Open 521: Jungle Republic (Alright. We'll call it a draw)

[Alduskkel]

baldeagle wagon sucks, I see no hypocrisy (Boom's vote) nor does it make sense for him to lie about TIP's meta.

TK and YU are both lurking lurkers but it's difficult to say if they're scummy because they have RL reasons.

I would call elle town except scum have incentive to scumhunt, too. Still, I don't really want to lynch one of the few people posting good content in this game.

I agree with baldeagle that Om's white knighting is suspicious. Additionally, despite the fact that Krazy is one of his "strongest scum reads" Om isn't voting him (or anyone else). Also, my gut says Om is scum.

Vote: Om of the Nom

Also, it's pretty surprising how many ADD/ADHD people are/were in this game. Now I see why people complain that it's overdiagnosed.

[Alduskkel]

I am curious to see what baldeagle says in response.

TIP, any other scum reads?

[Alduskkel]

Okay, elle, you're one of my strongest townreads in this game. Work with me here.
Why did your gut ping on Gnomeo? Do you still think BOOM is scum? Can I have your two strongest scumreads and townreads please?

Krazy, you're another of my strongest

scumreads

.
Do you actually think that BOOM should be pushed for the quickhammer? As far as you've said, you think that it's a scummy thing regardless of Saki's meta but you haven't made a point to push it either. Can I also have your two strongest scumreads and townreads?

Sorry for the low activity lately but I've been quite emotionally unstable and as a result I've not been posting much. Consider this my attempt to get back in the game.

So was the bolded a typo then, Om?

[Alduskkel]

Aldus, is it not hypocritical to vote for someone for doing the exact same things that that person did?

I think baldeagle got off the wagon at the time when I would expect someone genuinely trying to scumhunt (which, granted, is not a hard towntell in this game) would.

Also, if Yggdra's town, then, from their perspective, there are 9 other players with 5 scum in that group. That means you need FOUR townreads to use PoE. However, if they're scum, then they need 5 townreads, because there's only 4 scum in the group. And of course Yggdra said they needed 5 townreads... scumslip? Not sure if Boom caught it too, not sure exactly what they're saying in post 500.

[Alduskkel]

If there were 13 players (and we had 11 now), then that means that that there's one more town player, meaning YU needs one more town read to use PoE, which is consistent with what they said earlier. The real question is, is it more likely that YU thought we started with 13 players or that they scumslipped?

[Alduskkel]

The whole scumslip thing?

Here, let me summarize that.

L: sweet I have 4 townreads and I need 1 more.
A: um there's only 5 town left. Is that a scumslip?
B: hell yeah. But I wanna park my vote to Om for now. (Translation: should I jump on that? It might look too opportunistic if I jump now.)
L: uh what the hell are you talking about? ...oh. I thought this was 13p game, not 12p.. my bad.
K: what's the difference?
B: none. *votes* (translation: oh hey someone else is attacking too! Time to jump!)
B: even if you assume 12p... (translation: I need to look town now! Time for some number talk!)
-note: I assumed 13p, not 12p.-

Agreed, actually. I have no idea what happened between 503 and 507 to make baldeagle go from Om to Yggdra other than Krazy apparently expressing suspicion of Yggdra.

Vote: baldeagle

Don't buy the other parts of the case, but this definitely stinks of opportunism.

[Alduskkel]

What I meant by "other parts of the case" was TIP saying that baldeagle was lying about TIP's meta and Boom saying baldeagle was being hypocritical.

If I was scum, I would probably want to be buddies with people that I'm familiar with. People like TiP, BOOM (I know one of the heads) and elle.

Noted. Unfortunately, this kind of answer is null.

-Luciana

What were you looking for?

---

Side note, sometimes I mistake 12p games for 13p games myself simply because 13p is so much more common these days.

[Alduskkel]

Not answering because I plan to use it again.

-Luciana

In this game?

[Alduskkel]

I still don't see what changed between 503 and 507.

[Alduskkel]

Why is he a Wolf specifically?

What are you, Mafia?

One scumslip might be coincidence... two scumslips is a pattern.

Seriously, why would you say "wolf" instead of "scum" unless you knew that baldeagle can't be mafia (because you know who the mafia are, i.e. you are a mafioso).

[Alduskkel]

Not gonna wait on this vote switch.

Vote: Yggdra Union.

Because two scumslips.

[Alduskkel]

I think they're saying your case is weak ("half-baked").

[Alduskkel]

Mafia have daytalk but Wolves don't?

[Alduskkel]

"Factional Communication" Section implies neither the Mafia nor the Werewolves have daytalk...

Hello,

[Name]

, and welcome to the loony bin! You are a

Mafia Goon

. You and your partners,

[Name]

and

[Name]

, quickly bonded together when you each realized neither of the others was crazy either. You were either locked up because you were a threat to those in control or threateningly incompetent, but in any event you are not insane. In fact you hate all of these drooling idiots and would love to see them all dead. Not that you would want to soil your hands actually killing anyone, but how hard can it be to manipulate this voting game and outlast the thugs?

Abilities:

-Factional Communication: During the Night Phase you may communicate with your partners

here

.
-During the Day you can talk, think, and vote.

Win Condition:

-You win when at least half the living players are mafia, or nothing can prevent this from happening.

Hello,

[Name]

, and welcome to the loony bin! You are a

Werewolf

. You and your partner

[Name]

were born extremely hairy and with a passion for all things lunar. Now when the mood strikes you (along with a few helpful moonbeams) you let a primal inner rage take over to kill whichever victim you have trapped beforehand. You took control of the asylum to imitate the Hunt as best you could in the form of a voting game. Can you prove your prowess to best the voting game and strategically use your bloodthirst to vanquish the rest of the inmates?

