Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[Amrun]

VOTE: cdb

Reveeeenge

[Amrun]

PA, what do you have to take revenge on ME for? You were scum! You won!

[Amrun]

-manly Hagrid tears-

-become friends with troll-

[Amrun]

Trufax

[Amrun]

VOTE: squilly

Lol

Cdb: Don't be silly.

[Amrun]

Urgh, oriole, why would you poo poo an early game wagon like that before the player has a chance to respond?

VOTE: oriole

Sidestepped pa's question about why my wagon was good. Actually impeding scumhunting and not doing any of his own.

[Amrun]

Toomai, why is voting three times scummy?

Rach, what are your opinions on the bouncing wagons?

[Amrun]

Stahp

[Amrun]

Squilly, could you provide some reasons for your votes? Naked votes are frowned upon.

Frowned upon by whom? Do you frown upon them?

[Amrun]

Well, yes, depending on context, but I don't care about that.

VOTE: lngrr

Tonally, the passive voice is very strange there, and strange how he went out of the way to say that without remarking on squilly's alignment.

[Amrun]

Define "weird triangle."

I never said squilly's vote was good/excused. (It is neither.)

[Amrun]

Why are these "weird triangle" interactions indicative if anything? What are they interactive of?

I didn't question squilly because I'd already pressured him for exactly the same thing before and because your response was far more interesting. Questioning him too would have undermined my own inquiry to you. Squilly has already proven he's going to be a schizophrenic newbie. I have my eye on him but I have my own methods of sussingthings out.

[Amrun]

I didn't say I wanted to keep the pressure on squilly.

[Amrun]

Jason, start playing the game.

[Amrun]

That's why you're still on your rvs vote, right?

[Amrun]

That's exactly my point. If it isn't, you're not playing the game. Your next post after rvs was "Amrun is STILL scum," implying I was scum in rvs because "I'm always scum." If you have a legitimate scumread on me, step up to the plate because you're not playing.

[Amrun]

I had a scum read on you, when i voted.

This is bullshit.

[Amrun]

I haven't decided if its scum bullshit yet and I like the lngrr wagon.

[Amrun]

And this whole "mysterious voting triangle" is the sort of meaningless coincidence that scum like to point out in lieu of actually scumhunting.

I wasn't sure at first but he's literally not even attempting to draw a conclusion from it, so yes.

This is a good wagon. Amrun is pleased.

[Amrun]

From what I've seen of Jason, no reason to think he's more likely to behave this way as scum than town. See #51 for actual psychological insight into a KILLER (passive voice to go "naked votes are frowned upon" rather than "I am frowning upon your naked vote" is what you say when you want to avoid owernship of your words).

Do you really actually believe this? I fully explained what I meant the next post, after I realized some people obviously aren't familiar with the English language.

If I were to say something like, "Lying about your claim at L-2 is frowned upon", would you still think that's the "sign of a KILLER"? (Also, I love the way you made sure to capitalize that word to add extra emphasis to your bullshit "scumhunt".)

Lets just get this straight here:

Squilly votes and unvotes nakedly twice and once with a horrible explanation, and hasn't really posted since then = newbtown, totally excusable

LnGrrrR uses the passive voice = obvscum

I'm glad Im not the only one who sucks at scumhunting his game. Join the club Channel.

This reeks of scum caught for the wrong reasons and "why aren't they lynching the scummy newb." Also, calling your own scumhunting bad while also putting down someone voting for you is just all sorts of scummaliciousness.

And this whole "mysterious voting triangle" is the sort of meaningless coincidence that scum like to point out in lieu of actually scumhunting.

I wasn't sure at first but he's literally not even attempting to draw a conclusion from it, so yes.

This is a good wagon. Amrun is pleased.

Hmm... Well, what did I say about it when I first brought it up?

Also not a fan of the weird triangle between Amrun, ChannelDelibird and Squilly.

Squilly has only "seriously" voted both of you, you and CDB both voted for each other in RVS, and then you both voted me back to back. Not sure what to make of it, but it feels off to me.

I don't know that it is necessarily "indicative" of anything... As I just said above, not sure what to make of it but it feels off. Just a gut reaction that there's too much synchronicity there.

