Mini 1496: The Cash Cabd (Game Over)

[ProHawk]

Hello Nati and Ffery/SoS.

I will be reading and catching up. You might see some interesting cases/thoughts come from me once I get there. Actually since this is the only game I am currently alive in its probably a guarantee

[ProHawk]

/mid-read rant/

Dan... Don't ever post an ISO/read like your #152... ever. I realize that you put a lot of work into adding all of the links, but I dont have the time to click all of your links to understand the context of your analysis. Thank you.

[ProHawk]

It will be at the end. That just couldn't wait.

[ProHawk]

Initial Impression is - Flips that Need to Happen:

Rebel - His assurance of Dan being scum was way over the top, unnecessarily and from a point I don't really understand or see.
Brian - Not liking his unfulfilled promises and his opening play was real bad.

There is a lot more detail that I need to articulate on these two, but don't have the energy to do so tonight.

VOTE: RebelWithoutaPulse

[ProHawk]

mmm... re-reading Rebels attacks on Dan, I might be wrong about him being scum.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Brian

Rail, which reads specifically would you like? All of them?

[ProHawk]

I generally don't like to make a comprehensive read-post, mostly to keep some cards close to my chest.

[ProHawk]

I will say that I am not liking NotScience for scum. I have picked him out as scum before, and this isn't anything close to that. Also, he has admitted to changing his normal playstyle, which would be a risky move for someone who has drawn scum to up-and-change.

[ProHawk]

Taking a look and analyzing Brian's ISO:

His agreeable stance has already been touched on. What I didn't understand was... why vote HP when you originally liked his post, was persuaded by one post to change your mind about said post,

and then

go do the research to see if it was legit? Something seems backward here. And then come back to try and attack/discredit him using that research (which would explain the scum-motivation in reading the game).

Side note, he makes it a point that everyone knows he is working hard on looking into HP.

I'll read through that link later.

As per the Humble Poirot link, I'm still reading it. I've read up to page 23. Although, if there's anything I don't like at this point,

it's the massive wall-to-wall posting

. Not necessarily the hydra itself.

Ugh! More reading to do...

And yes, I actually finished reading

that painful wall-to-wall posting you call a game

on Tuesday night.

I read

that monstrosity (although I'm sure it's nothing compared to other games)

.

It gave me a headache

. I want to discuss it. Also, HP has pretty much confirmed his stance against hydras. I want to know if it is warranted or if he's just directing the attention towards them.

I don't see town motivation in bringing this to the forefront of many posts, especially #76 which was unsolicited. Its over the top.

Taking a look at the Dan wagon/trajectory:

#214 - Dan is a top 4 town-read.
Rail attacks Dan for a while. Rebel votes Dan. Rail votes Dan.
#320 - Dan is now a "biased" null-read.
Artemis and SoS mention not liking Dan's vote on Brian.
#390 - Brian votes Dan. "hung up on rather innocuous details".

Brian was the third on the wagon, while having the negativity from Artemis and SoS to back up his vote. His trajectory was very cautious until others were on board. His vote and push was safe. Scum-Safe.

[ProHawk]

Why isn't Brian a lynch candidate?

I don't like NS, he feels town to me and the Titus vs NS vendetta feels like town v town.

I haven't really done much at looking into you Nati, but nothing Saki did screamed scum to me, and nothing is standing out as scum from the things you have posted. Mario is being replaced and will be re-evaluated later in the day.

P-EDIT: Its a lot safer for scum to play how you are playing (being agreeable, pushing easy lynches (ones with support behind them), than how Dan was playing. But your question is a bit strange because Dan flipped town, so obviously what he did was not scum-motivated?

[ProHawk]

I don't get your point.

[ProHawk]

Already answered Artemis.

[ProHawk]

Art, why do you think Brian is town?

[ProHawk]

votes can be used to pressure..

Do elaborate.

[ProHawk]

i was saying to Prohawk, in response to his question on why Brian is town to me. is that i have liked all of Brian's posts. i still think Brian is town. and i'm partially sus of PH for pushing a wagon/lynch vote on him.

Do you realize how incredibly ironic this statement is considering Brian pushed a lynch on

confirmed town

, and you aren't the least bit suspicious of him?

