Mini 1492: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets GAME OVER

[fferyllt]

hi guys

[fferyllt]

Why is the Squilly wagon bad and the Amrun one good?

Because even though Squilly's not making much sense, he's being proactive and trying to scumhunt.

^^ This.

Sqully have you played mafia elsewhere?

[fferyllt]

Jason's a lame vote. LnGrRRarrRRlnRgGGrNNrGrGg is where it's at.

How so?

[fferyllt]

I'm having a look for passive voice in LnnnGrrrR's town game here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

97 - pretty straightforward and active voice.

103 - is more indirect. 105 and 113 in that convo come off much more active and aggressive.

208 - is more descriptive.

279 - is more passive (and annoyed), and is followed with more of the same in 319.

I'll stop linking to specific posts. It's easy enough to cruise through the iso.

His iso in that town game is a mix of active voice and passive voice. Voice seems to signal reflection/introspection/decisions when passive, and scumhunting/digging for answers and reactions when active.

[fferyllt]

Liking Amrun, Channel and Fegelin for town.

Channel's post 82 case for voting LnGrrrR seemed reasonable for that point in the game day, but I was skeptical about the passive voice. Meta dive last night suggests skepticism was warranted. However, LnGrrrR's reaction to the pressure looked a bit over the top. Amrun's 121, in part about that reaction, is part of the reason I'm townreading her.

Squilly needs to produce content upon his next appearance if he isn't replaced.

Jason, I'm not liking your caginess about your reads.

Oriole, where are you?

Rach, you have any real reads yet?

[fferyllt]

These are just some quick impressions; I'll get more into this tomorrow.

ChannelDelibird - Town
Amrun - Town
Fegelein - Town

fferyllt - null-town, need more posts?

Syryana - Post more
LnGrrrR - Frustrated something - (scum caught for wrong reasons or town tunneled for grammar?)

Squilly - needs to explain some of his thinking next post
JasonWazza - Need reads list

StubbsKVM - Hypocritical asking Jason for reads when he's provided none
penguin_alien - post 132 has safe reads (Squilly, LnGrrrR, Jason scummy)
Toomai - if Jason's town, could see him being scum
RachMarie - possibly scum, need more posts


UNVOTE:

What is your rationale for seeing Toomai as possible scum if Jason is town?

[fferyllt]

you mean besides that I think squilly is scum?

You are prob town.

Will get to the rest after coffee.... Ugh gotta love not waking up til the middle of the afternoon....

That must have been one big cup of coffee.

[fferyllt]

Those not voting someone should vote someone already. Those who have posted reads of everyone in the game and still haven't voted should take a long, hard bath with themselves.

I won't be chivvied into voting before I'm ready to vote.

[fferyllt]

I'm having a hard time getting reads, but here's an attempt. Only slight scumreads on Jason for refusing to participate, Squilly for empty votes and Rach for having 2 reads. I'm having especially a lot of difficulty reading Amrun, so I just put him at null. LNG I think is just frustrated town.

Town

oriole
Fegelein

Leaning Town

ChannelDelibird
fferyllt
LnGrrrR

Null

Syryana
penguin_alien
Toomai
Amrun

Leaning Scum

JasonWazza
RachMarie
Squilly

Scum

N/A


P-Edit: Okay so Rach might be town too.

Do you have some reasons to go with this?

[fferyllt]

Mini catch-up:
#130 is backseating somewhat, and also slightly IIoA.
Penguin usually plays this strange backseating game as Town. I've not seen any scum games from her, anyone care to link me?
#136 is Town as fuck.
I don't like how LnGrrrR has to repeat that he's Town or a mislynch, common psychology there.
"Death tunneling isn't a bad thing.". Oh yes it is, although it's much worse in smaller games. I can show you an example if you want.
It's not a horrible case. It was a little weak to begin with, but it's grown on me.
Also, when was I part of the circle? Wasn't it Amrun, Channel and Squilly, not Amrun, Channel and me.

Here's my list of reads and stuff:
TOWN
Amrun
ChannelDelibird
Stubbs
fferyllt
penguin_alien
Toomai
oriole
Syryana
RachMarie
LnGrrR
JasonWazza
SCUM

The null zone starts at fferlyllt and ends at Syryana.

Weak reads on Stubbs and Rach.

Strong reads on the pairs at the top and bottom.

What's the basis for your Rach read?

[fferyllt]

I'm having a hard time getting reads, but here's an attempt. Only slight scumreads on Jason for refusing to participate, Squilly for empty votes and Rach for having 2 reads. I'm having especially a lot of difficulty reading Amrun, so I just put him at null. LNG I think is just frustrated town.

Town

oriole
Fegelein

Leaning Town

ChannelDelibird
fferyllt
LnGrrrR

Null

Syryana
penguin_alien
Toomai
Amrun

Leaning Scum

JasonWazza
RachMarie
Squilly

Scum

N/A


P-Edit: Okay so Rach might be town too.

How in the world do you have such a strong town read on oriole?

[fferyllt]

I won't be chivvied into voting before I'm ready to vote.

I will never understand people who approach the game this way

Welcome to feryland, we hope you enjoy your stay.

Heh.

Last game I played with her, she was a little more up-front and helpful. Now it's as if she's shouting stuff from the sidelines and not getting involved. Basically a variation of backseating.

What the fuck are you talking about? Fery's town as fuck.

I double-taked on that, too. But, he's saying this explanation of his read on Rach also applies to my question, not to my play. I think.

Fery, we need to have a get together and hash some people out. Come play wizu me plzkthx. I'll make you some peasant food n' shit.

What's cooking?

[fferyllt]

Fery, we need to have a get together and hash some people out. Come play wizu me plzkthx. I'll make you some peasant food n' shit.

What's cooking?

I'm throwing CDB and Amrun in some stew but I'm not sure what seasonings to use. Your thoughts?[/quote]

Pretty sure this is my first game with CDB. Most of my jasonwazza experiential meta is with scum-jason and I keep thinking about vengeball too. Last time I played with him I arguably didn't think enough about vengeball.

You feel like CDB and Amrun are going for low hanging fruit?

p-edit crosspost with CDB. Will have a look.

[fferyllt]

quote fail. I think it's decipherable.

[fferyllt]

The dictionary definition of a question that scum like to ask in order to look active but that actually offers next to nothing investigatively.

Clarifying rather than investigating.

His reads list makes almost no sense at all. I can see no reason to have different reads on me and Amrun by that stage, for example. The oriole townread is weird -

says he likes his readslist but it's quite different to Stubbs's

and the rest of it is because he

wants

him to be town? That's the sort of thing you make up after the fact to explain your behaviour, not that you actually use to inform your reads. Then there's the fact that he even made a readslist at all - the fact that he's offered no actual opinions or even actual suspicion up to this point mean that he can't be held accountable for the internal process of his reads and the fact that it comes after two other people just did (one of whom he is calling 'leaning scum' in that very post) makes it look like he's doing it to fit in, rather than because he wants to voice his opinion.

This (to Jason) is what you say to someone you're null on who you want to talk so that you can get a read, not someone you already suspect is scum for not participating. If Stubbs were town here, he'd just be calling Jason scum.

I did a comparison of Stubb's and oriole's reads lists after Stubbs replied to my question. I thought their lists had enough similarities to account for Stubbs liking the list. I wanted to wait for more interactions from both of them to see if clarification on the differences would happen, and who would initiate that. Oh well.

Some of your other points are pretty relevant. I have made comments in games about wanting a particular player to be town before. As town. I get flack for it, but when I think it could indicate some bias on my part I throw it out there. Players that I want to be town are usually the players I am most paranoid about.

One thing from metadiving stubbs for other games - he usually puts down pretty solid trajectories on his early votes/unvotes. Not seeing that here.

[fferyllt]

Not anymore. I was feeling kinda heebie jeebie about how easily Amrun and CDB started working with each other after that early "Amrun is scum" crap in RVS, but that last post by CDB gave me a raging hardon, so I'm not as concerned about him anymore.

How quickly do they usually sort each other? (I used to sort Nacho on the basis of 3-4 early day 1 posts. Then he had to go and eliminate his tells. :/)

Pedit: Oh, is that what you meant by timing? Makes a hell of a lot more sense.

Pedit2: You know you want to vote Stubbs nao, fery.

Yep. Checking vote count. And it's 3

Vote: Stubbs

[fferyllt]

oh god I've been gif'd

[fferyllt]

@Stubbs, I think town has waited long enough for Jason to provide something. He hasn't really done anything this game at all; his last post with actual content was Tuesday. That said, Im pretty sure he is town, but the pack of content is frustrating.

Really not liking Fferry's vote on Stubbs. In post 206, she says:

I did a comparison of Stubb's and oriole's reads lists after Stubbs replied to my question. I thought their lists had enough similarities to account for Stubbs liking the list. I wanted to wait for more interactions from both of them to see if clarification on the differences would happen, and who would initiate that. Oh well.

Some of your other points are pretty relevant. I have made comments in games about wanting a particular player to be town before. As town. I get flack for it, but when I think it could indicate some bias on my part I throw it out there. Players that I want to be town are usually the players I am most paranoid about.

One thing from metadiving stubbs for other games - he usually puts down pretty solid trajectories on his early votes/unvotes. Not seeing that here.

Mostly defense of Stubbs, with a slight "out" at the end. Then, post 207, Syryana says, "Pedit2: You know you want to vote Stubbs nao, fery."

To which Ffery responds in 208 with:

Pedit: Oh, is that what you meant by timing? Makes a hell of a lot more sense.

Pedit2: You know you want to vote Stubbs nao, fery.

Yep. Checking vote count. And it's 3

Vote: Stubbs

If you actually felt Stubbs was scummy, why didnt you vote him post 206? Why defend his views, then turn around and vote him 2 posts later? Syr didn't even give you a reason to change your mind, and you didn't list any when you voted. Feels pretty scummy.

The short answer is because Syr.

The long answer is that I am pretty deliberative about setting down and picking up my vote, and I had planned to stew on it for another hour or two when I made my post. I picked at the stuff I disagreed with in Channel's post and added something that I think is an additional argument for scum-Stubbs.