Abilities:

-Factional Communication: During the Night Phase you may communicate with your partner

here

.
-Factional Kill: At Night you or your partner may kill another player. Please PM with the name of your target and the player performing the kill.
-During the Day you can talk, think, and vote.

Win Condition:

-You win when at least half the living players are werewolves and one pro-town role remains, or when werewolves make up a full majority of the town, or nothing can prevent this from happening.

Bottom line is, I don't see how YU could specify that they think baldeagle is a WOLF if they can't rule out that they're not MAFIA. And unless you're Mafia you can't rule out people as Mafia. Therefore, scumslip.

[Alduskkel]

What setup were you even thinking of where Mafia have daytalk and Wolves don't?

[Alduskkel]

Why would you think Mafia had daytalk in this setup?

[Alduskkel]

What was your supposed scumslip last time?

[Alduskkel]

What was your supposed scumslip last time?

You don't even know what the scumslips are

Yet you vote



-Aegina

I'm trying to have a conversation with Luciana here, Aegina. I meant the scumslip from the other game.

@Luciana: Got a link to the other game?

[Alduskkel]

You do realize I'm just going to look it up myself, right? I was only hoping you would spare me the effort.

[Alduskkel]

Open 493? That means Luciana is the male Icebox, though.

[Alduskkel]

Fun Fact: The Seer has died N1 6/14 (43%) times. This exceeds both Werewolf wins (5/14 or 36%) and Mafia wins (3/14 or 21%), and equals Town wins.

@Luciana: Haven't read the game yet. I'll skim it and see if there's anything notable.

[Alduskkel]

The real question is, does YU's scumteam question refer to who you would want as your scumpartner(s) in the current state of the game or when the game first started?

[Alduskkel]

Open 493

Icebox = Luciana

[Alduskkel]

Oh, wait, Luciana = Remembrance and Remembrance is one part of the Icebox hydra, which also includes GuyInFreezer.

Anyway, still trying to read through 493 in the midst of posting in this thread and doing other stuff.

[Alduskkel]

Well, I figured out what Luciana's scumteam question was all about. It's clever enough, but the execution in this game so far has been very lacking, no offense.

Anyway, I'm going to

unvote

, given that the explanations so far are satisfactory (and Luciana/Remembrance "scumslipped" in 493 and were town).

Waiting to see how baldeagle responds before I decide where I put my vote next.

[Alduskkel]

Care to elaborate?

[Alduskkel]

That seems a little blatant to be a scum SLIP.

How does this affect your opinion of baldeagle?

[Alduskkel]

So anyone who votes you is scum?

[Alduskkel]

I unvoted you. Am I still scum, even though I'm not attempting to get you lynched right now?

[Alduskkel]

Stop posting so I can post.

[Alduskkel]

@Mod: I unvoted back in post 619.

Fixed

Anyway, I guess Luciana = GuyInFreezer actually. Not sure, could still be Remembrance.

We had TWO good reasons on our part to sort you as wolf.
Why are you ignoring those?

-L

What are those two reasons?

Also I'll be confirming myself as town now.

622 implies that I wolf-slipped.
635 implies that I mafia-slipped.

And the best part is: they ALL CAME FROM SAME POST

This is multiball, therefore general "scumslip" is NOT VALID. If we "scumslipped", we either slipped as mafia or slipped as wolf.
You follow me here? Good.

So apparently we've been accused as mafia-slip AND wolf-slip in the same post.
Ergo, we're either giant scumfuckcluster lord who controls both mafia and werewolf, or *gasp* we're town.

-L

Problem #1: The person accusing you of wolf-slipping is different from the person accusing you of mafia-slipping.
Problem #2: They don't come from the same post. 568 is the wolf slip, 559 is the mafia slip.

While we're on the subject, 577 is a not-Mafia slip, which YU has been calling a townslip. 495 is a scumslip (not Mafia nor Wolf specific).

Of course, we circle back around to whether or not ANY of these slips were actually slips.

[Alduskkel]

I wasn't actually trying to press you on the scumslips, I was just pointing out what possible slips there were. Hence the last sentence of my last post.

The better question is where the townslip was if 577 wasn't it.

[Alduskkel]

What's your opinion on my "towncase" on BOOM and tippy?

BOOM case is okay, but I would caution against calling anyone town based on their ability to scumhunt, since scum can scumhunt in this game too.

Your "case" for town TIP means little to me. TIP is still reading null.

We had TWO good reasons on our part to sort you as wolf.
Why are you ignoring those?

-L

What are those two reasons?

Quoted those few posts before.

Mind directing me? Your iso is difficult to sift through.

[Alduskkel]

Those aren't really GOOD reasons to think that baldeagle is a wolf.

[Alduskkel]

But you called them GOOD reasons back in post 636.

[Alduskkel]

So was Trumpet King. What do you make of that?

[Alduskkel]

Do you consider the baldeagle wagon a major wagon?

[Alduskkel]

Guys, I've just thought of a claiming strategy but I don't know if it actually works.

WHAT IF... someone claims Seer, and if it's a fakeclaim, the real Seer waits one Day to counterclaim? That way, if the fake claimer is Mafia, we force the Werewolves to kill the fake claimer FOR US. Because they cannot take the risk of not immediately killing a claimed Seer.*

...although, then every scum gets to claim Seer until the actual Seer dies. Which means that the worst (best? in that we are running up Mafia so that they have to claim 100% of the time...) case scenario would be that all 3 Mafia get to claim Seer to allow them to survive one lynch. But, I suppose then that means that we would be directing 3 Werewolf kills.

Of course, if we can't afford the Day (i.e. we HAVE to lynch scum), then we can't use this strategy. Fortunately, the odds of scum claiming Seer in the first place substantially decrease in these lylo situations because there often comes a time when it becomes optimal strategy for scum to claim either Mafia or Werewolf -- whichever side the Town cannot lynch. (For example, in a 3 Town 1 Mafia 1 Werewolf situation, Town cannot lynch the Mafia member without losing to the Werewolf. Therefore, both scum will likely claim Mafia if run up to a lynch, even if the Seer is still alive.)

