Newbie 1433 - Game Over

[archaebob]

Indeed, Ranawey, I think I'll vote for you, just in case.

VOTE: Ranawey

Nervous much? Glad to see scum blundering this early.

vote SatanHellYeah

[archaebob]

@ Satan -

You said I'll vote for you "just in case." Just in case of what?

[archaebob]

@ SatanHellYeah -

I'm giving you exactly

one

chance to prove your innocence. I want a paragraph-length read of every player who has posted so far. I don't care if they've only posted once, or if you think you know next to nothing about them. I'm looking for the feeblest, most spontaneous, most honest gut reactions you can give me. Reach into your psyche and spit out the truth. Pick

something

about everyone and write about it. Minimum 3-4 sentences each. Also, label them as probably town or probably scum, based on your best guess so far.

If you're town, do NOT try to calculate your response based on what you think the town wants to hear. Just be completely honest, even if you think it might look bad. Trust me.

If you're scum, good look pretending that you've taken the above advice.

Also, if you argue with the prompt I've given you for any reason I can promise you that your ass is grass. Comply first, and ask questions after.

@ everyone else -

DO NOT

comment on or make reference to the request I just made of SatanHellYeah until AFTER he responds to it. We don't want to taint his answers. This is extremely important, for reasons I'll be more than happy to explain afterwards.

[archaebob]

@ Satan -

Is Skelda town or scum? You didn't say.

[archaebob]

Sorry. I thought I made it clear. I strongly think Skelda is scum.

Then why aren't you voting for him?

[archaebob]

@ everyone - If you haven't already, read the following two articles. They will

drastically

improve your play. They are written by two of the most successful players here, and contain points which are particularly important for people just starting out.

A Beginner's Guide to Being Awesome at Mafia

A Beautiful Guide to Focusing on Scum and Getting them Lynched

[archaebob]

Note: Don't try to imitate Rampage if you aren't at a point where you feel secure in your reads. The point isn't to put on a show. It's to recognize that the game is won with focus, confidence, and clarity. Think carefully about these ideas and figure out how they are best interfaced with your own personality and level of experience.

[archaebob]

unvote vote Skelda

[archaebob]

What do you think about 2Pac and Null?

I'll tell you on page 12.

[archaebob]

I need a lot more content from the SEs.

@ 2Pac -

Please use your natural voice. When you filter everything through a persona, it removes a lot of important information from your posts. Think about it this way: the mafia are playing a character because they have to. By adopting a character when you are town, you put yourself in the same psychological category as them. One of our biggest responsibilities as town is to

look like town

so that we don't distract discussion, and so that the other town players can use process of elimination to greater effect. Sincerity is important. Tone is everything. These are muddied by affected writing styles. Personally, I'm a huge fan of Pac and have found your posts entertaining, so don't take this the wrong way. However, in the long run the schtick is hurtful to the town, so if you're serious about winning please let it go. I will interpret continuation as deliberately anti-town and suspicious.

@ Ranawey -

Scum are caught because in certain situations town does one thing and scum does another. In your mind, what are these situations, what is the difference in behavior, and why?

[archaebob]

@ Ran -

Think out loud. You will find it instructive. I'm pushing you towards a more sophisticated understanding of the game.

Let's start simpler. What are the differences between town and scum when the game starts? There are exactly two, and I want you to point them out.

[archaebob]

Scum are distinguished from town by exactly three attributes:

1) Objective
2) Information
3) Number

I misspoke when I said there were two.

The objective of town is to successfully identify the alignment of each player in the game, and secure the lynch of those who are scum. Since they begin the game with no knowledge of the roles, they find themselves in an environment extremely hostile to these ends. Thus, town are in a position where in order to win they have to generate as much information as possible about each player, before forcefully arguing for the lynches they can never be %100 confident in. In order to get these lynches through, they have to cooperate with players they have few reasons to trust, but are generally more likely to be town than otherwise. Also, the town outnumber the mafia by quite a bit, meaning the cost of an individual town person dying will in most cases be much less than the cost of an individual mafioso dying.

