Xenogears Mafia (Game Over)

[mastin2]

Gah, it figures. How many times has this happened to me? Over the weekend, things start? Silly bork; he should have learned his lesson last time! To say the least, that puts me a bit behind this game. Let's try not to get another 10 pages while I'm catching up, 'kay? Now with that said, it'll be a while--I have other things to attend to. So, that'll be it for now. Time for me to get to work. (Oh, gods. We're in for a very long game. No way to have me procrastinate

this

game! )

[mastin2]

Arg. I generally hate being scum, and love being town, but for certain games...for certain games...I really,

really

hate

being town. When I'm town and I can lock onto something easily, BAM! Instant fun. When I'm town and just kinda feeling like a spectator, not a player...not so much. This game would have been so, SO much more fun as scum, as I'd be able to competently fake having reads, but nope! Stupid ol' town me is left here with almost nothing. :/

I DO have some townreads, and I DO have some

minor

scumreads, but nothing NEARLY as strong as it should be. >_<

Sorry that I suck.

Vote: zMuffinMan

.
My best guess at scum at this point. Nick's another candidate (albeit only just; I waffled for quite a while before settling on that), but that's about it as far as definitive scumreads go. Can't decide on TD or nhammen, both who were in my sights but who I can't lock down, but other than that, yeah, just random townreads.

[mastin2]

What's the basis for your scum reads?

Not much? I haven't liked zMuffinMan's posts, and nick's posts were largely null, with some potentially-town and some potentially-scum, but nick's later posts progressively tipped him towards being scum. If I had more than that, I'd have said so. But really, that's it. Which is why I suck. I should have more. I'm feeling, like, DoRC-level useless this game, whereas I

should

be doing Underground Mafia-level usefulness.

To put it simply: this is the kind of game where I'll be dead (via nightkill, mind you) within a few nights, without leaving anything useful behind. Why? Because it'll take me too long to get in my element, to find my stride, to lock into the scumminess and the scumteam. Any hope I have of doing so will almost certainly be in a later game phase, by which time the scum will have eliminated me. (Why? Because, looking at the playerlist, almost all the players here know me, either by experience or reputation. They all expect me to be competent. And they all know that even when I'm

not

being competent, all it'd take is a single post, a single night phase, a single trigger which can be anything, to turn me from being utterly-useless to deadly-effective. Because that's Mastin. Someone who can see things others miss.)

Which, again, is why I owe the town an apology. (And for that matter, an apology to any scum members expecting me to be more of a threat than I currently am. ) Because I'm

not

living up to what I should be, and I feel horrible for it.

I DO have some townreads >_<

Who?

Not nearly as many as I'd prefer. Chronologically?

A very minor one on FTL. Sound of Silence is a strong townread. Venmar equally-strong to SoS townread. I also have Rach as a slight townread, though admittedly I don't know her play very well. I could tell even before he revealed himself that notscience was town, because he was townposting like crazy. I initially feared that BeautyAndBeast might be scum, but their later posting reversed this into a solid townread. I also think this is town-Mac, not scum-Mac. Broseidon's tripping my gut as scum for some odd reason, but he's solidly town via his words.

And...that's it. (Left out the chronology of the scumreads, of course.) That's seriously the sum of my reads at this point, pathetic as that is.

While we wait, ffery, mastin meta, always this passive?

Passive Mastin is sucky Mastin, so no. As a general hint, passive Mastin is not alignment-indicative, though, because scum-Mastin is just as likely to have a bad game as town-Mastin. But for what it's worth, I'm town-Mastin this game, albeit town-Mastin at his absolute lowest. :/

If mastin is town, this is the first game i've seen him read me incorrectly from my initial posting. but I don't really think he's town atm so that doesn't particularly matter to me.

Calling it as I see it. If you're town, you can trust me to be town. You can't trust me to be reliable-town at the moment, because I'm currently not in my element and am trying to find it. So you can't exactly count on me being extremely useful, much to my chagrin. But you can trust me to be town. (Just really, really bad town.)

Mastin's being passive, but he's being Town passive. The difference? He's not keeping his options open and is admitting he's clueless rather than hedging his bets on this or that wagon.

Appreciate the opinion, but it's not exactly accurate. It's not true, but my posts very easily

could

be read as me keeping my options open, and cluelessness is easily faked. Yeah, still town, and probably in no danger of being lynched, ever, but still not exactly the beacon of towniness I

should

be, right now.

Vote: nickthename

.
Eh. MuffinMan read is in doubt, nick read is strengthening.

Quick question to those who know Andrius. This his scumgame? It looks like a scumgame, but I don't know his towngame or scumgame, but it really looks like a scumgame.

[mastin2]

NICK ISO:

Thinking at this point TD is town, but not sure of it.

nhammen/Malakittens may be scum, but I'm having a hard time telling for sure.

Rach town and Mac town both seem to be reinforced. FTL may be a bit stronger town, too. B&B definitely town, though. Thezmon/Pappa slot looks town, too.

(SUPER SECRET READ REDACTED. You'll have to wait until it pans out or I die and release my personal QT to the dead QT to find out what it is. Whichever comes first.)

[mastin2]

AJ Iso:

His posts look town, so he's probably scum. But seriously. Content looks town. Can't tell if he is town, but his content's enough where I'm calling him town.

[mastin2]

I'm skipping Andrius, because I'm waiting on others who know him better. He looks like scum to me, but heck if I know anything about him.
Skipping B&B. Partially because they're already a townread (and an iso of them isn't likely going to decrease said townread, with the only realistic possibility being an increase), partially because I don't like reading that big of an iso. That said,

{FTL, Malakittens, nickthename}
{Ghost, Mac, NS, Silence, Tiphane, Trust, Venmar, Thezmon, Nacho, Muffin}
{AJ, Andi, BRO, Desp, Mastin, Rach, Skull}

I agree on MalaK and nick (obv) being scumreads, and pretty much every single townread except Trust (null currently; working on it) and Muffin (also null at this point, and also working on it), with a slight chance of a third. (But probs-not.)

I can advise for ya to move AJ into town (albeit admittedly fairly weakly so; I don't know AJ as well as some of these others do) and similarly for Rach (my personal read is fairly-decently-town, but again, haven't really played with her much to know for sure).

I'm thinking at this point that BROseidon might be scum, from his iso. "Why? His words look so town!" Words, yes. A good scum player can create good words. Actions, on the other hand? Actions, I think make him scum. Macscumread, nicktownread, fakeish-looking reaction to IC, SoS scumread, general reads not seeming all too original (this may just be me, though), overall posting not screaming town even though the words themselves look town. Not much, but worrisome. (Basically: any individual sentence may look town, but their sum is less than their parts.)

[mastin2]

Desperado's actually quite worrying me. I'm kinda used to Desp being super-active as town and having strong reads on multiple players and a very strong will. Instead, I get a singular post which is spoilered and rather weak. It's mostly quotes (info) and barely laden with the analysis I'd expect. I'll obviously wait for more from him, but right now, he's a nullish-scumread of mine. :/

FtL's iso is annoyingly hard to read, but the content present does make them a townread.

Ghostlin's iso might move Muffin into town, pending more work. Ghostlin's posts have been solid, and well-reasoned, and very solid overall, and I'm putting a lot of trust into him as a result. (A lot moreso than he'll have in me. At least, until I get into my element. If I get into my element before getting nightkilled,

everyone

will have more trust in me. )

[mastin2]

(Obviously, I was writing 710 before Desp made additional posts. )

I'd honestly be surprised if you could come up with two town motivated things from Rach's ISO. She's scum.

Challenge accepted.

Spoiler: Rachtown

No fair you guys n gals I did not get to RVS

Technically should be null, but I read this comment as being town. 'Specially with the followthrough near the end of the post.

Want to take a look at the interplay tween B n B and SoS
I do realize of course that the Mollie head and the fery head are long time friends from another site, but want to be sure it is not being used as a cover for buddying.

Analysis on B&B and SoS. You could argue "trying to create paranoia about their interactions", but this looks a lot more like what I'm doing right now. Seeing stuff which might be important and trying to filter it.

peeps with votes on Venmar need to like remove them for a bit, the claim will sort itself out soon enough.

You can say that this is leaving her options open, but I read it as having a Venmar townread.

All from her first post.

Besides his reaction to Venmar's claim is there even a case on TD? Something other than oh he was scum last time please.

You can argue (similarly to Venmar) that she's defending easy mislynches for cheap towncred, but again, I say that this reads as legitimate scumhunting. Especially with the followthrough.

Could you explain your case on him, besides the whole thing with Venmar?

Cause though I can see how that would look scummy, the fact we have a wagon build up this fast this early before everyone has even posted kinda sets up my scumdar a tad.

Then there's this.

well this game will be.... interesting (in the sense of the old Chinese curse May your life be interesting that is).....

Whether TD is scum or town I am not sure on, but I am leaning town cause that wagon hell Nacho has not even posted yet..... And a few others as well. 8 of 11 votes? Cmon guys n gals we need to examine those on his wagon duh.

No need to get worried Mollie just I am not 100% sold that both your slot and hers are town. Given time will be better at sorting it out. And part of that would be finding out if its just hey we know each other or that you are playing buddy buddy knowing peeps would think it too blatant to be buddying. As Jiffy and Syr post that will help too.

As a start, she actually

defines

what she means by "interesting"! (The word interesting being left undefined being a minor scumtell.) Again she follows through on the TD situation, and then goes stream of consciousness in her posting in a very natural way that looks like it shows a town thought. Plus, it gives followthrough on the B&B/SoS thing she had in her first post.

Is she solidly town? No. Especially not under specific circumstances. Is she decently town? Yes. A bad lynch for today.

[mastin2]

Mac iso:
Some specific posts may be a bit concerning, but overall, there's strong town posting present and I really don't think this is scuMac.

Malakittens iso:
She's not giving me warm fuzzy feelings. At all. This doesn't seem like the town-her that I've come to expect, like, at all. So again, bit of a scumread.

She replaced nhammen, who is next on my iso list. There's not much to really see, there. I can't really have anything definitive, other than a bit of a gut scumread with his overall approach.

Skull iso is basically empty, so nothing there at all. At this point with me not really having any really strong townreads, might be a scumread just by virtue of being a null-read.

[mastin2]

That's a solid townRach case, if you take all of the points individually.

Which is

exactly

what

you asked me to do

. You asked for specific town-motivated things; I gave specific town-motivated things.

If you want the overall stance, I still have her as town, in a similar manner to how I'm town. (Granted, this is something specific to me, so if for some idiotic reason you're not townreading me, then I can see why you wouldn't be townreading her. ) Her posts just have that feeling to them. That she's not exactly in the strongest position, but that she's trying to figure things out regardless. Again, I don't have much meta on her, so I don't know if it's possible she can fake it, but I don't see the scum. I see town, working things out weakly but still working things out.

[mastin2]

I feel like most of the reasons for Rach-Town by Mastin in #715 are forced and untrue, I don't think he actually believes in most of those especially since he says things like " you could argue " or " technically ".

Also worth noting: I'm saying "you could argue" and "technically"

for things about her being null or scum

. When it comes to my

actual

not-technically and not-you-could-arguely stance, that's where you see me saying she's town.

[mastin2]

Which posts? You flatly said all of my reads were weak, can you talk about the mac read more specifically and how it fits into your read?

168 is a bit concerning, as is 224. 245 isn't as bad and can also be town, but it can also be along a similar vein. 261 also makes me a bit nervous, but again can be scumhunting.

That's it. The rest I see as town. Those few posts to give doubt aren't enough to overcome the overall picture. My memory of a scuMac might not be as good as with others, but this. just. doesn't. feel. like. what I remember. to be. scuMac. It feels like his town self. Combined with the town posting, and I really don't get the scumread on him.

[mastin2]

I'm basically skipping Sound of Silence for reasons similar to Beauty & Beast; I see them as being reasonably town, and with a reread not going to change that.

I don't really have many games with Thez, so it's definitely something I need to check up on to make sure this isn't scum-Thez, but I'm actually quite liking thezmon221's posts thusfar, so he's a decent townread of mine, too. For the most part, logic seems good, stances seem reasonable.

Skipping TD, who I'm just writing off as town for the time being. Will be worth revisiting later, but for now, seems town enough.

I'm reading Trust Fund's iso, and I can't lock down on it one way or the other. Gun to my head, I'd guess town, but I really really have them as nullish. I'm trying. I'm reading their iso and rereading it, but I can't tell.

Last but not least, zMuffinMan. I can still see him as scum. "can see". Not do see. Quite the opposite, I'm thinking I was wrong, and that he was actually far more town than I realized. The very same posts I was suspicious of (perhaps because I thought they might be setting up a tVt fight) now just look like legitimate scumhunting to me.

I'm a bit concerned about his stances, such as nicktown, Rachscum, maScum2, TD as scum, and such, but I quite like his overall feeling right now. Enough for him to be reversed into a townread, albeit not a strong one.


Anyway, that's about it for my isos for now. I'll iso myself and compile some reads out of this tomorrow; I don't think I have the analysis left in me to finish it today.

[mastin2]

My memory of a scuMac might not be as good as with others, but this. just. doesn't. feel. like. what I remember. to be. scuMac. It feels like his town self.

What do you remember scuMac to be? Do you disagree with the meta I provided?

Not this? And Maybe? I'll admit it, Mac's not a player I find easy to remember in my games, because Mac typically isn't someone I have much focus on. (Akin to Zdenek, in that he's someone I play with a lot, but is not very memorable. I remember playing with Mac and the generalities, but not the specifics.) But again. I just don't think this is scum-Mac. If you absolutely must, call it gut. (It aint gut. ) I'll do my homework later to determine for surez, but I just. don't. see. a. scuMac.

[mastin2]

Hi guys, sorry for the delay. Got a reminder last night that I have a wedding to attend today.