Obviously, this strategy is mainly effective against Mafia claiming Seer, because we still have to lynch a Werewolf who claims Seer. However, this could mean we are turning the Werewolf nightkill into a pseudo-lynch.

---

What I haven't figured out:
1. What if there are two Seer claims in one Day, without either strictly being a counterclaim? (Since we've agreed in this case that the Seer should wait one Day. I define a counterclaim as a claim strictly made to show that the other claim is false.)
2. Are Werewolves ACTUALLY forced to kill claimed Seers?

The problem with #1 is that it is sometimes suboptimal to lynch a certain type of scum -- for example, what if both Werewolves claimed Seer today, but no Mafia are nightkilled or lynched that Day/Night cycle? If we choose to lynch both Werewolves consecutively then I believe we have to rely on them killing a Mafioso -- except then we get into a weird situation where the last Werewolf will threaten to avoid killing Mafia if we don't let the Werewolf live. And the biggest problem is that, due to the inherent lack of knowledge in any given situation, to discern what optimal play is requires accounting for all the other possibilities because the players have to do that too.

The problem with #2 is that if we come to the conclusion that optimal strategy is for Mafia to claim Seer, then the Werewolves know that any Seer claim has only a 25% chance of actually being the Seer. But then, they might kill the claimed Seer anyway if it's optimal for them to try to kill Mafia. But, if it's optimal for them to try to kill Mafia, are there then situations where they actually want to avoid killing the real Seer?

[Alduskkel]

There's going to be some people who skip that wall of text, and while I don't approve of skipping content in a game, I admit that some people won't care to read a bunch of inconclusive theorycrafting. So I'll separate this post from the previous one.

Aldus, care to explain the rational behind Yggdra's question? i dont understand.

The idea is to ask a person who they would want on their scumteam. That wording is the most optimal, because you don't specify how many names (when YU asked what PARTNERS someone would want this was very poor execution) you're asking for. If they respond with 1 name, they might be a Werewolf. If they respond with 2, they might be a Mafioso. The irony is that GIF/Luciana was a Seer in Open 493 and both parts of the hydra responded with 1 name, implicating them as a Werewolf. Meaning the question is not as sound as it might seem. Side note, Klick was the one trying to use it in Open 493.

Anyway, I'm

really

tired of talking about scumslips and townslips. I don't think it shows YU to be scum, and it definitely doesn't show them to be town. (Especially since one part of the hydra doesn't know what the townslip was, while the other part won't say.)

I'm just going to iso baldeagle and theaceofspades and see what I can conclude about them.

[Alduskkel]

By the way, it's really early in the morning so if my theorycrafting up there makes no goddamn sense or has an obvious flaw... well, you know why. Alternatively, I'm a total genius who has just set the new meta for all Jungle Republic games in the future.

[Alduskkel]

If a Werewolf fakeclaims Seer, he gets counterclaimed the next Day and we lynch him. How is this different from what occurs normally, aside from it being delayed 1 Day/Night cycle?

[Alduskkel]

By the way, I know I was just bemoaning how much we've been talking about scumslips and townslips, but I swear to god we better not start obsessing over the above theorycrafting, because if that's all we're doing then we're DEFINITELY not scumhunting. Better to make an MD thread after the game is over.

[Alduskkel]

I find it difficult to townread anyone when I know scum can scumhunt almost as well as town in multiball. I'm surprised you consider your TIP townread "firm."

If we don't lynch Mafia today, and someone's claimed Seer, and we're following my strategy, then won't the Wolf/Wolves kill the claimed Seer even if they want to kill Mafia, because there's a 75% chance of the claimed Seer being Mafia? This doubles the chance of a Wolf killing Mafia, although I admit that that only holds true if we assume any given Mafioso will always claim Seer.

[Alduskkel]

I thought this wasn't your town meta.

[Alduskkel]

And what was your plan?

[Alduskkel]

Why should I trust that you're not just being inconsistent?

[Alduskkel]

I can't tell if you actually have a scumread on baldeagle or not.

[Alduskkel]

Iso'd Ace and baldeagle. Weak town on ace, he comes across as genuine. Yeah, he's bandwagoned, but I think justifiably so. Also I feel like with baldeagle and YU (maybe some others, can't remember) both trying to line up his lynch tomorrow, I think ace is probably town.

What bothered me about baldeagle's iso was that he seems to get on all the main bandwagons right when they're gaining steam, i.e. at the most convenient time for him. So I think I can be okay with his lynch, but I believe if I vote for him then he goes to L-1, which I don't care to do right now.

[Alduskkel]

Uh, I'll let ace respond to that before I do. (Don't want to hand him a defense.) But I maintain my stance.

[Alduskkel]

I'll agree with Alduskell, that I'm getting really tired of the whole scumslip thing.

Yggdra, I was finally able to read your whole Act thing (which was helpful, by the way, I had a hard time trying to see through your explanation)and I do see some sense in them, so Yggdra is a null for me now.

I am up for an ace lynch due to the really scummy opportunistic vote and the OMGUS.

VOTE: ace

I'll read Ald's thing about the seer later tonight. Don't feel like read a wall of text at the moment due to me being tired from the amount of things happening during my V/LA.

This is such a garbage vote. I'd hammer you, but I really want to hear from other players.

You know what I am quite comfortable with the scum being Boom, Ald, ace, eagle and Trumpet King.
Everyone else is town, so...
VOTE: eagle

Hi I'm Om and I'm here to give some random reads with no reasoning and get on the most convenient bandwagon.

FoS

.

Why should I trust that you're not just being inconsistent?

