Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: Amrun

More revenge.

[penguin_alien]

What, now Quirrell's supposed to be logical? He let Voldemort live on the back of his head...!

[penguin_alien]

...so you think Amrun could be scum, but ChannelDelibird is scum for voting him. Uh-huh.

VOTE: Squilly

[penguin_alien]

Why is the Squilly wagon bad and the Amrun one good?

[penguin_alien]

Vote on Amrun now legit, lynch away.

why would you vote on someone you have no proof that he's scum and not be scum
first scum list
ChannelDelibird
Amrun-I still thing he could be scum
UNVOTE:
VOTE:

ChannelDelibird

Fine, I'll bite. Squilly, please explain your thought process here and what changed to make you go back to Amrun.

[penguin_alien]

I see where people say Squilly was scum-hunting, but it still seems like the kind of fake scum hunting scum like to do. Jason reads sketchy to me, but that might be residual paranoia from our last game together. LnGrrrR's reaction to the wagon looks worse than the reason he was wagoned in the first place.

[penguin_alien]

I'll see what Squilly's replacement does.

UNVOTE: Squilly

Stubbs, what's your rationale for voting Squilly-slot over JasonWazza?

[penguin_alien]

Tempted to put Stubbs at L-1. Much as I thought Squilly was scummy, and Marquis is pinging oddly, that Stubbs and LnGrrrR are on the wagon makes me uneasy. Whereas I like nearly all of the Stubbs wagon participants. Will see what Stubbs has to say when he gets back in here.

[penguin_alien]

Stubbs, what's your rationale for voting Squilly-slot over JasonWazza?

Pressure votes don't seem to work on Jason.

But if he's a scum read, he's a scum read and thus worth voting. And pressure votes without follow-up pressure aren't super-useful.

VOTE: Stubbs

L-1

[penguin_alien]

I don't think I've played with town-Jason, but his pointed comments and veneer of...being infalliable? are reminiscent of his scum play from the large Mainstream game where he snowed us town. I don't have town reads on Marquis or LnGrrrR, but I don't trust Jason at all right now.

UNVOTE: Stubbs
VOTE: JasonWazza

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: JasonWazza

Not sure which claim makes more sense. Given the different action sets, the Filch claim is more in keeping with flavor, and IIRC, all the town PRs in the first HP game were adult characters.

[penguin_alien]

Losing a post sucks but you do need to explain your reaction to Stubbs's claim at an absolute minimum.

PEdit: p_a, why does one have to make more sense than the other?

Two JOAT claims. Could be town-town, town-scum, or scum-scum. Considering how much sense either of them makes is kind of the point. Jason not addressing the other JOAT claim is sketchy, and I'd rather not speculate further until he does, as it seems like we have more time now.

[penguin_alien]

...the part where Stubbs claimed JOAT?

[penguin_alien]

I'd vote for LnGrrrR or Marquis, but I want to think more about it. If we're not touching the JOAT claims yet, that stands a decent chance of eating up our margin of error, which makes it more important to lynch right here.

[penguin_alien]

fferyllt, Syryana, what are you thinking?

[penguin_alien]

Yes, Toomai. I wouldn't have claimed normally, but Channel and Amrun have their head up their butts.

Also, Im pretty sure there is a serial killer in this game.

OK, so given that you're claiming a PR, what's your take on the dual JOAT claims?

[penguin_alien]

Losing a post sucks but you do need to explain your reaction to Stubbs's claim at an absolute minimum.

PEdit: p_a, why does one have to make more sense than the other?

Two JOAT claims. Could be town-town, town-scum, or scum-scum. Considering how much sense either of them makes is kind of the point. Jason not addressing the other JOAT claim is sketchy, and I'd rather not speculate further until he does, as it seems like we have more time now.

P_A, on reread this post kind of pings, that you included scum-scum.

What made you think this could be a possibility?

Their interactions with one another's wagons weren't super-organic, especially Jason's intent to hammer. And neither one really pushed the other on the claim conflict the way I'd expect town to if someone else impinged on their role. (She says, from the perspective of having had scum accidentally receive my town character as a fakeclaim and subsequently flipping out. And that was just character, not the role name) If one flipped scum, our inclination would be to let the other slide. Plus, Nexus loves giving scum daytalk, which makes that kind of maneuver easier to coordinate.