Again, I don't know what to make of it. Something about it feels off, but Im not sure how. I know, Im totally scum for not having the team down rock solid by the whopping fourth page of this game, and goodness forbid I try to post something that isn't a total lead. I should just be like Jason and say "Hey this guy is scum!" and then I wouldn't be suspicious at all. Or just sheep everyone else's vote like Squilly. Or just lurk like half the people in the thread. Then I'd be obvtown!

Amrun, Channel, if you are town, step up your game. I'm really the main person posting so I know it's hard to find other interactions, but try to stop tunneling anyways and take a look.

This, like a few other things, comes from the mindset that CDB and I are both town. You're also not the person posting the most, not that posting = content anyway.

Guys, I feel a death tunnel coming on.

[Amrun]

I really don't care about the fact that he used passive voice. It's the context, and what else he DIDN'T say in that post, and then his reactions to that.

[Amrun]

I don't get the whole "horrible reaction to the wagon" comments. It's more so a reaction to the BS "mind of a killer" grammar analyzing going on. I mean, if you guys have an actual argument, bring it. But I see a lot of wishy washy "his response was bad" without actually identifying what was bad about it. Amrun at least put together a case, though I think it's a weak one.

This reeks of scum caught for the wrong reasons and "why aren't they lynching the scummy newb." Also, calling your own scumhunting bad while also putting down someone voting for you is just all sorts of scummaliciousness.

"Scum caught for the wrong reasons"... What do you mean by that?

And I know that your scum hunting is bad, because you have been tunnelling me and I'm town. That's how I know your current scumhunting skills are lacking.

As far as "posting the most", I think the interactions with me have been the majority of the game so far.

Scum have a particular type of frustration when they are "caught" for reasons they believe to be shoddy. That's the impression you're giving me.

You were talking about cdb there, not me --nice to see we aren't distinguished in your mind because you're not trying to read us.

[Amrun]

Death tunneling isn't a bad thing.

Arguments grow, evolve, and become stronger or weaker -- that's the way the game works.

And I never said town doesn't fight. Town get frustrated in a DIFFERENT way.

You say you're trying to determine me and cdb's alignments, but I see zero evidence of that. You're focused on discrediting the case any way possible without actually seeming like you give a rat's ass whether we're scum or not.

[Amrun]

Okay, stubbs is scum too.

[Amrun]

I don't find Jason an interesting vote at all so far (based on what I've seen of him before) but his Amrun vote needs to move.

UNVOTE: LnGrrR
VOTE: StubbsKVM

Amrun, with me. I get the impression we'll have to leave LnGrrR for later.

BLEGH BLEGH BLEGH

But okay. Let's remain united.

VOTE: Stubbs

[Amrun]

I really want to post but I have nothing to contribute. I have weak, aggregate reads on four players and doubt the correctness of all of them.

Which four players? Why do you have the reads you have on those players?

JasonWazza: Slightly scummy because of what he's done so far (i.e. nothing but claim that he has a scumread and that he'll elaborate later). To be honest I feel like I should consider him null until he actually elaborates, but I feel his attitude about it (especially early on) is anti-town at best.
LnGrrrR: Slightly town because...don't know to be honest, it's mostly an aggregate of extremely slightly town posts.
Fegelein: Slightly town for the same reason as LnGrrrR (i.e. basically gut).
Squilly: Currently of the opinion he's newbietown, since I think someone with claimed offline experience would put a bit more work into learning how to be town online.

Don't have any reads on anyone else?

[Amrun]

What are you doing about that?

[Amrun]

Stubbs is trying to fit in. Can we please havenorevotes for him?

[Amrun]

What are your current reads?

You just quoted one of them. I think I have shared enough. Don't nightkill me bro

[Amrun]

That is a terrifying gif.

Look at Stubbs' reads list, and when it was made, and his response about oriole. LOOK AT IT

[Amrun]

All excellent points from CDB.

In addition, I'd like to point out that he changed Rach out of "leaning scum" SOLELY because she produced a list of reads, which shows that he associates it with towncred.

[Amrun]

In 203, "he" refers to Stubbs, for clarification.

[Amrun]

I'm having a hard time getting reads, but here's an attempt. Only slight scumreads on Jason for refusing to participate, Squilly for empty votes and Rach for having 2 reads. I'm having especially a lot of difficulty reading Amrun, so I just put him at null. LNG I think is just frustrated town.

Town

oriole
Fegelein

Leaning Town

ChannelDelibird
fferyllt
LnGrrrR

Null

Syryana
penguin_alien
Toomai
Amrun

Leaning Scum

JasonWazza
RachMarie
Squilly

Scum

N/A


P-Edit: Okay so Rach might be town too.