Well, I'm not being inconsistent.

Uh, you're on record as calling baldeagle scum when he claims you're playing to your town meta, while agreeing with YU when they claim you're playing to your town meta. (Or at least saying, "Damn straight.")

Still want to hear more from: Boom, Trumpet King, elle, Krazy, TIP, Om. Or in other words, anyone who isn't YU, baldeagle, or ace, since they (and me, I guess) are collectively dominating the thread.

pedit: Actually, someone should unvote baldeagle, because if I had to guess TIP is going to hammer and cut off discussion or some bullshit like that.

[Alduskkel]

You're apparently voting ace.

So, baldeagle is insta-scum for lying when he says you're playing your town meta, but YU isn't?

[Alduskkel]

Why is baldeagle scum?

[Alduskkel]

I'm not going to stop talking because of some random plan that you have, TIP.

@Om: I'll grant you that you've expressed town reads on Krazy, elle, and Yggdra, but I don't think you've said much of anything about TIP at all. Also, why is Yggdra town?

[Alduskkel]

Alduskell, I was suspicious of ace all day. That vote didn't come from out of nowhere.

Should I claim now?

I'm just skeptical of whether or not you genuinely changed your read of YU.

And yeah, you should probably claim.

@elle: Not sure what you're asking, but I'd like you to tell me if you have a scumread on baldeagle or not, because your last post was awfully vague about it (even if you are voting him).

[Alduskkel]

What she asked is what do you want to hear about from those you mentioned.

-L

Scumreads.

Limited access for the 19th and the 20th. I'll still be back before deadline, though.

[Alduskkel]

Let me start by saying...

FUCK WHY IS EAGLE MAFIA?!

HE'S SUPPOSED TO BE WEREWOLF!!!

FUCK

FUCK FUCK FUCK.

Ahem...

I will avenge the, old pope of Ireland
-Aegina

Does it matter what type of scum he is?

---

Should we look for relational tells between others and baldeagle? That's probably just going to lead to more Mafia though... and we need to take out Werewolves eventually.

pedit: I assume this will do.

Yggdra, I had a scumread on TIP, Om and ace. You and Trumpet were null and everyone else was town. So I figured that you guys would be scum so I just tossed you in the scum pile.

[Alduskkel]

I called Om scum earlier, so no, that wasn't OMGUS.

ace, just because you don't think that Om is scum doesn't make me scum.

And, I'm a VT.

I could see a Om/YU wolf team and a TIP, ace, Trumpet King mafia team. To me, it just looks like that YU and Om are just bussing each other. Trumpet King was a guess, I didn't really have a 5th scumread. TIP is because he's lying about the fact that I lied. Ace, yeah you know why.

[Alduskkel]

Hmm, I was thinking it was implicating Trumpet King. Just seems sort of thrown in there.

From baldeagle's perspective, is it to his advantage to lie about his wolf reads?

[Alduskkel]

Then why'd he mark ace as Mafia, if you think ace is a Werewolf?

pedit: Or you, for that matter.

[Alduskkel]

Haven't you been townreading Krazy for most of the game at this point? Explain.

[Alduskkel]

I re-read Krazy's iso, and realized my original reasoning on him was good.

That was ages ago... does that reasoning really still hold up? I thought it was about his vote on fuzzy or something.

I don't know how you're townreading so many people. Om's been kind of lurky, elle had a very half-assed vote on baldeagle, and YU could be a Werewolf pretty easily (and bussing is super common in today's meta anyway).

[Alduskkel]

Explain your town reads, since you're mostly relying on PoE.

[Alduskkel]

Idk, I def agree on Alduskkel but TK?

I agree that the 'thrown in there' part of balds read looks like he's implicating TK - but the fact that it's Aldus who calls it out makes me iffy - could be bussing or could be trying to use that

to

implicate.

Or -- get this -- I could be town and making a perfectly valid point. Imagine that. Do my interactions with baldeagle seriously read as scum? Please go through my iso.

Anyway, need my own damn table here:
Elle
Om - unlikely Mafia
ace - Seer (TOWN)
Krazy
Aeronaut (TK)
Boom - not a Werewolf
YU - not a Werewolf, unlikely Mafia

Cut off the likely/confirmed Town:
Elle
Om - unlikely Mafia
Krazy
Aeronaut (TK)
Boom - not a Werewolf

Mafia are probably Aeronaut and Boom/Krazy/elle. Werewolves are probably in Krazy/elle/Om.

IF Aeronaut is Mafia then I think it follows from there that elle is also Mafia, because she's nudging me forward ahead of Aeronaut as a lynch target.

If all that's true, then the Mafia are Aeronaut and elle, and the Werewolves are Krazy and Om.

Therefore:

Vote: Krazy

L-1 I believe.

[Alduskkel]

Oh, and I would further posit that elle and Krazy are not on the same scumteam.

[Alduskkel]

Also, baldeagle casually put TK into his Mafia reads list, which looks more like a late bus than anything else -- baldeagle and TK barely mention or talk to each other at all otherwise. Also also, TK has a history of being on town wagons.

[Alduskkel]

I would've thought Werewolf.

...awkward to have your PoE messed up already, but at least he was still scum.

[Alduskkel]

Well, we're definitely going to have to hunt Werewolves tomorrow. Pool seems to be {elle, Om, Aeronaut}.

[Alduskkel]

I'd like to point out how fucking useless Krazy's reads post up there is.

[Alduskkel]

Krazy, expand on your elle read. Rules allow you to continue to post content.

TWILIGHT

The time between the casting of the lynching vote and the announcement of Night is known as Twilight. During this time, all living players may talk, even the one to be lynched, however no votes or unvotes will be counted.

[Alduskkel]

Boom is clear as Not-Werewolf.

Why rule out Aero and Om as Werewolves?