...Well, sorta. I couldn't actually attend it (even though I really, REALLY wanted to*), but I'll be watching a livestream of the wedding (with luck, anyway), and thus, not online here. (A one-day declaration of V/LA, you could say.) I'll see what I can do today. (Seven pages back, on 30.) And as a general warning--it's quite obvious I've got pretty much zero confidence and hate my play because of it. From here-on out, I'm just going to flat-out lie about my confidence. Being wrong but being 'confident' (but not really) about it, at this point, would be better than maybe-eventually-being-right while in the meantime sucking hardcore. I can't change the (lack of) confidence in my reads. I can change how I am perceived, though. It'll be the Mastin you are more familiar with, even though it's a lie. Who knows, that change of appearance might actually be the spark I need.

*The people being married are two online friends of mine from another site. Crazy lovers.

[mastin2]

I maintain that this does not appear to be the town-Malakittens I am used to. Something about her this game just seems...

different

from her town-self. I can't explain it. But she

feels

like scum.

mastin I am loving where your head is at cos you are saying what I am thinking.

Well, then, get Majiffy to knock me out of his scum pile. I'm town. Seriously, I am. I know I haven't been putting on a strong showing. But I swear it. You can trust me to be town this game.

I want to work with you and him. I have Malakittens as scum, and obviously nickthename as scum, both in Majiffy's scum-pile, but I'm going to have difficulty working with you and him if he's calling me scum.

Among them being that I don't see the FtL scumread, and want more talking from you two on him.

I really like your townreads in 907, with the exception of Bro and maaaaaybe Trust Fund. (Who is stuck on null, but if you can, I'd love for you to talk me into them being town.) I also love the nick-scumread, and like your Andrius read as well. So work with me.

[5] Faster Than Light (thezmon221,

Malakittens

, Skullduggery, TiphaineDeath,

nickthename

)

Bad wagon is bad and incredibly scumdriven.

[4] RachMarie (zMuffinMan, Andrius, Desperado, Faster Than Light)

Replacement wagon is bad and the best names on there are FtL (a minor townread) and MuffinMan (also minor townread), which is

generally a

very bad sign

.

[3] nickthename (Aj The Epic, mastin2, notscience)

Epic wagon is epic. Made up of a player who everyone (be it via play or meta) is calling town and with TWO conftown backing it.
The Malakittens wagon is a decent alternative, though.

What specifically concerns you about these reads?

In short? Because nick's scum, Rach's town, I'm conftown, and TD is a minor townread of mine at the moment. I did say "a bit", not "seriously". It's a

potential

sign of "being-scum-saying-good-things-but-pushing-a-scum-agenda", but I don't think it actually

is

being-scum.

There is one specific scenario I can see Rach being scum in, but only one, and not one I'd care to share at this time. If that scenario turned out not to be true, then Rach would be town.

Also, skipped over this but noticed it when mollie posted:

It worries me that he doesn't really do any analysis on the TD wagon, which seems like something someone who considers themself to be as analytical as Mastin seems to think he is would do.

I actually did, but I didn't get much from it. The analysis is in the quicktopic I created for this game.

(See. This is me lying. This is me showing a bit more confidence, even though I'm actually having less and less confidence. I told you it'd be closer to the me you're used to, despite it being a lie. )

[mastin2]

(Actually, I think I mighta discovered part of the problem. The normal Mastin that most people have been playing with the last two or three years or so

is

a bit of a lie, since whenever I come to MS.net, I begin to wear a bit of a mask. A while back*, I resolved that I'd be trying to slowly disintegrate the mask, and show more of my natural self. Problem is, the natural me is a lot less confident. I guess this game will serve as a testing ground of sorts, then, as I balance the two. Letting more of my natural self in, but

also

becoming the mask, in that I take the better elements of the mask and incorporate them into my real self.)

*Mostly on a different site, when debating the concept of multiple personalities and a resulting PM conversation I had with someone on there about my MS.net self, meaning that the conversation there had an influence here.

[mastin2]

Mastin you aren't confirmed town, shut up.

Except I am, and rather blatantly so.

Normally, I don't like to have the ego to say that a wagon on me is scumdriven. Least of all in a game where there are some justified reasons not to like my play. (Because

I

didn't like my play, it's understandable others wouldn't. ) But, well...almost all the names having me as a strong scumread are by no coincidence my own scumreads. And I have to admit, part of the reason that they're scumreads (worth noting, though, that

it's a very, VERY small part

making up less than 5% of my total read on them!) is their suspicion on me when it's blatantly obvious that I'm town. (Yes, admittedly, abnormal-for-Mastin in my playstyle this game, and again, that's something I have to apologize for. But still town, and about as unsubtly town as can be.)

how do you feel about skull

Dead null. Really, there's not much there. If there were more posts from Skull, I'd have a better idea of what to read Skull as, but there's virtually zero posts. Okay, I lied; not dead null. That "dead null" posting pattern in this game makes skull default to a minor scumread via being AT null.

Mastin, could you go into a little more detail on your Andrius read? I think it might help me sort both of you.

Similar in nature to my read on Malakittens, albeit less solid because it's not as backed by meta. I wrote the bit about Andy being a scumread before his megawall, because I didn't like his pre-wall posts at all. The wall itself (while being humorous) also was incredibly scummy to me, solidifying the read, but not being a basis of the read.

The megawall opens up with a vote on nick; this is a classic scumbuddy-RVS move of voting-scumbuddy-for-the-heck-of-it and I KNOW that Andrius comes from a time period where scum do that. Said RVS-vote is for a bad reason, too; not knowing the player seems really forced. In fact, the entire tone of the post is really, REALLY forced. The vote on your slot, SoS, for instance. Then there's the faked reaction to notscience's reveal; that rant is about as faked as fakerage gets. Not to mention, entirely unnecessary, as others had pointed out the sub-optimal nature of the play AND in addition to that it is unnecessary to do because notscience is the type of player who ranting on will only encourage him to do it again.

The bit about TD looks bad. Trying to get hydras to sign their posts, which I've found in my experience to be a bit of a scumtell unless the player in question has enough meta history with the hydra in question to justify it. (You know the type. A town player wanting to analyze their buddy who they have a perfect or near-perfect ability to meta-read, but said buddy is in a hydra where the heads post similarly.

Then

and ONLY then is it important to know or care who's posting. Andy most certainly was not this.)

So you're lying that you're confident while pushing wagons?

I'm lying about specific reads being as strong as they are, but the reads I'm lying about being strong are mostly townreads. My scumreads (few as they are)

are

fairly strong--Malakittens, you, and Andrius being among them. (The only scumread I might be exaggerating as part of the lie-of-confidence is Broseidon.) Thus, there is no lie about me being confident in you being scum;

that

read is probably the strongest real read I'll be getting this game.

Mastin's looking really scummy about this time, though...

Drop it, thez. You're one of the townreads I'm faking confidence in. I am town. I'm about as town as I can possibly be in a game. Not at my strongest scumhunting-wise (working on it), sure, yes, but town all the same. If you're town like I'm thinking, then you can trust me to be town this game.

[mastin2]

in pikman you repeatedly called me stupid, so what has changed that you suddenly have decided that I am a decent enough player that you want to work with?

You not being stupid?

I mean, if you called me scum this game, I might start calling you stupid again because you'd BE stupid. But seriously. Even in pinkmin, you turned your play around from derpmollie into deadlymollie and more-than-earned my respect as a player, even if you ultimately lost. And this game, you're doing even better play-wise than you were in pinkmin. You've earned my respect as a player I value and appreciate, as has Majiffy. I consider the hydra between you two to be one of the best slots in the game. So yes, I want to work with you.

[mastin2]

Mastin why do you keep reaching out to people saying "you can trust me to be town this game"

Because I AM town. For the most part, the people I'm reaching out to are town players who I need to work with, yet have quite-justified reasons to be doubtful of me this game. (Because my play thusfar has not been normal Mastin.) I need to address their concerns so that they are willing to work with me and scumhunt ACTUAL scum. (Which I am not. Seriously, there's never going to be a game where I am more town than in this game.)

[mastin2]

So. Time to compile my reads. (Semi-lies are involved, mind you, in that I am vastly exaggerating the strengths of some specific reads. In particular, there's one scenario I'm rather concerned about.)

TOWN

:

notscience
BeautyAndTheBeast
Ghostlin
Sound of Silence
Aj The Epic
thezmon221
Faster Than Light
zMuffinMan
Mac
RachMarie
TiphaineDeath

SCUM

:

nickthename
Malakittens
Andrius
Desperado
BROseidon
Skullduggery

NULL

:

Trust Fund


...Oops. That's too many scum. If memory serves, bork mentioned five scum being in the game, and I have six (plus super-sekrit mebbe-scumz-reads in a specific scenario).

*ahem*

Let's re-order that list, then, shall we?

TOWN

:

notscience
BeautyAndTheBeast
Ghostlin
Sound of Silence
Aj The Epic
Faster Than Light
zMuffinMan
Mac
thezmon221
RachMarie
TiphaineDeath
Trust Fund

SCUM

:

nickthename
Malakittens
Desperado
Andrius

NULL

:

BROseidon
Skullduggery



And reasonings. notscience goes without saying. BeautyAndTheBeast is that strong because while I initially wasn't seeing their town-selves, it didn't take much reading before it began to show, and when it showed, it showed!
Ghostlin's been one of the strongest, most logical, and reasonable players this game. He's about as town as can be.
Sound of Silence is a strong townread, because I've pretty much liked everything they've said and most of their pushes.
Aj the Epic is a strong townread, because his content has been good and MULTIPLE players have backed him up as this being his town-meta.

Faster Than Light and zMuffinMan are fairly interchangeable as far as strength goes. I can see zMuffinMan being scum because his reads are even worse than mine are (ha! ), but "can see" != "do see"; I see him rather solidly as town.

FTL looks like town to me, and I've pretty much liked most of their posts. There may be a few which're concerning, but I really, REALLY don't see why people are wagoning them. I've had no issues with the content the slot has provided, and yes, they ARE providing plenty of it if you care to read.

Mac is a townread because most of my scumreads are pushing for his mislynch. No, but seriously; Mac's town because Mac's posting has been town and I have a VERY strong Gut townread on Mac to go along with it. The only reason he's not higher up is because this is admittedly not backed up by meta and I have yet to research that.

Thus ends the real townreads, and enters the pseudo-town-I'm-faking-it-for-your-benefit townreads.

thezmon221 is a player I need to refresh my memory of his scumgame on. His posts have seemed town enough, and I had no problem with Nachopappa (as little as he gave), but I still need to be careful. I have my eye on thez, but am considering thez town for now.

RachMarie is a decent townread of mine, and actually deserves to be higher up on the list. However, a specific scenario I am thinking about is keeping her from being town, and bumps her below the zany demon.

TD is a player whose content looks incredibly town, but whose reads are rather concerningly bad. I've waffled on TD a lot more than I'd care to admit, though I'm calling him town for now. Still watching to make sure, though.

Trust Fund is mainly here because players I trust (haha ) are calling them town, combined with the fact that I only have so much room on my scumlist. Combined with my gun-to-the-head saying they'd be town, it's enough for me to believe them to be town.


Let's cover the nulls first.
BROseidon is someone who is actually far more likely to be scum in my super-sekrit theory, but other than that, someone I can't make my mind up about.

Skullduggery is someone I'm considering bumping to town, rather than scum. (Sorry, mollie.) For similar reasons to Trust Fund, because there's not enough room on my scumlist. (And Skull has no ties to my super-sekrit theory, which the others do.)

I've explained my scumreads on nick and Mala.

On Andy, I'm actually close to putting him at null. I can see him as scum, and he's far more likely scum in the super-sekrit scenario, but I can't tell for sure.

On Desperado, well, consider him almost-interchangeable with Andrius. Standing alone, he's a stronger scumread, though the super-sekrit theory being true would make him a weaker scumread than Andy. He's also close to null because I'm seeing bits which

could

be the town-Desp. I'm still seeing a lot which suggests scum, but he's definitely in the weaker half.

So there's where I stand.

[mastin2]

The ceremony was nice and short, so I've got time for one post.

If FTL is for sure scum then Mastin is probably a partner.

Hole number one: I'm not scum. I'm anti-scum, in fact.

Hole number two: FTL is almost certainly town.

Have I mentioned that this is a scum-Mala?

I also find it odd how many people didn't comment on my interaction with Ghostlin besides Mac.

Because Ghostlin is town and you are not town. Simple.

Where you say you don't have much. So now I have to ask, why are you pushing me so hard? What changed between 692 and 928 that caused you to be so sure i'm scum, and why haven't you mentioned it anywhere?

Your continued posting, me re-evaluating and realizing you were less town than I originally thought and more scum (opposite of zMuffinMan), basically, everything.

mastin wat do you think of nacho? you left him entirely off of your list.

I left Nacho and Venmar of because ~reasons~. That's all you're getting.

Mind quoting where he said 'five scum'? I just read the opening post again and could not find any mention.

Coulda sworn it was somewhere. If not here and if not in the signup thread then in Xenoblade. I recall him mentioning the number of scum when he announced it single-faction, and there were only three places he's done that. Could be wrong, of course, but I really seem to remember it.

That said, even if there isn't an announcement, that's the number we have. 21 players is too small for 6 scum and too large for 4 scum.

Mastin, are you sure you didn't receive a scum role PM?

Quite. Woulda been much easier this game if I had, but no. (I actually think I'm more comfortable playing as scum right now than I am as town. 2013 has been a very good scum-year for me.) I received the anti-scum-PM.

[mastin2]

I recall him mentioning the number of scum when he announced it single-faction, and there were only three places he's done that. Could be wrong, of course, but I really seem to remember it.

Quote it and I might unvote you. I looked.

I checked and double-checked the front page, and it's not there. Thinking it might be in my PM, I checked there, too, but nope, not there, either. I swear I remember it, but I haven't been able to find it, either. But regardless, you'll unvote me eventually without me being able to find it. I can guarantee it.

Also this is wrong because you have no idea of power roles; could easily make it OP or superweak in comparison.

I'm positive it's not 4, because the scumteam would have to be SERIOUSLY,

SERIOUSLY

souped up in order to stand a chance. I'm reasonably certain that the town doesn't have the strength for it to be six, either. Also, this game can't have a serial killer; bork said one anti-town faction, and serial killers are an anti-town faction. (Albeit a solo-one.)

