A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?

ooba · Post Post #183 (isolation #0) » Tue Sep 17, 2013 1:49 pm

Wow .. That's a quick 8 pages .. Catching up ..

ooba · Post Post #271 (isolation #1) » Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:21 pm

elleheathen is town

Tierce, Zdenek - look town but unsure of read

Mild scum read
Garruk Relentless
Cephrir
Amrun
Shadoweh

Strong scum read
quadz08
kanye

Vote: Kanye

ooba · Post Post #301 (isolation #2) » Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:55 am

In post 275, Garruk Relentless wrote:Ooba, could you elaborate on your reads?

-SSK

I can't elaborate on any reads - that's my post restriction!

ooba · Post Post #308 (isolation #3) » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:12 am

In post 306, Garruk Relentless wrote:
In post 301, ooba wrote:
In post 275, Garruk Relentless wrote:Ooba, could you elaborate on your reads?

-SSK
I can't elaborate on any reads - that's my post restriction!
But you can obviously quote people, so could you quote what parts of posts give you reads on those players?

I was joking SSK. The reads boil down to 'vibes' when I was reading the game.

ooba · Post Post #331 (isolation #4) » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:10 am

elle wrote:But less about you ability to dredge up a fakeclaim flavor role that would match and more about it being an easy way for me to weigh the merit of the claim and not have to focus on it if it were to mesh up for me.

Thor wrote:Also, seriously, my rolename will help you quantify the validity of the rather normal and pointed claim of 'Miller'?
...
How's that help your read of my roleclaim?

elle wrote:P-Edit: It doesn't.

ooba · Post Post #334 (isolation #5) » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:17 am

In post 330, Thor665 wrote:
Nameclaim: Casso, King of the Seals

No post restrictions?

(Not a serious question)

For what it's worth, I still read elle as town - misguided town and an easy target for a scum mislynch.

ooba · Post Post #338 (isolation #6) » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:36 am

In post 335, Thor665 wrote:Who are the scum pushing her and why would you push a misrep like that on someone you thought was town?

The part "It doesn't" - (a) was either contradictory given her post on the same page (b) or comprehension error on my part - either way worth getting an explanation to set records straight.

- kanyeknowsbest
- ShadowReh who isn't on the wagon but the reaction to the elle's rolefishing was pushing it
I don't feel as strongly about Cephrir and Garruk Relentless as the above.

ooba · Post Post #434 (isolation #7) » Wed Sep 18, 2013 5:18 pm

In post 353, Alfred Borden wrote:
Unvote, vote: ooba

What's this about - why am I scum?

ooba · Post Post #445 (isolation #8) » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:04 pm

In post 441, quadz08 wrote:like seriously, check out ooba's iso

hello post
brief readslist
joke
explanation of joke
post 331, which is confusing at best and a misrep at worst
says he "still" reads elle as town after not mentioning outside of 331
response to question
asks about vote on himself

he has generated no actual content; his only reads were the initial readslist, his townread on elle, and then a couple of scumreads after Thor explicitly asked him to point out some scum for him

- My reads are my content

says he "still" reads elle as town

after not mentioning outside of 331

- elle is the first read on my "initial readslist"

"then a couple of scumreads after Thor explicitly asked him to point out some scum for him"

- This is a misrep that makes it sound like I never mentioned scumreads before this - kanye and Shadow were also mentioned in the "initial readslist" (although Cephrir and Garruk reduced on the scummy meter in the few pages in between)

- AlfredBow has not mentioned me anywhere except for the vote - so wanted to know why he thought I was scummy

ooba · Post Post #456 (isolation #9) » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:59 pm

In post 447, elleheathen wrote:Naked reads always give me a weird vibe when they come without any previous commenting. What strikes me as more odd there is that he has me, of all people, as his only town read in 271.

Doesn't provide anything further on his 'reads' as they are just 'vibes' but these vibes are apparently enough to vote on, just not to elaborate on? Ooba?
In 331, he misreps me by quoting a succession of posting that dubs it down to put me in the worst possible light (I really didn't need help there, yo!) but it's blank, not to mention erases what I am actually answering. When questioned on it, he says it was to 'get an explanation' but doesn't ask a question in the quotes with which to get a reaction.

@Ooba - If I'm your town read, why did you phrase the quotes to paint me as scummy - on top of an accusation of rolefishing on someone who'd already revealed their role? And why do you have me as town?

-

"not to mention erases what I am actually answering."

- so which part were you answering? It still isn't obvious.

-

"@Ooba - If I'm your town read, why did you phrase the quotes to paint me as scummy"

- I've already explained this. Either a self-contradiction on your part or a communication gap on my end - required an explanation. I approach the game like a puzzle to be solved - if there's a small piece that doesn't make sense, I want to see what that's about.

-

"on top of an accusation of rolefishing on someone who'd already revealed their role"

- ??

-

"And why do you have me as town?"

- that's a function of the actual votes on you, the people voting you, other people commenting on your play. Like I said - "easy target". I scumhunt based on interactions - "why X attacked Y?", "why didn't X comment on this?" - this holds true for my other reads as well.

ooba · Post Post #513 (isolation #10) » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:50 am

@Elle:

Wow - I completely missed that. I didn't associate "How's that help your read of my roleclaim?" with "My vote on you is serious now." (even though there's a line space; the brain misses these things at times). This is how I read the entire post:

Spoiler: Thor's original post

- Start off with a question
- Explain why your logic doesn't work
- Reinforce with question again
Thor's accusation of a misrep makes a lot more sense now.

Ah. I guess the wording "rolefishing" was wrong usage on my part since Thor had already claimed Miller - "flavour fishing" then - and flavour fishing is not an accusation as scummy since I've seen both curious and skeptical townies do it.

The last point about me not asking a question; It's not as if you wouldn't have replied irrespective of whether or not I added a "?" at the end.

@Quadz:

- Based on my reads, you knew what I thought on about a quarter of the playlist. Sure you may not have reasoning backing them up but it is content.
-

why does the vote on you matter more?

Because it's a vote on me?

@Nautilius:

Thank you for 473. I still don't have a read on you - but that's the best "defense of ooba" post I've seen in quite a while.
Addn: Slight town read for 484 - exactly what I was thinking after -

"This quadz wagon is lame. ooba is better. elle is town."

- Amrun's voting me? Scroll up to VC - nope.

ooba · Post Post #621 (isolation #11) » Fri Sep 20, 2013 8:49 am

In post 600, Thor665 wrote:Oh posh, you're a 006, you're *way* better than Benmage.

!! Wait so that would make me....

Spoiler:

@Alfred:

I do find Shadow scummy - but I find kanye scummy too - my scum meter didnt get pinged by Shadow so much that I thought I needed to move my vote.

Things that need to happen:
- kanye needs to start posting again
- Those who haven't started playing should; the two posts above mac's were really bad
- I'll need to give this entire game a re-read tomorrow

ooba · Post Post #1098 (isolation #12) » Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:45 am

I couldn't re-read the entire thread during the weekend as I had hoped; I have managed to read the pages in between.

@Tammy, Syryana - Congrats!
@Empire - Congrats too!

Town

Nacho, Syryana {I like what they're doing, reads\thinking is relatable, town posting}
elle {I was sort of losing my faith in elle town and in fact noted "Needs to post more reads" but that Thor vote was very-town}

Not as strong Town

Goat {Goat's suspicious of Shadow; Bottom of Page 38 was nice. Would have been "town" for sure if he had voted Shadow instead of Stupdendous,SafetyDance}
Andrius\Agar {"He knew he wouldn't be able to spend much time in this game - yet opened with that"- Nacho}
Tammy {Probably my weakest "town" slot since I haven't gotten a read yet - but sheeping Syryana}

Neutral+

Thor {Had the vibe of "something being off" from Thor's entrance; I went back and skimmed through his posts in Test of Faith Mafia - didn't look the same - not someone I'd want to lynch today though}
Kanye {That was a good return to the game; liked all his posts in the previous pages}
Amrun {I always have a 'scummy' feeling when reading Amrun though; need to skim through posts in previous games we played together; but interactions, wagons make me think she's town}
Zednek {Vibe}
Cephrir {Vibe + Said somethings in post that I was thinking}
SafetyDance's {Initial reads made no sense whatsoever to me. 870, 874 however resonate to me; As someone who has been accused of a 'random read' playstyle before on D1 - I can see me-town replying with those posts.}

Neutral-

Tierce
MessiahComplex
Alfred's {I didnt like the list in 935}
Garruk {Earlier vibe + Sheeping Syr isn't bad, but two sole posts stating just that rubbed me off as scummy}

Not as strong scum

Quadz {Earlier vibe + Don't like any of the no.2 suspects - Amrun, Goat or Zed}

Scum

Shadoweh {Not sure if Pygmalion but every post of his has been pinging my scumdar}

Unvote. Vote: Shadoweh

ooba · Post Post #1169 (isolation #13) » Tue Sep 24, 2013 5:59 pm

In post 1159, macmollie wrote:I did not like his list of reads but that is mostly cos we were not on it.

Since you feel this way, I've added you to the list.

Spoiler: Reads

Pedit: "##Vote: ooba <--- This vote good until ooba actually replacing out voids legal tender." -> Umm what?

ooba · Post Post #1173 (isolation #14) » Tue Sep 24, 2013 6:30 pm

In post 1172, Tierce wrote:ooba - Why am I a "neutral" read?

You're not - You're a "Neutral-" meaning "leaning scum".

ooba · Post Post #1177 (isolation #15) » Tue Sep 24, 2013 6:52 pm

In post 1175, Tierce wrote:
In post 1173, ooba wrote:
In post 1172, Tierce wrote:ooba - Why am I a "neutral" read?
You're not - You're a "Neutral-" meaning "leaning scum".
Missed that. Better yet! Why?

Vibe + Your major pushes in the game have been on Amrun and SafetyDance - both of whom I'm leaning town on and looked like very easy pushes at that time.

ooba · Post Post #1179 (isolation #16) » Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:19 pm

In post 1178, Tierce wrote:Okay. You opened the game calling me leaning Town. When did this change and why didn't the process of this change even get a mention in your reads list?

Ah - if you look at my initial post, you can see I was uncertain of labelling either you or Zdenek as town - as opposed to others in the same post where I clearly called them "town" or "scum" or "mild scum reads" ("Tierce, Zdenek - look town but unsure of read"). So it's not a case of a town read changing to a scum read - it's a case of "hey this person's posting looks town" to "I'm leaning scum on this person".

In post 1178, Tierce wrote:You say you always read Amrun as scummy--but someone else doing so is surprising and null-scum? They are on the bottom rung of your Townreads and I don't seem to recall you speaking out against either of those situations at the time. Why not? Why not push back against what you consider to be easy pushes on "leaning Town"? Why not dig more at it?

- Well, it isn't the case of finding Amrun or Safety dance scummy - it's also the lack of a push on anybody else - some pressure of any of the people I find scummy goes a long way in my reads
- Amrun, I had nothing to defend her except "vibe". If that wagon had gone closer to lynching, I would have had a bunch of "Not a good lynch at all" posts
- I'm not defending SafetyDance right now because even if I'm leaning-town on him, I'd like him to reply to everyone else before I offer up my thoughts. Don't want to put counter arguments in his mouth.

ooba · Post Post #1184 (isolation #17) » Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:52 pm

In post 1181, Cephrir wrote:This is a bad position and you should feel bad for taking it. And if you do honestly believe this, why would you say it?

That's how I scumhunt - I look at interactions, who and why people push cases on.
The "By saying it, you've effectively told scum how to appear as town to you" part - If scum really act on this and attack my scum reads - they risk not appearing genuine when doing it - its easy to read into that.

Shadoweh wrote:
ooba wrote:Pedit: "##Vote: ooba <--- This vote good until ooba actually replacing out voids legal tender." -> Umm what?
WHAT DOES PYGMALION MEAN

It means unless you're replacing out your efforts are unacceptable. I honestly haven't read any of your posts before this one because I assumed you were flaking.

Probably the laziest reason to jump onto my wagon - If I am lynched on D1, this is where people should start.
- Why are my efforts unacceptable?
- "haven't read any of your posts before this one" - the same post asks a question quoting a word from one of my previous posts

ooba · Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:59 am

In post 1189, Shadoweh wrote:I wouldn't say it's the best reason, no,
but looking at the currently running choices you're the one I'd want lynched
.

My question is - Why is that I rate higher over other people on 'want to lynch'?

In post 1189, Shadoweh wrote:You're never going to answer me are you? :/ NO ONE EVER ANSWERS ME.

When I read someone, usually a couple of posts jump at me as "town" or "scum"; in your case, every post has rubbed me the wrong way. Actually Pygmalion might not have been the most technically correct term to use there, but basically I meant the case where If "I assume you're scum and then proceed to read posts from you - obviously I'll find them scummy".

ooba · Post Post #1211 (isolation #19) » Wed Sep 25, 2013 3:13 am

I'm off for a vacation for four days. I'll still be able to check in everyday - do not expect massive posts (or ones with colors and hyphens as StupendousMan puts it) since I'll be posting from the mobile though.

ooba · Post Post #1222 (isolation #20) » Wed Sep 25, 2013 5:29 am

@Quadz
- My top scum read jumped on to my wagon because 'oobas flaking' and im trying to figure out if that's it and why he isn't pushing other stronger scum reads? But sure - call it filler
- i never defended Amrun and Zednek. At least read my posts before posting "cases" on me

ooba · Post Post #1381 (isolation #21) » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:06 am

Ok im here. Give me a sec to catch up on everything..

ooba · Post Post #1391 (isolation #22) » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:33 am

@Shadow: LvE was a game in hich i made a single "catching up soon" and then quit.

Agar's post makes some valid sounding points. However the post toally ignores playstyle. I play this way as town - i post reads, when they flip - i quote my own reads and say "Hey i tagged em as scum here". The difference in this game is that the pace has been unrelenting so ive never had time to do a complete reread that i usually do.

Not sure where elles getting the paranoia thing. I'm paranoid when i get to late game and setup speculation, not early game.

Also "reactive" is a function of how many people attack me - i always respond to cases.

I reverse my read on shadoweh.

Tierce is a scumread that wont get lynched today.
Garruks scum.
^ lynch either of them - they will flip scum

Let me look at the VC before voting.

ooba · Post Post #1393 (isolation #23) » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:36 am

Thats easy. Thor is not someone i want lynched today. SafetyDance either.

unvote. Vote: Garruk

Those of you who think im town and are on single vote wagons would do well to consolidate.

ooba · Post Post #1460 (isolation #24) » Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:37 pm

@Mage: I have a couple of strong scum reads and id really like to see them lynched. Not feeling Thor-scum - and it doesnt just boil down to the miller claim.

@Alfred: Because im town.

Tammy makes a good point about safety disappearing. Id be happier about my read if he continued to contribute.

ooba · Post Post #1471 (isolation #25) » Sat Sep 28, 2013 2:35 am

Messiah, you arent voting Garruk after that post?

ooba · Post Post #1472 (isolation #26) » Sat Sep 28, 2013 2:42 am

In post 1470, Thor665 wrote:I agree that the Ooba wagon is horrible.
So...which counterwagon should I be supporting then? The one on me? The one I openly disagree with on Stupendous? The kinda mushy Messiah one? Or should I start a wagon I like?

What do you mean 'Messiah' one - there isnt a vote on him? What about Garruk?

ooba · Post Post #1565 (isolation #27) » Mon Sep 30, 2013 4:17 am

I hate this D1.

Unvote. Vote: SafetyDance.

