A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?

[Alfred Borden]

Are you watching closely?

Vote: Stupendous Man

With this hydra, you're going to be getting Llamarble posting at weird hours while I stick mostly to the morning/afternoon.

Also, we won't be signing our posts as we feel our styles are distinctive enough that you should be able to tell who is who.

Also also, I tried trolling 'marble about our alignment in this game but it failed miserably =/

[Alfred Borden]

I liked Hurricane Hodor better :/

(You should watch the movie. You'll change your mind, promise.)

Also, would you judge me if I said kanye made me swoon?

Unvote, vote: PrideAndJoy

---

@Benmage:

Hope all goes well with your family, man.

[Alfred Borden]

Are you just voting for PnJ because Kanye is?

No.

[Alfred Borden]

Mind explaining the vote then?

*rolls magic 8 ball*

"Ask again later."

[Alfred Borden]

Jesus fucking christ, I come back from dinner and doing some work and this thread's already too fast too furious for me. I'll do my best to respond to stuff but I'm kind of occupied with about a billion things right now, so if there's something I missed, please let me know ASAP.

I cannot tell the difference between posters in virtually any hydra because I am not very observant. As such, I would like to request that everyone sign.

Nope, looks like you're just going to have to Deal With It.

Empire, you should probably sheep me.

Nah, actually I think that vote's rather boring. I'm assuming CDB's the one who posted the first few posts and they all seem pretty standard for him.

Empire - I'm leaning town on tierce, yes? Also I've done one shot.

Yeah, I think Tierce is town too at least from her initial posting.

---

@Garruk:

I *think* I got why kanye was voting for PAJ but I mostly saw #9 as null as I think chesskid would fuck around like that regardless of alignment. But I found #29's continuation of the joke fake/forced and felt more like an attempt to fit in with the early game fuckery that was going on. And I completely disagree with #93 -- that wagon got us out of RVS incredibly quickly and right into serious discussion despite some remnants of early game circlejerking still peering through *glares at Tammy and her alcohol issues* and it's something that has me leaning town on kanye.

Catching up now, a lot of chesskid's posts in the vein of "this usually foolproof scumhunting method isn't working for me this game and I don't know why" read really genuine to me and I think he'd be more likely to bullshit something rather than just straight up admit he's struggling with reads in the game.

Unvote

I've got a few townreads already (Tierce, Tammy, kanye, PAJ) but no real leads as far as scumreads go. I should have more time to fully dig into the game since I'm free all day tomorrow. I'm talking to 'marble right now and he says the game's still in "loading" mode for him so hopefully we'll have some consolidated reads up as soon as he has a chance to fully dig into the thread.

[Alfred Borden]

A ball bounces across the stage

Yay I didn't want to already disagree about who we were voting!

VOTE: Elleheathen

[Alfred Borden]

Drive-by post for right now. I was rereading some stuff out of procrastination and this caught my eye:

I thought Shadoweh was town but 149 is not so good.

Can you walk me through the progression of this read? What did you like about Shadoweh before and what specifically about 149 did you dislike?

[Alfred Borden]

Elle was never scum because of "Wight." She's still a good vote.
Quadz is making votes he believes we'll believe he believes instead of votes he believes though.
VOTE: Quadz

Kanye was super useless / frustrating as scum in Revolution Mafia. He's been pretty solid so far here.

This game already has good Feng Shui.

[Alfred Borden]

damnit alfred too soon

Gomen, kanye-kun =/

I just couldn't keep that vote up in good conscience after reading his stuff.

But I also don't think much of the quadz wagon. However, he's easy to read, yeah? Empire? I mean I know you guys are voting there, but he doesn't seem off the wall to me?

I remember not too long after #194, Llamarble pointed it out to me and we both had the same kneejerk "WOW LOOK AT THE OBVSCUM" reaction. I'll do my best to sum up our AIM convo about quadz but it basically ended up resulting in this:
-> Llamarble found the post scummy because something either is a slip or it isn't; he found the "this looks like a slip" comment to be scummy because scum want to go after things that :look like: slips in order to bolster the credibility of their votes and make them appear more believable.
-> I hate to use the "o" word here, but personally, I found his vote opportunistic given the above "slip" logic. Scum tend to care a lot more about making sure their actions appear justified in the eyes of everyone at large so I feel like he shoved the slip logic in there for that reason.
-> Shadoweh already pointed it out, but I really dislike his unvote in #213. Seems more like a backpedal after he began drawing some heat for it rather than it being a genuine "my bad". #227 doesn't make sense either since there's plenty of scum motivation in unvoting once something like 4 people react to the vote negatively.

As far as elleheathen goes, both of us really disliked #110 -- lots of stuff had happened between that post and her first one, so her coming returning to the thread again only to comment on a fairly throwaway post by PB was fairly shitty. Llamarble also thought her responses to the wagon felt like scum responses ("huh what I do" -> "that's not worth voting me for", which I agree because it implies that the conclusion, e.g. that she herself is scum, is true). However, #282 seemed townish to me and I want to give your game a good once over since I didn't really follow it while it was ongoing (and I definitely want to get 'marble's second opinion as well). The "Wight" discussion went way over my head because I know almost nothing about the flavor and it completely slipped my mind to ask Llamarble what that was all about >_>

I had hoped Empire would draw scum for my long-delayed revenge.

Oh you have absolutely no idea how much I was dreading opening that PM box and I think the sheer force of my sigh of relief when I saw I was town caused extensive property damage to my immediate area. Plus, you know I wouldn't be posting as scum as I'd have already drowned in an ocean of my own tears so I'm pretty obvtown already.

Saw what you were doing - and appreciated it, it gave you townpoints - but disagreed that it was worth a vote (and, unlike Cephrir, we had more posts to consider by that point). Cephrir came in, had to have seen that you were already creating an issue and, considering that town's goal early on is to do as much as possible to facilitate reads rather than prolong randomness, should have reacted to your vote but chose not to.

If you saw the PAJ wagon as a good thing, what do you think about chesskid's responses to the wagon?

---

@Cephrir:

What was the comment directed at Shadoweh in #77 ("Keep this up") for?
Also, I don't think Shadoweh is doing what you think she is doing but I'll talk about that later.

---

People who will be undergoing the Intense Meta Examination in the next few days:

quadz (at Tierce's request)
elleheathen (because Tammy vouches for her scum game and I want to take a look at it myself)
Amrun (I agree that her early catch-up seemed like her pointing out "things-that-look-bad-but-aren't-really" but I vaguely remember her doing stuff like this pretty frequently as town in game's of hers I've followed and I remember her being a lot more sideline-y in Balto Meet as scum, not as cocky/aggressive as she appears here)

[Alfred Borden]

What did you think about him making a meta reference concerning me and the difference in behavior in his experience?

Also, do you have a read on shadoweh yet?

The meta reference thing didn't really resonate with me here because it's pretty easy for an experienced player to fake and there wasn't a whole lot of meat to it.

As far as Shadoweh goes, not really. Too early for it and I frankly don't trust my ability to read her.

[Alfred Borden]

Almost done with this letter I've been writing! I'll move on to the consolidated reads list/meta stuff tonight.

I'm only a Miller insomuch as I show up as guilty

(or the equivalent used for this game)

in regular cop investigations.

Wait, what? Wouldn't your role PM already tell you how you'd show up to cop investigations?

---

@

Nacho:

I expected way more blazing glory from your catch up and I feel very unfulfilled =/ Please please please towninate faster.
Also, what do you think of Andy and his PR in particular? (I have meta markers for him but it's tough for me to find stuff while looking through it personally.)

@Goat and Cephrir:

You guys missed stuff in my #295 that I really want answers to. Please answer them.

---

I talked to 'marble about an hour or ago about quadz and his response to me and he really liked it, saying that the whole "you're right, that's what I did and I'm town" reaction is almost always a good response. I vaguely remember talking to Tierce about his meta a while back when we were doing Sherlock and I remember her telling me that quadz really dislikes being scum and feels uncomfortable/awkward in his play, really unlike the snippy/aggressive/confident response he gave here (correct me if I'm wrong, Tierce, but I don't think I am -- still really want to do the meta report though to make sure).

Amrun's a hot topic that's come up too and 'marble's told me he has a hard time differentiating between townAmrun and scumAmrun. There's a few meta markers he told me to watch out for when I do my meta scouting but I'm gonna keep that close to my chest for now.

Unvote, vote: ooba

[Alfred Borden]

@Tammy- Care to elaborate on that vote?

I wish people would townread me for being snippy.

Hmm... nope.

I'm waiting in line at a Chipotle but I just want to say, holy fucking shit, my kingdom for a doublevote right now.

[Alfred Borden]

I'm floating on spraypaint fumes and our CEO unintentionally signed us up to become men (and women) who stare at goats!

Ooba / SM seem like good places to be.

Elle's scumbagularity has faded.

[Alfred Borden]

So as soon as someone says "I'm town" you believe them?

If they say it enough times then yup.

Shadoweh is of the 'lots of data required' persuasion. She looks good so far though.

[Alfred Borden]

Time for some Centrifuging!

Town:
Me!
Tammy
P&J
Tierce
Zdenek

Shadoweh
Garruk
Goat on a Raft
Thor
Quadz
Elle
Kanye

Nautilius
Mollie
Benmage
Syrana
Messiah
Natirasha

Amrun
Peacebringer
Cephrir
Andrius

SM
Ooba

24 people is a lot >_>
My a cappella group sang Love Story but we included a little bit of You Belong With Me too.

[Alfred Borden]

Zdenek

Why?

Hey you picked one where the answer wasn't "I dunno"
He's posting like he believes he has solid ground to stand on.
Also he's got the good kind of ADD and shows signs of gamesolving.

[Alfred Borden]

Unfuckingbelievable, site goes down in the middle of my catching up in this game.

I'm not through yet with all of the pages. I'll try to get to them tomorrow morning before I have to head out to my girlfriend's ceremony thing. Llamarble told me he'll have more free time then so you'll hear more from him then.

[Alfred Borden]

VOTE: Alfred Borden

Wrong!

[Alfred Borden]

Premature townreads from scum who figure so and so will be obvtown eventually are a thing.

Ooba your step Ks have been about right for scum.

The sleep of a thousand waking princesses awaits. My primary bed is now a real bed for the first time in years >_>

[Alfred Borden]

Alright, finishing the catching up before I have to head out 'til Sunday. I'll be splitting this up over multiple posts addressing different people (otherwise this thing will get too unwieldy) and there's a chance I might've missed something so if that's the case then let me know.

I expect some reasons from you whenever you get the chance instead of casting baseless suspicion.

As much as I love to troll people who ask for reasons/cases on themselves, I'll make an exception just for you because I'm a nice guy:
- #370 very quickly after Tammy had silent voted you. This means that you've been following along but not really saying a whole lot. I want to know why that is.
- You also comment only on a pretty meaningless line from Shadoweh in that same post and nothing else that shoots down her assertion of townieness. Again, I want to know why that is and what your thoughts on the game are.

What's this about - why am I scum?

Most of my problems with you stem from #331, for a couple of reasons (there's probably nothing new here but it's worth talking about):
- The Sorceress Edea avatar has already brought it up but it seemed really suspicious to me at the time that you would bring up one of your strongest townread's alleged contradictions like that, especially at a time when she was drawing a lot of suspicion. It seemed to me like you were softly encouraging the votes on her while distancing yourself from the wagon by calling her town.
- Elleheathen brought this up earlier too but: I get from your #456 that you're trying to "solve the puzzle" which is fine but I still have an issue with the manner in which #331 was presented. If you have a problem with something your townread is saying, why not just ask her about it instead of presenting a series of quotes like that? (Yeah she would have replied regardless but I still don't understand the point of that presentation).
You've already explained your Shadoweh read somewhat but I took a look at the latest VC and want to know why you're voting kanye.

AlfredBorden, I'd like to hear why you think Zdenek is town. I agree with you reads on P&J and Tammy and am indifferent on Tierce, but on Zdenek, we seem to disagree. DESCRIBE AT ME, BRO.

Some of Alfred's reads confuse me, but I won't give them the Spanish Inquisition if they're already claiming not to have much reasoning. My most emphatic disagreement is probably Andrius, though I'd also love to hear why Goat is town.

The list of reads there is 'marble first attempts at diving into the game and trying to sort people out (and he tends to not really have much reasoning at the beginning of his whole thing). He hasn't had as much as time as he's wanted to really dig into the game but he's told me he'll have more time over the weekend while I'm gone to go through his whole process.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm leaning town on Zdenek for similar-ish reasons that Llamarble is. The recent Thor push seems founded on stretchy reasoning but he's pushing it with genuine conviction and I really like #492 on this end especially as I think he's far more likely to get frustrated at people interfering with his questioning as town. I remember going through ASoS and AffC a while back and he was way more robotic/mechanical than how he's acting here.

Llamarble and I disagree on Goat but we haven't had much time to talk about it (I have Goat as straight null - see upcoming post to Nacho).

Also, quadz, as the resident expert in Tierce-ology, I can pretty much assure you that Tierce is town in this game (if you want to know the reasons for it, then let me know and I'll explain the read when I come back).