The objective of scum is to prevent the town from successfully identifying them, and redirect the lynch to people who are actually town. Since they begin the game fully cognizant of the roles (at least with respect to town-aligned versus non-town aligned), scum can only win by making arguments they know to be false. Thus, in order to win scum have to prevent as much information from being generated as possible, as they agree with and argue in favor of reasoning that in the back of their heads they know to be wrong. They also do not have much incentive to go above and beyond, because everything they post risks a misstep, and all they really have to do is avoid the lynch. At first, with almost zero information and a large number of townies to mislynch, this is not a terrifying prospect. However, the only way they can avoid the lynch for long is by successfully

simulating

the objectives, access to information, and confidence in numbers of the town.

A couple things we can note here that follow directly from these differences:

- Town will tend to want more information rather than less, more activity rather than less, and more transparency from the players who are not them rather than less. After all, they don't know the answer to the puzzle, and victory depends on figuring it out.
- Town will tend to be insecure in their reads, because in most cases they cannot ever actually know for certain that they have chosen correctly. This insecurity will

not

necessarily manifest itself in nervousness or indecisiveness, as many town players (experienced and inexperienced alike) present their reads confidently as a tactic or as part of their personality. However, in most cases a basic uncertainty will show up elsewhere - they'll keep combing the thread, they'll keep asking questions, they'll keep up the pressure on whoever they've voted for in the hope of information that will confirm their read of the game. They'll never get this confirmation, and the paranoia will never truly leave.
- Town will tend to be less concerned than mafia when suspicion is directed at them. This is because 1) they

know

that they are town, and 2) dying is not as catastrophic to their win condition as it is for a mafioso (PRs complicate this a little). As a result of this, town tends to be bolder, more determined, and less taken aback by minor things.

- Scum will tend to contradict itself. This is because they do not actually have opinions. Only goals. Since their beliefs are simulated, they require effort to maintain.
- Scum will tend to over-explain. In the back of their head they know their reasoning is fabricated. Fear of discovery leads them to paste things over with excess contingencies and justifications.
- Scum will tend to hide behind logic. Scum

love

logic because it works the same way for them as it does for town. It's easy to come up with an airtight rationale for doing just about anything. It's

not

easy to fake a fluid and impulsive gut read. That requires real skill, and scum avoid doing it when they can.
- Scum will tend to lurk. The less they post, the less they have to fabricate, the less they slip. Also, they don't actually care about solving the puzzle, so when they feel confident about things politically, they don't have the same incentive to show up after hours.
- Scum will tend to tunnel. It's easy. Also, if an ineffective player provides a plausible enough reason for being suspected, scum can minimize their risk by leaving their vote parked in one place and justifying it repeatedly instead of making more unstable plays.

Of course, none of these tells will work universally, and when they do make their appearance, it's not always in the way you would expect. For example, it's a common scum tactic to feign being totally confident by going to the opposite extreme (i.e. brushing off attacks sarcastically). It takes a smart town player to see through this smoke-screen and identify it as a another type of nervousness. Similar things apply to everything I've said above.

This is worth taking a step further. You can usefully think of everything I've written above as the "Tier 1" of mafia psychology. It's the obvious, essential core of mafia; the ultimate cause of all differences in behavior between town and scum. However, in order to get to "Tier 2" you have to take into account the fact that the scum is aware of Tier 1 and is actively trying to avoid making those tells. For example, you call this a Tier 2 tell: "scum knows that town is suspicious of tunneling, so they tend to go out of their way to post about

everyone

". Then Tier 3 is when the scum has taken steps to account for Tier 2, and you're off! You're now spiraling indefinitely up the WIFOM ladder, never to return.

The short answer: What good scum-hunters are looking for more than any one specific thing is insincerity. Exaggerations, distortions, manipulations. You're trying to find calculated, self-conscious, over-confident, or lazy play that is not easily explainable by the poster's apparent personality. You have to form a model of the person you are reading based on their personality, and then contrast that model with what they are doing. Then you have to trust your gut. It's really that simple.