[Alduskkel]

So in other words, elle is probably not Mafia (and by the same token I am probably not Mafia from your perspectives).

[Alduskkel]

I wonder if this setup is biased against the Mafia. The wiki shows that their win percentage is significantly lower than either of the other factions.

[Alduskkel]

I don't see how it's to the Mafia's benefit to claim...

[Alduskkel]

Hypothetically:
Werewolf lynch --> Town kill --> Werewolf lynch --> 3p lylo, Mafia loses if he or she has claimed, has possibility of winning otherwise.

Mafia has no incentive to claim unless being run up for the lynch.

[Alduskkel]

QH?

[Alduskkel]

But, you're assuming that the Werewolves won't already be on the lynch.

[Alduskkel]

...you're the one who brought it up.

[Alduskkel]

I was pointing out why your plan wouldn't work.

[Alduskkel]

Let's talk about who the wolves are. I'm thinking Aeronaut, for starters.

[Alduskkel]

I was pointing out why your plan wouldn't work.

And the town motivation of pointing out such thing is?
-L

Just putting the information out there.

Let's talk about who the wolves are. I'm thinking Aeronaut, for starters.

What makes you think that?

TK was on three town wagons (Klick (TIP), Fuzzy, and ferret). Additionally, if elle is town (as I'm guessing she is, or at least not a wolf), then that means that you're scum with Om.

[Alduskkel]

Right.

Did you read the game during Night 3?

[Alduskkel]

24 hours into the Day, I'm the only the one who has done any sort of wolf hunting. Also half the playerlist hasn't even shown up yet.

[Alduskkel]

elleheathen and Om of the Nom are being prodded.

BOOMSHAKALAKA is being replaced as this will be his fourth prod.

EDIT:
I'm a moron. He's still on V/LA. He has 24 hours to post in thread or I will replace him.

Not only that, but apparently elle is V/LA too.

[Alduskkel]

No Lynch is a terrible idea because we potentially need the extra townie. Like so:
3T-2W-1M Lynch Werewolf, Townie dies
2T-1W-1M Lynch Werewolf
2-0-1 Lynch Mafia
Town win

Compared to:
3T-2W-1M No Lynch, Townie dies
2T-2W-1M Lynch Werewolf: If a Townie dies then the Mafia win. If the Mafioso dies, then:
2T-1W-0M Lynch Werewolf
Town win

Notice how in the second scenario we are relying on the Wolves to kill a Mafioso for us. I would rather not predicate our win on having the scum do something for us.

Additionally, if we no lynch now then we are not reducing our lynch pool because it is highly likely that one of the confirmed non-Werewolves will be killed; namely, YU or Boom.

@YU and elle: Who's your preferred lynch for today?

[Alduskkel]

I believe that means we have 4 people in favor of a Aeronaut lynch (Om, myself, you, and Boom).

[Alduskkel]

Vote: Aeronaut.

I assume we're doing it this way to avoid wolf quickhammers.

[Alduskkel]

Although the whole thing to take him to L-1 so he claims seems mostly like a formality, given that we could just skip the L-1 step...?

[Alduskkel]

*taps non-existent wristwatch*

We're waiting...

[Alduskkel]

Think Aero's at L-2, actually, since elle never voted him.

[Alduskkel]

I don't think you've crunched the numbers YU.

[Alduskkel]

The easiest way to look at it is:
1. If the Mafia claims, the ONLY scenario that he or she can win in is the day starting with 1-1-1.*
2. We are at an even number of players. Without passing on a lynch (didn't want to write "Without no lynching" lol), we will never end up at odd numbers except if we lynch both Werewolves -- and by then, the 1-1-1 scenario is, again, impossible.
3. We have no reason to not lynch. Wolves won't narrow down the lynch pool by NKs, they'll only eliminate confirmed non-werewolves. See also post 996. We also need the extra townie to end up in a 2 Town 1 Mafia endgame.
4. Therefore, the Mafia won't ever claim.

*After making the first part of this post, I realized that the Mafia can win if a day begins 0-1-1. This could occur if we lynch a Werewolf today, Werewolf kills a Townie, lynch another Townie, and then the Werewolf kills yet another Townie. But since the Werewolf will try to nightkill the Mafia if the Mafia ever becomes a threat, the Mafia again cannot claim because the Mafia needs to deceive the Werewolf regarding who is ACTUALLY Mafia. (If the Werewolf knows for sure who is Mafia -- say, if the Mafia claims -- then the Werewolf has a 100% chance of nightkilling Mafia.)

[Alduskkel]

I think you give too much credit to Aeronaut's skill as a wolf player.

[Alduskkel]

This [Aeronaut's vote on Boom] is either a really awful wolf move to try and end the game or a really awful town move from someone that hasn't actually read the game. Given the empty promises, I'm leaning the latter.

[snip]

By voting me, you're screwing the town, pretty much, although I suppose anyone could say that.

No,

you're

screwing the town

if you're town

by flaking out and not helping us. If you're town, you didn't even read up enough to know that BOOM has been cleared by the seer, making your vote ridiculous if you're town because the only thing that BOOM can be atm is mafia, and if mafia dies right now, it's a werewolf win. Given that, the only way that it would be 'screwing the town' to vote you is if you were mafia.

But then, it's also this fact and the rest that make me think you might actually

be

town - because if you actually were a wolf, I feel like you'd have had these questions answered overnight by your wolf partner or that you'd have at least read up.
Also, another reason:

As for who I think is scum or wolves, just look at the wagon on me.

Is because he'd be implicating one of his wolfbuds here if he was wolf - it's not unheard of but I feel like he'd have provided reasons or ...idk, three reads if he were? Mostly a gut feel on this.

These are your reasons that Aeronaut is not a wolf, correct? I'll answer these in blocks (based on their division by Aeronaut quotes up there).