L-3
SafetyDance (10) - Alfred Borden, Syryana, Garruk Relentless, Cephrir, Tammy, Shadoweh, displaced, Tierce, Nautilius, ooba
With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch

ooba · Post Post #1657 (isolation #28) » Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:55 pm

In post 1652, Benmage wrote:Have you attempted to breakdown what he's doing as logical scum play?

Not logical scum play but posts in Page 65 read as emotional scum going "This is what you're lynching me for?". Blaming "meta" and the "Policy lynch" reply to quads.

ooba · Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:19 am

"anyone feel alright about a last minute swing onto garruk?" YESS!!!

Unvote. Vote: Garruk

ooba · Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:21 am

Kanye - I wish I had your charisma.

Also people have said this before - but Tierce tried too hard to justify her Thor vote.

ooba · Post Post #1894 (isolation #31) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:37 am

This particular line in Garruk's post looked like it was worth checking out
"As well, the faces on the Amrun train engender more hope to me than the faces on ooba at the moment."

Amrun (3) - Goat on a Raft, Zdenek, PrideandJoy
ooba (2) - quadz08, AGar

And it does check out. He does say this about Quadz: "We don't really like Quadz either, but that's more gut than anything." and while he suspects P&J in one post for lack of activity - it quite clear from posting that they hold P&J's scumhunting in high regard and as town for the most part.

Something I noticed while ISOing:

- After voting Elle (after her 'WIGHT' slip) your suspicion on Elle continues for sometime. The Nat part of the head unvotes Elle in post 622 and clearly, still has some lingering suspicion on Elle:

"I still am keeping an eye on Elle, but UNVOTE: for the moment. I'm not exactly sure where SSK wants to head at the moment and it might ultimately be back onto the Elleheathen wagon, but we missed each other due to the crash yesterday and are unlikely to get a chance to speak for a day or two."

- I can't comment on what SSK thinks of Elle but clearly he's keeping an eye on her too since he's questioning Elle's scum read reasoning in post 697.

- But when you post the synopsis of the discussion the two of you had on scumreads - you do not mention Elle at all in 1317.

Why is this?

ooba · Post Post #2015 (isolation #32) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 4:36 am

Started re-reading the thread yesterday - up to 23 but wont be able to finish today.. so prod-dodge

@Goat

since you're here:
In post 43, you vote Cephir because he could have joined the game with kanye by voting PnJ but didn't in post 11. However, Garruk is probably more guilty of the reason you posted since they didn't vote PnJ after specifically being asked to by kanye in post 14.
Why this selective tunnel on Cephir?

@Thor

- in case you're still reading

Thor wrote:But feel free to go and find me a Day 1 Miller claim where the Miller claimed as part of their first post and was then lynched anytime in the next three days.
I'll wait.

Didn't have to wait long... Here's one such claim

ooba · Post Post #2090 (isolation #33) » Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:47 am

Finished 45 pages... I feel fairly confident about this read to put this down...

Unvote. Vote: Messiah Complex

(a) Over-Justification for town reads
I really disliked his reasons for finding both SD and Amrun town today. "I wouldn't have sent fruit as a scum joat on N1" and "I wouldn't have used personal reasons to lurk as scum = hence Amrun town" are both weak as hell. Scum tend to over explain a read - while a town would just go with "gut"\"vibe" when they don't have a substantial reason.

This happened in D1 too with the Thor=town explanation. In fact, Thor commented on it too.

Thor wrote:I'll actually slide Messiah into my slightly scum pile for it too, simply because I would expect Former to be a bit more inherently paranoid. This level of trust feels off.

(b) Voting
All people they gone after are in my town section - Cephir is a strong town read. Zednek is weaker town. And I've given temp passes to Garruk and SM. Nacho I'm not as sure as yesterday but still have em as town. Plus "Really don't like how you've had us in your potential scum pool all game but have made almost 0 effort to sort us." is a very weak jump.

Peace is my other scum read.
- Peace's play felt odd initially but that sort of died out. The few posts before the replacement spiked my scumdar again.
- The replacement post is also odd.

Spoiler: Replacement post

Here is the part from Thor's post that he had an issue with.

Spoiler: Thor's post

However, he had already replied to the top part of the above Thor post a good 1 hour 15 min before his replacement.

Spoiler: Post just before replacement post

I find it really hard to believe that he replied to the first part and somehow missed the second quote reply of Thor's to him - especially when it was bolded! Something in thread that makes you angry enough to replace out is an instantaneous reaction. The fact that he came back after an hour to replace out possibly points to the fact that it was faked.

And I can see Messiah\Peace scumpairing since the tipping point for messiah's unvote off the SM wagon was Peace's fourth vote; Messiah finds the wagon scummy but Peace's replacement displaced does not get any questions\attention at all.

ooba · Post Post #2091 (isolation #34) » Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:53 am

In post 2090, ooba wrote:(a) Over-Justification for town reads

Better phrased as "Reading someone as townie when that level of trust isn't justified and trying to over explain the read when called out on it."

ooba · Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:07 am

In post 1098, ooba wrote:@Tammy, Syryana - Congrats!
@Empire - Congrats too!

Till I re-read the game, I actually thought the Tammy, Syryana wedding was an actual IRL one. Even during the re-read of the early game, I was like "I usually thought people were busier than this before weddings; she posts a lot and has time to teach?". Anyway, thought that was funny enough to share.

ooba · Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:41 pm

SpyreX needs to be lynched. Should have happened on D2..

Vote:SpyreX

ooba · Post Post #2206 (isolation #37) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:04 am

In post 2205, Shadoweh wrote:
In post 2199, Garruk Relentless wrote: Not sure which of SpyreX and Agar is scum and which is dumb. Might be both. Bah. Amrun flash wagon I'm pretty sure had a bunch of scum on it, so that's a good place to start looking.
The flash parts of wagons tends to be town though doesn't it?

If you believe that, why join Tammy in voting SpyreX? Or by the 'flash parts', do you mean Agar and Elle who got it to L-1?

ooba · Post Post #2211 (isolation #38) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:27 am

In post 2208, Cephrir wrote:
Vote: SpyreX

I guess I don't have a vote today but the point remains

Your own doing or somebody else?

kanye wrote:what the fuck?

WTF what happened with the Amrun lynch? (or) WTF why is everyone voting SpyreX?

ooba · Post Post #2224 (isolation #39) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:19 am

I would have removed my name from this list though ...

In post 2221, Benmage wrote:LOOK I've narrowed the entire scum team into this pool:
Alfred Borden (Empire/Llamarble)
Andrius AGar

Benmage

Cephrir
elleheathen
Garuk Relentless (Natarisha/MafiaSSK)
Goat on a Raft (Channeldelibird/AurorusVox)
kanyeknowsbest
Messiah Complex (Desperado/Formerfish)
Nautilius (Nacho/Ellibereth)
ooba
PeaceBringer, displaced Spyrex
Prideandjoy(chesskid3/ActionDan)
quadz08
SafetyDance
Shadoweh
StupendousMan
The Alchemist
Tammy
Tierce
Zdenek

ooba · Post Post #2231 (isolation #40) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:33 am

@Kanye: I really thought D2 was moving towards lynching one of {SpyreX, Messiah}. The way I saw it playing out - Amrun would have posted a couple of walls - assuming she didn't do a derptastic job of it, most of that wagon would have disbanded since people were at "lurky; probably town; vote for pressure". The SpyreX hammer just reeked of scum motivation.

However, I wouldn't mind seeing some games where SpyreX has quickhammered though.

ooba · Post Post #2232 (isolation #41) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:37 am

Oh and regarding Peace being obvtown - what's your take on this?

In post 2090, ooba wrote:Peace is my other scum read.
- Peace's play felt odd initially but that sort of died out. The few posts before the replacement spiked my scumdar again.
- The replacement post is also odd.

Spoiler: Replacement post
In post 989, PeaceBringer wrote:
In post 976, Thor665 wrote:We already have Mollie in this game...
Hint: it's not pro-town when she does it either.
Additional Hint: when a scumhunting "style" is described as "unexplainable" I always translate that to "illogical and should be ignored because they're making gak up and lack the grapefruits to just say so either to others, and possibly themselves."
Bullshit- crap like this is why I am a fish outta water here- sorry to flake but

REPLACE OUT

Here is the part from Thor's post that he had an issue with.

Spoiler: Thor's post
In post 976, Thor665 wrote:
In post 970, PeaceBringer wrote:Thor- the tone is different then the completed town game
Can you link the completed town game for the lazy amongst us, and maybe explain the tonal difference?
I'm pretty sure I was in a game with him where he was town and I don't feel a difference yet, albeit I haven't seen much from him, but besides him acting polite (like Tierce is noting) I don't see anything really clicking as different to me. Help clue me in here, your case needs sheep, so you need to herd if you believe in it at all.

In post 970, PeaceBringer wrote:I do not do all the stuff folks here do.
I guage by reactions, tones and other elements that I will not explain
. Some I really cannot even fully put to words anyway as it is a general sense. Here, he comes off as forced. That is my reaction
We already have Mollie in this game...
Hint: it's not pro-town when she does it either.
Additional Hint: when a scumhunting "style" is described as "unexplainable" I always translate that to "illogical and should be ignored because they're making gak up and lack the grapefruits to just say so either to others, and possibly themselves."

However, he had already replied to the top part of the above Thor post a good 1 hour 15 min before his replacement.

Spoiler: Post just before replacement post
In post 984, PeaceBringer wrote:
In post 976, Thor665 wrote:Can you link the completed town game for the lazy amongst us, and maybe explain the tonal difference?
I'm pretty sure I was in a game with him where he was town and I don't feel a difference yet, albeit I haven't seen much from him, but besides him acting polite (like Tierce is noting) I don't see anything really clicking as different to me. Help clue me in here, your case needs sheep, so you need to herd if you believe in it at all.
it is in his wiki, so no I am not going to link it. And no, I am not going to explain my thinking further.

I find it really hard to believe that he replied to the first part and somehow missed the second quote reply of Thor's to him - especially when it was bolded! Something in thread that makes you angry enough to replace out is an instantaneous reaction. The fact that he came back after an hour to replace out possibly points to the fact that it was faked.

ooba · Post Post #2298 (isolation #42) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:05 pm

Here are my thoughts on the two counter wagons. I don't have solid town reads on both Agar and Garruk but have them in a "weak town read that I don't want to lynch today" slot. Considering that's where I had Thor and Amrun, I'd rather lynch SpyreX than either.

AGar:

The major part of my read is from the early Andrius play and this post says it better than I can. Post 940 gave me a good town vibe.

Well, Andrius will not spend much time on this game for certain ~reasons~, regardless of his alignment. I believe that opening a game with a post restriction he KNOWS he is going to get shit for is pretty ballsy if he's a liar, and if he's telling the truth, the whole "using these emoticons is cheating bit" seemed like something that could get him more pressure anyways as scum but would be a sign of him enjoying his role as town. I won't be this easy on him tomorrow, but I feel good about it now.

Regarding AGar's play (and this applies to Quadz too) - I think their continual push on me, even after it becomes against the trend is a towntell rather than a scumtell. (It opens scum to 'focusing on one read at the expense on commenting on others' attacks and they avoid that; townies just don't care and want their suspect lynched)

Garruk:

This is a tougher read to explain. The first time around - I had them as my top scum read for most parts of D1 and D2. Then on D2, sometime during my 40 page re-read, I said "I'm not too sure - but let's put them in the town slot" based on vibe and interactions. The fact that they soft claimed on D2 to help out Tierce did not play a major part in my read but it felt genuine and was a towntell.

Regarding SpyreX - it just isn't about the hammer - I still haven't had anybody answering this part about peace properly.

ooba · Post Post #2307 (isolation #43) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:38 am

@Shadoweh:

On Peacebringer:

I don't see a townie faking to replace out. Faking a reason to replace out - sure; Faking anger at a post just to replace out - no.

My opinions on the wagons:

I did not like how D2 ended abruptly. I wanted to take a more active role today in seeing who I want to get lynched lynched. That involves pushing cases on those I want lynched and dissuading people from other votes. If I had thought Agar's L-1 was scummy - I would have mentioned it.

Last paragraph:

That's how I scum hunt - I look at interactions.

"your scums don't have to be scum together for people to want to lynch them"

-> But they have to be scum together for me to want to lynch them - I search for scum pairings. Playstyle differences are not scummy.

"they've not interacted"

This is just wrong - They don't have to interact so there to be links between them. Messiah's "Oh no! Peace is also voting SM - I'm off this wagon" was strange. Messiah's future posts generally suspicious\questions others (like Cephrir) but not Peace's slot - in fact it's not mentioned at all.
Note: Messiah's D2 vote on displaced after I point this out is kinda dodgy too.

"same reasoning over and over"

,

"Townies don't think the same from day to day!"

- My scum read made what I considered an opportunistic hammer and I had Amrun as town - there's nothing in between that changed my read. And the "over and over" part makes it sounds like I'm using the same logic to dodge other game content - note:
a) I'm still posting my opinions on others
b) It's been just over 4 real life days since I posted the original case

@SpyreX

: Why the scum read on Syryana\The Alchemist?

ooba · Post Post #2310 (isolation #44) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:32 am

In post 2308, Messiah Complex wrote:And Peace had already replaced out by the time this exchance occurred, followed by displaced doing approximately nothing until he got replaced himself, so what exactly should I have been mentioning about the slot that you think I was missing?

What did you point out and what was dodgy about the vote?

My pointing out was the case on Peacebringer.
a) The dodgy part was you immediately voting displaced when there wasn't any suspicion mentioned prior to that
b) Plus you voted a slot that was about to replaced. When I made that post, Peace was actually a stronger scum read for me; but I noticed displaced was being replaced and switched my vote to you. Why vote a slot that cannot answer back?

ooba · Post Post #2313 (isolation #45) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:03 am

In post 2311, Messiah Complex wrote:
In post 2310, ooba wrote:Why vote a slot that cannot answer back?
To pressure his replacement. I was voting Displaced/Spyrex based on mollie's peace-might-replaceout-as-scum catch. I had reason to believe this might be an accurate tell. Why do I need to have mentioned someone previously before placing a vote?

- Des

I went back and checked - I thought your displaced vote was before SpyreX was slotted in to replace the game (Well you did vote displaced instead of SpyreX so that confused me). My bad. Strike that out.

Regarding the other point, well, you never mention peace at all. Nor the fact that you were voting based on mollie's case. A vote without prior suspicions and lack of a reason was suspicions.

@Goat: If someone voted for someone between the "I'm finding the replacement for X" and before mod has found a person ("Y is replacing X") - it's a waste of time since that slot can't reply back - and you're never going to get that person lynched. Better to pursue other cases and come back to that slot when someone's there.

ooba · Post Post #2324 (isolation #46) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 7:45 am

@Shadoweh

I'm confused, did wanting to seem like they have a valid reason as a player to get out so they can keep playing other games on site become alignment relevant lately?

To reiterate - Faking a reason to replace out - I can see a townie doing it (and scum) - meaning neutral.
Faking anger at a post to replace out - scummy. [And I'm not the only one who thought so]

Also does Spyrex claiming his blatantly opportunistic hammer on some girl he hadn't read about was because he wanted to charge up his power affect your reasoning?

Tammy's early D1 posting was genuine and a town tell.
Garruk's - "I support Tierece" on D2 was genuine and a town tell.
SpyreX's hammering and then saying I have role reasons is not a town tell and does not change my reasoning. [For comparison, Goat's posting "6 people are scum" was also neutral to me]. Before you ask how I differentiate {Tammy, Garruk} from {Goat, SpyreX} - that boils down to vibe.

If you don't want me to accuse you of using the same reasoning from day to day don't dig up smelly Day 1 case corpses, unless they're from murdered flipped townies.