[archaebob]

I suspected Skelda because his posts seemed plodding and calculated. He is no longer a priority because 1) meta-research has revealed a plodding, calculated writing style, and

2)

I don't see my vote moving off 2Pac or me contributing much

until he cuts out his shtick. I'm here to play mafia, not read bad rap parodies.

Lazy, unhelpful, and you know better. This is a newbie game. We aren't going to get the play styles we want every time. 2Pac is just like any another stubborn moron who wanders on this site, plays stupidly and infuriatingly for a game, and then disappears. There's thousands of these guys, and we can't just policy lynch all of them and expect to win. Your vote reads like a plausible way to keep your vote parked on someone while you avoid the difficult work of pretending to scumhunt.

unvote vote: Nominull

[archaebob]

Nominull is using his annoyance with 2Pac as an excuse to avoid posting other content. Look at his iso. He hasn't said a word about anyone else. Not only that, but he doesn't intend to unless 2Pac drops the schtick. Well, how is that supposed to work? 2Pac isn't going to stop, you can tell. So what's Nominull's theory exactly? That because he has a legitimate complaint about someone's play style, he should not be expected to post

any

substantive content for a potentially indefinite period of time?

Picture for a moment you are scum. What could possibly be a more comfortable strategy than that?

[archaebob]

Firstly, you guys should really have votes up. I know it's counter-intuitive to vote for people before you feel completely certain they are scum. However, it has been discovered over the course of many years of continuous play that town does better when everyone stakes out a position. It gives us more information, more urgency, more reactions. Pick your current top suspect and tag them with your vote. Use that pressure as leverage to get answers to your questions. Don't fret; nobody's going to quick lynch. If they do, we'll have our first scum. Right now the timidity is hurting us.

Now, everyone please pay attention:

New rule: you can't say why something's scummy unless you can say why it's not townie. Oh oops that's content, I wasn't supposed to be posting any until 2Pac started to play for real. My apologies.

Stupid, invalid point. I laid out a narrative for why Nominull's play hurts town and is comfortable for scum. Because it is scummy, it is not townie. This is obvious. I'm not going to get into a logical tug of war with him beyond this.

The second sentence about posting content is a cute line, but we should take note of the fact that it is still

not

content because it doesn't involve his reaction to other players. It's also exaggerated in its glibness. "Look at me, I'm

soooo

not intimidated by you, archaebob. Let me prove it by showing you just how confident and snarky I can be."

Ask yourself: does he really have a legitimate reason to insist on his stance like this? He still hasn't posted any reads. In fact, he hasn't even said 2Pac is

scummy

. Just that he's annoying, and we should policy lynch him.

"Annoyed at 2Pac for his dumbass gimmick" is a pretty easy town motivation for scum to hide in the shadow of. That's why 2Pac shouldn't provide it.

I agree that 2Pac provides this opportunity to scum. However, it's interesting that Nominull says this when right now he is the

only

player taking that opportunity. His entire play has basically been to say he's annoyed at 2Pac for his dumbass gimmick, and to do

literally nothing else

. How's that for hiding in the shadow of a plausible town motivation? Using his own reasoning, that makes him the most likely candidate for scum.

And frankly, I've started to find 2Pac entertaining and helpful. His schtick is not an ideal way to play, but he's certainly done more to put his reads out there and help town than some other players. Infinitely more than Nominull.

[archaebob]

I'm at L-2?

Also, I can't believe you just actually tried to hammer me before even getting a response or a claim from me. This is fucking insane.

VOTE: archaebob
for playing the IC in lieu of scumhunting. Plus his quick reversal on 2pac and the early push on satan look like scum looking for an easy wagon.

In what universe have I been ICing in lieu of scumhunting? I made exactly one post of theory which I felt was needed, and which at least one of the newbs here found helpful. Everything else I've done has been actively voting and pressuring. I'm in a slow-moving game full of a lot of clueless people and I'm trying to make things happen. Do you actually take issue with any of my stances, or are you just belligerently and hilariously deluded?