1. Like I said, I definitely think Aeronaut is just a bad wolf player. This isn't a case of "too scummy to be scum" or anything like that.
2. You can't assume that Aeronaut was filled in by his partner, or that Aeronaut would have been more motivated if he were a wolf. I would guess that Om is the other wolf, and given

his

inactivity, that he could realistically have NOT filled in Aeronaut, especially if Aeronaut failed to indicate that he wasn't filled in.
3. I don't really see what you're seeing here.

pedit:
@Boom:
1. No, seriously. Don't do the goddamn "too scummy to be scum" thing. TK was on three town wagons. Aeronaut is scum.
2. I don't think elle is Aeronaut's partner, I think it's Om. That makes more sense. Did you just forget Om or something?

[Alduskkel]

-.-

I am Town. I'm just working out what's optimal play for the three factions so that we know what to expect. You seemed to be under the impression that the Mafia would claim.

What do you think of elle voting for Om?

[Alduskkel]

So, no one except the Mod has posted in the last 34 hours.

Either we talk more or we lynch Aeronaut now. Please, no more of this bullshit where we barely say anything.

[Alduskkel]

If we're going to lynch Aeronaut anyway then we shouldn't be afraid of a wolf quickhammer. Say elle were to be convinced to vote Aeronaut. Aeronaut isn't going to change his claim, we've established that. Unless there's something else mysterious that can only be obtained if Aeronaut is at L-1, it might as well be YU and Boom to lynch Aeronaut.

This game is just stalling annoyingly because people are afraid to lynch

but aren't talking about anything else either

.

More activity or lynch Aeronaut.

[Alduskkel]

Hi, you are very enthusiastic to see this day end. Its bugging me.

We are NOT lynching anyone yet.

Anyone unconfirmed by ace is a suspect to me at this point, Im too confused

I am only "enthusiastic to see this day end" if we're not going to do anything else.

If you're so confused, then why don't you actually do some scumhunting? Or at least give your opinion of existing material.

YU... I don't think elle is ever going to vote Aeronaut. What are you going to do, live perpetually in fear of a wolf hammer on someone who is already probably a wolf?

[Alduskkel]

I don't think there's a situation where we don't benefit from the Mafia getting nightkilled, as opposed to a Townie.

[Alduskkel]

There is.

If we lynch a townie right now and wolves hit the mafia at night, we lose.

And if we lynch a Townie right now and wolves hit another townie at night, we also lose.

Does Om actually think that ace cleared him and elle rather than YU and Boom? "Can't tell if serious" and all that.

Not going to vote Om though since if it's elle/Aeronaut (seems plausible at this point given elle's defense) then they'll quickhammer him. :/ Also I'm trying to figure out if Om is even being scummy because his actions make no damn sense from any alignment. (If he's a wolf what does he gain from attacking YU...?)

[Alduskkel]

What changed was that as of 1027 I wasn't aware of how uncompromising you were going to be about it; that became much more clear in the space between 1027 and 1062. Let me refer you to 1038, 1043, and 1046 (in response to 1044).

I mean, you're not even willing to cooperate with

Yggdra Union

, who we know to be a non-Werewolf, and likely non-Mafia too.

[Alduskkel]

Oh, and it's not a "complete reversal" of my read, it's just that the odds of you being a wolf have gone up enough for me that I'm not willing to risk the quickhammer on Om anymore.

[Alduskkel]

I never said I favored you as a wolf over Om. But I am less sure than I was before, therefore I will not open up the possibility for a quickhammer.

[Alduskkel]

What is your case on Om, anyway? Or me, for that matter, if you're going to insist that it's Om/me.

[Alduskkel]

Oh goodness, imagine

needing a case on someone

in

lylo

in order to get them lynched.

This isn't EASY MODO.

[Alduskkel]

I'd like to see what Om says, but I'm skeptical considering the lack of case(s) against him... I feel like even if it is Om, he's probably paired with Aeronaut, and if it's not Om (i.e., it's elle) then she's still paired with Aeronaut, so I'm far more comfortable voting for Aeronaut.

[Alduskkel]

Also, where do your individual heads stand, YU? Also Boom I guess, unless it's just DP.

[Alduskkel]

Great, our two lynch candidates both need replacement. What are we going to do now?

[Alduskkel]

While we wait why don't we actually do something useful? How about everyone records their opinions on Om vs. Aeronaut and

why

they think that.

[Alduskkel]

Think I've said most of this before, but, TK just rode on three town wagons, and both TK and Aeronaut were lurkers who definitely didn't do anything town.

Om I still prefer over elle for the 2nd wolf given that neither Om nor Aeronaut seemed clear on the Seer results (meaning that neither one could fill the other in), although elle's defense of Aeronaut gives me pause.

[Alduskkel]

Okay. But how does being on 3 town wagons differentiate between wolf and mafia?

Especially considering that he's not on

either

of the mafia lynches?

Are you arguing to me that you're a wolf with Om? Seems pretty silly of you to not go through with the Aeronaut lynch, then.

[Alduskkel]

Suggesting to me that Aeronaut is not a Wolf is equivalent to suggesting that you and Om are the Wolves. This is because I know YU, Boom, and myself are not Wolves; if you further assume that Aeronaut is not a Wolf, that leaves

only

you and Om.

I consider you and Om to be the least likely of the 3 possible Wolf teams.

Therefore, Aeronaut is a Wolf.

[Alduskkel]

^That's unusual.

@elle: Okay, you obviously have no clue what I'm talking about. You told me to consider that Aeronaut might not be a wolf. If that's true, that means you and Om have to be wolves, which I don't think is the case.

[Alduskkel]

Interesting replacement.

I'm aware deadline freezes aren't unusual, but freezing prods/votes was.

[Alduskkel]

I don't think there's a draw situation in this game...?