I'm sorry but that's not how the game works - I will use game events and quotes as I see fit. As someone who does not have great rhetoric, if Nautilus has eloquently put why Andruis's early play was a town tell - I will use it.

Your case and arguments lack conviction. Maybe you should apply

Reasons a Person is Scum

test to the points you mention about me and figure things out - from where I'm standing - Peacebringer's replace is a difference in opinion and the rest are you not agreeing with play style (D3 focus, saying people are scum together, bringing up D1 quotes).

ooba · Post Post #2325 (isolation #47) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:16 am

@Stupendos:

Took a look at your original case:

Nacho has made opportunistic votes more than once. He voted me when his reasoning was "resorting" which is BS.

- Can't argue that there was no logic to back up this vote here. But the vote was not opportunistic. This would have been the third vote on you & both votes by Tammy and Messiah weren't fresh i.e. not a rising wagon.

Then he voted Thor without reasoning.

- He does present reasoning later when asked about it about Syryana. (i.e. he preferred a Thor lynch to mine - "ooba wagon sucks because ooba is town.")

Then he jumped on the SD wagon. Then he went back to Thor without saying anything.

- Deadline voting is neutral. SD vote and Thor vote were both very close to the deadline.

I feel like his attempts at scumhunting this game have been weak. There are a lot of simple questions like "Why?" that don't seem to be truly scumhunting.

- Cannot comment on the questioning style of scum hunting.
- For me, his D1 play was solid town. Currently, the most disconcerting part about Nat is that his posting levels have really tanked. So your 'lurking' argument has merit. (And I haven't read Walking Dead but backing off posting levels seems a bit silly). While I still feel confident enough to label as "weak town" read - I wish the earlier Nautilius would come back.

So yes - I won't be backing that lynch. However, if you do decide to pursue other wagons, I promise good things with a SpyreX lynch.

ooba · Post Post #2356 (isolation #48) » Mon Oct 14, 2013 3:48 am

Cephrir regarding Zednek wrote:I can kinda see this. He hasn't felt as present and aggressive as he did in my past experience with him.

Specific game names please?

Tierce wrote:And I'm pretty sure that it is. Not only do you have to take into account PeaceBringer's recent history on the site, but also that Town will often not react to being called scum as you think they should. Everyone is different. And with Town:scum proportions and the fact that replacement ratios are frankly as null as can be as seen on several attempts at analyzing replacement ratios in the post,
the burden is on you to prove how are scum more likely to replace out when being called scum than Town
. Everyone is always being called scum all the time, you can't pick and choose and say that your experience shows that it is scum who primarily replace out under those circumstances.

The point to prove is not in general but specifically how PeaceBringer replaces out when pressured as scum (and) whether replacing out when questioned is alignment relevant for him.

Spoiler: Mollie's thoughts

Nothing there to prove that is alignment irrelevant but too few instances to prove that it is his scum MO too.

@Alfred:

Meta seems to be your department - Did you get time to do the peace old games meta?

In post 2347, SpyreX wrote:
ooba wrote:@SpyreX: Why the scum read on Syryana\The Alchemist?
A better question for everyone else apparently - why not?
I have to assume there's some secret ~meta~ or something because that iso is a lot of nothing. The ONE post that really seems to be doing anything is a discussion about Cephrir being scum because ~~sweet meta~~.
That slot is "that guy" who is always around at the parties but manages to duck out before the bill shows up.

Ok. Noted.

ooba · Post Post #2358 (isolation #49) » Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:33 am

I didn't get a chance to finish re-reading pages from 50 onwards yesterday. Here are my current reads based on the first re-read + end of D2 + D3 play. I've tried to verbalise my thoughts wherever possible.

- Three people who I remember being really townie early in the game - kanye, PnJ, Naut. Their posting levels sort of dropped down and I didn't feel as sure as I did when re-reading those parts. kanye still is a decent town read, Naut's a weaker one and PnJ is no longer town.
- Both Alfred and Naut put in a lot of effort into the game. The effort didn't look like scum's "effort for the sake of looking town" but felt genuine.
- Tammy's early D1 play was someone happy that they got their role and having fun with it. You cannot fake that.
- Cephrir\Zednek strike me as townies who speak their mind and sometimes make statements that are easily refutable\argued against\scummy. There's no "image management" on their side. Since my style is similar - I can relate and they feel town.
- AGar gets a temporary pass because their predecessor did good stuff. (for Andrius)
- I really didnt like that Stupdendos got a pass early on for his posts from a lot of people. However, one statement in particular comes to mind where he says he's trying better at his town game (or something to that effect) and his effort in scumhunting does seem genuine in it's own way.
- Sometime during my read - I placed Shadoweh in the weak town pile. I can't figure out why now.
- Quadz, even with all his ooba hate gives me a slight town vibe. Also for Quadz and AGar, I felt they pushed the ooba angle at times when scum would have backed off because sentiment of the majority had moved elsewhere.
- A lot of people called Benmage town because of meta reasons. And his play neither had town nor scum vibes for me. And there were times when I thought "Those many people can't be wrong. Weak town pile?". Every single time I came close to doing that, it didn't feel right so kept him in neutral.
- Sryana's initial few posts felt really good when I was actually playing the game. On the more methodical re-read, it was just neutral.
- Goat's 6 people claim really didn't do much for me. But I ISO'd them and "we held back the double vote to use the census" looks good.
- I hated Garruk during play. A lot of their posting was town during re-read. I've mentioned this before but I liked their defence of Tierce on D2.
- Similar to Shadoweh, I felt Tierce was town someone during the read and unlike other weak reads, this read got stronger.