[ProHawk]

Whoops, that quote screwed up badly. Artemis said the quote, not Nati.

[ProHawk]

Brian, what are you doing?

[ProHawk]

ironic is the wrong word >.>

You're right... hypocritical is the better term.

prohawk... you know that a bunch of people also pushed a wagon, on a *confirmed town* too, right?

Yeah... so tell me about how you feel regarding Rebel and Rail Tracer. See what I don't get is you say --->

prohawk - gut. :/ that's all i really have. i have liked all his posts.
and so i end up getting suspicious of you, for pushing a wagon on him.

Am I reading this right? You are suspicious of me for pushing a wagon on someone who you believe is town, but just might be scum? And then your top three scum-spects are:

NS, Cephir and Prohawk

All of whom

didn't

push a confirmed town D1. So you think pushing a wagon against someone who you believe to be town but just might be scum is scummy, but don't really care much about anyone who actually, verifiably did push a wagon against town?

The only thing I can think of is you are making up your read on me, because its pretty apparent you don't actually think its a scum-tell to push a lynch on someone who is town. I actually hadn't been reading you as all that scummy, more just misguided up until this point, help me understand where I am wrong in my current analysis Artemis.

[ProHawk]

prohawk, you also know that brian is a newish player, ,right?

I don't get your point.

You also never clarified your point here, and I would now like you to do so.

If Prohawk is town this might freak him the fuck out but I'll say it anyway.

If Rebel agrees with you about Nati I'll probably go along.

I actually don't understand what you are referencing here, the other part that bugs me is the posturing you are setting up when I don't flip out because of it (which I am not).

Prohawk, what's your opinion on SoS this game?

Pretty much on the fence. I probably wouldn't support a lynch on them today though. Somethings I have liked from them, somethings I haven't.

Decently strong town reads lie in Rail Tracer and HP (by proxy therefore Cephrir, although the read comes from his predecessor and not necessarily him)

[ProHawk]

Forgot NS in the decently strong town reads pile too.

[ProHawk]

@ProHawk: I'm sick of defending that post. It was on page 1, and even 38 pages into the game, I find myself having to deal with it again. DB was misrepresenting me with it. I thought he could have been scum for it. I was wrong. I can't be wrong?

So here is the thing Brian... your trajectory doesn't fit your story. If you honestly thought he was scum for "mis-repping you", why didn't you vote him when he first did it in... 152 to which you commented in 156? In fact after you commented on the mis-representation you still put him in your top 4 town pile in post 214...

I guess I can understand that he didn't vote you until #328, which could have been the straw that broke the camels back, however, again you waited to vote him until #390. Yes, that was your next post in the thread, but a quick search tells me that you were on-site and making a substantial number of posts in the time between post #328 and #390. My hypothesis being that you waited for more support for the wagon before wanting to push it which fits the bill of cautious scum quite nicely.

P-EDIT: NS, let me actually read your case to which I have admittedly skipped due to me writing you both off a town.

[ProHawk]

I'm referencing the Xenologue game and my-Morph's following Oil Tycoon's votes. I thought our sheeping the Sakura vote in particular struck you as scummy.

I'm kinda waiting for some indication in a game one of these days that you have figured out how my motivations translate into behaviors. If this is the game where I see that, then yay.

Nope. Difference being you are actually using your head this game at least from what I have seen. Are you saying you will vote Nati solely based on the word of RT? If you were playing to your scum Xenologue you would already have voted for Nati while stroking RT's ego behind the scenes.

And you play in so many different hydras, I actually don't think I have played in a game with just you, so despite you being overly active in your hydras it still would/should have some effect on your behaviors/actions.

Hawk, you should join our righteous cause and lynch titus-scum.

NS, you need to take a chill-pill, step away for a second and come back to your case for Titus. The majority of your case is reveled in

personality-tells

. I am not really seeing all of the fluff you keep bringing up. The only thing I could maybe see is the hammer on Dan, but I can tell you that 9/10 my play as scum is to avoid hammering. Its just such a high-profile spot, even if you hammer scum for that matter. So for me, personally I don't even see Titus as scum for it.

[ProHawk]

Hell yes.

Vote: Nastyrasha

Now this. This reminds me of Xeno.