[Alfred Borden]

@Nacho:

Let's talk about some stuff while I'm still around (well, I'll have to reply to it later but you know what I mean <_<).

I need you to go into more detail on the

Cephrir

townread since I was kinda vacillating earlier between scum and now null for him. I had a line of questioning going with him about his Shadoweh read but I kinda hit a wall with it and feel like I don't have anything really alignment revealing from him. #152 struck me as off when I read it in that he lists two popular-ish townreads and then downgrades his read on Shadoweh based off of one post at a time when a few people started FoSing her on the side. That read shift seemed suspicious to me because it seemed more like it was borne out of opportunism than anything else and it seemed like he shoved the two extra reads in there for padding. I caught the earlier townread he had in #77 so I questioned him about it and the read change. When asked, he says the earlier townread was based on gut, which is fine as that's valid but it's also something easy for scum to hide behind so I didn't really get anything from it. The rest of his play seems fairly textbook/inoffensive to me? There's a bit of stuff that I like (for example, how he's dealt with the Thor/Benmage argument in the thread) but nothing that's unequivocally town from him.

As far as

Goat

is concerned, I didn't find him voting for Ceph when the P&J wagon was going despite approving of it to be scummy as that's pretty standard CDB from what I remember of his meta. What bothered me was that there was no follow-up on P&J (e.g., what happened to his P&J read). I asked him about it and got what I felt was a pretty boilerplate (?) response from him. Aside from that, if I channel my inner Dutch Nibbler, I'd say they feel vaguely uncomfortable and haven't been as strong a presence in the thread but nothing substantial.

I'll give my own thoughts on

mollie

later but I want them to answer Tammy's #431 as that's the same question I had while going through this thread and, to my knowledge, they haven't answered it yet.

I read through your reasons for

ooba

being town but he seems like the kind of dude who's competent as scum and as such his posting seems pretty fakeable to me. Don't have as much time to talk about it right now since my time's running out but I will later.

Also, has Elli taken a look at this thread yet? If so, what are his thoughts (especially on P&J)?

[Alfred Borden]

did you not get maybe culture, when you are used to the noise factor it is not quite as noted but there was nothing of meaning there...just space. There is a lot of that... please note I come from where no one really explains thoughts and a paragraph would be considered a lot of detail... it is quite different than when I played before where there was a distinct lack of noise or any real engagement... but that is a side note, just to me came off as a lot of words with little meaning

Yawn.

I write lots of words because I actually value complete transparency and engagement, especially when the game's of this size (it becomes easier to miss things). Sometimes, I'll direct things at specific people because either I'm trying to sort the player in question out or I'm trying to see where that person is coming from on a particular read (especially if the player in question is someone I've played with a lot/trust/respect).

But thanks for dismissing my actual thoughts/method as "noise" and "substanceless". Really fucking appreciated.

[Alfred Borden]

Anyway, I need to go over the Thor/Benmage argument once more when I come back since I haven't looked too deeply into it, as well as finally sort out the meta stuff.

Also, Syryana, your vote actually rather sucks and you need to step it up. Pretty sure I've posted a lot about my balls. Those are pretty slam dunk towntells here.

P-edit: above applies to you too Thor (also, I'm thinking Benmage and Amrun are probtown from what I've read).

[Alfred Borden]

Oh and I forgot to say, Nacho, you can be reassured that Tammy's town. As in, this is probably the best I've felt about her alignment since Castle Zar.

See you Sunday.

[Alfred Borden]

Tammy makes sense and so do I.

A waking princess is a unit of sleep; it's the amount your typical sleeping beauty / Snow White type requires before awakening.

Town:
ALFIE

Amrun

Zero Information:
Safetydance

Scum Candidates:
Syryana
Andrius
Shadoweh

More later.

[Alfred Borden]

Empire here, I'm back! (and a little hungover)

I'll be catching up tonight after dinner.

[Alfred Borden]

Slowly getting through the thread and there's already a lot of stuff I want to respond to so I'm breaking this up into chunks.

My vote is pretty awesome right where it is - even if you think Benmage is town what makes that read so awesome as to make my vote suck?
His case on me is pretty nonexistent for the strength of it, easily justifying my reaction to it.

What do you see that I'm missing?

My read on Benmage is very largely meta based. If you have the time, compare his play in /in-vitational 12 with his play in The Wire and it's like night and day. As town, he can get very abrasive and combative and he's definitely not shy about talking how he feels he's above the game. You'll also get some long droughts of inactivity from him. As scum, it's the opposite - he generally tries to tone down his ego, acts a lot friendlier/more cooperatively and just cares way more about his image. He also has a belief that lurking as scum is an atrocity to the game of Mafia (see; middle of this post), so seeing less engagement from him is a sign that he's probably town. The fact that's come in and not really engaged with a big portion of the game (he still hasn't read the first parts of it according to him), flipped out about the level of play in this game (#536), and just generally has been abrasive here forms the basis for my townread (and it's gotten stronger after seeing posts like #576).

Do I think his "case" on you is weak? Yeah, if only because I know you'd do what he's complaining about regardless of alignment. Do I think he's scum for it? Absolutely not. Also, him pushing it with a lot of "strength" is more an element of his personality/playstyle I'd say than anything else.

Information useful to you: he's a scum-preference type. He as scum is image-conscious; a few things that he did that didn't seem very concerned in cultivating image were #290, after Goat was dangling a possible townread in from of him if he behaved like a good boy and he said "I dunno why the hell you were scumreading me before but :hitoshrug:" instead of keeping up his old momentum. His interactions with us feel decently smooth so far (particularly calling us out for a weak Amrun case), and I've liked his lines of questioning so far.
[...]
I expect a slow start from him so following the grain early on isn't necessarily scummy, if that makes sense.
[...]
His 007 post killed me so I'll probably not lynch him yet. I do have other reasons for him being town lately, but I'd rather let you guys sort him out on your own because the wagon isn't that bad and it'd be nice to have somebody check my work since ooba is competent as scum. Still feels town, though. I would pay special attention to the end of #513, though; that was pretty cool.

If Cephrir is the scum preference type, then I definitely am putting him on the "to meta" list because it's hard for me to sort out dudes like that (it took me eons to get a decent grasp of RedCoyote's meta and I don't feel all that confident that I do even now). You're right about #290 but if he's good at scum, doesn't that seem like it's easy to fake? Fair point about the "following the grain bit" but I need to double check these two points with some metadiving.

I've put ooba on the "to meta" list as well, I should be able to do both of them before deadline but I might not get into some of the others I've wanted to like quadz and Amrun. The 007 post made me lose my shit laughing but I don't really find the end of #513 particularly townish.

I am removing alfred from the nice pile. alfred, mebbe you can explain what tammy was asking in that post cos I have no fucking idea. I mean I asked goat if he was town yeah? how did that turn into me dismissing his saying he was town? idgi

It's very simple: Tammy can correct me if I'm wrong but she's asking in #431 why you aren't considering Goat's read on quadz if you find them to be an asset to the town. I thought this was important because your quadz vote was really weird in light of that and in light of #345 too (e.g., you go from saying you feel better about him to voting him and I didn't really get why).

[Alfred Borden]

MacTammyTierceEmpireThorNastyrashaNacho vote this with me pls

Maybe later, I'm hunting

wabbits

cats. Also, you could have done way better than Tammy. Way to suck.

Because he posted a reads list that contains so few town reads combined with a handful of weak wristed scum reads combined with not including me a player he may or may not have just indicated should die and/or had nonsensical votes. Also, he had just indicated a townread on Benmage but left him off his town list, making either this lista lie, or his advocacy of Benmage=teh townz a lie, so either way I want him dead now.

Siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiigh.

Hey Thor, try taking a look at the first page of the game. See that part that says we're a hydra? That was my other head who posted that list. I even said in #599 that the lists of stuff come from him and that he's a lot slower/more methodical than I am at sorting out his own reads. I'm letting him do his own thing because he works best uninterrupted and he's frankly a far better scumhunter than I am. The reads list you're complaining about is a follow up on his earlier one and the "more later" should have been a really really obvious hint that said second list was incomplete and that he was planning to fill it up as he checked more stuff. If you've actually bothered to read any of this hydra's posts, you'd notice that this head haven't been exactly shy about my townreads nor the reasoning for them (and as far as the Benmage townread goes, see my last post).

And I never ever said I wanted you dead. The only thing I said was that a joke I directed to Syryana applied to you too. I think you absolutely do have horrible/nonsensical votes but that doesn't make you scum (I learned my lesson from Black Flag Nightless). You're null and I suspect you'll probably stay there for most of this game as there's very little I think you won't do as scum, if anything at all.

Mainly? What else caused you to make that vote?

Hey StupendousMan, I wrote a bunch of words explaining why I think you're scum because you asked and I'm not usually this nice and you ignored me and that makes me very very sad, pls don't ignore me

[Alfred Borden]

The only thing Safety's posted as of where I am is a prod dodge and I'm on like post 800, chill pls

[Alfred Borden]

@Nacho re - #812:

1) Yeah, I was really worried when I read your first catch-up because it seemed like it was the same kind of low-effort/disinterested/disengaged stuff I remember from your scum game but you've stepped up here and that makes me feel happy in my insides. Still want to know how much of this game Elli's looked at though, that's the only worry I have at the moment.

2) Eh, honestly, I think your reasons for reading Andy as town are naive. I mean, even when he was scum in The Game That Shall Not Be Mentioned, he seemed to be "having fun" (at least on the surface anyway - we're talking stuff like jovial tone, etc.) and I can see him doing the fake PR thing as either alignment really. Not really concerned about his activity because I know what's going on with him but I just want to see readable content from him and I don't have that yet and I'm not going to give him a pass for it.

3) Cephrir looks better after the Thor interactions (which I'll admit I mostly skimmed because it got to be noise at some point) but sorry, I'm a big paranoid baby and his scum-preference just means it won't be an easy townread.

4) Gotta ask 'marble, last I talked to him he was still in his initial sorting phase.

[Alfred Borden]

MAFIA
Garruk
nautilius
alfred
ellebereth
kanye
goat
pride
andrius
macmollie
thor

Vote: Garruk Relentless

Uh, ok, you need to explain how you came up with ten scumreads. I just went and ISO'd you right now to see if you've already answered this and you haven't - the exact number doesn't matter it's the fact that there's so many of them at this point.

Also, Tierce, I don't really buy the SD-Nacho slip thing. That requires them to be connected explicitly via scum QT and I can see SD making that error as town.

[Alfred Borden]

By the way Tierce, having read that dude's full ISO, I don't really think he's scum. I remember him reacting the same way to being suspected when he was town in The Wire (which you really need to read if you haven't already).

[Alfred Borden]

StupendousMan, how much offsite mafia experience do you have, if any?

[Alfred Borden]

Holy shit, I don't think I can ever even bring myself to suspect mollie after #895. Call me a sucker or whatever but that shit was just way too genuine and just hit way too close to home.

Spoiler: An Empire Mafia Autobiography

I started playing mafia in 2010 but I've only been playing forum mafia since last year. I came from EpicMafia (which, as you might know, is pretty notorious around here) and I'm used to chat mafia, 10 minute days and being able to call out entire scum teams within minutes. Being able to write lots of words in my old site was basically impossible which I guess is why I really treasure the opportunity to do so here. When I first started playing on MS, the shift was super jarring to me - as in, the concept of not even knowing the full setup (EM setups are all what you guys would call open/semi-open) was just absolutely mindblowing to me. I think I've been picking stuff up pretty easily but I still feel like a noob in a lot of ways and like I really don't know what I'm doing (doubly so now since I've come off a 3 month hiatus).

Looking over this post, I guess I don't really know what the point of it is except to let you know that I know it feels to adjust to a different site in a LOT of ways.

[Alfred Borden]

I don't have time to go much more in-depth than that.

Please do so when you get some more time.

Anyway, here's a current reads list from the Empire head of the hydra to make Thor more frustrated. Llamarble's not on right now, but I want to talk with him and see where he's at so we can compare notes.

TOWN:
Tammy
Tierce
PrideAndJoy
Nautilius
macmollie
kanye
---
Benmage
Syryana
elleheathen
quadz
Goat
---
Amrun
Zdenek
SafetyDance

REMAINING = {Andrius, Cephrir, Garruk, MC, ooba, PeaceBringer, Shadoweh, StupendousMan, Thor}

[Alfred Borden]

Oh and I forgot, Nacho, I just looked at your second PoE list again to compare where we're at, and you need to cross Tierce off of it on the double mister. Do you remember what I said about my expertise? This shit is non-negotiable.

[Alfred Borden]

Just a notice from this head (Empire) that I PASSED THE FLORIDA BAR EXAM WOOO and the swearing in ceremony is tomorrow afternoon/evening, so my posting will be almost nil until that's done.

[Alfred Borden]

Empire head here, just got back from the ceremonies and stuff. This is mostly just to avoid the prod. Will post tomorrow.

[Alfred Borden]

I (Marble) will catch up tomorrow too.

[Alfred Borden]

It's 4am so I'm just going to go through a few people.