Having said that, the part where LnGrrrR claimed an adult character with a PR and knowing that the PRs were with non-child characters last game (don't know what Peeves is) makes me inclined to believe Jason over Stubbs. So I'd lynch Marquis to avoid a no-lynch, but I think I like the Stubbs wagon better.

[penguin_alien]

Peeves was a poltergeist

I'm aware; I'm just not sure he fits into the 'adult characters' as a ghost. And the Weasley twins were Siblings, so it's not 100%, I guess.

[penguin_alien]

Not sure I'll be able to post in this thread again before deadline, so voting my strongest scum read.

VOTE: Stubbs

[penguin_alien]

Oh and starting to doubt Channel's towniness. It should be pretty obvious that I wasn't "excited" about having to claim, since I have been trying to throw Amrun and him off of me all game with not-so-subtle hints. Channel seems less sincere; Amrun just seems to be too stuck on how awesome he is at reading people.

Not seeing why LnGrrrR would start the process of undermining CDB's towniness then NK him.

she only voted twice in the day and managed to avoid having a vote on at the end of d1.

cdb suggested the basilisk should be mafia, not SK (which makes sense to me,) but would need some mechanism to be released

it struck me the 2 things could be connected

In terms of the basilisk, it's likely to be part of the Mafia--just like Voldemort, Quirrell, and the Troll were all part of the same plot, the Basilisk was tied to Tom Riddle and...not really sure about a third option. Lockhart could be an antagonist, but I'd expect him to be some kind of weird third party in that case.

If the Basilisk victims are in the game, maybe if the Basilisk player does a NK on one of them something happens, like a no-reveal.

Still more skeptical of Stubbs based on game design factors, but it's weak. More odd is that he'd be roleblocked at all. An investigation is the first thing he'd logically use, and the earlier he uses it, the better for scum: he outs his investigation, which he had to pick a target for with less info. And from being a scum rolecop last game, I believe Nexus's mod policy is that if you have an X-shot role and it's blocked, you retain the shot. Letting his shot get through now is better for scum than later.

I tend to think scum were on the Marquis wagon early, another factor for the Stubbs scum read. Toomai jumping in to 'help' Stubbs doesn't look good, but it's not a strong tell.

Jason keeping mum tracks.

[penguin_alien]

@Jason,

Here's the plan. Either scumhunt, or give results, or no protection for you, because you haven't done one towny thing yet this game.

@Rach, what are your current reads.

@PA, you had Stubbs and I as pinging scumdar yesterDay. Who is pinging now?

.

My thoughts on scum blocking Stubbs still stand from earlier. I don't think you're scum since, like I said, it makes little sense for you to start undermining CDB and then NK him. Maybe if he was a threat to others on your team and flips bear that out, but it's a point against you being scum. Your hop on Toomai is lazy, but not necessarily scummy, and it does seem to have prodded him into activity.

MSG spends a lot of time asking for other's opinions in a way that comes off as him looking for someone to sheep blame-free. He almost never gives opinions on other people's play; instead he asks them to see what they think of said people. I'd quote it from his ISO, but it's an easy read for anyone who cares to do so.

VOTE: MSG

[penguin_alien]

Prod dodge; catching up now.

[penguin_alien]

Penguin is playing to her scum-meta. I am going to read a few more games to verify before posting my entire case which might take a while.

VOTE: Penguin_Alien

This post comes off as not at all determined to find scum.

MSG spends a lot of time asking for other's opinions in a way that comes off as him looking for someone to sheep blame-free.

Except that it wouldn't be "blame-free." The sheep on a wagon will attract just as much scrutiny as those that provided reasoning or instigated the wagon.

He almost never gives opinions on other people's play;

Not true.
331, he says that JasonWazza is the most objectively scummy based on his evasive responses.
387, he says he doesn't like Jason's play and has his doubts about ffery and syryana.
433, he attempts to sort out the power roles, gives his opinion on each of them, and votes Stubbs.
502, he speculates that ffery not voting could be linked to the basilisk
532, he tells ffery that he wants to know why she has a townread on Syryana despite his low activity.

instead he asks them to see what they think of said people. I'd quote it from his ISO, but it's an easy read for anyone who cares to do so.