Also, note this timeline:

-Stubbs produces reads list out of thin air
-CDB criticizes people for posting reads list without votes
-With no questioning or further content, Stubbs votes Squilly, who is by far the easiest vote in the entire game

[Amrun]

V/la for weekend (and Monday this week) reminder

[Amrun]

VOTE: lngrr

Wagon re-assemble!

[Amrun]

I think he's being an idiot, but that doesn't necessarily make him scum. Lngrr has a much higher chance of flipping scum, not that I'd cry if Jason were lynched.

[Amrun]

LNGRR WaGON, I COMMAND THEE TO FORM

[Amrun]

Notice how lngrr's "would vote for" list is just people playing poorly, regardless of alignment. That's hallmark of scum. Ta!

[Amrun]

@Amrun,

Why aren't "people playing poorly" scummy to you? What makes you think Jason and/or Marquis is town? Did you bother to read Ffery's link in which Jason hardcore lurked as scum?

Your scum huntin still sucks by the way. Stop tunnelling.

Town and scum can play poorly. Playing poorly is not indicative of alignment. Marquis seems moderately townish to me, and Jason didn't really until his claim, which I'll decline to comment about since night should sort that whole business out.

Gee thanks, that's really helpful. I don't suppose you'd humour the new guy and detail your case just a bit? I did read all thirteen pages, FYI...

If you've read all thirteen pages, how could you possibly miss all the reasons to be voting lngrr? They've been laid out. I don't like this post.

I'm keeping my powder dry until I work out the players a but more. Fferylt is the only player I do know and I noticed that her early posts were quite tentative. Like post 81. Town fferylt is very activist in my experience, whereas as scum she can take a bit to find her feet.

JasonWazza looks the most objectively scummy though, based on (what I saw as) his evasive responses.

This post, though, I do like. I feel the same way about ffery.

[Amrun]

@Amrun, also I would argue that anyone being seen as scum could be seen to be playing "poorly", since the whole point is to look towny as town or scum (barring say, if you have a power role, in which you might want to stay somewhere in the middle.) Also, what specifically don't you like about Ffery?

There is a very big difference between playing anti-town and being scummy and anyone who has told you different is a liar. For example, right now, you're literally making the argument that poor play = scum, and Marquis and Jason are playing the worst right now, so therefore we should vote for them. (You haven't even soundly stated that you think they are scum for this, for the record. It seems very clear cut: they are Not Playing Right, so they should Get Lynched, but not as a policy, oh no.) This, you see, is not really poor play, but it is more likely to come from a scum mindset that is more concerned with achieving mislynches than reading people, therefore it is scummy.

ffery is just being really cautious. That sets her on my radar, but it's not something she hasn't/can't do as town, so we'll see.

[Amrun]

Falcon, Colin once directly prevented Harry from dying via his camera.

[Amrun]

Lngrr is still "pressure voting." Kill with fire.

[Amrun]

Marquis is town btw.

[Amrun]

Lngrr is still "pressure voting." Kill with fire.

Why is "pressure voting" a problem?

Near the deadline of Day 1, pressure voting is anti-town and also this:



It's distancing from your own vote. It's awful bad terrible.


Re: Marquis, because of genuine tone. Also, mostly unrelated, but not one person has brought up a valid point about why he is scum.

[Amrun]

How would you know if I would know genuine tone...? We haven't played together before, and you wouldn't know if I was right or wrong unless you were scum.

It's distancing from your own vote by downgrading it from a real you're-scum-so-you-should-die vote to a "pressure" vote. You also said earlier it was only because of "bad play," which you find scummy for really horrible reasons. Your stance on Squilly was never strong either and has the commonality of you always going for the lowest common denominator.

[Amrun]

catch up tomorrow

[Amrun]

Sorry, guys, life hit me like a truck.

My take is that one of them are probably lying. Look at my skepticism when Jason claimed, and how much I pressed Channel on the viability of both of them.

I am just going to claim now since half the game is lurky anyways.

I am nearly Headless Nick, a one shot Doc, and Hogwart aligned. (Curious that neither of our two claims mentioned anything about being aligned.) I can try to protect someone each night from the Basilisk: if I do so, then they get stumped. If not successful, I can keep trying. Once the basilisk dies, I become a normal 1 shot doc.