Agar is probably town. Scumhunting energy pattern. Andrius' replace out post was a townping too.
Also since Empire wrote most of our posts I probably haven't corrupted the TET daymasonizing system

Amrun might actually be scum. Will revisit when sentient.

[Alfred Borden]

Empire here, been dealing with Bar exam passage related stuff/misc. other things and I finally have enough time now to dedicate to catching up.

Looks like I have 15 pages to power through. Will I make it all the way to the end???? Let's find out.

[Alfred Borden]

*cracks knuckles*

@Alfred - do you seriously expect me to read your heads separate?

That's not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is that both of us have different ways of doing things (Llamarble especially plays very differently than most people do but he wrecks shit when he gets into his groove), and if dissonance really bothers you, then just leave us to our own devices while we figure stuff out and we're able to pool our resources together. We're heading there but it's still going to take some time. I guess this is just a long winded way of me asking you for a bit of patience.

notable thing is that the theory under the sea is thrown out due to the replace out
andrius is back on the list

Really? If anything, I found the replace out townish, especially the "Tierce is town though, I just wanted to be a bit more careful with things" bit -- mostly the fact that he felt the need to explain what he was doing there in his early interaction with Tierce and the result he got from it as he was leaving. I think as scum he'd have just left it at "my reads are the same as before" as that doesn't really give away much information considering the early game nature of the reads.

Desp, you should vote Zdenek with me.

@Tierce- Empire said something polite in the post where he addressed me, so I returned the favor.

@Shadoweh- Who do you think is scum right now? I'm too lazy to look back.

StupendousMan, you're making me very very sad again. I asked you a question in #932 and you ignored me. Please answer my question.

Peacebringer folding under such little pressure is a problem.

Eh, disagree here. PeaceBringer replacing out because he felt like people were putting down his playstyle felt more town to me. I think he'd be far less inclined to care as scum.

(P.S.: Tierce is still town and you're wrong, sorry foxman.)

I have no idea what he is capable of

Here's a long, detailed, comprehensive list of the things I am capable of doing as scum:

[Alfred Borden]

Really really dislike the reads list ooba put up in #1098. I need to make some time this weekend to cross check some of his games, but the rationale behind a lot of those reads seem really weak and I don't really see any natural progression towards it or to further any of the reads on it. It just feels like content for the sake of content.

That last bit with Thor and kanye (which, incidentally, pinged Thor-Town for me). kanye's reaction to Thor answering for someone else seemed out of place, as it wasn't any sort of leading question, it was something that jut asked for a clarification. It seems like kanye is trying to ply that "Town who is annoyed at someone ruining their magic" line and doing it out of place--that reaction to Thor doesn't feel like it's coming from Town.

Not really seeing it at all here w.r.t. kanye and the "annoyed at being interrupted" thing seems consistent with his early game reaction-wagon approach. More importantly, though, kanye seems to me like the kind of guy who thinks about the long game as scum and wouldn't throw down a vote if he didn't think there was something substantial behind it. I don't think he'd try to go for that knee-jerk reaction as scum to look town as there's no long-term benefit and is too high risk (for example, he risks getting backlash from attacking a "strong player" like Thor).

I don't know if any of this makes sense but it sounded way better in my head.

Borden, tell me about your read on me?

Llamarble and I already talked about it here and here and not much has changed in that regard. Sorry Zdenek-kun =/

Alfred Bordempire - I think I remember you saying that he was reacting much like he did as town in The Wire. I just read back through his play there last night as well as a couple of his other recent town games, and are you sure about that?

Well, I reread it again just now + compared it to his play in that game mollie linked. As scum, he just seems really awkward/forced and doesn't really know what to say when confronted with suspicion. The best example of that is #1115 in that game where he just kinda awkwardly tries to shrug off Majiffy's suspicion of him. In The Wire, he stood his ground and confidently addressed what people were saying about him (this post being a really good example). Take a look at how he responds to the ten scums related suspicion brought up against him here -- he addresses it point-blank, sounds completely comfortable in his responses and is not afraid to call people on what he sees as bullshit. I'll look over more games of his when/if I get some time, but I think he's a bad wagon.

[Alfred Borden]

I was hoping you'd pick up something in particular with The Wire game and here. There's something really incompatible that's bugging me.

Maybe it's because I'm tired or something but I'm really not seeing a difference here. What do you see?

(Still catching up but almost done.)

[Alfred Borden]

Ugh, have to go eat + sleep. There's not a whole lot left though so I will finish catching up and hopefully meta'ing ooba in the morning before I have to go to my friend's.

[Alfred Borden]

Finishing catching up now. Just woke up and I have to go to a friend's in a few minutes so I won't have enough time to meta dive properly today. I'll try to go through stuff on my phone if I get some time but very doubtful I'll be able to get in a full report back.

and the wagon was not moving very quickly at all and was split between lots of even wagons without anyone pushing him too strongly. its just sort of been percolating for awhile. doesnt really seem like a chill out and coast to a scumlynch kind of wagon 2me

Eh, disagree with this. I'm not very good with wagon logic but I think there are a lot of reasons wagons tend to stall out as they have been (well at that point anyway) and it's pretty much impossible for me to tell which until after the flip. I still feel good about this wagon, especially considering my townreads are all on this for the most part.

StupendousMan looks to have given up on trying to reason with the rest of the town, which actually reads as newtown in this context to me.

How so?

I wasn't getting the suspicions at all until AGar laid it out for me, though I can't help wondering whether those who joined the wagon before his post actually had much of a basis. I think he could easily just be a bit slow on the uptake and would certainly expect more out of him in later days, but I don't think we'd be smart lynching here when we could lynch, you know, scum.

Fairly sure I did actually give a reason for why I posted the original vote and I feel like the read's gotten stronger since then. Also, as far as your town case goes, from my understanding, I don't really think he was doing what you think he's doing w.r.t. his Shadoweh suspicions. Unless I'm missing something, I don't see any kind of "I may be suffering from confirmation bias"-type introspection. The Tierce scumread thing is a fair point but what bothers me about it more than anything is the progression into it. The rationale behind it just feels fake to me and it's pretty much impossible to see how he got from A to B.

you hit the nail on the head about sd. he said in our qt that he overwhelmed and that he couldn't keep up and in over his head. I think he would feel it even more so with this playerbase.

Well it's good that we see eye to eye on Safety but I don't really get your reasoning for your StupendousMan townread (I know you mentioned something about him being an easy target, which I agree with, but players considered easy targets generally can still be scum in a particular game and a LOT of his posts have pinged for me). Can you elaborate on that? If you already have, just link me to stuff, I probably missed something since I just woke up and haven't been fully processing stuff.

[Alfred Borden]

Alfred-

basically I meant the case where If "I assume you're scum and then proceed to read posts from you - obviously I'll find them scummy".

Am I misreading this?

Oh I'm dumb, I didn't see that he was referring to confirmation bias when he said "Pygmalion" in another post. Without that context, it seemed like he was just bringing up the concept without tying it to his read specifically.

Fair point about this too, but at the same time it seems pretty easy for a player of his experience to fake and a lot of stuff in his posting still really bothers me. I'll try and check his games today if I get the chance.

[Alfred Borden]

Unvote

I'll be investing a bunch of time into this game tonight and I am NOT going to let a wagon go through unvetted.

Ooba
#1393 CW marshalling,
6 votes doesn't seem like 'this is where you start if I'm lynched' territory.

"I reverse my read on Shadoweh --> Tierce is a scumread that won't get lynched today" isn't scummy though.
End of 513 looks townish too.
Ooba why shouldn't we lynch you?
Read explanations look scanny at first but some of them show thinking-time. Also contemplating others' ideas.

Meh, Ooba has a good effort to text ratio.

[Alfred Borden]

My Amrun townread was definitely hurt by her V/LA period.
She hasn't had the opportunity to show the sustained energy which was supposed to help me tell the difference between Amrun Town / Scum.

[Alfred Borden]

SafetyDance is a good vote.
VOTE: SafetyDance

We can do better than Ooba.

[Alfred Borden]

Safetydance lynch is now vetted and approved by both heads!

Tammy's meta observation and "Let's do this thread" followed in 5 minutes by "vote Thor because deadline approaching and let's sheep Benmage's policy lynch" were the main things that convinced Empire.
873 "I should follow up my read somehow; oh I've found something but the logic doesn't work but I feel obligated to post something so I'll plant it anyway" is cursory / just-for-show scumhunting too.

We would've liked to discuss more of the game but Empire had to go.

[Alfred Borden]

I do feel like we should be seeing more from Amrun. Good flurry -> coasting is worrisome from her.
Her stuff so far works from town though.

SM looks town. #1015 & #1297 in particular, but mostly he's doing the right things and has several posts that would be good fakes.

[Alfred Borden]

Then we could have haggis!

[Alfred Borden]

Hey, I've adventured so far as to attempt eggs with salsa and candycorn. Also I once made a fish and on one half I melted half a hershey bar and on the other half I melted some brie. Neither half was really improved though.
And one time I gave some underclassmen bars of soap and they had to not drop them during the duration of a Prison themed scavenger hunt with shivs and rock breaking.

In other news, Thor is pretty opaque and could be scum.

[Alfred Borden]

If anyone ever offers you Creamy Chicken flavored ramen, the correct answer is to shout "IT'S SLIME TIME" and devour it with enthusiasm.

[Alfred Borden]

I reverse my read on shadoweh.

Tierce is a scumread that wont get lynched today.
Garruks scum.
^ lynch either of them - they will flip scum

Let me look at the VC before voting.

@Nautilius:

Thank you for 473. I still don't have a read on you - but that's the best "defense of ooba" post I've seen in quite a while.
Addn: Slight town read for 484 - exactly what I was thinking after -

"This quadz wagon is lame. ooba is better. elle is town."

- Amrun's voting me? Scroll up to VC - nope.

Thats easy. Thor is not someone i want lynched today. SafetyDance either.

unvote. Vote: Garruk

Those of you who think im town and are on single vote wagons would do well to consolidate.

@Mage: I have a couple of strong scum reads and id really like to see them lynched. Not feeling Thor-scum - and it doesnt just boil down to the miller claim.

@Alfred: Because im town.

Tammy makes a good point about safety disappearing. Id be happier about my read if he continued to contribute.

Yeah, I do not sanction an Ooba lynch. This is all pretty good stuff.
Straight opinions, reevaluation, interest in making sure town lynches well.
He also hasn't autopursued the most likely counterwagon to himself.

[Alfred Borden]

tierce - will probably leave tierce up to mac and naut.

You know, maybe one day someone will recognize my almost clairvoyant ability to read Tierce (she's town).

I don't even have to read the thread to know that this is a scum post.

(You should read the game, it's fun and stuff. Promise.)

[Alfred Borden]

Hey, Empire checking in, got back from dinner not too long ago and gotta catch up on the last few pages.

[Alfred Borden]

Unvote

Oh my god, I want this guy to be scum so so fucking badly but I just can't bring myself to keep my vote on him. Based on what I know of him, I'll be absolutely fucking floored if he's reacting this way as scum.

Thor's probably the least bad of the major wagons right now since my last talk with 'marble had lessened my scumread on ooba considerably.

Vote: Thor

One of 'marble/myself will be around near deadline, I think, if anything happens.

P-edit: Really kanye? In that one scum game I looked at, this dude pretty much awkwardly clammed up under pressure. The reaction here is like night and day.

[Alfred Borden]

Tammy, if you read this, you need to seriously step away for a bit and calm down. This reminds me exactly of how mad I got at Saki in Xenologue to the point where I ended up not giving a shit about the dude's alignment and that ended up at least partially contributing to the loss there. Regfan went and pointed out every single one of Saki's towntells after it was over and I felt like an idiot (well, to a point).

SafetyDance just flat out isn't scum and I think you'll be able to see that once you go over this recent stuff again.

[Alfred Borden]

Meek players don't necessarily stay meek. "He clammed up under pressure that one time" doesn't mean he's obvtown now. Look at the content of his reaction and really evaluate your townread.

Except the scum game I looked at (same one mollie linked) happened recently (it began on June 28th). Unless you're going to make the argument that he's improved his scum game to the point where he's able to react like this now as scum, this argument doesn't hold water.

P-edit: Jesus christ, I literally saw this guy get accused of and wagoned for doing the exact same thing as town in The Wire. I townread him correctly there and I'm pretty damn sure I'm right now.

P-editx2: I don't know Tierce, let me think about it for a bit since shit's getting real now.

[Alfred Borden]

I think Thor is Town--the stuff he's been accused at is the kind of thing he does regardless of alignment. Not voting there unless we need that vote by deadline.

Thoughts on Messiah Complex? 1671 bothers me, he's not looking deeply enough.

Ok, a couple of things:
1) Elaborate a bit on your Thor townread? You say a lot of the stuff he's done here he'd do regardless of alignment (and I agree) so what has you leaning town on him? (If you've already explained, link me to the posts, can't be assed to look atm.)
2) I haven't really given MC too much thought this game as I've been looking at other things with the limited time I've had and I don't think now is the time. I will say, though, that Desperado as either alignment does seem like the kind of guy who imposes higher standards of competency on players who just aren't all that competent from what little I remember/remains valid of his meta so I don't find that post to be all that interesting.