I re-read the game from the start a couple of time, just to realize one thing: archie has been trying to get people lynched for a while. First it was me, with some kind of stupid explanation about me being nervous. The he voted Skelda, just after I did, because maybe he realized I was not getting lynched for now. Then, quickly, he switched his vote towards Nominull. But, the thing is that Nominull does not look scummy to me. He got annoyed by 2pac's sick rhymes, but hey, not everyone likes it. But, it's true I'll be glad to see his reads.
And archie just insists. Somehow, all of this makes me put my FoS on you @archie , and so, my vote.

Satan, think about what you're saying. If I was trying to get people lynched, why would I switch wagons as much as I have? I'm not seriously trying to get

anyone

lynched right now. Day 1's are usually at least 15 - 20 pages. I'm pressuring people, asking questions, getting reactions. Trying to generate information for the town. I do this in ALL my games, and fyi, it's what most experienced players do. It's expected from town. It's part of what you're supposed to learn how to do in a newbie game.

Look at my play. Do I look someone trying to smuggle a lynch through? Or do I look like someone trying push some buttons and figure out the answer to the riddle? I think I'm being way too loud for the first one.

@ Skelda - I have no idea why you're voting for me. I get that you think 2Pac is scummy. I don't. I think he's being stupid. Stupid =/= scum. Think about it; his username is 2Pac. He was clearly planning to play this way regardless of what role he got. And in any case, why does me disagreeing with you about this make

me

scum? I think it's suspicious that Nominull has parked his vote on someone and is refusing to give any other reads. Don't you?

@ everyone -

Typically, in early Day 1 the play is to pressure people who aren't posting enough and aren't staking out positions, and then later in the Day you have a big debate about who is likely to be scum based on everything that has been posted. You don't lynch before at least page 12, after a long day of healthy and productive discussion. That way you have enough information to actually make an informed choice. You never lynch on page 7, and you

never

lynch before asking for a claim.

unvote vote sthar8

for the most explicitly anti-town maneuver I've ever seen in a game.

[archaebob]

Look man in a game like this I have no way of knowing when something's a gambit, and I don't have the luxury of just letting things go. Newbie Games are notoriously volatile, and in a town where two people have votes on me and actually think I'm the best lynch today is a town where

anything

is possible.

Do what you gotta do, but whatever it is, please don't fuck it up. I've only been mislynched once in my entire career, and I'd like to keep it that way.

unvote vote Nominull

[archaebob]

@ Satan -

That's fine. If your gut read on me is scum, then I applaud you for getting a vote up and sticking to it. I'm just making sure you understand what the site meta dictates for early Day 1, and that my pattern of forcefully pressuring people lines up with it, in terms of what I'm physically doing with my vote. I don't have a problem if your read of me goes deeper. I was getting a little anxious last page of an impending flash wagon, and for that reason felt compelled to vehemently push back against everyone voting for me.

There's no real skill level qualification for playing as IC. Experience is required, and presumably you get better with experience, but the point of the IC is to provide someone who's familiar with the mechanics and social norms of how the game is played on the site for people to refer to, not necessarily to provide someone who's so amazing at the game they'll automatically win for whatever side they're on. That'd be no fun, after all.

You're articulate. Interesting. So maybe I get it then. You need to give me

something

though. I'm not looking to waste my time, but I don't have license to simply move on when you're explicitly violating the norms that newbie games are designed to instill. In the world of entry-level mafia play we're supposed to lynch you if you don't post anything.

@ TheFuzzyLogic -

What do you think of Ranawey?

@ Ranawey -

What do you think of TheFuzzyLogic?