VOTE: MSG

There is no reason to believe that asking others for their reads is more likely to come from scum than town. Townies do it all the time. There is a clear town-motivation to do it: to gain a read not only on the target but on the player giving their opinion of the target when the target flips.

I'll give you that he expresses his dislike of Jason's play. After that, flavor speculation, some idea that fferyllt isn't voting because of the basilisk(?) which he doesn't explain and frankly I don't get, and asking someone else about their opinion on a player without any speculation of his own. Yes, such questions in making others commit to reads do give us something to work from if one of the involved players flip, but he's not leaving any such trail himself.

Since then he posted a reads list--great, but 7 of 10 are uncertain and blatantly uncommitted. One is town on you, his now-defender, one on a doc claim that revealed the basilisk earlier than scum would want to, and one is the same scum read as at the start of the game. Looks scummy to me.

I don't think scum-Amrun would go on at such length about scum motivations for the NK for fear of letting something slip--town read.

[penguin_alien]

Fruit vendor plus one-shot doc that may only stump rather than save plus weak JOAT =/= strong JOAT. And the fruit vendor fits as a negative utility town role.

UNVOTE: MSG

Intent to vote for Stubbs pending his checking in here.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry, I meant that it doesn't fit with the other roles. Fruit vendor's negative utility because it gives irrelevant results to roles like Jason's claimed set of powers. I'm waiting to vote because if we're wrong and we do have all this town power in Stubbs, I don't want to set up a derp hammer. I'm probably paranoid, but I've seen a lot of those in games lately.

[penguin_alien]

@ Penguin, can you explain why:

1) MSG would ask people for their opinions to sheep them when he could merely sheep the wagons that were forming if he wanted to sheep?
2) Why would a sheep get less attention than players that provide original reasoning?
3) Why does MSG having a townread on a "would-be" defender make him scummy when he would have no idea that I was going to be a "defender?"

1) This way looks like he's being actively persuaded rather than being opportunistic.
2) A question of blame, at least early on.
3) I was wrong about the timing of that. So he does have one independent town read.

[penguin_alien]

I'll agree that the first statement is plausible. I don't understand the second one at all. Can you elaborate? The real problem though is with your third statement. You say you were wrong about the timing. Yet, in the post you make, you call me MSG's "now-defender" suggesting that you knew the timing of events all along and made no mistake.

One is town on you, his now-defender,

So, at the time you made the statement, clearly you knew that the defense happened after MSG had posted the reads list. If you mistakenly confused the timing to think that MSG posted a town-read on someone defending him, why would you say "now-defender" as opposed to just "defender?"

I was wrong, flat-out. I thought the posts had come in the other order. Why would scum-me hang a case on something I knew to be wrong, undermining the whole idea? If I was trying to elide the issue, I would have said defender.

1) and 2) are related. Blind sheeping is scummy, whereas sheeping post-persuasion, less so. I don't like that MSG isn't putting out any of his own arguments when he engages others. Go look at his reads list. He has the claimed doc and you as town. Then nothing firm until Jason, a static read that, if we're right about Stubbs, is someone scum would love to see lynched first. What do you make of his reads list?

[penguin_alien]

The issue to me i that she's been hedgy and has repeatedly gone after low hanging fruit.

...but we all know the high hanging fruit is sour grapes--Aesop taught us that!

No, seriously, who's the high hanging fruit you think I should be scum reading? Because, while this is a good group of players, I don't think any of us are notoriously hard lynches.

Elsewhere,

VOTE: Stubbs

This is L-1.

[penguin_alien]

I don't think scum-Amrun would go on at such length about scum motivations for the NK for fear of letting something slip--town read.

F-16, I assume you mean this comment? I'm talking about the NK analysis, not set-up analysis. It wasn't a comment on Amrun's play in particular based on any meta but rather an observation that her engaging in discussing NK motives didn't read as something scum would do--scum don't want to explain why they Nk'd where they did or give town more theories.

[penguin_alien]

Nacho thinks I'm scum for hedging in early game. Mm-hm. I'd like to think we've played enough games at this point that he'd expect that kind of hesitancy out of me as any alignment.

Looking at one of Stubbs' meatier posts:

I'm having a hard time getting reads, but here's an attempt. Only slight scumreads on Jason for refusing to participate, Squilly for empty votes and Rach for having 2 reads. I'm having especially a lot of difficulty reading Amrun, so I just put him at null. LNG I think is just frustrated town.

