Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I was really looking forward to playing this game, I read the Harry Potter books more than twice. I'll post in more detail once I catch up but upon a skim, the first thing I noticed was that Stubbs claimed Colin Creevey giving justification as "protecting Harry from accusations." This isn't true. Colin follows Harry around with a camera and takes pictures despite the fact that Harry doesn't want it. He is annoying more than protective. He even gossips about Harry being the heir of slytherin (I need to double check the last point). Whatever he does, there is no "protection" no matter how much I stretch it. I think the claim is fake.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Falcon, Colin once directly prevented Harry from dying via his camera.

How so? Also, the claim mentions "protects from accusations." Does he do that anywhere?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

The role PMs in Nexus's philosopher's stone game were a bit unusual. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5126063

The wierdest one was peeves as the the vanilla cop because despite him causing chaos, hogwarts is his home and he wants to protect it. The protection part is not true but peeves makes sense as vanilla cop because he is always snooping around. I am a little undecided on the Colin Creevey claim but between Creevey and Filch, I find it much more likely Filch is the JOAT considering he helps out a lot with miscellaneous stuff. I'll think on it though.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

My take is that one of them are probably lying. Look at my skepticism when Jason claimed, and how much I pressed Channel on the viability of both of them.

I am just going to claim now since half the game is lurky anyways.

I am nearly Headless Nick, a one shot Doc, and Hogwart aligned. (Curious that neither of our two claims mentioned anything about being aligned.) I can try to protect someone each night from the Basilisk: if I do so, then they get stumped. If not successful, I can keep trying. Once the basilisk dies, I become a normal 1 shot doc.

Given the wording, I have a feeling the Basilisk is an SK instead of straight scum.

What does stumped mean?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Oh, did you mean tree-stumped?

I don't think the basilisk is SK considering it is directly aligned with Voldemort. Perhaps, it is some sort of special mafia kill. I buy this claim since a student does see the basilisk through Nick and they get petrified instead of dying.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why would you do that when you suspect one of the claimed PRs of being scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You are voting someone you would protect?

^ Pretty much this.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Lngrr, the part about you being unsure makes sense. But by voting Stubbs, I assume you want him lynched, correct? If you are wrong, that would be a pretty big blow to the town by your logic. So, why prevent one of your suspects from being nightkilled?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@F-16, not sure if you read the comments, but I am not sure who to lynch today. Im still down for Marquis, but I voted Stubbs to give Marquis a chance.

Also, if I did and people read my ISO, a vote stands out moreso than text, so occasionally I vote people who I think there is something fishy about, even if I don't want them lynched that Day.

But since people are getting their panties in a twist...

UNVOTE:

:p

I just don't get it. Why would have to vote Stubbs to give Marquis a "chance?" You could have simply not voted anybody while you waited for Marquis. Also, deadline is approaching and I find it suspicious that you vote someone who don't wan't lynched.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

EBWOP

@F-16, not sure if you read the comments, but I am not sure who to lynch today. Im still down for Marquis, but I voted Stubbs to give Marquis a chance.

Also, if I did and people read my ISO, a vote stands out moreso than text, so occasionally I vote people who I think there is something fishy about, even if I don't want them lynched that Day.

But since people are getting their panties in a twist...

UNVOTE:

:p

I just don't get it. Why would you have to vote Stubbs to give Marquis a "chance?" You could have simply not voted anybody while you waited for Marquis. Also, deadline is approaching and I find it suspicious that you vote someone who you don't wan't lynched.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Not sure what the vote count is and I'll spend tonight and tomorrow catching up fully, but now that momentum started to swing back onto Stubbs that he is a viable lynch, I am likely going to vote for him too.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I buy lnngrr's claim so I was actually leaning town on him and scum on Stubbs. I couldn't follow his thought process about protecting one of the PRs so I found that scummy. Now I am not sure about him. Stubb's claim I am sure of. But I will expand in a bit.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Here are my thoughts on the first 6 pages. I'll post the remaining later after I finish reading through the game and checking relevant player's meta (Stubbs and LngrrrR). I find Stubb's behavior suspicious and I don't buy the claim either so I am pretty sure he is scum but I'll post a more comprehensive read after I finish reading his meta.

Strong Town

1) Amrun – Amrun is my strongest townread. From the beginning, I like her 31 where she asks Rach about her opinions on the bouncing wagons. It was pretty much the same thing that I was thinking. Her point about how lngrr sounds tonally is also a strong one.
2) ChannelDelibird – The way he jumped off the Amrun wagon and hopped on lngrr was very indicative of my own thoughts about the game at that point. His read on Amrun was something I agree with as well and he found the same post of Amrun’s (the one about tone) townish as I did. His response to Toomai also sounds townish. It was a similar reaction to what I had. I also like his response to ffery in 81. Some of his arguments about lngrrR are persuasive as well. I think CDB’s scumread on lngrrR came from a very town place.

Slight Town

3) MSG – I can see oriole’s 135 coming from a town mindset and I agree with most of his reads as well.

Null

4) LnGrrrR – I had a scumread on lngrr when I initially skimmed the day thread but upon a re-read, I found some of his points very townish. I see 55 and 57 having a town motivation because he is trying to figure out CDB’s alignment and Amrun’s. By themselves, they are null but his follow up to the “synchronity” argument by saying he doesn’t know what it means rings townish. It feels like town who have no idea why they are getting so many votes all of a sudden and are trying to figure out which of the voters are scum. The confusion is more indicative of town who doesn’t know anyone’s alignment. His response in 65 when questioned by Fegelein also shows a town thought process behind him calling the 3 players weird. However, his later response worries me. 89 isn’t very inquisitive and he puts much more effort into defending himself than scumhunting. I’ll have to check his meta to see if he is tonally different as scum than town. He also doesn’t seem to find it fair that he is accused over Squilly although he feels that Squilly should be FOSsed more because the reasoning behind his FOS is weak. That is more likely to come from scum who are annoyed at being caught although they feel that they have done nothing wrong. 97 is bad as well. He is minimizing “passive voice” to “grammar tell” as well as continuing tunneling on Squilly while his vote remained there instead of his reads changing as more discussion happened. His initial reason for voting Squilly was quite poor and he is trying to compare himself with Squilly and none of the reads adapted as he interacted with people who were FOSsing him hard.
5) JasonWazza
6) Marquis
7) RachMarie
8) Syryana

The last 4 players haven't posted enough content that could be alignment indicative.

Leaning scum

9) fferyllt – I had ffery as sure scum until 120 which is townish although I don’t like that she doesn’t actually take a stance on the wagon despite reading meta on LngrrrR. It wouldn’t be impossible to do a meta-read as scum though. I am more worried about the lack of stances and low activity level.

Scum

10) Toomai – The first thing he does is place a vote on JasonWazza after doing a post by post analysis and says to provide something real. I am leaning scum on this because he doesn’t take part in the ongoing discussion between Amrun, Fegelein, and LngrrrR but stays away from it. The vote on Jason strikes me as lazy and the post by post analysis is overjustification for it. I don’t like his 124 either. I don’t see how reading through meta to verify LngrrrR’s posts is “nothing but a distraction.”
11) Penguin_alien – Dislike Penguin’s 132 where she states generally available information that most people agree on. Fluff.
12) StubbsKVM – 144 is bad where he has Jason and Squilly as scum. I don’t see the rationale there. Jason has been refusing to explain his reads and Squilly has been inactive. These reads are lazy.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also,

UNVOTE: UNVOTE:
VOTE: Stubbs

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Upon thinking more, I actually think Stubb's claim makes sense. If we are to assume that roles are at least somewhat similar to this game, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5126063, the scum are given pretty good characters for safe-claims and they can choose whatever role they want a role PM crafted for.

I think Colin Creevey is a rather unlikely character to be provided as a safe-claim.

Even in the event that it was, it is unlikely that Stubbs would ask for a JOAT claim (I guess he might if he didn't know who Colin Creevey was but I am sure his scum-mates would help him out with that as occurred in the linked game). Stubbs leans town to me. Read through of Stubs's meta briefly shows that his behavior isn't very unusual as town.

UNVOTE:

Marquis's latest posts sound very genuine so I think he is town as well. If we can get an alternative lynch, we should. Depends on how many people are online and don't like the Marquis's lynch. I think Toomai or PenguinAlien are both appealing ones. Thoughts?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'll hammer if needed but I also want to point out Penguin was in the other game so her push on Stubbs without considering these points is scummy as hell. She just goes with the flow. Would you lynch Penguin if we get the support? How much time is left anyway?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

VOTE: Marquis

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I used my role on CDB last night (not related to his death). This might be useful for later days - I will explain at that point.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Fair enough, and a good towny response.

UNVOTE:

What would have been a scummy response?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Don't worry, I know what I am doing. It'll be fine.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think it is fairly obvious at this point that at least one of our PR's are scum. I just can't figure out Nexus's thought process for assigning roles. I'll try to do a meta-analysis of each of them (Jason, LngrrrR, StubsKVM) and see whose behavior more closely mirrors their scum behavior than town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, can you explain your townread on me and Syr? What about Toomai do you find scummy?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What are you implying?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

She is always deliberative with her votes, nothing unusual. I don't think the lack of a vote at the end was intentional. Both these things are null.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I agree about it being mafia. It is in Voldemort's control and is unlikely to be a separate faction. I haven't yet formed an opinion about the release mechanism.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

LngrrrR read: Likely Town

I lean town on LngrrrR based on his meta. He has two finished town games and he is playing here a lot like how he played there and there are several similarities. For example in Open 945 where he is town, he questions players for information. The first instance of this happens in post 103 where he votes fuzzybutternut for a lack of response to his questions. He even claims that fuzzy was buddying up to Hiraki and that he would like to see the flip of one to determine the flip of another. His 113 continues along the same line where he has a whole series of questions to Fuzzy. A lot of them are very aggressively toned leading a player to call him "overzealous." . In 240, in response to FOS, he says “Would you care to point out actual differences between my vote compared to Ravens? Or is this another gut feeling with no analysis whatsoever to back it up?” This shows that he really wants to understand why he is being FOSsed. 250, he asks for a case on him. His main frustration with fuzzy seems to be a lack of interaction and a case. LngrrrrR as town likes to analyze how something happened and remark on it: he responds to a wagon on another player here in a similar way to what he did here.

What I take from this is that LngrrrrR clearly wants all of his posts responded to. He is slightly overzealous in demanding responses and answers to all of his questions. The demand for explanation in 55 matches his general tenacity as town where he wants explanations and answers to his questions. 63 he again demands an explanation.

His lack of a real push on Amrun based on the fact that "Amrun at least has a case" matches up with his beliefs and style of scumhunting as town. He gets less annoyed by people pushing cases than by those who decline to provide reasoning or go by their gut.

In his other town game, =21447#p4977643] Newbie 1368, his also contain a lot of questions and demands for explanation. 93 is an example of that trend with multiple questions being asked. It continues in 95 and 97

His annoyance in 133 that people have called him wishy-washy without putting together a case is indicative of a normal town playstyle. His attempt at speculating the reasons he has been voted for is also normal as is his desire for cases and explanations.

The one thing that bothered me is that didn't have a real answer to his claim of wierdness when he got three votes on him quickly since he was usually able to explain his thoughts quite well as town. However, his reaction overall matches his town reaction of questioning and asking for explanations while not really going too hard at the one person who actually had a case (Amrun).