If you feel confident enough in calling this a 1 to 1 situation then I have absolutely no issue making the argument that he's approaching the same situation differently with the knowledge of the previous game in mind. He got lynched after clamming up, right?

Except meta doesn't work that way -- you're implicitly making the argument that his meta is irrelevant because it is easily manipulable which is just wrong for a variety of reasons I don't have the time to get into now, not the least of which is Safety's competency (or lack thereof).

[Alfred Borden]

This is all but impossible to do on a phone. I need a favor: can someone go through Faraday and his hydras' games and see if he has millers? Check the role PMs, he might not call them millers explicitly. I'd like the accounts Faraday, Eddard Stark, The Baltimore Sun, Lost Butterfly and Vu checked for this. I don't think I missed any recent modding accounts, but please remind me if I did.

I just scanned Faraday's wiki and there has been no Town Miller in any of his MS games (and there was definitely no miller in The Wire Season 1, only game modded under The Baltimore Sun account).

P-edit: Ok, if you actually want me to go ahead and fucking go through all of his scum games, I will in the one hour I have left to be awake.

[Alfred Borden]

Ok, so here's about the fullest meta report I can do in the limited time I have left (and considering Safety tends to flake a lot as both alignments):

TOWN: The Wire Season 1, Lord of the Rings Mafia
SCUM: Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone, Open 502
(You can also add the Hidden Temple game here if you wish, I didn't put it on because mollie's already mentioned the salient points.)

As you can see from combing through the games, Safety does get into self-defense mode a lot (#468 from The Wire -- "I come back and find I have to defend myself against a vote and post I made eight hours into the game. Sorry if I'm a little distracted?" -- I think sums it up pretty well). I do think, though, that there's a huge difference in the way he reacts as town vs. the way he reacts as scum. As town, he tends to get a lot more emotional in his language and I get the sense that he takes consensus suspicion very personally (which I consider a towntell generally, but especially so in his case). There's also way more nuance to his defenses as town, as he's able to break down his actions in massive detail. As scum, I get the impression that he struggles to come up with things to say and he gets very dismissive/handwavy with accusations but there's no actual substance or emotion behind it.

Take a look at what he's doing here: the cynical "go fuck yourselves, I'll be around to say I told you so in the post game" reaction and the emotion behind it fits in strongly with how he reacts as town. There's no awkward filter in place here and it feels like he's just speaking from the heart w.r.t. how he feels about the game. There's a sort of undercurrent beneath all of his posts where you can get the impression that he's taking his wagon and the suspicion against him incredibly personally. Also take a look at #1646 --

the fact that he went out of his way to go and look into one of his own past games in some detail to refute a meta-based argument brought against him is actually a pretty big towntell and way above what I'd expect from him as scum.

So hopefully, you can all see where I'm coming from on this. I'm going to bed now and while I think I'll be around at deadline, I can't guarantee it. So peace and let's hope for a D1 scum lynch here.

P-edit: Ceph, read what I just wrote.

[Alfred Borden]

Well that was productive.
Sorry Messiah, but the most annoying / antitown things people do tend to be the things that make them town.

I'm not super confident in the Thor wagon, but at least the company is good? When did we last hear from Elleheathen?
Elleheathen looks good.

Ooba's 1565 did suck pretty hard

I prefer to avoid lynching people with postcount > 100 D1.

Thor is actually an okay lynch though!

[Alfred Borden]

@mod - this slot will be V/LA until Sunday the 6th. Apologies for the inconvenience.

[Alfred Borden]

As of right now, there are six players alive who do not have the town wincon.

For people who are better than me at setup spec, what does this mean for multiball vs. single scum team?

[Alfred Borden]

Knowing the number not town aligned is awesome
And Goat can't even be lying because instadeath if game doesn't end after 6 dead scum.

Tammmmmyyyyy
I was going to sing you a song but now I can't

Vending fruit N1 is pretty derp.

HEY SD

tell me why you chose Garruk for

The Vending

VOTE: Amrun

[Alfred Borden]

Right. Same question.

[Alfred Borden]

There's a princess in the song.

I would've tracked N1 to make myself as helpful as possible as soon as possible.
I guess I tend to have a lowish shelf life though.

Why you vended and who you send it to matters because it's a good concrete point for you to explain your motives on.

[Alfred Borden]

That's okay.
Let's vote Amrun together!

Displaced doesn't look like a scumbag.
I'll make a new list tonight or tomorrow.

[Alfred Borden]

##Vote: Alfred

I need you to answer one question for me, who are you?

I'm a DRAGON!
The biggest one of all!
Did you try to marry me?

[Alfred Borden]

Benmage, why are you not in here pontificating about how amazing you are right now owning that massive fuckup of a clear and obvious mislynch?

That lynch was a clear success. Get better.

No. If you're town, you played bad.
So did I.

[Alfred Borden]

I don't have a strong read on either Cephir or Ooba, but I don't want to lynch either of them today.

It's a little early for "Don't want to lynch today" on neutralreads.
Also both of those players have good amounts to go off of.

Amrun if you don't want to get lynched we're going to need a lot more out of you in the next few days.

[Alfred Borden]

@Amrun: Some of column A, some of column B.
I forgot about your weekend V/LA
1933 & 1934 are definitely a good start though.

TOWN:
Alfred Borden
Tammy
Tierce
Elleheathen - For the little things (#469, #1861, # 687). And the usual things. Strong read.
SafetyDance

Benmage is probably town - 1652, etc. I still have the urge to lynch him though because he's acting Benmagey.
Cephrir is playing a good game if he's scum. He's certainly putting in the work and especially a lot of his later posts are solid. #1889, other stuff.

Agar might be scum. His play is solid but the townie X factor isn't blazing.
Messiah Complex is similar with a lot of scumhunty posts but nothing unfakeable. Will revisit this slot and Agar slot.

Gonna stop now due to World Championship!

[Alfred Borden]

@Amrun: Some of column A, some of column B.
I forgot about your weekend V/LA
1933 & 1934 are definitely a good start though.

TOWN:
Alfred Borden
Tammy
Tierce
Elleheathen - For the little things (#469, #1861, # 687). And the usual things. Strong read.
SafetyDance

Benmage is probably town - 1652, etc. I still have the urge to lynch him though because he's acting Benmagey.
Cephrir is playing a good game if he's scum. He's certainly putting in the work and especially a lot of his later posts are solid. #1889, other stuff.

Agar might be scum. His play is solid but the townie X factor isn't blazing.
Messiah Complex is similar with a lot of scumhunty posts but nothing unfakeable. Will revisit this slot and Agar slot.

Gonna stop now due to World Championship!

[Alfred Borden]

Also, Amrun's "I can't believe you people think I'm scum because of a sitewide activity issue" was super town because I went through something extremely similar and I never ever would have considered saying it in a scum game. She probably knew it would look bad as she was giving the excuse and she didn't give a shit because she thought the suspicion on her really was that ridiculous--towntowntown.

- Des

She does it regardless of alignment.

That's great, does she sound as perfectly frustrated-town as she did in her responses to Nautilius as both alignments also?

- Des

Let's put this bluntly and shortly because I am still on edge about someone doing this: Amrun has used grief for the death of a family member as an excuse not to post as scum,

and

felt perfectly okay with others giving her a pass for it. While I do not doubt she has RL issues, she is not above using them as an excuse and throwing a tantrum because she knows it hits a chord.

This sort of thing is why I think Amrun has one of the widest scumranges on site.
Also there was flash (voideaten) where she did a very good 'howmanyscum.'

I have no problem with scum doing this, since town do it, and scum should be allowed to do anything town do.

[Alfred Borden]

Hey, Empire here, I'm back and I'll start catching up now. Sorry for the long absence.

(My head's killing me and I've barely slept so we'll see how this goes.)

[Alfred Borden]

Ok, my attention's slowly fading so I did skim some of the wallier posts >_>
I'll reread when I'm not feeling completely miserable so if I missed anything, just let me know.

And yeah I know empire's going to come in here and yell at me, but I just don't care right now. If you're town I have no idea what the hell you thought you were doing.

You're lucky I decided to go check the latest VC after this post because I was going to put you in time out if that was still there.

hello, all. i want to lynch garuck and terice and also maybe amrun a little someonje whos good @ finding scum and also town pls tell me what 2 do ty

Well, Tierce is town and I'm leaning that way towards Garruk as well but I'm going to reread them when I have a clearer head. Hope this helps, kanye-kun.

Tierce what do I have to do to join this TET thing you guys have going, doesn't TETS just roll off the tongue? Would I have to stop being really good at fooling you all specifically into townreading me, is that what the problem is? Tammy and Empire probably hate me again but I haven't done anything to you lately! Well, that's not technically true but etc.

Tammy shutup, how could I have suspected that Llamarble and Empire combined was anything but a hunk of man meat?! I mean come the fuck on! (actually I kind of thought if King of the Seals was a miller then finding a not-human was a possible scum result, so I wasn't asking ahead of time. >_> ) Besides, I'm not marrying anyone, it's more like oh giggity yes.

Well, the obvtownie fun club is pretty exclusive. I just checked your background and it would seem that after games like Wingate Mansion you are, in fact, not the kind we're looking for (on a more serious note, this is why I'm just deferring to my other head completely on you). Also, this dragon is in a bit of a funk after Tammy rejected us so sorry, you're going to have to wait for us to learn to love again.

OH YEAH
And Peacebringer's replace out here is kind of scummy because he did the same thing as scum in a different game, citing similar player-dislike reasons. Except the ones in the other game were reasonable whereas here it seemed like a terrible excuse. So I don't know why displaced is getting townreads.

Well my initial thought was that the replace out here was kinda town since I think he'd be more likely to be offended by someone putting down his playstyle to the point of replacing out as town (and I vaguely remember him posting in MD about people shitting on his playstyle here before he left). I didn't think anything of the replace out in Wingate Mansion for obvious reasons, but now that you mention it, it might be worth checking out to see if he only replaces out like this as scum.

[Alfred Borden]

This was once Syryana. No longer.

Vote: AGar

If you're who I think you are, thank fucking god you replaced into a slot I'm finally reading as town for once.

On a related note, why AGar?

[Alfred Borden]

when were you scumreading syrlacious?

I never was, I'm just stoked that that player (if I'm right anyway) replaced someone I had a townread on for reasons I don't want to get into right now. Worded it poorly probably because I'm not 100% here mentally right now.

Also, re: that alt being cryptic/roleplaying/whatever, I don't think so; there's only one player on the site who posts like that.

[Alfred Borden]

Tierce, please don't kill my dreams, thanks.

Also, mollie, looking through it now.

[Alfred Borden]

Ok so here are all the finished games PeaceBringer's had since his return to the site: Wingate Mansion, La Isla de la Muerte, Antihero Mafia (cut very short due to thread implosion), Chef Mafia.

He was scum in two of them -- unfortunately, Antihero Mafia imploded way too quickly for the tell to be reliable. One thing I noticed is that he had an obscene amount of posts in Chef Mafia and I vaguely remember him being run up in that game as town + eventually being nightkilled (meaning he didn't replace out). Might be worth going back to his past to see if this was a problem then but I'm about to head to lunch and this might turn into a full on meta report so I want to do this when I'm more attentive.

[Alfred Borden]

so he was scum in 2, town in 2, replaced out both times as scum

that isn't why I originally said his replace was weird ohso long ago tho

He didn't replace out in the second game so there isn't enough data here to really make that a viable tell. And personally, I didn't feel his replace out was weird at all until Shadoweh brought up that theory (also, ooba makes a good point in his #2090 about his protracted reaction).

Gut. And more recently, 2047.

Well when Llamarble and I last talked, we both liked Andy's replace out / AGar's entrance into the thread, particularly the energy of the latter but I feel like there's been somewhat of a fade into complacency that really bothers (2047 is an example of this + the whole post is just fucking awful generally). We haven't had a chance to talk since I came back though so I'm hoping we can do it really soon to hash out where we are.

SpyreX replaces displaced! Welcome him to the game

Man, I really want to be super amped here but the truth is I just feel like this game got way harder.

[Alfred Borden]

TOWN:
Alfred Borden
Tammy
Tierce
Elleheathen - For the little things (#469, #1861, # 687). And the usual things. Strong read.
SafetyDance

Benmage is probably town - 1652, etc. I still have the urge to lynch him though because he's acting Benmagey.
Cephrir is playing a good game if he's scum. He's certainly putting in the work and especially a lot of his later posts are solid. #1889, other stuff.

Agar might be scum. His play is solid but the townie X factor isn't blazing.
Messiah Complex is similar with a lot of scumhunty posts but nothing unfakeable. Will revisit this slot and Agar slot.

Sorry Goats you are probably town but so is Elle.
I don't think it's unusual for town to think about Best Lynches in terms of utility, especially when they also think the lynchee is scum.

Kanye has dropped off. He goes in the scum candidates pile. P.Edit: it bugs me too!

[Alfred Borden]

Approx halfway done - taking a break for dinner. Just a little status update.

:anticipation:

I'm pretty convinced Shadoweh is town too. Maybe we can start our own SL thingy. TEST does have a nice ring though. Or in this game it can be STAT!