Given the wording, I have a feeling the Basilisk is an SK instead of straight scum.

Can you explain to me how this role is, in any way, a one-shot?

Ginny Weasley, a Hogwarts-aligned Townie and a Gryffindor who wants to eliminate any known threats to Hogwarts. I'm also one out of only two characters who fit the "lovers" flavor in the first post, though I'm fairly sure Harry and I aren't lovers in the mafia sense.

Like I said, I also have a huge town read on Lngrrrr for the claim. Everything about it makes sense, especially his delivery.

I don't know what to think of CDB except slight scum.

I am very confident that Jason is scum. Why?

-I don't think there are 2 town JOATs in the game.
-People seemed to be ignoring him for the past few days which isn't exactly a scum tell but I dislike that certain people are pushing the idea of him as scum to the side so easily.
-His weak powers when compared to Stubbs' claimed powers make sense when you add in access to a factional nightkill.
-Finally, 3/4 claims we have today are all Gryffindor house. Yes, the word is "Hogwarts-aligned", but being the odd one out and a second JOAT doesn't help Jason's claim much.
-p.s. Colin, Nearly Headless Nick, and Ginny all encountered and were (near) victims of the Basilisk. Not Filch. It makes sense that Filch is working against Harry Potter in the 2nd book, despite his overall actions toward the end of the series.

1 and a half hours left today. I'm getting lynched. Sorry that my activity kind of sucked, but please follow up on this

I just want to point out that actually, Filch was probably saved from being a victim by Mrs. Norris and was very close to the basilisk.

@Marquis, thanks for that. And sorry for tunnelling you so much if you are town.

I thought tunneling was scummy? Hate this post. Pre-apologizing for town flip.

Upon thinking more, I actually think Stubb's claim makes sense. If we are to assume that roles are at least somewhat similar to this game, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5126063, the scum are given pretty good characters for safe-claims and they can choose whatever role they want a role PM crafted for.

I think Colin Creevey is a rather unlikely character to be provided as a safe-claim.

Even in the event that it was, it is unlikely that Stubbs would ask for a JOAT claim (I guess he might if he didn't know who Colin Creevey was but I am sure his scum-mates would help him out with that as occurred in the linked game). Stubbs leans town to me. Read through of Stubs's meta briefly shows that his behavior isn't very unusual as town.

UNVOTE:

Marquis's latest posts sound very genuine so I think he is town as well. If we can get an alternative lynch, we should. Depends on how many people are online and don't like the Marquis's lynch. I think Toomai or PenguinAlien are both appealing ones. Thoughts?

This post and most other f16 posts are EXTREMELY town. I do want to disagree; if anything, Colin seems like the likeliest of all fakeclaim characters.

I was roleblocked last night :/

And he claimed an RB himself. NO.

Here is what I don't get... If Stubbs was roleblocked, why weren't Jason or I killed? Scum trying to introduce WIFOM and have town mislynch? Just throws me off.

This post makes me feel a bit better about LnGrr, but wouldn't you have prevented a kill on Jason if you were protecting him?

Sure, I can get behind this.

VOTE: Toomai

Please do something.

If you are town, as I am beginning to suspect, please care less about who is doing things and care more about who is scum.

124 is terrible where he asks ffery what the point is of having a look for passive voice in lngrrrR's town game. I think it is fairly obvious: if LngrrrR generally uses passive voice as town, then it becomes a null tell. LngrrrR was also the hot topic for discussion at the time, so checking up his meta is hardly a distraction.

The whole "passive voice" argument seemed like pointless, pedantic garbage to me and went on way too long.

The amount of null reads he has in 181 is troubling coupled with no attempt at developing any reads. 183 is just hoping someone else makes things happen. I really don't like 186 - pre-emptively justifying why he is dead weight in this game by referring to his other games. If he was dead weight before, makes no sense to not try and improve.

You think I'm not trying to get reads or improve at playing? I sit here for probably half an hour per post trying to come up with questions and reads, and come up with pointless headaches instead. I am a bad player and will probably stay that way for several years whether I try to improve or not. That does not mean I am scum; that means I am a policy lynch.

271 where he says Jason has been more helpful doesn't sit right either. Jason had not done anything up until that point other than promise reads.

That was my point. I felt Marquis had done less than promise reads.

Please do something.

I'll do a votecount analysis or something. At least I'm capable of that.

For some reason, this post, especially the end, strikes me as townish.