Town

Tammy
Cephrir
elleheathen

Moderate Town

Tierce
Alfred Borden (Empire/Llamarble)
kanyeknowsbest
Zdenek

Weaker Town

Nautilius
Garruk Relentless
StupendousMan
AGar
~~~~~~~
SafetyDance
quadz08
Shadoweh

Neutral

Syryana\The Alchemist
Benmage
Prideandjoy
Goat on a Raft

Scum

Messiah Complex
PeaceBringer displaced SpyreX

So there they are. If Goat's 6 bad guys claim is right, I've obviously got someone people as town where they shouldn't be. But I like those town reads and would really *hate* to see a lynch of anyone above the "~~~~~~~~" line today.
I'm going back to re-read pages 50-80. I thought now's a good time to post this incase day ends early again.

ooba · Post Post #2403 (isolation #50) » Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:45 am

In post 2385, Shadoweh wrote:Come on ooba, just admit your Messiah case is better and stop joining the hammer outrage, it makes you look bad in general.

The Messiah case may look better on paper but in terms of intensity of feeling, I feel much more positive about SpyreX flipping scum than Messiah currently.

It's good to see Naut back

ooba · Post Post #2478 (isolation #51) » Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:46 am

Zednek is a horrible lynch. I don't have have the same level of confidence with AGar but he shouldn't be today's lynch too.

I actually like Messiah's recent play.

TheAlchemist really needs to start playing soon. Also what does "Glass Towers" mean in the below line?

Glass Towers
, I don't have much meaningful to add to Nautilus' analysis of Andrius. Though for the sake of concision: Andrius' play was null. I see nothing in his ISO that's beyond his faking abilities as scum.

ooba · Post Post #2584 (isolation #52) » Sun Oct 20, 2013 6:00 am

SpyreX wrote:He's talking about other wagons while voting the "lead" wagon. He's not even pretending to try and push through his vote.

If Zdenek is scum, lynch ooba.

Because linking myself to a scum partner this strongly is advisable in a large.

I talked about all the other possible wagons today that I thought were\are a mistake - if enough people move their votes away from these - maybe we'll finally lynch you.

If Zednek is scum, some of his play borders on the ludicrous. There is no "image management" per se; his comments are not measured and his posting has been "what I think is what I write". A scum would have been more careful with their positions and their words.

Take the Thor vote - I can never see scum voting on these lines (because it opens them up to attack) and his subsequent "there's really no use in pushing Thor on the matter." is town.

Spoiler:

tl;dr: Zednek is only scum this game if his scum game is appalling. As someone with a similar playstyle, I read his posting as town - he should not be today's lynch.

ooba · Post Post #2585 (isolation #53) » Sun Oct 20, 2013 6:15 am

Benmage wrote:Why SpryeX ooba?

Hi Ben, I've listed out my previous points in this post. Apart from this, there was the D2 hammer.
- I know SpyreX hammers as either alignment but this one had scum written all over it. Amrun was never going to be lynched on D2. And the wind was shifting on D2 where we could actually get a decent suspect lynched. So hammer to get a mislynch you never would have got, avert lynch on yourself or possible scumbuddies for day seems like a no-brainer for scum.
- I thought the explanation (role-based hammer) was tacked on and weak.

Also I just thought of something while writing this -

SpyreX's playstyle includes "hammer time" and he gets a role that needs a hammer to power up? Coincidence much?

ooba · Post Post #2586 (isolation #54) » Sun Oct 20, 2013 6:33 am

I don't have much to work with because both slots really did not play that long - but these votes on rising wagons don't fit someone who cared whether they got the hammer vote or not. i.e. I'd see them hanging back on another wagon until they hammer a big one at L-1 that they think is scum. Putting a mid-wagon vote on rising wagons is not really what one would do.

D1: With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch

Peacebringer Voting StupendosMan - 6th Vote
StupendousMan (6)- Tammy, Messiah Complex, Nautilius, Cephrir, Goat on a Raft, Peacebringer

displaced Voting SafetyDance - 7th Vote
SafetyDance (7) - Alfred Borden, Syryana, Garruk Relentless, Cephrir, Tammyt, Shadoweh, displaced

ooba · Post Post #2709 (isolation #55) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:43 am

If I cannot get a SpyreX lynch, Syryana IS a lynch I'm willing to jump on. Let me quickly take a look at the previous VCs.

ooba · Post Post #2711 (isolation #56) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:06 am

{SpyreX} is scum. Based on the jumps to the Alchemist wagon and PoE...

If alchemist is town, 2 of {Goat, Messiah, Quadz} are scum

{SpyreX, (Goat,Messiah,Quadz)~2}

If alchemist is scum, {Pride&Joy, Shadow} are scum

{SpyreX, alchemist, Pride&Joy, Shadow}

I wanted to look at who the other suspects pushed. I complied a significant VCA list but staring at it really did not help me - but it might be helpful for others - so here:

Spoiler:

Quick ISOs to see who pushed which suspects were better

Sryana\TheAlchemist: Cephrir, SafetyDance, me, Agar

SpyreX: Kanye, StupendosMan, Agar
- displaced voted goat but it was a weak vote
- displaced voted SafetyDance but didn't post after that so I can't make it if it was serious or not

Goat: StupendosMan, elle, Agar, SpyreX
- Weak pushes on SafetyDance, ooba, Thor

Messiah: StupendosMan, Zednek, Garruk, SpyreX

Pride&Joy: elle, ooba, Amrun, Messiah, Elle, ooba

Quadz: ooba, SafteyDance, ooba, SypreX, Naut

Shadoweh: Garruk, Quadz, Cephrir, ooba, ooba, Zednek

Looking at this and based on the quick ISO - I like the second list better for now

{SpyreX, alchemist, Pride&Joy, Shadow}

. Not that there can't be overlap i.e I can see quadz being a fifth in this list. But I'm not that sure between lists and still think SpyreX is the best lynch for today. Please make it happen!

@Alfred

- Agar is not scum

@kanye, StupendosMan

- Zednek is not scum
Please move your votes.

ooba · Post Post #2775 (isolation #57) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:06 am

In post 2772, The Alchemist wrote:Perhaps you would like to talk to me? I'd like to think there's someone civil around here.

Your AGar lynch isn't happening. Would you please join the SpyreX wagon?

ooba · Post Post #2794 (isolation #58) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:37 am

^so much this. Spyrex is scum. I even have two good scumbuddy probables by links and two others by PoE.

ooba · Post Post #2802 (isolation #59) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:41 am

Quadz suspected me for most of the game. But during the start of D3, he was voting SpyreX because that's how bad he felt about him. Now that takes conviction to vote someone over your top suspect for two days.

But that was false - he soon moved to Naut for lol reasons. Perhaps feared that spyrex would be quicklynched since he was at 8 votes.

someone who's that convinced would have a tough time not,lynching that person but he's like alchemist dieee now.

ooba · Post Post #2807 (isolation #60) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:45 am

Elle is the scum on spyrex wagon. View the mutual bus by both of them. Elle never really pushed the spyrex case (anyone remember Thor on D1). Apparently disheartened but just a weak bus. Also she would vote Zednek if it came down to loldeadline but SpyreX also voting zednek never affected her.

ooba · Post Post #2810 (isolation #61) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:48 am

If im right about those three.
- Goat would be town for voting elle and spyrex d3

id take a look at P&J, Shadow, Messiah more closely. (by eliminating other town reads)

ooba · Post Post #2826 (isolation #62) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:55 am

That's L-2. The next person who votes and allows spyrex to hammer is a scum claim.

ooba · Post Post #2830 (isolation #63) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:57 am

In post 2818, Nautilius wrote:basically as one of {SpyreX, Zdenek, AGar} die today i'll be a happy mobster barney

SpyreX. You'd make me very sad if it one of the other two.

ooba · Post Post #2844 (isolation #64) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:15 am

In post 2843, Shadoweh wrote:
In post 2840, Nautilius wrote:oh god were you gonna marry me and kill me???

I did say I was going to set someone on fire, but that would imply I tried to kill Alfred, which I didn't. I'm not a life-stealing vampire. You could also see Tammy's role as a kill in a way, so that'd be three extra deaths that could happen in a night?

They are not repeatable kills. Three *possible* extra deaths on a single night is not out of the realm of possibilities.

ooba · Post Post #2860 (isolation #65) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:43 am

In post 2859, Goat on a Raft wrote:Syry's approach makes this head angry but he's not the right vote anymore.

UNVOTE: The Alchemist
VOTE: SpyreX

Still prefer an elleheathen death over anyone, still would be happy with an Agar lynch as well.

what did you think of my elle-spyrex case?

ooba · Post Post #2928 (isolation #66) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:16 pm

In post 2923, Garruk Relentless wrote:

Am I the only one who caught it?

Nope. Pretty sure SpyreX's an act though.

ooba · Post Post #2936 (isolation #67) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:30 pm

In post 2935, Tammy wrote:See the problem is even if you did forget that Cephrir lost his vote for the day. How did you miss that Faraday posted 6 minutes after the supposed hammer with a prod update, but not a new vote count, no locked thread, no flip, nothing.

like i said, an act.

ooba · Post Post #2945 (isolation #68) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:07 pm

In post 2942, SpyreX wrote: If we needed any more proof on the ooba front he's now implied that Messiah and I are scum together. Think about that.

Anyone reading my post will know I've increasingly like messiah's posting over the day. My current choice for your scumbuddies are Elle and quadz.

About Zednek and me, ill reiterate again - i would never defend a scumbuddy so strongly in a large. But IF im wrong about you-scum and wrong about zednek-town, im willing to take whatever heat that entails. Your scum flip will be all the proof that we need.

ooba · Post Post #2946 (isolation #69) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:10 pm

In post 2941, kanyeknowsbest wrote:actually no im happier now. i think scum here doesnt admit to reading everything if hes faking or confronts that its fake right up and obvious (id do the latter, little kanye meta for you)

Actually you're projecting your playstyle onto SpyreX. I, as scum, would have done it exactly as SpyreX did it.

ooba · Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:28 pm

Drop the L-1 of you're still there.

ooba · Post Post #2979 (isolation #71) » Thu Oct 24, 2013 4:51 pm

Hammer please.

ooba · Post Post #2992 (isolation #72) » Thu Oct 24, 2013 7:57 pm

Let's wait for the flip before we start making proclamations on how bad this is. Thanks.

ooba · Post Post #3036 (isolation #73) » Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:49 pm

On Zednek:

- SpyreX pushed the Zed-ooba case too much for my liking; not sure if it was to incite people to move on to Zednek
- But Spy was voting Zed throughout the day and Spy didn't take the easy jump to TheAlchemist (which he might have if scum with Zednek)
Overall: Not scum with SpyreX

On Messiah:

- Liked his voting with regard to the wagon
- SpyreX also tried to link back to my old case on Messiah
- However, the interaction with Shadoweh was a bit too sure for my liking i.e. "it would have been poetic if you're not there on the wagon when SpyreX flips scum"
Overall: Not scum with SpyreX - because I don't see him voting displaced exactly after I post my case on D2

On kanye, Shadoweh:

- Kanye was against the SpyreX wagon but peace's early voting is probably an indicator of not scumbuddy. Plus I had kanye as town before.
- Shadoweh defended SpyreX pretty heavily on D3. I think it went beyond the call of what a scumbuddy would have done (esp. as it was becoming evident that SpyreX would be lynched). Not scum with SpyreX for now; not as sure as the others

ooba · Post Post #3041 (isolation #74) » Sun Oct 27, 2013 6:12 pm

In post 3038, Cephrir wrote:Who *is* scum with SpyreX?

I have one case but it involves some linking to posts - so I'll do it soonish - once I'm done with work.

ooba · Post Post #3056 (isolation #75) » Mon Oct 28, 2013 3:21 am

a) SpyreX: Elle case was stronger - yet he chose to vote Zednek

Out of the three initial cases in 2300, elle's was the strongest.
His next posts only reinforced the view: 2372, 2376, 2430, 2574
However when he votes for Zednek, the only mention of elle in that post is "elle took the low bar and went under it with the last posts.". Compare it to his AGar reasoning and how that read naturally becomes less scummy in his eyes over multiple posts.

b) Elle: Weak push on the SpyreX lynch

*passes through with a Spyrex For Scum picket sign*

Allllll the procrastinators.

c) Slight overreaction to Messiah's question on the above

Messiah pointed out those were weak pushes and that she should do more. His tone was 'get off your ass and be proactive' than 'you're scummy'. Her response - esp. the 'questionable' part seems like an overreaction.

Spoiler: post

d) Willing to lynch Zednek (who SpyreX was voting)

I think this is the nail in the coffin though. She was sure SpyreX is scum but if it came to deadline - and it was between "Zed and anybody else" - she would vote Zed. Who SpyreX was voting.

My vote will stay on Spyrex - because I think he's scum and needs to die.

However, if the incoming loldeadline takes Spy off the table and means it's a choice between Zdenek and someone else, then yes, I would vote Zdenek. Or you.

e) SpyreX referring to my earlier case

"If we needed any more proof on the ooba front he's now implied that Messiah and I are scum together. Think about that." -> The fact that SpyreX went out of his way to mention my D2 case seemed like he was focusing on my cases - I did call out elle and quadz scumbuddies just before he said this.

Vote: Elle

ooba · Post Post #3118 (isolation #76) » Tue Oct 29, 2013 6:08 am

In post 3109, PrideandJoy wrote:well if he roleblocked Quadz N2, then w/e no point voting for Quadz. If N3, then yes, lynch Quadz. simple stuff

Quadz, nothing on this?

ooba · Post Post #3253 (isolation #77) » Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:54 am

No more votes on SD please. He's already at L-2 (and he's most prob town)

@SD: I know you've already claimed
Fruit to Messiah on N1
Snare\Block on Naut on N2
Track on Quadz on N3

The problem with your claim is this statement you made on D3:

Unless Nautilius is a ninja, they didn't kill last night.

This is contradictory - Since you used a Block on Naut, he wouldn't have been able to kill anyone even if he was a Ninja.

A Ninja is a role or role modifier such that the Ninja will never be seen as targeting anyone by a Tracker, Watcher, or other investigative role along these lines.

Please clear this up so that we can go back to lynching scum.

ooba · Post Post #3256 (isolation #78) » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:07 am

In post 3255, SafetyDance wrote:
In post 3253, ooba wrote:
Please clear this up so that we can go back to lynching scum.
Whether I got ninja or strongman mixed up in the initial post is irrelevant to what I used N2 and what I claimed I used. It has never changed.

I think people just want you to admit you got ninja and strongman mixed up in that line.

And if you want to see why people are voting you, "Unless Nautilius is a ninja, they didn't kill last night." is the only line about what you did on N2 on D3. (and think your Quadz result on D4 was a slip)

ooba · Post Post #3268 (isolation #79) » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:54 am

In post 3140, elleheathen wrote:Still waiting on Naut/Tammy before I reveal why I'm asking.

elle, now would be a good time to reveal what this was about before the entire day gets sidetracked.

ooba · Post Post #3271 (isolation #80) » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:35 am

In post 3269, AGar wrote:This is all I really need to point out, we need to lynch him
ASAP
.

Now, now - let's not be hasty and end the day too early.

While I don't subscribe to the "artificially lengthen day's discussion because we still have a lot of time" theory, I'm really curious as to what elle has to say. Let that mystery play out before the day ends.

ooba · Post Post #3298 (isolation #81) » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:21 pm

In post 3296, elleheathen wrote:Idk - something doesn't ring right. I may just be hung up on the odd wording because "I claimed to have done X" is so far from "I did X" in combination with the refusal to fill in easily laid out blanks...

And it makes me wonder if I shouldn't just wait this one out. Hrm.

His wording is actually not scummy.
"I used Snare\Roleblock on N2" and "I claimed I used Snare\Roleblock on N2 on D3"

Yesterday was Day 3. Today is Day 4. Therefore day 3 IS yesterday and yesterday was when I claimed to have blocked Naut D2.

Whether I got ninja or strongman mixed up in the initial post is irrelevant to what I used N2 and what I claimed I used.

"And it makes me wonder if I shouldn't just wait this one out. Hrm." -> The fact that you're not even considering you might be killed in the night is scummy. Now out with it.

ooba · Post Post #3304 (isolation #82) » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:37 pm

That's not as bad as I thought it would be. Does your target know that you roleblocked em?

ooba · Post Post #3305 (isolation #83) » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:38 pm

In post 3304, ooba wrote:Does your target know that you roleblocked em?

i.e. Would your target be notified that they were roleblocked?

ooba · Post Post #3319 (isolation #84) » Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:12 pm

Anybody who comes out and says "Kill\Lynch me" earns townie points.

Unvote

And regarding Tierce, I still think she's town. If elle's role had worked on N1, it might have changed things but since it was

after

N1, I think Tierce's claim of being the one shot holds good. (Unless they're both scum together but that would be a stupid gambit to play considering current game state)

ooba · Post Post #3323 (isolation #85) » Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:34 pm

This is from yesterday's notes:

@Quadz:
In post 2305, you end it with "My vote stays for now. (I am not jumping on a growing Ooba wagon, guys, this is how bad I think Spy's hammer was.)"

Let's set this in context. I have been your top suspect right from the start of D1. So you passing up on the rising wagon of Shadow+PnJ - obviously means you really thought that SpyreX was really scummy.

