Open 521: Jungle Republic (Alright. We'll call it a draw)

[LlamaFluff]

Kinda skimmed last little bit.

I actually should be most obvious town out of the ones who could be wolf because Aero apparently had no clue what was going on seer wise, when wolves would be fully aware of what is happening there.

If the goon gets votes they need to claim, any goon claim we don't lynch. Goon is playing for the 1-1-1 endgame, goon will only claim (since they will only be under pressure) if they are in the wolf group, where at that point they get a somewhat prisoners dilemma situation.

Actually I wonder if this is a forced draw if goon is in the four wolf group.

It is. Awesome.

@Goon - If you are elle/Ald/OOTN claim now I have a forced draw for you. Right now you need to lynch wolf, dodge the kill, lynch wolf and then lynch town. All while not getting lynched. Good luck with that. You have... minimum 67% chance draw though my way and you cant lose outside of wolf gamethrow.

Need to think about this. I almost want to say Ald is town on a competence argument since the N2 kill had claimed VT day one. Gut is making me want the OOTN vote though as competence I can call Ald town (although the VT claim wasn't exceedingly obvious) and 1023 from elle is not-wolf like.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah I ran the numbers... goon claims today they are assured a draw if he hit wolf as long as the other wolf doesn't essentially make a move that force loses them the game.

Cant believe I replaced into a draw. That's a first.

[LlamaFluff]

I don't think there's a draw situation in this game...?

Game stalls at 4P realistically here. The way I see it:

We lynch wolf today. If the last goon is not "cleared" we know who wolves are. That means we are probably headed to a 2:1:1 where at that point the game just stops as it probably loses for wolf or mafia to lynch. The only way we can actually win is for the wolf to hit mafia tonight. Which basically means they just kill the least likely slot to be mafia because that forces in the draw.

So its drawn as long as we hit a wolf today. I would rather strip out our win chances and take what essentially will be a guaranteed draw if it means we cant lose.

Its a draw. The game will just no lynch (by force) forever at F4.

I'm telling you that aldus is mafia, not areo/llama.

Just look how shows keen interest in mafia's wincon and mafia's benefit.
-L

Problem is that just about everyone familiar with this setup know that as well, that's why its a drawn situation.

[LlamaFluff]

Also interesting if wolf is one of Adul/OOTN/elle they are 100% guaranteed a draw because wolves need the goon alive to force the draw as there are suddenly three confirmed not-wolf players.

If one of you three are the goon you need to immediately claim. If you don't, you basically are resigning to a loss. Even if its one of the "not wolf" players they may want to claim because wolf still loses ground with a kill of mafia.

@YG - Im happy enough finding a forced draw in a situation where we realistically need massive massive help from scum to possibly win. Least happy about this are going to be wolves who up until just now probably thought they had this one won.

[LlamaFluff]

Also, I'd like to remind you that the rule is "play to win" not "play to not lose."

I would rather take a forced draw than rely on wolf playing badly to have a chance at winning. There is a point where playing to your win condition means playing to not lose. I will take a massive chance at the half point over a near zero chance of the no point.

I don't get it. Once we get to 4p why don't we just lynch a Werewolf? Then it's 3p -- 2 Town and 1 Mafia.

Because if mafia is at all worried about their chances of winning, or if they have claimed, they just back the no lynch. This is just endgame mechanics 101. Mafia should be happy with a draw as they need two correct lynches AND to avoid a kill. Wolves want mafia alive so if they get in trouble they can force a no lynch. We at this point basically need three correct lynches in the correct order in such a scenario where if we even run up last mafia we cannot possibly win.

I want a near 100% draw, even if it means we cant win.

[LlamaFluff]

Actually wait a sec.

Llama if aldus is town and elle is not-wolf-like, who are the wolves?
Me and boom are confirmed not-wolf.

I think its Ald and OOTN as wolves. I could somewhat call Ald town due to the N2 kill, if they weren't taking notes its one of those things that would be missed. I only saw it when doing an iso on Klick.

Also if you look at Ald-OOTN, they really don't show up on eachothers radar, but there is a lot of "OOTN is wolf with X" stuff coming from Ald, and remember all they would need is one mislynch here to win.

Mafia is probably Boom

@Ald - Incorrect interpretation of results isn't that strong of a town tell. I actually have seen strong scum basically make a "oh I must have been the cleared" in this exact setup off a breadcrumb which was really obviously not a result on them.

[LlamaFluff]

Mafia is probably Boom

How'd you arrive at that conclusion?

Elimination of wolf reads + town reads

What do I gain by saying "Om is wolf with X" and preferring to lynch X rather than just going with "Om is town"? (Assuming I and OOTN are wolves together.)

Showing suspicion if the wagons shift there (which Boom already voted) seems like a way to be able to jump that direction if ever actually pressed to. Also it would keep the other non-wolf more on your side just due to basic association of trying to pair off.

