed out.)

[borkjerfkin]

Why would he fucking say that then? It does us no good to know that because it's scum who is going to try to do that and now they're not going to.

[borkjerfkin]

What does that mean? I am detecting snark.

[borkjerfkin]

The fuck?

How do you have an innocent on a claimed miller?
For that matter why would you even investigate a claimed miller?

[borkjerfkin]

Are you saying if they are either scum or faked their miller claim??

Not mutually exclusive, but no scum would fakeclaim miller and then turn up innocent.

So basically what I'm saying is that the only way AS is scum is if AS is a team with AA and this can be treated like a normal innocent result from a non-confirmed cop.

[borkjerfkin]

Did GM Claim?

I'm Puddleglum, an even night tracker and I haven't done anything yet.

p-edit: What is the significance of the peter/lucy thing?

[borkjerfkin]

Also what role are you actually claiming? Are you an innocent child or something else?

[borkjerfkin]

rad

[borkjerfkin]

I didnt list any cause i was v/la when the game went up and know nothing about the source material.

[borkjerfkin]

i already claimed, i am peter, i confirmed AS is town with my power that makes me confirmed town

This does not confirm AA as town, as scum can still fakeclaim an innocent on town. All it confirms is that she didn't read the AS miller claim, which is null. What it did confirm was that AS could not be scum unless AA was also scum, but that point is now moot.

[borkjerfkin]

so you're saying, me investigating with no knowledge of miller claim is a null tell????

Yes; cause either you're a cop who didn't see the claim and investigated AS, or you're scum who didn't see the claim and faked it on AS.

[borkjerfkin]

It's kinda bugging me that this isn't self-evident to you.

[borkjerfkin]

It depends if town you want to believe me or not or scum you trying to flip my honesty bork. You know what i am.

it should[n't] be so hard for you to see town me if you're town.

The underlined is what I expect from town you, yeah, but I'm not ignoring reading you just cause you say you're confirmed -- you're not.

[borkjerfkin]

VC Please.

I need to reevaluate a few slots in the meantime.

[borkjerfkin]

*My other head is thinking Bork is scum

Your other head done fucked up.

We should lynch in these 3. Please.

That is a convenient piggyback off of BRO's reads that just happen to not include you as scum especially after pretty much offering no reads yourself.

Either letters is town or Rach trolled me hard. Scum should be White Witch and Aslan, as the three I listed were White Witch, Aslan, and Caspian X (of which I got none, obviously). Given that two of those aren't listed here. This also implies that scum got safeclaims.

Yeah UPicks are designed so that you're generally not able to make these kinds of inferences.

I want letters hammering MC or we're lynching letters straight up.

[borkjerfkin]

bork, care to explain how it benefits scum-AA9 to clear a townie? Especially one not claiming any sort of active PR?

1) that's not quite what she did, considering there isn't just one scum left. In the case where scum!AA flips first, it becomes a matter of WIFOM on whether AA is 'clearing' a buddy or a true townie
2) in the case where her clear flips first, she gets towncred from it.
3) as for the 'not claiming any sort of active PR': AA all but admitted she had no idea what AS had claimed anyway.

Failing ALL of that, I think in all likelihood your slot is town because AA is playing like town and she's not flailing like crazy when suspected (but instead getting hyperaggressive when suspected which I can give you about a million games of meta on that happening, often directed at me), and the fact that I think a fakeclaim would have actually looked at what AS had claimed before claiming an inno on them, but AA deliberately asked me why I thought she wasn't confirmed and that is why: fakeclaiming cops clear town all the time because it will never outright get them lynched for lying.

[borkjerfkin]

goddammit

[borkjerfkin]

I tracked MC Ride and he didn't visit.

I was just kinda hoping against hope that I'd be dead today.

[borkjerfkin]

Who is my much better result

[borkjerfkin]

BRO.

I'd either have picked MC or BRO - explain how BRO is somehow more telling? I went toward MC because of the goofiness with "I miiiight be a supersaint I guess I'll just turn it off?" stuff that happened at the end of the day which muddied the hated townie claim - supersaint was the only viable way out of getting lynched as fakeclaiming hated townie.

And, of course, I couldn't risk tracking you, although I DID consider it just to verify ascetic, then realized that wouldn't tell me pretty much anything conclusively other than that.