I buy his claim especially since there is no doc counterclaim. The theme of it matches. Justin sees the Basilisk through Nick and therefore gets petrified rather than dying. Although if Nexus is providing free fake-claims, the last point would be null. I find the lack of a cc more compelling evidence though. I am not absolutely certain that he is town (lack of scum-meta is a major problem), but I am about 80% sure he is town and don't think we should lynch LngrrrR. Add the fact that he hasn't actually played any scum games on mafiascum, I find it unlikely that he would emulate his town meta so closely.

I'll check Jason's and Stubb's meta next. In the meantime, Jason and Amrun, I'd like to hear your thoughts on this.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I can't really figure out which of Stubbs or Jason is scummier. Thinking on it, I wouldn't rule out both being town either so it doesn't make sense to focus exclusively on them until we get more information from flips.

Re-reading Penguin_Alien, I like a lot of her later posts and her development of suspicion on Stubbs also makes sense. I am somewhat null on her until she posts more content.

Toomai's posts don't make sense at all. 79, he votes Jason asking for "something real." 124 is terrible where he asks ffery what the point is of having a look for passive voice in lngrrrR's town game. I think it is fairly obvious: if LngrrrR generally uses passive voice as town, then it becomes a null tell. LngrrrR was also the hot topic for discussion at the time, so checking up his meta is hardly a distraction. The amount of null reads he has in 181 is troubling coupled with no attempt at developing any reads. 183 is just hoping someone else makes things happen. I really don't like 186 - pre-emptively justifying why he is dead weight in this game by referring to his other games. If he was dead weight before, makes no sense to not try and improve. 271 where he says Jason has been more helpful doesn't sit right either. Jason had not done anything up until that point other than promise reads.

VOTE: Toomai

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

124 is terrible where he asks ffery what the point is of having a look for passive voice in lngrrrR's town game. I think it is fairly obvious: if LngrrrR generally uses passive voice as town, then it becomes a null tell. LngrrrR was also the hot topic for discussion at the time, so checking up his meta is hardly a distraction.

The whole "passive voice" argument seemed like pointless, pedantic garbage to me and went on way too long.

Okay, that makes sense considering you had LngrrrR as "extremely slightly" town during that time.

The amount of null ads he has in 181 is troubling coupled with no attempt at developing any reads. 183 is just hoping someone else makes things happen. I really don't like 186 - pre-emptively justifying why he is dead weight in this game by referring to his other games. If he was dead weight before, makes no sense to not try and improve.

You think I'm not trying to get reads or improve at playing? I sit here for probably half an hour per post trying to come up with questions and reads, and come up with pointless headaches instead. I am a bad player and will probably stay that way for several years whether I try to improve or not. That does not mean I am scum; that means I am a policy lynch.

If you spent so much time reading through, just say what is on your mind or what you thought upon reading even if you can't substantiate it.

271 where he says Jason has been more helpful doesn't sit right either. Jason had not done anything up until that point other than promise reads.

That was my point. I felt Marquis had done less than promise reads.

How so? Marquis had at that point provided reads and explained her read on Rach in 222.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Toomai, I think the table looks pretty but most of the conclusions you drew from them are irrelevant to finding scum. Do you believe that never changing their votes during the Day Phase scummy? What about not voting for Squilly/Marquis?

I think Syryana voting in the middle of the wagon is likely a co-incidence. Someone's got to supply the middle votes and voting in the middle isn't any more likely to come from scum than town.

I don't agree that a specific meta note is less helpful than the promise of reads but that's debatable so I guess it could make sense from your viewpoint.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, now I feel much better about Stubbs as town considering and ISO of his posts searching for "Amrun" shows that he has as null for most of the game except for the very last reference where he says that Jason might be onto something with Amrun - meaning he is starting to lean scum on someone that was townread a lot, making her a great choice for investigation.

539 also reads as a genuine attempt to move the game forward.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

"Extremely slighty" means my read on a post/player is basically null but with one or two points towards town or scum.

Toomai, can you give more reads along with the numbers? Do you have a list/chart of players and your reads?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

On a second re-read and after finishing reading Toomai's meta, he actually reads very town.

UNVOTE:

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Great. I figured you'd have a graph after reading your meta and thought that your "extremely slightly" and reference to numbers might be something you are noting down but haven't shared yet. Now it makes sense.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, that actually checks out perfectly with the weak, aggregate reads at 175 as well.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, I like your case on Penguin. I'll check through her meta to see if she generally goes for low hanging fruit as scum.
______________________

Right now, I am very sure of Toomai being town. LngrrrR is also very likely town. I had a strong townread on Amrun but am not as sure anymore because of the lack of posts. I want to see how she responds to the later posts but still quite comfortably town. Stubbs, I think is town but I'll need to read his meta in more detail to corroborate that. I like ffery as town based on the last post but I need to double-check Penguin's meta as well. If I am right about all these players (still not entirely sure on the last two), that leaves 3 scum and 2 town in the remaining players:

- Penguin, RachMarie, JasonWazza, Syryana, MSG

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

He doesn't have any scumgames. But the fact that he does have a graph and been doing all this behind-the-scenes work and not saying a word about it until asked makes me near-certain that he is town. Also, all of my initial reasons for suspecting him are null-tells (he is self-deprecating in a lot of games and has trouble coming up with reads) which really made me do a complete 180.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ ffery, why is RachMarie town?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, makes sense.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@Stubbs, did you lose your shot, or do you get to keep it since you were roleblocked?

Seriously guys, how is this rolefishing NOT MOTHER FUCKING SCUM?

Why is it any more likely that he would do that as scum as opposed to town? I can see the town motivation in asking for details so that he could get a better understanding of StubbsKVM's affiliation, and lock him into a claim so he can't wiggle out later if scum and can't adjust his claim for convenience as time goes by.

If scum have a roleblocker, it makes sense for scum to ask whether 1X abilities are lost upon a roleblock before they use that roleblock on a townie. I don't buy that LngrrrR and his team would roleblock Stubbs and then in the following day, demand to know whether the shot was used up.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Can we lynch this based on bullshit insider information, and result hunting?

Also, what insider information does lngrrrR have?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Penguin is playing to her scum-meta. I am going to read a few more games to verify before posting my entire case which might take a while.

VOTE: Penguin_Alien

This post comes off as not at all determined to find scum.

MSG spends a lot of time asking for other's opinions in a way that comes off as him looking for someone to sheep blame-free.

Except that it wouldn't be "blame-free." The sheep on a wagon will attract just as much scrutiny as those that provided reasoning or instigated the wagon.

He almost never gives opinions on other people's play;

Not true.
331, he says that JasonWazza is the most objectively scummy based on his evasive responses.
387, he says he doesn't like Jason's play and has his doubts about ffery and syryana.
433, he attempts to sort out the power roles, gives his opinion on each of them, and votes Stubbs.
502, he speculates that ffery not voting could be linked to the basilisk
532, he tells ffery that he wants to know why she has a townread on Syryana despite his low activity.

instead he asks them to see what they think of said people. I'd quote it from his ISO, but it's an easy read for anyone who cares to do so.

VOTE: MSG

There is no reason to believe that asking others for their reads is more likely to come from scum than town. Townies do it all the time. There is a clear town-motivation to do it: to gain a read not only on the target but on the player giving their opinion of the target when the target flips.

This reads like you trying to shoehorn scumtells and apply them to MSG. You've only looked at possible scum motivation without considering that there is an equally likely town motivation for his posts.

And this is completely different to how you play as town while matching up with the kind of manufactured scumtells you push on people as scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Amrun, I haven't actually played with PA but I was just reading through her games the past couple of days.

I am going to think more on Stubbs as well.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I was actually leaning Jason as scum more than Stubbs based on his pushing LngrrrrR as having insider info which was very similar to what he did to JKLM in this game. But I am reconsidering Stubbs. I suspect Penguin even more based on her "JOATS could be scum-scum" theory which was rather absurd from a town POV and looked liked scum trying to get a mislynch even if their partner is lynched first.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Since then he posted a reads list--great, but 7 of 10 are uncertain and blatantly uncommitted.

One is town on you, his now-defender

, one on a doc claim that revealed the basilisk earlier than scum would want to, and one is the same scum read as at the start of the game. Looks scummy to me.

Why does this make him scummy in the slightest? He posted his reads-list

before

I defended him which makes my defense irrelevant to his reads list.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am just going to reveal since some of the setup spec seems to be based on assuming that my role is actually useful. I am Professor Lockhart, Hogwarts aligned fruit vendor. I am fairly useless. Each night, I pass a piece of fruit to a player. It doesn't do anything but I am required to do this each night. I assume that the player will know that they received a fruit but I am not sure. I asked Nexus to verify and I'll get back on this.

I figured I'd try to draw the nightkill by pretending it was something important but I'd rather not have misinterpreted setup info leading to potential mislynches.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Some things about Stubbs strike me as very genuine while others don't align.

For instance, the way he said he tried to investigate Amrun because he couldn't get a read on her. It matches perfectly with his null read on Amrun which culminated in a slight scumread towards the end of the day while many others still townread Amrun. Since he claims to be roleblocked and isn't actually going to clear anyone, what is the scum motivation to not just say he investigated someone suspicious or one of his scumreads instead of taking potential flack for investigating a near-universal townread? But from a town POV, he could be trying to investigate someone he was paranoid about.

On the other hand, his behavior is scummy, the lack of contributions is scummy, and his claim really doesn't fit.

Filch fits with JOAT since he does a lot of miscellaneous work in the castle. Nick fits as the special kind of doc as Justin sees the basilisk through him. Lockhart is definitely useless. But Colin acting to protect Harry from "accusations" is definitely factually wrong. There is no point in the book where he protects Harry from any sort of accusations - if anything he gossips about Harry being the heir of Slytherin to fellow first years. Also, if the justification is for a protective role, why roleblock, doc, and cop? The justification would make sense for just a doc.

Another thing to consider is that if Nexus is providing fake-claims, scum would have some good ones.

In the scenario where Stubbs is scum, he would be run up to L-1, ask the mod for a JOAT claim for his Colin Creevey character, and claim it hoping to buy himself one more day. He'd then claim roleblocked so as to not confirm anyone. But why would his scumteam let him ask for JOAT as a fake-claim? I can't think of anything that would fit Colin exactly.

Amrun is right though that we are essentially looking at two doc-type roles with LngrrrR and Stubbs and that is quite unlikely in a game where there is only one factional kill.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I can't get around the fact that Stubbs claim is factually wrong. I'll go with a Stubbs lynch. I think he is at L-2 right now.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Colin Creevey never protects Harry from any accusations.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Stubbs, if you are not going to be any more active, why not replace out?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Can you name your abilities? For instance, mine is called "vend."

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

On second thoughts, the fact that it is factually wrong doesn't mean anything although I still lean scum based on the double cc of doc and JOAT. Some of the role in Philosopher's Stone were wrong too. For example, Peeves doesn't act to protect Hogwarts. He just creates trouble.

Trying to figure the odd one out:

1) Lockhart - Fruit Vendor
2) Colin Creevey - JOAT (1X cop, 1X doc, 1X roleblock)
3) Filch - JOAT
"Follower: I get a result of "Investigative, Killing etc." for what that person did at night
Reporter: I know if they went no where or not.
Voyeur: I know what was done to someone, but not who did it."
4) Nearly Headless Nick - 1X Doc. (If basilisk is still alive, the protected player is petrified)

Comparing to the previous game:
1) Hagrid - Townie
2) Percy - Townie
3) Seamus - Townie
4) Hermione - Townie
5) Harry - Townie
6) Professor McGonagall - Townie

7) Peeves - Vanilla cop
Abilities:
Haunting: Despite your love for mischief, Hogwarts is your home, and as a result you want to protect it. Once per Night, you can PM me the name of a player, who you spend the Night investigating. You will then get the result of either "Vanilla" or "Not Vanilla." This is entirely accurate.