Everyone's activity is relevant to their alignment.
Kanye got off to a good start and people lost interest in him and his production went down. That's a scum pattern for me.

[Alfred Borden]

TOWN:
STAT
SD

Elle
Cephrir

Zdenek
Mollie
Garruk
Nautilius - Does Nacho serve as posting head? Hard to fully trust any entity containing Elli after Bedtime.

Goat
Quadz
Benmage
Alch

Sketchy Folk:
Spyspy
Messiah
Agar
Amrun
Stupendousman
Kanye
Ooba

[Alfred Borden]

Tomorrow Empire and I are gonna decide who to lynch!
Wheeee

Naut has been energetic with a lot of 'this is good stuff if he's scum' posts.

[Alfred Borden]

@Tammy and Zdenek:

I'll get to your guys' meta requests when I wake up tomorrow. I didn't get to follow Chef Mafia *that* closely so I don't really know much about PeaceBringer's reaction to getting wagoned other than it happened and he didn't replace. And Zdenek, I'm very confident Tierce is town -- the meta case Tammy linked should sum it all up in a nutshell.

[Alfred Borden]

VOTE: Agar
Yarp.

Tammy are you trying to figure out whether you spawned (or blackwidowed?) something evil?
Accurate as of thread unlock = applies to Alchemist but probably not Syryana (not included in "alive").

In this case yes. I understand if you don't understand the scum tell of baiting the hammer, but what you did was a very obvious case of it. The tempo of the game dictated that the town wanted to pressure Amrun for answers, not necessarily to lynch her. There is a reason the wagon initially appeared to stop at L-2. You, however, seized the moment and manipulated the tempo with a 'case' and turned the pressure wagon into a lynch wagon when it was apparent that the town was not intending to lynch her. This tempo shift in turn manipulates a future voter to hammer out of turn.

Yarp.

P.edit: Hmm?

[Alfred Borden]

Other head here, just got caught up and want to address a couple of things right now:

The thor lynch hurts my head, but I will say this: its the right brand of hurt that I bet that is a way heavy town wagon. When VCA time comes, remember that.

Erm, ok, how are you arriving at any sort of conclusion w.r.t. that wagon given that the wagon formed basically out of deadline rush?

@Alchemist:

What do you think of Andrius' posts before the replace out? (This is something me and my other head have been discussing but I want your thoughts here.)

[Alfred Borden]

Bordempire did you guys ever get a chance to look at Elle's scum game. I want to check out a town game to see if what I'm thinking I'm seeing is really a thing or not. Hopefully I'll have time to do that tomorrow.

I did! Basically I thought there was a hell of a lot more posturing in her game but I need to check out that one town game she has that just finished (will do it tomorrow since I'm about to head to bed).
Aside from that, her play still read pretty town for me the last time I checked.

[Alfred Borden]

I'm considering mcs case on Elle, though I still think spyrex is a good vote, his post was kinda mehsville but I did like some of his points on Elle.

Bordempire did you guys ever get a chance to look at Elle's scum game. I want to check out a town game to see if what I'm thinking I'm seeing is really a thing or not. Hopefully I'll have time to do that tomorrow.

Wow, she has a strong scumgame. I am impressed by her level of bubbly cuteness while scum.
Maybe I was completely wrong

Also I still think the scumodds on Agar are good. I'm not seeing much evidence of the matter of the thing explaining stuff.

[Alfred Borden]

No, Elleheathen is still probably town.

[Alfred Borden]

Benmage isn't doing much, which isn't a bad sign for him. And what he is doing isn't particularly objectionable.

Zdenek and Cephrir are the next two stale townreads to revisit.

[Alfred Borden]

Because the end of Day 1 is the kind of thing the scum-sandman sends to good baby scums each night when they deserve extra happy dreams.

Assuming you're not under heat as scum the only thing better than a bad lynch is no lynch at all. Given their druthers, scum would have left that claim alive forever. That end-of-day mad push was very town feeling most of the way through.

Ok, I'm not sure if it's because I'm dumb or what but I had to read this a few times and I'm not sure I fully get what you're saying here. Are you saying that scum would have been more likely to let it slide into a no lynch? Because that just seems like an overly simplistic way of looking at it + not what actually happens at least from my experience. I'd have to take a look at the wagon again to see if this was actually the case here but the veil of deadline seems like a super easy thing for scum to hide behind (bonus because Thor was a miller claim too) as they can just plop down reasonless votes without scrutiny.

@Alfred:

Meta seems to be your department - Did you get time to do the peace old games meta?

Unfortunately, not yet. I only looked at the replace-out thing but there really wasn't enough info on that front. And frankly I'm not sure that diving fully into those games would give an accurate picture of his meta -- dude just doesn't really have enough games since his return, doubly so considering one of his scum games was cut short. I guess I could look at his old games but if I remember correctly the last game he played since his return to the site was in 2006 which is just way too long ago.

[Alfred Borden]

I've been considering what to say because ooba's responses have made me a little more depressed at the idea of an ooba wagon working, also because I don't think they're bad, even if I agree with like.. none of his reads beyond the obvious ones. Come on ooba, just admit your Messiah case is better and stop joining the hammer outrage, it makes you look bad in general.

This bit just bugs the ever living shit out of me and I have no idea why and I hate myself for it.

Before I read on this I just want to talk about how this bothers me. He thinks mollie was killed because she was starting to coordinate the townblock and yet makes no effort to coordinate one himself?

I'll have some more to say about your other reads as they come to me but I don't really think this is that big of a deal? If you were thinking about Wingate Mansion here, Desperado in this game at least feels like he just gives way more of a shit about the game -- in that game, he just seemed cold / detached. And I remember in that game he just strung together a bunch of names, called it a town bloc, but did nothing to work with them or further those reads. So in that context, I like the fact that he's coming forward and saying he's struggling (mostly, though, he just sounds very passionate and is comes off as town to me).
By the way, I'm pretty sure you forgot to mention your quadz read and I don't really get your Shadoweh read. Want to talk about these a little more?

Glass Towers, I don't have much meaningful to add to Nautilus' analysis of Andrius. Though for the sake of concision: Andrius' play was null. I see nothing in his ISO that's beyond his faking abilities as scum.

Well, the main reason I asked is because Llamarble and I have been going back and forth on it. Honestly, every time I take a look at his ISO, I do get some townpings. I liked the bit where he talked about how he wanted to be more careful in reading Tierce as it was a pretty stark contrast to the way he approached my slot in The Game That Won't Be Mentioned where he just basically excessively sucked up to us. As far as the PR thing goes, I don't know, my impression is that he wouldn't have the balls to fake it as scum "to prove a point" either. Basically what I guess I'm asking with all of this is do you really think he's competent enough to fake this the way that he did? Because my impression from That Game was that he's actually really bad at scum.

You should probably just vote for Spyrex.

Don't feel like it, sorry m8.

[Alfred Borden]

Alfred epitomes opportunism. Been on every large wagon. (Ooba, SD, Thor, Amrun)

More like caused every wagon we've been on to become large.
Pay attention.

[Alfred Borden]

Man, why is this game stagnating so hard? Haven't much to add except this:

AGar's last few posts seem to focus on himself.

Ok so what conclusion have you drawn about AGar's alignment from this?

As usual, I won't have much time tomorrow/Saturday but I'm going to go meta some people like I wanted to before.

[Alfred Borden]

How do you fit all that ego in there?

You dispute my powers? I can do magic! Besides, shouldn't two people have a bigger ego than one?

Since I'm not playing the game and am terrible at it anyway I realise the error of my ways, so I will be sheeping Tammy all day.

>>

That's okay.
Let's vote Amrun together!

Okay!

VOTE: amrun

VOTE: amrun

Even you yourself cannot resist our influence.

[Alfred Borden]

I wouldn't brag when the only lynches we have had have been mislynches.

I'm not proud, but Safetydance is peddling stupidity and needed a good mocking.

Elle read has mostly been me (Marble). She just has a lot of "gee, this is impressive if she's scum" posts.

[Alfred Borden]

Ugh, had a rough weekend so sorry for my lack of engagement recently. On a positive note though, I don't think I've been happier to see lots of pages in this thread than I am now. I'm staying up all of today to reset my sleeping schedule so expect more hours in this game with this half of Your Favorite Magician.

Town: Benmage, Cephrir, Garruk, Goat, Messiah, Shadoweh, Tierce,

Probably Town: Alfred, quads, the alchemist, zdenek, nautillus, safetydance

i will lynch any of: SPYREX, elle, ooba, prideandjoy, kanye, (at least on scum is in my town reads...I need to reread)

Ok, you and I need to talk because I've been townreading a lot of the people in your suspect pool and I want to know what's up here:

kanye:

Llamarble was concerned about him earlier but I think his play in this game has been very strongly town, especially reinforced if you go look at some of his old games. Compare his play as town in The Fortnight with his play as scum in Revolution Mafia. In The Fortnight, he was a lot more aggressive with his pushes (especially in the early game with his MattP reaction test) and seemed a lot more engaged generally and he's not afraid to get in people's faces unprompted / be abrasive (take a look at how he questions Quilford about his RQS). In his scum game, he seemed a lot more concerned with trying to fit in / staying under the radar and not make waves unless he had to (his activity really only started to spike after he started getting run up). I think his play here fits his town game perfectly (despite his weird activity shifts, he's had no problem coming back here and throwing himself into the game) to the point where he's one of my strongest townreads so I'm not really getting what you're seeing here especially.

ooba:

I found him pretty suspicious in the early game but given his more recent stuff and some assumptions I've made about his playstyle, dude seems solidly town to me. He's said somewhere in this game that he scumhunts by looking at associations so the big assumption I'm making about his play is that there will be more intensity coming from him over time. I took a look at some of his old games and while they might be a bit too old to be 100% solid as a meta framework (and it was a bitch to find good ones too), it's still worth thinking about. Compare his play as town in Succession Mafia II with his play as scum in /in-vitational 11. While he tends to look at mechanics a lot as both alignment, his reads feel like they're just way lazier as scum (just take a look at #381 and his later stuff doesn't improve). The big thing for me though is that he actually just plain seems to care A LOT more about who's actually getting lynched / optimal plays / etc. as town (ex: #2636 irritation). I like that in this game he seems to stick up for his reads and where the wagons are going -- way unlike his scum game where he was more passive.

PrideandJoy:

Unfortunately, I don't have a big meta folder on this slot as I just haven't had the time to look into both their heads (though my general impression is that they're playing to their town meta from Gay Mafia 2). I don't have much to add to what I said way back when about their earlier play (which still reads as very town even on a reread) other than to say I feel like Dan would find something to latch onto and push as scum rather than just proclaim he's lost. Big drop off in activity has me less certain about this read than I was on D1 but they're still reading town to me overall. Aside from (I'm assuming) the big drop in activity, what else has you scumreading them?

elleheathen:

I finally got some time this morning to take a look at her town game (the game in question) and is it weird to say that I think she's a lot bubblier as town? Basically, the impression I get from this game is that there's a lot less posturing in her posting overall and she doesn't just latch onto easy targets / focus on surface level scummy looking things. One thing though is that the difference from her scum game isn't as severe as I was expecting it to be but I don't particularly find her play in this game scummy at all. The general vibe that I get from her is that she doesn't feel intimidated by the roster despite being full of strong players and that she doesn't back down against someone like Thor. Why do you think she might be scum?

SpyreX:

I'll admit I don't really trust myself to read Spy in this game as I find his playstyle generally to be hard to read. I agree that the hammer thing is null (I don't remember if it's been mentioned yet or if someone else has brought it up since then, but he did the same thing in Maf.Puppy as town) and there are some things about his play that bug me in that he's been focusing on surface level stuff (his criticizing elle for wanting a claim before a hammer was pretty lame given her level of experience / the kind of game we're playing here, both things I feel he should have picked up on) but nowhere near confident enough to pin down a read on him, let alone vote him. Basically, I don't get where your confidence is coming from so mind talking about this one a little more too?

Aside from that, I'm in general agreement with your townreads though I'd switch Safety and Shadoweh around and I'd put Nautilius up a tier higher. One thing though: it seems as though you misplaced my slot in the "Probably Town" pile and not in the "Town" pile and you need to correct this very serious oversight (aren't you glad I'm such a great friend / player?)

Gotta head over to my old school to sort out job search related things + put some coffee in my system but I'll be back soon to tackle the rest of the thread, just needed to get this post out there.

[Alfred Borden]

Ok, I lied, I read a bit more >_>

My experience with Peacebringer is that he always finds something to pick up on, so the fact he didn't find anything here is strange.
[...]
Finally moves, and the vote is pretty useless. He doesn't push like I'd expect him to, he just kinda sits on an easy target (you make yourself look that way because of posting style, kanye) and then later moves to a different one. Replace out was weird for the reasons ooba noted.