[5] mastin2 (Venmar, Trust Fund, BROseidon, nickthename, TiphaineDeath)

I mean look at this sexy wagon. Come on guys you know you wanna join it.

Sexy wagon my

ass

.

One hidden-read, two barely-town-reads, a maybe-scumread, and an actual-scum. (Skull's later addition being even worse.)
Heck, the Rach wagon isn't much better. If anything, being worse.

[5] RachMarie (zMuffinMan, Andrius, Desperado, Faster Than Light, Nachomamma8)

Two dueling scumreads, the other hidden-read, and two weak townreads. If you really want a sexy wagon, look at this:

[4] nickthename (mastin2, notscience, BeautyAndTheBeast, thezmon221)

Two conftown voting back-to-back, along with a totally-obvtown player and a decently-pro-town player.

Mastin looks like really, really lost town to me right now.

But I think I'm beginning to hone in on things. 'Specially with the super-sekrit scenario which is looking more and more appetizing. Nacho's quite right; it'll take a night phase or two for me to really get in my element. Basically, yeah. I was feeling lost. But I *think* I'm slowly drawing the pieces together and getting a handle on this game. (So stop nullreading me and start townreading me, SoS. ) In fact, you say it better than I can.

"I know I'm screwing things up but let me get my shit together and do something useful."

That's pretty much

exactly

how I'm feeling at the moment.

the only thing that really and truly bugs me is his buttering up after everything he said in pikman.

Mollie, I don't think you're quite remembering Pinkmin mafia near the end of my life, there. Check my posts after you investigated ActionDan. (Maybe a bit before, maybe a bit after, but thereabouts that time.) I "buttered up" to you

back then

.

If you tell a lie often enough, does it become truth?

Lie about confidence? Yes. Telling a lie about how confident I am can allow me to become the mask, as I later say. As for saying I'm town, I'm saying it because it's true, and you're idiots for not realizing it.

Any particular reason you'd assume that Scum has day-talk this game?

I don't think scum have daytalk this game.

For the record--Trust Fund moves to being town for being one of the only players with an actual legitimate case for why I'm scum. Ultimately, a wrong one, yes, because I'm about as town as can be. But still, they're town for it. And their continued posting afterwards. No. Seriously. Trust Fund is now a legit townread of mine. Not a "faking it for the sake of the lie" of confidence townread. Legitimate, "at least on part with MuffinMan" if not higher townread. You want an argument that they're scum rather than just wrongtown, and it'll need to be DANG-good to convince me.

Don't really see it as a scum slip. I myself have always thought about how many scum are in a game so I can look for possible connections. Main reason why I haven't voted Mastin. I think he's scum, but not for the whole "5 scum thing".

Cognitive dissonance ahoy! "Not a scumslip, and him thinking about it keeps me from voting him. Still think he's scum, but not for that." How does that work from a town mindset? Especially with a noticeable wagon on me? And where are those other reasons? Yeah, my point exactly. Also, this:

Holy shit. The links that SoS posted on Andy look similar to the walls here. brb checking new links and then moving onto Mastin.

Uh

"andy's walls here look like the scum meta SoS just linked"

"moving on to mastin"

???

(Trust Fund beating me to it, and Malak having said it at all, increases townread on TF and scumread on MalaK.)

For the record--slooooooooowly seeing more of town-Desp especially with my super-sekrit theory in mind, which is progressively pushing him from scum into town. (Also, I need those scumslots for other scum players. ) Oh, heck with it. Desp moves to town. Period.

[mastin2]

Let's review, shall we?

TOWN

:

notscience
BeautyAndTheBeast
Ghostlin
Sound of Silence
Aj The Epic
Trust Fund
Faster Than Light
zMuffinMan
Mac
Desperado

TiphaineDeath
thezmon221

RachMarie

SCUM

:

nickthename
Malakittens
Andrius

NULL

:

BROseidon
Skullduggery

Hidden:

Nachomamma8
Venmar

[mastin2]

venmar, mac, bnb, sos, ftl, nick
desperado, ghostlin, nacho, mastin

low

malakittens
aj
thezmon
trustfund
td
andrius
skullduggery
bro
RM

high

Take Aj, TF, thez, and TD out of your scumlist and we can talk. In fact,
venmar, mac, bnb, sos, ftl, nick
desperado, ghostlin, nacho, mastin

low

malakittens
andrius
skullduggery
bro
RM

high

They were all conveniently placed together, so let's talk.

[mastin2]

which of my reads are different to yours

I'm going to give you the unfiltered version as soon as I catch up. Basically, I was hoping to hold onto my secret reads and have the results of them revealed D2, but I can't keep this up, 'specially given how transparent I am. So you'll see 'em pretty much after this post.

Buuuuuut...

Stop lynching Skullduggery. If my theory is correct, Skull is town.

Also, Aj moves to basically-conftown status. You'll be seeing why in a bit.

/begins typing. This'll...take a while. Don't rush into a lynch, because this is important info to have.

[mastin2]

Alright. Reveal time.

Venmar is scum.

It's actually a lot for the reasons Venmar himself pointed out: his reads are abysmal, especially his scumread on me. He knows my town game well enough to recognize that this is it, especially with what I've given so far.

But it's more than that. The PGO claim makes him virtually immune to actions, lest a town player risk being killed. I don't think it fits into the setup now that I think about it, and the whole claim reeks of being faked. But beyond that, there's his interactions.

His stubborn insistence that I am scum goes beyond reason. This is particularly true with scum lacking daychat (a fact I am rather certain of), since his scumbuddies aren't capable of saying, "Venmar, STOP! YOU'RE GOING TO AWAKEN THE BEAST! MASTIN IS TOO DAMN GOOD A PLAYER TO TRY AND MISLYNCH!"

The only way they can do so is via the thread. (You'll be seeing a bit of that later.) He's defending Rach, he's calling Nacho town, he chainsaw defended Andrius (via calling Mac scum) while simultaneously leaving open the option of a double-bus (1521), his read on nick has been weak-distancing, and has Malakittens as town.

All for bad or nonexistent reasoning.

Now if you couldn't tell...

Nachomamma8 is scum.

Him being a scumread is the entire reason I wanted to wait, because if I was wrong, I'd look like an idiot. However, the thought of him being a scumread came as early as my post where I did the nick-iso. (That bit at the end of my nick-iso post where I said READ REDACTED? That was a Nacho-scumread, off of nick's interactions with him.)

But, dang it, Nacho's posting here is dangerously-reminiscent of his posting during Buzzword Bingo. He didn't get into the initial pile of town, and has been fighting to recover from this setback in an eerily-similar manner. His posting's fairly light, both in amounts, and in actual content; he's NOT ACTUALLY PUSHING ANY OF HIS READS like I'd expect a town-Nacho to be doing.

But if that wasn't enough, there's his bad interactions.

venny baby are you scum?

Distancing, not pushing it, and potentially signally Venmar that he's being an idiot. Yes, he places a vote, but that singular line is not a push. It's an explanation, not a reasoning.

That's all you have for me...?
---
I'm willing to listen to your reads pretty strongly but you're ignoring me and not even trying to sell me on shit. Why is that?

These are examples of why a town-Nacho should be KEEPING his vote on Venmar. Instead, he changes to BROseidon, who he has no read on.

832 seems like a post entirely composed of messages to scumbuddies. (With the possible exception of BRO, and obviously Desp who is town.)

His Andrius townread seems bad, as is his townread on Malakittens, when her posting hasn't been solid at all.

1485 also looks scum-motivated, as does this:

hey venmar are you gonna vote skull or...?

...Where Nacho tries to get Venmar off of me, Nacho being smart enough to realize wagoning me will backfire spectacularly.

RachMarie is scum.

This was the scenario I was talking about. RachMarie can only be scum if Nacho is scum, because Rach's defense of Nacho and overall interactions with his slot tie her alignment to his. However, that said,

We shouldn't be lynching RachMarie.

A RachMarie scumflip confirms Nacho as scum, but a RachMarie townflip doesn't confirm Nacho as town. In contrast, a Nacho townflip confirms RachMarie as town, and a Nacho scumflip confirms RachMarie as scum.

We shouldn't be lynching Nacho.

Yes, I'm reasonably certain this is Nacho's scumgame, but I couldn't live with myself if it ended up that I was wrong, and I mislynched a town-Nacho-who-wasn't-in-his-element-yet on D1.

Andrius is scum.

He has ties to Nacho. He has ties to nick. He has ties to Malakittens. He has the same tie to Venmar that Nacho does.

Venmar who's the scum?

Even the same question. He has ties to Rach.

nickthename is scum.

His immediate treatment of the Venmar claim, along with how he jumps off at the first chance possible. His treatment of nhammen (Malakittens) reinforces this.

Specifically, what are your feelings on Rach and Mastin?

Distancing on Rach.

Hey, so nacho, I don't know if you've ever played in a game this big before, but with this many players you're not going to be able to get much out of voting someone without explaining it, even if a few people are already voting that person, because you just need so many votes to lynch. You need to explain your votes to try and get a bunch of other people to vote with you.

Also, in this game you can switch your vote without unvoting, but if varies from mod to mod so it's a good idea to check the rules first.

Nacho interaction.

Could you elaborate on your nhammen read? Nhammen feels pretty null to me.

More defense of Malakittens's slot.

But it's worst here:

Rach- She's right up there with zMuffin as far as time since we last heard from her, and her play before didn't really give me much of an opinion on her.
Nacho- Not contributing much, but nacho never contributes much. Until something serious that he is forced to react to, I doubt I'll get much of a read here.
Andrius- His scumread on me feels forced, but his read of the game feels towny. Dunno, really.
Venmar- Who knows? Not me.

Rach at null, Nacho at Null and hinting at knowing Nacho better than his previous quote said, Andrius at null, and Venmar as well. Without any commentary at all to go along with it.

Malakittens is scum.

I disagree with a majority of his posts especially on account to Venmar's role.

(TD had Venmar as scum.)

I want Rach to explain #66 in regards to MS claiming early in another game, tyvm.

(Interaction with Rach.)

I have seen town-Nacho lurk and I have seen him be lynched for it in a hydra. It's a null tell at best.

Defense of Nacho, and buddying to Rach.

Really Nick? Do you not like that Mollie and Fery are trying to communicate reads together. Does this make scum you not able to force fake scum reads and push their wagons?

Distancing to nick. (Which also doesn't mesh with her scumread on me.)

One of these reads is probably wrong.

They could be right, but that'd require six scum, when I think there's only five. Which is wrong, however, I can't tell, yet. (That's another reason I considered waiting.)

The purpose of this post is mainly to show the interactions between the scum.

Not the entirety of my cases against each player. There's plenty of individual not-tied-to-interactions reasons these players are my scumreads.

BROseidon is someone I have my eye on.

He shares many of the same traits the above players have in their interactions between one another, even though I don't currently think he is a good fit.

Skullduggery lacks these traits.

I see him as being set up as the scum mislynch for day one, especially if both Rach and Andrius are scum. They're not going to get a mislynch on me, after all, and thus, Skull presents the best opportunity to achieve a mislynch today. (FTL is another similar candidate.)

What should we be doing?

Expanding on the above, fleshing out my cases, examining these players in detail, and figuring out for sure if I'm right or wrong on these.

Where does that leave the other players?

Pretty much unchanged from my last post, actually.

TOWN

:

notscience
Aj The Epic
BeautyAndTheBeast
Ghostlin
Sound of Silence
Trust Fund
Faster Than Light
zMuffinMan
Mac
Desperado
TiphaineDeath

thezmon221
Skullduggery

SCUM CANDIDATES

:

nickthename
Malakittens
Andrius
Venmar
Nachomamma8
RachMarie

IN RESERVE

:

BROseidon.

[mastin2]

Key Votecounts:

[8] TiphaineDeath (

Venmar

, zMuffinMan,

nickthename

, BeautyAndTheBeast, Mac, Ghostlin, Faster Than Light, Trust Fund)

I find it particularly telling that this TD wagon got this much on it. However, I think that the wagon was most scummy near its beginning. Later-on, TD gave enough ammo for the town to be legitimately suspicious of him, but earlier-on, his play didn't validate this level of attention.

[5] Faster Than Light (thezmon221,

Malakittens

, Skullduggery, TiphaineDeath,

nickthename

)
[4] RachMarie (zMuffinMan,

Andrius

, Desperado, Faster Than Light)
[3] mastin2 (

Venmar

, Trust Fund, BROseidon)
[3] nickthename (Aj The Epic, mastin2, notscience)

Nick's once more on the dominant wagon, and Malakittens is here as well. The Rach wagon has begun to form, as has the wagon on me and nick. Of note is that the nick wagon has three players, two of them conftown and the third basically the same. Yet it never got much traction.

[5] mastin2 (

Venmar

, Trust Fund, BROseidon,

nickthename

, TiphaineDeath)
[5] RachMarie (zMuffinMan,

Andrius

, Desperado, Faster Than Light,

Nachomamma8

)
[4] nickthename (mastin2, notscience, BeautyAndTheBeast, thezmon221)

Nick once again joins the dominant wagon, this time on me. The Rach wagon also forms, but the nick wagon (despite having two additional names, one an ultimate-townread and the other still a townread) continues not to grow.

[5] Andrius (BeautyAndTheBeast, Sound of Silence, notscience, Trust Fund,

Malakittens

)
[5] RachMarie (zMuffinMan,

Andrius

, Desperado, Faster Than Light,

Nachomamma8

)

I believe we have duelling scum wagons at this point. Look at the names on Andrius; we've got one super-mega-townread (B&B), one awesome-townread (SoS), one conftown, and one player who is almost-certainly town despite the controversy. (Trust Fund.) If you want a sexy wagon, Andrius is it. Malakittens joins during a time where it appears Andrius is basically confirmed-scum via meta, and thus, at the perfect time for a bus.

[6] Andrius (BeautyAndTheBeast, Sound of Silence, notscience, Trust Fund,

Malakittens, RachMarie

)
[6] RachMarie (zMuffinMan,

Andrius

, Desperado, Faster Than Light, thezmon221, TiphaineDeath)

Of critical importance, Nacho has abandoned the Rach wagon (which he was late to be on). Rach, similar to Malakittens, joins the Andrius wagon at the ideal time to bus.