8) Snape - 2X Jailkeeper
Abilities:
Detention: Twice during the game, you can PM me the name of a player that you want to Jailkeep. This will both protect them from Night Kills, and prevent them from performing any Night Actions.

9) and 10) Fred & George - Siblings
Abilities:
Gred and Forge: You are twins, and as a result you know that the other is definitely town. However, if one of you dies, the other will be so overcome with grief that they commit suicide.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Penguin, can you explain why:

1) MSG would ask people for their opinions to sheep them when he could merely sheep the wagons that were forming if he wanted to sheep?
2) Why would a sheep get less attention than players that provide original reasoning?
3) Why does MSG having a townread on a "would-be" defender make him scummy when he would have no idea that I was going to be a "defender?"

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'll agree that the first statement is plausible. I don't understand the second one at all. Can you elaborate? The real problem though is with your third statement. You say you were wrong about the timing. Yet, in the post you make, you call me MSG's "now-defender" suggesting that you knew the timing of events all along and made no mistake.

One is town on you, his now-defender,

So, at the time you made the statement, clearly you knew that the defense happened after MSG had posted the reads list. If you mistakenly confused the timing to think that MSG posted a town-read on someone defending him, why would you say "now-defender" as opposed to just "defender?"

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I can't see the town motivation for Penguin's inconsistency. She says she was wrong about the timing which is perfectly fine for town to be. But her posts suggest she actually knew the timing considering she qualifies me as MSG's "now-defender" as opposed to just defender.

On the other hand, it makes perfect sense from a scum-POV: Penguin was posting a contrived, bullshit reason for suspecting MSG. When questioned on it, she tries to backtrack by saying it was a mistake with timing. However, the most damning of the "now" qualifier shows that she knew all along and had made no mistake at any point - rather just throwing suspicion for BS reasons to look like she is scumhunting - this has exclusively scum motivation.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Amrun, I think you are really missing my argument. I don't think PA is scum for making a mistake. It has nothing to do with player skill. Mistakes can come even from town regardless of the skill of the player.

I think she is scum because she tries to paint to MSG as scummy for having a townread on someone who later defended him. That doesn't make sense logically. She knew the defense came later because of the qualifier "now defender" that she uses.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Stubbs, can you name all your abilities?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I mean, does it actually say "cop, doc, roleblock?"

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't buy it. All the abilities both in this game and in the previous one are based on the theme.

1) Fred and George's sibling abilities are called "Gred and Forge"
2) Snape's Jailkeeper ability is called "Detention"
3) Peeves's vanilla cop ability is called "Haunting"
4) Lockhart's useless ability is called "Vend"
5) Filch's abilities are called "Follower" "Reporter" and "Voyeur"

Yours doesn't fit in. There is no way I can see Colin's abilities actually being "cop" "doc" and roleblock"

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I know. I was referring to it fitting with the theme that Filch would follow people around the castle to catch them out of bounds or report their misdemeanors (although I can't see how he would be Voyeur).

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Penguin, I am interested in your read on Amrun. You say that Amrun as scum wouldn't post setup analysis. Have you played a game with Amrun as scum before?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I have a bunch of reads but I am not sure now is the best time to share them. Our lynch for the day is pretty much set and Stubbs isn't doing anything to defend himself so I think it would be better to see a flip and get more info.

I have intent to hammer Stubbs soon. Any objections?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, sounds good.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am thinking about who the scum could be but I have too many townreads.

ffery, who do you think are the scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Here are my updated reads:

Strong Town

1) Amrun

- Amrun was obvious as town from Day 1 onward. Her early suspicion of LngrrrR and death-tunneling was very town-like. It is the sort of thing that would be very difficult to fake as scum. Her actions in D2 continue to give me good vibes including the push on Stubbs and pointing out how he was doubly-cc'd. This is one read I am sure is 100% town.

2) Toomai

- Toomai is playing very similarly to how he generally plays as town. His reference to numbers and the implications of his "extremely slightly" reads which he counted based on percentage points matches his scumhunting style as town perfectly. While he doesn't have any scum games to compare, I don't believe that as scum, he would withhold on his graphs and charts despite people saying that he wasn't contributing. He had a ton of behind-the-scenes work that he only posted after I prodded him. I am close to 100% certain that he is town.

3) JasonWazza

– Jason’s behavior is difficult to read and his town and scum games are very similar. I don’t understand his suspicion of Amrun from Day 1 and his claim of LngrrR having “bullshit insider information.” But, I don’t think that he as scum counterclaimed one of his partners. Without any other claimed power roles, I find one doc, one investigative JOAT, and one useless role to be a reasonable expectation of town power. I’ll re-evaluate if anyone else claims a power role but so far I see no reason to suspect the claim. I am not 100% on this but we'll know soon enough if Jason is scum.

4) RachMarie

– Rach is playing very closely to her town-meta where she is often direct in accusing players where as scum, she is usually a lot more peripheral and gives the sense of an outsider looking in. A few examples where this is seen is in Open 469 where she spends most of her time pushing a lynch wagon while demanding more content. There is also a lot of setup speculation as in this game which matches her town meta. As scum however, in games like Newbie 1318, she asks a lot of clarification questions, and tells people to expand on their cases while taking the backseat. This isn’t present in any of her town games. Her tone also sounds more stilted where she puts Apozzle in the town category for making a good case. It is interesting to see that she doesn’t actually react to the case. Open 489 is another example where she as scum doesn't directly involve herself in conflicts but stays on the sidelines and isn't very insistent of having her views heard.

A lot of her posts seem very natural like 210 for instance where she talks to Syryana. Her insistence that one of the claimed PR's are scum is also more likely to come from town than scum since one of them (Stubbs) was indeed scum. I think scum would be happy to forget about Stubbs when other people started reading him as town. While she does ask a few clarification questions, her demands for Marquis to provide reads on the other players also makes sense as what she would do as town. Her 362 where she insists that one of the JOATs are scum also makes little sense as scum since she is cutting down the potential for Stubbs to walk free.

Weak Town

4) fferyllt

- I like the fact that she reviewed LngrrR's meta to figure out whether the passive voice is indicative of his normal playstyle. I also think the case on Penguin came from a town motivation and I agree with it. I don't think she has been pro-active enough to be obvtown although a lot of her behavior mirrors that in Newbie 1415 where she was helpful but not particularly aggressive during the later stages. Re-reading a lot of her earlier posts, they show genuine town-motivation including the reach-out to Syryana and discussion of her results of meta-diving Stubbs. However, a lot of her behavior is also similar to Mini 1478 where she was scum and read people that she knew as town fairly easily – for instance saying “borktown” after a post from borkjerfkin in a similar way that she said “Rachtown” here after seeing a post from Rach. Not to mention that she and Cabd spent a considerable amount of time discussing Andrius’s games offsite with Empire. Her actions so far in the thread have been pro-town with no reason for suspicion. However, the fact that she could draw scum and play pretty much the exact same way makes me not confident in this read but rather tentatively put her as town and see what happens from there.

Ffery, another thing that bugs me is that you are not taking hard stances despite your meta-analysis which was exactly what Oil Tycoons brought up in Mini 1478. I hadn’t read that post when I had that initial scumread on you for not taking stances but upon reading it, I figured that it was surprisingly accurate. If you are town, help me read you better and give me more of your thoughts on who the scum is.

Null

5) Nachomamma8

– I lean slight town on Syryana but I want to see what Nacho comes up with.

7) MSG

- Most of MSG's posts have struck me as very genuinely paranoid. There isn't a lot of detailed analysis but his questioning of other players to see who they think is scum seems to come from a genuine town motivation. I am not sure how much of this is a playstyle issue and how much is affiliation dependent. MSG, can you provide links to town and scum games that you have played (at least 3 of each would be nice).

Scum

8) Penguin_Alien

– She hasn’t done any scumhunting or attempted to figure out anyone’s affiliation. Most of her comments came off as very convenient and non-committal. An example is her claim that LngrrrR’s reaction to his wagon was bad. There was no follow up or attempt at determining his motivations.

I also don’t believe ffery’s point about low hanging fruit was addressed properly. While I agree that this is a good playerlist, I certainly feel that MSG or Squilly would be a easier lynches than say ChannelDelibird, or Amrun. I would have been fine if she said that she simply suspected MSG but I don’t buy the response implying that there is no such thing as “high hanging fruit” in this playerlist.

She has been backing up some of her reads logically, for instance saying that Amrun is town because she elaborated on the reasons for the mafia nightkill and scum wouldn’t want to slip up. I don't think scum are any less likely to talk about NK motivations and I see it as a rather weak reason to townread someone who has been obvtown from Day 1. I can see some of Penguin’s play as logical, rational, and consistent but nowhere do I get the feeling that it is genuine, honest, or transparent.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

VOTE: Penguin_Alien

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

MSG is another townread.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I agree with your analysis on ffery/Nacho and it is making me doubt my Penguin read as well the more I think about her posts. The problem I have is that I can't really see anyone being scum with Penguin and her apathy in this game and lack of scumhunting could be less alignment indicative because she had no trouble mislynching one townie after another in her scum games (BROseidon and TMTOLBTWNTOF in HP and the Philosopher's Stone and SiviureDtTrikyp in Micro 122) so I am not sure why she isn't just pushing mislynches on players. ffery and Nacho however does make sense especially with ffery saying that Syr fits her town model in a similar way that she claimed that Andrius fits her town model in the mafia Xenologue game.

Penguin, if you are town, please produce a lot more content so we can read you better.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

MSG, can you provide me links to your town and scum games?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I just read your post 656 (didn't see it when I posted 658.) your analysis of me is very similar to p_a's case against me on d2

What is similar about it?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay. Never mind about the games offsite. I reread your ISO and your latest post and it makes perfect sense as town.

MSG

moves into the strong town pile. The suspicion on fferyllt builds up very naturally right from 329 where he asks questions about fferyllt and follows that up with his own suspicions. 331 again makes sense far more sense as town than scum - I figure scum would more likely want to buddy/fly below the radar of people who they know with the hope they won't be suspected. The biggest thing for me is that despite ffery's defense of him, he doesn't seem to let go of the suspicion. It would make much more sense as scum to push Penguin since it is convenient (she is pushing him), and other people are suspicious of her. But his non-jump on the Penguin wagon because ffery is pushing it looks like town that has suspicions of the people defending them but don't want to say it yet. With his final articulation of his suspicion despite me putting ffery as weak town in my reads list and Penguin (who was attacking MSG) as scum, this is another strong town read.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Updated List of Reads

Strong Town

1) Amrun
2) Toomai
3) Jason
4) Rach
5) MSG

Everybody Else

6) Nacho
7) ffery
8) Penguin

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, what are your reads? Who do you think is scum? Work with me. Right now the only people I am still not sure of are you, Nacho, and Penguin. Everybody else is a strong townread.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why are you ignoring my posts? You still haven't provided any of your reads. More than MSG's case on you, I think MSG's progression of suspicion which can be glanced at from his ISO makes him really obvious town. POE means that two of you, Nacho, and Penguin are scum.