In 2355, obviously your thoughts on SpyreX really haven't changed much as noted by these lines:
- "This reasoning can go jump off a goddamned bridge. Unless his power is "hammer a dude or two and WIN GAME," it's not worth hammering someone you cannot possibly have a read on."
- "Also, show me examples of you taking that opportunity in the past, or expressing willingness to do so. Forgive me if I don't just take your word for it."

But you remove your vote from SpyreX and then proceed to vote Nacho.

^I wrote the above post after 2355. But I rationalised it could be a vote for pressure too - after all - you did call Nacho a weaker scummy read. And I realised the easy way to figure out if your SpyreX=scum convictions were faked was to see how you played after that. (so I never posted this)

So, in short,
- Quadz thought I was scum for most of the game (D1,D2,D3)
- But voted SpreX because he thought SpyreX's hammer was that bad (He even ignored a starting wagon on me)
- Quadz procceds to vote Nacho because he didnt give reasons for those he called scum (flimsy jump off from the SpyreX wagon when it was at 8 votes)
- Quadz proceeds to vote the Alchemist
- Quadz is vehement that Alchemist is scum and never moves back to the SpyreX wagon
- D4 starts, there's ZERO mention of the Alchemist
- Quadz votes SafetyDance

Bunch of opportunistic votes and both his SpyreX=scum conviction and Alchemist=scum conviction appear faked.

Vote: Quadz

ooba · Post Post #3465 (isolation #86) » Fri Nov 01, 2013 3:01 pm

In post 3461, Titus wrote:Can everyone quit talking in code and just say what they mean? Agar and Cephir seem to be talking about vague something or other Agar might have said. Shadoweh is talking about read reversals but doesn't say who. I feel like I cannot understand this without a scorecard. Don't leave me with blanks to fill in please.

Nobody is talking in code.
- Agar's soft claimed in 3387 that if yesterday's no-kill had nothing to do with Tierce's BP ability, then you're a good lynch
- Easiest way to figure out who Shadoweh is talking about is to ISO everyone on the quadz wagon and CRTL+F for quadz to see if there were read reversals between D2 and D3

ooba · Post Post #3494 (isolation #87) » Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:40 pm

In post 3471, Goat on a Raft wrote:QUADZ IS FUCIIN SCUM

and so is TITTIEUS

Alfred,
MESSIAH and fuckin SHADOWFEH ar prob the buddies

If both of them are scum, then P&J has the best chance of being buddies.

Quadz first - then Titus.

ooba · Post Post #3522 (isolation #88) » Sun Nov 03, 2013 3:33 am

@Titus: "So I at least try to be helpful until I have the opportunity to be read." - Asking questions like these isn't helping:

What is this coin thing? I certainly wasn't around when you made that argument. Tierce has hinted at coins as well.

You've got two players who've talked about coins. ISO both Shadow and Tierce - and search for "coin" - you get the context they're referring to. Asking people "what is this coin thing" forces players to
a) Answer you when they could be making posts about who's scum
b) Make the game post count even larger by rehashing older info

It looks like you want to contribute - just go about it the smart way.

I am a one shot night stop. I stop all night actions on the night I bold a particular phrase. All investigative roles can verify because they get a result with my flavor name. It starts with a V. My ability is perfect to use at mylo because that then gives the group two lynches.

While I agree with Sry that 3517 was bad (the ATE part) - I still maintain that Day 3's play indicates that Titus\Zed was not SpyreX's scumbuddy. And this is not taking my earlier town read into account.

But now that he's claimed this, it makes even more sense not to lynch him and have him use the one stop on N4.
a) If he's town, we've effectively gained a lynch (since there wont be kills on N4)
b) If he's scum, it puts scum in the position where he either uses the ability and makes it a wasted night for them (or) they kill anyway knowing he's the lynch on D5

tl;dr: Don't lynch Titus today; have him one-stop tonight; re-evaluate tomorrow

ooba · Post Post #3645 (isolation #89) » Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:05 am

So it boils down to a choice of either Quadz or SafetyDance.

If there was any town roleblocker that blocked Quadz - probably the best to claim that now.

And given the claimed abilities, macho cop vs JoAT who's used up all his abilities, it becomes an fairly easy choice. (If I was voting based on reads alone, I would vote Quadz - but it's 1:1 where we lose more if we're wrong about Quadz)

Unvote. Vote: SafetyDance

ooba · Post Post #3647 (isolation #90) » Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:18 am

Messiah - this part in Quadz's claim:

In post 3586, quadz08 wrote:N3 I targeted SafetyDance, because he had more-or-less fallen off the map. My action failed.

My vote on SD today was largely because his mixing-up of night actions implies heavily that he did roleblock me last night.

If you check Quadz's previous posts; his use of Italics in this post also reinforces it. (so it's not something he made up during the claim)

In post 3196, quadz08 wrote:lol

So the options are: SafetyDance is fucking up his fakeclaim and pretending he's not, or he legitimately thinks he's been crystal clear

something tells me it's option #1

VOTE: SafetyDance

ooba · Post Post #3651 (isolation #91) » Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:00 am

*Speculative post - Refer later if Safety flips scum - Ignore otherwise*

I've wanted to avoid setup speculation of any sort because I believe it detracts from my reads\game and I tend to get increasingly wrapped up in my own *paranoid* theories. However, I like the current theory that I have and would like to share my thoughts in case I die.

What's up with Safety Dance?

The question that's been running in my mind (and the genesis for the speculation) is "If SD was scum, why would SD even lie about his ability order i.e. track and roleblock on those night? What's the scum motivation?"

Alignment were randomised, so whether your character is The Great Other, or Ned Stark you have the same chance of drawing any anti town role. A large part of the design process was done before alignments were even considered (So roles came first, then the alignments), so bear that in mind, too. That is not to say certain changes may not have been made afterwards.

So here's what I think happened:
- Faraday created the initial role versions for all the roles in the game
- He then rolled for alignment
- He then balanced the game by altering abilities so that all sides were balanced*
- Now scum do not need really need fake roles in this game. But maybe they were given the initial version of their role PMs.

Now SafetyDance was run up on D1. If you look at his posting, you can see that he's thinking of whether a claim will run him up or not "Lol, if you wont lynch a miller claim then you wont run up me.". Here's what I think:
a) SafetyDance is

Meera Reed, Scum Roleblocker

b) And he claimed his initial version of Meera Reed, Town JoAT (1-shot of Fruit Vendor, Tracker and RB)

And I think that's why he made a mistake on the claim today - cause he kept thinking 'I'm claimed JoAT and not roleblocker'. And the massive over-reaction was because he didn't want the lies of the claim unraveled.

Two scum teams

*Yeah - I also think there's a decent chance that this game is a two scum team setup.

There was SpyreX's exit post which seemed to hint at it.

So, good luck and may the Others take every one of you that deserve it.

YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE

And even though flavor-wise, "Chaos" is a decent name for a generic scum team opposing the realm, my first thought when I saw "Chaos" was that there's another "Evil" scum team. [Lawful-Chaotic, Good-Evil]

Now, obviously - the number of kills contradicts this theory. But looking at Goat's setup info (6 scum) and the fact that Faraday's Clash of Kings had 26 players and a 17-4-4-1SK setup - I think a 19-3-3 makes more sense with a

no scum cross kill

clause - i.e. a kill on another scum team member fails. (or we've been *extremely* lucky with roleblocks+protection).

Probables

So if Safety flips scum, obviously Messiah is scum with Safety:
- For the early D2 "Safety is town because he sent a fruit to me"
- And the more current (a) voting Garruk when a Safety-Quadz 1:1 seemed obvious (b) And if he missed it, he still didn't vote after it was explained to him?

Also, I believe my read earlier that Messiah is not scum with SpyreX (which again reinforced two scum theory). Quadz still is the best bet for SpyreX scum buddy. Quadz switch from a fair town read on Nacho D1 to a scum one on D2 + Safety's N2 claim of track\block on Nacho makes me think Nacho is the third in the Safety\Messiah team.

Both Messiah and SD mention Garruk in their first post of D2 (and) Messiah's recent push on Garruk makes me think Garruk is a possible for third in the SpyreX-Quadz team - but the fact that Garruk said "Quadz is not lying about his role but is probably scum" is not what I would see a scumbuddy telling his last partner. So not sure there.

Evil: SafetyDance-Messiah-Nacho
Chaos: SpyreX-Quadz-?

Now there's a good chance that all this is nonsense and Safety flips town so take it with a pinch of salt.

ooba · Post Post #3653 (isolation #92) » Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:11 am

In post 3652, quadz08 wrote:If you believe all that, which you seem to, why are you voting SD and not me? You seem a lot more confident in my scumflip than his.

Because it's a theory, and like I said - my theories have been wrong in the past.
- If I'm wrong, I lose a lot more if I lynch town-Macho cop you than town-SD right now.
- Also easiest way to prove parts of my theory is to lynch a non-SpyreX scumbuddy scum anyway

ooba · Post Post #3739 (isolation #93) » Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:18 pm

Let's not discuss the theory for now - it detracts from discussion

In post 3736, SafetyDance wrote:So the only reason it's 1v1 is because Quadz believes I roleblocked him, which is just his (wrong) interpretation.

In post 3645, ooba wrote:So it boils down to a choice of either Quadz or SafetyDance.
If there was any town roleblocker that blocked Quadz - probably the best to claim that now.

Except for these five folk, everyone else has posted after my post:
3. Andrius AGar
8. Goat on a Raft (Channeldelibird/AurorusVox)
12. Nautilius (Nacho/Ellibereth)
18. Shadoweh
19. StupendousMan Katsuki

But I repeat again - if you're town and blocked Quadz, you should claim now.

Because unless you venture into theory-land, the scum motivation for either is pretty weak:
a) Quadz: Why claim a 1:1 when he'll be probably be lynched the next day? (There's surviving for a day but that's very weak motivation; unless he's banking on the fact that the town over-thinks the situation tomorrow)
b) SD: Why would he be so adamant about his night actions when multiple times on D4, the opportunity was given to him to admit to a mistake?

ooba · Post Post #3743 (isolation #94) » Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:36 pm

In post 3741, Benmage wrote:Can we move on yet....??

Let's give these five people the opportunity to post before we lynch him:
3. Andrius AGar
8. Goat on a Raft (Channeldelibird/AurorusVox)
12. Nautilius (Nacho/Ellibereth)
18. Shadoweh
19. StupendousMan Katsuki

Unofficial Vote Count wrote:The Alchemist (1) - Benmage
Titus (4) - kanyeknowsbest, SafetyDance, Goat on a Raft, elleheathen
SafetyDance (7) - quadz08, Nautilius, AGar, ooba, The Alchemist, Cephrir, Garruk Relentless
quadz08 (2) - Shadoweh, Goat on a Raft
Tierce (1) - Katsuki
Garruk Relentless (1) - Messiah Complex
No lynch(1) - PrideandJoy

Not voting (4) - Alfred Borden, Tammy, Tierce, Titus

With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

ooba · Post Post #3753 (isolation #95) » Tue Nov 05, 2013 5:13 pm

In post 3744, SafetyDance wrote:No it doesn't because you're not considering 1) your own reads or 2) that my claim doesn't contradict Quadz, Quadz is counter-claiming I didn't do what I say I did. It's not a clear 1v1. So why is preferring to lynch me the option here?

I'm making these numbers up but they kinda reflect my thoughts right now:

60% chance that Quadz is scum, you're town

- I still think Quadz is a very good bet for SpyreX scumbuddy
- But he's claimed cop so I'll willing to take the 35% chance on you; if was closer to LyLo, then sure - I would have voted him in a heartbeat but right now we have the luxury of lynching you first and still being wrong about it. Plus we also lose more if we're wrong about Quadz.
- Quadz-scum is probably banking on the fact that town will either go 'let's have the cop live; it resolve itself in a couple of days' tomorrow; However, I will oppose that viewpoint and push for his lynch tomorrow if you flip town - your mislynch will not go in vain

20% chance of Dual scum teams - Refer theory

15% chance that you're scum, Quadz is town

- I don't have anything on you-SpyreX connections but on the other hand I don't have a clear "not a SpyreX scum buddy" like I do for Titus or Messiah so this possibility still exists

5% chance of both of you being town

- I'm just not feeling this - feels like this would require too many coincidences - 'Scum need to have roleblocked Quadz' , the day playing out the way it did. I'd still like to be through and remove the possibility of some going 'You should have waited for me to weigh in' on D5

ooba · Post Post #3754 (isolation #96) » Tue Nov 05, 2013 5:20 pm

^ For completeness sake, I should probably add that I currently view the case of Quadz and you both being scum together as unlikely. Too much risk in that scum gambit (it feels stupid).

ooba · Post Post #3765 (isolation #97) » Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:46 pm

In post 3764, Katsuki wrote:prod dodge

have still yet to read in detail but from what I remember of SD earlier, I will hammer if he gets to L-1.

Also, you didn't roleblock Quadz yesterday night right?

ooba · Post Post #3779 (isolation #98) » Wed Nov 06, 2013 3:18 am

In post 3739, ooba wrote:Except for these five folk, everyone else has posted after my post:
3. Andrius AGar
8. Goat on a Raft (Channeldelibird/AurorusVox)

12. Nautilius (Nacho/Ellibereth)
18. Shadoweh
19. StupendousMan Katsuki

But I repeat again - if you're town and blocked Quadz, you should claim now.

Nacho wrote:I find the odds that quadz, a middling townread for pretty much everyone, got roleblocked by on the day when SD said that he tracked him intensely weird.

Yet Agar?

Here's the play:
- Mislynch SD today
- Lynch Quadz tomorrow
If we're totally wrong about Quadz-scum and SD actually turns up scum (and we gain a misunderstood town Quadz Macho cop bonus) - I'l take it.

ooba · Post Post #3792 (isolation #99) » Wed Nov 06, 2013 6:22 am

The Alchemist is a mistake. Not that he cant be scum, but we're going about it the wrong way.

Never let a 1v1 continue - you have information, use it - then act on that information.

We flip Safety today - if he flips scum, Alchemist is town for his D1 push on dance and push today.
We flip Safety today - he flips town, we lycnh Quadz tomorrow - he flips scum. Off the top of my head, I can probably see a good case for Alchemist scum based on:
- SpyreX never joining his wagon and always staying on Zednek
- Alchemist saying "ooba is on moonbeams" as soon as i came out with my SpyreX-elle-quadz links (before flip)

However, if we lynch Alchemist today and
- He flips scum, then i can clear Safety based on similar reasoning as above. We lynch Quadz tomorrow
- He flips town, i have no clue on what that means for SD and Quadz alignments

ooba · Thu Nov 07, 2013 3:47 am

In post 3844, SafetyDance wrote:The scum-Quadz theory for his reasoning in doing this isn't much better either.

SD, clearly scum-Quadz is already getting his way.
- His claim had the benefit of both slightly implicating you while at the same time - not a straight 1vs1 so that he can back out later
- People are already moving onto other lynches

Sure macho cop is a ticking time bomb that'll be lynched if it's not killed anyway but he was at L-1 and now survives for two days - I call that a win for scum.

I get all your other reasoning but not that part about why Quadz looks so town to you.

ooba · Fri Nov 08, 2013 5:45 am

In post 3859, kanyeknowsbest wrote:Quadz Must Die

Lynch Dance with me today - I promise we can get Quadz tomorrow.

Quadz can be let off for another day since
- Titus has a way to verify ability (or) Quadz can verify Titus
- He's claimed cop - who's claimed RB on N3 and that it's remarkably coincidental that SD tracked him that night (and there was what happened today). I actually like Quadz for two reasons after the claim
-- He's not being harping on the "we both can be town" like SD is as much; I would expect scum who's lynch has been aborted to push that line a bit more
-- He could have just claimed cop without putting himself in a weak 1vs1 with Quadz
So let's do it this way.

ooba · Fri Nov 08, 2013 5:46 am

^*He could have just claimed cop withouth putting himself in a weak 1vs1 with SD

Let's lynch SD.
If SD is scum, yay - we just gained a town mach cop
If SD is town, we lynch Quadz tomorrow.

ooba · Fri Nov 08, 2013 6:15 am

"It's not like SD is a reliable narrator or that scum would say yeah I rbed quadz." -> SD has clarified his actions. Scum RBing Quadz the same night is too coincidental and unlikely.

In post 3877, PrideandJoy wrote:I dunno Ooba I heard it was also uncanny that Quadz happened to have copped a player that died that same night.

I'm not saying Quadz isnt scum.

But the smart play is to lynch the non cop in the 1vs1 first - just in case.
Those reasons are me trying to see if there are signs for SD scum\Quadz town.

ooba · Fri Nov 08, 2013 6:28 am

In post 3883, Titus wrote:SD just will never be a reliable narrator due to his actions earlier in my eyes. That plus the fact I find it more likely than you of a scum rber, means I don't see this as a one v one.

Scum RBer - sure
Scum RBer - who just happened to block Quadz on N3?

If we lynch Quadz today and he turned up town, how would that affect your read of SD?

ooba · Fri Nov 08, 2013 6:29 am

In post 3885, Shadoweh wrote:Zzzzzz.
So guys, there's like, two days left? Are we actually lynching anyone or what?

I'm still of the opinion the right play is SD.

Even if it happens to be a mislynch, its a mislynch with a purpose that gets something done on D5.

ooba · Fri Nov 08, 2013 4:51 pm

Still not the smart play, IMO, but willing to roll with it.

Unvote. Vote:Quadz

ooba · Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:09 pm

Ceph is town. So is kanye. I'll need to re-read again to see how makes the most sense next as scum but one of {PnJ, Alch, Agar, elle} is where I'm leaning so far.