[7] Andrius (BeautyAndTheBeast, Sound of Silence, notscience, Trust Fund,

Malakittens, RachMarie

, Mac)
[7] RachMarie (zMuffinMan,

Andrius

, Desperado, Faster Than Light, thezmon221, TiphaineDeath, Aj The Epic)

Bringing us to here. I realize the Rach wagon is sexy with all the town players there, and that the Andrius wagon is slightly-less-so with both Rach and MalaK present, but I maintain my position that Rach's not the best lynch.

Who would you recommend, then?

Andrius, nickthename, or Malakittens, currently, but with a STRONG lean towards nickthename.
-I don't know Andrius that well.
-If I'm wrong on Malakittens, she's a valuable town player.
-nickthename has plenty of interactions, and thus, gives a ton of information. This makes him a better lynch than Rach, who has not very many interactions at all.
-But critically, nick is a player whose input I don't really value if I were to be wrong. If I'm wrong on Nacho/Malakittens/Andrius/Venmar/andsoon, then we lost a strong town player. If I'm wrong on nick, we lose...a player who's quite frankly not giving much pro-town content at all.

Thus, nick gives us info (high reward) while also not having much risk. Rach gives us not much info (low reward) even if the risk is also low. Andrius gives us info (medium reward) but has a higher risk (medium), and similarly escalated for Nacho/Malakittens/Venmar, who're all high risk/reward.

Nick's lynch therefore gives us the most while having the least lost from it if I'm wrong.

[mastin2]

so essentially your scum candidates are all scum because they make sense as scum together?

Nobutyes.

No, that's not the entirety of the reason why they're scum. I have more on each of them, except RachMarie. (RM is scum entirely based off of interactions; I see nothing wrong in her posting otherwise.) But yes, they're all scum partially (or mainly) because they fit together as a scumteam. But critically, not a "picture-perfect" scumteam (picture-perfect = 100% wrong ), nor a violation of occam's razor in its complexity. They fit together as a scumteam in a realistic way.

[mastin2]

Mastin, who do you suggest we lynch first, then? Mala, since she has the strongest associative tells?

I already told you.

Nick.

-He has the lowest risk in lynching if I'm wrong about him being scum.
-He has the highest reward in lynching him because regardless of right or wrong his flip gives us a TON of info.

Compared to Malakittens, who
-Has a high risk in lynching, because she's a strong player and if I'm wrong about her is lost to us forever.
-Has that same high reward in lynching regardless of town/scum, but again, has the risk above.

[mastin2]

I fucking hate elaborate association analysis sans flips. I can't think how many times the majority of the so called associations have turned out to be among town players. There aren't many slouches in this player list. Scum associations will probably be pretty subtle.

Which is why I kept things relatively simple (as to not violate occam's razor) while also pointing out how the subtle interactions looked like they're from scum. I fully admit, my analysis isn't perfect. I'm probably wrong on at least one read, given the likely number of scum this game. But I

do

think that it's worth bringing attention to.

Spoiler: To Venmar

The thing with Mastin is that i'm seeing half of his play as part of his scum meta, and the other as part of his town meta. The big posts, even though I think they're not that good, look like his town self, and his general posting looks align with his town mentality. What bugs me is that Mastin enjoys weird and obscure votes on non-momentum wagons / players as scum, and Mastins attitude in his first few posts also look really scummy, not to mention Mastins spur of activity was inspired by the wagon that grew on him which makes him look beetlejuicy. The fact he has receeded back I think means his posting was just response to pressure and wasn't town motivated...

I'll give you a helpful hint: don't try to meta me. Like, seriously. I've been in 120+ games for sure. (Probably more, but not that I can confirm.) Of them, roughly half have been on mastin2. (And another 30 or so on Mastin, and the remaining on hydras and alts which have a different meta.) *I* don't know my meta. (And even if I did, the very act of me being aware of my meta spurns me to change said meta. I constantly evolve my play, and adapt my play to specific games and specific playerlists regardless of alignment. No two games are alike.) If I can't know my own meta, what makes you think that some upstart with only a few games of exposure to me can know it?

That's not to say nobody can get an accurate read on me. You can get townreads and scumreads that are correct, especially if you've hydra'd with me and know my general thought process in a game. But said reads are not based off of meta from two or three random games. Rather, they're based off of in-thread posting, and how I make myself be obvtown or (accidentally, obviously ) obvscum. I'm not saying it's impossible for someone to get an accurate meta read. I am saying that I've never seen anyone GET a successful meta read. Use meta on me, sure. And use it to OBTAIN a read, sure, but not a meta-read itself. (For instance, an example of using meta to GET a read is to point out a generality in my play, "Mastin always does that", and then to explain the town-reasoning and scum-reasoning behind it, and which way the person believes I am leaning, more or less.) Basically, if you're town who's trying to meta me, you're doing it wrong if you expect to get a clear picture of alignment.

There's a reason my MD theory focuses so heavily on the

generalities

of meta and covering a wide variety of games, emphasizing the strengths of meta (understanding how a player thinks, in general, as scum, and as town), and also the weaknesses (that players evolve/adapt their play and that no two games are identical) of it.

Buuuuut, let me humor you anyway. My scum meta used to be voting on non-momentum lynches, yes, but it's not anymore. My scum meta is more like I focus on players who I see as realistically having a chance at being mislynched, but who're not the dominant wagon. "...Isn't...that...what you're doing with nick?" Yes, it is, admittedly. I don't really have any answer for that, in fact. If you want to base a vote on me off of that pattern, then I have no explanation to it, other than that I'm not scum. I guess I can invent reasons, which're probably true to some extent, but they're still BS. Reasons like "I don't like being on big wagons in general" (which is true, but hasn't really contributed to my play as far as I know), "I adapt successful elements of my scum play into my town play" (which is also true, but again, probably doesn't apply to targetting a secondary-tier lynch person), and such. Yet those are all half-hearted; I really don't have anything to explain that. It's just there, and I'm town.

As for the bit about my activity, check the timestamps. My activity has been consistent without the aid of wagon or no wagon. The exception to this is on weekends, which I have marked as V/LA in my signature for dang-good reasoning. My activity levels have been the same regardless of whether someone has called my name. I'll admit, many of my posts are addressed to people who call out my name, but that's because they're calling out my name and I don't want to ignore them. There's plenty in my posting which isn't about players calling my name, though.

You should sort me out today, though. Don't wait until the night. Believe me, I'm far more likely to be nightkilled than you think, so I wouldn't waste effort trying to read me. You can trust me to be town.

For the record--miiiiiiight be moving Venmar back into town.

...Aw, heck. I'm moving Venmar back into town. I'm trusting him to be town, despite what I've said about him.

[mastin2]

Is it bad that I just read every single post since my last...

...And I have absolutely nothing to say?

I think that's bad.

I'll see if I can think of a solution. Generate content I see as useful. (Not sure how atm, but I'll figure something out.)

[mastin2]

nickthename
Malakittens
Andrius
Nachomamma8
RachMarie
(BROseidon?)

Mine.

[mastin2]

It did, but boring things that I could have figured out normally. I'll have more explain-y posts when I have more time, but the only REALLY interesting things were mastin and Venmar, mastin in a town way and venmar in a not so town way. But mastin's town for other reasons and I can't get a handle on Venmar for the life of me, so.

Eh, I'm reasonably certain that Venmar is town. His reach-out to me was really telling, and it's had the effect of reversing my scumread into a decent townread.

And, Nacho, you're going to have to show me some more of my Nacho before I actually believe that you were drawing negative attention intentionally.

You have Rach and Andrius both as scum but haven't touched their wagons. Why not?

Addressed sorta in my Venmar spoiler. Because I'm stubborn when it comes to wagons I push, and because I have a general aversion to hopping onto a wagon.

[mastin2]

Dang it.

I really,

really

should have something to say, but I'm coming up empty. :/

[mastin2]

Town
FTL
notscience
BnB
Venmar
Trust Fund
TD
Ghostlin
Aj The Epic
zMuffinMan
Bert/znon/Saki
Desperado
nickthename
Rach

Null
Andrius (fery have him as town I think)
Nachomamma (I think fery have him as leaning town)
mastin2
Mac

Scum
nhammen/Mala
BROseidon
skull/mutley

Important. (With the exception of nick and obviously Rach, I agree with every single townread listed.)

Andy: Never gonna happen. You have a better chance of trying to get notscience vigged than you do of trying to get me lynched.

Venmar: I assume you did some reading over the night. (I, too, did some work on my reads, though not nearly as much as I should have.) What'd you come up with?

Unvote, Vote: Venmar

Not happening any time soon, and your supporting it is making

you

look worse, Nacho.

VOTE: Malakittens.
(Could vote Nacho, too. Also, nick's still scum.)

[mastin2]

@mastin - you think nacho bussed the shit out of rach then?

Quite possibly.

but srs can we lynch mastin first please

You're not conf.town, he is.

Not happening any time soon, and your supporting it is making you look worse, Nacho.

Wait what. He was in your top four scumreads yesterday and somehow slipped out? AM I MISSING SOMETHING HERE MASTIN?

In order. I maintain my statement. You're never getting a Mastin lynch. Why? Because tying into the next part, I

am

confirmed town.

As for Venmar, yes. You missed this:

For the record--miiiiiiight be moving Venmar back into town.

...Aw, heck.

I'm moving Venmar back into town

. I'm trusting him to be town, despite what I've said about him.

This has grown stronger, not weaker, over the night. Venmar is town, and I'm waiting on him to post, because he's almost certainly done a readthrough during the night and I value his thoughts right now more than

almost

any other player.

[mastin2]

notscience
Venmar
Ghostlin
Trust Fund
Aj The Epic
BeautyAndTheBeast
Faster Than Light
zMuffinMan
Mac
Desperado
TiphaineDeath

Skullduggery

My town-list.

Spoiler: SoS's townlist

FTL
notscience
BnB
Venmar
Trust Fund
TD
Ghostlin
Aj The Epic
zMuffinMan
Bert/znon/Saki
Desperado

Hard to say if this was in order or not, given that FTL is above notscience.

But still. Again, the names are identical. Mac's missing (and is at null), and Skull/Mut is listed as scum (I think this is wrong; I have Mutley as town), but otherwise, identical.

Yes, I removed Rach, who we know to be scum, and removed nick.

nickthename
Malakittens
Andrius
Nachomamma8

My scum-list. (Broseidon was a maybe on there, but has been removed. He's null/town.)

So again. This game's ridiculously easy to win by POE.

notscience is town. Venmar is town. Ghostlin is town. Trust Fund is town.
Aj is pretty dang town, as is Beauty and the Beast, Faster than Light, and now I can say zMuffinMan as well.
Mac's also townposting, as is Desperado.

That leaves a rather small pool. TiphaineDeath, Skull/Mutt, Broseidon, and my four scumreads of {nick, Malakittens, Andrius, Nacho}.

TD looks to be town (albeit weakly so), I still don't think Mutt's scum, Broseidon has evidence pointing to him being town, and again, that points once more to the four.

[mastin2]

Should be noted--my scumread on Andrius is actually much weaker than it used to be. He's virtually at null.
Similarly, if you couldn't tell by the above, my TD townread has decayed a bit, albeit not even close to reversed. (Still in town, not even null.)

[mastin2]

Mastin, anyone who claims that as a Vig shot without counterclaim is roughly 95% Town.

I have them in my town-list, right?

Unvote, Vote: Venmar

Gonna do this for a bit and see how it goes.

Wrong vote. You can't think all of {nick, MalaK, Nacho} are town, can you?

By the way, moving TD back into my town pile. "Wait, didn't you just say..."

Well screw what I said earlier. I reconsidered. TD is town. Also, seriously. Don't lynch Venmar, don't try to vig Venmar. He. is. town. Period. End of discussion. 'Kay?

[mastin2]

Let me reiterate.

TOWN:
notscience
Venmar
TiphaineDeath
Ghostlin
Trust Fund

BeautyAndTheBeast
Faster Than Light
Aj The Epic
zMuffinMan
Mac
Desperado
Skullduggery/Mutley

Tiers 1 and 2. (Trust Fund is borderline 2, but I'm listing them as 1.)

I'm telling you guys. Before, on day one, I wasn't in my element. But now? Now I am. These reads (strongest to weakest, approximately) are not wrong. I can go into great lengths about how every single name on here is town, be it from town meta, town posting, town roles, whatever. They are all, 98%, guaranteed

town

. I am in my element, now, because I've locked in.

What does that leave?
{Andrius, BROseidon, Nachomamma8, Malakittens, nickthename}

Those five. I can equally guarantee all the remaining scum are in those. five. names.

Now I don't think they're all scum, but four of them pretty much have to be. If I had to choose the town name, it'd currently be BROseidon thanks to Trust Fund's gambit--additionally, because Trust Fund's power apparently worked, if BROseidon

were

to be scum, then by my understanding, he's become worthless to his team and thus, not a priority lynch. My alternative pick for the town name is Andrius, whose posting

has

gotten better, but he's still not a great poster, and still incriminated by this POE.

Then there's Nacho, Malakittens, and nickthename. All of them are legitimate scumreads. Not POE. Legitimate scumreads that I can talk lengthily about how they're scum, and how they've got condemning interactions with one another, and how even as individuals, their posting has been bad. I realize I blew a lot of my scumhunting cred yesterday with my earlier posting. But now? Now I've got it back. So

sheep me

, and lynch Malakittens.

[mastin2]

Know what? Why do later what I can do now? Starting with the townreads, Trust Fund and below.

Spoiler: Trust Fund

I will admit. They didn't start off strong. I had them as possible scum. But then, they struck a chord in me. I can point out a lot of their early posts which I initially didn't think much of but now read as town, but I'll instead tell you where I started to see them as town. It started with 1207. Yes. A case against me. Yes, ultimately a wrong case, because I am town, but not an unjustified case, and the best logical case in the game that was presented for why I could be scum. It showed legitimate thoughts like nothing I had seen before, solid reasoning, and basically, a town mindset through-and-through. This solid posting continued, including with things like 1295, and even better, 1312. 1436 is also excellent.