Syr and I hydra together a lot lately, and I've been playing more games as Rift Adrift than I have as fferyllt. I have a fairly detailed town-Syr model. This is town-Syr. He came to the snap decision to vote Stubbs at the same time (and over the same post) that I did what passes for a snap-decision in feryland, e.g., yeah I like stubbs for scum but I want to think about it for a while first. That was more than enough for me to say fuck it and vote.

[fferyllt]

Lol votes on me are pathetic, your voting me because i used an RVS reason even though i had a scum read?

What horse shit, go find a better wagon, and note that my RVS reason was about Amrun being scum.

Unvote

Jason, I don't think you ever explained why you have Amrun as scum.

[fferyllt]

Marquis do you ever plan on contributing something other than your one note song of "Rach is scum"?

What do you think of Jason?

What do you think of Amrun?

What do you think of anyone else actually?

rachtown.

[fferyllt]

Vote: Marquis

Frankly I feel JW has been more helpful.

How has Jason been more helpful?

Additionally, I will be pretty pissed if Marquis ends up getting replaced as well. It is still early enough to avoid a modkill, but I really dislike when a slot gets replaced multiple times.

I dislike this but I don't know why.

How do you feel about Rach now?

[fferyllt]

Hey Syr

It's down to just a couple days before nightfall. I'm thinking Jason may be the better lynch. He's been a lurksack all game day and has been pretty damned closed-mouthed when he does make an appearance.

[fferyllt]

I'll vote when I'm damned good and ready to vote.

[fferyllt]

Not a good match IMO. I've been thinking more about his play in Micro 186- Vengeball. Syr and I played that game as our hydra, Rift Adrift. Jason was one of the godfathers.

The newbie game you referenced, on day 1 he was quite strategic in terms of when he'd show up and what he would comment on.

[fferyllt]

Rach, so sorry. Condolences to you and your loved ones. Don't worry about game stuff.

[fferyllt]

Notice how lngrr's "would vote for" list is just people playing poorly, regardless of alignment. That's hallmark of scum. Ta!

This kinda bugs me, but I feel like it's been true of other scumpiles as well.

[fferyllt]

Vote: JasonWazza

L-1

[fferyllt]

Jesus Christ that scared me when another page showed up.

[fferyllt]

G'day.

What timezone is that?

MSG!

Unvote jasonwazza

I need a reset and reread. I'm doing a great job of hunting PRs so far. :/

[fferyllt]

I'm keeping my powder dry until I work out the players a but more. Fferylt is the only player I do know and I noticed that her early posts were quite tentative. Like post 81. Town fferylt is very activist in my experience, whereas as scum she can take a bit to find her feet.

JasonWazza looks the most objectively scummy though, based on (what I saw as) his evasive responses.

In this environment I play a much slower game. And sometimes a tentative one. I sometimes replace into games here, and I find that dropping into a game with 10-15 pages of data immediately available will bring out some of my 24-hour-game-day style of play. So will playing with a bunch of people that I have a few prior games with.

I agree about Jason. He still bugs me.

[fferyllt]

You realize the problem wasn't time, it was effort, right?

How much effort are you talking about here?

[fferyllt]

You realize the problem wasn't time, it was effort, right?

How much effort are you talking about here?

It was actually a really long post, and i got really pissed that it got killed.

This happened to me recently, when all the sql errors were happening last week. I wrote a huge and verbose reads/games state post. After yelling for a while and taking a walk, I came back and wrote a much shorter (but still pretty long by my standards) post that summarized my earlier post very well. Most of the verbose stuff was really me talking through things with myself, not necessarily something another player would want to read anyway if I'm being realistic.

Maybe summarize your earlier points?

[fferyllt]

Marquis, what changed your mind about Rach?

[fferyllt]

LnGrrrR looks scummier to you now?

[fferyllt]

The reason for your vote change then?

[fferyllt]

No I don't. I thought your rationale post looked good, but you were picking up on stuff that's related to her limitations with the knee injury, and that has affected all her games, not just the town ones.

I wondered if you had changed your mind about her, or if you think LnGrrrR is a more likely lynch candidate.

[fferyllt]

Marquis you didn't answer this earlier

The reason for your vote change then?

[fferyllt]

I think Amrun is right.

[fferyllt]

You'll note I didn't answer your question.

[fferyllt]

You are voting someone you would protect?

[fferyllt]

Losing a post sucks but you do need to explain your reaction to Stubbs's claim at an absolute minimum.

PEdit: p_a, why does one have to make more sense than the other?

Two JOAT claims. Could be town-town, town-scum, or scum-scum. Considering how much sense either of them makes is kind of the point. Jason not addressing the other JOAT claim is sketchy, and I'd rather not speculate further until he does, as it seems like we have more time now.

P_A, on reread this post kind of pings, that you included scum-scum.

What made you think this could be a possibility?

[fferyllt]

I doubt both are scum After all why would they do that to themselves? More likely one is scum and one is actually town.

My question was for PA.

[fferyllt]

:/

I'm here now and will be around before deadline. I'll hammer in a couple hours. Is there more to discuss first?

[fferyllt]

I'm not happy about this lynch, but we're looking at 2 hours to deadline. Given the usual pace of MS games I'm not sanguine.

[fferyllt]

2 hours I think.

[fferyllt]

I'd be willing to vote PA if there were a reasonable chance she could claim if she actually were run up.

I plan to hammer in about 45 minutes.

[fferyllt]

Thanks.

[fferyllt]

Please explain why you didn't hammer.

My neighbor came over with a sack of vegetables from his garden and we went out to my garden to reciprocate. I got back to my laptop with about 5 minutes to spare. F16 had already hammered thankfully.

[fferyllt]

I will share who I protected after everyone checks in.

Why would you wait? Why does it matter?

Wait a second, the mod told you that you were blocked?

Well he claimed a JOAT with a Cop part, so if he got no result he'd know he was blocked.

It should be said however that this is a pretty easy way to hold up a fakeclaim. (I doubt the Stubbs claim more than the other claims at this stage.)

You should have let Stubbs answer this.

[fferyllt]

MSG, you around?

[fferyllt]

Not liking toomai.

Feel like Rach has been putting more effort into flavor/setup spec than in the game state.

Liking F16 and Syr for town. Also leaning town on Amrun.

Jason and Stubbs having such similar roles bothers me. I really don't trust my ability to read Jason yet. Stubbs is not a high volume player from what I've seen, he's not made a good impressions so far.

PA's day 1 bothers me. I'll make some time to meta her tomorrow.

I'm going to take LnnGrrr's claim at face value for now. The way he outed on day 1 looked town to me.

[fferyllt]

Not in detail, going to sleep soon.

I can't see scum motivation in your attempt to move the lynch off marquis at the end of day 1 and I had a town read on your predecessor. Most of Syr's stances day 1 made sense to me. Toomai answering Jason's question pinged a little, though I see players do that sort of thing frequently. But, I feel like most of his lines of questioning on day 1 were pretty shallow and lacked follow-up.

[fferyllt]

she only voted twice in the day and managed to avoid having a vote on at the end of d1.

cdb suggested the basilisk should be mafia, not SK (which makes sense to me,) but would need some mechanism to be released

it struck me the 2 things could be connected

These are not 24 hour game days. I've become an Ent at MS.

[fferyllt]

That the basilisk is more likely mafia? Probably. I wouldn't assume an SK in a game this size without some evidence in the way of a night kill.

[fferyllt]

hey fferylt, are you still as sure about Syryana's town meta as you were in post 247 on Day 1? If yes I would be interested to know how given the very low participation...

Are you familiar with hydras at MS?

[fferyllt]

It's basically two people sharing the same role. They use chat or quicktopic threads to discuss the game, and both log in to the same account to post.

Syr and I have played a bunch of games together as a hydra. Right now, I'm playing more games as that hydra than I am with this (my main) account.

We've also played a bunch of games together with our main accounts. I feel like I know his town game really well.

He's on V/LA (Vacation/Limited Access) until sometime this weekend.

He tends to get away from games for a few days and then come back, usually with fresh perspective even when he's not on vacation.

[fferyllt]

So, I want to put some narrative up front on this. My impression of PA's play day 1 was that she goes after easy targets and hedges so I wanted to confirm or refute that. Almost right off the bat, Squilly came under fire for what looked logic failes and sketchy to nonexistant reasoning for his votes/stances. That's the kind of stuff I like to watch - to see who jumps on the obvnewbs or VIs and where they go as the game progresses.

...so you think Amrun could be scum, but ChannelDelibird is scum for voting him. Uh-huh.

VOTE: Squilly

Like several others, she jumped here.

I see where people say Squilly was scum-hunting, but it still seems like

the kind of fake scum hunting scum like to do

. Jason reads sketchy to me, but that might be residual paranoia from our last game together. LnGrrrR's reaction to the wagon looks worse than the reason he was wagoned in the first place.

This was a characterization with no backup really. She hedges on both Squilly and Jason in this post. Also, added some fuel to the LnGrrrR FoS fest that was happeneing at the time.

I'll see what Squilly's replacement does.

UNVOTE: Squilly

Stubbs, what's your rationale for voting Squilly-slot over JasonWazza?

I liked that she backed off when Squilly was being replaced. But, I thought this could be another move toward low hanging fruit and wondered why she didn't push Jason more at this point.

Tempted to put Stubbs at L-1. Much as I thought Squilly was scummy, and Marquis is pinging oddly, that Stubbs and LnGrrrR are on the wagon makes me uneasy. Whereas I like nearly all of the Stubbs wagon participants. Will see what Stubbs has to say when he gets back in here.

This looked like she was keeping her options open on the two main suspects at the time.

Stubbs, what's your rationale for voting Squilly-slot over JasonWazza?

Pressure votes don't seem to work on Jason.

But if he's a scum read, he's a scum read and thus worth voting. And pressure votes without follow-up pressure aren't super-useful.

VOTE: Stubbs

L-1

On reread, this one particularly stood out, because she'd FoSed Jason herself but didn't pressure him. So if votes don't work, how do you sort someone? She addressed very little to Jason on day 1 and seemed content to let a scumspect slide here.

I don't think I've played with town-Jason, but his pointed comments and veneer of...being infalliable? are reminiscent of his scum play from the large Mainstream game where he snowed us town. I don't have town reads on Marquis or LnGrrrR, but I don't trust Jason at all right now.

UNVOTE: Stubbs
VOTE: JasonWazza

But, here she does vote, at a point in the game where he was picking up votes from others.