Penguin is playing to her scum-meta. I am going to read a few more games to verify before posting my entire case which might take a while.

VOTE: Penguin_Alien

This post comes off as not at all determined to find scum.

MSG spends a lot of time asking for other's opinions in a way that comes off as him looking for someone to sheep blame-free.

Except that it wouldn't be "blame-free." The sheep on a wagon will attract just as much scrutiny as those that provided reasoning or instigated the wagon.

He almost never gives opinions on other people's play;

Not true.
331, he says that JasonWazza is the most objectively scummy based on his evasive responses.
387, he says he doesn't like Jason's play and has his doubts about ffery and syryana.
433, he attempts to sort out the power roles, gives his opinion on each of them, and votes Stubbs.
502, he speculates that ffery not voting could be linked to the basilisk
532, he tells ffery that he wants to know why she has a townread on Syryana despite his low activity.

instead he asks them to see what they think of said people. I'd quote it from his ISO, but it's an easy read for anyone who cares to do so.

VOTE: MSG

There is no reason to believe that asking others for their reads is more likely to come from scum than town. Townies do it all the time. There is a clear town-motivation to do it: to gain a read not only on the target but on the player giving their opinion of the target when the target flips.

This reads like you trying to shoehorn scumtells and apply them to MSG. You've only looked at possible scum motivation without considering that there is an equally likely town motivation for his posts.

And this is completely different to how you play as town while matching up with the kind of manufactured scumtells you push on people as scum.

What is your experience with PA?


Today, I'm feeling ffery, Sryryana, f16, rach as most town (not in order).

Stubbs' claim sticks out like a sore thumb, and CDB dying over either of them supports the idea that one of the claimed JOATs is scum.

Not only is Colin more likely to be a fakeclaim, imo, the SHOTS themselves are not nuanced at all, unlike Jason's claim. Especially if we believe LnGrr's claim (and I think I do), I think we are looking at more nuanced roles here.

VOTE: Stubbs

Not liking PA either.

[Amrun]

@LnGrr:

The cdb kill is wifom, but there are lots of potential reasons for it. Let me lay down a few:

-they aren't afraid of your "doc" assuming it's true because they are not the basilisk kill
-they were particularly threatened by cdb; he is a good player and town was listening to him (though, of note, town listening to him on marquis led to a mislynch, making this SLIGHTLY less likely but still very reasonable esp considering our strong alliance)
-cdb was onto scum; if we assume that you are town, that indicates Stubbs the most
-there is scum in the two joats and they didn't want to hand up their buddy on a silver platter
-there is scum in the joats and they wanted to lend credibility to cdb's theory that both joats could be town
-there isn't scum in the two joats and wifom
-they WERE scared of your doc because they ARE the basilisk kill and decided to go for a guaranteed kill instead (which would make more sense to kill you, and if you live much longer I hope town takes note of this)
-particularly afraid of the organically forming town bloc and/or cdb's reputation

Some of these options are mutually exclusive, and not all of them are true. Perhaps it's none of the above, but I think at least a few of them were factors.

But those are the possibilities as I see it. It indicates a few things to me as being MOST likely:

-Scum are more likely to be among the more inexperienced players in the game most easily intimidated by cdb
-many of these reasons (though not all) have Stubbs being scum as a common factor, but not in so obvious way as to be a likely frame job

That, and Stubbs' own scummy play and circumspect claim, mean that Stubbs is easily the strongest candidate for lynch today (in my mind).

Lngrr, I'd still like you to clarify your claim.

P-edit: yes - though if there really were two joats, scum would have an rb probably. In any case, Stubbs is scummy as fuck and has claimed to have squandered his only ability-with-a-result. I really don't think his claim fits into the other claims, and I feel pretty confident that it's a lot more likely that you and Jason are town rather than you and Jason being scum together and Stubbs being town. Plus Stubbs is scummy OBV.

[Amrun]

Oh, I forgot a reason!

-Scum were PR hunting and thought cdb dropped a pr tell. IF both joats & lngrr are town, this is almost definitely not true, but the kill is odd enough that this is a point in favor of at least one of these being scum.

And I did forgot to add also that Stubbs' claim is even more unlikely to be true if lngrr is town -- way too much doc power for a one-kill (apparently) mini. So in essence Stubbs is double counter claimed, IMO. But his roles were more powerful so if he WERE town, scum was more likely to go for him last night, so it was better to leave him alive. And he's not dead.