In post 3708, Tammy wrote:There is something I want to think about with this claim though. And for who asked? Some people do think that you should investigate null reads, and not scum reads. I wish he'd have investigated me though, I'd at least be able to tell if he was telling the truth.

Tammy, do you have any inside info on the setup? Do you know if it's two multifaction scum teams?

Also, has your read on Alch changed? Is he still very-town in your books - aka would you oppose a lynch on him today?

ooba · Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:17 pm

In post 4000, ooba wrote:Ceph is town. So is kanye. I'll need to re-read again to see how makes the most sense next as scum but one of {PnJ, Alch, Agar, elle} is where I'm leaning so far

.
I should probably add Garruk to this list too.

ooba · Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:57 am

Prod dodge. Will post tomorrow

ooba · Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:41 am

I'm back! Catching up.

ooba · Sat Nov 16, 2013 5:17 am

- I think D3 established that SpyreX cannot be scumbuddies with Titus (Zed)
- AGar's reasoning on Titus seems to stem from a town mindset - I cant see scum going 1:1 so soon after Quadz tried it on D4
- Garruk's push on kanye and the three ability theory look like a paranoid townie mindset - not that difficult to fake though but leaning town

Which leaves TheAlch, elle and PnJ and all three of them have votes on town. I'd really like to vote TheAlchemist the most because
- there have been times, the other two, when I've felt town vibes from their post.
- PnJ's pushes and play seem more random than scum motivated; Also the quadz interaction - if it was bussing, was an awkward bus

Vote: TheAlchemist

ooba · Sat Nov 16, 2013 5:19 am

In post 4212, ooba wrote:I cant see scum going 1:1 so soon after Quadz tried it on D4

1:1 is wrong usage - "I cant see scum going - 'Hey, this happened on N3 - so X is most probably scum' so soon after Quadz tried it"

ooba · Sat Nov 16, 2013 10:08 pm

@SafetyDance
Regarding the Quadz-PnJ: It was just too odd an interaction. If either of them flip, that interaction screams "Bus" to the rest of the world. They are competent players - they wouldn't make it so obvious is my reasoning.

Regarding Garruk: I've been there with these crazy theories. I agree it's bad but I just don't see it coming from scum.

Regarding Shadow: By "Shadoweh softclaiming having a shadow" - do you mean the man she soft claimed she need to complete her kill? I view that as neutral. Not sure what you're referring to when you connect it to the last two scum flips?

In post 4229, The Alchemist wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: PrideAndJoy

In post 4230, elleheathen wrote:
In post 4219, Titus wrote:http://www.scribd.com/doc/184733391/SCA ... 4rqxfr78jl

Those are my notes so far. I'll try to finish the rest over the weekend. If you have any questions, feel free to ask as my handwriting is a bit hard to read at points (not due to quality of scan but due to my own writing. Generally {text} are my thoughts.
lolol

All the "like wtf"s in those notes. But something about them made me feel better. I think. Maybe. Could be just the follow through on the promise (because I only scanned over it quick) but I'll bite.

VOTE: PrideandJoy

These two votes make me feel much better about avoiding the PnJ wagon.

ooba · Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:33 am

Unofficial Vote count wrote:
PrideandJoy (7) -
kanyeknowsbest, Tammy, Cephrir, Benmage, The Alchemist, elleheathen, AGar

Garruk Relentless (3) -
Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Titus

Titus (3) -
Goat on a Raft, Garuk Relentless, Nautilius

The Alchemist (1) -
ooba

Cephrir (1) -
PrideandJoy

Not voting (5) -
Alfred Borden, Shadoweh, Tammy, Tierce

With 18 alive it takes 10 votes to lynch

PnJ is flailing yes - but this is town flailing, not scum flailing ... I'll be happy if I'm proved wrong but I just don't feel it.

Also, the entire game state just doesn't feel like one big scum team anymore - far too many town reads and unless all rest Chaos scum are in {elle, TheAlch, PnJ, AGar, GR} (and even that seems unlikely given voting patterns) - I just can't see it. Let me take a look at VCs again.

ooba · Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:36 am

PnJ is town - stop voting him.

Vote: Garruk

- let's just say Messiah's conviction convinced me.

Spoiler: If Garruk flips scum

ooba · Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:46 am

In post 4284, kanyeknowsbest wrote:ooba whys pnj town?

Vibe - his reactions\posting. The quadz thing yesterday didnt seem like scum-scum - I esp. don't see quadz scum acting like that.
Garruk's response to that interaction and calling it bussing also helps both current reads. (PnJ - town, Garruk - maybe scum)

ooba · Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:07 am

Tammy wrote:I agree with this sentiment, but with the lack of kills I don't see it being multiball.

I suppose there could be some third party types though?

Yes - maybe 4-1-1? But this rule:

Alignment were randomised, so whether your character is The Great Other, or Ned Stark you have the same chance of drawing any anti town role. A large part of the design process was done before alignments were even considered (So roles came first, then the alignments), so bear that in mind, too. That is not to say certain changes may not have been made afterwards.

Makes me think 3-3 or 4-2; Roll for three teams: Town, Chaos and Evil and then balance between teams. I guess Faraday could have had Evil as a self aligned third party and gone with 5-1 but I find the above more likely. Could you link to that offsite multi scum game with kill protection you were talking about earlier?

Tierce, your Garruk logic does not hold for two scum teams. I know there's no evidence for two scum teams right now but it feels right because it explains a lot of stuff:
- SpyreX pushing Zednek-me even when it was obvious he was going to be lynched
- SpyreX saying 'You know who you are'

I said I voted due to MC yesterday but also took a look at GR's scum games before voting:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=30705
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=31354
- Early play seems to involve never mentioning\interacting with scum buddies much
- Many throwaway statements about scum buddies like 'X is neutral', 'X is also probably scum'
- Never starts a wagon on scum buddy - but joins the wagon if needed; but still has the tendency to avoid lynching if necessary
ISO'd them this game - interaction with Quadz and the voting-unvoting-voting seem to fit this profile

@Alfred:

Have you taken a look at their meta?

ooba · Mon Nov 18, 2013 3:11 am

In post 3651, ooba wrote:And even though flavor-wise, "Chaos" is a decent name for a generic scum team opposing the realm, my first thought when I saw "Chaos" was that there's another "Evil" scum team. [Lawful-Chaotic, Good-Evil]

The Evil bit from D&D and it seemed to fit as a scum team name. I can't link it to GoT as flavor-specific as Chaos but there were some evil characters in it. (like Roose bolton's bastard)

ooba · Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:59 am

@Mage:
At the start of D5, I would have been all over PnJ - but just don't feel it now

@SD
Ah - but both coincidences I pointed out were role based actions that they claimed.
Shadoweh needing another person doesn't require any coincidence.

In post 4368, SafetyDance wrote:VOTE: The Alchemist

We agree on something!

Vote: The Alchemist

ooba · Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:29 am

In post 4379, Benmage wrote:
In post 4374, ooba wrote:@Mage:
At the start of D5, I would have been all over PnJ - but just don't feel it now

Tell me why you think Alchemist is now scum?

I've always had some reservations with the Alchemist:
- SpyreX's scum read of him seemed off since Alchemist's play was neutral and hadn't been called out by anyone before that. I ask SpyreX about this.

- Before, the spyreX lynch, I point out SpyreX-elle-Quadz links and other possible partners
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... start=2800
Alchemist called that "moonlogic" - which is similar to SpyreX stressing my D2 "SpyreX-Messiah" case and then calling me a toolbox.

- Voting patterns - if there's just one multi scum team - most of the people he voted I have as town. The Quadz vote was neutral.

ooba · Tue Nov 19, 2013 6:44 am

PrideandJoy wrote:my money's on titus for scum btw

So vote him - at least get's a decent counter wagon going. (Better than the Cephrir vote)

ooba · Tue Nov 19, 2013 6:47 am

In post 4413, elleheathen wrote:
In post 4283, ooba wrote:
Spoiler: If Garruk flips scum
C: {SpyreX, Quadz, Garruk}
E: 2 of {Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Titus}?

And even if I'm wrong about E\C and it's just C- Garruk still decent bet for SpyreX,Quadz scumbuddy
Forgive me, but E/C = ?

Also, I can't find it for the life of me atm but someone asked about the extent of the rule breaking ability. The answer is just D4.

Keep reading - me and Tierce have a chat about it.

Also - enjoy the power of verifiable randomness!

ooba · Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:54 am

In post 4425, Garruk Relentless wrote:Otherwise, if anyone wants our gold tonight, tell me now, otherwise you leave us to our own machinations on who to give it to.

Please do not target me tonight. (in case I was one of the probables)

ooba · Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:53 am

Wow - Thanks Tammy. What were the total number of players?

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:13 pm

^Agree - You can have AGoT without bloodshed.

I'll continue where I left off.

Vote: TheAlchemist

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:13 pm

*cannot*

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:16 pm

As you wish.

Vote: Naut

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:55 pm

If I had known that's what you were going to do, I would have suggested someone better

I have a feeling this is T vs T

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:58 pm

Anyway - here's hoping I'm wrong

Unvote. Vote: Goat

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:21 pm

In post 4500, Tierce wrote:Let's not rush this, yes?

Unvote

I'm making a huge post - but I want to post before the day ends.

Spoiler: I'll still be voting Goat
Spoiler: It involves multiple scum teams!

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:39 pm

In post 4511, Cephrir wrote:Which seems unbalanced as balls incidentally, it would have to be 4/2 if Goat's information is real.

What if Goat was scum and was reaction testing for opposite scum?

In post 3669, kanyeknowsbest wrote:Q: if you think there is any chance in hell this is multiball, why are you not voting the raftgoat ?

In post 3670, kanyeknowsbest wrote:cus uh, seriously, 18:3:3? youd have to be hiiiiiiigh as fuck

Benmage wrote:cant be for I think quadz team with the lack of kills would've spilt some sort of beans prior to dying... like we didnt kill xxx... xxx is likely fire... or something etc. . Phone posting ftl

One of my regrets about D4 was the rush at the end. Quadz last post on D4 was when he was at 2 votes - then other 8 votes and lynch came before he posted again.

Anyway if my theory is right, Goat should spill some beans today - please give him that chance.

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 4:13 pm

^Titus, Could you please call Goat on a Raft as 'Goat'? Whenever I see GnR in your posts, I read it in my mind as Garruk Relentless (even though there's no N in their name)

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 6:54 pm

@Nacho:

Why didnt you use your ability yesterday (Day 5)? You were pretty certain Goat was scum yesterday too.

ooba · Thu Nov 21, 2013 7:32 pm

Goat on a Raft (7) - kanyeknowsbest, Titus, Cephrir, The Alchemist, Messiah Complex, Garuk Relentless, Nautilius
Nautilius (1) - Benmage

Not voting (11): Alfred Borden, AGar, elleheathen, Goat on a Raft, SafetyDance, Shadoweh, Tammy, Tierce, ooba

With 17 alive it takes 9 votes to lynch

L-2.

No more votes. Give Goat a chance to respond\spill the beans

(it helps his wincon if multiscum and he has partners remaining)

ooba · Mon Nov 25, 2013 3:26 am

I should have just pushed for this on D5 without getting paranoid

Vote: TheAlchemist

ooba · Mon Nov 25, 2013 4:23 am

Here's a list of coloured selected VCs - I really didn't find staring at it that useful - those of you who are better at this can use it.

Spoiler: Coloured VC

In post 427, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 1, Vc 14
PrideandJoy
(1) -

Amrun

Cephrir (1) -

Goat on a Raft

kanyeknowsbest (3) -

Andrius
,
ooba
,
PeaceBringer

elleheathen (5) -

PrideandJoy
, Cephrir, Garruk Relentless, kanyeknowsbest,
Thor665

quadz08
(4) -
Shadoweh,
StupendousMan
, Natilius, Benmage

Amrun
(2) -
Tierce, macmollie

ooba
(1) -
Alfred Borden

StupendousMan
(1)-
Tammy

Thor665
(1) -
Zdenek

Not voting (5)
- Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Syryana,
quadz08
, elleheathen

With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch

In post 503, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 1, Vc 17
PrideandJoy
(1) -

Amrun

kanyeknowsbest (3) -

Andrius
,
ooba
,
PeaceBringer

elleheathen (3) -
Garruk Relentless, kanyeknowsbest,
Thor665

quadz08
(6) -
Shadoweh,
StupendousMan
, Benmage,
macmollie
, Cephrir, Nautilius

Amrun
(1) -
Tierce

ooba
(4) -
Alfred Borden,
quadz08
,
Goat on a Raft
,
PrideandJoy

StupendousMan
(1)-
Tammy

Thor665
(1) -
Zdenek

Not voting (4)
- Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Syryana, elleheathen

With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch

In post 1423, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 1, Vc 38
PrideandJoy
(1) -

Amrun

ooba
(11) -
Alfred Borden,
quadz08
,
PrideandJoy
,
AGar
, Shadoweh, Tierce, Tammy,
StupendousMan
,
Goat on a Raft
, Syryana, Garruk Relentless

StupendousMan
(1)-
Nautilius

Thor665
(5) -
elleheathen, kanyeknowsbest,
macmollie
, Benmage, Cephrir

Goat on a Raft
(1) -

displaced

Zdenek (1) -
Messiah Complex

Garruk Relentless (2) -
SafetyDance,
ooba

Amrun
(2) -

Thor665
, Zdenek

Not voting (0)-
NO ONE
With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch

In post 1654, Eddard Stark wrote:

Day 1, Vc 48
PrideandJoy
(1) -

Amrun

ooba
(4) -

PrideandJoy
,
AGar
,
StupendousMan
,
Goat on a Raft

Thor665
(5) -
elleheathen, kanyeknowsbest, Benmage, SafetyDance, Zdenek

Amrun
(1) -

Thor665

SafetyDance (12) -
Alfred Borden, Syryana, Garruk Relentless, Cephrir, Tammy, Shadoweh,
displaced
, Tierce, Nautilius,
ooba
, Messiah Complex,
quadz08

Not voting (1)-

macmollie

With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch]

In post 1810, Eddard Stark wrote:

Day 1, Vc 54
ooba
(3) -

AGar
,
StupendousMan
, Syryana

Thor665
(13) -
elleheathen, Benmage, SafetyDance, Zdenek, Alfred Borden, Garruk Relentless, Tierce, Shadoweh,
Goat on a Raft
,
quadz08
, Nautilius, Cephrir,
PrideandJoy

SafetyDance (1) -

displaced

Garruk Relentless (6) -
kanyeknowsbest,
Amrun
,
Thor665
,
ooba
,
macmollie
, Messiah Complex

Not voting (1)-
Tammy

With 24 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch

In post 2186, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 2, Vc 14
Amrun
(12) -
Zdenek, Alfred Borden, Nautilius, Shadoweh, Tammy, SafetyDance, Benmage,
macmollie
,
PrideandJoy
, elleheathen,
AGar
,
SpyreX

Nautilius (3) -

StupendousMan
,
Amrun
,
quadz08

Messiah Complex (2) -
Cephrir,
ooba

elleheathen (1) -

Goat on a Raft

AGar
(1) -
The Alchemist

SpyreX
(1) -
Messiah Complex

Not voting (3)
: Garuk Relentless, Tierce, kanyeknowsbest

With 23 alive it takes 12 votes to lynch

In post 2685, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 3, Vc 17
SpyreX
(6) -
Tammy,
ooba
, Zdenek, elleheathen, Messiah Complex, Nautilius

AGar
(3) -

Goat on a Raft
, The Alchemist, Alfred Borden

Zdenek (5) -
kanyeknowsbest,
StupendousMan
, Shadoweh,
SpyreX
,
AGar

elleheathen (1) -

Goat on a Raft

Benmage (1) -

PrideandJoy

The Alchemist (4) -
Tierce,
quadz08
, Benmage, Garruk Relentless

Not voting (2)
:Cephrir, SafetyDance

With 21 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

In post 3005, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 3, Vc 27
SpyreX
(10) -
Tammy,
ooba
, elleheathen, Nautilius, The Alchemist, Messiah Complex,
Katsuki
,
Goat on a Raft
, Shadoweh, Garruk Relentless, Tierce

Zdenek (3) -

SpyreX
,
AGar
, SafetyDance

elleheathen (1) -

Goat on a Raft

Benmage (1) -

PrideandJoy

The Alchemist (4) -

quadz08
, Benmage, kanyeknowsbest, Zdenek

Not voting (2) -
Cephrir, Alfred Borden
With 21 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

In post 3328, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 4, Vc 10
The Alchemist (1) -
Benmage

Titus (3) -
Nautilius, SafetyDance, kanyeknowsbest

elleheathen (2) -

Goat on a Raft
,
PrideandJoy

SafetyDance (8) -
Titus,
quadz08
, Garruk Relentless, Cephrir, Tammy, The Alchemist,
Katsuki
,
AGar

quadz08
(2) -

ooba
, Shadoweh

Not voting (4)
:Alfred Borden, elleheathen, Messiah Complex, Tierce

With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

In post 3576, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 4, Vc 17
The Alchemist (1) -
Benmage

Titus (5) -
Nautilius, kanyeknowsbest, The Alchemist, SafetyDance,
Goat on a Raft

SafetyDance (1) -

quadz08

quadz08
(9) -

ooba
, Shadoweh, Messiah Complex, Cephrir, Titus,
Goat on a Raft
, Garruk Relentless, Tierce,
AGar

Tierce (1) -

Katsuki

Not voting (4)
- Alfred Borden, elleheathen,
PrideandJoy
, Tammy

With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

In post 3755, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 4, Vc 20
The Alchemist (1) -
Benmage

Titus (4) -
kanyeknowsbest, SafetyDance,
Goat on a Raft
, elleheathen

SafetyDance (8) -

quadz08
, Nautilius,
AGar
,
ooba
, The Alchemist, Cephrir, Garruk Relentless, Titus

quadz08
(2) -
Shadoweh,
Goat on a Raft

Tierce (1) -

Katsuki

Garruk Relentless (1) -
Messiah Complex

No lynch (1) -

PrideandJoy

Not voting (3)
- Alfred Borden, Tammy, Tierce

With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

In post 3949, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 4, Vc 27
The Alchemist (3) -
Benmage, Titus, SafetyDance

Titus (1) -
elleheathen

SafetyDance (2) -

AGar
, Garruk Relentless

quadz08
(11) -
Shadoweh, kanyesknowsbest, Nautilius, The Alchemist, Cephrir,
Katsuki
, Tammy,
ooba
, Tierce,
PrideandJoy
,
Goat on a Raft

Garruk Relentless (1) -
Messiah Complex

Messiah Complex (1)-

Goat on a Raft

Not voting (2)
- Alfred Borden,
quadz08

With 20 alive it takes 11 votes to lynch

In post 4180, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 5, Vc 8
PrideandJoy
(2) -
kanyeknowsbest, Nautilius

Garruk Relentless (3) -
Messiah Complex, SafetyDance, Titus

Cephrir (1) -

PrideandJoy

The Alchemist (1) -
Benmage

Titus (6) -

AGar
, The Alchemist,
Goat on a Raft
, Cephrir, elleheathen, Garuk Relentless

Not voting (5) -
Alfred Borden,
ooba
, Shadoweh, Tammy, Tierce

With 18 alive it takes 10 votes to lynch