UNVOTE: JasonWazza

Not sure which claim makes more sense. Given the different action sets, the Filch claim is more in keeping with flavor, and IIRC, all the town PRs in the first HP game were adult characters.

I liked this post. It looked like genuinely trying to sort the two JOAT claims.

Losing a post sucks but you do need to explain your reaction to Stubbs's claim at an absolute minimum.

PEdit: p_a, why does one have to make more sense than the other?

Two JOAT claims. Could be town-town, town-scum, or scum-scum. Considering how much sense either of them makes is kind of the point. Jason not addressing the other JOAT claim is sketchy, and I'd rather not speculate further until he does, as it seems like we have more time now.

Another hedgy post.

I'd vote for LnGrrrR or Marquis, but I want to think more about it. If we're not touching the JOAT claims yet, that stands a decent chance of eating up our margin of error, which makes it more important to lynch right here.

Losing a post sucks but you do need to explain your reaction to Stubbs's claim at an absolute minimum.

PEdit: p_a, why does one have to make more sense than the other?

Two JOAT claims. Could be town-town, town-scum, or scum-scum. Considering how much sense either of them makes is kind of the point. Jason not addressing the other JOAT claim is sketchy, and I'd rather not speculate further until he does, as it seems like we have more time now.

P_A, on reread this post kind of pings, that you included scum-scum.

What made you think this could be a possibility?

Their interactions with one another's wagons weren't super-organic, especially Jason's intent to hammer. And neither one really pushed the other on the claim conflict the way I'd expect town to if someone else impinged on their role. (She says, from the perspective of having had scum accidentally receive my town character as a fakeclaim and subsequently flipping out. And that was just character, not the role name) If one flipped scum, our inclination would be to let the other slide. Plus, Nexus loves giving scum daytalk, which makes that kind of maneuver easier to coordinate.

Having said that, the part where LnGrrrR claimed an adult character with a PR and knowing that the PRs were with non-child characters last game (don't know what Peeves is) makes me inclined to believe Jason over Stubbs. So I'd lynch Marquis to avoid a no-lynch, but I think I like the Stubbs wagon better.

Didn't like this not organic argument. Sorting claims like this always seems awkward to me, and I've seen enough duplicate or near duplicate roles in games at MS that I tend to to assume it's moderator-planned mind-fuckery.

@Jason,

Here's the plan. Either scumhunt, or give results, or no protection for you, because you haven't done one towny thing yet this game.

@Rach, what are your current reads.

@PA, you had Stubbs and I as pinging scumdar yesterDay. Who is pinging now?

.

My thoughts on scum blocking Stubbs still stand from earlier. I don't think you're scum since, like I said, it makes little sense for you to start undermining CDB and then NK him. Maybe if he was a threat to others on your team and flips bear that out, but it's a point against you being scum. Your hop on Toomai is lazy, but not necessarily scummy, and it does seem to have prodded him into activity.

MSG spends a lot of time asking for other's opinions in a way that comes off as him looking for someone to sheep blame-free. He almost never gives opinions on other people's play; instead he asks them to see what they think of said people. I'd quote it from his ISO, but it's an easy read for anyone who cares to do so.

VOTE: MSG

This struck me as maybe another run at low-hanging fruit.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I leaning strongly town on Toomai based simply on the unique and effort-intensive scumhunting approach his VCA and his graph demonstrate. I want to check some of his scum games. F16, have you already done that?

[fferyllt]

Marquis do you ever plan on contributing something other than your one note song of "Rach is scum"?

What do you think of Jason?

What do you think of Amrun?

What do you think of anyone else actually?

This post felt like quintessential town rach to me all the way down to exasperation in the final question.

Her posts late day 1 and day 2 so far have chewed the edges of my read. :/ I'm not leaning as strongly town as I was at the time of the quoted post. I also felt like Marquis was coming off strongly town later on day 1 and it didn't look like Rach was adjusting to the new data.

[fferyllt]

@Ffery, does Syryana look scummy to you?

I have a town read based on his day 1 posts. The read's grown a little stale.

Amrun has some points about Stubbs. I'm going to do some review/meta-dive.

[fferyllt]

@Amrun re the 2-joats, it's my impression of site meta that keeps bringing me back to thinking there could be 2 town joats. I've played several games where claimed town roles caused skepticism. In one micro game there were two millers. In the AMOL game ThAd's explicit commuter role given all the commute-lite dreamwalkers made his claim look suspect.

The nuance thing, though, I think I agree. Stubbs' claim does have a "one of these things is not like the others" feel to it.

[fferyllt]

I want to hear from Syr before we end this game day.

[fferyllt]

The issue to me i that she's been hedgy and has repeatedly gone after low hanging fruit.

[fferyllt]

The Filch abilities are actual abilities/roles listed in the mafiascum wiki.

That's not where my discomfort lies. It's more about the power differences in their abilities.

[fferyllt]

I'd still like for Syr to post before the day ends, but we're kind of in a holding pattern here waiting on that.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, you've inherited stale town read of Syr from day 1.

Thoughts about the game?

[fferyllt]

I didn't want to hammer Stubbs before Syr posted some actual content. I didn't realize he was replacing out.

[fferyllt]

what difference would / could Syr's input have made?

To the lynch? Most likely none. But, getting his reactions and thoughts about day 2 would have been good for refining reads on him and on others. He wasn't likely to be a night 2 kill given the game state, but I've seen some pretty odd night kills on occasion.

[fferyllt]

Why would I not vote as scum? MSG?

[fferyllt]

Based on Stubbs' flip I am fairly confident that JW has told the truth about his role.

I did an extensive re-read of day 1 & 2 over the past couple of days (not much work on this week) and most of the players were town reads for me.

Town

Amrun
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
RachMarie
Toomai
JasonWazza

Neutral

penguin_alien

Scum

Nachomamma8
fferylt

VOTE: fferylt

The fferylt vote is based on a combination of in-thread play (e.g. avoiding voting) and game meta. She doesn't seem to be having fun, which is the difference between her town and scum games. I got the same feeling reading another game where she was scum (newbie 1403,) compared to games where she played as town (e.g. newbie 1415, Newbie 1389.)

"Not having fun" is not really alignment-dependent for me. This game is nowhere near "not fun", and I'm not really sure where you get that impression. Fun is mostly about the player list and the game interactions. Newbie 1389 and Raptured were two of the most unenjoyable games I've ever played. And my most recent completed scum game Micro 217 was a blast.

[fferyllt]

Why would I not vote as scum? MSG?

could be a number of reasons, including game mechanics. what's your point, other than to create WIFOM?

Aside from apparently not having enough fun, not having a vote down at the end of the game day is your CASE. I can't even count how many times at MS I have declared intent to hammer and someone hammered before me.

[fferyllt]

ffery, what are your reads? Who do you think is scum? Work with me. Right now the only people I am still not sure of are you, Nacho, and Penguin. Everybody else is a strong townread.

lol you asked this just as I was packing up to go home. When I got my laptop fired back up I had a bunch of posts waiting for me.

PA is my strongest scum read.

Rereading the thread during the night phase, I toyed with the idea that MSG's paranoia was at least partially manufactured, but I think not after reading through his last few posts.

With MSG moving up, one of my day 2 town reads probably bad. it could be Syr, but he usually plays a bold scum game from what I've seen reading meta. There was a Jungle Republic game I followed where he was scum that he won in 3p LYLO. The one game we have actually played where he was scum, he was super-inactive, but the entire scum team in the Perpetual MYLO game were badly demotivated.

I have a tendency to town-read Amrun in the early game when she's scum. Will review her tonight and look back at her early play in the Raptured game.

Rach, Jason, you, and to a lesser degree Toomai I feel pretty confident are town, too.

[fferyllt]

Why are you ignoring my posts? You still haven't provided any of your reads. More than MSG's case on you, I think MSG's progression of suspicion which can be glanced at from his ISO makes him really obvious town. POE means that two of you, Nacho, and Penguin are scum.

UNVOTE:

I am not as sure of Penguin anymore. I want to hear from her and Nacho and think about this further.

I am not ignoring your posts.

[fferyllt]

You're probably right, but there was a trememdous amount of cross-bussing on day 1 of that game.

Man if it's Syr I have a nearly new gently used scum-Syr model I'll sell cheap.

[fferyllt]

Town-Syr is pretty much equal parts troll and perceptive, decisive play. He goes to meta as a sort of last ditch effort when he can't get an effective read in other ways.

His scum game I think is well pesonified here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=27641

He busses with impunity if a teammate messes up, as fuzzybutternut did in the above game. It doesn't trouble him to take on ton-of-town to 1 odds, and he's really good at setting up a beneficial environment day by day with his night kills.

Given Stubbs' flip, I would have expected scum-Syr to push a lot harder for a Stubbs lynch than he did, purely for the cred and to cut off the associative stuff that would have been bound to take place.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, you've inherited stale town read of Syr from day 1.

Thoughts about the game?

It's a shame he couldn't leave while the read was fresh

I think it's strange that people are suspecting you at this point due to meta reasons; what's going on?

Says Oil Tycoons. What's strange about it?

[fferyllt]

LOL I figured that out. As strange as this game is, I doubt there would be TWO claimed fruit vendors.

I feel pretty good that Nacho is probably town fery.

I felt good about Syr on day 1. It takes a bit of interaction for me to sort Nacho. :/

I assume you're thinking he's town because of Syr. If you can town read nacho from one post, then I want to subscribe to your newsletter.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, you've inherited stale town read of Syr from day 1.

Thoughts about the game?

It's a shame he couldn't leave while the read was fresh

I think it's strange that people are suspecting you at this point due to meta reasons; what's going on?

Says Oil Tycoons. What's strange about it?

I expect for you to be attacked when people aren't familiar with your play, not when they are.

It depends on your definition of familiar.

Having trouble with the game?

Overnight, I thought it was close to solved actually. Now I'm not sure. Are you caught up?

[fferyllt]

Overnight, I thought it was close to solved actually. Now I'm not sure. Are you caught up?

Who did you think were the scumteam and what changed your mind?

I thought that there was some associative stuff Stubbs put down on day 1 that pointed to scum-oriole and therefore scum-MSG. I had a theory that PA was actually trying to bus a teammate with a less powerful role in an effort to keep a powerful scum PR alive another night. The alternatives to a Stubbs lynch evaporated pretty quickly.