[Alduskkel]

The special mechanics rules are as follows:
-The mafia

DO NOT

possess a night kill
-Seer receives results in Werewolf or Not Werewolf
-

Note the special endgame rules:

--The mafia or the werewolves win if they make up a full majority of the living players OR if they make up half and at least one protown role remains.
--If mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers with no protown players left, the mafia wins.
--The mafia wins if a day begins with 1 mafia goon, 1 werewolf, and 1 protown role.

[Alduskkel]

No, I asked you why that made you think wolf when it made me think mafia.

TK being on 3 town wagons makes me think he's scum, but that's not specifically related to why I think he's a wolf. You can check my iso for why I think he's a wolf specifically.

@Aegina: Why's Om scummier than Aeronaut?

[Alduskkel]

I don't get it. Once we get to 4p why don't we just lynch a Werewolf? Then it's 3p -- 2 Town and 1 Mafia.

[Alduskkel]

Also, I'd like to remind you that the rule is "play to win" not "play to not lose."

[Alduskkel]

Also... even if the last Mafia is not one of the confirmed not-Wolves, the pool if we lynch a wolf today is still 2 -- enough for the last wolf to hide in.

As an example, suppose elle claims Mafia. That reduces our pool to 3 -- myself, Om, and LF. If we lynch LF (who is clearly a wolf), then Om (who is clearly the other wolf if elle has claimed Mafia) will kill either YU or Boom. Let's say he kills YU.

That would mean the next Day consists of myself, Om, Boom, and elle. Om can hypothetically attempt to get me lynched instead of himself, at which point he wins by NKing elle. Alternatively, we the town can lynch Om and then lynch elle and win.

[Alduskkel]

You might be right, but what's to stop the Mafia from only claiming if they are run up for a lynch? You're suggesting they should just claim now if they're in the pool of possible wolves.

[Alduskkel]

If it's 4p lylo and...

1. I'm Town, I want to lynch a Werewolf and then a Mafioso to win.
2. I'm Mafia, I want to lynch a Werewolf and then a Townie to win. Alternatively, I want to lynch a Townie and then dodge the nightkill to win. I can potentially accomplish either of these things if I don't claim.
3. I'm Wolf, I want to lynch either a Townie or a Mafioso to win -- preferably the latter. If a Townie is lynched, I want to nightkill the Mafioso or lose.

If it's 4p and we no lynch, then the Werewolf is in the same situation as 4p lylo where they want to nightkill the Mafioso. In the 3p lylo afterwards, there should still be an unconfirmed townie left -- 50-50 win/lose.

[Alduskkel]

Mafia is probably Boom

How'd you arrive at that conclusion?

What do I gain by saying "Om is wolf with X" and preferring to lynch X rather than just going with "Om is town"? (Assuming I and OOTN are wolves together.)

@Ald - Incorrect interpretation of results isn't that strong of a town tell. I actually have seen strong scum basically make a "oh I must have been the cleared" in this exact setup off a breadcrumb which was really obviously not a result on them.

What is this in response to?

[Alduskkel]

1. Interesting. Haven't taken the time to analyze Boom, probably won't until it's important -- if it ever is (e.g. Boom might get NK'd).

2. I guess? It wouldn't look very good though. Also by "other non-wolf" do you mean elle? Because I don't think elle is on my side. Nor are you, if you meant yourself.

3. I feel similarly to you, actually. Om's play there seems downright insane.

4. I have never said that being only on town wagons was a wolf tell.

[Alduskkel]

Lynch both Wolves in a row, then lynch the Mafia if necessary (i.e. if they don't get NK'd).

[Alduskkel]

"Being on town wagons" really shouldn't account for someone being wolf or not here, mafia or not it can be used as a tell but wolf really would be in the same dark that town is for trying to kill mafia. A non-wolf flip is a non-wolf flip, it would be hard to really be able to make the case that they were intentionally trying to get a town lynch instead of a not-wolf lynch.

...I hadn't thought of that, actually. CURSE YOU MULTIBALL

(That said, those quotes don't demonstrate me saying being on 3 town wagons is a wolf tell. I was saying it was a scum tell.)

@SV - If you are mafia you should claim it as its a forced draw.

No, it isn't.

[Alduskkel]

Well, I'm here and certainly not counterclaiming.

[Alduskkel]

Same. Now vote.

Before LF reads and Boom comes back? No.

Honestly, this just makes me more nervous about the possibility of LF/you wolfteam >.>

[Alduskkel]

What do I get from Boom? Potentially a counterclaim. Any reads they might have. Also:

unvote

Just realized I didn't do that in first post.

I want to actually do more of a read of the game, SV is probably where im going to end up though.

And anyway, what reason do I have to stall if I'm a wolf?

[Alduskkel]

1. I don't recall. That was 3 weeks ago. I guess I thought Aeronaut was Mafia back then? Don't know.
2. Again: 3 weeks ago. 1 game Day, too. My reads have changed, and you'll notice I basically say that I'm going to have to redo my PoE just 10 posts later.

As for "throwing out your win chance" ... won't you just kill YU? Then you'll get me lynched and win. That's how I imagine it'll go, anyway.

[Alduskkel]

You started with the assumption that SV would flip wolf by saying that you took away your own chance at winning. I

continued

along that train of thought.

I said in that post that I thought it was elle/Aeronaut for Mafia, and then Krazy/Om for Wolves. Krazy flipped Mafia instead. That required a repairing.

[Alduskkel]

I think it's become abundantly clear that elle/SV is just NOT the wolf pair in this game.

[Alduskkel]

If the game is just going to end in a draw (as you and YU think), then what's the point of all this questioning?

[Alduskkel]

1. Why would you vote me over SV?
2. If you're going to lynch SV then questioning me won't matter if the game is drawn.

[Alduskkel]

Before LF reads and Boom comes back? No.