Town

oriole

Fegelein

Leaning Town

ChannelDelibird

fferyllt

LnGrrrR

Null

Syryana

penguin_alien

Toomai

Amrun

Leaning Scum

JasonWazza

RachMarie

Squilly

Scum

N/A


P-Edit: Okay so Rach might be town too.

Colors are mine, FTR. Green is conf-town to me, blue is my current strong town reads.

I tend to think that he put one buddy in null and one in leaning town. That makes fferyllt and either Nacho or Toomai scum based on my current reads. I think RachMarie and MSG are town. I need to read the spate of posts that made Toomai such a strong town read for people, but if I concur I'd want to lynch from {fferyllt, Nacho}.

Stubbs' ISO is also rather sparse in interactions with both of those slots, but I might be working from confirmation bias.

At the risk of outguessing the mod, I doubt scum has a third active PR besides the semi-strongman Basilisk and JOAT, so Jason's result does nothing to clear me of anything except Basilisk status.

[penguin_alien]

Why is Feg/me a strong townread?

Not so much Feg, but your replace-in reminds me of the newbie game of mine you recently replaced into. And unless you and MSG are scum together, I don't see where you refuting my push on him comes from anything other than town you. Sure, white-knighting, but it felt like you put in more effort than that.

[penguin_alien]

Activity up-tick, trying to sort people out. Like I said, it's reminiscent of the other game to me. Some of it might be confirmation bias, as I feel like a lot of my reads are stemming from my unease with Nacho's read of me plus a niggling feeling that fferyllt is pushing a quirky case on me.

Toomai's OK; not sure I'm getting a huge town vibe from him. I like his VCA at least.

[penguin_alien]

Why would scum want us to know about a special killing mechanic they had before the first night kill?

[penguin_alien]

F-16 you gonna maybe give penguin fruit?

You proposed a plan that's somewhat dependent on scum not knowing whether it's going to be implemented; why would you press for confirmation?

Toomai, can you explain in your own words what you think has been scummy about my play? I'm apparently your strongest scum read, but as it stands you're approaching the game like you're strictly an observer, unable to influence anything. It reads most like a townie who knows he's town and sees his only role as documenting a case rather than being involved, but it could come from awkward scum.

Any comments on your strongest non-PR claiming town reads? Because there's a difference of about 6% between your top town reads and top scum read; at what point do you consider your graphed reads to be significant?

[penguin_alien]

Toomai, how is Nacho still null to you? Given that you have categories of weak null-X, you can't even put Nacho on one side of the fence or the other? Also, do you think only town can be sensible/have good reasoning/make good points?

[penguin_alien]

I agree with your observation on Nacho that in the cited Mini game he came in with clear opinions as town, and one of the two panned out as scum. Still not seeing town-Nacho based on other games of actually playing with him, but then I also haven't ever played a game where he subbed in, IIRC.

I've played more (exclusively?) with fferyllt when she's been hydra'd, but again this doesn't feel like town-fferyllt. I can't articulate it, beyond that it's like fferyllt is more overtly aggressive and less bridge-buildy than normal?

Stubbs' read list as discussed earlier makes me think there's definitely scum in {fferyllt, MSG} and {Nacho, Toomai} with the former more likely in each case.

MSG is my weakest town read pending RachMarie getting active again. Reading over his ISO now, he shifted to a more generally conciliatory stance in how he related to everyone, and I can't tell if it's a scum player switching things up or a town player adjusting to others.

Toomai's making me a bit nutty with his generic reads--it's like pulling teeth to get a straight answer out of him that doesn't go back to 1% this and graph that. I think it's a style thing, but his reads all feel like IIOA.

F-16, how would your reads change if I was the lynch for today and you would then know I was town?

[penguin_alien]

I'm not meta-reading Toomai at this point. I resort to it sometimes, but I trust my knowledge of people based on actually playing with them better than reading past games, given confirmation bias and my own reading habits.

Toomai's latest list of individual posts and his reactions to them--some of it revolves around people pointing things out. Some of it's approving of the content of posts, but there's no personal investment there. Such as saying something is sensible, or reasonable--scum are rarely gibbering idiots; scum can be reasonable and sensible and make good points. His reads aren't based on alignment-indicative things from what I can tell. In the above list, his negatives are for filler (if it's coming from town) and an argument he doesn't like. Not one that he's refuting or pointing out problems with--he just doesn't like it. And nearly everything is weighted the same, except the one Amrun post that's 'just town' with no further qualifiers.