But, MSG is looking pretty town, so I think the oriole/stubbs stuff wasn't scum-scum.

[fferyllt]

Meh, I'm trying to puzzle out the actions you used, Jason, but it's probably best to leave that up in the air.

[fferyllt]

Why did you read Rach town here? Marquis question?

Yeah, post 264, a set of rapid-fire questions, not "what are your reads", plus the slight irritability of the last question.

What made your Amrun read stale here?

She had been absent for a while.

Ffery has a tendency to townread people who attack her.

It's not so straightforward as that. It depends on whether (and why) I expect to be townread vs not.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, you didn't have much to say about MSG.

Who are you scumreading?

[fferyllt]

Colors are mine, FTR. Green is conf-town to me, blue is my current strong town reads.I tend to think that he put one buddy in null and one in leaning town. That makes fferyllt and either Nacho or Toomai scum based on my current reads. I think RachMarie and MSG are town. I need to read the spate of posts that made Toomai such a strong town read for people, but if I concur I'd want to lynch from {fferyllt, Nacho}.Stubbs' ISO is also rather sparse in interactions with both of those slots, but I might be working from confirmation bias.At the risk of outguessing the mod, I doubt scum has a third active PR besides the semi-strongman Basilisk and JOAT, so Jason's result does nothing to clear me of anything except Basilisk status.

Credit where credit is due for avoiding low hanging fruit this time.

[fferyllt]

MSG, I'm really, really unhappy about your linking me here to me there. I've gone to fairly intensive lengths to avoid that because of the stalkerish stuff that has gone on there.

[fferyllt]

I have some stuff to say about MSG but first I want to understand some background information:

ffery, how good is MSG at reading you and how good are you at reading him? MSG, same question. The more detailed the answer the better.

MSG has seen me play a lot of games, but hasn't played many games, himself. I can only remember one game we played together where he wasn't town. He replaced for the SK in a game for a couple of days. I wanted to wait until the main player was back before finalizing that read IIRC.

We have played at least one game where I was scum and it was probably one of my best scum games. The game featured night chat, so the game thread never closed. He figured me out the night we killed him. Fortunately town didn't really pay his case on me very much attention. We knew who the SK was in that game because we role blocked him on the only night where there was a missing kill. I used that info to devise a fake claim that I used on the final day, right after MSG posted his case.

Anyway. That game was over a year ago and I don't think I have played on that site since then.

[fferyllt]

I like nacho's catch up, but I mean like, he's taking pretty safe stances here. P_A is a general scumread, and I'm so town at this point that it's actually funny that scum can't even kill me unless they want to leave Jason alive, which is even FUNNIER. (This doesn't happen often, so let me revel in it, okay?)

What was your Syr read?

When Nacho is town, he'll usually have a read that surprises me a little and makes me reevaluate. More than one surprising read in a large game. Sometimes it's a player that I think is scummy that he's found a reason to see town motivation. Sometimes it's a player I'm townreading where he sees something scummy.

Usually after a game day or two our reads converge more when he's town. I don't think he's ever replaced in to one of my games later than day 1, so I'm not sure if the dissonance/convergence thing will be a big thing.

The Toomai read kind of fits that bill. I'm taking a naive "oh wow look at the effort" view of his charts.

I'm thinking he's town in part based on Syr's day 1 play, and in part based on not getting a major twitchy sense from Nacho's posts so far. If he's scum, I think I'll catch on.

[fferyllt]

The fooled once or twice goes both ways. It's been a whlie since I've had a really strong town read on you early in a game.

I miss the good old days.

[fferyllt]

F16, the thing that makes me feel MSG is town comes down to his paranoia about me. It's what he's reacting to in my posts, and why he reacts. His coming into the thread today with a theory about my not hammering was so freaking town. Before that, it was 500 where he expresses concern about my voting pattern. Unless he's meta'd me here, then he has no idea how majority lynch has impacted my voting behaviors. It's exactly the sort of thing that should catch the attention of someone who has seen me play in plurality lynch games, because that's the driver for playing a more tentative game here.

In the night phase, I was mostly looking for Stubbs partners, and there are some Stubbs posts that have weak links to oriole. MSG's play simply doesn't support that sort of association, though. Especially his play related to me.

Being the target of fake paranoia feels really different from the real deal. MSG's behaviors feel genuine and feel town.

[fferyllt]

No worries. I've PMed Nexus to see if it can be removed when it's no longer relevant to this game.

[fferyllt]

there are some Stubbs posts that have weak links to oriole

Like what?

Like Stubbs' first post in the game. That was either buddying or setting up a read on a partner. I now think buddying.

Then there was his reads list, with oriole at the top. He explains it here, saying he likes oriole's reads list and wants him to be town.

Post 240 he explains his first post, once again wants him to be town, and finally adds some explanation about why he likes the reads list. In post 241 he adds to that in reply to CDB's case.

He doesn't actually interact directly with the slot until MSG has replaced in and put down a vote in post 596. The vote happened as there was another momentum swing toward a Stubbs lynch. And that's the extent of his direct interaction with his strongest town read from early in the game.

Going back through this looking at it from the Stubbs side, it still pings. Factoring in MSG's posting, I think this was a cratered buddying attempt.

[fferyllt]

I don't really trust my ability to sort Nacho quickly right now, though I think I am starting to get a handle on his play again. I feel like he's intentionally brought aspects of his scum game into his town game, and he sometimes doesn't want to be townread quickly.

Syr on the other hand, the one game he and I have played where he was scum, I did decide he was scum pretty quickly. It started here with my reply to Syr's quoted post. Sangres is a hydra of Nacho and me. My reply pinged for GiF and he immediately voted me. Two posts down, Syr continued our convo and the reply that drew GiF's vote didn't ping at all for Syr.

We've talked about the game since it ended, and Syr says that the post would not have pinged if he'd been town, either. But, I think it would have.

Other people called Syr scum for different reasons, and the reasons did bolster my own read. But, for me it came down mostly to my off-tone post and his non-reaction to it.

I want to see more Nacho posts.

I'm going to go through some of Toomai's games tonight. I put meta'ing him aside because he has no scum games.

Rach, what is your gut saying now?

[fferyllt]

Still think Minions is scumz

Getting a bit concerned about Syr who said he was not going to replace out, then disappeared off the planet.... This is not like him to just flake out. However that is a much weaker read due to it could be RL issues and not his alignment.

but yeah Minions is scum...

Wrong game maybe? Nacho replaced Syr.

[fferyllt]

I also don't use differing reads as a scumtell for players unless I know them pretty well; a strong attack on me from this point by someone like Rach would be far different than if ffery were to attack me.

How so?

[fferyllt]

I've read through Toomai's 3 completed non-newbie games.

In Mini 1449 he's more of an interrogator. He asks questions as well as making observations and I think does go after people he suspects pretty strongly. I'm also seeing evidence of his analysis tools in the game. It shows up in his reads list and then later in vote tables.

Comparing that game to this one was actually alarming, because in this game, the only post that smacks of interrogation was his question to jasonwazza early day 1 here, which came after his case and vote.

His next game, Mini 1464 is similar to 1449 in terms of interrogation, and overall in terms of lots of interaction with other players.

And, in Mini 1491, he questions a fair bit in this game too. But the questions aren't as forceful and interrogatory, though from almost the start in this game he was under fire.

The other thing that stands out so far in this game versus the other three, though the difference isn't huge and striking, is the relative infrequency of votes. In the earlier games, it's clear he uses his vote as a scumhunting tool. In this game, especially after day 1, he's not using his vote to nearly the same degree or effect.

In all these games, there's evidence of his analysis tools.

[fferyllt]

Toomai: when Stubbs flipped scum, what did you think?

Probably something like "Okay, so JW has to be legit, and maybe Stubbs claimed town-JOAT to match his scum-JOAT because he suspected a detector".

Finished reread.

• Nachomamma8: unchanged, still null
  
• penguin_alien: weak nullscum → weak nulltown
  
• fferyllt: weak nulltown → weak town
  
• JasonWazza: unchanged, still town
  
• Amrun: weak nulltown → townish
  
• MSG: weak nulltown → weak nullscum
  
• FFF: unchanged, still town
  
• RM: unchanged, still weak nulltown

So yeah not really the best use of my time. That said, MSG is the most interesting bit here; I was starting to suspect that slot as a Stubbs partner, but recent posts by various people have been chipping away at that.

Talk me through why some of these reads changed?

[fferyllt]

I've read through Toomai's 3 completed non-newbie games.

In Mini 1449 he's more of an interrogator. He asks questions as well as making observations and I think does go after people he suspects pretty strongly. I'm also seeing evidence of his analysis tools in the game. It shows up in his reads list and then later in vote tables.

Comparing that game to this one was actually alarming, because in this game, the only post that smacks of interrogation was his question to jasonwazza early day 1 here, which came after his case and vote.

His next game, Mini 1464 is similar to 1449 in terms of interrogation, and overall in terms of lots of interaction with other players.

And, in Mini 1491, he questions a fair bit in this game too. But the questions aren't as forceful and interrogatory, though from almost the start in this game he was under fire.

The other thing that stands out so far in this game versus the other three, though the difference isn't huge and striking, is the relative infrequency of votes. In the earlier games, it's clear he uses his vote as a scumhunting tool. In this game, especially after day 1, he's not using his vote to nearly the same degree or effect.

In all these games, there's evidence of his analysis tools.

This post has a lot of good points. I'll reread those games again with these in mind and re-evaluate. Did you read the entire games or just his ISO?

Somewhere in between. I flipped between ISO and contextual.

[fferyllt]

I've read through Toomai's 3 completed non-newbie games.

In Mini 1449 he's more of an interrogator. He asks questions as well as making observations and I think does go after people he suspects pretty strongly. I'm also seeing evidence of his analysis tools in the game. It shows up in his reads list and then later in vote tables.

Comparing that game to this one was actually alarming, because in this game, the only post that smacks of interrogation was his question to jasonwazza early day 1 here, which came after his case and vote.

Okay, just went through this game and checked his ISO. My comments are in the spoiler.