Overall, their reads seem to have evolved very organically and naturally. Their pushes don't seem forced, their posting isn't artificial, they've shown original thoughts, and they've been townposting like champions. Their pushes have also been quite excellent, too. All that with

out

their roleclaim, which strengthens the townread on them even further. I really don't see how anyone can have a scumread here.

Spoiler: Beauty and the Beast

Similar to Trust Fund, they are a slot which I didn't initially have a good read on--their posting didn't seem solid; it seemed incredibly generic and "easy". However, then they kicked into gear, put in effort, and bam, bingo, they're insanely town. This SCREAMS town-mollie. Granted, I am not the best at reading her in this game; other players here are probably better at it than I am. But everything I see is of a town-mollie.

Furthermore, in addition to this being in line with what I expect from the town-mollie, their thoughts have been incredibly solid. They've been contributing content consistently, asking all the right questions, analyzing all the right spots, giving their takes on things, pushing their wagons fairly aggressively, everything's there. Similar to Trust Fund, I simply see no reason for them to be scum, whereas there's an overwhelming number of reasons why they're town.

Spoiler: Faster than Light

FtL has been a townread of mine from early-on. Both heads have done things which have proven their town alignment, contributing thoughts which are

really freakin' legitimate

, and providing nuggets of insight. Yeah, their posting has occasionally been annoying--but never has it been scummy.

All their reads are backed by solid posting, and reading things like their mega-wall only solidifies this. They've been posting like town, thinking like town, giving reads like town, everything like town, and I simply can't see why they were ever seen as scummy.

Spoiler: Aj the Epic

I'll admit. This read's mostly not mine. Its other people, who have played with Aj before, and say that this is Aj's town posting. I'm trusting all those people to have it right. But beyond that, Aj's said a lot of town stuff. It's juuuuuuuuuust generic enough that I can't put Aj as a solid townread of mine for my own reasoning, but it's specific enough where he's dang-close.

For instance, as early as 247, you get stuff like this:

So far, the obvious choices for the early scum list are TFL, Nick, and TD deciding to vote for Venmar because of 'stupidity'. That's a copout reason. But I don't like the wagon, especially recently with weak votes from Nick and FTL. In fact, I really think Nick's true bad vote came on his vote on Mac, not TD. 210 and 218 felt like he was trying to pull some bullshit test off and even when he wants to vote Mac, he doesn't explain his reasoning for shit. He is obligated to explain such reasoning because he's suggesting a slip/misrep and therefore needs to bring it to light instead of saying "That's not what happened" when Mac essentially agreed with his original post.

It would have been easy to jump onto the Venmar wagon. Instead he calls it out. It would have been easy to jump onto TD. Instead, he calls TD town. He goes after Nick, a target nobody was really paying much attention to at the time, and locks onto him. His reasoning is incredibly solid, too.

His jump onto Malakittens was about as solid as you can get. His reasonings were dead-on-the-mark in his spoilered case, and it also showed his evolving read on FTL. He even explains his stance on nick remains scum in 941, too, but that Malakittens is a better target. Then, he switches to Rach, for equally-solid reasoning. Again, his reads have been dead-on-the-money. Not in a manner which screams bussing, either. In a matter which shows a solid town player. For instance, look at this gem of reasoning:

If Mala is scum: FTL is town, Rach is scum. Mastin also gains a great deal of more reason to be town, which links that whole wagon on him.

He also tried to work with others, reaching out to them, trying to compromise, and to find the best lynch for D1.

You might notice that Aj's not higher on my townlist. That's not because he's not a strong townread. It's just because my other townreads are stronger, and he is not someone I know as well. But, dangit, if I did, he would be.

Spoiler: zMuffinMan

I'll admit, I'm rusty on my skills for reading him. Sure, I probably used to be good at it, but until I saw his avatar, I had completely forgotten who he even

was

. And even then, it took his comment towards me for me to remember, "Oh, yeah. I used to be good at reading this guy." (Before that, all I thought was, "Hmm, this avatar is familiar; probably played with this guy before." )

Not only that, but it's been so long since he's played with me that even if my skills were good at reading him back then, both of our plays have shifted to the point where what worked for me back then won't work nearly as well now. All that said, though...my read is still decently town. I haven't gone back to confirm any of this, but this is what I vaguely remember to be MuffinMan's townplay, and not in line with what I vaguely remember to be his scumplay. But let's go beyond meta. While zMuffinMan's posting is far,

far

from the strongest for the players here, he's still a decent townread for what he's been doing.

His reasoning reads a bit generic, but his reads seem solid. Beyond the reads (which I admit are a bit of a subjective measuring tool), the actual words in his posts point to him trying to work with the town and figure things out. His relationship to Aj the Epic, for instance, shows him working well with others, and trying to coordinate matters. Is he the strongest townread I could have, no. He isn't. But he is a townread, and if he's scum, he's put on an impressive performance, to say the least.

Spoiler: Mac

I continue to believe this is Mac's town posting. Yes, admittedly, I am not the player most familiar with Mac. But everything I'm seeing points to Mac being town. I have a

very

strong gut feeling that this is town-Mac, and not scuMac. Beyond the gut read which I haven't bothered to back up with meta, though,

read his posts

.

Each post, while not exactly being very solid, contributes small nuggets that are incredibly helpful, showing great insight. They have the air of trying to figure things out around them, and other than one or two spots which're questionable, they all read as town. Basically, Mac is a lesser version of Aj the Epic. And I do mean lesser, since Mac is near the bottom of my town-list. I

could

be wrong, but I really,

really

don't think I am.

Spoiler: Desperado

Another player who I had a bad read of initially. Desperado became town mainly because I saw what I identified to be hints of his townplay, and he didn't really mesh with the scumteam I had in mind. (The scumteam involving {Rach, Nacho, Andrius, Malakittens, nickthename, BROseidon}.)

For starters, Desperado's first post would be an epic bus if he were actually scum. His reads seem to evolve in a fairly natural way, and he definitely seems to be trying to figure things out. I'll admit, it's a weak townread. One of my weakest, in fact, and I can't talk as much about him as I can others. But I still am giving him the benefit of the doubt and calling him town.

Spoiler: Mutley

Eh, I'll be honest, not much to say, here, either. I have Mutley as town, and actually a fairly strong townread at that. But unlike others in which I can talk about them in great lengths, both in general and brining up great posts by them, with Mutley, it's basically gut.

That's all the townreads. A tl;dr version, though:
I have this game on lockdown.

[mastin2]

And, seriously, guys. Trust me.

Venmar is a mislynch.

Take it from the guy who was pushing him as a scum candidate yesterday, but who has revised his opinion since then.

Venmar will not flip scum. He is 100% guaranteed town.

I will defend him to the death, got it?

[mastin2]

For my scum-cases, I'm just going to start out quoting this.

Nachomamma8 is scum.

Him being a scumread is the entire reason I wanted to wait, because if I was wrong, I'd look like an idiot. However, the thought of him being a scumread came as early as my post where I did the nick-iso. (That bit at the end of my nick-iso post where I said READ REDACTED? That was a Nacho-scumread, off of nick's interactions with him.)

But, dang it, Nacho's posting here is dangerously-reminiscent of his posting during Buzzword Bingo. He didn't get into the initial pile of town, and has been fighting to recover from this setback in an eerily-similar manner. His posting's fairly light, both in amounts, and in actual content; he's NOT ACTUALLY PUSHING ANY OF HIS READS like I'd expect a town-Nacho to be doing.

But if that wasn't enough, there's his bad interactions.

That's all you have for me...?
---
I'm willing to listen to your reads pretty strongly but you're ignoring me and not even trying to sell me on shit. Why is that?

These are examples of why a town-Nacho should be KEEPING his vote on Venmar. Instead, he changes to BROseidon, who he has no read on.

832 seems like a post entirely composed of messages to scumbuddies. (With the possible exception of BRO, and obviously Desp who is town.)

His Andrius townread seems bad, as is his townread on Malakittens, when her posting hasn't been solid at all.

1485 also looks scum-motivated.

RachMarie is scum.

This was the scenario I was talking about. RachMarie can only be scum if Nacho is scum, because Rach's defense of Nacho and overall interactions with his slot tie her alignment to his. A RachMarie scumflip confirms Nacho as scum. In contrast, a Nacho townflip confirms RachMarie as town, and a Nacho scumflip confirms RachMarie as scum. I'm reasonably certain this is Nacho's scumgame.

Andrius is scum.

He has ties to Nacho. He has ties to nick. He has ties to Malakittens. He has ties to Rach.

nickthename is scum.

His immediate treatment of the Venmar claim, along with how he jumps off at the first chance possible. His treatment of nhammen (Malakittens) reinforces this.

Specifically, what are your feelings on Rach and Mastin?

Distancing on Rach.

Hey, so nacho, I don't know if you've ever played in a game this big before, but with this many players you're not going to be able to get much out of voting someone without explaining it, even if a few people are already voting that person, because you just need so many votes to lynch. You need to explain your votes to try and get a bunch of other people to vote with you.

Also, in this game you can switch your vote without unvoting, but if varies from mod to mod so it's a good idea to check the rules first.

Nacho interaction.

Could you elaborate on your nhammen read? Nhammen feels pretty null to me.

More defense of Malakittens's slot.

But it's worst here:

Rach- She's right up there with zMuffin as far as time since we last heard from her, and her play before didn't really give me much of an opinion on her.
Nacho- Not contributing much, but nacho never contributes much. Until something serious that he is forced to react to, I doubt I'll get much of a read here.
Andrius- His scumread on me feels forced, but his read of the game feels towny. Dunno, really.

Rach at null, Nacho at Null and hinting at knowing Nacho better than his previous quote said, and Andrius at null. Without any commentary at all to go along with it.

Malakittens is scum.

I disagree with a majority of his posts especially on account to Venmar's role.

(TD had Venmar as scum.)

I want Rach to explain #66 in regards to MS claiming early in another game, tyvm.

(Interaction with Rach.)

I have seen town-Nacho lurk and I have seen him be lynched for it in a hydra. It's a null tell at best.

Defense of Nacho, and buddying to Rach.

Really Nick? Do you not like that Mollie and Fery are trying to communicate reads together. Does this make scum you not able to force fake scum reads and push their wagons?

Distancing to nick. (Which also doesn't mesh with her scumread on me.)

BROseidon is someone I have my eye on.

He shares many of the same traits the above players have in their interactions between one another.

One of these reads is probably wrong.

They could be right, but that'd require six scum, when I think there's only five. Which is wrong, however, I can't tell, yet. (That's another reason I considered waiting.)

The purpose of this post is mainly to show the interactions between the scum.

Not the entirety of my cases against each player. There's plenty of individual not-tied-to-interactions reasons these players are my scumreads.

Skullduggery lacks these traits.

I see him as being set up as the scum mislynch for day one, especially if both Rach and Andrius are scum. They're not going to get a mislynch on me, after all, and thus, Skull presents the best opportunity to achieve a mislynch today. (FTL is another similar candidate.)

What should we be doing?

Expanding on the above, fleshing out my cases, examining these players in detail, and figuring out for sure if I'm right or wrong on these.

This is not a "too good to be true" scumteam pairing, nor is it too blatantly obvious.

If I thought it to be too good to be true, I'd know it wouldn't be true. But this is a relatively-simple (therefore not violating occam's razor) scumteam pairing that is juuuuuuuuust complicated enough where the scum could think they can get away with it.

Slightly modified to reflect recent changes, but mostly in-tact from the original form of the post. Read it. Love it. Know that I'm right. Again, I can (and probably should) make cases on each of them. But other players have already done a lot of the work for me. Rach's iso is littered with condemning interactions, as is these players' interactions with her. There are cases strewn throughout the thread on nick (albeit not as inclusive as it should be), Malakittens, Andrius (albeit not much), and maybe even on BROseidon. (I'll have to create the Nacho case myself.) All I've got to do is basically compile what's already been said, along with my own commentary in addition to it, to help prove it.

tl;dr:
-POE.
-Condemning interactions.
-Condemning overall posting.

What more do you need?

[mastin2]

[11] RachMarie (zMuffinMan, Desperado, Nachomamma8, Ghostlin, BeautyAndTheBeast, Aj The Epic, Sound of Silence, Andrius, Trust Fund, Saki, BROseidon)
[4] Andrius (Malakittens, RachMarie, Faster Than Light, TiphaineDeath)
[3] nickthename (mastin2, Mutleyddmc, notscience)
[1] BROseidon (Mac)
[1] mastin2 (nickthename)
[1] TiphaineDeath (Venmar)

Would just like to point out: with the exception of Nacho (who, yes, I do fully believe was bussing) and Andrius (who is in ideal bussing position) and BRoseidon (whose hammer was incredibly-suspicious), that the Rach wagon is pretty dang solid.

The Andrius wagon, in contrast, has Malakittens and RachMarie on it. Then there's nick, who vote-parked on me literally for the entirety of the day, with pretty much no reasoning behind it at all.


By the way--I find it no coincidence that the hydra with ffery in it died. Of all the players in this game, I think Nacho fears her the most as scum. Yes, you can write this off as coincidence. But I don't think so. Since I brought up his similarities in this game to his play in Buzzword Bingo mafia, let's actually quote FROM that game.

Ffery/buldey play with me offsite a lot, where they got a glimpse of the weakest part of my scumgame. I am a little better at hiding here, but they're attacking me for getting an early townread on them and attacking Jake.
ffery, that was an amazing scumtell you have on me that I picked up on recently
I usually focus on defense a little when I come under fire; i don't know if ffery knows that yet
They know me. I can throw false positives all over the fucking place as town and I can throw false negatives all the time as scum but fferyllt will find me eventually.
I'm in the weakest point of my scumgame with them. I'm going to give this my best fucking shot but god fucking damnit i hate switching gears.
ffery used to be able to read me really, really well. some of this old power retains, but not all of it.
She's caught me out when I've been in a foreign site and she's caught me out after I killed her. But she can read me now; I have to make her forget that she can read me and give her that feelgood feeling she needs to move on. I'm going to show her my personal lie castle as scum, and either that will work and solidify the read or it will cast doubt.
Unfortunately, I need aspects of my scum meta in my play. So I won't avoid them all, but if she picks up on them, I'll know I have to do a hard reset of my scumgame for her specifically. She's picking out weak trajectory reasons for now, but if she's getting me lynched she's doing a hell of a lot more than that.