Sorry for disjointed thoughts; trying to get back into mafia in general after a health break.

[Amrun]

Oh, if both Stubbs and Jason do turn out to be town, then that's a scum point for p_a or possibly rach, because it reminds me of the the strategy scum used last HP game leaving the masons alive. This is paranoid, I know, but I can't shake it.

[Amrun]

I don't think it's unilaterally out of the question that there are two joats in a game. I just don't think context supports the idea that that's the situation here.

[Amrun]

And he did not say who he targeted either.

He did claim to target me, but later and not initially.

[Amrun]

I can't get around the fact that Stubbs claim is factually wrong. I'll go with a Stubbs lynch. I think he is at L-2 right now.

What do you mean by "factually wrong?"

[Amrun]

Eh, I think placing too much emphasis on "now-defender" is probably a mistake.

P_A is a solid player and doesn't need to make up "BS" reasons to vote for anyone. Regardless of alignment, it was probably an honest mistake.

[Amrun]

What, exactly, do you think stubbs could prove?

[Amrun]

I get what you're saying, but I don't think "now defender" means she didn't mix up the timeline.

[Amrun]

Stubbs, clearly.

[Amrun]

What, exactly, do you think stubbs could prove?

I can get a guilty cop result on someone? obviously...
I can RB a NK.

Neither of those prove anything, ftr, but you already used your cop shot -- are you telling me you're a joat that doesn't blow his load with an rb?

[Amrun]

fleahaeheaheheahehaha

I love it when my lynches happen. :3

Jason is pretty incontrovertibly town at this point. There are about 3 pages I haven't read. Might do it in a min might do it later.

[Amrun]

JK I totally read it, and it refreshed me on this game.

I want to do more analysis, but here are my initial thoughts.

JasonWazza and F-16 are people I will never lynch in this game.

I am disinclined to lynch Rach and ffery.

About ffery specifically, I was feeling weird about her not hammering yesterday but then I remembered how she was the first one to realize how LEGIT my Stubbs argument was, and keyed into a particular part of it. This felt like town ffery.

I like nacho's catch up, but I mean like, he's taking pretty safe stances here. P_A is a general scumread, and I'm so town at this point that it's actually funny that scum can't even kill me unless they want to leave Jason alive, which is even FUNNIER. (This doesn't happen often, so let me revel in it, okay?)

In any case, powerlynching within the remaining group of

{Toomai, MSG, P_A} is extremely likely to net the remaining scum. (Am I missing anyone?)

I feel pretty sure that a re-read at least of Day 1 where I tried to start dat Stubbs wagon (and successfully pushed him to a claim) will be even more englightening.

[Amrun]

I'm more inclined to lynch within {Toomai, MSG} given the tracker result, actually.

I'll decide which one of those later. My gut says Toomai but idk.

[Amrun]

I'm going to analyze them when I'm in the mood (ie probably when it's not hte weekend and I'm not v/la).

At this point, it's mostly the things I said Day 1 about Toomai + PoE.

Deep analysis might change my opinion entirely, who knows.

[Amrun]

F16: you really don't see any possible scum motivation in backing off of ffery when it becomes clear she won't be lynched, on focusing on her alone and ignoring the rest of the thread.

Toomai: when Stubbs flipped scum, what did you think?

[Amrun]

Ffery: who is scum?


Falcon: I understand your point. It's a good one, actually. I'll keep it in mind when I re-read.

[Amrun]

oops, catch up tonight

[Amrun]

oh thank goodness I'm not replaced. had a bit of craziness.

[Amrun]

I am inclined to vote Toomai.

[Amrun]

We need a flip. We're going around in circles.

VOTE: Toomai

[Amrun]

I believe that is one of the few slots in my "lynch with fire and win the game" list.

[Amrun]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

Simply because I think Toomai is the most likely to flip scum.

Purely going by informative lynch, I think MSG/JacobSavage is the most informatively lynch (and I don't like how he entered the game, either).

I would vote on either of these wagons happily, with no second thoughts -- however, until it becomes time to coalesce, my vote will be on my preference, which is Toomai.


I am not a huge fan of F-16's breakdown. In particular, I think his reasonings for ruling out the last two pairings are ??? But, it matters very little because I'll eat my shoe if he's scum and I incidentally agree with him that I don't want to lynch ffery today. If I need another reason, her response to F16, particularly the "why am not a lynch candidate," came off townie to me.