Spoiler:

Mini 1449
32, has misgivings about how fast a wagon built up but lets it be anyways
87, reads Cherry Pie and Hapahauli as town since he wasn’t seeing poor logic on either side, votes NicCage for making 3 bad posts.
105, defends himself, asks for an explanation.
108, votes GCBC in response to hapahauli asking him why he dropped suspicion. Elaborates on his reasoning for his vote. Said that a sequence of posts contained dubious logic etc, and then provides questions for target to answer.
136, defends himself from a case, unvotes, says he doesn’t know how to create discussion.
164, points out 3 posts he doesn’t like, asks questions regarding why the player has no nullreads.
217, goes on VLA, comes back with a list of reads. He rarely actually explains WHY someone is scummy or not, only that they are. His best method of rooting out scum seems to be bad logic.
219, responds to an OMGUS accusation.
229, explains one read well, very reserved on explaining the others and doesn’t really expand much. Logic is again the primary, almost only differentiator.
Hapahauli’s 233 is interesting. He points out that Toomai has a lack of initiative and barely asks any questions, and even the ones that do, he doesn’t follow up on them or even factor them into his reads.
296, responds to an accusation. Says he is okay with Varsoon or NicCage being lynched for low signal to noise ratio.
363 is good. Gives a minor case on why he thinks a player is scum. Explains it all.
409, hypothesizes about a role claim.
515, weakly pushes a suspect saying that with an extended deadline, maybe they can get a wagon rolling.
569, responds to an accusation explaining why he supported the wagons that he did.
696, says he has Cherry Pie as weak town.
749, responds to an accusation. Agrees with a vote.
873, says that if he doesn’t have anything to add, he won’t add it.
892, says he has a gut feel on Dyslexicon and wants to poke that way. Doesn’t say anything else.
937, after a claim, switches to Scott Brosius.
1072, speculates about the setup.
1156, agrees with an observation and places an FOS.
1177, votes Daemon for scuttling along and getting a free pass.
1182, Gives up and votes himself, says he can’t develop reads at all. Says he has no idea what he was doing.
1124, vote count analysis.

I just don't see much difference at all. He hasn't been any more of an interrogator there than he has been here. Nearly everything he did in that game until very late in the game was to respond to accusations on him. I don't see him going after his suspects strongly either. Which post did he do that in? I am unable to see the evidence that should be a cause for alarm.

_______________

I'll get through Toomai's other games and Nacho's post later.

I feel pretty confident I saw what I think I saw in his posts. I'll review it tomorrow and document what I see as the tonal differences.

[fferyllt]

This is PM format. The threads are locked, so quote doesn't work.

Spoiler: selected quotes from a couple games

Mini 1449

Subject: Mini 1449 - Ordinary Town

I see GCBC as mostly null leaning weak scum. My original vote on it was because I took 19 seriously, which others have said may not be the case and I now somewhat agree with. Also didn't like how the sequence of 37-39-41 contained dubious logic, a sheep vote, and a request/demand for more sheep - the wagon itself was not a bad idea for why I said in 87 but he jumped on it without even waiting for the answer to the question of why.

Actually, now that I look at it, he jumped on it after NicCage asked why him and not me. That makes no sense.

Vote: GoodCopBadCop

I want these things answered:

• 19: Was this a serious (non-RVS) vote, and if so why?
• 39: Why did you only sheepvote NicCage after he asked why he was being singled out?

This is a strong, assertive interrogative post.

Subject: Mini 1449 - Ordinary Town

Understand where you're coming from, Hapa.

You just seem way too eager to play town.

I don't like this post.

I'd like a GCBC flip or a NicCage flip.
Although, I really like Nic, so I guess,
Either a Toomai flip or a hapahauli flip would also be good.

This one bugged me as well since it didn't really explain anything.

ACFAN: Scum.
CHEERPIE: Town.
DAEMON: Scum.
DYSLEXICON: Scum.
GCBC: Scum.
HAPAH: Town.
HPLEAVES: Town.
PONYJAKE: Scum.
NICCAGE: Scum.
QWINTS: Scum.
SCOTT: Scum.
TOOMAI: Town.
ZEFIEND: Scum.

You said "no nulls". Did you squish your reads into the boolean format just to get rid of nulls, or do you actually have no nulls?

In other news, Daemon385 needs to put more effort into making his sentences understandable.

This one as well. It's a perceptive question asked in a challenging way.

But the other questions in this game that I read as fairly forceful earlier don't appear that strong on reread. I think I was picking up a strong defensive tone in his interactions with haphauli and jake from rainbowdash and reading it as offensive.

Mini 1464

Subject: Mini 1464 - Game Over

The fact that neither of the top 2 wagons are willing to vote for each other further suggests they could be a scum team. I am almost willing to switch to md to move the day along.

I don't think that's too strong an argument on day 1 before any wagons have significantly fallen down. If it were later in the day then maybe but I'm not convinced.

@HC: your not doing a good job of convincing anyone that your town.

I don't see a precedent for putting this out. What was it?

Still would like to get an answer to this.

Following up when his question wasn't answered the first time. This is another strong defense sort of interaction.

Subject: Mini 1464 - Game Over

Smudger: If you weren't spoiled before you started, did you believe or disbelieve the Doctor claim as you were reading?

I also feel you somewhat missed how Infinity suddenly decided I was town. To me it stopped being potential distancing there and started being flailing.

I agree that Zhero hasn't done much, but Daemon hasn't either, and his extrahammer and murky posts don't look good on him.

Vote: Daemon385

Here's another question, but the thing that stands out about this post is the wide focus of scumhunting. Strong stances, strongly worded observations. Not just in this post, but in most of them.

Subject: Mini 1464 - Game Over

wat

Your first post in three days is filler? Really? Why do you not post any insight on the discussion since then?

I've skimmed (very lightly skimmed, mind) day one of his newbie games, and iso'd him in those games,

anything in particular you want to share with us to back it up?

No.

So you re-evaluate a read based on meta and decline to give concrete examples as to why, okay.

Aggressive questioning here.

Subject: Mini 1464 - Game Over

I think I am right with that, point being that if Daemon is scum as Toomai suspects, then there was a bus being created by Infinity on Daemon and Toomai is maintaining that bus, if Toomai is scum as 2birds believes. However if Daemon is being set up here and is in fact town then, on that basis, flip the list that Toomai has posted as his reads, then it would point to the fact that HC is his buddy, If Toomai is scum. Therefore it would seem to me, based on the reads from Inifinity's ISO, that Toomai is indeed scum as suspected by 2birds and therefore 2birds read is correct.

You summarize reads that show indecision over a given player, lay out two situations that you believe to be true should that player be scum, and then determine that yes you believe that player to be scum. I don't really follow how this logic is connected.

And this is a strong defensive post with pushback.

Subject: Mini 1464 - Game Over

[...] shpeal[...]

Indeed your spheal was bad. Half of the first paragraph is all empty generalities and appeal to emotion, and paragraphs 3 and 4 were fence-sitting as all get out. Your OMGUS-ish vote doesn't help your cause.

More strong stance.

I don't have time to do the third game tonight. Will work on it sometime tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

I actually think fferyllt is being aggressive in a different way than normal for her town game. It's a less productive aggression? I'm not sure, and it's late, almost 2 AM; I'll come back to this tomorrow (or, well, later today...)

I agree with the read on fferyllt usually being more aggressive. Her willingness to read through Toomai's meta and take a strong stance on it was townish - although I am concerned she never really followed up on her case on you, or asked more questions or probed further. I checked more of her meta and her entire tone and playstyle is so different from this game which has me concerned.

I don't think I am being aggressive at all tbh. My playstyle changes based on how effective I feel I"ve been in recent games and based on the playerlist - and hence the overall pace and mood of the game. I do sometimes have slow-ish games, though. I think in the game you cited, F16, I was called out for not having much content or impact on the game or something. It turned out I was being called out by scum in that one. But, I've heard similar from town players a few times.

PA, in the newbie game of yours that I replaced into, everything that has worked for me replacing into games in the past didn't just not work - it failed so badly that I wound up being mislynched. I don't get mislynched all that often. It was sobering.

[fferyllt]

I thought I acknowledged that in my post last night? That I was seeing strong defense in some posts and interpreting it as offense in my first readthrough.

[fferyllt]

Rach calling me scum and attacking the shit out of me would be something that scumRach is extremely unlikely to do. You calling me scum and attacking the shit out of me would be something different entirely; it's a move I wouldn't expect, but it would be a move that I'd have to analyze and wouldn't be able to write off as "oh she's attacking me she's town".

I don't think I've ever attacked you when you were town. Including the MS games we've played where I was scum. At some point my scum game might grow in that direction, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I have taken a few runs at you when you were scum though.

[fferyllt]

Maybe I'm used to reading fferyllt as a hydra, maybe I'm expecting her replacement game. But she makes a huge case on me Day Two, doesn't vote. Doesn't like Stubbs's mismatched claim, and when Stubbs flips scum, she doesn't seem to actually re-evaluate and reach new conclusions. There's discussion of things she thought about, but none of them actually impact her reads list as presented so far. The aggression I was talking about stems from that--she's saying things that sound like they probe the game state, but it's all past tense.

WRT Stubbs, reading fferyllt's ISO reminded me of his self-hammer. At the risk of jumping into bad territory, it seems more likely that scum would self-hammer with at least one teammate positioned to get town cred. His wagon was Amrun, RachMarie, Toomai, MSG, and me. I think he was doomed by Day Three anyways, because scum couldn't afford to let all the PRs live, and once one flipped his claim would look lousier. So the question is, how did his self-hammer benefit his faction? I'd say ending discussion, but the LnGrrrR NK didn't remove a super-vocal player.

I'd like to hear from Amrun and RachMarie here, given their early position on the scum wagon.

You have a lot to say about me. But, you're not trying to engage me.

[fferyllt]

OK, straight out--how did Stubbs flipping scum change your take on this game?

It put Jason in solid town territory. It also called some of Syr's day 1 play into question. I was more than half-expecting a scum flip after F16's arguments about the ability names. I wanted Syr's reactions to the day 2 arguments made for scum-Stubbs before the day closed.

It also gave me pause about MSG's slot, but I think I've got that sorted to buddying town rather than scum associatives.

[fferyllt]

Same question back. How did his flip affect your take on the game state?

[fferyllt]

Right, and then F16 and I talked about it a page or two later and it clicked. Filches abilities are real role names, and that was what threw me at first.