Behind the Scenes=QT

[ProHawk]

Lemme take a closer look at Nati and I will get back to you.

Lets start hearing counter-arguments to what I have presented.

[ProHawk]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Nati

There is a huge disparity with his reads and I am getting a feeling that it is due to Nati-scum trying to setup his end-game. I will run through the evidence when I get a bit more time to put it together well.

@NS -

"Sitting through D1 with only 2.5 non-null reads until DAYS before the deadline where she tries to setup today's lynch on me" - This is a playstyle. I can see it coming from town. Allow me to elaborate, you are upset that you are apparently her only strong scum-read. A few other players IIRC have also had expressed difficulty at getting solid reads in this game, shouldn't you then also be going after them?

"Fluffing incessantly while being adamant she's not(scum trying to look busy)". This is subjective, I didn't feel like her posts were particularly fluffy, again its due to playstyle.

"Contradicting herself by saying she's scumhunting and not fluffing and then admitting to coasting D2 in an attempt to appease.(scum trying not to let their lies blow up in their face)" - She never admitted to coasting. I think you just read that post you quoted incorrectly.

@Artemis -

Really? You make a whole dozen string of posts and completely ignore/toss aside my posts and SPECIFIC questions directed toward you?

[ProHawk]

hm. brian could be scum, actually. but deal with that later.

Just curious, ProHawk, how does me lynching notscience set up my endgame? I mean, of all the sorts of people I'd want to kill, notscience is really low on the list.

Real quick, (I am almost done with my analysis of your reads). Its not only your sole-true scum read, but your evolution of reads. I will make a case subsequently. And really? If you wanted to kill anyone you would do it at night, not during the day. The people you kill during the day are the ones you feel are easy to get lynched not the most town-players that are more of a threat. Dumb argument.

[ProHawk]

Nati's Reads - In Evolution (Chronogically):

Initial - SoS obvtown. Rebel likely town. HP townier than SoS. BrianSkye a good newbie player (

note no alignment indication here

). NS, not a successful town-read but has points in his favor as town. RT is null (

he can't remember RT's posts.

) No scum-reads.

Town: SOS, Rail Tracer, Humble Peirot, Bryan Skye. (

Note missing Rebel and now Bryan gets town-status

). Of note, Dan gets his vote to which he later defends and rationalizes.

Really Strong town read: Titus

End of D1 Reads:
Not lynching (super-duper town?) - SoS, Rail Tracer
Could be lynched with a strong convincing case (town pile?) - Rebel, Dessew, Titus, Brian Skies, Artemis Kitty
Needs to post more (null?) - Mario, Mogamma, HP-slot
Kill - Notscience

(

Note: Notscience hasn't been the focus of any of his D1 play, and ends in the kill pile. His townier-than SoS is now in the third tier of his reads. He would be willing to lynch a once really strong town read - Titus - with a strong convincing case

)

Reads Adjustments (D2): + town for NotScience and down a tier? for Brian for Night Kill Analysis.

VCA Scum: Brian, Rail Tracer, and Titus (

note: he sounds like he doesn't believe that scum would fall into this category. Also note, all of his choices are past town-reads of his, specifically RT who was in the not lynching/super town category which is interesting considering Rebel (a lesser town read) and Dessew (also a lesser town read) were both on the wagon.

)

RT is really really townie.

Brian Skies - Town Leaning

Scum: Notscience, Mario, kind of Brian Skies ; Town: SoS, RT, kitty, Rebel, Cephrir (note: Titus a past town-read is dropping despite the comment made earlier by Nati that if NS were scum, then Titus is town)

Hawk: a mild town read.

Scum: NS, Brian, Mario

Hawk: Could be Scum

Nati - The biggest issue I have, and the reason why I say it looks like you are setting up your end-game is the way your reads flip and flop all over the place with no appearance of hunting. I realize that you could be processing/reading the game more like an outsider looking in (processing reads based on what is going on in the thread) without being transparent, but therein lies the issue: transparency. It has a scum-feel in that with the way you have been moving reads flippantly, you would effectively be able to push a scum-read on just about anyone you want. Rail Tracer is probably the biggest read that has been all over the map, followed by Rebel whom you say has been moving in and out of your town-bloc but I haven't seen any indication of such, nor any reasoning. I also felt it in the way you categorized my slot first as town-leaning and then as potential scum. The Brian Skies read is also odd to me considering you didn't join to help me push him at all, despite him being in your scum-pile. Other oddities can be found in the note section of the evolution.