@Ald - Incorrect interpretation of results isn't that strong of a town tell. I actually have seen strong scum basically make a "oh I must have been the cleared" in this exact setup off a breadcrumb which was really obviously not a result on them.

What is this in response to?

Where you were saying that OOTN didn't realize that the seer claimed.

Misinterpret (intentional or accidental) is more likely to come from scum than ignorance of the claim. That post is why im a little hesitant to actually vote him though. It seems almost like the too bad of play for scum, but I can see scum trying to either put doubt on a result or interpret it to their gain.

That aside, why is being only on "town wagons" not a scumtell but a wolftell to you? As far as I can see its a complete null tell on the wolf side, mafia tell at best.

[LlamaFluff]

Think I've said most of this before, but, TK just rode on three town wagons, and both TK and Aeronaut were lurkers who definitely didn't do anything town.

Okay. But how does being on 3 town wagons differentiate between wolf and mafia?

Especially considering that he's not on

either

of the mafia lynches?

Are you arguing to me that you're a wolf with Om? Seems pretty silly of you to not go through with the Aeronaut lynch, then.

Sure seems like you are saying "was only on town wagons" is a tell here and then dodging the response from elle correctly calling it as scummy to me. Granted elle isn't entirely right in her response but its the right path.

"Being on town wagons" really shouldn't account for someone being wolf or not here, mafia or not it can be used as a tell but wolf really would be in the same dark that town is for trying to kill mafia. A non-wolf flip is a non-wolf flip, it would be hard to really be able to make the case that they were intentionally trying to get a town lynch instead of a not-wolf lynch. Using voting records in this way is scummy.

@SV - If you are mafia you should claim it as its a forced draw.

[LlamaFluff]

"Being on town wagons" really shouldn't account for someone being wolf or not here, mafia or not it can be used as a tell but wolf really would be in the same dark that town is for trying to kill mafia. A non-wolf flip is a non-wolf flip, it would be hard to really be able to make the case that they were intentionally trying to get a town lynch instead of a not-wolf lynch.

...I hadn't thought of that, actually. CURSE YOU MULTIBALL

(That said, those quotes don't demonstrate me saying being on 3 town wagons is a wolf tell. I was saying it was a scum tell.)

Why is it a scumtell even in that case? That argument can be equally applied to just about the entire thread since no one has a voting record with a wolf flip attached to it.

"Has been on town wagons" would be like doing that in a mountainous in a 2:3 endgame and saying that's a solid tell.

[LlamaFluff]

If there is a counter now is the time to throw it out there.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

Just realized I didn't do that in first post.

I want to actually do more of a read of the game, SV is probably where im going to end up though.

[LlamaFluff]

Idk, I def agree on Alduskkel but TK?

I agree that the 'thrown in there' part of balds read looks like he's implicating TK - but the fact that it's Aldus who calls it out makes me iffy - could be bussing or could be trying to use that

to

implicate.

Or -- get this -- I could be town and making a perfectly valid point. Imagine that. Do my interactions with baldeagle seriously read as scum? Please go through my iso.

Anyway, need my own damn table here:
Elle
Om - unlikely Mafia
ace - Seer (TOWN)
Krazy
Aeronaut (TK)
Boom - not a Werewolf
YU - not a Werewolf, unlikely Mafia

Cut off the likely/confirmed Town:
Elle
Om - unlikely Mafia
Krazy
Aeronaut (TK)
Boom - not a Werewolf

Mafia are probably Aeronaut and Boom/Krazy/elle. Werewolves are probably in Krazy/elle/Om.

IF Aeronaut is Mafia then I think it follows from there that elle is also Mafia, because she's nudging me forward ahead of Aeronaut as a lynch target.

If all that's true, then the Mafia are Aeronaut and elle, and the Werewolves are Krazy and Om.

Therefore:

Vote: Krazy

L-1 I believe.

Few things from this

1) "If Aero is mafia". Where are you getting that "if"? Seems arbitrary designation to me.
2) If the wolf group was krazy/OOTN/elle why are you voting Aero/me now? Did the Krazy-mafia flip make OOTN/elle less likely to be wolf somehow?

@YG - I still want to think on this. I think Adul is more likely wolf independently of everything else.
@Adul - Are you really going to continue to claim im wolf after the mafia claim? Because if you want to believe im wolf I just took all of the win chance out of my own hands by forcing that through if that's the case.

[LlamaFluff]

As for "throwing out your win chance" ... won't you just kill YU? Then you'll get me lynched and win. That's how I imagine it'll go, anyway.

So... OOTN is wolf? If that's your train of thought it would have to be a truth.

Also the OOTN/elle as wolf was a pretty recent read, nothing new outside of Krazy-mafia has been revealed there. When there are four possible wolf reads for you at that point, you moved essentially your #4 to the top spot with the #1 being mafia. That's a bit of a major shift that I don't see any clear reason you have backing it up.