[fferyllt]

I was more than half-expecting a scum flip after F16's arguments about the ability names.

What are you talking about? You said you didn't buy my argument about ability names and that Stubbs was scum for different reasons.

I point out my concerns:

I don't buy it. All the abilities both in this game and in the previous one are based on the theme.

1) Fred and George's sibling abilities are called "Gred and Forge"
2) Snape's Jailkeeper ability is called "Detention"
3) Peeves's vanilla cop ability is called "Haunting"
4) Lockhart's useless ability is called "Vend"
5) Filch's abilities are called "Follower" "Reporter" and "Voyeur"

Yours doesn't fit in. There is no way I can see Colin's abilities actually being "cop" "doc" and roleblock"

And you reply:

The Filch abilities are actual abilities/roles listed in the mafiascum wiki.

That's not where my discomfort lies. It's more about the power differences in their abilities.

I need to quit staying up late to play mafia. I thought PA made this post when I read it.

F16, I did not really buy into the whole package when you first posted it because the Filch abilities are actual roles, not flavorful synonyms. But, they do fit the flavor much better than Stubbs' claimed abilities did. At the time of this back and forth, I was more convinced that the strong vs weak JOAT abilities pointed to scum-Stubbs, but the ability names argument did sink in.

[fferyllt]

This exchange is from a recently completed game where one of the Amnesiac players had me in his suspect list from day 1 onward because my play (though in my opinion was as obvtown as I know how to be) was not like that game.

Spoiler: Cephrir and me-SoS in Open 527

ffery still isn't doing what I expect of her but she's getting closer.

What do you expect her to do?

This

Fun fact: I was playing from zero to two other games while day 1 of that game was in progress. I usually have between 8-12 active games these days.

I still post tons occasionally but not in every game.

That was my second game on site, and my first game as town on MS. As well as playing very few games at the time, I was also still pacing my games more like the 24-hour game days I'd always played prior to joining MS. I was so burnt out by the end of day 1 that it was almost a relief to be dead that night.

My game has become way slower and way more deliberative since then.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, the degree to which you're defending me is freaking me out.

[fferyllt]

Something else to keep in mind about the amnesiac game, then, is that Nacho had no idea who I was at the time or that we had played offsite games together.

[fferyllt]

Also, re Penguin we have no completed games together.

[fferyllt]

Looking at one of Stubbs' meatier posts:

I'm having a hard time getting reads, but here's an attempt. Only slight scumreads on Jason for refusing to participate, Squilly for empty votes and Rach for having 2 reads. I'm having especially a lot of difficulty reading Amrun, so I just put him at null. LNG I think is just frustrated town.

Town

oriole

Fegelein

Leaning Town

ChannelDelibird

fferyllt

LnGrrrR

Null

Syryana

penguin_alien

Toomai

Amrun

Leaning Scum

JasonWazza

RachMarie

Squilly

Scum

N/A


P-Edit: Okay so Rach might be town too.

Colors are mine, FTR. Green is conf-town to me, blue is my current strong town reads.

I tend to think that he put one buddy in null and one in leaning town. That makes fferyllt and either Nacho or Toomai scum based on my current reads. I think RachMarie and MSG are town. I need to read the spate of posts that made Toomai such a strong town read for people, but if I concur I'd want to lynch from {fferyllt, Nacho}.

Stubbs' ISO is also rather sparse in interactions with both of those slots, but I might be working from confirmation bias.

Here's my big takeaway from Stubbs' flip. You even commented on it in #726, saying that at least I wasn't going after low-hanging fruit.

As of #741, you have Syryana as town for Day One play. And in #681, you said that if Syr was scum with Stubbs you thought he'd have bussed for town cred, not a change from your general town read on him.

Why did you need a Stubbs flip to have Amrun and Fegelin/F16 in your town pile?

I don't understand what you are asking about 681?

[fferyllt]

I'm saying that your read on Syr's play didn't actually change with Stubbs' flip. You solidified your town read on him, that's all.

Amrun and F-16 were already town reads.

(We do have Narnia as a completed game...although we weren't alive at the same time, I did read your part in it in detail)

Mod, I need to go V/LA for 48 hours; time-intensive company is in town. Thanks!

Yeah, my first thoughts were that scum-Syr would probably not have moved his vote after putting it on Stubbs on day 1. I remember Nacho saying something in the Perpetual MYLO game to the effect that you can find scum-Syr via wagon analysis after a few scum-flips because he busses. But, that discounts Stubbs' role value. And it also discounts his lack of presence on day 2.

[fferyllt]

Still, on balance I lean town on what Syr put into the game. Nacho's kinda worrying me, but...Nacho. I haven't been getting strong day 1 town reads of him recently. And this isn't day 1.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, the degree to which you're defending me is freaking me out.

Why would it?

Because you're not doing much else.

[fferyllt]

The only people who have done anything worth anything lately are you, me, and F-16. I'm not interested in talking things out with you at the moment, and instead am waiting for Toomai to finish reads and MSG replacement to arrive and do things. Why else are you paranoid of me?

Lack of enough content to develop a read

is

what makes me paranoid. Always.

[fferyllt]

I am confused by all the math stuffs, what does it mean in terms of scum, null, town reads?

Nacho why so concerned with fery being a tad paranoid? I would think it would be understandable. You are a very good player who knows how to blend in well as scum, as well as being a very solid town player. Hence my comment about how I generally start out putting you in the town pile but take you with a grain of salt. I can understand her paranoia.

At this point though both of you are in my town pile.

I would like to hear from the replacement however.

I also feel pretty good about Jason as town.

Who do you have as scum?

[fferyllt]

Hi JacobSavage. Jason's all but conftown.

What have you come up with?

[fferyllt]

I am going to post a few quick scenarios. More detailed analysis will have to wait till the weekend. I discount Amrun, Jason, Rach, and JacobSavage being scum. I gave extensive reasoning for it and am convinced they are all town. Toomai is a little more difficult to determine. Nacho/ffery/Penguin are almost unreadable. I won't completely discount any of them being scum. That leaves us with 6 scenarios:

1) ffery/Penguin

- This is the least likely. If you are scum together, then mad props to both of you. I discount this pairing.

meh.

2) Nacho/Penguin

- Possible. Nacho sees Penguin in trouble and has her as a top scumread bussing her. Then he kills Jason or me tonight. Amrun helps him mislynch Toomai after which he kills the other of me/Jason. That leaves him with ffery, Jacob, Rach, and Amrun. Jacob mislynch is easy. Perhaps he kills ffery and gets Rach or Amrun to vote each other? Alternatively, he kills Amrun instead of me and gets me (and possibly MSG who was in the slot at that time) to vote ffery to lynch her. Then kills Amrun and gets Rach to vote MSG/Jacob.

I think Nacho could get me lynched pretty easily if he set his mind to it. But he has always NKed me when he been scum in our games.

3) Toomai/Penguin

- Possible. If this is the case, they pretty much already lost. They can't go for any of the obvtown players (me, Amrun, Jason, Rach). Their only choice is to go for the less obviously town but more difficult to lynch players (ffery, Nacho) or to go for the only relatively easy mislynch (MSG/Jacob). They have both certainly expressed suspicion of MSG. I find MSG suspicion unjustified considering his ffery-trajectory only makes sense as town.

I don't think MSG/Jacob will be an easy lynch, at least while I'm alive. I could be wrong about the slot. If so, I'm adamantly wrong and it will take some doing to convince me of it.

4) ffery/Toomai

- Not very likely. ffery sees Toomai getting heat and starts looking for reasons to suspect him? It is somewhat of a stretch. Besides, I can't see ffery-scum with Nacho-town. Nacho is way too sure about his ffery-read so either he is town and right, scum and buddying town-ffery, or scum and protecting his partner. I am definitely using burden of proficiency on Nacho and I think it is justified considering what I learned of his and ffery's background. On the other hand, I can see Nacho fooling ffery but I can't see it happening the other way around.

I doubt that scum-me would see bussing as a good strategy.

5) Nacho/Toomai

- Possible. Nacho wants Penguin lynch but sees Amrun deciding to go for Toomai. He decides that a bus is the best shot at towncred. After all, there are PRs for the mafia to kill and a good player like Nacho reaching 3P LYLO won't raise too many eyebrows in this situation. After the Toomai bus, possibly kill Jason. Use my help to mislynch Penguin, and then kill me. That leaves him with ffery, Amrun, Rach, and MSG/Jacob. Amrun and Rach help him kill MSG, then he kills Amrun/ffery and convinces Rach to vote the other. It is not optimal but it would be his best shot.

Maybe. I haven't seen that Nacho busses as a first-line strategy and it would surprise me if he did that here. Have you seen him do this in other games?

6) Nacho/ffery

- Possible and likely. This is the pairing that I most fear. Their gameplan would be fairly straightforward. Lynch Toomai now. Kill Jason. Mislynch Penguin, then kill me. That leaves them at 5P LYLO with Amrun, MSG/Jacob, and Rach. Getting one of Amrun/Rach to vote MSG slot would be a cakewalk. Although, the paranoia would be high and they would have to sell someone as being in a scumteam with Jacob.

Nacho and I have never been scum together. I don't know how we'd approach a game but I would probably leave strategy to him. What I've seen from playing against him when he's scum is that he thinks a lot like you're thinking from the opposite perspective here. Who is hard to lynch and dangerous. Who is hard to lynch and easier to delude. Who is easier to lynch and how to set them up as the game progresses.

---

The only person who closed off the MSG/Jacob as scum option is ffery. Nacho/Penguin/Toomai are all going for MSG. That and the fact that there is no way that ffery is scum with Nacho town means ffery is a bad choice of lynch.

I don't really follow this. Why am I a bad choice of lynch?

Any of the other 3 (Nacho/Penguin/Toomai) are fair game. I'll get to the three of them this weekend.

Yeah, agree with this.

Your post points up one of my weaknesses as town. Although I put thought into this kind of strategy as scum, as town I focus on read refinement and don't think very far ahead at all in terms of what strategies scum as a team may be working. I should work on this.

[fferyllt]

@ ffery, how sure are you that MSG/Jacob is town?

Pretty damn sure. I'm finding that most players (of the handful at MS who have played with me extensively elsewhere) are pretty suspicious of my play style at MS on first encounter. In some cases, even after they have played a game or two with me here, they're still paranoid about my tendencies toward slow-ish starts and dithering.