In post 4456, Eddard Stark wrote:
Day 5, Vc 13
PrideandJoy
(10) -
kanyeknowsbest, Tammy, Cephrir, Benmage, The Alchemist, elleheathen,
AGar
,
Goat on a Raft
, Titus, Alfred Borden

Titus (3) -

Goat on a Raft
, Garuk Relentless, Nautilius

Cephrir (1) -

PrideandJoy

Goat on a Raft
(1) -
Messiah Complex

The Alchemist (2) -
SafetyDance,
ooba

Not voting (2) -
Shadoweh, Tierce

With 18 alive it takes 10 votes to lynch

ooba · Mon Nov 25, 2013 4:53 am

In post 4651, Messiah Complex wrote:Has Borden looked town at ALL since D1?

Has TheAlchemist ever looked town?

Borden is town.

ooba · Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:05 am

In post 4653, Messiah Complex wrote:When he was Syry, yeah. And during the Tierce/coin thing.

Why are they town?

- Des

Because some of their posting was very genuine - I do not see scum faking that. The only thing I didnt like about their play was not voting SpyreX.

Let's take yesterday's hammer - you say "he's in an uber powerful D1 townblock with all of his best friends and he tapers off into total nothingness" - and his play as scum is to come back and hammer goat? What's the payoff? Compare it with SpyreX's hammer - SpyreX got a mislynch which he otherwise wouldn't have (Amrun). Alfred's hammer just drew attention to himself for no payoff since Goat was going to be lynched anyway.

ooba · Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:32 am

In post 4655, Messiah Complex wrote:We've been thinking a lot about the lack of NKs and Spyrex claiming that he had a role that required him to hammer.

We think there is a very clear payoff for scum-Borden to have hammered the last two days.

- Des

I like the theory & can see how you got there. However I think SpyreX was lying about the entire "I needed to hammer" thing.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p5396132

N5 - No kill
D6 - Goat on a Raft hammered by Borden
N6 - AGar killed

Guess who never got a chance to check in D6 to say who he blocked N5 and then got murdered the next night even though he wasn't in town block?

This is a much stronger reason for the hammer on D6 than above. Gut still says Bowden town but I'll think about it.

ooba · Mon Nov 25, 2013 8:20 am

In post 4663, Titus wrote:Ooba, why is Borden town? Desp's case looks fucking flawless. All you've said is you think Borden is town, or you'll think about it.

I'm a intuitive player (see spoiler) - I go by what feels right.

Spoiler: My Playstyle

That said I'll try and highlight my reasons. Overall: Alfred's posting comes from a town mindset. A lot of his posts seem to echo my thoughts and to a certain extent, my reads. (D3-D4)

Alfred wrote:
In post 2102, Eddard Stark wrote:
SpyreX replaces displaced! Welcome him to the game
Man, I really want to be super amped here but the truth is I just feel like this game got way harder.

- This is EXACTLY what I thought after SpyreX replaced in to the displaced slot

- His analysis posts were bang on. His meta analysis of me was so good that whenever I was neutral on someone in the game, I'd go back and read his meta analysis on that player.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5398193
Now effort is not town - but this is genuine town hunting.

- We've agreed on all most all town reads. (Except probably Benmage - I still have him as neutral)

What I don't like about him:
- He disappeared for the most part when we had lynches on SpyreX+Quadz.
- The lack of activity
Where my read stands right now: The same one I had on Nacho on D3 - a town read who's posting level has gone down and makes me uneasy. I hope they'd come back and make uber posts like Nacho did so that we can go back to lynching scum.

ooba · Tue Nov 26, 2013 2:39 am

In post 4679, Nautilius wrote:Agar was probably killed yesterday night because scumteam thought AGar had a guilty on one of them, but I used powers last night that were more likely to stop the kill than his block.

By last night, you mean N5 right?

Nacho I agree with you on Alfred. But why elle? Do you really see her - coming in to the thread the day after SpyreX was lynched and declaring that we need to kill her? Plus the vanillazing Tierce when Tierce probably got hit N1 is a good point in her favor too.

ooba · Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:04 am

In post 4683, Benmage wrote:Is everyone else finding intermittent site downtime? I tried accessing last night several times, EST.

Anywhose... I'll catchup at work or something.

It worked well for me.

In post 4689, Benmage wrote:
In post 4687, Titus wrote:I also find it funny no one is discussing Alchemist that much.
Whats there to discuss active lurker is still lurking. Community still sucks.

Nevermore! Let's take him out!

In post 4693, Tierce wrote:
In post 4691, Benmage wrote:I've been letting a little crazy in lately that has me believing the scum team might gain something from
Hammering
... SpyreX being the original lamb, and Alfred ninja-ing one with that GnR speedlynch.
I kind of want to think they are building the ladder/chain of Chaos. Sure, SpyreX's claim fit in with his role, but this is so tempting a concept--six scum needing certain events to gain abilities.

The ladder of Chaos sounds so elegant\nice! I don't think it's there this game but it's fun speculating what you would give them as a mod to increase 'Chaos' in the game - I like "make sure every player in the game is voted on one single day."

ooba · Tue Nov 26, 2013 6:11 am

In post 4701, Cephrir wrote:In what universe is one line on the subject supporting a lynch?

In this universe - where that one line is "I support that lynch".

ooba · Tue Nov 26, 2013 6:19 am

In post 4703, Cephrir wrote:
In post 4702, ooba wrote:
In post 4701, Cephrir wrote:In what universe is one line on the subject supporting a lynch?
In this universe - where that one line is "I support that lynch".
I was referring to my one line about elle in 4699, which doesn't say that

I think the two scum teams this game are "Humour" and the "Internet" because they seem opposed.

ooba · Wed Nov 27, 2013 5:56 am

In post 4774, Benmage wrote:The whole they were good D1 crap.. they'll come in and be good.. No shit. Its Empire and Llamarable.. you don't think they could dangle shiny coins in front of you rednecks to go ooo ahhh at and all go yep yep town town.. like WTF are u expecting them to come in an do? Claim scum.

This is fucking pathetic.

Considering you were on TA's case for D4 and D5 - why do you have a problem with lynching TA first? At least Alfred had a good D1.

ooba · Sat Nov 30, 2013 9:28 am

I'm here - will post tomorrow.

ooba · Mon Dec 02, 2013 6:17 am

I'm here!!!!

ooba · Mon Dec 02, 2013 6:47 am

In post 4809, SafetyDance wrote:Godwin has been reached, 192 posts in.

It's part of the scum "Chaos" ladder to mention Hitler.

I hammer obvious-lynch-for-today wagons a lot. Think Yoloville.

Please don't hammer in this game ever again

Someone finally mentions even\odd night killing - which is the theory I hinted at yesterday (and said I would make a post about) - but let's cross that bridge when we come to it. Those that might be second team possibles in multiball are unlynchable today.

Let's just continue with one team assumption and lynch Alchemist.

ooba · Mon Dec 02, 2013 5:49 pm

In post 5012, Cephrir wrote:I feel like MC has observed others calling SD town for being unreasonably hostile and decided to emulate it because I don't recall this happening in 164...

This applies to Titus too. Calling 'kanye' an idiot, saying 'your brain doesn't work'. (@Cephrir). Why single out MC?

ooba · Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:27 pm

In post 5122, Alfred Borden wrote:Ooba, I will refrain from hammering.

Thank you. I agree with most of Naut's analysis:

Town bloc

Zednek\Titus

: Please go read D3 again. SpyreX's interactions with Zed, Zed's play are clearly town. In fact, I would

Naut

: Nacho's town (or worst, dual scum). We just finished a game in which we were scum partners - the energy levels and posting feel totally different.

Shadow

: Shadow's town. I wish she had vigged somebody else, but still town.

SafetyDance

: D4 interactions with Quadz make him look good. I will feel even better about this slot if TA flips scum.

Tierce

: A lot of actions that don't make sense as scum including clearing two potential lynch candidates. Will reevaluate if either flips scum later.

Tammy

: I had Tammy as town but right now in the "I have to be wrong about somebody as town, so I'm paranoid about this slot". If elle's scum, Tammy's most definitely town for going "SpyreX and elle are scum" on D2 (or D3, I forget which).

Not for today list

Cephrir, Messiah

: I felt good about these slots on previous days. Messiah for the conviction displayed when voting SpyreX - Cephrir for general posting. Not as town as above.

Alfred

: I liked him enough for early play not to lynch him today.

elle

: Just for the "Kill me!" on D5 but I would reverse this read in a heartbeat.

Garruk

: I think the entire tierce got shot N1 role thing has to be relooked. If we remove the assumption that Tierce for sure was shot on N1, then I still like elle because she was like "kill me!" on D5. Garruk - I would still see them motivating a scum partner but I feel much better about elle than this slot.

Here are reasons to lynch alchemist today:
- We've already seen Quadz bussing a partner but then moving votes for weak ass reasons. He was so "Alchemist" was scum on D3 and literally never mentions him on D4.
- SpyreX's scumlist: You can go back and check but I actually questioned SpyreX on putting Syryana there - it was very odd putting him on the scumlist.
- General lack of scumhunting: The two pushes in this game from him were on SafetyDance and Agar - one who's flipped town and one who's town (if mono scum).
- Most of my neutrals {Kanye, Benmage, Garruk} are avoiding this wagon like crazy and are instead focusing on {Titus, Alfred, Kanye} respectively.

ooba · Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:54 pm

Unvote.

I'd rather the hammer be coordinated (i.e. be made by someone in town bloc than random) to be on the safer side.

ooba · Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:22 pm

In post 5133, Tammy wrote:
In post 5129, ooba wrote: Here are reasons to lynch alchemist today:
- We've already seen Quadz bussing a partner but then moving votes for weak ass reasons. He was so "Alchemist" was scum on D3 and literally never mentions him on D4.
Which partner did Quadz buss then move the vote for weak ass reasons?

SpyreX D3. Then immediately voted Naut because "Naut didn't specify why his scum are scum"!

ooba · Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:50 pm

This is a turnaround but I've literally spent the last hour staring at vote counts and
- It was impossible to make a 5-player scum team that made sense with TheAlchemist
- I revisited assumptions and I guess there is a lot of evidence against TA scum too
-- Quadz voting TA on D3 when the wagon was rising
-- TA voting SpyreX when I asked him to
-- The coin
It's tough to admit but I *might* be wrong here.

Anyway of the counter wagons, I'm not voting Alfred and kanye's a decent chance for scum anyway.

kanye's play on D4 hardly clears him. It was very clear that SafetyDance and Quadz was a 1:1. Quadz was either going to lynched D4 or D5 with Safety's flip. So he pushed a bit harder to get Quadz lynched on D4 - it's hardly bussing when you lynch a partner who's had it in anyway.

Vote: kanye

However, if kanye flips town, Shadoweh, please kill TA.

ooba · Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:04 pm

@Benmage: I'd rather lynch scum than "potential thorns" at endgame. If I had my way, we'd never go to endgame.

ooba · Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:54 pm

In post 5151, kanyeknowsbest wrote:
In post 3873, ooba wrote:
In post 3859, kanyeknowsbest wrote:Quadz Must Die
Lynch Dance with me today - I promise we can get Quadz tomorrow.

Quadz can be let off for another day since
- Titus has a way to verify ability (or) Quadz can verify Titus
- He's claimed cop - who's claimed RB on N3 and that it's remarkably coincidental that SD tracked him that night (and there was what happened today). I actually like Quadz for two reasons after the claim
-- He's not being harping on the "we both can be town" like SD is as much; I would expect scum who's lynch has been aborted to push that line a bit more
-- He could have just claimed cop without putting himself in a weak 1vs1 with Quadz
So let's do it this way.
heres a hint for you guys: if i was scum quadz would not have died d4. i had plenty of opportunity to throw my hands up in the air and say "gosh fine well lynch safety today and let titsu do his thing and confirm him" and still be able to show later that i was pushing quadz to die that day well after i needed to. remember when i was harping about optimal scumplay? thats because i fucking like optimal scumplay, and optimal scumplay was for quadz to not die d4 when he didnt need to.

No optimal scumplay is making sure you maximize your long term chances of winning. Pushing and actually getting the quadz lynch gets you a *lot* more towncred than the other scenario.

idk does anyone have a reason they think im scum besides "he lynched quadz, one of the only 2 scum weve lynched this game"?

PoE. And there's nothing to show you're town either.

ooba · Tue Dec 03, 2013 7:19 pm

If you really want to talk about optimal strategy, let's talk about Zednek\Titus - who you've been pushing from Day 5 onwards.

SpyreX opens up D3 with a case on Zed - Zed votes SpyreX. They carry this for the entire day; then, at the very deadline - when no other lynch apart from SpyreX is viable, Zed decides to unvote at L-1 and throw away all the bussing credibility they've built up. Please.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:35 am

In post 5155, Messiah Complex wrote:
In post 5153, ooba wrote:No optimal scumplay is making sure you maximize your long term chances of winning. Pushing and actually getting the quadz lynch gets you a *lot* more towncred than the other scenario.
Why was Kanye's towncred (which was not lacking before the Quadz lynch) more important than Quadz' life?

- Des

It's not sacrificing Quadz's life - his lynch was already forfeit - it was a question of D4 or D5. You make that D5 and you gain immense town cred - not to mention a significant 'get out of lynch with that logic' card.

In post 5158, kanyeknowsbest wrote:like what happened between you declaring me town as fuck (which iirc happened before quadz even flipped) and now that im no longer obviously town ?

I reevaluate with flips, new info and obviously how people vote.

When the day started, I thought it might be {elle, TA, Garruk with Tierce as a paranoid possibility} scumteam. elle's playing like town - so is Garruk. Right now I'd say it has to be some combination of {you, Benmage, Ceph}. All three of you have shown some combination of fear that the PoE thing is working out for town
- You keep pushing Titus who is town
- Ben kept pushing Alfred at the start of the day since he knows Alfred is a harder mislynch than TA - the hammer sentiment will subside in time. As soon as I change lynches to you, he thinks TA is town but we should still him because he's a thorn?
- Ceph I'm not so sure but he keeps mentioning the dont-clear-people by roles a lot (which is good advice to keep in mind but not worth mentioning so many times)

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 3:19 am

Nacho, please be awesome and do the same thing you did with SpyreX. Vote kanye with me.

I didn't have the conviction on Day 5 and Day 6 because I guess - at the back of my mind - I had doubts about Alchemist. But the kanye lynch feels right - please trust me on this.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 3:23 am

In post 5162, Benmage wrote:
In post 5150, Messiah Complex wrote:
In post 4691, Benmage wrote:I've been letting a little crazy in lately that has me believing the scum team might gain something from
Hammering
... SpyreX being the original lamb, and Alfred ninja-ing one with that GnR speedlynch.

In post 5139, Benmage wrote:^pedit hats...

And whats the hammer concern... damn ooba u bad at dis.
Did you forget your own theory on why scum might be going after hammers?
My own "crazy" theory. Okay kid.

I'd like to see scum hammer after the scrutiny we've now put on hammers in thread .

I'll apologise - I reread parts of the game - I was wrong about you being scum. Kanye's still scum though.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 3:27 am

In post 5164, Benmage wrote:Its a little baffling you can waffle your entire scum teams on D7.. a testament to your abilities at this game.

I might be paranoid and waffle *a lot* during the day but till it comes to that final lynch vote\push, I've been correct at every lynch that's happened in the game so far.

^Haha at the ninja!

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:41 am

In post 4995, Cephrir wrote:Kanye, how do you feel about coming out with respect to our role interaction? Because I want to talk to you about it.

Cephrir - I ISO'd you - notice that you want to lynch TA (but aren't too sure about his scum flip). What do you think of Kanye? Does this role interaction help your read of him?

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 6:42 am

In post 5177, Cephrir wrote:
In post 5174, ooba wrote:
In post 4995, Cephrir wrote:Kanye, how do you feel about coming out with respect to our role interaction? Because I want to talk to you about it.
Cephrir - I ISO'd you - notice that you want to lynch TA (but aren't too sure about his scum flip). What do you think of Kanye? Does this role interaction help your read of him?
Well, early on his actions with respect to that interaction scored a lot of town points in my book, and he did things that had very little scum motivation it seemed, but since then things have taken a turn for the worse, and some of the town points were never redeemed. I apparently can't be less vague about that.

I also dislike that he doesn't want to talk about it, since from my perspective at least, I don't see how it would harm anything. It's not like there are super secret powers involved here that need to stay hidden.

I'm quite interested in the exact wording of the ability that allows this interaction on his side, because of reasons.

Thank you - this also makes me feel better about you.

Can I cash in on the 8207 town points I have and ask you to trust me and vote Kanye along with us?

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 6:54 am

In post 3671, Cephrir wrote:For those of you keeping score at home, ooba's current towniness quotient is 8,247 (approaching the all-time record!)

Wow I quoted that number from memory - pretty close!

^ makes sense.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:50 am

In post 5188, kanyeknowsbest wrote:btw im not todays lynch just so you all know. we can stop barking up this tree.

You are today's lynch.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:57 am