The whole thing just leaves me thinking that even if it fits his meta, it's not a hard style to fake as scum.

I actually think fferyllt is being aggressive in a different way than normal for her town game. It's a less productive aggression? I'm not sure, and it's late, almost 2 AM; I'll come back to this tomorrow (or, well, later today...)

P-edit: reading MSG's posts as he made them and as I was reading the thread, I had a different sense of them than seeing them all together in his ISO. It tipped him back to a weak scum read, but a) I want to see what his replacement does [the not having fun part was odd; not seeing much in-thread to have changed], and b) I still find them more transparent than Toomai's, so push comes to shove I'd lynch Toomai first. But I think I'm more interested in lynching fferyllt or Nacho today.

[penguin_alien]

Maybe I'm used to reading fferyllt as a hydra, maybe I'm expecting her replacement game. But she makes a huge case on me Day Two, doesn't vote. Doesn't like Stubbs's mismatched claim, and when Stubbs flips scum, she doesn't seem to actually re-evaluate and reach new conclusions. There's discussion of things she thought about, but none of them actually impact her reads list as presented so far. The aggression I was talking about stems from that--she's saying things that sound like they probe the game state, but it's all past tense.

WRT Stubbs, reading fferyllt's ISO reminded me of his self-hammer. At the risk of jumping into bad territory, it seems more likely that scum would self-hammer with at least one teammate positioned to get town cred. His wagon was Amrun, RachMarie, Toomai, MSG, and me. I think he was doomed by Day Three anyways, because scum couldn't afford to let all the PRs live, and once one flipped his claim would look lousier. So the question is, how did his self-hammer benefit his faction? I'd say ending discussion, but the LnGrrrR NK didn't remove a super-vocal player.

I'd like to hear from Amrun and RachMarie here, given their early position on the scum wagon.

[penguin_alien]

OK, straight out--how did Stubbs flipping scum change your take on this game?

[penguin_alien]

Looking at one of Stubbs' meatier posts:

I'm having a hard time getting reads, but here's an attempt. Only slight scumreads on Jason for refusing to participate, Squilly for empty votes and Rach for having 2 reads. I'm having especially a lot of difficulty reading Amrun, so I just put him at null. LNG I think is just frustrated town.

Town

oriole

Fegelein

Leaning Town

ChannelDelibird

fferyllt

LnGrrrR

Null

Syryana

penguin_alien

Toomai

Amrun

Leaning Scum

JasonWazza

RachMarie

Squilly

Scum

N/A


P-Edit: Okay so Rach might be town too.

Colors are mine, FTR. Green is conf-town to me, blue is my current strong town reads.

I tend to think that he put one buddy in null and one in leaning town. That makes fferyllt and either Nacho or Toomai scum based on my current reads. I think RachMarie and MSG are town. I need to read the spate of posts that made Toomai such a strong town read for people, but if I concur I'd want to lynch from {fferyllt, Nacho}.

Stubbs' ISO is also rather sparse in interactions with both of those slots, but I might be working from confirmation bias.

Here's my big takeaway from Stubbs' flip. You even commented on it in #726, saying that at least I wasn't going after low-hanging fruit.

As of #741, you have Syryana as town for Day One play. And in #681, you said that if Syr was scum with Stubbs you thought he'd have bussed for town cred, not a change from your general town read on him.

[penguin_alien]

I'm saying that your read on Syr's play didn't actually change with Stubbs' flip. You solidified your town read on him, that's all.

Amrun and F-16 were already town reads.

(We do have Narnia as a completed game...although we weren't alive at the same time, I did read your part in it in detail)

Mod, I need to go V/LA for 48 hours; time-intensive company is in town. Thanks!

[penguin_alien]

Rach, do you think Stubbs would put a buddy in the straight-up town pile?

[penguin_alien]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

[penguin_alien]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

Do you disagree with Amrun that Toomai is a good choice of lynch? What is your most recent read on MSG? Who do you think is the best choice of lynch right now?