UNVOTE:

I am not as sure of Penguin anymore. I want to hear from her and Nacho and think about this further.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Sorry, it seemed that way when you didn't respond. I didn't realize that you missed my posts.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Regarding Amrun, I think it is fairly obvious that she is town unless she bussed Stubbs out of nowhere for no reason. She was already being townread and there was no great suspicion on Stubbs. What motivation would she have to point out exactly why he is scum and start a wagon on him? I'll read Raptured as well but I am finding it very hard to see any scum motivation in Amrun's posting.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay. Tell me more about the town-Syr and scum-Syr models you have.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I received a piece of fruit last night FYI

Yeah. That would be from me.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Rach, what are your reads? Who do you think is scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Overnight, I thought it was close to solved actually. Now I'm not sure. Are you caught up?

Who did you think were the scumteam and what changed your mind?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I considered that too which is why I wasn't really sold on MSG-town fully until today.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, a few questions:

1) Why is your townread on Amrun re-affirmed when when she tells Jason to start playing the game?
2) What games have you played with Rach as town and scum? (I want to see in what way she is more likely to complain about being scumread as town).

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Nacho, your reads mirror mine a lot except ffery, Toomai, and MSG. I am assuming you have Rach as town as well based on your catchup post.

I can see why Toomai's graphs didn't instantly impress you because you weren't instantly impressed last time he pulled them out either which makes sense as town because you don't believe effort = town.

Based on your defense of ffery and hers of Syr, and Syr's of ffery, I am seeing both of you as a package deal. I can't see one of you being scum and one town unless you are badly fooling someone you are closely familiar with. The only exception is that people who know each other often read the other as town early on hoping to co-ordinate reads (example of you trying to link up with Buldermar in Hunterxhunterx). Please note if that is the case with ffery here or you are actually very sure that she is town.

If it is the latter, I am leaning towards either you/ffery team or Penguin/someone else team. I can buy Penguin being scum but I have a hard time buying anyone else as scum. I'll re-evaluate Toomai and MSG and see if anything comes up.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I just had a revelation: ffery, Stubbs team actually doesn't make a lot of sense although not impossible.
- I declare intent to hammer Stubbs.
- ffery says to wait for Nacho/Syr.
- Stubbs decides to hammer anyways to not allow Syr to come online and post.

Assuming they have daytalk which is likely considering that the previous Nexus game had daytalk, I can't see scum having such contradictory goals. ffery could have just said nothing and let me hammer if she wanted to stifle discussion. Why ask me to wait for her other buddy so that the one that was wagoned can self-hammer? Also I feel ffery would have hammered for the towncred rather than telling her scum-mate to hammer himself. This doesn't say as much about Nacho but I can't see ffery-Stubbs team.

I need to double-check Nacho's game with Toomai. Scratch the previous post about Nacho/ffery as a package deal. There are some possibilities I hadn't considered.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why is Feg/me a strong townread?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Amrun, can you explain your reasoning for Toomai more? I feel pretty strongly that he is town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Hmm, that works too. I didn't think of it that way.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

How was my replacement into your game similar to this one?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Amrun, you didn't say much about Toomai D1 so I'd like to see the elaboration when you find time.

I am not as certain about the Toomai read anymore although I still lean town. Reading his game with Nacho in more detail, it seems like it only takes 10 minutes or so to do the graph ("not counting the time to adjust reads for each post" - I wonder how long this takes). I seem to have overestimated the amount of effort here.

Toomai, can you provide an updated graph and explain how you developed the reads you did for each player in detail.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I have some stuff to say about MSG but first I want to understand some background information:

ffery, how good is MSG at reading you and how good are you at reading him? MSG, same question. The more detailed the answer the better.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

MSG Read: TOWN

I re-evaluated MSG based on Amrun reading him as scum and came to the same conclusion as before: that MSG is town.

I haven't read the link because of the privacy issues ffery mentioned so I don't have any idea of MSG's metagame. However, based on MSG's and ffery's opinions of each other's skills, it is quite obvious that MSG thinks fferyllt is a good scum player which would make him likely very paranoid if he is town. If he is scum and ffery town, it may be possible that he could fake paranoia but in this case, I find the paranoia to be very genuine and I read MSG as

strongly

town for that reason. Amrun, Nacho, I want your opinion on this and if you disagree, I would like to know your reasoning.

not having played here before, I don't know if it's common to have 1 or more jack-of-all-trades roles but it's not what I'm used to. if I had to choose I would say the claimed role of Filch is a better fit for the character flavour. "1-shot roleblock, 1-shot doc and 1-shot cop" doesn't reconcile that well with the character of Colin Creevey

He opens with suspicion of Stubbs despite there being no reason to FOS Stubbs over Jason. He could be distancing so this isn't such a strong point but it is one more point in his favor.

Ok. I didn't say it was surprising but I don't yet see it.

What do you think of fferylt?

CDB explains to him what the FOS on LngrrrR was about but he sidesteps that in order to turn discussion toward fferyllt. This is consistent with his paranoia and his later posts where he reveals all of the suspicion. It is obvious at this point that he is suspicious of ffery but is holding back.

The scum motivation could be to make ffery look suspicious or achieve a mislynch. However, in 330, CDB tells him that he is not particularly worried about her. At this point, it makes much more sense for scum to find better targets. But you can see that the suspicion is genuine based on his followup where he says what is on his mind.

I'm keeping my powder dry until I work out the players a but more. Fferylt is the only player I do know and I noticed that her early posts were quite tentative. Like post 81. Town fferylt is very activist in my experience, whereas as scum she can take a bit to find her feet.

JasonWazza looks the most objectively scummy though, based on (what I saw as) his evasive responses.

He explains what is on his mind and his suspicions of the player that he knows well while hesitating to read the other players. He points out what concerns he has and offers his opinions on ffery's meta. This makes perfect sense from a town POV who is cautious of a player who he has played with before.

Sorry, was busy yesterday and did not get on.

Also not comfortable with cutting out 2 questionable outs under vote pressure when there's only 13 in the game.

But it's day 1, and we need to do something.

VOTE: marquis

still don't much like JW's play and have my doubts about ffery and syry.

He mentions his lingering doubts about ffery while moving onto the more obviously scummy players at the time. He also questions the read on Syryana based on ffery defending him.

well I'm conflicted. 3 claimed town power roles is not credible, but in order to sort them out:

JasonWazza: Argus Filch
Not a likeable character, but always acted to protect Hogwarts, but sometimes in misguided ways, and the role powers fit. Might make sense as a town traitor.

StubbsKVM: Colin Creevey
An important character in this novel but the role powers "I have a 1-shot roleblock, 1-shot doc and 1-shot cop at my disposal" - don't fit, and no further explanation was provided.

LnnGrrrR: nearly Headless Nick
The alignment and role powers look like a good fit to the story.

On that basis:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: StubbsKVM

I remain to be convinced otherwise.

Makes the right choice. While I don't like the last statement since it seems like he wants town to convince him to move away, I can see it coming from open-minded town as well. At the point where he cast his vote, town was in a state of slight confusion where no wagon was really set in stone. It would be easy for scum to lurk and see what direction the town goes in, but MSG decisively steps in and casts his vote on a player we now know is scum.

MSG, you around?

yep. what are your thoughts?

He asks for thoughts from a player he suspects - this matches up with his later claim that he asks questions to people to determine what their affiliation is based on their reads.

F16, have a look at CDB's post 445 and at fferylt's voting pattern and see if it makes you scratch your chin

Wonders why other people can't see the same thing about ffery that he can. Again, very townish. Consider the other possibility: scum motivation. From a scum POV, the point of such a question is to fling shit at the wall to see if it sticks. But what is the motivation to do that when nobody seems to suspect ffery and such a push isn't likely to go anywhere?

My current view on players, most to least townish:

Townish

LnGrrrR
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
* based on contributions in thread

Uncertain, leaning town

fferyllt
* feeling happier with her now but still wary of scum ffery's ability to weave a web of deceit, from bitter experience
Amrun
* D1 posts looked townish, but she started out with votes on 3 town players (cdb, squilly & oriole i.e. me,) then managed to call out all 3 players who then outed as town specials, i.e. Jason, Stubbs and LnnGrrR.
Toomai
* Big effort post with the graph doesn't look like the work of scum, but who knows?
StubbsKVM
* Mostly based on the JOAT claim
Syryana
* largely based on fferylt's meta.

Uncertain, leaning scum

penguin_alien
RachMarie

Scummy

JasonWazza
* Town or scum he is playing a terrible game. Defensive, unhelpful, not asking questions, refusing to answer questions and not offering any credible explanation why.

He provides his reads list. Ffery's case on Penguin changes her to a townread. This matches up with what he claims is town-ffery "activist." Once she started playing like what he expects, he switches his read, but the inherent paranoia is still obvious. The change in read is reflected by his readslist where since he now believes ffery as town, he also believes Syr to be town. He puts Penguin in as scum based on ffery's read.

Hey fferylt. How come you didn't get a vote down for the second day in a row?

This is a hint that he had re-evaluated the day thread during the night phase and has renewed suspicion. It makes sense too since his belief of ffery playing to her town-meta ("activist") was only present in one post and a re-evaluation of the entire day would likely re-ignite lingering suspicions.

I did an extensive re-read of day 1 & 2 over the past couple of days (not much work on this week) and most of the players were town reads for me.

Town

Amrun
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
RachMarie
Toomai
JasonWazza

Neutral

penguin_alien

Scum

Nachomamma8
fferylt

VOTE: fferylt

The fferylt vote is based on a combination of in-thread play (e.g. avoiding voting) and game meta. She doesn't seem to be having fun, which is the difference between her town and scum games. I got the same feeling reading another game where she was scum (newbie 1403,) compared to games where she played as town (e.g. newbie 1415, Newbie 1389.)

Nachomamma8 is based on reading Syryana's interactions with fferylt and the way he was protecting StubbsKVM on d1. Start from post 193, where he was white-knighting fferylt (strongly) and StubbsKVM (weakly.) As the net starts to close on Stubbs Syr and ffery put votes down on Stubbs (post 207, post 208,) but after Stubbs claims (post 257) Syryana vigorously opposes any effort to restart the d1 bandwagon (post 376, post 437, post 443.)

I had LnGrrrR as probable town but the flip has resolved that one.

He provides links to ffery's other MS games, and says what he finds different in the town and scum games. This comparison and claim of ffery's meta matching her scum one reads very genuine and I don't buy that it is fake. Considering his buildup of suspicion, excessive focus on the same player, paranoia because she is good as scum all adds up to MSG being extra wary of ffery, reading her games, and keeping an eye to see if he could spot her being scum. The paranoia is real because it is sustained throughout the duration of the game, it supports his actions (reading her other games), asking people how she plays on MS, and peaks and falls at the right moments. (When ffery posts a case for instance, the suspicion falls).

when I did a readback, most of the posts drawing attention to penguin_alien were made by fferylt - the low-hanging fruit stuff. but to me it looked more like it was fferylt trying to frame up the low-hanging fruit town player.

I was having the same though about p_a not looking like scum because she had no apparent team mates. Also I could see how she would read my posts as scum asking lots of questions to try to look busy, if she was a lonely townie with no information.

I am probably death-tunnelling now so will probably back off for a while

This posts backs up why he didn't jump on the PA bandwagon with me. It legitimizes his paranoia of ffery and wariness to joining a wagon that she is pushing.

All of this adds up to MSG being really obvious fucking town. His thought process is clear. His progression of reads make sense. I would really like to hear why anyone else thinks otherwise.