[Amrun]

Toomai has done almost no scumhunting all game, and what scumhunting he has done did not come off genuinely to me and does not gel with itself. His content contains almost exclusively excuses, and his behavior is really strange around the Stubbs lynch and subsequent flip.

I really want to post but I have nothing to contribute. I have weak, aggregate reads on four players and doubt the correctness of all of them.

Hoping something happens because I don't know how to make things happen.

Just a few examples of excuses. At this point, he is voting exclusively for "bad" plays, like on JasonWazza for ... being Jason.

I like the case on Stubbs, I'll think about it more while

I'm on V/LA for today

.

Look at dat fencesit on scum.

Not sure what to make of Stubbs' reaction. He's right about Marquis doing just about nothing but a meta read and an unexplained read, but I'm not sure how putting together a reads list helps one get into a game.

I'm a bit weirded out by Jason's behaviour. My first game ever on this site, Jason was the one who was forcing everybody else to participate. The fact that he refuses to do so now, could mean he's scum, but it could also mean he's onto something with Amrun, as he claims.

This however looks like just fencesitting.

He says all this, but never votes Stubbs, and in fact, is still leaning towards Jason later.

Vote: Marquis

Frankly I feel JW has been more helpful.

Powering the counterwagon.

How has Jason been more helpful?

At least he promised to explain his antics. He shouldn't be given a pass until he does, but Marquis has the bigger wagon right now, and the deadline's in two days.

A bit of a strange post on Jason -- my belief that scum would not want to flip a JOAT here makes this tick my scumdar.

Holy cow dat wagon speed.

LEGENDARY, GLORIOUS, MAGNIFICENT CATCHUP POST!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: JasonWazza

impressed.gif

I know you gave your reasons before but this still feels a bit non-sequitur.

To be honest though, while I don't like how fast the wagon piled up, there is a deadline within a day, and it's not like he wasn't a lynch candidate before.

If JW doesn't deliver the goods in his next post, I'll hammer.

Intent to hammer Jason over Stubbs -- willing to vote anyone but Stubbs, essentially, when the only person he's given real reasoning on maybe being scum IS stubbs.

Yeah the more I turn it over the more I think the Creevy claim doesn't fit. Not lynching it today though.

This post is just... It should speak for itself.

Here is what I don't get... If Stubbs was roleblocked, why weren't Jason or I killed? Scum trying to introduce WIFOM and have town mislynch? Just throws me off.

Yeah this is rather suspicious. Leaving both claimed JOATs alive for the mindgames isn't hard to believe, but the uncountered 1-shot Doctor is somewhat. Maybe they were fishing for an unclaimed PR? That would presume that both JOAT claims are town, which I currently don't think is likely.

I don't like the wording here -- "which I currently don't think is likely." Very weasel word-y, leaving hismself open to declaring both JOATs town if the town swings that way, even as he assumes both town in his speculations.

Well my reads update is that JW and FFF are town due to claims and everyone else is in a big pile of cluelessness.

I guess I'll wait for Nachomamma8 to get caught up.

So he concludes JW is town but makes no comment on Stubbs? He's a "pile of cluelessness" along with everyone else, despite doubting his claims etc?

I also find the level of claims and partial claims a bit unbelievable in a game that is not role madness.

Theme games are often a bit more power-heavy than normal games.

I know I said I was going to vote JW, but the Stubbs claim seems wronger and wronger the more I think about it. It just doesn't fit, not in flavour nor with LnGrrrR's claim (which is much more believable). Besides, even though JW is being unhelpful, his claim is still reasonably believable.

Vote: StubbsKVM

Very strange hop when he finally switches over.

And then after Stubbs flipped, Toomai didn't update his reads at ALL, and I had to ask him about it. He provided some random null -> town etc thing, but it didn't actually make sense with the gamestate and is indicative of made-up reads imo.

[Amrun]

Me likey toomai lynch. Me have fever. Me sleep 20 hours today.

[Amrun]

Toomai, this isn't an information lynch. Is this all you're planning on giving us as far as final thoughts go?

[Amrun]

Could scum have a one shot redirector or somethin? I iz confuzed????

Why Falcon?

This reaction seems genuine to me -- it's not like falcon was getting lynched, so why not falcon?


I am very interested by Nacho's claim. I'll just go ahead and say it at this point.