I'm remembering his play in Wingate Mansion again and there might be something to the idea of him playing to his scum meta. In that game, he just basically focused on Generic for being "too overly defensive" or something like that and he didn't move his vote anywhere from that. I think Generic was the biggest wagon at the time he threw that vote down too so he might've just been going after someone he perceived to be an easy target and couldn't find any other to latch onto after the Generic wave died down. I'm honestly just frustrated that he's both not in this game anymore and that his recent meta is so scarce (I still have this weird feeling that the replace out tell Shadoweh brought up might actually be a thing). The slot's just a blank slate for me speckled with a bunch of weird, head scratching things that look bad but not so confident is scummy.

[Alfred Borden]

I ended up falling asleep on the couch when I got back ;_;
I'm still here albeit less lucid than before.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
this is what I leave for you all wrt stupendous

I took a look at these two games and the very first thing I noticed is that he tends to keep his activity way up as town and not really so much as scum. The big marker for me is that he's very cheeky / confident as town (he's not afraid to talk shit like he did here in #275) and that he tends to get way more involved in argument with other players (his early back and forth with Smoker in that town game is a good example) and he's also much more persistent with his questioning. In that scum game, he spent most of his posting posturing about activity and there's much more of an emphasis on self defense than genuine scumhunting. Actually, looking at these games makes me more worried about him -- his activity hasn't been great, he hasn't been as engaged here as he was in that town game, and there just plain hasn't been as much persistence / aggression coming from him (though I wonder how much of this is Large Game Syndrome).

Did you read those games and if so do you agree or disagree?

[Alfred Borden]

{SpyreX, Zdenek, The Alchemist, AGar, Goat on a Raft, Garruk Relentless}

this is pretty much my kill group in order

Disagree completely with Goat and Garruk (as in, I'll be pretty surprised if both of them turn out to be scum, especially CDB's slot given what I know of his meta) and I'm leaning town on Zdenek. Give me a moment to pull up the games after I finish catching up here. The Alchemist likely isn't scum either given who he replaced and who I think he is (I'm like 90% sure it's not Syryana).

P-edit: Aside from the superficial CES stuff, what about the Glass Towers references (that definitely seems like something only he would cook up)?

[Alfred Borden]

^P-edit was directed at Tierce, sorry.

[Alfred Borden]

Well, I have no idea what Glass Towers means specifically but it seemed to me like it's the kind of goofy obscure remark / nickname CES tends to give out in his own peculiar trolly way *shrug*

I'll take a look at the time zone stuff when I'm done reading the thread.

[Alfred Borden]

Oh no doubt about it if that slot's still Syryana it's very likely scum but I still need to actually figure out if it's him or not.

[Alfred Borden]

VOTE: Benmage

This day feels all wrong. I no longer like any of the wagons. I want to go in a totally opposite direction.

I want a lynch like on the 2nd day of the Balto invitational, to go to a place where no one particularly looks or scrutinizes. I don't remember Benmage playing particularly towny. I'm just reminded of the wire.

Uh as someone who was also in The Wire and was fooled by him in that game, no. Just no.

Empire. You have two posts to convince me you are Town. I'm done with this lurky BS, it's getting worse everyday, and Friday and Saturday are past. Where are your thoughts about the game?

Sorry but no. I don't have to convince you of anything when it's readily apparent from my posts that I'm pretty damn obvtown in this game and you of all people should know my posting habits better than most others (especially in hydras). My thoughts on the game have largely remained unchanged (except a few reads have gotten stronger like kanye and ooba after doing some meta work). I'm starting to get the same vibe that others are getting about Too Many Townreads which makes me think something weird is going on here.

That's not necessarily a scum list, though I do think that Spyrex and Elle have a really good chance at flipping scum, but that's my people I would lynch list. Basically I just feel better about other people being town than I do them.

Fair enough, though we'll agree to disagree on kanye and ooba. I really do want to hear your thoughts on SpyreX and elleheathen though.

[Alfred Borden]

I need to lie down because I'm not feeling well at the moment but a cursory check of CES's posting times (EST is being used here as that's my time zone) reveals that he tends to post very late at night (3-5 AM) or mid afternoon-ish (11AM-5PM)

[Alfred Borden]

So it turns out I have a stomach virus. Ugh.

Nacho, I don't have time to talk in depth about CDB or Natirasha, but I encourage you to look at their games. Really don't think CDB especially would have the balls to have posted some of the stuff.

Unvote, vote: The Alchemist

This being Syryana = this needs to die.

[Alfred Borden]

Yep.
Sorry Empire.
UNVOTE: The Alchemist

[Alfred Borden]

Elleheathen is Still Town.
I'm going to feel really bad about that one if it's wrong, but I don't think it is.

[Alfred Borden]

Well I am around and will continue to check in. Empire has been sick / busy and won't be

[Alfred Borden]

Empire here just checking in, need to regroup big time after this flip. Hoping to get a good PoE working...looked over kanye and ooba over Night and I'm fairly sure both are town after that flip (assuming SpyreX was factional scum like I think he was). Will explain in the morning as well as go through more people.

[Alfred Borden]

Here's a more detailed look at what I have w.r.t. kanye / ooba / Shadoweh / Zdenek. I'll be doing more over the course of the next couple of days.

Kanye's mainly due to PeaceBringer's early attack on him. From what I remember seeing of him in Wingate Mansion and the short Antihero Mafia game, he's not a big busser and he tends to go after people he views as easy targets on weak reasoning which fits his attack on kanye on D1 to a T (basically a weak tunnel due to kanye's "wagon hopping"). I also definitely feel like he would have bussed SpyreX (especially after the hammer) rather than insist that the slot was town all the way up until post-hammer, especially given that a big portion of his reasoning for insisting that the slot was town was based on a predecessor a number of people found dubious (#2555 in particular). For some reason I thought there was a lot more here in terms of interactions with that slot but going over his ISO there isn't as much as I originally thought -- what's there is still town though.

PeaceBringer doesn't really talk much about ooba except to mention to quadz in #443 that nothing about his ISO is scummy. However, I really liked that ooba brought up those points about PeaceBringer's replace out starting in #2090 as I really don't think he'd have brought up that issue and ran with it as that slot's scumbuddy, especially given that he does tend to be somewhat conservative with early game bussing in large games from what I remember going through his meta. Also, something minor, but one of the very few concrete things displaced said while he was around was that he didn't understand the ooba wagon in #1405 something like 4 days before deadline. Given the timing and the little effort he did to push that lynch away, I think he was saying that to look town after that potential mislynch went through.

Shadoweh was another player (and I think the first off the top of my head) who drew attention to the weirdness of PeaceBringer's replace out which again is something I don't think she'd have brought up as a scum partner. From what I remember, in games like Wingate Mansion and ADwD, she didn't really have a problem with bussing at all and feel like she'd have committed harder to it than she did here (softly suspecting PeaceBringer but then railing against the SpyreX wagon, going to far as to call it terrible in twilight in #2993). Weaker read than the two above, but I'm leaning towards her not being scum with SpyreX either.

On Tierce's request, I took a look at Zdenek: he was also one of the first to point out PeaceBringer's replace out which bodes well for him (albeit it was for a weird, Zdenek-y reason). However, the main thing that does make me think he's town is the last minute vote onto Zdenek -- it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for Zdenek to unvote SpyreX and vote Alchemist long after the latter's wagon had deflated if Zdenek / SpyreX are bussing (takes the wind out of any sort of credibility he'd be hoping to gain considering both players had been pushing each other all day).

[Alfred Borden]

I think I know what Safety's trying to say but I will wait with Great Anticipation.

[Alfred Borden]

Prideandjoy, I think the Miller claim is genuine.

I agree, the miller claim that we lynched on D1 and flipped town was very genuine.

P-edit: god fucking dammit Tierce I hate you so much.

[Alfred Borden]

Looking solely at day 1VCA, ooba and safetydance need scrutiny. Their wagons were above 10 according to the vcs the mod posted. There was no counterwagon on Amrun, which suggests it was heavily scum pushed. On day three my slot was wagoned with Spyrex and spyrex was scum. That suggests scum was pushing my wagon.

I'll wait 'til you're done before saying anything else but are you suggesting there was no scum on the SpyreX wagon? What do you think the Alchemist wagon from the end of the last Day phase?

Is Tierce town?

Yes.

[Alfred Borden]

Bordempire - how strongly do you feel about a town prideandjoy read? Remember in wingate the way peacebringer went after generic when he and Mara were fighting and generic was saying that Mara was scum? Will you look back at that and then look at how he went after kk when kk was going after prideandjoy? Am I smoking crack here because it felt oddly similar,

I'm about to head to bed but are you talking about how PB ended up chainsaw defending the hell out of Marangal in that game? Yeah, I could see how it could be similar to what he did in this game, but I'd have to double check tomorrow. I'm mostly just really bothered by the huge flatline from the P&J slot at this point.

[Alfred Borden]

I woke up just now all excited because I thought Safety was going to have clarified his night action but he didn't and now I am crying really hard IRL.

Oh Nacho remind me to talk to you about Garruk when I get a chance to look back at something.

They're still scum?

When you get time, I want to talk to you about this as I'm reading them as town (though right now I'm collecting some meta data to help firm this read up).

[Alfred Borden]

I'll be around tomorrow.

[Alfred Borden]

I'm about to head out to a weekend of Halloween party celebrations but I'm tired of awkwardly waiting for Safety to clarify his Night action and the dude's at L-2 by my count. I really don't think that dude is scum. He's obstinate, annoying, and uncooperative but the dude is just not mafia. I'm on my phone right now so I can't link stuff but just imagine that I linked to that nice, big meta analysis of him I did D1 that shows he plays exactly like this as town. I'll be back to regularly scheduled wallposting soon.

[Alfred Borden]

SD's claimed actions have all been falsifiable.
Does anyone want to explain to me some scenarios where him being scum causes derping of the term ninja?
And his DGAF Index is pretty high.

I'm going to try and recover my posting to good-mode again.

[Alfred Borden]

Long weekend, hung over, going out again tonight, will catch up in here as well as continue the analysis I've been wanting to do for a while, there are a lot of commas in this sentence.

[Alfred Borden]

Sorry for the absence. Just got caught up with the thread and I'm not going to waste a whole lot of space regurgitating what has been said except to say that I agree with almost every word in ooba's #3522 (yes, even the first half of it about how you should actually Read the Thread, Titus). Basically, you're out of your goddamn mind if you think we should pass up an opportunity to further cripple the scums with a third Night of no kills. Even if she's somehow lying about her role, the risk of losing only one of us is absolutely worth it, especially if we lynch scum today.

bordenmpire - I still want to talk to you about Prideandjoy.

What about? My thoughts on the slot haven't really changed except the concern that I might be wrong on my early townread of them has grown exponentially each time I catch up on this thread and see nothing from that slot.

Actually...I just remembered you brought up that thing about PeaceBringer chainsaw defending Marangal in Wingate Mansion and potentially doing the same thing here. Looking over P&J's interactions with that slot here, PB ends up strongly suspecting kanye in #121 for attacking that slot early on which does remind me of his MO in that game. But what do you think about posts like #139 and #147? I don't remember PB taking such a blatant buddying-type approach in that game. As far as Spy goes, he just kinda lists P&J among his townreads but there's nothing else (I have a tinfoil theory that one of his buddies is in that grouping due to him saying "I am super, super confident about the town grouping there. At MOST, and thats a most, there's 1 scum there" as I got the vibe that he was leaving the option open to bus later on down the road by saying that).

I don't know if that made any sense filtered through my hangover-afflicted mind but that's what I have on the slot.

Also, do you still think elleheathen is scum? I was getting really worried that I might be wrong on that one too but the claim reaffirmed it for me.

I still have to get working on the rest of my analysis so I should be continuing with it tonight. Of the wagons up right now, definitely prefer quadz as he's basically completely flatlined since ooba's case, but I definitely want to get work done (I plan on proposing a town bloc at the end of all this).

[Alfred Borden]

I'm definitely not town reading Elle, and I'm not sure how the claim makes her town. She says she was convinced tierce was scum, but there's absolutely no indication of that at all. What I'm seeing as lacking in this game is a sense of paranoia and uncertainty and a lack of real involvement. On day two, Garruck hinted that tierce was town due to role results and Elle didn't budge then, in fact she says it wasn't until day three that she started seeing her as town. She asks a bunch of us what our read on tierce is though we've all made it clear that we think she's town throughout the game. I'm not going to worry about it today though.

Fair point about her read on Tierce, but I don't remember her having a sense of paranoia / uncertainty in her town games (at least to any noteworthy degree - I generally think those two qualities are something that comes from town generally though YMMV on certain players). There's also something minor I noticed too: what do you think about her apparently not knowing what her ability actually did? I think her buddies almost surely would have made that known to her and, while I think it's fakeable, I think the way her claim came about felt natural.

[Alfred Borden]

I need to do my own thinking about this claim but general question: is it site meta here to check your null reads over your scumreads (the latter is what I've typically done offsite)? Because I recall quadz suspecting ooba pretty heavily and see that name as a pretty glaring omission among his investigations.

[Alfred Borden]

This claim implies pretty strongly that SD is scum if it's true, so I will probably oppose lynching anyone other than the two of them. Unless some really attractive wagon that I desperately want anyway pops up.

Also, I don't know shit about balance so why is this the case?

[Alfred Borden]

Well this got messy.
Elle's claim timing / behavior is a truly impressive :shenanigan: if she's scum, so there's that.