[Alduskkel]

Well, I guess mostly the second part of that now.

[Alduskkel]

Last I checked Boom was voting elle.

LF ain't obv town, bro.

Anyway, I've already made up my mind that I'm not going through with any lynch until Boom shows up, so you're just going to have to deal with it.

[Alduskkel]

Said the Mafioso.

[Alduskkel]

I wouldn't go that far. You have your agenda.

[Alduskkel]

Boom, are you Mafia or not? YU claimed Mafia in 1144.

[Alduskkel]

What do I gain from stalling?

[Alduskkel]

[Alduskkel]

Now what?

[Alduskkel]

Town lynch means Mafia or Wolf win. Wolf just has to kill the Mafia.

[Alduskkel]

[Alduskkel]

So according to you:
1. I deliberately avoided the SV wagon for the ENTIRE day. Given numerous attempts to bus, I never took them, even after it was practically a foregone conclusion that SV would be lynched. Thus ensuring that I would have a terrible position Day 5 since all 3 of you seem to think I am the last Wolf.
2. Given that last part, I then chose to kill Yggdra Union, the claimed Mafioso. Which implies that I thought I could win as the last Wolf without any chance for a draw. That's fucking stupid and arrogant.

I think the YU kill indicates that the remaining Wolf is going for a win

by trying to kill off the last Mafioso. But of ALL the Wolf candidates, I have the most reason to go for a draw. And yet, apparently, I didn't.

[Alduskkel]

Fuck it. I'm Mafia.

This post by YU just about sums it up.

And obviously I didn't counterclaim because I didn't want to eat the damn nightkill.

I'm claiming now so you idiots can unvote me before LF just hammers for the win.

[Alduskkel]

Then there's this whole damn exchange...

[Alduskkel]

Well, apparently elle disappeared 4 minutes after posting here. I'm just going to hope DP comes in and unvotes, then.

[Alduskkel]

It's kind of suspicious, to be honest.

Anyway, sorry for the quadruple post.

[Alduskkel]

AGH

This game is going to last forever.

[Alduskkel]

So we have to wait for DP then.

[Alduskkel]

I would like to point out that "waiting out the timer" means waiting TWO WEEKS. What are we going to do for two weeks?

[Alduskkel]

So if my claim doesn't mean anything (according to you), then why the hell didn't you guys just lynch me anyway?

[Alduskkel]

What were you even hoping for? If you thought I was a wolf, you should have lynched me, and as you say, my claim shouldn't have made a difference.

[Alduskkel]

If you were a wolf, would you nightkill me?

[Alduskkel]

Same question to elle.

[Alduskkel]

@LF: Why wouldn't you NK me? Afraid I might be town? Don't think you can win a 1v1 vs. elle?
@DP: Well, what do you expect a Mafioso to do if they're being run up for a lynch, knowing that they can bargain over the fact that it will also cause a Town loss?

[Alduskkel]

If I had to be Town or Mafia, what would you pick?

[Alduskkel]

How do you figure DP is Mafia?

[Alduskkel]

You guys shut up and just be glad that I altslipped literally right after I died.

[Alduskkel]

Still, I would appreciate it if you guys don't mention that to people in the relevant game. Particularly because that would actually be talking about ongoing games, so ssshhhh. And if you're secretly in that game... well, I don't know what to tell you.

Really though, that's super stupid, considering I had no reason to log onto that account any more, so that was practically the last chance I had to altslip.

Anyway, enough about that.

Vote: Draw

still stands.

[Alduskkel]

How do you figure DP is Mafia?

Well this essentially confirms Ald is wolf... not sure why he would even care why I think a player apart from him is mafia if he is mafia.

The obvious answer is that you said that 1) If I had to be Town or Mafia, I was Town; and 2) that if you had to pick Mafia you would pick DP. This is actually relevant to my win condition.

[Alduskkel]

Mafia are lucky they got away with a draw after getting two members lynched. Town I feel a bit sorry for since they only mislynched once but still got stuck with a draw. On the other hand, I kind of felt like I got dragged down by the Om/SV slot -- mostly Om. I sent SV over to Mhork as a replacement because I wanted/needed a competent partner to secure a win but I feel like SV just dicked around.

You might think it was completely ridiculous for me to protect Om/SV so much, but keep in mind I ALMOST got the Aeronaut lynch, but then he had to replace out. LF was a better replacement for Aeronaut than SV was for Om. On the other hand, I think the initial team of Om/Gnomeo would not have survived (in other words I am tooting my own horn as a replacement for Gnomeo), so you could argue that replacements helped the Wolves, too.

Anyway, I could have gone for an endgame with LF/elle/myself, but I had no way to tell that elle would continue to think I was not a Wolf after DP flipped Mafia; for that matter, I couldn't be sure DP was Mafia in the first place, but if I wanted to win he was a mandatory kill because he thought I was a Wolf.

Interesting result in the end. I think that a draw is still very unlikely in the setup, given that Mafia/Wolf cooperation is so difficult to secure. Despite how it might appear, I was still attempting to win up until the very end: I essentially trying to prod LF into giving bad responses so that -- for some reason -- DP would decide to vote LF, and then I would immediately hammer. Of course, this was essentially banking on DP not being Mafia, which as we know was not the case.

Wolf QT

[Alduskkel]

I would have always killed you YU unless someone ELSE had claimed Mafia.

[Alduskkel]

I actually had scumreads on Gnomeo and OOTN before I even got my role PM. Man was that awkward.

[Alduskkel]

So what was this about, then?

It really isn't but thanks for ruining my plan bro

[Alduskkel]

I would have been very unhappy if I had been forced to kill. And you can't force the Town to lynch, since they can't lynch without the aid of the Mafia or the Werewolf.

[Alduskkel]

I don't understand how you expect to force the Town to lynch in this situation.