[archaebob]

Right that's fine but you can still contribute elsewhere. It's one thing to support a policy lynch, and it's another thing to use your support for a policy lynch as a reason to not give reads. In fact, much of the criticism of policy lynches is that it encourages that type of play and reduces town info. Think about it. If we live in a world where supporting policy lynches is an accepted part of the meta,

and

there's no expectation that you post other reads while supporting that policy lynch, then what conceivable risk is there to the scum? Just pick a policy lynch, justify it on easily defended logical grounds ("anti-town hurts town"), and then coast through the game. I'm fine with you taking a hard line stance against hurtful play, but I'm not fine with you clamming up. There's no town motivation for it. Right now I think you are

much

more of a problem than 2Pac, who though annoying, has actually posted reads in a semi-transparent fashion.

[archaebob]

Oh I was the MOST panicky. I wouldn't put it past this town to quick hammer based on what I've seen so far.

[archaebob]

@ Nominull -

So now you're trolling. Great. I'm sure you realize

any

semblance of moral high ground you may have had against 2Pac evaporates completely.

@ Skelda -

Let's see if we can get a couple things straight here.

2Pac is not helpful! His posting style is pointless, makes it difficult to read him, and makes it difficult to figure out his posts. Maybe a 2Pac-Archie scumteam?

VOTE: Archaebob. I don't know why you are deciding that a newbie employing a strategy that hurts the town and distracts players is helpful, but it isn't and 2Pac should stop.

1) *holds up IC card* (I'm not

the

IC here, but I still am one)

You're insane if you think you can call the scum team through associative tells on page 10. Nobody, and I mean

nobody

can do that. I don't expect you to fully embrace that realization until you've been smacked around by this game a couple times, but take what I'm saying seriously. The idea that scum-archaebob would be voting for Nominull simply to defend scumbuddy 2Pac is wayyyyy too simple an argument to actually catch scum. Recognize the complexity of this game. For all you know I'm voting for Nominull because

he's

my buddy, and I'm setting it up so that when you kill me and I flip scum he'll be cleared. Or maybe 2Pac

is

my buddy, but I'm expecting people to say "oh man there's no way archaebob would ever use a chainsaw defense, he's too experienced" so I'm banking on the WIFOM coin to land my way. Or maybe I'm town, and I don't actually think Nominull is scummy at all, but am pulling a gambit to draw out somebody else who I think is overconfident. You have no idea, and there's millions of possibilities. I fully encourage you to follow your top suspect to the best of your ability, but try to dig deeper with your analysis.

The possibilities I see are...
Fuzzy-Bob
2Pac-Ranawey
Ranawey-Fuzzy
Fuzzy-2Pac

Same thing applies to all of this noise. You will be sorely and consistently disappointed until you learn this. Focus on one player at a time, and hunt them based on their demeanor and their choices, not some hypothetical relationship you think you see between them and someone else.

^ Really the truth. I mean it. See, I'm holding up my IC card, which means I'm not allowed to lie.

I feel like scum are convincing well-meaning townies to vote Nomni because he is being stubborn and trying to get rid of a behavior that is detrimental to the town's win. He has by no means great play, but there is a difference between disliking something and using your vote and persistence to make it stop, and scumminess. You guys need to see that.

Why don't you apply that same reasoning to me?

I'm honestly confused about what you're complaint with me is. You're saying that I shouldn't be voting for Nominull, and that my support of his wagon is scummy. You disagree with Nominull's 2Pac vote, but you don't think Nominull is scummy for having made it, because you agree with Nominull that 2Pac is unhelpful.

So...why doesn't that logic work for myself and Ranawey? You seem to agree with me that Nominull is unhelpful. Yet somehow my voting for Nominull is scum-motivated, while Nominull voting for 2Pac is benign. This strikes me as a double standard that I would like you to explain.

[archaebob]

* your

[archaebob]

@Nominull
You attitude is unacceptable. Townies must help each other. It is no good, what you're doing. I have tried to think about some kind of twisted strategy you might be following, but I can't help but to find your behavior really unhelpful.

And yet you think I'm scummy for taking things a step further and actually pressuring him to change with my vote.