(Just read the scum QT in its entirety. It's basically "Why I need to always get rid of fferry", the essay. ) For further parallels, he ended up bussing Rach in a manner not too dissimilar to how he ultimately bussed me in that game. Butyeah. Nobody in this game needed fferyllt dead more than Nacho did. Yes, her ability to read Nacho isn't perfect, and yes, it has decreased. But Nacho probably still holds that fear for her, that even if she townreads him NOW, it'll only be a matter of time before it's reversed into a scumread, and with a hydra buddy backing her up, she would be unstoppable, and unrelenting in her scumread of him.

[mastin2]

20. Venmar Dude what you smokin? Not sure what I have done to you

BUDDY TELL DETECTED

Except she has far, FAR more buddy tells which're

worse

for YOU.

I'm going to No-Sell you this game, Nacho. Your bullshit will not pass.

[mastin2]

Nacho needs to get in here and POST

more later and hey Nick cool to get to finally play with you in a forum game instead of a skype game.

Bro why would you assume that? Each game is randomized and its a very low chance that you are scum in BOTH games? Especially since this time its not multiball as per the OP.

Nacho Buddy Tell #1

. (Also decent nick/Bro buddy tells.)

hell Nacho has not even posted yet..... And a few others as well.

Nacho buddy tell #2

.

Someone said that a lurky Nacho is always a scum Nacho and I disagree I have seem him be a lurky loo when he was town as well as when he was scum, and I have seen him as both town and scum being fairly active. With him just depends on whats going on. So yeah you need a bit more than oh hes lurking he must be scum Nacho. Especially since when you look at his posting history he has not been posting much of anywhere. I know he had to borrow his GFs computer a while back, so maybe he still is having to borrow it not sure on that.

Big massive WHOPPING Nacho Buddy Tell #3

.

2. Andrius Ehh the buddying with Nacho is normal for him, The reliance on Nacho vetting for him being town also normal, but his play just does not feel right here leaning scum, Andy can you provide me with some links to scum games you have completed thanks.

10. Nachomamma8 What on earth Nacho What do you mean by revenge? ehh that being said its a tad early to rule him out as town I think.... Leaning Town... B n B could you further elaborate why you see him as scum at this point besides the connection with Andy?

12. Malakittens nhammen--- Need more time to sort Mala out, she is very good at hiding herself when she is scum Mala... Still sorting....

13. nickthename--- Not much experience with this dude, though he did very well as scum in a skype mafia game and I did not realize he was scum even in LYLO so watching this dude carefully.... Leaning town but watching....

Nacho Buddy Tell #4

. Both in the Andrius and Nacho sections. (Also included: BS reads on Malakittens and nick.)

Nacho could you explain why you saw skull as scum? Cause I had him as null and likely to be replaced...

Nacho Buddy Tell #5

. And again,

@ Nacho
Could you explain your case on Skull now Mutley a bit more? What made you think they were so scummy?
I always have some trouble reading Mutley and well Skull was practically non-existent.

Here. And here.

BTW why are you so sure he is town Nacho? His play here is not very much at all like his play in the first Xeno game?

Every single interaction Rach has with Nacho SCREAMS Nacho-scumbuddy.

[mastin2]

And, seriously. Guys. Even if you think me to be wrong in one or two or three or more of my scumreads.

Trust my tier 1 townreads. Venmar is town. You can trust me on that. You can take my word for it. I'm certain of it.

[mastin2]

And, seriously, mollie. I'm town. There's no contradiction. My stance on you has never changed. Near the beginning of the game, I

was

concerned with you; it's there in my posts, multiple times. But that was short-lived, and it turned town VERY quickly. Midway through August 12th. Near the beginning of that day, it was "might be scum". Near the end, it was "might be town". Within a couple of days, it was simply "town".

[mastin2]

Seriously, this is beginning to tick me off. Apparently, I need to spell it out for you.

V-E-N-M-A-R-I-S-T-O-W-N. Venmaristown. Err, Venmar is town.

The attempt to lynch him is INCREDIBLY scum-driven. I cannot emphasize this enough.

[mastin2]

so what moved you to having us as "strong town!" cos you did say this to being in the lower tier?

Tier 2 != lower tier. Tier two is just lower than tier 1.

You're one of my strongest townreads because your continued posting is making it progressively more obvious this is the same mollie I saw in Pinkmin Mafia.

[mastin2]

Nacho, there is only one scenario in which I would see your interactions as town. So I'll be blunt and ask.

Are you a mason?

[mastin2]

Okay. So.

-Nick wagon looks good.
-Nick MAY be town, though.
-Or I COULD be wrong on my reads.
-...But I don't think I am.
-So I think that nick's a scum-approved thrown-under-the-bus wagon to try and save their own asses.
-That said, I also think it's a quickwagon.
-Which means that they want the day over. Now. Rather than later.
-This is why I'm not voting.

Right now, I want everyone to speak their peace. We shouldn't quicklynch unless we all agree that everything productive to be said has been said for today. And at this stage, I am questioning if it has.

[mastin2]

Who are the scum saving their asses?

Hmm...

I haven't the slightest idea.

Maybe it's the elephant in the room?

[mastin2]

So, stats on the wagon-nick-to-end-the-day:
Andrius (in favor)
Venmar
nickthename (against, obv)
BeautyAndTheBeast (in favor)
Nachomamma8 (in favor)
Desperado
notscience (in favor)
zMuffinMan (against?)
Faster than Light (in favor)
Mutleyddmc
Aj the Epic (in favor)
TiphaineDeath (against)
Trust Fund

Haven't posted since my post about the nick wagon ending the day:
BROseidon (but is on the wagon, so presumably, in favor)
Ghostlin
Mac
Malakittens

So, basically, we're waiting on those four to come in and state their opinion on the matter.

I would also like to hear from Trust Fund, Mutley, Desperado, and Venmar on their thoughts--both on the nick wagon in general, and on how it's being advocated to end the day.

Furthermore, I want those against it to explain if it's because of a read on nick, or because of the wagon itself being quick and ending the day prematurely. (Or both, or neither, but do elaborate.)

[mastin2]

-Which means that they want the day over. Now. Rather than later.

Do you think that scum have daytalk, because this sentence implies that you think they do.

Nope! Quite the opposite, I firmly believe that they lack daytalk. Just because they can't talk to each other in a QT and SAY, "Hey, guys, this day needs to end quickly before we're royally screwed over", doesn't mean they can't individually come to that conclusion. (Or use in-thread cues to communicate the same. Which, by the way, I fully believe to be present--would have to double-check for surez, but they definitely seem like they're there with Andrius and Nacho.)

[mastin2]

By the way, Andrius remains wrong.

There's a difference between wanting nick dead and wanting nick dead

now, immediately, as in "should have happened five days ago"

. That's the difference between "in favor" and "against". For instance, me? Against--at the moment. Not because I think nick is town. Because I think ending the day immediately is a bad idea.

Thus the need for the clarification. I'm asking the people who haven't made it clear yet to clarify, and also those against it if it's because they think nick's town or (like me) they don't want the day to end, yet.

[mastin2]

Oh, and BROseidon pushing for Venmar to be scum is a further indication that BROseidon is scum. (Who knows, at this rate, I might actually be wrong on nick and that it's Nacho/Andrius/Malakittens/BROseidon.) There is literally a 0% chance for Venmar to be scum. I'd lynch a cop innocent before I'd lynch Venmar.

[mastin2]

(Note, though, that 'might actually be wrong' != "reversed my read on". It just means the order has been shifted around a bit. Most likely to least likely, we've got:
Malakittens
Nachomamma8
BROseidon
nickthename
Andrius.

BROseidon and nickthename are largely interchangeable. Which means that, yes. Andrius remains right now, AT THE MOMENT, my pick for 'least-likely-to-flip-scum-of-these-five'.)

[mastin2]

@Mastin If Andrius and I are both town, who do you think is the last scum?

Both town? Hmm. Well, then. In that case, it'd be the bottom of my town-list--Desperado.

Mala, Venmar, AJ, Mastin.

Well, 1/4 isn't

too

terribly bad... (But serious, Jiffy. You need to up your game. I'm not scum. Venmar isn't scum. Aj's not as certainly not-scum, but is a pretty dang solid townread with his content.)

Also HOW THE FUCK is this thing not dead yet?

Vote: Mac

NO, VENMAR, NO! STOP LOSING SIGHT OF THE TARGET! D:

There is literally a 0% chance for Venmar to be scum. I'd lynch a cop innocent before I'd lynch Venmar.

You tell me this but you know I can't take your word for it right?

VOTE: Nachomamma8.

Here's the problem, though, Nacho. The town-you

would

take my word for it. The town-you WOULD be trusting the town-me (WHICH YOU ADMITTED! You flat-out have made it explicit that this is my town self) on my read. The LACK of accepting it is itself a scumtell from you. This isn't some lousy "I am town; you can trust me" statement. This is practically the Mastin Gambit, and yet, you've brushed it off.

To put things simply--this is not you, with your own reads, taking input from townreads that you respect the ability of, but ultimately having your own reads. (The town you.) This is you, with your own agenda, trying to manipulate others into following it. (The scum you.)

[mastin2]

VOTE: Malakittens.

So, I'll be honest about nick. He could be town, he could be scum. That's dangerous, because my read on Rach was much the same. Furthermore, when it comes to his lynch, it's not a bad one. If he's scum, we get a lot of info and it's another scumbag down. If he's town, then those who have obsessed over him get a chance to re-evaluate their reads and get things right, along with a ton of info.

So why, then, am I following him?

Because while he could be either, right now, I lean towards town. His reads list and the followthrough might not be much, but it's enough for me, at least for today.

[mastin2]

Ghostlin is awesome.
Desp not so much.

Yo, Ghostlin. Can I have a reads list from ya, again? I think we can synch them together at this point. 'Specially given that you're apparently calling out Desp and I'm doing much the same.

[mastin2]

GAH. Lost my post. Was almost finished with the Ghostlin section, when I accidentally closed the tab. ;_;

I am going to get close to mastin if he will let me. that is simply all there is to it.

You're not doing a very good job, considering I've been reaching out to you for most of the game and you've been rejecting me. But seriously. I'm town. I want to work with you. I'll let you get close to me, if you let me get close to you. So work with me. (Sorry. This was worded better the first time. :/)

Venmar:

I'm willing to listen to you about a potential scuMac (especially given the defense of Malakittens), but I don't think that Mac's a realistic lynch candidate for today. Talk to me tomorrow about it, and we'll see.

Ghostlin:

So, to simplify things... You've got townreads on Muffin, FTL, notscience, myself, BeautyAndTheBeast, sorta-Nacho, sorta-Mac, Sorta-Mutley, and sorta-Andrius.
You've got a null-read on AJ and scumreads on nick, Desperado, Trust Fund, TiphaineDeath, Venmar, and Malakittens. Is this correct?

If so, then I can help ya. Move Venmar and TD outside of your scum-list, for a start, and we can hash out the rest of the reads.

My gambit has three phases to it. Phase one: We lynch Malakittens.

Vote: Malakittens

I'm liking this plan. I think I know what you're getting at, and to be honest, I don't think it'll work as well as you think it will if I'm correct, but I like it all the same because it gets Malakittens lynched. (Though, of course, I certainly hope the plan works as well as you want it to. That would be awesome.)

It makes me sad that you don't want to work with me, because I want to work with you

I'm not working with you because I think you're scum.

Buuuuuuuuut, I'm no scumhunting god, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. What in my approach do you see as similar to yours? Why do you think having a similar approach to you makes me someone to work with? Do you think our reads are compatible?

As a start. (I had better questions the first time. )

Mastin is town, leave him alone.

Why is it that (aside from Andrius) everyone I've called scum has reversed their read on me (except Nacho, who never had me as scum) from scum to town? Like, seriously. Nick, BRO, and now you.

Nick, now he actually explained it. No such reason for the reversal from you. (Bleh. This was worded better the first time. )

[mastin2]

mastin
how come a few pages ago you were talking about how town i was or whatever, and now you are entertaining the prospect? talking about some defence of malakittens who i've been pressing as my top scumread alll day long?

You're near the bottom of my townlist, along-side Desperado. In other words, can slip into scum fairly easily. Your defense of Malakittens is present in your interactions with FTL, which heavily discouraged the plan to lynch Malakittens.

@ mastin
okay lets get close.
when did mala have you as scum cos I missed it? what do you see as being townier in nicky over mala? venny is reminding me of a combo of you and ap in gears of war, what do you think?

<3

Malakittens had plenty calling me scum. In fact,

nearly every mention Malakittens has of me D1 is of me being scum.

Control-F my name.

Spoiler: Her calling me scum

Mastin's post gave me a bad feel.

Herro Jedi Mind Trick that we call Mastin's post 448! Thanks for putting a bad taste in my mouth about you.

Mastin you aren't confirmed town, shut up.

If FTL is for sure scum then Mastin is probably a partner.

If you think I'm scum reading Mastin just because he's defending you.. You have another thing coming. I already presented why he pinged gut when I was catching up. Mastin and you are probably both scum and I'll figure out who the others are once I have solid flips to look at.

I agree with the Mastin scum read. I'm null on Rach and the rest I'm in disagreement, Even though I'm null-leaning town on SoS. I was townreading TF and this hasn't gone away because there was no reason for scum-TF to say my "reaching out tell in regards to Fery" is a null tell>

Main reason why I haven't voted Mastin. I think he's scum, but not for the whole "5 scum thing".

brb checking new links and then moving onto Mastin.

I have a scum read on Mastin and Andy.