____________

Right now, I have Amrun, Rach and Jason as strong townreads. If I can get at least 3 more strong townreads, I really think we can win this game very quickly. I think MSG is definitely town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, I agree completely both on the fact that his paranoia is genuine and that there are some Stubbs links. His vote on Stubbs followed by the "I remain to be convinced otherwise" is the only thing that is undermining my townread but it seems to be small enough to be insignificant.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Toomai, can you provide an updated graph and explain how you developed the reads you did for each player in detail.

I'm not entirely sure what you want by "explain how you developed the reads you did for each player in detail". The basic gist is that as I read I assign each post a series of numbers based on how much my reads for each player have changed due to that post.

If you have questions about specific raises and drops, you can point them out.

Well, I pretty much want everything explained since the graph is basically a list of reads at each point in the game with no explanations. Perhaps periodic explanations would help.

Some specific things I would like to know:

1) How is Amrun in negative numbers? You have her as slightly below zero. Stubbs scumflip doesn't seem to have changed anything.

2) What is your reasoning for Penguin progressively becoming scummier and scummier after 570 or so until the end of your graph? I am interested in hearing your reasoning for that.

3) Pretty much everyone else seems close to null leaning slightly townish or scummy. You don't seem to be analyzing behavior much at all. You have Jason and me as town for our claims and most others as null. Can you elaborate on your thoughts about all those players in some detail explaining why you have those reads? I want to see more of your own thought process than just an up or down on a graph.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

My third question seemed redundant. What I wanted was your reads on other players in english.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am going to check in Nacho/Syr/ffery meta in games that they hydra'd with each other which will hopefully give me a better idea of their affiliations.

@ Nacho, can you explain your ffery town read to me in more detail. So far, I only have the stubbs vote as a reason.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

there are some Stubbs posts that have weak links to oriole

Like what?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am not liking Nacho. I am going to read other Nacho games to see if there are any meta-patterns.

Toomai, I am worried that regardless of your affiliation, you are not actually reading the game as a whole but as individual posts. Amrun pushed a Stubbs wagon when nobody suspected either her or Stubbs, provided evidence for him being scum and pushed the wagon through. Leading a lynch on a scum player ought to have town-points. I'll check on your other graphs to see if you do the same thing and I'll get back to that.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, I looked through Toomai's games yet again to see whether Nacho was right and in all of the games, the common pattern seems to be that he does occasionally push players, it is almost always responsive and reactionary. In Mini 1449 for example, he pushed on a suspect and questioned him. However, this was in response to someone else asking him for his read on a specific player. Most of his ISO involves answering questions directed at him by other players. He does follow other player's lead - he has in this game too. He wagoned Marquis and Stubbs.

In the game that he played with Nacho, he spent a lot of time defending himself and answering posts directed at him. He rarely if ever took a pro-active stance or pushed his scumreads. Nacho, can you explain exactly what you are referring to when you said that he was "pushing a top suspect strongly?" I see no push. He merely states his reads and joins wagons. As for willing to call out logic, he has been doing it so far on plenty of occasions. His play here matches his play as town very closely.

It is you I am concerned about. You come into the game with a catch up post that looks like you already decided who you are going to buddy with and who you are going to FOS. It is not balanced in any way. All your posts towards ffery, Amrun, and Rach for instance are overwhelmingly positive and understanding. Your posts towards Oriole/MSG, Toomai, and Penguin are negative, accusatory, and discrediting. For example, you say you like that ffery had the same townreads (Amrun, CDB, Feg) as you. Then you point out Oriole's post a few posts later and say that it doesn't have the same effect that ffery's post had because it came a few posts later.

I am not sure who Nacho's buddy is (most likely Penguin although I wouldn't rule out ffery), but I am leaning more towards Nacho being scum. The idea of lynching Toomai is rubbish. I haven't seen a thing that makes me think his posts, his behavior and his actions come from a scum motivation.

VOTE: Nachomamma8

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

F-16 you gonna maybe give penguin fruit?

I don't see the point of this considering your plan hinges on me not revealing who I'll give fruit to.

there are some Stubbs posts that have weak links to oriole

Like what?

Like Stubbs' first post in the game. That was either buddying or setting up a read on a partner. I now think buddying.

Then there was his reads list, with oriole at the top. He explains it here, saying he likes oriole's reads list and wants him to be town.

Post 240 he explains his first post, once again wants him to be town, and finally adds some explanation about why he likes the reads list. In post 241 he adds to that in reply to CDB's case.

He doesn't actually interact directly with the slot until MSG has replaced in and put down a vote in post 596. The vote happened as there was another momentum swing toward a Stubbs lynch. And that's the extent of his direct interaction with his strongest town read from early in the game.

Going back through this looking at it from the Stubbs side, it still pings. Factoring in MSG's posting, I think this was a cratered buddying attempt.

I agree with almost all of this. I got very similar impressions to you when I checked in on both their ISO's combined. I think it safe to say you think it is Toomai and Penguin scumteam at this point. Can you elaborate on why you prefer Toomai to Nacho?

I am still reading Syr's meta and I'll discuss both Syr's and Nacho's meta when I am finished. One thing I wanted to point out though was that Syr's raging hard on occured when CDB hard-FOSsed Stubbs. To me, to jump on a partner like that with an amazing degree of confidence seems like just the sort of thing Syr would do based on what I learned of him so far.

He'd certainly be confident enough to ask that you vote too because he knows it will be a scumflip. But the motivations behind his push would be that CDB as good as caught Stubbs and he wouldn't want to be left behind on getting credit.

His "I am not fucking touching that" with regards to the JOATs is a very general statement and puts him as far away as possible from having to directly defend Stubbs because he would be including Jason in that as well. In my opinion, he seemed to trying too hard to fall back on a policy "Power roles ought not to be lynched D1" as opposed to engaging with the actual information that was revealed. This adherence to a general rule maintains a lot of distance between him and Stubbs so he can't be blamed for Stubb's scumflip - after all people would simply believe that Syr didn't touch the JOAT claims because of the risk of lynching a PR D1.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

F16: you really don't see any possible scum motivation in backing off of ffery when it becomes clear she won't be lynched, on focusing on her alone and ignoring the rest of the thread.

Toomai: when Stubbs flipped scum, what did you think?

I can certainly see the scum motivation to back off of ffery when she won't be lynched. And yet:

- MSG describes ffery as "activist" - I am not even sure what that word means but I guessed that it was a synonym for aggressive.
- He backs off when she posts a case on Penguin.

I can also see the town motivation in backing off when she plays according to what he believes she plays like as town.

To discern which is more likely, look at the timing for the backoff. It didn't come at a point when people disagreed with his read, it came at a time when she played in a way he believed she would play if she was town.

He never backed off when CDB shut him down D1. He only backed off after the Penguin case.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I've read through Toomai's 3 completed non-newbie games.

In Mini 1449 he's more of an interrogator. He asks questions as well as making observations and I think does go after people he suspects pretty strongly. I'm also seeing evidence of his analysis tools in the game. It shows up in his reads list and then later in vote tables.

Comparing that game to this one was actually alarming, because in this game, the only post that smacks of interrogation was his question to jasonwazza early day 1 here, which came after his case and vote.

His next game, Mini 1464 is similar to 1449 in terms of interrogation, and overall in terms of lots of interaction with other players.

And, in Mini 1491, he questions a fair bit in this game too. But the questions aren't as forceful and interrogatory, though from almost the start in this game he was under fire.

The other thing that stands out so far in this game versus the other three, though the difference isn't huge and striking, is the relative infrequency of votes. In the earlier games, it's clear he uses his vote as a scumhunting tool. In this game, especially after day 1, he's not using his vote to nearly the same degree or effect.

In all these games, there's evidence of his analysis tools.

This post has a lot of good points. I'll reread those games again with these in mind and re-evaluate. Did you read the entire games or just his ISO?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I've read through Toomai's 3 completed non-newbie games.

In Mini 1449 he's more of an interrogator. He asks questions as well as making observations and I think does go after people he suspects pretty strongly. I'm also seeing evidence of his analysis tools in the game. It shows up in his reads list and then later in vote tables.

Comparing that game to this one was actually alarming, because in this game, the only post that smacks of interrogation was his question to jasonwazza early day 1 here, which came after his case and vote.

Okay, just went through this game and checked his ISO. My comments are in the spoiler.

Spoiler:

Mini 1449
32, has misgivings about how fast a wagon built up but lets it be anyways
87, reads Cherry Pie and Hapahauli as town since he wasn’t seeing poor logic on either side, votes NicCage for making 3 bad posts.
105, defends himself, asks for an explanation.
108, votes GCBC in response to hapahauli asking him why he dropped suspicion. Elaborates on his reasoning for his vote. Said that a sequence of posts contained dubious logic etc, and then provides questions for target to answer.
136, defends himself from a case, unvotes, says he doesn’t know how to create discussion.
164, points out 3 posts he doesn’t like, asks questions regarding why the player has no nullreads.
217, goes on VLA, comes back with a list of reads. He rarely actually explains WHY someone is scummy or not, only that they are. His best method of rooting out scum seems to be bad logic.
219, responds to an OMGUS accusation.
229, explains one read well, very reserved on explaining the others and doesn’t really expand much. Logic is again the primary, almost only differentiator.
Hapahauli’s 233 is interesting. He points out that Toomai has a lack of initiative and barely asks any questions, and even the ones that do, he doesn’t follow up on them or even factor them into his reads.
296, responds to an accusation. Says he is okay with Varsoon or NicCage being lynched for low signal to noise ratio.
363 is good. Gives a minor case on why he thinks a player is scum. Explains it all.
409, hypothesizes about a role claim.
515, weakly pushes a suspect saying that with an extended deadline, maybe they can get a wagon rolling.
569, responds to an accusation explaining why he supported the wagons that he did.
696, says he has Cherry Pie as weak town.
749, responds to an accusation. Agrees with a vote.
873, says that if he doesn’t have anything to add, he won’t add it.
892, says he has a gut feel on Dyslexicon and wants to poke that way. Doesn’t say anything else.
937, after a claim, switches to Scott Brosius.
1072, speculates about the setup.
1156, agrees with an observation and places an FOS.
1177, votes Daemon for scuttling along and getting a free pass.
1182, Gives up and votes himself, says he can’t develop reads at all. Says he has no idea what he was doing.
1124, vote count analysis.

I just don't see much difference at all. He hasn't been any more of an interrogator there than he has been here. Nearly everything he did in that game until very late in the game was to respond to accusations on him. I don't see him going after his suspects strongly either. Which post did he do that in? I am unable to see the evidence that should be a cause for alarm.

_______________

I'll get through Toomai's other games and Nacho's post later.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Toomai, can you explain your reads? Why is someone null or town or scum. What are the reasons that you found their posts townish or scummy?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

UNVOTE:

I am not as sure about this anymore. Nacho's catchup post seems very similar to the one in Mini 1472 where some of his posts came off as though he knew which direction he was going to go even before finishing the catchup.

I also see ffery's later posts as helpful to town. I am leaning more towards Penguin/someone else team at this point. Only problem is I am not certain about Toomai being scum so I can't see who Penguin's partner would be. I'll need to double check on a ton of Nacho meta after finishing up Toomai meta - that should help.