SD already proved his vending by targeting MC.
MC, did you definitely receive fruit from SD (as opposed to someone else?)
A full roleblocker with a fruit vending ability is possible. MC fakeclaiming fruit-reception is also possible.
I can imagine scum deciding not to claim full roleblocker.
This line is at least consistent and explains the ninjaderps.

[Alfred Borden]

Skimmed the game, don't have time for real content tonight. Just wanted to say that I don't think we should defer the Safety/quadz issue.

Also, since someone brought up the flavor, does whoever the dude quadz claimed make even a bare minimum of sense as a macho cop? Asking this primarily because *reasons*

Bordempire - where was that work of awesomeness (tm)? I was looking forward to seeing who you had as a proposed town block. I hope it has ooba in it.

Working on it. It's been taking me a lot longer than expected to get through all of the 2000000 or so people in the game (though I did manage to do 4 people this morning somehow) and I want this all to come out at the same time. I'm almost done though so the whole thing will be posted tomorrow.

I already posted my thoughts on ooba here and he's definitely in the bloc.

[Alfred Borden]

Sorry for the relative inactivity from me this Day phase, been working on these posts + the job search has been kicking my ass. Anyway, I’ll be posting these up in chunks and would appreciate commentary as they go (I think forming a town bloc at this point is essential given the hole the scums are in especially if Titus is telling the truth about her role). I’m not going to do Tammy or Tierce unless there are still nonbelievers who really want me to explain why those two slots are town just want to say that I have a lot of experience reading them and have hydra'd with them several times and I'm very confident those two are town.

Benmage:

I’ll be honest, my read on him is very largely meta based and not so much on his interactions with PeaceBringer / displaced / SpyreX (everything I said about his play in #906 still applies). As far as the way he interacted with his partners go, I remember that in The Wire he tended to put forth passive suspicion on absta when they were both alive but never really pushed him very strongly for a lynch. Benmage doesn’t mention PeaceBringer at all while he was around or even when he was being discussed after D1 which is oddly enough I think a point against him being Chaos-aligned as I think Benmage would have said at least *something* about him to distance in some fashion. He also only mentions that he’s surprised that Spy’s been drawing votes like he has. Personally, I think he’d have absolutely bussed there given the quick hammer setup and tried to milk as much credibility as humanly possible. Overall, still very confident in Benmage being town.

Nautilius:

This one is very tricky to explain. If I had to guess, I’d say the slot is still town based on activity / effort level / a few other meta related things but I’m getting increasingly paranoid here. The first major time Nacho mentions PeaceBringer is in his case in #2536. Normally, I’d call someone town based on cases like this but I know Nacho has a reputation for bussing (no, I don’t take #3029 at face value). The mollie early death bothered me when I remembered it happened but I remember she was reading him as town right up until she died (with some tinges of paranoia admittedly). As far as Spy goes, he only mentions Nacho once to tell him to “believe” that Goat on a Raft is town and puts him on his town list – so basically nothing that’s really unfakeable. Basically, I think the slot’s town but the interactions don’t jump out at me immediately and go “oh this should clear Nacho from being scum.” Oh and I really want to know exactly how much Ellibereth has put into this game and where he’s been.

AGar:

The first post that really stood out to me was #2564 in which he basically insists that the town come to a consensus between himself and SpyreX despite feeling that he’s a bad lynch. Given that this happened 6 days before deadline, I think this might be a point against AGar being Chaos-aligned as he’d be basically locking a lynch between himself and his buddy with time to spare for the town to move elsewhere. I think as scum he’d have waited a bit longer to see where the town current was going rather than jump the gun. Overall, it’s hard for me to explain, but his entire approach reminds me of when I’m in a game with a player I hugely respect (tending to give the player more leeway due to reputation).

[Alfred Borden]

Just checking in. Tierce, I read your post and I'm down with that, I'll update the list with quadz stuffs when I wake up tomorrow.

[Alfred Borden]

Ok, so the PoE work I was doing basically led to these dudes being included in the town bloc I had proposed:

kanye
ooba
AGar (want to talk to Nacho and ooba about this one though)
Benmage
Tierce
Tammy
SafetyDance (post quadz flip addition off the top of my head)
Shadoweh

Nowhere near enough to narrow things down significantly but with a second scum flip, this should be pretty easy.

[Alfred Borden]

Hmm, there was something else I wanted to talk about and I can't remember it for the life of me (this post is mostly a note for me to go and remember).

[Alfred Borden]

Because they disagree, I want to see where they're coming from on it, and honestly I'm more willing to trust their opinions on things more than my own at this point.

[Alfred Borden]

Nacho's one of the dudes I've been thinking of putting up there after the quadz flip, I just need to reread to make sure.

[Alfred Borden]

But I'm kind of confused why you want his opinion when he's not firmly in your bloc.

Because let's face it he's been owning me reads-wise and at this point I think I'm just being a big paranoid baby by not putting him there right this moment.

[Alfred Borden]

Okay. Jumping down rabbit hole aborted.

implying u aren't going to do this anyway.

Also, what do you think about the names on the list I put up?

[Alfred Borden]

This + not being in your town block makes me sad and angry and confused.

would u bus both spyrex and quadz after 2 nights of no deaths? be honest w/ me pls

Uh, in all honesty though, I still think AGar looks way better after these two flips (I went over some stuff on my phone while I was bored in a meeting and I remember seeing some stuff that made it look as though quadz-scum was encouraging AGar-town's push on ooba-town - should be able to explain this in more detail when I'm back after an evening out) and I think his belief that he stopped the nightkill on N3 by blocking Titus is pretty damn town (remember the DTMaster thing from Xenologue? I think it's a similar thing here).

[Alfred Borden]

I do think that Nacho is a good addition. He definitely would bus two partners back to back if he wanted to and thought it would be fun to do, so that isn't a good reason to think he's town, but he feels town.

yeah but woudl he bus two partners after a lack of two night kills?

idk do you think im approaching this the werong way? i feel like scum would avoid bussing given their dire situation (though i stilol need to drive the conclusions from this).

(sober posting when I am aawake).

[Alfred Borden]

Forgive me if I'm retreading but:
Can we use the split doublevote to hammer 2 wagons at the same time?

[Alfred Borden]

How does Benmage have 236 posts??
I get that he's super cheeky but beyond that he's Just There.
He probably shouldn't be getting the E.

Elle should though.
That would be a pretty Excellent Spyrex Bus.
In addition to Excellent Claiming Planz.
In addition to being Previously and Otherwise Town.

If there's one person I've actually read enough times to be confident on it's her.

[Alfred Borden]

I've been town and roleblocked on the night of a nokill twice. One time it was an intentional nokill and the other it was a doc-protect.
I liked Zdenek.
Zdenek helped lynch Spyrex scum and unvoted at the last moment after lynch was pretty much decided and stuck himself on an alternative wagon which would be awfully anti-credit-seeking for a scum.
I like Titus.
Titus helped run up Quadz scum, though more as a chosen alternative to himself than as a chosen from birth to die so that's not as awesome of itself.
I am against a Titus lynch.

I am not against a P&J lynch.

Also, SD scum would require some significant gambits.
Also SD has been probtown or better since D1.

[Alfred Borden]

I did say I was going to try and recover my posting to good mode didn't I
I still have quite a bit of catching up to do.

[Alfred Borden]

I'm caught up!
Well, on happenings anyway.
P&J is my lowest-remorse scum; the rest will be harder.
Tier 2 for me is Kanye / MC but they're both ishy.

@Titus: Okay. Thanks.
@PnJ: K. 1v1 SF Mid no runes no crow?
@Tierce: Alfred's been worrying me as well. They pop in every once in a while to make some meta post then go back to lurking.

Empire has to deal with stuff. I am some combination of lazy / bursty and having to do stuff.
We shall grace you with more of our Presence tomorrow.


Wheeeeeeee!
VOTE: Pride and Joy

[Alfred Borden]

Where are you again, Empire? What's your read on PrideandJoy?

His read is I'm allowed to hammer him

[Alfred Borden]

That's a good list.
This is a simple decision.
VOTE: Goat on a Raft

[Alfred Borden]

[Alfred Borden]

Empire's gone (permanently) at this point.
I am not hammer-powered.
I saw we'd reached the foregone conclusion point, didn't disagree, and decided to proceed.
Twice.
Didn't notice Agar hadn't posted yesterday.
I'll see you guys in Massachusetts.

[Alfred Borden]

Nothing. I've wanted to lynch it all of those days.

I'm not talking at you specifically.. I'm referring to the fact that after 6 days of the same shit... suddenly a TA lynch is cool... that doesn't raise an eyebrow for you?

If you're going to argue sucking is a towntell, kindly take a hike instead. I have seen Syryana play town and this is not it.

This is sidestepping my question, of where is the scum logic in what TA is doing...???

@Titus, pretty much samething. Yes we want TA lynched. But what do you think of TA lynch suddenly being viable D7... when TA's been doing the same dung for so long? No paranoia that he's mislynch bait whatsoever??? What do you think is the reasoning for TA's troll behavior?

This is a very difficult line of thought to fake.

A Brief History of Benmage:
Get very genuinely angry with Thor over "I am miller therefore conftown" drive him all the way to lynch claim success even when townflipped.
'SD is hilariously obvtown' post was town.
Let's lynch TA (continued efforts for long period).
As of today he wants to lynch me, talks about me being unlynchable later.
A smattering of "disagreeing with me is stupid" and "I don't even care if we lose" type stuff.

He definitely reads individually as town.
Relative read & structure read will have to wait for me to load this game into my brain harder.

[Alfred Borden]

In retrospect rule B3 probably would've stopped us from using Goat to doublehammer.
Garruk is interesting for a reason similar to Goat. Not the one from last line.
Garruk What were all your whores go results?

Alchemist has the solid fact going for him that he didn't coin a scumbuddy and use that to kill Tammy or SD or me.
If he and Tierce put on a show, that would be a WOW.
Anyhow, there is a lot of role information in play at this point.

AB - TOWN DRAGON; not powered by hammers; failed a song; did I claim anything else?
Tammy - Old-but-strong town. Loverized Syryana and fullclaimed to him
Tierce - Extremely strong townread haven't full reread because continued towning. Stuff!
Alchemist - Dayplay could be scum, but not horrible. Commuted to escape loving and became alch; coin.
SD - Meera Reed; vending tracking blocking.
Agar - Grey Wind; roleblocked Titus on a nokill night.
Garruk - Tyrion Lannister - hated, wherewhores, motivator gold power
Titus - Lightning rod
Amrun - Sansa ???
Thor - Hound Miller

I'm going to sleep (WTF HOW 7 AM) but I'll continue tomorrow.

[Alfred Borden]

Llama's list is missing lots of things because he was too tired to finish.
Hence "I'll continue tomorrow"

[Alfred Borden]

It's been way more then a day though. Enough is enough.

##Vote: Alfred Borden

Failing catchup promises is a core part of my play when I'm not Being Awesome.

I haven't been at all vague SD.
Shadoweh asked me to claim D2-3 or so after a seduction error and I said I was the biggest dragon.

[Alfred Borden]

Garruk is interesting for a reason similar to Goat. Not the one from last line.

This went nowhere btw.

Kanye can stay in the ocean of probtowns for the Quadz wagon reboot.

[Alfred Borden]

Nautilius
Tammy
Tierce
Alfred
kanye
Cephrir
Titus
SafetyDance
ooba

That leaves:
Benmage
Elleheathen
Shadoweh
TA
Garruk
MC

The people in the second group have solid arguments for them being town too.
Garruk's "I thought my motivate could double the scum nightkill and therefore when I used it on Tierce to the tune of no deaths N1 she became town" is a heck of a WAT.
It's weird but definitely possible from town; from scum it's really really hard to buy.
Apparently I need to look at the quadz-reboot context.

[Alfred Borden]

Tammy you and Nacho rock.
I'll be driving all day tomorrow but after that we'll see if I can out-obvtown Empire.
My powers of towniness range beyond adorable arrogance .

On voting behavior:
I hammer obvious-lynch-for-today wagons a lot. Think Yoloville.
Non-vote day was mostly a result of not reaching a joint let's lynch this person.

VOTE: Benmage

[Alfred Borden]

Let's be fair Nacho; if there's one read I can legitimately say I :haven't: been lazy on it's Elle.
I kept coming back to her because she fits the profile, for lack of a better term, but I got a townread every time.

[Alfred Borden]

She had the seal of approval as of my last disappearance; I will want to check again though.

Re - Benmage:
Benmage has a strong scumgame.
I see a lot of hard to fake posts but no hard evidence for Benmage town. His bestest towntells are missing.
Benmage-scum makes things make more sense to me.

Benmage, if you're town in this game then tell me why.

[Alfred Borden]

P:edit wow

I want the Alchemist voters to talk more about his actions and what they think happened there.

Is the Alchemist scum who had an extra kill ability and decided to give it to town despite having a couple good targets?
In particular Tierce claimed to have Awesome Planz for the shot, so the notion that some kind of "none of our names are out there" logic was in effect is pretty eh.
Or you can take the Tierce / Alchemist put on a show angle, which would be better if Tierce weren't Certifiable Town.