On an unrelated note:

Is anyone else bugged by the lack of another wagon? Everyone seems to be on a different page and not trying to convince people to follow them (which I admittedly am guilty of myself) and it's bugging the shit out of me.

This post pings me. Like, it has an illusory valid basis("Why is there no counterwagon"), but when you read into the implications, it sounds to me like he has something to gain from having DB lynched.

In any case, if you want my specific reads at the time, I was thinking notscience/DB/Mario. In that situation, notscience I think is completely willing to bus

These two thoughts don't make sense. You thought NS and DB were scum together? But you also thought NS had something to gain from getting DB lynched? Bus cred without being on the lynch wagon?

P-EDIT: No, I am really glad you are coming around to the idea... RT, it was just like a 180 degree shift.

[ProHawk]

^
If PH isn't town, then I don't know what is.

This doesn't make me want to lynch you any less...

[ProHawk]

VOTE: Brian

Finally we get to lynch this slot today!

RT, I actually think Artemis may have a chance of being scum in your PoE list of people off the Dan wagon. Her ignoring me the last game day was really bad.

[ProHawk]

I protected Rail Tracer last night after ffery urged me to

Why not do it on your own accord? You stated that you protected Rail Tracer every-single night since N1, why did you need ffery's prodding to get you to protect him again?

[ProHawk]

With AK and NS as unbelievably strong townreads and those two as pretty much confirmed town

You need to explain AK from start to finish.

[ProHawk]

VT.

Popcorn ArtemisKitty.

[ProHawk]

I was trying to figure out the logic of popcorning to kittens though

Let me know when you get this sorted out.

[ProHawk]

AK was kitty. I like Kitty

Why?

[ProHawk]

encryptor is possible if there was a shred of truth to nati's final post. but i'm thinking that was mostly wifom

Knowing Cabd, encryptor is highly likely, and I am willing to bet the wifom from Nati's post is the part about his buddy not posting in the day-chat (pointing to Mario/Beast)

Re: Artemis, you need to look at her wagon hop from D1. She didn't want to be on the Dan lynch for a reason.

[ProHawk]

I like AK because I am generally agreeing with everything AK has done so far. Someone asked me that.

Tell me what AK has done so far. And don't take too long.

[ProHawk]

at the start of D2, and tell me how likely you think that is to come from scum buddies (especially if you think encryptor is a very real possibility).

Quickly read through an Art + Nati joint-ISO and am not really seeing what you seem to be... which posts do you think could have been better suited for day-chat instead of an in-thread conversation?

[ProHawk]

Vote: Prohawk

Because I totally threw this game by hard-bussing my team all in a row amirite? Was this vote placed by Nacho-perchance?

[ProHawk]

AK's reads have been spot on so far.

[ProHawk]

Probably not, no. What do you think of Titus?

Not reading. Not thinking. Not paying attention. I may have a bit of bias in that I am pretty confident not all three scum were on the D1 mis-lynch wagon... but I don't see scum in Titus despite the horrific logic put forth this game from her.

What are your thoughts on the D1 wagon in terms of where the scum-votes landed?

Still not sure why this isn't being considered...

VOTE: ArtemisKitty

[ProHawk]

Vote: notscience

Prohawk, I don't think they landed on the wagon either. Why are you voting AK?

General absence last game day and this game day is troubling to me topped off with trying to get me lynched on a false premise. NS isn't a terrible lynch and would be my second choice.

[ProHawk]

I don't believe in the "scumbuddy who never posted in daytalk" part, but I do believe the daytalk part itself, though.
It would be bit too odd topic to use for wifoming. (It's not like presence of daytalk change a lot)

Daytalk changes a lot. For instance, daytalk gives credence to my theory that the end of yesterday was a massive bus to cut short the day.

VOTE: notscience

You literally can't make this stuff up. What game are you reading?

[ProHawk]

That was a fun game. Thanks Cabd!

[ProHawk]

Tbh I really hoped that ns was town because I liked his new(?) Playstyle.

Yeah... have to agree with you here.