I don't think neither 2pac or Ranawey are scum. Fuzzy is right now under pressure, or he should be, so I'll wait until he gives some more info. Bob is, for me, totally scummy.
So, I don't care. But I'd rather get Bob instead of Nominull.

So you'd rather get me, the active player who is responsible for generating a lot of the content so far in this game, than Nominull, the uncooperative troll. Why exactly? What did I do to impinge on your scumdar so severely? You aren't seriously still accusing me of trying to quick lynch people, are you? Pay attention.

Everything

I've done has resulted in discussion which has created information about how people are thinking. I'd even go so far as to say that as an instigator, I've provided more information to the town than anyone else. I challenge you to quote a post I've made that has hurt the town, or that in any way suggests I'm scum motivated. I find your blind insinuations lazy and opportunistic, and the "I don't care" comment doesn't do you any favors either.

@ everyone -

With his willingness to troll openly, Nominull has now joined 2Pac in the category of "I have a deliberately unhelpful playstyle for reasons that don't really seem scum motivated." Their play is hurting town discussion, but they aren't actually more likely to be scum than anyone else. Which means we now have to make a choice. We can take a hard line against their play and wagon them up to L-1, hoping that will pressure them to change, or we can just ignore them and hope that they either aren't scum, will eventually improve, or will eventually be replaced. Personally, I think it's a huge mistake to lynch anti-town but not scummy on Day 1 unless the game is really bogged down and atrocious. The flip is less revealing, and it's a conversation suck that makes the town environment more amenable to scum. At a certain point it may be necessary to lynch an anti-town player if he or she remains unreadable, (particularly if someone like Nominull decides to troll for multiple days), but right now there are better things we can do with our time.

unvote vote FuzzyLogic

Get the pressure

ohhhhnnnn

. Oh yeah baby. Le'ts get it on.

Case and questions coming.

[archaebob]

@ Ranawey -

Yeah, he might be. But you have to admit right now it's null. Look at his posts. He's articulate. He's deliberately trolling. That means his behavior comes from a place of disconnect. This game is some kind of petri dish for him, and he's more interested in putting on a show than in winning. There's nothing we can do about it right now unless you want to sacrifice the entire day to taking him down.

Maybe

if we demonstrate intent to lynch him for it he'd change, but we'd have to mean it. Which means we'd lose the ability to pressure other people. So, I catch your drift, but I think the play is to move on for now.

[archaebob]

Ok Fuzzy is at L-2 nobody else pile on right now.

@ Nominull -

Clamming up and trolling is not taking heroic measures. It's mortgaging your credibility, which makes the discussion about you rather than your cause. As it should be. I don't care how sincere you are in your conviction that we should not suffer 2Pac to live. Believe me, I empathize. The theory is we're working towards a better sitewide-meta, improving the quality of future games, taking a hard line against idiocy, standing up for justice and good fun, etc etc blah blah blah. I could probably be persuaded to follow your lead if this were a mini-normal. But it's not. It's a newbie. Part of the function of these games is to provide an introductory experience for people to learn what works, what doesn't, and whether they are interested in continuing on this site. Most players like 2Pac don't go on to become active members. They play one game and then they are gone. That's the whole point of having this net.

Our job is to accept that we're most likely being thrust into a less than ideal batch of players, and still do our best to win the game. We'll do more to teach and inspire by playing to our win condition than by complaining. You can't make 2Pac change his style. Accept it, move on. It's not fair to the rest of the players here to throw the game because one person is grating against a pet peeve of yours. We're here to train the people with potential. The people who

will

go one to be happy and active members. This is their first experience too, and right now you're setting a worse example for them than 2Pac is.

[archaebob]

Actually, the way archie jumped on fuzzy could be majorly opportunistic scum, since he

seemed so convinced of fuzzy's innocence

until he started getting votes. Thoughts?

When was this? Can you please point out when I was convinced of fuzzy's innocence? I don't remember.

Also, you should probably not blatantly ignore my posts.

[archaebob]

@mod: request replacement. family. so so so sorry.