Some kind of "I think this is what happened in scumland that led to the above" from Elle, SD, Ceph / the others would be good.

[Alfred Borden]

I looked at Elle's scummeta quite a bit during round ?? of reading her, so I understand what you're getting at in terms of having a wide faking range particularly for bubbliness.
She still came across town though. And the "I need to be killed" was really really clever if she's scum.

I'd guess Benmage, Kanye / MC, maybe Shadoweh or TA. I'm still getting back in though.
I think TA isn't a bad vote off dayplay but I do want to hear more "what went on in this scums' head" because it's a very popular wagon without a lot of rationalization.

Ooba, I will refrain from hammering.

[Alfred Borden]

Well that's good.
VOTE: Kanye
L-1

[Alfred Borden]

Yeah, I will certainly grant Kanye a good-game badge.

Your role is probably ~ as claimed but that doesn't mean you're town.

[Alfred Borden]

Ooba said the daycop came from unlocking something, so it wasn't that weird for it to come up d6.

Sorry for not doing anything today but I'll be around tomorrow.

[Alfred Borden]

Fine. I believe Ooba.

Benmage + Nacho is sufficient.
I'd normally hammer about now (Garruk is still hated, yes?) but somebody else can.

[Alfred Borden]

I'm not going to just ignore hard claimed hard guilties unless the target is a STRONG townread or the claimer is OBVIOUSLY lying.
The only people I'd consider lynching today are Benmage and Garruk.
Of the missing Benmage town things, "I am confirmed town because of selfmeta" has finally shown up.
Scum nokill N5 -> Agar shot N6 due to Garruk being RBed N5 makes sense.
Garrukscum claiming all his actions except his kill makes sense.
Garruk using gold primarily to look town makes sense.
Garruk's ISO being a scum ISO makes sense.
This is a dual-flavor guilty and there isn't anything important left to decide today.

I'd prefer to have the gratuitous pieces removed from the box before I continue working on the puzzle.
But here's where I am now:

Town-by-mod
I'm town.

Town-by-SUPERPROTOWN
Tierce is probably town.
Nacho is probably town.
With a scumlynch today town is doing fine; yes I'd like to have played better but we're not in "ONE OF THE SUPERTOWNS MUST BE SCUM" territory.

Town-by-reading/rolesoundstown
Elleheathen is still probably town.
Her getting replaced nullifies the scum-trailing-off pattern and I like Magua so far.
SD is probably town.
Ooba is probably town.
Shadoweh is probably town.
Titus is probably town
Benmage is probably town

That leaves
Cephrir
MC
TA
Garruk

Is this the answer? Lets start with Garruk.

[Alfred Borden]

*let's

[Alfred Borden]

VOTE: Garruk
He isn't hated anymore Titus.

[Alfred Borden]

VOTE: Benmage
You Die Today.

[Alfred Borden]

VOTE: Benmage
You Die Today.

[Alfred Borden]

Benmage does not belong to the category of people who get to hardfakeclaim1v1 and then be allowed to live.
Also, he is scum.

[Alfred Borden]

Some roles become a lot less useful when claimed.
I'm usually in favor of early massclaims but this isn't a game we can straightforwardly rolelogic to lynch better.
So basically all it will accomplish is telling scum which players have doctory / otherwise useful powers.
Anyone who has alignment relevant role info is welcome to claim it; otherwise I don't approve.

[Alfred Borden]

It's not like there have been a ton of nightkills for me to get hit by.
Scum probably even think I'm lynchable.

[Alfred Borden]

Benmage might be town thanks to the Tales of Benmage and Faraday, which sucks.
People need to let me win them the game instead of aborting everyone's clearthinking with false roleclaims.
I'm pretty sure more than 60% of my town losses are due to either town fakeclaiming or false innocent results.

ANYWAY.
We are still going to win this game.
There are 8 days until deadline.

Nacho is still town.
Magua is still town.

TA and MC are not bad lynch choices and one or both of them ought to flip scum.
I will try to figure out which one will do it harder tomorrow.

[Alfred Borden]

@Magua:
My Proficiency would look a lot better without 2 faked guilties a 1v1 a fast scumhammer and a deadlined lynch on Thor.
On Garruk we had Nacho's roleblock-nokill on top of Benmage's claim. I can't not make that play.
Obvious lynches get a fact check and a hammer or a STOP THIS, not a full-game solving session.

We didn't use our vote much because we wanted to agree on votes but failed at schedule overlap.

TA, how hard is your guarantee that the name you were given is not in the setup?

[Alfred Borden]

Meh. I don't want to unvote Benmage.
Scum don't go as low as pretending to have whined at the mod very often but Benmage is special.
Scum Benmage can claim that guilty, blame others for all problems, and self vote?
He comes up with it in the wake of Ooba fakeclaiming.
Meh. I don't buy that as :antics: from scum.

VOTE: Messiah Complex
I can Czar it. Or we can do it today.

TA, Can you be specific about what information you received (or didn't) from the mod regarding your kill attempt?

[Alfred Borden]

Czar as in make it happen.

[Alfred Borden]

Nacho is town because without him this game is a full on lurkfest (worth noting Nachoscum is very comfortable in a lurkfest).
There were a lot of 'well Nacho just towned really hard again' points in his 9005842354 excellent posts this game.
I have never seen a scumbag indefatigably attack a game like that.

Magua is town because every time I reread Elleheathen because her place in the game felt like a good one to look for scum, I got repeated 'eh this post probably did not come from scum' pings.
The "you must kill me!" did not hurt at all either.
His vote for me is frustrating but antagonizing your primary defender isn't good scumplay unless all other lynch options are buddies (in which case Yay! anyhow).

I still think Messiah is the surest scumflip.
I'm driving all day tomorrow but I may be able to phone in occasionally.

TA what information did you get about the result of your kill?

Almost half our total output happened in a QT with Tierce. I know what name she submitted and why.

[Alfred Borden]

On phone cant check precise nights
Balerion the black dread
End of d1 dragon rider tammy failed
D2 dragon rider tierce success
Tierce knows empire better than anyone. she wasnt happy about our activity but certified us town with way more info than you guys have.
Also we ate amrun corpse and learned of Hes a Monster
If Joffrey baratheon is in the setup hes scum with means of concealing identity and 1shot death immunity
Shared info with tierce so she could coin
Thought garruk and someone else potential joffreys due to lannister gold

hhae another ability im not claiming because It can still help and is best unknown

[Alfred Borden]

Dragon rider neighborizes.
I have it again today.

[Alfred Borden]

Im tempted to targwt shadoweh so she can ride us all nifht long after all

[Alfred Borden]

Your setup spec is asstastic
None of my abilities are exceptionally powerful.
Lots of neighborizers is entirely reasonable and its very likely at least one of ceph or shadoweh is scum aanywy

Driving chi to boston will clarify in around 8 hours
If I lose one rider I can get a new one

[Alfred Borden]

I wanted to try and get a joffrey claim out of a meighbor but didnt e mm want info to die with me and lynch imminent

[Alfred Borden]

Empire and I having trouble getting on at the same time to decide who to lynch isn't news.
And we liked Spyrex for scum, or at least I did.

My hammers were on obviously-going-to-happen lynches.
Kanye was always more an Empire townread and got guiltied.
Garruk wouldn't have been my choice going into the day but had 2 different guilties on him.
It would've been awesome had I somehow fixed those days and I should've waited for Agar to claim his result (though in this game it prob lynches Garruk) but I'm more displeased about missing D1 / D2.

Anyway, I have 3 abilities (all active):
Dragon Rider - On days where I don't currently have a dragon rider I can target somebody; they become my dragon rider at beginning of night and we get an anytime-QT.
Dragon's Feast - Once during the game I can consume the corpse of a dead player and learn one of their abilities. Further attempts to target that dead player will fail. Requires a dragon rider.
DRAGON FIRE - Not claiming this yet because it's less useful claimed. Requires a dragon rider.

Actions:
D1 - try to Dragon Rider Tammy, fail, reason unknown.
D2 - Dragon Rider Tierce, succeed.
N2 - Tierce makes a comment about a role quest she likely can't achieve thanks to dead Sansa probably having the hairnet required (she didn't tell us she was vanillized until later); we decide to eat Sansa because she didn't get to claim and perhaps it can help Tierce. This succeeds and we find out Amrun had He's a Monster (described earlier). We were pretty pumped about this result, obviously.
D3 - Mentioned Joffrey to Tierce. When the coin came up, it made most sense for Tierce to take it. Probably should've been us in retrospect but meh.

Rest of actions are DRAGON FIRE.

[Alfred Borden]

The next Day I was informed Joffrey Baratheon doesn't exist in the game.

Eh not surprising at this point.

[Alfred Borden]

told you so.

Lynch confscum Alfred.

TA said something about Joffrey not being in the setup a while ago, so that's not even a surprise?
I thought he might have been assuming that given kill failure while not knowing about the deathproof, but I guess not.

How many scum are alive? Why would scum need fervor when dominating this game.

FARADAY

you suck.

This is the Opposite of How it Works.
Whining and spouting blatantly false information don't help anything.

[Alfred Borden]

The only times I can think of that I've had real RAWR as scum were at the ends of games I was winning.
You're wrong, unpleasant to play with, and you suck at everything except not getting lynched which you're only good at because you're willing to go lower than everyone else in whining and insults and not caring how much you're hurting town.

This game is not over.
If we lynch correctly today, we are in business.
If my role and one other both succeed, there is even potential for an additional lynch.

[Alfred Borden]

Sorry for getting poisonous but it's incredibly frustrating to drag you around after you fakeclaim to get town lynched and then complain about everybody else.

[Alfred Borden]

Merry Christmas all.

I'm still not scum MC. Hopefully you are.

Alfred what part of that claim has to do with the song, were you talking about trying to neighbourize? And unless you can't neighbourize married people, do you not have a reason for that to have failed? Actually it probably won't be hard to tell if this is accurate based on attitude. One moment!
Alright I see slight hintage that you understood what me and Tammy were talking about early. So question since she didn't tell us, what was her role, and what were her reads going into today? She probably told you to vote Cephrir didn't she? Why did you start off with Benmage?

The song was "A Whole New World" but we're a dragon instead of a carpet and the world is frying, simmering, splendid.
It's not role-related other than indicating attempt to neighborize.
Still have no idea why neighborizing Tammy failed.
Our QT quieted down a lot when Empire left; I'm not that good of a neighbor
Tierce's last posts were on 12/6 and about breaking down Ooba's claim.
She didn't tell us much more about her role than I've already said; finding the hairnet was part of a quest and she didn't see any reason to say what the reward was beyond it being good.

[Alfred Borden]

I neighborized Nacho and it worked. Ellibereth posted in the QT! Something interesting was revealed.
If I promised to neighborize you Shadoweh I totally forgot and am sorry.
Was my neighborize power really in any doubt anyway? How else would I have known the name Tierce submitted?
If it becomes necessary I can do a rundown of the posts in there, but it would be pretty boring for me.

[Alfred Borden]

@Shadoweh:
Neighborizing somebody who dies is fine. I didn't think about that.
I assumed the vote on me came from Benmage. If it's from Ooba, IDK why.

I'm driving all day tomorrow but the following day I'll be back to normal.

[Alfred Borden]

VOTE: The Alchemist

I have significant reservations about lynching everyone else, so I'd prefer to do this one today.
I don't expect I'll ever want to lynch Nacho or SD.
I don't think Magua is scum; Elleheathen was town for claim and townposts and Magua's play so far (particularly the coldfeet episode) hasn't hurt that.
Benmage, much as I want him to be scum, will probably flip town.
Titus, Cephrir, Shadoweh all have very solidly townbelievable dayplay as well.

[Alfred Borden]

Well at least I'm not hated?
That would've made for a pretty panicked day.

[Alfred Borden]

There's no "Expected Ratio"
Goat claimed census taker and flipped town.
3 scum remain.

[Alfred Borden]

Benmage, unvote NOW.
There are a lot of people around.

[Alfred Borden]

I need to reread post Alchemist.
I'm pretty sure I'm at the willing-to-lose-if-wrong point on Nacho-town.
If I'm right about Maguatown and Nacho's right about Cephtown then that leaves Titus, Benmage, and SD, which I can believe in but I really do need to reread.

If we lynch correctly today we are actually in solid shape.

[Alfred Borden]

Scum's plan for today may be "Let Benmage vote Marble and then win."
If Benmage is scum they leave Shadoweh to be the townie who votes me and NK Naut.
And yes, Benmage has done some town-Benmage things.

I'm at work now and I'm going to need more time to think.

[Alfred Borden]

Why am I still alive?

Maybe to protect Cephrir?
Shadoweh is a weird kill pretty much regardless.

[Alfred Borden]

I don't see many options left beyond lynching Benmage and hoping he flips scum.

[Alfred Borden]

I don't see many options left beyond lynching Benmage and hoping he flips scum.

These are things scum say.

I've had the decision on who to lynch taken out of my hands almost EVERY SINGLE DAY this game.
If Benmage somehow DOES turn out to be scum our chances of winning are actually good, but that is unfortunately a big if.