Yeah, I disagree about Toomai. Mostly because while he remains possibly scum, his ISO has almost no useful information, which means even if he did flip scum, there's not much in terms of pinpointing the last scum there.

MSG was getting townier, and if I had to guess I'd say the replace-out was towny. I want to see what JacobSavage does with the slot, as I've played with him a bit. My initial take is that scum would be more likely to come in with a plan of attack instead of kibitzing.

At the moment my lynch preference is Nacho.

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, I disagree about Toomai. Mostly because while he remains possibly scum, his ISO has almost no useful information, which means even if he did flip scum, there's not much in terms of pinpointing the last scum there.

Why does that even matter? If he is scum, then good. Lynching scum always trumps associative tells.

Did you ever make your decisions on the basis of whether the flip will provide associative tells before as town?

MSG was getting townier, and if I had to guess I'd say the replace-out was towny. I want to see what JacobSavage does with the slot, as I've played with him a bit. My initial take is that scum would be more likely to come in with a plan of attack instead of kibitzing.

At the moment my lynch preference is Nacho.

Can you link the game where you played with JacobSavage?

The way Amrun initially phrased it made me think she was looking for an information lynch. Her extensive case on Toomai says otherwise. I like that wagon better with considering the points she's made; it kind of got lost in all his graphing.

I don't make lynch decisions aiming for associative tells. Sometimes I make them based on which wagon seems to have more town reads or a more pro-town logic process, but no on the associative tells. Hence my not agreeing with Amrun when I thought that's what she wanted. Heck, my Nacho lynch preference definitely doesn't stem from that, since I can see Nacho being scum with Toomai, fferyllt, or JacobSavage.

The easy way to find the games I've played with JS is to go to my topics and search for him in the results. Doing that nets NY 161, Mainstream, and Street Racers, the latter two both Large Themes. I've played with an alt of his as well, but I'm not sure whether he wants that account publicized, so I'll omit that unless he says otherwise.

WRT Stubbs, reading fferyllt's ISO reminded me of his self-hammer. At the risk of jumping into bad territory, it seems more likely that scum would self-hammer with at least one teammate positioned to get town cred. His wagon was Amrun, RachMarie, Toomai, MSG, and me. I think he was doomed by Day Three anyways, because scum couldn't afford to let all the PRs live, and once one flipped his claim would look lousier. So the question is, how did his self-hammer benefit his faction? I'd say ending discussion, but the LnGrrrR NK didn't remove a super-vocal player.

This aspect of the game does make me more inclined to lynch Toomai or MSG. We had no scum dead before then, and the difference in momentum with zero versus one scum can be major. Stubbs self-hammering should indicate that he and his teammates (assuming daytalk) thought his lynch was inevitable and/or that they'd get some town cred from it.

F-16, what's your take on the way the Stubbs wagon went down/ended?

[penguin_alien]

fferyllt, why do you think Stubbs self-hammered, given the situation at the time?

[penguin_alien]

For the usual reasons. To stop discussion cold and to deprive town of a full bandwagon to analyze.

Yes, discussion was stopped, but we started the next day down a not-very-vocal player and with a much better sense of the lay of the land. And it wasn't a small wagon, like a 5p LyLo one where each vote had massive impact. Sure, we didn't have the hammer vote to analyse, but there were five other votes there. Do you think there's nothing relevant left? Since I'm your top scum read, I assume you think I was colluding with Stubbs to let him end the day. Knowing that I'm town, I'm most suspicious of Toomai:

I also find the level of claims and partial claims a bit unbelievable in a game that is not role madness.

Theme games are often a bit more power-heavy than normal games.

I know I said I was going to vote JW, but the Stubbs claim seems wronger and wronger the more I think about it. It just doesn't fit, not in flavour nor with LnGrrrR's claim (which is much more believable). Besides, even though JW is being unhelpful, his claim is still reasonably believable.

Vote: StubbsKVM

And MSG:

Whenever I look back at the d1 posts I'm inclined to go back to my original read on the 2 JOATs. Although I don't like the way he plays, JasonWazza was a lot more forthcoming about his JOAT powers and abilities (post 310.) StubbsKVM has ignored all questions to expand on the "1-shot roleblock, 1-shot doc and 1-shot cop" claim (post 257.) No detail about the claimed roleblock (post 472,) but it does provide a convenient excuse for having no result.