Pedit: yeah that will help.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Penguin_Alien, talk to me about your thoughts on the rest of the game? Who do you think is scum and why? What happened to your read on MSG?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'd ask what town-Nacho is like but I'd much rather see him post a lot more before delving more into meta. I agree with the read on fferyllt usually being more aggressive. Her willingness to read through Toomai's meta and take a strong stance on it was townish - although I am concerned she never really followed up on her case on you, or asked more questions or probed further. I checked more of her meta and her entire tone and playstyle is so different from this game which has me concerned.

Toomai's reads fit his meta. I want to see what more he comes up with. What about his reads do you believe is IIOA? Do you agree with Nacho's, ffery's or my analysis of how his games relate to his other games?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

MSG is my weakest town read pending RachMarie getting active again. Reading over his ISO now, he shifted to a more generally conciliatory stance in how he related to everyone, and I can't tell if it's a scum player switching things up or a town player adjusting to others.

So, if you can't tell how whether his shift is town or scum motivated, how did your scumread become a weak town read?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Can you elaborate on what this difference was as far as reading MSG's posts in his ISO and reading them in thread? I want to see what your thought process was here. How did it lead you to different conclusions? (I am assuming you meant "weakest scum read" in 791).

How has fferyllt been aggressive this game (besides her push on you)? I'd like to see the elaboration.

Toomai's reads being based on things that are sensible or reasonable is not be alignment indicative of him. Reading through his games, I noticed he often mentions whether someone has good logic or bad logic. So, when you call him out on mentioning non-alignment indicative things, that itself is not alignment indicative because he does this as town as well. If it fits his meta but isn't a hard style to fake as scum, then it is null.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't think I am being aggressive at all tbh. My playstyle changes based on how effective I feel I"ve been in recent games and based on the playerlist - and hence the overall pace and mood of the game. I do sometimes have slow-ish games, though. I think in the game you cited, F16, I was called out for not having much content or impact on the game or something. It turned out I was being called out by scum in that one. But, I've heard similar from town players a few times.

I am not sure what Penguin is referring to with you about being aggressive. My concern was actually the opposite: based on the one game we played, you were much more aggressive pushing a case on JasonWazza and completely changing the direction of the game.

PA, in the newbie game of yours that I replaced into, everything that has worked for me replacing into games in the past didn't just not work - it failed so badly that I wound up being mislynched. I don't get mislynched all that often. It was sobering.

I think you played quite well. You came in, figured out who the scum was immediately and pushed for a lynch. It was primarily

one

player's paranoia that got you mislynched and POE, since everyone but you and Jason were obvtown. With a different playerlist, it wouldn't have happened.

---

Toomai's behavior in this game also has a lot of the qualities you mentioned.

Spoiler: selected quotes from this game

Vote: JasonWazza

His posts consist as follows:

1. Random vote.
   
2. VOTE: is scum.
   
3. You're inconsistent.
   
4. You're parroting.
   
5. VOTE: is scum. You're inconsistent.
   
6. Filler?
   
7. VOTE: is scum (implied).
   
8. VOTE: is scum.

Give us something real.

Makes a case based on Jason's posts.

Are you planning on telling us why you have scumread instead of just yammering on that you have one?

Strongly worded accusation.

I'm having a look for passive voice in LnnnGrrrR's town game here:

Really what is the point in this? Seems like nothing more than a distraction.

Inquisitive nature with a strong dismissive tone. This matches up with him saying he had a weak aggregate townread on LngrrrR and that he felt that the passive voice thing was BS.

Now that that's over, I can say for sure that yeah Stubbs is pretty scummy. The case in 200 currently has me convinced; 157 in particular stands out to me as awful. But I won't be voting him until he can reply to all this.

Strong stance on Stubbs. Says that a post is "awful" and that the case has him convinced.

I really want to post but I have nothing to contribute. I have weak, aggregate reads on four players and doubt the correctness of all of them.

Which four players? Why do you have the reads you have on those players?

JasonWazza: Slightly scummy because of what he's done so far (i.e. nothing but claim that he has a scumread and that he'll elaborate later). To be honest I feel like I should consider him null until he actually elaborates, but I feel his attitude about it (especially early on) is anti-town at best.
LnGrrrR: Slightly town because...don't know to be honest, it's mostly an aggregate of extremely slightly town posts.
Fegelein: Slightly town for the same reason as LnGrrrR (i.e. basically gut).
Squilly: Currently of the opinion he's newbietown, since I think someone with claimed offline experience would put a bit more work into learning how to be town online.

A wide focus of scumhunting.

I am Argus Filch, JoAT just like stubbs claims to be.

Follower, Reporter, Voyeur.

Given that this is pretty weak overall, and fits in flavour, I'm inclined to believe it.

Still don't like how he's yet to explain anything but I'm keeping my vote on Marquis.

Definitive stance about the claim.

I will share who I protected after everyone checks in.

Why would you wait? Why does it matter?

Wait a second, the mod told you that you were blocked?

Well he claimed a JOAT with a Cop part, so if he got no result he'd know he was blocked.

It should be said however that this is a pretty easy way to hold up a fakeclaim. (I doubt the Stubbs claim more than the other claims at this stage.)

More inquisitive questioning.

Here is what I don't get... If Stubbs was roleblocked, why weren't Jason or I killed? Scum trying to introduce WIFOM and have town mislynch? Just throws me off.

Yeah this is rather suspicious. Leaving both claimed JOATs alive for the mindgames isn't hard to believe, but the uncountered 1-shot Doctor is somewhat. Maybe they were fishing for an unclaimed PR? That would presume that both JOAT claims are town, which I currently don't think is likely.

More questioning, taking stances, refusing to believe both JOAT claims as town. He has been pretty anti-Stubbs the entire game.

In post 523, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:124 is terrible where he asks ffery what the point is of having a look for passive voice in lngrrrR's town game. I think it is fairly obvious: if LngrrrR generally uses passive voice as town, then it becomes a null tell. LngrrrR was also the hot topic for discussion at the time, so checking up his meta is hardly a distraction.

The whole "passive voice" argument seemed like pointless, pedantic garbage to me and went on way too long.

Another strongly worded stance.

Fruit vendor plus one-shot doc that may only stump rather than save plus weak JOAT =/= strong JOAT. And the fruit vendor fits as a negative utility town role.

UNVOTE: MSG

Intent to vote for Stubbs pending his checking in here.

I don't get this post. What do you mean by saying that three weaker claimed roles "is not equal to" one stronger claimed role? How is Fruit Vendor negative utility? Why would you need to declare intent to vote to L-2?

More questioning and demands for explanation.

---

I could keep going. The only thing he doesn't do here that he did in the other games is push back strongly in defense when accused.

Some of your quotes from the other game are responses to accusations, not pro-active behavior. For example, this one is rather out of context:

Subject: Mini 1464 - Game Over
Subject: Mini 1464 - Game Over

wat

Your first post in three days is filler? Really? Why do you not post any insight on the discussion since then?

I've skimmed (very lightly skimmed, mind) day one of his newbie games, and iso'd him in those games,

anything in particular you want to share with us to back it up?

No.

So you re-evaluate a read based on meta and decline to give concrete examples as to why, okay.

Aggressive questioning here.

Aggressive questioning here.

It is a response to 2birds1stone voting Toomai but not providing any solid reasoning. When Toomai asked him if he cared to share the reasoning, 2birds said "no" which led to the more aggressive question from Toomai.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I thought I acknowledged that in my post last night? That I was seeing strong defense in some posts and interpreting it as offense in my first readthrough.

You said that you had interpreted strong defense as offense in a lot of posts and decided not to mention those posts. I was referring to the post I quoted where you said "aggressive questioning" in response to a defense.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I was more than half-expecting a scum flip after F16's arguments about the ability names.

What are you talking about? You said you didn't buy my argument about ability names and that Stubbs was scum for different reasons.

I point out my concerns:

I don't buy it. All the abilities both in this game and in the previous one are based on the theme.

1) Fred and George's sibling abilities are called "Gred and Forge"
2) Snape's Jailkeeper ability is called "Detention"
3) Peeves's vanilla cop ability is called "Haunting"
4) Lockhart's useless ability is called "Vend"
5) Filch's abilities are called "Follower" "Reporter" and "Voyeur"

Yours doesn't fit in. There is no way I can see Colin's abilities actually being "cop" "doc" and roleblock"

And you reply:

The Filch abilities are actual abilities/roles listed in the mafiascum wiki.

That's not where my discomfort lies. It's more about the power differences in their abilities.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Penguin, can you answer my question about MSG?

Can you elaborate on what this difference was as far as reading MSG's posts in his ISO and reading them in thread? I want to see what your thought process was here. How did it lead you to different conclusions? (I am assuming you meant "weakest scum read" in 791).

Also, when did this change happen? You voted MSG Day 2 and continued to push him as scummy. Day 3, you came out saying that MSG is town. What happened in the interim to change your mind?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't like Toomai lynch.

I was looking through Nacho's meta in Amnesiac mafia and instead fferyllt's posts caught my eye. Her play here is nothing like her town game.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ ffery, okay. I understand that not all play as town/scum is similar so that has to be accounted for. I still need to meta more of you/Nacho/Penguin to sort the 3 of you out. What are all the possible scum pairs that you can think of and how likely to be believe each of them are?

I read as Toomai as town and prefer not to lynch him although I do want him to come and finish up all his reads before I can definitely either defend him to the death or go with his lynch.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Jason, why is Toomai a good vote? Talk to me about your suspects and who you think is town, possible scumteams etc.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, questions. I'll just quote since I'd rather the links show up as well.

Okay going to try and get this finished now.

Nachomamma8/Syryana:

• 163 (-1%) Vote with no reason. JW did have 2 votes at the time, but neither were recent.
  
• 165 (+1%) Explained previous vote with same reasons I had.
  
• 193 (+1%) Looks like town questioning.
  
• 298 (-3%) I said it in 304 - "catchup post" that followed the leading wagon with nothing else.
  
• 376 (+1%) It strikes me as unlikely that scum would admit to not knowing who they want to vote for.
  
• 437 (+1%) After having reread, these reads mostly match what my own (re-evaluated) reads are as of this post.
  
• No post since then has stood out to me as net towny or net scummy. If anything, most of Nacho's posts are swingy-null (as opposed to static-null).
  
• Result:
  0%

Why is a vote with no reasoning more likely to come from scum? Is this coming from your experience with scum voting for no reason?
How is 193 town questioning? What about the questions made them more likely to come from town?
How so? You seem to read Penguin as slight town, me as town, and if you are town, it should be obvious that he is wrong.

penguin_alien:

• 24 (+1%) It could still be RVS at this point; scum would probably want to continue that instead of asking this question.
  
• 190 (+1%) Similar question as 24, in a way.
  
• 538 (+1%) I agreed with the MSG sentiment.
  
• 549 (-1%) I liked this case on p_a.
  
• 566 (-1%) This one too, despite focusing on a post I previously agreed with.
  
• 719 (+1%) I like the line of thinking in here.
  
• 802 (+1%) I'm not sure I agree with it, but this thinking is also reasonable.
  
• Result:
  +3%

In your graph in post 739, you have Penguin Alien as the scummiest player in the game. In 757, you have Penguin as weak-scum (your only scumread). In 778, she changes to weak null-town. The only post she had made in between that change of reads is 771. So, this must have been the post that changed your read. Why not comment on it? Also, what about that post changed your read from a weak scumread to a weak townread?

MSG/oriole:

• 23 (-1%) Okay it's RVS, but this didn't look RVS-y and lacked reasoning.
  
• 25 (+1%) Reasoning was then given here.
  
• 28 (-1%) ...and then it was pointed out here that he only answered half the question.
  