In post 5190, kanyeknowsbest wrote:
In post 5189, ooba wrote:
In post 5188, kanyeknowsbest wrote:btw im not todays lynch just so you all know. we can stop barking up this tree.
You are today's lynch.
youre wrong bud.

No - good luck with that - we're just waiting for the awesome people to show up and vote you.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:15 am

In post 5199, Nautilius wrote:no no no no no no no

one sign of weakness shouldn't translate into "everybody lynch kanye"

It's not your sign of weakness. He's scum - I guarantee it. I would have felt a lot better about you if you had just voted him right now though.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:17 am

In post 5203, kanyeknowsbest wrote:
In post 5202, ooba wrote:
In post 5199, Nautilius wrote:no no no no no no no

one sign of weakness shouldn't translate into "everybody lynch kanye"
It's not your sign of weakness. He's scum - I guarantee it. I would have felt a lot better about you if you had just voted him right now though.
yes youve been really spot on w. your reads this game. especially with the "look guys please lets not lynch quadz today" thing

Fuck you.

I said lynching Safety Dance first was a equally valid move as long as Quadz was lynched D5. And we both know that would have turned out better for town.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:19 am

In post 3323, ooba wrote:This is from yesterday's notes:

@Quadz:
In post 2305, you end it with "My vote stays for now. (I am not jumping on a growing Ooba wagon, guys, this is how bad I think Spy's hammer was.)"

Let's set this in context. I have been your top suspect right from the start of D1. So you passing up on the rising wagon of Shadow+PnJ - obviously means you really thought that SpyreX was really scummy.

In 2355, obviously your thoughts on SpyreX really haven't changed much as noted by these lines:
- "This reasoning can go jump off a goddamned bridge. Unless his power is "hammer a dude or two and WIN GAME," it's not worth hammering someone you cannot possibly have a read on."
- "Also, show me examples of you taking that opportunity in the past, or expressing willingness to do so. Forgive me if I don't just take your word for it."

But you remove your vote from SpyreX and then proceed to vote Nacho.
^I wrote the above post after 2355. But I rationalised it could be a vote for pressure too - after all - you did call Nacho a weaker scummy read. And I realised the easy way to figure out if your SpyreX=scum convictions were faked was to see how you played after that. (so I never posted this)

So, in short,
- Quadz thought I was scum for most of the game (D1,D2,D3)
- But voted SpreX because he thought SpyreX's hammer was that bad (He even ignored a starting wagon on me)
- Quadz procceds to vote Nacho because he didnt give reasons for those he called scum (flimsy jump off from the SpyreX wagon when it was at 8 votes)
- Quadz proceeds to vote the Alchemist
- Quadz is vehement that Alchemist is scum and never moves back to the SpyreX wagon
- D4 starts, there's ZERO mention of the Alchemist
- Quadz votes SafetyDance

Bunch of opportunistic votes and both his SpyreX=scum conviction and Alchemist=scum conviction appear faked.

Vote: Quadz

And the quadz lynch you keep taking credit for - let's not forget who made that really happen.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:51 am

Sigh... You guys made me claim when I asked you to just trust me... Fuck... I'm so angry at this right now!! (myself mostly because I should have played this better and not had to claim)

I was able to use my super today because certain conditions got activated. I'll mulled saving it for tomorrow for the most part of the day because I had TA as the scum who was early on the quadz wagon - plus quadz unvote on D5 was *really* bad. Closer to deadline - when I reread Quadz again - it made me doubt my read. And sanity prevailed since I really didnt know if was going to be alive tomorrow to use the super.

Rather than waste the shot at TA, I thought somebody else on the Quadz early wagon would be good. It was a toss up between kanye and Cephrir and I went with Cephrir because I noticed kanye pushing him only after it was decided Quadz was a D4 or D5 lynch.

Claim: 1-shot investigate on kanye. Result: Guilty

My initial gut scum partner call out was Benmage and Cephrir - but on further reading I'm pretty sure Benmage was a bad call and I don't think it's Cephrir too (I would have preferred it if he had voted though) - so I really don't know who's scum with kanye - but kanye is scum.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:08 am

In post 5223, kanyeknowsbest wrote:did you attempt to use this on the night titus roleblocked.

This was a day ability.

It took me half hour to go through your ISO and see if I can get a quadz-level caliber case ready for Naut. I couldn't and decided claiming was better than a weak case.

I never believe in gambits as town - scum yes - but I've never lied in my claims as town, ever.

ooba · Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:14 am

Lol, I'm hardly sure of *any* read to gambit as town. Nobody's 100% sure of their reads and it's stupid to get another townie that you scum read and yourself lynched. It derails the entire game.

Interesting defence (I would at least try and get me lynched first IMO) but I would never do that as town.

ooba · Sun Dec 08, 2013 8:46 pm

It was pretty moronic play but yes, I fakeclaimed yesterday to get kanye lynched. My apologies to both kanye and the town for the boneheaded move.

I my defence, I hadn't slept for 36 hours and paranoia caught up to me. I saw a second scum team and I saw kanye in that scum team - I also convinced myself that we'd lose if we didn't lynch kanye. After the flip, I felt pretty miserable.

I'd be voting Garruk now - but he's already at L-3 and this needs to be discussed by everyone.

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 2:46 am

In post 5406, Nautilius wrote:I'm hammering 24 hours tonight.

I don't know how much credence to lend to Benmage's theory but I'd rather you not hammer two days in a row.

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 5:05 am

In post 5417, Benmage wrote:
In post 5397, Alfred Borden wrote:Fine. I believe Ooba.

Benmage + Nacho is sufficient.
I'd normally hammer about now (Garruk is still hated, yes?) but somebody else can.
What are you doing... its L-3.. You can vote now. You should not hammer.

Garruk has claimed double-hated.

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 5:58 am

In post 5424, Garruk Relentless wrote:I actually have a theory scum have the ability to temporarily janitorize a flip--for those at home, like DGB's role in ParadoxPrime, except weaponized.

I sooo wanted this to be true after kanye flipped town.

But where did this entire janitorizing theory come from? I mean, why did you segue the discussion to this speculation?

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 6:08 am

Benmage, I will - very soon.

Garruk, looks to me like you're trying to sow doubt into your scum flip. Anyway, Is there anything you would like to tell town in order to help us out before I hammer you?

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 6:16 am

Good game Garruk.

Vote: Garruk

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 7:04 am

Unvote

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 7:30 am

In post 5450, Eddard Stark wrote:
Magua replaces elleheathen. Thank you!

Wow - that's pretty nice replacing into a huge game. Thanks and welcome!

In post 5451, Benmage wrote:My scum games perfect. Read any scum game of mine with the QT... my fakeclaims are one of the first things I make. And They're perfect. SoooOoOOo, like I said, I'm modconfirmed town.

I feel like you're waiting for someone to ask "Why are you modconfirmed town?" so I'll do it.. Why are you modconfirmed town?

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 7:48 am

C) I'm scum faking a guilty (on we'll say town, and not some sort of bus guilty.. that would be real odd at this game stage)

Benmage, your analysis ignores two scum teams..

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 8:02 am

That was anti-climatic

Vote: Garruk

ooba · Tue Dec 10, 2013 8:15 am

In post 5481, Garruk Relentless wrote:
In post 5479, ooba wrote:That was anti-climatic

Vote: Garruk
Do you not find Benmage even in the slightest sketchy?

I do but the only scenario in which I see Benmage fake-claiming\lying is scum vs opposite scum.

Town's not going to pull that stunt so soon after yesterday.

I cant see the motivation for a lone scum team member going for a 1 vs 1 right now.

ooba · Wed Dec 11, 2013 6:16 am

If anyone really needs confirmation as to why Garruk is scum -

this janitor speculation from nowhere

(the answer to my question on this was weak, but you can judge yourselves) is surely scum trying to sow doubts into their upcoming flip...

In post 5424, Garruk Relentless wrote:I actually have a theory scum have the ability to temporarily janitorize a flip--for those at home, like DGB's role in ParadoxPrime, except weaponized. Except that doesn't make sense I guess since there are still two days til LyLo(unless it's a permanent thing, in which case this game is actually bastard and I can wholly wash my hands of this game with no bad thoughts).

ooba · Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:45 pm

In post 5573, Garruk Relentless wrote:
Nautillus
is lying scum about getting my motivate.
Alfred is idiot scum and the main defense of him was by--guess who--Nautillus. I understand the TET thing, really, but that can only take you so far. Don't forget that most of his "protown" case was by Nautillus appealing to said TET masonry thing.

Titus
was roleblocked night three or something--Shadoweh had a good case for Titus-scum.
And then you have one wild card. Look in the fakeguilties+Alchemist for this one.

I ask you again - is there anything you want to tell the town?

ooba · Sat Dec 14, 2013 3:37 pm

Benmage's fake-guilty has scum motivation written all over it.
- I can't say if its 5\1 or 3\3 - but if Benmage got the guilty on opposite scum Garruk right - that's immense towncred and he should have survived till the end
- If he's wrong about Garruk, he can always hide behind self-meta of fake-guilties or can always say 'so did ooba'

He needs to die today.

Vote: Benmage

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 12:21 am

In post 5613, SafetyDance wrote:Lynch All Liars, may as well start with first and worst.

Magua - this is why.

As scum, he puts himself in the same bucket as me - aka if people push him for his fake guilty - all he and his scum buddies have to do is to point fingers at "ooba did it too".

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 12:35 am

In post 5621, Nautilius wrote:Ooba, you need to drop the hell out of your two scumteam theory until evidence of it arises.

You want evidence of the two scumteams - you lynch Benmage. Not my fault both teams can't crosskill properly.

Night 2 - macmollie killed
Night 4 - blocked by Titus
Night 6 - AGar killed
Night 8 - Tierce killed

Night 1 - BP eaten up by Tierce
Night 3 - ???
Night 5 - ??? (blocked by Agar?)
Night 7 - Tammy killed

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 3:57 am

In post 5634, SafetyDance wrote:After solid days of plays, Reads!Ooba kinda turned into Theories!Ooba, didn't he?

Glad you're admitting to having no evidence for this theory.

My two scum team theory is backed up by my reads - but "I cannot see another 4 Chaos scum in the remaining 13" is hardly evidence.

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 4:01 am

In post 5632, Shadoweh wrote:idc if everyone claims. The guy who tracked a town with no other actions to the nightkill should fullclaim.

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 4:21 am

Regarding stopping my reads after Quadz died:
- I opposed the PnJ lynch
- I thought the Goat 1vs1 was the worst thing. I called it Town vs Town

Sure on two I have
- SpyreX's final statements "You know who you are"
- Quadz going a 1:1 on you when he claiming cop would have allowed him to live longer and not hasten his demise
- And a series of attacks on various people that seemed to stem from inside knowledge and not well thought out reads.
But all that is not "hard" evidence.

But Benmage = scum does not need two scum teams - it works well with 6/0 too.

Motivations:

- I lied to get a lynch when I had led two lynches on scum, had generally been good with other town reads (see above) - there's no reason as scum to stick my head out to get kanye lynched - If scum, I would just lie low and win at LyLo with my superlative play\bussing on SpyreX & Quadz
- Benmage on the other hand - gets a clear mislynch - because he can always hide behind his stupid meta and he\his scum partners can claim "let's go after ooba first"

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 4:39 am

In post 5639, Titus wrote:Must resist urge to vote ooba.
FoS ooba

Your motivations section is a bunch of wifom.
Garruk had a huge benefit to the town, and a group of people whosaid it was impossible. Iven your certainty you were sane, I figured one of them had to be lying. I would be taking this easier if you started postulating insanity given your wild theories. Yet that doesn't cross your mind.

Your who first point is look at me. I agressively went after two scums. At least quadz was freaking obvious.

I don't understand the entire second paragraph. What does Garruk have to do with me? And what is this about sanities? Are you saying Benmage is insane??

My motivation point is to highlight my play vs Benmage and which one makes sense as scum. Mine doesn't.

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 4:47 am

Benmage, who are the 4 scum?

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 5:33 am

In post 5653, SafetyDance wrote:So after all this lengthy discussion on how it was possible that kanye could be bussing quadz and it was totally possible, you are trying to ride the coat-tails of getting two scum lynched?

Other people can read D3-D4 and figure out if I'm scum.

I don't need balls to say you're scum because it's the same thing I've been saying from D4...
ISO 91 - D4

Evil: SafetyDance-Messiah-Nacho
Chaos: SpyreX-Quadz-?

20% chance of Dual scum teams - Refer theory

To Kanye...

I said lynching Safety Dance first was a equally valid move as long as Quadz was lynched D5. And we both know that would have turned out better for town.

SafetyDance, useless for four days and turns up when his partner is about to get lynched. And after Tammy, who wanted him dead is killed. /coincidence?

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 5:44 am

In post 5647, Benmage wrote:And it could be:
Everyone else.

Ok - say AB is scum. Let's discuss everyone else:

Zdenek Titus

- Reading D3 alone will tell you why he cannot be SpyreX's partner. This was spyreX's push when he was being wagoned. When it was obvious spyreX was going to get lynched, Zednek suddenly unvotes breaking the mutual bus they had the entire day and all the eventual-town-cred that had been built up once SpyreX was lynched?

SafetyDance

- Quadz went 1:1 with SD. If you consider a scum-bus, SafetyDance would have been more "He's scum" instead of "we both are town". Plus Quadz would have never backed down and just gone after him, knowing SD would look better after his flip.

Nautilius (Nacho/Ellibereth)

- He literally drove the SpyreX and Quadz lynches to completion. Didn't look like a late bus - he practically turned around the SpyreX lynch when it was going to be Alchemist.

Shadoweh

- Could be Chaos but that's kind of WIFOMy play on calling SpyreX 'sure to flip town' and making herself look worse for it.

Messiah Complex (Desperado/Formerfish)

- Strong non-bus looking vote on SpyreX but the "let's not lynch Quadz or SD" for now looks bad (actually I'd say scum partners would be careful NOT to say that to an obvious Quadz lynch but not too sure) - Could be Chaos

The Alchemist

- Could be Chaos

I still have town reads on Naut, Shadoweh - both are unlikely Chaos. Give me people for 2.3.4.

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 5:52 am

In post 5663, Benmage wrote:
In post 5661, ooba wrote:Give me people for 2.3.4.
Give me 1-4.

Sure.

Chaos - SpyreX, Quadz, Alfred
(1)

Evil (or) Second scum team
(2,3,4)
- Benmage, SD, Messiah

Your team narrowed it down to Garruk & Alfred as the remaining opposite scum yesterday. You choose Garruk knowing you could always try and weasel your way out of it even if wrong.
Lynching Alfred today would put your team in a nearly unbeatable position because I can see the mislynches of any two of {TA, Magua, Shadoweh, ooba}.

And if you're "boohoo no two scum teams. that's shit" - then give me names for Alfred + 3 remaing Chaos scum that make sense to you.

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:01 am

In post 5665, Benmage wrote:
Dear Faraday

Ooba thinks the game is still 2 scum teams.

Did you balance for that?

There's nothing to say it's not a odd one team-even one team night killing scum teams.

At least, I'm thinking about the game in the right terms. We have 11 people and 4 scum. That's 2 mislynches if it's just Chaos. Alfred + 3 people isn't going to cut dice - you give reads now as complete teams - who are the other three scum partners.

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:06 am

Good lord. One team kills on odd nights, one on even nights - some amount of crosskill protection\rbing involved.

Night 2 - macmollie killed
Night 4 - blocked by Titus
Night 6 - AGar killed
Night 8 - Tierce killed

Night 1 - BP eaten up by Tierce
Night 3 - ???
Night 5 - ??? (blocked by Agar?)
Night 7 - Tammy killed

^Anyway I'll bite with the other four "if only Chaos" reads

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:14 am

In post 5673, Magua wrote:@ooba: Was serious asking about why we should treat Benmage's fake-guilty different from yours. Want this thought process.

Sure. Look back at the two fake guilties.
- I claimed on D7 to get kanye lynched.
- Benmage claimed on D8 to get Garruk lynched.

Both of us were under no pressure and the claims on each day came out of no-where. However Benmage is different from mine because:
His fake guilty came second.
-

As town, he really just saw one fake guilty to atrocious results and decides to replicate it?

- As scum, he has two things going for him - (a) his fake-meta of previous behaviour (b) the fact that he was second and knew he'd be placing himself with me

ooba · Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:16 am

In post 5678, Magua wrote:In post 5674, ooba wrote:
Good lord. One team kills on odd nights, one on even nights - some amount of crosskill protection\rbing involved.

1) Have you ever seen a game with this setup where the teams did not win together?

2) How do you imagine this works if one team is eliminated?

None that I can remember. If one team gets eliminated, the other team gets to kill on all nights.