Am I flip-flopping? Yeah, I suppose, but it seems to me most likely that 1 of the 2 JOATs is not town. (More likely than both being town, which is more likely than both are lying scum.) I just can't see how we could have the 3 town power roles in a 13-player game. Scum would have to have some serious firepower to balance it out.

I think I just reached the same conclusion as Toomai and RachMarie. VOTE: StubbsKVM

The votes come from a slot--MSG--who voted Stubbs at the end of Day One versus Toomai who spent all of Day One saying Stubbs was suspect yet always had a reason not to vote.

I'm up for a Toomai lynch.

VOTE: Toomai

For Stubbs to self-hammer when his lynch wasn't inevitable and would provide us with the first scum flip, he had to have good reason to do it. Otherwise why not let a scum teammate hammer him for the cred? Unless they're both on the wagon, but in that case I'd bet on Toomai being one of them anyways.

[penguin_alien]

^L-1, BTW.

[penguin_alien]

So why not let someone else hammer? If it was so close to happening by your thinking? What discussion was happening that you think scum found dangerous enough to want cut off?

[penguin_alien]

Actually, since I'm not the basilisk I'm only cleared if we lynch a non-Basilisk Mafia, assuming a 10:3 set-up.

If Nacho's not scum, Toomai is the only other likely person from the Stubbs Null pile.

P-edit: yes, readable

[penguin_alien]

...I suppose scum co

[penguin_alien]

Let me try that again. Ahem.

I suppose scum could have a JOAT and a Ninja-semi-Strongman that sidesteps two of the known town PRs and the only two likely useful ones. No offense, F-16. Is that probable?

Toomai, who do you think scum is? And not who has the lowest percentage reading at the moment; evaluating everything, what are your scum reads?

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Toomai

Hate the 'vote the counterwagon' attitude, but I'd expect scum to be minimally aware of who else is a viable lynch when they're on the chopping block.

VOTE: Nacho

Toomai is posting the exact same way in the game F-16 links, you read him wrong there, and you want him lynched here?

[penguin_alien]

Umm Toomai was scum in that game if you see similar posting here how does that make it town here instead of scum?

No, he's town here. As F-16 linked. Nacho reads him as scum and is wrong. Meanwhile, he's wandering around there with no clue and using his percentage points gimmick, just like here. And like I said, I would expect scum being run up to know who the next most viable lynch is without detouring onto JS.

[penguin_alien]

And the linked town game and here, RachMarie?

F-16, I was focusing on other things. I've had times in the past where I don't mesh with people's styles and thought they were scum for it and been wrong; other aspects of this game in general and Toomai's posts in particular made me scum-read him.

P-edit: who's sick?

[penguin_alien]

Sorry to hear about that, RachMarie; hope everyone's on the mend soon!

F-16, I've explained why I was voting Toomai in my ISO. You can also see there where my focus was during this day phase.

I read some of the town game you linked, mostly in ISO mode.

[penguin_alien]

Fine. Better an iffy lynch than no-lynch.

VOTE: Toomai

L-1

[penguin_alien]

PA don't claim the fruit or no fruit yet i have something to hash out with the mod.

Keeping mum.

[penguin_alien]

Well, if JacobSavage and JasonWazza say I didn't get fruit, I didn't get fruit. No, seriously, no fruit for me.

So I'm inclined to count myself, JW, and Nacho as definite town--Nacho as scum has no reason to clear me given everything that went down yesterday.

That leaves Amrun, Rach, JS, and fferyllt. We have one more mislynch to spare.

I'm assuming that a fruit vendor, Malfoy cop, modified doctor, and power-lite JOAT is pretty much the extent of town power. Scum have a quasi-strongman, JOAT, and likely day talk. Should we mass claim just to get it out of the way today?

[penguin_alien]

In that case my to-lynch list is JS, then fferyllt, then RachMarie.

[penguin_alien]

Well, Amrun claiming to be a Malfoy but likely not Mafia makes Nacho's claim make more sense. And all our PRs are likely out; why not nail everyone down?

[penguin_alien]

Prod dodge; will post later tonight.

[penguin_alien]

Neither do I, but if I'm still around tomorrow I'm going to be grumpy if someone pulls out a surprise fifth town PR.

[penguin_alien]

Nachomamma8, are you still town-reading fferyllt?