I'm Draco Malfoy, and I am town.

[Amrun]

Idk, tbh. Jason was a JOAT, and that had some investigative abilities...

[Amrun]

Okay, I took my paranoia hat off. Nacho is probably town.

[Amrun]

Well Draco wasn't all that bad in the Second Flim, where his father put riddles Diary into Ginny's books.

So it is quite possible that Draco is good at this point, but i wouldn't put it past him to be scum.

This is very vague when someone has claimed Draco - am I scum?

[Amrun]

...............

[Amrun]

Jacob -- am I scum?

[Amrun]

Well Draco wasn't all that bad in the Second Flim, where his father put riddles Diary into Ginny's books.

So it is quite possible that Draco is good at this point, but i wouldn't put it past him to be scum.

This is very vague when someone has claimed Draco - am I scum?

The thing is, flavor wise, you could be, the key word being could.

However it's not such a thing that i would pursue right now, so why so worried?

Do I really read as "worried" to you? Maybe it's time for some recalibration on your part.

Quite frankly, only your credible claim keeps you off the chopping block and I find your noncommittal bullshit, especially given your early game, to be scummy on its own.

JacobSavage's is even worse, however.

[Amrun]

Does anyone realistically see a reliable team that JacobSavage is not on? I don't.

[Amrun]

That claim came off so town.

I'm fairly comfortable with a ffery JacobSavage team.

VOTE: JacobSavage

I believe this is L-1.

[Amrun]

I feel obligated to poitn out that Rach could be a scum tracker. But I don't think she is.

[Amrun]

I don't buy the Mrs. Norris claim due to the Filch claim.

[Amrun]

Oh my God, my brain is full of fuck. I do not know how JacobSavage was not scum and it's FUCKING WITH MY BRAIN.

I'm at a loss.

If I were to toss down a vote right now, it would be on ffery, but this is far too important for things like that. We have enough flips now that whoever is scum is not going to be obvious. They have done something strong.

My second choice is nacho. His vote on me today feels off in the way he did it as opposed to things he's said in the past and how he's said it. But meh, I thought he was town before.

I have had a townread on every single person left at some point -- a;slfkja;sldkfj . I need to re-examine some things.

[Amrun]

Ah, in that case he was lying. Allow me to clarify because I didn't really read his iso. I am a reporter follower and voyeur, the latter two were used on P_A. When Jason voyeured it got that she was investigated, when he followed he got nothing. He never used the reporter, so I still had it replacing in. He probably lied to save his skin as scum would think he was a VT. Paid off didn't it?

what the fuck, jason.

this is so outlandish that i feel as if lucky is not lying. jesus.


also, it's possible there's one scum left, just more likely it's two.

But to be honest, I still feel like anyone that looks at me and stubbs interaction day 1 and seriously things I'm still scum is lulz. I may allow it simply due to PoE, but I'll laugh so hard if I'm lynched today.


But it seriously begs the question why jason/lucky is still alive. lucky's entrance makes me feel even more conflicted - as it is really not-scum-oriented play. So probably my lingering doubts there are wrong. I dont' see the scum motivation for admitting to lying in order to try and CLEAR someone who could reasonably be a lynch today, especially as I've claimed Draco Malfoy VT.

[Amrun]

Even if Jason/lucky slot is town, WHY he is still alive bears looking at. The scum's n1 kill was really transparent and it made stubbs scum... Theyre trying to acheive something with their nightkills - so what are they achieving here?

[Amrun]

Sryana felt scummy Day 1.

Fleh, you know the fuck what, I'm kind of leaning toward Nacho right now. I need some time to sit on this.

[Amrun]

but as you can see by my typing my sanity/awakeness is quickly fleeing - revisit tomorrow, love you all

[Amrun]

Jesus.

It was obviously Nacho after the end of the day yesterday.

I'm v/la every weekend -- obviously I wasn't going to post. Nacho knows that, too.

GJ, though, I think the scumteam played pretty well overall, though I honestly think the town probably played better and should have pulled it out in the end. But they didn't think at all on the last day so that's their own faults.

I didn't listen to my paranoia about nacho enough, and that's my problem ... ugh.

My reads were pretty perfect as of yesterday, but I didn't have enough confidence in them. It didn't end up mattering because ffery got lynched of course. But blegh.

[Amrun]

/pout

[Amrun]

nachooooo


how did you manage to get me lynched in this game!!!

:'(

HOW