[fferyllt]

Based on your Nacho-scum model (surely you have one, don't you?), what would he do as scum if he replaced into a scum slot with Toomai as his buddy and Toomai is under imminent threat of being lynched? Would he bus? Would he try to divert the lynch? If so, who would he try to divert it to?

My nacho-scum model has some holes. Open 527 still stings.

I think Nacho-scum replacing into midgame would be working under constraints he might be able to avoid if he played a game from the start. So, bussing a partner who is under fire isn't out of the question. But, if he and toomai were partners I'd expect him to be making more noise about some of the alternative lynches.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?

He's a strong scumread at this point.

Why?

[fferyllt]

Amrun, why do you think Toomai is the most useful flip right now? What's your take on F-16's breakdown?

Based on F-16's analysis, I tend to agree that fferyllt isn't a good lynch. I'm very interested to hear JacobSavage's thoughts on the game, given my most recent read on MSG.

Do you disagree with Amrun that Toomai is a good choice of lynch? What is your most recent read on MSG? Who do you think is the best choice of lynch right now?

Yeah, I disagree about Toomai. Mostly because while he remains possibly scum, his ISO has almost no useful information, which means even if he did flip scum, there's not much in terms of pinpointing the last scum there.

MSG was getting townier, and if I had to guess I'd say the replace-out was towny. I want to see what JacobSavage does with the slot, as I've played with him a bit. My initial take is that scum would be more likely to come in with a plan of attack instead of kibitzing.

At the moment my lynch preference is Nacho.

This whole post feels like more hedging.

[fferyllt]

I'll just put it out there that i don't like the way JS came in at all.

Of all people he could have addressed, he addressed the person that was pretty much conf-town, and it would take a small skim of the last few pages to check it and find out.

Not to mention on didn't even post on the page before.

JS just gives me scum feels right now.

UNVOTE: Toomai
VOTE: JacobSavage

I don't even

[fferyllt]

Nacho, ffery thoughts on Toomai's deathwish?

I've been trying to free up time to re-meta him to look for fatalism in other games. Fatalism qua fatalism is null, but sometimes I find tonal differences in town vs scum fatalism. I feel like I'm trying to make a scum-Toomai shadow puppet by guessing which differences in this game from known town games could be win-condition motivated.

If I don't get to it in the next hour, I will work on this tomorrow morning.

[fferyllt]

Nacho, ffery thoughts on Toomai's deathwish?

I've been trying to free up time to re-meta him to look for fatalism in other games. Fatalism qua fatalism is null, but sometimes I find tonal differences in town vs scum fatalism. I feel like I'm trying to make a scum-Toomai shadow puppet by guessing which differences in this game from known town games could be win-condition motivated.

If I don't get to it in the next hour, I will work on this tomorrow morning.

I've reread his completed games, and I feel like I must be missing one, because I thought I remembered something more fatalistic sounding than his last posts in the We-Pick game. But, I guess not.

In that game, I feel like he kept arguing and explaining even when his fake claim kinda blew up in his face. This game day really does feel different in that respect.

849 - lost interest in the game, MSG bottomest read but being replaced.

871 - kind of a "go ahead" on his lynch, "distractional detriment to town"

874 - not giving up but won't defend. Holy shit, though, this is almost word for word

something I said

in a recent game. Thing is, my flip would confirm that the information from my night action that I knew would help solve the game was genuine and coming from a (weak) town PR. If the only way to have that information accepted was to be lynched first, I was resigned to it. But I was seriously pissed about it. Pissed at myself for getting into the bind, and pissed at the players who weren't listening because lol scum.

888 - laments lack of reads.

893 - this may be the most town-feeling post of the bunch. It happens sometimes that a person's totally town-motivated actions in a game more or less randomly wind up equally (or more strongly) looking like they could come from scum motivation due to how the game unfolds. I call it "wrong place, wrong time" syndrome.

I skimmed Amrun's case yesterday. Going to review it more closely now.

[fferyllt]

fery why are you so sold on both of them being town? Who do you think is scum then?

Both of who?

PA and Toomai are in my scumpile. And maybe Nacho. I feel strongest about PA.

I reread day 3 of Paradox Prime. I was resigned but spitting nails angry in that game. The similar post I pointed up from that game notwithstanding, I'm not getting anything like that vibe from Toomai.

[fferyllt]

For the usual reasons. To stop discussion cold and to deprive town of a full bandwagon to analyze.

[fferyllt]

What is your theory?

[fferyllt]

VOTE PA

Not the only reason, by any means, but I don't like the WIFOM she's dumping onto the Toomai wagon.

[fferyllt]

I'm finding that most players (of the handful at MS who have played with me extensively elsewhere) are pretty suspicious of my play style at MS on first encounter. In some cases, even after they have played a game or two with me here, they're still paranoid about my tendencies toward slow-ish starts and dithering.

Sure, but why do you think that the type of paranoia MSG had was impossible to fake? How do you think he would interact with you as scum?=

Pure lack of practice as scum would make it pretty hard to fake. He reminded me in one of his posts that he's played one scum game. One. His first mafia game ever. He was confused as fuck in that game because he was recruited by the scum team on his first night in the game.

I think someone with so little scum practice and who hadn't played a game in quite a while would be pretty cautious as scum around me. Not to mention cautious in a new play environment with a significantly different site meta. He seemed pretty comfortable while he was in the game.

VOTE PA

Not the only reason, by any means, but I don't like the WIFOM she's dumping onto the Toomai wagon.

She's not the basilisk, meaning she can be cleared if we lynch the basilisk somewhere else. Toomai is likely scum even if penguin is scum. Why lynch penguin?[/quote]

:/

I'm a reads-based player. Pretty sure you know that. I want to lynch my strongest scum read. Do you really think finding the basilisk should be our priority today?

[fferyllt]

quote fail. I think it's readable.

[fferyllt]

Ok. How do we find the not-basilisk scum? What are we looking for?

[fferyllt]

So, PA can be not-Basilisk only.

JasonWazza is not-scum JOAT

F16 is not-scum fruit vendor

Everyone else potentially be either basilisk-scum or not-basilisk scum.

It seems like this is not actually looking for not-basilisk. You're suggesting to focus on players who could be either scum.

Is this a reasonable description?

[fferyllt]

Okay, I'd like to hear Nacho's and ffery's take on it before we make a final decision. Toomai not voting Penguin who is the only counterwagon is puzzling me as well.

My preliminary thoughts on this are that the level of certainty he exhibited in his scum game is much higher than what he did in his town games. In his town games, there were times when he just felt lost and didn't know what to do. In his scum game, I don't see that tendency. He casts a vote on the L-2 wagon immediately upon replacing in. He seems sure of what he wants and where to place his votes. He has a "scummy" read, a "scummish" read, and a null read in his initial catchup with the rest of them being null town or town to some degree. It certainly looks like someone who is image-conscious in that he needs to provide scumreads, nullreads, and townreads. In this game I see none of it. He doesn't seem to give a crap about who is a "scumread" and who is a "townread." His list contains all nulls and he seems a lot more lost and uninformed.

Nacho, I find your certainty about Toomai flipping scum very troubling. In this game, you were sure that Toomai was scum and were wrong. Yet, here you show not the slightest hesitation in saying that he is scum. If I strongly ead someone as scum when they were town, I think I would be a bit more wary about scumreading them immediately in the next game and wonder how much of it is a playstyle issue and how much they naturally play scummily.

---

I want to hear what ffery thinks as well but I am don't feel good about lynching Toomai based on my meta-read.

I am going to reread through Amrun's case and note his interactions with Stubbs. She makes a lot of good points about his in-game behavior which undermine my meta-read but I'd like to go over each point in detail so we know we are making the right decision.

15 posts and a game where he replaced in during the final 10 pages. I'm not sure how that's going to compare to a game where he's scum from the start. It's definitely different from his other games. Less moving the vote around, but at that point in a game there aren't as many places to move a vote and it looked like town had pretty firm ideas about where they were going next mostly, and as scum the options probably seem more limited than they really are. Interesting to see that he did keep at least the semblance of his processes in that game.

[fferyllt]

I can definitely see a resemblance tween that scum game and here.

What resemblance are you seeing?

[fferyllt]

Rach he has posted that kind of chart in town games. He's also used the same color scheme in his reads list, and the color scheme ties back to his graphed, quantified reactions to posts.

He pretty much has to show that kind of work when he's scum unless he wants to drop it when he's town.

[fferyllt]

15 posts and a game where he replaced in during the final 10 pages. I'm not sure how that's going to compare to a game where he's scum from the start. It's definitely different from his other games. Less moving the vote around, but at that point in a game there aren't as many places to move a vote and it looked like town had pretty firm ideas about where they were going next mostly, and as scum the options probably seem more limited than they really are. Interesting to see that he did keep at least the semblance of his processes in that game.

So, you are still saying Toomai and Penguin are scum?

It's shaken my read up. I'm working through the other reasons for thinking he's scum to see what that case looks like sans meta component.

What are you thinking?

[fferyllt]

Oh god.

I better dump the wifom bucket and start fresh.

[fferyllt]

^^ loled.

Nexus is in the UK I think. Might be an overnight wait.

[fferyllt]

Could scum have a one shot redirector or somethin? I iz confuzed????

What?

Vote: JacobSavage

Why JacobSavage?

[fferyllt]

Could scum have a one shot redirector or somethin? I iz confuzed????

What?

Vote: JacobSavage

Why JacobSavage?

PoE.
Who are your suspects?

:/

Scum within Amrun, Rach, JacobSavage. Hence my question as to your vote. Of those three Amrun is the strongest townread.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, this has pretty much put my concerns about Nacho to rest.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, this has pretty much put my concerns about Nacho to rest.

How is your JS townread looking?

I really don't want to let my msg read go. But, objectively JS looks not so great.

[fferyllt]

You had him as null when you first came in. What changed that he is a strong scumread now?

Nacho, how sure are you about Toomai being scum?

He's a strong scumread at this point.

Why?

I've been rethinking my read on MSG/JacobSavage lately, and I'm feeling a lot better about that slot being town.

What has changed since then? Is it purely PoE based on your investigation of PA?

[fferyllt]

What has changed since then? Is it purely PoE based on your investigation of PA?