@Penguin - huge lean on TMT, especially after this most recent conversation. BRO looks like he's trying to solve a puzzle whereas TMT is just driving by with superficial attacks on me like he's saving me for tomorrow.

The only thing giving me pause on BRO is his weaker claim comparatively to TMT - D1 Vengeful is oddly specific especially when compared to all the other relatively normal roles that have flipped. Still - Ascetic

goon

is just the type of thing I'd give scum to counterbalance having a cop and tracker in the game.

VOTE: TMT

@BRO - explain how in the christ are you PoEing me over TMT?

[borkjerfkin]

So GM's smart enough to blend in where bork isn't? Scum-bork has skills; I'm having a hard time seeing him do this.

As much as I like the fact that you're reading me correctly, I want to know exactly what you're talking about here.

I hate gm's interactions with both bork and letters.

MC, why do you think p_a is scum? I'm finding it very unlikely given the way that AA9 returned an innocent result after the miller claim, when scum would presumably have no way of knowing that....

Wait...

FUCK MY PARANOIA. PA IF YOU'RE SCUM I KNOW WHAT ROLE YOU ARE AND YOU'VE HAD IT BEFORE GOD DAMMIT.

I hate role cops.

Point to any interaction between GM and me that looks like scum-scum; I'll wait.

Oh, and that caps line looks forced as hell - everyone should remember that it was AA and not penguin when that slot investigated AS, but there's the seam there where it makes sense for that slot to be scum because

penguin

has done this sort of thing before. It just looks like a cheap way to widen the lynch pool when up against the wall.

I really really do not think penguin is scum - I am about 90% sure that scum lies between TMT and BRO.

[borkjerfkin]

1) There are almost no interactions between you and GM. That's what I don't lik.

2) You reached like fuck there. I never said that PA has pulled off a gambit like I've postulated before, just that it's a role that she's had before (she was mafia rolecop in Philosopher's Stone mafia). And I'd hardly call myself "up against the wall" right now. I'm fairly sure you can read better than that

1) I don't agree - she responded pretty well to my push on D1 and I left her alone a bit on D2 as I thought she was probtown.

2) Where does the paranoia come from then if you've not seen this sort of thing from her?

Whichever of you is scum IS up against the wall right now; you're up against a wall in the hypothetical case that it is you, and there is concrete scum motivation to keep the penguin lynch in your back pocket when you need to MLs to win.

bork, I'm saying that if one saw town with a bunch of X-shot roles, why wouldn't one claim a power as X-shot as well if one was scum faking?

Meh, there are a number of reasons I don't agree with this: 1) setups generally have no precedent for containing only 1-shot roles 2) general WIFOM 3) fakeclaims are generally available to scum (I doubt GM pulled her claim out of her ass). I am what I said I am.

As stated before, I have no list and told Rach to pick for me.

Letters is absolutely town. We do not lynch Letters.

Seriously, show me

[borkjerfkin]

Notice how my vote is still on you, though

Yes I've noticed that you're contributing to a scum win

[borkjerfkin]

As stated before, I have no list and told Rach to pick for me.

As stated before, I have no list and told Rach to pick for me.

As stated before, I have no list and told Rach to pick for me.

As stated before, I have no list and told Rach to pick for me.

As stated before, I have no list and told Rach to pick for me.

As stated before, I have no list and told Rach to pick for me.

As stated before, I have no list and told Rach to pick for me.

[borkjerfkin]

VOTE: bro

[borkjerfkin]

my actions are somewhat dependent on what penguin reports

[borkjerfkin]

Fuck. I wish you'd have been odd night.

VOTE: tmt

[borkjerfkin]

Because you wanted an investigation or to make even-night tracker more plausible?

It was a "I hope you were making a shrewd move in 749 to draw a vote and actually

were

odd-night" which would've mutually confirmed us to each other, but alas.

What do you need from me?

[borkjerfkin]

A mafia tracker is also pretty fucking worthless in a game this small, but I'd say that as scum too.

I'm not scum though.

[borkjerfkin]

I'm scum. A godfather; I really did hope you were odd night.

I don't really feel good about lurking this one out, but i think no one really got into this one.

[borkjerfkin]

I was doing my best to keep AA9 suspicious of me especially considering our history and then she had to go investigate the claimed miller

[borkjerfkin]

http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/GUrBKCRgfnXjn