• 321 (+1%) Don't think scum would try to ruin a buddy's fakeclaim this early.
  
• 381 (-1%) Don't really like the "have my doubts" part. Gut I guess.
  
• 437 (-1%) Calls out 433. I didn't have a problem with it originally, but seeing it spelled out here changed my mind.
  
• 509 (-1%) Brought up the "how do you know you were blocked" question again, after it had died down somewhat. I don't see how that helps.
  
• 530 (-1%) This just bugs me, I don't know why. Unnecessary post at best.
  
• 596 (-1%) Stubbs didn't really ignore the questions in my opinion.
  
• 653 (+1%) I might have asked this question too.
  
• 742 (+3%) Towncasepost. I can't find anything significant wrong with it.
  
• Result:
  -1%

Syryana called out MSG because he was voting on flavor i.e. he was voting based on which claims he bought and which claims he didn't buy. Why is this scummy? So far, you have two strong townreads and they are both based on claims to the point that you did no behavioral analysis. It follows that you consider claims to be of at least significance importance. Why do you agree with an argument claiming that voting based on flavor is bad?

RachMarie:

• 47 (+1%) I agreed with this.
  
• 99 (-1%) This post is a fat lot of nothing. Okay, "been sick", but I think the post might have actually been better if "been sick, more later" was its only content, instead of filling it up with filler.
  
• 161 (+1%) Asked question about at-the-time baseless read.
  
• 264 (+1%) Poking of Marquis to actually do something.
  
• 355 (+1%) Flavour counter-evidence. Not sure why scum would bring it up at this point.
  
• 480 (-1%) I feel this is an "Obvious much?" post. I.e. filler.
  
• 603 (+1%) Setup speculation, but positively. Raising Stubbs as potential scum-JOAT made his claim look kind of worse in my opinion.
  
• 689 (-1%) This speculation however rubs me the wrong way. Not entirely sure why.
  
• Result:
  +2%

I like the Rach-read. It makes sense.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't understand what #3 here is referring to.

You said that after having re-read, Syryana's reads mostly match your own. However, Syryana was suspecting me, you, and Penguin. You seem to read Penguin as slight town, me as town, and if you are town, it should be obvious that he is wrong. How did they match your reads?

It was still Day 1 at the time, and it's my feeling that only the totally ridiculous PR claims should be lynched D1. Stubbs's claim was only farfetched, not ridiculous, and there were arguments about power vs. flavor that made it less appealing to poke.

Okay, this makes sense but I have another question:

You had no problem voting Jason and Marquis D1. Why didn't you want to vote for Stubbs until "he could reply to all this?"

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am going to post a few quick scenarios. More detailed analysis will have to wait till the weekend. I discount Amrun, Jason, Rach, and JacobSavage being scum. I gave extensive reasoning for it and am convinced they are all town. Toomai is a little more difficult to determine. Nacho/ffery/Penguin are almost unreadable. I won't completely discount any of them being scum. That leaves us with 6 scenarios:

1) ffery/Penguin

- This is the least likely. If you are scum together, then mad props to both of you. I discount this pairing.

2) Nacho/Penguin

- Possible. Nacho sees Penguin in trouble and has her as a top scumread bussing her. Then he kills Jason or me tonight. Amrun helps him mislynch Toomai after which he kills the other of me/Jason. That leaves him with ffery, Jacob, Rach, and Amrun. Jacob mislynch is easy. Perhaps he kills ffery and gets Rach or Amrun to vote each other? Alternatively, he kills Amrun instead of me and gets me (and possibly MSG who was in the slot at that time) to vote ffery to lynch her. Then kills Amrun and gets Rach to vote MSG/Jacob.

3) Toomai/Penguin

- Possible. If this is the case, they pretty much already lost. They can't go for any of the obvtown players (me, Amrun, Jason, Rach). Their only choice is to go for the less obviously town but more difficult to lynch players (ffery, Nacho) or to go for the only relatively easy mislynch (MSG/Jacob). They have both certainly expressed suspicion of MSG. I find MSG suspicion unjustified considering his ffery-trajectory only makes sense as town.

4) ffery/Toomai

- Not very likely. ffery sees Toomai getting heat and starts looking for reasons to suspect him? It is somewhat of a stretch. Besides, I can't see ffery-scum with Nacho-town. Nacho is way too sure about his ffery-read so either he is town and right, scum and buddying town-ffery, or scum and protecting his partner. I am definitely using burden of proficiency on Nacho and I think it is justified considering what I learned of his and ffery's background. On the other hand, I can see Nacho fooling ffery but I can't see it happening the other way around.

5) Nacho/Toomai

- Possible. Nacho wants Penguin lynch but sees Amrun deciding to go for Toomai. He decides that a bus is the best shot at towncred. After all, there are PRs for the mafia to kill and a good player like Nacho reaching 3P LYLO won't raise too many eyebrows in this situation. After the Toomai bus, possibly kill Jason. Use my help to mislynch Penguin, and then kill me. That leaves him with ffery, Amrun, Rach, and MSG/Jacob. Amrun and Rach help him kill MSG, then he kills Amrun/ffery and convinces Rach to vote the other. It is not optimal but it would be his best shot.

6) Nacho/ffery

- Possible and likely. This is the pairing that I most fear. Their gameplan would be fairly straightforward. Lynch Toomai now. Kill Jason. Mislynch Penguin, then kill me. That leaves them at 5P LYLO with Amrun, MSG/Jacob, and Rach. Getting one of Amrun/Rach to vote MSG slot would be a cakewalk. Although, the paranoia would be high and they would have to sell someone as being in a scumteam with Jacob.

---

The only person who closed off the MSG/Jacob as scum option is ffery. Nacho/Penguin/Toomai are all going for MSG. That and the fact that there is no way that ffery is scum with Nacho town means ffery is a bad choice of lynch.

Any of the other 3 (Nacho/Penguin/Toomai) are fair game. I'll get to the three of them this weekend.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I need to update this since there is no way Nacho can vote ffery before LYLO. So, the scumplan would actually be like this:

2) Nacho/Penguin (updated)

- Possible. Nacho sees Penguin in trouble and has her as a top scumread. Then he does a bait and switch and mislynches Toomai. He kills Jason tonight. Then busses Penguin hard and kills me. That leaves him with ffery, Jacob, Rach, and Amrun. Jacob mislynch is easy. Kills ffery and gets Rach or Amrun to vote each other.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

For the sake of completeness, I'll include MSG/Jacob. This is a bit simplistic but I am of the opinion that among players that are intimately familiar with each other, the better player usually doesn't read the other incorrectly - at least not to the extent as shown here. So:

1) ffery/MSG (Jacob)

- Unlikely as ffery-scum, Nacho-town doesn't make sense.

2) Nacho/MSG (Jacob)

- Unlikely as ffery wouldn't have such a strong townread on MSG.

3) Penguin/MSG (Jacob)

- Same as (2)

4) Toomai/MSG (Jacob)

- Same as (2)

@ ffery, how sure are you that MSG/Jacob is town?

These combined with my independent townread on MSG leads me to discount all three pairings. Rach, Penguin, Nacho and everyone else that suspects MSG/Jacob: who do you think he is paired up with? I find 3 and 4 rather unlikely which is what you seem to be getting at. The assumption is that he got ffery who has played plenty of games with him completely fooled while he is scum. I don't find this likely. It is possible - no one is infallible - but not probable.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I want to think this through without the BOPing anyone as well since anyone can be fooled.

I have my reasoning for MSG/Jacob that I feel confident about regardless of anybody else's read on him.

That just leaves ffery/Toomai scumteam with Nacho as town. I don't really see an endgame there. ffery starts moving towards a Toomai bus. Once that is done, kill Jason and lynch Penguin. Once that is done, kill me and lynch MSG. Then kill Nacho and get one of Rach/Amrun to vote each other? There are one problem there. She can't lynch MSG without backpedaling really hard. Nacho's presence would be a difficult to deal with.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

3)

Toomai/Penguin

I don't think MSG/Jacob will be an easy lynch, at least while I'm alive. I could be wrong about the slot. If so, I'm adamantly wrong and it will take some doing to convince me of it.

But this is the pairing you are pushing as the most likely one, isn't it? I guess it is possible. Penguin isn't playing to her town OR scum meta and Toomai has been inactive. Perhaps, they realized they were trapped - their only easy mislynch being MSG but if you adamantly oppose it, that becomes hard as well.

5) Nacho/Toomai

Maybe. I haven't seen that Nacho busses as a first-line strategy and it would surprise me if he did that here. Have you seen him do this in other games?

Based on your Nacho-scum model (surely you have one, don't you?), what would he do as scum if he replaced into a scum slot with Toomai as his buddy and Toomai is under imminent threat of being lynched? Would he bus? Would he try to divert the lynch? If so, who would he try to divert it to?

The only person who closed off the MSG/Jacob as scum option is ffery. Nacho/Penguin/Toomai are all going for MSG. That and the fact that there is no way that ffery is scum with Nacho town means ffery is a bad choice of lynch.

I don't really follow this. Why am I a bad choice of lynch?

Because the only person I can reasonably see as your partner is Nacho whereas I can see Nacho-scum and you-town. Also, you are the only one who shut down MSG as a lynch option - all of Penguin, Nacho, and Toomai pushed for MSG-scum and I think that scum are more likely to not have him townread because it takes away an easy lynch. I think MSG suspicion is unjustified and we see eye to eye on that so less likely that you are scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

Do you disagree with Amrun that Toomai is a good choice of lynch? What is your most recent read on MSG? Who do you think is the best choice of lynch right now?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

If you think I'm a good flip, then go ahead, I'm kind of a distractional detriment to town right now.

If you are town, allowing yourself to be mislynched is pro-scum. In a Mini, scum need to mislynch 4 townies to win. Town need to lynch 3 scum. So far, we are at 1-1. Why give up and make it 2-1?

If you don't want to play, the ideal solution is to ask to be replaced, not lynched.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?

He's a strong scumread at this point.

You had him as null when you first came in. What changed that he is a strong scumread now?

@F-16 why do you CONSTANTLY refer to Philosophers stone?

Same mod, same theme. It helped with setup speculation and got me to realize that Stubbs was likely scum.

give up

I'm not giving up. I'm saying that if the purpose of my lynch is for information, then I'm fine with that and won't bother wasting time defending against it.

I don't recall who said that the purpose of your lynch was for "information." Regardless, the info gained from a scum lynch is exponentially higher than that gained from a mislynch (through associative tells). The best move is to always push your scumreads as opposed to submit to an information lynch.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, I disagree about Toomai. Mostly because while he remains possibly scum, his ISO has almost no useful information, which means even if he did flip scum, there's not much in terms of pinpointing the last scum there.

Why does that even matter? If he is scum, then good. Lynching scum always trumps associative tells.

Did you ever make your decisions on the basis of whether the flip will provide associative tells before as town?

MSG was getting townier, and if I had to guess I'd say the replace-out was towny. I want to see what JacobSavage does with the slot, as I've played with him a bit. My initial take is that scum would be more likely to come in with a plan of attack instead of kibitzing.

At the moment my lynch preference is Nacho.

Can you link the game where you played with JacobSavage?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, ffery thoughts on Toomai's deathwish?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Which pairing in particular do you disagree with me on ruling out?

Can you provide reasoning for why Toomai is the best lynch?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Amrun, I agree with a lot of your points especially that the Stubbs-Toomai interactions look like scum-scum. Not updating his reads after the flip seems unlikely to come from town as well.