There are other times when she makes other remarks against me, too, like the remark about me keeping votes off of Skull and maybe the "holy shit" one, too.
...And then, come D2, I'm suddenly town for no apparent reason. Malakittens admitted to not being able to read me on D1,

I'm shit at either meta'ing Mastin in general or his play makes me feel it's the same. He self-meta's as both alignments. He's over confident as both alignments. He does gambits as town. He uses ':p' too much. He tries to confirm his alignment as both alignments with meta. He's unreadable to me.

...But is somehow adamant now that I'm town.

Malakittens's play is basically one massive ball of inconsistency and bad interactions all-around. She's provided no really useful content, and simply hasn't been townposting at all. In contrast, nick's posting looks like it could have a (pardon me if this is incorrect usage) town trajectory to it--sure, yeah! Could be scum-motivated. But has a significantly-higher chance compared to Malakittens of being town in nature. In contrast to what you're saying about nick active-lurking...I'm not seeing active lurking. I'm seeing good, solid content posts from him. Could they be scum-posts? Yeah! But are they? I currently don't think so, no. Compared to Malakittens, who actually

does

have a lot which looks like active lurking. As just a brief summary of why nick's more town than Malakittens to me.

You're dead-on about Venmar, which is why he's town.

[mastin2]

Derp.

borkjerfkin, our good Mod:

Fix the missing bracket in my first Malakittens quote, please.

[mastin2]

however nicky only got super active when varsoon highlighted what he wanted to hear from him. what do you think about that.

Could be town, could be scum, difficult to say for sure.

[mastin2]

[9] TiphaineDeath (Venmar, zMuffinMan, nickthename, BeautyAndTheBeast, Mac, Ghostlin, Faster Than Light, Trust Fund, [nhammen/Malakittens])

For the record, people seem to forget that nhammen supported this wagon but critically, avoided joining it.

And since it's been brought up:
Venmar, BeautyAndTheBeast, Ghostlin, and FTL (in no particular order) are definitely not scum, with Trust Fund and zMuffinMan both similarly being eliminated.

That leaves {nick, Mac, nhammen/Malakittens} left. If there's scum on the wagon, it's in those names. (Which, again, is a good piece of evidence for lynching Malakittens.)

[mastin2]

Off-topic, buuuuut...

If scum manages to play well enough to keep an IC around till lylo, ns or not, I think they deserve the win for being that good.

Or even better, endgaming the IC. Nothing more awesome than that.


Now, on-topic...

Ghostlin: So, to simplify things... You've got townreads on Muffin, FTL, notscience, myself, BeautyAndTheBeast, sorta-Nacho, sorta-Mac, Sorta-Mutley, and sorta-Andrius. You've got a null-read on AJ and scumreads on nick, Desperado, Trust Fund, TiphaineDeath, Venmar, and Malakittens. Is this correct?

Essentially correct, yes. BRO fell off again. BRO's a null--I can't say with certainty he's scum, but I can't cite any kind of behavior or post that's makes me fucking secure about BRO, and he's neither pissed me off or reached out to me. This in and of itself bothers me, kind of like AJ.

Alright. I'm willing to work with you minus Ven and TD particularly since they're minor reads--they're more things that are bothering me than 'rawr, scum'. My problem is a lack of certainty, not necessarily a lack of fucking consistency, I want all the scum dead. So let's hash this out.

How do you feel about the Mala/Nick pushes, and which one do you feel I should be pushing more. I've been focused on Mala most of today and I'm nervous at the Nick L-1 only because of self-hammer/scum-hammer before he squeals all the information or we finish talking this day.

Good with both, but prefer Mala over Nick. I'm more interested in the Desperado read, in particular, and also the Trust Fund one (though not as much there). Plus, more on AJ. Oh, and the townreads on Nacho, Mac, and Andrius.

Bro's case on me is BS and fabricated in every way possible. He's probably being obtuse on purpose since anyone with a brain could read my interaction with RM as town.

you know when it's all said and done.
i'm probably gonna vote you until you're dead.

Again, I'll emphasize this. A town-Nacho would be trusting my townread on Venmar. (For that matter, if a town BROseidon wanted to work with me, I think he would, too. ) He isn't. Thus, he's scum.

Really, now. This isn't a scumtell that's applicable to a lot of people, which makes it all the more potent when it

does

apply. Nacho's not synching up with me at all. The town-Nacho has gone out of his way to hash out reads with me before. We coordinated them, had lengthy talks about them, in games previous to this one. For instance, Mob Money (or was it Mob Justice? The one I was town in, modded by T-Bone. ) had me at times be paranoid of Nacho, sure--but even then, even despite the paranoia, we worked together. Here, though? Here...he's brushing me off and ignoring me.

I'd be ecstatic if Nacho were town. But this. is. not. the. town-Nacho. I. know.

Hey, Mastin, why is this guy Town again?

Because I said so.

[6] mastin2 (Venmar, Trust Fund, BROseidon, nickthename, TiphaineDeath, Skullduggery)
^Since it was brought up. I actually don't see this as a scum-driven wagon. The only probable names on there for scum are BROseidon and nick. Trust Fund is

theoretically

possible, but not very likely. The other names are town.

[mastin2]

Why are you reading him as town.

Because I am.

Near the end of D1, Venmar had a reach-out to me, and me to him. We came to an understanding of one another, and realized we were both town. And you can trust me on that.

[mastin2]

Not much to say at the moment. Just that Muffin's wrong; I

am

revising my reads, if he cared to pay attention to my posts, and am listening intently.

[mastin2]

NACHO, GIVE ME A FULL CLAIM.

Allow me to channel Majiffy:
No.

Problem is, Nacho. The town-you won't claim without reason, but FTL confirming you is a dang-good reason for the town-you to claim. V's right--the only reason you wouldn't claim is if you've got something to hide.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Mac.

[mastin2]

SCUM
mastin

RachMarie

nickthename

Venmar

Andy, there's a problem with your scum list. Here, let me give you a hint.

SCUM

nickthename

You are not SpyreX, and this is not a bastard game.

Though yes mastin being a body would be awesome right now.

Oh, it's happening, but it'll be via scum nightkill tonight.

VOTE: Mac.

This doesn't seem like you. What's your angle on Mac?

I was looking for something. Specific reactions, in fact. I've got what I need, now, sooooo...
UNVOTE: Mac. (Mac's town.)

VOTE: Malakittens.
(Mala's not. )

[mastin2]

TOWN:
notscience
Venmar
Mac
TiphaineDeath
Ghostlin
Trust Fund

Faster Than Light
zMuffinMan
Skullduggery/Mutley
Aj The Epic

Tiers 1 and 2. (Trust Fund is borderline 2, but I'm listing them as 1.)

What does that leave?
{Andrius, BROseidon, Nachomamma8, Malakittens, Desperado}

Those five. I can equally guarantee all the remaining scum are in those. five. names.

Now I don't think they're all scum, but four of them pretty much have to be.

Slightly updated. You'll note that Desp has been bumped down quite a few notches, and that Mac's in my tier 1 town-list, now. There are other minor changes, but you get the idea.

Scumreads are, roughly, strongest to weakest:
Malakittens
Nachomamma8
BROseidon
Desperado
Andrius

...Though honestly, the last three are pretty dang interchangeable. BROseidon and Desperado definitely are. And I can't tell with Andrius at all.

[mastin2]

Unvote

Why isn't she?

POE, lack of towniness, back interactions, basically, the stuff in my iso and all the other various cases against her.

[mastin2]

how many scum do you think were on/off the nick wagon yesterday?

[10] nickthename (Nachomamma8, BROseidon, Aj The Epic, Trust Fund, Desperado)
[4] Malakittens (Ghostlin, nickthename, mastin2, zMuffinMan)
[2] BROseidon (Malakittens, Venmar)
[1] Mac (TiphaineDeath)
[1] Andrius (Andrius)

Removing the conftown/solid townreads, you get half the wagon remaining. Nick was a scum-driven wagon.

Now all the names on there can't be scum. Heck, I wouldn't put money on it being more than 3. But it was scum-driven for sure.
Aj's someone I can't figure out for certain, and is nullish/town. Trust Fund is someone who I've had as town. Leaving {Nacho, BRO, Desperado}.

Oh, and by the way. This raises the question--if nick was a scum-driven wagon, why did they drive the nick wagon so hard?

The obvious answer, here, is that Malakittens (the counterwagon to nick) is scum. So, you want new evidence, here it is. (And by the way--the only name on Malakittens I don't consider conftown is Muffin, who is still obvtown, sooooo...town-driven wagon that failed to go through, versus scum-driven wagon that DID go through.

[mastin2]

And by the way--while Andrius is still technically a null, I am going to go out on a limb and say he's town. In particular,

One off and the rest was on it.

I don't think Malakittens is lying, here. I think she, as scum, is telling the truth. Yeah! Could be misleading. But I don't think it is. The nick wagon

looks

scum-driven, and I

would

expect most of the scum to be on, and on top of that, there aren't many names off the nick wagon who even CAN be scum, sooooooo, I fully believe her statement.

Just that it's her that's the scum.

[mastin2]

... Sigh Mastin. Let's ignore me asking you to stop death tunneling me. I'm not scum. This is really getting old and annoying. It's these type of things in games that make me want to stop playing.

Also someone said TD is conf-town, how is that? I can understand TF, but not TD. I have a town read on TD, but I'm not going to sit here and call him conf-town though.

Problem is, Mala, there's literally nobody else off the nick wagon who can realistically be scum. This isn't a death-tunnel. This is pure. simple. logic and POE.
I'm not scum, Ghostlin isn't scum, nick flipped town, Venmar is town, TiphaineDeath is town. That leaves you, Muffin, and Andrius. Muffin's a decently-solid townread of mine, and I'm beginning to come around finally to Andrius being town as well. There's really nobody it can be other than you. (Heck, the Rach wagon's similar. I fully believe most of the scum bussed her.)

And your pushing of TD not being conftown yet having TD as a townread is even more evidence against you.

Simply put, I feel the game's been put into a lockdown and all we have to figure out is the remaining three scum who're on the nick wagon among the five names I listed. (Nacho obviously being one of them. Leaning towards Desp being another. But {BRO, Aj, Trust Fund}, I'm not as convinced on.) I legitimately feel like this could be (aside from the nick lynch as a necessary sacrifice to expose the scum) a perfect town win if we can fully sort this out.

[mastin2]

i'm curious as to why AJ isn't jumping for joy that mala is a viable lynch.

Actually, I was going to before reading through the full day, but her approach seemed greatly altered. I was going to sit on it a while. The exchange between her and bro was interesting in the fact that it made bro look awful and mala look townie when put in a vacuum. I've been re-reading her and sitting for today just to make sure I'm not going confirmation bias on her with Rach.

Uh-huh.




Muffin, you're right. It's not {Nacho, Desp, BRO}.
It's {Nacho, Desp, Aj}.

[mastin2]

Also, muffin and mastin, you are scumreading both me and Mala. You would have to conclude that I've been hard-bussing the slot all game. Is this correct, and would you still push for me tomorrow if Mala flips scum?

Maybe. Depends on the circumstances and how things play out.

You look worse than Trust Fund, I'll give you that, but Aj's abysmally-bad attitude today compared to your more-reasonable (though still not great) attitude leaves the playing field more open with regards to which of you is scum.

Also, it's difficult to tell for sure (Beauty and the Beast didn't give a proper reads list in most of their later iso--yeah, sure, it's there, but so far back that it's basically obsolete), but I think they had Aj as scum and you as increasingly town, so there's also that in your favor. (Though, in a counter-point, SoS had the reverse be true, with you as scum and Aj as town.)

Though, purely going off of hopes (and not off of evidence), given the choice between you being scum and Aj being scum, I'd definitely hope for it to be Aj, and that admittedly might be biasing my read.

[mastin2]

Also a point in your favor is the fact that people who have scumread you are living longer than they should. (Such as me.)


Side-note, but I just remembered: mollie knows Nacho. She knows Nacho just as well as fferyllt does, if memory serves me. (Or maybe better. Idunno. mollie and ffery can argue in the dead QT I guess over the subject. ) And she died N2.

If, as I suspect, Nacho's the one spearheading the kills, I will say once more that he's killing people he knows will figure him out sooner rather than later. That'd certainly explain why people who by all rights should be dead (such as myself) have lived for so long: because Nacho needed to take out the players who he knows can read him better, roles be damned.

[mastin2]

Put another way--

Kill one person intimately familiar with Nacho, could be coincidence.
Kill two people intimately familiar with Nacho, almost certainly by design.

Regardless of Malakittens's flip (which I'm 95% certain is a scum-flip), Nacho is also scum and should be tomorrow's lynch. Especially if someone else familiar with him (e.g., me ) dies.

[mastin2]

THE FUK ARE YOU DOING IN SEATTLE
AND NOT LETTING ME KNOW

I take it you live in Washington, too. (And I'm guessing Spokane from your location?)

BnB's reads are fragmented everywhere, but I'll try to piece them together.

I have that in my QT. I found:
BeautyAndTheBeast had
-Nacho as suspicious
-Malakittens as maybe-suspicious
-Andy as a degenerating read
-Bro increasingly town
-Mac as decently-town
-Desp as a non-presence
-townread on Muffin
-AJ as scum?

...But it's hard to say for sure, because you're right. It's scattered. (I did this in reverse-chronological order, newest first and working backwards. But I didn't get it all. I basically went through the last page of their iso to get this, but by then, it was becoming increasingly hard to pin down.)

Dear Cabd,

Ghostlin is town. I'd lay down my slot on it.

Indeed.


Hey, Desp.

Side-note, but I just remembered: mollie knows Nacho. She knows Nacho just as well as fferyllt does, if memory serves me. (Or maybe better. Idunno. mollie and ffery can argue in the dead QT I guess over the subject. ) And she died N2.

If, as I suspect, Nacho's the one spearheading the kills, I will say once more that he's killing people he knows will figure him out sooner rather than later. That'd certainly explain why people who by all rights should be dead (such as myself) have lived for so long: because Nacho needed to take out the players who he knows can read him better, roles be damned.

Put another way--
Kill one person intimately familiar with Nacho, could be coincidence.
Kill two people intimately familiar with Nacho, almost certainly by design.