Investigation of PA and lynch of Toomai shaked things up to the point where I'm not willing to trust your read of MSG so much anymore. Especially when I've been hit in the face with mantis's paranoia of you (which left her getting extremely concerned about you but not ignoring the rest of the game like MSG). I'm having trouble even getting a suspect #2 from the rubble (Rach-scum would be pretty fucking surprising although she looks the most likely at the moment), so I'm surprised you're having trouble letting go of that townread, honestly.

Mantis has orders of magnitude more mutual game experience with me. She's also way more familiar with MS meta and MS denizens that MSG is. The sum total of MSG's play experience at MS is his short time in this game.

Comparing their play doesn't really make sense IMO.

[fferyllt]

Mantis has orders of magnitude more mutual game experience with me. She's also way more familiar with MS meta and MS denizens that MSG is. The sum total of MSG's play experience at MS is his short time in this game.

Comparing their play doesn't really make sense IMO.

It does to a point. Hence why I'm comparing their play to a point.

That distinction isn't coming across I guess. I'm pretty much reduced to PoE plus JacobSavage's apparently lackadaisical attitude about the game. I haven't found anything to fault in MSG's play.

[fferyllt]

PoE = JacobSavage + ?

Rach. Though the earlier back and forth between Amrun and Jason makes me nervous, mostly about Jason.

[fferyllt]

Actually for that bit of paranoia to be reality based, it would have to be a Nacho/Jason scum team. And I can't wrap my head around that pairing at all.

[fferyllt]

PoE = JacobSavage + ?

Rach. Though the earlier back and forth between Amrun and Jason makes me nervous, mostly about Jason.

Do you think there's a chance of Amrun being scum?

If it weren't for your result on PE, she'd be my strongest town read. Can you see her as scum?

[fferyllt]

Mind taking me back through your case on Amrun-town?

The only thing about her day 1 play that even mildly pinged was the sort of lockstep that she and CDB fell into. Everything else - her tunnel on LnGrrr, her irritation with Jason, her view on Stubbs, make town sense. Her lack of presence. Day 2, her trajectory on Stubbs made absolutely no sense for scum-Amrun.

My read went stale due to lack of activity on her part, but that was site-wide IIRC and she deep sixed that issue with the Stubbs push.

[fferyllt]

I'm saying she's town. I have PA above her in my townpile solely because of the combined cop/joat results ruling her out. Otherwise, in all likelihood I'd have voted PA again today.

[fferyllt]

Jacob, who do you think are the scum team?

[fferyllt]

I'm saying she's town. I have PA above her in my townpile solely because of the combined cop/joat results ruling her out. Otherwise, in all likelihood I'd have voted PA again today.

So you've come to terms with your scum read on me being completely wrong. But it feels off that with one strong read being wrong barring a PA-Nacho scum team you're citing PoE anywhere in your current thought process:

Mantis has orders of magnitude more mutual game experience with me. She's also way more familiar with MS meta and MS denizens that MSG is. The sum total of MSG's play experience at MS is his short time in this game.

Comparing their play doesn't really make sense IMO.

It does to a point. Hence why I'm comparing their play to a point.

That distinction isn't coming across I guess. I'm pretty much reduced to PoE plus JacobSavage's apparently lackadaisical attitude about the game. I haven't found anything to fault in MSG's play.

I'm not sure what JS's motive for basically claiming to have received fruit is as scum. I think it's null, and I'm not sure I'd vote for his lynch today.

Town: Nacho, Jason, Penguin Alien by virtue of claims and investigation results

Prob town: Amrun - I can be pretty arrogant about my reads, and I personally would probably think long and hard about you three in my close to confirmed pile before considering lynching her.

That leaves: Rach, Jacob - Both of those slots have been town to me for a long time. Especially Jacob's slot.

Who are you thinking are scum?

Did Jacob claim he received fruit? I read that comment as a sort of read-between-the-lines of Jason's posts. But, I don't think he'd lie about receiving fruit no matter what his alignment.

[fferyllt]

another PR claim in LYLO? My eyebrows would disappear into my hairline.

Massclaiming today would hopefully decrease the likelihood of a mislynch and decrease the maneuvering room for scum after today.

[fferyllt]

Which is why this:

PA how can you be so sure that all our PRs are out?

Let us not set anything in stone ok?

Bad enough we have so many already claimed.


Meanwhile

a vote


VOTE: JacobSavage

feel pretty good about this one being scum...

makes me leery. I'd expect RachMarie to be thinking about this as town.

When I saw this post, I kinda shook my head, but thought it could be a mafia theory point that we just disagree on. In general, I probably support mass claim in the late-ish midgame more often than not.

hmm.

[fferyllt]

Heh.

I think this is autowin, then.

[fferyllt]

Should we just go ahead and finish claims?

[fferyllt]

I'm Mrs Norris. VT.

[fferyllt]

Big fat spiders are always so misunderstood only Hagrid "gets me"...

hah! I just remembered. Was it you who said something about more nonhuman characters? I laughed because Mrs Norris.

[fferyllt]

Intent to hammer

I'll be afk for an hour or so and I'm not in a huge hurry after that. What else do we need to accomplish today? I think everyone but Jacob has claimed.

[fferyllt]

Can't help you with that.

[fferyllt]

Agree. If we have another PR in this game I will need to do some major reassessment.

[fferyllt]

I guess I want to talk about this a little longer, but I think I'm alone in that.

[fferyllt]

I guess I want to talk about this a little longer, but I think I'm alone in that.

You said you liked your town-Amrun read, IIRC. To the point where you'd put her as town above me, Nacho, and JW. Is there any combination of scum in that group of three that makes sense, given the claims?

That leaves you, JS, and RachMarie. What's your take on the tracker claim? Does it fit with one side or the other to you?

The three PR claims are cross validated. It's freaking me out a little balance-wise, though.

We know the scum team had a JOAT. I assume they have enough to counterbalance the town roles, including the potential for there to have been a treestump.

[fferyllt]

And I have no choice but to doubt my Amrun read now, unless one of the claimed PRs is scum.

[fferyllt]

Heh.

I think this is autowin, then.

The three PR claims are cross validated. It's freaking me out a little balance-wise, though.

And I have no choice but to doubt my Amrun read now, unless one of the claimed PRs is scum.

What on earth is this line of thought?

The sentiments in the first quote could be premature.

Otherwise I think it's pretty obvious.

Town: JasonWazza, Nacho, Rach, PA - by virtue of the PR claims and results.

Scum: JacobSavage and Amrun (and me, from your point of view)

Unless there is a problem with the first group.

What does this do you

your

Amrun read, and how comfortable are you with the town group?

[fferyllt]

Ok. so it comes down to Amrun or me then. And from your perspective we're on autowin?

[fferyllt]

Good.

VOTE: JacobSavage

[fferyllt]

Hi Lucky. Are you caught up?

[fferyllt]

It's not Amrun unless she is a ninja. I used my reporter last night on her and she was home so she wasn't out killing.

Jason said he used all his shots.

[fferyllt]

He said he used it on Night 1. On CDB IIRC.

[fferyllt]

and I just told you he was lying. Obviously I can't ask him what his strategy was but it got us here, and cleared one of the only remaining two possible scum. Since you are the other, I can understand how that upsets you.

If we are an autowin, I'm reluctantly ok with being mislynched today. If.

[fferyllt]

ffery, what are your prospects of winning this lylo, do you think? I'm thinking you're looking for a bunch of cracks, can't really find them... is that why you've reverted into your helpful "say things that aren't lies but don't actually say anything about the elephant in the room" scum meta?

I'm trying to think if you've ever misread me this badly especially at this stage of a game.

[fferyllt]

Ah, in that case he was lying. Allow me to clarify because I didn't really read his iso. I am a reporter follower and voyeur, the latter two were used on P_A. When Jason voyeured it got that she was investigated, when he followed he got nothing. He never used the reporter, so I still had it replacing in. He probably lied to save his skin as scum would think he was a VT. Paid off didn't it?

what the fuck, jason.

this is so outlandish that i feel as if lucky is not lying. jesus.


also, it's possible there's one scum left, just more likely it's two.

But to be honest, I still feel like anyone that looks at me and stubbs interaction day 1 and seriously things I'm still scum is lulz. I may allow it simply due to PoE, but I'll laugh so hard if I'm lynched today.


But it seriously begs the question why jason/lucky is still alive. lucky's entrance makes me feel even more conflicted - as it is really not-scum-oriented play. So probably my lingering doubts there are wrong. I dont' see the scum motivation for admitting to lying in order to try and CLEAR someone who could reasonably be a lynch today, especially as I've claimed Draco Malfoy VT.

This. If he's scum then unless you're scum there was no reason to try to get me lynched over you.

[fferyllt]

VOTE: fferyllt

[fferyllt]

Good work Nacho!

I am really surprised we won this game. Day 1, I thought it was going to be a town was going to have a romp.

[fferyllt]

Thanks for the game Nexus! The character choices were awesome, especially the Ford Anglia!

[fferyllt]

F16, you and CDB both did a great job of organizing town and making life a lot more difficult for scum. On day 3, I really regretted lthat we hadn't killed you on N2, though potentially having you in the game as a tree stump would probably have sunk our chances completely.

PA was cleared by dint of Jason's investigation and my flip. It would have taken a huge error on the other town player's part for her to be lynched at lylo. And Amrun was less likely to have the time to sort Nacho.. Those were two factors that went into killing PA instead of Amrun. Rach's late tracker claim really threw a wrench into the works, as did Lucky's surprise final investigation. Those two events completely changed the scum gameplan.

[fferyllt]

I should say "all but cleared"

[fferyllt]

Earlier in the game, we hoped for success in a 5-2 lylo, but by PoE I was already all but confirmed scum by day 5. With lucky's investigation on night 4 it went solid.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I was p much a sitting duck given the JOAT and Tracker on town's side, and losing our own JOAT on day 2. While alive, I had to make the NKs. I'm amazed I got through 4 nights without being investigated by a town PR.

[fferyllt]

Yep, you nailed it. gj!

Hope you'll sign up for another game sometime, MSG.

[fferyllt]

Rach, believe it or not, Newbie 1436 was longer than the borkgame. Buzzword Bingo was almost as long as the borkgame and it ended on day 2 in about 3-4 pages.

At least he didn't meta Xenoblade!