[LlamaFluff]

I said in that post that I thought it was elle/Aeronaut for Mafia, and then Krazy/Om for Wolves. Krazy flipped Mafia instead. That required a repairing.

But

Werewolves are probably in Krazy/elle/Om.

Here you list all but Aero as wolf. Even removing Krazy then you have elle/OOTN left.

[LlamaFluff]

I think it's become abundantly clear that elle/SV is just NOT the wolf pair in this game.

So I should be voting you? Also it should be abundantly clear that elle/me is NOT the wolf pair. Mostly given how OOTN isn't dead right now and such.

If the game is just going to end in a draw (as you and YU think), then what's the point of all this questioning?

Because we still have to lynch wolf here.

Then wolf decides if they go for broke or not.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote SV

You know you could just have claimed wolf from the start to save us all time.

[LlamaFluff]

The oversimplified simplification for why SV has to be scum here:

He sees a no lynch in a F6 as a bad thing, meaning that he would know there are clears (or it would be a good thing) as he would know that, he also would have known who those clears were, and obviously he is reading enough to not just latch onto the first "not town" claim or he would have voted YU. Think this is just wolf way of resignation.

What happens tonight should actually be the interesting part.

[LlamaFluff]

Realistically?

It comes down to whatever mafia wants. Kinda complicated endgame here.

1) Mafia lynch means wolf wins
2) Town lynch means mafia wins
3) Wolf lynch means either town or mafia wins

Obviously if we are lynching we are going for the wolf lynch, but mafia can still block the lynch if they want by simply claiming here.

Ultra side note - this is fully forced to a draw by wolf too, but that's a far more complex thing and im not overly sure whoever last wolf is would know it so im not saying it, but its there and if it happens we are stuck in a draw.

So yeah... its up to mafia. If mafia wants to stop a lynch and draw I would prefer they let us know that right now by voting no lynch.

Otherwise we actually do go for the wolf lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

Well im still town but this is a drawn situation.

Ald cant vote anyone because it means he loses
I wont vote Ald because it means elle wins

Just for the "that was interesting" side note, how this was drawn even before this claim was that if wolf got ran up they just claimed mafia. We don't vote mafia ever, mafia cant counter without sticking us in a forced draw as any mafia claim ends it. Granted this was also exactly what town should have done here, so it was probably a draw no matter what happened.

Vote Drawn Game

[LlamaFluff]

So can we seriously just draw this now?

Its impossible to win for anyone without a different faction playing beyond against their win condition. Im not talking about taking a longshot but literally throwing the game.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah - that'd be great.
Except that voting No Lynch is offering Llama a free chance for 3p lylo.

Even if I was scum I wouldn't be making a kill and just take the draw because its correct play to have claimed mafia no matter what happened when someone got ran up really. Realistically Ald could be anything here as far as I am concerned because the claim was the right move for wolf, mafia or town.

Its a draw, face it. Whether it be you or Ald, wolf making a kill is an exceedingly risky move with minimal payout.

The game is drawn, Ald will never vote because it would instantly lose them the game. Wolf will never self-vote. Just vote draw/no lynch because the game is entirely out of everyones hand except wolf right now, where they get to decide if they believe the mafia claim enough to turn a draw into an outside shot win at best.

[LlamaFluff]

Probably wouldn't have either way. Really it was just going through the motions hoping scum did something to screw things up badly.

At this point though its a draw. If you aren't wolf (not even really sure of that) and they want to take the gamble that you aren't just fakeclaiming town (as I said, it was right move for town) then that happens. Our only other chance is to actually hit wolf though, which if you are mafia (or town for that matter) you wont do because it would result in your death the next day.

[LlamaFluff]

What were you even hoping for? If you thought I was a wolf, you should have lynched me, and as you say, my claim shouldn't have made a difference.

Something that essentially confirmed you or elle as wolf in a situation I could hammer.

Like I said to start the day, its a draw unless someone did something amazingly stupid here.

[LlamaFluff]

If you were a wolf, would you nightkill me?

Apart from the WIFOM attached to that one, no. I actually still think you are last wolf here really who just knew what to claim.

[LlamaFluff]

@LF: Why wouldn't you NK me? Afraid I might be town? Don't think you can win a 1v1 vs. elle?

If I was wolf killing wrong would mean I lose. I would need to trust you didn't see that as the correct move as town, which I wouldn't be able to. At times its better to take what you have for sure instead of to take a risk and lose it all.

The game is drawn unless wolf wants to put a very high risk for what is nowhere near a guaranteed reward. Its really that simple.

[LlamaFluff]

If I had to be Town or Mafia, what would you pick?

Town.

DP is still mafia here.

[LlamaFluff]

How do you figure DP is Mafia?

Well this essentially confirms Ald is wolf... not sure why he would even care why I think a player apart from him is mafia if he is mafia.

[LlamaFluff]

I think its Ald and OOTN as wolves.

Mafia is probably Boom

Was reading the situation right at least.

[LlamaFluff]

over it