[penguin_alien]

I'm saying she's town. I have PA above her in my townpile solely because of the combined cop/joat results ruling her out. Otherwise, in all likelihood I'd have voted PA again today.

So you've come to terms with your scum read on me being completely wrong. But it feels off that with one strong read being wrong barring a PA-Nacho scum team you're citing PoE anywhere in your current thought process:

Mantis has orders of magnitude more mutual game experience with me. She's also way more familiar with MS meta and MS denizens that MSG is. The sum total of MSG's play experience at MS is his short time in this game.

Comparing their play doesn't really make sense IMO.

It does to a point. Hence why I'm comparing their play to a point.

That distinction isn't coming across I guess. I'm pretty much reduced to PoE plus JacobSavage's apparently lackadaisical attitude about the game. I haven't found anything to fault in MSG's play.

I'm not sure what JS's motive for basically claiming to have received fruit is as scum. I think it's null, and I'm not sure I'd vote for his lynch today.

[penguin_alien]

Right now I'm honestly thinking you and JS. I tend to agree about Amrun. I'm not 100% sure on Nacho, just because it is possible scum had a role cop who investigated me to decide if they wanted to push my lynch today, but I do think JasonWazza finding that Nacho used an 'investigate' action on me should clear us of being a possible scum team. And realistically speaking, I think Nacho had more to gain from pushing my mislynch than clearing me, which would render a role cop on me superfluous.

I agree that he wouldn't lie about getting fruit, and I interpreted it as him claiming to have received the fruit, as otherwise he'd have no reason to state so definitively that I hadn't gotten fruit.

Amrun and RachMarie being absent makes me nervous. A lot of out-of-date reads going on here. I'm also not sure why anyone would expect us to have more PRs than a doc, JOAT, fruit vendor, and Malfoy cop. fferyllt, what would be your reaction to someone claiming a PR if we end up in LyLo? Where do you stand on massclaiming today?

[penguin_alien]

Which is why this:

PA how can you be so sure that all our PRs are out?

Let us not set anything in stone ok?

Bad enough we have so many already claimed.


Meanwhile

a vote


VOTE: JacobSavage

feel pretty good about this one being scum...

makes me leery. I'd expect RachMarie to be thinking about this as town.

[penguin_alien]

OK, so I'm assuming it makes zero sense for Nacho to investigate me as scum. I'm also assuming it makes zero sense for scum-Jason to prompt town-Nacho to clear me.

If Nacho believes RachMarie is clear, that's good enough for me for now. Could be a scum tracker, yes. If Nacho was a scum role cop, it also wouldn't make much sense for him to hold a shot on Night Two, and I'd expect one of his scum buddies to send it in on his behalf.

Town PRs then are a weak JOAT, tracker, semi-doc, Malfoy-specific cop. It adds up to ~3 town PRs, which against a semi-strongman, strong JOAT, and something else looks reasonable. Adding the tracker to the scum side on the other hand looks like a weak town to me.

I'd like Jacob to claim before a hammer goes down.

[penguin_alien]

I guess I want to talk about this a little longer, but I think I'm alone in that.

You said you liked your town-Amrun read, IIRC. To the point where you'd put her as town above me, Nacho, and JW. Is there any combination of scum in that group of three that makes sense, given the claims?

That leaves you, JS, and RachMarie. What's your take on the tracker claim? Does it fit with one side or the other to you?

[penguin_alien]

How do you feel about letting fferyllt-scum be amazed from the dead thread?

[penguin_alien]

I'm tempted to go for the autowin except that I'm not 100% on Nacho. Feeling paranoid, but Amrun must be a Malfoy, given the Draco claim that could be a fakeclaim for Lucius. If it's a specific cop for one Mafia member, with zero chances of a false positive, it's not a bad role.

Before RachMarie claimed Tracker, Nacho would have had three choices for lynches for town to follow from fferyllt, RachMarie, Amrun even today after getting JS strung up. If Nacho's scum and one of those is a partner, it makes it easy to direct the 5p LyLo lynch onto a target of his choosing. His willingness to change to fferyllt is encouraging. I need to sleep on this.

[penguin_alien]

Nacho, if you vote for fferyllt I'll hammer.

[penguin_alien]

Thanks for modding, Nexus!

I'm confused by whether Nacho investigated me night two or three...but nice game, scum!