Regardless of Malakittens's flip (which I'm 95% certain is a scum-flip), Nacho is also scum and should be tomorrow's lynch. Especially if someone else familiar with him (e.g., me ) dies.

This analysis seems really shallow for you Mastin. Nacho has reason to be afraid of fferry and mollie, they are dead, ergo Nacho is scum? The hole in this logic is wide enough to push a car through.

Just lynch me. I'm a liability in LyLo anyways (if I were to make it that far) since I'm mislynch bait for scum.

I readily admit that I can't read Mala, and this sorry-sack routine that she's been putting on the majority of the game is throwing me off even more. I can't parse the level of resignation as put-on or genuine.

Just thought I'd let you know. After we lynch Malakittens (which we

are

doing today).
And after we lynch Nacho tomorrow (which we ARE doing tomorrow).

We're lynching you the day after.

Regardless of Malakittens's alignment, Nacho is scum. And regardless of both of their alignments, you're also incredibly-scummy. If as I suspect both are scum, that pretty much seals the deal.

@ NS: Duh. Join me on this

Vote: FTL

Focus, Mastin, focus. We can't lynch this today, tempting as it is. We'll have to wait 'til D5.


For the record--this is not what I remember of a town-Mala being mislynched. Granted, I don't have much experience with a town-Malakittens being mislynched (Mind-reader Mafia is the only one to come to mind, and I don't really remember it all too well), but I distinctly recall that a town-Mala being mislynched puts in :effort: which I am entirely lacking in seeing from her. Yeah, she'll have AtE as well, but she gives a much greater fight than what I've been seeing from her.

[mastin2]

Mod: if an X-shot role is roleblocked, is their shot refunded?

Wayne, you should check to make sure your shot was used up. I'm running through the possibilities, between roleblocker (a fairly likely scum role in the game), *OTHERS REDACTED*, but needless to say, aside from the roleblocker possibility, none of these bode well for Aj at all.
(Oh, and even in the case of a roleblocker, still not great. )

[mastin2]

Mastin, why would wayne being blocked bode poorly for AJ?

Well, there's a minor logical jump involved. If wayne's slot was blocked, then they were blocked for a reason. If they were blocked for a reason, then it's typically because they had a reason to be blocked. One reason to block a claimed 1-shot vig who's taken a shot is that you fear scum will be hit and the vig was lying about being 1-shot.

Considering that there's about no chance of you being scum, I mine as well just claim. I'm a one shot bullet proof townie, who actively tried to get shot night 1 to remove that benefit. I wanted to remove any ambiguity because I had/have strong reasons to believe a traitor exists in this game and my role's job was to add a counterbalance to it. Not only do I have a strong reason to suspect much, but this is generally the key reason a bullet proof townie is added in (I can point a few games I was in recently with the same role).

Unfortunately, I received no notification to recognize anyone having removed this from me. I can, however, show a trail of crumbs I left to try to get this removed and how it has affected my logical progression through the game.

I'm inclined to believe this. It can be a scum (fake)claim, but the WAY this was claimed seems town to me.

I take it you live in Washington, too. (And I'm guessing Spokane from your location?)

"Too"?
YOU LIVE IN WASHINGTON?
Yes, Spokane. Well, sort of.

Yup. I live between Snohomish (the city! not the county!) and Monroe, in what I believe is called "The Foothills". My address is considered Snohomish, but I have much stronger associations with Monroe. (Mainly, because there's more in Monroe for me to be attached to. )

Regardless of Malakittens's alignment, Nacho is scum.

So why don't we lynch Nacho FIRST, since he's scum regardless of her alignment and thereby don't waste time lynching someone you don't KNOW to be scum?

Because she's almost certainly scum, too. I checked Mind-reader, and her play there was totally different. Plus, I have the support to lynch Malakittens; if I tried to lynch Nacho, I might get half-way there, but would only divide the wagons between Malakittens and Nacho. While two scum wagons is awesome, two scum wagons with neither going through is not.

Basically, Nacho's scum. Malakittens is scum. Desperado is scum. All independently of one another. However, their interactions make them even strongerly be scum. We can only lynch one of them at a time, and Malakittens has more support today, sooooooo...Malakittens comes first.

[mastin2]

Yup. I live between Snohomish (the city! not the county!) and Monroe, in what I believe is called "The Foothills". My address is considered Snohomish, but I have much stronger associations with Monroe. (Mainly, because there's more in Monroe for me to be attached to. )

I only ask because there's this thing we call seattlemeet that happened every so often. The more I think about it, the more I think it should happen today.

Eh, I'd go if I could fit it into my schedule, but as a fair warning, I'm pretty much nothing like what you'd expect me to be. Sloppy, unkempt, long wavy hair, a goat beard, an overgrown mustache, sideburns that have grown too far, skinny-framed, etc. I seriously think people believe me to be a druggie because of my overall aesthetic. Oh, and then there's the voice. You probably read my posts the way my internal voice is, mid-ranged with a hint of optimism. My actual voice is a fairly-monotonous low voice, making me sound nothing like you'd think I would. And my whole personality's different, too. You'd probably never be able to tell that Brian D. Lewis and mastin2 are the same person if not for me telling you.

Mala, Ghost is town.

Why?

Because WE said so.

Mastin, why is Venmar town?

Because he is. That's as much as you're getting, and as much as you're ever getting.

TiphaineDeath and Mac are also both town, too.

Also, your scum-list is way too short. And there's no explanations for any of your reads. They're just flung out there.

Please do point out to why it's different.

My memory was correct: effort.

This game, you've given none. That game, you gave a ton.

Like, seriously. Difference between night and day. That game, you fought bitterly to the end. You were AtEing, yes. Begging, pleading, for townreads to show reason and logic. But you were doing more than just the AtE. You were putting in analysis. You gave reasons for you being town--some of them were meta, yes, but you didn't rely on just meta; you gave strong, in-thread evidence that was fairly convincing. Heck, if I weren't scum, it WOULD have convinced me that you were town, there. And in addition to that solid defense you put on, you put up an incredible offense. You pushed scumreads with some degree of certainty, and only in desperation changed one of said scumreads to include a former townread.

There's literally none of that in this game at all.
Seriously, Read her iso, guys. Read that game, and tell me she's shown any of it in here, other than the AtE.

[mastin2]

Wayne, my answer's not going to change, nor will Andrius's. You're town. So just trust us. We know what we're doing. Ghostlin, Venmar, TiphaineDeath, and Mac (among others) are all town. Seriously. You don't need to know why. They just are. You think Malakittens is scum, right? Then help us lynch her.

What was scum Mala's plan here? She's been a helpless damsel since she replaced in, and her AtE and lack of effort have both only intensified since getting called out on it. She doesn't seem interested in doing anything to work against her death.

Simple: survive, and try not to give away her scumbuddies.

Counterpoint: what the HECK is a town-Mala doing giving this game the treatment she has? This AtE and lack of effort make no sense from the town-her, who would be trying desperately to figure it all out and leave something meaningful. I haven't seen that at all. All I've seen is AtE which looks like play to survive just a little bit longer.

Well, there's a minor logical jump involved. If wayne's slot was blocked, then they were blocked for a reason. If they were blocked for a reason, then it's typically because they had a reason to be blocked. One reason to block a claimed 1-shot vig who's taken a shot is that you fear scum will be hit and the vig was lying about being 1-shot.

Except I ISO'd Mutt to see if he left any indication of who he'd have targeted next. I found nothing. He spent all of day two with "I SHOT MY WHOLE LOAD ON SAKI LAWL."

So why would scum be afraid of him hitting again if 1) He'd claimed 1-shot and 2) There was no indication of who he'd target next if he were lying, and would thus be more likely to hit town than scum.

My thoughts exactly. Hey Mastin, why did you ignore this in 4116?

Because it wasn't worth answering? There was a logical jump. That logical jump was that Mutt would have shot scum, and that Aj could have been the target. I didn't bother to go back and look to see if there was anything. (Apparently, there wasn't.) The answer was in the post being quoted by BROseidon already. It was an assumption with little backing.

[mastin2]

Side-note, but I know that Nacho/Muttley have a history. If anyone was likely to figure out that Muttley had a second shot, it's most likely to have been Nacho.

Sooooo, if Muttley was roleblocked, it's evidence against Nacho. Apparently there were no hints, but that doesn't mean the scum didn't figure it out. If there were hints to it being Aj, that'd be evidence for Aj being scum. If there aren't any hints (which apparently there aren't) and yet he was STILL blocked despite indicating only being one-shot, the answer is:
Why would a scum roleblocker bother blocking an allegedly 1-shot vig, when the scum have better targets to choose for their roleblock?

The only answer I can think of is that the scum knew he wasn't a 1-shot vig, and feared he would hit scum with the second shot. And, again, Muttley having a history with Nacho points to Nacho being the most likely to make this deduction.

[mastin2]

Wayne, my answer's not going to change, nor will Andrius's. You're town. So just trust us. We know what we're doing. Ghostlin, Venmar, TiphaineDeath, and Mac (among others) are all town. Seriously. You don't need to know why. They just are.

That's as much an answer as you're ever getting, wayne. I'm sorry. It just is. If you've got an issue on me when it comes to a player outside those names, go ahead. Tell me about it. I'll address that concern. But when it comes to those names, this is as much elaboration as you're getting. Period. They are town, they will flip town, and no matter what type of suspicion you hold on them, that's not going to change the fact that they are town. And I'm sorry if you can't see that. But it's the truth. So there's nothing more to say.

They are town because they are town. Simple as that.

[mastin2]

Oh, wait, that wasn't your question.

The reason I'm thinking you were roleblocked is
-You claimed your slot shot Aj.
-Aj claimed 1-shot bulletproof.
-HOWEVER, Aj claimed that as far as he knows, his bp vest was not used up.
-Thus, the possibilities are
* Aj is lying.
* The mod neglected to inform Aj that his vest was used. (

Aj, I expect you to ask the mod about this if you haven't already.

)
* Neither of you are lying and both are telling the truth: something prevented your shot from hitting his vest.

In the third scenario, said something would, almost certainly, be a scum roleblocker.

[mastin2]

Considering that there's about no chance of you being scum, I mine as well just claim. I'm a one shot bullet proof townie, who actively tried to get shot night 1 to remove that benefit. I wanted to remove any ambiguity because I had/have strong reasons to believe a traitor exists in this game and my role's job was to add a counterbalance to it. Not only do I have a strong reason to suspect much, but this is generally the key reason a bullet proof townie is added in (I can point a few games I was in recently with the same role).

Unfortunately, I received no notification to recognize anyone having removed this from me.

I can, however, show a trail of crumbs I left to try to get this removed and how it has affected my logical progression through the game.

The relevant section that Nacho conveniently snipped from the quote.

Again, would like to emphasize. Assuming both are truthful (which, admittedly, is not a certainty when it comes to Aj's half), then something prevented the shot from hitting the vest. Said something most probably being a roleblocker.

Make sense now?

[mastin2]

I'll take you up on that. Not AJ? It's gotta be Venmar.

Oh, it

could

be Aj. Don't get me wrong. Totally haven't eliminated him from being scum. I just don't think he is currently, and even if he were, he's not a high priority.

But Venmar most certainly is not scum.

Malakittens is, through multiple factors, nearly-certainly scum. In theory she could be town, but in practice, there's virtually no scenario where she fits as being town, and an incredible amount where she's scum. (And, no, this is not confirmation bias. Would love it if she could be town, but she simply...isn't.)

[mastin2]

Yeah well I been around. >.>

So I'm going to claim since we have like 5 days and this wagon somewhat needs to die off me. If you do chose to lynch me then fine, but you are taking a PR with you.

I'm Elhaym Van Houten, Battle Mage of the Nisan Alliance. I'm a Town JK.

Night 1 I JK'd AJ.
Night 2 I JK'd Mac.

Yeeeeeeeeeeah, this is bullshit. Just thought I'd let you know. I'm 99% sure this claim is a lie.

[mastin2]

OH WAIT.
I just remembered something.

I am almost certain mala is lying about the JKs.
mastin should know why.

Nah. You have it right. Malakittens is lying about being a town jailkeeper. She might be a mafia roleblocker, she might be a mafia goon, heck, she might even be a mafia jailkeeper for all I know. But there's not a chance in hell that she's actually a town JK.

[mastin2]

1. Aj The Epic - town
2. Andrius - town
4. BROseidon - Conflicted, gut says scum; evidence says town.
5. Desperado - Haven't decided.
6. Faster Than Light - Leaning scum. See Ghostlin read
7. Ghostlin - Town if FTL is scum, scum if FTL is town.
8. Mac - Town
9. mastin2 - Town
10. Nachomamma8 - Still null
12. Malakittens - Town <3
14. notscience, Midori Uzuki - This is a given
16. waynegg - probably town
18. TiphaineDeath - probably town
19. Trust Fund - Town
20. dopog - trustin' of Mastin's read on Venmar - town, gut says not sure. I want to see more from Dopoq.
21. zMuffinMan - Leaning Town

Desp and Nacho both scum in the nulls. That means the other nulls are probably town. (Outside chance of BROseidon.) It doesn't take much of a genius to realize one scum in the town-names, and at this stage, looks like Aj.

[mastin2]

did you draw scum?

Yes, Nacho did.

I do hope that Venmar's replacement is competent enough to help us with Nacho tomorrow. I'm nearly certain Nacho's scum, and we're going to need all the help we can get to get him lynched.

[mastin2]

TD is a solid choice for scum in townreads.

Except TiphaineDeath is conf.town.

[mastin2]

heh, you definitely were right about venmar though.

Yes, Venmar's slot is town. (And I'm praying the replacement is at least slightly as competent as Venmar was. )

But I really don't see how the town-you wouldn't be trusting me on TiphaineDeath also being town.

[mastin2]

hey guys....

...I decided to crack and I WILL be doing a Xenosaga game. Setup is in the final stages of creation, and then I will be looking for reviewers. Hopefully will be in signups in maybe ~3 weeks time at most.

Oh, HELL yes. /pre-in.