I'd be happy to lynch Toomai after more discussion takes place - especially from the JacobSavage slot.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Toomai, what worries me is that several of us went through your games and commented on your meta. Amrun outlined a case for why you are scum. You haven't responded to any of those and you haven't pushed back on anybody in the game. I see some common elements from your other games in this one but the major difference has been that you haven't been responding to the attacks on you or pushing back. Is there a reason why you are playing differently here in that respect?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I've been rethinking my read on MSG/JacobSavage lately, and I'm feeling a lot better about that slot being town.

Why?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Stubbs self-hammer served the obvious purpose of ending discussion. There could be a number of other reasons as summarized in this post in the mafia discussion thread, and I think it is mostly WIFOM.

Maybe your wagon is all town, and you want people to question if you're being bussed, so you self-hammer to show that scum had given up on your survival. Maybe your scumbuddies are on your wagon, and you want to make it look like that's what happened. Maybe the discussion is heading in the right direction and you want to cut it short. Maybe it's heading in the wrong direction and you want to make it look like you wanted to cut it short because it was heading in the right direction.

@ Penguin, regarding your "vocal" player, I am not sure what you mean by vocal. LngrrrR had the highest post count at that time and is still one of few players with 100+ posts.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

fery why are you so sold on both of them being town? Who do you think is scum then?

Both of who?

PA and Toomai are in my scumpile. And maybe Nacho. I feel strongest about PA.

I do too. I'd prefer to lynch PA over Toomai.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

For Stubbs to self-hammer when his lynch wasn't inevitable and would provide us with the first scum flip, he had to have good reason to do it. Otherwise why not let a scum teammate hammer him for the cred? Unless they're both on the wagon, but in that case I'd bet on Toomai being one of them anyways.

I think his lynch was inevitable. He hammered when it became a matter of not whether he would be lynched but when he would be lynched. Note the posts preceding his hammer.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

So why not let someone else hammer? If it was so close to happening by your thinking? What discussion was happening that you think scum found dangerous enough to want cut off?

If Syr was scum and hammered providing reasoning of his own, people may use it against him. If Syr was town and townslipped while hammering (perhaps by saying something about the flip that only an uninformed player would say), people might realize he was town.

Regardless of his affiliation, more information = good for town. Shutting off that info has a clear scum motivation by itself. Speculating as to what that info might be is WIFOM.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

VOTE: Penguin_Alien

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@Mod, you replaced MSG, hello

Will hammer Toomai if it gets to the deadline.

I like P_a's thinking

PA's thinking is based entirely on the fact that Stubbs self-hammered - based on that she deduces that his buddies were already on the wagon. She doesn't consider that perhaps that's what he wants us to think. That line of reasoning goes nowhere.

Of all the info about Toomai, his charts, his graphs, his votes (or lack of them), his resignation to being lynched, even with all that data to analyze, Penguin wants to lynch Toomai because Stubbs self-hammered when Toomai was on his wagon - and I don't like it at all.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Claim: Justin Finch

-Flinch-Fidget-Finagle-Flap-Flack-Flutter-Flip-

Fletchley, VT

Nobody likes Hufflepuffs.

It occured to me that the Basilisk may be undetectable, given how it moves through the walls and no one's any the wiser. So penguin_alien might not actually be cleared as it.

Is the name posted in your role PM the way you said it or are you just posting it for fun?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'll hammer in a little unless you want to wait. I don't see the point in extending this day till Sunday. I am anxious to see a flip.

Needless to say, if Toomai flips town, and I die, I strongly recommend you rethink your power lynch pool.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Actually, don't hammer. There is something I want to check really quick.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

A scum game of Toomai just finished. Will post more when I finish reading.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, I'd like to hear Nacho's and ffery's take on it before we make a final decision. Toomai not voting Penguin who is the only counterwagon is puzzling me as well.

My preliminary thoughts on this are that the level of certainty he exhibited in his scum game is much higher than what he did in his town games. In his town games, there were times when he just felt lost and didn't know what to do. In his scum game, I don't see that tendency. He casts a vote on the L-2 wagon immediately upon replacing in. He seems sure of what he wants and where to place his votes. He has a "scummy" read, a "scummish" read, and a null read in his initial catchup with the rest of them being null town or town to some degree. It certainly looks like someone who is image-conscious in that he needs to provide scumreads, nullreads, and townreads. In this game I see none of it. He doesn't seem to give a crap about who is a "scumread" and who is a "townread." His list contains all nulls and he seems a lot more lost and uninformed.

Nacho, I find your certainty about Toomai flipping scum very troubling. In this game, you were sure that Toomai was scum and were wrong. Yet, here you show not the slightest hesitation in saying that he is scum. If I strongly ead someone as scum when they were town, I think I would be a bit more wary about scumreading them immediately in the next game and wonder how much of it is a playstyle issue and how much they naturally play scummily.

---

I want to hear what ffery thinks as well but I am don't feel good about lynching Toomai based on my meta-read.

I am going to reread through Amrun's case and note his interactions with Stubbs. She makes a lot of good points about his in-game behavior which undermine my meta-read but I'd like to go over each point in detail so we know we are making the right decision.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Penguin who is the only counterwagon

Wait penguin_alien has two votes? Should go there instead.

Vote: penguin_alien

Wait, what happened to allowing yourself to be lynched for information? Now you don't hesitate to vote someone just because they are a counterwagon.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Another note, posts like this saying that he has 0 leads only seem to come when he is town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

UNVOTE: Toomai

Hate the 'vote the counterwagon' attitude, but I'd expect scum to be minimally aware of who else is a viable lynch when they're on the chopping block.

VOTE: Nacho

Toomai is posting the exact same way in the game F-16 links, you read him wrong there, and you want him lynched here?

How is he posting in the exact same way? Can you elaborate in detail?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Umm Toomai was scum in that game if you see similar posting here how does that make it town here instead of scum?

No, he's town here. As F-16 linked. Nacho reads him as scum and is wrong. Meanwhile,

he's wandering around there with no clue and using his percentage points gimmick, just like here.

And like I said, I would expect scum being run up to know who the next most viable lynch is without detouring onto JS.

The bolded was extensively discussed by Nacho, ffery, and me earlier. Why no comment then?

Pedit: Rach, I posted several links. PA must have been referring to the town games.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, but that is not really a good way of using meta. The "resemblance" could just be his personality. That's about as good as Marquis claiming that you blaming your inactivity on being sick.

A better way to think about it is whether you read his town games and whether his behavior here matches up more closely with the town games or the scum one.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

*Marquis claiming that you blaming your inactivity on being sick is indicative of you being scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

No one is sick. I was explaining to Rach that using a single data point as the basis of a meta-read is flawed. Marquis apparently played a game where Rach was scum and sick, then started scumreading Rach here because she was sick.

What other things were you focussing on? Can you talk about those other aspects of the game that made you scumread Toomai? At what point in the game did you read Toomai's town games? How much of them did you read?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

15 posts and a game where he replaced in during the final 10 pages. I'm not sure how that's going to compare to a game where he's scum from the start. It's definitely different from his other games. Less moving the vote around, but at that point in a game there aren't as many places to move a vote and it looked like town had pretty firm ideas about where they were going next mostly, and as scum the options probably seem more limited than they really are. Interesting to see that he did keep at least the semblance of his processes in that game.

So, you are still saying Toomai and Penguin are scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think we should lynch Nacho.

UNVOTE:

by the way. I'll think about this.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

7 more hours. I don't see the point in waiting till 5 minutes before deadline.

VOTE: Toomai

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Thanks for modding Nexus. Regardless of the number of replacements, I had a lot of fun playing this game. I absolutely loved the quotes on top of the votecounts - it brought back nostalgia about my first time reading HP&COS. I think I was 12 at that time (same age as Harry). I thought it was excellently modded. I also had a lot of fun playing with this playerlist. It really made a nice change that nobody in the game was ever antagonistic toward anyone else. I guess it is a part of mafia to be antagonizing but this was a refreshing change. I'd definitely jump at the chance to play again with most of the players in this game.

Town and scum both played well. Scum in particular dominated the game with higher activity levels later on in the game where as the town's activity level went down which was the only thing I didn't like from the town's end. I made most of my comments in the dead thread but I felt that Nacho and ffery played amazingly later on in the game and when people ultimately figured out that they were scum, it was too late to do anything about it (I was dead, Amrun was locked into being in a 1v1 with Nacho which would have scared the hell out of me). It would have been so fun to be scum in this game and share the scum QT with either of you.

Why did scum decide to clear Penguin and go for Amrun as a mislynch? I thought they were both strong players but Amrun was more obvtown. I never saw that strategy in the scum QT.

Personally, I thought scum were within Nacho, ffery, and Penguin for most of the game starting with my reads list on Day 3. I never got around to reading Penguin as town until the very end of Day 3 when I saw her unvote on Toomai and jump at Nacho. That eliminated them from being scum together and that's when things started to make sense. Given more time, I think we could have turned the tide but deadline was looming and it was too late to try and connect. I really think I wasted too much time reading Nacho's games and re-reading my completed games with him where I should have spent time was reading Penguin's games, understanding her playstyle and then clearing her. I also think I need to tone down on posting meta-analysis in thread because none of the town were interested at all.

An interesting strategy I incorporated into my playstyle was doing "reachouts." I saw that Nacho often does it as town and thought it would be a cool way to connect with other townies. I don't think it worked as well as it should have because Jason as good as ignored me but I'll try it again. I also tried to incorporate ffery's trajectories into my scumhunting repertoire. My town case on MSG was basically an attempt at that. I also think killing CDB on N1 played into a scum win as well. He played incredibly well and I wish I had more time discussing reads with him.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

That makes a lot of sense. I am guessing you never intended to survive throughout the game and pre-arranged your death with your buddy (like Dumbledore).

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nexus, are you going to do a Prisoner of Azkaban game next?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Interesting note: this game was probably the most time consuming game I've ever played given the number of other games that I've read in order to develop accurate reads in this one:

1) Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone (Amrun, Rach, and Penguin)
2) Open 495 (LngrrrR)
3) Newbie 1368 (LngrrR)
4) Open 469 (Rach)*
5) Newbie 1318 (Rach)
6) Open 489 (Rach)
7) Newbie 1415 (fferyllt and JasonWazza)*
8) Mini 1478: Mafia Xenologue (fferyllt and Nacho)
9) Micro 122:Meister Upick 2.0 (Penguin)
10) NY163: Void Mountain of the Nightless Temple (Syryana)
11) Mini 1449 (Toomai)
12) Newbie 1324 (Toomai and Nacho)
13) Mini 1494: A murder in murderville (Toomai)
14) Micro 223: Greater Idea (Stubbs and Nacho)
15) Mini 1462: Serra's fun house (Stubbs)
16) Micro 199: Nonsensical Narnia (ffery and Penguin)
17) Open 466: Avast! Viruses! (Nacho)
18) Newbie 1436 (ffery, was ongoing at that time)
19) Borkgame (Rach and ffery)
20) Micro 182: Buzzword Bingo (ffery and Nacho)
21) Mini 1508: Tales of Upick (Syryana and ffery)
22) Mini 1472: Welcome to Swagtown with ur boy Empire (Nachomamma)*
23) Amnesiac (Nacho and ffery)

Yeah, I am downright crazy for reading 23 games to play one.

*Experiential meta

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Actually 24

24) Chosen Mafia (Amrun and Nacho)*